Latest / UK Column Radio / The U.S. Empire Is Running Out of Resources — China Saw This Coming | Silk and Steel

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The U.S. Empire Is Running Out of Resources — China Saw This Coming | Silk and Steel · UK Column Radio

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It is August seventeenth, twenty twenty six, and it's just
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: before seven pm local time here in Texas As. Trump
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  Speaker 1: has decided that he is going to punish South Korea
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  Speaker 1: by drastically reducing the US involvement in joint military exercises. Now,
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  Speaker 1: why is he doing this? Because if you read Trump's
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  Speaker 1: post on true social you may think that it really
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  Speaker 1: is because he's such good friends with North Korean leader
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  Speaker 1: Kim Jong own that he doesn't want to send the
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  Speaker 1: wrong message. But then you get to the bottom of
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  Speaker 1: the post, the part where he mentions that South Korea
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  Speaker 1: told him no, that they didn't get involved with his
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  Speaker 1: war on Iran, And then we see, as we usually do,
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  Speaker 1: what is going to become Trump's attempted revenge as he
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  Speaker 1: tries to go after all of the countries that didn't
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  Speaker 1: help him out with his illegal war of aggression against Iran,
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  Speaker 1: but that also aren't listening when the US tells them
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  Speaker 1: not to trade with Iran or Russia. We're seeing a
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  Speaker 1: lot of talk about secondary sanctions and about attempts by
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  Speaker 1: the US to make everyone suffer. But what is the
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  Speaker 1: US going to do when the rest of the world
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  Speaker 1: moves on without them. Well, we got into all of
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  Speaker 1: that and more with a special guest earlier, so let's
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  Speaker 1: take a listen to that conversation. Now joining me now
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  Speaker 1: to discuss is Carl's, a geopolitical analyst and host of
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  Speaker 1: the Silk and Steel podcast. Carl, thanks so much for
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  Speaker 1: taking the time to join me.
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  Speaker 2: Hey, Rachel, thank you for you mighty Yeah, I'm glad.
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  Speaker 1: To get a chance to talk to you again.
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  Speaker 2: Now.
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  Speaker 1: I want to get your take on the latest here,
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  Speaker 1: because I know that Trump is continuing both the war
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  Speaker 1: against Iran and this pivot away from Asia. He announced
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  Speaker 1: in a post on True Social that the US will
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  Speaker 1: substantially reduce joint military exercises with South Korea. Now, in
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  Speaker 1: this post, he says that the exercises are costly, that
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  Speaker 1: they send the wrong message to North Korea, whom he
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  Speaker 1: has a very good relationship, and he's not happy with
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  Speaker 1: the fact that South Korea refused to join him in
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  Speaker 1: the denuclearization of Iran, as he called it. What do
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  Speaker 1: you make of Trump's messaging here? And does this show
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  Speaker 1: just how desperate the US military is given its increasing
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  Speaker 1: lack of resources.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, this has nothing to do with North Korea. This
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  Speaker 2: has everything to do with punishing South Korea for refusing
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  Speaker 2: to join in on his little war against Iran. And
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  Speaker 2: you're right, they're desperate. I mean, if United States Navy
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  Speaker 2: cannot open the Straight or Home Moves, what's a couple
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  Speaker 2: of ships from you know, Europe or Korea will do.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, South Korea understands this. And South Korea also,
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  Speaker 2: like many East Asian countries, depend on their energy supply
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  Speaker 2: coming from Persian Gulf, which, by the way, the Straight
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  Speaker 2: of hor Moves was open before the war. You know,
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  Speaker 2: Trump's little war is creating tremendous amount of economic hardship
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  Speaker 2: for the countries of Asia and South Korea just don't
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  Speaker 2: see this is as their wars and it's not Trump
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  Speaker 2: and Trump he's just been pity. He thought, Okay, this
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  Speaker 2: is my opportunity to get back at South Korea by
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  Speaker 2: refusing to do this joint exercise. But you know what this, ironically,
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  Speaker 2: this actually puts damage on the US imperial system because
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  Speaker 2: you know, the US Empire depends on these joint exercises
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  Speaker 2: with the its so called partners by really vassal states,
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  Speaker 2: to continue to operate. In fact, in terms of US
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  Speaker 2: Korea relationship is concerned it's specified during a time of war,
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  Speaker 2: United States will assume the joint command of the US
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  Speaker 2: and Korean military army, so Korean military would be answerable
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  Speaker 2: to a US general if a hostility were to break
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  Speaker 2: out between say North Korea. This is why the Dependagon
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  Speaker 2: has insisted these exercises are very important. You may make
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  Speaker 2: sure the two sides maintained the interoperability where you know,
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  Speaker 2: they're all the equipments will work together, their units will
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  Speaker 2: work together. But Trump B Trump is a petulant child
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  Speaker 2: about this. Uh you know, so ironically he's the one
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  Speaker 2: that's dismantling the US empire at the moment.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's crazy to watch it exactly as you said
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  Speaker 1: there for him to come out and be like, oh, well,
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  Speaker 1: I'm just such good friends with Kim Jong un. I
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  Speaker 1: don't want to send the wrong message, and I'm like,
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  Speaker 1: send the wrong message. Like as if Trump much, he
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  Speaker 1: probably hasn't read a history book of Dan in his life.
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  Speaker 1: He needs a bit of a refresher there. But the
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  Speaker 1: US is not exactly friends with North Korea, no matter
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  Speaker 1: what Trump may want to say or think about it.
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  Speaker 1: And I did think it was interesting, you know, speaking
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  Speaker 1: of the US taking its eye off of Asia. The
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  Speaker 1: US military just pulled its last aircraft carrier out of
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  Speaker 1: the region, as we have the USS George Washington being
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  Speaker 1: sent from the Pacific to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln
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  Speaker 1: in the Middle East, and the Lincoln has been at
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  Speaker 1: sea for over two hundred and fifty days. There have
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  Speaker 1: been increasing reports of major issues that include a lack
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  Speaker 1: of food, broken down plumbing on board, and multiple sailors
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  Speaker 1: jumping off the ship. I know that this is symbolic,
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  Speaker 1: but it's also a very real picture of the current
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  Speaker 1: stage of the dying US Empire. How do you see
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  Speaker 1: the latest updates and what do they tell us about
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  Speaker 1: the reality of the US military and the position it's in.
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  Speaker 2: This shows a serious resource constraint face the US Empire,
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  Speaker 2: trying to be a global hedge among to be at
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  Speaker 2: all places at all time. That has the Iran war
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  Speaker 2: show that it seemed possible United States. In fact, the
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  Speaker 2: whole pivot to a that was piloted under Obama administration
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  Speaker 2: under then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton right now is
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  Speaker 2: a complete fiasco. In fact, you know when they say
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  Speaker 2: pivot to Asia, they're really talking about pivot to East Asia.
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  Speaker 2: They were they weren't talking about pivot to West Asia,
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  Speaker 2: but that's what's happening right now because you know, Israel
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  Speaker 2: has uh has done a lot to drag United States
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  Speaker 2: into the Middle East quagmire. And US military they just
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  Speaker 2: you know, even though supposedly has eleven aircraft carrier attack
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  Speaker 2: group on paper, but really it could only deploy about
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  Speaker 2: four at any given time. And this is why now
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  Speaker 2: they have to take the resources from East Asia to
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  Speaker 2: deploy to Iraq. They already did that with the fat missiles, UH,
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  Speaker 2: the missout defense system they had in South Korea, and
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  Speaker 2: now they're sending their aircraft carrier. UH. This is the
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  Speaker 2: whole street or crisis is analogous to the Swish Canal
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  Speaker 2: moment for the US Empire. So Swiss Canal crisis was
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  Speaker 2: when the British and French they still try to assert
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  Speaker 2: themselves as the old colonial power and they try to
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  Speaker 2: resist Egypt's attempt to nationalize the Swiss Canal and they
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  Speaker 2: sent their troops and that's when the other power stepped
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  Speaker 2: in the Soviet Union and the United States said don't
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  Speaker 2: do that, and it turns out they couldn't because post
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  Speaker 2: war France and Britain actually dependent on aid from the
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  Speaker 2: United States to keep their economy going, to keep their
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  Speaker 2: military going. So once US cut of eight, they have
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  Speaker 2: to recall back their troops. And that really showed that
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  Speaker 2: they were truly paper tigers. And that marks kind of
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  Speaker 2: the fall of the both the US, both the British
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  Speaker 2: and the French colonial empires. Now in case the United States,
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  Speaker 2: that moment is now the straighter Homos has really shown
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  Speaker 2: the US itself is a paper tiger. And this will
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  Speaker 2: cause again calls into the question of the logic of
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  Speaker 2: US imperial system. A lot of the so called US
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  Speaker 2: ally they joined the US hosting US basis on their
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  Speaker 2: soil with the expectation that US to provide a security umbrella.
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  Speaker 2: But it turns out hosting US basis is not an asset,
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  Speaker 2: it's a liability. It gets it makes you a target,
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  Speaker 2: as all the golf countries are finding out right now,
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  Speaker 2: and now all the all the East Asian countries are
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  Speaker 2: realizing they're not even top priority for the United States.
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  Speaker 2: You know, they can't compete with the Golden Boy in
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  Speaker 2: Israel and and and they will have to come up.
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  Speaker 2: You know, I'm sure they're not saying that publicly, but
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  Speaker 2: I'm sure, in the in the in the behind, behind
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  Speaker 2: the closed rooms. Now they're trying to come together is
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  Speaker 2: an alternative to the US led security system because they
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  Speaker 2: can no longer count on the United States.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess all of these Southeast Asian country countries
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  Speaker 1: are learning the hard way, the lesson that Ukraine had
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  Speaker 1: to learn, which is that Israel comes first, and if
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  Speaker 1: Israel wants a war against Iran and the US gets
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  Speaker 1: into it, well now we've got to send all of
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  Speaker 1: our resources there. And it has been interesting to kind
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  Speaker 1: of see the dance that the Hawks in Washington are doing,
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  Speaker 1: and they're arguing that, well, if the US takes its
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  Speaker 1: eye off of China, then Beijing is going to target
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  Speaker 1: Taiwan or South Korea or Japan, because the US still
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  Speaker 1: dreams of trying to contain China. And like you were saying,
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  Speaker 1: it's not as if, you know, looking at the assets
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  Speaker 1: that the US has taken out of the region, those
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  Speaker 1: aren't going to be enough to stop China if Beijing
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  Speaker 1: wanted some sort of all out conflict, which of course
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  Speaker 1: it doesn't. But when you look at China, are you
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  Speaker 1: watching for any movement on their end or are they
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  Speaker 1: still trying to kind of patiently wait and look for
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  Speaker 1: opportunities to work with the countries in the region. They're
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  Speaker 1: neighbors that are finding out the hard way just how
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  Speaker 1: much the US cares about them, you.
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  Speaker 2: Know, the assumption that China will take this opportunity to
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  Speaker 2: launch some sort of a surprise attack on Taiwan. This
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  Speaker 2: is more. This has more to say about the US
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  Speaker 2: mentality and then the Chinese plan, because US mentality has
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  Speaker 2: always been playing a zero sum game and always use
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  Speaker 2: a military force to force a solution, whereas China has
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  Speaker 2: been very patient. Their long term strategic goal is to
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  Speaker 2: still to integrate Taiwan back into their motherlands. But they
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  Speaker 2: also realize that the regional stability is far more important
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  Speaker 2: because if a war were to be fought in East Asia,
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  Speaker 2: you will be all the countries around it, including China,
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  Speaker 2: that will be affected. And and this is something that
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  Speaker 2: none of these countries want, by the way, you know,
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  Speaker 2: nobody wants the war to visit their soil, to devastate
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  Speaker 2: their economy. And and Chinese plan is such that their
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  Speaker 2: plan is to build themselves up until the gravitational pull
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  Speaker 2: of the Chinese economy and Chinese influence will naturally draw
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  Speaker 2: country toward it. This is what the swins said, you know,
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  Speaker 2: to fight to to to win without a battle, that
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  Speaker 2: is the best of fighting a war. And and that
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  Speaker 2: that that's the Chinese strategy. And so they're not gonna
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  Speaker 2: make any military move just because what the United States
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  Speaker 2: does or does not do. You know, you China operate
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  Speaker 2: on their own schedule, right like Swinsu said, don't don't
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  Speaker 2: let your enemy set your set your battle plan. You
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  Speaker 2: fight the war on your own terms, at your own time,
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  Speaker 2: and you own in place of your own choosing. That's
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  Speaker 2: what China has been doing. And China's focus right now
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  Speaker 2: is its own economy to make sure given the current
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  Speaker 2: straight of Homus crisis, Chinese economy can still humming along,
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  Speaker 2: and they are doing a good job of that because
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  Speaker 2: they had been stockpiling oil for two years prior to
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  Speaker 2: the outbreak of the war. You know, on twenty twenty
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  Speaker 2: four and twenty twenty five, the world oil price has
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  Speaker 2: been at a relatively historically low level. The oil analysts
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  Speaker 2: actually find out that the world consumption of oil was
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  Speaker 2: less than the production of the oil worldwide, So everybody
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  Speaker 2: kind of expected a crashing of the oil prices, but
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  Speaker 2: that didn't happen. And it turns out because China has
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  Speaker 2: been buying a massive month to store in their strategic
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  Speaker 2: oil reserve, and now those oil came in. You know,
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  Speaker 2: this is the time, the moment that China has been
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  Speaker 2: preparing for. In fact, they're better prepared than most other
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  Speaker 2: country in the world because China has the largest strategic
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  Speaker 2: oil reserve in the world, larger than the rest of
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  Speaker 2: the countries combined. This is a classic by low Sell High.
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  Speaker 2: So when the oil price now has risen, China has
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  Speaker 2: reduced its oil import by half, you know, like more
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  Speaker 2: than five point five million barrels a day. In fact,
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  Speaker 2: that's what's saving the oil market right now. This is
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  Speaker 2: why the oil price has not gone to one hundred
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  Speaker 2: and twenty five one hundred and fifty barrels of oil,
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  Speaker 2: because China has cut back on its demand. And now
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  Speaker 2: people are asking, oh, why why is trying to do it? That?
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  Speaker 2: Why China, you know, not putting the herd on the
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  Speaker 2: United States by continuing by oil. But that's not how
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  Speaker 2: China think. China do not wake up in the morning
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  Speaker 2: and say how I'm going to hurt the United States.
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  Speaker 2: China wake up in the morning thinking Okay, how can
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  Speaker 2: I make it a day better for myself? And so
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  Speaker 2: they that's what they do. They in MOUs long term
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  Speaker 2: strategic planning, which is working out right now, and they
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  Speaker 2: are China is sitting pretty a sea of oil, and
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  Speaker 2: they are also switching to other technology. Like China possessed
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  Speaker 2: the world's most advanced code to oil technology and which
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: became profitable at seventy five dollars seventy dollars per barrel
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  Speaker 2: oil price, and now I think the current oil prices
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: were like eighty eighty for the West Texas Intermedia and
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: like eighty nine for Brent. So you know, China will
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: be fine. China will switch to using converting code to oil.
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: China make most of its fertilizers fun coal, and China
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  Speaker 2: also had a massive build up of sustainable energy like
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: when solar and that's come rapidly coming online. They also
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: did a big drive tour EV and electrification of their
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  Speaker 2: high speed rail. So China is all set. China is like,
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  Speaker 2: this is right now. China doesn't need to do anything.
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  Speaker 2: They can just sit back and manage the US decline.
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  Speaker 1: You know.
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  Speaker 2: On the one hand, China also don't want us to collapse. Overnight,
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  Speaker 2: because that will put a greate, tremendous amount of chaos
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  Speaker 2: into the international system. So what China is trying to
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  Speaker 2: do is trying to make sure United States does not
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  Speaker 2: blow up the whole planet with it. And that is
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  Speaker 2: China's plan.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, the entire world looking at the US and going, Okay,
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  Speaker 1: please don't blow up our entire planet, right, we are
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  Speaker 1: not ready for that. And yeah, I think you had
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  Speaker 1: a really good point there. And the fact that China
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  Speaker 1: is focused on itself and that is going to be
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  Speaker 1: really the end of the US Empire is this focus
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  Speaker 1: on everyone else? How can we create destruction and chaos?
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  Speaker 1: How can we hurt the key pillars of the multipolar world.
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  Speaker 1: They are so focused on that that they're not looking
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  Speaker 1: inward at the ongoing collapse of the U US Empire.
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  Speaker 1: They just are looking outward at are we hurting Russia
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  Speaker 1: and China and Iran and so forth and so on
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  Speaker 1: and get in. Part of that, of course, goes into
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  Speaker 1: the Trump administration saying, oh, yeah, we'll have an indefinite
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: naval blockade of the Straight of Woor moves because they're
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: hoping that not only will it hurt Iran and hit
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: the global economy to a certain extent, but that it
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: will hurt China, and I did think it was notable
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: to kind of piggyback off of what you were saying.
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  Speaker 1: The Financial Times had a recent article where they basically
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  Speaker 1: admitted all of this. They said, look, for two decades,
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  Speaker 1: China's policy makers have been preoccupied with reducing the country's
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  Speaker 1: dependence on imported oil and gas and its consequent vulnerability
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: to a naval blockade in any future conflict with the US.
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  Speaker 1: As a result, they say, China's energy strategy has been
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  Speaker 1: vindicated by the US.
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  Speaker 2: War on Iran.
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  Speaker 1: So when I look at this, I go, okay, the
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: pivot to Asia was not a secret, right, the US
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: becoming more and more hawkish courts China and the US
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: cozying up to various countries, making them its vascal states
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: like you were talking about with their partnership or I
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: guess lording over South Korea being like, hey, we're in
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: charge of your military if anything happens. None of that
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: has been done in secret. So are you surprised that
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: the US hasn't been able to plan better on its end?
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: Then it hasn't taken a cue from China to realize, okay,
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: this is how you actually grow versus this is how
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: you just create endless death and destruction.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: Rachel, you know Trump is ruling the country by watching
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: the movement in the stock market. I don't think he
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: understand about long term planning. I mean this has been
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: the US corporate culture for a long term time now.
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: Now everybody watched the quarterly earning report. You know who
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: school what happens in five, five, ten years? You know,
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: nobody will be still be in that but leadership position
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: in five ten years, right, there's election to be one.
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  Speaker 2: So everything is geared to or very short, short term thinking.
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  Speaker 2: And whereas China they plan, they have like, you know,
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  Speaker 2: five year plans. Now they're unlike their fifteen five year plans.
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: They Whereas China have this long term planning, US Empire
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: is definitely not. But on on the other hand, you know,
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: United US Navy has been talking about blockade in China
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  Speaker 2: for decades, and China saw the signs they said, oh, okay,
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: so they plan to blockade US. We better prepare for
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: that scenario. And that's what is paid off because US
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: Navy keep on talking about the Strait of Malacca being
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: a choking point for the vital Chinese energy supply, and
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: China's like, okay, we got to prepare for that. We
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: let's build the Belt and Road initiative. Let's build up
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: ports all over the world so we are not dependent
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  Speaker 2: on one singular point of failure. This is also white
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: China and Russia now is opening the polar so grow
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: they're they're they're piloting the the marine time traffic through
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: the Arctic region to reach Europe, which actually turns out
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: a lot shorter distance than going around the Cape of
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: Good Hope around Africa, like most of the shipping are
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: doing doing right now because the closure of the Red Sea,
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: and so China has been preparing for an alternative world
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  Speaker 2: that's that's different from the one, the unipolar moment dominated
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: by the US hedgemonk at the top. And and a
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: lot of that is in response for publicly stated aim
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: of the US military. You know, for example, the choke
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: China's choke off China's energy is quite so China has
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  Speaker 2: prepared for that and their plans, as you mentioned, has
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  Speaker 2: paid off. Uh. This was basically this whole straight oh
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: Home Moose crisis. You can think of it as a
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: trial round for China for preparing for US blockade of
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: straight up block and he tears out China will be okay,
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure about United States.
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the US seems to think that it's going to
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: go into this. I mean, apparently Trump has decided that
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: the straight of war moves is going to be a
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: US territory. Now, So speaking of not really having any planning,
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: you look at China and exactly as you said, it's like,
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: oh no, they've been planning for this for a while
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: and taking all of the cues that the US is sending.
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: And speaking of the just erratic, off the wall statements
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: that we've gotten from the US president, Well, he's also
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: now threatening to bomb Ohman, a key US ally in
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: the Middle East, like they're on your side because Oman
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: is daring to have direct negotiations with Iran over the
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: future of traffic and the straight of war moves. Now,
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: maybe Trump is just jealous because you don't exactly see
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: Iran picking up the phone and calling him. But when
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: it comes to the current position that the US is
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: in with this ongoing war against Iran, how do you
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: see the position that they're in a especially as we
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: are now at the end of this sixty day period,
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: the memorandum of understanding is officially over and we're moving
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: into the next phase.
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: Of the war. Yeah, I mean, this is another measure
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: of desperation. You know, Oman has been the neutral party.
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: In fact, Oman has been the one acting as a
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: facilitator to bring all side to the negotiation table. And
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: Trump is throwing a tantrum because you know, Oman and
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: Uran had negotiated to work out a mechanism for charging
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: service fee through the straight of hor moves, which by
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: the way, it's completely within Omani and Iranian territorial waters.
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: And so again this just shows that Trump has really
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: no option. They're flailing around, they're throwing fecies on the
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: wall to see what sticks at this point. And this
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: is why also Scott Besson has recently hinted that they
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: plan to crank up the economic sanction on Iran even more.
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: But to our third countries like China, they're they're they're
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: talking about placing secondary sanction on Chinese banks for financing
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: purchasing of Uran in oil. Like if that were to happen,
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: that will throw a huge ranch into the world financial system.
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: You know, previously China already showed willingness to stand up
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: to US sanction by ordering domestic oil refiners to not
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: comply to the US sanction because the US had place
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: some independent oil refiners in China under sanction for purchasing
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: Iranian oil. And the nature of US anction is, you know,
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: anybody who do business with these these entity, even if
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: they're Chinese companies doing business with this, with the other
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: Chinese companies, they will be put on the blacklist of
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: the US Treasury Department and place under sanction. But China's
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: governments stepped in and said no, no, no, no, no
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: company is going to have gonna comply with the U
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: s sanction otherwise we will put you on our blacklist.
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: And so so I expect the same and if they,
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: I hope this is a lot of noise. It's just
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump is trying to create leverage at the negotiation table.
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: But if they do roll out financial sanction against major
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: Chinese national banks, this is gonna this could potentially creator
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: the whole world economy because you know, China is the
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: world's largest trading nation right now, and uh, the other
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: country are increasingly looking to China to provide an alternative
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: to the US dominated financial world, you know, because as
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: Russia find out, you can just be kicked off of
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: the you can you can just be be kicked off,
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: and then people are are now moved a lot of bricks.
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: Country in particularly, they're already moving to the sipsystem to
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: with the Chinese yuan as an underlying basis. And in
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: Brazil recently they just announced they're going to start borrowing
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: in Chinese yuan instead of US dollars because the President
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: Lula has said multiple times the world needs an alternative
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: to a US dominated financial system because otherwise the twenty
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: first century will end up like the beginning of the
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: twentieth centuries. This is a very stark warning because the
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: beginning of the twentieth century was two world wars. So
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: the rest of the world is already prepared to move
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: on without the United States, while Donald Trump continued to
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: throw his childish tantrums.
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a great way to put it in. It's
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: also interesting to the timing of all of this because
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: the US is also trying to do a version of
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: this against Russia. Right We've got that Lindsey Graham sanctions
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: package that is so focused on secondary sanctions going after
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: countries that want to buy Russia and oil and gas
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: and other goods. And when I look at this, I go, oh,
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: it's interesting how they tried this first with Cuba, Right,
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: They really hit Cuba with these secondary sanctions that came
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: under the Trump administration. Everyone at the time was kind
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: of going, are you sure about this? Is this really
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: what you're going to do? Now they're seeing the ways
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: in which they can hurt Cuba's economy. But that's just
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: one small example versus if you go after Russia and
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: Iran and ultimately China with all of these secondary sanctions,
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: it's going to create a lot of chaos initially. But yeah, then,
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: like you were saying, these countries are going to find
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: ways to work together. They're going to do what Russia
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: did when they got kicked out of the Swift system,
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: which they said, okay, well what's next. Right, They're not
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: just going to throw up their hands and cease to exist,
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: although Trump seems to think that that is a possibility
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: on his end. But what does all of this mean
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: for the multipolar world moving forward and some of the
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: changes that we could see, even if it is painful
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: for a little while. I mean, we're getting to the
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: point where the US Empire is kind of being lowered
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: down and it's kicking itself out of the club, and
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: everyone else is moving on without it.
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly talking about kicking itself out of the club.
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: The post World War two system has largely been constructed
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: under the guidance of the United States. US was the
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: one who right all the rules for the international law
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: and much of the post World war system. But now
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: US is finding these international laws constraining on its own actions.
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: So they decided, you know what, we don't need international law.
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: We just have rule based international system, except they don't
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: tell people what those rules are or who made those rules.
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: And so now it's Russia and China ironically that's emphasizing
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: on the importance of upholding the international law. They are
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: the one who are emphasizing the importance of the United
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: Nations and and and I think that's that's what's uh,
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: what's going to happen. The United States is making itself
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: a rogue, rogue state at this point. Uh, you know,
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: outside of the payoffs of the international laws and that
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: that is itself has helped to create. So I think
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: this is why, you know, if you look at the
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: action of U. S and it's sometimes European vassal states.
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: They're trying to create a wall. They're trying to wall
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: themselves off found the rest of the world. But this
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: is there. They are trying to replay the Cod War
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: one dotto because they think, oh, okay, we won the
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: Cod War. We know how that that that that win?
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: Uh you know, there was two camps, the Sylvia camp
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: the US camp, and eventually we won. And this is
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: this is the Code War two dotto. If they were
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: to start this is definitely not going to play like
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: the last time, because first of all, the Bricks country
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: combined has much more population, manufacturing base, and economic power
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: than the US. And it's so called international community that
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: consists of the US vassal states. And you know, this
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: is also why they're really kicking up a big stink
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: about the you know AI, because US seeks to dominate
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: AI around the world, but now people are turning to
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: the Chinese AI. People now have alternatives. I don't see
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: the US plan will succeed. What what they will actually
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: do is following the step of the Soviet Union. If
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: the Cod War two dot oh is what they're trying
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: to pursue, because what they don't realize the whole power
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: balance has shifted and decide decisively shifted to the yeast.
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: Absolutely, and yeah, we're watching as so many within the
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: US establishment, they are so used to the US being
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: the top dog and no other country being able to
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: stand up to them, and that's how they think it's
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: always going to be. That's how Donald Trump certainly seems
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: to think it's always going to be. But now we
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: are seeing some major alternatives, and all of those alternatives
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: are coming and working together, standing up to the US
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: like never before. I know that there is certainly a
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: lot at stake here all around, and I really appreciate
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: you taking the time to join me today to break
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: down all of the latest here. Carl zaw a geopolitical
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: analyst and host of the Silk and Steel podcast, Thank
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: you so much for your time and insight.
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: Thank you, Rachel.
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: Anytime, if anything in this video resonated with you, be
• 29:52
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• 29:55
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• 29:59
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• 30:01
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• 30:04
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• 30:08
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• 30:12
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• 30:17
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• 30:21
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• 30:25
  Speaker 1: so much for all of your support, and I'll see
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: you next time.