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The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 3 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: I am live from my Tommy John home studio, and
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: my campadre, my BFF, professional better Simon Hunter. What else?
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: So I'm in?
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: Hello, Chad, fix the camera, brother, We're all good to go,
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: ready to bet some ugly dogs and hopefully, hopefully the
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: takes are so hot it doesn't overheat the camera once again.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Well listen. I feel like, just in the pre show banter,
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: I felt like coming into today we would be on
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: the same page. And I don't feel like we are.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: So let's get to it. I'm feeling a little like
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: a little sad today. Last night was my last curriculum
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: night as a parent for my kids. My senior had
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: his curriculum night last night.
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: What is curriculum? Is that back to school nights?
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Back to school night?
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: Oh my god? I hate the name change. Hate the
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: name change.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know that's what they call it here
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: in West Harford. I think when you become a when
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: you become a senior in high school. It's no longer
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: back to school. It's very serious. It's curriculum night.
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: Now they should reminded they're still children. They're children. Okay,
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: it's back to school night. Maybe in college. I get it.
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: I get when the parents come and visit. They can
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: give it some name, but that's crazy name change.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Well, listen, whatever it is, it's over for me. So
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: now all I have to look forward to is what
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: we do on this show. And I'm already upset. I'm
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: even more upset because we can't get on the same page. Well,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: we'll have to talk it through. There's no one else
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: in this marriage, Simon, but you and me. All the
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: outside noise has to go away. You and I have
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: to come to an agreement. Today, as our NFL Week
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: three Best Bets episode, Simon and I will narrow down
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: our five picks in the Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest presented by bet three
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: six y five sign up favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: We will also get to our foxhole, our Tommy John
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Big Balls bet of the Week. Simon's biggest bets are
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: boosted money line underdog parlay at Bet three sixty five
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: plus our underdog Round Robin parlay. We're still debating if
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: we're going to give a survivor because we are so
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: out of survivor that we didn't want to talk about anymore.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Bets are rolling in lines, removing decisions need to be made.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: As our friend and volume podcast boss Colin Coward Life
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: to say.
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: There's a sea of money out there.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorite Podcast is presented by Bet
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: three six five and this just in new Bet three
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: sixty five customers now get two hundred dollars in bonus
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: bets when you bet five dollars. Sign up using promo
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: code Favorite deposit ten dollars in place of bet for
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: five dollars to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, features,
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: three six five. Must be twenty one or older and
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off. In
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions apply all right Thursdays during the season.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: We like to hear how the wise guys are responding
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: to our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we are are,
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: and the pros feel compelled to weigh in. Simon, Well,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: I bet there's a lot to discuss shark calls.
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: Hello, who's there, I'm talking rain.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: Rain telephone range, somebody saying maybe what you do? Man?
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: It's more split this week than I thought it was
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: going to be. Last week, it felt like it was
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: very one sided. This week, there's a lot of split games.
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: In one game we're probably gonna pass. And we even
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: talked about the pros are pretty split on this Chargers
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh game, right. I think a lot of people are
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: looking at the Chargers are a better team and the
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: better quarterback, and this is a good spot for them,
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: And I think me and you are a bit a
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: little bit lost in that one where it's like we
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: like Pittsburgh but don't know.
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: One of our final five.
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: Uh, you know, the pros absolutely love the Vikings this week, right,
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: we saw that number open at three and a half.
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: It's it's down now to most books at two to
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: two and a half. So uh, not too shocking there.
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: You know, we'll get into that one more. I think
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: it has a lot to be with Ryan Fors. But yeah,
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: pretty crazy that numbers moved so much. So game another game.
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: We're probably gonna get more into this Raiders Panthers game.
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: The pros love the Panthers. They loved Andy dolon bounce
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: back spot. I told you my hesitation is can they
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: get stops on that defense.
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: On that Yeah, so that's thoughts. I think a lot
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: of pro that thoughts on it.
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: So that's why they they're kind of saying that this
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: Raiders team when the worst run teams in all football,
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: they're they're a little overrated as well. After that big win,
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: this spread to them should be closer to three and
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: a half than it is.
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: At four and a half. Five, So pretty interesting that.
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: I'm I was a little not not loving that one
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: where I wanted to be on the Panthers, but it
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: was just I just thought it was a bad number.
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: The pros think that's a good number. So if you
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: if you have any hesitation, I get it. The Panthers
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: haven't looked like a real team in two weeks. But
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: that's that's where the pros are back in this week,
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: the big one. I think I've crossed over Chad to
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: the Ravens side. The pros love the Ravens obviously. Lamar
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: twenty and one straight up against the NFC. I think
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: most professionals that jumps out to them, right. He just
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: historically has won these games against the NFC, and the
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: one loss he did have if people don't remember, it
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: was against the Giants. You know, this fluky game where
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: they were up ten, they lost it in the final
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: two minutes type of game. So for those early games,
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: that's where they're at. The game two games we and
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: Chad love, the Pros love as well.
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: Atlanta.
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: I thought no doubt this would be in our contest.
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: I think Chad's come around on it a little bit
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: as we turn along here. This is definitely a professional
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: sticking the flag in the game.
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: We all the same view.
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: There's some major questions right now about this Kansas City offense,
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: and then Chad's gonna happy to hear this the game
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: that I was not totally in on, but I'm coming
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: around with it. Supporting my guy Chad the Jaguars.
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: It's a good number. It should be closer to four.
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: It's still at five at most books. Professionals I talked
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: to that love that number.
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: They've already bet it.
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: They're hoping right that by Sunday everyone starts putting Buffalo
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: in their teasers. Everyone starts bend that number up, and
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: maybe it does get back up the five and a
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: half six.
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: So if you want to wait on that one, I
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: totally get.
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: I'm still grabbing the five now, just in case more
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: professional money comes.
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: Out bets it down.
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: So yeah, a lot of road dogs this week for
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: the professional betters.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: This is gonna be a fun. One quick note on
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Thursday Night Football from our friend Evan Abrams, director of research,
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: is going to join us on the show after the
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: opening week of the season. The New York Jets haven't
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: closed above a field goal favorite versus a team that
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: is five hundred or better since twenty twelve, when, by
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: the way, one of my favorite songs was still on
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: the Billboard Hot one hundred charts, Thank You Going Crazy.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: It's so random that Matt Mitchell chose call me maybe
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: because no joke. My wife and I were out Saturday night.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: We were listening to live music here in the Harford area.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: We're fun like that. The couple we were with someone
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: said that she loved to sing karaoke. I said, I
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: had a list of like karaoke go tos. Call me
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: maybe is on the list. What do you think about?
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Oh God, Sam, and you're learning so much today about me.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: I never fail to disappoint.
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: I just love how different our lives are. Like I
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: think I dropped LSD on Monday, and when did karaoke?
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: And Chad's out here saying call Me Babies, one of
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: my favorite songs. We're just in totally different worlds right now,
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: my friend, we.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Could not be living a more different life. That's so funny.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: All right, let's get to our final five. I'll tell
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: you right now. This game, Denver at Tampa. Denver's a
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: six and a half point dog. I love this game
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: so much. I love everything about this game. I don't
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: know how we are not going to put it in
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: our final five, Simon, Like I know we are afraid
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: bo Nicks can't throw a touchdown.
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: He just undressed all the way around. Look at that,
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: he just got it handed to it.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: This is the biggest luck rankings game on the board.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Of all the ways we can slice and dice the
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: the luck rankings home versus away, the delta in our
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: overall luck rankings between unlucky and lucky early in the
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: season versus late in the season, the team in Denver
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: spot covers sixty four plus percent of the time. Our
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: rankings have the Buses the luckiest, the Broncos as the
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: second most unlucky. Videvea out Anchwine Winfield banged up or
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: either out or playing very hurt. Boenick started against two
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: really good defenses. Is he now getting a break? Simon?
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: I need you to be my betting buddy on this.
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say, my only hesitation check. That is
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: what is going on in college football. These rookie qbs
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: keep getting worse. That's my fear, Like these these kids
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: all look lost, and I'm worried that because of the
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: way the betters are in this new waterin. I mean,
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: Evan could even talk about the end of the show.
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: This back in the day would have been a ten
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: point spread. In what world? Is this not a ten
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: or eleven spread? And that's what's really pissing me off here.
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: It's like I agree with the number. I make it seven.
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I have value towards this Bucks team. But
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: you just nailed it, like bon Nick should be able
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: to move the ball against his team, Jared Goff. I
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: think he was one for seven in the red zone, right,
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: that was the struggle of that game. So you're able
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: to move this ball against his Buck team. But it's
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: like if they're gonna do with the Patriots thing of
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: you know, the Belichick way of just once the team's
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: get in the red zone, they're done. We've seen that
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: with boon Knicks. Now, it's just he struggled when he
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: gets down there. So that's my hesitation. Jet Other than that,
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: I agree with everything you've said, like why would we
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: not buy low on this bronc Ghos team? Why would
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: we not sell this Bucks team that clearly got lucky
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: to not only win that game, but you know win
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: the way they did, right.
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: They their defense.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: Has so many injuries, So you can get me around
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: to it. It's just you're throwing out three or four
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: really ugly dogs this week that are big numbers. We
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: got to pick one or two and we can't take
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: all three or four, right, we can't take the Jaguars, Panthers,
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: and the Broncos.
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: That's that's usually doesn't work out well for us.
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: We just blindly take these gross dogs, which I do
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: agree with them, but it's tough trying to cipher through
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: all them. It's like, Okay, at least I'm getting a
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: bigger number on some other guys that I do have
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: more confidence in. Like I know it's crazy to say,
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: but I do have more confident confidence in Andy Dalton
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: than I do in a bow Knicks type. So that's
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: just what I'm trying to save us from. I do
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: agree with the luck rankings though, right this is this
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: definitely makes sense. This one team, the Bucks have been
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: lucky to start the year, where Denver has had some
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: bad luck.
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: But that's that's my hesitation.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: Chad, all right, Well, they're not in the final five yet.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: I do think we've got a couple of games that
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: we feel really good about the final five that we
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: are going to get to. I feel very good about
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: the Broncos, a little nervous because I don't think that
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: line is going to be any better than six and
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: a half in the contest. I haven't bet it yet
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: because I'm waiting for the number to go back to seven.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: I think it will get there. It's trending that way.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: The juice is sort of in indicator that it's going
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: to go back to seven. But man, I want to
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: bet this game so bad. Guess what. Guess what? Simon, Yes, sir,
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: it is time. It is time for our big balls
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: bet of the week resented by Tommy John. If you've
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great games
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: start with great underwear, and Tommy John makes the greatest
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: as you guys know, all right, Houston at Minnesota. Minnesota's
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: plus two massive pros. Joe's split here sixty five percent
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: of the bets on the Texans, seventy percent of the
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: money on the Vikings. That's why the line has moved
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: from three and a half on Sunday night to two
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: and a half, now down to two. You convinced me
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: of this. I was a little bit nervous because I
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: was anxious about the line movement. I think it's moved
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: a little bit too much for me to feel comfortable
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: going all in on it. But for the contest, you
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: feel like we're ready to roll. State your case, Simon Hunter.
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I feel it is nice for forgetting especially two
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: and plus two and a half in the contest. But
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: this is not so much banking on Sam Donald, right.
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: I think he'll keep doing what he's been doing, and
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: you know, the hope is that they'll have their wide
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: receivers back and everyone will be good to go. And
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: if obviously there's some late scratches mean chatter, happy to
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: switch this one out. But Brian Bryan Foryes, I mean,
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: we haven't really talked about it, what he's done through
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: two games with this defense, and even last year. I mean,
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: I couldn't believe how they were so good last year
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: when they just had a bunch of nameless people.
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: And it's kind of carried over to this season. Right.
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: He's turning turning guys into names and putting people in
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: the right positions. And it's the exotic blick pack blitz
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: packages they're running right now that's really working. And in
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: his career, you know, he's done well against these first
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: year year two quarterbacks. So it makes more sense than
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: you dive into why this number is calling down. I
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: know that public perception is Houston's a much better team.
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: You know, this is a team people project go to
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: the Super Bowl. The books know that, right, there's a
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: reason they're over to this year on the spread, and
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: each non cover is by half a point shot. Like
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: the books kind of know what they're doing here with
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: this this Houston team, right, they know that.
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: The public money will come in.
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: So the fact that they've moved it down even though
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: they know comes Sunday, a lot of money's men come
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: pouring in because why would you not bet CJ on
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: the road and is less than two points against Sam Donald? Right,
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: It's it's a spot that I see them taking position
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: on the public. So I want to grab it now.
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: I would grab it now just because I do think
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: professional one will keep coming down. This number will keep
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: getting bet down. So yeah, I really love this star
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: big ball is bet It's just it's a tough one
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: for me to swallow because it is Sam Donald. But
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: it's like, I can't believe me and Chad now are
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: backing him in this spot under a field goal against CJ.
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: So Chad knows though, we don't like backing CJ on
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: the road, especially in a game where he's a favorite.
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: So trusting the number, trusting this Vikings defense in the spot.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: That's what we're doing this week. We're getting back to
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: the basics. We're trusting the numbers, We're trusting our instincts.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: We're not being swayed by our bias against quarterbacks. I
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: have been saying for over a year now, I think
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: Kevin O'Connell is underrated as a coach, and I think
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: he's fine starting to get a little bit of recognition
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: because of what he's doing with Sam Darnold through two
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: games that is similar to what he was doing last
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: year with his rotation of quarterbacks and keeping the Vikings
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: in playoff contention after Kirk Cousins was injured. So, Minnesota Vikings,
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: they are big Balls bet of the Week our sponsor
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: Tommy John. They give me the kind of support I
• 16:30
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• 16:34
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• 16:37
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• 16:42
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• 16:58
  Speaker 1: One more stat for you from Evan Minnesota Vikings dogs
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: in this spot, undefeated versus undefeated in Week three, thirteen
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: to nine against the spread, home teams fourteen and eight
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: against the spread. So there is a little bit of
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: trendiness to back up Minnesota Vikings. You mentioned off the top,
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: the Chargers and the Steelers. I almost just want to
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: skip this game. What. I don't think it's going to
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: make our final five. The line has moved in the
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: direction of the Chargers. The line is now one and
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: a half open to two. There's more money than tickets
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: on the Chargers, so I feel like it's wise guys
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: moving it, especially when the money came in the early
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: side of the week. I just feel like it's too
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: hard to play this game. Too many things up in
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: the air for me.
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a fun game, And honestly, if you're
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: between professional betters, right, this is an old school news
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: school mentality, the news school with that bets, trends and
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: situational football. They love Herbert in this type of spot, right.
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: He's actually performed well going from west to east as
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: a covering machine. And I think just the old school
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: guys I talk to, they'll love Pittsburgh here they're viewing
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: it of you know, they have good intel that Herbert's
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: banged up and he's kind of toughing it out right
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: the new hardball way, that he's going to play through
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: this bad ankle in this spot. And it's just it's
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: hard for me not to like Pittsburgh. But I know
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: the hesitation.
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: We haven't seen Justin Fields have to make a completion
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: down three points at all this season, right, They've been
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: up in every game he's played in, So understand the hesitation.
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: I get why. I mean, you are a little getting
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: a little cold feet on it.
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: But you know, maybe Sunday this would be a shocker
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: if this is somehow made into our one with Pittsburgh.
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: That's why I still liking this game.
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: But I agree with Chad right now, there's five other
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: games I like better than we just sit here today.
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: But I just want people to understand that it's it's
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: a game that is split, right, and if you're having
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: a tough time with it, so other professionals, I'm just
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: I prefer Pittsburgh in the spot on Tomlin rather than
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: backing this horriball team that I feel like has gotten
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: a little lucky to start the year. Rather than Pittsburgh
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: that feels like their defense has earned every win for
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: them this season.
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: Well, look, you've got JK. Dobbins who is running like
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: he's superhuman, and you've got a defense that has looked great.
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: We don't know yet if that Raiders team they beat
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: up on Week one is the Raiders team and offense
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: that excelled against the Ravens or was terrible against the Chargers.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: We don't know yet if the Ravens defense, which we've
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: said is not nearly as good as it has been
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: the past. We do know that the Steelers have stolen
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: two games because of their defense, so that is unquestionable.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: And we know that Tomlin is a great coach against
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: the spread, and we know that that defense is going
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: to show up, especially if TJ. Watt is. There a
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: lot of questions on this one. If it got to
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: pick all and if on Sunday it's at half, you know,
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: Steelers minus a half. Maybe I do think there's going
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: to be at least six other games that we feel
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: better about than the Steelers come come Sunday. One of
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: those games Philadelphia at New Orleans Eagles now at two
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: and a half point dog, massive swing and this is
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: fifty to fifty split everywhere, money, tickets, everything. You leaned
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: the Saints on Sunday night when the line was Saints
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: plus two and a half. Yeah, I know, it's now
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: moved five points. This feels like such an overreaction and
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: such a letdown spot for the Saints. Like the Eagles
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: are the side here at this point.
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's definitely let down spots with Saints and Eagles
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: do flick the side.
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: But the move does feel.
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: Warrant in the sense that their offense is different without
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: a J. Brown, right, that deep threat is taken away,
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: that that is a big deal for this Eagles offense.
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: So I get the movement, but you're right, like you
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: couldn't have more opposite teams right now?
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: Right the Saints, How did they not feel themselves? Right?
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: I mean, this is a team that I mean, I
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: can't remember. I can't.
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to think of a team that's done this before,
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: Like we just didn't see a team coming. They put
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: up back to back weeks of over forty points.
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: I'm running through my mind. I really can't think of
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: on the Rams, right.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: Kurt Warner out of nowhere, honestly slower and we kept
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: waiting for that team to break. Right. We kept waiting
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: like you didn't because you know, you were five. But
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: me as an old person, like you know, that's the season.
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: I was writing the book The Odds, and I was
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: in Vegas every single week and watching bookmakers try to
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: adjust as fast as they can and then sweating the
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: liability because they had opened the Rams to win the
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl at two hundred to one, and so every
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: single week they were trying to play catchup on this
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: team and you couldn't, like, you couldn't move the number
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: fast enough. So I think it presents a real problem
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: for people like you and the rest of the professional
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: betting community on the Saints, because everyone was so down
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: on the Saints, to the point where some people were
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: picking them to be last in the NFC South. All
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: of a sudden, do you have to like grade the
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: Saints better than the Niners, better than the Eagles, better
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: than the Lion, Like it's a massive adjustment you might
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: have to make.
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And it's I agree that with what you're saying
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: at the very the beginning, which is like this line
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: moved too much and you know hoping we talked on
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: Tuesday Show. I was really hoping that it would stay
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: at three and maybe we would get the bump up
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: at three and a half. But you just saw that
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: eventually professional money was going to come in and take.
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: That number of three. So I like this game. There
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: is another game where it's because it's.
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: So early in the season, I don't have the most
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: confidence I would later in the season where it's you
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: see this Eagles team having some growing pains, not just
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: defensively but offensively, and this matchup actually is a pretty
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: decent matchup for this Saint's team offensively about what they
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: can do against this Eagles defense, because Eagles don't have
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: any pass rush and we've seen Derek Carr if he
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: wants to do well, it's when he has no pressure
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: that's really.
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: When he succeeds.
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: So he hasn't had to face any type of pass
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: rush because his team has been up fourteen to three
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: and back to back games to start the game. But
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: I'm with you, Chad, this this Eagles team, you expect
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: to bounce back and at best this should probably be
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: a pick on, but public reaction has moved this so
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: many points right, and that the books they need to.
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: Protect against that. So if you are scared off about
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: these Eagles at two and a half right making a
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: teaser leg. But to me, I'm with Chat. I have
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: no fear here.
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: I think the Eagles pulled the upset off and we
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: almost put this in our money line, Brown Robin. But
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: maybe we'll stay there for the end of the show.
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: The uh you've been you know, you and I talked
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: about Philly Sports Radio and Chicago Sports Radio. How to
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: the weekend? Give me your like have people? People have
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: been bashing Nick Sirianni for the call for Saquon and
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: the throw, But why isn't that Kellen Moore's fault. Why
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: aren't people going after Kellen Moore.
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: Because no one knows what Nick Sirianni does.
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: That's the thing I think Philly is just we were already,
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: you know, getting ready to push this guy off the boat,
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: and you know, now he's just he's on the plank
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: at this point, like they're really it's just the cause
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: situation of when it's working, and he says all the
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: stupid little phrases it works when we're not winning. It's
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: just it's just a bad look. So I told you,
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: I don't panic about it. It's so early in the year.
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: This this feels like the first four weeks really is
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: preseason to a lot of these NFL teams and coaching staff.
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: So yeah, the the big issue I had with him
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: was not taking the three early in the game.
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: But you know how I like it.
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: I like teams to be aggressive, so you know, obviously
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: foreshadowing and seeing the future. I didn't realize that was
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: going to be the decider of the game, that three
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: points that he passed on there.
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: But I'm I'm with you.
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: I I blame cullenm moore, but I don't I'm not
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: mad at him. But Saquon dropped that I like to call.
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: I thought it was I thought it was a smart
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: call in the sense that you know they're going for
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: the win there. But the pushback I think in Philadelphia
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: is just Saquon could pick up five seven yards at
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: a time, why did we keep going away from that
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: in the red zone and putting the ball in Hurts
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: hands where it just clearly didn't work in that game.
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: So another matchup though for the Eagle against the Saints team.
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: They should be able to run this ball at will
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: against the Saints team. That's, to me is the biggest
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: weakness to the Saints team. So as as me and
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: Ched are back in this team, we need say quant
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: to have a day and I think we're gonna see that.
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: This is the ultimate motivational game for a guy who
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: just had you know, you could say a loss on him.
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: So I definitely like this bounce backsot for this Eagles
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: and this offense.
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: Saints are only the fifteen since nineteen ninety to go
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: forty forty opening two weeks of the season. Thank you, Evan.
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: All right, crazy, we don't have a favorite we love yet.
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: You know I have the one favora well, yeah, we'll
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: sit with.
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: Green Bay at Tennessee Tennessee minus one and a half.
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: Now, yeah, like.
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: I decided, I fell in love with Tennessee after you know,
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: three days of research. I saw the line got to
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: two and a half and it was a two and
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: a half minus one fifteen. So I was nervous the
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: line was going to go back up to three, and
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: so I rushed to bet the two and a half
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: as soon as I put the pick in the app.
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: No joke.
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: Within three minutes, I got a slack from Matt Treby,
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: our NFL editor, who also happens to be a native
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin who told me that Jordan Love was practicing yesterday.
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: And then that line dropped to two, and then it
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: dropped to one and a half, which is where it
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: is now. And now I just feel like a schmuck
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: because I bet the Titans at two and a half,
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: the Titans could easily be two and oh right now, Simon,
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: and I know, like we're nervous about the Jordan Love
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: factor here, and that's important, but like there are blocked
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: punts and will Lev's bonehead plays away from being two
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: and oh. Whatever worked for the Packers as a game
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: with Malik Willis against the Colts will not work against
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: the Titans. We don't know Jordan loves status. Maybe there
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: was a decoy, Maybe he's just getting on the field
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: to get loose. But this Titans team isn't as bad
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: as their record suggests.
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Hape, you came around. I told you Sunday night.
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: I loved it.
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: But you just said the big thing holding us back
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: here is Jordan Love. Like that's a five to six
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: point line movement if he is the quarterback. And that's
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: why I think professions are taking a position on Green
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: Bay just in case that does happen.
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: It's like, Okay, what does his line go up to.
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: A minus three minus three and a half for green Bay?
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's how big of an upgrade he is. Yeah,
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: at the quarterback position here, So yeah, to me, if
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: this is gonna be one of our favorites come Sunday,
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: I got no problem from this. In chat, you know
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: how much I love this Tennessee defense, especially up front.
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: This is a perfect matchup for them going against Green
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: Bay again.
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: Without Jordan Love.
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: If it's Jordan Love, we have a little bit of
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: hesitation there, but yeah, I love it, Chad. So if
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: we could lock in the contest today though at one
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: and a half with Tennessee and then you know it
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: goes it does go up to three when Jordan loves
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: out me and you will love that, right. That would
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: be the kind of game that will ruin our Sunday
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: because we didn't switch it out. Yeah, we should have
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: for a different game, just because that's going to be
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: great value on the numbers. So I'm right there with you.
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: I love Tennessee, have no issue making that our only favorite.
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: But there is one other favorite I do love, but
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: this one is definitely at the top. Where it's just defensively.
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: I love the matchup and it's just Man, we talk
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: all the time. You got to bet these zero and
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: two teams straight up, oh and two against the spread
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: and week agree. There's a couple of teams like this.
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: This is one of them. I circle, So I'm with
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: you Chad on this one.
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: We still owe people of Foxhall. I don't think this
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: is it yet because there's too much yeah certain at
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: the quarterback position. We talked a lot about the Giants
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: in Cleveland the other day. Cleveland is six and a
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: half point favorite. We're still a waiting word on both tackles.
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: Jack Conklin and Jedrick Willis for the Browns, who I
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: have not played the Giants like. This is a good
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: spot for them. A lot of luck, rankings advantages. Winless
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: teams in Week three go sixty percent against the spread
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: the past twenty years. I don't hate the Giants here
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: at all. I know like it's ugly, but this is
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: what we do and we make these hard decisions. No noise, Simon,
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: no noise. Tuck me off the ledge on the Giants.
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: Man, I can't this Browns team just as lost offensively.
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: I think there are two for fourteen on third downs
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: against the Jaguars.
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: It's just all bad.
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: The total feels very high, and I'm looking at the
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: money on the site and it's like all the money's
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: pouring in on the under and it really hasn't move much,
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: which is a very interesting move by the sportsbooks.
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: I'm not seeing what they're seeing here.
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: I just see this being a slug it out, ugly
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: game with two teams that have major questions.
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: At the quarterback position right now.
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: So you know on that chat, I want the desperate dog,
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: and there is no more desperate team right now than
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: the Giants. They knew last week they gave one away, right,
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: that's a spot that yes, I think historically teams that
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: score three touchdowns versus a team that does not score
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: a touchdown usually win those games.
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: So man, to be a Giants fan right now, it
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: must just be absolutely brutal. I can't even imagine. But this,
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: to me has got everything written about upsets, So this
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: could squeak into one of our five now the more
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: I'm thinking about it.
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: But it's like these big dogs, right, I think historically
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: I haven't had an amazing number about it, like these
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: these dogs of.
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: Five and a half or six and a half are
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: nine to zero one or nine and one this.
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: Year to start. That's that's pretty crazy, Chad. So it's
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: going to eventually go the other way at some point.
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: So not to shock to anyone that we love these
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: big dogs this week, but there's definitely a reason to
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: be a little hesitant on just blindly betting all of them.
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: This Giants, one of all of them.
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: I feel pretty good about, just in the sense that
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: it's still all about Deshaun Watson. I just don't think
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: that offense is right yet defensively the Giants, you know,
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: they had one of the worst secondaries. Can he take
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: advantage of that? I haven't seen anything to prove otherwise.
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: So I like where you're at, coming with a six
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: and n half chat. I could see this being One
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: War five right now.
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at our list and it's Giants, Titans, Broncos, Vikings.
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: Now we're getting back to it. No more of this,
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: Jared goff Rock Prety, Dak Prescott, bullshit right, Chicago and Indy,
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: I think you and I are split on this game. O.
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: Mine's at one and a half. I just think that
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: I can't get behind the Bears. Yet I don't love
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: that the wise guys are backing them. Hungry Bears are
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: violent Bears. Their rush defense has just not been very good.
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: That's what I expect the Colts to do and do well.
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: I think it's a coaching mismatch. I think it's a
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: home game for Anthony Richardson, a little bit more of
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: a get right game, And I can find a lot
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: of value in betting on the Colts.
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: Yeah, keep it moving. It won't be one of my
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: top eight bigger bets of this week.
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: So you're right, it's another team Colts I went to
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: at home, clearly going to be the more desperate team, right, Yes,
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: if they know if they go for three, the season's
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: basically over.
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: So I get where you're coming from.
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: My view of it was just finally, Kayler Williams is
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: going to play against the defense that can be passed on. Right,
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: He's just been through the ringer the last two weeks
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: and he's hearing all the noise.
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: So it's just like Ken he finally bounced back.
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: And I do think your defense, you know, they might
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: shruggle against the run, but they're so good in every
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: other aspect of what they do.
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: So amazing. And coverage. Their pass rush has been great.
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: Like those two elements, they're you know, top five.
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: Only they had Jalen Carter. I mean only that's all
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: they're missing is a de tackle on the middle.
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: Miami at Seattle, this line is at four and a half.
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: I think I think we both felt on Tuesday that
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: the line had moved too much and there was no
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: more value. I'm kind of having second thoughts, Okay, you know,
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: like I like what the Dolphins secondary has been doing.
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: The Seahawks won't have Kenneth Walker. That the Seahawks I
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: think are getting a lot of credit for beating the
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: Broncos and the Patriots. Yeah, and not doing it decisively.
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: And even with Skyler Thompson, there's still so much more
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: talent on this Miami team than there was on those
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: other two teams. Still might be a little bit of
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: value on this.
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: There could be, but yeah, I'm with I'm just not
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: gonna get there. I'm I tried to even going through
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: Evans trends and reading all his trends and being like,
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: there's gonna be something in here to get me on
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: this Miami team just because it's another team that you know,
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: they should be owing too. I mean, they got really
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: lucky that Week one, and it's like, all right, this
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: is the kind of team I do like to back
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: in these type of spots because I just said, it's
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: like the Seahawks, How are they not overvalued? But there
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: are another team the books have had a pretty good
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: read on, right, They're They're all also zero and two
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: against the spread this season to start the year, both
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: games not covering by half a point. So yeah, I
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: just I can't. It's just really one of our five,
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: That's what I'm like trying to think of here, chat.
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: We really gonna make this one of our five. I
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: can't do it, but maybe maybe Chad this will be
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: one of his picks to put in. But as we
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: see it right now, I got no read on this one.
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: Well look, if you asked me to choose between the
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: Broncos and the Dolphins, I'm one hundred choosing the Broncos.
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: I'd rather Yeah, I'd rather the Broncos.
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: You know that's not even a question to me. All Right,
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: people don't want to hear us talk about this, but
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: I do think we have to be responsible and talk
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: about Carolina at the Raiders. Okay, like this number has
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: moved down from seven to five and a half off
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: the Dalton news. Now it's down to five. I know
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: you had this rated at five and a half, so
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: clearly you're not going to see value on the Panthers
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: at five. I know we believe this defense can't do anything,
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: but I do think that just by having Andy Dalton
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: be the quarterback, you're automatically going to improve the defense's
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: chances to perform. I listened to Raybund and Stucky on
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: the Action Pod this morning. Raybund had a stat that
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: the average field position for Panthers opponents has been the
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: thirty nine yard line. The Panthers the opponent's thirty nine
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: yard line, So like, you got to think it'll be
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: better just from field position perspective, they'll be in a
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: better position to stop the pass, to rush the passer.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know. Like if we were
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: truly unfeeling, unemotional traders, yeah, working for Bill Ackman and
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: one of the biggest hedge funds in the world, and
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: we were committed, we would bet the Panthers. Here, We're
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: not gonna do it because we don't want our audience
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: to fully revoke, but you know, we should bet the Panthers.
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: A little bit.
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: But it's also like you got a good number at
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: the seven or six and a half on the Panthers.
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: Now you're kind of getting a bad number. But I
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: get what they're saying too, like Chris talking about this
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: kind of spot for Andy and this team. Like we've
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: seen this right where the new quarterback comes in and
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: does give a new little pop to a team. And
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: you know, the Raiders coming off that insane win against
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: the Ravens, you expect to let down the final week, right,
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: They're gonna be feeling themselves all week here.
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: But I don't know.
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: My problem is I probably watched too much of the
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: all twenty two of this Panthers team, and it's just
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: everything Like the only guy that felt like he was trying,
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: that's not fair. The offensive line has been trying the
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: whole time. But like there's a couple of times that
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: these guys running routes would just take the routes off.
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: You expect that to be different here with Andy Dalton.
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: The wide receivers I lost total confidence.
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: Are Bryce Shunk's.
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: I really haven't seen what the Panthers are because it
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: feels like their team would give up midway through the
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: second quarter. So this Raiders team, this is a big
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: number for this team to be getting, right. They aren't
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: one of the best teams in football. Their team is
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: still trying to figure out their own shit right now.
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: So man, there's just other dogs I like more than
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: this Panthers team.
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: That's the hardest part. He is trying to get there
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: on this number. It's just it's hard for me to do.
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: They're so bad. This team is so bad. Like defensively,
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: it's so bad.
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: It's going back to the girlfriend again and again and again,
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: no matter how many times you've been burned, matter how
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: bad she makes you look to your friends, what is
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: wrong with this dude? He's such a sucker. They just
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: keep getting me. All right, we'll put it on the list.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: Baltimore at Dallas. I hate this game. They are the
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys, a free wheeling All American Star kiss team.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: I feel like there's new defensive coordinators on both sides.
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: There's no running game to speak of. The Cowboys backfield
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: is terrible. I think there's a huge identity crisis on
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: all sides of the ball for both of these teams.
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: We have four identity crisis happening, crises prices are happening.
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: I think the Ravens have just had bad luck. That's
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: honestly what it is to me. Right, they missed winning
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: that first game by toe. The last game, they're up
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: ten and then it just all went wrong in the
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: final four minutes of that game, like Lamar gans sacked
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: and the punt I think they punted like twenty yards
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: to give the Raiders a short field.
• 39:53
  Speaker 3: They just went It all kept.
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: Going wrong for this Ravens team where I think we
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: talked about coming to the season, we had major questions
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: about their defense because they were so thin, especially the
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: defensive line that you know they don't have guys to
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: switch in and out right. If that top unit is
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: gas and doesn't have it early on, it feels like
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: Dallas can be cooked on defense. So Derrick Henry has
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: not been as bad as people perceive. Like this running
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: game isn't as horrible as people think it is for
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: this Ravens team.
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: And let's throw some status to you. Maybe I can
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: I can get you the other side.
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: Lamar when it's the spreads under three points or less
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: two and a half, where he's an underdog. He's twenty
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: two and seven against the spread against the NFC. Chad,
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: he's twenty and one straight up. This is a straight
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: up line.
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: It's one.
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: So yeah, is this feel a little trappy a little
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: bit because me and Chad went to be on Dallas here,
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: But then you see Cede Lamb didn't practice yesterday because
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: he had a bad ankle, and it's.
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: Just like, oh my god, I mean, come on, if
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: CD's not right in this matchup, that's got.
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: To be a huge win for this Ravens team. It's
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: just what is the identity on offensive? CD's not right
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: for this Dallas team?
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: Right? He is, to me, the key to that offense.
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: It makes everything go.
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: As much as we want to say it's all Dak,
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: It's like CD's the one that makes the big plays
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: out of nothing.
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: So I think I'll be able to get you there.
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: Maybe on Sunday I could get you to get it
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: in there now.
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: But all my all the favorites this week, obviously I
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: put Titans number one if it's Malik Willis, but number
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: two right there is the Ravens. I just they're oher
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: and two against the spreadshat oh and two straight up.
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: It's horball. I mean, we have to take them in
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: the spot. This is what we always take the Ravens
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: in this. No one believes in us back against the
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: wall spot. But I understand your hesitation. It's just the
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: vibes are so bad. No one would be shocked if
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: they're oh and three to start the year. But man
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: Lamar in this spot, historically we have the numbers that
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: back it up.
• 41:47
  Speaker 3: He does very well.
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: I worry about this defense. The Ravens defense.
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: Totally totally get it. I mean we just saw Minshew
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: go up and down the field on them, so it's
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: I I have no rebuttal against it. But no, it's
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: it's it's bad right now for the Ravens.
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: We haven't chosen a foxhole yet and the final two
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: games on our list are already chosen as an exact decision,
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: and Simon says, so we do have to get into
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: a foxhole here.
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: Who do you think for foxhole? Then you want to
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: do Eagles And I know you're not here on the Ravens,
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: but we're both on the Eagles.
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: I'm also not afraid of the Giants. I know you
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: won't be in the foxhol with me on the Broncos.
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna bet it, but it's gonna be a little
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: baby bet. I'm just oh man, these rookie qbs are
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: so bad, Chad, I can't I can't get over how
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: bad they are.
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: Is I'd rather be in the foxhole on Tennessee.
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: Okay, I'm with you on that one. Then all right,
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: we're going to.
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: The foxhole on the Tennessee Titans running the foxhol Let's
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: climb down into the foxhole. All right. Last couple of
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: games here, Detroit at Arizona. I still see nothing. I
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: know you like saying Arizona. I get I have no field.
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: This line has it moved. I don't see anything in
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: the numbers. I don't want to do it.
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: No, it's fair.
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: I like Arizona in the sense that to me, they've
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: been the more consistent team offensively, I think they know
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: exactly what the identity is. Detroit just feels lost. I mean,
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: this is the perfect get right spot for Detroit. That's
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: why I'm not pounding the table for this one. But
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: I love Arizona. Pull the upset off here. It's just
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: if they have the ball. Last, I have confidence in
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: Kyler Murray in this offense right now that he does
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: have the weapons, and if they get a lead even
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: more so like that James Connor a run attack with
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: Kyler Good. Yeah, it's pretty damn good. So my only hesitation,
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: which I feel like you have the same, is this
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: Arizona defense might be absolutely awful. And yeah they beat
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: up on a Rams team that had their third stringers
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: on the left tackles position. Yeah, now they have the
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: best offensive line of football coming in in a get
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: right spot.
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: So totally understand your hesitation. Shed.
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: Obviously, if this was three and a half, I think
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: I'd be able to talk into this for contests right now.
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: I checked those two and a half in contest, I
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: just me and you both are like, h we don't
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: need to put that one in.
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: No, definitely not Atlanta, Kansas City. We're definitely going to
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: play Atlanta at three and a half. That was your
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: Simon says the Atlanta Falcons were typified by the players
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: who consistently made.
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: The big play.
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: Look, it's been getting a ton of money on the
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: on the Falcon side. It moved from four and a
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: half really off of the Monday night game. But I
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: think the Chiefs run defense is in trouble. I think
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: that the Falcons offensive line is the best rush offensive
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: line in the NFL, especially interior on the right side.
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: I think we saw what they could do when Bijon
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: is the primary focal point against the Eagles. I think
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs and you said this best, like, they're still
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: figuring out who they are and this is when you
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: this is when you get them, and now Pacheco being out,
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: they still really don't know who they are. Offensively, they
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: Travis Kelsey hasn't been involved. They have one down that
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: downfield thread and ma Shei Rice. We don't know what
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: Xavier Worthy is yet. Patrick Mahomes hasn't been that good. No, yeah,
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: Atlanta go. Simon says it's him.
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's my biggest reason, right is Mahomes factor. I
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: just don't think he's looked right. I don't think it's
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: getting any better in this spot here. I still think
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: he just doesn't feel comfortable right now with that. They
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: don't know who their left tackle is and that's a
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: big deal. And obviously, you know, defensively, Chad just touched
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: on it, there are some gaping holes in this defense
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: that can be exploited and perfect run blocking scheme here
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: for this Atlanta team to exploit it. So my only
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: hesitation at all is still Kirk Cousins as well as
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: he did against the Eagles. We saw the Eagles had
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: no pass rush, right, it was only up the middle
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: they had any type of pass rush, and the veteran
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins was able to step around it. We never
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: really saw what he had to do when he was
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: forced outside the pockets. So that, to me is the
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: only fear with this. Everything else, I love the number,
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: love the spot team. Sunday night Primetime. Every Joe Schmo
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: is gonna be going in there throwing the chiefs and
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: at the end of the day on their parlay or
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: their teaser ticket.
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: So my only hope was this would go up. But
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: the reason I made it, Simon says, was, you know,
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: I talked to a couple of really wise, sharp guys
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: and they were just like, now I'm gonna I'm gonna
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: hammer this Atlanta line. This is gonna keep going down.
• 46:19
  Speaker 3: It hasn't. Right, There's been enough public money to keep
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: this up.
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: Like I'm looking right now, it's over seventy five percent
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: of the bets, eighty percent of the money at a
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: couple of books right now is on this Chiefs team.
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: So that makes sense, right, The more public books are
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: getting hammered on the chief line while the sharper books
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: are getting a ton of a land of money. So
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: I'm glad you come around on it. I know that
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: it probably helped that Nick had the landa here in
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: the luck ranking, so he did by the way that
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: he came around on a chef.
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: And this morning, you know, I told you that I
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: bet with a couple of friends. Yeah, and one of
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: them saw me put Atlanta in the action app. My buddy, Josh,
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: and you've been hammering me this morning. I'm not going
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: to question your judgment as the chief investment officer of
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: our fund, but why are we betting Atlanta plus three
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: and a half against Kent City Chiefs? And then I
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: went to this explanation.
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: I'll say, text back long term winner mathematically, this is
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: this is we always talk about.
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: This is where you want to fade mahome number.
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: And by the way I did, I'm like, look, historically
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: you were going to win money if you fade Patrick
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: Mahomes is more than a three point favorite. But then
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: there's all these other things. So We've done it. It's
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: happening at Lanta, is in lock it in it in
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: the Jags. I'm glad you're coming around on the Jags
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: the way I did. Oh it's tough, it's but you're
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: with me. You're with me because twenty it all or no?
• 47:46
  Speaker 3: Have you watched the Jags all twenty two at all?
• 47:48
  Speaker 4: Or no?
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: I have not watched the Jags.
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: Oh my god.
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, I know, Eva keeps telling us that fair
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence in the second half, even their game script
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: to start the game.
• 47:58
  Speaker 3: All of it was just so bad.
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: So this makes me feel sicker than your Broncos bet
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: no way. Yeah, it could all be really bad right
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: now for Jacksonville, brother, but it's early in the year.
• 48:11
  Speaker 3: I try not to react because I always say this.
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: These first four weeks I kind of treat as a preseason.
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: Same with the players.
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: Trevor had moments and he has guys open. He just
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: was sailing passes. It was really it was really bizarre.
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: So this, though, is the classic spot where the Bills
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: let let down everybody. Right, They're on like eleven days
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: rest after a huge divisional win on the road. That's
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: why I'm getting so behind the check because it does
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: feel like another game where it's like same with that Eagles, Right,
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: we talked about that Eagles Houston two team teaser. Who
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: is going to lose it? This feels like the same spot, right,
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: Who's gonna break this Monday Night Cincinnati Bill's teaser. I
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: just can't see the Bengals losing and going oh to
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: three against Washington. With the Bills dropping this game to
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: an zero to two Jaguars team, I can I can
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: see him just match up wise, there are things they
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: can do defensively, right, they have the athletic dns that
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: can give Josh Allen issues, and Josh Allen's been playing
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: like the MVP.
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone? Goodness,
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: there's no feel, no way. That's the hesitation for me.
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: But you know, we both agreed on the Bills have
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: had such injuries to their defense, there are ways to
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: attack this team. So if Trevor Lawrence can't get right here,
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: me and Chad might add into the list. Right if guys,
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: we're just not gonna betting for a little while. So
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: this is definitely a show to me, Trevor Lawrence. We're
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: playing the number. You can still get five five and
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: a half in a couple of books. I love that
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: this is still above four to four and a half,
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: So I'll take that number.
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: Check Bill's six luckiest team in the NFL Jacks twenty
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: ninth or fourth most unlucky. They actually averaged a yard
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: and a half more than the Browns last week. The
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: Browns got lucky, went three for three on fourth down.
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: The Jags went one to four in the red zone.
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: We just have to believe it's at some point some
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: of this goes the other way. Either Trevor Lawrence, I.
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: Mean, it's been what a year and a half now
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: a year?
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: Been a year. Yeah, Like Trevor Lawrence and we talked
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: about Barnwell's column. Bill Barnwell from ESPN had a great
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: summary of Trevor Lawrence's challenges in the quick passing game,
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: meeting when he's got to get the ball off less
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: than two and a half seconds. He has not been good,
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: and he has not been good in the red zone,
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: and this team has been in the red zone. Some
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: of that has to eventually regress the other way. It
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: will be this week against the Buffalo Bills. Western New
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: York's finest shout out Matt Mitchell. All right, turning good
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: weekends into great weekends. It's time for the money line parlay.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: Our boosted underdog money line parlay. Our sponsor Bet three
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: six ' five gives our underdog money line parlay an
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• 51:02
  Speaker 1: that highlighted on their site. Are week three boosted Underdog Parlay?
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: In deference to my bff, Simon Hunter, we are going
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: with the Arizona Cardinals and the Minnesota Vikings. Both games
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: are eligible for Bet three six five's early payout promo,
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: where your money line pick gets marked as a win
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: if they take a seventeen point lead, even if they
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: go on to blow the game and lose. You want
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  Speaker 1: to bet this better at Bet three six five. All right,
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: let's do our money line underdog round Robin.
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: There will come up Heayday, hallelu yo, wanna pay day?
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: There will come up payday someday, someday there.
• 51:45
  Speaker 4: I will come up Heayday, Halla, lou yo, wanna payday, Hi,
• 51:49
  Speaker 4: I will come up payday someday.
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: Obviously, we're doing Minnesota in Arizona for.
• 51:56
  Speaker 3: The big dog. I was almost there with you. In
• 51:59
  Speaker 3: the Broncos by think we gotta go Giants, right, Yeah,
• 52:02
  Speaker 3: like they feel like the more realistic, most veteran team
• 52:05
  Speaker 3: that could pull off that upset. Let's let's get Atlanta
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: in there.
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good idea. Minnesota, Arizona, Giants, Atlanta.
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: Now do you believe in?
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: Do you believe in the Jaguars? Or should we get
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: real sick and go with our Carolina Panthers.
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: I mean we could do Carolina, we could do Denver.
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: Let's go with Panthers because I'm not going to make
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: this one of our five, but I'm sick of I
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: just can't stop bend their money line.
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: You're let's go Panthers.
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: You are disgusting. This whole show is disgusting.
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: I love that. I love that five.
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know do we have to talk about Survivor.
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: I don't even want to bring it up.
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: I'm back in.
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: I bought into a one just so I can keep
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: it going because I did feel bad. Shockingly people, we
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: have one People's Survivor contest. Last year we had a
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: couple of people win thanks to me and Chad not
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: being total idiots to start the season. For me, what
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: I'm personally doing if you didn't use it yet, I
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: am going Cincy if you had used them. I'm gonna
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: go forty nine Ers, like the forty nine ers against
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: this Rams team. This RAMS team might be shutting it
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: down pretty soon, so I'm gonna take take the whatever
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: it is minus three point fifty five.
• 53:17
  Speaker 3: Now it's up to this forty nine Ers team to
• 53:20
  Speaker 3: win out right in that game. So my two Cincinnati
• 53:23
  Speaker 3: the forty nine Ers.
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: Scoot roulette. Last week you had the Cowboys minus three.
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: I had the Broncos plus two and a half. But
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: in uh the Rollover World Believe in week one, you
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: had Philadelphia minus two and a half and I had
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: Tennessee plus four. So you get to choose first again.
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: All right, keep it simple, stupid, I'm gonna go Lamar Ravens.
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: I just can't see them start zero for three, so
• 53:50
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna take the minus one.
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: Wow. Then I think I will go with the Miami Dolphins.
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: I'm just I'm putting it in the script's official. I'm
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: taking the Miami Dolphins. Evan Abrams saved me from myself.
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: Director of research man meed some final words to make
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: us feel good about something. The last word with Evan Abrams.
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: We're finished talking.
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: Just one fun note, So you talked about Mahomes not
• 54:20
  Speaker 4: being the same type of quarterbacks. Of thirty two quarterbacks
• 54:23
  Speaker 4: this year, average depth of target, the lowest is Jayden Daniels,
• 54:27
  Speaker 4: second lowest is Mahomes. It's five point oh for Mahomes.
• 54:31
  Speaker 4: For reference, rookie year was nine point one, twenty twenty
• 54:34
  Speaker 4: two was seven point four. It's five this year.
• 54:37
  Speaker 3: So two.
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: It's just ridiculous how a different quarterback he's been. And
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: then to answer your question, Simon before two to zero
• 54:44
  Speaker 4: at home, oh and two on the road. When you're
• 54:46
  Speaker 4: at home in that week three last twenty years, the
• 54:49
  Speaker 4: average line is seven point six. So yeah, when you're
• 54:53
  Speaker 4: talking about Denver, Jacksonville, those types of games, the line
• 54:56
  Speaker 4: probably should be a little bit higher for what it's worth.
• 54:57
  Speaker 4: So you're right, all right into spiel. So, as John
• 55:00
  Speaker 4: Harbass said this week, the NFL season is a race
• 55:03
  Speaker 4: to improve, and that is exactly what the Panthers are
• 55:06
  Speaker 4: trying to do. So we're gonna talk to Carolina right now.
• 55:09
  Speaker 4: So the Panthers have gotten blown out twice to start
• 55:12
  Speaker 4: the season. Over the last thirty five years, we've seen
• 55:14
  Speaker 4: thirty nine teams lose by two touchdowns or more in
• 55:17
  Speaker 4: weeks one and two. Those teams in Week three are
• 55:19
  Speaker 4: twenty five, thirteen and one against the spread sixty six percent.
• 55:23
  Speaker 4: But to me, there's just way more than that because
• 55:25
  Speaker 4: of the Bryce thing, right, So I think it's worth
• 55:27
  Speaker 4: touching on that. Since twenty twenty two, there have been
• 55:29
  Speaker 4: thirty nine quarterbacks with at least five hundred total plays.
• 55:33
  Speaker 4: Dalton and Bryce are on the list in terms of
• 55:35
  Speaker 4: EPA per play, which is just expected points added. Bryce
• 55:39
  Speaker 4: is dead effing last. Andy Dalton is twenty first in
• 55:43
  Speaker 4: terms of success rate, which is simply yards gained depending
• 55:48
  Speaker 4: on what down it is, got to gain more yards
• 55:50
  Speaker 4: as the downs go by. Bryce Young dead effing last.
• 55:54
  Speaker 4: Andy Dalton is actually eleventh on that list. So call
• 55:57
  Speaker 4: all the toy story fans. Andy's back. All right, Let's
• 56:02
  Speaker 4: talk about the Jaguars for a second. So Josh Allen
• 56:05
  Speaker 4: has closed as a favorite of four points or more
• 56:07
  Speaker 4: twenty six times over the last three full seasons. Bills
• 56:10
  Speaker 4: are eight seventeen and one against the spread in those games.
• 56:14
  Speaker 4: Of the forty six quarterbacks to close over four points
• 56:16
  Speaker 4: in any game in that span, that is the single
• 56:18
  Speaker 4: worst ats mark, so understand where you guys are coming
• 56:21
  Speaker 4: from on the Jags. Now to talk about one bonus
• 56:24
  Speaker 4: nugget with the Jaguars, which I literally found last night.
• 56:27
  Speaker 4: Doug Peterson is actually thirteen and three against the spread
• 56:30
  Speaker 4: as a dog at night, best of one hundred and
• 56:32
  Speaker 4: thirty six coaches last twenty years. And he's actually three
• 56:35
  Speaker 4: and one against the number with Lawrence, So decent spot there.
• 56:39
  Speaker 4: And then I had to use this one. So here
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: are five random quarterbacks. JP Lossman, Patrick Ramsey, Kevin Cobb,
• 56:47
  Speaker 4: Dennis Dixon, and Kenny Pickett. What do they all have
• 56:50
  Speaker 4: in common? They all were pretty terrible, but they're all
• 56:53
  Speaker 4: above five hundred against the spread in their careers. Sometimes
• 56:56
  Speaker 4: you just have to bet really bad quarterbacks. Now we
• 56:59
  Speaker 4: talk about the Miami Dolphins, it's simply gonna give you
• 57:02
  Speaker 4: one stat.
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: Backup.
• 57:03
  Speaker 4: QB's catching four points or more in their first start
• 57:06
  Speaker 4: for a team. Two and oh this season, justin Fields
• 57:09
  Speaker 4: week one, Malik Willison week two. Now we get Skylar Thompson.
• 57:12
  Speaker 4: But those quarterbacks eighty three, fifty eight and two fifty
• 57:17
  Speaker 4: nine percent twenty thirteen, just hold your nose and do
• 57:21
  Speaker 4: what you gotta do. Skylar Thompson's one and two ATS career.
• 57:24
  Speaker 3: Time to get even.
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: I'm so in on the Jaguars. I don't need to be.
• 57:28
  Speaker 3: Lud Evn's gotta be fired up. I wasn't as much,
• 57:30
  Speaker 3: but Evans Evan's got.
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: I'm way too far deep on the Jaguars at not
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: even the best number on the boy, I'm.
• 57:36
  Speaker 3: Already looking forward to us sweating out of Landa and
• 57:38
  Speaker 3: the Jags.
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, we're gonna have miserable Sunday and Monday nights,
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: No the best terrible. As a reminder of the Favorites
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• 58:43
  Speaker 1: the latest and greatest in NFL Week three. Some you
• 58:47
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• 58:50
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