Latest / Upper Hand Fantasy / 10 Sleepers Way Too Cheap In 2026
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_00: If you're drafting your fantasy football team soon, these are 10 names you need on your board before your league mates find them.
- 0:05SPEAKER_00: And hey, I'm not just saying that.
- 0:06SPEAKER_00: Guys like Drake May, Tucker Kraft were two names who were both complete afterthoughts in drafts last year.
- 0:11SPEAKER_00: And I had both of them as primary targets, huge sleepers before they started to produce at a high level.
- 0:16SPEAKER_00: This list is built the exact same way.
- 0:18SPEAKER_00: So here's how we're doing this.
- 0:19SPEAKER_00: We got 10 players receivers, running backs, quarterbacks, and tight ends.
- 0:22SPEAKER_00: Guys that the market is pricing like total afterthoughts right now.
- 0:25SPEAKER_00: And ADP is moving as we speak.
- 0:27SPEAKER_00: So the value on some of these guys isn't gonna last long.
- 0:30SPEAKER_00: I'll actually show you a way to keep up with that later in the video.
- 0:32SPEAKER_00: Let's just get into it.
- 0:33SPEAKER_00: All right, let's start with number one.
- 0:35SPEAKER_00: The biggest mistake you're gonna make in your draft is fading Michael Pittman.
- 0:39SPEAKER_00: And I totally get why people are.
- 0:40SPEAKER_00: The Steelers have multiple receivers, Aaron Rodgers is at quarterback.
- 0:43SPEAKER_00: Arthur Smith is leaving that stink in Pittsburgh, even though he's not there anymore.
- 0:47SPEAKER_00: But Mike McCarthy is taking over, and that should be a reason to be encouraged, especially in the passing game.
- 0:52SPEAKER_00: Over the last 10 years, McCarthy's offenses have ranked top eight in pass attempts in all but two seasons.
- 0:58SPEAKER_00: And in both of those years, his starting quarterback missed at least five games.
- 1:02SPEAKER_00: This guy just wants to air it out.
- 1:03SPEAKER_00: The last time he had Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, he let him throw the ball 600 times at 35 years old.
- 1:08SPEAKER_00: So yeah, sure, Rodgers is 42 now, so who knows how much gas is actually left in the tank.
- 1:12SPEAKER_00: He was fine last year, but I think Pittman's gonna be the number one target in an offense that's built to throw the ball a ton.
- 1:17SPEAKER_00: And I actually think it's him over Metcalf.
- 1:19SPEAKER_00: And here's why Pittman's just a better target earner.
- 1:21SPEAKER_00: He's had at least a 24% target share in four of his last five seasons, and that's with plenty of target competition and honestly some pretty shaky quarterback play the entire time.
- 1:29SPEAKER_00: Metcalf's target share only hovered around 20% over the last three years, and last year he had zero competition.
- 1:35SPEAKER_00: So I don't really see that number going up with a proven target earner like Pittman walking in the door.
- 1:39SPEAKER_00: And stylistically, Pittman's just the type of possession receiver Rogers likes.
- 1:43SPEAKER_00: He separates on a lot of route variety, he's reliable, short to intermediate.
- 1:46SPEAKER_00: That's not really Metcalf's game.
- 1:48SPEAKER_00: And when you look at the price, wide receiver 48, that's just insane value for someone you won't be surprised as a top 36 or even a top 24 wide receiver after a few weeks into the season.
- 1:57SPEAKER_00: You know who else got drafted as a wide receiver 48 in recent years?
- 2:01SPEAKER_00: Keon Coleman, rookie Brian Thomas, Sky Moore, Russell Gage.
- 2:05SPEAKER_00: Those guys were nobodies at the time, and Pittman's a proven asset going at that exact same price range.
- 2:09SPEAKER_00: I really don't think you can be the guy who fades Michael Pittman this year.
- 2:12SPEAKER_00: Next up is Jonathan Brooks.
- 2:13SPEAKER_00: I think Chuba Hubbard's job is genuinely in jeopardy right now, and it's because of Jonathan Brooks.
- 2:18SPEAKER_00: Carolina's been saying it all offseason, man.
- 2:20SPEAKER_00: They want Brooks to lead this backfield once he's healthy.
- 2:22SPEAKER_00: And the question was never really if that happens, it's when.
- 2:25SPEAKER_00: And I get it, like the risk is real.
- 2:27SPEAKER_00: Like he's torn his ACL twice, both clean tears in the same knee and no other ligament damage.
- 2:32SPEAKER_00: And he's only 22 years old, so he hasn't really hit his prime yet, and it makes the injury less worrisome.
- 2:37SPEAKER_00: And by every account, out of camp, like he hasn't lost a step.
- 2:40SPEAKER_00: And here's the thing about Hubbard: he was the only running back with 100 plus carries last year to not produce a single explosive run.
- 2:46SPEAKER_00: Not one.
- 2:46SPEAKER_00: We already watched him lose the lead role midseason to Rico Dowdle.
- 2:50SPEAKER_00: So Brooks really doesn't have to do much to jump him.
- 2:51SPEAKER_00: It seems like Brooks is coming into camp like the guy Carolina Ashley drafted.
- 2:55SPEAKER_00: He's already getting first team reps, which is amazing to see.
- 2:58SPEAKER_00: He's a really good runner, legitimate pass catcher.
- 3:00SPEAKER_00: He could take over the lead role before week one even gets here.
- 3:02SPEAKER_00: And if that happens, I think we've got a league winner on our hands for a running back going way later than the back he's about to replace.
- 3:09SPEAKER_00: His current price tag is RB38 off the board.
- 3:12SPEAKER_00: That is gonna go up because of training camp stuff, but because of the ambiguity here, still, so many people will choose to stay away.
- 3:18SPEAKER_00: I think picking the right running back from an ambiguous backfield is how you win leagues.
- 3:22SPEAKER_00: Number three is Tyler Shug.
- 3:23SPEAKER_00: From week nine on last year, once he actually took over as a starter, he ranked seventh in passing yards per game, sixth in catchable ball rate, twelfth in fantasy points per game.
- 3:32SPEAKER_00: And that was with basically just Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson to throw the ball to.
- 3:35SPEAKER_00: He looked really good throwing the ball.
- 3:37SPEAKER_00: But here's the part that nobody remembers, or nobody even knows really.
- 3:40SPEAKER_00: Shug had a nine percent design run rate in that stretch, which was seventh highest in the entire NFL.
- 3:44SPEAKER_00: He ranked top 12 in rushing yards, top five in rushing touchdowns among all quarterbacks during that stretch.
- 3:49SPEAKER_00: That's like real rushing usage that most people have no idea even existed with this guy.
- 3:53SPEAKER_00: And now he's got Olave, Juwan Johnson, and Jordan Tyson, plus Travis Etienne in the backfield to help keep the offense on schedule, running one of the fastest paces in football under Kellen Moore.
- 4:03SPEAKER_00: So now he's got a full offseason as a starter this time, and he's basically somewhat of a dual threat quarterback being priced like a total statue.
- 4:09SPEAKER_00: This is the type of profile that has top 12 potential at his QB 19 price.
- 4:13SPEAKER_00: Number four is Casey Concepcion.
- 4:15SPEAKER_00: Now, before you even bring up the quarterback situation or the target competition, there's basically zero risk in drafting Concepcion at his price.
- 4:21SPEAKER_00: He's a first round pick coming off the board as a wide receiver, 56 in the 12th round.
- 4:25SPEAKER_00: So think about that for a second, okay?
- 4:27SPEAKER_00: He might honestly be the best route runner in this draft class, and or maybe the best separator in this draft class.
- 4:32SPEAKER_00: Like he plays inside, he plays outside, he's dangerous after the catch.
- 4:34SPEAKER_00: If you guys follow my rookie content, like you know, like I'm a big fan of Concepcion, but he ranked first in his draft class and first downs per route run two, which just means he moves the chains, and that's exactly the sign of consistency you want for fantasy.
- 4:46SPEAKER_00: He reminds me of a young Stefan Diggs with even more juice after the catch.
- 4:49SPEAKER_00: He definitely has the potential to be the wide receiver one on his team.
- 4:52SPEAKER_00: So even on what could be a bad Browns team, there will likely be negative game scripts here.
- 4:56SPEAKER_00: So there's still room for serious fantasy upside.
- 4:58SPEAKER_00: And one of the connections you probably heard about before was you know, new head coach Todd Munkin built his old Ravens passing game around Zay Flowers in a nearly identical, like kind of hybrid alignment, right?
- 5:07SPEAKER_00: Inside, outside type of thing, maybe 65-35 wide versus slot, which is basically the same role concepts projected into.
- 5:13SPEAKER_00: Munkin fed Flowers a 30% target share last year, 26% the year before that, 24% as a rookie.
- 5:19SPEAKER_00: I think he's one of the few rookies who could end up being a league winner this year, especially when you consider the price.
- 5:25SPEAKER_00: Number five, Chris Godwin.
- 5:26SPEAKER_00: So when Godwin's running primarily out of the slot, he's a top five fantasy receiver pretty much.
- 5:30SPEAKER_00: Over the last two seasons, when he's in the slot with Mike Evans healthy and you know drawing coverage elsewhere, eight targets, 18.3 fantasy points per game.
- 5:39SPEAKER_00: Okay, that's kind of insane.
- 5:41SPEAKER_00: That's basically when he was playing 65-35, favoring the slot.
- 5:44SPEAKER_00: But when Evans gets hurt and Godwin gets pushed outside more than we like, that number just collapses.
- 5:49SPEAKER_00: He's down to two catches and 7.1 points per game, which is an insane gap, right?
- 5:53SPEAKER_00: Every report out of OTAs and also his OC suggesting that Godwin is back in the slot again this year, the exact same role that made him one of the most productive fantasy receivers in football when he's healthy.
- 6:03SPEAKER_00: He was coming off a pretty gruesome injury this time last year, but he's healthy now going into 2026.
- 6:08SPEAKER_00: And when he started to recover from his injury late in the season last year, he was actually pretty efficient and looked a lot like his old self.
- 6:15SPEAKER_00: He's a huge sleeper for me.
- 6:16SPEAKER_00: He's being drafted as a wide receiver 41 right now.
- 6:19SPEAKER_00: Someone who is just a wide receiver two in fantasy points per game in PPR before his injury.
- 6:24SPEAKER_00: So if you miss out on a Meka Ibuka, who I'm targeting a ton of, Gowin's a great consolation prize as a dark horse to actually lead the Bucks in targets.
- 6:31SPEAKER_00: So quick pause, real quick.
- 6:33SPEAKER_00: I mentioned early on that I built something to help you remember all these guys.
- 6:36SPEAKER_00: I've got a live sleeper tracker that updates all the way through the start of the season.
- 6:40SPEAKER_00: Every name on this list, plus new ones as they show up with the latest ADP, a bit of analysis on each guy, all in one place, completely free.
- 6:48SPEAKER_00: Just find me on Instagram at UpperhandFantasy, DM me the word sleepers26, and I'll send that over.
- 6:53SPEAKER_00: Number six is Jordan Mason.
- 6:55SPEAKER_00: In the four games last year without Aaron Jones, Mason handled the primary role in the Vikings backfield, and he was a top 15 running back in fantasy points per game.
- 7:02SPEAKER_00: He had 70% of the rush attempts, 50% of the routes, 14.8 points per game.
- 7:06SPEAKER_00: Very, very solid role and production.
- 7:07SPEAKER_00: And then once Aaron Jones came back from injury, Mason's snap share dropped all the way down to 29%, not even fantasy relevant at that point.
- 7:14SPEAKER_00: But that's changing.
- 7:15SPEAKER_00: Vikings insider Matthew Kohler basically said this is Mason's backfield going into 2026.
- 7:19SPEAKER_00: And with Aaron Jones being eliminated to more of a pass and down, spelling type of role.
- 7:24SPEAKER_00: And honestly, that kind of tracks because Jones is past his prime.
- 7:27SPEAKER_00: I think the Vikings know it at this point.
- 7:29SPEAKER_00: Mason's also quietly been one of the more efficient runners in the league the last few years, 10th in explosive run rate, ninth in missed tackles force per attempt, 15th in yards after contact per attempt among qualifying backs.
- 7:39SPEAKER_00: So if Mason's leading the way and picking up goal line work on an offense that should take a step forward with Kyler Murray under center instead of JJ McCarthy or any quarterback besides JJ McCarthy, I think he winds up being one of the most undervalued backs in fantasy this year.
- 7:53SPEAKER_00: Number seven is Wandell Robinson.
- 7:54SPEAKER_00: Carnell Tate's gonna make the flashy plays, he's gonna get the headlines.
- 7:57SPEAKER_00: But the word is Wandell Robinson has been Cam Ward's favorite target in terms of pure volume all offseason.
- 8:03SPEAKER_00: And we'll see what happens going into training camp.
- 8:05SPEAKER_00: We'll hope that continues, or we'll see if that continues, I should say.
- 8:07SPEAKER_00: But here's why it fits so well, right?
- 8:09SPEAKER_00: Cam Ward's most targeted routes are the hitch, the screen, the go, the out.
- 8:13SPEAKER_00: Wandell ranks inside the top 35 among 84 qualifying receivers in yards per route run on all four of those.
- 8:20SPEAKER_00: His entire route tree is almost entirely horizontally breaking, and that's exactly Ward's preference.
- 8:25SPEAKER_00: And also, like that's the best routes for fantasy.
- 8:28SPEAKER_00: Ward also targeted horizontal breaking routes 41% of the time last season, by far his favorite and most productive route type that also produces highest passer rating and 11 of his 15 touchdowns thrown targeting them.
- 8:39SPEAKER_00: And Wandale's not walking into this blind either.
- 8:42SPEAKER_00: New OC Brian Dables, the same play caller who fed Wandale 140 targets in back-to-back seasons with the Giants.
- 8:48SPEAKER_00: And one of those years was with a rookie Malik Neighbors who had a ton of targets.
- 8:52SPEAKER_00: Dables' history shows that he loves Wandale, so don't lose sight of him behind Carnell Tate, particularly in PPR.
- 8:58SPEAKER_00: Next up is Josh Downs.
- 8:59SPEAKER_00: You knew I was going to include him in this video, right?
- 9:01SPEAKER_00: His problem has never been earning targets.
- 9:03SPEAKER_00: Since 2021, he ranks top 10 among all receivers in targets per route run through a player's first three seasons.
- 9:09SPEAKER_00: The talent's always been there, it's the opportunity that hasn't.
- 9:12SPEAKER_00: The thing is, 95% of his career production has come out of 11 personnel, three wide receiver sets.
- 9:17SPEAKER_00: And 75% of it has come from the slot.
- 9:20SPEAKER_00: He's basically only ever played in three wide receiver sets his entire career.
- 9:23SPEAKER_00: In 2024, he led the team in target share and just 72% route participation.
- 9:27SPEAKER_00: That was still a part-time role, and he killed it that year in terms of efficiency on a per route basis.
- 9:32SPEAKER_00: But all that changes now.
- 9:32SPEAKER_00: Michael Payment's 20% target share just walked out the door to Pittsburgh, and that opens up a spot as one of the top two wide receivers in 12 personnel or two wide receiver sets.
- 9:41SPEAKER_00: Alec Pierce is going to be the extra receiver when he's back.
- 9:43SPEAKER_00: He started camp on the pup list, but it's worth noting that head coach Shane Steikens already set on record a few days ago that Downs is going to get more opportunities this year, specifically mentioned 12 personnel.
- 9:54SPEAKER_00: That's music to our ears because Downs finally has a chance of being a full-time wide receiver with his rap participation being above that 80, 85% mark that he hasn't been at in his career up until this point.
- 10:04SPEAKER_00: He's going in the 11th round right now.
- 10:06SPEAKER_00: And if he steps into a real full-time role for the first time in his career, this is one of the best values in the entire draft.
- 10:12SPEAKER_00: And people are still sleeping.
- 10:13SPEAKER_00: Number nine is Dallas Goddard, one of my favorite tight ends to draft this season.
- 10:18SPEAKER_00: AJ Brown is gone, so is his 30% target share.
- 10:21SPEAKER_00: It's officially up for grabs.
- 10:22SPEAKER_00: Obviously, Devontae Smith's gonna get most of it, but Goddard's gonna absorb a lot of that.
- 10:27SPEAKER_00: And through every single coordinator change this Eagles team has made over the past few years, Goddard's been the one constant 19 to 20% target share each of the last five seasons.
- 10:36SPEAKER_00: He also led the team in red zone target share last year at 28%.
- 10:39SPEAKER_00: That was fourth in the entire NFL, behind only Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and Hunter Henry.
- 10:44SPEAKER_00: And when H Brown was off the field the last two years, Goddard averaged 16.2 fantasy points per game that would have ranked as the tight end two last season.
- 10:51SPEAKER_00: So he's coming off the board as a tight end 15 right now.
- 10:54SPEAKER_00: And I think that's just way too low.
- 10:56SPEAKER_00: He has no business going later than Travis Kelsey, Mark Andrews, guys like Dalton Kincaid, even though he has a ton of upside, but who knows what his role is gonna be.
- 11:04SPEAKER_00: But basically, Goddard's going at the same price as last year, but in a better overall situation in terms of target share and also offensive situation.
- 11:10SPEAKER_00: Kevin Petulo is gone, and this passing offense is I think gonna surprise some people this year.
- 11:15SPEAKER_00: I think he's an easy click in drafts, even as your first tight end.
- 11:18SPEAKER_00: And finally, late in your drafts, Kenneth Gainwell.
- 11:21SPEAKER_00: Tampa brought in Gainwell to be their pass catching back, and he's a massive upgrade over what they had before in Rashad White.
- 11:27SPEAKER_00: Among 44 running backs with 150 plus routes last year, Gainwell ranked third in target rate, eighth in yards per route run, sixth in first downs per route run, and he caught the fourth most passes at the position.
- 11:38SPEAKER_00: And that's all while stealing work from Jalen Warren in Pittsburgh.
- 11:41SPEAKER_00: That was his role.
- 11:42SPEAKER_00: That's super impressive on its own when he was taking him off the field because Warren was also super efficient.
- 11:46SPEAKER_00: And the fact that head coach Todd Bowles has already publicly called the Bucks backfield a 1A1B situation, particularly between Bucky Irving and Gainwell, that's not great for Bucky, but it's great for Gainwell.
- 11:57SPEAKER_00: So if you're convinced that this is a purely Bucky backfield, I think you need to reconsider that.
- 12:01SPEAKER_00: And this also isn't just a passing down roll anymore.
- 12:03SPEAKER_00: Maybe that's what they brought him in for, but it seems like he's gonna get some stuff on early downs too.
- 12:07SPEAKER_00: And Gainwell definitely has more utility in PPR formats for sure.
- 12:10SPEAKER_00: But if he's playing real snaps and catching three or four passes a game on top of his share of early down work, I think that's a legitimate value in the ninth round in all formats.
- 12:18SPEAKER_00: I think he's one of the most underrated late round running backs in fantasy this year.
- 12:22SPEAKER_00: So that's 10 sleepers.
- 12:23SPEAKER_00: And remember, the tracker I mentioned updates throughout the entire rest of training camp and preseason.
- 12:28SPEAKER_00: So you'll see new names pop up as we find them.
- 12:30SPEAKER_00: So find me on Instagram at UpperhandFantasy, DM me the word sleepers26, and I'll send you that for free.
- 12:36SPEAKER_00: And if you're interested in my draft kit, the link will be in the description.
- 12:39SPEAKER_00: I'll see you in the next one.