Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 329 - 8/4/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:19Hello, and welcome to episode 329 of the All Systems Go Sports
- 0:25Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 0:28I am your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
- 0:36Happy Monday, a new week begins as we kick off the month of
- 0:40August. You know what that means guys?
- 0:42We got preseason NFL to get down on, actually want to hit on some
- 0:46early line movement for this full week of preseason action
- 0:49because we do have coming up here just a few days from now,
- 0:52coming up on Thursday, we have 3 preseason games.
- 0:56We've already seen some line movement in all three of them.
- 0:58Remember, want to know to start off the the preseason here with
- 1:02the winner in the Hall of Fame Game getting that over and
- 1:04really the importance of making information based bets in the
- 1:07preseason. Now we've gone over this before,
- 1:09but there are a lot of different, you know, kind of
- 1:12takes and opinions when it comes to betting NFL pre season.
- 1:15You're going to get a big group of people that's hey, everyone's
- 1:18got opinions. You're entitled to yours who say
- 1:20the pre season is a joke. Don't bet on it.
- 1:23It's a crapshoot. No one's trying to win the
- 1:25games. How are you possibly going to
- 1:27cash a ticket on such an an unknown and volatile market with
- 1:31an outcome in jeopardy? But then also you have people
- 1:33who love betting the pre season, like a lot of wise guys, sharp
- 1:36betters and just go right to the sports books.
- 1:38They'll come out and tell you, Hey, we hate betting the
- 1:40preseason because when we book it usually get we get hit quite
- 1:44a bit because wise guys really like look at those information
- 1:47based bets where really kind of the sweet spot.
- 1:49The Holy Grail is hey, one team is taking the game seriously.
- 1:53They're playing a majority of their guys.
- 1:54Coach is going to come out right and tell you, hey, we're going
- 1:57to play our starters for the first quarter, the first half or
- 2:00we're not going to play them at all.
- 2:02The opposing coach will kind of already kind of tell the media
- 2:05because they have nothing to lose really.
- 2:06That's the whole point. If it was the regular season,
- 2:08they would never tell you these little tidbits because they
- 2:11don't want to give up any kind of competitive advantages, even
- 2:13if it's a point O 1%. So that being said, figuring
- 2:16out, hey, staying glued to Twitter, what are the coaches
- 2:19saying? Who's playing, who's not knowing
- 2:21the depth charts. But then of course, looking at
- 2:23how the market is reacting. So looking toward these, this
- 2:27upcoming week's games might have a player too, who knows?
- 2:30But I've already seen some big movement on all three games.
- 2:33If you look on Thursday, 7:00 game, the Colts against the
- 2:36Ravens. We open this game at basically a
- 2:39pick em. You know, some shops for Colts
- 2:41may be favored by a point or even some shops for Baltimore
- 2:44favored by a point. Now it's all the way up to Colts
- 2:47-4 So boom, big movement toward Indy.
- 2:51You did hear a report that it's a full quarterback competition
- 2:55between Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson.
- 2:57So maybe they'll both play or Baltimore isn't really taking it
- 3:00very seriously since he in Philly, 730 game on Thursday
- 3:03night. Open Philly -1 -, 2 at home.
- 3:07We've now flipped all the way to since he -3 1/2 on the road.
- 3:11So was Philly not playing their guys?
- 3:12And since he is playing their guys, Vegas in Seattle 10:00
- 3:16Thursday, same sort of thing. Dog to favorite open Seattle -1
- 3:21-? 1 1/2 at home.
- 3:22Now it's -1 1/2 - 2 Vegas on the road.
- 3:25O whole point being, guys, I'm not going to play any of these
- 3:28bets now. I'm not going to get locked in
- 3:29too early, but we've already seen adjustments in the market
- 3:32telling us that based upon who's expected to play and for how
- 3:36long, you already seen big money move these numbers.
- 3:38So maybe we'll continue to dig into these games, figure out
- 3:41exactly what the coaches are going to do.
- 3:43But already some big moves. And out of these three, probably
- 3:46at least one of them, I'll be looking to get down on me.
- 3:48And again, maybe it's only a first half bet, first quarter
- 3:51bet. Because you know, a lot of times
- 3:53you get off to a nice lead at halftime and then second-half
- 3:56things get crazy and you know you get a bunch of surprises,
- 3:59but already some big moves and that's music to our ears as
- 4:02information based bets, information based betting
- 4:06priests and bedders, that's a mouthful.
- 4:09Anyway, just wanted to wet your whistle because we are going to
- 4:11have some pre season football later this week.
- 4:13With that being said, guys going to get right back to Major
- 4:15League Baseball. 3 pack overall. Got some good sharp line moves
- 4:19today. Got some sharp mush edges from
- 4:21our friends at Juice Rail. And as always a three pack.
- 4:24Let's try to go 2 and 1 eek out a winning day.
- 4:27So without further ado and again, don't give up on
- 4:29baseball. I I went on money moves earlier
- 4:31today with my buddy JBT for for V syn and we're kind of talking
- 4:35about how a you know, you turn on any kind of sports betting
- 4:38radio station or V syn or you know, any kind of betting
- 4:42network and everyone's going to want to talk about football
- 4:44because football is exciting. It's back, but don't give up on
- 4:47baseball again. This is kind of the type of year
- 4:49or time of year, I should say, where you're going to get
- 4:52motivation, motivational edges one way or the other, where one
- 4:55team is, you know, just traded their guys to the deadline,
- 4:58they're packing it in, they're bringing up kids.
- 5:00They got nothing to play for versus teams that are
- 5:02independent race and have a lot of motivation.
- 5:04So we're going to try to stay true to our model, look at some
- 5:06sharp moves, some good bet split, some good system matches
- 5:09and continue to grind baseball as we have been grinding it
- 5:12first pitch, first, first pitch, first series all the way to the
- 5:17end, of course of October when we when we crown a champion.
- 5:21So without further ado, 3 pack overall as of course, as always
- 5:26looking to get 2 winners out of three, which is the goal.
- 5:29So with that being said first, but on the board for me on the
- 5:32MLB slate, let's go to an early match up. 6:40 PM Eastern Time,
- 5:35first pitch, Minnesota Twins visiting the Detroit Tigers.
- 5:40Let's set the stage. Talk some line movement, bat
- 5:42split system matches. I'll give you my play for this
- 5:44one. So going into it, we got the
- 5:46Twins 52 and 59 on the year. Remember, they really sold off
- 5:50of the deadline I gave away. I think it was in particular 38%
- 5:53of the roster. They just did just drop two or
- 5:56three against the Guardians. Avoided the sweep, however.
- 5:59Won that series finale yesterday 5 to 4 as a + 140 Rd. dog.
- 6:04You know the Tigers 65 and 48 on the year.
- 6:06Had a great start. Little bit of a turbulence here
- 6:09recently, but did just lose 2 out of three against the
- 6:12Phillies. Lost two to nothing yesterday as
- 6:14a + 150 Rd. dog. So pitching match up here for
- 6:18tonight. This one was kind of interesting
- 6:19because but we knew all along it would be Casey Mize going for
- 6:23the Tigers, the righty 9 and four 3.43 ERA and we really
- 6:28didn't know who was going to be the Minnesota starter.
- 6:30So I went to bed last night and it was Mr. TBD to be decided.
- 6:34Woke up today, it was still Mr. Unde undecided.
- 6:36And then we finally got some confirmation that it looks like
- 6:39rookie righty Travis Adams will make the start.
- 6:42He's one and one with an 8 point O3 ERA looking to make his fifth
- 6:46career start. So, but we didn't know who the
- 6:49starter would be from Minnesota. We opened Detroit around a -,
- 6:53160 home favorite Minnesota around a + 135 Rd. dog.
- 6:57And early on we saw some movement toward even without
- 6:59knowing who the starter was. And this spoke volumes to me
- 7:02because it really didn't matter in terms of the wise guys who
- 7:05will start from Minnesota. But the early move was toward
- 7:08Detroit -160 up to around -170 And then once we got
- 7:12confirmation that Adams would get the start, we saw that line
- 7:15shoot up all the way now to around -190 So big steam here
- 7:19hitting Detroit. I jumped on Detroit a little bit
- 7:21earlier today -174 again, shop around if you want to play the
- 7:26the Tigers in this one. Looks like -188 is your best
- 7:29price currently at FanDuel. But in terms of the splits look
- 7:32pretty good on the Tigers. They're getting 88% of money
- 7:35line bets and 90% of money line dollars at DraftKings.
- 7:39So national Public book really pro and Joe, one way action in
- 7:42favor of the Tigers. And then if you look at Circa
- 7:45out in Vegas, 95% of money line bets in dollars roughly coming
- 7:49in on the Tigers, another big heavy split in favor of Detroit.
- 7:53You look at some system matches here.
- 7:55I have 4 systems lit up. One that really caught my eye
- 7:57Monday. Home favorites with a line move
- 7:59in their favor, 56 and 36 on the year, 61 percent, 4% ROI.
- 8:05Home favorites in the opening game of a new series getting
- 8:08big. Steam $0.20 or more in their
- 8:10direction. 54 and 26 on the year, 71% with a 9% ROI.
- 8:16If we isolate the Tigers in particular in the spot, they've
- 8:19done very well as a home favorite -150 or more.
- 8:23They're 18 and seven on the year, 72 percent, 6% ROI.
- 8:27And when they are a home favorite against a below 500
- 8:30team, they're 17 and 577% with an 18% ROI.
- 8:36Detroit we're going to bank on. Of course, Mize hopefully
- 8:38pitching well and the bats of the Tigers getting to Adams the
- 8:41rookie. But overall, Detroit does have
- 8:43the better bats, hitting 249 as a team, 144 home runs, 543 runs
- 8:49scored. Meanwhile, Minnesota, who dealt
- 8:51away a couple guys in their lineup, only hitting 241 on the
- 8:55year, 126 homers, 462 runs scored.
- 8:59In particular, home Rd. splits, batting average really benefit
- 9:02the Tigers in the spot. They're hitting 257 at home.
- 9:05That's 10th, 10th best in baseball.
- 9:08Twins are only hitting 232 on the road.
- 9:09That ranks 25th. KC Mize in particular, remember,
- 9:13he was a first round pick, was maybe even his first overall a
- 9:16few years ago, maybe top five, something like that.
- 9:18But he's been pretty good at home.
- 9:20Five and one 3.32 ERA. And then just classic home Rd.
- 9:24splits. We have Detroit 36 and 21 at
- 9:26home, Minnesota 22 and 35 on the road.
- 9:30So you're kind of waiting on who the starter would be from
- 9:32Minnesota. We finally got confirmation, but
- 9:34from open to current and especially after Adams was named
- 9:38the official starter, it's all been movement toward Detroit
- 9:41here, guys. So I'm going to lay it with the
- 9:43Tigers. I got -174 a little bit earlier
- 9:46today. Again, this is a shameless plug
- 9:48to sign up to get the $4.99 a week.
- 9:52All systems go. Best bets from the Juice Reel
- 9:53app because you would have gotten that 174 earlier and
- 9:57gotten some CLV. But either way, if you're
- 9:59playing them now, you'll come at around -188 but looks to be a
- 10:02good spot for the Tigers here at home.
- 10:04So I'm laying it with the Tigers again.
- 10:06I got -174 keep on cruising. 6:40 PM Eastern Time.
- 10:11First pitch, another early one here.
- 10:13Let's look at an interleague matchup.
- 10:15Houston Astros visiting the Miami Marlins now.
- 10:18The Astros come in 62 and 50 on the year, 12 games above 500.
- 10:22But they did just get swept by my Red Sox.
- 10:24So thank you for a good weekend as the Red Sox over 85 and F win
- 10:29total. Those like me who are holding it
- 10:31in pocket. It was been a good, good stretch
- 10:33here. Let's keep it going.
- 10:34But they lost that serious finale 6 to 1 yesterday as a
- 10:37-130 Rd. favorite. Meanwhile, the Marlins kind of
- 10:41unbelievable, if you haven't been paying attention, they're
- 10:43now at 555 and 55 number. They started I think 16 and 30
- 10:48or something, but a terrible start.
- 10:51They've been one of the best teams in baseball over the last
- 10:53about 30 to 60 days. They swept the Yankees and won
- 10:56seven to three yesterday as a -105 home dog.
- 11:00So for the pitching matchup tonight in this interleague
- 11:02series opener, the Stroh's are going to go with the ready.
- 11:05Jason Alexander, Mr. Costanza, for the Seinfeld fans out there,
- 11:09one and one 7.36 ERA. By the way, me and the wife over
- 11:12the weekend we watched Shallow Hal, a big Jack Black fan.
- 11:15I watched it back in the day. I haven't seen in a long time,
- 11:18but it was pretty hilarious and Jason Alexander was in that.
- 11:21Anyway, the Marlins going to go with fellow ready Sandy
- 11:24Alcantara. 6 and 96.36 ERA. So do you see across the market
- 11:29here? Well, this game opened at
- 11:30basically a pick em around -110 both sides.
- 11:34You had some shops even open. Houston kind of a short -115 Rd.
- 11:38favorite and the public really doesn't know where to go.
- 11:40They're split down the middle 5050 at DraftKings.
- 11:43On the one hand, you know Houston has the better record
- 11:46and they're getting plus money. So how do you not take that?
- 11:48But then also Miami's red hot laying, you know, kind of a
- 11:52quasi short number at home. How do you not take that?
- 11:54So public doesn't know what to do.
- 11:56But what do we always talk about?
- 11:575050 line moves. That's when the basically the
- 12:00line is moving in One Direction, even though the tickets are
- 12:03even. So you would think theoretically
- 12:05in a vacuum, if the odds makers have balanced action, there's no
- 12:08need to adjust the price up or down.
- 12:10Usually that's kind of what you see if the tickets are split.
- 12:13But if the tickets are split and then one team is getting steam
- 12:15$0.20 or more in their favor, I like to go with that team
- 12:18getting steam because it tells me even though the public
- 12:20doesn't know what to do, wise guys have clearly taken a
- 12:23position and that position is on the team getting that big steam
- 12:26move in their favor. In this case, it would be Miami.
- 12:29Now the Marlins are matching 5 systems for me.
- 12:31Couple of the most notable ones. Same overlap of the Detroit
- 12:35play, but home teams with a line move in their favor on Mondays.
- 12:3856 and 3661 percent, 4% ROI this year.
- 12:43Home favorites in the opening game of a new series getting big
- 12:45Steam $0.20 or more in their direction. 54 and 2671 percent,
- 12:519% ROI. Here's a new one if you're a
- 12:53sweet spot. Home favorite between -125 and
- 12:56-140, which the Marlins are, and you're playing in a point an
- 13:00opponent who made the playoffs the previous year.
- 13:03So kind of a contrarian by low spot on a short number against
- 13:06quote UN quote a good team. Those teams are 59 and 3563%
- 13:11with a 10% ROI this year. Now the Marlins would have
- 13:15betting system value as a interleague favorite.
- 13:17So lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the
- 13:20better team. Miami is also three and O in
- 13:23Alcantara's last three starts. I know his ERA in the year is
- 13:25pretty bad. Remember, this guy was a Cy
- 13:28Young winner a few years ago. 6.36 ERA overall, but he's got a
- 13:3212 inning scoreless streak. He has not given up a run in his
- 13:35last two starts and we do have Miami 3 and O in his last three
- 13:39starts overall. Then if we kind of look at just
- 13:42recent performance, Marlins are playing very well there. 11 and
- 13:45four since the break there, eight and two over their last
- 13:4810. They have a 2.96 team ERA.
- 13:51Meanwhile, the Stroh's complete opposite two and eight over
- 13:53their last ten 4.91 team ERA. Miami also most profitable team
- 13:59in baseball since June 1st. They're 32 and 2269 percent 34%
- 14:04ROI, 18 units. One, and I'll just throw this
- 14:07little caveat as well, but I think it was after they either
- 14:10won the first or second game of the series against the Yankees
- 14:13and I forget who the player was, they said something like, hey,
- 14:17we're young, we're hungry, we don't care what people say.
- 14:19We're playing great ball. And just kind of the the vibe of
- 14:23of this Miami team. They got, they got something
- 14:26special going, something mojo wise that I want to get behind.
- 14:29So it's not a play on Miami just because they're hot.
- 14:32It's a play on Miami because they went from a pick to a -,
- 14:35130 home favorite tells us smart money's in their favor.
- 14:38So good splits, good movement, some good system matches here.
- 14:41And oh, by the way, nothing crazy, but a 5% sharp mush edge
- 14:46on the Miami Marlins from our friends at Juice Rail.
- 14:49So a lot of books as high as -135 I got Miami -130 they
- 14:54should still be available at -130 I believe ESPN or BET MGM
- 14:58still has that price. But let's stay hot.
- 15:01Let's go fish last bed of the night, 7:15 PM Eastern Time, the
- 15:06Milwaukee Brew Crew, another hot team visiting the Atlanta
- 15:09Braves. So going to it, we got the
- 15:11Brewers 67 and 44 believe the best record in baseball just
- 15:16swept the nationals. They had a big win 14 to 3
- 15:19yesterday as a -150 Rd. favorite.
- 15:22Meanwhile, the Braves, 47 and 63 on the year did just take two or
- 15:26three against the Reds. They won four to two yesterday
- 15:28at Bristol Motor Speedway where it was a NASCAR race and they
- 15:32turned into a baseball field. But they did just get a big
- 15:35injury to with Austin Riley going down South pitching match
- 15:38up here for tonight. The Brew Crew are going with the
- 15:41ready Quinn Priester. Every time I look at his
- 15:43numbers, I want to throw up as a Red Sox fan.
- 15:45He's 10 and two, 3.27 ERA. Remember the Red Sox traded him
- 15:49before the start of the year. I think it was maybe spring
- 15:51training to Milwaukee without having him ever pitch a game for
- 15:55Boston. So a good job Red Sox giving up
- 15:58this guy who's been great this year.
- 16:00Braves, meanwhile, going with the fellow ready Eric Fetti.
- 16:03He's three and eleven 5.33 ERA. So what are we seen across the
- 16:08market for this one? Well, the Brew Crew opened
- 16:10around a -. 130 Rd. favorite Atlanta A + 110 home dog and
- 16:15sharps are pounding the Milwaukee Brew Crew here.
- 16:17Let's make some beer tonight, guys.
- 16:19Brewers have gotten steamed up -130 now up to -145.
- 16:24I jumped on Milwaukee -138 a little bit earlier today.
- 16:28Looks like -144 is now your best price at FanDuel.
- 16:31But aside from that, line move splits look pretty good on the
- 16:34Brewers at DraftKings. 78% of money line bets, 91% of money
- 16:39line dollars. So kind of a pro and Joe Low
- 16:41bets higher dollar split at the National DK book in favor of
- 16:45Milwaukee. I do have some system matches on
- 16:47the Brewers. Big one here for me is it might
- 16:49a little bit of a mouthful here, but try to try to stay with me.
- 16:52Favorites off a win with a winning record, getting at least
- 16:56$0.05 of line movement in their favor against a team who made
- 16:59the playoffs the previous year. 132 and 6069 percent. 7% ROI
- 17:05this season. Milwaukee is also cleaned up
- 17:07against bad teams. When they play a team that's
- 17:10below 500, they've gone 38 and 2164% with a 14% ROI.
- 17:16Brewers would also have that favorite low total correlative
- 17:20betting value. Total in this one is 8.
- 17:22Some shops are juiced up. I seen 8 1/2 out there but it's
- 17:25mostly eights. You'd also have a non division
- 17:27favorite system match with Milwaukee, lack of familiarity
- 17:30also benefiting quote UN quote. The better team was expected to
- 17:33win and hope Milwaukee's bats stay hot on the year.
- 17:36They're hitting 257, they've scored 555 runs.
- 17:40Atlanta only hitting 243. They've only scored 461 runs.
- 17:45And again, Cooney is on the DL. And you just have Austin Riley
- 17:48who got hurt as well. And then dig into these pictures
- 17:51a little bit. Quinn Priester again hurts even
- 17:54more as a Sox fan, but the Brewers are 11 and O 11 and O.
- 17:58And his last eleven starts he's given up two earned runs, excuse
- 18:01me or less, in 10 of his last 12 starts.
- 18:05You know, Eric Fetty, the Braves have been so decimated by
- 18:08injuries to their pitching staff there to make a trade, I
- 18:10believe, with the Cardinals to bring in Fetty.
- 18:13But he in four July starts posted a 10.5 for ER a making a
- 18:18second start tonight with the Braves after being picked up in
- 18:21a trade in his debut. He gave up four runs in 4.2 and
- 18:25he's pitched in a nine to six loss to the Royals.
- 18:28A little cherry on top here, Milwaukee also getting an 8%
- 18:33sharp mush edge in favor, in their favor, I should say from
- 18:37the wise guys like you who are listening, who have downloaded
- 18:40juice trail and synced up their books.
- 18:42So steam move toward Milwaukee. They're red hot priesters been
- 18:45dealing that. He's a guy we want to fade.
- 18:48We got a sharp mush edge. I laid it with Milwaukee -138
- 18:51little bit earlier today. Again, looks like your best
- 18:54price right now is around -144 at FanDuel.
- 18:57So Tigers, Marlins, beer makers, let's try to get 2 out of 3 eek
- 19:02out a winning day. So that about does it for
- 19:05episode 329 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
- 19:09powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
- 19:11where we wrap things up and I start first by saying, as
- 19:14always, thank you. Thank you for taking the time
- 19:16out of your day, out of your busy lives during the dog days
- 19:19of summer to pull up a chair to the virtual bar and sweat some
- 19:22sharp, data-driven breakdowns in me.
- 19:23It means a ton. I know it's easy to tune in
- 19:26during football season because everyone's doing football, but
- 19:28we've been grinding baseball since the start and having a
- 19:30decent year. So I thank you all for tuning
- 19:33and listening in. If you do enjoy the pod, if you
- 19:36want to let me know you appreciate the pod.
- 19:37Help me grow this podcast please.
- 19:39Could you give it a five star review on Spotify or iTunes?
- 19:43Would go a long way to continue to to build some momentum for
- 19:47the ASG pod. If you'd like to leave a nice
- 19:49comment under the review section or click the follow button.
- 19:52That way you get alerted as soon as it drops each day or
- 19:55recommend the pod to a friend. Word of mouth, that would also
- 19:58be very much appreciated. Next, if you enjoy the style of
- 20:02betting breakdown, no parlays, no betting.
- 20:05What we think or want will happen.
- 20:06We're not hammering this with a 50 unit bomb.
- 20:09No, we're grinding our system matches long term discipline
- 20:12approach. But if kind of reading the
- 20:15market has kind of clued you into a strategy and overall
- 20:19North star when it comes to sports betting, now you're
- 20:21paying attention to line movement, what a game opened at,
- 20:24where it is now, the splits, the system matches.
- 20:27If this style of betting has again, kind of caught your eye
- 20:30and you've seen the value in it and you want to learn more about
- 20:33data-driven betting, then I would love for you to go to
- 20:36Amazon.com and type in the Everything Guide to Sports
- 20:39Betting. It's the first book ever wrote,
- 20:41very proud of it. But it's got everything I've
- 20:43learned in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
- 20:46they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
- 20:48action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
- 20:52for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan,
- 20:55chapters on all the major sports, all included in the
- 20:57Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
- 20:59Now while you're picking up the Everything Guide on Amazon, stay
- 21:02on Amazon.com and then type in the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook.
- 21:06It's my new book. It comes out a week from
- 21:08tomorrow. Can't believe it.
- 21:10August 12th we got football, you know, pretty much here back in
- 21:15our lives after the Hall of Fame game and preseason about to be
- 21:18in full swing this week. Before you know it, it'll be
- 21:20week 1. If you want to get a leg up on
- 21:22your NFL handicapping, get ready for the season.
- 21:24I would love for you guys to pick up a pre-ordered copy of
- 21:28the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook. You can bring the Sharp Betting
- 21:32Playbook and the Everything Guide to the sports book.
- 21:34I'll sign them for you. I'll buy you a beer or ginger
- 21:37ale, we'll get some some nachos, and we'll sweat some baseball
- 21:40games together. That sounds pretty good to me.
- 21:43Next, have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Reel?
- 21:45Hope you haven't. Now is the time because it's
- 21:47about to get busy around these parts with football returning.
- 21:50We haven't even hit on college football yet, even though there
- 21:53are some lines out already and pretty much all the lines are
- 21:56out for week 1 or week 0 as they like to call it now.
- 21:59But if you haven't done it yet, now is the time to download
- 22:01Rhythm. Rhythm does a great job of
- 22:03powering this podcast. Rhythm is fantastic for their AI
- 22:06backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
- 22:10Right now we got WNBA and MLB live, but pretty soon we'll have
- 22:13football returning and then basketball, so looking forward
- 22:16to that. Then you also got to go download
- 22:18Juice Reel. This podcast is free.
- 22:21It cost you nothing to listen. If you want to support the pod,
- 22:24let me know you appreciate the pod.
- 22:25I would love for you to go to Juice Reel, download the app,
- 22:29click buy sell bottom right corner and then go to sellers
- 22:33and then click or type in ASG under score podcast or you don't
- 22:37have to click anything. You can just follow my Twitter
- 22:39account at Josh under score insights.
- 22:41I tweeted out every late afternoon, early evening.
- 22:44We can get the all systems go best bet pics exclusively on the
- 22:48juice real app for $4.99 a week. Again, I make the joke of hey,
- 22:53hopefully this pot is worth $0.99 of insights and value.
- 22:56Well, if that's the case, get those best bets and you'll get
- 22:59some better numbers, hopefully like Detroit -174 a little bit
- 23:02earlier today. But also you're going to get the
- 23:04Robo Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush indicators, the
- 23:07arbitrage plays, the shop for the best line features.
- 23:11All those are available to you, those great features when you
- 23:13download Juice Reel. So download Juice Reel and
- 23:16download Rhythm. Give a five star review in the
- 23:18App Store while you're at it. Lastly, do you have a live odds
- 23:22page? Do you even know what a live
- 23:24odds page is? You probably do, but you might
- 23:26not. That's OK.
- 23:27But a live odds page is, I would argue the number one most
- 23:30important tool needed to be a data-driven better because
- 23:34specifically just to start, you need data, you need numbers, you
- 23:37need information and they come on the live odds page.
- 23:40So it's going to give you all the games, the start times, the
- 23:43live scoring, the live in game wagering odds, but most
- 23:46importantly, it's going to be all the lines.
- 23:48That's why they call it a live odds page.
- 23:50All the numbers across the market at different books on
- 23:52every game, so you can see which direction the line is moving,
- 23:55how much or how little it is moved.
- 23:57Where does buy back come in? If you pull up the line history,
- 24:00find the best price by getting the best number, and then you
- 24:03can also identify steam. Anytime a number gets lit up in
- 24:07red, that means it's changing. That means big money's coming in
- 24:10and you can identify that steam and hopefully take advantage of
- 24:13a book that is slow to adjust. So you hear me say it all the
- 24:16time, but I do it because I think it's important and it
- 24:18helps me and I know it's going to help you.
- 24:20There's a lot of live pages, lot of live odds pages out there.
- 24:23The best one is Odds Logic. So if you go to
- 24:26oddslogic.com/josh 123, again, oddslogic.com/josh 123, that's
- 24:33going to give you a 7 day free trial and then 50% off your
- 24:36first month of service with Oddslogic.
- 24:38So give it a shot oddslogic.com/josh 123.
- 24:44So that about does it for episode 329 of the ASG Pod.
- 24:47Getting back into the swing of things on a Monday.
- 24:50As always, guys leave you with two final thoughts.
- 24:52One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
- 24:55River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
- 24:57Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut at the Encore in
- 25:00Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino, MGM Springfield, or the
- 25:04Nash in my neck of the woods outskirts of Boston Little,
- 25:07about 15 minutes away from Nashville, New Hampshire.
- 25:10Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
- 25:12down. Or Billy Walter sends his number
- 25:14runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the South
- 25:16Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
- 25:18plays, jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
- 25:21When you catch a big ticket at Circa, hopefully you're going to
- 25:23walk up to me and show me some MLB winners here for tonight.
- 25:27Tigers, Marlins, bro crew, try to get 2 out of three and start
- 25:32our week off on a on a good note.
- 25:34As always, guys, whether we're up down, hot, cold, coming off a
- 25:38three and O or O and three, A 2:00 and 1:00 or 1:00 and 2:00.
- 25:41There's a lot of ups and downs in sports betting.
- 25:43Sports betting is also very difficult.
- 25:45Again, it's hard to beat these razor sharp lines.
- 25:48It's hard to avoid bad beats. We just got to keep grinding
- 25:50though. Anything can happen in a one
- 25:52off. But if we can consistently long
- 25:54term avoid the games that present red flags and get down
- 25:57on the games. Grinders with blinders, fearless
- 26:00but disciplined on the games that fit our model.
- 26:03And you know what that model is by now.
- 26:05Or maybe you don't. That's OK too.
- 26:07Against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
- 26:10avoid parlays, get that CLV. We can do that and I'm confident
- 26:13that we can. And guess what, long term we're
- 26:16going to be successful sports betters.
- 26:18So have a great Monday everybody.
- 26:19Hope you had a great weekend. Let's get some baseball winners
- 26:22tonight and keep grinding MLB until until Thursday.
- 26:25We might have a preseason, preseason NFL game or two to get
- 26:30down on. So I'm looking forward to that.
- 26:32But either way, guys will be right back at it tomorrow.
- 26:34Big Tuesday edition. That'll be episode 330 of the
- 26:37All Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
- 26:41Good luck everybody and have a great Monday night.