Latest / The Financial Exchange Show / Why markets keep failing to broaden out beyond big tech
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- 1:11Speaker 2: Well, it is Chuck, Mike, excuse me, and Tucker with
- 1:15Speaker 2: you here. And as we look to wrap up the week,
- 1:20Speaker 2: just taking a look at what's been going on in
- 1:22Speaker 2: markets this week. The first thing in our stack is
- 1:25Speaker 2: a piece that Tucker had put out that well Tucker
- 1:28Speaker 2: didn't put it.
- 1:28Speaker 3: Out, but he wrote it himself.
- 1:30Speaker 2: Bloomber put and Tucker put it on top of the stack,
- 1:34Speaker 2: and the headline is stocks rise as fresh burst of
- 1:37Speaker 2: tech momentum builds. And I think it's really important to get.
- 1:43Speaker 3: A little bit.
- 1:46Speaker 2: Into the nitty gritty on this in order to talk
- 1:48Speaker 2: about what's happening specifically. When we talk about this tech
- 1:52Speaker 2: momentum that's building, it's happening in one specific area for
- 1:58Speaker 2: one day. Good context, Semiconductors were up yesterday if you
- 2:05Speaker 2: look at the last week, and semiconductors are up this
- 2:08Speaker 2: week more broadly, but yesterday was was basically the day.
- 2:13Speaker 2: More broadly, when we look at this week, and I'm
- 2:15Speaker 2: looking at the tech sector as a whole, and there
- 2:18Speaker 2: are you know, call it five or six different major
- 2:21Speaker 2: subsectors within there You've got and these are how SMP
- 2:25Speaker 2: divides them, Technology, software, infrastructure, semiconductors, Consumer electronics and software
- 2:33Speaker 2: application are kind of the big ones. There's computer hardware
- 2:35Speaker 2: as well, electronic components, but those are you know, we
- 2:38Speaker 2: Piicaneo just like not not worth paying attention to software infrastructure.
- 2:43Speaker 2: Big players there, Microsoft, Oracle, Palenteer all are down this
- 2:46Speaker 2: week between one and five percent. So that's not the
- 2:50Speaker 2: tech rally. We're talking about consumer electronics. There's one company
- 2:54Speaker 2: in there. Apple, They're down this week, so that's not
- 2:57Speaker 2: the tech rally. We're talking about software Apple Cations, this
- 3:01Speaker 2: is your salesforce into it ADP service now Adobe Data Dog, Autodesk,
- 3:10Speaker 2: Uber somehow falls into this category. I don't really think
- 3:12Speaker 2: they should, but you know, it's fine, Like it's how
- 3:14Speaker 2: they're classified. These docks are all down anywhere from aside
- 3:18Speaker 2: from one company this week, they're all down anywhere from
- 3:22Speaker 2: two to sixteen percent this week.
- 3:24Speaker 3: So where is it, Chuck, Where is it hiding?
- 3:26Speaker 2: It's semiconductors. Like semiconductors are rallying largely on the back
- 3:31Speaker 2: of the strong report from Taiwan Semiconductor earlier this week,
- 3:35Speaker 2: and the rest of the tech sector is anywhere between
- 3:38Speaker 2: okay and obliteration.
- 3:40Speaker 4: I was gonna say you know, depending on how you
- 3:43Speaker 4: listeners might invest in this sector. The NASDAK, for example,
- 3:46Speaker 4: is exactly flat this week, like precisely has earned nothing
- 3:50Speaker 4: this week, within like two one hundred seven percent. So yeah,
- 3:55Speaker 4: the optimism or the turn. Yes, there was a one
- 4:00Speaker 4: day rally, but I don't think we call a one
- 4:02Speaker 4: day move in stock prices a rally a fresh burst
- 4:05Speaker 4: of tech momentum, if you will. Now, I wouldn't classify
- 4:08Speaker 4: it as such. The market as a whole, what's the
- 4:13Speaker 4: S and P up now? Like one percent for the year,
- 4:16Speaker 4: I think like one in a something.
- 4:18Speaker 2: Okay, It's not to diminish or to say that we're
- 4:24Speaker 2: going to see this broadening out or that tech isn't
- 4:26Speaker 2: going to lead markets.
- 4:27Speaker 4: I just think a lot of these pieces are a
- 4:29Speaker 4: little bit preemptive and give maybe a little bit of
- 4:33Speaker 4: a misleading take on where things have really gone, because
- 4:37Speaker 4: as you point out, for the last five days, yes
- 4:39Speaker 4: you saw a rally in one of them, but you
- 4:40Speaker 4: saw prices fall in others, and we're about flat for
- 4:43Speaker 4: the week when you take a look at tech shares
- 4:47Speaker 4: or the Nasdaq as a as a general composite index.
- 4:51Speaker 3: So I think.
- 4:52Speaker 2: Overall, the question that's out there in my mind is Look,
- 4:56Speaker 2: the last couple of times that markets have tried to
- 4:58Speaker 2: broaden out and and successfully continued to rally, they've gotten
- 5:03Speaker 2: bopped pretty hard. Summer of twenty twenty four, spring of
- 5:08Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. Things didn't go well there. Sure you
- 5:11Speaker 2: can say there were you know, other factors at play.
- 5:13Speaker 2: Only the last two times markets tried to broaden out,
- 5:17Speaker 2: it didn't work. So is it different this time? And
- 5:20Speaker 2: can that broadening out you know, persist for an extended period.
- 5:24Speaker 3: But the other piece is, look, if if you think about.
- 5:28Speaker 2: It this way, that this is the really interesting thing is, Look,
- 5:31Speaker 2: you've had, you know, a broad swath of the market
- 5:34Speaker 2: that has been surging ahead this year.
- 5:37Speaker 3: You know, you take a look at year to date.
- 5:40Speaker 2: Performance on you know, names in the S and P
- 5:43Speaker 2: five hundred and you've got you know a lot of
- 5:47Speaker 2: different areas. When you look at this just on we'll
- 5:49Speaker 2: get a sector by sector basis, because I don't want
- 5:51Speaker 2: to go through five hundred different stocks.
- 5:53Speaker 3: That's kind of exhausting. I don't like it.
- 5:58Speaker 2: Energy up six and a half percent this year, Industrials
- 6:00Speaker 2: up six point eight percent this year, real estate up
- 6:03Speaker 2: three communication services down one to quarter again, that's you know,
- 6:06Speaker 2: meta and those guys are in there dragging that consumer
- 6:11Speaker 2: staples up six percent, materials up eight percent. You know,
- 6:15Speaker 2: those are kind of your big gainers that you've seen.
- 6:17Speaker 2: But how many people coming into this year we're sitting
- 6:20Speaker 2: there going, oh, it's gonna be a great year for
- 6:23Speaker 2: industrials while financials lose you know, three quarters of a percent.
- 6:28Speaker 2: Like no, like no one was like coming and saying that,
- 6:30Speaker 2: Which is why this is interesting to me. So I
- 6:34Speaker 2: think that ultimately I said that, by the way, which
- 6:36Speaker 2: which did you say, I don't know whatever, whatever part
- 6:39Speaker 2: made me right, that's what I said last year.
- 6:42Speaker 3: I like that.
- 6:42Speaker 2: Yeah, So I think this is you know, an interesting
- 6:45Speaker 2: start to the year. I don't know if it has legs,
- 6:48Speaker 2: because you know, two weeks does not really make a
- 6:51Speaker 2: trend in my opinion, and we need to see this,
- 6:54Speaker 2: you know, able to last. But here's the piece that
- 6:57Speaker 2: I find really interesting is with all all of those
- 7:00Speaker 2: sectors that are up like seven eight percent, the SP's
- 7:03Speaker 2: holes up only up one.
- 7:04Speaker 5: And a half.
- 7:05Speaker 2: Because this is a tech market and so this is
- 7:07Speaker 2: the thing that would be really fascinating this year is look,
- 7:11Speaker 2: what if the S and P makes like two to
- 7:14Speaker 2: four percent this year, but you've got six or seven
- 7:18Speaker 2: sectors that are up fifteen percent plus, and that would
- 7:23Speaker 2: be the really interesting market to me, That would be
- 7:27Speaker 2: the stark reversal of what we've seen the last three years.
- 7:30Speaker 2: Is it going to happen, don't know, but these are
- 7:33Speaker 2: interesting thought exercises just to kind of look at and say, hey,
- 7:37Speaker 2: you know, could could something come of this?
- 7:39Speaker 4: That is a point that I've made a few times
- 7:41Speaker 4: to folks. I think it's worth just reading this out again.
- 7:45Speaker 4: When you're talking about the US market, like it or not,
- 7:48Speaker 4: you're talking about a pretty big bet on artificial intelligence,
- 7:51Speaker 4: and so I just I want to list these out
- 7:53Speaker 4: again for folks. These are the top ten companies in
- 7:57Speaker 4: the S and P five hundred today, and just send
- 8:00Speaker 4: to the names and tell me which of them don't
- 8:02Speaker 4: have massive bets on AI.
- 8:04Speaker 3: Okay, now, so.
- 8:05Speaker 4: Top ten in Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Google's parent company, Broadcom, Meta, Tesla, Berkshire, Hathaway, Walmart.
- 8:15Speaker 4: They just eked out Lily today for the number ten spot,
- 8:19Speaker 4: which is over Lily. So I just listed out ten
- 8:22Speaker 4: companies I can point to three that I don't think
- 8:28Speaker 4: I have either poured a lot of money into AI
- 8:31Speaker 4: already or are talking about doing so now Berkshire yeah,
- 8:35Speaker 4: Walmart Yeah, And then I would either go Tesla or Apple,
- 8:43Speaker 4: and I think both of them are like Tesla kind
- 8:46Speaker 4: of has been pouring a lot of money.
- 8:48Speaker 3: Apple is a third one that hasn't.
- 8:49Speaker 2: But even there it still might be like broadly tied
- 8:52Speaker 2: to that ecosystem still.
- 8:53Speaker 4: And they are talking about signing a massive contract with
- 8:57Speaker 4: Google to pay them a whole boltload of money for
- 8:59Speaker 4: their AI.
- 9:00Speaker 3: So I took it.
- 9:01Speaker 4: I take a look at this list, which by the way,
- 9:03Speaker 4: comprises a huge portion of the total sm P five hundred,
- 9:08Speaker 4: about forty forty now, and it's really tough to make
- 9:13Speaker 4: an argument that, hey, we're not as a US focused investor,
- 9:19Speaker 4: and most you know, most people listening who have any
- 9:21Speaker 4: sort of diversified portfolio are it's a pretty big bet
- 9:24Speaker 4: on that one specific market. And so yeah, when energy price,
- 9:27Speaker 4: when energy company rally, company's rally, it's not enough to
- 9:31Speaker 4: move the needle these days.
- 9:32Speaker 2: Right, Like you do the math and you take a
- 9:35Speaker 2: look at and you're like, oh, like energy stocks are
- 9:37Speaker 2: up seven percent, that must really be driving the index higher. Well,
- 9:41Speaker 2: actually no, it's it's not really driving the index higher
- 9:46Speaker 2: because energy stocks make up three percent of the S
- 9:49Speaker 2: and P five hundred right now.
- 9:50Speaker 4: Yeah, X levels now the fifteenth largest company, making up
- 9:54Speaker 4: less than one percent of the overall index.
- 9:56Speaker 2: Well, it's got to be great. Materials are up, you know,
- 9:58Speaker 2: six percent this year. That's you gotta be. Material stocks
- 10:01Speaker 2: make up one point seventy five percent of the S
- 10:03Speaker 2: and P five hundred, Your biggest sectors, if anyone's curious
- 10:07Speaker 2: about it, Tech is thirty four percent right now, financials
- 10:12Speaker 2: are twelve point eight. Communication services, which remember, communication services
- 10:18Speaker 2: is this weird, completely crappy sector that includes everything from
- 10:23Speaker 2: Google and Meta to Netflix, Disney, and Verizon. So okay, communications,
- 10:31Speaker 2: but so like, communication services is basically Google and Meta
- 10:34Speaker 2: consumer discretionary. You think like, oh, like that must be
- 10:38Speaker 2: like home deep owned stuff. No, it's mostly Amazon and Tesla.
- 10:41Speaker 2: So even like, when you look at the breakdown here,
- 10:44Speaker 2: you could make a convincing case if you wanted to,
- 10:48Speaker 2: that probably about half of the United States stock market
- 10:51Speaker 2: is measured by the S and P five hundred is
- 10:53Speaker 2: really in tech related companies. Yea, let's take a quick
- 10:57Speaker 2: break when we come back to talk about Iran, Greenland
- 11:02Speaker 2: and Venezuela.
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- 11:40Speaker 3: All right, So we got a piece here from CNBC.
- 11:42Speaker 2: It's titled markets are callous Why stocks aren't phased by Iran,
- 11:47Speaker 2: Greenland or Venezuela. Well, first of all, I don't think
- 11:52Speaker 2: stocks would be phased by the very presence of those
- 11:55Speaker 2: countries existing.
- 11:57Speaker 3: So the headline I have problems with.
- 11:59Speaker 2: But beyond that, I asked Chad Gpt to make me
- 12:03Speaker 2: a joke about Iran, Greenland and Venezuela walking into a bar. Okay,
- 12:07Speaker 2: and this is what it did. Iran, Greenland and Venezuela
- 12:11Speaker 2: walk into a bar. The bartender looks up and says,
- 12:14Speaker 2: so who's paying. Iran says we're sanctioned, Venezuela says we're broke.
- 12:19Speaker 2: Greenland says I've got plenty of resources. But honestly, I'm
- 12:22Speaker 2: just here because everyone keeps talking about me. The bartender
- 12:25Speaker 2: size great geopolitics on the rocks.
- 12:29Speaker 3: That's a terrible jokes. It's pretty bad, yea, but like
- 12:34Speaker 3: it's pretty bad. But in any case, like this is
- 12:36Speaker 3: kind of where we.
- 12:37Speaker 5: Are right now.
- 12:39Speaker 4: God for all the writers out there listening, don't worry.
- 12:42Speaker 4: You still have a job, right.
- 12:44Speaker 2: I don't think Chad Gpt quite gets comedy, Like I
- 12:46Speaker 2: asked it for other ones. I was like, okay, give
- 12:48Speaker 2: me a Mitch Hedberg style one liner. Yeah, no, it's
- 12:54Speaker 2: just id it's not, but I have to do it.
- 12:59Speaker 2: Greenland says I'm neutral. Everyone else says yeah, but like
- 13:05Speaker 2: for now, Yeah, it's really bad at comedy, just like
- 13:09Speaker 2: it doesn't make sense anyways. Paid version, Yes, that should
- 13:15Speaker 2: be free. They should pay you, they should pay me? Right,
- 13:17Speaker 2: do do we get anything for that? Like just wasted
- 13:21Speaker 2: thirty seconds of all of our lives? Like the multiplier
- 13:24Speaker 2: effects are astounding in any case. Here's why stocks aren't
- 13:28Speaker 2: phased by Iran, Greenland, or Venezuela or what's going on
- 13:31Speaker 2: in relation to them. Sure, last year, as an example,
- 13:35Speaker 2: in late June, Iran and Israel got into a little
- 13:39Speaker 2: bit of a thing, like you know, hundreds of missiles
- 13:41Speaker 2: going back and forth, and you know US bombers coming in,
- 13:45Speaker 2: like it was, things got pretty big, very heated. Yeah,
- 13:49Speaker 2: Ultimately it didn't end up impacting stock markets in any
- 13:54Speaker 2: way because there was nothing there that would you know,
- 13:58Speaker 2: when when you talk about what it when we talk
- 14:00Speaker 2: about what impacts either stock there's three markets that you
- 14:04Speaker 2: can pay attention to. Equity markets, bond market, commodity markets.
- 14:08Speaker 2: Equity markets, is anything at all going to change in
- 14:12Speaker 2: how much stuff Walmart sells because of what's going on
- 14:17Speaker 2: in Venezuela, Greenland, or event or Iran?
- 14:21Speaker 3: No?
- 14:21Speaker 2: Likely are the number of iPhones sold this year going
- 14:24Speaker 2: to change as a result of that. No, And that's
- 14:27Speaker 2: why markets don't care about this. The bond market would
- 14:32Speaker 2: care about Hey, do events in these areas have any
- 14:36Speaker 2: potential impact on either overall economic growth or inflation in
- 14:41Speaker 2: a couple of these cases, the answer is maybe in
- 14:44Speaker 2: the short term, depending on what happens with energy prices.
- 14:47Speaker 3: So moving into commodities, and.
- 14:49Speaker 2: That affects commodity markets as well, which we've seen. But
- 14:52Speaker 2: there's a reason why equity markets don't care about what's
- 14:55Speaker 2: going on here, and quite honestly, it's because the fifty
- 14:59Speaker 2: thousand people that live in Greenland are not a meaningful
- 15:03Speaker 2: driver of stock market activity in the United States.
- 15:07Speaker 3: There's no revenue that's.
- 15:09Speaker 2: Generated by them in any meaningful fashion by companies, so
- 15:11Speaker 2: you wouldn't expect it same. By the way, with Venezuela
- 15:15Speaker 2: and Iran, because they're both sanctioned through through the roof.
- 15:18Speaker 2: You don't have US businesses that are involved in those countries.
- 15:23Speaker 4: And I think that is probably obvious to people by now,
- 15:27Speaker 4: and the story is not being necessary. I mean, taking
- 15:30Speaker 4: an event that was far more extreme than this, the
- 15:32Speaker 4: Russian invasion of Ukraine had almost no noticeable impact on
- 15:37Speaker 4: markets over the course of even a month, like a
- 15:40Speaker 4: couple of days, yes, but you know, over a longer
- 15:42Speaker 4: course of time commodity prices a little bit, but no
- 15:45Speaker 4: no substantial impact there. The the you know, attacks on
- 15:49Speaker 4: Israel for example, like again no substantial And these are
- 15:53Speaker 4: far I think I think everybody would look at those
- 15:55Speaker 4: and say, far greater geopolitical events than what we've seen.
- 15:58Speaker 3: So far in Venuzuela, Iran or Greenland.
- 16:02Speaker 4: I think the interesting question that I have fielded recently
- 16:06Speaker 4: is like, I just would have expected more impact on
- 16:09Speaker 4: oil based on everything that's being talked about, and I
- 16:11Speaker 4: point out that, well, there was a pretty big effect
- 16:13Speaker 4: on oil.
- 16:14Speaker 3: We were sitting at fifty five bucks a barrel, went
- 16:17Speaker 3: up as.
- 16:18Speaker 4: Recently as two weeks ago and or as recently as
- 16:22Speaker 4: a month ago, and it went up to like sixty
- 16:23Speaker 4: two bucks a barrel and then dropped back down. But
- 16:26Speaker 4: I do think an interesting the question was asked, like, well,
- 16:31Speaker 4: would we have seen a bigger price move thirty years
- 16:33Speaker 4: from now? I think the answer is, of course, but
- 16:35Speaker 4: thirty years ago the United States was not such a
- 16:37Speaker 4: consistent producer of oil as it is right now, and
- 16:40Speaker 4: there's really very little that would knock the United States
- 16:44Speaker 4: off its track of producing the number, however, many millions
- 16:47Speaker 4: of barrels of oil that they are doing so annually,
- 16:50Speaker 4: and so I think that's kind of my answer is, yes,
- 16:53Speaker 4: three decades ago, five decades ago, concerns about the Middle
- 16:57Speaker 4: East and what's going on over there might have move
- 17:01Speaker 4: prices of oil a little bit more dramatically. Today, it's
- 17:06Speaker 4: it's a much more stable market, seemingly.
- 17:08Speaker 2: Taiwan plug two hundred and fifty billion dollars in US
- 17:11Speaker 2: spending in exchange for lower tariffs. Quite honestly, I just
- 17:16Speaker 2: don't think tariffs are a major driver of marginal economic
- 17:20Speaker 2: change this year. And I'm remarkably uninterested in anything tariff
- 17:27Speaker 2: related this year because what matters from a tariff perspective
- 17:31Speaker 2: is the change from what you were previously at. Given
- 17:36Speaker 2: that we're basically maintaining the status quo, inness like some
- 17:39Speaker 2: small changes around the edges, I find it hard to
- 17:43Speaker 2: get excited that this is going to have a meaningful
- 17:45Speaker 2: shift in either the US or Taiwanese economy.
- 17:48Speaker 3: Yeah, I do tend to agree.
- 17:50Speaker 4: I think the far more interesting stuff when it comes
- 17:52Speaker 4: to tariffs that are in place now or negotiations that
- 17:56Speaker 4: are happening. Twofold one Supreme Court case could be released
- 18:00Speaker 4: any day now, so are the trade agreements that have
- 18:04Speaker 4: been negotiating.
- 18:05Speaker 3: Honest, what are they waiting for? Yeah?
- 18:07Speaker 6: Isn't it every Wednesday at ten am? We might get
- 18:10Speaker 6: an announcement.
- 18:11Speaker 2: They announced specific decision days, So like last Friday was one,
- 18:14Speaker 2: this Wednesday was one, But like it's it's kind of
- 18:18Speaker 2: up in the air. But presumably they've made their decisions
- 18:21Speaker 2: off it should be at some point in the next
- 18:23Speaker 2: week or two. So we have that and then, by
- 18:25Speaker 2: the way, can I talk about that for one second? Yeah, sure,
- 18:28Speaker 2: underrated thought about this that I I it's kind.
- 18:31Speaker 5: Of bubbled up.
- 18:33Speaker 3: The longer it goes, the more I think.
- 18:36Speaker 2: There's a chance that they end up keeping them in place,
- 18:39Speaker 2: which is not something that is priced into markets right now.
- 18:42Speaker 4: In my opinion, you think that markets are pricing in
- 18:45Speaker 4: an elimination of the terraces.
- 18:47Speaker 3: In some form.
- 18:48Speaker 2: I don't know if it includes, you know, refunds of them,
- 18:51Speaker 2: but like you basically look at how you know, on
- 18:55Speaker 2: the days when these are released, like there are all
- 18:57Speaker 2: these baskets that like, you know, Goldman, Sachs and Morgan's Stay,
- 19:00Speaker 2: and we've put together break stocks that are you know,
- 19:02Speaker 2: tariff winners and losers. And basically what it's telling you
- 19:05Speaker 2: is markets are expecting that all or a portion of
- 19:10Speaker 2: the tariffs will be struck down. It's unclear again the
- 19:12Speaker 2: exact way that it'll play out, but I do think
- 19:16Speaker 2: an underappreciated idea is, hey, the longer this goes, I
- 19:20Speaker 2: don't know, to me, at least, that gives me more
- 19:23Speaker 2: of a chance that maybe the tariffs are upheld. The
- 19:27Speaker 2: way I think about it quick break here when we return,
- 19:30Speaker 2: We've got Wall Street Watch after this.
- 19:42Speaker 1: Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter at
- 19:45Speaker 1: TFE show. Breaking business news is always first here on
- 19:49Speaker 1: the Financial Exchange Radio Network. Time now for Wall Street Watch.
- 19:56Speaker 1: A complete look at what's moving markets so far today
- 19:59Speaker 1: right here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
- 20:02Speaker 6: That markets are wrapping up the somewhat shoppy week in
- 20:06Speaker 6: slightly negative territory with the quiet day in terms of
- 20:09Speaker 6: economic data. Investor is also reacting to the trade agreement
- 20:12Speaker 6: reached between the US and Taiwan, where.
- 20:15Speaker 3: Taiwanese chip and tech companies will invest at.
- 20:17Speaker 6: Least two hundred and fifty billion dollars in production capacity
- 20:20Speaker 6: in America. Right now, the Dow is down by about
- 20:23Speaker 6: a quarter percent, or one hundred and twenty two points lower.
- 20:27Speaker 6: S and P five hundred down over a tenth of
- 20:29Speaker 6: a percent or nine points lower. Nasdaq also down about
- 20:32Speaker 6: a tenth of a percent. Russell two thousand actually up
- 20:34Speaker 6: over a third of a percent. Tenure Treasure reeled up
- 20:37Speaker 6: two basis points at four point one eight nine percent,
- 20:40Speaker 6: and crude oil up about one percent higher, trading a
- 20:44Speaker 6: fifty nine dollars and seventy seven cents a barrel. Several
- 20:47Speaker 6: chip makers are edging higher following yesterday's upward movement, driven
- 20:51Speaker 6: by a record quarter from Taiwan Semiconductor. Meanwhile, logistic company
- 20:56Speaker 6: JB Hunt recorded lower quarterly revenue as trans continental load
- 21:01Speaker 6: volumes fell. JB Hunt shares are dipping mostly flat. Elsewhere,
- 21:05Speaker 6: Nova Nordi's shares are climbing four percent on optimism about
- 21:09Speaker 6: the drug maker's new weight loss pill. The UK also
- 21:11Speaker 6: approved a higher dose of we go vy four obesity patients.
- 21:15Speaker 6: Competitor Eli Lilly is now up slightly after seeing losses
- 21:19Speaker 6: in early trading. More bank earnings after PNC Financial reported
- 21:23Speaker 6: to a higher quarterly profit on the back of loan
- 21:25Speaker 6: growth and increased demand for its financial services. P and
- 21:28Speaker 6: C stock is up three percent. M and T Bank
- 21:31Speaker 6: also posted a higher fourth quarter profit, lifted by growth
- 21:36Speaker 6: and net interest income and net interest margin. That stock, however,
- 21:39Speaker 6: down by two percent, and Honeywell rising about two percent
- 21:43Speaker 6: after the industrial giant was upgraded to overweight from neutral
- 21:46Speaker 6: at JP Morgan with a Bank sited Honeywell's planned breakup.
- 21:51Speaker 6: I'm Tucker Silva and that is Wall Street Watch.
- 21:54Speaker 2: This is something that is pretty cool here, So the
- 21:57Speaker 2: Trump administration is working with the main interconnection company that
- 22:06Speaker 2: basically helps supply power to the region of you know,
- 22:10Speaker 2: kind of the mid Atlantic through the Midwest. It's called
- 22:12Speaker 2: PJAM is the is the interconnection company, and basically what
- 22:17Speaker 2: they do is they help to you know, they helped
- 22:20Speaker 2: to get power from point A to point B so
- 22:22Speaker 2: that you can have electricity.
- 22:24Speaker 5: They're a wholesaler of electricity basically.
- 22:27Speaker 2: And the problem that we've been having in the last
- 22:30Speaker 2: year is electricity prices have gone up lots. The average
- 22:34Speaker 2: US retail price for electricity was up seven point four
- 22:37Speaker 2: percent year over year in September to a record of
- 22:39Speaker 2: eighteen point oh seven cents per kill a wade hour.
- 22:43Speaker 2: And the big thing that we are seeing here is
- 22:47Speaker 2: data center construction has significantly increased demand beyond pretty much
- 22:53Speaker 2: what was you know, priced into construction plans over you know,
- 22:56Speaker 2: the previous decade or so. Because remember, if you want
- 22:59Speaker 2: to go build new power plant in the United States now,
- 23:02Speaker 2: it's a fifteen year process to do so if everything
- 23:04Speaker 2: goes smoothly. So what they're talking about doing here, and
- 23:08Speaker 2: this is I think a really cool idea is basically saying, look,
- 23:13Speaker 2: if you are a tech company that is operating on
- 23:15Speaker 2: this interconnection, we want to have a special auction later
- 23:20Speaker 2: this year that instead of it being a twelve month
- 23:23Speaker 2: auction for power, where utilities are saying this is how
- 23:25Speaker 2: much we need. Instead the tech companies are going to say,
- 23:29Speaker 2: here's how much we need over the next fifteen years.
- 23:33Speaker 2: So they are pre committing to saying we are going
- 23:36Speaker 2: to use this much power over that time, and whether
- 23:40Speaker 2: they use it or not, they are going to pay
- 23:43Speaker 2: for it. That's what this special contract is going to
- 23:45Speaker 2: commit them to. Okay, so what does that do? Just
- 23:49Speaker 2: it's a put up or.
- 23:50Speaker 5: Shut up moment for tech companies.
- 23:52Speaker 2: If you think you're actually going to be using this
- 23:54Speaker 2: demand long term, you got to go and buy it
- 23:57Speaker 2: right now. If you don't, then you're not buying it
- 24:01Speaker 2: and you're not going to get access the same way
- 24:03Speaker 2: that you've gotten access previously.
- 24:05Speaker 3: I guess that's the question that I have.
- 24:06Speaker 4: Right So, if you are an existing data center in
- 24:09Speaker 4: northern Virginia, where this is like the biggest concentration of
- 24:13Speaker 4: data centers in the country right now because it's close
- 24:15Speaker 4: to d see what happens if I don't bid, right
- 24:20Speaker 4: I assume since I'm hooked up. I'll continue to get access,
- 24:23Speaker 4: but new construction will be difficult to do, and I won't.
- 24:28Speaker 3: Be hurd the future.
- 24:29Speaker 2: It's the new stuff, I think, is what we're talking
- 24:31Speaker 2: about here. So I think that this is pretty interesting
- 24:35Speaker 2: here again, because i'll quote you from the Bloomberg piece,
- 24:39Speaker 2: the administration's prescription for PJM is what's known as a
- 24:42Speaker 2: reliability backstop auction, something the grid operator already envisioned in
- 24:46Speaker 2: the wake of repeated failed sales, but the administration and
- 24:49Speaker 2: Governor's plan and made holding the emergency auction right away
- 24:52Speaker 2: after one clear failure with unusual terms meant to foster
- 24:55Speaker 2: a wave of rapid new construction and the only bidders
- 24:59Speaker 2: being data center owners and operators. And so this is
- 25:04Speaker 2: something that again it would basically be Look, if you
- 25:07Speaker 2: want to build data centers in the future in this region,
- 25:10Speaker 2: in this area, you need to commit to buying the
- 25:13Speaker 2: electricity at whatever prices go off in this auction for
- 25:17Speaker 2: the next fifteen years.
- 25:19Speaker 3: I can't think of a better way to do it.
- 25:21Speaker 2: Here's the one wrinkle in this whole puppy. Let's say
- 25:25Speaker 2: that I am a small company named open AI, and
- 25:31Speaker 2: I'm pretty unprofitable. Right now, let's say that I bid
- 25:35Speaker 2: on I want to buy ex capacity for my data.
- 25:39Speaker 5: Centers and then deliver.
- 25:40Speaker 2: What happens if I don't exist three years from now?
- 25:43Speaker 3: Right?
- 25:43Speaker 2: It's not a concern with Microsoft, it's not a concern
- 25:46Speaker 2: with Google, it's not a concern with Meta. Those companies
- 25:49Speaker 2: are going to exist. They might, you know, go through
- 25:51Speaker 2: some fluctuations in stock price and profitability and this and that.
- 25:54Speaker 2: But I'm not worried about Microsoft going out of business.
- 25:57Speaker 2: I am a little worried about open Ai going out
- 25:59Speaker 2: of business. And so that to me is something where hey,
- 26:05Speaker 2: what if they're one of the main bidders in this
- 26:06Speaker 2: area and then they go bankrupt, and then they go bankrupt,
- 26:09Speaker 2: and now you've got a power plant that was built
- 26:11Speaker 2: that doesn't have anyone.
- 26:12Speaker 3: To supply to. What happens?
- 26:15Speaker 4: Then?
- 26:17Speaker 2: That's my one concern on this, and it's an open
- 26:19Speaker 2: Ai specific issue.
- 26:21Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 26:23Speaker 2: Now I also don't know if they're building in this region.
- 26:25Speaker 2: Their Stargate project is in Texas, which is not covered
- 26:28Speaker 2: in this That is part of Texas's power grid, which
- 26:31Speaker 2: has its own unique issues associated with it.
- 26:34Speaker 5: From time to time.
- 26:35Speaker 4: Honestly, what happens there is they leave behind some very
- 26:37Speaker 4: expensive infrastructure, and.
- 26:40Speaker 3: Which is the worst thing.
- 26:42Speaker 4: But like what happened when a bunch of companies that
- 26:45Speaker 4: built out the internet fiberwire went belly up, we still
- 26:49Speaker 4: held on to the fiberwire. What happened to all the
- 26:51Speaker 4: companies that built out the rail system across the country
- 26:55Speaker 4: and then you know, a couple of them went belly up,
- 26:57Speaker 4: we were left with some pretty darn good infrastructure that
- 27:01Speaker 4: got auctioned off and eventually was made usable. And so
- 27:06Speaker 4: I guess my point would be, there absolutely will be
- 27:11Speaker 4: bidders here that do not have an executable plan and
- 27:14Speaker 4: end up going belly up five years from now, and
- 27:18Speaker 4: history would tell me that they end up, you know,
- 27:21Speaker 4: leaving behind some pretty valuable infrastructure that if data centers
- 27:25Speaker 4: don't need, we certainly do as consumers, and might result
- 27:28Speaker 4: fifteen years from now in cheaper electricity five years from now,
- 27:31Speaker 4: I I don't.
- 27:33Speaker 3: Know, right, still pretty rough.
- 27:35Speaker 2: And the other thing that I think you can say
- 27:36Speaker 2: that that ties in with that is if there's one
- 27:39Speaker 2: problem that you can say the US has definitively not
- 27:42Speaker 2: had for the last twenty years, it's been building too
- 27:45Speaker 2: much power infrastructure.
- 27:47Speaker 3: True, you know, like if we.
- 27:48Speaker 2: Want to air a little bit too far on that side,
- 27:52Speaker 2: I think that's a risk that we should be willing
- 27:53Speaker 2: to take. Yeah, is you know, overbuilding the grid and
- 27:57Speaker 2: power generation capacity right now.
- 28:00Speaker 3: So this I think is a really interesting move.
- 28:03Speaker 2: I think it's something that again I don't know if
- 28:06Speaker 2: it like solves the problem necessary.
- 28:08Speaker 4: I was going to say, I don't know if this conclusively,
- 28:10Speaker 4: but it prevents short term electricity costs from going higher
- 28:13Speaker 4: for consumers.
- 28:14Speaker 2: But I think it's a really it sounds to me
- 28:16Speaker 2: as someone who again knows enough to be dangerous about
- 28:19Speaker 2: the electric grid, it sounds to me like a really
- 28:22Speaker 2: interesting idea that potentially addresses a broad swath of the problem,
- 28:27Speaker 2: and I'm interested to see how it ends up working.
- 28:29Speaker 4: Right Like, I like this proposal a lot better than
- 28:31Speaker 4: the idea of capping electricity prices for consumers.
- 28:34Speaker 3: I like it better than.
- 28:37Speaker 4: Any other way of you know, kind of meddling with
- 28:41Speaker 4: the economic system of electricity. This is one that is
- 28:44Speaker 4: specifically designed to increase supply, yes, which you know, if
- 28:48Speaker 4: your goal is a to have more supply and b
- 28:51Speaker 4: to keep prices at a reasonable pace of increase for consumers,
- 28:54Speaker 4: this would logically make some sense to take a.
- 28:56Speaker 2: Quick break here. When we return, let's talk a little bit.
- 29:01Speaker 2: We got to dig in more on this Verizon outage,
- 29:03Speaker 2: because I gotta tell you, I've thought more and more
- 29:06Speaker 2: about this over the last couple days.
- 29:08Speaker 3: And what was that Chuck angry? No, I'm not angry,
- 29:12Speaker 3: I'm scared. Hell, let's take a quick break and we'll
- 29:15Speaker 3: come back right after this.
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- 30:15Speaker 2: So let's talk a little bit more about this Verizon
- 30:18Speaker 2: outage that happened Wednesday.
- 30:22Speaker 3: Yeah, yes, it was Wednesday.
- 30:24Speaker 2: Okay, after this, I'm more convinced than ever that you
- 30:31Speaker 2: know how earlier in the show we were talking about, Hey,
- 30:33Speaker 2: why didn't markets react to anything going on in Greenland
- 30:36Speaker 2: or Iran or Venezuela.
- 30:39Speaker 3: Yes, I remember.
- 30:41Speaker 2: The reason why is because if there actually were an
- 30:43Speaker 2: extended outage of US cell service across the major three networks,
- 30:49Speaker 2: society would not be able to function.
- 30:53Speaker 4: Let's talk about all those different reasons why society couldn't
- 30:56Speaker 4: really function.
- 30:57Speaker 2: So there are a number of them. The first is
- 31:00Speaker 2: we've become so it's all tied to one thing. We
- 31:06Speaker 2: are so dependent on our phones to be able to
- 31:10Speaker 2: do anything in our lives now, from navigating to places,
- 31:15Speaker 2: you know, like when I was a kid, it used
- 31:18Speaker 2: to be, hey, were you're trying to go to this place? Okay,
- 31:20Speaker 2: you're gonna turn right at the water tower, left when
- 31:23Speaker 2: you see the blue house. And then finally you'll be
- 31:26Speaker 2: on Elm Street and.
- 31:27Speaker 5: You'll you'll get there.
- 31:28Speaker 3: I have to sidetrack from it.
- 31:30Speaker 4: That was one of my favorite things about my father
- 31:32Speaker 4: in law whenever we visited him, whenever we would go anywhere,
- 31:35Speaker 4: he would give me step by step instructions which I
- 31:37Speaker 4: would just nod along with and like, honey, you know
- 31:40Speaker 4: that the second we leave here, we're just plugging it
- 31:42Speaker 4: into the GPS.
- 31:43Speaker 3: Right.
- 31:44Speaker 4: But I was my favorite. Frank would give you step
- 31:46Speaker 4: by step directions. When you see that, you know costco
- 31:49Speaker 4: make sure you turn right there.
- 31:50Speaker 2: So we just don't do that anymore. That muscle memory
- 31:54Speaker 2: is not there, just for like directions. Beyond this, some
- 31:57Speaker 2: of you listening may have heard of something called two
- 32:00Speaker 2: factor authentication, which is the idea of Hey, when you
- 32:02Speaker 2: log into something that has sensitive data in it, you
- 32:06Speaker 2: get a text message with a code, or you have
- 32:07Speaker 2: to open an authenticator app, or you get.
- 32:09Speaker 3: An email with a code.
- 32:11Speaker 2: The email or the authenticator app, well, actually the authenticator app.
- 32:14Speaker 5: Won't work either.
- 32:15Speaker 2: But in any case, how many people like I know
- 32:19Speaker 2: a number of them that we're trying to access secure
- 32:21Speaker 2: information on Wednesday that because the text message code could
- 32:26Speaker 2: not be sent, you just can't see that you can't
- 32:29Speaker 2: do that, and this means that you can't do the
- 32:32Speaker 2: work that you were supposed to do with that information.
- 32:34Speaker 2: And this is before we even get to the fact
- 32:37Speaker 2: that gee, I don't know. Like, let's say that you
- 32:40Speaker 2: want to go to, you know, a sporting event. Your
- 32:43Speaker 2: ticket's on your phone now because it's all mobile ticketing, right,
- 32:46Speaker 2: you know, you're trying to pay for something your Apple
- 32:49Speaker 2: pay is not gonna work, trying to grab an uber,
- 32:51Speaker 2: you're trying to get an uber, You're trying to check
- 32:55Speaker 2: into your hotel, or trying to go to the airport
- 32:57Speaker 2: in order to get on your plane.
- 32:58Speaker 4: You can, like that makes me a little bit happy,
- 33:01Speaker 4: like it shouldn't. But I'm just picturing people having to
- 33:04Speaker 4: call like the cab company like I did back in
- 33:08Speaker 4: twenty eleven.
- 33:09Speaker 3: They wouldn't be able to handle it.
- 33:10Speaker 4: Of course, they wouldn't have the capacity to deal with
- 33:12Speaker 4: you couldn't call. Have I ever told my favorite cab
- 33:14Speaker 4: story about your home phone, of.
- 33:16Speaker 2: Things that you're not home though, of things that you
- 33:18Speaker 2: just can't do anymore?
- 33:20Speaker 3: I think so.
- 33:21Speaker 2: The first year that I had graduated from college, my
- 33:24Speaker 2: first job I ever had was for two days in Vermont,
- 33:27Speaker 2: and I quit on my second day because I didn't
- 33:30Speaker 2: like it.
- 33:30Speaker 5: It was a job.
- 33:32Speaker 3: I was a paralegal.
- 33:33Speaker 2: I learned quickly what a billable hour was and determined
- 33:35Speaker 2: it was not for me. And so, nevertheless, the law firm,
- 33:39Speaker 2: because they're good lawyers, they still paid me for the
- 33:41Speaker 2: two days of work because they're good lawyers. And so
- 33:46Speaker 2: I end up having to file a Vermont state tax
- 33:48Speaker 2: return for like, you know, one hundred and fifty dollars
- 33:50Speaker 2: of income or whatever it was. And I get an
- 33:54Speaker 2: eight dollars check from the State of Vermont because they had,
- 33:57Speaker 2: you know, withheld too much Vermont state taxes. So I'm
- 34:01Speaker 2: out one night in Boston. I'm, you know, a twenty
- 34:04Speaker 2: two year old kid. I've got no money, but I
- 34:07Speaker 2: need to take.
- 34:07Speaker 3: A cab home. I literally walk up to this cab.
- 34:10Speaker 2: I'm like, look, I don't have any money on me,
- 34:12Speaker 2: but I've got this eight dollars refund check from the
- 34:15Speaker 2: State of Vermont. Give me your name and I'll sign
- 34:18Speaker 2: it over to you so that I can pay for
- 34:19Speaker 2: the cab.
- 34:21Speaker 3: That and he took me, and he took me, and
- 34:23Speaker 3: I don't know if the check.
- 34:24Speaker 2: Everyone was like deposited anywhere or not. But he took
- 34:26Speaker 2: me where I was going and took the check. And
- 34:29Speaker 2: you can't do that on a rideshare app. So like
- 34:31Speaker 2: we're missing that from our lives. But I just don't
- 34:34Speaker 2: think the world is positioned today for any kind of
- 34:38Speaker 2: extended drop in cellular service.
- 34:39Speaker 3: And this is not a US thing.
- 34:41Speaker 2: Only you go to China just as an example, every
- 34:44Speaker 2: single thing is run through web apps on your phone.
- 34:48Speaker 2: All of your shop like everything is through them. Same
- 34:51Speaker 2: thing in Europe, Like you try to go anywhere in
- 34:53Speaker 2: Europe without a phone not feasible.
- 34:56Speaker 3: So I am more convinced than ever.
- 34:59Speaker 2: You know, Everyone's like, oh, think about how bad it
- 35:01Speaker 2: would be for the US if you took out the
- 35:02Speaker 2: power grid. Guys, you don't even need to do that.
- 35:05Speaker 2: You take cell service down, it's a lot easier. We
- 35:08Speaker 2: can't function.
- 35:10Speaker 3: It would take us months to develop workaround systems. Yeah. Months.
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- 35:42Speaker 6: pack your bags and go. Spend your days snorkeling, sailing, hiking,
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- 36:01Speaker 6: of helping you unplug and reset. Start planning your Caribbean
- 36:06Speaker 6: escape today. Visit USBI dot com discover why the US
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- 36:14Speaker 6: to book your trip, head to visit USVII dot com.
- 36:18Speaker 6: That's visit USBI dot com. Also wanted to say, did
- 36:22Speaker 6: you see what Verizon offered everybody?
- 36:24Speaker 2: So this is the piece where I did get upset
- 36:27Speaker 2: so much like when YouTube TV didn't have access to
- 36:32Speaker 2: was it ABC or NBC?
- 36:34Speaker 3: Whoever? The heck it was. I'm not sure, but right
- 36:36Speaker 3: now who doesn't have access to whoever it was.
- 36:38Speaker 2: They're like, oh, you can like log into like to
- 36:41Speaker 2: like put apply a credit to your account.
- 36:44Speaker 3: Verizon's doing the same thing.
- 36:45Speaker 2: They're like, we're going to identify who you know was
- 36:48Speaker 2: disrupted because of this, and then and then you're going
- 36:51Speaker 2: to be able to log onto the company app and
- 36:54Speaker 2: risk west twenty dollars bill and you know, apply the
- 36:57Speaker 2: credit to your account.
- 36:58Speaker 3: I don't have the Verizon app.
- 37:00Speaker 2: Guys, if you know that I was affected, just apply
- 37:04Speaker 2: the freaking credit to my account. Like, don't make me
- 37:07Speaker 2: log in like a freaking hamster and be like ooh,
- 37:10Speaker 2: I got to jump through this soup and then I'm
- 37:12Speaker 2: gonna finally get the pellet that comes out of the
- 37:14Speaker 2: side of the container.
- 37:15Speaker 3: What was the company that took down the internet last year? CrowdStrike?
- 37:18Speaker 2: No, uh, nope, no, no, no, it was cloud fair.
- 37:24Speaker 3: Flair Flair fair Flair. What did they do? I think
- 37:28Speaker 3: they bought everybody like uber eats.
- 37:30Speaker 2: Something like that. It was like there's like a five
- 37:32Speaker 2: dollars uber eats skips.
- 37:34Speaker 3: Or something like that.
- 37:35Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks, man, I gotta tell you just like the
- 37:38Speaker 2: Internet out. It's brought to you by Uber eats.
- 37:41Speaker 4: Just a heartfelt apology, and you know, proving that you
- 37:44Speaker 4: won't do this again is going to be better received
- 37:46Speaker 4: than a twenty dollars statement credit.
- 37:47Speaker 2: In my opinion, No, the twenty statement credits fine, just
- 37:51Speaker 2: don't make me log in to apply for it like steps.
- 37:54Speaker 2: Just just freaking give me the You have my social
- 37:57Speaker 2: Security number, you can give me the numbs. You have
- 37:59Speaker 2: my credit card on file. Just send me the money.
- 38:02Speaker 2: It's not that hard. I have to pay for it
- 38:04Speaker 2: every month. I'm not a Verizon person.
- 38:06Speaker 3: I'm a Team T Mobile all the way. But uh
- 38:08Speaker 3: my goodness, what are we doing here? We're gonna We're gonna.
- 38:12Speaker 2: Give you money, but you have to ask for it. Yeah,
- 38:15Speaker 2: let me just beg for the twenty dollars.
- 38:17Speaker 5: Thanks.
- 38:18Speaker 3: Quick break here when we come back.
- 38:20Speaker 5: We got our two