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The Fed's Impossible Choice & The $10 Trillion Elephant · The PhilStockWorld Investing Podcast

• 0:00
  Roy: Welcome to the deep dive. We're here to give you that shortcut, helping you make sense of the financial world without getting lost in all the noise.
• 0:07
  Penny: Exactly.
• 0:08
  Roy: And today we're digging into some really critical economic data that just dropped on 09/11/2025.
• 0:16
  Penny: Yeah, big day for data.
• 0:17
  Roy: We've got a pretty significant CPI report, some jobless claims numbers that definitely turn heads and of course the Fed's looming rate decision. A lot to unpack there. It is. It's a lot of moving parts. So our mission today is really to distill the key insights for you, cut through that noise and explain what it all means in the real world.
• 0:37
  Makes sense. We'll be leaning on the expert analysis from philstockworld.com. They're, you know, premier site for stock and options trading. Their founder, Phil Davis, he's actually recognized by Forbes as a top influencer in market analysis. Really sharp stuff.
• 0:51
  Penny: He definitely knows his markets. Their insights are incredibly valuable, especially now when you've got these signals that just seem to contradict each other.
• 0:58
  Roy: Contradictory feels like the perfect word right now, doesn't it?
• 1:01
  Penny: It really does. And this isn't just a minor blip. The immediate impact of this data, it strongly suggests we're deep into what philstockworldcom calls a new monetary regime.
• 1:13
  Roy: A new regime.
• 1:14
  Penny: Yeah. And it's a landscape that frankly demands a totally fresh approach to investing. You know, the old strategies, they might not cut it anymore.
• 1:22
  Roy: Okay. Let's definitely untack that. Right. Because September 11 really did present, well, a a tough situation for the Fed.
• 1:28
  Penny: Extremely tough.
• 1:29
  Roy: You got inflation, still stubborn, still hot on one side.
• 1:32
  Penny: Yep.
• 1:33
  Roy: And then boom, the labor market starts flashing these pretty serious warning signs. It sounds like, I don't know, an impossible tightrope walk.
• 1:40
  Penny: That's a good way to put it.
• 1:41
  Roy: So how do these conflicting numbers actually tie the Fed's hands? What's the specific conflict?
• 1:45
  Penny: Well, it's that classic economic catch '22, isn't it? Yeah. You look at the August CPI report, headline inflation, point 4% month over month. That's double July's rate.
• 1:56
  Roy: Double.
• 1:56
  Penny: Wow. And core CPI, you know, stripping out food and energy still sticky at point 3% month over month.
• 2:03
  Roy: Still pretty high.
• 2:04
  Penny: And year over year, you're looking at CPI hitting 2.9%, core CPI at 3.1. Both are, like, 50% higher than the Fed's target, their preferred 2%.
• 2:16
  Roy: So way off target still.
• 2:18
  Penny: Way off. It just shows inflation is much stickier than maybe people were hoping.
• 2:22
  Roy: Okay, so inflation is definitely still a problem. Yeah. But then you pivot to the labor market data, total different picture.
• 2:28
  Penny: Completely different story.
• 2:29
  Roy: Initial jobless claims, the report says they blasted up 236,000 to 263,000 in one week.
• 2:37
  Penny: That's a huge jump.
• 2:38
  Roy: It's an 11.4% increase. Yeah. And the highest they've been since what? October 2021?
• 2:43
  Penny: That's right. And that wasn't even all of it.
• 2:45
  Roy: Right. There was that massive upward revision, 911,000 jobs added to previous reports. That's huge.
• 2:52
  Penny: It fundamentally changes the narrative about the job market strength or lack thereof.
• 2:56
  Roy: So much weaker than we thought.
• 2:57
  Penny: Precisely. And this is what Phil Stock World dot com calls the Fed's impossible position. Yeah. They really have to think about cutting rates now. You see this kind of labor market weakness.
• 3:05
  You worry about recession.
• 3:06
  Roy: And nobody wants a recession. Milton Friedman. Right?
• 3:09
  Penny: Recession's are bad. Simple, but true. Yet, how can they possibly justify cutting rates when inflation is picking up steam again and it's still well above their target?
• 3:20
  Roy: And they can't really win, can they?
• 3:21
  Penny: Their policy options are just incredibly tight right now. Constrained.
• 3:24
  Roy: Okay. And here's where philstockworld.com's analysis gets, like, really interesting. They're saying this isn't just a temporary thing. Right? Mhmm.
• 3:32
  What are the deeper drivers they see making this inflation so darn persistent? Why isn't it just fading away with rate hikes?
• 3:40
  Penny: Right. They dig deeper than just the headline numbers. Their analysis points to several, more structural things going on. First up, tariffs.
• 3:49
  Roy: Okay.
• 3:50
  Penny: They estimate something like 70% of those tariff costs. They get passed straight to US consumers. That's classic cost push inflation right there.
• 3:57
  Roy: Pushing prices up from the supply side.
• 3:58
  Penny: Exactly. Then there's service inflation. That's a huge headache because, you know, our economy is like 60% services.
• 4:04
  Roy: Mhmm.
• 4:04
  Penny: And then supply chain reshoring. Companies bringing production back to The US. It just costs more to make things here than it did overseas.
• 4:11
  Roy: Makes sense. More expensive labor, regulations.
• 4:14
  Penny: All of it adds up. And it doesn't stop there, does it?
• 4:16
  Roy: Seems like there's more.
• 4:17
  Penny: Oh, yeah. You've still got lingering labor market tightness in certain areas. Wages are still climbing, pushing up business costs.
• 4:24
  Roy: Right.
• 4:25
  Penny: And finally, something maybe not everyone thinks about. Energy transition costs. Moving to greener energy, it's expensive. Those costs are rising, kinda out of control, and they weave their way into almost everything.
• 4:39
  Roy: So these aren't just temporary blips. These are, like, fundamental shifts.
• 4:42
  Penny: That's the argument. These are structural factors really driving this sticky inflation.
• 4:46
  Roy: And you could feel it. I mean, anyone looking at their grocery bill, their gas receipt, you feel this data in your wallet. What's the direct hit on the average consumer look like according to the analysis?
• 4:57
  Penny: It's pretty grim, actually. The phrase used was shelter costs are crushing consumers. Think about this. A typical US household now needs to spend almost 45% 44.6% to be exact of their income just to afford a median priced home in 2025.
• 5:12
  Roy: 25%. That's staggering.
• 5:14
  Penny: It's a massive jump from what renters used to spend, around 30.5%. It's just a huge burden.
• 5:20
  Roy: And it's not just housing, is it?
• 5:21
  Penny: No way. Food prices, gas, getting your car fixed, home repairs, insurance, it's all going up significantly. Across
• 5:30
  Roy: the board.
• 5:31
  Penny: Yeah. And these signs, they point to quote, wide ranging sticky inflation that is not going away. And here's the really worrying part. Phil Stock World dot com highlights.
• 5:41
  Roy: What's the bat?
• 5:42
  Penny: The idea that Fed rate cuts increase inflation. If they cut rates to help the job market, they might just pour fuel on the inflationary fire, making things even worse for most people's budgets.
• 5:52
  Roy: Oof. So okay. Toxic mix. Yeah. Hot inflation, cooling jobs.
• 5:57
  Logically, you'd think the FOC market would hate that. Right? You'd expect a sell off.
• 6:00
  Penny: You absolutely would.
• 6:01
  Roy: But instead, the Dow just blasted through 46,000 for the first time ever. It feels completely backward. So what is really going on? What's driving the market, if not the economic reality?
• 6:12
  Penny: This is where the detective work comes in. And philstockworld.com, especially in their live member chat, they really nailed it. They uncovered the hidden driver. Just a staggering logic defying ocean of liquidity flooding the system.
• 6:26
  Roy: Liquidity. Just cash sloshing around.
• 6:28
  Penny: Tons of it. It wasn't about the economic fundamentals in that moment. It was about the sheer unbelievable volume of money looking for a home.
• 6:36
  Roy: And Phil Davis really dug into this, didn't he? He found some incredible numbers.
• 6:40
  Penny: He did. Global money supply, up 10% this year, up a massive 40% since COVID started globally.
• 6:46
  Roy: 40%.
• 6:47
  Penny: And specific to The US, he flagged that former president Trump pushed in an astounding 10,000,000,000,000 in new dollars this year alone.
• 6:54
  Roy: 10,000,000,000,000 just this year.
• 6:56
  Penny: Yeah. And get this for perspective, all US stocks combined, they total about $61,600,000,000,000. So that $10,000,000,000,000 pumped in this year, that's nearly 20% of the entire value of The US stock market just injected.
• 7:10
  Roy: Wow. That's hard to even wrap your head
• 7:12
  Penny: around. It really is. And the August treasury report just poured gasoline on that fire. Phil had a, quote, raw unfiltered reaction when he saw it.
• 7:20
  Roy: What did he say?
• 7:21
  Penny: He saw a $345,000,000,000 deficit in August. The projection was only $300,000,000. He said, this is a 14 run rate on our deficit doubly Biden's last year. What a disaster.
• 7:34
  Roy: A $4,000,000,000,000 run rate Yeah. Doubling doubling the previous year. Good grief.
• 7:39
  Penny: It's just unprecedented government spending and money creation fueling this. That's the tide lifting the market boats right now.
• 7:47
  Roy: So for you, the listener, the investor Mhmm. The takeaway is that this money, it just have to go somewhere. Right?
• 7:52
  Penny: Pretty much. Real estate is still tricky. Oil's volatile. T bills maybe aren't exciting enough.
• 7:58
  Roy: So Soxidus.
• 7:59
  Penny: So US equities are just swollen with dollars. It's this artificial boost from overwhelming liquidity, not necessarily because the underlying economy is firing on cylinders.
• 8:08
  Roy: Which really changes how you have to think about the market.
• 8:11
  Penny: Completely. It leads directly to this fundamental shift philstockworld.com is talking about. They state it pretty bluntly. The era of don't fight the Fed is ending. The new era of the Fed can't win is beginning.
• 8:22
  Roy: The Fed can't win.
• 8:24
  Penny: Yeah. It confirms we're in this new monetary regime, one defined by persistent inflation with constrained monetary policy. The Fed's hands are tied.
• 8:34
  Roy: Okay. So if the Fed is kind of stuck, maybe even irrelevant in some ways now, and we're in this whole new environment, what does that actually mean for us as investors? Who wins? Who loses here?
• 8:46
  Penny: Right. So in this hire for longer world where inflation sticks around, some sectors are just better positioned. Think about financials like the XLF ETF. They tend to benefit when rate cuts are slower and the yield curve steepens.
• 8:58
  Roy: Okay. Financials. What else?
• 8:59
  Penny: Commodities and energy. They're supported by that persistent inflation, that cost push environment we talked about.
• 9:04
  Roy: Makes sense. Inflation hedges.
• 9:06
  Penny: Exactly. And along those lines, real assets and TPS, those treasury inflation protected securities, they inherently gain value when inflation is high. These are kind of the structural winners in this setup.
• 9:17
  Roy: Got it. So financials, commodities, real assets. What about the flip side? Who might struggle in this environment?
• 9:24
  Penny: Well, the losers from inflation reacceleration, as they put it, would include things like long duration bonds, think the TLT ETF. They get hurt by rising yields and inflation risk.
• 9:35
  Roy: Okay. Long bonds are out.
• 9:37
  Penny: Generally less attractive. Yeah. Also, those high multiple growth stocks, companies trading at really high valuations, they get squeezed by rising discount rates, plus their profit margins can get compressed by rising costs.
• 9:49
  Roy: Right. Growth stocks take a hit.
• 9:50
  Penny: And finally, consumer discretionary stocks. Companies selling nonessential goods and services. They're likely to struggle as people's purchasing power gets eroded by inflation, forcing them to cut back or trade down to cheaper alternatives.
• 10:03
  Roy: So things people want versus things people need?
• 10:06
  Penny: Pretty much. The core message here really is that your investment strategy must adapt. Things like inflation hedges, real assets, they become structurally more important in your portfolio now.
• 10:17
  Roy: Adaptability is key. So how does fieldstockworld.com help people actually do that? How do they translate this complex stuff into, you know, practical steps for investors? Do they share examples, like, in their master classes?
• 10:29
  Penny: Oh, absolutely. That's a huge part of their value, the educational piece. There was a great PSW master class recently called Patients Premium and Position Management. It actually came from a member's question.
• 10:41
  Roy: Oh, yeah. What was the question about?
• 10:43
  Penny: This member, clowndaddy247 four seven apparently, was asking about adjusting some winning bull call spreads they had on in companies like FIUU and TER. They were up nicely.
• 10:54
  Roy: Right. The classic what do I do now problem when a trade works.
• 10:58
  Penny: Exactly. And Phil's core lesson was honestly pretty profound. He said, normal people are thrilled to make this kind of money on their investments. They don't look for ways to unwind it.
• 11:08
  Roy: That's a great point. It's easy to overthink it when you're winning.
• 11:11
  Penny: It really is. So his advice was simple. Be patient. Let time decay or SADA work for you if the trade is still on track. He used a great line.
• 11:20
  Always remember that 60% in the hand is worth a 120% in the bush.
• 11:24
  Roy: Take the solid win rather than risking it all for maybe more.
• 11:27
  Penny: Precisely. It highlights that just being active, tinkering all the time, that's not a strategy. Sometimes the absolute best move is to just sit tight and let the trade play out as planned.
• 11:38
  Roy: Such a valuable lesson in discipline. That reminds me of another great masterclass example they did, the Barrick Three Ways. Taking one idea and showing how it fits different goals.
• 11:49
  Penny: That was a brilliant one. It used Barrick Gold, the miner, and perfectly showed how they apply their expertise in a really practical way. The core idea was simple: use gold miners as a hedge against all this money printing, this currency debasement.
• 12:03
  Roy: Okay, simple enough thesis.
• 12:04
  Penny: But then they showed how to execute that one idea for three totally different types of portfolios and risk levels. It was really instructive.
• 12:11
  Roy: How do they break it down?
• 12:13
  Penny: Okay. First, for the STP, that's their strategic trading portfolio, focused on hedging and income. The play was selling long dated puts on Barrick.
• 12:21
  Roy: Selling puts. Okay.
• 12:22
  Penny: Right. It brings in cash premium upfront, which can fund other hedges. You're basically saying you're willing to buy Barrick shares, but at a lower predetermined price if the stock drops. You get paid to potentially buy low.
• 12:34
  Roy: Smart. Getting paid to wait. What about the next one?
• 12:37
  Penny: Then for the $700 month portfolio, this one's designed for more conservative growth, maybe in an IRA, no margin needed. Here, the strategy was a bull call spread using longer term twenty twenty seven calls.
• 12:49
  Roy: A defined risk play.
• 12:50
  Penny: Exactly. Limited cost upfront. Plus, they added selling shorter term calls against it for extra income. So you get a defined spread with significant percentage upside potential plus ongoing income generation, perfect for steady growth.
• 13:04
  Roy: Nice. And the last one for more aggressive folks.
• 13:08
  Penny: That was the LTP, the long term portfolio. This is where they aim for more leverage and capital efficiency. It was a more complex, full size position using a mix of long calls, short calls, and short puts, all structured around a wide bull spread.
• 13:21
  Roy: Okay. More moving parts there.
• 13:22
  Penny: Definitely. But the result was pretty amazing. They structured it to actually generate a net credit when entering a large potential spread. So you get paid to open a position with huge upside potential, like 550% in their example, plus you collect significant premium income along the way.
• 13:39
  Roy: Wow. So one idea hedge with gold miners but tailored perfectly for hedging, conservative growth, or leveraged returns.
• 13:47
  Penny: That's the power of applying expertise. It shows how you can take a single market view and make it work for your situation, your risk tolerance, your account type that's real educational value.
• 13:58
  Roy: Absolutely. It really showcases how they translate analysis into action. Okay, shifting gears slightly. Looking ahead, everyone's laser focused on the Fed again. Chair on Powell's press conference on Sept.
• 14:09
  Seventeen. That's gonna be huge, isn't it?
• 14:12
  Penny: Monumental is probably not too strong a word. Powell has an incredibly difficult communications challenge ahead of him.
• 14:17
  Roy: What's the main tightrope he has to walk this time?
• 14:19
  Penny: Well, he must explain why cutting rates with 3.1% core inflation is appropriate. That's not an easy sell.
• 14:26
  Roy: No kidding.
• 14:27
  Penny: He also needs to somehow square the circle on the recent producer price index, PPI, showing some decline, while the consumer price index, CPI, is accelerating. How do those fit together?
• 14:38
  Roy: Good question.
• 14:39
  Penny: And crucially, what inflation level would actually make them pause any rate cuts? Where's the line in the sand? The conflicting data just makes his job incredibly tough, trying to sound coherent and confident about the path forward.
• 14:53
  Roy: Yeah, that old phrase data dependent suddenly feels way more complicated, doesn't it? When the data itself is shouting different things, makes the outlook for 2025 feel much more uncertain.
• 15:04
  Penny: Absolutely. And investors like those at philstockworld.com, they're actively gaming this out, you know, thinking about positioning, maybe favoring financials, maybe shorting duration bonds.
• 15:13
  Roy: Preparing for different scenarios.
• 15:15
  Penny: Exactly. What if it's a 25 basis point cut, but Powell sounds really hawkish? Or what if he sounds dovish? This environment really screams for nimble tactical positioning over traditional buy and hold strategies. You gotta be ready to adjust.
• 15:29
  Roy: What a fascinating and maybe slightly unnerving picture you've painted today. We've covered this ongoing fight with sticky inflation, the market's surprising dance with just massive amounts of liquidity.
• 15:40
  Penny: Yeah. That liquidity factor is key.
• 15:41
  Roy: And the absolute necessity of adapting your investment strategy for this, well, new landscape. It really underscores the value of having sharp analysis like from philstockworld.com to cut through the confusion?
• 15:54
  Penny: No doubt about it. We are pretty clearly in a new monetary regime, one where, frankly, the Fed can't win in the traditional sense. And a lot of the old investing rules, they might just not apply anymore. Understanding that shift is, really step one for every investor right now.
• 16:11
  Roy: So the big question we want to leave you with today is this. Thinking about this persistent structural inflation combined with these huge liquidity injections. What does that truly mean for your long term financial plan? For your investment decisions, especially when the Fed, the traditional anchor, seems to be in such an impossible position?
• 16:29
  Penny: It's definitely something to chew on.
• 16:31
  Roy: It really is. Something that requires some careful thought and maybe some deeper exploration on your part. Thanks for diving deep with us today.