Latest / Turley Talks / Ep. 4242 CNN PANICS as Host Reads the NEW NUMBERS!!!

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Ep. 4242 CNN PANICS as Host Reads the NEW NUMBERS!!! · Turley Talks

• 0:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: The liberal globalist order is on its brink and awakening a new conservative age.
• 0:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: Dr. Steve Turley, join me every day as we discover answers to today's toughest challenges and explore the re-bondalization of conservative civilization.
• 0:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: This is Turley Talks.
• 0:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: So what happens if we get the exact same polling error this time around?
• 0:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, what happens?
• 0:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: Hello, this is what happens.
• 0:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: We get Republicans actually holding on.
• 0:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: So the question ultimately is, is the polling going to be right this time around?
• 0:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: Or Republicans going to outperform like they have in the past.
• 0:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: If they have Republicans holding on, if the polling is right on, the Democrats had to majority Anderson, I don't know what's going to happen.
• 0:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: really hear the fear in his voice, so that's the anends Harry Antonin admitting openly admitting that the polling that they've been championing for the last two months is a bunch of crap.
• 0:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: If Republicans outperform the polls like they always do,
• 1:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: by just three points.
• 1:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: The Democrats hopes for winning the Senate will be officially dash.
• 1:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: Hey gang, it's me, Dr. Steve, your major professor.
• 1:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: We are now just eight days away from the big day, the 2026 midterms.
• 1:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: Voting has already begun in most states over 20 million people have cast their ballot already.
• 1:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: And so we're getting a good idea of who's coming out to vote.
• 1:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: We're getting a good sense.
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  [SPEAKER_01]: based on past elections of which states look relatively safe for Republicans and which remain competitive.
• 1:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: Take a look at the latest numbers coming out of Florida.
• 1:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they could do the absolutely astronomical.
• 1:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: And I'm going to tell you why Florida is so important for national elections in a moment.
• 1:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: But as of 10 a.m. today, Republicans were out voting Democrats
• 1:57
  [SPEAKER_01]: 15 points I this has been the trajectory since they started in person early voting a week ago last Monday so last week on the first day of in person early voting the Republicans were up just 1% on the second day they were up by four on the third day they were up by eight on the fourth day they were up by 12 and as of today they're already up by
• 2:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: 15 points and it's not even new yet so bottom line.
• 2:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: There's no hope for the Democrats at all at least when it comes to Florida They need at least a 200,000 vote lead in the early voting to even have a prayer to withstand the massive Republican election day turnout if they're losing the early vote statewide come election day I mean, it's it's game over you could stick a fork in it.
• 2:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, Angie
• 2:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: Dixon is done.
• 2:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: She's going to lose by at least 10 points to the incumbent senator Ashley moody David jolly is done.
• 2:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: He's going to be crushed by gubernatorial candidate Republican Byron Donalds now to further confirm that.
• 3:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: We're getting word that the Democrats have pulled money out of two Florida races, two congressional seats they were trying to flip Florida's 7th and it's 25th.
• 3:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: Those seats are gone, they're going full red at this point.
• 3:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now, the key to Florida is that it can actually be a useful directional bell weather for other states like Ohio, Texas, Arizona.
• 3:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: So what that means is that if you're seeing a major Republican turnout in Florida, that often signals similar movement across the Sun Belt and in parts of the Midwest.
• 3:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: Florida and Ohio back the same candidate in 12 or 13 elections.
• 3:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: Texas, match Florida in 10 or 13, Arizona in 9 or 13.
• 4:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: So Florida tends to give us a bit of a window in how the Republican coalition has a whole throughout the nation is holding together.
• 4:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: Again, there can be some evidence of lagging from this like we're about to see in North Carolina with the Democrats appear particularly strong though the Republicans are making up a lot of ground loss there and closing the gap.
• 4:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: But we are seeing some indications of this bell weather effect already.
• 4:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: Take a look at Texas.
• 4:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: Republican Ken Pax in his running for the U.S. Senate seat
• 4:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: As we speak, nearly 20% of Texans have already voted and based on this model, Republicans are leading by three.
• 4:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: They're leading their early vote, 47 to 44.
• 4:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now, keep in mind, Republicans outnumber Democrats by about 20 points on election day.
• 4:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: So again, if past is precedent,
• 4:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: And if the Democrats have any hope, any hope whatsoever winning taxes, they're going to have to build up an enormous lead in the early vote.
• 5:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: And we're just simply not seeing that in fact, it appears they're behind.
• 5:11
  [SPEAKER_01]: To make matters even worse, Travis County, where Austin is.
• 5:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's one of the counties that Talereco needs to come out in super numbers to even hope to win.
• 5:22
  [SPEAKER_01]: They're already showing signs of democratic exhaustion.
• 5:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: As of today, they're down 40% of where they were last Monday, the first day of in person voting.
• 5:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: Bye.
• 5:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: contrast.
• 5:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: If you take Montgomery County, which is a Republican stronghold, it's down by only 20 points from last Monday.
• 5:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: So Republicans continue to demonstrate that nice, consistent, slow but steady approach to in-person early voting that wins the race certainly as that model that we just showed you, suggests, with Republicans in the lead in early voting.
• 5:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: Again,
• 6:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: So there are highest prop voters come out in the first day or two of voting again.
• 6:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: We saw it in Florida, right?
• 6:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: The first day of voting was just Republican lead by 1% and then the second day, 4%.
• 6:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's not necessarily because more Republicans are coming out per se.
• 6:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's because obviously they're all, but it's not, but it's the proportion.
• 6:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: of the vote.
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  [SPEAKER_01]: Democrats are dying.
• 6:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: They are literally disappearing from the voting lines of in person voting because they exhausted all their high-prepensity voters early on.
• 6:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: So known as cannibalizing your vote and look at the latest coming out of Arizona.
• 6:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: This is Maricopa County and remember he wins Maricopa wins Arizona.
• 6:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: Maricopa's three fists in the population of the state.
• 6:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean look at these numbers.
• 6:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: Republicans are coming out as of today with a seven point lead in the in person early voting and with that lay to stop the Republicans have a fixed officially taking the lead in early voting statewide Arizona's perhaps the most relevant state of all for early voting since 80% of their vote
• 7:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: comes in early.
• 7:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now statewide, there's still pretty even.
• 7:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: But as reported last week, reports are coming in that the Democrats gave up on Arizona, too, were Republican Eli Crane is defending his seat.
• 7:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: That was long seen.
• 7:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: as a possible pickup for the Democrats, but apparently not anymore.
• 7:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: They pulled their money from the race and you can see why.
• 7:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: If you take a look at the early voting data coming out of the district, it's basically two to one, Republican 54% to the Democrats, 26%.
• 7:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: But we're not done.
• 7:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: I've got the latest on Ohio and we're finally getting numbers coming out of Alaska, where there's a highly contested Senate race there.
• 7:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's exactly what we're going to see next.
• 7:57
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• 9:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: Here's the latest modeling in Ohio.
• 9:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: So the Democrats are expected to go into election day with an early vote lead of about 6.5 points.
• 9:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: And if you know anything about Republican turnout on election day, especially in Ohio, that's just not going to cut it.
• 9:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: This model is forecasting it by the end of the day next Tuesday.
• 9:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: The electorate in Ohio will be Republican plus 11, Republican plus 10.9.
• 9:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's basically a 17 point shift to the right as a result of the mass GOP turnout we're expecting on election day.
• 10:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: So that means that the Republicans win both the Senate and the governor's mansion in Ohio.
• 10:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: Again, this is a model we'll continue to check in throughout the week to see if any updates have been made.
• 10:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: And if the Republicans are coming out
• 10:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: That means good news for what we're likely to see in Iowa and even Michigan.
• 10:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: Iowa's a lot more red than Michigan.
• 10:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: Iowa's a lot more like Ohio than Michigan is, but Mike Rogers is just crushing it.
• 10:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: Keep in mind, he's got some serious headwinds in Michigan.
• 10:39
  [SPEAKER_01]: Michigan hasn't voted for Republican Center since 1994.
• 10:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: But he is running an exceptional campaign against an exceptionally flawed and ridiculous
• 10:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: and we're also getting word of what's happening in Alaska where the Republican Dan Sullivan is running against the Democrat Mary Petola.
• 11:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: The electorate in Alaska in early voting is estimated to be around plus nine Republican right now.
• 11:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: So it looks very, very good.
• 11:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: uh... it appears we're getting word that the rules just aren't showing up uh... to vote i so if you don't know what's so interesting with the last can electorate it's literally the inversion of the lower forty eight so for for for for all the other states are urban areas
• 11:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: are heavily Democrat in a rural areas are heavily Republican.
• 11:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: For them it's the opposite.
• 11:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: There are urban areas are the Republican strongholds and it's their rules that are Democrat.
• 11:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of Eskimo and native indigenous populations at the Democrats have unfortunately successfully exploited.
• 11:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: to their advantage.
• 11:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: So what we're seeing coming out of Alaska is a very Trumpy, very Republican electorate coming out, which, of course, boats very well for Dan Sullivan, despite their, you know, RCV, this ranked choice voting, which is such an absolute abomination, and the Democrats blatant attempt at stealing votes from Dan by running another candidate and independent with the exact same name.
• 12:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: So there are actually two Dan Sullivan's on the ballot, the fact that this has been allowed is beyond me, but it is deliberate election tampering, but I even more blame them Brazil, and that's saying something.
• 12:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: But I think Dan Sullivan should do just fine, at least at this point from what we're saying.
• 12:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now, I promise you at the beginning of
• 12:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: election season, unfortunately we don't have election day anymore.
• 12:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: We have election season, but when we first started an analyzing the early votes, I promise you that I would be the first one to tell you if I saw any bad news Come in your way.
• 12:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm not just going to give you the good news.
• 12:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to give you some bad as well.
• 12:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: And unfortunately, yes, at least as things stand, we do appear to have lost North Carolina and the Republican Senate seat there being vacated by the Rhino Weasel Tom Tillis.
• 13:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: But just bottom line the Democrat Roy Cooper was a popular governor.
• 13:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, we've mentioned this before.
• 13:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: So if we're going to lose the seat, it's it's going to be North Carolina.
• 13:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, it looks like I mean, I think we could see the riding on the wall eight days out.
• 13:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: uh... he has four times the money uh... uh... micawattly and uh... if you've been following this channel for some time now and if not make sure to smack that bell and subscribe button but you'll know that in congressional senator races the candidate with the most money for right or for wrong wins ninety percent of the time so just
• 13:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: Just in terms of fundamentals, I don't see us keeping this seat.
• 13:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: So again, I could be wrong.
• 13:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'd love to be wrong.
• 13:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: No question.
• 13:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: But at this point then I see us at 52 seats in the Senate.
• 13:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: We're going to lose one.
• 13:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: We're at 53 now.
• 14:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: We'll lose one.
• 14:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: But if Mike Rogers can defy history and flip Michigan's Senate seat, which he is a very good shot at doing, we'll be back to 53.
• 14:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: And if Sinunu and New Hampshire and Michelle Tafoya in Minnesota,
• 14:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: can defy the odds as it were in flip those seats, we could actually be at 55.
• 14:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: There are two congressional seats in North Carolina, Districts 1 and 11.
• 14:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think Republicans are on track of flipping, District 1.
• 14:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: District 1 used to be very Democrat, but it's the district that got redistricted with a far more Republican electorate.
• 14:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's literally Trump double digits electorate now.
• 14:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: District 11 unfortunately is a horse race, it should be an easy seat, but the North Carolina Republican Party had to hand pick a candidate, they had to basically Kamala a candidate after the incumbent Chuck Edwards apparently had to methods issues and had to drop out of the race.
• 15:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: So I still...
• 15:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm leaning on us keeping North Carolina 11 with the early vote gap with the Democrats tightening as we speak, and it should tighten a lot by this week, but if the Democrats are going to flip a seat, it'll be, I think, district 11.
• 15:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: So actually, ironically, we'll just be switching seats.
• 15:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: Democrats normally win district one, and we win district 11, and we'll just flip flop from there.
• 15:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: I would suggest that, you know, just prepare yourself, uh, we are going to see, I believe, the Senate seat loss in North Carolina, and I think we can be cautiously optimistic to pick that seat back up, but in Michigan with Mike Rogers.
• 15:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: But all signs as they stand continue to point to a very, very strong Republican turnout in this early voting that promises to dampen the Democrats hopes from massive blue wave at this point will be looking at little more than a disappointing and pathetic Democrat puddle.
• 16:06
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• 16:35
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