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The Real Economy Rebound: Beyond Big Tech · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning , traders !
• 0:02
  It's 5 am on Friday , February 20th , 2026 , Pacific time .
• 0:08
  This is your host , Penny Profits , bringing you the latest update from the Spy Trader studio .
• 0:14
  I hope you've got your coffee ready because the markets are definitely giving us a lot to talk about this morning .
• 0:20
  We are seeing a massive structural shift in how the market works .
• 0:24
  For years , we all looked at big tech as the only game in town , but 2026 is turning out to be the year of what we call the Real Economy .
• 0:33
  Yesterday , on February 19th , things were a bit bumpy .
• 0:38
  The S&P 500 , which many of you track through the SPY and VOO ETFs , closed down slightly by 0.2 percent to 6,861.89 .
• 0:49
  Even though it is near alltime highs , the internal gears are changing .
• 0:54
  The techheavy Nasdaq100 , ticker QQQ , fell another 0.3 percent , bringing its yeartodate loss to about 4.4 percent .
• 1:04
  Meanwhile , the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.5 percent to 49,395.16 .
• 1:12
  The real stars of the show right now are Energy and Industrials .
• 1:17
  The Energy Select Sector SPDR , or XLE , is just on fire , up nearly 20 percent so far this year .
• 1:25
  Just yesterday , it rose 1.9 percent because oil prices are hitting sixmonth highs .
• 1:31
  Companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron are really leading that charge .
• 1:35
  On the flip side , we are seeing some AI fatigue .
• 1:39
  The Technology Select Sector SPDR , XLK , is having a hard time .
• 1:45
  For example , Booking Holdings , ticker BKNG , took a 6.1 percent hit yesterday because people are worried about AI competition .
• 1:54
  Even Utilities and Real Estate had a rough day , falling 1.7 percent and 1.3 percent respectively .
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  Now , why is this happening ?
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  We have three big forces at play .
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  First , there are rising tensions between the U.S.
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  and Iran , which has pushed WTI crude oil toward 66 dollars and 62 cents a barrel .
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  That is great for energy stocks but tough for the broader economy .
• 2:19
  Second , we have a bit of a scare in the private credit market .
• 2:24
  Blue Owl Capital , symbol OWL , halted redemptions in one of its funds , and that has people worried about a liquidity crunch , which caused a sharp selloff for Blackstone , symbol BX .
• 2:35
  Third , everyone is holding their breath for the PCE inflation data coming out today .
• 2:40
  Headline inflation is hovering around 2.8 percent , and the Federal Reserve is keeping rates steady for now .
• 2:47
  Looking ahead , all eyes are on Nvidia , symbol NVDA .
• 2:52
  They report earnings next Wednesday , February 25th , and that will be the ultimate test for the AI market , especially since we have seen 300 million dollars leave the big tech ETFs this month .
• 3:04
  But it is not all gloomy !
• 3:06
  Deere , ticker DE , jumped 11.6 percent yesterday because construction demand is so strong , and Walmart is trading near new highs .
• 3:15
  Even Gold , through the GLD ETF , has crossed the 5,000 dollar per ounce mark for the first time ever !
• 3:23
  This reflects some deepseated anxiety among investors .
• 3:27
  So , what should we do with our money ?
• 3:29
  First , I recommend looking at your core portfolio .
• 3:33
  If you are heavy in tech through the QQQ or SPY , you might want to move some of that exposure into the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF , or VTI .
• 3:43
  It includes smaller companies that are part of that realworld economy we talked about and provides a better hedge against tech losses .
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  Second , definitely consider overweighting the Energy sector through the XLE ETF or individual giants like Exxon Mobil .
• 4:00
  With the geopolitical risks we are seeing , Energy is the clear momentum leader for 2026 and acts as a great inflation hedge .
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  Third , do not ignore international markets .
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  The Vanguard Total International Stock ETF , VXUS , and international real estate through VNQI look like good deals right now .
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  International REITs are yielding over 4 percent and offer a great way to diversify away from U.S.
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  tech .
• 4:29
  Finally , for safety , keep an eye on the iShares 20 plus Year Treasury Bond ETF , or TLT .
• 4:37
  Its yield is near 4.85 percent , which is very competitive .
• 4:42
  Combine that with some Gold through GLD to protect yourself from any surprises in the Middle East .
• 4:49
  One quick tip : you might want to avoid Blackstone for a bit until this private credit situation settles down .
• 4:55
  That is it for this morning's update !
• 4:58
  I am Penny Profits , and this has been Spy Trader .
• 5:01
  Stay smart , stay diversified , and I will talk to you in a few hours !