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War, oil, and tariffs: The chain reaction that could hit your wallet next · Cultural Wars | America Out Loud News

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Broadcasting around the world.
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This is on the record with Christian Briggs.
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Serious talk about what's happening around the world and how it affects you.
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Unfiltered truth for a world on edge.
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Follow us on X at BMC underscore H AM live in three, two, one.
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Okay, welcome back, everybody.
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This is Christian Briggs, host of the On the Record, and we are going to be talking details about Iran today.
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Why is Iran putting up such a fight?
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And with our special topic, we have a special guest, Mr.
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Christopher Walker.
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Um not to be computed with Christopher Walkin.
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Uh look the same, but don't talk the same.
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How does he do these?
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I don't know.
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But I do know this.
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Yeah, that's that's how it sounds.
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Anyway, with that semi hero, probably not hero.
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No, never more.
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Never again.
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All right.
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We're gonna talk about Iran.
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We've got we've got a great show.
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Let me tell you something.
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Today's show, we're gonna dive deep into the whole Iranian conflict.
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There's been so much uh information flying around that the information has uh been let's just say lacking substance.
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It's a lot of surface level things are being said.
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But let's just let's dive down deep.
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What is the core?
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What is the core that makes Trump so abdomen about getting into Iran and destroying their entire uh entire base of uh nuclear energy uh manufacturing, um, you know, the rich uranium, and now we do know they had some enriched uranium that was definitely weapons grade, but the real question comes back to what exactly is the amount of uranium that needs to be enriched in order to have nuclear weapons.
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I thought the bunker buster last last year was it October, September when they dropped that big sucker.
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I don't know.
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August.
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Was it August?
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Okay, August of 25 when they dropped that big one.
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I thought that destroyed everything.
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So we're gonna go down deep here and let's talk a little bit about it because there has been so many people asking the question, why are we still running?
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Oh, is June?
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Yeah, that's almost a year ago.
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Yeah, yeah.
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Golly, time goes by fast.
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I mean, I know I have an age in that year.
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I know I'm held with Trump because they're a little bit, but let's let's let's dive down here.
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Let's look at some headlines here today.
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So when you're looking at what Trump's attempting to do is to make sure or to ensure, I guess both of it, make sure that no ships are coming or going that would land well armaments.
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Um that's that's one.
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No oil would be out, even though he has limited some amount of oil to be uh traded, you know, to leave the strait because it is obviously he doesn't want 200 oil that that would not be good.
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But the real question is is what's going on.
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I heard was it uh a day or two ago when they stopped a Chinese ship from goodwill was a goodwill items or something.
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I'm like, what was it?
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Shoes and hats and t-shirts and shorts.
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I don't know if that's the same goodwill.
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I don't know.
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So no, I don't think it was uh I don't think it was the donations from uh people's leftover closets from the winter.
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See Nick or stuff.
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I tend to agree on that.
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Well, I don't think it was leftovers from Christmas.
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What do you think it was?
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What do you think it was?
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I mean, obviously China has a very um strategic interest in seeing um America get bogged down in a uh I hate to use the Q word, but uh no quagmire.
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Yeah, and I think you you're gonna see Russia and China continue to you know do what they can to put their thumbs on the scale to try to make this a long-term conflict, a lot of what we've been doing in Ukraine with Russia.
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So, you know, it's not surprising to see tankers and other uh ships from China coming into Iran and try to deliver potentially clandestine weapons or other types of material to kind of aid the Iranian leadership, what's left of it, um, in terms of uh, you know, kind of prolonging any kind of uh military conflict.
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So um obviously I think the president uh was was uh correct in moving this from a kind of Iranian uh uh threats of uh you know kind of mining the straight-of-forward moves and closing it down to saying, okay, fine.
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Well, your ships are also not gonna get through and allowing for uh you know, kind of a re resetting of of the naval uh conflict there.
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So, you know, our Navy um is executing perfectly.
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I mean, again, this is a situation where we see our Navy working very, very hard, talking to this ship for six hours to uh keep them from running to uh you know do the most humane effort they can to uh dis uh no dis make it not be able to go anymore, whatever we're trying to say.
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Um where you see the Iranians actually attacking civilians and trying to you know attack civilian boats rather than our A Navy trying to actually just say, look, humanely we're going to dis you know uh make this uh make this boat uh no longer operative.
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So um, you know, the end targeting all an injury room, all that type of stuff.
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So well done by the military.
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Um strategically well done by Trump.
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I think though we can we can all agree that the straight of four moves situation is kind of a crisis of our own making.
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And we need to, you know, it seems to me that we may need to have thought that through a little bit more, but this is a president who you know makes a lot of decisions on his own, and I think that's uh both uh a positive and potentially negative as we're seeing it with straight up for moves.
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Okay, I buy that.
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I buy that.
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Now, if if that is the case, and we got a president here who is proactive, he's a proactive guy.
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Yeah, okay.
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He's not reactionary.
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Sorry.
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He he has uh a sense of dynamite that explodes quickly to be able to confront confrontation.
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Like he knows, he can tell.
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He's got like that sixth sense.
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I call it the spidey sense of Trump.
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Yeah.
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I mean, his kids are brilliant.
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Uh they have a great success in many ways, not just in real estate, and they had this spidey sense.
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He knew he knew he didn't know who did not have to convince him that Iran was a problem.
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No, well, he was he's known all along.
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I mean, goodness, he talked about carved islands since the 80s.
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So I mean, he's known.
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I think this is a man who polished geopolitic.
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I mean, obviously, he was uh um, you know, a young adult in the in 1979 when the Iranian conflict uh initially happened and the Shah was um exiled, and you know, we've seen the the Riot Poisan takeover of Iran in 1979.
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So we're seeing that, and uh Trump's kind of been a student of that.
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For him to continue to have talked about Carl Raller from the 80s to now.
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Um, I think that's a very interesting, you know, kind of piece for him to understand the geopolitics of it.
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Um the question is what do we do from here?
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You know, the story from the Wall Street Journal this weekend was very um enlightening in terms of saying, look, he doesn't want to see massive casualties, he doesn't want to see and rightfully so.
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You know, the story from the Wall Street Journal this weekend was very um enlightening in terms of saying look, he doesn't want to see massive casualties, he doesn't want to see, and rightfully so.
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I mean, I I think that's a a good trait of his.
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I mean, I think that's a a good trait of his.
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Um so you know, that there's a um reticence to put soldiers on the ground.
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Um so, you know, that there's a um reticence to put soldiers on the ground.
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There's reticence to kind of not reticence to learn from the conflict in Iraq, but but you know, the positive side of one year from Iraq.
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There's reticence to kind of not reticence to learn from the con uh the conflict in Iraq, but but you know, the positive side of one year from Iraq.
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We don't want a 10-year quagmire where hundreds of thousands of soldiers are.
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We don't want a 10-year quagmire where hundreds of thousands of soldiers are killed or or wounded in a conflict that people really don't understand the mission.
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So the mission here, um, you know, we've gotten several different uh uh justifications from the White House, but it you know, it's really about Iran not getting a nuclear weapon, they continue to try to pursue one.
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It's about trying to break stability to the region.
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I think this is a continuation somewhat of the Abraham Accords from Trump's first turn, where trying to create um more of a balance of alliances in the region in a way that's been so unstable for so long.
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I think he's a president who doesn't want to, you know, look at the end of his two terms and say, okay, the the Middle East was still a mess when I was there.
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If he could make efforts to try to make it better, he's gonna do it.
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So I think that's all part of the calculus for him.
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Um we'll see how it plays out.
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I mean, obviously he's um he's in the middle, but I think in the age of social media and 24-7 cable news and even more the millennial generation coming up, the attention span of folks who are consuming the news is incredibly short.
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And so we're only the six weeks into this, and there's people talking about defeat and irreparable damage, and I think that's just the law marker of history would disagree.
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We have the resources, we have the weaponry, we have the skill, we have um you know the diplomacy, we have the world generally on our side on this.
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Um, all those things point to some type of positive revolution re resolution for the United States.
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It's just a matter of having the patience and will to see if they're make sure it happens.
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Yeah, we're gonna we're gonna see this is gonna be a little bit more prolonged, isn't it?
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I it it obviously yeah, I mean, I think we we saw there were news reports that the president was kind of told it would take seven to ten days.
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So I think he already thinks this is prolonged compared to where I think he wanted it at the beginning.
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Um but you know, that's okay.
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Uh well Burr is a Dar Don Rumsolt said any war plan um is thrown out the the first day you execute it.
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I mean, there's the theater and the um the the the enemy has his say as well.
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And in this case, um, you know, we've seen a straight-for Moosby result and other things.
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So um this is a long-term um strategy to really prevent Iran from being in a position to seek and just disrupt the Middle East in a way that they've been doing for 40 plus years.
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The question comes right down to is okay, so maybe we slow them down.
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Where what do we go if they kind of uh what is the Trump trend to seek a 10-year?
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Well, he wanted a 20-year moratorium on uh energy, or energy.
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Uh they've agreed to 10.
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He doesn't want 10, he wants a minimum of 15.
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Well, that's not good.
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I think I should be indefinitely.
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I I agree.
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And I, you know, we'll see where he we'll see where he lands on this.
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I uh again, I I don't understand I don't think Iran has much of a position of strength in these negotiations in the first place.
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And I think that's one of the reasons why J.D.
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Vance um left in Pakistan a couple weeks ago, because I think one, they're not an honest broker in terms of the of the discussion in the um and then in the negotiations that they're trying to do, but on top of that, they're unreasonable in terms of their demands.
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They they don't have a strong hand to play here.
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Um, you know, we've taken out a lot of their leadership, could take out any leadership that we want to.
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Uh, you know, I I think that's a callous way to say it.
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Ultimately, that's their leaders, and we want to be um cognizant of that.
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But um, this is a uh the Iran has a weak position here.
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I don't think them say rattling or pretending to think that they have a strong position, I think is um unique.
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I would also add that the their biggest leverage point that they've seen so far has been successful has been a straight or four moves.
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But I also think that is a longer term um issue for Europe and China than it is for the U.S.
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I think well for 5% of our oil comes to the straight information.
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Five is not much.
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But um, which is the global markets matter for us, and so Brent Brent crude and other things going up dramatically over the last since you know March or since late February is in of itself a problem, but over the long haul American infrastructure and American energy prices can withstand that a lot longer than China and the Europe and the Europeans can.
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So from a standpoint of the actual um, you know, power of various players in this game, and it's not a game, but you know, uh this game of risk, as I would like to say.
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Um, you know, there is uh there's a ticking clock for Europe and China to find a quicker solution than the U.S.
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needs.
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And so I think again, that's more leverage for President Trump as he's making these negotiations happen.
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Yeah, I agree with that.
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So as these negotiations continue, the real bottom line is what are we going to get up at the end of the day?
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I mean, you've got oil prices that have literally uh risen to levels that I wasn't even sure was possible uh just six months ago.
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I didn't think the conflict that there was a conflict, there was obviously talk since last year.
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There's been talk about this Iran stuff for 18, 24 months that if they're in Richmond continues at some point, and it I thought the Biden administration would do something, but then I remembered Biden and Obama kind of aligned themselves, Biden would do whatever Barack would tell him to do.
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So at the end of the day, Biden was beholden to the um kind of the will of others, and he wouldn't have even known what to do had he even had a decent original thought of his own.
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So it comes back to the idea for Obama was to make Iran the centrifuge of the Middle East.
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They wanted him to be the lightning rod, you know, here where the Actola was where they are that ran Iran.
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And I think that Trump realized that that would be a my God, can you imagine with a nuclear bomb?
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Could you imagine?
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Well, in a nuclear bomb that they would use.
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Right.
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And I think that's the other piece of it.
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It's it's not a matter of just attainment, it's a matter of um a radical regime that will be willing to use it on their neighbors, on folks they don't like, on you know, there's an unstable element.
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They've been funding terrorist organizations and uh, you know, assault groups um in Israel and uh across the globe for 40 plus years.
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So it's not a matter of um just the acquisition.
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I think it's also the understanding and knowledge that they would use it.
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And that is uh that is a destabilizing force that the world can have.
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It's not just in America, and I think America is leading here.
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President Trump is leading, but um it is good is a better for the world than a more stable um uh element of Iran um emerges from this conflict.
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That a more stable um element of Iran um emerges from this conflict.
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It hasn't happened yet.
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It hasn't happened yet.
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I mean, we again we've seen um we've seen a lot of uh protest, uh crackdowns in Iran, you know, there's not a lot of information coming out of there, by the way, either.
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I mean, we again we've seen um we've seen a lot of uh protest, uh crackdowns in Iran, you know, there's not a lot of information coming out of there, by the way, either.
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The internet's been shut down, and and you know, this is what happens in um tyrannical regimes that it's hard to get information from the actual population.
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The internet's been shut down, and and you know, this is what happens in um tyrannical regimes that it's hard to get information from the actual population, but we know that um rank and file Iranians don't like their leadership, don't like the
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But we know that um rank and file Iranians don't like their leadership, don't like the oppression that they're seeing there.
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The question is, what is it going to take and when is the opportunity for them to seize their country back?
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That's the big challenge.
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And we we had this same IV on in Iraq and it didn't happen.
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And so from a similar and and Afghanistan for that matter, I mean, well, if the Taliban is back in charge in Afghanistan, that's not uh crazy.
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That's not a um it's not an outlandish position to think that there might not be a worse um leadership that comes out of Iran through this.
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But um, if there's a way that a stable democracy and ally comes out of this from the people in the random that actually um are friends of the West and friends of a more stable global order, um, you know, that would be a positive.
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It's just if you live in Iran and you're under constant threat of of the IRG coming in and um taking uh taking your family and and murdering them, um, you're gonna be very quiet right now as you see what happens.
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And so that's I think again, what you're seeing on the ground.
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There's just not a lot of movement because I think a lot of people are trying to see a wait, see what happens.
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Yeah.
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So Halliburton uh says they're still seeing early signs of a resurgence in North American oil fields.
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Uh with the Iran conflict in the Middle East production prices have been drilling up, and obviously our our North American production is now seeing increasing prices.
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And what's interesting about what I was reading the other day was if the North American production goes up, the demand maintains, okay.
15:58
The demand will also increase from a domestic level from usage and a domestic level of exports, right?
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International buying for domestic oil.
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Now we're talking about seeing tens of billions of dollars in extra cash from parts of the world.
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It could be Japan, it could be Asia, South America.
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A lot of the production is limited to just certain parts of the world.
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A lot of these countries have zero production or limited production, and some of them don't even have any refining.
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So not only are we going to get oil and natural gas, but we could get distillants, right?
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So refined into gasoline and diesel based products.
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This could be huge.
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One of the things Halliburton's chief executive officer Jeff Miller said for the company's uh first quarter earnings that they're looking really good.
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Like they're looking really good.
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And the world's biggest provider of fracking service, which is Halliburton as well.
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They're indication that shale shale drillers are are heating U.S.
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President Donald Trump's call to increase production as prices teeter at that $90 a barrel average.
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And so now when you look at all the potential, we could get 100, 200 billion dollars in an extra income of oil prices from international buyers.
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That goes right into the banks here.
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That goes right into production and continuously increased production or increasing distribution, hiring.
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I was um what's I talking to?
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I did a show last week on a major network and they were asking me, what is the downside pitfalls of higher oil prices?
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I said, well, I mean, there's gonna be inflation.
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But the amount of money we make by selling that oil, that natural gas or chemicals, whatever, you know, oil-based stuff.
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And the jobs, when you have $90 oil, you're hiring a million people.
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And people go, what do you mean?
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Well, you're gonna drill more because it's not more profitable.
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You're going to need more trucks to up uh and load this up, uh, get it to the refineries.
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Why?
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Well, because you're increasing production, you're up in the limits.
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You're you're upping the amount of oil coming out of the ground because you're getting so much more for it, so you're going to increase the capacity of any given well.
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You're going to refrack, you're gonna sh you're going to redrill, you're gonna expand.
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And so all of the people in the witch that go from the drillers to the truckers to the refineries to the retail, and you're gonna see, because remember, it's not per penny that they make um gasoline at a gas station.
18:16
It's a percentage.
18:17
Yeah.
18:17
That's right.
18:17
Okay, it's a percentage.
18:18
So if you're making 10% at $2.50 or $3 a gallon, that's not bad.
18:23
But now it's at $4 a gallon, you're making more.
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Okay, you're getting more pennies per gallon, and you're increasing revenues and profitability by the short owner.
18:33
Potentially, but how is that passing off to the rest of the economy is my question.
18:37
I mean, you know, we've had oils hovering around $70 up until you know the end of February, and now it's you know, $100, $98 a barrel right now, which just means it's a not a you know, another 20%, but what a $17% increase um over the last two months or six weeks, really.
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That's a 17% increase on the economy because of the transportation everything.
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I mean, you know, you know, looking at airline flights is more expensive, looking at um, you know, just everything that's just day-to-day stuff that people do um is becoming more expensive.
19:09
So interesting, uh, and I I do think the restoring of energy production is a goal of the president's.
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I agree.
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And um, that's a political outcome that he's looking for and is getting it.
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That transition is going to take time, and maybe that oil comes down to $50 a barrel as production here really kind of um, you know, develops.
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But that's uh, you know, that's a do we have the patience to see it through?
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That's the question.
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I don't know.
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I don't know if we do, honestly, because say it seems like everybody is anxious and impatient to try to get this behind us.
19:44
They want inflation to go away tomorrow.
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They want wages to double by next week.
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Uh they want GDP to triple by next quarter.
19:52
And I'm telling people, I said it doesn't work that way.
19:55
Well, and you know, everyone's talking about politically here, domestically about affordability.
19:59
Um millennials are complaining about affordability of housing and other things.
20:02
And, you know, we're looking at a situation where it's not a matter of necessarily affordability as it is about patience of working hard to get what you want.
20:14
Yeah.
20:15
Um, you know, and I that sounds like an old man like strain, but it is it's the conversation I had to have with my parents.
20:20
Like, I couldn't afford a house in Midtown Manhattan when I was young, and I couldn't now.
20:24
But um, you know, the idea of um this instant gratification I think a lot of people have, uh particularly if you're under 40, um, is really applying itself right now from folks who are seeing this and going, well, why haven't we figured this out yet?
20:38
Particularly given the fact that the um, you know, the previous uh scene of military uh work was Venezuela, which was a one night operation that just got everybody out, and you have a you know kind of more favorable government there, oh, this is easy.
20:53
Well, it's not easy, especially in a region like the Middle East.
20:56
Um, and especially when you're you know five or six years behind China on technology and other things developing like this President Trump got handed a bad hand um from the collect from the Obama years and from the Biden years, and so trying to fix that is not uh a finger snap.
21:00
And other things are developing.
21:01
President Trump got handed a bad hand from the collect from the Obama years and from the Biden years.
21:08
And so trying to fix that is not a finger snap.
21:13
And that's some of the stuff you're seeing here too is really trying to get America to a position of we've we've we have strength and we have the ability to to be in the lead, but we also haven't really used it and seen it in its full effect over the last few months or last few years.
21:13
And that's some of the stuff you're saying here too is really trying to get America to a position of we've we've we have strength and we have the ability to be in the lead, but we also haven't really used it and seen it in its full effect over the last few months or last few years.
21:30
Yeah, I would agree with that.
21:32
We we we've seen Biden look the other way.
21:34
It was almost a master plan to get Iran to a point where they could become uh dominant within that Middle East, and Trump was like they're gonna do that through nuclear weapons.
21:44
That's how they're gonna do it.
21:45
They're not gonna do it because they're better talkers and they're more intelligent, they're just more clever.
21:50
Or they're they're not honest, they're not honest.
21:52
I know that's the other part about Iran is that no matter what you're hearing from them, you can't trust what they're saying because they haven't been honest about anything.
21:59
Oh, that's true.
22:00
That's true.
22:01
And that's that's a shame because it's what what I'm reading and what I'm kind of going through these days is the same thing that everybody else is.
22:08
You know, when when can we see some coverage and get some meaningful understanding of the direction for the economy?
22:17
And this has been this was a this was a disruptor.
22:19
This was a disruptor, okay?
22:21
Total disruptor, you know.
22:23
And what I don't like about it is that we never saw it coming when we talked about it, but nobody thought, at least my my hear, my hearing is from the sources that a lot of the disruption that took place was not quite anticipated.
22:39
It came out of the blue.
22:40
You first we start first started seeing stories of aircraft carriers going to the Middle East, and um, you know, uh air uh uh C C 17s and kind of uh Air Force assets going over to the Middle East, but nothing uh from a public-facing nature of explaining to the American people what we were doing and why.
23:01
And um I I do you know, not to be overly critical of the president.
23:07
I'm not sitting in the room and I I don't know his decision making on some stuff, but you know, I would I would venture that to be a mistake because I do think it is allowed for people to set their own expectations of what they want to see with it without some clear guidance of what the president sees for it.
23:22
Um and so, you know, uh I remember in 2016, um, in in the presidential debates, uh, President Trump really attacked Hillary Clinton for putting um her ISIS plan out on the internet uh to uh as a campaign tactic, say, hey, this is what I want to do for ISIS.
23:41
And President Trump in the debate really eviscerated her for saying it's the dumbest thing you could do.
23:46
Why would you tell people what you're going to do?
23:47
And it's it was a very interesting thought process for him, where you know, he was basically like, you're telling your enemy what you're going to do.
23:57
He just looked at us an outsider and thought this is ridiculous.
24:00
Why would you do that?
24:02
It so like he still thinks that way because every time he gets asked a question from the press about something on the war, he says, Well, I'm not going to answer that because it's a stupid question.
24:12
I mean, it's so funny to hear him lecture people for asking not illegitimate questions on strategy that the American people kind of want to know, or at least have some expectations for, but in his own way, he's like, I'm not going to tell you because that would be telling people where I'm going to do.
24:28
And it's a fascinating catch-22 for him because it's it's creating an environment for um lack of certainty of goals for the American public.
24:37
And so people can fill that void, and and his political enemies can fill that void and things that they are setting expectations that he never said we're going to be part of it, but at the same time, um, he is wisely saying, I'm not going to give you an inch of information that I think is going to lead me with with fewer choices to like win.
24:56
And so it's a it's an interesting 21st century information problem where there's an expectation of people to have all the knowledge and information ahead of time, but you have a president who is kind of somewhat correctly saying you don't need to know because that's going to harm our soldiers, it's going to harm our geopolitical strategy.
25:15
Um, you know, this is 3D chess.
25:17
I hate that term, actually.
25:18
This is chess, but it's also um, you know, being played in a way that doesn't necessarily um benefit the public from knowing, but yet the public needs to make informed decisions to have their own opinion on what this is is success as it's is a success or I agree with that.
25:34
I agree.
25:35
I would definitely agree with that one, is that we gotta have a we gotta have a little bit less communicative White House to the world, what we're gonna do, and maybe a little bit more long-term planning and looking at an economic impact studies on what the detrimental actions are based on policy, yeah.
25:54
Right?
25:55
And we uh my sources are telling me that nobody thought it was gonna last longer in ten full days, right?
26:00
That's why I think it was kind of pitched to him.
26:02
Yeah, I think that's the Venezuela idea.
26:04
Yeah, and it was a five days or something, yeah.
26:06
With little or no conflict to say, you know, much.
26:09
That's right.
26:10
This isn't a quadmire.
26:11
I mean, this is uh this is quicksand.
26:13
It seems like we every time we make a mood, we're getting a little bit deeper in the sand.
26:16
Well, it's interesting because again, you have a very unreliable opponent or we can call him in an enemy here.
26:23
I mean, we're at war with them, obviously.
26:24
So they're gonna make new gater bombs, that's an enemy.
26:28
Their whole religious basis is based on killing.
26:30
Well, I'm just trying to be politically correct.
26:32
It's just not a good idea.
26:33
Okay, you're doing 2020.
26:34
So the guy's coming at you with no, that's right.
26:36
A 30-foot kind of global ballistic missile warheads.
26:39
Being diplomatic and when the diplomacy is not necessarily Trump today.
26:43
Yeah, be Trump today.
26:45
The enemy, and you will root them out.
26:48
We will just there's a civilization.
26:51
Yes, their civilization is toast.
26:53
It's done.
26:54
Um I I gotta tell you, I like it.
26:55
Um I got kids.
26:56
I think he's a stud and it comes to that kind of self, but that's me.
26:59
Uh yeah, uh well, you know, uh when you realize that he's basically doing the art of the deal and saying outrageous things to try to get you to his side, um, you know, it uh it makes sense.
27:11
But uh I think our uh, you know, our enemies in Iran and China and Russia I'm also read it and probably have added that into the calculus.
27:19
So they know he's not an un you know, uh an outrageously um outside the buoy's man at the end of the day, even though there's so many people in the media who hate him and want him to think that he's a very, very smart person who wants the best for America, and I just don't think that he will make um incredibly reckless decisions um for the expense of something that he doesn't see as like a uh a needed goal.
27:42
So again, we're balancing public information versus um hard intelligence that only presidents and members of Congress and heads of state of other countries can see and have to make decisions based on for the you know security of our country and for the for their countries.
27:58
So um, you know, there's good people in there, there's good uh sober, sober-minded individuals who look at foreign policy and are in a in a real way, and um, you know, we have to trust to some degree that that's what's kind of guiding our our leaders that we've elected.
28:00
Good people in there.
28:00
There's good uh sober, sober minded individuals who look at foreign policy and are in a in a real way.
28:06
And um, you know, we have to trust to some degree that that's what's kind of guiding our our leaders that we've elected.
28:13
Yeah, I agree.
28:13
Yeah, I agree.
28:14
I agree.
28:14
I agree.
28:15
The elected officials have to do what they need to do to ensure the safety of the United States, but also to not just ensure the physical safety, but the viability, commercial safety.
28:15
The elected officials have to do what they need to do to ensure the safety of the United States, but also to not just ensure the physical safety, but the viability, commercial safety.
28:24
Okay, we need to have we need to have people like the tariffs.
28:24
Okay, we need to have we need to have people like the tariffs.
28:28
Now, I'm a believer in the tariff.
28:28
Now, I'm a believer in the tariffs as a bargaining chip.
28:31
I am.
28:31
I mean it's a over, it's a uh over the top method of which to really try to rein in predatory seller.
28:41
Yeah.
28:41
I believe that.
28:42
Yeah.
28:42
However, it's like anything else.
28:44
If you're going to buy a new car and you bring it home, mama wants to know we can afford it.
28:49
Yeah.
28:49
Okay.
28:50
Yeah.
28:50
Okay.
28:50
Your daddy ain't gonna go to buy a new Rolls Royce unless he's big money, and mama knows the money is not an issue.
28:56
But if he's tight and he buys a Rolls Royce, and it means that we're gonna have to tighten the belt up, and she can't get her hair done once a month.
29:02
So I mean, you gotta be happy.
29:03
That's right.
29:04
So mama needs to know, and citizens need to know, hey, this is what we're gonna do.
29:08
Or don't tell us what you're gonna do, but just tell us, hey, there's gonna need some comput, possibly, and might possibly do this, this, and that.
29:14
We're just telling American people.
29:16
I think that's that's critical.
29:18
I think the communicated level of that would have gone a long way because it's better than the tariffs.
29:23
And this, it did definitely do an economic shock.
29:26
I mean, the markets reacted, and people people lost a lot of money, inflation kicked up.
29:30
Well, and uh, you know, I you and I have talked about terrorists.
29:34
My view of the tariffs is kind of opposite of yours.
29:36
I I I thought that was uh an unforced error of epic proportions in terms of our economy.
29:42
Um I don't you know, uh being a free trader, I just you know we live in a in a in an economy that benefits from uh global trade.
29:52
And uh, you know, I'm uh I'm an advocate of the idea of uh if goods and services don't cross borders soldiers will.
29:59
And uh in that instance, I think trade is uh is a net positive for everybody.
30:03
And again, I I think the trade imbalance is uh they were inflated numbers that are actually real.
30:07
Of course you have a trade and balance with uh, you know, a country that only has one export.
30:12
Um, but that's the point.
30:13
We want it.
30:14
We want coffee, we want bananas, we want things that we can't grow um, you know, in the in the Continental 48.
30:20
Um, you know, why you can do some of that too, but I mean again, like we're talking about uh supply and demand here.
30:25
Just those those economic realities to me.
30:28
Um are necessary for um, you know, stability.
30:32
So um yeah.
30:35
Well yeah.
30:36
So I mean that's it.
30:37
That's that's just how it is.
30:38
We take a quick commercial break.
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When the farmers are facing substantially higher input costs, with estimating estimates indicating a potential 10% rise in fertilizer expenses.
36:30
For some, this is meant an extra hundred thousand or more cost.
36:33
There's that's all they make.
36:35
Yeah.
36:35
That's all they make.
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And then you're lucky if you make a hundred grand a year doing corn or wheat.
36:41
And of course the with corn and soybean prices falling, rising fertilizer costs that create a vicious circle for the farmers.
36:49
They're seeing lower returns and higher uh financial risk.
36:53
I mean, it's just staggering how much this stuff has gone up.
36:58
I mean, that's almost 60% at the pup.
37:01
Yeah.
37:02
60%.
37:03
That's 20 cow.
37:05
Untenable.
37:06
Well, yeah, because it's a shock.
37:08
It's sticker shock.
37:09
Yeah.
37:09
You know, you've been buying a car.
37:13
Yeah.
37:13
Okay.
37:14
It's it's like buying a car, new or used car is supposed to be back.
37:20
It was the experience like flying.
37:22
Oh, it's great to fly.
37:24
You had this wonderful attentive person that would wait on you and tell you, oh, I'm a flight attendant, I'm a story is whatever.
37:31
And what you need, oh, do you want the steak or the chicken?
37:34
Buying China tablecloth or the app can, right?
37:38
Flying was an experience.
37:39
It was a luxury.
37:41
So it was, yeah.
37:42
Okay.
37:42
Could culturally status seek that.
37:45
It was.
37:45
It was an experience.
37:47
Fast forward.
37:49
And when you now look at what we're going through in life, very few things are that had a level of experience.
37:56
It's really about just get get to work, get it done, go along.
38:01
We we grind it out.
38:03
It's life is not that experience anymore.
38:06
And but here's an experience I'll give you today.
38:09
Ready for the experience?
38:10
Yeah.
38:12
Fill up your car.
38:13
It's not seven dollars a gallon.
38:15
Used to be four.
38:16
Used to be three, used to be two.
38:18
That's that's an experience.
38:19
You don't want that's not an experience I'm looking for.
38:22
No.
38:23
Um yeah.
38:23
And flying now is not an experience.
38:25
Now we got these ticket prices.
38:26
Using ticket prices up 50%.
38:28
Yep.
38:29
50% in a month.
38:31
I know.
38:32
I mean, food prices, everything, toothpaste.
38:36
Well, and it just makes people make tougher decisions.
38:38
So they gotta take that work trail or they go in to do that extra extra thing to work on.
38:43
That's right.
38:44
Buy more groceries or buy less groceries.
38:46
Yeah.
38:46
Just every single economic decision that a family makes is going to be a lot tougher over the next few months.
38:53
Again, from a political standpoint, as the congressional masks are coming, you know, or uh uh the congressional races for the midterms are coming in November.
39:01
Um real challenge, real headwinds for the GOP right now, as well as I'll bother.
39:06
Yeah, it's a headwinds.
39:08
What whose cruise uh the biggest head would?
39:11
Oh, so the house, yeah, the houses are really, really difficult to keep.
39:16
I'm gonna I'm gonna do on the record, say we'll lose 10 seats.
39:19
Oh, I think it's gonna be a lot more than that.
39:22
I do too, but uh I would have win the bed.
39:25
You take the under, I'll take the over, and uh, you know, we'll uh we'll see.
39:30
Well, what are we betting?
39:32
Some pizza, some uh 80 to 80 percent uh inflated pizza.
39:36
80 oh my gosh.
39:39
The cost of everything.
39:40
Where did I or did I just see something that made me mad?
39:45
Um it wasn't gas.
39:47
That would be that was easy.
39:48
I was already mad a couple days ago, but it was something I saw.
39:52
I don't remember what it is specifically right the second.
39:54
Oh, it was a candy bar.
39:55
Two dollars for a candy bar, dollar ninety nine at a gas station.
39:58
Two bucks.
39:59
I remember 1523 to sell in the 70s.
40:02
Yeah.
40:02
Remember where we could buy trading cards, football cards, and you get to stick a gum with it.
40:07
Oh, yeah, the tops, tops baseball cars, of course.
40:10
Yeah, and the gum tasted so good, it was pure sugar.
40:14
See I never I never I was uh, you know, um, I like the bubble gums, so I didn't really do the tops jumbo.
40:21
I wouldn't I just get the baseball cards.
40:23
We always had one of the cards that had the gum in it that had a stain on the back of it.
40:26
Yeah, just awesome.
40:27
So it was the best thing, smelled good.
40:29
Oh, yeah.
40:29
Double snelled lay cardboard.
40:31
And then there was bazooka.
40:33
Remember the little cartoon inside a little piece.
40:35
Well, you know, when I was a kid, the awesome gum was bigly chew.
40:39
You it's kind of like it was like tobacco, but it was it was bubble gum.
40:43
You're playing baseball, you think you're Lenny Dijkstra, you know, chewing on a big, you know, yeah, head of uh wad.
40:50
A wad.
40:51
It was like wide fuck.
40:52
I remembered that.
40:54
Catfish hunter.
40:55
Oh, yeah.
40:56
Of course.
40:57
Oh my gosh.
40:58
Wanting to be there.
40:59
Yep, yeah.
40:59
Rod Carew from the twins.
41:01
It was just like, oh my gosh.
41:04
Okay, so now as we kind of look at the the race or the economic impact.
41:11
If this thing was to if oil stays elevated, let's say above a hundred, above a let's just say a hundred.
41:16
Yeah, because we're clearly there now.
41:18
Yeah.
41:19
For let's say a month.
41:21
The the inflation will be like five percent.
41:25
That just keeps building.
41:26
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
41:27
Keeps building.
41:28
Um here's here's my question.
41:29
I'm trying to try to be very delicate.
41:31
How bad could it get?
41:33
I'm just gonna say it.
41:34
I mean, could we lose the Senate in this cycle?
41:37
Yes, we could.
41:38
We could Texas has a choice here in a couple months.
41:42
Um they pick for their nominee.
41:46
One nominee uh Ken Paxton will be a tougher general election campaign than uh than John Corning, probably to the tune of 80 million dollars spending this day versus 20.
41:56
Um, that's a reality.
41:58
We'll see our Republicans pick, and you know, they have the right to make what they want, but one candidate's gonna be a much tougher general election candidate.
42:00
They have the right to make what they want, but one candidate's going to be a much tougher general election candidate.
42:04
It's just it's just the facts.
42:04
It's just it's just the facts.
42:06
Yeah.
42:06
Yeah.
42:06
Um, Iowa with the tariffs that we're seeing is gonna be difficult for the GOP.
42:07
Iowa with the tariffs that we're seeing is going to be difficult for the GOP.
42:11
There's other states out there.
42:11
There's other states out there, Michigan, Maine.
42:12
Michigan, Maine.
42:13
I think Susan Collins is a is this is a force in Maine that people kind of underestimate.
42:13
I think Susan Collins is a is a is a force in Maine that people kind of underestimate, but still a blue state and a red, you know, center.
42:19
But still, a blue state and a red, you know, center.
42:22
That's even all way too red.
42:22
That's even all way through enough.
42:24
If you should that red.
42:25
No.
42:25
No, um you know, she's a moderate.
42:26
You know, she's a moderate.
42:28
She's purple.
42:28
She's purple.
42:29
She's very
42:29
She's very purple.
42:30
Um, and she represents uh but a blue state.
42:33
So um, you know, she's navigated that well for a long time.
42:36
I mean, again, I I just I find it hard to believe that the Democrats, whoever they put up study Susan Collins, because I just think Susan Collins has done such a tremendous job representing Maine as long as she has and has done enough to show that she's independent-minded enough where she's not just going to enjoy the party line of a MABA GOP.
42:51
That's good.
42:52
I agree with that one.
42:53
Because there's been times when she has looked as if she was gonna go left on some things, and she did she did get a few of the first term appointees through through confirmation for Trump, uh, both on the Supreme Court, obviously, and and the administration.
43:10
So good.
43:11
Uh you know, we could talk about this another time, but I I think the idea of the Senate weighing in so partisanly on uh nominations needs to kind of be revisited.
43:20
I mean, for instance, you can get to pick who he wants.
43:23
Um, and the Senate being a guardrail against that is one thing, but a Senate that obstructs people who are just part of the president's team, um, really kind of limits the effectiveness of what American people elected a president to do.
43:37
Um, so in some regards, it's become such a partisan thing.
43:40
We're usually these things for usually 90 to 10.
43:43
Now they're 50-50, and I just that's not a good outcome for the country or something.
43:47
Did you lucky you get 5050?
43:48
Yeah.
43:49
And then JD kind of throws in his outbreak or something.
43:52
You know, you also need to spine call to Canada.
43:54
Some of these candidates don't deserve to be confirmed, but a lot of it.
43:58
We're just saying Chris Ferrer.
43:59
Matt Gates for AG, but uh, you know, on the whole, there is uh it's it's two partisan up there, and we could again get off a rabbit hole on that.
44:09
But um the the parsonship of of Senate confirmations is a little too oppressive these days.
44:15
Yeah, I agree with that one.
44:16
So if Iran continues to forge ahead with this conflict, what are we gonna do to swap one big H-bomb on?
44:26
No.
44:28
I don't think I don't think anybody is willing to take that step.
44:35
Um it's just it's such a it's such a massive change.
44:40
Even the atom bombs that we did after World War II were you know a thousand times um less lethal than what we have in L and H bombs.
44:50
And I just I don't I just don't think there's uh uh an appetite or an acceptance from the global populace for something like that to happen.
44:59
I just I don't I don't uh we have them, but I don't think we use them.
45:04
And um I I just don't see it like that's uh that's a self-defense, not not a self-defense, but a uh like uh civilization saving protection plan more than uh offensive um you know usage of uh of a weapon plan.
45:24
I just I I just I don't see that as a usage here now.
45:27
Okay.
45:27
So if you no, I I don't I don't know.
45:30
I mean, I I'm looking at it like this, not from a from a nuclear atomic or some kind of uh unconventional means to end this thing.
45:39
Uh but it's definitely gonna kick in conventional.
45:42
Well, I think he's gonna go willy-nilly crazy.
45:44
I think he could.
45:45
Um, you know, he's been threatening bridges and infrastructure and power and that would drastically change uh innocent civilians in Iran's lives.
45:57
And so that uh potentially is on the table.
46:00
He keeps threatening it, and at some point um to save some type of face, and I hate to use it again from like some just poker term, but uh, you know, I think he would have to do something to follow through on on something at some point.
46:13
But um you've got because they're just what they've run out of military targets.
46:18
Although again, I come back to who's laying the mines, who's working, you know, where where when we had the down pilot, there was not any effort to try to put boots on the ground because they're afraid of the Iranian military.
46:31
Okay, like we're not afraid of them, but like didn't want to put anybody at risk but the Iranian military.
46:35
So it's like there are military targets still that just may not be military targets that are easy or um potentially less uh um you know unsettling from a global uh acceptance standpoint, but that's uh that that's gotta be something that they think about on the table as well.
46:56
Well, yeah, and and kind of shifting gears for a second because it's gonna dovetail into things.
47:00
So we had the the economic impact of this of this conflict.
47:04
Um now let's go back to tariffs for a second.
47:06
I want to talk about tariffs.
47:07
Yeah.
47:08
So on our first part of the show, we're talking to the Iranian conflict.
47:12
Yeah.
47:12
Okay.
47:13
And we talked a little bit about all the issues that it created, both on the economic as well as the I call it the the military front, because a lot of times when you when you enter a conflict, you're gonna have allies of the country that we're bombing that we're coming up in confrontation with, and something they'll push back.
47:30
But I will say this.
47:33
And I and I kind of mean this in a in a respectful way.
47:36
It was needed.
47:37
I mean, I'm sorry to all the other countries that may disagree or the individuals uh listening to disagree.
47:42
I think the Iranian conflict was needed.
47:43
We need to put them in their place.
47:45
They for too long took too many liberties in this enriched uranium stuff to make weapons grade.
47:50
And that's what we talked about than the first half of the show.
47:53
And I'm gonna stand by the fact that I think Trump was right, and he may have gone a little aggressive uh where the impact is a little bit more aggressive on the economy.
48:01
But I mean, how do you how do you do it differently?
48:03
You know, that's uh that's the thing that will people will be asking that for years to come.
48:07
What could have been different, but I'm not sure anything could have been different.
48:09
Maybe a little more communicative to the public about things that could happen in the markets, inflation and gas, and of course related those items, but otherwise, I don't I don't have a problem with what he did.
48:19
I uh I don't either overall.
48:21
Um, and again, I I think a good can come out of it over the long haul if people have the patience um and the willingness to see through to the end.
48:31
Um not in a sense of like, hey, you need to wait years and years, but uh a sense of like there can be good out of this, and it just takes a little foresight and thought to put into it to see it.
48:42
I think it's very possible that there's a good outcome that comes of it, and I think it's probably a likely outcome because again, um a a more uh US affiliated and allied Iran with uh with a population there that um is working with the global uh you know community and uh economic development and growth is a very, very good thing, and that would be and President Trump would be uh said this before, people looked at me like crazy, but President Trump, if he deserved of the Nobel Prize if he did it.
49:00
global uh you know community in uh economic development and growth is a very very good thing and that would be and president trump would be I said this before people looked at me like crazy but President Trump if he deserved of of the Nobel Prize would be if he did it.
49:13
Bingo um if that comes out that would be a huge change to um the global status quo that's been upset since 1979.
49:13
Bingo um if that comes out, that would be a huge change to um the global status quo that's been upset since 1979.
49:21
I'd agree with that.
49:21
I'd agree with that.
49:23
I would agree with that for sure.
49:23
I would agree with that for sure.
49:24
I think I think what you're saying has a lot of merit.
49:24
I think I think what you're saying has a lot of merit.
49:26
Um but let's let's switch gears to tariffs for a second.
49:27
But let's let's switch years to tariffs for a second.
49:29
I mean let's
49:29
I mean let's let's talk about that boy I get a lot of calls on that I'm also getting calls on the on the fact there was a um there was a comment that Trump said the other day where he basically said that he he would encourage and appreciate companies not seek tariff refunds.
49:52
Are you aware of this?
49:53
I do not see that.
49:53
Oh yeah it's a good bar president Trump said that uh he rema he would remember companies that declined to seek refunds on duties paid after the Supreme Court struck down a large swath of his tariffs.
50:05
Oh yeah and and one of the things I remember the article was um Trump was commenting and said it uh it's brilliant if they don't do that he was saying uh it was last Tuesday on the MBC C NBC and a response to a question whether companies such as Amazon or Apple or Costco or Walmart uh would seek refunds on their on the duties and the fees that they paid the question is is he doesn't want them to seek those fees or refund.
50:31
Even if they did are they going to pass those on to the consumers are they going to go through their cash register and determine every single person that paid it.
50:37
Well that's the point the companies didn't pay them the customers did.
50:40
Exactly so it'll pay it's a double uh double profit to profit center for these companies so I think the president's not wrong on that um but again I I think this is a broader point of that this is not a presidential prerogative in the first place.
50:56
Congress has the um the power of the purse and the power of taxation and uh for any president um you know this isn't a uh a look at president Trump I'd look at it from what what I what would I want to see if a Democrat were in charge.
51:11
And again I don't I don't like too much power and one executive and so um you know disagree with the tariffs uh last year disagree with them now um Congress needs to assert itself a little bit more in their role they haven't done that yeah and um you know I I think that's part of what we're seeing now.
51:30
President saying hey uh you know don't uh don't seat the the for the refunds you know don't seek the refunds you know we'll see I I don't see a company not doing that in part because I think they're all looking for their bottom line and having a tough time in this uh an economic environment part because of the gas prices and everything else they're all looking for um extra profit centers for their bottom line so I'm not convinced that a company would give what uh pass on free money would give them the opportunity I don't think so either it could either pay for it well in billions of dollars just think about that how much how much uh the consumer paid at Walmart or Costco or any number of those companies.
52:11
Well what does that mean the president's going to remember um I know what it is again from a political standpoint uh Republicans need to be very very uh concerned about what we're seeing in 2026 coming up and uh you know I just if you're Walmart or your ATT or you know don't mean to call out companies directly but like you got to go okay like this is a uh a much better financial position for our uh company and it's you know the legality of it in the first place so I I just I'm not sure that's a um a likely outcome I wouldn't if I were CEO of a company.
52:46
No I just wouldn't just you have a fiduciary responsibility are not going to turn down you know unions of dollars of of refunds for what is in essence was a was a mistake of a policy decision and that's why the Supreme Court did what they did.
53:00
Yeah I agree with that.
53:02
I agree with that.
53:03
Yeah.
53:03
Yeah there's no way that these tariffs are not going to get refunded at least the people tend to I mean the corporations are the ones who who are going to get the money.
53:14
Right.
53:14
And the consumers aren't going to file this though.
53:16
Well and that's where I that's that's a uh bigger um shame of an issue I guess in a way it's that the actual people that paid the cost are not going to get the refunds.
53:27
And that could be a political um you know outcome that we're not even thinking about for the midterms as well if people do not feel like um their government or their um you know institutions are looking out for them this is a huge uh red flag for those to say look like not only are they not looking out for you they're taking your money twice.
53:46
Yeah.
53:47
Um that you know that's that's how that's how populist uprising comes so not not like uprising in itself but just electoral populist uprising.
53:56
And so I you know again it's an it's another um uh piece of ammunition for those on the left who are gonna try really hard to convince people that um you know the the freedom of uh of the private sector is is uh is mess is messing up their opportunity for growth and opportunity.
54:12
Yep I don't it is it's exactly what's happening.
54:15
And so taking a look at taking a look at the the bedrock of what the tariffs were based on the the policy or what was it the exclusion where he basically said he had the right in which to take these tariffs and apply them uh and the Supreme Court said no way Jose.
54:32
I don't think he I don't think it was legal definition aside from I think he felt like there was he they they did some obscure uh oh I you know uh now you're mentioning uh I can't remember exactly which term it was if something from like obscure law from like the early 1900s yeah and um no it was not applicable now and again it it goes from the standpoint of um this is very much constitutionally Congress's purview and yes the president wanted tariffs he needed to work with Congress to get them right it's harder it's uh it it's it's frustrating but it is our system is supposed to be set up that you can't uh a president shouldn't and couldn't do or couldn't and shouldn't do unilateral tariffs again that's just that's too much power for one individual whether we like his motives or not.
55:17
Yeah I agree with that one.
55:19
I'm agreeing with that one wholeheartedly um so what happens if the tariffs aren't refunded in the same manner in which they were they were ex they were uh collected and they start to push back because that's what I'm hearing that there's going to be years before these things are going to get paid out.
55:35
Huh well um a lot of lawsuits were filed.
55:39
The companies that uh will be fighting then have the resources to do it.
55:43
So that's true.
55:44
Um they're gonna wait their day you know I I'm I think that'll they're gonna make the calculus on whatever the number is they're looking for and if the cost of litigation and lobbying and uh um you know kind of the the uncertainty of a fighting the federal government but also the the the law on your side on it they're probably gonna make that calculation it's probably a 50x multiple of the cost for the legal fees versus what they would probably be getting so I would say that's uh that's a math equation that they'll be for um but uh you know yeah I the president is very um he is very adamant on his position on tariffs and so I could see him try to make it very difficult for people to get it back um because it's been something that they've been bragging about in terms of revenue for the federal
56:00
So the the the law on your side on it, they're probably gonna make that calculation.
56:03
It's probably a 50x multiple of the cost for the legal fees versus what they would probably be getting.
56:08
So I would say that's uh that's a math equation that they'll be for.
56:12
Um, but uh, you know, yeah, uh the president is very um he is very adamant on his position on tariffs, and so I could see him try to make it very difficult for people to get it back.
56:26
Um because it's been something that they've been bragging about in terms of revenue for the federal government.
56:30
Um so yeah, I I can see uh shaky shaky waters ahead for the the SS uh terra-free fund ship.
56:40
Yeah, yep, yep, yep, yeah.
56:42
Okay, Betrick, that's it.
56:43
Uh oh, and this is Christian Briggs.
56:45
Thank you for joining us with Chris Walker here.
56:47
And we will have another great show for you next Wednesday.
56:49
Thank you so much for joining us.