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Carney reaching new high in the polls as trade war drags · DEEP INSIGHT

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  Speaker 1: Mark Carney's personal approval ratings have reached the highest level
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  Speaker 1: yet during his tenure as prime minister, according to Abacus data.
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  Speaker 1: 56% of Canadians have a positive impression of the prime minister,
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  Speaker 1: and the government's overall approval is now at 60%, which
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  Speaker 1: is up slightly over the past week. Now, this latest
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  Speaker 1: national polling snapshot from Abacus has the Liberals leading the
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  Speaker 1: Conservatives by 12 points, with the Liberals at 46%, the
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  Speaker 1: Conservatives at 34%, the NDP at 9%, the Bloc at 7%,
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  Speaker 1: and the Green Party at just 2%. Well, here to
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  Speaker 1: dig into these numbers and other numbers, we have the
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  Speaker 1: CEO of Abacus Data, David Coletto, and we have Eric Grenier,
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  Speaker 1: who is the founder of the RIT.ca. It is very
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  Speaker 1: good to see you both. David, let's start with your numbers.
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  Speaker 1: The liberals, they're seeing their support strengthened. Mark Carney's approval
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  Speaker 1: at the highest level, despite some of the damage from
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  Speaker 1: the trade war.
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  Speaker 2: What goes into this, do you think?
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  Speaker 3: Well, I think the most important thing to understand is
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  Speaker 3: that when we look at what's driving the public's approval
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  Speaker 3: for Mark Carney, it almost all is being driven by
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  Speaker 3: their perception of how he's handling the Canada-U.S.
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  Speaker 2: Relationship. And with that being the.
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  Speaker 3: Most salient issue, despite the uncertainty that it's creating, you know,
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  Speaker 3: despite the anxiety that it's creating among the large group
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  Speaker 3: of the public, it's actually continuing to lift his numbers.
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  Speaker 3: Because overwhelmingly— When you look at how the public views
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  Speaker 3: his handling of that issue or when you ask them
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  Speaker 3: which party do you think is best able to handle
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  Speaker 3: the president in this trade conflict, the Liberals and Mr.
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  Speaker 2: Carney win overwhelmingly.
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  Speaker 3: And so it is really setting the context for what
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  Speaker 3: I now think is likely one of the most popular—
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  Speaker 3: prime ministers and popular is a word we should be
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  Speaker 3: careful that we use because I think there's a lot
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  Speaker 3: of goodwill towards them. I think people trust him, but
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  Speaker 3: it's all in the context of this external threat that
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  Speaker 3: now most Canadians believe is, is now overwhelmingly having an
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  Speaker 3: impact on their lives.
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  Speaker 1: I want to get there quickly, but first, David, I mean,
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  Speaker 1: is it, is it the liberal party that is seen
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  Speaker 1: as the best to deal with it? Or is it
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  Speaker 1: like Mark Kearney, private sector, central banker that is doing
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  Speaker 1: the heavy lifting.
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  Speaker 2: In these numbers? I think it's the Prime Minister.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, his own personal numbers are such an important
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  Speaker 3: driver in all this. And, you know, in the past,
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  Speaker 3: we've asked Canadians to describe him. You know, they overwhelmingly
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  Speaker 3: use words like competent, like experienced.
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  Speaker 2: And, you know, David, in our own numbers, just.
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  Speaker 3: To consider that Mark Carney is far more popular than
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  Speaker 3: Pierre Polyev is in Alberta is just an indication of
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  Speaker 3: the times we're in and how widespread and deep Prime
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  Speaker 3: Minister Carney's popularity actually is right now.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, we're going to talk about the Conservatives in a
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  Speaker 1: second in this particular episode of Black Mirror they find
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  Speaker 1: themselves in. But Eric, I want to bring you in here.
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  Speaker 1: David has a 12-point Liberal lead over the Conservatives in
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  Speaker 1: his numbers. I've seen other polls where it's bigger than that.
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  Speaker 1: This is no criticism. It's just, you know, the way
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  Speaker 1: things fluctuate. Walk us through the trend line we're seeing nationally.
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  Speaker 1: It's a similar Liberal 1, Conservative 2, but the gap
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  Speaker 1: is where there's fluctuation.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, the gap has been widening. We've seen some polls
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  Speaker 4: have had a gap as wide as 17 points recently.
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  Speaker 4: So certainly that margin between the Liberals and the Conservatives
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  Speaker 4: has been getting bigger over the last few weeks. And
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  Speaker 4: it is both because support for the Liberals has risen.
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  Speaker 4: If we were talking just a few weeks ago, they
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  Speaker 4: would have been closer to maybe 42 and then 44.
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  Speaker 4: And now we're seeing polls like with David at 46%.
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  Speaker 4: And the Conservatives have been dropping. We have them, in
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  Speaker 4: my averages, at around 33%. And there's been a poll
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  Speaker 4: out that was also out this week that hadn't down
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  Speaker 4: to 29%. So we have seen that those numbers for
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  Speaker 4: the Conservatives have dropped to levels that are actually even
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  Speaker 4: below where Aaron O'Toole or Andrew Scheer were in the
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  Speaker 4: last few elections. So it is a question of both,
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  Speaker 4: and certainly they're related. But the good news for Mark Carney,
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  Speaker 4: it's bad news for Pierre Pelletier.
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  Speaker 1: Well, look, you know, 42, 44, 46, you take any
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  Speaker 1: of those numbers if you're a political leader in Canada,
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  Speaker 1: because they all mean majority of some shape and form. But, Eric,
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  Speaker 1: your thoughts on the conservative trend line, right? It's by-election losses, defections.
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  Speaker 1: We've got another big by-election coming up in Brantford.
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  Speaker 2: That's going to.
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  Speaker 1: Be a key one for them. Is it just affection
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  Speaker 1: and trust from Mark Kearney that's driving this gap, or
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  Speaker 1: is it something else on the other side that's.
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  Speaker 2: A problem here?
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  Speaker 4: I do think it is largely driven by Mark Carney
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  Speaker 4: because Pierre Poliev's numbers, while they're not good by any means,
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  Speaker 4: they haven't fallen off a cliff. We've seen more of
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  Speaker 4: a drop for support for the Conservatives than I think
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  Speaker 4: we've seen for Pierre Poliev. But it has been a
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  Speaker 4: big problem for the Conservatives. Right now, the Liberals, with
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  Speaker 4: the kind of numbers we're seeing, would probably win 220,
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  Speaker 4: 230 seats based on where they are. And the Conservatives
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  Speaker 4: could be dropped down to 80, far below even where
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  Speaker 4: they were when Stephen Harper lost in the 2015 election.
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  Speaker 4: And it's not just in Ontario where the Liberals are
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  Speaker 4: now sometimes polling over 50%. We've seen a big drop
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  Speaker 4: in support in Quebec. We've seen a big drop in
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  Speaker 4: support in British Columbia. And you mentioned that Brantford-South by-election.
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  Speaker 4: If you're looking at the numbers in Ontario, it is
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  Speaker 4: going to be a really tough seat to hold for
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  Speaker 4: the Conservatives. So will that have any implications over the
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  Speaker 4: longer term for the Conservative leader?
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  Speaker 2: We will see.
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  Speaker 4: But there's no good news in any poll for Pierre
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  Speaker 4: Pelletier for the Conservatives.
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  Speaker 1: David Coletto, how do you see it in terms of
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  Speaker 1: what's driving the growth of this gap? I mean, obviously,
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  Speaker 1: there is a support for the capacity and the skill
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  Speaker 1: set the prime minister brings there. But, you know, is
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  Speaker 1: Pierre Pelletier able to put a floor into this, do
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  Speaker 1: you think? Or what's your read of this trend?
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  Speaker 2: I mean, I think, you know, it's hard.
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  Speaker 3: I think Eric's analysis is spot on, that it's mostly
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  Speaker 3: Mark Carney, if you're the Conservatives, in terms of trying
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  Speaker 3: to assess why are we struggling to get traction, why
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  Speaker 3: do we see our numbers continue to go down? But
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  Speaker 3: it is partly the comparison that people make between Prime
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  Speaker 3: Minister Carney and Mr. Polyev that is also part of it,
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  Speaker 3: that you have a 40-point gap in net favorables between
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  Speaker 3: these two leaders. I'm not sure that has existed in
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  Speaker 3: a really long time. And so that's the context by
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  Speaker 3: which you know, the Conservatives are up against. They're up
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  Speaker 3: against an incredibly popular Prime Minister. They're up against this
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  Speaker 3: external threat in the President of the United States, you know.
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  Speaker 2: And in all of that, you know, in our survey.
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  Speaker 3: We asked people to assess the performance of the government,
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  Speaker 3: not just overall, but on a number of different items.
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  Speaker 3: And there's not a single one, including the cost of living,
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  Speaker 3: including housing, including crime, that more people say they disapprove
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  Speaker 3: of this government than approve.
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  Speaker 2: And so as much as this, you know, approval.
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  Speaker 3: Of the Carney government is being driven by the Canada-U.S. relationship,
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  Speaker 3: the halo effect is affecting other things as well. And that,
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  Speaker 3: I think, is just, you know, it's just the times.
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  Speaker 3: And I've argued, I'm not convinced that, you know, if
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  Speaker 3: you replace Mr. Polyev, this solves itself.
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  Speaker 2: I think you have to actually... If you're.
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  Speaker 3: The Conservatives, solve for the fact that Mark Carney remains
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  Speaker 3: probably one of the most popular prime ministers we've had
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  Speaker 3: since polling really started.
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  Speaker 2: And I think that that is the uniqueness of this moment.
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  Speaker 1: Well, he's got a positive approval rating in every region
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  Speaker 1: of the country. He's plus 20 in Alberta and plus
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  Speaker 1: 20 in Saskatchewan. You told them he was a liberal
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  Speaker 1: in your polling, right, David, when you asked Albertans and
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  Speaker 1: people in Saskatchewan? Because, like, you don't see those. You
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  Speaker 1: just don't see that ever.
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  Speaker 2: You don't.
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  Speaker 3: And it crosses demographic group. Even, you know, even among conservatives,
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  Speaker 3: those who say they would vote conservative today, it's negative,
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  Speaker 3: but it's only minus 24. Pierre Poliev's net favorable is
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  Speaker 3: minus 70 among liberals and New Democrats. So he's not,
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  Speaker 3: you know, the prime minister is not even that polarizing
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  Speaker 3: with those who absolutely say they won't vote liberal no
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  Speaker 3: matter what happens.
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  Speaker 1: OK, there is I don't know if it's polarization, Eric,
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  Speaker 1: but what's happening in Quebec is some wild stuff. I
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  Speaker 1: want to get your thoughts on this. We got three
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  Speaker 1: new polls about what's happening with a week to go
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  Speaker 1: in the Quebec election. Leger's synopsis and palace data all
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  Speaker 1: showing a 30 percent, not a lead for the PQ,
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  Speaker 1: but they're at 30 percent. The CAQ has just dropped
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  Speaker 1: down below 20%, which there are some projections. Your buddy
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  Speaker 1: Philippe Fournier says maybe zero seats for the majority CAQ.
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  Speaker 1: What do you make of what we're seeing in Quebec
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  Speaker 1: with this crazy five-party split here?
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, and it is really a question of the division
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  Speaker 4: of the vote between those five parties because 30% for
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  Speaker 4: the Parti Québécois, which they've just recently reached, they were
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  Speaker 4: stuck at 28%, 29% for most of the campaign. that
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  Speaker 4: could end up being enough to win a majority government.
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  Speaker 4: But it's primarily because of what's happening with the other parties.
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  Speaker 4: The CEQ is the chief rival to the PQ among
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  Speaker 4: francophone voters. And among francophones, the CEQ is still in
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  Speaker 4: second place in most polls, but is down to maybe
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  Speaker 4: 20 or 18 percent. So they're behind the PQ by
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  Speaker 4: 15 to 20 points now. And that is why the
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  Speaker 4: PQ could win a majority government. The CEQ was moving
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  Speaker 4: into contention with the PQ, especially when Christine Frechette was
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  Speaker 4: talking about Donald Trump and the need for security. And
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  Speaker 4: it looked like this campaign could end up being really
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  Speaker 4: close and really tough for the PQ. But Frechette has
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  Speaker 4: not had a good campaign. The last couple of debates,
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  Speaker 4: she didn't fall in her face, but she didn't really
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  Speaker 4: help her position. And the CEQ now is in a
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  Speaker 4: position where they could get wiped out. Because the CEQ,
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  Speaker 4: unlike the PQ or the Liberals or the Conservatives or
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  Speaker 4: Quebec Solidaires, they don't really have a regional base of support.
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  Speaker 4: So if they're at 16% to 18%, but they're at
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  Speaker 4: 16% to 18% everywhere across the province, that's not going
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  Speaker 4: to give them a lot of seats.
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  Speaker 2: So the CEQ.
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  Speaker 4: The election looks like it's going to end their government.
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  Speaker 4: There's a chance it could end the party as well.
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  Speaker 1: So, Eric, just looking at those numbers, and I want
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  Speaker 1: to get a quick thought from David before we say goodbye.
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  Speaker 1: We could see the CAQ go from, I think, 79
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  Speaker 1: seats at dissolution, which is a pretty good plus 15 majority,
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  Speaker 1: to zero, one, two seats max. And the PQ go from,
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  Speaker 1: I think, third or fourth place in the National Assembly,
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  Speaker 1: not having official party status, to a majority government. with
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  Speaker 1: 30% in the polls. Am I understanding that right? Like
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  Speaker 1: liberal opposition, this seems the most likely outcome here?
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, right now the PQ had three seats in the
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  Speaker 4: last election. Now they could win 68. I have in
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  Speaker 4: my projections just based on where things are today. And
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  Speaker 4: the Liberals, because of their strong support in the West Island,
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  Speaker 4: Montreal and other parts of the Greater Montreal area, is
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  Speaker 4: kind of locked in at somewhere around 35 seats. But
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  Speaker 4: they're so far behind among Francophones, often fourth in the polls,
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  Speaker 4: that they just can't really get close to the PQ
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  Speaker 4: when it comes to the seat count, even though in
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  Speaker 4: some polls They're not that far behind in the provincial
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  Speaker 4: vote intention. But it could be a pretty wild result.
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  Speaker 4: And if the PQ does get a majority with 30%
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  Speaker 4: or less, there will be some questions about whether the
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  Speaker 4: electoral system is functioning when you've got a five-party system
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  Speaker 4: like this.
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  Speaker 3: Right.
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  Speaker 1: So, David Cletto, quick final thoughts from you. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: does Kim Campbell sue for copyright infringement on this election?
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  Speaker 1: Because this is the only thing I can think of
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  Speaker 1: that's even close to this potential dynamic. Have you seen
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  Speaker 1: anything like this?
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  Speaker 3: No, and I don't think you can find any real
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  Speaker 3: comparators in any other country that uses our voting system, right?
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  Speaker 3: To find five parties over, let's say, 10% with not
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  Speaker 3: a single one getting above a third of the vote
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  Speaker 3: is unprecedented, right?
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  Speaker 2: When I was a student 25 years ago.
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  Speaker 3: In political science at Carleton, we would read this book
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  Speaker 3: called Absent Mandate by a number of Canadian political scientists
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  Speaker 3: that described the lack of a policy mandate that Canadian
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  Speaker 3: governments often get. That was about policy. This is really
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  Speaker 3: about that question. And so if the PQ does win,
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  Speaker 3: they're going to have majority government, the.
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  Speaker 2: Power that comes with it.
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  Speaker 3: But the question that will likely hang over the government is,
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  Speaker 3: does it actually have a mandate to do anything? And
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  Speaker 3: I think it's going to complicate a lot of what
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  Speaker 3: happens in Quebec and probably the impact it has on
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  Speaker 3: federal politics going forward, because Quebecers don't appear to be
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  Speaker 3: at least a week out ready to give a clear
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  Speaker 3: verdict on what direction they want their province to go
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  Speaker 3: at this point.
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  Speaker 1: You know where we might see a dynamic like this
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  Speaker 1: next time is in the United Kingdom in their next
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  Speaker 1: national elections with reform and restore and all of this
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  Speaker 1: splintering of the movements over there. So we've got that
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  Speaker 1: to look forward to. David Coletto, Eric Grenier, thank you
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  Speaker 1: so much. I always learn something when I have you
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  Speaker 1: two on. Thank you so much, gang.