Latest / Financial Survival Network / Bitcoin Boom and Metal Moves - Craig Hemke #6108

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Bitcoin Boom and Metal Moves - Craig Hemke #6108 · Financial Survival Network

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I got a ge I'd much rather own bitcoin than little eatie bitty expiration companies
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it's for or treasury. Yeah darn, but yeah, you know it's interesting,
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Carrie. It looked you know, we record that we're recording this on
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Monday the twenty second. If you just go back to last Tuesday, the
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whatever that is, sixteenth, man, it looked great. We looked like
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we were ready to rock and roll. In hindsight, now we can look
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back and see why we've been under such pressure for the last three or four
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days. You were listening to Carrie. Let'sa's financial survival network where you get
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You need the Financial Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork
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than ever, and welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network.
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I'm your host Carry Lutz, and our good friend Craig Hemp keys with
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us and you find him at TF Metals Report dot com. Craig, go
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the medals are going down right now. And thought we were at the Promised
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Land but other good news. Bitcoin's going up. How about that? Hey,
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you know what, you're got to have some zig and some zag in
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your portfolio. A lot of people assume that I must hate bitcoin or something
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because I've been a gold enthusiast now for fifteen years. But now I owned
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both. Why wouldn't you own both? And so, yeah, that's been
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nice to see. You know, it looked a little shapyh what a week
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or two ago and it got down to what fifty five thousand or so?
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Right, fifty four? Yeah, I got a gell. I'd much rather
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own bitcoin than little eatie bitty expiration companies it's full or treasury. Yeah darn,
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but yeah, you know it's interesting Carrie. It looked you know,
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we record that we're recording this on Monday, the twenties. Second, if
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you just go back to last Tuesday, the whatever that is, sixteenth.
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Yeah, man, it looked great. We looked like we were ready to
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rock and roll. In hindsight, now we can look back and see why
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we've been under such pressure for the last three or four days. And again,
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I don't this is not surprising. Both medals are in kind of a
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trading range and have been for either sixty or ninety days, depending on which
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one you're looking at. I think we're set up though, after we get
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through this week and probably next or at least the first part of next week,
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we're set up for a very strong seasonal time August. Seasonally, if
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you average out all the August over the last twenty five years, August on
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average is the second best month of the year after January. So we're probably
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just a little bit of a washout, getting some speculative money out of gold
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and silver before we get the next leg higher. So we're gonna blow through
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twenty five hundred. Obviously, where is it going to stop. We're going
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to hit three thousand and then a pause. I don't think we'll make it
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that far. You know, that's the hard part. Uh. You look
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at silver and you can you know, and if you're trying to use a
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chart, a price chart to figure out you know, where the next resistance
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is, you look at silver and you oh, this is pretty clear.
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And we talked about remember we had to get through twenty six, then you
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had to get through twenty eight, and then once you got through twenty eight,
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you're going to go above thirty. And now we can see thirty four
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or thirty six, right, because that would those lows back in twenty eleven
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and twenty twelve. But gold and gold's never been here before. Yeah,
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so how do you try to project? Yeah? So, I mean there
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are people that do fibonacci, you know, extensions and stuff like that.
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Uh, carnal to say, let alone figure out how it works. See
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right, I Uh, let's just say this, gold well and silver too
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will continue to move higher in stages in a bull mark the way they always
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have as long as the derivatives market is allowed to set the price, and
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that's the discovery method that we have, then bull markets are gonna unroll the
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way they always have, which is kind of two steps forward, one step
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back. You get this big rush of excitement and inspecuative money comes in,
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and the hedge funds get long and the banks get short, and then you
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run out of momentum and you run out of buyers and price tips over and
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breaks a moving average, and then the spec money floods out and the banks
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cover their shorts, and then you reach the bottom. And then you go
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back and think of it as like a series of higher highs and higher lows.
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Did you see in just about anything. That's why I don't think three
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thousands of next target. It's probably more like once you have a clear breakout,
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there'll be another rush of enthusiasm, probably twenty six fifty ish twenty six
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or something like that, and then okay, well twenty five hundred's with any
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ear shot right, Oh last week it was within Yeah, we're looking at
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it last week at this time, so yeah. Yeah. You know what's
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nice carry is when you get into lawng trading ranges like this can work both
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ways. You know, when you're breaking down and price keeps bouncing off the
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support, and then everybody starts watching it and goes, oh, crap,
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if we break down through that level of I got to get out and you
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got all these cell stops in there. It works the other way though,
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too, when you break out of a range and gold's now been in this
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range for really ninety days, been up to twenty four fifty, twenty four,
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seventy eighty three times now, the same thing is true everybody, Oh
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it's a clear breakout. Okay, now there's and so that the longer you
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stay in a range, the more likely that you're going to have, you
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know, a pretty good popworn again. Look back at gold on the you
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know, for from twenty and twenty, the middle of twenty twenty to the
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first part of this year, gold kept banging up against two thousand, right,
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and this long drawn out rage, and once it finally blasted through,
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you would up one hundred dollars the next week, and then another two hundred
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dollars in the next five weeks because everybody saw it. And that's what we'll
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wait for as we get into August and September and that kind of break out
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again. So what about silver, you know, that's been the comeback to
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around the thirtieth range here and even lower. Yeah, it's under Silver is
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back to kind of what do you remember, Well, like I just mentioned,
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gold broke out in March. March the first was a Friday, you
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know, it tried to break out December first and then just got the chart
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got painted. Remember it's on a Sunday night, December the third. I
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was at lambeau Field to watch the chiefs and the packers. That popped like
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sixty bucks in like fifteen minutes of the session. Then they boom, they
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hammered it down one hundred and twenty bucks and now the charts painted. Everybody
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hates it, and they bought themselves. They be in the banks that you
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know, monopolistically control that market. They bought themselves ninety days to kind of
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get them their books right. And then on Friday, March the first ninety
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days later, gold breaks out on the weekly chart, closed like twenty sixty
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seven or twenty seventy five, something like that, on a clear breakout,
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and then rallied one hundred dollars the next all right, so rallies through March.
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There was like, well, why the hell is in silver going anywhere?
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The same thing like now and again I think this The reason is the
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same. It's because silver's kind of caught in the middle. You know.
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You and I think of that as a monetary medal and an investment, but
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most of the world thinks of it as an industrial metal. So it's this
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combination. So think of you've got up on one side of a barbell.
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You've got gold as a monetary medal, and you've got copper as an industrial
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metal, and silver's kind of in between. And if both gold and copper
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are going up, silver's going to go up. But if gold goes up
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and copper goes down, silver just kind of stays in between. Does that
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make sense, Yeah, and that's what's happening. Copper just blew higher in
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April and May and dragged silver along with it. Copper got to over eleven
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thousand a ton in London, it got to five five dollars and seventeen a
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pound in New York in the middle of by, and now two months later
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it's for to seventeen a pound. That's twenty percent decline. If silver were
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to fall twenty percent from its highs, we'd be talking twenty six twenty seven.
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So silver again, it's just kind of like I think that. I
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mean, it's kind of a brute force a metaphor analogy, but it's kind
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of one got up, the other guy down to it. It's just kind
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of rotating in the middle. So if copper to turn again and gold to
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go, that silver will break out too. Interesting that copper is staying above
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four bucks though, you know, just putting Yeah, boy, what a
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dog it has just been. And again for silver investors this will sound familiar.
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Go back to twenty eleven. Remember silver was soaring and then it got
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crushed on that May Day massacre of May twenty eleven, and then to see
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it, then the SeeMe raised margins five times in nine days, and so
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everybody that bought in the forties, all of a sudden they were underwater and
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they got margin calls and they all dumped and price fell into the low thirties.
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Well, the same They did the same thing to freaking copper in May.
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They raised margins four times in seven days. And so everybody that thought,
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you know, there's a short squeeze, there's you know, dwindling global
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stockpiles and all this kind of stuff. Everybody that got in from four fifty
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and four seventy and four ninety, all of a sudden they raised margins and
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then price collapses and they can all get flushed back out. It's just the
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same crap. And they do it every time, Right, is there gonna
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be a time way margins? And it doesn't respond. Remember the tamp tamp
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tamp from the silver squeeze. You know, it's like, whose side are
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you on? Well, we're on We're on the side of the bullioned banks
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and the precious metals and traffic Eura and the other uh, you know,
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the big copper dealers in the copper market. We can't have them getting squeezed.
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Remember there were back in middle of May, there was all these like
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Bloomberg stories about how their records show they were going to float in some copper
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concentrate, you know, on tankers to try to There were those stories.
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So instead they smashed the futures price and all the same, Oh witnesson,
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we get don't to worry about that kind of stuff. Problem solved, problem
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solved. Yeah, crazy crazy. So so you think this little lull that's
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coming up is a good buying opportunity, Craig uh, Yes, Like I
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said, from a seasonality standpoint, right, really late July through August in
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about the first half of September is almost as strong as late December and January.
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So I think that doesn't mean it goes up every August. Chances are
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August and then you look at, you know, kind of the economic fundamental
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picture of a slowing economy. All of a sudden, you know, everybody's
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thinking at least two rate cuts. We're going to get the FOMC meeting next
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week that maybe Powell's going to be hinting at what's to come, right,
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and then by later next week we get the next jobs report, you know,
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and all of a sudden, oh, that jobs report from July gets
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you know, revised down like almost every other job report. We're there,
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right, so the fundamental picture starts to kind of flip in our favor,
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I think in August as well. But in the meantime, first again,
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two steps forward to one step back. Let me like a stat on you,
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Kerry and I don't numbers. If I could flash us on the screen,
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if easier for people to, I want people to kind of steep,
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they can bump this we get with all commodities. The CFTC, the Commodity
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Futures Trading Commission, puts out a report every Friday called the Commitment of Traders.
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And it's not just gold and silver, I mean, it's everything.
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What makes hold and silver unique is there's always these banks that are always short.
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They're never long, always short. Sometimes they are long ass and P
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futures and bond futures and for X futures and oops, hit my microphone,
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they hit everything else. Yeah, they're so anyway, so we can track
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if you follow these things historically, which I do. I've got a stack
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of over ten years worth of these things handwritten on my desk to my right.
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That's this big stack of paperback here. Yeah. Then you can look
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for historical trends, okay, and then you can go back and look at
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price and go, well, what happened the last time? The structure within
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this report was like this. Okay with me so far? Yeah, I'm
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following last Tuesday when gold was right on the verge of breaking out and we're
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all excited. I was excited. Heck, I bought a call on Komik
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silver that day, That's how excited I was. There was a commitment of
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trader survey at the close when all these positions get reported. Now the CFTC,
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of course, they don't release that information the next day, don't.
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Oh, of course not three days later and after the close on Friday,
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seventy four hours later they gave you this information. Had we had this information
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on Wednesday, it might have impacted how people were trading. So what was
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the information on Friday? Let me, ladies on if within these categories you
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have large what they call large speculators, which are like hedge funds, family
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offices and the length. And then there are commercials which are like uh mine
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mining companies that still hedge or these bullion banks. Okay, here we go.
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As of last Tuesday, we got all these positions. The last time
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the large speculator category was net long, they got they got their gross long
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and grow short the net number. The last time that net long number of
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contracts was this high. Price fell one hundred and thirty four dollars in the
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next week. It's better, well, it gets worse. The last time
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the gross long the amount of just straight up contracts that the speculatory category is
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long comex gold price fell one hundred and seventeen dollars the next week. The
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next five days after that COT survey, the last time the commercials the banks
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were net short this many comex contracts as they were last Tuesday. Price fell
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one hundred and twenty two dollars the next week. All right, well that
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survey was last Tuesday. We've had three market days, and now as we
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record this, we on day four before the next survey on Tuesday, golds
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down about eighty five dollars. So far. Uh see a pattern here?
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Checking it's it sounds like a coincidence to me, and asked to me,
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it wouldn't have been handy knowing this history. For like the people on my
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site. If I could have gotten on on Wednesday and said, oh crap,
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this commitment of trader and known all this information. But I didn't know
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this information till Friday at three thirty Eastern. Then I got to go through
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all these sheets back here to get all dig all that data out of there.
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Uh you need an intern to put all this data on the computer.
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Yeah, really good point. I don't see. There are some things that
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are sackrisank that I got to have that, But the moral story is getting
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all this back to what we've been talking about for people that are still with
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us. We are now in a week where this week, in particularly the
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economic data is going to be funky. We got the next PCE report coming
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on Friday, so we've got to navigate our way through the inflation data.
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But on Thursday, the all the options for the August contract and Comax gold
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get priced. With all this bullishness, there's a lot more calls there aren't
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put so there's reason to kind of rig it down. Then you've got I
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mentioned all these speculators, hedge funds and the like that are long COMECX goal,
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Well most of them have been long the front month, the August contract
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when so they're gonna have to liquid it because they're not standing for delivery,
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so they got to sell those. Okay, so that's natural selling pressure.
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Now, if you take one hundred August contracts and sell them, but then
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immediately turn around by one hundred December contracts long, well the net pressure is
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nothing. But when price is going down, maybe wait, carry you going.
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You know, I still want to be long gold, but I think
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it's going to go down here in the show. So I'm gonna sell my
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hundred, but I'm only going to buy back fifty in December. Well that's
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fifty contracts in that selling pressure. Get enough of these large back liquidations and
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it's just a natural So you've got option expiration coming up, You've got uh
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that contract going off the board. That's a lot of just natural selling pressure
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that we're gonna have to deal with over the next six or seven trading days.
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So I'm just kind of expecting kind of a short turn low by then
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and then then we'll see what happens in August. You can see it.
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I can see it makes total sense here. And but like you say,
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they generally they haven't been able to turn back the seasonality right right, Yeah,
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again, it doesn't mean just like we don't go up in every January,
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doesn't mean price has to go higher in August. Big glee though.
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You know it's like people talk, oh, yeah, the stock market goes
16:56
down in October, you know, or selling may and go away, that
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kind of stuff for the stock market. It's that's what they're talking about,
17:03
is seasonality. So yeahhpically, and then if you combine that with like what
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I said, what if the jobs report on the first Friday after we just
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get through the FMC is weaker than expected finally, and the unemployment rateticks up
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again to four point third above disappointed expert disappointed by latest jobs report? Right,
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what if you get that kind of stuff, and then everybody won be
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waiting for Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium, you know, coming up in
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late August, and then he'll be setting the table for rate cuts, you
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know, as soon as the September, so that the narrative will could potentially
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shift, and that might be enough. I mean, Gould's already been anticipating
17:38
all of this since March, but once it finally begins to happen, that
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might be enough to kick us out to the upside. Hey, what about
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rate cuts here? We've been expecting and expecting. They got to do it
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now, right, you would think, I know, I would normally say
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absolutely, And the FED Fund's futures and all those projections are now saying for
18:00
sure too, maybe three cuts iNFiNiT funds before the end of the year.
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Back in the end of last year, it was obvious to me and I
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wrote about it in my annual forecast in January when they were saying seven or
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eight rake cuts this year, I thought that was there was no way that
18:17
was gonna happen, and it you know, and obviously it didn't. Gold
18:22
survived that and actually rallied, which is remarkable. I'm little skeptised, getting
18:29
to be too many people on that side of the boat again. That's why
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I'm a little cautious as we get later into this week, like about this
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PCEE inflation data. If it comes in as slightly hotter and expected, everybody's
18:41
gonna go, oh, no, well, maybe it's only gonna be one
18:42
rate cut this year, and we're playing all those games again. However,
18:45
once they get started and it becomes obvious and not only do they have to
18:51
cut rates, but we got to get into end time something like yield curve
18:55
controlled just simply so that we can fund the ongoing deficits of dead and the
19:00
interest on the national debt as that all plays out. I mean, it's
19:03
so fundamentally positive for gold and silver. But again maybe the next week or
19:07
ten days we're just going to have to battle it a little bit. All
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right, all right, definitely interesting times here, Craig. So for this
19:17
you take a longer review and you just buy physical then, right, Yeah,
19:21
that's I mean, that's where we talk about it my website all the
19:23
time. Are there are cas? You know, we talk about the mining
19:26
shares because a lot of people own them. I own them too. People
19:30
that are are members of my site can see the ones that I own,
19:33
if you know, and then they know which ones to stay away from.
19:38
But yeah, in the end, it's that physical metal that's your has always
19:42
been your kind of lifeboat, you know, through the tempest to get you
19:48
into safe harbor eventually. And there's just there's just acting. The math is
19:53
the math, man, I mean, thirty five trillion dollar debt now we're
19:59
paying over a trillion dollars a year just to service that. We get into
20:04
a recession and tax receipts fall while spending increases. We're gonna be consistently running
20:11
two trillion or more every year. I mean this, And is not like
20:14
people should say, oh that Trump, he's gonna come in and he's he
20:18
doesn't have a track record of being a deficit hawk, so I wouldn't necessarily,
20:22
you know, look for some big change even if if Trump is elected.
20:26
I mean, the math is the math, and this is all why
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again. Yeah, the best thing I've always you know, advised people to
20:33
do is look at owning physical and you don't take all of your cash out
20:37
of the bank and go buy gold and bury in the backyard. You wouldn't
20:40
do that with anything but as a hedge against all of this, as an
20:42
insurance policy against all this is again that lifeboat in the storm. That's what
20:47
the physical medals are for. Yeah, that's it, exactly, the insurance
20:52
policy, the ultimate insurance policy. And all right, well, hey,
20:56
as always great talking to you, catching up and getting your latest take on
21:00
things. Sounds like, sounds like as usually, you got a pretty good
21:04
handle on it. And I encourage all of you to go over to Tfmetalsreport
21:10
dot com, subscribe and get Craig's latest take on what's unfolding in the markets
21:17
here. It's been very annie over the years. I mean I remember like
21:22
three years ago talking about this and bum like clockwork Greig. So, hey,
21:30
you got a question where Craig or myself shoot me an email. Hey,
21:33
l at Carrie Let's dot com. Make sure you subscribe to TF Metals
21:37
Report dot com. Get it. You get a free weekly newsletter, and
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hey, if you pay a little more than an inflated bust of a latte
21:48
per day, you'll get to be you get to be on the forum there,
21:52
yep. And a post every morning to kind of summarize the news the
21:56
day, and then a podcast every afternoon to summarize the news today. So
21:59
we'll keep in front as best we can of what's coming. All right,
22:03
cool, all right? Hey, and you find a link to Greig's site
22:07
on the show notes this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. Just click
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it, take you right through. While you're there, sign up for your
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free newsletter. Greg. Always a pleasure. We'll talk to you again real
22:18
soon. I always look forward to it. Kerry, thanks for listening to
22:21
Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network. Your solution to today's trying times. For the
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