Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - Best Bets for The Masters

Transcript

The Favorites - Best Bets for The Masters · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Value and
0:12
Speaker 1: Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of
0:16
Speaker 1: the Action Network. We're just coming out of the college
0:22
Speaker 1: basketball National championship game, the Yukon Huskies one. They beat
0:28
Speaker 1: San Diego State thirty five minutes from my house, as
0:32
Speaker 1: stores Yukon campus erupted in near riots, and really proud
0:39
Speaker 1: of that. I am joined as I am every episode
0:43
Speaker 1: by my BFF, my companion, my combinederate professional better coming
0:48
Speaker 1: to me all the way from Hawaii. E mister Simon Hunter.
0:54
Speaker 1: Heto Simon al hot shot. Nothing makes sense in life.
0:58
Speaker 1: It really doesn't when you were learning the coneticut. Yukon
1:01
Speaker 1: has five national titles. It just what is happening in
1:05
Speaker 1: college sports? I don't know, it doesn't really make sense.
1:07
Speaker 1: We all know about the women's but the men's side.
1:10
Speaker 1: Are they one of the biggest best dynasties in college
1:12
Speaker 1: basketball in the last what thirty years? Chat? Twenty years?
1:15
Speaker 1: I mean years? Five titles, twenty five years. Do the
1:20
Speaker 1: math the other teams that have as many titles as them.
1:24
Speaker 1: We're talking about Kentucky, We're talking about UCLA, We're talking
1:29
Speaker 1: about Kansas, We're talking about Indiana, We're talking about Duke.
1:33
Speaker 1: So there is no way, there is no way. The
1:38
Speaker 1: Connecticut is not a blue blood program. It just is.
1:43
Speaker 1: And like we like we said, check keep it simple.
1:46
Speaker 1: Just bet the blue team and you will win multiple
1:49
Speaker 1: national championships. And that's college basketball at its core. Just
1:52
Speaker 1: bet the blue team. People, I overthought it. I went
1:55
Speaker 1: with the team that I should have just went with Yukon.
1:58
Speaker 1: I think I went with Yukon in my final four.
2:02
Speaker 1: But they were clearly what one of the best teams
2:04
Speaker 1: we've ever seen run through a national tournament. They just
2:07
Speaker 1: dominated him, blow out every team they came across. So
2:09
Speaker 1: people will get down on them because they didn't run
2:11
Speaker 1: through that heart of a gauntlet, but that's that's sports.
2:14
Speaker 1: You have to beat the team in front of you,
2:16
Speaker 1: and that's the hardest part is making the buckets in
2:18
Speaker 1: this clutch moment. So the Ukon awesome. Loved it, loved
2:22
Speaker 1: the college basketball coverage that we did all year in
2:24
Speaker 1: Action Network. Some news, some news to share. We're gonna
2:30
Speaker 1: get to some master's content with Spencer Aggiar who's been
2:34
Speaker 1: one of the analysts on the Links and Locks podcast
2:38
Speaker 1: on Action Network, and he's got a great story. Also
2:41
Speaker 1: the reigning Fantasy Sports Writer of the Year when it
2:44
Speaker 1: comes to golf, the fswa Fantasy Sports Writer of the Year.
2:51
Speaker 1: We've got some news though. We know that a lot
2:53
Speaker 1: of folks listen to us directly through the Herd Feed.
2:59
Speaker 1: I've been telling people subscribe directly to the Favorites because
3:03
Speaker 1: here's what's happened it. Starting April seventeenth. April seventeenth, you
3:08
Speaker 1: will have to subscribe to the Favorites Feed if you
3:12
Speaker 1: want to hear this podcast, we will not be in
3:16
Speaker 1: the Herd Feed. You will have to subscribe to the
3:19
Speaker 1: Favorites Feed. If you want to hear this podcast again
3:22
Speaker 1: through the rest of the offseason for the NFL into
3:24
Speaker 1: the NFL season, subscribe to the Favorites Feed. Our relationship
3:28
Speaker 1: with Volume will continue happily. We will still be on AMP.
3:32
Speaker 1: We will still be all over the Volumes incredibly massive
3:37
Speaker 1: YouTube channel. Come fall. You will still hear me on
3:41
Speaker 1: Cowherds podcast. You'll hear other action analysts like Stucky and
3:47
Speaker 1: Colin Wilson on other NFL and called football podcasts. But
3:50
Speaker 1: if you want to listen to the Favorites as a
3:53
Speaker 1: podcast on Spotify or Apple pods or wherever. Starting April seventeenth,
3:58
Speaker 1: as we get into the final days before the draft
4:01
Speaker 1: and then beyond into NFL season, you must subscribe directly
4:06
Speaker 1: to the Favorites. We love the Volume. We're excited to
4:09
Speaker 1: continue the relationship in a variety of ways. They've got
4:13
Speaker 1: incredible podcasts on their feed, including and if people aren't
4:18
Speaker 1: listening to this, they should be Hoops Tonight with Jason Timp.
4:22
Speaker 1: We have had on our podcast many many times that
4:26
Speaker 1: thing is blown up. But you look at Jason timp
4:28
Speaker 1: videos on YouTube, you watch his videos on Twitter, you
4:32
Speaker 1: listen to his podcast, It's like the audience what had
4:35
Speaker 1: started at and where it is now is insane. Good
4:40
Speaker 1: for Jason, he's really good. Hoops Tonight, he's on AMP
4:43
Speaker 1: after NBA games at night. He goes live for a
4:46
Speaker 1: lot of different things on YouTube. He's amazing. So go
4:48
Speaker 1: listen to that on the Volume feed. Subscribe directly to
4:51
Speaker 1: the Favorites. That's where we will be starting April seventeenth.
4:57
Speaker 1: But let's get into it as we do. As I said,
5:03
Speaker 1: We've got Spencer Aggiar, co host of Links and Locks,
5:07
Speaker 1: the reigning Fantasy Sports Writer of America, golf writer of
5:11
Speaker 1: the year. It's got a massively smart betting model, Simon.
5:18
Speaker 1: He's gonna make a smart about the Masters this week,
5:20
Speaker 1: which is a great way to transition from the hectic
5:24
Speaker 1: seasons of NFL college football, college basketball. People like to
5:29
Speaker 1: bet in the Master. Spencer, welcome, Chad Simon. It's an
5:32
Speaker 1: absolute pleasure to do this show with both of you guys.
5:36
Speaker 1: Spencer's about fifteen years old. Seriously, Simon, look at this guy.
5:42
Speaker 1: You can't see him on zoom, you can't see him
5:43
Speaker 1: in the app. You're gonna have to watch the video.
5:45
Speaker 1: But seriously, the guy looks like he's about fifteen years old.
5:48
Speaker 1: This is the next wave though, this is the new
5:50
Speaker 1: movement chat. I'm telling you, the Internet changes everything. This kid,
5:54
Speaker 1: he's got a good story. He's gonna tell us he's
5:55
Speaker 1: been gamblin. I mean shit, he's probably still watching cartoons
5:59
Speaker 1: the first time he a bet in a sports book.
6:01
Speaker 1: So definitely a definitely a cool story. And this is
6:03
Speaker 1: what I always t help people. If you want to
6:06
Speaker 1: get into this business, you build a model, and you're
6:09
Speaker 1: struggle and you grind, and then the next part comes.
6:11
Speaker 1: You need the model to start though. So yeah, Spencer's
6:14
Speaker 1: got a cool story, and I think a lot of
6:15
Speaker 1: people can take a lesson from it. Of no one
6:18
Speaker 1: just wakes up in this industry. You gotta grind, you
6:20
Speaker 1: gotta work harder shit, and you gotta get a model.
6:23
Speaker 1: I mean, there's no more of the old school. You
6:25
Speaker 1: gotta get contacts all this other stuff. Now, build a
6:27
Speaker 1: model first. Then you can make contacts and meet people
6:30
Speaker 1: along the way to help you get better. But definitely cool.
6:34
Speaker 1: Learn about Spencer and hearing his story, you Spencer tell it. Well,
6:38
Speaker 1: let me say this really fast. We're a gambling show here, obviously.
6:42
Speaker 1: Do you want to put an over under on how
6:44
Speaker 1: old I actually am? Yeah? I do. Actually, I want
6:49
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell to set the line. If you're listening on AMP,
6:52
Speaker 1: you can't hear when Matt Mitchell speaks. So I will
6:55
Speaker 1: tell everyone the line that Matt Mitchell sets on Spencer
7:01
Speaker 1: twenty three and a half. Matt Mitchell was set a
7:04
Speaker 1: line of twenty three and a half under gotta go
7:10
Speaker 1: under well. I mean it's a trap. Blind, I'll take
7:15
Speaker 1: the bait. Yeah, I think I'm because it all right.
7:20
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go under well. The line was ten off
7:24
Speaker 1: thirty three years old. Talk to you that you're thirty
7:29
Speaker 1: three years old. Are you kidding me? Yes? So I'll
7:33
Speaker 1: give you a little bit of my beast story here
7:35
Speaker 1: to get into this. So I started at a very
7:37
Speaker 1: young agent. I think Simon said that best when we're
7:40
Speaker 1: talking about creating models and doing this, and I'm sure
7:43
Speaker 1: my mother would love me telling the story on air.
7:46
Speaker 1: I mean, it's you know, it is what it is
7:47
Speaker 1: at this point, I guess. But I got onto this
7:50
Speaker 1: space and I'm born and raised in Vegas, so I've
7:54
Speaker 1: had a lot of people that in this town. I
7:57
Speaker 1: am close to family friends with and one of my
8:00
Speaker 1: closest family friends we used to go travel to Montana
8:04
Speaker 1: with him on his private jet and go do things.
8:07
Speaker 1: I asked Simon this, I don't know if you know Chat.
8:08
Speaker 1: Do you know the late great Chip Reese professional poker player.
8:13
Speaker 1: No surprisingly one of the best sports betters of all
8:17
Speaker 1: time too, but very sharp guys. So I was in
8:20
Speaker 1: this space before I even really knew that I was
8:22
Speaker 1: in the space of sports betting and gambling with it.
8:25
Speaker 1: But you know, I was a good athlete when I
8:27
Speaker 1: was young. Kind of cut this bug at twelve or thirteen, which,
8:31
Speaker 1: funny enough, Chat one of the first books I ever
8:34
Speaker 1: put purchased, So I had two books here. I liked poker.
8:38
Speaker 1: I bought Doyle Brunson Supersystem, and then I got into
8:41
Speaker 1: sports betting. I bought your book of the Odds. Those
8:44
Speaker 1: are the first two books I ever read getting into
8:47
Speaker 1: this space. And you know, I think when you're new
8:49
Speaker 1: into it, and Simon was alluding to with it, you
8:51
Speaker 1: don't really know where to start with it, and it's
8:54
Speaker 1: one of those things where you'll get better over time.
8:56
Speaker 1: And I kind of realized through trying to figure out
8:59
Speaker 1: what was the best way to go back. And I
9:00
Speaker 1: was telling Simon this off air, you kind of do
9:03
Speaker 1: things incorrectly at first, and like, to me, it was
9:06
Speaker 1: very basic of how I was building a model, Like
9:08
Speaker 1: I was throwing stats in it really wasn't yielding the
9:10
Speaker 1: results that I wanted on it, but it was at
9:13
Speaker 1: least doing something to start with it. And as time
9:17
Speaker 1: goes on, you get a better understanding of, well, it's
9:19
Speaker 1: not just about beating a closing line number, Like when
9:22
Speaker 1: you can be the one that starts beating the closing
9:24
Speaker 1: line number yourself and you're the one that's doing that,
9:27
Speaker 1: Like that's how this is all turns into this maturation
9:30
Speaker 1: process of trying to do it. Like you know, I
9:32
Speaker 1: think I'm a little bit different in this space than
9:35
Speaker 1: most people that are located inside of it. I've always
9:38
Speaker 1: believed in teaching someone how to become a better gambler
9:41
Speaker 1: or over straight pouting picks. It doesn't mean that I
9:43
Speaker 1: don't still provide a betting card for any of my
9:45
Speaker 1: followers to view. But as you guys know, prices will
9:49
Speaker 1: vary between shops. I essentially use a handful of books
9:53
Speaker 1: that are the most accessible to the public. I will
9:55
Speaker 1: release those numbers. I will release the prices that I have.
9:58
Speaker 1: I'm up over three hundred twenty. It's in golf since
10:00
Speaker 1: twenty seventeen, providing information for sites like Action Network. However,
10:05
Speaker 1: my real passion and how I tried to grow this
10:08
Speaker 1: space has come down to figure out how to generate
10:11
Speaker 1: closing line value for other people. It's one thing when
10:14
Speaker 1: you tail a pick, but it's a whole different ball
10:16
Speaker 1: game when you can run numbers of your own and
10:19
Speaker 1: land on answers without someone else's help. So we talked
10:22
Speaker 1: about my database a little bit of information. I update
10:25
Speaker 1: that weekly. I release my golf model on Twitter for
10:28
Speaker 1: someone to use themselves. Two things happen there. One, you
10:32
Speaker 1: can see where I stand on any player in the field.
10:35
Speaker 1: I'm a person that solely trusts my math in every
10:38
Speaker 1: single situation. I'm not a prototypical golf guy. I didn't
10:41
Speaker 1: play golf growing up. This is a mathematical answer that
10:44
Speaker 1: I get with it, and there's no hidden punches when
10:47
Speaker 1: you see my model, like what you have is what
10:49
Speaker 1: you get with it. And then two, I have added
10:52
Speaker 1: a feature where anybody out there that has access to
10:55
Speaker 1: my model can make a copy of it to see
10:57
Speaker 1: where their numbers might set for the week. So I
11:00
Speaker 1: think that helps lead a better path for sustainable growth
11:03
Speaker 1: for any better out there. And really that's been my
11:06
Speaker 1: goal in this space from day one, is peach people
11:08
Speaker 1: how to become better betters for themselves rather than just
11:12
Speaker 1: being the person that solely helts a pick where numbers
11:15
Speaker 1: are going to move. And we obviously have all those
11:18
Speaker 1: back end problems that come into place. So that's kind
11:21
Speaker 1: of been my passion since entering this side of the
11:23
Speaker 1: space since twenty seventeen, which I guess, according to you guys,
11:26
Speaker 1: would make me like, you know, like ten years old.
11:30
Speaker 1: So a couple of things number one at either or
11:34
Speaker 1: anything you said after you said you bought the odds
11:38
Speaker 1: when you were about twelve years old. Yeah, but let's
11:41
Speaker 1: say I was listening. It's almost like the way you're
11:44
Speaker 1: giving stuff away, you're a veritable robin hood of golf betting.
11:50
Speaker 1: I want people to find success here. It's very important
11:53
Speaker 1: to me. I've had my run in the sports betting
11:57
Speaker 1: world with it. Like I made a switch three years ago,
12:00
Speaker 1: so I was handicapping all sports and as I said,
12:03
Speaker 1: I'm in Vegas, so it's like a very nice central
12:05
Speaker 1: spot to be for the gambling mecca of the world there.
12:08
Speaker 1: But I made a switch three years ago where I
12:11
Speaker 1: wanted to become one hundred percent full time on the
12:13
Speaker 1: golf side of things. And you know that's where this
12:15
Speaker 1: content creation and releasing of the models and some of
12:18
Speaker 1: that has kind of blown up into the aspect that
12:21
Speaker 1: it has. And you talked about it a second ago, Chad,
12:24
Speaker 1: like winning the FSWA Golf Writer of the Year obviously
12:27
Speaker 1: propelled me to a different perspective here to where it
12:30
Speaker 1: allows me to do a show with you. It allowed
12:32
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell to be able to find me to bring
12:35
Speaker 1: me on to action networks, So you know, like Simon
12:38
Speaker 1: was saying at the beginning of this, also, it's one
12:40
Speaker 1: of those situations where nobody just pops up in is
12:44
Speaker 1: all of a sudden good. There's growing pains that you
12:46
Speaker 1: have to learn with. I'd like to think that I
12:48
Speaker 1: was naturally I guess better and had more understanding than
12:53
Speaker 1: maybe like like this was my calling in life to
12:56
Speaker 1: do this, But even still, I don't know one percent
13:00
Speaker 1: of the gambler at thirteen years old than I am
13:02
Speaker 1: right now at thirty three years old. And there's just
13:05
Speaker 1: so many tricks of the trades and so many things
13:07
Speaker 1: that you learn over the course of time. Tell us
13:12
Speaker 1: a little bit about your model before we get into
13:15
Speaker 1: some picks. Yeah, so I run things from a longer
13:18
Speaker 1: duration of time than I think most people do out there.
13:21
Speaker 1: I run it from a two year regression standpoint with it,
13:24
Speaker 1: so I will update that every single night. I'm not
13:26
Speaker 1: a real big course history person when it comes to golf.
13:30
Speaker 1: Obviously you get the current form and the course history
13:32
Speaker 1: thrown into the model. And that's kind of goes back
13:35
Speaker 1: to what I was talking about, Like anybody can make
13:37
Speaker 1: a copy of the model. They can change the weights
13:39
Speaker 1: however they want, so then they can get their own
13:41
Speaker 1: answers to it. But I'm a very course specific person,
13:45
Speaker 1: so I am building every single model to specifically try
13:48
Speaker 1: to mimic a course. I guess that would be the
13:50
Speaker 1: answer that you would give for football, of trying to
13:52
Speaker 1: build it against a defense or you know, a specific
13:55
Speaker 1: skill set of these golfers that fit the venue well.
13:58
Speaker 1: But I mean it has been my ace in the
14:01
Speaker 1: whole that I have been using for I mean, I
14:04
Speaker 1: guess we're at ten years of it now, but I
14:07
Speaker 1: mean I would say within the last like the last
14:09
Speaker 1: seven to ten years, this model has kind of taken
14:12
Speaker 1: on a mind of its own where this is my
14:16
Speaker 1: sole answer of everything with it. And I mean for
14:18
Speaker 1: every gambler, you have your secret sauce of how you
14:21
Speaker 1: run your numbers, and you're going to trust your data
14:24
Speaker 1: at the end of the day with it obviously, as
14:26
Speaker 1: you guys know, you're not going to be talked out
14:27
Speaker 1: of an answer when your numbers. Say one thing, now,
14:31
Speaker 1: how is betting the Master's different than betting the other tournaments?
14:33
Speaker 1: Is there a key to the masters at so much
14:35
Speaker 1: different than the other I mean, we can call them
14:37
Speaker 1: the other three majors, but you know you're factoring your
14:39
Speaker 1: model in the different courses. Does that plan into a
14:42
Speaker 1: factor that you know, it's the masters of the same
14:44
Speaker 1: spot every year. Being in the same spot every single
14:47
Speaker 1: year is really the key answer to this. Like golf
14:49
Speaker 1: is a growing sport, but it still has a niche audience.
14:52
Speaker 1: We will see that change over the next five years
14:54
Speaker 1: as people realize golf tournaments are, in my opinion, the
14:58
Speaker 1: ultimate gambling event since you get action and countless markets. Yeah,
15:02
Speaker 1: four days of excitement on gambling on the event from
15:04
Speaker 1: a pre tournament and in tournament perspective, obviously, anytime you
15:08
Speaker 1: talk about Tiger Woods playing an event, that's going to
15:10
Speaker 1: help raise the excitement level for everybody out there. But yeah,
15:14
Speaker 1: I mean, I think what you see is what you
15:15
Speaker 1: get with Augusta when I ran it from a weighted
15:18
Speaker 1: perspective and I said, I'm not a person that puts
15:20
Speaker 1: a lot of statistical course history into my model. Thirty
15:24
Speaker 1: percent of my weight this weekend, my model does come
15:26
Speaker 1: from a course history perspective, so it means something. And
15:30
Speaker 1: there's just certain expectations that have been extremely pronounced when
15:34
Speaker 1: we dive into this venue from a statistical perspective, I
15:37
Speaker 1: think you have wide open fairways. They're nearly twenty yards extended,
15:40
Speaker 1: and with on average, that's going to present this feel
15:43
Speaker 1: of a course that is I mean, I call it
15:45
Speaker 1: a long driver's paradise. I'm not so sure necessarily how
15:48
Speaker 1: much I want to go into that, and we'll talk
15:50
Speaker 1: about both ends of this answer here in a second,
15:51
Speaker 1: but I would say that particular skill will only take
15:55
Speaker 1: you so far because of the massive undulation and multiple
15:59
Speaker 1: tiered perspective of the putting surfaces on all eighteen holes
16:02
Speaker 1: that we have. That's really more of where the experience
16:05
Speaker 1: comes into play, and that's why we've seen players like
16:07
Speaker 1: Tiger Finds such success here. They just know where they
16:11
Speaker 1: can miss. They know every single caveat of how these
16:13
Speaker 1: greens will roll out. All of that's one of the
16:16
Speaker 1: reasons that the long term data has generated a six
16:19
Speaker 1: point five percent enhancement when we look into the dispersion
16:23
Speaker 1: of scoring for stroke skin around the green. Now, I
16:26
Speaker 1: don't want to make that sound like it's a death
16:28
Speaker 1: sentence for your game. I do think that if you're
16:30
Speaker 1: not good in that area, you're going to have to
16:32
Speaker 1: be elite in other areas. If you want to get
16:36
Speaker 1: accustomed to its unique layout here. But for me, it's
16:39
Speaker 1: overall a sharp short game that can scramble and salvage scores.
16:43
Speaker 1: I think three put avoidance on these fiery greens will
16:46
Speaker 1: be out of premium. And then the one thing I
16:48
Speaker 1: want to talk about with distance, because I think you
16:51
Speaker 1: can make an argument that it might be a little
16:52
Speaker 1: bit more impactful here. Obviously we have a long course
16:55
Speaker 1: to begin with, you have these wide open fairways. But
16:58
Speaker 1: really the answer to me comes down to it's a
17:01
Speaker 1: wetter Augusta than we have gotten in years past. There
17:05
Speaker 1: has been some changes that have been made to a
17:07
Speaker 1: few of these holes. There might be more of a
17:09
Speaker 1: prerequisite for distance here than we have historically gotten in
17:13
Speaker 1: the past. And I know most people that run their
17:15
Speaker 1: model are like very heavily weighted into the distance category.
17:20
Speaker 1: I'm never one that gets asked stuck into that loop here,
17:22
Speaker 1: But I did add an extra couple percent because of
17:26
Speaker 1: that reason. Are you a math genius? Like, how do
17:29
Speaker 1: you get into modeling? How are you building algorithms? How
17:34
Speaker 1: are you deciding what percentage to put on each kpi?
17:39
Speaker 1: For lack of a better term, I go back and
17:41
Speaker 1: look at all the historical data and I try to
17:45
Speaker 1: kind of backtrack a model to see what historically has
17:47
Speaker 1: been pronounced at a venue in the past. And that's
17:50
Speaker 1: kind of where I believe I have my edges. You
17:52
Speaker 1: look at all these venues in every single course requires
17:55
Speaker 1: something different. You have some venues where distance is going
17:57
Speaker 1: to be the prerequisite answer that you want. You're going
17:59
Speaker 1: to some courses where the proximity from one hundred to
18:02
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty yards might be. And I'm able
18:05
Speaker 1: to go back and find a dispersion of scoring totals
18:08
Speaker 1: that I run inside my database of this is where
18:11
Speaker 1: the top ten of the field have gained their strokes.
18:13
Speaker 1: This is where you know players that have found trouble
18:16
Speaker 1: have had those errors occur for them with it. So
18:19
Speaker 1: it's a lot of trial and error, it's a lot
18:21
Speaker 1: of back testing of these models to do it. But
18:23
Speaker 1: I mean to give you an answer there from the
18:25
Speaker 1: mass side of the equation, Like I'm self thought, is
18:28
Speaker 1: this is something that I've been doing for twenty years,
18:31
Speaker 1: where this isn't just some overnight thing that I threw together,
18:35
Speaker 1: Like there's been a lot of thought that has gone
18:37
Speaker 1: into what is the optimal way to build a model
18:40
Speaker 1: here and to me, every single course as a unique
18:43
Speaker 1: aspect of how you're trying to build it. So if
18:46
Speaker 1: you can find that answer and look like golf as
18:50
Speaker 1: a whole, I think they've become more sophisticated because if
18:54
Speaker 1: we look at golf, like I said, it's such a
18:56
Speaker 1: niche market at the end of the day, but like
18:59
Speaker 1: through a hundred head to head bets, from like a
19:02
Speaker 1: two year perspective of me releasing numbers, I was picking
19:05
Speaker 1: over sixty percent on like plus one hundred sort of wagers. Now,
19:09
Speaker 1: I think as markets become more sophisticated, obviously those numbers
19:12
Speaker 1: start to decrease a little bit. And we've seen that
19:14
Speaker 1: from a book perspective, where shops are getting smarter at
19:19
Speaker 1: the end of the day. But there's still enough of
19:21
Speaker 1: an edge in my eyes to where like the unique
19:24
Speaker 1: deviations of how I build a model, I'm able to
19:27
Speaker 1: find some answers that are different and specifically from a
19:31
Speaker 1: head to head perspective, like that's my bread and butter market.
19:34
Speaker 1: All right, Well, that's a good transition. So I want
19:39
Speaker 1: to let's talk about head to head. If you have
19:44
Speaker 1: some really thoughtful, smart, exciting head to head bets that
19:48
Speaker 1: we should be looking out for. Yeah, so I'll give
19:51
Speaker 1: two on here. I always recommend trying to find opponents
19:54
Speaker 1: that you want to fade in golf over ones that
19:56
Speaker 1: you want to back. I think the reason for that
19:59
Speaker 1: is it gives you multiple paths to be correct. Like,
20:02
Speaker 1: of course, we're still trying to find value in the
20:04
Speaker 1: player that we are using against our fade candidate, but
20:07
Speaker 1: I think it's worth talking about who some of the
20:09
Speaker 1: most overrated golfers were in my model in various aspects
20:12
Speaker 1: for this tournament. You know, golf is a lot different
20:15
Speaker 1: than other sports, whether you like, you can name any sport.
20:18
Speaker 1: We don't have set matchups from book to book. Every
20:22
Speaker 1: single book is going to provide different matchups. And that's
20:24
Speaker 1: another reason why I release my model for everybody is
20:27
Speaker 1: what I have available to me might not be what
20:29
Speaker 1: somebody else has available to them. So I'm just going
20:31
Speaker 1: to mention some of these players that were overrated in
20:33
Speaker 1: my model. And you know, if anybody's out there's listening,
20:36
Speaker 1: you can use this however you want with it. But
20:38
Speaker 1: this is in order from the most overrated. From a
20:40
Speaker 1: price standpoint too, I guess down to like these are
20:44
Speaker 1: the top couple here, so most overrated, Sergio Garcia, Brooks, Kepka,
20:49
Speaker 1: Meto Pereira, Hammeron Young, who I do want to get
20:52
Speaker 1: to in a second, Billy Horschel and Corey Connors. You know,
20:57
Speaker 1: I think from a Sergio Garcia perspective or gonna have
21:00
Speaker 1: to shop around to find this number, but I've seen
21:02
Speaker 1: plus prices out there for Tiger Woods to take them on.
21:05
Speaker 1: And this is a really weird answer, guys for me
21:08
Speaker 1: to give because I am not one that finds myself
21:11
Speaker 1: playing Tiger very often because of the public bias that
21:14
Speaker 1: influences the market. Although I had the price there to
21:17
Speaker 1: be one thirty, so I think Tiger has actually been
21:21
Speaker 1: negatively influenced for some reasons there. But I'm gonna talk
21:24
Speaker 1: about a wager that you can find over on fan
21:27
Speaker 1: duel with one of those players that I just talked about.
21:30
Speaker 1: And this price opened at plus one o two. We've
21:32
Speaker 1: seen it moved to minus one ten over the past
21:34
Speaker 1: twelve hours. You know, as always shop around, but we
21:38
Speaker 1: have this really, I guess I would call it super
21:41
Speaker 1: high ceiling with this terribly low mixed floor for Cameron
21:46
Speaker 1: Young against Jason Day here, So I have some concerns
21:49
Speaker 1: with my model with Cameron Young. I understand the intrigue
21:53
Speaker 1: for him because of the weighted proximity total in my
21:56
Speaker 1: model that grades him six to mimic the historical data
21:59
Speaker 1: at the track. We also get this intoxicating off the
22:04
Speaker 1: t return that place is fifth. Those two things spectacular,
22:08
Speaker 1: that's the good end of that, and that's what everybody's
22:10
Speaker 1: seeing right now with him. But I think most people
22:14
Speaker 1: in the space are ignoring his short game that has
22:17
Speaker 1: the potential to absolutely implode on these tricky green complexes.
22:21
Speaker 1: So I'll talk about some of the numbers that in
22:24
Speaker 1: my model that I've been alluding to. So out of
22:26
Speaker 1: eighty seven out of eighty something golfers in this field,
22:30
Speaker 1: he ranked fifty eighth and waded around the green seventy
22:34
Speaker 1: second and waited putting sixty fourth in three put avoidance,
22:38
Speaker 1: and seventy third in sand safe percentage. That's putting him
22:41
Speaker 1: right near the bottom of all those critical metrics of
22:44
Speaker 1: how to salvage par in these spots. Like obviously, if
22:47
Speaker 1: he strikes the driver and iron to the point where
22:49
Speaker 1: he doesn't make errors, this can work. But I think
22:53
Speaker 1: from a head to head perspective, in golf, like, like
22:55
Speaker 1: I said, you're always trying to find a fade candidate
22:58
Speaker 1: that you want to take on rather than backing that
23:01
Speaker 1: high end results. And like the one thing Cameron Young
23:03
Speaker 1: has going for him is it's a reduced size field.
23:06
Speaker 1: I think, in like a vacuum situation here, a lot
23:10
Speaker 1: of golf tournaments are one hundred forty, one hundred and
23:13
Speaker 1: fifty something people. I work off a miscut equity, and
23:17
Speaker 1: I think some of that gets marginally reduced in this
23:20
Speaker 1: spot just because we're talking about an eighty something player
23:23
Speaker 1: field where top fifty and ties make it. What that
23:26
Speaker 1: number exactly will be, you can make an argument for
23:29
Speaker 1: with it, but you know roughly sixty five percent of
23:32
Speaker 1: the field will make the weekend. I'm trying to find
23:35
Speaker 1: that volatility on the negative sense of this, and like
23:38
Speaker 1: Sergio for one, kind of just my model thinks he's
23:40
Speaker 1: going to miss the cut to begin with, and then
23:43
Speaker 1: Cameron Young, I'm hoping that you get one of these
23:45
Speaker 1: negative days from him over the course of four days,
23:47
Speaker 1: and if it comes during the first two days, he
23:50
Speaker 1: misses the weekend like he did last year. So you know,
23:53
Speaker 1: it's not my two favorite head to head wagers just
23:55
Speaker 1: because we get a reduced size field. But I do
23:58
Speaker 1: think they're too treating spots where you're getting about twenty
24:01
Speaker 1: points of value of where the market current bleeds at.
24:05
Speaker 1: Dad in another life, I always wanted to be a
24:08
Speaker 1: weather man. That's honestly who I wanted to do. And
24:10
Speaker 1: I have the weirdest guy every where. I have a
24:12
Speaker 1: job that all people care about the results. They want winners.
24:15
Speaker 1: A weather man people literally do not care about the results.
24:17
Speaker 1: They're usually always wrong. I want to know how he's
24:20
Speaker 1: gonna factor in this weather here, Like you said, your
24:22
Speaker 1: updated your model based off what's going on the weather,
24:25
Speaker 1: and you know you're tweaking your distance formula, whatever it is,
24:28
Speaker 1: just go, you know we could have crazy win or
24:31
Speaker 1: wins or whatever it is. How hard is that in golf?
24:34
Speaker 1: Because in football, honestly, me and Chad keep it simple stupid.
24:37
Speaker 1: There's bad weather, we usually go with the dog, especially
24:39
Speaker 1: if it's a home dog. We'll just take the points right.
24:42
Speaker 1: Usually that's gonna work out for you. In golf, is
24:44
Speaker 1: there anything a little easier like that? Where Okay, I
24:47
Speaker 1: got a guy that I know can drive it over
24:49
Speaker 1: three hundred yards? Is that the guy you usually should
24:51
Speaker 1: back then rather than the guy that needs you know,
24:54
Speaker 1: needs a clear day, or there's some guys that just
24:56
Speaker 1: play better in different weather. How does your model really
24:58
Speaker 1: factor into that kind of stuff. I mean, I will
25:01
Speaker 1: more so if I was trying to look at it.
25:02
Speaker 1: I think when we were talking about a wet course,
25:04
Speaker 1: distance is a way to add a little bit more
25:06
Speaker 1: to the equation there. I'm not a person that overly
25:09
Speaker 1: weighs whether and I'm going to give an answer for that,
25:12
Speaker 1: for the reason behind it. So golf is one of
25:15
Speaker 1: those unique sports, like when you see in football, for example,
25:18
Speaker 1: they're gonna be playing if there's ten inches of snow.
25:21
Speaker 1: They're going out there, they'll try to get it. They're
25:22
Speaker 1: gonna go play. In golf rounds get stopped, and you know,
25:26
Speaker 1: we can make an argument for what that reason is,
25:28
Speaker 1: or you know what's going on with some of these spots.
25:30
Speaker 1: But I always believe that weather delays are a really
25:35
Speaker 1: big situation that can occur in golf. And I never
25:38
Speaker 1: want to build a model that is so stuck on
25:41
Speaker 1: this mindset that you know, you have to have distance
25:44
Speaker 1: because it's wet, or you have to be a good
25:46
Speaker 1: win player, like when I throw wind into my model.
25:49
Speaker 1: I throw it in from a very rudimentary sense of it,
25:52
Speaker 1: where everybody kind of gets an equal weight. And that's
25:55
Speaker 1: just my basic computation of the data of how I'm
25:58
Speaker 1: going to do it. I don't really go in and
26:00
Speaker 1: try to big brain that portion of the game, like
26:03
Speaker 1: I might be trying to big brain some of this
26:04
Speaker 1: other stuff with how I'm running it. But there's so
26:07
Speaker 1: many stops and goes with golf that I actually tend
26:10
Speaker 1: to find that in general, when weather becomes an issue
26:14
Speaker 1: a lot of times, and maybe this is my version
26:16
Speaker 1: of taking a dog in the spot, I think the
26:18
Speaker 1: public overreacts in these situations, and a lot of times
26:21
Speaker 1: you can get inflated numbers on prices that you shouldn't
26:24
Speaker 1: have gotten because of that, and all this weather that
26:27
Speaker 1: you thought was going to be a problem for one
26:28
Speaker 1: half of the field all of a sudden doesn't become
26:31
Speaker 1: the case, and now you flip the script of what's
26:33
Speaker 1: happening there. So it's a very simplistic sense of how
26:36
Speaker 1: I'm building it. But I try not to get stuck
26:38
Speaker 1: in any one way or the other. But like, do
26:39
Speaker 1: you worry if you have a futures bet, like say
26:42
Speaker 1: someone like me. I mean, we can talk about later on.
26:44
Speaker 1: But Jason Day is a guy like for the Masters,
26:47
Speaker 1: if he's coming in Sunday, right, he's playing later in
26:50
Speaker 1: the day, and the guys are playing earlier day, they
26:53
Speaker 1: don't have any rain or any weather. Do you usually
26:55
Speaker 1: hedge out of those future bets where I know Jason
26:57
Speaker 1: Day's playing later in the day, he might be playing
26:59
Speaker 1: in some own wet weather. Is that again just because
27:02
Speaker 1: we're expecting a lot of rain they're predicting now for
27:04
Speaker 1: this matter's weekend. Is that something where you would get
27:07
Speaker 1: out of position just because okay, there's too much unpredictability
27:10
Speaker 1: now where the guys early in the day are getting
27:12
Speaker 1: a nice course, the ball is gonna land different, it's
27:15
Speaker 1: gonna roll different than the guy's playing later in the day,
27:17
Speaker 1: where right it might be heavy greens, a ball might
27:19
Speaker 1: stick more. You fact that it you don't factor in
27:22
Speaker 1: at all, like when you're trying to make a bet
27:23
Speaker 1: on Sunday or a hedge anything. I will. But I
27:25
Speaker 1: think the problem is is you don't have those clean
27:28
Speaker 1: exit points like you would have in other sports here
27:30
Speaker 1: because like let's say Jason Day is in contention coming
27:33
Speaker 1: into Sunday and you think that there's a weather edge
27:36
Speaker 1: and the guys early in the morning are going to
27:38
Speaker 1: be able to post a total where all the leaders
27:40
Speaker 1: are going off the course and they find themselves in
27:42
Speaker 1: this difficult situation where they're going to struggle to me
27:46
Speaker 1: more of the hedge situation in that spot isn't technically
27:48
Speaker 1: even a hedge. I mean, you could find value down
27:50
Speaker 1: the board based off of the numbers that I'm running
27:52
Speaker 1: on a different golfer, but there's never really that clean
27:55
Speaker 1: spot because most of these situations you're looking at a
27:59
Speaker 1: leaderboard where I don't know, I mean, you have fifteen
28:01
Speaker 1: to twenty players that are all within a couple shots
28:03
Speaker 1: of the lead. You're never going to get that prototypical
28:07
Speaker 1: spot where you can say, I am going to get
28:09
Speaker 1: out of this position that I'm in and I'm going
28:11
Speaker 1: to go into this spot like there's too many players.
28:14
Speaker 1: The win equity in that spot is so scattered across
28:17
Speaker 1: the board that it's hard to ever find anybody in
28:20
Speaker 1: a position where you're going to reach like that fifty
28:22
Speaker 1: percent number to where you can take the field versus them,
28:25
Speaker 1: like that's the easiest way to go about it if
28:27
Speaker 1: you're trying to go that route. But no, I think
28:29
Speaker 1: golf is different in that sense that you don't necessarily
28:32
Speaker 1: have those exit points that you're looking for, And I
28:34
Speaker 1: think once you start trying to find those exit points,
28:37
Speaker 1: you kind of run yourself into an overexposure with your
28:39
Speaker 1: card just because you start like littering the board in
28:43
Speaker 1: all these spots where you know it's fine to take
28:45
Speaker 1: some dart throws of players that you think might have
28:47
Speaker 1: a weather edge in the early morning that can make
28:49
Speaker 1: a run, but you also can't get out of a
28:51
Speaker 1: position of where you're at. So you know, I think
28:54
Speaker 1: outright betting in general and golf like obviously you can
28:57
Speaker 1: hit big winners there, but it's extremely high. I hold
29:00
Speaker 1: percentage volatile market at the end of the day, where
29:03
Speaker 1: when you make a wager, I'm kind of a person
29:05
Speaker 1: that just like this is why I had value. I'm
29:08
Speaker 1: sticking on that number. And most of the times, like
29:10
Speaker 1: when I talk to people about hedging out of bets,
29:14
Speaker 1: I tend to believe that when somebody's heading out of
29:16
Speaker 1: a golf bet, you're probably placing too much money to
29:18
Speaker 1: win the tournament to begin with on it, Like I'm
29:20
Speaker 1: more of the person that would rather just stick with
29:22
Speaker 1: my original stake in hedge on a player to win
29:25
Speaker 1: the tournament down the board in that regard. So yeah,
29:28
Speaker 1: I mean, I guess that's like a long winded answer
29:30
Speaker 1: to say, I don't know if golf has those clean spots. Yeah.
29:33
Speaker 1: So we've laid out the differences, We've laid out the field,
29:38
Speaker 1: We've laid out the weather obstacles. Who are your best bets?
29:45
Speaker 1: So I like those two head to head wagers that
29:47
Speaker 1: I talked about with Cameron or Jason Day over Cameron
29:51
Speaker 1: Young and Tiger Woods over Sergio Garcia. I think if
29:54
Speaker 1: we're talking about placement bets here, and I'll end this
29:56
Speaker 1: with outrights because everybody always wants to at least hear
29:58
Speaker 1: the outright winners of who somebody think is going to
30:00
Speaker 1: win a tournament. But there's a couple bets inside the
30:02
Speaker 1: placement market that I find very intriguing. So all these
30:07
Speaker 1: prices can be found over on FanDuel still right now,
30:10
Speaker 1: Alex Norn, for me, is a golfer that I think
30:12
Speaker 1: that the long term history at Augusta has been a
30:15
Speaker 1: little too heavily waited for him. Like when I look
30:18
Speaker 1: at this from a long term win equity standpoint. In
30:21
Speaker 1: my model, he's a top twenty five win equity player
30:24
Speaker 1: for me, And I mean you can find him to
30:26
Speaker 1: win this tournament at three hundred and forty to one.
30:29
Speaker 1: That might be a little bit extreme when we're looking
30:31
Speaker 1: at this board, but there's here that's what we want
30:35
Speaker 1: to hear. Well, it's a shot that you can take.
30:37
Speaker 1: And if I'm trying to like back test this when
30:38
Speaker 1: I did when Danny Willett won this in twenty sixteen,
30:42
Speaker 1: and it took implosions from Jordan's speech and some of
30:44
Speaker 1: those players for him to get across the finish line.
30:46
Speaker 1: But Norn's skill set was the most similar that I
30:50
Speaker 1: could see from a prototypical sense of Danny willet winning here.
30:54
Speaker 1: But I think the more tangible way to attack this
30:57
Speaker 1: market with Alex Norn, you could take him at to
31:00
Speaker 1: come top thirty at plus two forty. I certainly think
31:04
Speaker 1: the plus five hundred number to come top twenty is intriguing,
31:08
Speaker 1: and then fourteen to one to come top ten, that's
31:12
Speaker 1: a bet that I'm just gonna be sprinkling down the
31:14
Speaker 1: board there. I kind of generally tend to think that
31:18
Speaker 1: Terrell hat In at plus one ninety to come top
31:20
Speaker 1: twenty has been a little bit juiced in this spot.
31:24
Speaker 1: We heard last year how much he hated this course.
31:27
Speaker 1: I think when the general public gets that answer that
31:29
Speaker 1: a player does not like something, immediately numbers get a
31:32
Speaker 1: little juiced in those spots. So I think Hatton's intriguing.
31:36
Speaker 1: You know, Fitzpatrick, you could make an argument about, like
31:38
Speaker 1: his game is not in the right spot right now,
31:40
Speaker 1: but with the way that I'm running my data with it,
31:43
Speaker 1: like he's a top fifteen win equity player that you
31:45
Speaker 1: can get at plus one forty five to come top
31:47
Speaker 1: twenty on FanDuel. And then I guess from an outright perspective,
31:51
Speaker 1: just to talk about some bets here, it's a unique
31:55
Speaker 1: situation we have here. So this is not the prototypical
31:58
Speaker 1: answer that I'd give. I want to kind of give
32:01
Speaker 1: this caveat before. So the Masters isn't a conventional tournament.
32:06
Speaker 1: It enhances win probability the more you play it, but
32:09
Speaker 1: then it decreases the win equity when discussing an experience
32:13
Speaker 1: or reaching a certain age for these tournaments, So a
32:16
Speaker 1: couple examples here you don't have to look any further
32:18
Speaker 1: in that regard than Jack Nicholas being the only golfer
32:21
Speaker 1: to win this tournament over forty five. No first timer
32:25
Speaker 1: has won this event since Fuzzy Zeller in nineteen seventy nine.
32:28
Speaker 1: So we get this position now where we're talking about
32:31
Speaker 1: an eighty man plus field, where about seventeen golfers from
32:35
Speaker 1: the amateur perspective, and these past winners that are coming
32:39
Speaker 1: back or playing this tournament that like this is not
32:41
Speaker 1: a hyperbole over exaggeration part of the answer, they had
32:44
Speaker 1: legitimately zero percent win equity in my model, Like my
32:47
Speaker 1: model didn't even give them any possibilities. So we're already
32:50
Speaker 1: down to a seventy man field just with nothing else
32:54
Speaker 1: being said there. I think there's a couple ways to
32:57
Speaker 1: play this, and I guess that's talk about this from
33:00
Speaker 1: an implied win probability sense, and then we can move
33:03
Speaker 1: from there. Of like some of these names, So when
33:05
Speaker 1: we look at Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, John rom my
33:10
Speaker 1: model has over thirty percent of the wind implied probability
33:13
Speaker 1: on those three golfers. I don't think it necessarily has
33:16
Speaker 1: to be those three names when we're talking about placing
33:18
Speaker 1: an outright wager. But the same answer continues here when
33:21
Speaker 1: we branched this out to eight golfers, I'm about a
33:24
Speaker 1: sixty percent win equity on eight players in this field.
33:27
Speaker 1: When that's the answer, and this isn't like the answer
33:29
Speaker 1: I would typically give. I don't like going to the
33:31
Speaker 1: top of the board and creating these massively high juiced
33:35
Speaker 1: positions to where you know, like my exposure kind of
33:37
Speaker 1: builds in that way that I don't want with it.
33:39
Speaker 1: But I have to be honest with you, guys. I
33:43
Speaker 1: had McElroy's win probability at about twelve percent. Here it's
33:47
Speaker 1: a little slightly above eleven and a half percent if
33:49
Speaker 1: we want to get technical with it. But I think
33:52
Speaker 1: the one interesting thing about the Masters in Majors in
33:56
Speaker 1: general with it is books are going to be fighting
33:59
Speaker 1: for every last dollar here. So if you just start
34:01
Speaker 1: price shopping for a number, I don't think you're going
34:04
Speaker 1: to necessarily find the eight to one plus like number
34:07
Speaker 1: that I'm trying to get everybody onto. But there's boots
34:10
Speaker 1: set these books. There's ways that you're going to see
34:13
Speaker 1: numbers shift throughout the space. There's a lot of people
34:16
Speaker 1: that I've talked to you that have been able to
34:17
Speaker 1: get Rory up to ten to one, and I'm sure
34:20
Speaker 1: Fan Duel is going to run promotions throughout the week
34:22
Speaker 1: to where some of those numbers will increase with it.
34:24
Speaker 1: But this is where Simon, I think some of this
34:28
Speaker 1: weather stuff does come into my model and where I
34:32
Speaker 1: ended up getting a switch with some of my dada
34:34
Speaker 1: here which pushed macl right up even further. So not
34:36
Speaker 1: only is a Gusta playing softer than it ever has
34:39
Speaker 1: because of all the rain, but he was a top
34:41
Speaker 1: ranked player in my model when we looked at rainy conditions.
34:44
Speaker 1: He was also the top rank golfer in my model
34:46
Speaker 1: when given any iteration of the math that I wanted
34:49
Speaker 1: to run, so that was in any weather thing that
34:53
Speaker 1: you could possibly imagine. When I ran it for dry conditions,
34:55
Speaker 1: he was number one. When I ran it for wet conditions,
34:57
Speaker 1: he was number one. I just think that this is
35:00
Speaker 1: the year that Rory finally captures the career Grand Slam,
35:03
Speaker 1: and usually in my model, that's not the answer that
35:06
Speaker 1: I give, because that three put avoidance for him is
35:10
Speaker 1: a really scary proposition where he runs himself into problems
35:13
Speaker 1: with this tournament. Top ten in my model this year
35:16
Speaker 1: for three put avoidance. That's the highest he has ever
35:19
Speaker 1: graded for me. And then he is number one across
35:22
Speaker 1: the board in most of these other spots. So, as
35:24
Speaker 1: I said, like seven to one is technically proper, you
35:27
Speaker 1: might need to get cued in some of these spots
35:29
Speaker 1: to where you might need to get a boost with
35:31
Speaker 1: these situations with it. I know that's not like the
35:33
Speaker 1: prototypical answer that I would want to go to at
35:36
Speaker 1: the top of the board here. I would rather be
35:39
Speaker 1: sprinkling all a bunch of options lower beneath here. But
35:42
Speaker 1: it's a tough spot when eight players have sixty percent
35:44
Speaker 1: of a win equity. It's just how do you want
35:46
Speaker 1: to split up that pie between those eight players? And
35:49
Speaker 1: to me, Rory is really the only one that had
35:52
Speaker 1: value other than if you want to talk about Tony
35:55
Speaker 1: than now when he was twenty nine to one on
35:57
Speaker 1: fan duel, and unfortunately that number has dropped precipitously over
36:02
Speaker 1: the past, you know, twelve to twenty four hours. So
36:05
Speaker 1: I think it's a patience game at the end of
36:07
Speaker 1: the day to try to find some of these spots.
36:09
Speaker 1: Spencer is playing a different game than most professional golf betters.
36:13
Speaker 1: You know what, I'm saying, yeah, and he's this is
36:15
Speaker 1: a inside the rope's professional betting to listen to you twice, Right,
36:22
Speaker 1: You're gonna listen to it once and then go back
36:23
Speaker 1: and like, wait, what was that? He sacre A lot
36:25
Speaker 1: of a lot of bread crumbs he's dropping in here
36:27
Speaker 1: for people if they would, especially whant to build a
36:29
Speaker 1: model for golf. Yeah, a lot of really good info.
36:32
Speaker 1: This isn't this is next level stuff. Spencer, listen. I
36:36
Speaker 1: hope you do great on your toe roportion at your
36:39
Speaker 1: b mitzvah, You're gonna look very handsome frends here. If
36:41
Speaker 1: you can give us a condensed form of his favorite outrights,
36:45
Speaker 1: that'd be huge. I think the best value on the
36:48
Speaker 1: board I had proper number on Tony Fenel at twenty
36:52
Speaker 1: two to one. I believe you can shop around and
36:54
Speaker 1: find that very easily in the space. And then if
36:57
Speaker 1: you could get Rory at anything eight nine or ten
36:59
Speaker 1: to one or above, I think that that's a very
37:01
Speaker 1: intriguing price there. Thanks for coming on the Favorites podcast.
37:05
Speaker 1: You were awesome. Get Spencer on links and locks. He's
37:10
Speaker 1: doing great work. I agree with you, Simon, there's so
37:13
Speaker 1: much thoughtful insight into what he said about matchups and
37:18
Speaker 1: how to think about betting golf, not just the Masters.
37:21
Speaker 1: Totally phenomenal. G Thank you, Simon. I'm gonna remind people
37:26
Speaker 1: if you want to listen to the Favorites, we are
37:29
Speaker 1: leaving the Herd Feed. Everything else to staying the same
37:31
Speaker 1: with Volume. We love working with Volume. Still going to
37:34
Speaker 1: be on apps, still going to be on YouTube, still
37:36
Speaker 1: going to be guests on the shows, but we are
37:38
Speaker 1: leaving the herd Feed. If you want to listen to
37:39
Speaker 1: the Favorites, you got to subscribe directly to the Favorites.
37:43
Speaker 1: Rate review, subscribe, subscribe, subscribe, leave us five stars, say
37:49
Speaker 1: whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time.
37:52
Speaker 1: I love you. Action Network reminds you please gambler responsibly.
38:02
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
38:05
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred
38:08
Speaker 1: Gambler