Latest / CRYPTO 101 / Crypto Rundown: Inflation/CPI Report Review...Fed Rate Cuts Coming: How to Prepare For Stock & Crypto Volatility

Transcript

Crypto Rundown: Inflation/CPI Report Review...Fed Rate Cuts Coming: How to Prepare For Stock & Crypto Volatility · CRYPTO 101

0:08
[SPEAKER_05]: Alright everyone, welcome back to the crypto rundown where we talk about everything that's going on in the great world of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology from the fundamentals and the news to the technicals on the charts.
0:22
[SPEAKER_05]: We spend the time doing hours of research so that you all don't have to, and of course we bring it to you completely for free and under an hour.
0:31
[SPEAKER_05]: And we hope all of you are ready.
0:32
[SPEAKER_05]: We are chugging through September.
0:34
[SPEAKER_05]: The crypto market is making a big old push to the upside here, trying to have a bit of a breakout.
0:40
[SPEAKER_05]: And it's September 11th, 2025.
0:42
[SPEAKER_05]: We're glad to have all of you here.
0:43
[SPEAKER_05]: And of course, I could not do this with my good old buddy and co-host, Mr. TVL.
0:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, Mr. Brendan, so excited to be here.
0:52
[SPEAKER_00]: It's an exciting time for the markets.
0:54
[SPEAKER_00]: As always, we just try to put out as much content as possible.
0:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And then in a world mean you kind of talked about a pre show.
1:00
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not something we're going to dive into just to produce.
1:02
[SPEAKER_00]: There's no of, you know, we try to stay current stay on the news.
1:05
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot going on out there, but we just want everybody to know that you come here for crypto news.
1:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, specifically whether it's macro environment or crypto specific.
1:15
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what we stick to.
1:16
[SPEAKER_00]: So even though there's so much news flow out there, we're going to stick to what we know and what we love to do.
1:22
[SPEAKER_00]: We appreciate that everybody joins us weekly.
1:24
[SPEAKER_00]: And we have some new people Ryan was here as always.
1:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Ryan was ready to go like 10 minutes before.
1:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, new com are here, Brendan.
1:32
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't want to ruin his first name.
1:33
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a little different, but I'm going to go for the last name.
1:36
[SPEAKER_00]: We're a let roll.
1:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's say he joined us from Spotify, Spotify brought him.
1:39
[SPEAKER_00]: So man, welcome.
1:41
[SPEAKER_00]: You're in the right place.
1:42
[SPEAKER_00]: He said he's new to this world and trying to be educated.
1:44
[SPEAKER_00]: So again, if you're on the audio, we appreciate that.
1:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Always listen as much as you can on the audio.
1:50
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you do want to check out the YouTube, if you scroll down in our description, you scroll down there, you see all our links for X for YouTube, all that stuff.
1:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, no, we're basically trying to consider ourselves a fun little media network.
2:02
[SPEAKER_00]: So no matter how you want to consume us, we appreciate it.
2:05
[SPEAKER_00]: And we're trying to keep everybody up to date with what's going on.
2:11
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you are new here bottom right like subscribe to the video.
2:14
[SPEAKER_00]: It helps us grow and keep giving you this free awesome content So Brendan I know it's basically it's game time.
2:22
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean I know like we love how we have the jobs data We dove into that we have some inflation to talk about the inflation report came out today We're gonna cover that the end of the episode and then again just tons and tons of nonstop crypto news Gearing us up into the fed rate cut next week.
2:37
[SPEAKER_00]: So what do you see and what do you feel let's break it all down?
2:41
[SPEAKER_05]: yeah i mean we're having a nice day in a nice move across really all of crypto here so i mean if you look at bitcoin bitcoin had a strong day yesterday uh... ended up about two point two percent today it's green another almost half a percent uh... we have a theory of moving back to the upside over forty four hundred green two percent on the day lawn hitting its highest point since january of this year as it pushes above two hundred and twenty seven dollars it's a nice really good thing to see
3:10
[SPEAKER_05]: I think we mentioned this earlier in the week, but we have seen Solana kind of outperforming a lot of its awkward counterparts.
3:18
[SPEAKER_05]: So that's interesting.
3:19
[SPEAKER_05]: We're continuing to see that.
3:20
[SPEAKER_05]: And then a handful of other altcoins, again, just kind of continuing to do well.
3:24
[SPEAKER_05]: The market generally green across the board.
3:28
[SPEAKER_05]: So we're kicking things off.
3:29
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, pretty solid here.
3:30
[SPEAKER_05]: And so let's just move into a screen share.
3:32
[SPEAKER_05]: Let's look at the charts and see what's going on.
3:34
[SPEAKER_05]: I know people tend to care about price acts in the most.
3:38
[SPEAKER_05]: but we want to mention a lot of the catalysts that are going alongside this as well.
3:42
[SPEAKER_05]: So, I mean, here's that chart for Bitcoin.
3:45
[SPEAKER_05]: We talked about this big trend line that it's had an area that was its previous all-time highs turned into support in here.
3:52
[SPEAKER_05]: We fell through the level rejected it a couple of times and now we're starting to push back up because what we were seeing is like the early signs of a pivot.
4:02
[SPEAKER_05]: where instead of seeing like lower lows, lower highs, lower lows, lower highs, we started seeing a shift in that short-term trend, where we were breaking to steady levels of highs up in here, right?
4:14
[SPEAKER_05]: The same level of highs instead of lower highs.
4:17
[SPEAKER_05]: And then we were seeing climbing levels of support instead of lower lows.
4:20
[SPEAKER_05]: So we started to see a little bit of a shift happening in here, and that's one of the things that we've been talking about over here as a team internally.
4:28
[SPEAKER_05]: And with this, I mean, we're getting what looks to be like a full blown pivot so far.
4:33
[SPEAKER_05]: And we're breaking above that 20-day moving average and we're retesting the 50-day moving average.
4:38
[SPEAKER_05]: And I think after we crack here, I don't see much stopping Bitcoin from going back towards, you know, that level above 120 k, right?
4:47
[SPEAKER_05]: The all-time high level around 123, 124.
4:50
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't see a lot stopping it if it can break here.
4:53
[SPEAKER_05]: So if we can get a breakout of here,
4:55
[SPEAKER_05]: Very little, in my opinion, stopping Bitcoin from going back to at least 122, 123, 124, then you're going to have a little bit more resistance.
5:04
[SPEAKER_05]: But what we're looking at now is again, a break-and-downwards structure.
5:08
[SPEAKER_05]: the shift happening back to the upside we're breaking through the 20 and last time we rejected around this 50 so I don't want to like say that this level is insignificant it's not this is like the last real level before I think we can push back to all-time highs but we know that we've had trouble around the 50 day moving in the last time we kind of saw the break below the rejection of this and then the continuation downwards so now I'm looking at this and saying okay you know this
5:36
[SPEAKER_05]: This used to be an area of support, you know, we kind of saw that for the most part, you know, few little breaks below here and there, but we kind of have come to this level and balance and seeing buying opportunities until recently.
5:47
[SPEAKER_05]: So I want to see see this area conquered.
5:49
[SPEAKER_05]: I want to see Bitcoin back above 115k and after that, I think it's a, you know, a pretty clear shot to move higher.
5:56
[SPEAKER_05]: So it's the number one thing that I'm watching out for over here to really nice break of resistance so far.
6:01
[SPEAKER_05]: We're getting a back above that key trend in resistance around 1213k and that's the big thing to watch out for moving forward with that we're seeing Bitcoin dominance.
6:13
[SPEAKER_05]: You know, stay pretty, pretty bearish.
6:16
[SPEAKER_05]: Stay towards the downside.
6:18
[SPEAKER_05]: Bitcoin dominance has been falling.
6:19
[SPEAKER_05]: We'll talk about this a little bit later on.
6:21
[SPEAKER_05]: You know, altcoin season has been heating up.
6:24
[SPEAKER_05]: We're seeing altcoin start to outperform Bitcoin.
6:28
[SPEAKER_05]: And the Bitcoin dominant chart is just showing, hey, that's a continuation here.
6:32
[SPEAKER_05]: And you see it on the day where Bitcoin's up a quarter of a person and Ethereum and Salana are up well over one person.
6:38
[SPEAKER_05]: So you know, they're doing four or five times the move.
6:41
[SPEAKER_05]: That Bitcoin's doing to the upside,
6:44
[SPEAKER_05]: Now, if we actually go when we look at these charts, when we look at Ethereum, and we look at Solana, Solana looks slightly different than Bitcoin, slightly better, where instead of forming kind of lower lows and lower highs, like Bitcoin was doing, Solana just pulled back and then just barcoded for the last two weeks, Steve, though.
7:03
[SPEAKER_05]: And so we could see since like the end of August, it's just been up, down, up, down, up, down, like every single day.
7:10
[SPEAKER_05]: And yesterday was a little bit scary because we came back up here and had a big rejection, but it's all getting bought back up and the buyers are coming in quite aggressively on Ethereum.
7:21
[SPEAKER_05]: And so we have this barcode formation.
7:25
[SPEAKER_05]: And you know, when I look at this,
7:29
[SPEAKER_05]: One of the big things that I noticed is like, again, we held the 50.
7:32
[SPEAKER_05]: We held higher highs this entire time.
7:34
[SPEAKER_05]: We're not seeing lower lows.
7:36
[SPEAKER_05]: And so there is still a little bit more strength in Ethereum.
7:38
[SPEAKER_05]: Now, despite it's still not kind of breaking the trend to the upside.
7:42
[SPEAKER_05]: like we're starting this seat bit coin deal.
7:45
[SPEAKER_05]: You know, Ethereum is still showing some strength.
7:47
[SPEAKER_05]: So it's a very tight range in between like $42.50 and around $4,500 about a $250 worth of the sideways range.
7:57
[SPEAKER_05]: And I think as soon as we break you that that 20 or 50 day moving average and close above those two levels right here and here, I think that's kind of the signal of like, hey, we're probably gonna see continuation in one way or to the other.
8:10
[SPEAKER_05]: Now, a break at the upside would lead us to all-time highs.
8:13
[SPEAKER_05]: All-time high resistance around 4,800, just above that area.
8:17
[SPEAKER_05]: I think that's next stop and then probably above 5K after that.
8:21
[SPEAKER_05]: To the downside, if we do kind of get this move and for whatever reason we break down, there's going to be a little bit of support around 4,100.
8:28
[SPEAKER_05]: I think the big support is going to come in around 3,800, and that's where we're going to see some big buying levels.
8:33
[SPEAKER_05]: Should we get down there?
8:35
[SPEAKER_05]: The last one I just wanted to bring up real briefly is Solana.
8:39
[SPEAKER_05]: Again, I'll performing a lot of the other alt coins over the last couple of weeks.
8:45
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, you can see while everything was going on Bitcoin, right?
8:49
[SPEAKER_05]: Lower highs, lower lows on Ethereum.
8:52
[SPEAKER_05]: It was seeing just a move down and then sideways.
8:56
[SPEAKER_05]: Solana's the opposite of both of those.
8:59
[SPEAKER_05]: There was really no move down.
9:01
[SPEAKER_05]: Limited pullbacks every pullback was a higher low and it's been pushing to higher prices So this is the highest price that it's been in, you know almost nine months and you can't say the same thing for a theory of end Bitcoin Now there is a bit of a game of catch-up here I think and I think that's what we're seeing on this philonic chart
9:20
[SPEAKER_05]: because Bitcoin hit new all-time highs, like multiple new all-time highs, Ethereum tapped its all-time highs, and while Salana did make a new all-time high in January, it's been lagging ever since then, and it's still pretty far away from its all-time highs as we zoom out.
9:35
[SPEAKER_05]: It's all-time highs around 295 bucks.
9:38
[SPEAKER_05]: The highs closed that it ever had was around 260 bucks.
9:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, that's so on ad man, what a call.
9:44
[SPEAKER_00]: What a call for the crypto, what a one pod.
9:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Just another epic marking of if you listen to this show, you know, it doesn't have to sit me religiously, but if you follow this show and we're putting out multiple episodes a week, we're giving out so much alpha.
9:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Sometimes it's funny in the sense of like the crypto bagel and it kind of worked out because the crypto bagel was epic, but I never, I remember that's the Lana ad, and me and you were talking, I was like,
10:12
[SPEAKER_00]: That was so bad.
10:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Look at that thing.
10:14
[SPEAKER_00]: And then we have the Salana ad, the crypto bagel, the Bryce Bryce's Bryce's epic epic tweet, the Bryce epic bottom for another reason.
10:25
[SPEAKER_00]: I did want to bring the Salana ad made me laugh and I cut you off.
10:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Sorry, but like I wanted to give us kudos because if you've been listening to this show for a month, one month, we've said this
10:37
[SPEAKER_00]: I believe, you know, I was kind of the first one to do it, but I know you kind of agreed with me and then other people start doing this take the Solana ethereum narratives ethereum was the bell of the ball.
10:46
[SPEAKER_00]: So the girl you want to take to the dance this week, it used to be Solana, it's going to come back.
10:49
[SPEAKER_00]: That narrative is going to transition.
10:51
[SPEAKER_00]: And so again, all these things take time to work out.
10:54
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you've been listening to this show, again, it's not personal financial advice, you know, we didn't tell you to go do this or go do that.
11:01
[SPEAKER_00]: But like the alpha, the what we're saying between the salon ad, Bryce's tweets, the crypto bagel, and then this narrative thing where we're trying to guide you and give you kind of,
11:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, a world zoomed out view of how these markets work in structure like dude, we've been spot on and I know that's kind of padding ourselves on the back a little bit, but it's not one individual.
11:22
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not me.
11:23
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not just you.
11:24
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a testament to the team and the channel and all the research that you guys do and all the analysts and the team.
11:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, it's a team effort, but man, this network has been spot on for well over a year plus, you know, two years, three years since the bottom.
11:39
[SPEAKER_00]: I get hyped up and I think, again, it's proud because just like you make good trades and you teach us the technicals and we have the team that puts out all the newsletters and all that stuff.
11:50
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like, I take pride in trying to produce a good show that's going to bring value to the listeners.
11:55
[SPEAKER_00]: And so, yeah, maybe I am on my high horse a little bit recently, but we've been spot on with narratives and guests.
12:02
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you're listening to this subscribe if you're watching it bottom right corner hit the logo subscribe the video and then if you're listening on apple podcasts turn the notifications on because The we're going to end this episode kind of teeing up this macro view of Ray cuts and where we think this market's going and if you're missing And so to the crypto 101 pod you're missing pure alpha right now we are on fire
12:26
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, we are, and then we're having fun doing it, too.
12:28
[SPEAKER_05]: We're having fun doing it.
12:30
[SPEAKER_05]: And it's cool to see all of crypto rally.
12:32
[SPEAKER_05]: And we make all these little nicknames like there's this a lot about them, and the crypto bagel, and this and that.
12:37
[SPEAKER_05]: And we go back to these.
12:39
[SPEAKER_05]: But as we do move back to all these different ones, we look out, we have a fun time.
12:43
[SPEAKER_05]: And the big thing that we're trying to push is like, crypto has a great future.
12:48
[SPEAKER_05]: We still think,
12:50
[SPEAKER_05]: that there's the potential for more upside.
12:53
[SPEAKER_05]: And for Solana, I think it's pretty clear.
12:56
[SPEAKER_05]: We broke out of this key level.
12:57
[SPEAKER_05]: It's been outperforming against most of the rest of the crypto market.
13:02
[SPEAKER_05]: I think the next logical stop is at least around 260 bucks.
13:05
[SPEAKER_05]: You know, roughly around that area, we've seen ourselves come to this area once and reject it.
13:11
[SPEAKER_05]: Big rejection, come up here again, rejected over in here.
13:14
[SPEAKER_05]: Come up here at third time, we did pierce through it, but we did not close above it.
13:19
[SPEAKER_05]: And so that's been the big telling sign for me, is like we are unable to close above it here.
13:24
[SPEAKER_05]: We were unable to close above it here.
13:26
[SPEAKER_05]: We were unable to close above it here.
13:29
[SPEAKER_05]: 260 bucks is the big level for Solana moving forward.
13:32
[SPEAKER_05]: And as much as I've said this, I think we just gravitate back up there.
13:35
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't think it's going to be maybe it is a straight shot.
13:38
[SPEAKER_05]: That'd be awesome, right?
13:39
[SPEAKER_05]: If we just kind of shoot up there.
13:40
[SPEAKER_05]: But I think it will be kind of a gradual move.
13:42
[SPEAKER_05]: We're going to go up and then we're going to come down and then we're going to go up further and then we're going to chop around.
13:47
[SPEAKER_05]: I just see us gravitating towards 260 bucks.
13:50
[SPEAKER_05]: That is the big resistance level that solves that Solana has to approach yet.
13:55
[SPEAKER_05]: So maybe we kind of see this classic break hook and go that I like to talk about where we turn resistance in the support.
14:01
[SPEAKER_05]: I think that's a real possibility.
14:02
[SPEAKER_05]: So maybe that causes a $10, $15 retracement.
14:07
[SPEAKER_05]: But I think Solana looks good in the macro.
14:10
[SPEAKER_05]: Ethereum looks good in the macro.
14:11
[SPEAKER_05]: Bitcoin looks good in the macro.
14:14
[SPEAKER_05]: I think all three of these.
14:15
[SPEAKER_05]: I think they truly can see new all-time highs before the end of this year, and that's not that bold of a statement, especially when you look at Ethereum, for example, and new all-time highs 13% away.
14:27
[SPEAKER_05]: You look at Bitcoin and Bitcoin's only 9% away.
14:30
[SPEAKER_05]: Again, I'm not saying that this is all going to happen tomorrow or this week, but we got a lot of time left, we're in one of the worst months, if not actually the worst month of the year historically, for Bitcoin and crypto,
14:42
[SPEAKER_05]: And I think we come out of this into a fairly decent time in the market.
14:45
[SPEAKER_05]: So we'll have to see, you know, we got a lot on on the record to talk about here today.
14:51
[SPEAKER_05]: But yeah, I mean, that's my thoughts to you.
14:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think it's kind of, I know the seasonals traditionally are weak in September, but we're still in that phase of, if you're looking at the whole year with what happened in April, and just again, like we've covered on this show, so April, again, is kind of that tariff drop liberation day drop, plus, you know, what we've had on this show nonstop, which is, you know, pro-regulation, just specifically to the crypto space.
15:20
[SPEAKER_00]: So you had a macro black swan,
15:23
[SPEAKER_00]: but specifically our space, it's been nothing but good news.
15:28
[SPEAKER_00]: And then it kind of you can make this case which we talked about on the show before is it's the most hated rally.
15:33
[SPEAKER_00]: And that could go for stocks and crypto.
15:35
[SPEAKER_00]: is depending on the decisions that you made in late April whether they were financial, whether you were just got scared, whether you are, you could have bought the dip, maybe, and you could have went all in, and you know, but there's a lot of people that sold, and maybe rightfully so, especially if you didn't have, you know, the right education and the right team and the right community around you, like we have here, if you were kind of on your own, maybe you sold, and then there's a ton of professionals that sold and went short, because they thought the world was ending,
16:05
[SPEAKER_00]: proven at this point to be wrong.
16:07
[SPEAKER_00]: And so if you're that wrong and the market rips in your face and you're just saying well It's gonna come back in and it's you know the world's ending.
16:13
[SPEAKER_00]: It's gonna come back in and it continues to just launch to new all-time highs Whether you're talking about the NASDAQ the Dow
16:20
[SPEAKER_00]: the S&P 500 bit coin, Ethereum, like it does, you know, so it's really take your pick of the asset gold, um, everything's moved all time highs and if you're sitting on the sideline and cash, you know, clip in three percent or four percent on a treasury or two your treasury or something like,
16:38
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a hated rally because, because in your mind, you're like, no, the world, the world was ending.
16:43
[SPEAKER_00]: It was the end of business and globalization as we know it, like the stock market supposed to go down another 25% from when I sold and then I was going to buy back.
16:52
[SPEAKER_00]: So there's a lot, a lot of angry people out there, I think, at this rally, which could give it a solid floor, which is kind of that theory behind, you know, why the seasonality's aren't going to be that negative.
17:04
[SPEAKER_00]: and you know, teeing everything up like the later in the show with the rate cuts and is there gonna be an end of your chase there's a lot of momentum
17:12
[SPEAKER_00]: probably to the upside, which I think is kind of, you know, we're kind of permables admittedly, but, you know, we're just trying to do the research and try to, you know, get on the right side of what we think could happen.
17:25
[SPEAKER_00]: But when it comes to where we're moving on with all coins, which again, we've talked about this on the show nonstop.
17:31
[SPEAKER_00]: When is all coins season?
17:32
[SPEAKER_00]: There's numbers of different indicators.
17:34
[SPEAKER_00]: This thing this morning and yesterday has been flying around.
17:38
[SPEAKER_00]: it's the old coin indicator.
17:39
[SPEAKER_00]: You can find it on, you know, this is turned into a graph, but you can find it on coin market cap and a lot of other indicators.
17:45
[SPEAKER_00]: And we're kind of hitting that, uh, hitting, hitting that line there at 76, where kind of we rocketed up towards the end of the year last year post election.
17:55
[SPEAKER_00]: So Brennan, are you excited that this has gotten back up there?
17:59
[SPEAKER_00]: And what, what kind of, what is your feeling when you see the charts like this?
18:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, one indicator of many that we want to look at, but does this get you excited for that piercing?
18:08
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, it does.
18:09
[SPEAKER_05]: And I think you're right, you know, there's a couple of things that we look at.
18:12
[SPEAKER_05]: We like to look at this.
18:13
[SPEAKER_05]: We like to look at Bitcoin dominance.
18:16
[SPEAKER_05]: We like to look at ETHBTC.
18:18
[SPEAKER_05]: We like to look at the total two, the others chart.
18:21
[SPEAKER_05]: Like there's a bunch of different things that we like to look at to kind of say.
18:24
[SPEAKER_05]: Okay, where are we at?
18:26
[SPEAKER_05]: And so far, the altcoin season while it has been really good.
18:29
[SPEAKER_05]: I think people have felt it a little bit more in the large market cap altcoins.
18:33
[SPEAKER_05]: You sold Tron, B&B, XRP, Solana, and Ethereum all hit new all-time highs.
18:40
[SPEAKER_05]: what you haven't seen is a lot of the mid to low caps hit all time highs yet.
18:44
[SPEAKER_05]: There have been exceptions right you have hyper liquid done exceptional you've had syrup done exceptional you've had uller also just be exceptional pump recently just doing great and there's been some other big runs here and there but it's been a bit more selective so there's two things that come to my mind number one we've talked about a lot and that's
19:02
[SPEAKER_05]: The awkward space has grown to such a point, you know, I think almost 2 million different cryptocurrencies or something or no 20 million.
19:09
[SPEAKER_05]: I'll check real fast.
19:10
[SPEAKER_05]: Either way, there's just uh, millions and millions of different altcoins that have been created.
19:16
[SPEAKER_05]: And I think that there's too many out there now for every single one to succeed.
19:21
[SPEAKER_05]: And for every single one to just
19:24
[SPEAKER_05]: be able to blow up.
19:26
[SPEAKER_05]: So as I'm checking this, you know, there's over 21 million different cryptos listed on CoinMarket cat now, you know, well more than that that have been created.
19:34
[SPEAKER_05]: And so I think the market is too big to where everything has to go up when all when crypto should be doing well.
19:40
[SPEAKER_05]: The second thing,
19:42
[SPEAKER_05]: is that, you know, I think once the more that we get in the all coincies in the more we tend to see, there's mid to small caps do better, and the runs always start off with Bitcoin first.
19:51
[SPEAKER_05]: We saw that from 2022 to 2025.
19:52
[SPEAKER_05]: Now we're starting to see a shift into Ethereum.
19:58
[SPEAKER_05]: in Solana, and again, some of those other large caps.
20:01
[SPEAKER_05]: It tends to trickle down like an inverse pyramid where you go from the largest ones first, and then you kind of funnel down into the smaller ones.
20:10
[SPEAKER_05]: And I think that's kind of the stage that we could be entering into here.
20:13
[SPEAKER_05]: Again, I personally believe the space has too many cryptos for every single one to do well.
20:18
[SPEAKER_05]: I think you are going to have to be a bit more selective with it, but we still will be able to see, you know, generally speaking, I think some altcoins can do well here.
20:26
[SPEAKER_05]: And we've seen some nice rallies over the course of like the start of this year.
20:29
[SPEAKER_05]: I know it especially in the last two or so months, we've seen some really good rallies.
20:33
[SPEAKER_05]: I think that that can kind of continue.
20:36
[SPEAKER_05]: and we normally see these kind of mid-caps rally in October, November, December.
20:41
[SPEAKER_05]: So if any times a golden period, it should be these last three months.
20:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it certainly, it certainly feels like that.
20:49
[SPEAKER_00]: And then I can share this one, we're on coin market cap now.
20:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, they have theirs at 66.
20:56
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, the yearly high over here was 87.
21:00
[SPEAKER_00]: So obviously, we're not quite there yet.
21:03
[SPEAKER_00]: But interesting enough, you know, I'm just riding up over the Bitcoin price.
21:08
[SPEAKER_00]: We can move over the fear of greed index.
21:10
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, dude, we brought this up a couple weeks ago.
21:13
[SPEAKER_00]: And just when you see this around neutral,
21:16
[SPEAKER_00]: we just tipped into fear.
21:17
[SPEAKER_00]: You can see on the chart here on the right right here.
21:20
[SPEAKER_00]: We just nibbled into into fear territory and then you can see that again I'm sorry for blocking it but like just that price action not following that fear index I thought was really interesting because you can kind of see over here again uh
21:36
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, this was that April March libration day, and so you just saw it again, it was kind of a leading indicator first, but just the price went down to match that movement.
21:47
[SPEAKER_00]: And just I feel like this movement here since, you know, what August down here in this fear green index, the price hasn't moved, which again, it could it totally could follow that right.
21:58
[SPEAKER_00]: kind of that breaking is going to break down or break up, but kind of what you just said is man, we're really looking at again, I know September season was aren't great, but we're looking at the rest of the year with a lot of macro factors, and it's just the runway, the runway looks set up for some good price action into the end of the year.
22:18
[SPEAKER_00]: And you kind of continue that with what you're seeing on the supply side.
22:21
[SPEAKER_00]: I know you threw this in for us to talk about this week was, you know, that youth supply continues to get lower.
22:28
[SPEAKER_00]: And then in shorts are extremely high.
22:31
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, as this post says, you know what happens next, but, you know, you've been tracking this.
22:35
[SPEAKER_00]: So what do you see?
22:38
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, I mean, exactly, when you look at each supply, like we talk about this with a lot of different cryptos, but especially VTC and Eve, when the eat supply is falling, when anything supplies falling, it tends to get more rare.
22:50
[SPEAKER_05]: And what happens here is we're seeing a giant surge in demand for Ethereum, especially from Bitmine, right?
22:57
[SPEAKER_05]: Bitmine and sharp link have been goddling this step up alongside the ETFs accumulating it.
23:04
[SPEAKER_05]: And it's leaving exchanges and masks.
23:07
[SPEAKER_05]: So what's happening is a sudden and gigantic, not even a sudden, it's been a pretty continuous surge in demand and a shrinking supply.
23:16
[SPEAKER_05]: So what this means is, you know, if we are going back to the most basic laws of economic supply and demand, well, if supply is shrinking, the demand is increasing, that asset has to become, it has to increase in price, right?
23:28
[SPEAKER_05]: It has to become more valuable because it's not only in more demand, but it's also becoming
23:36
[SPEAKER_05]: And I think a lot of the times we are used to one or the other.
23:39
[SPEAKER_05]: Oh, demand is shrinking all some things become more expensive.
23:43
[SPEAKER_05]: Oh, you know, demand is increasing and supply is decreasing.
23:48
[SPEAKER_05]: And you have either one of those happening at a given point in time.
23:51
[SPEAKER_05]: And that always causes price appreciation.
23:55
[SPEAKER_05]: What we have with Ethereum is both happening at the same time.
23:58
[SPEAKER_05]: So I think that the price is being squeezed at the highs.
24:06
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't think that all of it has been priced in yet.
24:08
[SPEAKER_05]: I think it'd be silly to say, hey, we have seen the supply of Ethereum get completely white in recent years, but we should still be priced at the same point that we were four years ago.
24:20
[SPEAKER_05]: And that's not accounting for everything that's been built, everything that's happened, the supply shock, and after all of that,
24:28
[SPEAKER_05]: All of the progress and all of those different factors were still the same price that we were a couple of years ago in terms of the highs, right?
24:34
[SPEAKER_05]: Because we've hit this before.
24:36
[SPEAKER_05]: So I think now you can say that not all of that is factored in.
24:40
[SPEAKER_05]: Because if it was, we should definitely be at a higher price than we were back in like 2021, 2021, 2022.
24:46
[SPEAKER_05]: So that's what it tells me is that again, it's really hard to have this happen.
24:51
[SPEAKER_05]: And we saw what happened with Bitcoin, what happened a bit?
24:55
[SPEAKER_05]: It's been on a multi-year tear.
24:56
[SPEAKER_05]: People always said, oh, it's gonna have a blow off top and this and that, and like so far, it hasn't.
25:01
[SPEAKER_05]: And we saw Bitcoin supply start shrinking a couple of years ago on exchanges, and it's been shrinking ever since then.
25:07
[SPEAKER_05]: Over the same period, Bitcoin has continued to hit new all-time high, after new all-time high, after new all-time high.
25:13
[SPEAKER_05]: And sure, it has these pullbacks of 30%.
25:14
[SPEAKER_05]: It has these periods of moving sideways for six months, but it always exits out of those with the new all-time high.
25:21
[SPEAKER_05]: My personal opinion is that Ethereum can start behaving in a very similar manner that we've seen Bitcoin doing in recent years, where it can start hitting continuous new all-time highs, sure it's going to have these more volatile pullbacks and stuff.
25:34
[SPEAKER_05]: It's going to have extended periods of consolidation.
25:37
[SPEAKER_05]: But I think it resumes to the upside here.
25:39
[SPEAKER_05]: And so that's where we start getting some of these other big factors is saying, well, what if we start looking at tokenization?
25:46
[SPEAKER_05]: What if that starts getting used more?
25:47
[SPEAKER_05]: What if D5 becomes more prominent?
25:49
[SPEAKER_05]: And that starts getting more adoption.
25:51
[SPEAKER_05]: What if stablecoins start getting used in the way that everyone's talking about them?
25:55
[SPEAKER_05]: And everyone's trying to use them from banks, financial institutions, governments, businesses, retail, you name it?
26:01
[SPEAKER_05]: Well, then you start having all these other external factors.
26:04
[SPEAKER_05]: And I think that's where a lot of people are getting this idea of a 10k ethereum, a 15k ethereum and stuff like that.
26:12
[SPEAKER_05]: And I have to be honest, you know, I think we're, I'm not sure we're going to see a 10k ethereum by the end of this year.
26:17
[SPEAKER_05]: I think it'd be awesome.
26:18
[SPEAKER_05]: I think it's a little bit, uh...
26:20
[SPEAKER_05]: of a reach.
26:21
[SPEAKER_05]: I hope I'm proven wrong.
26:22
[SPEAKER_05]: But listen, I think Ethereum can hit new all-time highs.
26:25
[SPEAKER_05]: I'd still say like a realistic upside possibility for each here is still well above 5K.
26:32
[SPEAKER_05]: I think it could hit 6 or 7K.
26:33
[SPEAKER_05]: I want to count that out.
26:35
[SPEAKER_05]: And it does feel like the coil is just you know winding up at this time.
26:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, the flywheels in good shape here.
26:45
[SPEAKER_00]: So this wasn't on the sheet, but just a, you know, bitmind still buying.
26:49
[SPEAKER_00]: This is just this morning, you know, bitmind again by 204 million of eath this morning, disclosure from Kathy Woods arc buying one million shares of bitmind.
27:00
[SPEAKER_00]: So nine, you know, arc now owns over 9.1 million.
27:03
[SPEAKER_00]: That's $440 million on the eath treasury company.
27:06
[SPEAKER_00]: So like basically just building off what Brendan was saying it supplies low.
27:11
[SPEAKER_00]: we have the treasury companies we have the theorem ETFs alive and just this flywheel of bitmines buying eat people are buying bitmine it's just it's more and more ammo for this thing to just keep going into your thought brand of comparing where it was you know years ago to it's all time i versus the narrative now it it
27:31
[SPEAKER_00]: It's just kind of a little bit of make sense equation right in your head, but you got to remember the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid and so you just got to be careful of you know you may have so much conviction that things are going higher but you got to be careful you got to be smart you got to plan your trades and trade your plan and you don't want to
27:50
[SPEAKER_00]: get into a position where you overleverage yourself because you think something's a no-brainer and it doesn't happen.
27:55
[SPEAKER_00]: And so, you know, I think you can have these thoughts and you can have the vision of what's going to happen and you could be a hundred percent right, but it's not going to happen on the timeline that you think.
28:07
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I think, you know, it was a great lesson we've talked about it before was the Bitcoin ETFs when those came out.
28:12
[SPEAKER_00]: We still had volatility to the downside after we got everything we wanted and we thought it was a no brainer up only.
28:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, if you zoom out, it was, but in the timeline that, oh, hand up, I thought in the timeline that I thought I was like, oh, I'm hammering this.
28:26
[SPEAKER_00]: It's going to go now.
28:27
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to do some options.
28:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's use leverage.
28:29
[SPEAKER_00]: and then it just came back and bit me in the bottom of it in the sense that, you know, I made this thing and in my head, it was this timeline that was gonna go quicker than I thought.
28:38
[SPEAKER_00]: So it'll come in time if you're right, you just wanna make sure that you position yourself and be safe and do it the right way and not overextend yourself.
28:49
[SPEAKER_00]: But at the end of the day, Ethereum, Solana, all this stuff, they're all friends, right?
28:54
[SPEAKER_00]: That's how we feel.
28:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Bitcoin and Ethereum are friends.
28:58
[SPEAKER_00]: That's what our friend Thomas said in here.
29:00
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think we kind of agree with that in the sense of, all ties will lift all boats or the tide rising will lift all boats, whatever that's saying is.
29:10
[SPEAKER_00]: And kind of your point is just the momentum continues for the use of Ethereum.
29:17
[SPEAKER_00]: So we're seeing that a fidelity is is tokenizing US treasuries on Ethereum kind of like what you said we march on with with the use Anything specifically that you saw for this one or just a general use case another use case for Ethereum from a big player
29:33
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, you know, we've seen other groups do this, right?
29:35
[SPEAKER_05]: Most notably, we've seen black rock and a couple of other big asset managers.
29:40
[SPEAKER_05]: And fidelity is next in line.
29:42
[SPEAKER_05]: And listen, I think that this will be the norm for these asset managers moving forward.
29:49
[SPEAKER_05]: I think we're gonna see any mainstream semi-large asset manager having tokenized funds of one kinder of or another on Ethereum and maybe even Solana.
30:02
[SPEAKER_05]: And in fact, I don't think that there's any outside of those, maybe there are, if they are, they're probably pretty small, but we have seen some pretty notable players on Ethereum and then even if you on Solana.
30:13
[SPEAKER_05]: So I think that this is essentially solidifying this idea that.
30:18
[SPEAKER_05]: You know, eat is becoming the standard here.
30:21
[SPEAKER_05]: You have black rock and you have fidelity, which I believe are the two largest asset managers in the world.
30:27
[SPEAKER_05]: I think fidelity is over five trillion and assets under management.
30:31
[SPEAKER_05]: I know black rocks are over 10 trillion and assets under management.
30:36
[SPEAKER_05]: You got like the two biggest whales in this space saying, we are doing this and they kind of set the pace for everyone else.
30:42
[SPEAKER_05]: So it's every other asset manager is just going to say, well, you know, if people want these things and if people like that stuff, all of you got to leave us and you got to go to them, they're going to say, no, we're going to try to do this in a little bit of a different way.
30:55
[SPEAKER_05]: And we're going to try to have similar and competitive products to the biggest names in the space.
31:00
[SPEAKER_05]: So I think that this is just going to become the norm.
31:03
[SPEAKER_05]: And we're going to have these triad fi entities launch these different kinds of tokenized treasuries and tokenized funds and all these different things on chain.
31:15
[SPEAKER_05]: And that's the direction that I see us moving.
31:16
[SPEAKER_05]: So it's cool.
31:18
[SPEAKER_05]: You know, it really is cool.
31:19
[SPEAKER_05]: We kind of saw a blockrock in a couple of others.
31:21
[SPEAKER_05]: I think Vanac was, I believe Vanac was another one.
31:25
[SPEAKER_05]: And yeah, I like the
31:32
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, that's the way it looks when I share this one from our friends over at Milk Road.
31:36
[SPEAKER_00]: The overall crypto market cap is more than doubled since 2024.
31:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Just 21 months, it's gone up nearly 140%.
31:45
[SPEAKER_00]: So again, momentum like this doesn't fade easily.
31:48
[SPEAKER_00]: That's kind of our point of bringing you all these new stories with fidelity or black rock and gold in its axis.
31:52
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like they're all saying that they're coming on chain and building products on chain and using Ethereum or using Solana.
31:58
[SPEAKER_00]: And then kind of just the overall crypto market cap,
32:02
[SPEAKER_00]: skyrocketing right now and that could be just from, you know, people going and buying, you know, Solana, Ethereum Bitcoin on chain, but also that's what they're saying is like these treasury companies, this whole flywheel funnel, it's all moving money to crypto just in different ways.
32:17
[SPEAKER_00]: And so kind of,
32:19
[SPEAKER_00]: you know, why is that happening?
32:20
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, obviously there's people that want, you know, gains and they're trying to make money and all that stuff, but again, it's the regulation.
32:27
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the regulation around the space that's allowing this.
32:30
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, that's kind of the Brendan's point and I agree with them is.
32:33
[SPEAKER_00]: you're looking back a year or two years or the last bull run and we're, you know, some of these projects aren't at their all-time highs, but yet they're still as relevant as ever with the regulation.
32:45
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like it's just that concoction that gets you bold up.
32:48
[SPEAKER_00]: So the type of stuff that gets us bold up just as much as price action as regulation.
32:53
[SPEAKER_00]: And so this was the SEC chair commenting and saying that it is crypto's time and it is company.
32:59
[SPEAKER_01]: And today, ladies and gentlemen, we must admit that crypto's time to stop.
33:05
[SPEAKER_01]: For too long, the SEC has weaponized its investigatory, subpoena, and enforcement authorities to subvert the crypto industry.
33:15
[SPEAKER_01]: Now the approach was not only ineffective, but injurious.
33:20
[SPEAKER_01]: It proved jobs, innovation, and capital to proceed.
33:24
[SPEAKER_01]: American entrepreneurs bore the brunt and have been forced to spend fortunes on building a legal defense instead of a business and today ladies and gentlemen we must
33:37
[SPEAKER_00]: And with that, just the regulation around crypto, the stock market and crypto just kind of jointly together marches on coin shares is going public again, not something not I guess a major company that maybe the average retail vester would would think of, but it's a huge crypto ETP, I mean, it's right up there behind black rock fidelity, gray scale.
34:00
[SPEAKER_00]: It's the number one in Europe.
34:01
[SPEAKER_00]: It has 34% market share.
34:03
[SPEAKER_00]: So the fact that this is going public is huge.
34:05
[SPEAKER_00]: And I actually saw this news from James and I were actually, you know, trying for our listeners.
34:10
[SPEAKER_00]: I reached out to try to get somebody from coin shares on the show.
34:13
[SPEAKER_00]: I did get a response.
34:14
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm working on it to bring that interview with Bryce and Brendan to you guys.
34:18
[SPEAKER_00]: But that's what we want, right?
34:20
[SPEAKER_00]: We want more people that have huge market share that have been in the space to kind of get involved.
34:26
[SPEAKER_00]: And if it's time for them to go public and get the investing that they think is good for them to grow, I think it's good for the space if they're doing it the right way, which clearly the SEC is laying out the framework and the runway for stuff like this to happen.
34:40
[SPEAKER_00]: And then again, moving on from more research from our friend James,
34:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Is this brand, and I mean, I've seen this over the timeline last week or two, I'm surprised we haven't put on the run down and she yet, but like there's over 90 crypto ETFs waiting for the SEC's approval and I know we've talked about it on the show before of
34:58
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, what's going to get past?
34:59
[SPEAKER_00]: What's not with the odds and percentages?
35:01
[SPEAKER_00]: But again, over the last two-minute rant here that I've done with teeing up that clip from the SEC chair saying crypto's time has come.
35:09
[SPEAKER_00]: And then also you see this where there's 90 count on me, can't even zoom in on that.
35:14
[SPEAKER_00]: 99, 90 crypto ETFs of waiting.
35:18
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, again, it might not be the time frame and the timeline that you think it might take longer, but I have, man, God, this is bullish.
35:28
[SPEAKER_05]: And someone gives James an award, has he not gotten like a Nobel Prize in some form or some sort of like metal of honor for
35:36
[SPEAKER_05]: keep it up with all of this, but you know, no, we'll have to have them back on.
35:40
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll create some award and get a trophy mail to them, and then you can have like an accepted speech on the air.
35:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's be good.
35:48
[SPEAKER_05]: James needs like one of those edits.
35:49
[SPEAKER_05]: Like we've all seen those like kind of funny, kind of cringy, like super stereotypical, like TikTok Instagram edits of like people of their favorite celebrity.
36:00
[SPEAKER_05]: That's what James needs.
36:01
[SPEAKER_05]: James needs like one of these because
36:03
[SPEAKER_05]: him and Eric have done such an incredible and ridiculous job of keeping up with all of this.
36:11
[SPEAKER_05]: And a lot of people think, oh, all they do is keep up with crypto.
36:14
[SPEAKER_05]: No, you know, they're Bloomberg intelligence analysts.
36:16
[SPEAKER_05]: They manage everything in the ETF space.
36:19
[SPEAKER_05]: And that's just 90 from the crypto side.
36:21
[SPEAKER_05]: And so it's a lot to manage and deal with.
36:23
[SPEAKER_05]: And there are sources and our go-to on this.
36:25
[SPEAKER_05]: But
36:26
[SPEAKER_05]: You know, what does this say?
36:28
[SPEAKER_05]: This says that there is so much institutional demand for crypto, and look at all of these.
36:34
[SPEAKER_05]: I see, I mean, Salana, Dogecoin, XRP, Cardano, H bar.
36:40
[SPEAKER_05]: I see what else, Polkadot, I see different kinds of Ethereum ones, for different Ethereum options.
36:48
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, there's a say one in there.
36:50
[SPEAKER_05]: And the list goes on, I mean, AVACs, there's so many different ones.
36:53
[SPEAKER_05]: And so retail, once this,
36:55
[SPEAKER_05]: institutional is trying to push it.
36:57
[SPEAKER_05]: They clearly want some exposure to this.
37:00
[SPEAKER_05]: And the doors are opening up.
37:03
[SPEAKER_05]: You know, the floodgates are opening.
37:05
[SPEAKER_05]: And
37:06
[SPEAKER_05]: more people are going to have or access to crypto than ever before.
37:12
[SPEAKER_05]: Started with just wallets, peer to peer, exchanges, triad fiber oak ridges, banks, asset managers.
37:21
[SPEAKER_05]: You name it, you know, everyone is going to be able to give their clients access to crypto moving forward.
37:27
[SPEAKER_05]: And that just seems like it's the direction that we're heading.
37:31
[SPEAKER_05]: And these ETFs are just going to make that more possible.
37:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and there's some Rex Osprey crypto ETFs that seemed to have passed the 75 day review window and could be trading as early as this Friday, so something that will keep an eye on.
37:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, again, we've always said that usually these kind of go live and tandem, is this a group ETF or is this the individuals like that this tweet didn't really I not good.
37:56
[SPEAKER_05]: Rex Osprey, they tend to have ETFs, but not necessarily spot ETFs.
38:03
[SPEAKER_05]: Right.
38:03
[SPEAKER_05]: So that's something that's happened in the past is that we could get ETFs past, but they might not be spot ETFs.
38:09
[SPEAKER_05]: Generally speaking, we want spot ETFs, because if people go and they buy the spot ETF, then those asset managers are going and buying that exact amount of the underlying asset.
38:23
[SPEAKER_05]: You know, other kinds of ETFs, they don't have to do that.
38:26
[SPEAKER_05]: They just have to simulate the price action and, you know, move it around.
38:32
[SPEAKER_05]: So you just get exposure to the underlying price action, but it's not actually causing any buying or selling on chain.
38:38
[SPEAKER_05]: And, you know, it's not...
38:40
[SPEAKER_05]: Generally speaking is good or helpful, so I would also believe that that's the case here because they say They don't say the word spot in there and that's something I've been extra careful about Especially with this group and it's nothing like bad against them right it's not like all they're bad It's their fault.
38:56
[SPEAKER_05]: No.
38:56
[SPEAKER_05]: It's not like that Different groups do different things, but generally speaking You know Rex Osprey especially recently.
39:04
[SPEAKER_05]: They've done
39:05
[SPEAKER_05]: different kinds of ETFs outside of spot ones.
39:09
[SPEAKER_05]: And I believe that's the case with these as well.
39:12
[SPEAKER_05]: Because if you look at Bitcoin, Bitcoin already has a spot ETF trading.
39:17
[SPEAKER_05]: So they're probably trying to do something a little bit different.
39:20
[SPEAKER_05]: And I was looking into this on
39:23
[SPEAKER_05]: Monday because I had someone internally on our side reach out to me and say, hey, you know I saw that there's a Solana ETF out there and I looked into it for him and I said, hey This is a Solana ETF, but it's not a Solana spot ETF and it's important to kind of clarify how those work Dude, that's why we're here the education.
39:42
[SPEAKER_00]: I threw it on there at the end of like I haven't been hearing enough noise around this So my guess is Brendan is gonna throw us some knowledge on that as you did, but
39:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Overall, just again, that SEC clip I think kind of has been ringing in my head since I saw it as dude the regulations coming and we've talked about those ETFs how they're all backlog that 90 list from from James and it's just like, well, when are these going to get through come on, we want them and you know, I'm not going to say that everyone's going to get through, but they're they're holding it up and they're figuring out the regulation around it.
40:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, is my guess, especially with that clip that we just watched and these things are going to start to get past and then again, depending on which project or coin or whatever is like gets that, you know, flywheel, treasury strategy with the ETF flows.
40:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, and I think that'll be interesting to track because like we've said a lot of these huge institutions, they want access to these markets, but they can't go dive into Coinbase or Gemini or Kraken.
40:40
[SPEAKER_00]: So to be able to kind of see and see the flows and see what ETFs get bought up with different disclosures and stuff will be really, really interesting to track and great content.
40:48
[SPEAKER_00]: So I know me and you are super excited for that.
40:51
[SPEAKER_00]: But let's set the table for next week.
40:53
[SPEAKER_00]: So we talked about it earlier in the week.
40:55
[SPEAKER_00]: This job's data came in.
40:56
[SPEAKER_00]: It was absolutely...
40:58
[SPEAKER_00]: basically astounding the corrections they're making to the jobs data to the point where you know the summary was like we haven't added a job in the US economy for like a year or something that is crazy and then basically kind of teeing up that this thought process of the dual mandate for the Fed you know what's you know the the mandate of
41:19
[SPEAKER_00]: low inflation and full employment, and the employment's falling out of bed inflation seems basically steady at this point, even though the worry was that tariffs would pass through and inflation would be rampant.
41:31
[SPEAKER_00]: We're just not seeing that.
41:32
[SPEAKER_00]: And so I have a clip here from BlackRock's Rick Reader.
41:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, Rick Reader is just really a great voice in the space.
41:41
[SPEAKER_00]: I know he dabbles in the bond market a lot more, but he's great at just, obviously, being a head investor at BlackRock.
41:48
[SPEAKER_00]: He knows the market's very well, and he's a respected voice, somebody that I really enjoy listening to.
41:53
[SPEAKER_00]: So this is a little bit of a longer clip.
41:54
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like a minute, 45, but I think we play it through, because he touches on everything from hard assets to big coins or rate cuts.
42:01
[SPEAKER_00]: And then we can kind of dive into what happened today with the releasing of the CPI.
42:07
[SPEAKER_00]: We had the PPI last week, the job numbers and we're set the table for the fed.
42:11
[SPEAKER_00]: So let's listen to BlackRock's Rick Reader.
42:14
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think hard assets have to enter equation today.
42:19
[SPEAKER_03]: Gold Bitcoin, what kind of percentage are you thinking about?
42:23
[SPEAKER_03]: Is it a 5% percent?
42:24
[SPEAKER_03]: What do you think the ideal portfolio is supposed to look like today?
42:28
[SPEAKER_03]: We're surrounded by investors.
42:30
[SPEAKER_03]: We're surrounded, look quite literally by financial advisors who are thinking about that.
42:37
[SPEAKER_02]: retail investors who are watching me what does it look like today very different than the past so may not start with the start of the equity market and the first thing I would say we're going through the most extraordinary technology dynamic I've ever seen before I would stay long equities by the way you can buy vault you can buy volatility very cheaply to manage your exposure.
42:56
[SPEAKER_02]: and still on acronyms oriented to where growth and technology is.
43:00
[SPEAKER_02]: In fixed income, income is amazing.
43:03
[SPEAKER_02]: You're still clippin 6% would I stay 5 years in in the curve?
43:07
[SPEAKER_02]: I'd still clip that coupon worth standing a little bit out.
43:10
[SPEAKER_02]: And then quite frankly, you mean there's some interesting things to do in private, bespoke markets.
43:15
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think hard assets have to enter the equation today.
43:19
[SPEAKER_02]: Gold, Bitcoin, things that give you a little bit of ballast in the portfolio against potential for currency depreciation.
43:25
[SPEAKER_03]: When you talk about Bitcoin should be part of the portfolio, what kind of percentage are you thinking about?
43:31
[SPEAKER_03]: Is it a 5% which generally seems to be what people are talking about?
43:35
[SPEAKER_03]: More or less, it seems high to me.
43:36
[SPEAKER_02]: So I run our global allocation fund.
43:39
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, we're running long equities, you know, we're heavy income.
43:43
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, we're running, you know, in the three to five percent region on goal, goal strikes me today as a better currency hedge, big coin tends to trade with fall, tends to trade with the Nasdaq.
43:55
[SPEAKER_02]: So we're running considerably lower than that in crypto.
43:59
[SPEAKER_02]: I just think it's going to go up and I think it's a good expression, but five seems high to me, but depends where you are in your life and how much risk you want to take.
44:07
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think hard asset.
44:13
[SPEAKER_00]: messed up only over there.
44:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, I love trying to give our listeners a full view.
44:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, that guy's not a crypto-specific guy.
44:20
[SPEAKER_00]: He manages that world fund that he was talking about a black rock, which added Bitcoin into that fund.
44:27
[SPEAKER_00]: But overall, kind of setting the table that
44:31
[SPEAKER_00]: he went on that two-minute rant based on the ask for rate cuts and he said that and he is in the conversation for an interview with treasurer treasurer secretary Scott peasant um he's I don't know if he he wouldn't talk about it but he was invited to interview
44:47
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm along with a lot of other characters and so kind of when he gave his opinion on the rake cuts coming up he said it's like we need to lower rates we need to cut rates and he goes depending on the data that comes out this week I could make the case for a 50 you know 50 bips cut.
45:02
[SPEAKER_00]: And so, again, it's just another person, this person is very, very well respected in this investing space who's calling for Raycuts based on the data.
45:13
[SPEAKER_00]: And the data that came out today is one of those things that just continues to call for Raycuts.
45:19
[SPEAKER_00]: So, Brendan, if you wanted to show us the data or anything that you have around it, I know you pulled the numbers.
45:24
[SPEAKER_00]: So, what are we seeing to set the table for next week?
45:27
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, I mean, I was looking at the numbers for CPI and that came out as expected.
45:33
[SPEAKER_05]: You know, CPI rose, or sorry, CPI came in as expected and in line at 2.9% which is right along expectations, of course, CPI came in at 3.1% in line with the 3.1% expectations.
45:49
[SPEAKER_05]: So again, it was rising a little bit.
45:51
[SPEAKER_05]: Yes, but it's still in line with the expectation and it's not anything that's overly aggressive beyond expectations.
45:58
[SPEAKER_05]: And so when we look at rate cuts, again, it's saying, hey, the labor market seems to be the big focus point for the Fed, and that means that rate cuts are the likely scenario.
46:11
[SPEAKER_05]: We should be getting more of them.
46:12
[SPEAKER_05]: We should be getting.
46:14
[SPEAKER_05]: a larger size in terms of the rate cuts that we do get, so I'm looking at both of those factors as really positive things for the crypto market here.
46:23
[SPEAKER_05]: Again, the data continues to show that not only is the crypto market bullish, which is what we've talked about, the fundamentals, the technicals, even on the triad-fi side of data, like everything is pointing towards being excited about the crypto markets.
46:36
[SPEAKER_05]: If you like the on-chain data, that looks fantastic.
46:39
[SPEAKER_05]: If you like the price action in TAs a trader, that looks really, really good, and that looks optimistic.
46:44
[SPEAKER_05]: If you like news and catalysts and adoption, clearly that looks good from everything that we talk about, you know, multiple times a week.
46:52
[SPEAKER_05]: And again, if you are looking at what's happening with bonds and inflation and the Fed and this and that, that stuff's even in favor of the crypto market.
47:03
[SPEAKER_05]: So it's a really hard,
47:06
[SPEAKER_05]: scenario here to try to put together some bearish case for Bitcoin and crypto moving into the remainder of this year.
47:14
[SPEAKER_05]: I think it's going to be extremely hard to create this bearish case scenario and apart from us getting some unexpected blacks one like event, I just don't see it.
47:26
[SPEAKER_05]: falling apart.
47:27
[SPEAKER_05]: I just, I don't, I don't.
47:29
[SPEAKER_05]: I think that any dips that we do get, and again, never financial or investment advice, we're not your financial or investment advisor.
47:35
[SPEAKER_05]: But I have a really hard time seeing the crypto market be bearish, and I have a hard time seeing how anyone could even be pessimistic about it.
47:43
[SPEAKER_05]: So listen, I think the dips that we get are rather shallow and short lived.
47:47
[SPEAKER_05]: That's kind of been my stance.
47:48
[SPEAKER_05]: We're coming out of a big consolidation phase, and we've been rallying to the upside.
47:52
[SPEAKER_05]: I think listen, we're going through the worst month
47:56
[SPEAKER_05]: Normally in the crypto markets and so far it's been pretty mild August and September both pretty mild so far And so I think that we come out of this just on a warpath back to the upside and you know we'll see we'll see
48:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think next week we'll really set the tone to see how the market takes it.
48:16
[SPEAKER_00]: I actually got, I think the job's number as scary as it was to be like, oh, man.
48:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Wow, the economy is actually maybe in worse shape than we thought.
48:27
[SPEAKER_00]: I did some thinking and I actually heard this take and I digested it.
48:31
[SPEAKER_00]: I was like, wow, that's really interesting.
48:33
[SPEAKER_00]: You could spend zone it.
48:34
[SPEAKER_00]: You could actually spend zone this job's data update.
48:39
[SPEAKER_00]: be really bullish on the economy because we did have growth.
48:44
[SPEAKER_00]: with much less jobs than we thought.
48:47
[SPEAKER_00]: So with GDP actual actually growing with a lot less jobs, that means we're being efficient.
48:53
[SPEAKER_00]: So whether it's the CapEx investment story for May I or maybe there's more productivity coming again, you'd really have to go and do the research trying to find out exactly what that is.
49:04
[SPEAKER_00]: But there's an interesting case to be made when everybody throws up their hands like, oh my God, we don't have as many jobs.
49:10
[SPEAKER_00]: The economy's falling apart.
49:11
[SPEAKER_00]: It's run healthy, run healthy, it's like,
49:13
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, there's a case we made of how do we even reading all these economic numbers and how are they coming in so wrong?
49:19
[SPEAKER_00]: But if the growth of the GDP is still intact and in line, while we had much less jobs, we're actually being a much, much more efficient economy.
49:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you're saying that we're in this business cycle and there's tons of people, I don't think anybody's really arguing for a middle cycle.
49:35
[SPEAKER_00]: There's this debate going on.
49:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Are we late cycle or are we early cycle?
49:40
[SPEAKER_00]: And the late cycle people like, oh, it's like obviously we had the dip a couple years ago and now we've been rocketing and video to blow off top oracles up 40% bit coins out a hundred thousand late cycle behavior late cycle behavior we're going to roll over and then there's people saying oh well maybe not maybe we're an early cycle and this is just an investment, you know, this is the second third inning of this AI story of investment in Cap X and as this Cap X keeps growing these companies are going to get more efficient and, you know, again, that that
50:08
[SPEAKER_00]: That's kind of that uncharted territory for the worker of where we end up in this AI story.
50:13
[SPEAKER_00]: And nobody can really forecast that.
50:15
[SPEAKER_00]: But...
50:16
[SPEAKER_00]: If you're on that side of the ball of an early cycle, this whole like a million whatever jobs just poof disappeared and never existed, but we're actually humming on a, you know, an economy's humming on this basis and still strong, I do, I think that's a check for the early cycle, uh, debaters in that topic, so I wanted to throw that out and just say, what would you think it's a hot take, but interesting.
50:43
[SPEAKER_05]: I think it makes sense.
50:45
[SPEAKER_05]: I've talked to some different buddies and people, and I think me and you briefly even talked about it, but I don't think that it's some horrible situation for crypto.
50:54
[SPEAKER_05]: I think crypto comes out of this in a win-win.
50:57
[SPEAKER_05]: Again, if we were strictly triad-fi people, this is what we set on Tuesday.
51:00
[SPEAKER_05]: If we were strictly triad-fi people, we would maybe be a little bit more nervous and frustrated, but the thing about crypto here is that we benefit.
51:08
[SPEAKER_05]: We benefit from a lot of the different scenarios that can play out.
51:14
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, you know, regardless of what kind of data that we get.
51:17
[SPEAKER_05]: I think you're right, like we have to look at this as a pretty or not a pretty a potentially positive catalyst because you're right, you know, if we have growth in GDP and all these other things, then again, there could be a game of catch up there to stimulate even more upside and I think the crypto is just one of the biggest beneficiaries of this.
51:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, hey man, that's why we're here and that's what we're going to keep doing.
51:40
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, as we wind down this episode, I have a couple favors to ask again, please give this video a like it just takes a moment, click the button, click the thumbs up if you're not subscribed bottom right.
51:50
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51:51
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51:53
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51:56
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51:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, if you want more hit the description below.
52:00
[SPEAKER_00]: We have some, you know, promos for our community, the $1 trial, Brendan's trading course is open.
52:05
[SPEAKER_00]: and then also there's the free book.
52:07
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you're interested in reading the book, please check that out.
52:11
[SPEAKER_00]: That's all I got my one last thing is we a Rob Rob from Kenosha was consen thinking as Ryan's in the chat Neal is saying always be prepared to be expected for the unexpected of course Neal we appreciate everybody here my final ask take this show send it to a friend or two and say check these guys out They're really informative.
52:28
[SPEAKER_00]: We would really appreciate that and then for the rest of the week I have Brian on tomorrow.
52:33
[SPEAKER_00]: We're gonna do a full meme coin run now tomorrow.
52:35
[SPEAKER_00]: That's gonna be super fun
52:36
[SPEAKER_00]: We are going to be live at 1 p.m.
52:38
[SPEAKER_00]: EST on Friday.
52:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Check that out and then that podcast episode will drop Saturday morning on the next week.
52:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I'll post on YouTube and give you guys the schedule.
52:47
[SPEAKER_00]: I want to try and do something.
52:48
[SPEAKER_00]: I got to pitch it to the the boss's branded.
52:51
[SPEAKER_00]: I want to maybe do like something around a live show for the fed.
52:55
[SPEAKER_00]: See if we can get that passed through if not we're definitely gonna be doing a run-down next Thursday to cover it all So, uh, really really exciting week, but if you're free to Maro at one on Friday 1 p.m.
53:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's do have some fun with the meme point run-down with Brian Certainly
53:12
[SPEAKER_05]: Well, like Steven said, everyone, we really appreciate you coming in here, be in what us throughout the entire live stream.
53:19
[SPEAKER_05]: If you can't make it live, and you're watching this back at a later point, we appreciate you as well.
53:23
[SPEAKER_05]: So, thank you for watching.
53:25
[SPEAKER_05]: Thank you for tuning in, and we'll see all of you tomorrow at 1 p.m.
53:29
[SPEAKER_05]: Eastern Time with Brian.
53:31
[SPEAKER_05]: Take care.