Transcript

Credlin | 5 May · Credlin

0:02
Speaker 1: Peter Krandland live on Sky News Australia.
0:07
Speaker 2: Good evening, welcome to the program. Well, it was a
0:09
Speaker 2: seismic election result over the weekend that most pollsters did
0:13
Speaker 2: not predict and of course huge ramifications too for the
0:16
Speaker 2: Liberal Party. Counting continues tonight. I'll get you the latest
0:19
Speaker 2: in those numbers and speculation two swirling around a new
0:23
Speaker 2: Liberal leader. I'll give you my thoughts on what happened
0:26
Speaker 2: over the last six weeks in a moment, here's what's
0:28
Speaker 2: coming up. Re Elected PM Anthony el Wheneasy returns to
0:31
Speaker 2: work following that landslide victory, will break down the result
0:34
Speaker 2: and discuss what three more years of labor means for
0:36
Speaker 2: the future of our country. Andrew Hasty tonight reportedly ruling
0:40
Speaker 2: himself out of the Liberal leadership. A speculation continues around
0:44
Speaker 2: Angus Taylor, Dan Tien and Susan Lee as the shell
0:48
Speaker 2: shop coalition scrambles to figure out what went wrong. Former
0:52
Speaker 2: coalition Treasurer Peter Costello says it was a lack of
0:55
Speaker 2: a bold economic agenda at fault. As the coalition campaign
0:59
Speaker 2: comes un fierce attack. Labor ahead in the polls going
1:03
Speaker 2: into election day, but no one predicted they'd win such
1:06
Speaker 2: a decisive majority. Redbridge Polster Cos Samaras will explain why
1:12
Speaker 2: the pollsters were so far off, and as I search
1:15
Speaker 2: for a new Liberal leader, well, that's work is underway.
1:19
Speaker 2: The Australians editor at Large Paul Kelly warns the party
1:22
Speaker 2: that it's facing an identity crisis.
1:25
Speaker 3: The only way they can get out of this is
1:28
Speaker 3: to go back to the drawing board and revise the
1:31
Speaker 3: fundamentals of the party from top to bottom.
1:34
Speaker 2: That's going to be very hard, but first bear with me.
1:39
Speaker 2: It's been a long campaign, not just the official thirty
1:42
Speaker 2: three days, so I am going to give you a
1:44
Speaker 2: considered response to the weekend's big win for the Prime Minister.
1:48
Speaker 2: Certainly not the result I was hoping for, and I
1:51
Speaker 2: suspect most of you either. My hope was that the
1:54
Speaker 2: elector would punish a pool government that had broken promises,
1:57
Speaker 2: let them down and made their lives more different despite
2:01
Speaker 2: legitimate misgivings they might have had about the opposition, maybe
2:04
Speaker 2: not enough to win, but enough to make the chance
2:07
Speaker 2: of winning in a three years time more likely than not.
2:11
Speaker 2: But that's not what happened electorally. There's been a wipeout
2:15
Speaker 2: more so for the Liberals than the Nationals, and I'll
2:18
Speaker 2: get to that in a moment. And Labor under our
2:21
Speaker 2: Albanzy has broken records, with alban Ezi now the only
2:24
Speaker 2: third Labor leader in its one hundred and twenty year
2:28
Speaker 2: history to win two terms of government after GoF Whitlam
2:32
Speaker 2: and Bob Hawk. Now, on the numbers as they stand tonight,
2:35
Speaker 2: Labor holds eighty seven seats in the House, thirteen seats
2:39
Speaker 2: still undecided. Even now, that's better than Kevin Rud's Kevin
2:44
Speaker 2: oh seven landslide win of eighty three of eighty three seats,
2:49
Speaker 2: better than Hawk's eighty two seats, but it's still a
2:52
Speaker 2: long way short of Howard's ninety four seat win in
2:55
Speaker 2: nineteen ninety six or Abbott's landslide of ninety seats in
2:59
Speaker 2: twenty five thirteen. The commentators are pointing out that what's
3:02
Speaker 2: remarkable here about this win is that it is a
3:06
Speaker 2: second term win, and a win of such magnitude. And
3:10
Speaker 2: they're right, that's why they say. On the numbers as
3:13
Speaker 2: they stand, coalition looks like it's out for two terms.
3:18
Speaker 2: But let's add some perspective here. In two thousand and four,
3:23
Speaker 2: Howard was neck and neck with Labour's Mark Latham for
3:25
Speaker 2: much of that campaign. Now I remember it well. It
3:28
Speaker 2: was my husband's first effort as Howard's federal campaign director,
3:32
Speaker 2: and in the end Howard won eighty seven seats, almost
3:37
Speaker 2: what Albanezy has won over the weekend. That was at
3:40
Speaker 2: Howard's third election. I think that stands as some sort
3:43
Speaker 2: of record. Even still, there was a whopping primary vote
3:47
Speaker 2: forty six point seven percent to the Coalition, and he
3:50
Speaker 2: won a rare Senate majority as well. Now people then
3:54
Speaker 2: said Labor was out for a generation. Three years later, though,
3:59
Speaker 2: it was the coal thrown out of office, rud in
4:02
Speaker 2: the lodge, and Howard famously losing his own seat. So
4:07
Speaker 2: hear me on this. In politics, it's never as good
4:10
Speaker 2: as it seems, and it's never as bad as it seems.
4:14
Speaker 2: And if you don't keep your feet on the ground,
4:15
Speaker 2: if you start to believe your own bs, or you're
4:18
Speaker 2: in a hiding to nothing. As Churchill famously said, success
4:21
Speaker 2: is not permanent, failure is not fatal. So sure, there's
4:26
Speaker 2: much to learn from Saturday Night. But if you're a
4:27
Speaker 2: conservative like me, we can't fall into the trap of
4:30
Speaker 2: letting the left right our obituary as I try and
4:34
Speaker 2: bury us because the reality is a lot more nuanced
4:37
Speaker 2: than the headlines. So let's have some perspective on what's
4:41
Speaker 2: happened here and let's now pull apart what went wrong
4:45
Speaker 2: and where to now for the opposition. First up, as
4:48
Speaker 2: I said, Albaneze's win is historic and it's emphatic. He
4:52
Speaker 2: deserves congratulations, as I said on air on Saturday night,
4:55
Speaker 2: because if you underestimate, you're opinot or deny the legitimacy
4:59
Speaker 2: of a big then you can sign yourself to opposition
5:03
Speaker 2: for a very long time. As we can see from
5:06
Speaker 2: state Liberal to do this on a regular basis across
5:09
Speaker 2: the country. Butson, this is a big bart. There are
5:13
Speaker 2: some important points that need to be understood because the
5:16
Speaker 2: seat count is deceptive. Right now, Albanesi has picked up
5:20
Speaker 2: some eighty seven seats of a primary vote of around
5:24
Speaker 2: thirty four point seven percent. Now that primary vote might
5:27
Speaker 2: still bounce around a little as county continues, but that's
5:30
Speaker 2: basically where it is. So a thirty four point seven
5:33
Speaker 2: percent primary and he's got a pickup of eighty seven seats. Now,
5:39
Speaker 2: by contrast, the next best win, as I said by labor,
5:43
Speaker 2: was right in two thousand and seven, and there keven
5:46
Speaker 2: oh seven picked up eighty three seats on a primary
5:49
Speaker 2: of forty three point four percent. Forty three point four percent,
5:54
Speaker 2: Now that's massive, and it's a difference of about ten
5:57
Speaker 2: percentage points on primary for about the same number of
6:00
Speaker 2: seats between Rudd and Albanesi. Indeed, if I take a
6:05
Speaker 2: look at twenty sixteen, Bill Shortened there lost out to
6:07
Speaker 2: Malcolm Turnbull, but he had a primary vote then of
6:10
Speaker 2: thirty four point seventy three percent, and he lost, and
6:15
Speaker 2: yet denied as the healing alban easy as a labor legend.
6:18
Speaker 2: His primary sits on thirty four point seventy nine. Now
6:22
Speaker 2: that's a difference of point zero six of a percent
6:26
Speaker 2: between Shorten's loss and Albanese's triumph point zero six of
6:32
Speaker 2: a percent. And yet Shortened then claim sixty nine seats.
6:36
Speaker 2: Tonight Albanese's got eighty seven. Maybe more so, how does
6:41
Speaker 2: that happen? The key here is obviously the flow of
6:44
Speaker 2: pet preferences and the fact that there are way more
6:46
Speaker 2: players on the left of politics now, some being declared
6:50
Speaker 2: on the left like the Greens, some who pretend they're
6:52
Speaker 2: not on the left but are like the Teals who
6:55
Speaker 2: finnel preferences in a very disciplined way to Labor. Now,
6:59
Speaker 2: this is very much what happened in the recent New
7:00
Speaker 2: k election where Kirstarmer's Labor Party painted the map in red,
7:05
Speaker 2: but of a very low vote share of the national vote.
7:09
Speaker 2: And this is what happened here in Australia on the weekend. Indeed,
7:13
Speaker 2: look at this, Look at the national vote here and
7:15
Speaker 2: sheer numerical terms, you've got four point six two million
7:19
Speaker 2: Australias who voted Labor and four point two three million
7:23
Speaker 2: who voted for the Coalition. Now that's a difference of
7:26
Speaker 2: just some three hundred and ninety one thousand votes. But
7:30
Speaker 2: thanks to where they all fell and the preference flows tonight,
7:34
Speaker 2: Labor out of that hall has got eighty seven seats
7:37
Speaker 2: and the Coalition hasn't even bagged forty. See what I
7:41
Speaker 2: mean here about perspective turnout too, Well, that's worth mentioning.
7:45
Speaker 2: Twenty twenty two Australia had the lowest voter turned out
7:48
Speaker 2: since the First World War of eighty nine point eighty
7:51
Speaker 2: two percent of the electric Right now, according to the
7:54
Speaker 2: AEC's website, it turnouts tracking at seventy seven percent. So
8:00
Speaker 2: to put that too into perspective, that's a massive drop.
8:03
Speaker 2: That says voter engagement in our elections is falling fast.
8:08
Speaker 2: See this is why you need perspective and analyzing election results.
8:13
Speaker 2: You've got to know how to read the numbers because
8:15
Speaker 2: in the end, for all the spin, the numbers are key,
8:18
Speaker 2: Which brings me to the other things that need to
8:20
Speaker 2: invention tonight. About Labour's win, Yes, the labor lies were
8:24
Speaker 2: a big part of it, and the handouts, the hundreds
8:27
Speaker 2: of billions of dollars spent buying the support of voters,
8:32
Speaker 2: the lie and the buy I call it, but it
8:35
Speaker 2: would be a big mistake to make that everything. Now,
8:39
Speaker 2: it was something, but it was not everything. That's because
8:43
Speaker 2: of loss of this magnitude can't be put down to
8:46
Speaker 2: just one reason. You don't lose like this without it
8:50
Speaker 2: being a failure across multiple fronts. Now, that's not to
8:53
Speaker 2: say that the reasons won't be weighted differently, because they
8:57
Speaker 2: will be. Some things will have made more of any
9:00
Speaker 2: pack than others. But in the end, there's rarely a
9:03
Speaker 2: silver bullet for a win, and similarly rarely won for
9:07
Speaker 2: a loss. What we do know is that Peter Dutton
9:09
Speaker 2: was unpopular, deeply unpopular. Now that's been known for some time,
9:14
Speaker 2: years in fact, so it's on the Liberal Party's head
9:17
Speaker 2: that they didn't do more to tackle this. It's not
9:21
Speaker 2: like they haven't had unpopular leaders in the past. Howard
9:24
Speaker 2: and have It two key examples, but both of them
9:27
Speaker 2: won landslide elections, more seats to both than Labor has
9:31
Speaker 2: ever won in any election in history. So you can
9:36
Speaker 2: reframe perceptions, you can disrupt and then remake the narrative.
9:40
Speaker 2: You can do it. And yet they didn't do this
9:43
Speaker 2: for Dutton. When they tried, it was too late, and
9:47
Speaker 2: they squandered his remaining core equities of strength and predictability
9:52
Speaker 2: with policy backflips and a whole lot of fence sitting
9:54
Speaker 2: on issues where a clear line should have come quickly
9:58
Speaker 2: and simply. But as unpopular as Darton might have been,
10:03
Speaker 2: let's not now gloss over the fact that he had
10:06
Speaker 2: Labor on the ropes just a couple of months ago.
10:08
Speaker 2: If you look at this polling trend graph, no fall
10:13
Speaker 2: of the line that this was all Dutton's fault because
10:15
Speaker 2: he had Labor beaten only a couple of months ago,
10:20
Speaker 2: but then came the official campaign, and that's where those
10:23
Speaker 2: lines swap over dramatically and pull apart in Labour's favor.
10:28
Speaker 2: Now there's no easy way to say this. The Liberals
10:31
Speaker 2: ran a bad campaign. It was a shocker. And I
10:35
Speaker 2: say here the Liberals very deliberately because I want to
10:38
Speaker 2: largely exclude the Nationals for reasons I'll explain a little later.
10:42
Speaker 2: Now it hurts to say this because a lot of
10:44
Speaker 2: the people I know in the campaign team, in the
10:46
Speaker 2: Liberal Party and with the leader I've worked with closely
10:50
Speaker 2: in elections where we have won. Now, almost across the board,
10:55
Speaker 2: the Liberal Party campaign was found wanting poor ads, ran
10:59
Speaker 2: way too late, no real negative campaign to speak of,
11:02
Speaker 2: a failure to tackle the character hits against the leader,
11:06
Speaker 2: completely flat footed on Labour's lies around things such as medicare.
11:10
Speaker 2: Now they knew that would come at them. Previous experience
11:13
Speaker 2: told them medi Scare would come at them. Criticisms too,
11:18
Speaker 2: about the use of the polling company Freshwater and their
11:20
Speaker 2: lack of nuse. I had lines that the Polsters were
11:24
Speaker 2: briefing out regurgitated back to me recently by someone who
11:27
Speaker 2: appears on this network. I said they were completely fanciful
11:31
Speaker 2: the Freshwater lines but didn't make numerical sense. If you
11:34
Speaker 2: know how to read polling, well that's been proven right. Unfortunately,
11:38
Speaker 2: you can replace a polster, but only after the damage
11:41
Speaker 2: has been done. Another area of real damage was policy,
11:45
Speaker 2: or the lack of it. This was a Liberal Party
11:48
Speaker 2: campaign full of the sugarheit of announcements, but without the
11:51
Speaker 2: substantive policies that underpin them. Where were the documents, Where
11:56
Speaker 2: were the proper costings, Where were things properly socialized months
12:00
Speaker 2: and months earlier so that people had a chance to
12:03
Speaker 2: digest them, understand them, know how the policies would help them.
12:08
Speaker 2: And sure the campaign team, the staff as I mentioned before,
12:12
Speaker 2: or they were blame hereshore. But ultimately policy comes down
12:16
Speaker 2: to the work of the shadow ministry and if they
12:17
Speaker 2: don't do the work, if the MPs don't do the work,
12:22
Speaker 2: then you end up with the result we got on
12:24
Speaker 2: Saturday night. Getting policy out early and having it founded
12:28
Speaker 2: on your party's values deeply written in your DNA, well
12:32
Speaker 2: that is critical to winning voters over because you then
12:35
Speaker 2: build on your core equities with voters for the coalition. Obviously,
12:38
Speaker 2: that's economic management, it's national security. It's also how you
12:42
Speaker 2: deny your opponents stability to turn your policy announcements into
12:46
Speaker 2: a scare campaign, because believe me, if you announce things
12:50
Speaker 2: late and half baked and on the run that scare campaign,
12:54
Speaker 2: it almost rights itself, especially when Labor's got a team
12:57
Speaker 2: of media mates and a hold new industry trea of
13:00
Speaker 2: these online influences to push out that scare campaign, which
13:04
Speaker 2: then brings me to communications or lack of them in
13:08
Speaker 2: this case, lack of communication skill. The Coalition failed here too. Yes,
13:12
Speaker 2: Labour told lies. Yes the PM flashed his Medicare card
13:16
Speaker 2: every day to sell that lie, but the Liberals did
13:19
Speaker 2: very little to counter rap them. When they tried, it
13:23
Speaker 2: was too late. Because the Coalition matched almost all of
13:26
Speaker 2: Labour's spending, it was impossible for Labor to say that
13:30
Speaker 2: the Libs would, as an example, cut health directly. So
13:34
Speaker 2: instead Labor built a straw man to do that, and
13:37
Speaker 2: they used Dutton's nuclear power plan. The cost of his
13:40
Speaker 2: nuclear power plan, they said was six hundred billion. It
13:43
Speaker 2: was never six hundred billion dollars. That was completely made up.
13:47
Speaker 2: It came from a Labor linked lobby group with connections
13:50
Speaker 2: to Simon Holmes of Court. But that didn't matter. Labour
13:53
Speaker 2: used the six hundred billion dollar figure to make a
13:56
Speaker 2: connection in voters' minds that if Dutton's nuclear plan cost
14:00
Speaker 2: that much, then the money had to come from somewhere,
14:04
Speaker 2: hence that deadly line he cuts you pay. And yet
14:08
Speaker 2: until I raise that figure here about three and a
14:10
Speaker 2: bit weeks ago and wrote about it in The Australian,
14:13
Speaker 2: this whole six hundred billion dollar lie was never challenged
14:17
Speaker 2: by the Liberals. Now that's just one example. There are many.
14:22
Speaker 2: It's not unlike my fight over the secret agenda of
14:24
Speaker 2: the Ulus statement. That was the Voice. I mean, it
14:27
Speaker 2: was a hardcore, twenty six page document of demands. It
14:30
Speaker 2: wasn't a small one page invitation that the PM tried
14:34
Speaker 2: to claim. Now that too was nowhere until that I
14:37
Speaker 2: exposed it. You ran with it, you voted against it,
14:41
Speaker 2: and we turned the Voice campaign around. In the end,
14:44
Speaker 2: it comes down to this, and you've heard me say
14:46
Speaker 2: it time and time again. You will lose one hundred
14:50
Speaker 2: percent of the fights you are not in. You will
14:55
Speaker 2: lose one hundred percent of the fights you are not in.
15:00
Speaker 2: This is exactly what happened on Saturday night. The Liberals
15:02
Speaker 2: were not in the fight in any sense, not in
15:06
Speaker 2: the policy work, not in the negative campaigning, the rapid
15:09
Speaker 2: rebuttal of labor lies, not in the picture value day today,
15:13
Speaker 2: not in message simplicity, not in the way they put
15:16
Speaker 2: their key players like just Enterprise and Andrew Hasty in
15:19
Speaker 2: the freezer. Now why we'll never know. To be a
15:24
Speaker 2: first term government, you have to go hard, you have
15:27
Speaker 2: to go early, and you must keep the contest simple.
15:32
Speaker 2: When Abbott almost toppled Gillard in twenty ten after just
15:35
Speaker 2: eight months in the job, he didn't have three years
15:38
Speaker 2: that the coalition had. He did it by creating a
15:41
Speaker 2: contest with labor. He did not let labor frame the contest.
15:46
Speaker 2: He framed it. And as he fought every day, he
15:49
Speaker 2: fought as if his political life depended on it, because
15:51
Speaker 2: he knew it did, and knew that if he didn't
15:54
Speaker 2: take labor down, Turnbull was ready to come back at him.
15:58
Speaker 2: And even when Abbott eventually one government in a landslide,
16:03
Speaker 2: Turnbull undermined him anyway. And that's something that dozens of
16:07
Speaker 2: people have said to me over the weekend that the
16:09
Speaker 2: start of the Liberal Party slide into trouble started when
16:13
Speaker 2: we junked what we stood for and broke the hearts
16:16
Speaker 2: of so many of our base moving from Abbot to Turnbull.
16:20
Speaker 2: So where to now? The Liberals must have a review
16:24
Speaker 2: and it must do more than gathered dust on the
16:26
Speaker 2: shelf like the last one. They must regroup and start
16:30
Speaker 2: doing the work from day one. Not think that labor
16:34
Speaker 2: will be the ebb its way out of office. They
16:36
Speaker 2: must work out who they are, what they stand for,
16:40
Speaker 2: and who they represent now. The case in point here
16:43
Speaker 2: is the National Party. They have weathered almost all of
16:47
Speaker 2: the hits in recent years, where the Liberals have not.
16:50
Speaker 2: Voters know and understand what the National Party stands for. Yes,
16:55
Speaker 2: their demographics have stayed more stable than the Libs. But
16:58
Speaker 2: when you buy their box off the shelf, take it
17:01
Speaker 2: home and you open it, you get what you bought.
17:05
Speaker 2: Not so the Liberals who've been all over the shop
17:08
Speaker 2: since the carpet bag. A Turnbull up end of the party,
17:11
Speaker 2: broke the heart of the base and then was punted
17:13
Speaker 2: for his failures. To my mind, the best summation of
17:16
Speaker 2: what Liberal Party stands for is still that of Mensies
17:20
Speaker 2: and his plea that the Liberal Party must represent the
17:23
Speaker 2: forgotten middle class off Australia, not those of the boardrooms,
17:27
Speaker 2: not those with plenty of money in their pockets, but
17:30
Speaker 2: those in the everyday suburbs, running a small business or
17:33
Speaker 2: working hard to raise their families, that want government to
17:37
Speaker 2: be big enough to do all the things they can't
17:39
Speaker 2: do for themselves, but as small as possible, but believe
17:43
Speaker 2: in the individual over the state, that want to be
17:45
Speaker 2: able to keep as much as they can of what
17:47
Speaker 2: they earn, and are distrustful of government trying to tell
17:51
Speaker 2: them how to live their lives or curtail their freedom.
17:55
Speaker 2: The job of an opposition is not to be a
17:57
Speaker 2: weak echo of a bad government, as Tony Aba is
18:00
Speaker 2: to say. It's to be strong and decisive and a
18:05
Speaker 2: clear alternative now for Australia's sake. That is what we
18:11
Speaker 2: must hope for now. Lots to get into tonight. I
18:20
Speaker 2: have got a cracker jack show of analysts coming up.
18:22
Speaker 2: Let's go now though for the headlines. Sky News political
18:25
Speaker 2: reporter Riven.
18:26
Speaker 4: Spargo inside Parliament's House, the Prime Minister is turning his
18:31
Speaker 4: attention to the government's second term. Anthony Abernezi returned to
18:35
Speaker 4: work this morning as he prepares to choose his front bench.
18:38
Speaker 4: The factional makeup of the ministry could change with more
18:42
Speaker 4: labor MPs.
18:43
Speaker 5: The hard work will continue today. My government has been
18:46
Speaker 5: an orderly government. We have worked hard, We've had effective ministers.
18:52
Speaker 4: The Prime Minister claims passing legislation to cut student debt
18:55
Speaker 4: by twenty percent is his priority once Parliament returns. The
19:00
Speaker 4: Liberal Party is searching for a new leadership team as
19:03
Speaker 4: it attempts to build back from defeat.
19:05
Speaker 6: We need to our best people forward if we are
19:09
Speaker 6: to reclaim the center.
19:11
Speaker 4: Susan Lee has taken the reins of the Liberal Party
19:14
Speaker 4: ahead of the leadership contest. The Prime Minister is refusing
19:18
Speaker 4: to say if he will soon visit the United States.
19:21
Speaker 4: Donald Trump congratulated Anthony Albernesi during a phone call this
19:25
Speaker 4: morning discussing tariffs in the Orchis Agreement. The Prime Minister
19:29
Speaker 4: labeled the conversation warm and positive.
19:32
Speaker 5: We'll make appropriate announcements. My first international visit will be
19:37
Speaker 5: just like last time. My first bilateral was to Indonesia.
19:41
Speaker 4: Anthony Abernesi is set to attend the G seven leaders
19:44
Speaker 4: meeting in Canada next month.
19:48
Speaker 2: All right, boat counting is still underway. I want to
19:50
Speaker 2: give you an update now, So let's bring in our
19:51
Speaker 2: chief election analyst, Tom Connell. Tom I got to say,
19:54
Speaker 2: terrific effort on Saturday night. Not the result I was
19:57
Speaker 2: hoping for, but you were called it beautifully and kept
20:00
Speaker 2: us across all the detail. I want to get an
20:02
Speaker 2: update now if I can on the state of the House, please.
20:07
Speaker 7: Yeah.
20:07
Speaker 8: So at the moment, eighty six confirm for Labor there
20:10
Speaker 8: are fifteen slap for grabs.
20:11
Speaker 7: I think the big stories are from here. Look, there
20:13
Speaker 7: are quite a few opportunities for Labor to.
20:14
Speaker 8: Win a few and get up to ninety even that
20:17
Speaker 8: would probably be about their benchmark from here. But the
20:19
Speaker 8: question will be what can the coalition get up to
20:21
Speaker 8: if they're rebuilding, you know, what are you rebuilding from?
20:24
Speaker 8: And then as well, look at Climate two hundred and
20:26
Speaker 8: their four seats. There are two seriously in doubt for them.
20:29
Speaker 8: At least, there are three possibilities for them to win,
20:32
Speaker 8: but all really tight. And the Greens for now, for
20:35
Speaker 8: now are on zero. They're probably going to end up
20:37
Speaker 8: for one or two. There's nothing certain right down. That's
20:40
Speaker 8: why we haven't called. And if we look as well,
20:42
Speaker 8: I'll just give a quick look at some of the
20:43
Speaker 8: seats still up for grabs. You can see some of
20:45
Speaker 8: these very tight margins Bullwinkle, this new seat Labor notionally holds.
20:49
Speaker 8: It's zero point zero five percent up Goldstein as well, Longman,
20:53
Speaker 8: Bradfield and Couyong. So these are probably all battles we're
20:56
Speaker 8: relatively familiar with. Why we still have a lot of
20:58
Speaker 8: outstanding seats at this stage because these are the contests
21:01
Speaker 8: where not being being fought between an Independent and Labor
21:05
Speaker 8: label with a big swing against that there Bendigo is
21:07
Speaker 8: Labor and the Nationals.
21:09
Speaker 7: Menzies as well as something we're probably going to see.
21:12
Speaker 8: The Liberal Party lose to the Labor Party, and then
21:14
Speaker 8: again Freemantle versus Independent and Monash is a really messy
21:18
Speaker 8: contest with nobody with a particularly high vote. So there's
21:21
Speaker 8: still quite a number of seats undeclared at this stage
21:24
Speaker 8: because some of these contests are basically brand new ones.
21:27
Speaker 8: Peter are waiting for some of the three Canada preferred
21:30
Speaker 8: and two candidate referred counts to actually progress.
21:35
Speaker 2: Some I've watched it and looked closely at the AAC
21:38
Speaker 2: and obviously listened to you two as well. The seat
21:41
Speaker 2: of Melbourne Adam Band, Goldstein and Couyoon. They looked like
21:48
Speaker 2: they were staying with the incumbents, income postals, and more
21:53
Speaker 2: pre pole numbers. It's not looking like that though, Tom
21:56
Speaker 2: what canon tell us that those threets specifically.
22:00
Speaker 7: Really interritting contest.
22:01
Speaker 8: Let's go to all of them right now, going into
22:04
Speaker 8: Melbourne first of all, the seat of Melbourne itself. Now,
22:07
Speaker 8: don't worry about this fourteen point three percent margin.
22:10
Speaker 7: It's not real.
22:10
Speaker 8: Why because the count done so far on two candidate
22:13
Speaker 8: preferred is only four point eight percent and.
22:15
Speaker 7: It's postal ballots.
22:17
Speaker 8: We've reset things to just go actual numbers now because
22:20
Speaker 8: that's the way we usually are at this stage of
22:22
Speaker 8: the count. But this is just postal ballot where we
22:24
Speaker 8: are more interested in this primary vote. You can see
22:26
Speaker 8: the five point six percent margin for the Greens, a
22:29
Speaker 8: swing against Adam Bann, and a big swing towards the
22:31
Speaker 8: Labor Party on these numbers. With the preference flow're seeing
22:34
Speaker 8: so far, this is bad news for Adam Ban.
22:37
Speaker 7: It's going to be quite close.
22:39
Speaker 8: We need to see those some of how those preference
22:41
Speaker 8: distributions are going with you on the day vote. He's
22:43
Speaker 8: going to be heard a bit further by postal ballots
22:46
Speaker 8: out there.
22:46
Speaker 7: But Melbourne has.
22:47
Speaker 8: A lot of absent and declaration pre pole, which might
22:50
Speaker 8: bring it back.
22:50
Speaker 7: So best guess on this right now.
22:52
Speaker 8: Honestly, it's basically a coin toss because we just don't
22:55
Speaker 8: have enough further information.
22:56
Speaker 7: Where we are seeing the picture.
22:58
Speaker 8: Emerge a little bit more. So, let's go to the
23:00
Speaker 8: southeast here and the seat of Goldstein. You can see
23:03
Speaker 8: here we still have for the moment Zoe Daniel in
23:06
Speaker 8: lead by ninety five votes.
23:08
Speaker 7: That's all.
23:08
Speaker 8: So this is the two party preferred. You can see
23:11
Speaker 8: right now, she's in the lead by those ninety five votes.
23:13
Speaker 8: The issue right now for Zoey Daniel, and there was
23:16
Speaker 8: victory claimed should point out on Saturday night, the issue
23:19
Speaker 8: is the postal vote that's coming in right now. Nearly
23:22
Speaker 8: ten thousand votes are in. That's about half as our
23:25
Speaker 8: best guess. We know how many applications have been put
23:27
Speaker 8: out there. I think you'll get another ten maybe a
23:30
Speaker 8: bit more than that ten thousand postal votes. On the
23:32
Speaker 8: ten thousand so far, Tim Wilson has a lead in
23:35
Speaker 8: those votes of three thousand. In other words, that keeps happening,
23:39
Speaker 8: he ends up with the lead of three thousand. Zoe
23:41
Speaker 8: Daniel won't be able to make that back on the
23:43
Speaker 8: absent and other votes left over. So I just want
23:45
Speaker 8: to see one more batch going that strongly, and I'll
23:48
Speaker 8: say Zoe Daniel doesn't really have a path there. In Goldstein,
23:51
Speaker 8: cou Yong is a tighter situation in terms of the
23:54
Speaker 8: votes to come.
23:55
Speaker 7: Let's go in here and find cou Yong.
23:57
Speaker 8: So here we can see it's a similar story Peter,
24:00
Speaker 8: but closer margins. So the lead for Monique Ryan is bigger,
24:03
Speaker 8: much bigger than Zoe Daniels of a lead there of
24:05
Speaker 8: about fourteen hundred votes.
24:07
Speaker 7: Again, the enemy for her at the moment is this
24:10
Speaker 7: postal vote.
24:11
Speaker 8: So we go in here and we see the way
24:12
Speaker 8: the postal is flowing so far, and we can see
24:15
Speaker 8: the lead she has in the postal so far is
24:18
Speaker 8: about twenty four hundred. So remember that lead fourteen hundred.
24:22
Speaker 8: We think this is about half of the postal counted again,
24:25
Speaker 8: maybe even a little bit more. If the postals keep
24:27
Speaker 8: flowing at that rate and she gets those twenty four
24:30
Speaker 8: hundred again, she ends up with a lead of about
24:33
Speaker 8: a thousand. I think that would be too much for
24:35
Speaker 8: Monique Ryan. She'll get some back on those absence, but
24:37
Speaker 8: if the postal rate slows down a little.
24:39
Speaker 7: Bit, then it could just be too close to call.
24:41
Speaker 8: We could be talking about fifty votes between these two
24:44
Speaker 8: at the end, So we need to see that next batch.
24:46
Speaker 8: We'll see when it comes in, and also see how
24:48
Speaker 8: the absent votes are going. If they're not going towards
24:50
Speaker 8: Menique Ryan, she's in a lot of trouble.
24:54
Speaker 2: Thank you, Tom. We'll leave there. I'll catch up with
24:56
Speaker 2: you tomorrow night if I can about the Senate because
24:58
Speaker 2: that's getting very interesting as well. Well, let's bring you
25:00
Speaker 2: my panel now for their expert analysis. Sky News political
25:03
Speaker 2: contributor Chris Yulman and National Editor Australian Dennis Shanahan. Gentlemen,
25:07
Speaker 2: thank you Dennis. In your column today and the Olds,
25:10
Speaker 2: she said that Albanese is now arguably in the strongest
25:14
Speaker 2: position of any labor leader since Federation. I made some points.
25:18
Speaker 2: This one's an interesting one. His percentage of primary vote
25:21
Speaker 2: share visa vie where Bill Shorten was when he lost
25:25
Speaker 2: in twenty sixteen, is a point zero six percent better off,
25:29
Speaker 2: but is obviously one is one in a landslide. He's
25:33
Speaker 2: got all those seats. As Tom just said, there could
25:34
Speaker 2: get to ninety. What happens now for labor because he's
25:39
Speaker 2: got an enormous opportunity and very little cover. If he
25:43
Speaker 2: can't turn things around for how people feel about cost
25:46
Speaker 2: of living, or he has an economic misstep, he can't
25:50
Speaker 2: claim he hasn't got the wherewithal in the Parliament to
25:53
Speaker 2: do what he needs to do.
25:56
Speaker 6: Certainly, and this is a it is in this win
26:00
Speaker 6: for Anti Alberanosi. It is because of preferences. But that's
26:05
Speaker 6: the system we have, and that's the system we've always had,
26:08
Speaker 6: and so what we have is a historic victory for
26:13
Speaker 6: Anti Albernozi. He could be looking at two terms. I know,
26:19
Speaker 6: you know, you don't want to get ahead of yourself,
26:21
Speaker 6: but it is clearly a very big win for Labor. Now,
26:27
Speaker 6: of course in the House, this means that not only
26:30
Speaker 6: do they have an absolute majority in the House, but
26:34
Speaker 6: it takes out the Greens. It may be that the
26:38
Speaker 6: Greens are taken out completely, but also the issue of
26:42
Speaker 6: independence and no question of minority government. So in the
26:46
Speaker 6: House of Representatives, Antony Albernozi has complete control and as
26:52
Speaker 6: you say, he can introduce what he wants, he can
26:55
Speaker 6: get whatever he wants past, there's no issues on procedural matters.
27:00
Speaker 6: He is in control of the House of Representatives. He's
27:04
Speaker 6: still got an issue in the Senate. Now we've seen
27:08
Speaker 6: Adam Bant today, who may lose his leadership of the Greens,
27:13
Speaker 6: saying that the Greens are now the sole balance of
27:16
Speaker 6: power in the Senate, and he's saying that this will
27:21
Speaker 6: ensure the most progressive Senate we've seen, and he will
27:25
Speaker 6: demand deals from Labor on a range of things. I
27:30
Speaker 6: think this one thing that Anthony Albernez and Adam Bant
27:35
Speaker 6: and the new legal leader of the Liberal Party, whoever
27:39
Speaker 6: that is, should consider, and that is that the Greens
27:44
Speaker 6: are not the second largest single block in the Senate.
27:47
Speaker 6: The coalition is. And just like John Howard did in
27:52
Speaker 6: the early days of the Hawk and Keating government when
27:55
Speaker 6: they put forward useful, essential changes on microeconomic reform and
28:02
Speaker 6: economic reform, John Howard built his credibility on economic management
28:09
Speaker 6: from opposition and ensured that Labor got through that great
28:15
Speaker 6: economic reform. So I think there is an opportunity here
28:19
Speaker 6: for both the Prime Minister and the potential leader of
28:22
Speaker 6: the Liberal Party to actually block the Greens out and
28:27
Speaker 6: ensure that Australia gets decent middle of the ground reform.
28:34
Speaker 2: All right, let's just go to that point about Liberal leader,
28:36
Speaker 2: I could confirm now from Andrew Hasty's office that he
28:40
Speaker 2: will not be putting his hand up for the leadership.
28:42
Speaker 2: Chris Yellman. I made the point of my editorial there's
28:45
Speaker 2: rarely a silver bullet for a win. There's really a
28:47
Speaker 2: silver bullet reason for a loss. Where do Liberal Party go?
28:51
Speaker 7: Now, well, whoever's.
28:54
Speaker 3: Got this job has got the hardest job in politics. Again,
28:56
Speaker 3: we used to always say that about the leader of
28:58
Speaker 3: the opposition, and then the prime minister's job saying become
29:00
Speaker 3: much harder than the leader of the opposition. I think
29:02
Speaker 3: now we can certainly say that's whoever leads the Liberal
29:05
Speaker 3: Party next is in some ways on a hiding to nothing.
29:08
Speaker 3: And I saw all the figures that you put up,
29:10
Speaker 3: and I do appreciate all of that. But let's look
29:13
Speaker 3: at where the Liberal Party starts from. The Liberal Party
29:16
Speaker 3: starts at a primary vote of thirty percent, so that's
29:19
Speaker 3: the coalition. They have never been in that position before.
29:22
Speaker 3: Their starting point for the next election is about forty seats.
29:25
Speaker 3: They're thirty six seats away almost doubling that number in
29:29
Speaker 3: order to get back into government, and there'll be a
29:31
Speaker 3: lot of bruised and battered people, and they'll all have
29:34
Speaker 3: different ideas.
29:35
Speaker 2: About how this party should go.
29:36
Speaker 3: Should they be conservative liberal, should they be liberal conservative?
29:39
Speaker 3: All those policy fights lie ahead of the leader. So
29:42
Speaker 3: now it's not Andrew Hasty that it boils down to
29:44
Speaker 3: Susan Lee, Dan Ten or Angus Taylor. A lot of
29:47
Speaker 3: people are angry at Angus Taylor. They believe the reason
29:50
Speaker 3: that they didn't have an economic plan, which Peter Costello
29:52
Speaker 3: pointed to, was because of Angus Taylor.
29:55
Speaker 7: So if he gets the job, he gets it.
29:56
Speaker 3: Without any real authority and a difficult job at That's
30:00
Speaker 3: and Lee of course will think that she should be
30:02
Speaker 3: running the party. She might say that Julie Bishop didn't
30:04
Speaker 3: get her chance. It's time for a woman to run
30:07
Speaker 3: the Liberal Party. But whoever gets this job is in
30:10
Speaker 3: an extraordinarily difficult position.
30:12
Speaker 7: This party has to be remade, route and branch.
30:16
Speaker 3: And that's not just the federal party, it's all of
30:18
Speaker 3: the states as well. It's functionally dead in Western Australia,
30:21
Speaker 3: South Australia, Victoria, it's in administration in New South Wales.
30:25
Speaker 3: How do you start a comeback from there?
30:30
Speaker 2: That is the point I made on Saturday A night
30:32
Speaker 2: two Chris, I grow with you. I think the architecture
30:35
Speaker 2: of the Liberal Party is not as modern as it
30:37
Speaker 2: needs to be to fight a modern war against the left,
30:39
Speaker 2: because they're fighting an enemy that's not just or an
30:42
Speaker 2: opponent that's not just the Labor Party. It's multi factor
30:46
Speaker 2: and it's well resourced, as we can see there with
30:48
Speaker 2: the tills, and it also is very disciplined. And as
30:51
Speaker 2: preference flows in a preferential voting system, that is the
30:54
Speaker 2: only game in town. As you can see, the differential
30:57
Speaker 2: between Labor voting Liberal bloat was less than four one
31:00
Speaker 2: hundred thousand votes, but the difference in the Parliament is
31:03
Speaker 2: basically half the chamber and more.
31:07
Speaker 3: Yeah, and part of that too is that And look
31:09
Speaker 3: at the effect of the Teals and if you want
31:10
Speaker 3: to see them in a politically historical sense, one of
31:13
Speaker 3: the Liberals mentioned this to me, think of them as
31:15
Speaker 3: the DLP. It's not like the Greens to the Labor Party.
31:18
Speaker 3: Those preferences flow back what the Teals do. They're a
31:21
Speaker 3: political party that have been set up precisely to stop
31:24
Speaker 3: the Liberal Party from ever regaining power again, and they're
31:28
Speaker 3: doing that very effectively. So the number that was missing
31:31
Speaker 3: there before is there's another four million people, and those
31:34
Speaker 3: four million people are voting away from the Labor and
31:38
Speaker 3: Liberal parties. But there's one particular party and that is
31:40
Speaker 3: the Teals that has been specifically designed to weaponize keeping
31:45
Speaker 3: the Liberal Party out of power.
31:46
Speaker 7: That is a big problem.
31:50
Speaker 2: You are not wrong. Let's go just quickly to the government. Obviously,
31:54
Speaker 2: you know everyone's exhausted at the end of a campaign, Dennis.
31:57
Speaker 2: But I'll tell you what, when you win, you can
31:59
Speaker 2: find energy to get down to Canberra, to get back
32:01
Speaker 2: in the offices and start the work of government. We
32:04
Speaker 2: saw that today from the Prime Minister and his team.
32:06
Speaker 2: We know, of course on the labor side, he doesn't
32:09
Speaker 2: get to pick the personnel in his cabinet. That gets
32:11
Speaker 2: chosen by the factions he divies up the portfolios. Surely
32:15
Speaker 2: he's got to move somewhere like Bowa And I mean,
32:17
Speaker 2: where are you hearing things might move, Dennis?
32:21
Speaker 6: Oh well, look, I think what we have to remember
32:24
Speaker 6: is that the Prime Minister does have to the labor
32:27
Speaker 6: prime minister does have to take the candidates selected by
32:31
Speaker 6: the fashions. However, somebody like Bob Hawk and now Alberan
32:35
Speaker 6: as in the strength that they have they can actually
32:39
Speaker 6: call in the factional leaders and say, now, look, we
32:43
Speaker 6: don't want any silliness here, and there's a couple of
32:45
Speaker 6: people I'd like to see promoted, so that there's a
32:48
Speaker 6: reasonable conversation before that's picked. Now, the Prime Minister during
32:52
Speaker 6: the campaign has cemented in all of his senior people,
32:58
Speaker 6: Richard Miles's Deputy and Defense Minister, Penny Wong, Don Farrell,
33:06
Speaker 6: Jim Chalmers as a Treasurer and Katie Gallagher as Finance.
33:11
Speaker 6: So he's done all of that already. The peak of
33:14
Speaker 6: the labor leadership is in place. Now what they are
33:17
Speaker 6: going to have to do is adjust some of the numbers.
33:21
Speaker 6: First of all, I think Anthony Albanezi wants to see
33:25
Speaker 6: greater representation for Western Australia. State representation very important, so
33:31
Speaker 6: he wants to see more from Western Australia. On the
33:35
Speaker 6: selection of female candid there has to be another female
33:40
Speaker 6: ministerial member. That probably means that given that the Left
33:45
Speaker 6: is now in control not only on national executive at
33:49
Speaker 6: the conference and in the caucus now for the first time,
33:53
Speaker 6: there has to be more places for the Left, another
33:57
Speaker 6: place for a women woman. And so what we're actually
34:00
Speaker 6: looking at is the potential for some long standing labor
34:05
Speaker 6: right male minister to be asked to step aside in
34:09
Speaker 6: the interests of a factional state and gender balance. Now,
34:16
Speaker 6: I wouldn't want to suggest that that's going to be
34:17
Speaker 6: Chris Bowen. I see that you have, but I think
34:21
Speaker 6: this is a real challenge for the Prime Minister. He
34:24
Speaker 6: wants to bring in new people like Andrew Charlton, the
34:28
Speaker 6: Member for Paramatter, very good economist. He's trying to bring
34:33
Speaker 6: new blood in, which is understandable. I think at this
34:36
Speaker 6: stage it's too early to say he's going to dump anyone,
34:39
Speaker 6: even Tanya Plibosek.
34:44
Speaker 2: My point on bow is I think it needs to
34:45
Speaker 2: change portfolios absolutely. I think the factions will be the
34:48
Speaker 2: ones who make the call and whether he survives into
34:50
Speaker 2: the ministry got to leave their gents amount of time.
34:52
Speaker 2: I could talk to you all night, but I'll come
34:54
Speaker 2: back at this again, thank you. I will make the
34:57
Speaker 2: point there. The reason why you can't keep enlarging the
34:59
Speaker 2: ministry despite all those extra seats is the ministry is
35:02
Speaker 2: capped under an active parliament at thirty MPs only or
35:06
Speaker 2: like the break Costa Mars. Why are the posters get
35:08
Speaker 2: it so so wrong and we'll get back to the
35:10
Speaker 2: Liberal Party after the break. Welcome back. You had another
35:17
Speaker 2: election where many of the published polls were a long
35:19
Speaker 2: way off the final result and the Liberal Party wipe
35:23
Speaker 2: out across urban Australia. How on earth do they call
35:25
Speaker 2: this back? Expert? Polster Redbridge director Kosta Mars joins me, Now, well,
35:30
Speaker 2: you guys weren't so far off the ultimate decision, but
35:33
Speaker 2: plenty of other posters were way off the mark cause,
35:35
Speaker 2: particularly when it came to those final numbers on Saturday night.
35:38
Speaker 2: Why was this the case?
35:41
Speaker 9: I think it's really misreading that other vote and I
35:44
Speaker 9: think it get close to six million people went from
35:46
Speaker 9: the other major parties or thereabouts by the time everything
35:49
Speaker 9: is counted. And if you don't actually read that part
35:53
Speaker 9: of Australia correctly when you are surveying, you're going to
35:56
Speaker 9: misread the two party preferred.
36:00
Speaker 2: What about the story today that the liber Party Polster
36:02
Speaker 2: had predicated or put into their preference flows the underlying
36:06
Speaker 2: numbers coming out of the Voice referendum. I just thought
36:09
Speaker 2: that was crackers. But you're the professional. What did you think?
36:13
Speaker 9: Yeah, I wouldn't have used that to wait the numbers
36:15
Speaker 9: absolutely not the referendum is one thing. Voting for the
36:20
Speaker 9: next government of Australia's is a totally different matter and
36:24
Speaker 9: people have a totally different emotional response to it.
36:29
Speaker 2: So what happened in the end, you think that the
36:32
Speaker 2: biggest reason for these sorts of numbers we saw was
36:35
Speaker 2: that big soft vote sat there and sat there into
36:38
Speaker 2: the last minute and broke almost overwhelming overwhelmingly to Labor.
36:44
Speaker 7: Was that it.
36:45
Speaker 9: Yeah, So in our case eats Track, we did a
36:48
Speaker 9: bit of an elsis to work out who did the
36:50
Speaker 9: coalition lose over a period of eight weeks, and there
36:53
Speaker 9: are largely people in their forties and fifties who were
36:55
Speaker 9: renting and had a mortgage in the ottosoburbs and regions
36:59
Speaker 9: of this country. And then we did a bit of
37:02
Speaker 9: a further analysis and try to work out where they're
37:05
Speaker 9: preferencing and we found it pretty early on they'll go
37:07
Speaker 9: on to Labor. So that bleed was pretty horrific for
37:11
Speaker 9: the coalition. So that's I think that was actually was
37:14
Speaker 9: the death nail for the coalition in a lot of
37:17
Speaker 9: seats that hemorrhaging over a period of eight weeks and
37:20
Speaker 9: then the preference is going to Labor.
37:25
Speaker 2: I went through this at the top of the show Man.
37:26
Speaker 2: If you look at Labour's priory vote visit Vee, where
37:29
Speaker 2: they were, say, even when short and lost in twenty sixteen,
37:32
Speaker 2: it's about the same, Right, that's a dramatic deterioration, even
37:37
Speaker 2: if the seat count is obviously vastly improved. And then
37:40
Speaker 2: you've got the turnout. I mean, from World War One
37:44
Speaker 2: until the twenty twenty two election, we've never dropped below
37:47
Speaker 2: ninety percent of turnout. We look like we're at seventy
37:50
Speaker 2: seven percent or they're about this election, so growing disengagement
37:54
Speaker 2: from voters. I mean, these are deep issues, the structural
37:57
Speaker 2: issues with the two major parties. I think the only
38:00
Speaker 2: bright light out of the weekend was it looks like
38:03
Speaker 2: we might be past peak green if that's possible.
38:08
Speaker 9: Yeah, that's right. I mean, look, the major party boat
38:10
Speaker 9: combined is still obviously heading in the one direction that's
38:12
Speaker 9: called self and that other vote is now the king
38:18
Speaker 9: and queen maker of future parliaments, and whoever wins them
38:24
Speaker 9: over in future elections will be forming government. And that's
38:28
Speaker 9: I think, you know, not a civil bullet for another
38:31
Speaker 9: two major parties has got to seal a bullet for
38:33
Speaker 9: that it was lucky this time. Next time it could
38:36
Speaker 9: be a little bit more tricky.
38:39
Speaker 2: Christ Jelman makes a point, though, you know, Labor fighting
38:42
Speaker 2: the Greens at least had an assured preference flow that
38:46
Speaker 2: came back about eighty percent of the time. The creation
38:49
Speaker 2: of the Tears under the guise of being sort of
38:52
Speaker 2: just better healed and more environmentally friendly liberals, well that's
38:56
Speaker 2: a furfey. They're there to take votes the Liberals and
39:01
Speaker 2: they funnel them back to the left of politics. So
39:03
Speaker 2: their only purpose of being is to destroy the Liberal
39:06
Speaker 2: Party basically and ensure they ever form majority govern again.
39:10
Speaker 2: I mean, how do you tackle something like that?
39:12
Speaker 9: It's hard, right, I mean, it took the Labor Party,
39:15
Speaker 9: what is it, two decades to recover from the DOP split,
39:19
Speaker 9: And so Chris's reference about the dop's an excellent analogy
39:24
Speaker 9: because it's exactly what I think he's facing in the
39:26
Speaker 9: coalition right now. To regain these electorates will take a
39:30
Speaker 9: long time because there are some demographic mountains I need
39:32
Speaker 9: to climb. It's not impossible, and we can see that
39:35
Speaker 9: in Goldstead that Tim Wilson's about to get elected there.
39:38
Speaker 9: But it's a long, long road. Ahead and overcoming that
39:43
Speaker 9: and having to balance that. So, you know, you're a
39:45
Speaker 9: student of political history, you know how where those seats
39:48
Speaker 9: were lost for Labor when the DLP split, and they
39:51
Speaker 9: were particularly geographically located within particular constituencies, they really reliable
39:58
Speaker 9: and so this is the same problem now for the coalition.
40:03
Speaker 2: And of course what you might gain by bending over
40:06
Speaker 2: in relation to some of these inner city seats, you
40:08
Speaker 2: will lose out there in the peri urban out of suburbs.
40:12
Speaker 2: That's the challenge that wasn't there with the DLP. Thank
40:15
Speaker 2: you cous right after the break that review in twenty
40:18
Speaker 2: twenty two that said these were the things liberals need
40:19
Speaker 2: to fix. Well why was that? Why was that review ignored?
40:23
Speaker 2: And are the Libs just a regional Australia party now,
40:26
Speaker 2: I mean I don't buy that, but that's Labour's spin.
40:28
Speaker 2: They won't win back in the urban areas. And well
40:32
Speaker 2: a bit more on all of that. There's a bloke
40:34
Speaker 2: in Victoria who won it defied the swing. We're going
40:37
Speaker 2: to talk to him as to why that happened. All right,
40:44
Speaker 2: let's bring my panel our Skying News contributing at Gary
40:46
Speaker 2: Hargraves and One Nation Chief of Staff James Ashby gens.
40:50
Speaker 2: We know there will be a post mortem for the
40:52
Speaker 2: coalition and the all parties will certainly do a review,
40:55
Speaker 2: but the coalitions one has got to be no holes barred,
40:58
Speaker 2: or it's not worth the the effort. They had one
41:01
Speaker 2: Gary in twenty twenty two it said they had a
41:04
Speaker 2: lack of clarity and messaging, a lack of information about
41:07
Speaker 2: values at a weakness in engaging young voters. Paul campaign organization,
41:12
Speaker 2: disconnect with urban voters. I know my husband was one
41:15
Speaker 2: of the people who were doing the review. It's sat
41:18
Speaker 2: on a shelf. How do we make sure that they're
41:20
Speaker 2: not going to leave these reviews on the shelf and
41:22
Speaker 2: they actually do something about it.
41:25
Speaker 1: Oh well, I suspect any review that's done and now
41:28
Speaker 1: we'll probably come up with similar results. So no lessons
41:31
Speaker 1: learned at all in the last three years, Peter. Look
41:34
Speaker 1: in the end, the party needs transparency, it needs openness,
41:38
Speaker 1: it needs to have honesty, and its grassroots membership is
41:42
Speaker 1: just walking away because it's finding people who are perverting
41:46
Speaker 1: what the Liberal Party is about. And the Liberal Party
41:49
Speaker 1: has forgotten to stand for something, It's forgotten to be
41:51
Speaker 1: authentic and taking nothing away from Peter Dutton at all.
41:55
Speaker 1: He put energy in, but the trouble was there were
41:58
Speaker 1: people white adding him all the way through to the media.
42:00
Speaker 1: And this white ending is coming from people who don't
42:03
Speaker 1: want to see people like Peter Dutton succeed. They don't
42:05
Speaker 1: want to see somebody from Queensland succeed.
42:07
Speaker 7: If I dare say it like that.
42:08
Speaker 1: I mean they don't want to see somebody who's a
42:10
Speaker 1: conservative conceited succeed. So you know, Peter, there's a lot
42:15
Speaker 1: of other agendas at play and those people have got
42:18
Speaker 1: to be outed and routed. You've got to get rid
42:20
Speaker 1: of them because otherwise the party is in deep, deep peril.
42:25
Speaker 2: I will underscore that point because let's not forget at
42:27
Speaker 2: the end of last year that started this year Peter
42:30
Speaker 2: Dutton had labor on the ropes before any official campaign
42:33
Speaker 2: had started. It was only once the official campaign had
42:37
Speaker 2: started that they went backwards. James, I've got to ask
42:39
Speaker 2: how one nation ended up. You had high numbers of
42:43
Speaker 2: polling as support going in just in relation to Tazzy
42:47
Speaker 2: will Lee Hansen see off Jackie Lamby.
42:49
Speaker 10: Do you think, well, there's sixty percent of the way
42:53
Speaker 10: through the countdown here for the Senate, which still leaves
42:56
Speaker 10: another forty to go, but this could take up to
42:59
Speaker 10: four or five weeks.
43:00
Speaker 7: Peter. As you know, the postal votes.
43:02
Speaker 10: Need two weeks before they're officially closed off and then
43:06
Speaker 10: they'll start to count them as well. Strangely enough, in Tazzy,
43:09
Speaker 10: they are a different beasts down here. They like to
43:11
Speaker 10: vote below the line, primarily primarily because of their hair
43:15
Speaker 10: Clark system. They're used to voting below the line, so
43:18
Speaker 10: we have to accept that. Obviously, there's an algorithm that
43:21
Speaker 10: needs to be implemented because they scan all those Senate
43:24
Speaker 10: papers and then the algorithm in a couple of weeks time,
43:27
Speaker 10: when they press the button will determine who wins those seats.
43:30
Speaker 10: We're not far behind Jackie Lamby. It all comes down
43:32
Speaker 10: to preferences. But typically what's usually happened here in Tazzy
43:36
Speaker 10: the Liberal Party have had overflow, meaning they've had more
43:40
Speaker 10: than two quotas in their vote. This time they're below
43:44
Speaker 10: two quotas, so there won't be a preference flow from
43:47
Speaker 10: the Liberals towards one nation in Tazzy.
43:50
Speaker 7: So we'll see what happens.
43:51
Speaker 10: We'll just have to wait and see.
43:55
Speaker 2: We'll like declare I'm one of those widows too. Their
43:56
Speaker 2: votes are under the line. Anyway, let's go to the
44:00
Speaker 2: on Saturday night and where too.
44:01
Speaker 7: Now.
44:02
Speaker 2: I thought it was interesting. It was very industring.
44:05
Speaker 9: You know.
44:06
Speaker 2: I had a bit of a barnie on Saturday and
44:08
Speaker 2: night with Senator Murray.
44:09
Speaker 7: What who says? You know?
44:10
Speaker 2: The Liberal Party's got to stop fighting these culture wars.
44:13
Speaker 2: Let me read you a quote from Julia Gillard. This
44:15
Speaker 2: is Julia Gillard in two thousand and three from a
44:18
Speaker 2: speech she went as she gave to the City Institute.
44:21
Speaker 2: She said that labor must muscle up for the hard
44:24
Speaker 2: task of winning the culture war and creating a new
44:28
Speaker 2: vision for Australia. So if you want to talk about
44:30
Speaker 2: who started the culture wars, it was labor. There in
44:33
Speaker 2: black and white from Julia Gillard the voice. It was
44:36
Speaker 2: part of the Labour's culture war against our constitution. Three
44:40
Speaker 2: flags behind the PM. That's Labour's culture war against our country. Gary,
44:46
Speaker 2: I'll tell you what Labour should stop saying. We should
44:49
Speaker 2: stop fighting the culture wars. I think our problem was
44:51
Speaker 2: that Dutton. Yes he's a conservative, or was a conservative.
44:54
Speaker 2: His policy platform was a conservative. I don't think he
44:56
Speaker 2: took on enough of these culture wars, in my view,
45:00
Speaker 2: is that fair?
45:03
Speaker 1: Absolutely and correct. Peter, Look, the problem is if you
45:07
Speaker 1: want to be a small target, you might be able
45:09
Speaker 1: to get away with it and say a Brisbane City
45:10
Speaker 1: Council election and even a state government election, you might
45:13
Speaker 1: be able to be a small target. But the small
45:14
Speaker 1: target strategy always allows the other mob to define you.
45:18
Speaker 1: So the absence of the authenticity of who you are,
45:21
Speaker 1: what you believe in, where you want to take the
45:23
Speaker 1: country to is the problem. And that's what this election
45:27
Speaker 1: campaign became. Let's follow the idea, the sort of James
45:30
Speaker 1: McGraw idea of a small target strategy, say nothing, stand
45:34
Speaker 1: for nothing, just let the other mob, you know, make
45:37
Speaker 1: mistakes and you should win. That doesn't work at at
45:40
Speaker 1: a federal election level. People want vision, they want passion,
45:45
Speaker 1: they want ambition, and you'll get all those under forties
45:48
Speaker 1: following you if you actually outline the kind of Australia
45:52
Speaker 1: you want them to inherit. Right now, all they're going
45:55
Speaker 1: to inherit is them. We never really made that point.
45:58
Speaker 1: There was no none of that point was made. There
46:00
Speaker 1: was no proper context built around how power is destroying
46:04
Speaker 1: everyone's personal economy. We don't live in economy. We live
46:08
Speaker 1: in a community, and we've got to start talking the
46:11
Speaker 1: language that makes it very clear that every individual matters,
46:15
Speaker 1: that values matter, reward for effort matters, and in the
46:18
Speaker 1: absence of that, they're going to keep losing.
46:23
Speaker 2: Someone very shrewd and send me a message, and this
46:25
Speaker 2: person knows how to win elections, that we spent too
46:27
Speaker 2: much time telling people they had a cost of living
46:30
Speaker 2: in crisis, that they were hurting. Well, they know that
46:32
Speaker 2: we should have spent that time telling them it was
46:35
Speaker 2: labour's fault. And here's how we're going to fix it.
46:37
Speaker 2: And I think that person's spot on. I'll leave it there, gents,
46:39
Speaker 2: got to go. I'm going to speak to someone after
46:41
Speaker 2: the break. Is a coalition in Unicorn, really one of
46:45
Speaker 2: the only coalition MPs across the country to hold on
46:47
Speaker 2: to his seat. It's in an urban area. In fact,
46:50
Speaker 2: he increased his margin off labor. So how do you
46:54
Speaker 2: do it? After the break? Hey, I just want to
47:00
Speaker 2: apply it a caution to the turnout number I gave
47:02
Speaker 2: you seventy seven percent. It is seventy seven percent right now,
47:05
Speaker 2: but of course you'll know once postals and other things
47:08
Speaker 2: come dropping in that may well shift up, but I
47:11
Speaker 2: suspect it will be lower than the eighty nine point
47:15
Speaker 2: eight percent I think it was in twenty twenty two.
47:17
Speaker 2: All right, let's go now to someone casey MP Aaron Violi,
47:21
Speaker 2: who's one of a handful of Coalition survivors in Victoria.
47:24
Speaker 2: He's managed to hold on to his seat with fifty
47:26
Speaker 2: two percent of the vote compared to Labour's candidate Naomi Oakley.
47:30
Speaker 2: I'm forty seven. Indeed, it would appear that he's not
47:32
Speaker 2: only survived, but he's had a swing to him. Aaron
47:36
Speaker 2: Violi joins me. Now he's from Melbourne. It was a
47:39
Speaker 2: bit of a blood bath in Victoria, if I'm honest here, Aaron,
47:42
Speaker 2: we thought it would be better. It wasn't. Your set
47:45
Speaker 2: of case is a ultra marginal, so when you go
47:48
Speaker 2: down to the wire, but it looks like you've doubled
47:51
Speaker 2: your margin and as I said, picked up a swing.
47:55
Speaker 2: Has that surprised you?
47:58
Speaker 11: I mean when you see the results across Bitia and
48:00
Speaker 11: the country, very grateful and humbled to be re elected,
48:05
Speaker 11: and it looks like you know these numbers matter. Peter
48:08
Speaker 11: five points fifty two point nine two at the moment,
48:11
Speaker 11: give me the point nine two. I need to take
48:13
Speaker 11: the extra But you know, it was a tough night
48:16
Speaker 11: for the party, and the result locally is looking good
48:19
Speaker 11: at a third generation local, and I've worked really hard
48:22
Speaker 11: to get out and about talk to the community, understand
48:25
Speaker 11: their concerns in the last three years and put forward
48:28
Speaker 11: some really big local policies around communications, around roads, around
48:33
Speaker 11: health and with a medicareage and care clinic that my
48:35
Speaker 11: community needed. So I think that, combined with my local
48:38
Speaker 11: connections with my family, made a difference. And very fortunate
48:43
Speaker 11: and humbled to be reindorsed with an increased march and locally,
48:47
Speaker 11: but understand, and you know, it's been a tough forty
48:50
Speaker 11: eight hours. Lots of great friends, lots of colleagues, lots
48:52
Speaker 11: of great candidates here in Victoria and across the country
48:55
Speaker 11: that we worked really hard as hard as I did,
48:58
Speaker 11: and didn't get the same results. Bittersweet and tough time
49:01
Speaker 11: for the Liberal Party. And as you know, lots of
49:04
Speaker 11: reflection required and lots of reviews, but more importantly, lots
49:08
Speaker 11: of action that needs to come from those reviews. I
49:10
Speaker 11: caught you before and couldn't agree more. A review is nice,
49:15
Speaker 11: but actions from that is what is needed for us
49:17
Speaker 11: as a party moving forward.
49:21
Speaker 2: I think it's show that you worked hard. I think
49:23
Speaker 2: it's show that you did the work locally. I think
49:25
Speaker 2: it's showed that you had a long standing connection to
49:28
Speaker 2: the seat. I just don't think you're buy that. I
49:30
Speaker 2: bet you have to be of your seat, particularly for
49:34
Speaker 2: our mob. You know, do you have a view about
49:38
Speaker 2: the leadership going forward? I mean there's a lot of
49:40
Speaker 2: speculation tonight it'll be someone like Angus Taylor. Do you
49:44
Speaker 2: have a view? Do you think it should be Susan Lee?
49:45
Speaker 2: Do we need a new face? Perhaps?
49:49
Speaker 11: Yeah? No, I'm going to respectfully Peter.
49:52
Speaker 7: You know, I've got a lot of respect.
49:53
Speaker 11: For you, but I'm going to keep my position private.
49:55
Speaker 11: I think it's so important that we have the internal
49:57
Speaker 11: discussion and we respect the internal process. I've got a
50:01
Speaker 11: lot of respect for my colleagues, so I'm going to
50:02
Speaker 11: keep that to myself. But we just need to make
50:05
Speaker 11: sure we make the right decision to give hold this
50:07
Speaker 11: government to account. Because the cost of living challenges from
50:10
Speaker 11: Friday having disappeared today, so there's a.
50:12
Speaker 2: Lot of work we've got to do to be a
50:13
Speaker 2: credible opposition. Well, congratulations as I said, you're right to
50:19
Speaker 2: keep your power to drive. I'll leave it there. Congratulations
50:21
Speaker 2: again to you and all your volunteers. Aaron, thanks for
50:24
Speaker 2: joining me. All right, that's it for me. This is
50:26
Speaker 2: a post mortem, will continue for many nights, I suspect,
50:30
Speaker 2: I though you at home are herding as well as
50:32
Speaker 2: around the country. But we will here at least hold
50:34
Speaker 2: the government to account. That's it for me. Andrew bolts
50:37
Speaker 2: up next.