Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - FED Revolt Just Lit the Fuse for a HUGE RALLY + Stock Market News 30 July 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - FED Revolt Just Lit the Fuse for a HUGE RALLY + Stock Market News 30 July 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Winston here and the wild kitten gang, and I want to explain to you why this Fed meeting today will come out with zero rate change, but it still has a huge impact on the stock market because two things happening.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: And then I want to explain to you why mainstream media, who just told you this morning that US GDP, the US economy, is growing at 3% and that's marvelous why that is actually nonsense and why that also is good news for your portfolio.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn that, if there'll be some value in that, smash the like button or put a heart in the chat or something.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: While Winston is watching the madness here in the background, you're trying to destroy my office here, undoubtedly so.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: He's mean.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: He's had enough.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: He's had enough.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: He's like these guys are just mad.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: So shall we jump straight into it or shall we look at more kittens?
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: That is the big question.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Let me know in the chat what's more interesting me teaching you stuff about money and you potentially making more money, or us talking about kittens?
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: That's the real challenge here.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Maybe we can do both.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: So Goldman Sachs just came out with their preview meeting by meeting, and that's what all the big investment banks do.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Just before this happens.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: They send to their clients not to you and me the riffraff of Main Street.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: They sent a statement, what they think is going to happen.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: There's a full pdf note I just screenshot the beginning of it here, because that's kind of the interesting bit and they're basically saying um, basically, there will be no rate cut at this meeting.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: Right, that's the first one.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: I've also screenshot another one here for you, just so you believe that this is actually what wall street is saying.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Basically, they're saying there's going to be no rate cut, and then they kind of talk through all the data points here from Bank of America, internet too, the likelihood, the probability, probability.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: Trust an old banker that can't spell right, where do all the cats go?
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Where do they all go?
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Where are they?
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Now?
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: We need like sort of a tracking camera or something, don't we?
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: These guys are properly naughty, properly naughty.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Let me see if we can move them around.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: There they are, you see, real pain in the.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: You know, absolutely lovely, obviously.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: So what does a 3% probability mean?
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: I'm totally distracted, and I'm sure you guys are going to talk about so far We'll do that in a second as well.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: It means there is no rate cut coming right.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: So that's the first thing that needs to be established there will be no rate cut.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: So don't bother watching the news about whether there's a rate cut.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: But and this is a big one, and this is from Bloomberg they're saying that two governors Waller and who's the other one Can't remember they're going to dissent, they're going to publicly come out and say I disagree with you, mr chairman, and that never happens.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: The last time that happened was in 1993.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Was that those days when um bill clinton was saying I did not have you know what, um, you know what the sentence goes?
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Wasn't that around about 1990?
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: And that was a was a little later?
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: Wasn't it that was later in the 90s?
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Wasn't it that was 97 or something?
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Anyway, I digress, this never happens.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: Now, possibly these two governors are trying to get his job, but it's going to send a signal to the market that, as this Fed chair's term is about to expire, in early 2026, which is only a heartbeat away rate cuts are going to come in hard and strong.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: And if you go back to the expectations, here is some more jibber from the coked up lot on Wall Street Sorry, goldman Sachs, obviously didn't mean that part.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: They're saying that the market will be able to continue to look through any near-term weakness and growth.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Our base case is the market can probably still hold on to that faith.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: Basically, they're going to say to the moon.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: That's basically what Goldman Sachs is saying there in a lot of words about the market, and that's what I'm trying to get through to you here, which, if that makes some sense to you, you're going to wonder what stocks to buy, right?
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to do a special session for you guys this Saturday at 10 am, new York time, about how to make the most of this rally, which I believe is going to continue for quite some time.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: At the same time, how to protect your portfolio, because do you remember the beginning of this year?
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know, everyone's like scrubbed it from their memory.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Let me move the kittens out of the way for a little while here.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: But yes, although the kittens, where did the kittens go?
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: There, there, there, there's some kittens, so we need to hang on.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: There is a face tracking.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Let's see if that works.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: No, it doesn't work, apparently.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Okay, do you remember February this year?
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: You were down at least 20%, maybe you were down 50%, 60%, maybe more right, that was 2025.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: Do you remember post-COVID, that glorious rally?
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: What happened?
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Everything went to the moon and then it went to shit.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Right, Pardon my French, I should have said the same thing is going to happen again.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: It's inevitable, it happens all the time, it happens.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: There is a major crash every three years, a major, bigger one every seven years, every 20 years.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: We get like total freaking calamity and therefore what happens is that people make money and then they hand that money back over to the buggers on Wall Street, right?
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: So I've tried to attack the leather chair.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they like that leather chair.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Actually, they like that a lot.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: Albert sits on it as a very manly man, he sits on it and he's like this is my smoking chair, get away.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: So, anyway, if you're going to join me for the live training on Saturday, put a T in the chat for training, because it'll teach you how to make sure this never happens to you.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: At the same time, how to really take advantage of this golden bonanza.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: But let's get back to the story here and, um, kitten entertainment included.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: These guys are sweet, right?
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Uh, move the cam please.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: Um, okay, more, more kittens or less kittens, but in the chat, put more or less and we will follow the majority.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Some people seem to find the kittens distracting, but you only need to look at this column.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: You don't need to look at the rest Loving you guys for all the teas there, joining for the training In September.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: And don't worry, you can't see all the columns, you only need this one 66% likelihood of a rate cut.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: More, less, less, less, more.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: We should do a vote More, more, more, less, less.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: It's about half half.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: It's about half half.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: So maybe we'll reduce it a little bit.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: How about that Sort of a fair?
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: You know, know, a bit of space, although honestly you're not.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: You're not missing anything.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: We're not seeing nonsense here.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: So by the end of the year we're basically expecting two rate cuts.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: I think that would be fair and then by 2026, we're going to get down another percentage point.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: I think that expectation is going to increase and I'll tell you why, because they just showed you this.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: I'll put it next to the kittens so you can still see the kittens.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Um, you want to zoom in more, but then you're going to miss stuff.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: That's good, isn't it?
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: That's very, very good.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: We got a lamp.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: One lamp's down.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: She's meant to be the grown-up, by the way.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: That's the mother teaching her children how to destroy my studio.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: Now, cnbc just came out and said the US economy grew 3%.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: Yes, three glorious percent, which must mean everything is wonderful.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: The economy is pumping.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: And well, if we had a 3% strong economy then there's no way we would ever get rate cuts right.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Ever right.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Separate channel for the kittens, 100k subs by end of year.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's probably true.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: I just stopped talking and just put the kittens on.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: 100k subs by end of year.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's probably true.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: I just stopped talking and just put the kittens on.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: That would probably work.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Um, they've also just moved the camera.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: You can do that.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: How do you guys do that?
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: We're mildly distracted.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: I think it's fair to say there is some distraction here.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: You do kitten, kitten-related content.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: Here we go, but they are cute.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: So, as I try to focus back on the economy and I'm failing miserably, here is if you read CNBC, good luck to you.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Us economy grew at 3%, a better than expected pace, even as Trump's tariffs hit Jeff Cox, the man who wrote that, is either a dumbo or he is intentionally misleading you, and I'll tell you why.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: And this chart is worthy of a screenshot, my friends.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Okay, let me zoom in for you.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: So there are two green, sorry blue.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: These glasses make everything the wrong color.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: You see this blue bar here, that one.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: Let me find a matching blue color.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: That blue bar there and that blue bar there.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: What is it?
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: What does it stand for?
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: Well, let me show you that blue bar there.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: What is it?
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: What does it stand for?
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Well, let me show you Net exports, right?
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: So what happened in the first quarter when the tariffs were about to hit?
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: What happened?
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Massive, massive imports.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Because if you're Walmart or somebody who's selling stuff online for $2.99, you're going to import as much as you possibly can before the tariffs hit.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Right, that's what they did and that reduced the GDP in the last quarter substantially.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: Right, it was negative here, negative there.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: People are like oh, now we know why the banana trees look so sad.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Look at that, we've just found out.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: That's why they look so sad.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: I was trying to figure out what happened to the poor things, little bastards there.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: They are destroying everything in their wake.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Now, what's just happened?
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Now that the tariffs are, in effect, much, much less wrong, color imports, because imports are more expensive, and that's the only reason the GDP numbers are up.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: So this GDP number up here is nonsense, just as the GDP number down here was nonsense, because it's entirely driven by imports and exports, which, in reality, have no bearing on your economy or the size of it.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: So it's just nonsense.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: In reality, what actually happened as the destruction continues is that GDP is basically just going sideways.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: Does that make some sense to you?
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Does that make some sense to you?
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Put a one in the chat if you're not entirely distracted by the Adams family there in the background who are going absolutely berserk.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Does that make some sense to you?
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Put a one in the chat there?
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: Time for a cat tree?
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we do have one or two.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Um, they don't scratch the leather.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: I'm glad you guys paying attention to, um, the economics there and the importance to your portfolio, when everyone's just talking about kittens.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Okay, well, lots of ones, lots of ones.