Latest / Crosstabs / 84-0

Transcript

84-0 · Crosstabs

0:08
SPEAKER_01: It just says starting.
0:09
SPEAKER_00: I don't know if that means it's, normally it does a count.
0:13
SPEAKER_01: Nope, just keeps going.
0:17
SPEAKER_03: That's awesome.
0:18
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, it did do the count, the countdown before.
0:21
SPEAKER_03: Coming to you live from Crosstabs.
0:25
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
0:28
SPEAKER_02: Hey buddy, how's it going?
0:31
SPEAKER_03: It's getting gloomier outside.
0:34
SPEAKER_03: I know fall's coming.
0:35
SPEAKER_03: You can just see it slowly dripping away, but that means the midterms are upon us.
0:41
SPEAKER_03: What do we got, 40 days?
0:43
SPEAKER_00: Something like that.
0:43
SPEAKER_00: I don't have to count.
0:45
SPEAKER_00: I am not involved in any campaigns, so I don't care.
0:48
SPEAKER_00: It's great.
0:51
SPEAKER_03: I feel like, I mean, if you look at polling, I'm not involved in any campaigns either.
0:57
SPEAKER_00: I think,
0:58
SPEAKER_00: and I think we'll,
0:59
SPEAKER_00: I should have AI drop like a slideshow we can use to walk through to go through each
1:05
SPEAKER_00: of these races.
1:06
SPEAKER_00: Maybe it could do that.
1:09
SPEAKER_02: Let's do that next week.
1:10
SPEAKER_03: I want to do that next week.
1:11
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
1:11
SPEAKER_03: When we'll do a slide and go through them.
1:13
SPEAKER_03: I think that that's a good idea.
1:14
SPEAKER_03: We should do that.
1:15
SPEAKER_03: And then we can put that on, uh,
1:18
SPEAKER_03: So next week we can do Senate and House.
1:22
SPEAKER_03: So we can split it into two episodes.
1:25
SPEAKER_00: Exactly.
1:26
SPEAKER_03: And kind of walk through them.
1:27
SPEAKER_03: So that might be kind of good.
1:28
SPEAKER_03: Maybe we should try to get one of the Senate candidates and one of the House candidates.
1:34
SPEAKER_00: Also, tell us about the local races that you guys care about.
1:38
SPEAKER_00: We're happy to try to cover poorly.
1:42
SPEAKER_00: And then you can tell us what we did wrong.
1:44
SPEAKER_00: But we want to hear...
1:45
SPEAKER_00: What are people watching on the local level?
1:49
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, like the backlash sheriff's race in Clackamas County, that's gone pretty wild.
1:54
SPEAKER_03: And it even seems like the Deschutes County sheriff's race has gone a little wild again.
1:59
SPEAKER_03: But that one seems like it's been the Wild West since, I don't know, 20 years?
2:03
SPEAKER_00: Deschutes County's been a mess for a long time on the sheriff's side of things.
2:07
SPEAKER_00: I don't know what's going on there.
2:08
SPEAKER_00: I don't want to be a part of it, but it exists.
2:10
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I don't get it.
2:12
SPEAKER_03: I don't do too many, except for your sheriff in Lynn County.
2:15
SPEAKER_03: I haven't done too many sheriff's race.
2:17
SPEAKER_03: I've done some one, like Les Stiles and Ben was the last good sheriff.
2:21
SPEAKER_03: Well, Larry Blanton was okay.
2:23
SPEAKER_03: 2010?
2:25
SPEAKER_00: Stiles was retired in 2010 or something?
2:27
SPEAKER_03: So Blanton probably left.
2:29
SPEAKER_03: I think Blanton only did one turn, so he was like 2014.
2:32
SPEAKER_03: So probably since then, it's been a mess for 12 years.
2:34
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, that's probably about right.
2:38
SPEAKER_03: But Linn County,
2:39
SPEAKER_03: you guys have, I mean, heck, I think like six of your sheriffs are still alive.
2:43
SPEAKER_03: It's crazy.
2:44
SPEAKER_03: There's a lot of them.
2:45
SPEAKER_00: So...
2:48
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
2:48
SPEAKER_00: And a lot of times people are two or three sheriffs behind.
2:53
SPEAKER_00: So you've got like Sheriff Riley, who was, I think he was two sheriffs ago.
2:59
SPEAKER_00: So you had Duncan before Duncan.
3:01
SPEAKER_00: I think it was Jim Yon, if I remember right.
3:03
SPEAKER_00: There are three or four, just over a term.
3:07
SPEAKER_00: So I think it was like five, six years.
3:09
SPEAKER_00: And then before that, you had Bruce Riley.
3:11
SPEAKER_00: And then before that, I'm totally blanking on his name.
3:15
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
3:16
SPEAKER_00: Gosh dang it.
3:17
SPEAKER_03: The guy that got all the nasty attention.
3:18
SPEAKER_03: Tim Muller.
3:18
SPEAKER_03: Oh my gosh.
3:19
SPEAKER_03: Muller, yeah.
3:20
SPEAKER_00: Muller.
3:20
SPEAKER_00: And a lot of people still think he is the sheriff.
3:25
SPEAKER_00: But that's just because people are slow on the uptake.
3:28
SPEAKER_00: We have a lot of stability in Linn County in terms of elected officials.
3:32
SPEAKER_00: They tend to...
3:34
SPEAKER_00: So a lot of stability.
3:59
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, not a lot of,
4:01
SPEAKER_03: you know,
4:01
SPEAKER_03: like primary losses,
4:02
SPEAKER_03: nothing like,
4:03
SPEAKER_03: you know,
4:04
SPEAKER_03: Josephine County or some of these counties
4:06
SPEAKER_03: where they're just constantly throwing people out of office and then flipping around
4:11
SPEAKER_03: and all the sort of things.
4:12
SPEAKER_03: But yeah, Link County and most counties, I would say by large, are fairly stable.
4:17
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
4:18
SPEAKER_03: On the county politics side of things.
4:20
SPEAKER_03: But yeah, you do get some outliers out there.
4:23
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, because even that other,
4:24
SPEAKER_03: there's that other sheriff down in,
4:25
SPEAKER_03: is it Curry County,
4:27
SPEAKER_02: the one that was like caught using the credit cards around?
4:30
SPEAKER_02: Like it's a, it seems like sheriffs are a little bit
4:34
SPEAKER_03: pun intended.
4:35
SPEAKER_03: They're in the crosshairs.
4:37
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, they- They, uh,
4:39
SPEAKER_00: not the Crosstabs,
4:40
SPEAKER_00: although I would guess that, um,
4:42
SPEAKER_00: when they do big scandals like take grant money and use it to buy stuff
4:46
SPEAKER_00: that they've put in their own personal name and leave at their house,
4:49
SPEAKER_00: uh, you know, maybe they're not picking up the sheriff's office.
4:52
SPEAKER_00: Maybe that they just run the sheriff's department out of the sheriff's house.
4:56
SPEAKER_00: I doubt that's the case, but, um,
4:58
SPEAKER_00: in situations like that,
4:59
SPEAKER_00: I would say the numbers in the Crosstabs, they're not going to be good.
5:02
SPEAKER_03: No, no, it doesn't take much for people to kind of turn on you
5:06
SPEAKER_03: when they think you're abusing the system on any level, right?
5:10
SPEAKER_03: And they'll give sheriffs a lot of latitude.
5:12
SPEAKER_03: And I think good sheriffs understand that they're given a lot of rope, you know?
5:18
SPEAKER_03: And then I think the bad sheriffs obviously just don't realize what they're doing
5:23
SPEAKER_03: or they just think nobody's paying attention,
5:25
SPEAKER_03: I think is the case of Clackamas County, right?
5:27
SPEAKER_03: Where they just kind of created this whole,
5:28
SPEAKER_03: I'm going to retire and you just slip right in there and You
5:32
SPEAKER_02: kind of get caught
5:32
SPEAKER_02: with your hand in the cookie jar.
5:34
SPEAKER_03: And I think guys like Ben West and stuff are not just – they're not afraid anymore
5:38
SPEAKER_03: to call that crap out.
5:39
SPEAKER_00: So they're – I'm sorry, are you talking about Junction City Manager Ben West
5:44
SPEAKER_00: or Clackamas
5:45
SPEAKER_02: County Commissioner?
5:47
SPEAKER_02: Technically County Commissioner.
5:48
SPEAKER_00: He gets involved.
5:49
SPEAKER_00: I was shocked.
5:50
SPEAKER_00: I didn't actually realize that that was allowable,
5:53
SPEAKER_00: but County Commission is a part-time job in Clackamas and he's balancing the role.
5:57
SPEAKER_00: So congratulations to him on that.
6:00
SPEAKER_00: Hopefully that's a successful situation for him.
6:03
SPEAKER_00: There is a commissioner.
6:05
SPEAKER_00: Who may also be looking for employment other places.
6:10
SPEAKER_00: No longer with Washington County.
6:11
SPEAKER_00: And that's the chair, Catherine Harrington.
6:15
SPEAKER_03: Nice transition.
6:17
SPEAKER_00: Thank you.
6:17
SPEAKER_00: Thank you.
6:18
SPEAKER_00: We were already talking about county stuff.
6:19
SPEAKER_00: So even though it's second on the list, we can.
6:21
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I think I had to put this on the list,
6:24
SPEAKER_03: Reagan, because we kind of enjoy these things anyway.
6:28
SPEAKER_03: Yes.
6:29
SPEAKER_00: So for a week, about a week ago, there was a meeting and they have their meeting.
6:35
SPEAKER_00: So I don't know what's up with Washington County.
6:37
SPEAKER_00: They don't have a cool chamber or maybe this particular meeting was a planning meeting.
6:41
SPEAKER_00: But anyway...
6:43
SPEAKER_00: Commissioner Harrington was clearly very annoyed in this meeting
6:47
SPEAKER_00: with Commissioner Nafisa Fai,
6:50
SPEAKER_00: and Fai is one of the candidates that's vying to replace Harrington.
6:53
SPEAKER_00: I don't think she's running again,
6:54
SPEAKER_00: because it's Pam Treese,
6:56
SPEAKER_00: who's on the commission also,
7:00
SPEAKER_00: And I saw the video in Harrington,
7:03
SPEAKER_00: Chair Harrington says,
7:04
SPEAKER_00: could you stop obscuring my view of such and such commissioner or so and so?
7:07
SPEAKER_00: Because they're seated around a table in a weird way.
7:10
SPEAKER_00: And then you have a camera of them, but the camera that's being projected on Zoom.
7:14
SPEAKER_00: And from that,
7:15
SPEAKER_00: you see Chair Harrington very clearly let Commissioner Nevisafi know
7:22
SPEAKER_00: that she's number one.
7:23
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
7:25
SPEAKER_00: With the single single finger sign.
7:29
SPEAKER_03: Yes, clearly, clearly number one.
7:32
SPEAKER_00: And that sparked a response.
7:35
SPEAKER_00: You want to talk about the response from that?
7:36
SPEAKER_00: It did.
7:37
SPEAKER_03: I thought, I mean, I thought the response was a little,
7:42
SPEAKER_03: I mean, I've been in some of these local government meetings and stuff like that.
7:46
SPEAKER_03: And when you're arguing over speed bumps in front of your house,
7:49
SPEAKER_03: right, they can get Pretty heated, right?
7:52
SPEAKER_03: Cemetery board to school board,
7:54
SPEAKER_03: you know, all the way through these commissioner races and stuff.
7:57
SPEAKER_03: And of course,
7:57
SPEAKER_03: then also when you're,
8:00
SPEAKER_03: it's very difficult to sit in the room with somebody who's your political enemy
8:05
SPEAKER_03: and have a discussion about governing without kind of emotions getting part of it,
8:09
SPEAKER_03: right?
8:09
SPEAKER_03: So it's pretty hard.
8:13
SPEAKER_03: Very few are actually good at it, to be honest with you.
8:17
SPEAKER_03: It's very difficult to But you
8:19
SPEAKER_02: crossed the line,
8:20
SPEAKER_03: right?
8:20
SPEAKER_03: I mean, you can't just... And why flip somebody off, right?
8:23
SPEAKER_03: I mean, that's one thing.
8:24
SPEAKER_03: I mean, why not just say, I just believe you're a fucking idiot?
8:27
SPEAKER_03: Like, I ought to have just said that.
8:28
SPEAKER_03: Like, it would have been...
8:29
SPEAKER_00: I don't think that's... That's not going to generate the same amount of controversy.
8:35
SPEAKER_02: No, I don't think so.
8:37
SPEAKER_02: And I think in...
8:40
SPEAKER_03: And also,
8:40
SPEAKER_03: you can kind of stand up for that and just say, well, I do believe she's an idiot.
8:43
SPEAKER_03: I just put an explorative in front of it.
8:47
SPEAKER_02: And I think you could probably argue it away,
8:49
SPEAKER_02: but the finger thing is it becomes,
8:52
SPEAKER_02: it's almost like you're, you're just, it's more aggressive, I think is
8:58
SPEAKER_03: the way.
8:58
SPEAKER_03: And I think that's where in this political charged environment.
9:02
SPEAKER_03: And then the reaction I thought was odd.
9:04
SPEAKER_03: I mean, you even had majority leader Bowman,
9:07
SPEAKER_03: you know,
9:08
SPEAKER_03: firing off a press release saying that she needs to resign,
9:11
SPEAKER_03: which I thought, Well,
9:13
SPEAKER_03: it's pretty crazy because I think what happens in Washington County,
9:16
SPEAKER_03: and I like your take on this because my thought is I think they almost do.
9:21
SPEAKER_03: Washington County has gotten so politically charged.
9:25
SPEAKER_03: If you don't believe you're on the right side of an issue,
9:29
SPEAKER_03: you almost have to say something when you're just like,
9:31
SPEAKER_03: that's really just not my space,
9:34
SPEAKER_03: which I think most of these guys would just be like,
9:37
SPEAKER_03: I don't have, it's the county commission.
9:39
SPEAKER_03: Why is the Senate Majority Leader of the Legislature, sorry,
9:42
SPEAKER_03: House Majority Leader of the Legislature weighing in on,
9:45
SPEAKER_03: but I bet he had pressure to.
9:47
SPEAKER_03: And so I think they're just so afraid of everything that happened with Salman and
9:52
SPEAKER_03: And then the guy that came in and tried to hit Solomon or whatever, that transpired.
9:57
SPEAKER_03: And then they called because they called them out then.
9:59
SPEAKER_03: And I feel like they had to call this out too.
10:04
SPEAKER_03: That's kind of my take.
10:06
SPEAKER_00: I agree with you.
10:07
SPEAKER_00: I think there's a couple of layers.
10:10
SPEAKER_00: And the first layer is the one that they're saying out loud,
10:13
SPEAKER_00: which is, hey, we expect our elected officials to be better than this.
10:18
SPEAKER_00: And I agree.
10:20
SPEAKER_00: It gives them the ability.
10:21
SPEAKER_00: I think it's not Republicans versus Democrats.
10:22
SPEAKER_00: It's Democrats versus Democrats.
10:48
SPEAKER_00: So that's the first piece, which is, yeah, so we kind of went to bat for the establishment.
10:53
SPEAKER_00: Now we get to go to bat for more of the progressives and it's showing balance
10:58
SPEAKER_00: and we're always going to do the right thing.
11:00
SPEAKER_00: I think the underlying question that I'm a little bit more interested
11:04
SPEAKER_00: in is what happens if it was not a BIPOC commissioner that got flipped off?
11:11
SPEAKER_00: If it's vice versa or if they're both white or if there's
11:15
SPEAKER_00: a male-female dynamic instead of female-female.
11:18
SPEAKER_00: There's a combination of things where I would be interested in if
11:22
SPEAKER_00: the reaction would be the same.
11:25
SPEAKER_00: And there's no way to know,
11:26
SPEAKER_00: because I think if you asked them,
11:27
SPEAKER_00: they would go, yeah, we would always call this out in any situation.
11:30
SPEAKER_00: It doesn't matter who it is.
11:33
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
11:57
SPEAKER_00: And it's fascinating to see this kind of stuff pop up.
12:00
SPEAKER_00: She ends up resigning, by the way.
12:03
SPEAKER_00: So what I think is interesting about that is she leaves office in four months.
12:07
SPEAKER_00: And I'm curious what drove her to resignation.
12:11
SPEAKER_00: I had heard at least that there was the potential that she was gonna lose her pay
12:18
SPEAKER_00: and everything else.
12:19
SPEAKER_00: I think they did the same thing with Fireside in Clackamas County.
12:23
SPEAKER_00: They took her pay and everything.
12:24
SPEAKER_00: And so once you take their pay, It's really kind of pointless to continue to hold your office.
12:30
SPEAKER_00: If you're allowed to keep your pay,
12:32
SPEAKER_00: if they're not allowed to take away your pay,
12:34
SPEAKER_00: which is true in the legislature,
12:39
SPEAKER_00: unless you expel the member,
12:40
SPEAKER_00: they're going to get their pay regardless of what they do.
12:44
SPEAKER_00: So and because because it's constitutionally required that it shall be issued.
12:49
SPEAKER_00: Right.
12:49
SPEAKER_00: And that's a thing they can't change, not without a constitutional amendment.
12:53
SPEAKER_00: And it's not true, at least in some of these counties, maybe all these counties.
12:56
SPEAKER_00: I haven't I haven't had a chance to look at it.
12:58
SPEAKER_00: So once you lose your pay,
13:00
SPEAKER_00: I think pretty good chance that there's really no point in sticking it out
13:03
SPEAKER_00: for four more months.
13:05
SPEAKER_03: I would have, I mean,
13:06
SPEAKER_03: if I was the chair, I'd have just like, listen, I shouldn't have flipped you off.
13:12
SPEAKER_03: And just said that, like,
13:13
SPEAKER_03: but I was heated at the point,
13:14
SPEAKER_03: I had a lot of things I wanted to say,
13:16
SPEAKER_03: and the only thing I could think of doing was raising my middle finger to you.
13:20
SPEAKER_03: And I know that's,
13:21
SPEAKER_03: but because there's nothing with the middle finger that's inherently racist
13:24
SPEAKER_03: or anything like bigotry or any of that sort of stuff, right?
13:27
SPEAKER_03: It doesn't have any sort of,
13:29
SPEAKER_03: at least as far as I know,
13:31
SPEAKER_03: somebody might correct me,
13:32
SPEAKER_03: but I think you could, she, she didn't exactly do it right either.
13:37
SPEAKER_03: She should have just said, I,
13:40
SPEAKER_03: you know,
13:40
SPEAKER_03: I just kind of,
13:40
SPEAKER_03: cause how many conversations have you had where you gotten heated,
13:43
SPEAKER_03: you know,
13:43
SPEAKER_03: and you just kind of say things you shouldn't have said, or you,
13:46
SPEAKER_03: you know,
13:46
SPEAKER_03: got a little, little over the top, you know, and, um, you know, with conversations.
13:51
SPEAKER_03: I mean, I know better than this to do this in the legislature cause I'll just get fired.
13:55
SPEAKER_03: I don't have the choice to resign.
13:58
SPEAKER_03: But, you know, if I'm doing a campaign or something like that, right?
14:02
SPEAKER_03: I mean, I don't work for anybody or something.
14:05
SPEAKER_03: So I've been in heated exchanges with, you know, even Democrats and stuff.
14:10
SPEAKER_03: And I've probably flipped up my share.
14:12
SPEAKER_03: Most of them are activists or whatever, right?
14:14
SPEAKER_03: Some of the people that get in your face.
14:16
SPEAKER_02: But if I'm elected,
14:18
SPEAKER_03: I think I would have just said, you know, I'm sorry.
14:20
SPEAKER_03: Now I'm older and a little bit more mature.
14:21
SPEAKER_03: But this lady, I think, is older than me.
14:23
SPEAKER_03: So maybe she should have been more mature, too.
14:26
SPEAKER_02: And then if you're leaving in four months, I'm walking myself into your spot now.
14:31
SPEAKER_02: If I'm leaving in four months, I'd be like, why do you care so much?
14:36
SPEAKER_02: You're leaving.
14:38
SPEAKER_02: Say your piece.
14:39
SPEAKER_02: There's a certain point when you're talking to somebody,
14:42
SPEAKER_02: they're literally not going to agree with you.
14:44
SPEAKER_00: And if she wants to maintain influence and get a high level job,
14:48
SPEAKER_00: now she's created a situation for her for people to not entertain her
14:53
SPEAKER_00: for those jobs.
14:54
SPEAKER_00: And I think I don't know if she needs money.
14:56
SPEAKER_00: I have no idea what her financial situation is.
14:58
SPEAKER_00: But typically people don't just quit.
15:00
SPEAKER_00: They they they leave maybe their elected office and then they go lobby
15:04
SPEAKER_00: for enormous money for 20 more years and then they quit.
15:07
SPEAKER_00: So now she's created probably a lot more space between this and the next job for her.
15:13
SPEAKER_00: It doesn't mean she can't get employed.
15:15
SPEAKER_00: Oregon's still a pretty small state.
15:17
SPEAKER_00: You can resign in disgrace and still get employed.
15:19
SPEAKER_00: But I think she's limited her options a little bit more.
15:22
SPEAKER_00: She's created more doubt and problems for herself.
15:25
SPEAKER_00: And you want to try to avoid that as much as you can.
15:28
SPEAKER_00: That's just general advice for that.
15:31
SPEAKER_00: That applies to everything, honestly.
15:32
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
15:33
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I think so.
15:34
SPEAKER_03: I think there's a certain thing where you have to realize
15:38
SPEAKER_03: that also I think there's some,
15:40
SPEAKER_03: and it's not legacy like,
15:42
SPEAKER_03: oh my God, I'm going to have a bridge named that for me legacy.
15:45
SPEAKER_03: It's kind of like when you,
15:46
SPEAKER_03: you're a couple of years out of office and you kind of go, hey,
15:49
SPEAKER_03: what do you, when you do talk to people and they say, oh, what have you been doing?
15:53
SPEAKER_03: You know, what, what do you do for a living?
15:55
SPEAKER_03: And you go, oh, I was accounting commissioner.
15:57
SPEAKER_03: It's like, this is all they're going to think of.
16:02
SPEAKER_03: You know, you're the old bag that got thrown,
16:05
SPEAKER_02: that quit because you...
16:07
SPEAKER_02: You flip somebody off.
16:08
SPEAKER_02: Plus, who really flips people off unless you're in your car anymore?
16:11
SPEAKER_03: I kind of feel like that's such an old school thing now.
16:14
SPEAKER_03: It's the only thing you could do in a car when you pass somebody after they're being
16:19
SPEAKER_03: a crappy driver is flip them off.
16:22
SPEAKER_02: But outside of that,
16:23
SPEAKER_02: I can't think of the last time I've actually maybe flipped somebody off
16:26
SPEAKER_02: in their face.
16:27
SPEAKER_00: I think it's generational too.
16:30
SPEAKER_00: I think some of the younger generation is interested in that particular form of communication.
16:35
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
16:36
SPEAKER_00: They do other stuff.
16:37
SPEAKER_00: But yes, and I think it's just fascinating to see.
16:42
SPEAKER_00: And it'll be interesting to see.
16:43
SPEAKER_00: I'm assuming the commission with the election coming up,
16:46
SPEAKER_00: there's no reason to appoint anybody to the seat.
16:48
SPEAKER_00: You just wait for the results.
16:49
SPEAKER_00: And if it's clear, appoint them in a couple months early, right?
16:53
SPEAKER_00: So they're going to move on with four out of their five.
16:56
SPEAKER_00: They still have enough to govern with, right?
16:58
SPEAKER_00: I don't know if it impacts policy much, but we'll see.
17:02
SPEAKER_02: Look, they're saving the county four months of her pay.
17:06
SPEAKER_00: There you go.
17:07
SPEAKER_03: There you go.
17:08
SPEAKER_03: Three months of her pay.
17:09
SPEAKER_03: Three months of her pay.
17:09
SPEAKER_03: But she did wait until she gets payday next Friday.
17:12
SPEAKER_03: That's for sure.
17:13
SPEAKER_00: She can add that to her resume.
17:15
SPEAKER_00: Save taxpayer money on my own salary.
17:17
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, right.
17:20
SPEAKER_00: Goodness.
17:21
SPEAKER_03: Interesting.
17:21
SPEAKER_03: Well, Washington County is clearly taking a run at Multnomah County as being
17:25
SPEAKER_03: the craziest county in the state.
17:27
SPEAKER_03: And Josephine's up there, too.
17:28
SPEAKER_03: We should have like a top five of craziest counties in the state.
17:32
SPEAKER_00: We should.
17:33
SPEAKER_00: And I still think Josephine's number one,
17:35
SPEAKER_00: but there are others that want to attend and leave it up there.
17:40
SPEAKER_03: We'll save that one for a later one.
17:41
SPEAKER_03: We'll save that one for a later date.
17:43
SPEAKER_03: We'll see what happens with elections.
17:44
SPEAKER_03: We'll do that.
17:45
SPEAKER_03: Yep.
17:46
SPEAKER_03: I really wanted to touch on this.
17:48
SPEAKER_03: We'll go back to bullet point one because,
17:50
SPEAKER_03: you know,
17:51
SPEAKER_03: we have to talk about when you get a victory sometimes in the courts in Oregon,
17:56
SPEAKER_03: you really need to talk about it because it really doesn't happen very often.
18:02
SPEAKER_03: So when we get a victory, we have to really tout it.
18:05
SPEAKER_03: So we've been pushing,
18:07
SPEAKER_03: you know,
18:07
SPEAKER_03: prevailing wage and You know,
18:10
SPEAKER_03: restrictions that's already in statute,
18:12
SPEAKER_03: by the way, that prevailing wage is required on public projects.
18:18
SPEAKER_03: And you're typing, Reagan.
18:19
SPEAKER_03: I can hear you typing.
18:20
SPEAKER_03: I know.
18:21
SPEAKER_03: It's because I'm pulling something up.
18:22
SPEAKER_03: I'm getting the receipts.
18:23
SPEAKER_00: Sorry about that.
18:24
SPEAKER_03: Oh, yeah.
18:24
SPEAKER_03: I get the receipts.
18:26
SPEAKER_03: But in Oregon, like,
18:28
SPEAKER_03: you know,
18:28
SPEAKER_03: if you're a public project that has money, you have to pay prevailing wage.
18:31
SPEAKER_03: And then back in the day in the grand bargain,
18:34
SPEAKER_03: they put affordable housing complexes as one of the things that
18:39
SPEAKER_03: Because you're trying to build affordable housing.
18:42
SPEAKER_03: You shouldn't have to pay prevailing wage because our goal is within this narrow scope of work.
18:48
SPEAKER_03: We're trying to do it as cheaply as possible to build the maximum amount of units.
18:53
SPEAKER_03: So for the last,
18:54
SPEAKER_03: I don't know, I mean, well,
18:55
SPEAKER_03: we've been battling this one forever,
18:56
SPEAKER_03: but I think for at least the last four or five years,
19:00
SPEAKER_03: Senator Anderson has really taken up this baton and really pushed on,
19:05
SPEAKER_03: because we've been spending a ton of money on affordable housing projects,
19:09
SPEAKER_03: and they will increase the cost anywhere from 15% to 40%.
19:15
SPEAKER_03: Depending on what you're doing, right?
19:16
SPEAKER_03: Depending on the infrastructure.
19:17
SPEAKER_03: And there's been,
19:18
SPEAKER_03: and so the bully director,
19:22
SPEAKER_03: commissioner who was elected by the people,
19:25
SPEAKER_03: they make the determination if somebody goes in and they say, hey,
19:28
SPEAKER_03: I want to do an affordable housing project and I want to get my exemption
19:33
SPEAKER_03: so I don't have to pay prevailing wage on this project.
19:35
SPEAKER_03: I'm getting my numbers and I'm getting my financing, blah, blah, blah.
19:38
SPEAKER_03: So you put it in early.
19:40
SPEAKER_03: And so one of those things that is previous use.
19:45
SPEAKER_03: And in the previous use,
19:49
SPEAKER_03: meaning like if a building,
19:51
SPEAKER_03: and this has been a big thing with housing authorities and stuff around
19:54
SPEAKER_03: the state is they've found old buildings,
19:58
SPEAKER_03: old churches in this case that we're going to talk about,
20:01
SPEAKER_03: or the one in Astoria, which was an old building.
20:05
SPEAKER_03: A retail store at one point.
20:07
SPEAKER_03: It was a commercial building.
20:08
SPEAKER_03: It was like a hotel at one point.
20:09
SPEAKER_03: So they were converting it into affordable housing.
20:13
SPEAKER_03: And in this case,
20:14
SPEAKER_03: the one that went to the courts in Salem,
20:17
SPEAKER_03: there was an old church and it's right near downtown.
20:19
SPEAKER_03: It was just an old church.
20:21
SPEAKER_03: And I've been to this.
20:22
SPEAKER_03: I've toured it.
20:23
SPEAKER_03: And we put in a bill to say, hey, like,
20:26
SPEAKER_03: it seems kind of silly that a church is technically a commercial building,
20:32
SPEAKER_03: a commercial use.
20:32
SPEAKER_03: Well, they converted this church into 18 veteran units, like for veteran homeless units.
20:39
SPEAKER_03: And so Boley basically said, nope, screw you, you're paying.
20:43
SPEAKER_03: So this ended up Koskin,
20:46
SPEAKER_03: Salem Housing Authority and Dev Northwest and these people that did it,
20:51
SPEAKER_03: $50,000 more per unit, Reagan.
20:54
SPEAKER_02: And so they still went ahead with making the project happen.
20:58
SPEAKER_02: It took an extra two years to get it done.
21:01
SPEAKER_02: But the group said, you know what, we're going to sue because we think this is crap, right?
21:06
SPEAKER_03: So anyway,
21:07
SPEAKER_03: so they end up suing and this takes a while to work itself through the courts,
21:12
SPEAKER_03: but they kept their nose on the grindstone and lo and behold, they won.
21:19
SPEAKER_02: They won the case and the appellate court said, yeah,
21:26
SPEAKER_03: the intent of the legislature back when they did this law was to allow
21:32
SPEAKER_03: for conversions to have And especially in a case like this.
21:37
SPEAKER_03: So that was, I'm kind of boilerplating it.
21:39
SPEAKER_03: We post a link that will land a week.
21:42
SPEAKER_03: And Nigel from the Oregon Journalism Project,
21:45
SPEAKER_03: I mean, he has been on this story with this prevailing wage stuff from the get-go.
21:50
SPEAKER_03: So, you know, congrats to him.
21:53
SPEAKER_03: So now, so basically one that,
21:55
SPEAKER_03: which basically set the precedent that,
21:58
SPEAKER_03: Now, previous use determinations are pretty much going to be null and void.
22:03
SPEAKER_03: So, or some or all,
22:05
SPEAKER_03: we're not really sure, but we,
22:06
SPEAKER_03: you know,
22:06
SPEAKER_03: we had a bill in the short session that we got a hearing
22:09
SPEAKER_03: where labor unions showed up and they,
22:11
SPEAKER_03: you know,
22:12
SPEAKER_03: pounded their fist and did all,
22:14
SPEAKER_03: pounded their chest and even threatened the sitting chair of the committee at
22:19
SPEAKER_03: the time that don't ever bring this bill up again.
22:23
SPEAKER_03: And that was just a short session.
22:25
SPEAKER_03: So this is a great win for just housing advocates,
22:29
SPEAKER_02: people out there that are just...
22:31
SPEAKER_02: And also economic developers that are trying to take a dilapidated area
22:35
SPEAKER_02: and convert it into something.
22:38
SPEAKER_02: You know,
22:38
SPEAKER_02: cause that's kind of where you can use some government
22:41
SPEAKER_03: money to reconvert buildings
22:43
SPEAKER_03: and old buildings and old spaces.
22:44
SPEAKER_03: But the only thing now is we, so we have a bill that's ready to go already for the next session.
22:50
SPEAKER_03: And this is going to give us the firepower that we need to pass it because really
22:54
SPEAKER_03: the real reality is,
22:55
SPEAKER_03: is what they never define the term construction,
23:00
SPEAKER_03: which is like how far down do you go with construction?
23:06
SPEAKER_03: So is that, Is that all the way down to the foundation?
23:11
SPEAKER_03: Is that bare land?
23:13
SPEAKER_03: So it really gives me things that I think we need to figure out when it comes
23:20
SPEAKER_03: to these sort of projects and prevailing wage.
23:24
SPEAKER_03: So I thought it was a good win.
23:25
SPEAKER_03: I was glad they did it.
23:26
SPEAKER_03: We'll see if Bully actually appeals to the Supreme Court.
23:32
SPEAKER_03: And I just hope that Christina Stevenson lets it go,
23:36
SPEAKER_03: the bully director, commissioner, whatever she's called.
23:41
SPEAKER_03: She is clearly in the pockets of big labor.
23:45
SPEAKER_03: They're the only ones that give her money.
23:46
SPEAKER_03: They're the only ones that care.
23:49
SPEAKER_03: It doesn't get really more corrupt than the bully commissioner in the whole scheme of things.
23:56
SPEAKER_03: Uh, which is just kind of sad in this case of affordable housing.
24:00
SPEAKER_03: Like it just doesn't,
24:01
SPEAKER_03: and there's other,
24:01
SPEAKER_03: we have other projects with,
24:03
SPEAKER_03: and you go on Willamette Week and you can just follow Nigel's different stories
24:06
SPEAKER_03: that he has on his prevailing wage exemptions that have been pretty crazy.
24:11
SPEAKER_03: So, uh, anyways, good, good win for us.
24:15
SPEAKER_03: Uh, good win for,
24:17
SPEAKER_03: you know,
24:17
SPEAKER_03: Dev Northwest and those guys in the Salem Housing Authority for just,
24:20
SPEAKER_03: you know,
24:21
SPEAKER_03: sticking on the grindstone and,
24:23
SPEAKER_03: I think at the end of the day,
24:25
SPEAKER_03: we need more units of housing,
24:27
SPEAKER_03: and why does the labor unions need to get in the middle of all this?
24:31
SPEAKER_03: It's just one small, small sliver of prevailing wage contracts that go out the door.
24:38
SPEAKER_03: Correct.
24:39
SPEAKER_03: They're so afraid of any cracks.
24:42
SPEAKER_00: And I would say maybe,
24:44
SPEAKER_00: you know,
24:44
SPEAKER_00: the generous version of this,
24:45
SPEAKER_00: of course, is that for the building trades, they might look at this like the kicker.
24:50
SPEAKER_00: It's like, yeah, we're not going to give you a dollar of our kicker.
24:53
SPEAKER_00: We're not going to give you a dollar prevailing wage.
24:55
SPEAKER_00: We're not going to give you a single,
24:56
SPEAKER_00: we're not going to I don't want to let you exempt a prevailing wage on anything,
25:02
SPEAKER_00: anywhere, at any time, which I get.
25:04
SPEAKER_00: I understand that that's their position.
25:06
SPEAKER_00: I think that that is a short-term gain, massive long-term loss position, though.
25:12
SPEAKER_00: And I wanted to highlight So in the article,
25:16
SPEAKER_00: the current article, I'm putting it online right now.
25:20
SPEAKER_00: Hopefully it's visible.
25:21
SPEAKER_00: This is what was announced September 18th with that decision.
25:25
SPEAKER_00: Go check this out.
25:25
SPEAKER_00: It'll be in the show notes.
25:27
SPEAKER_00: And then also, let's wind our way back to April of 2025.
25:34
SPEAKER_00: I'm saying we, because both you and I work for these two legislators.
25:57
SPEAKER_00: Potentially reducing the number of units built,
25:59
SPEAKER_00: delaying project timelines, or shutting down construction entirely.
26:01
SPEAKER_00: That was essentially the impact of prevailing stuff that the legislature has
26:07
SPEAKER_00: in statute that says you don't have to prevail this.
26:11
SPEAKER_00: The bully commissioner wrote that determinations
26:13
SPEAKER_00: on prevailing wage are not discretionary,
26:17
SPEAKER_00: saying she claims she did not have the ability to exempt.
26:21
SPEAKER_00: Bully has applied and will continue to apply the laws as they are written.
26:24
SPEAKER_00: Well, the Court of Appeals says you are not applying them.
26:27
SPEAKER_00: The way they were written and that you were not correctly applying the law.
26:33
SPEAKER_00: And so Stevenson went and said,
26:36
SPEAKER_00: allocation of scarce taxpayer dollars,
26:38
SPEAKER_00: this is back still in 2025, is one of the legislature's most consequential roles.
26:42
SPEAKER_00: I welcome the opportunity to engage in dialogue about how
26:45
SPEAKER_00: the legislature might consider these important questions.
26:47
SPEAKER_00: She wanted to engage in a dialogue then.
26:49
SPEAKER_00: In this current article from this last week, zero comment from Bolli.
26:57
SPEAKER_00: No.
26:58
SPEAKER_00: Zero comment from the commissioner, and they haven't said even if they are going to appeal.
27:06
SPEAKER_00: So my guess is they're going to get some advice
27:07
SPEAKER_00: that they could get embarrassed again at the Supreme Court, or they can stop.
27:12
SPEAKER_00: And I'm guessing they're going to quietly drop this, would be my guess.
27:16
SPEAKER_00: So pretty big change in tone here between 2025 and today.
27:18
SPEAKER_00: And I don't...
27:26
SPEAKER_00: And I would say that I hate to say I told you so,
27:29
SPEAKER_00: but I actually love saying I told you so here because we literally told her so.
27:33
SPEAKER_00: We literally told her how to apply the law.
27:35
SPEAKER_00: By the way,
27:35
SPEAKER_00: I want to give a ton of credit to LC who examined the law and was like,
27:39
SPEAKER_00: yeah, you guys, because I wrote this to LC first.
27:41
SPEAKER_00: I wasn't just going to go out there and play lawyer.
27:43
SPEAKER_00: I checked with our lawyers to see if we were correct.
27:46
SPEAKER_00: And they're like, yeah.
27:47
SPEAKER_00: We think there might be a bit of a disconnect between how Bully is applying the law
27:51
SPEAKER_00: and how the law was written and with the intent.
27:53
SPEAKER_00: And the court agreed,
27:55
SPEAKER_00: probably because the legislative record showed what the intent of the law was
28:00
SPEAKER_00: when it was written,
28:01
SPEAKER_00: because that's typically what they go back to is legislative intent.
28:04
SPEAKER_00: Either through committee or floor speeches or what have you, right?
28:07
SPEAKER_00: Whatever existed at that time.
28:08
SPEAKER_00: So this is a win.
28:11
SPEAKER_00: I think this is a win for affordability.
28:13
SPEAKER_00: This is a win for, which I hate saying, by the way, we need it.
28:15
SPEAKER_00: This is a win for lowering costs for affordable housing a smidgen.
28:22
SPEAKER_00: And we need to do many, many smidgens more to actually make it affordable.
28:27
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, because ultimately what it did is it just reduces the number of units you can do, right?
28:31
SPEAKER_03: So in this case,
28:32
SPEAKER_03: I think they lost two units,
28:35
SPEAKER_03: you know,
28:35
SPEAKER_03: so they had to reduce the number of units because they only have so much money.
28:38
SPEAKER_03: And that's the whole point, right?
28:40
SPEAKER_02: The intent is that lower-cost housing—maybe we have to call it that,
28:44
SPEAKER_02: lower-cost housing—
28:47
SPEAKER_03: Because it's really none of it's affordable.
28:48
SPEAKER_03: I mean, a $2,000 one bedroom apartment is not affordable.
28:51
SPEAKER_03: So I don't know who makes that determination.
28:54
SPEAKER_03: But lower cost housing should be as how do we build this for as lowest cost as possible, right?
29:01
SPEAKER_03: So, yeah.
29:02
SPEAKER_03: Anyways, it was something worth touching on.
29:04
SPEAKER_03: It's going to be something to watch during session because I think.
29:09
SPEAKER_03: Which is kind of funny because I fight big labor on this one.
29:12
SPEAKER_03: Like I'm not on their side on this on this affordable housing carve out because I'm
29:16
SPEAKER_03: a pro housing guy.
29:18
SPEAKER_03: But yet then I'm on their side when it comes to data centers and making sure
29:22
SPEAKER_03: that they have prevailing wage for data centers and all those sort of things.
29:26
SPEAKER_03: And, and they're big pro data center groups too.
29:30
SPEAKER_03: So this is,
29:31
SPEAKER_03: it's kind of funny when you're,
29:32
SPEAKER_03: you know,
29:33
SPEAKER_03: with the labor groups,
29:33
SPEAKER_03: like on some level, I'm going to fight the iron workers on another level.
29:37
SPEAKER_03: You're going to be there on the same team.
29:39
SPEAKER_03: Right.
29:40
SPEAKER_03: So, uh, it,
29:41
SPEAKER_03: it's just one of those things that I thought is worth calling out and thanks Nigel
29:45
SPEAKER_03: for staying on top of it.
29:46
SPEAKER_03: And I emailed him today and told him, I said, well, let's,
29:49
SPEAKER_03: before we respond to it or what,
29:51
SPEAKER_03: what are,
29:52
SPEAKER_03: what we're going to have to do in the legislature is,
29:55
SPEAKER_03: Let's see if Bully actually appeals this thing and tries to take it to
29:58
SPEAKER_03: the Supreme Court.
30:01
SPEAKER_03: So we'll wait until I think it's the 21st or the 20th or so of October they have
30:07
SPEAKER_03: to either appeal it or that becomes the law of the land.
30:11
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
30:13
SPEAKER_00: Yep.
30:14
SPEAKER_00: And I think that that point you made about where you're at on prevailing wage
30:19
SPEAKER_00: with labor versus data centers is one of the reasons why when you engage
30:24
SPEAKER_00: in this process,
30:25
SPEAKER_00: the legislative process, the political process, got to treat everybody better.
30:30
SPEAKER_00: Because your opponent in the morning is going to be your ally in the afternoon.
30:33
SPEAKER_00: And so if you just got done,
30:37
SPEAKER_00: you know,
30:37
SPEAKER_00: curse them out,
30:39
SPEAKER_00: ad mouth them all over town,
30:41
SPEAKER_00: and then you go to a meeting in the afternoon, you're like, ah, I need their help.
30:44
SPEAKER_00: And now we have a really bad relationship.
30:49
SPEAKER_00: That's going to be a negative impact for getting stuff done.
30:52
SPEAKER_00: And so that's why it's important.
30:53
SPEAKER_00: And I think that's the highlight.
30:55
SPEAKER_00: That's the whole point about What was what was trying to be brought up
30:59
SPEAKER_00: with Harrington is this like when you don't engage in a constructive way,
31:04
SPEAKER_00: this is what happens is you get you put yourself in a bad position.
31:07
SPEAKER_00: Basically, you punish yourself.
31:10
SPEAKER_03: That is true.
31:11
SPEAKER_03: I hope so.
31:12
SPEAKER_03: I mean, that's you know, we'll see.
31:14
SPEAKER_03: We'll kind of see what happens.
31:16
SPEAKER_03: You know, hey,
31:16
SPEAKER_03: speaking of,
31:18
SPEAKER_03: you know, somebody has really good manners and and communications and stuff.
31:22
SPEAKER_03: President Trump.
31:23
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
31:24
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
31:26
SPEAKER_03: I wanted to touch on a couple of national things just because I think it's kind of fun.
31:30
SPEAKER_03: So he bans CNBC, CNN,
31:35
SPEAKER_03: but Politico,
31:36
SPEAKER_03: I think, was banned or is banning him or banned him from the White House.
31:40
SPEAKER_03: So he banned him from the press room, right?
31:43
SPEAKER_03: And I think he's just...
31:46
SPEAKER_03: You're sick and tired of really not that it's negative is how you're expecting
31:51
SPEAKER_03: to get it anymore.
31:52
SPEAKER_03: I mean, we have our side, they have their side, Breitbart, Fox News, right?
31:56
SPEAKER_03: And then all of a sudden,
31:57
SPEAKER_03: and then now the CNN and CNBC,
31:59
SPEAKER_03: I noticed that they said they're going to stop like covering news President Trump,
32:04
SPEAKER_03: which I just so laughed and I'm like,
32:06
SPEAKER_03: it's the only left over viewers that you even have watching or the people
32:12
SPEAKER_03: that have Trump derangement syndrome and all they want to hear
32:15
SPEAKER_03: about is your negative reporting of President Trump.
32:18
SPEAKER_03: So if you stopped reporting of President Trump,
32:20
SPEAKER_03: you're literally going to lose the last 60,000 viewers
32:22
SPEAKER_03: that you have watching your networks.
32:24
SPEAKER_03: I think it's just hilarious.
32:26
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
32:27
SPEAKER_00: So this is one of the situations where typically in a long time ago,
32:32
SPEAKER_00: years when the media was more powerful,
32:33
SPEAKER_00: you could say never go to war with an organization that buys ink by the barrel,
32:38
SPEAKER_00: right?
32:40
SPEAKER_00: And I would say for most...
32:43
SPEAKER_00: Elected officials, most high-profile people.
32:46
SPEAKER_00: That's still true.
32:47
SPEAKER_00: I don't think anybody can just go do this.
32:50
SPEAKER_00: I think Trump is uniquely positioned.
32:53
SPEAKER_00: There's a couple of pieces to that.
32:55
SPEAKER_00: One, he's universally known.
32:57
SPEAKER_00: Two, he has the ability to say things in a way that force people to cover him,
33:02
SPEAKER_00: whether he puts it on Truth Social,
33:04
SPEAKER_00: whether he says it on the plane, whether he says it from his podium.
33:08
SPEAKER_00: Whether it's reported through back channels,
33:10
SPEAKER_00: he has a way of getting his message out there,
33:12
SPEAKER_00: typically by saying stuff that no one else is willing to say.
33:17
SPEAKER_00: Sometimes for the good, sometimes for the bad.
33:19
SPEAKER_00: And then on top of that,
33:23
SPEAKER_00: you have a declining media ecosystem or a diversified media ecosystem where people
33:29
SPEAKER_00: who want to watch the president live can still go to the other news organizations
33:33
SPEAKER_00: if they want to,
33:34
SPEAKER_00: although a bunch of them did pull back And he's,
33:36
SPEAKER_00: I think, the other piece of that, though, is just that
34:03
SPEAKER_00: The free press doesn't guarantee you access into the building of the White House.
34:09
SPEAKER_00: I don't think.
34:10
SPEAKER_00: I think it gives you the ability to cover what's going on in the government.
34:15
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
34:34
SPEAKER_00: They don't have to have a press person period telling you what they're doing.
34:38
SPEAKER_00: I don't think that that's required at all by the First Amendment.
34:41
SPEAKER_00: I think it's a good idea.
34:43
SPEAKER_00: They don't have to send any press.
34:44
SPEAKER_00: They could just run the government and never talk to anybody about it.
34:47
SPEAKER_00: And you would only find out through Freedom of Information Act requests.
34:50
SPEAKER_02: And I think all of that would be in compliance with the First Amendment.
34:53
SPEAKER_00: So I think some people are going overboard in saying that he's going anti-First Amendment.
34:58
SPEAKER_00: That's not what this is.
34:59
SPEAKER_00: I think he has.
35:01
SPEAKER_00: Again, anybody else would be hurting their ability to get their message out.
35:04
SPEAKER_00: That is unlikely to be true, I think, for Trump.
35:11
SPEAKER_00: I think that's essentially rebranding their YouTube channel.
35:14
SPEAKER_00: They've always put all of his public stuff on social media.
35:17
SPEAKER_00: It's always been easy to find,
35:18
SPEAKER_00: which is why it's actually not that important that the New York Times and some
35:22
SPEAKER_00: of these others are banned from coming.
35:23
SPEAKER_00: Because it's already accessible.
35:25
SPEAKER_00: You can go watch it for yourselves.
35:27
SPEAKER_00: They can load up the live stream and report on the live stream.
35:30
SPEAKER_00: They just can't be there to ask questions now and follow up, right?
35:33
SPEAKER_00: And that has to do with access,
35:34
SPEAKER_00: not about freedom of information or the freedom to report information.
35:39
SPEAKER_00: So I think it's kind of a nothing burger at the end of the day.
35:42
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, the press makes it all about them.
35:45
SPEAKER_03: I mean, there used to be a press corps and then they had like groups of people
35:48
SPEAKER_03: because partly the problem with that,
35:50
SPEAKER_03: and I've been in the press room at the White House, like it's small.
35:53
SPEAKER_03: Like it is not big by any means.
35:55
SPEAKER_03: No, they do have to limit
35:57
SPEAKER_00: who can go.
35:57
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, and there used to be a group and they would kind of determine like who,
36:01
SPEAKER_03: you know,
36:01
SPEAKER_03: of the press,
36:02
SPEAKER_03: like who,
36:03
SPEAKER_03: not the people,
36:04
SPEAKER_03: but like which,
36:05
SPEAKER_03: you know,
36:06
SPEAKER_03: the Washington Times or like,
36:07
SPEAKER_03: you know,
36:08
SPEAKER_03: or the, or, you know, the, all the different media, right, that gets to go in there.
36:12
SPEAKER_03: But, and I think you could argue the media is changing.
36:15
SPEAKER_03: And I think the argument is, is that CNN and CNBC are not actually reporting news in.
36:21
SPEAKER_03: They're just reporting negative stories on Trump and they use it as a bully pulpit
36:26
SPEAKER_03: to ask dumb questions that are trying to hit their political agenda.
36:31
SPEAKER_03: And I think that was really why they went down on it.
36:33
SPEAKER_03: And, you know, Reagan,
36:34
SPEAKER_03: I think they're just tired of all the winning,
36:36
SPEAKER_03: you know,
36:36
SPEAKER_02: and I think they're just kind of beat up.
36:38
SPEAKER_02: The TBS is just insane.
36:40
SPEAKER_02: And the only thing that we're not winning on right now is Iran, buddy.
36:43
SPEAKER_02: And I think with somehow or another, we're winning so much in America.
36:47
SPEAKER_02: We just won.
36:48
SPEAKER_02: We literally just took Greenland.
36:52
SPEAKER_02: And now it's Trumplin.
36:55
SPEAKER_02: And the other thing that we're winning on,
36:57
SPEAKER_02: which I put in here,
36:58
SPEAKER_02: which I think is just hilarious and I'd love to talk about it,
37:01
SPEAKER_02: is because nobody's talking about it, is there hasn't been any hurricanes.
37:05
SPEAKER_02: This is like the first time there's been no hurricanes in like 112 years or something.
37:11
SPEAKER_02: Like this late in the year, like we've broken the record.
37:14
SPEAKER_02: So I think climate change is over.
37:15
SPEAKER_02: I'm declaring it done.
37:18
SPEAKER_02: Executive order.
37:19
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, we no longer have to
37:20
SPEAKER_03: worry about it.
37:22
SPEAKER_03: You know,
37:22
SPEAKER_03: climate change in the southeast part of the United States
37:25
SPEAKER_03: because we no longer get hurricanes down there.
37:28
SPEAKER_03: So I find it funny when nobody's really talking about that, but then...
37:34
SPEAKER_03: You know,
37:34
SPEAKER_03: as soon as there's wildfires or as soon as there's a hurricane,
37:37
SPEAKER_03: like it's all climate change, climate change, climate change.
37:40
SPEAKER_03: And it just tells you the political narrative of it is more important than
37:44
SPEAKER_03: the reality of the situation.
37:47
SPEAKER_03: And that's that's where I just think Trump is never gets the credit.
37:52
SPEAKER_03: It always gets the blame.
37:54
SPEAKER_03: He's really done a bang up job in Venezuela.
37:57
SPEAKER_03: The fact that Denmark,
37:58
SPEAKER_03: I mean, I saw the Denmark people come out today was a Denmark on it, right?
38:03
SPEAKER_03: Was it Denmark?
38:03
SPEAKER_03: Not Denmark.
38:04
SPEAKER_03: It was... Who owns Greenland?
38:06
SPEAKER_00: Are you talking Sweden?
38:08
SPEAKER_03: Not... Or which one is it?
38:09
SPEAKER_03: The Netherlands?
38:11
SPEAKER_02: Netherlands or whoever owns it.
38:12
SPEAKER_02: Holland, right?
38:13
SPEAKER_02: Like that group they own.
38:14
SPEAKER_03: They're in charge of the security, I think, of Greenland is how they put it.
38:18
SPEAKER_03: Like it's not really theirs, right?
38:20
SPEAKER_03: Right.
38:22
SPEAKER_03: But they came out and basically said, I mean,
38:24
SPEAKER_03: they're the ones that are,
38:25
SPEAKER_03: you know,
38:25
SPEAKER_03: so this is a great deal for the U.S.,
38:27
SPEAKER_03: this is a great deal for us, it's a great deal for Greenland.
38:31
SPEAKER_03: So in my mind,
38:32
SPEAKER_03: it's not like they didn't come out and just say,
38:35
SPEAKER_03: we got screwed and Trump just berated the shit out of us until we said yes.
38:38
SPEAKER_03: I mean,
38:39
SPEAKER_03: Trump probably made a compelling reason for why Greenland should be under the U.S.
38:44
SPEAKER_03: regime.
38:45
SPEAKER_03: Not ownership, but control is really what we have.
38:48
SPEAKER_03: And it's really military defense agreements.
38:50
SPEAKER_03: And then we'll be able to get some mining agreements and stuff out of it.
38:54
SPEAKER_03: So it's really kind of a win-win for everybody.
38:57
SPEAKER_03: And this is where Trump is at its best.
39:00
SPEAKER_03: And this is the stuff where I really think his vision and stuff really makes a lot
39:07
SPEAKER_03: of sense because he thinks about it in terms of America winning.
39:11
SPEAKER_03: And so if he thinks about why having Greenland...
39:16
SPEAKER_03: In American control and why that matters to America and why that is important for
39:22
SPEAKER_03: the future of our country is usually when Trump's at his best.
39:25
SPEAKER_03: Same with Venezuela and some of those spots.
39:28
SPEAKER_03: Where he's at his worst is when he listens to ridiculous people and he puts himself
39:32
SPEAKER_03: into never-ending wars like Iran.
39:35
SPEAKER_03: And I wish that he would just or when he listens to some stupid,
39:40
SPEAKER_03: you know, farm,
39:40
SPEAKER_03: his farm advisors or his ag advisors are just killing him on the beef stuff when
39:45
SPEAKER_03: because it's not in his wheelhouse.
39:47
SPEAKER_03: Right.
39:48
SPEAKER_03: Like when when he's you can tell when he's listening to an advisor or
39:51
SPEAKER_03: when he actually knows what he's talking about.
39:54
SPEAKER_03: And I really think that's the difference with President Trump is he,
39:58
SPEAKER_03: I wish that he would just focus on the stuff that he knows
40:01
SPEAKER_03: and that's making sure America's winning.
40:04
SPEAKER_02: And then he usually does really well because I think he was...
40:09
SPEAKER_03: I just think that's offensive.
40:10
SPEAKER_03: I'm not a DeSantis guy.
40:12
SPEAKER_03: Not my problem.
40:38
SPEAKER_00: I am more of a DeSantis guy.
40:40
SPEAKER_00: I like him quite a bit.
40:41
SPEAKER_00: I don't think he ran the world's best.
40:43
SPEAKER_00: Shocker.
40:43
SPEAKER_00: I don't think he ran the world's best presidential campaign.
40:47
SPEAKER_00: He is coming to Oregon.
40:48
SPEAKER_00: I did find it very funny because Drazen is going to be at the Reagan dinner with DeSantis.
40:53
SPEAKER_00: And so the Democratic Party is attacking her for hanging out with MAGA characters.
40:58
SPEAKER_00: And I was like, he ran against Trump.
41:01
SPEAKER_00: Trump's MAGA.
41:03
SPEAKER_00: But he's somehow still MAGA and so is Drazen.
41:05
SPEAKER_00: Anyway, it's funny.
41:08
SPEAKER_00: They logic this stuff.
41:09
SPEAKER_00: It's about as accurate as I expect from the Democratic Party of Oregon.
41:13
SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
41:14
SPEAKER_00: I think that I would say there's probably more issues that he is not doing as well
41:21
SPEAKER_00: on than just the Iran war.
41:25
SPEAKER_00: Although I do think if he can wrap that up and bring gas prices down,
41:30
SPEAKER_00: it's going to alleviate a lot of the negativity about Trump.
41:33
SPEAKER_00: I think that is totally correlated with gas prices.
41:36
SPEAKER_00: I think if gas prices fall, I think that's a pretty significant drive for his approvals.
41:40
SPEAKER_00: I think it's a couple of key economic factors,
41:43
SPEAKER_00: and that's about it, that he would need to correct to get his favorables back up.
42:02
SPEAKER_00: Generally, I think, been successful.
42:04
SPEAKER_00: The other thing is he is a lame duck.
42:06
SPEAKER_00: And so he has a lot more latitude to kind of be experimental.
42:11
SPEAKER_00: And I think that's what he's doing right now.
42:13
SPEAKER_00: And I've said this from the beginning, too.
42:16
SPEAKER_00: I don't think that he doesn't care if Republicans lose the midterms,
42:20
SPEAKER_00: but he also knows it's likely that they will historically,
42:24
SPEAKER_00: that the party in power in the second term of
42:26
SPEAKER_00: the incumbent president loses seats almost always.
42:30
SPEAKER_00: And he's just prepared for that because he's going to have the final two years
42:34
SPEAKER_00: to deal with either a House or a Senate or both that are Democrat.
42:38
SPEAKER_00: And now he's the only game in town.
42:40
SPEAKER_00: And so once again,
42:41
SPEAKER_00: it kind of doesn't matter if Republicans win the midterms or not,
42:44
SPEAKER_00: he's going to be in the driver's seat for two more years,
42:46
SPEAKER_00: plus anointing whoever's going to run in 2028,
42:49
SPEAKER_00: plus backing the
42:50
SPEAKER_02: candidates he wants in the primaries in 2028.
42:53
SPEAKER_00: He still has a long road ahead of being influential.
42:56
SPEAKER_00: He knows that.
42:58
SPEAKER_00: And so I think that he's kind of – again,
43:01
SPEAKER_00: he's just doing a better job of planning than some of the Republicans are,
43:03
SPEAKER_00: some of the other Republicans are.
43:04
SPEAKER_00: He's a very good strategist politically.
43:08
SPEAKER_00: And I haven't always thought that,
43:09
SPEAKER_00: but I see a lot more of it now as a kind of step back from the fray of the primaries
43:16
SPEAKER_00: and picking candidates and all that stuff.
43:17
SPEAKER_00: You kind of see – There's a lot of good strategy in waiting and picking your spot.
43:22
SPEAKER_00: It's why Rubio,
43:23
SPEAKER_00: I think,
43:23
SPEAKER_00: doesn't run in 28 ultimately because he wants Vance to either win
43:28
SPEAKER_00: and have him be his VP and set himself up or Vance loses and then Rubio's
43:33
SPEAKER_00: the next guy up.
43:35
SPEAKER_00: Again, a lot can happen between now and then.
43:38
SPEAKER_00: I don't see a lot of crazy great shining stars below that are going
43:43
SPEAKER_00: to threaten Rubio because Rubio's continued to be talented.
43:46
SPEAKER_00: He's going to continue to have a very good And the further away you get away from
43:51
SPEAKER_00: the Trump presidency,
43:52
SPEAKER_00: the more his stock will increase again if there is a blowback in the midterms.
44:00
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, definitely.
44:01
SPEAKER_03: Well, I mean, the House is, you know, I think that's a foregone conclusion, especially.
44:05
SPEAKER_03: It seems like a lost cause.
44:07
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, it's being so close.
44:08
SPEAKER_03: It's really,
44:10
SPEAKER_03: you know,
44:11
SPEAKER_03: the only race I really care about is hopefully my friend John Braun wins up there
44:15
SPEAKER_03: and.
44:16
SPEAKER_03: Washington, that would be kind of fun because Trump did carry that district.
44:19
SPEAKER_03: But I would say that's probably highly unlikely at this point, too.
44:22
SPEAKER_03: I haven't seen any polling, but I would sure like to see him win because he's just a good dude.
44:27
SPEAKER_03: But yeah, we probably lose that.
44:29
SPEAKER_03: But the Senate is pretty tough for him because he could get impeached at that point.
44:33
SPEAKER_00: He'll get impeached, but he won't get convicted because they need two thirds.
44:36
SPEAKER_00: So, again, he'll love that, too.
44:40
SPEAKER_00: He's going to love the attention.
44:41
SPEAKER_00: He's going to love the fact that they're wasting time on that.
44:45
SPEAKER_00: I think the Democrats' first battle is actually going to be about how hard to go.
44:48
SPEAKER_00: I've had a very good
45:18
SPEAKER_00: Source in D.C. telling me literally for years, Hunter Biden is running for president.
45:23
SPEAKER_00: And you can see it.
45:24
SPEAKER_00: You can see everything.
45:25
SPEAKER_00: If you look at his Twitter, he is rehabbing his image right now.
45:28
SPEAKER_00: He's going to look quite literally.
45:30
SPEAKER_00: He's going to run and he's actually going to be,
45:32
SPEAKER_00: I think, fairly formidable of a candidate early on.
45:35
SPEAKER_00: We'll see how he does with the basin and maybe some of those early states.
45:38
SPEAKER_00: But.
45:40
SPEAKER_00: There's a lot that can happen and a lot that can change between now and November.
45:45
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, but right about a year from now, really,
45:49
SPEAKER_03: we'll be in the heat of a residential primary on both sides with an open seat,
45:56
SPEAKER_03: which is going to be...
45:57
SPEAKER_03: Because you can even I mean,
45:59
SPEAKER_03: Trump kind of had it all sewn up,
46:01
SPEAKER_02: you know,
46:01
SPEAKER_02: before I mean,
46:02
SPEAKER_02: the other guys threw their names out there,
46:03
SPEAKER_02: but they really just
46:04
SPEAKER_03: didn't have a choice.
46:05
SPEAKER_03: And DeSantis has been a wonderful governor, by the way.
46:08
SPEAKER_03: I mean, I think you can't really I don't know if you can point
46:11
SPEAKER_03: to another state that's done better than Florida.
46:15
SPEAKER_03: Over the course of like how to make it more profitable,
46:17
SPEAKER_03: how to lower taxes, how to make it affordable as you possibly can on a state level.
46:22
SPEAKER_03: I mean,
46:22
SPEAKER_03: he just keeps coming up with another way to lower the cost of living in Florida
46:26
SPEAKER_03: as best he can.
46:27
SPEAKER_03: And I think it's so he's done a wonderful job that way.
46:30
SPEAKER_03: And the hard part about that is a lot of that stuff sometimes doesn't translate to.
46:35
SPEAKER_03: It does.
46:35
SPEAKER_03: You know, presidential politics.
46:37
SPEAKER_00: Scott Walker did amazing things in Wisconsin and just completely flamed out.
46:41
SPEAKER_00: I mean, I have a hype.
46:42
SPEAKER_00: And it's really effective governors who get to the national stage and just flame out completely.
46:48
SPEAKER_00: Those are my favorite candidates.
46:50
SPEAKER_00: And they're never going to get elected president, apparently, but I love them.
46:54
SPEAKER_00: I love those candidates.
46:55
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, they're usually good guys.
46:56
SPEAKER_03: Plus, you know,
46:57
SPEAKER_03: I would like to ask,
46:58
SPEAKER_03: you know, does Governor Kotick have any friends that she's bringing to?
47:04
SPEAKER_03: Oregon?
47:05
SPEAKER_03: Like, I don't know.
47:06
SPEAKER_03: Are there any, like, really, do people even talk about any Democrat besides Gavin Newsom?
47:12
SPEAKER_03: But I doubt she'd want to bring Gavin Newsom up here, so I don't know.
47:15
SPEAKER_00: Bernie still, he won that primary in Oregon.
47:17
SPEAKER_00: You think she brings Bernie over?
47:19
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, probably.
47:20
SPEAKER_03: I think it wasn't he already here?
47:21
SPEAKER_03: I thought he did a little fundraiser or something.
47:23
SPEAKER_03: I might have missed it.
47:25
SPEAKER_03: But he's not a governor, right?
47:26
SPEAKER_03: So, I mean,
47:27
SPEAKER_03: I would, like,
47:28
SPEAKER_03: I'm thinking, like,
47:28
SPEAKER_03: who's, like, a current Democrat governor that You know, has any sort of cachet.
47:34
SPEAKER_03: And the only one is probably the guy in Pennsylvania, right?
47:37
SPEAKER_03: Josh Shapiro?
47:39
SPEAKER_03: He'd be the only one
47:40
SPEAKER_00: I think.
47:40
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, but remember, he doesn't want to blow up the Jews, so he's not welcome here.
47:44
SPEAKER_00: The Portland Teachers Association will protest him.
47:48
SPEAKER_03: They would protest, yeah.
47:49
SPEAKER_00: She won't bring him out.
47:50
SPEAKER_00: Guaranteed.
47:51
SPEAKER_03: There's really not a whole bunch of other people on that list that make their way
47:55
SPEAKER_03: to Oregon to really help stump for Tina Kotech,
47:59
SPEAKER_03: to be honest with you,
48:00
SPEAKER_03: which is pretty interesting when you think about it from a governor's standpoint.
48:05
SPEAKER_03: Kathy Hochul could wear her little hijab and come over, and then she'd be welcome.
48:10
SPEAKER_00: And Hochul has rehabbed her image, but again, I think the Kotech campaign's going to go.
48:15
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I don't think we want to draw any parallels to New York.
48:18
SPEAKER_00: I don't think we want any questions about Zorhan Mandami.
48:21
SPEAKER_00: I think we're good.
48:21
SPEAKER_00: So they're just going to go it alone.
48:23
SPEAKER_00: And frankly, with their options of surrogates, I do not blame them.
48:28
SPEAKER_00: They've got some really,
48:29
SPEAKER_00: really terrible options on the good side that doesn't cost them votes either
48:35
SPEAKER_00: in their own party or with swing voters.
48:38
SPEAKER_00: So.
48:39
SPEAKER_03: So we know, Reagan,
48:40
SPEAKER_03: that the Democrats' message,
48:42
SPEAKER_03: and it might,
48:43
SPEAKER_03: like you said,
48:43
SPEAKER_03: I think you kind of touched on it,
48:45
SPEAKER_03: that could be impeachment,
48:46
SPEAKER_03: could be their messaging for two years,
48:48
SPEAKER_03: because we know they don't have any ideas, or good ideas.
48:51
SPEAKER_03: Most of them are open borders, free grocery stores, free housing.
48:57
SPEAKER_03: It's just free-breaking socialism is all they're working on right now.
49:01
SPEAKER_03: And then hate, hate and free is the two things they juxtapose.
49:05
SPEAKER_03: We hate this and we'll give you free shit.
49:08
SPEAKER_03: So they've settled on Trump in Oregon.
49:12
SPEAKER_03: Like every message coming out of Tina Kotick is Trump,
49:17
SPEAKER_03: Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, right?
49:19
SPEAKER_03: Like legislative press releases we
49:23
SPEAKER_02: watched were all tied to national
49:26
SPEAKER_03: policies
49:26
SPEAKER_03: and
49:27
SPEAKER_02: it's destroying
49:28
SPEAKER_03: Oregon, right?
49:29
SPEAKER_02: They're trying to
49:30
SPEAKER_03: give you the boogeyman is Trump.
49:32
SPEAKER_03: That's why we're in the spot we are.
49:35
SPEAKER_03: It's all President Trump's fault.
49:39
SPEAKER_00: I saw Val Hoyle today,
49:40
SPEAKER_00: I think they were in Eugene on their Trump tour,
49:43
SPEAKER_00: and she was talking about how not pro-life it is to allow someone to die
49:47
SPEAKER_00: because they went septic,
49:49
SPEAKER_00: and that's what apparently she thinks that the pro-life, some of Pro-life laws do.
49:55
SPEAKER_00: And she says that's not very pro-life.
49:57
SPEAKER_00: I'm still waiting for the explanation about how it's pro-life to allow babies
50:00
SPEAKER_00: to be aborted, but they don't seem to talk about that piece of it.
50:03
SPEAKER_00: They always talk about the other pro-life parts of it.
50:06
SPEAKER_00: But anyway,
50:07
SPEAKER_00: so I think Drazen,
50:09
SPEAKER_00: it's not that Drazen's running against Trump,
50:11
SPEAKER_00: but I also think there just isn't any Trump anywhere in her...
50:15
SPEAKER_00: There's no Trump in her messaging.
50:17
SPEAKER_00: There's no... She's not parachuting in national endorsements either.
50:21
SPEAKER_00: I mean, there's so...
50:23
SPEAKER_00: The Democrats have attached themselves to Trump,
50:26
SPEAKER_00: but there's so little to point out for Drazen besides that she shares
50:30
SPEAKER_00: the same party affiliation as Trump that I don't necessarily think
50:33
SPEAKER_00: that this particular idea of no Trump in Oregon,
50:37
SPEAKER_00: it's like, well, he hasn't been here since he went to Eugene in 2016 or whatever.
50:43
SPEAKER_00: Very little impact of Trump on sort of the top-level stuff.
50:48
SPEAKER_00: There's had a ton of impact on the policy side with one big,
50:52
SPEAKER_00: beautiful bill, and it's going to shift costs tremendously.
50:54
SPEAKER_00: But Trump himself hasn't tweeted about Portland in a long time.
50:59
SPEAKER_00: His impact on the state is pretty minimal beyond what is happening in the minds of
51:03
SPEAKER_00: a few crazy Democrats on threads or Blue Sky or wherever they like
51:08
SPEAKER_00: to hang out these days.
51:09
SPEAKER_00: So this...
51:11
SPEAKER_00: This particular press junket seems designed for the far left flank to lock them down
51:19
SPEAKER_00: and convince them that Kotec is not the enemy.
51:23
SPEAKER_00: Despite some chatter that Democrats are,
51:27
SPEAKER_00: and some polling to indicate that Democrats are unhappy with Kotec.
51:31
SPEAKER_00: So it's not only for these core constituencies
51:34
SPEAKER_00: that they think they're not doing well enough with.
51:37
SPEAKER_03: And the tour thing, the No Trump in Oregon tour, it's actually not a bad idea, to be honest.
51:42
SPEAKER_03: It does whip up your base and get things going,
51:44
SPEAKER_03: and it's probably not a—but I mean,
51:49
SPEAKER_03: so we clearly know,
51:51
SPEAKER_03: based on all that, where—and I guess this kind of gets to my question.
51:55
SPEAKER_03: So I clearly know where Democrats are running this cycle with their messaging.
52:00
SPEAKER_03: Right.
52:01
SPEAKER_03: And I ask you, because like you said, Drazen's not leaning into it.
52:06
SPEAKER_03: She's not rebelling from it either.
52:08
SPEAKER_03: You know what I mean?
52:11
SPEAKER_03: She's not putting out a press release calling on Trump to do X,
52:15
SPEAKER_03: Y, Z, or try to say that she can push back against Trump.
52:17
SPEAKER_03: So she's really not denying that she's not MAGA.
52:22
SPEAKER_02: So I really look at that, but I go, what's the Republicans' message this cycle, Reagan?
52:30
SPEAKER_02: I'm failing.
52:33
SPEAKER_02: I don't know, what are we running on?
52:36
SPEAKER_02: I mean, nationally and statewide, I don't know a theme that we're running on.
52:44
SPEAKER_02: Do you?
52:44
SPEAKER_02: Am I missing something?
52:45
SPEAKER_02: I really just don't.
52:47
SPEAKER_00: I think the messaging is incredibly muddled.
52:48
SPEAKER_00: I saw a clip of J.D.
52:49
SPEAKER_00: Vance basically say, yeah, we didn't do great.
52:53
SPEAKER_00: If you get us back there, we will do better, which is just a terrible message.
52:58
SPEAKER_00: A terrible, terrible message.
53:00
SPEAKER_00: Because you've had,
53:01
SPEAKER_00: since the one big beautiful bill,
53:02
SPEAKER_00: Congress has essentially accomplished almost nothing.
53:05
SPEAKER_00: The Republicans at the national level of.
53:07
SPEAKER_00: The R's in Oregon,
53:09
SPEAKER_00: I think, I mean,
53:09
SPEAKER_00: we have a message,
53:10
SPEAKER_00: which is, Which is Democratic leadership has put the state where we are.
53:16
SPEAKER_00: But the problem is,
53:17
SPEAKER_00: is we do not have the same resources to get that message out,
53:21
SPEAKER_00: to counteract the negative perception of Republicans as being left.
53:28
SPEAKER_00: And so unless voters come to that conclusion themselves,
53:36
SPEAKER_00: that at the state level, I can't affect national politics.
53:39
SPEAKER_00: There's no race in Oregon that has any significant impact on the national politics.
53:44
SPEAKER_00: And so you essentially just go,
53:46
SPEAKER_00: I'm ignoring the national politics and I'm only focusing on state politics,
53:50
SPEAKER_00: which is already tremendously challenging
53:52
SPEAKER_00: because most people only see national stuff.
53:54
SPEAKER_00: They very rarely check into state issues.
53:56
SPEAKER_00: It's very rare.
53:58
SPEAKER_00: If they do that,
53:59
SPEAKER_00: if they pivot to actually caring about state issues in one election,
54:02
SPEAKER_00: we might do better.
54:03
SPEAKER_00: But I don't see a lot of evidence yet that that is the case,
54:07
SPEAKER_00: except for the polling between Drazen and Kotech.
54:11
SPEAKER_00: The sort of chatter internally is that I'm not hearing about a lot of good polls on
54:17
SPEAKER_00: the legislative side.
54:17
SPEAKER_00: Doesn't mean they don't exist, but nobody's talking about them.
54:20
SPEAKER_00: And typically, that's an indication that the polls aren't good.
54:23
SPEAKER_00: Doesn't mean, by the way, that that's the result.
54:26
SPEAKER_00: It just means they have nothing to talk about right now.
54:30
SPEAKER_00: Drazen is jumping up and down every time she has a good poll.
54:33
SPEAKER_00: And normally, that's what would happen on the legislative side, too.
54:35
SPEAKER_00: We saw it in 2022.
54:36
SPEAKER_00: We had lots of good polls.
54:37
SPEAKER_00: The result was different.
54:39
SPEAKER_00: But same thing as 2020,
54:41
SPEAKER_00: where there's all these polls showing Republicans losing Senate seats in red states,
54:45
SPEAKER_00: and then they ended up winning them by tremendous margins.
54:47
SPEAKER_00: You can have that same thing happen again.
54:49
SPEAKER_00: So we could do better than we expect.
54:51
SPEAKER_00: There's just no indicator of it in the numbers right now,
54:55
SPEAKER_00: because there's energy on the Democratic side to answer polls and to be out there.
54:59
SPEAKER_00: There's no energy on the Republican side.
55:03
SPEAKER_00: And they might still vote straight Republicans.
55:06
SPEAKER_03: And it's hard to,
55:07
SPEAKER_03: if you just run on an anti-Kotek message,
55:10
SPEAKER_03: and we talked about this on the pod like months and months ago,
55:13
SPEAKER_03: that this was going to come down to their messaging on anti-Trump
55:17
SPEAKER_03: and Drazen's messaging against being basically Tina's your problem, right?
55:21
SPEAKER_03: So which will win the election?
55:24
SPEAKER_03: And I feel like at the end of the day,
55:27
SPEAKER_03: a lot of people probably are upset with Tina, but that doesn't stop them from...
55:33
SPEAKER_03: They're still not going to vote for Drazen, right?
55:35
SPEAKER_03: Like that may say in the polls, but people tend to always go home when they get closer.
55:40
SPEAKER_03: And then a lot of the polling that we've seen,
55:43
SPEAKER_03: even coming out of Drazen's camp and some of the independent stuff,
55:46
SPEAKER_03: only really show that like,
55:48
SPEAKER_03: what, six to seven percent are even undecided at this point.
55:51
SPEAKER_03: So the reality is, is it's not amongst motivated voters.
55:57
SPEAKER_03: Like it's just kind of, I think it's settled.
56:00
SPEAKER_03: That six or seven percent already determined whether or not they're voting left or right.
56:03
SPEAKER_03: I think there is no persuasion left.
56:06
SPEAKER_03: I think people have made up their mind.
56:07
SPEAKER_03: And I think that Drazen will run enough money and Kotec will raise enough, sorry,
56:12
SPEAKER_03: raise enough money that they'll be able to kind of just counter any of the attacks
56:16
SPEAKER_03: that come.
56:17
SPEAKER_03: That are basically, you suck, well, you suck worse.
56:19
SPEAKER_03: And right, that's all we're seeing is, you know, those attack, counterattack kind of stuff.
56:24
SPEAKER_03: And it's not moving voters in any direction.
56:27
SPEAKER_03: You're just either trying to save ground or do whatever.
56:29
SPEAKER_03: The difference will be is...
56:33
SPEAKER_03: Are your zero, ones,
56:34
SPEAKER_03: and twos,
56:36
SPEAKER_03: your unlikely voters,
56:37
SPEAKER_03: your unmotivated voters,
56:39
SPEAKER_03: are they actually motivated to actually cast a ballot in this election cycle?
56:44
SPEAKER_03: And I think that's really where it's going to come down to is it's not persuasion,
56:48
SPEAKER_03: it's motivation.
56:49
SPEAKER_03: And I think at the end of the day, our voters...
56:53
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, brutal, right?
57:14
SPEAKER_03: Across our governor down to the legislative candidates.
57:18
SPEAKER_03: And I don't see I didn't see press releases coming out during ledge days from
57:22
SPEAKER_03: the offices on our side at all.
57:25
SPEAKER_03: I haven't seen really much of anything talking about,
57:29
SPEAKER_03: you know, like in 22 was all about failed leadership.
57:32
SPEAKER_03: And we.
57:33
SPEAKER_03: You know, we kick out all these failed leadership.
57:36
SPEAKER_03: Everything was back to failed leadership, failed leadership, failed leadership.
57:39
SPEAKER_03: And because they're in charge.
57:41
SPEAKER_03: And so you can take all whatever's happening around state and make it state issues
57:46
SPEAKER_03: and push on them and blame the people in charge.
57:49
SPEAKER_03: And I don't think there's And this is me being critical of the leadership,
57:54
SPEAKER_03: to be honest with you.
57:55
SPEAKER_03: I think that they're taking cues from Drazen,
57:57
SPEAKER_03: which is fine,
57:57
SPEAKER_03: but Drazen's too busy fighting her on data centers and fighting her on other things
58:02
SPEAKER_03: when there's not a unified message across the planet.
58:06
SPEAKER_03: And I think her attack ads are good.
58:07
SPEAKER_03: I don't have a problem with her attack ads.
58:09
SPEAKER_03: They're fine.
58:11
SPEAKER_03: But you're only holding serve.
58:12
SPEAKER_02: You're not moving the needle.
58:14
SPEAKER_02: And I think that's really where I'm having an issue with.
58:19
SPEAKER_03: And I think that's why they're not raising money as much as we did in 22.
58:23
SPEAKER_03: I just don't think, you know, I don't think they're raising as money as they did in 24.
58:28
SPEAKER_03: I think they're just on the legislative stuff.
58:30
SPEAKER_03: And I think that it's not transferring down these legislative races.
58:34
SPEAKER_03: I have seen polling and it's not good.
58:37
SPEAKER_03: And I think we need to get our shit together.
58:40
SPEAKER_03: But I think because giving,
58:42
SPEAKER_03: you know,
58:42
SPEAKER_03: you look at these benchmark polls and most people,
58:44
SPEAKER_03: you know, hopefully listen to this note of benchmark polls.
58:47
SPEAKER_03: And so we can move voters and voters move in our direction.
58:52
SPEAKER_03: You know, if given prompted, you know, specific messaging, they're going to move our way.
58:57
SPEAKER_03: They'll come back to where we want them to be.
58:59
SPEAKER_03: But I just don't see...
59:02
SPEAKER_03: A lot of movement in that direction.
59:05
SPEAKER_03: And I don't know if it's just, is the pitch bed or the donors just not there?
59:10
SPEAKER_03: Or, I mean, Walden's sitting still on $4 million.
59:13
SPEAKER_03: So I don't know what's going on.
59:15
SPEAKER_03: And apparently these legislative races must be just out of reach to
59:19
SPEAKER_03: where they're just not putting any money into any of these other places
59:24
SPEAKER_03: because they just don't see that they're winnable.
59:27
SPEAKER_03: And if that's the case, it could be.
59:32
SPEAKER_02: Seneca go to, I don't think we go past 11.
59:38
SPEAKER_02: I mean, we can't really, you know, you can't go much lower than 11 this cycle.
59:42
SPEAKER_03: So, you know, we lose Tracy Kramer and Brad Hicks.
59:45
SPEAKER_03: So those two are the only two really that seem to be competitive.
59:50
SPEAKER_03: Really just puts us at 11.
59:51
SPEAKER_03: So we really can't go lower.
59:53
SPEAKER_03: We could again in 26 or 28,
59:56
SPEAKER_03: if things keep going bad,
59:57
SPEAKER_03: we could lose Senator Anderson's seat and, you know, a few other ones.
1:00:02
SPEAKER_03: So we'll kind of see what happens.
1:00:03
SPEAKER_03: But I just think it's really a lack of messaging and a lack of discipline out there
1:00:08
SPEAKER_03: that is It's not saying if we had a great message,
1:00:12
SPEAKER_03: would all of a sudden the voters be there.
1:00:13
SPEAKER_03: I'm not saying that.
1:00:14
SPEAKER_03: I'm just saying,
1:00:15
SPEAKER_03: I'm not just seeing a unifying messaging of,
1:00:19
SPEAKER_03: this is what we got,
1:00:19
SPEAKER_03: this is what we're doing, and this is how we're moving forward as Republicans.
1:00:24
SPEAKER_03: And I'm just not seeing that.
1:00:25
SPEAKER_03: And I just think we need to do more of that.
1:00:28
SPEAKER_03: Otherwise, we're going to fail.
1:00:30
SPEAKER_03: Because as a minority,
1:00:32
SPEAKER_03: and this is the last point I want to make,
1:00:34
SPEAKER_03: you either stand together or you fail by yourself.
1:00:39
SPEAKER_03: And that's the only way, only path forward, is we have to stand together.
1:00:45
SPEAKER_03: It's the only shot we got.
1:00:47
SPEAKER_03: Because if you leave us to our own devices,
1:00:49
SPEAKER_03: this race doing their own thing,
1:00:51
SPEAKER_03: and that race doing their own thing, and Grayson doing their own thing, we all lose.
1:00:56
SPEAKER_03: So, last of my hope.
1:00:58
SPEAKER_00: It's too late to change the message,
1:01:00
SPEAKER_00: but it's not too late to unify around, get out the vote strategy.
1:01:03
SPEAKER_00: That's my take.
1:01:04
SPEAKER_03: I think so.
1:01:05
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I think so.
1:01:06
SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
1:01:08
SPEAKER_03: Kind of where I'm at.
1:01:09
SPEAKER_03: Hey, last thing, huh?
1:01:12
SPEAKER_03: So I got to talk about, you know, the Ducks beat my poor little Portland State University.
1:01:19
SPEAKER_00: I'm sorry, is that what?
1:01:21
SPEAKER_00: Did Portland State show up to this game?
1:01:24
SPEAKER_00: Were they there?
1:01:25
SPEAKER_02: I understand
1:01:26
SPEAKER_02: it was the fourth string that hung 84 points, but...
1:01:31
SPEAKER_02: Reagan, I mean, 84-0.
1:01:35
SPEAKER_00: Did you see Dan Lanning's press conference where he was trying to be nice,
1:01:39
SPEAKER_00: but he kept making mistakes.
1:01:40
SPEAKER_00: He kept saying, you know, we still had some penalties that we needed to clean up in a real game.
1:01:45
SPEAKER_00: I mean, a real, like, he,
1:01:47
SPEAKER_00: like, he was so, I think he was trying, and he just could not because it was 89-0.
1:01:52
SPEAKER_00: Or whatever the score was.
1:01:54
SPEAKER_03: I think 84.
1:01:55
SPEAKER_03: Was it 84?
1:01:56
SPEAKER_03: I don't know.
1:01:57
SPEAKER_03: I'm with you.
1:01:58
SPEAKER_03: I watched the press.
1:01:59
SPEAKER_03: And you could tell after he did it and they scored.
1:02:03
SPEAKER_03: And I don't know what he called.
1:02:05
SPEAKER_03: But if you're a four-string quarterback, I think, who was in at that point.
1:02:09
SPEAKER_03: You're like, bro,
1:02:10
SPEAKER_03: I've got to hang a number because I've got to get a stat on the board because
1:02:13
SPEAKER_03: then I can get into the portal and go find me a couple hundred thousand next year.
1:02:18
SPEAKER_03: Just because he had one touchdown and he got four minutes against Portland State.
1:02:26
SPEAKER_03: Some people are calling on the Ducks.
1:02:27
SPEAKER_03: I think it's kind of funny, the memes they've been putting out there and some of the stuff.
1:02:31
SPEAKER_03: It was more embarrassing to Portland State, really.
1:02:35
SPEAKER_02: It's like, why even take that game?
1:02:39
SPEAKER_02: So it leads into my point,
1:02:41
SPEAKER_02: the Ducks can find a way to do a Portland State game, but we can't have Civil War.
1:02:48
SPEAKER_02: That's just,
1:02:50
SPEAKER_02: I think it's just,
1:02:52
SPEAKER_02: it epitomizes everything I'm so upset about college football with Reagan is that,
1:02:57
SPEAKER_02: because the Civil War,
1:02:59
SPEAKER_02: whether the Ducks dominated like they did,
1:03:01
SPEAKER_02: but there was always that one time we won.
1:03:03
SPEAKER_03: There was always that one time, and you never knew
1:03:06
SPEAKER_02: when you would get a good game, right?
1:03:08
SPEAKER_02: And those good games,
1:03:11
SPEAKER_02: us that have been at those Civil War games,
1:03:13
SPEAKER_02: whether they were in Eugene or Corvallis,
1:03:15
SPEAKER_02: man, sometimes those good games were memorable.
1:03:20
SPEAKER_02: They're legendary.
1:03:22
SPEAKER_02: And you remember being at them, and we've just lost that.
1:03:27
SPEAKER_02: And it just sucks, right?
1:03:29
SPEAKER_02: I mean, for me, it just really makes me not Like I like OSU.
1:03:34
SPEAKER_02: I think they're trying to rebuild their program.
1:03:35
SPEAKER_02: They're doing a good job.
1:03:37
SPEAKER_02: I'm going to go.
1:03:37
SPEAKER_02: Hopefully we're going to go to a game,
1:03:38
SPEAKER_02: I think, in the first part of November before we take off.
1:03:42
SPEAKER_02: But to go to an OSU game.
1:03:44
SPEAKER_02: I love going there.
1:03:45
SPEAKER_02: I love tailgating.
1:03:46
SPEAKER_02: I love everything there is about going to college football games.
1:03:49
SPEAKER_02: But it really has just lowered my desire to care.
1:03:53
SPEAKER_02: And then I get into watching that.
1:03:55
SPEAKER_02: Portland stayed, and I guess the Ducks needed a real easy win.
1:03:58
SPEAKER_02: They've had a couple struggle buses
1:04:00
SPEAKER_03: on the road,
1:04:01
SPEAKER_03: but I just thought it was kind of a bummer to see that and really see that game,
1:04:07
SPEAKER_03: and yet we don't get a Civil War game.
1:04:08
SPEAKER_03: That was kind of my point there.
1:04:09
SPEAKER_03: It was just such a bummer,
1:04:11
SPEAKER_03: and I just think we're seeing it across the country where these lower...
1:04:19
SPEAKER_03: Teams like Portland State, they shouldn't even have a football program anymore.
1:04:23
SPEAKER_03: It just seems like a waste of money and time.
1:04:27
SPEAKER_02: My two cents on it, Ducks are playing Friday night against USC.
1:04:31
SPEAKER_03: Go Ducks, because I hate USC more than I hate the Ducks, so I'll be a Duck fan on Friday night.
1:04:39
SPEAKER_00: At the end of the day,
1:04:41
SPEAKER_00: I think we need a national,
1:04:43
SPEAKER_00: we need it to be more like the NFL where they can control the divisions and control
1:04:49
SPEAKER_00: the scheduling more centrally because it's so far out of balance now.
1:04:54
SPEAKER_00: The current system is not working.
1:04:56
SPEAKER_00: We need more consolidation.
1:04:58
SPEAKER_00: We need to rebalance.
1:04:59
SPEAKER_00: We need a system basically whereby you can,
1:05:03
SPEAKER_00: and I think I hate to say it because soccer is such a European, non-American sport.
1:05:11
SPEAKER_00: But their system of having,
1:05:14
SPEAKER_00: at least in European soccer,
1:05:15
SPEAKER_00: where the good teams graduate and then you lose,
1:05:17
SPEAKER_00: you get relegated, that needs to be college football.
1:05:21
SPEAKER_00: If you build a program that's good, you can graduate into the next level up, right?
1:05:28
SPEAKER_00: I mean, we used to have the divisions.
1:05:30
SPEAKER_00: I don't know if that still exists.
1:05:32
SPEAKER_00: It doesn't seem to mean anything.
1:05:34
SPEAKER_00: I think this is why gerrymandering at the end of the day has been net negative.
1:05:51
SPEAKER_00: Fewer competitive races makes it less fun.
1:05:55
SPEAKER_00: We have so few competitive races in Oregon, it's less fun.
1:05:58
SPEAKER_00: We have so few competitive races nationally, it's less fun.
1:06:02
SPEAKER_00: And then all the money doesn't get spread out.
1:06:05
SPEAKER_00: It all gets dumped into five races.
1:06:07
SPEAKER_00: And at the end of the day, I don't think NIL is the problem with college football.
1:06:11
SPEAKER_00: The Ducks definitely are the problem with college football.
1:06:14
SPEAKER_00: And they've chosen bad choices, and they need to repent and change their minds.
1:06:21
SPEAKER_03: You can fix NAL, but just putting a cap on it.
1:06:25
SPEAKER_03: Probably.
1:06:26
SPEAKER_03: And like you said, if you're in a certain division, but they just got to do it better.
1:06:31
SPEAKER_03: I do want to see U of O play.
1:06:35
SPEAKER_03: It's fun when we get to watch them play other teams that aren't normally
1:06:38
SPEAKER_03: in our league or our divisions and stuff, but not Portland State.
1:06:41
SPEAKER_00: You've got to schedule at least one or two SEC games to humble them,
1:06:45
SPEAKER_00: remind them that they're not the end-all, be-all of football.
1:06:49
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I just want to see.
1:06:50
SPEAKER_03: I love rivalry.
1:06:51
SPEAKER_03: And the thing that you lose is like with what's happening is I think we're losing
1:06:55
SPEAKER_03: the rivalry games.
1:06:56
SPEAKER_03: And I think that's kind of the point.
1:06:57
SPEAKER_03: Like you got to have the rivalries are great because you got,
1:07:02
SPEAKER_03: you know,
1:07:03
SPEAKER_03: people that went to school and then now they're playing for the Ducks
1:07:05
SPEAKER_03: and they were playing at Westland.
1:07:07
SPEAKER_03: Right.
1:07:07
SPEAKER_03: And then now they're playing for U of O and that brings the family down.
1:07:10
SPEAKER_03: And like that sort of stuff is really,
1:07:12
SPEAKER_03: I think,
1:07:13
SPEAKER_03: is what has been lost in the Not necessarily in the SEC
1:07:17
SPEAKER_03: because they're still mostly all in the same division and they still have all
1:07:20
SPEAKER_03: the rivalry games.
1:07:21
SPEAKER_03: But I just think that was all we really had over here in U of O and it's really hard
1:07:26
SPEAKER_03: to fly to Oklahoma State to go watch a game or to fly down to Texas to watch
1:07:31
SPEAKER_03: the games where it was so much easier to go up to Seattle to watch the Ducks play
1:07:36
SPEAKER_03: so easy to go over to...
1:07:38
SPEAKER_03: It was just easier and people traveled more and I just thought it just added a lot to...
1:07:43
SPEAKER_03: The game, which is sadly just kind of disappearing.
1:07:46
SPEAKER_03: So I don't know.
1:07:47
SPEAKER_03: I hope to fix it because I do love football.
1:07:49
SPEAKER_03: It's about the only sport I really watch anymore besides women's basketball,
1:07:52
SPEAKER_03: which is my favorite.
1:07:53
SPEAKER_03: Kidding.
1:07:58
SPEAKER_03: And golf.
1:07:58
SPEAKER_03: I watch golf and I watch football.
1:08:00
SPEAKER_03: Those are like probably the only two sports I watch.
1:08:03
SPEAKER_00: All right, man.
1:08:05
SPEAKER_00: What do you think?
1:08:06
SPEAKER_00: We did it?
1:08:08
SPEAKER_00: We always go longer than we need to, Brian.
1:08:10
SPEAKER_00: Too many topics.
1:08:11
SPEAKER_00: We're over an hour.
1:08:12
SPEAKER_00: No one wants to listen to this.
1:08:15
SPEAKER_00: Tell us what you think.
1:08:16
SPEAKER_00: Do you like shorter?
1:08:16
SPEAKER_00: Do you like longer podcasts?
1:08:18
SPEAKER_00: Just write in.
1:08:18
SPEAKER_00: Let us know.
1:08:19
SPEAKER_00: We love to hear your thoughts.
1:08:22
SPEAKER_00: If you're a guest, you want to be a guest, let us know.
1:08:25
SPEAKER_00: But we're talking about your races soon.
1:08:27
SPEAKER_00: So if you do have top secret polling saying you're winning, you should send it to us.
1:08:30
SPEAKER_00: We'll read about it.
1:08:31
SPEAKER_00: We'll talk about it
1:08:32
SPEAKER_03: next week.
1:08:34
SPEAKER_00: But I don't think anybody will.
1:08:36
SPEAKER_00: I think they're afraid of us.
1:08:37
SPEAKER_00: That's okay.
1:08:37
SPEAKER_00: I'm okay with being estimated.
1:08:39
SPEAKER_00: I'm okay with people being afraid of me.
1:08:41
SPEAKER_00: It should be.
1:08:43
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, maybe we'll do another governor's poll and just put it out there.
1:08:46
SPEAKER_02: That'd be fun.
1:08:48
SPEAKER_02: We were asked,
1:08:49
SPEAKER_02: if somebody wants to split it, we've got to figure out if they wanted to split it.
1:08:53
SPEAKER_02: It costs a lot of money to do that polling now.
1:08:55
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
1:08:56
SPEAKER_00: Yes, it is.
1:08:57
SPEAKER_00: And this is even, I mean, this is a great, a really great polling firm.
1:09:01
SPEAKER_00: It's still, and it's still cheaper than every other polling firm.
1:09:04
SPEAKER_00: And it's still expensive.
1:09:05
SPEAKER_02: It's just, it's hard to get people on the phone.
1:09:07
SPEAKER_02: That's why it's expensive.
1:09:08
SPEAKER_02: So.
1:09:09
SPEAKER_00: Yep.
1:09:10
SPEAKER_00: All right.
1:09:10
SPEAKER_00: I'm going to take a kid's goggles.
1:09:11
SPEAKER_00: They ruined, I don't know why they're, they're not swimming.
1:09:14
SPEAKER_00: They're playing with them, but they, they completely pulled the strap off of it.
1:09:17
SPEAKER_00: And I actually have never tried to reassemble one of these things.
1:09:20
SPEAKER_00: So probably going to YouTube.
1:09:24
SPEAKER_01: Oh, cool.
1:09:26
SPEAKER_02: Talk to you later.
1:09:27
SPEAKER_01: Bye, buddy.
1:09:28
SPEAKER_01: See ya.
1:09:28
SPEAKER_01: Bye.