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Tone Vays | Bitcoin Bear Market is Over | Simply Bitcoin IRL · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:04
  Yo, how's everyone doing? Welcome to another episode of
• 0:08
  Simply Bitcoin IRL. Today we have a very special
• 0:11
  guest and also I consider him his friend as well.
• 0:15
  We have the one, the only the legendary tone Vase.
• 0:18
  Before bring them on stage, I want to give a shout out to the
• 0:21
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  today. All right, no more delay.
• 0:33
  Let's bring up the one, the only legendary tone vase.
• 0:38
  How you doing, Tone? Hey.
• 0:40
  Nico, how are you? Hope all is good.
• 0:43
  Yeah. How's how's life?
• 0:45
  Where? Where are you these days 'cause
• 0:46
  you're you're globetrotter. Yeah.
• 0:49
  Well, I was out in Dubai for about 3 weeks hosting the
• 0:54
  Financial Summit and speaking at like 5 different conferences out
• 0:58
  there. October is really big in Dubai
• 1:00
  for God knows how many ship coin events.
• 1:04
  Hopefully some Bitcoin events will be heading that way soon.
• 1:07
  At the moment I I'm in New York and I'm heading back to my home
• 1:11
  in Panama. Tomorrow.
• 1:14
  Actually, no, wait, Tomorrow I'll be in Miami for one night
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  and then I'll. I'm heading to Panama the next
• 1:21
  day, so. OK, OK, cool.
• 1:23
  Yeah. I I you.
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  I was lucky enough you invited me to Panama and it's absolutely
• 1:29
  incredible down there. I I, I highly recommend anyone
• 1:32
  to make that that trek, that journey.
• 1:35
  It's, I could see it becoming a citadel.
• 1:40
  Yeah. Well, we got a couple of
• 1:41
  brewing. I think El Salvador will be a
• 1:43
  citadel a little earlier. It'll take a while for Panama to
• 1:46
  adopt Bitcoin, mostly because it's on the US dollar.
• 1:50
  So it's fairly stable. Yeah.
• 1:53
  Yeah, that's true. Anyways, so let's talk a little
• 1:56
  bit about your trip to Dubai. I've I had the pleasure of going
• 2:00
  to one of these, your financial summits, the one in Dominican
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  Republic. Unfortunately, I was working, so
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  I didn't get to, I didn't get a chance to enjoy a lot of the
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  things, but but it was absolutely beautiful.
• 2:15
  The hotel, my room was on the beach, it was on the water,
• 2:19
  there was poker nights. It was like educational type of
• 2:22
  stuff like that. So how was the one in Dubai?
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  And what is the Financial summit for anyone who doesn't know?
• 2:28
  Yeah. So the one in Dubai was very
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  similar to the one you attended over in Dominican Republic after
• 2:35
  Dominican Republic we did. We did one out in Bali and now
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  we've done one in the in Dubai. Technically it's Russell Kaiman,
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  not Dubai. You still fly into the Dubai
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  airport. But Russell Kaima is another
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  emirate like Abu Dhabi, Dubai. There's Sharjah, there's seven
• 2:53
  of them, the seven Emirates. We were in the Russell Kaima,
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  which is out in the desert, beautiful location.
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  I, you know, half the job is picking the right venue in the
• 3:03
  right hotel, the financial summit.
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  It's kind of like a retreat for traders and money managers,
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  along with other financial professionals, entrepreneurs,
• 3:14
  financial engineers. Is designed for the higher net
• 3:18
  worth crowd. It is a $9000 event, but it
• 3:22
  includes an insanely high end room.
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  Usually it's your own villa. Dominican Republic was an
• 3:30
  exception because we rented a castle that had like 60 rooms in
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  it. Some of those rooms were like
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  ridiculous multi bedroom suites and some of those rooms were a
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  little more regular rooms and it's usually.
• 3:46
  Between four or five nights you get a bunch of financial people
• 3:49
  there to discuss trading and investing during the day.
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  Our morning sessions are very health focused on longevity and
• 3:59
  just basically how to live longer.
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  It's mostly longevity based and mindset based.
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  And evenings are just fun, you know, We have a trading contest.
• 4:08
  We play some poker. You know Dr. dot CZ Bali dot CZ
• 4:13
  when you were in, sorry, Dominican Republic is easy and
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  Bali is easy. When you're in Dubai or other
• 4:20
  places, poker's a little bit harder.
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  Our next stop is the Maldives. The next financial summit is in
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  the Maldives. That one should sell out
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  unreasonably quick. So if you ever wanted to go to
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  the Maldives, that's your shot to join us at the financial
• 4:35
  summit. But it's over a year away.
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  Yeah, man, I I can't recommend them enough.
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  Definitely great time I had in Dominican Republic.
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  So clown world is accelerating, man.
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  Things are getting crazy, whether that's, you know, the
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  political environment here in the United States, you know that
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  you have the election coming up in 2024, but also it seems like
• 4:58
  just financial markets, just the geopolitical situation
• 5:02
  altogether. What's your take on that?
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  Specifically, I, I, I want to mention this to you and you're
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  Bitcoin OG, you've been here for a while.
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  How Elizabeth Warren used the fake Wall Street Journal article
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  to write a letter to the White House.
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  And then that led to the White House to put pressure on the
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  Treasury, and then that led to these crazy Finsen regulations
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  that would basically make it a requirement that every single
• 5:29
  Bitcoin transaction would have to be reported to the Finsen.
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  What's your take on all that? I mean, we we found out after
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  the fact that the Wall Street Journal article was completely
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  misrepresented, completely misrepresented the data.
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  So what's your take on all that? I mean, does it surprise?
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  You at all standard, standard government operating procedure.
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  They release, you know, they put out garbage and then they used
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  out garbage to make more tyrannical laws.
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  That's basically, that's the playbook.
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  This is. Not the first time, not the last
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  time. Every department works like
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  that. The Federal Reserve does the
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  same thing. They all do.
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  The Federal Reserve will come up with a statement saying we're
• 6:13
  planning to raise rates, and if the market panics, they're going
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  to come back and say, whoa, whoa, we didn't mean it.
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  We're just thinking about thinking about raising rates.
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  Don't panic. And if the market doesn't panic,
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  they're going to go, Oh yeah, hey, no one's panicking, so
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  we're going to raise rates. It's the same thing here.
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  They release, you know, a bunch of nonsense that the government
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  will use to their advantage. This is why the United States is
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  collapsing. This is why the United States is
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  going to collapse. I don't think reversing the ship
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  is possible, and it doesn't matter.
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  I no longer care what the government does when it comes to
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  Bitcoin. It's too big to stop.
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  It is the definition of too big to fail.
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  But it's not even too big to fail.
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  It's too important to fail. Nothing else is important.
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  This is important and it doesn't matter what the government does.
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  The more tyrannical they get against Bitcoin, the more it
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  will thrive. So it doesn't matter what they
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  want to do is actually impossible.
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  You're not going to assign, you know, identifications to Bitcoin
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  transactions and the moment this stuff is needed, you know
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  they'll be full blown privacy. We have full blown privacy and
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  Bitcoin transactions. Nobody uses it because it's not
• 7:27
  necessary. It's not important.
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  When it becomes important, everyone's going to use it.
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  The liquid side chain, which I think I'm the only person that
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  continues to promote the liquid side chain because every
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  transaction inside the liquid side chain is completely
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  anonymous and people don't want to use it and then they complain
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  why Bitcoin transactions are not anonymous, like you have options
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  and it doesn't matter. They can't stop it.
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  It's too important to stop it. It's it's going to be with us
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  and I remain on record for since the election of 2020.
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  I'm not going to say the type of election it wasn't 2020 starts
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  with the letter F election of 2020.
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  Since that day I said that the United States has at the most 10
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  years to survive as a single nation and and that's it.
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  And then all of these laws just go away.
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  They just disappear because the United States will not be able
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  to enforce them and Bitcoin will just thrive.
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  It's going to be incredible. Yeah.
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  And and I have a very, very similar feeling to that.
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  I think me and you went without getting to mention the details
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  because YouTube doesn't like these types of conversations
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  with regarding to certain elections.
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  But yeah, me and you had a very long discussion about this.
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  You originally come from the, you know, the Soviet Union or
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  the previous Soviet Union. I originally come from
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  Venezuela, countries that followed a very, very similar
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  path to put it lightly and you know the patterns are definitely
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  striking. Now tone, I'll, I'll tell you
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  this what's your take on the interests of BlackRock?
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  Because it's like yes, the the United States.
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  I I completely agree I I don't like the direction that it's
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  heading. It's incredibly obvious.
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  But what's your take on these powerful institutions like
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  BlackRock. It looks like they're getting
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  into Bitcoin, and we all know that BlackRock basically owns
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  the US government. Do you think that would change
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  anything in terms of the hostility coming from the
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  current administration? Not really.
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  BlackRock is more of a capitalistic company than the US
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  federal government. So BlackRock being in charge of
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  the federal government, I mean they use the federal government
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  to enforce they are I guess gigantic portfolio BlackRock.
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  Is taking over everything right? They're becoming the biggest
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  landlord and once again everything falls back to will
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  the United States remain a single one giant, single nation?
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  And I don't believe that it will.
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  So when the United States breaks up into multiple country,
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  multiple countries, what happens to BlackRock?
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  What happens to their control? What happens to their enormous
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  real estate portfolio? They will not have daddy
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  government to enforce. Them being the big landlord of
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  the United States, so BlackRock is going to be in trouble.
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  One company cannot own the world.
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  If it was possible for one company to own the world, the
• 10:31
  West India Company, you know, would have because they have the
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  biggest Navy in an entire planet and that company's long gone.
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  So no company can control the planet.
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  So Blackrock's days are also numbered because they're kind of
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  tied into the United States. So I wouldn't worry too much
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  about it. Now, how much pool they have to
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  to get this Bitcoin ETF first. Now BlackRock owns a subsidiary
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  that is a big ETF company, and I remain on record saying that
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  Gary Gensler will not allow a Bitcoin ETF a spot ETF, on his
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  watch. I know there's supposed to be an
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  announcement this Friday. The market is rallying right
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  now. I think that Gary Gessler is
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  going to turn down the Bitcoin ETF once again this Friday.
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  Maybe in January things could be different, but for now I believe
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  that the ETF is not coming. So let's see where that goes.
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  BlackRock. Hold on, hold on, hold on.
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  You. You buried the lead there
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  because it's a very strong statement, because the general
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  sentiment is that perhaps it doesn't come in 2023, but it
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  will be approved in 2024. You're sticking to your guns and
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  you're saying it's not going to be approved, period.
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  It's not going to be improved with Gary Gensler as the head of
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  the SEC. So that's my view.
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  That's been my view. I mean, prior to Gary Gensler,
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  the the world wasn't ready for a Bitcoin spot ETF, so it wasn't
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  coming under Gary Gensler's watch.
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  I don't believe a Bitcoin spot ETF is coming.
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  They would have to bribe Gary Gensler to give him like a
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  bigger position. Say, hey Gary, approve the
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  Bitcoin ETF and you will be the next Treasury Secretary of the
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  United States taking over for Janet Yellen.
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  So unless there's some kind of deal like that on the table, I
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  don't believe Gary Gensler is going to approve a Bitcoin ETF.
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  Now Gary Gensler can be replaced.
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  The SEC has not exactly been very competent in the last few
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  years. Ripple case is the obvious step
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  there. So once Gary Gessler is
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  replaced, then the new replacement will very likely
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  approve a Bitcoin ETF. So I'm not saying that the
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  Bitcoin ETF is not coming, I'm just saying that Gary Gessler is
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  not going to be the one to do it.
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  So why what? Why is it that Gary Genzer, Why
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  is he so hell bent on not approving this?
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  Why does Why is Gary Genzer specifically against the Bitcoin
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  Spot ETF? So my view was is that Gary
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  Gensler is the smartest guy in the room when it comes to
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  understanding Bitcoin and shit coins.
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  He's as smart as us. He knows it super well.
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  He put a course on this at MIT. He was the CFTC chair when you
• 13:41
  know he's been, he's been up to his neck in crypto for a long
• 13:47
  time. He knows it really well and I
• 13:50
  think that he understands the risks that come with the Bitcoin
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  ETF. And most importantly, he knows
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  that the moment he approves, the moment he approves 01 second.
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  Sorry. At the moment he approves a
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  Bitcoin spot ETF, he's going to get 1000 applications for every
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  shit coin that has ever existed in the history of crypto.
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  He's going to get a bit connect ETF application, right?
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  And he will have a very hard time denying a bit connect ETF
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  application after he approves a Bitcoin spot ETF.
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  Like what do you do about Ethereum Spot ETF?
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  What do you do about a Ripple Spot ETF?
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  How do you deny those after you approve a Bitcoin ETF?
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  Yeah I mean but but but hold on if if he's if he's very well
• 14:50
  studied and I agree because there was an article that was
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  released I think it was for New York Magazine or something where
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  he clearly made it seem like there's Bitcoin and then there's
• 15:00
  crypto and he he he clearly is aware of what the
• 15:02
  differentiating factors are between the two but I I I'm I
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  just I I guess I'm a bit confused tone where if he knows
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  the difference why couldn't he just approve a Bitcoin spot ETF
• 15:14
  and not a a crypto ETF. Because from a legal
• 15:16
  perspective, he has to justify it, right?
• 15:19
  They they they lost the case against Ripple and they can't
• 15:25
  even file a case against Ethereum.
• 15:28
  Right now Gary Gessler knows that Ethereum was unlicensed on
• 15:31
  registered security. He knows that he thought of
• 15:34
  course about that at MIT, but there's nothing he can do to
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  prove it on paper that Ethereum is an unlicensed on registered
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  security. So on paper, if he approves a
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  Bitcoin spot ETF, he will have 0 justification to deny an
• 15:50
  Ethereum spot ETF. So in a way.
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  By not allowing a Bitcoin spot ETF, he's being a Bitcoin maxi
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  and protecting the financial system from turning into shit
• 16:03
  Coiner. OK, OK, I that's interesting.
• 16:09
  OK, so he you're basically saying that Gary Genzer is not
• 16:14
  delaying the spot Bitcoin ETF for because of political
• 16:18
  pressure coming from the Biden administration.
• 16:21
  You're saying that he's delaying it because if he approves it, it
• 16:25
  will open Pandora's box for shit coin ETFs to be approved.
• 16:30
  Correct. Interesting.
• 16:33
  OK, Wow. That's the first time I've heard
• 16:36
  that from anyone, so I'm still taking it in.
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  Anyways tone. So a lot of other things to kind
• 16:44
  of change the pivot the conversation a little bit.
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  A lot of things are happening in terms of the stock market.
• 16:51
  It still hasn't really, it still hasn't reached all time highs.
• 16:54
  I think the SNP, even though it did make a bit of a recovery.
• 16:59
  There's the narrative that the recession is coming in 2024.
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  Do you still believe that there's a recession on the
• 17:09
  horizon? Do you believe that the Federal
• 17:11
  Reserve pulled off the so-called soft landing or there's this
• 17:15
  other narrative that there's there's there's not going to be
• 17:17
  a recession altogether. What's your take on that?
• 17:21
  So I've been on the narrative that recession happened in 2022
• 17:27
  and we've already recovered out of the recession, and I'm not
• 17:30
  anticipating another one, so. The word recession is in itself
• 17:35
  tricky. The government used to have a
• 17:39
  definition of a recession, which is 2 consecutive quarters of net
• 17:43
  of negative economic growth. We had that and then the
• 17:47
  government just changed the definition where that's no
• 17:50
  longer the case. Now, 2022 was a very rough year
• 17:54
  for all businesses, and 2023 has been a slightly better year.
• 18:00
  And I think it'll be fine. Now are people going to
• 18:04
  struggle? Yes.
• 18:05
  Have people been struggling? Yes, since 2019 people have been
• 18:09
  struggling. Since the lock downs, since the
• 18:11
  government just got in the way of people's businesses, people
• 18:15
  have been struggling. So the word recession is, it's
• 18:22
  tough to explain these days because we don't know where a
• 18:24
  recession is, but I believe the stock market is going to go to
• 18:27
  new all time highs and. I think the common person on the
• 18:32
  street is still going to struggle, but the stock market
• 18:34
  will go up. So what will be the definition
• 18:38
  of a recession, right? Like, like when we say there's a
• 18:41
  recession, what does that really mean?
• 18:43
  A lot of people assume that means that the stock market
• 18:45
  crashes. That means people lose their
• 18:47
  jobs. It's unemployment's huge.
• 18:50
  But right now unemployment is actually not that high.
• 18:53
  People are just struggling. They just, you know, their
• 18:55
  salaries aren't rising. Inflation is rising.
• 18:59
  People are just struggling. But you know, there's plenty of
• 19:01
  jobs. Companies are struggling to hire
• 19:04
  good people because no one wants to work. the US government over
• 19:07
  the last several decades have made people very, very lazy.
• 19:11
  It's very hard to find a hard working employee these days.
• 19:15
  And what what it ends up being right now in the environment
• 19:21
  where people are losing their jobs to better technology, you
• 19:26
  know, as a minimum wage rises. Stores are replacing people with
• 19:31
  robots. You know, like fast food is
• 19:33
  going to be all robots. AI is coming, making simple
• 19:38
  tasks, you know, even easier. And companies that utilize AI
• 19:42
  tools will displace, you know, people will, you know, displace
• 19:47
  their jobs. So people will struggle, but the
• 19:51
  stock market will continue to rise.
• 19:54
  Does that mean it's a recession? I don't know, but that's kind of
• 19:56
  my outlook for the United States.
• 19:59
  Gotcha. So if there is isn't going to be
• 20:01
  a recession, it's safe to say that we've hit bottom.
• 20:05
  There's not going to be another correction.
• 20:08
  It's just here to the moon from now on.
• 20:11
  I believe so. I think many forces are going to
• 20:14
  drive the stock market higher. It doesn't.
• 20:17
  But again, stock market going up doesn't mean that everyone is
• 20:20
  fat and happy and they haven't having a good life.
• 20:23
  There are so many reasons for the stock market to rise.
• 20:26
  One of them is inflation itself. As inflation rises, stock prices
• 20:31
  rise as companies become more efficient, replacing the most
• 20:35
  expensive part of the company, which is human labour, with AI
• 20:39
  tools, their stock prices rise, the government wiping out mom
• 20:46
  and pop stores and making their life even harder.
• 20:49
  You know, improves companies like Amazon's.
• 20:54
  Amazon stock went through the roof because the government told
• 20:59
  everyone to go shop at Amazon, OK?
• 21:02
  And these kinds of things will drive the stock market higher.
• 21:08
  So I'm expecting the stock market to rise.
• 21:10
  And also, here's another one at you Right now, there's only one
• 21:14
  major company in the S&P that has Bitcoin on his balance
• 21:18
  sheet, and that's micro strategy.
• 21:20
  Tesla has some Block, formerly Square has some and.
• 21:26
  But what happens? What happens when Bitcoin goes
• 21:28
  into a bull market? What happens when Bitcoin breaks
• 21:31
  50,000 and everyone hits FOMO and now Bitcoin is rising to
• 21:35
  100,000? Aren't more companies going to
• 21:38
  want to do what MicroStrategy did?
• 21:41
  What happens when MicroStrategy is in the top five market cap
• 21:45
  companies in the world? Everyone is going to buy
• 21:47
  Bitcoin, right? So now every company in the S&P
• 21:50
  500 has got Bitcoin on his balance sheet.
• 21:53
  Doesn't that mean the stock of that company is going to rise.
• 21:56
  So many reasons for stock market to rise the no one is buying
• 22:00
  American bonds. The bond sector is incredibly
• 22:03
  risky. The the ratio between people
• 22:07
  holding bonds and stocks is huge in the favor of stocks versus it
• 22:12
  was 5-6 years ago. I think that ratio is going to
• 22:15
  keep moving in the stocks direction.
• 22:18
  Government bonds are very risky. There is private debt and then
• 22:22
  there is, you know, there's you can invest in in the public, you
• 22:25
  can invest in the private sector.
• 22:27
  Stock market is the private sector.
• 22:30
  You know, Europe is in serious trouble now.
• 22:34
  We're in the midst of another war, right?
• 22:36
  Russia, Ukraine wasn't enough. Now it's Israel, Palestine. the
• 22:42
  United States is doing absolutely nothing to lower the
• 22:46
  tensions. They're just, you know, fully on
• 22:50
  board for Jewish versus Muslim war happening, right?
• 22:55
  And now they want to start another one with China.
• 22:58
  Where do people hide their money?
• 23:00
  the US stock market is actually fairly safe.
• 23:03
  Most of the companies are tech companies.
• 23:05
  They don't have a physical presence in the US.
• 23:08
  Netflix, that's a global company.
• 23:11
  Microsoft, that's a global company.
• 23:15
  I mean, what else we got at the top?
• 23:16
  Google. That's a global company
• 23:18
  investing in Google. Google doesn't have to reside on
• 23:22
  United States soil. It can actually go completely
• 23:27
  decentralized, right? So this is where people will
• 23:32
  find safety in their money. So plenty of reasons for stock
• 23:37
  market to rise. Chris Ciovako, he's a
• 23:41
  traditional analyst, runs a fund.
• 23:44
  I used to follow him all the time, even before I got into
• 23:47
  crypto. I've been following his work
• 23:49
  like 15 years ago even maybe even before that.
• 23:52
  He's got this article out saying the demographics have never been
• 23:56
  stronger in favor of the stock market run up like just the age
• 24:02
  of boomers versus the young generation millennials Gen.
• 24:06
  Z. The demographics are setting up
• 24:08
  the way they were setting up in the 80s for the big run up
• 24:12
  between the 80s and 90s and it's he's seeing similar similarity
• 24:17
  like in the 80s and 90s and prior to that I I I forgot the
• 24:25
  dates but the demographics are setting up for a bull market as
• 24:28
  well. That one was that that was an
• 24:30
  interesting read for me because I didn't I didn't see that
• 24:33
  coming. All we hear is you know boomers
• 24:36
  are going to end the big run up but he has the complete opposite
• 24:39
  argument. There's just so many reasons for
• 24:41
  the stock market to rise. I'm going to stick with my
• 24:44
  bullish view of the stock market.
• 24:45
  I've been talking about it for a decade now.
• 24:47
  The stock market is going to keep rising and rising and
• 24:49
  rising and it has been. We're just 5% off the all time
• 24:53
  highs. I think we'll reach it very
• 24:55
  early next year. OK, interesting.
• 24:57
  Interesting. I love the, the, the, the, the.
• 25:02
  The opposing view 'cause I, I, I the general consensus is you
• 25:06
  know, there's going to be another, you know it, it's going
• 25:09
  to keep dropping, there's going to, there's going to be a
• 25:11
  recession in 2024. So it's it's it's refreshing to
• 25:16
  hear something different than the the common, the common
• 25:19
  consensus now where does Bitcoin play into all this?
• 25:23
  Because I think at least I'm speaking for myself.
• 25:26
  I was extremely disappointed with the 2020-2021 bull market.
• 25:32
  I think everyone was expecting 100 Ki think we should have hit
• 25:35
  100 Ki think that there was a, you know a a multitude of
• 25:39
  factors, whether it was the China ban which made the hash
• 25:42
  rate drop which caused the cell pressure from the miners.
• 25:46
  There was the, you know, the rehypothecation from FTX.
• 25:50
  And then the theme that I hear this cycle is the the the
• 25:55
  diminishing returns theory, right?
• 25:57
  Which is? Essentially, the best days of
• 26:00
  Bitcoin are over. We'll be lucky if we hit 100K
• 26:04
  this cycle. What is your take on that tone
• 26:07
  base? Yeah, I I was certainly
• 26:11
  disappointed in that second-half of 2021 and only because we
• 26:16
  broke the prior all time high from April.
• 26:19
  For me as a technical analyst, the most bullish sign for me is
• 26:24
  breaking the prior all time high.
• 26:26
  When we broke 65,000 and went to 68, I was incredibly bullish,
• 26:31
  mostly from ATA perspective. So yeah, it was disappointing we
• 26:35
  never got to that eighty $90,000 range and I think on the next
• 26:40
  one we can overshoot. Now diminishing returns is true,
• 26:44
  but even if the price of Bitcoin goes to a quarter million, you
• 26:47
  can still claim it's a diminishing return based on how
• 26:50
  it did in 2013 and how it did in 2017.
• 26:54
  Even going to 1/4 mil would be a diminishing return.
• 26:58
  So that would be a nice run up for Bitcoin.
• 27:01
  Look, it is true because there's a lot more value on chain, but
• 27:06
  at the same time, we have not seen any critical mass adoption
• 27:11
  on the country level. All we have is El Salvador and
• 27:14
  then the corporate level. All we really have is micro
• 27:16
  strategies. We really have one company and
• 27:19
  one country and I think this is, I think these things are coming.
• 27:23
  I think more countries are going to adopt it.
• 27:25
  I think more companies are just going to put their money into
• 27:30
  Bitcoin on their balance sheets and once that sets in like the
• 27:35
  ETF is an ETF, the ETFI don't even think is going to be the
• 27:38
  main catalyst here. There's other great catalysts
• 27:41
  and even like regular people, regular plebs.
• 27:44
  If you were middle class income in the West, you should be able
• 27:48
  to have one Bitcoin in cold storage.
• 27:51
  It's $37,000 right now. Would have been better a year
• 27:55
  ago when it was 15,000. Anybody could have.
• 27:58
  I mean, if you have a 7080 thousand dollar job, you should
• 28:01
  be able to hold one Bitcoin for the future.
• 28:06
  And we now have over 1,000,000 wallets with one Bitcoin.
• 28:10
  And if your wallet has one Bitcoin today, you can afford a
• 28:14
  second Bitcoin. And so I am expecting 2 million
• 28:18
  wallets to hold a Bitcoin, at least a Bitcoin.
• 28:22
  And this is the kind of Bitcoin that gets off chain for a long
• 28:26
  time. Also, Lightning network as more
• 28:30
  and more as a few million Bitcoin gets into the lightning
• 28:32
  network. All of this removes liquidity,
• 28:35
  it removes cell pressure on Bitcoin, and when that FOMO sets
• 28:41
  in, I can easily see Bitcoin going up from say 75,000
• 28:47
  straight to 150,000 in a in a matter of a few months.
• 28:52
  Very, very easily happens because the liquidity is just
• 28:55
  not going to be there. The cell pressure is not going
• 28:57
  to be there and it will just fly up.
• 29:00
  And I think that day is coming this cycle.
• 29:02
  Man I and and that is you know and and I agree by the way I I I
• 29:07
  can't explain it and you know articulate it and and say it the
• 29:11
  way that you did tone. But I I do believe that this
• 29:14
  cycle is different because of Michael Saylor.
• 29:18
  Because of Naimbukele and their strategies are going to be
• 29:23
  vindicated. And there's no amount of
• 29:25
  corporate media propaganda spin that's going to be able to deny
• 29:30
  the fact that they made the right moves.
• 29:32
  I mean, Michael Saylor is, and again, not every company is
• 29:37
  gonna go. You know, has balls to the wall
• 29:40
  as Sailor has with MicroStrategy.
• 29:42
  But even if a company puts on 1%, two percent, 3% of Bitcoin
• 29:47
  on their balance sheet, it, you know, it's going to completely
• 29:51
  outperform any other strategy. And I think that's going to be
• 29:53
  undeniable. This next, this next cycle.
• 29:57
  Do you see a a FOMO from a bunch of institutions, a bunch of
• 30:01
  public companies trying to buy Bitcoin as the price is running
• 30:04
  up or do you think they'll wait for the next cycle?
• 30:08
  No, I don't think anyone's waiting for another cycle.
• 30:10
  I think everyone is just waiting for the break of the all time
• 30:14
  high and I think that FOMO sets in above 50,001 more halving.
• 30:20
  I think if Bitcoin does not cross 50,000 before the halving
• 30:26
  and it crosses 50,000 after the halving, that cross of 50,000 is
• 30:31
  just going to create massive FOMO.
• 30:33
  I can see us going from 50 to quarter mil in six months.
• 30:38
  That is insane. And and and are we talking about
• 30:40
  the regular pattern of you know, where it it's usually about nine
• 30:46
  months to 12 months after the halving.
• 30:48
  So really the beginning of 2025, mid 2025, are we seeing this run
• 30:53
  up or do you start to see this happen before?
• 30:57
  According to Adam Back, you know he made a bet with on Twitter
• 31:00
  with the bakingo buddy of ours. Where he was betting him that we
• 31:04
  would hit 100K before the next halving.
• 31:07
  Do you believe in that? Are you on that camp or what?
• 31:11
  No, I I I don't think we're gonna hit 100 Ki don't even
• 31:15
  think we're gonna hit 50K before the halving.
• 31:17
  I I think we're just gonna get stuck here and struggle quite a
• 31:20
  bit. It's been a very frustrating
• 31:23
  bear market, but you know what? Everything is playing out
• 31:25
  exactly like the prior cycles and it's kind of scary.
• 31:28
  So I am actually fully on board that this cycle is going to look
• 31:33
  very similar to the prior cycles, but after that things
• 31:37
  are going to change. I don't know how they're going
• 31:39
  to change, but maybe we're not going to have an 80% crash.
• 31:43
  Again, I don't know. But I think the next cycle is
• 31:46
  going to look very, very different.
• 31:48
  But the current cycle I think is completely on par.
• 31:53
  I think that maybe 4243 thousand is the peak before the halving.
• 31:59
  We're going to, you know, pull back down to maybe 30,000 at
• 32:02
  some point before the halving. And then after the halving,
• 32:06
  within maybe three months after the halving, we're going to
• 32:09
  break 50,000. And the break of 50,000 just
• 32:12
  sets everything off for FOMO. So you really want to be in
• 32:16
  Bitcoin before it hits 50,000 because after that you're going
• 32:19
  to, you know, go to sleep, wake up and you can go, What the hell
• 32:22
  happened? That's a $10,000 candle.
• 32:25
  Yeah, and is and, but you mentioned something there which
• 32:28
  is you do believe that we will pull back down to 30 K before
• 32:31
  the halving. I do.
• 32:34
  I think this recent run up is a little bit of weird.
• 32:37
  This whole run up feels like first of all it got kicked off
• 32:41
  on fake news by Coin Telegraph about the Bitcoin ETF being
• 32:44
  approved and in the last couple of hours Bitcoin rallied again.
• 32:49
  The announcement that's coming this Friday from Gary Gensler, I
• 32:53
  think it's going to be negative. I think the market is going to
• 32:56
  you know nose dive a bit when Gary Gensler does not approve
• 33:00
  the ETF this Friday. And then people are going to
• 33:03
  hold out into January waiting for him to approve the ETF in
• 33:07
  January. And then once again they'll be
• 33:09
  disappointed and then and then we'll see, right.
• 33:16
  We are getting closer and closer to the halving, and miners are
• 33:21
  actually kind of incentivized. The big miners are incentivized
• 33:24
  to create a lot of pain for their less efficient
• 33:28
  competition. So after the halving, the big
• 33:31
  miners that want to dominate the market, they're very
• 33:34
  incentivized to dump Bitcoin on the market to really crush the
• 33:39
  miners that are struggling. There'll be miners that are
• 33:42
  struggling after the halving and they're going to go like we can
• 33:45
  hold out these two to three months after the halving.
• 33:48
  Now we're making half the profit.
• 33:49
  Maybe we can hang in there. Maybe the price will rise if
• 33:52
  these big miners are going to try to crush them by just
• 33:55
  selling Bitcoin into the halving because they know they have the
• 33:58
  money to hold out. And then once those miners
• 34:01
  capitulate after the halving, then we'll be on the upside.
• 34:07
  Absolutely, 100%. So I do want to be respectful of
• 34:10
  your time. I know you said you have to
• 34:11
  leave in a couple minutes or so. I want to talk about your
• 34:15
  conference, which is coming up. I'll be there, I'll be getting
• 34:18
  a, I'll give, I'll be getting married the day after.
• 34:21
  Unconfiscatable, which is gonna be now I'm gonna like, keep it
• 34:23
  on a secret and here you are blabbing it all over your your,
• 34:27
  your YouTube channel. Blah, but but yes, basically.
• 34:32
  Warning is limited though, right?
• 34:34
  It is limited. It is limited.
• 34:36
  It is limited. But yeah, I'm extremely excited
• 34:42
  for Unconfiscatable. It is one of my favorite
• 34:44
  conference, and I go to a lot of Bitcoin conferences.
• 34:46
  One of my favorite conferences of the year.
• 34:50
  And there's AT shirt. And last year, Last year we made
• 34:57
  the final table. You going to play again?
• 34:59
  I. Know.
• 35:00
  I know. I can't believe it.
• 35:01
  This is like my first poker tournament ever.
• 35:04
  Yes, I'm absolutely going to play the poker tournament again.
• 35:07
  I don't know if I'm going to make it to the final table
• 35:08
  again, but it was a whole lot of fun.
• 35:11
  I haven't signed up yet. Are you?
• 35:12
  Are you in? I haven't signed up yet.
• 35:14
  Should I? Yeah.
• 35:15
  Is it? Are we?
• 35:15
  Running out of is there running out of space?
• 35:18
  Not yet. But you should definitely sign
• 35:20
  up because we'll see. You may actually have a better
• 35:24
  shot this year. We may not sell out the entire
• 35:27
  hundred seats, but the reason why I want people to sign up
• 35:30
  early is because if we're going, if it's the week before the
• 35:34
  event and we only have like 60 seats, why am I paying for 10
• 35:37
  tables and 10 dealers, right? I'm only going to hire 6 dealers
• 35:41
  and they're going to bring 6 tables.
• 35:43
  Last minute they're gonna be like, sorry, we have a 60 player
• 35:46
  tournament and we have a better shot at winning first place.
• 35:49
  Yeah, yeah, exactly. No, that makes perfect sense.
• 35:52
  Yeah, and definitely recommend unconfiscatable.
• 35:55
  It's one of my favorite at the D The D Hotel is incredible.
• 35:59
  It's right in the Las Vegas Strip.
• 36:01
  There's the canopy thing. Longtown, Las Vegas.
• 36:05
  Downtown. Las Vegas.
• 36:06
  Downtown. Isn't that the same thing?
• 36:09
  No, no. The Strip is those big resorts.
• 36:11
  Like next to the airport. But yeah, it's Las Vegas
• 36:14
  downtown. There's like the canopy ride
• 36:17
  right down the middle. You know, it's, it's just
• 36:21
  absolutely. Incredible.
• 36:23
  The venue is great. There's a little balcony too.
• 36:26
  You can kind of look down. What are you most excited about
• 36:29
  this year? You know, I'm I'm just excited
• 36:33
  to see everybody one more time this year.
• 36:37
  What do you mean one more time? That sound that.
• 36:39
  Sounds that sounds like it's it's a finale or something.
• 36:43
  It is a finale. So December is the last
• 36:45
  conference of the year. Gotcha.
• 36:46
  Gotcha. OK, it will be the finale, the
• 36:49
  finale of the year, the. Finale of the year.
• 36:52
  OK, OK, Yeah. I mean, I don't know any other
• 36:54
  events that are happening after this event.
• 36:56
  So that we are the finale for the to, you know, put 2023
• 37:01
  behind us, Get ready for the halving year of 2024.
• 37:05
  Looking forward to playing some poker and it's been a rough
• 37:09
  year, you know, I just looking forward to relaxing where after
• 37:12
  it's done, the scammy awards are going to be fun.
• 37:14
  We're going to have Giacomo Zuko and Mir hosting it this year.
• 37:19
  We'll see you next year. Maybe you and Sophie or try to
• 37:24
  get Max and Stacy, but we keep moving host there was Leah
• 37:27
  Walder, myself year one and the the Bitcoin couple in year two.
• 37:32
  So the scammy awards are going to be fun.
• 37:35
  The carnivory dinner is going to be awesome this year.
• 37:37
  Rented out a top steakhouse. It's it's just going to be a fun
• 37:43
  event, man. It's going to be smaller.
• 37:45
  It's going to be one of the smaller conferences.
• 37:46
  Should be about 300 people. 400 is a sellout.
• 37:51
  Let's shoot for the 400. It'll be at least 300.
• 37:54
  It's going to be a nice fun time.
• 37:57
  We're just going to have a blast.
• 37:58
  Absolutely, man. Like I said, I had such a great
• 38:01
  time last year and it was an incredible.
• 38:03
  It was an incredible conference. Anyways tone it seems like we
• 38:06
  are getting to the top of of the time guys.
• 38:09
  You can use promo code SIMPLY 10 to get your own confiscatable
• 38:13
  tickets. You could check the the link in
• 38:15
  the video description as well as the link to the financial
• 38:18
  summit. I definitely recommend those two
• 38:21
  events. I've been to both of them
• 38:22
  personally and they're an absolute blast.
• 38:25
  Tone Vase, thank you so much for joining us on Simply Bitcoin IRL
• 38:28
  today. Awesome.
• 38:31
  Thanks, man. I appreciate it.
• 38:32
  Thanks, Tone. All right.
• 38:33
  Guys, that was our show. If you enjoyed it, smash the
• 38:35
  like button. Consider subscribing if you feel
• 38:37
  like we provided you value, we'll be back tomorrow, 12:15 PM
• 38:40
  Eastern Standard Time for another episode of Simply
• 38:43
  Bitcoin Live. Peace out, everybody.