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Is The Bitcoin Winter Over? | Why a Violent Market Crash Could Already be in Motion! | Bitcoin Simply · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Is the Bitcoin bottom in? Are we about to experience
• 0:02
  another shakeout? How much longer do you think
• 0:04
  we're going to be in this winter for?
• 0:06
  I. Think the crypto winner is going
• 0:08
  to, it's either ended already or it's going to.
• 0:12
  The latest is April, so I think we're almost through the winter.
• 0:16
  I completely disagree with Tom Lee and I'm happy to be wrong,
• 0:19
  but if you zoom out and look at what's actually going on in
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  markets right now, I don't see a breakout anywhere.
• 0:24
  Insight. I see turbulence.
• 0:25
  I see the forced selling of gold.
• 0:27
  I see stress fractures happening in a already broken system.
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  Japan, one of the most important players in global debt markets,
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  is showing weakness. Turkey just had one of its
• 0:35
  largest gold sell offs in history.
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  And Iran, there's more reports of financial seizures in
• 0:40
  censorship. There's estimates that 6 to 8%
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  of all Bitcoin mining is happening there right now.
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  Because when your money gets cut off, you look for something
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  unsensible. So no, I don't think the
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  turbulence is over. But here's the twist.
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  That's exactly why Bitcoin wins, because the current system can't
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  let the market crash. It's too indebted to
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  financialize into politically captured.
• 0:59
  So today I'm going to break down why Tom Lee's prediction of the
• 1:01
  bottom being in is wrong, why we probably get one or two more
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  violent shakeouts, and why every crack in the system is pointing
• 1:08
  towards the long term winner. Bitcoin.
• 1:10
  This is Dante Coca Bitcoin simply let's go.
• 1:17
  What's up y'all? Happy Sunday, just got back from
• 1:19
  church, have a Pinewood Derby race to go to.
• 1:21
  But I'm going to give you what's going down to financial markets
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  right now. First things first, Tom Lee is
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  doing what Tom Lee does. We see a little bit of green and
• 1:27
  now the market is turning bullish.
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  I completely disagree and look, I understand the bullish case.
• 1:33
  This is simply Bitcoin. But saying we're in the all
• 1:35
  clear right now is a little bit premature.
• 1:37
  Stress in the markets doesn't create smooth rallies.
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  It creates more volatility and more short term pain.
• 1:43
  Let's start with Iran. This war is far from over.
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  Saudi Arabia is routing oil through Fujairah, and as they've
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  been doing that, Fujairah has been attacked 7 or more times
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  this week. Supply chains will continue to
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  be stressed and we haven't seen even the beginnings of inflation
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  from what's going on. And in the middle of that, you
• 2:00
  get reports that Saudi Arabia is freezing Iran's financial asset
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  and all residency permits are being revoked despite 99 year
• 2:07
  protections. Sounds like hostile territory to
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  me. And when that happens, people
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  look for a way out. And that's why 6 to 8% of all
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  hashing going on in the world, it's coming from Iran.
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  Feels like Iran, for example, last five years they've been
• 2:21
  using Bitcoin mining as a way to get around sanctions.
• 2:24
  So there was they almost hit about 6 to 8% of global mining.
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  If you look at, you know, chain analysis and chain links data
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  was related to was global mining, about 6 to 8% of that
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  was was Iran and almost about 70% of the Iranian miners were
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  owned by the IRGC. So they were using mining as a
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  way of getting around sanctions for a while, right?
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  Think about that. When a nation gets squeezed,
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  when the capital gets trapped, they turn to Bitcoin.
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  That isn't a sign of smooth sailing.
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  That's a sign of stress and more stress to come.
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  War creates volatility and it creates panics and it creates
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  more dislocations and more sell offs.
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  Not smooth sailing. Now here's where the true test
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  comes. Because if we are in an actual
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  crisis, well then gold should be the safe haven.
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  But gold is growing weakness right now.
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  Look at Turkey. It has a volatile currency,
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  inflation pressure. And if there was any place that
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  would be using gold to defend its own Pagan in themselves, it
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  would be Turkey. But they just have one of the
• 3:18
  largest gold sell offs in its history.
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  Their gold reserves dropped 50 tons last week, their largest
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  sell off since 2018. That should tell you something.
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  Gold is supposed to be the safe haven.
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  And that tells me that there's real turbulence in the market
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  right now. And then there's Japan.
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  Japan is one of the core pillars in global debt markets.
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  And if they start to unwind their U.S.
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  Treasuries, well, lookout below. They've suppressed rates,
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  they've implemented yield curve control, and they've tried to
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  monetize their debt in multiple ways.
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  In an interview with the ex head of central banking for the Bank
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  of Japan, Kuroda says that their market should raise rates.
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  This isn't a small story because this means the unwind of the
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  global carry trade, which props up stocks in markets all across
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  the world. And professional investors, when
• 4:00
  things tend to get more risky, they don't pile in.
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  And right now professional investors, hedge funds, private
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  equity firms are hitting the exits.
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  Investors have sold $13.5 billion worth of equities in
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  stocks in the last four weeks. This is the fourth largest since
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  the great financial crisis. This isn't just some blip.
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  So despite what's happening with Bitcoin, and while it's a sure
• 4:19
  fire asset, there's a lots of mines in the minefield.
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  And with all that being said, I don't disagree with Tom Lee on
• 4:24
  this point. The bigger story is still intact
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  and actually it's getting stronger because the current
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  system is trapped to happen. If the value for money falls and
• 4:32
  falls 4 or 5% a year, that's inflation both 4 or 5% a year.
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  And the economic growth has been about 2% a year.
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  So it's about 7% a year growth and that means everything double
• 4:43
  s in 10 years. The value of the money falls in
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  half every 15 years. So you got to make twice what
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  you're making today in 15 years to stay even.
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  And so stock market, you know, so bitcoins been amazing.
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  Obviously it cannot allow for a real collapse.
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  Not politically, not financially, not structurally.
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  Because if history is any guide, they will always choose the
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  basement. That's the game.
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  There's Main Street and there's Wall Street.
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  Main Street will continue to struggle, higher costs, asset
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  inflation, currency, the basement housing being
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  unaffordable. But Wall Street.
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  Wall Street gets protected because the system is built
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  around assets, so assets can never truly collapse.
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  There is no other way but for the the Fed and the Treasury to
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  support all of these risk assets.
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  They they have to support them because the stock market is so
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  intimately, it is ingrained in our economy now.
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  And so you can't have the stock market obliterated without
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  having a recession or at least a recession or maybe a deep
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  recession. And they all know this.
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  And by the way, all the congressmen and senators,
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  they're all invested in the stock market too.
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  They want, they want it to go up.
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  You know, they want this to go up, too.
• 5:59
  Yeah, invested. Right.
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  And so, you know, there there is the people that DC has a a
• 6:08
  deeply vested interest in positive stock market activity.
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  And so, and that goes all the way from Congress all the way
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  through the Fed and the Treasury.
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  And they understand this, like Dave said, though the Fed, there
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  may be very little they can do with this spike in energy
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  prices. And it, it blows people's mind
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  that we are completely independent or we could be, but
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  we just with, with the just, there's just so much noise and
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  activism in this country that we've, we've made it more
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  difficult for us to be independent on energy.
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  And so we, we can't do the things that everybody says we
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  can do. And that is part of the issue.
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  And so you're seeing these oil prices really affect everything
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  across the globe, including the United States.
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  And that, and, and that's what people are positioning for.
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  They're positioning for uncertainty and risk.
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  And when you then you get the whipsaw of, oh, I'm just
• 7:06
  kidding, you know, we're going to be in peace talks now.
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  Like you just pulled up that the, the one statement after
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  another. The chronology of that is just
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  mind boggling. And markets hate that.
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  And they're, they're whipping around trying to figure out
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  where to put capital. And the, if you're putting
• 7:25
  capital in short term treasuries, you're just
• 7:27
  admitting that you're going to lose a little bit of purchasing
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  power over the, the next 6-12 months because inflation is
• 7:35
  going to be higher than what you're going to get there.
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  And so in real inflation, not the what we're reporting on CPI,
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  but actual real inflation of goods and services.
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  And so that you're, you're just watching real time people trying
• 7:48
  to find pockets where they can hide, but there's no hiding
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  place. There is literally no hiding
• 7:54
  place except cash. If you're sitting in cash, you
• 7:57
  are the exit liquidity. The market is the economy.
• 8:00
  Retirements are tied to it, pensions are tied to it,
• 8:03
  political incentives are tied to it, which means the system will
• 8:06
  continue to do what it always does to protect itself.
• 8:08
  Print D base inflate. Maybe not in a straight line,
• 8:11
  maybe not all at once, but that's the general direction,
• 8:14
  and that's why we Bitcoin. And that's why if you're smart,
• 8:16
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  And if you're newer to Bitcoin, well, just start stacking.
• 8:49
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  not to get a coach and to own your own sovereignty, own your
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• 9:13
  All right, I usually don't do this, but rug pull Raul might
• 9:17
  accidentally be right right now. Once you understand that, you
• 9:20
  understand what they discovered in 2008 is when you print money,
• 9:24
  you load the denominator and the price of collateral goes up.
• 9:27
  That's why the world recovered after 2008.
• 9:30
  And so they've learnt that one trick is liquidity Trump's
• 9:33
  everything. So the moment you start to have
• 9:35
  problems by, let's say the S&P starts falling more than 25%,
• 9:40
  well, what happens immediately liquidity comes back.
• 9:43
  And when liquidity comes back, you lower the denominator, the
• 9:45
  asset prices go. Recessions normally happen when
• 9:48
  the collateral starts falling and everyone starts calling on
• 9:51
  it, but they don't allow that to happen in a very indebted world.
• 9:55
  The best way is avoid the huge collapse by debasing currency 8%
• 10:00
  a year. It's like it's a put option
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  basically that we all pay for the system not to implode.
• 10:07
  That's the plan. There is no austerity.
• 10:09
  There is no discipline. There is no reset through pain
• 10:12
  or through learning from your past mistakes.
• 10:14
  They're simply debasement at a rate of eight to 10% a year,
• 10:17
  which is what the S&P 500 goes up.
• 10:19
  There's a great conversation between Tad Smith where he
• 10:22
  finally realized that assets were not going up or growing 8
• 10:26
  to 10% a year, but the currency was being debated.
• 10:28
  That amount. They melted away slowly,
• 10:31
  quietly, repeatedly. We've all heard this story and
• 10:33
  that's why the sell offs, the panics during times of
• 10:36
  turbulence, during times of war, during times of instability are
• 10:40
  a gift. I don't need to tell you new
• 10:41
  things or some fancy thing. I need to repeat the things that
• 10:45
  you should already know and help to give you the courage and
• 10:47
  conviction to consistently do it in the face of what you're
• 10:50
  seeing in front of you. That's why you come to this
• 10:53
  show. That's the more story and
• 10:55
  there's going to be more turbulence.
• 10:56
  The war, the central banks, the gold sell offs are all telling
• 11:00
  me one thing. And if Japan ends up selling
• 11:02
  U.S. Treasuries, well, look out
• 11:04
  below. That's an opportunity for you to
• 11:06
  stack more Bitcoin, not to get worried and not to paint it.
• 11:09
  Bitcoin isn't just a trade, it's the answer to the big problem
• 11:12
  that our system has. So are you looking for a
• 11:15
  solution or are you looking for a short term pain solver?
• 11:18
  You choose. This is Dante Coke with Bitcoin
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• 11:49
  today. Hope you all could get through
• 11:51
  the episode with the kids and everybody screaming in the
• 11:53
  background. But I wanted to give you my
• 11:54
  perspective on what's going down in the markets and why you
• 11:56
  shouldn't panic. I don't think the bottom is in.