Latest / HPK Provident Advisors: The Weekly Bull / Free Money In Your 401(k) And People Still Skip It
Transcript
- 0:03SPEAKER_00: Welcome to Friday Live.
- 0:04SPEAKER_00: Every Friday, some partners of HPK Provenant get together and discuss what we're seeing going on in the markets, the economy, and some financial planning topics.
- 0:11SPEAKER_00: So with me today, Mr.
- 0:12SPEAKER_00: David Harper.
- 0:13SPEAKER_00: David, how are you doing?
- 0:15SPEAKER_00: Doing well, Mr.
- 0:16SPEAKER_01: Mike.
- 0:17SPEAKER_01: Thank you very much.
- 0:18SPEAKER_01: And it is a beautiful day.
- 0:21SPEAKER_01: For uh, we're in the fall now.
- 0:24SPEAKER_01: Yeah, always we don't get much changes seasons down here in Florida, okay.
- 0:31SPEAKER_01: But we are certainly looking forward to a little cooler weather.
- 0:35SPEAKER_01: Um, I'm sure uh most of our folks uh in Western PA would prefer uh some from less rain, and I hope that they get a chance to dry out some soon.
- 0:48SPEAKER_01: Um but I'll be heading up to Cincinnati next week um for a family reunion.
- 0:54SPEAKER_01: So I'm looking very much looking forward to that.
- 0:56SPEAKER_01: Good.
- 0:58SPEAKER_01: Super.
- 0:59SPEAKER_00: Well, if I told you that in the last month or so, the 10 years up 50 basis points to about 521, 5.21 percent, and energy is up about 35, 40 percent.
- 1:14SPEAKER_00: Where do you think the market would be?
- 1:17SPEAKER_01: I think the market would not be very appreciative of that.
- 1:21SPEAKER_00: Well, in this case, you'd be wrong.
- 1:24SPEAKER_00: But I uh I'm happy to be wrong, Mike.
- 1:27SPEAKER_00: I can empathize with your concern over it because I am surprised.
- 1:32SPEAKER_00: Uh, we see another uptick on the tenure today, up to five almost 522, and both the SP 500 and the NASDAQ are up about a quarter of a percent.
- 1:45SPEAKER_00: So I talked a last week about this uh descending triangle.
- 1:51SPEAKER_00: Can you see that, David?
- 1:53SPEAKER_00: Yes, yeah.
- 1:55SPEAKER_00: So after last Wednesday, briefly violating to the downside, it looks like that was a premature move.
- 2:03SPEAKER_00: Um, we now look like we were really decisively breaking out on the upside.
- 2:08SPEAKER_00: Um, today we are just getting back above that level.
- 2:12SPEAKER_00: I am a little skeptical.
- 2:15SPEAKER_00: Um I did do a rebalance uh last, I guess that was on Monday, which kind of marked the the high recently.
- 2:26SPEAKER_00: And and what I mean by a rebalance, because I know not everyone's familiar with the terms, you let your, so say for an example, um you have a 6040 portfolio, 60% stocks, 40% bonds.
- 2:40SPEAKER_00: If you let those allocations rimet for a while when equities are doing so good, that might bring your equity exposure up to say 65, 70%, and your bonds go down.
- 2:51SPEAKER_00: So a rebalance is just bringing those allocations back to your longer-term risk profile.
- 2:58SPEAKER_00: Um, now we do let the equities run a little bit more, especially on the taxable accounts, because everything has a tax consequence.
- 3:05SPEAKER_00: But and and then some of the, I mean, some of our positions have just run so much that it's just prudent to take some of that off the table.
- 3:13SPEAKER_00: But um, yeah, right now I may I'm a little skeptical that um we hold at these levels with how high uh bond yields are, how high oil, and it seems like the Fed's gonna be going based on the two-year another.
- 3:29SPEAKER_00: I mean, this is signaling four, potentially four rate hikes in the coming year and a half.
- 3:36SPEAKER_00: Well, this is a two-year, so technically two years, but it's it's really a shorter term predictor of that.
- 3:42SPEAKER_00: Um, the good news is though, the 10-year treasury is extremely overbought, so we could see some relief there.
- 3:49SPEAKER_00: Um on the economic and and and going back to I may reduce some of our tactical position, especially in the retirement accounts.
- 4:00SPEAKER_00: My only hesitation with that is I I wouldn't put it past the president to put in some positive stimulus or um, you know, try to get some more definitive progress on ending the war in Iran, which could bring oil prices down, put the bed the Fed in a better position to bring yeah.
- 4:24SPEAKER_00: And I mean, we we saw some of that this week where you know we're reopening some peace talks and and that kind of thing.
- 4:32SPEAKER_00: Um so I think oil is down to about 93 a barrel today.
- 4:37SPEAKER_00: Um, so that's my only hesitation, reducing more equity exposure at this point.
- 4:44SPEAKER_00: Um, I don't know.
- 4:45SPEAKER_00: I'm still I think I'm still inclined to do it on the retirement account.
- 4:48SPEAKER_00: I'm just trying to trying to see the timing of that.
- 4:53SPEAKER_00: I mean, the the other day it was really looking like we it was another premature breakout here and we would trend lower, but you know, even with the rates up, we continue to march higher on the equity markets.
- 5:07SPEAKER_01: Um, there wasn't much like it appears to us, it appears.
- 5:12SPEAKER_01: I mean, most people when we manage their money, most people are very they remember how they lost money, uh they don't really remember how much they gained.
- 5:24SPEAKER_01: Oh, it's you know, what have you what have you made for me lately?
- 5:28SPEAKER_01: So the the loss, you know, uh the the loss of principle, the loss of uh money is is much more psychologically uh imprinted upon people's brain than the other piece.
- 5:39SPEAKER_01: And that's that's part of the reason why we're we're more cautious of trying to preserve and keep uh things.
- 5:46SPEAKER_01: And we've also learned way back from 2008, it's never bad to never bad to realize a profit when it's there.
- 5:54SPEAKER_00: So and not to uh alarm people with the resemblance, but the tenure is now the highest level dating back to about 2007.
- 6:06SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
- 6:07SPEAKER_01: But we do not see a repeat of 2008 at this point.
- 6:10SPEAKER_01: Let us let us be very clear on that one.
- 6:13SPEAKER_01: But now you can understand part of our concern, part of our wanting to follow those 10-year treasuries is that yeah, we're in that territory.
- 6:23SPEAKER_00: And I mean, uh a big argument with that, besides the um element of, you know, that's what companies and consumers borrow at, or I mean, you know, it's tied to that that longer term rate.
- 6:36SPEAKER_00: Um, the other thing is, you know, now you can get five percent on a treasury bond.
- 6:43SPEAKER_00: So every incremental amount that rises further, it's just more competition for equities, where you can get a essentially risk-free rate for depending on if you believe the government will pay back its debts as opposed to, you know, depending on the environment, 8% in the SP 500.
- 7:08SPEAKER_00: So you're starting to get some more competition there.
- 7:11SPEAKER_00: Um, but yeah, so this week we didn't get a lot of economic data.
- 7:15SPEAKER_00: We had some, I think, housing starts and uh existing home sales came in a little better than expected.
- 7:23SPEAKER_00: Uh durable goods came in better than expected, but a pretty weak reading overall.
- 7:28SPEAKER_00: Next week it's really gonna pick up.
- 7:30SPEAKER_00: Um, let me go through what we're looking for next week.
- 7:34SPEAKER_00: We have on the 29th, we have consumer confidence and job openings.
- 7:39SPEAKER_00: Job openings look like they're expected to tick down a little bit, but still an overall healthy level.
- 7:45SPEAKER_00: We'll get the GDP final read, which is expected to come in at 2.1% annualized.
- 7:53SPEAKER_00: We'll get the core PC deflator, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
- 7:58SPEAKER_00: Looks like it's going to come in slightly higher than last month, but just marginally at 0.28.
- 8:03SPEAKER_00: That is ticking up a tenth on an annualized basis to 3.4.
- 8:08SPEAKER_00: And then we're also seeing a rise in good part to the the oil prices.
- 8:14SPEAKER_00: And this is for the month of August.
- 8:16SPEAKER_00: So they are a little gated in this figure.
- 8:19SPEAKER_00: Um, but yeah, headline 0.39, expected to take up a tenth also to 3.8%.
- 8:26SPEAKER_00: Um, so well above the Fed's target.
- 8:28SPEAKER_00: Um, I don't think uh I mean, I mean, like the latest CPI ratings haven't been that bad.
- 8:35SPEAKER_00: And then the if you um just take the last three months annualized, we're actually about um pretty close to that inflation target.
- 8:44SPEAKER_00: And then on Thursday, we'll get the highest of manufacturing numbers supposed to expand to 55, healthy number, and then the jobs numbers on Friday.
- 8:53SPEAKER_00: So um average hourly earnings are expected to stay at uh 0.3%.
- 9:00SPEAKER_00: And we're looking at 80,000 for non-farm payrolls.
- 9:04SPEAKER_00: That's about half of the last month, but um, I think that was we'll probably see that one come down in the revisions.
- 9:12SPEAKER_00: Um, these numbers have been so volatile though, that you kind of have to you really have to take a couple months and average them out to you know, there's the seasonal components that they try to adjust for, which doesn't seem to work out very well.
- 9:27SPEAKER_00: Um, so yeah, I think the better approach is take three, four, or five months and average them out.
- 9:33SPEAKER_00: Um yeah, we'll see how the labor market handles um if we do end up getting another three rate increases in the next year.
- 9:44SPEAKER_00: Uh I think the economy could be a little vulnerable if that happens, but that's just one person's opinion.
- 9:52unknown: Okay.
- 9:53SPEAKER_00: So getting to our blog posts, David, you want to touch on these?
- 9:57SPEAKER_01: Very much.
- 9:58SPEAKER_01: Uh uh Brian put this out, our other partner.
- 10:02SPEAKER_01: Uh this is something we you really should take advantage of.
- 10:07SPEAKER_01: You know, Mike, if you found a good sale on a nice ribeye, would you pick up a couple?
- 10:16SPEAKER_00: Most likely.
- 10:19SPEAKER_01: Uh you know, then I'm always amazed at uh sometimes uh we're where if if you were if you get a chance for a for free money, uh people leave it on the table.
- 10:32SPEAKER_01: And that's the purpose of of taking advantage of your of your 401k or or your retirement program at work.
- 10:40SPEAKER_01: Okay, a lot of these uh 401ks will give you uh the employer will add and depending on how good their prospects are, and companies are making money right now, and so they want to try to pass that on to for morale purposes and other people, okay.
- 10:58SPEAKER_01: Um that they'll they'll match some of the employer contribution, and a lot of these 401ks will not put money in.
- 11:07SPEAKER_01: The employer will the employer will not put money in unless the employee participates.
- 11:14SPEAKER_01: So uh typical rule of thumb is like 50 cents on the dollar for every dollar that uh an employee contributes to their 401k, the employer a lot of cases they'll match 50 cents on that up to a certain percentage, usually about four percent, six percent.
- 11:33SPEAKER_01: So if you put in six percent, your employer will put in three percent.
- 11:37SPEAKER_01: That's a nine percent that's a nine percent.
- 11:40SPEAKER_01: Why give up that uh free money of three percent?
- 11:44SPEAKER_01: Now, obviously, there's vesting that goes on.
- 11:47SPEAKER_01: Um, I always found it a little curious.
- 11:52SPEAKER_01: You know, if if you're a governmental employee uh and your vesting schedule is longer, three to four years sometimes.
- 12:01SPEAKER_01: Whereas if you are a private uh comp, if if your company is private, um private industry, uh, that that vesting schedule is sometimes as little as one year, um, no, no more than two years.
- 12:14SPEAKER_01: Uh, that if you continue to work at at your company, um, whatever they contribute is gonna be yours after two years or so forth.
- 12:25SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 12:26SPEAKER_01: Uh that's that's called vesting.
- 12:28SPEAKER_00: Well, yeah, so you can kind of think of that as like a lockup period for the employer contribution before you can take it out.
- 12:36SPEAKER_01: Yes, and it's always good to take advantage of the employer match, okay, and get in a nice habit of adding, you know, you you plan for today, prepare for tomorrow.
- 12:51SPEAKER_01: I I've heard that somewhere, Mike.
- 12:54SPEAKER_01: You know, that sounds like a pretty good thing, you know.
- 12:56SPEAKER_01: You plan for today, participate in your 401k.
- 13:00SPEAKER_01: Uh don't let it pass you by.
- 13:03SPEAKER_01: Do it now.
- 13:04SPEAKER_01: Don't wait for a decade, don't wait for you know two decades and start, then start thinking, oh, maybe I should start to do something about my retirement.
- 13:14SPEAKER_00: And psychologically, it's a lot easier for people to just you know set it up.
- 13:19SPEAKER_00: They don't see it hit their bank account, it just comes directly out, as opposed to, okay, you know, I've saved some money, now I'm gonna invest on a monthly basis or put a lump sum in the market.
- 13:32SPEAKER_00: Um, it just that consistent investing um tends to be much more beneficial for people.
- 13:39SPEAKER_00: Um, you get the dollar cost averaging aspect, you don't think about it, and you just kind of well, I would say set it and forget it, but you really should review your allocations at least on an annual basis in your 401k.
- 13:54SPEAKER_01: And you should consider, um, you know, and feel free to talk to us.
- 13:58SPEAKER_01: Uh, there some employers will offer you the 401k Roth option, uh, where it'll be post-tax monies and and it'll grow tax-free, and we take it out, it'll be tax-free as well.
- 14:11SPEAKER_01: They used to always be pre-tax monies, so on the pre-tax contributions, you'd be surprised if you have a hundred dollars coming out of your pay towards your 401k, to realize that your pay is really uh in most cases, it's only less uh than$70 uh because the pre-tax motion notion of it.
- 14:32SPEAKER_01: So we can't keep you always heard me say this before.
- 14:35SPEAKER_01: You we can't keep Uncle Sam out of our pockets, but we can limit what he takes out, and part of that is take advantage of these 401ks, especially if they have that batching possibility.
- 14:46SPEAKER_01: Uh, is it like do you think it's worthwhile to do a 401k even if the employer does not match?
- 14:53SPEAKER_00: Um, I think you should be investing in some sort of retirement vehicle.
- 14:58SPEAKER_00: Um, you do get the higher contribution limits in the 401k.
- 15:03SPEAKER_00: So I think it's still beneficial to take advantage of, even if the employer is not matching.
- 15:09SPEAKER_01: It's it's a case-by-case situation.
- 15:12SPEAKER_01: And in most cases, well to Mike's point, you certainly should be paying attention to uh your retirement plans.
- 15:20SPEAKER_01: Um, and we'll have more to say on that later, as you know, starting in January of 2027, the uh the Trump IRA accounts will be uh available.
- 15:31SPEAKER_01: Uh so we'll have more to talk on on that later, but you really should not consider social security as your only means of supporting and supplementing your retirement.
- 15:44SPEAKER_01: Not a good idea, even when social security was set up, it was never meant to be your sole source of income for retirement, never was meant for that.
- 15:55SPEAKER_00: So I'm gonna be happy if I get any of that.
- 16:00SPEAKER_01: Come on, Mike.
- 16:01SPEAKER_01: Yeah, uh you um my my sociology background is starting to kick in.
- 16:09SPEAKER_01: Uh that uh talks about um with um Wittgenstein and his uh his philosophy that there's there's a there's a social cost for every um governmental pro program or so forth.
- 16:26SPEAKER_01: Do you think these uh uh these Trump accounts for for kids and now you can do it for older children and now adults?
- 16:35SPEAKER_00: Uh is that that's the idea of trying to is that is that idea that that's trying to take some of the burden off Social Security and you know adjust it in the future.
- 16:46SPEAKER_00: Maybe that means people born before 2030 aren't getting it, or maybe they'll adjust, maybe I won't get it until I'm 80 years old.
- 16:57SPEAKER_00: Who knows?
- 16:58SPEAKER_00: I'm not the social security person on our team.
- 17:02SPEAKER_01: Brian's a little more confident in the in the program than I am, but and and we're we're fortunate to have his expertise available uh again.
- 17:13SPEAKER_01: Um long and short, take advantage of funding your retirement as soon as you're able to.
- 17:21SPEAKER_01: The more you put away now, uh the more options you have later.
- 17:26SPEAKER_01: Good point.
- 17:27SPEAKER_01: All right, and Mike, there's another blog that we had this week.
- 17:32SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's uh planning for your not demise, but you know, uh decline.
- 17:41SPEAKER_01: You know, this was one of my favorite blogs, Mike.
- 17:45SPEAKER_01: You realize that?
- 17:47SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
- 17:48SPEAKER_01: One of my favorite blogs because it didn't unpack anything.
- 17:54SPEAKER_01: It just it just gives you the headlines, you know.
- 17:57SPEAKER_01: Uh four ways to fund your ex your long-term care.
- 18:01SPEAKER_01: You know, you can go with a traditional long-term care policy.
- 18:05SPEAKER_01: Okay, you can have a hybrid, uh, where you have life insurance or variable annuity or annuities that help uh stretch your dollars for long-term care.
- 18:17SPEAKER_00: You can spend all your money and rely on the government in Medicaid.
- 18:21SPEAKER_01: Not a good idea, okay.
- 18:23SPEAKER_01: Or you can self-fund.
- 18:25SPEAKER_01: Um most people end up with the self-funding part, and then they end up into the Medicaid piece.
- 18:34SPEAKER_00: Um for good reason, long-term care is uh pretty expensive.
- 18:41SPEAKER_01: It's we all have those uh horror stories where we know of relatives that have been in a nursing home for 20 years, uh but uh by and large, the average day of a per of a uh occupant of a nursing home facility is is usually less than five months, three to five months.
- 19:03SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 19:04SPEAKER_01: Well, we are an aging population.
- 19:08SPEAKER_01: Uh people are living longer.
- 19:10SPEAKER_01: Uh there's people are living with more vitality, but uh you should uh pay attention to this.
- 19:20SPEAKER_01: And these four these four headlights here, um volumes, books have been written on each one of them.
- 19:31SPEAKER_01: So so this is my favorite, this is one of my favorite blogs because it just sort of like there, boom, and it doesn't really say anything else about it.
- 19:42SPEAKER_00: So um um yeah, the the annuity companies are getting pretty creative in in this field where you can have your guaranteed income, and then there's certain provisions or uh riders that you can add to um really expand that amount to long-term care.
- 20:03SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that second bullet point, the hybrid life and extended care policies, uh, is you're gonna be seeing new products come out.
- 20:12SPEAKER_01: Uh, insurance companies are really trying to uh extend people's dollars.
- 20:18SPEAKER_01: So there's places where you can put in a hundred thousand dollars into it, and again, these are annuities, you put a hundred thousand dollars into annuity, and based on your health at that time, it would either be doubled for long-term care or even tripled.
- 20:34SPEAKER_01: Uh and there's more of these hybrid, uh these creative ways to come around.
- 20:41SPEAKER_01: Um, you just need to ask some questions.
- 20:44SPEAKER_01: If we can be of service to you, give us a call and we'll tell you what what options may be available to you.
- 20:53SPEAKER_01: Uh I came across Mike.
- 20:54SPEAKER_01: Uh, just this week, uh I was talking with uh one of our clients who um early early stages of Alzheimer's, and she's gonna be doing some home health care.
- 21:05SPEAKER_00: So already she is unable to do two of the five activities of daily living, which qualifies for and that's yeah, that's typically the threshold to access your long-term care, correct?
- 21:17SPEAKER_01: Correct, correct.
- 21:18SPEAKER_01: And some of them a lot of times there's always an elimination period of 90 days, sometimes 120 days.
- 21:24SPEAKER_01: Um and before they started paying anything, and some will only pay, they won't pay for assisted living, they won't pay for uh they'll just pay for a nursing home, so forth.
- 21:36SPEAKER_01: But here uh she has an old annuity from 1998.
- 21:40SPEAKER_01: Uh okay.
- 21:42SPEAKER_01: Uh, we're gonna end up 1035 exchanging that into this new annuity where uh she it doesn't ask any uh there isn't any underwriting, they don't ask any questions.
- 21:53SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 21:54SPEAKER_01: Where if she does it in a nursing home, the amount of money that she's gonna get for this uh this annuity is gonna be.
- 22:00SPEAKER_01: Automatically doubled.
- 22:01SPEAKER_01: So if she's getting a thousand dollars a month right now from the annuity, well, when when we work it out, she gets a thousand dollars a month from annuity.
- 22:09SPEAKER_01: Should she go to a nursing home?
- 22:10SPEAKER_01: She's gonna get two thousand dollars a month for up to five years.
- 22:15SPEAKER_01: And if it doesn't if her if her contract value goes to zero, then they'll revert back to her original thousand dollars a month.
- 22:22SPEAKER_01: Uh there's a number of policies, uh annuity policies that are doing that, okay.
- 22:28SPEAKER_01: Um those did not exist in 1998, those did not exist in 2005, they exist in 2020, 2025, 2026.
- 22:40SPEAKER_00: Okay, and the 1035 allows you to move it into a new annuity vehicle without having to realize any taxes on it, correct?
- 22:49SPEAKER_01: Correct, correct.
- 22:51SPEAKER_01: Uh with the whole idea is that we are getting older.
- 22:56SPEAKER_01: Uh there are some products, not for everybody, but there's some products that could that are that could be very beneficial.
- 23:03SPEAKER_01: Uh, and should you pay attention to some of these hybrid pieces?
- 23:09SPEAKER_01: Yes, yes, it's not, and again, if you get two thousand dollars, uh uh that's not gonna pay for all your nursing home costs.
- 23:17SPEAKER_01: It's not it's but it'll help stretch those dollars longer, and that's that's the idea.
- 23:25SPEAKER_01: It's not gonna pay for all of your needs, but uh that's that's a thousand dollars less that you have to come up with.
- 23:33SPEAKER_01: Um sort of like going back to the prior point about taking advantage of your uh employer adding to your 401k.
- 23:42SPEAKER_01: Here's another piece.
- 23:43SPEAKER_01: This is this is free money on the table.
- 23:46SPEAKER_01: You don't have there's not it's not a writer on this one.
- 23:49SPEAKER_01: Uh other ones do have writers, so pay attention to that.
- 23:53SPEAKER_01: And uh like I said, volumes can be written on this.
- 23:58SPEAKER_01: Uh so uh pretty complicated circumstance.
- 24:03SPEAKER_01: Don't you don't have to go it alone, is our point.
- 24:07SPEAKER_01: Seek out advice.
- 24:10SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 24:11SPEAKER_00: So well, I hope everyone has a great weekend.
- 24:16SPEAKER_00: And before I flip on disclosures, everyone get their rest.
- 24:18SPEAKER_00: Because, like I mentioned, there's a plethora of important economic data coming out next week.
- 24:23SPEAKER_00: So we'll have plenty to talk about next Friday on Friday Live.
- 24:27SPEAKER_03: Everyone take care.
- 24:29SPEAKER_03: Security is offered through LPL Financial LLC, member FINRA and SIPC.org.
- 24:34SPEAKER_03: Advisory services offered through LPL Financial LLC, a registered investment advisor.
- 24:40SPEAKER_03: Brian Peluso, Michael Kutch, and David Harper are registered representatives of LPL Financial LLC.
- 24:46SPEAKER_03: Content discussed is for informational purposes only and not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment strategy.
- 24:55SPEAKER_03: Any opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial or its affiliates.
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- 25:06SPEAKER_03: This communication may include links or references to third-party websites.
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