Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk AM 10/15/2026 with Jed Sidwell | Inflation Rises and Stocks Fall

Transcript

AG Squawk AM 10/15/2026 with Jed Sidwell | Inflation Rises and Stocks Fall · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning and welcome to Ag Squawk AM.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell here, live from Juliet, Illinois.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: Today we have to discuss some of the insane weather patterns that my alma mater state of Oklahoma is having.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: Not to mention, we have the Conab.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: We have boxed beef information.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: As we look here live at the markets this morning, the live cattle came back down a bit hard yesterday.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: So did most of the livestock space.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: They were down about a dollar and a quarter at 225.13.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: Feeder cattle were down two and a half bucks at 338.45.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: Lean hogs closed around 66 bucks, down two bucks.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: As I quote the grain market here live, I'd like to shout out our sponsor, plus 500.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: We use plus 500 T4 trading software to quote the markets every single day.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: And as I look here live, the December corn contract up just a little bit this morning.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: It's at$4.80 and three quarters.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: Uh November soybeans is at$12.73 and a quarter.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: And Chicago December week is at$6.75 even.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: On to the weather discussion for today.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: And as we, you know, start to diagnose some of these insane things that have been happening throughout the country the past couple days, but man, Oklahoma has gotten the absolute brunt of it.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_00: Serious flooding in central and southwestern Oklahoma and some of nearby Texas with two-day totals of two and a half to six inches commonly and localized.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: There have been reports of upwards to ten.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: They were six plus inches confirmed in Clinton, Weatherford, and Oklahoma City.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: Just some absolute crazy things.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: I was getting Snapchat videos of some of my friends that still live down in Oklahoma.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: Whitewater rapids running through fields.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: That'll still be really interesting to see what happens to the wheat crop there.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_00: Certainly some damage will be occurring.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: A sharp cooldown tomorrow into the weekend brings the first sub-freezing lows of the fall to sizable parts of the plains and cornbelt before warmth returns.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to be talking about South America some.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: So the Southern and Brazil Paraguay area is finally drying out through Thursday before heavy rain returns Tuesday night.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: The Conab report, if you don't know what that is, it's essentially the WASDI report for just South America.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: And looking at some of the things on it today, those areas in the yellow there are the ranges to what estimates are saying is going to come from this report.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: The blue on the right is what the WASD said.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: Normally the what the Conab report is out at 7 a.m.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_00: Central.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: That's before I record this, but there seem to be some technical difficulties over there, and they reported an outage yesterday which could back this report as of 7.18 this morning.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: There is no report yet.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_00: We will make sure and get you that information as it comes out.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: On the livestock market side of things, that's the forward beef sales share of boxed beef volume.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: Buyers are booking a smaller share of boxed beef for later delivery than in any year of the USDA going all the way back to 2007.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: And as you look towards that dark blue line there, that's 2026 at the bottom.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: That is a 9% forward forward beef sales share of boxed beef.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: Not necessarily where we want that number at.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: This is the chart of the day.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to get a lot covered today, and I thought this chart of the day was something on everyone's mind.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: Doesn't matter whether you're an ag, sales, retail, all the different things are inflect infected by affected by inflation right now.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: And the September CPI rose 0.6% on the month.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: That's 3.7% year over year.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: And the big culprit there is, you know, energy prices.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: Gasoline alone rose 9.1% year over year.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: Or not not year over year, month to month, excuse me.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: And as we look at this kind of core consumer price inflation, that's everything minus food and energy.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: If you look at that grain there, that's the three-month annualized, it's up 3.41%.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: That's huge.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, that is a drastic change in just three months.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: Inflation affects everything right now.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: Go to your local McDonald's and look at the change in the price of a McMuffin or a McChicken.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: Something that used to be one of the cheapest things on the menu has almost doubled in price in the past five years.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: This is the breaking news for today, and this is truly affecting these grain markets, whether we want to admit it or not.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: Stock stocks affect everything we do, just like inflation.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: The SP 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures fell to this morning as concerns around tech companies overspending on artificial intelligence grew while traders awaited in earnings reports and economic data after a losing session yesterday.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: And as I look here right now at this SP chart, the December E mini is what I'm looking at, is down about 0.3% just overnight.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: A huge move down there.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: And that's not the actual SP, that's just the mini contract that I look at from the day to day.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: Well, thank you for watching and thank you for listening, folks.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: And this is what we have on the economic calendar for today.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, that CONAV has not come out yet, but it should come out here any minute.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: The jobless claims comes out at 7.30 a.m.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: Same as the PPI and the retail sales.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: Natural gas storage change comes out at 9.30, and the EIA energy stocks come out at 11.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: And as we look for look forward here to the weekend, make sure and pay attention to weather, folks.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: It's absolutely affecting these markets right now.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: Weather, outside markets, year-round have an effect, but it seems right now, more than ever, they are changing things.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: Make sure and catch this show wherever it's convenient for you.
• 6:45
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• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: on X and Davis's show.
• 6:52
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• 6:56
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• 7:08
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• 7:17
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• 7:25
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• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: Well, thank you for tuning in this morning, folks.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: Make sure and catch Davis Michelson this afternoon.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_00: He has a great show planned for today.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Jed Sidwell with AgBull Media.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_00: We're a financial channel that absolutely loves agriculture.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: Have a great day.