Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 58 - 6/18/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 58 - 6/18/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 58 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:35
Happy Tuesday. Another day in the arena, guys.
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We got a lot to get to, but I just got one thing to say to
0:40
start off today's pod. Anything's possible.
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The Boston Celtics hoisting banner 18.
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I tell you what, guys, I'm a born, born and raised, die hard
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New Englander, Massachusetts born and raised and we used to
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be title town. It's been a while since we had a
0:57
championship. Actually, the last one was the
1:00
the Patriots the last title I remember it was a what was it a
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thirteen to three-game against the against the Rams in the
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Super Bowl. The last one with Brady and and
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the Pats. But anyway, Celtics get it done
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a long time coming again. The Tatum Brown years took a lot
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of ups and downs, but finally got it done last night to win
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the NBA title. But more importantly, we're able
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to cash our last bet of the NBA season under baby, or as we like
1:24
to say in Boston. Yeah, the under came through.
1:27
And again, we got a little a little dicey there because at
1:30
halftime looked like that thing was going to sail over.
1:32
And luckily, the game script, I kept telling my my wife, who
1:36
doesn't watch a ton of games with me.
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Ironically enough, she actually was interested in this one
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because a bunch of her colleagues were going to the
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game. And there's kind of a buzz in
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Boston. Luckily, no, no, no shenanigans
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or too much shenanigans in the streets, tearing down St. lights
1:50
and fighting with cops. It was a pretty, pretty tame
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celebration. I like the the O 4 Red Sox.
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But anyway, wife was watching the game.
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I told her I had the under and she's like, oh, it's not looking
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good. And she kept rooting for me and
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I said, hey, this is going to play out the way you want it to.
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second-half, third quarter, fourth quarter, Celtics will be
2:06
up big. Take your foot off the gas.
2:08
Just keep dribbling the clock. We're able to get that under,
2:11
which was huge. And remember two things about
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that under. One was our magic number in the
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postseason. This is a system we got to put a
2:17
pin in and hopefully use next year when the total is 210 or
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more. Last night under 210, 1/2 the
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under when the magic numbers, 210 or more is third now, or
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finished 31 and 1765% with a 23% ROI.
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And shout out to Rhythm, who does a fantastic job of powering
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this pot. I teased something yesterday.
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I know my guy Gary Garrison was very interested in this, but the
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tease was that they are working on a brand new piece of data or
2:45
information that they're going to add.
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The team at Rhythm we're going to add to the app, and that is
2:49
basically a community model here or basically a community ticker
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basically. So what the great people at
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Rhythm are doing is kind of polling for every single game,
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Everyone who has a model, who has an accountant Rhythm, and
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they're giving you what the community is thinking.
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So remember yesterday we had that good system match, the
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contrarian inflated under against the public, had a couple
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of point off the opener because public hit the over had a good
3:13
system match. But I told you lastly, 82% of
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the community and Rhythm had the under.
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And normally as a contrarian, 82 percent is a red flag.
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You don't want to be on the side of 82% because that means you're
3:24
with the public. But remember, public doesn't
3:26
know about rhythm. I'm doing my best to tell
3:28
everyone about rhythm because they help you win and they're
3:30
just fantastic. But I looked at that as a good
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thing because people who have a who have an account at at rhythm
3:36
are sharp, are data minded, are into models and and AI back
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picks and plays. So the fact that the community
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was heavy on the under that made me like it even more.
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So it got me really excited for the new feature at Rhythm, which
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should be unveiled here pretty shortly.
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I'm a beta tester, basically helping the team of Rhythm get
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it, get it ready to go. But if you haven't done it yet,
3:55
again, I always try to tell you, go download that Rhythm app.
3:59
I believe in Rhythm. Hopefully we've proven it time
4:01
and time again how it's a great benefit and another great tool
4:04
to add in your toolbox. But you haven't done it yet.
4:07
Go sign up for a 7 day free trial of Rhythm.
4:10
You can just do it by clicking any of the links on my Twitter
4:12
page at Josh under score Insights.
4:14
There's a pin tweet at the top and you also find the
4:17
description bio of the pod. There'll be a link there to
4:19
download to download Rhythm and Rhythm's working hard to Add all
4:22
the other sports. We do have some WNBA for the
4:26
rest of the summer and really we're just going to get excited
4:28
for football season because now is a transitional period.
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I do want to mention I do have a six pack here of bets for
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tonight. One play in the NHL, which also
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is a Robo Jackson recommended bet with our friends at Juice
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Reel. Also five MLB bets, So six pack
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tonight. But I just want to say like
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anytime a season ends, like the NBA is now over, so NBA is going
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to be over. Will NHL end tonight?
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If the if the Florida Panthers win, then NHL will be over.
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So we're really getting into the dog days of summer.
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So it's really going to be 99% baseball again.
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We're going to filter in a couple of WNBA plays if we have
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a good system matches. But moving forward the rest of
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the summer, we're going to be just grinding hard.
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Bigley, I should say with Major League Baseball.
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So if you're a baseball better now, it's kind of people will
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say like, oh, it's the slow time, the downtime.
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This is the worst part of the calendar year.
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If you're a better. I disagree.
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I love it when it's just baseball every day, nothing else
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to to to take your attention. So I'm excited about the rest of
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the summer here. And pretty soon we'll be adding
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in some NFL win totals. Some futures bets will be
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getting ready for football, but moving forward with NBA over,
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maybe NHL about to end, it's going to be a lot of baseball.
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And again, maybe some WNBA plays here or there.
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Anyway, looking back to our last night, not just our Celtics
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under, we had a winning night 3 and 2 + 0.48 units.
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Had our awesome Celtics under come through.
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Had a big one with the Phillies. Didn't have to sweat that one.
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But the one that was really fantastic was the G men.
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The G men, the Giants at the Cubs, the Giants were trailing
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in the top of the ninth inning in Thyro Estrada.
6:02
Let's give a golf clap to Thyro Estrada.
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Had a three run bomb to win the game in the top of the ninth and
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shut the door. Bullpen did in the bottom of the
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ninth with a huge come from behind win in the 9th inning.
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Losers were the Blue Jays. Red Sox are too good.
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Actually have a play on the Blue Jays Red Sox today, so stay
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tuned for that. Then kind of a frustrating one,
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which could have been an even better night was Milwaukee,
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mostly because we just crushed the closing line there.
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Got the Brewers around -110 -, 115 they closed like -135 so
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even though Brewers couldn't come through, didn't make any
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beer, no moonshine in the bathtub.
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It was just, you know, prohibition era.
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No, no booze last night as the Brewers couldn't come through.
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But again, tells us that we got our finger on the pulse and we
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are reading the market correctly.
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So either way, guys winning night 3 and 2 + 0.48 units.
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Celtics are NBA champs. We won our last NBA play of the
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year. It was a good night last night.
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So transitioning over to today. Six pack one NHL bet, which I'm
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going to start off the pod with and then five Major League
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Baseball bets. So let's see if we can have a
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winning day and get a little bit of a hot streak going here as we
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kind of move to the second-half here in the month of June.
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Anyway, let's start off with the NHL because we have possibly,
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possibly the last game of the season with the Stanley Cup
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finals here between the Panthers, obviously and the
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Edmonton Oilers. And I have a bet here.
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I have a play on the money line. I picked the side here and I
7:23
think we got a good angle as well as maybe some Deja vu, not
7:27
only market wide movement, but a very similar situation here.
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So if you haven't been paying attention, Florida leads a
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series 3 to one. They can win the cup here
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tonight with a win at home. They're actually up three O and
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we're we're able to move and then win the series here if
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they're able to win in Edmonton, but it was a blowout win for the
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Oilers. What do they win 8 to one
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something like that anyway, now the series shifts back to
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Florida. So first thing I noticed across
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the market is that we have a very sharp steam move in favor
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of the Florida Panthers. Florida Panthers actually open
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this game as low as a -, 130 -, 135 home favorite.
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Now I'm seeing Florida up to -145 -, 150.
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So first thing right off the bat that you notice here for
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tonight's Stanley Cup Finals Game 5 is big steam toward
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Florida. No buyback whatsoever.
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Why do we like steam? Obviously you want to get a, the
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better, the better triggering number, get it before it moves
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too much. But unlike a football game
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where, like, if you missed the -2 1/2 and now it's three 3 1/2,
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you missed the key number, OK. You know, people who bet it
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early when you could lose if you're late.
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I look at baseball and hockey Steam a little differently.
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Yes, I want to pay less of a price, a cheaper price.
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But if you bet Florida -135 I bet a -, 150, they win the game.
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We both win our bet. It's just that you get a little
8:40
bit bigger of a payout because you got it a little bit earlier.
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So more often than not, you know, I'm willing to be with
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Steam in a money line sport because it's not like if you're
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late, you're going to lose. You're just going to make a
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little bit less than people who bet it earlier.
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So big move here toward Florida -130 -. 135 up to -145 -, 150
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tells us steam hit Florida. Pretty good bet split 80% of
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bets, nearly 90% of the money is on Florida.
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Again, don't love being with the public here, but you know, NHL
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betting obviously pales in comparison to NBA or or
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obviously the NFL. So it tells me we've got a lot
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of heavy one way action in favor of Florida with that bet split
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in that line move. Also, finals chalk, so favorites
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in the the NHL Finals are three and one this postseason, but
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this really dates back quite a while.
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Since 2007, NHL Stanley Cup Finals favorites are 80 and 3172
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percent, 23% ROI. So basically if your favorite in
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the Stanley Cup Finals, you're winning three out of four games.
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That would match here. Obviously with Florida.
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If we layer on a few more systems here, postseason
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favorites off a loss that matches with Florida, kind of
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the bounce back angle. You're expected to win.
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You're hungry after a loss 67 and 3764 percent, 7% ROI the
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last three seasons. It's right on that number 23 and
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1364% this postseason. Florida has been great at home
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eight and three this postseason and two other angles here.
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One is that we have a juice reel recommended bet from our buddy
10:10
Robo Jackson. That's right, the AI backed bot.
10:14
Of course, you know I love rhythm.
10:15
I also love juice reel. Juice Reel does a great job
10:17
helping us the power of this podcast.
10:19
You can sync up your sports books to the app.
10:21
It'll track your performance. You can learn about yourself as
10:23
a better your strengths and weaknesses.
10:25
It gives the recommended Robo Jackson basically compiles all
10:29
the data in the app and recommends the two best bets
10:32
each day, which you can play if you want fade, follow whatever.
10:34
I would either follow them or not.
10:36
Definitely not a fade here, but arbitrage opportunity, sharp
10:39
mush opportunities, breakdowns on each individual game from a
10:43
market perspective anyway, Robo Jackson has a best bet on the
10:47
Florida Panthers. The Robo Jackson bot is also
10:50
recommending to Bet Florida here at -145 of course, if you
10:54
haven't done it yet, go sign up for that Juice Reel 7 day free
10:57
trial. That way you can take advantage
10:58
of all these tools to help you become a sharper better.
11:01
But you can click the link right in the bio description of the
11:04
podcast right there within Spotify, iTunes, all the other
11:08
ways you listen to your pod. Lastly, I'm having some Deja vu.
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This is almost like inception, a dream within a dream.
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One of my favorite movies, Christopher Nolan, Leo DiCaprio.
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But anyway, by the way, did the totem stop spinning at the end?
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Did it fall? Did it keep spinning?
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I guess we'll never know. Anyway, this is a very similar
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spot. If we can kind of look at this
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game tonight, similar to the Celtics and The Mavericks.
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Eerie similarities here. Deja Vu, you have the favorite
11:35
going into the series who got up three O in game four.
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They could have closed it out in the opponent's court or floor or
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or rink, I should say, or ice basically.
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And what happens? They get blown out, so the team
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who was down O3 has a blowout win at home in game four.
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Then it flips the game five. The good team at home gets it
11:54
done and hoist the title. That's the same exact thing.
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Basically, both of these series are following to a tee.
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Remember, if you like turn on ESPN, you saw a lot of there's a
12:04
stat there like there hasn't been both ANHL and NBA final
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sweep. You know, both in the same year
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since I think like the 80s or something like that.
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But anyway, seems like a very similar situation up three O a
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chance to close it out, yet you get blown out only to come back
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on your home, your homecourt, your home ice and and hoist the
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title that night. So basically the the spot that
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Florida is in tonight is the same spot that the Celtics were
12:29
in last night. So Long story short, we got a
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big steam move toward Florida. We have a couple good system
12:34
matches, good chalk finals pro pro bets here, good bet split
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Robo Jackson recommended bet and again, Deja vu Florida in the
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same spot as the Celtics. So I'm a big Panthers fan
12:45
tonight, even though they beaten my Bruins the last two
12:48
postseasons. I'm betting the Florida Panthers
12:50
to hoist the Stanley Cup tonight.
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Give me Florida. I got them at -145 Now over to
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some Major League Baseball 1 bet down.
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We got five to go. Big baseball day here today.
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And again, don't be sad that like NBA is over baseball again,
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if you're a grinder, you're listening to this pod, you're
13:08
probably a grinder like my guy King Nebuchadnezzar and the
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whole crew here, Ben and Devin Fernandez, I love baseball.
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I think you might love it too. So let's see if we can get some
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winners here for tonight. So first on the board for me,
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I'm going to take a shot on a dog here.
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Let's see if we can get a dog to bark or maybe a bird to tweet.
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Get what I'm saying, Hint, hint. Anyway, Baltimore Orioles, New
13:30
York Yankees going to this one. We have the Orioles, 47 and 24.
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Just took two or three against the Phillies.
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They won the series finale on Sunday 8:00 to 3:00 as a - 135
13:40
home favorite. On the flip side, the Yankees 50
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and 24 best record in baseball, but they did just lose two or
13:45
three against the Red Sox lost 9:00 to 3:00 on Sunday night.
13:48
Baseball pitching match up for tonight in the Bronx.
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We have Albert Suarez ready going for the Orioles three and
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O 1.61 ERA. He'll be opposed by the lefty
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Nestor Cortez three and five 3.59 ERA.
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So what have we seen across the market here?
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Well, Publix on the Yankees, the Yankees, but the lines dropping
14:07
toward Baltimore and Baltimore's a very good team getting plus
14:10
money with a lot of system matches.
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I'm going O's here, guys. This game open with the Yankees
14:15
listed as high as a -, 155 home favorite.
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Now they're down to -140 some shops even further down to like
14:21
-135 That's notable because 2/3 of bets are going Yankees.
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Yet the lines dropping away from the Yankees toward Baltimore.
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So this is a classic reverse line move when the betting line
14:32
goes away from the popular side Yankees toward the unpopular
14:35
side. Baltimore only getting about 1/3
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of bets here. Baltimore has moved from plus
14:39
130 down to plus 1/20. And again ask yourself this, if
14:43
the majority of betters are going Yankees, why are the odds
14:46
makers dropping the Yankees line to give out a better price
14:49
basically to back to Yankees? Well, because smart money here
14:52
looks to be siding with the with the Orioles.
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So I'll take the plus money here at Baltimore.
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I got Baltimore at plus 1/22, the Orioles only getting 30.
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What was it, 34% bets but 60% of money.
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So great low bets, higher dollar bet split, which you can find
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those bet splits if you're a member of vesan.com coming
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directly from DraftKings. Orioles system match wise also a
15:14
divisional dog built in familiarity, leveling the
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playing field, benefiting the team, getting some plus money
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dog in a high total game. Total in this one is 9, so more
15:23
expected run scored would basically lead to more variance
15:27
and opposite opportunities. The Orioles by the way, this is
15:30
system match. We played them, I want to say
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pretty much every time they've matched this year, but Orioles
15:34
as a dog. Baltimore is 7 and four as a dog
15:37
this year. 64 percent, 32% ROI since the start of last year.
15:42
The OS are 51 and 3857% with a 25% ROI.
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That means they are the best dog team in baseball since the start
15:50
of last year. They're a dog, obviously here
15:52
tonight. Orioles are hitting 261 against
15:55
lefties this year, 8th best in baseball.
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Orioles are three and one against the Yankees and dig a
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little deeper into these pitchers.
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Suarez kind of came out of nowhere, 1.74 ERA in two June
16:06
starts, he's only giving up two runs in 10.1 innings.
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Cortez, meanwhile, 4.86 ERA in three starts in June, he's
16:13
giving up nine runs in 16.2 innings.
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We add it all up here guys. If you just told me you like the
16:19
Orioles, a really good team of value play getting plus 120, I'm
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not going to argue with you. But the fact that Publix Yankees
16:24
lines going to Baltimore, I think it's a good opportunity
16:27
here to take a shot on the Orioles as a dog.
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I'm going Baltimore got the OS at plus 1/22.
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Keep on cruising. I bet against them last night.
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I ain't making the same mistake tonight.
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I'm going with my Boston Red Sox.
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Give me the Sox here tonight. Guys got them at -120 Sox are on
16:42
the road at Toronto. Red Sox are 38 and 35 on the
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year. They won the opener last night
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7:00 to 3:00 as a plus one O 5 row dog rematch tonight.
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Sox are going with Tanner Houk seven and five, two point O 8
16:55
ERA Blue Jays who are 35 and 37. They're going with Rady Chris
16:58
Bassett who's six and six with a 3.56 year, right.
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Why do I like Boston tonight? Well, this would be a pick em to
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fave line move. This game opened right down the
17:07
middle coin flip game basically -110 odds for both teams.
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Now we've seen Boston go from -110 up to -120 We talked about
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this quite a bit, but the 5050 line move in a vacuum or not a
17:20
5050 line, but a pick em to fave line move.
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If you open at a pick em, that's notable to me because basically
17:26
the odds maker saying they're even.
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But wise guys who set their own numbers, they may disagree.
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They may say, oh, that's a pick em.
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Well, we have one team favored, therefore we're getting a good
17:34
price in this situation will be on Boston.
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So the fact you have a 10 cent steam move toward Red Sox -110
17:40
to -120 good indication that pro money is on Boston.
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Here Red Sox are getting 78% of bets but 85% of dollars.
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So good low bets, higher dollar heavy pro and Joe Bet split in
17:52
their favor. I'm going to bank on the Red Sox
17:54
bats. They're hitting 25378 home runs,
17:57
339 runs scored. Actually just got Tyler O'Neill
18:00
back who at two homers last night, Blue Jays only hitting
18:03
23360 homers, 281 runs scored. Also I got a system match here.
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Sweet spot Short Rd. favorites. You guys know this one.
18:12
But if you're a road favorite -130 or less again, Boston's
18:16
-120 those teams are one O 5 and 8356% with a 4% ROI.
18:22
Corelative betting favorite low total Boston favored -120 told
18:26
this one is 7 1/2. I believe it actually fell 8
18:29
down to seven half. Looks like maybe there's some
18:30
under money there, but fewer amount of expected run scored.
18:33
Again, more likely to come from quote UN quote that better team.
18:37
Also, you look at Boston in particular with Tanner Hulk on
18:40
the mound 5 and O his last five starts.
18:43
Hulk is a 1.66 ERA on the road. He's been great home and road,
18:47
but even better on the road, 1.66 versus 2.38 at home.
18:51
Meanwhile, Bassett 4.12 ERA at home versus 3 on the road.
18:55
He's been worse at home than on the road.
18:56
He's on the road tonight and I was digging into the Blue Jays a
18:59
little bit as a dog, just talked about how great the Orioles are
19:01
as a dog. It's the opposite with Bolt,
19:03
with Toronto. Toronto is just 7 and 1828% as a
19:07
dog this year. That's the fourth worst dog team
19:10
in baseball in Red Sox. Better bullpen, 3.48 ERA versus
19:14
4.67. But really with the Red Sox here
19:17
tonight, it's the fact that it was a pick em game at the open
19:20
and Sox are up to -120 tells me smart money's on Boston.
19:23
I'm on the Red Sox at -120 Devon cruising Tampa Bay and Minnesota
19:30
big, big match up here tonight or not a big match up, but I
19:34
should instead instead say a big line move in favor of the
19:39
Minnesota Twinkies here. So going into this match up, we
19:42
have the Tampa Bay Rays who are a bit struggling this year.
19:45
Not what we're used to, 34 and 38.
19:48
Tampa Bay just lost two or three against Atlanta, Minnesota, 40
19:52
and 32 playing pretty well right now.
19:53
They won I think what five or six straight.
19:55
Let me see 1-2 let's see 123457 of their last eight.
20:01
So playing pretty good ball right now.
20:03
They're at home obviously tonight pitching match up.
20:06
We have Aaron Cavalli going for Tampa Bay.
20:09
He's two and five with a 5.1 OERA.
20:12
He'll be opposed by Pablo Lopez who's six and six, 5.33 area.
20:16
I was a little surprised by that Lopez's.
20:18
Usually a pretty good pitcher. I was I couldn't believe his ERA
20:20
was 5 1/2. Anyway, reason why I like
20:23
Minnesota here. Massive steam move.
20:26
This game opened with Minnesota listed around a -, 155 home
20:30
favorite. Now they're all the way up to
20:32
-175 So you have about a 2025 cents steam move away from
20:39
sorry, away from Tampa and toward Minnesota tells us smart
20:42
money here really hammered Minnesota with no let up.
20:44
This is what that you know sharp move, no let up play that we
20:47
always love to to take advantage of system match here, which I
20:51
really like is both day off. Take the favorite very simple
20:54
that system is 62 percent 495 and three O 4 with a 4% ROI
20:59
since the start of 2020. Also, if you'll get Minnesota,
21:04
they're one of the better teams as a favorite this year.
21:06
They are 31 and 16 as a favorite, 66 percent, 10% ROI.
21:10
But in particular when they're favored against a sub 500 team,
21:14
basically favored against a bad team, they're 22 and 679
21:18
percent, 27% ROI. I'm going to bank on the offense
21:22
of Minnesota. They're hitting 24383 homers,
21:25
334 runs scored. I know Correa has been red hot
21:28
recently versus Tampa who's only hitting two 3257 homers, 279
21:34
runs scored. Minnesota has been good at home
21:37
22 and 14 and they're also a non division favorite.
21:40
So lack of familiarity benefiting, quote UN quote the
21:42
better team and just look at the last 10 games here.
21:45
Kind of a decent sample here. But Minnesota seven and three,
21:48
their last 10, they're hitting 326 three-point 9 O team ERA.
21:53
Flip it the other way. Tampa Bay, their last 10,
21:55
they're only three and seven. They're hitting two O 6 have an
21:58
ERA of 5.22. Aaron Cavalli also his last
22:01
seven starts. Tampa's lost all seven.
22:04
He's got an ERA on the road of 6.37, so add it all up.
22:07
Guys, Really, the steam just jumped out at me with this one.
22:11
I got to go Minnesota. Looks like a lot of smart money
22:13
on the Twinkies. I'm going Twins.
22:15
I got Minnesota at -175 two more bets for you.
22:19
I tell you this team is red hot, and I'm going to tell you why.
22:22
There's something going on with this team.
22:24
New York Mets on the road at the Texas Rangers.
22:27
Going into this one, we have the New York Mets red hot.
22:32
The Mets have now won. What is it?
22:34
They've won six straight games and they had a big one last
22:37
night. 14 to two over the Rangers.
22:40
The New York Mets are now 34 and 37.
22:43
Texas Rangers 33 and 39. Pitching matchup for tonight.
22:46
Luis Severino going for the Mets.
22:49
Remember, he was with the Yankees for a while.
22:50
I think he's been a good pick up four and two. 3.12 ERA for the
22:53
Mets. Lorenzen, who threw the no, no,
22:56
was it last year or the year before?
22:58
Four and three, 2.86 ERA. But I'm going to go with the
23:01
Mets here, not just because they're red hot, but because
23:05
pretty much a pick em to fave line move.
23:06
This game opened basically a pick em minus one O 5, both
23:10
sides -110 both sides. Now you're seeing the Mets creep
23:13
up to -115 So we just talked a minute ago about that Toronto
23:18
Red Sox game where again, pick em and then see where it moves.
23:21
Move to the Red Sox, pick em here, it's moved to the Mets.
23:24
Mets are getting around 65% of bets, but over 70% of dollars.
23:28
So good low bets, higher dollars, bet split.
23:31
I got a lot of system matches on the Mets here.
23:33
They would qualify as a short Rd. favorite sweet spot -130 or
23:38
less 56% this year. Another system I have is if
23:41
you're both below 500, take the favorite.
23:43
Very simple. That's 60% this season.
23:46
Non division Rd. favorite off a win. 58% this year.
23:50
Also a interleague favorite. A lack of familiarity benefiting
23:53
quote UN quote the better team offensively.
23:56
Mets have really gotten the bats going here recently, especially
23:59
Lindor. I think he had four hits last
24:00
night, but they're hitting 247 as a team.
24:03
Eighty home runs, 327 runs scored.
24:06
The Rangers are only hitting 23769 homers, 302 runs scored.
24:12
Home Rd. Texas 16 and 18 at home.
24:15
The Mets are actually above 516 and 14 on the road and last 10.
24:20
Mets are eight and two hitting 289 with an ERA of three.
24:24
Texas is three and seven hitting $1.94 ERA of nearly six.
24:29
Also, if you look at Severino in the month of June, the Mets are
24:34
two and O and his two starts 1.29 ERA.
24:37
But really, you want to know why you should take the Mets tonight
24:39
and why they're red hot right now?
24:41
Grimace, have you guys seen this?
24:43
I'm actually joking, but it's actually true.
24:45
Since Grimace, who is the mascot of McDonald's, this is as crazy
24:50
as it gets. He threw out the first pitch
24:53
what, six games ago at at Citi Field?
24:56
They've won every single game since Grimace threw out the
24:57
first pitch. So do it for Grimace.
25:00
Let's go. New York Mets, I'm on the Mets
25:03
at -115 last better the night. Let's see if we can finish off
25:07
with some revenge after we beat the closing line by like $0.20
25:11
last night but couldn't come through.
25:13
I'm talking about the Brew Crew, Milwaukee Brewers at the Los
25:17
Angeles Angels, Angels coming to this one, 2029 and 43 again, one
25:22
last night, five to three. Cash is a + 115 home dog rematch
25:26
tonight. The Brewers who are 42 and 30,
25:28
they're going with Tobias Myers. He's been good three and two
25:32
with a 3.76 ERA. Angels, meanwhile, are going
25:35
with Griffin Canning two and seven 4.76 ERA.
25:39
This move is all toward the Brewers.
25:41
Brewers open this game as low as a -, 120 -, 130 Rd. favorite.
25:46
Now they're up to -140 -, 145 S big steam hitting the beer
25:51
makers causing that line move in their favor.
25:53
They're getting around 75% of bets, but nearly 85% of dollars.
25:57
So tells us the smart money here is leaning and really coming
26:00
down hard on Milwaukee system matches.
26:03
We have favorites off a loss, playing an opponent off a win.
26:06
232 and one 4661% this year, 5% ROI.
26:12
Favorites with the winning record off a loss playing a
26:14
below 500 team. They're 71 and 3766 percent, 6%
26:19
ROI. Milwaukee has been a very good
26:22
chalk team as well. Milwaukee is 24 and 14 as a
26:25
favorite this year, 63% with a 10% ROI.
26:28
That's the 7th best favorite in baseball.
26:32
Brewers interleague favorite value again, lack of familiarity
26:35
benefiting the better team. I'm going to bank on Milwaukee's
26:37
bats hopefully coming to life tonight.
26:39
They are hitting 253 with 347 runs scored.
26:43
LA sitting 239 with only two 99 runs scored.
26:47
Digging a little bit into the pitchers, Myers has a 0.64 ERA
26:51
in two June starts. He's been great.
26:53
Knock on what? Hope it continues, but he's only
26:55
giving up one run in 14 innings pitched in June.
26:58
He's got a 2.53 ERA on the road versus 5.12 at home.
27:03
He's on the road tonight. Angels, by the way.
27:05
Oh, and three and Canning's last three starts.
27:07
And the Brewers are 20 and 18 on the road.
27:09
Angels 12 and 23 at home. One of the worst home teams in
27:12
baseball. So they let us down last night.
27:15
Don't let me down tonight. Let's make some beer.
27:17
Let's brew some beer. Let's go beer makers.
27:20
I'm on Milwaukee at -140 so 5 packing baseball tonight.
27:25
Can we get three or more of these Baltimore Orioles?
27:28
It'd be nice if we can get a + 120 dog to cash Orioles, Red
27:32
Sox, Minnesota Twins, New York Mets, and the Milwaukee Brew
27:35
Crew. That about does it for episode
27:38
58 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by
27:42
Rhythm. But First off or lastly, as we
27:45
finish up the pod here, I got to ask a favor of you guys.
27:49
First off, thank you. Thank you for listening.
27:51
Thank you for tuning in each day.
27:53
Thank you for being a part of the data-driven community that
27:56
we've created here. So First off, thank you because
27:59
again, without you guys listening again, I, I, I, maybe
28:02
I do this pod with, with nobody listening because I love sports
28:04
betting so much. But again, the fact we have a
28:06
community, I'm just lucky enough to, you know, kind of lead the
28:09
crew. It means a lot to me.
28:11
So thank you for your support. But secondly, can you help me
28:13
grow this podcast organically? First thing you can do is just
28:17
recommend it to a friend. You can follow it so you get
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alerted on Spotify or iTunes every time a new pod comes out
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But most of all, can you please give this podcast a 5 star
28:29
review? It'll take you 2 seconds, but
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really Spotify or iTunes, those are the big ones.
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Give it five stars. It really helps us to rise up
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the ranks, gain credibility and grow organically.
28:40
So give it a 5 star review if you haven't done it yet.
28:42
Seriously, I'd really appreciate that.
28:45
Next, if you are enjoying the data-driven breakdowns, maybe
28:49
you love betting on sports, but you never really had the success
28:52
that you wanted. And I realizing, hey, let me
28:55
leave my bias at the door. Let me bet based on reading the
28:58
market, being contrarian, locating sharp action, being
29:02
with betting system matches, flat betting, no parlays.
29:05
Whatever the case may be, if you enjoy the breakdowns and you
29:07
want to learn more about how to be a sharp data-driven
29:10
contrarian better, then guess what?
29:12
I wrote a book. Go buy my book.
29:15
Just go to Amazon.com, type in the Everything Guide to Sports
29:18
Betting, pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
29:20
It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
29:22
How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
29:25
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
29:27
person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
29:30
a bankroll management plan, chapters on all the major
29:33
sports. It's all included in the
29:35
Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
29:36
So pick one up and when I see you at the book, I'm going to
29:39
sign my book for you and buy you a beer.
29:42
Or if you don't drink, I'll buy a ginger ale.
29:44
That about does it for episode 58 of the All Systems Go Sports
29:48
Betting podcast. Powered by rhythm.
29:51
Of course, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City,
29:54
Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook in New Hampshire, Foxwoods
29:57
or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
29:59
Boston or Plain Ridge Park casino R.E.M. jam Springfield,
30:03
the my neck of the woods in Massachusetts, or of course, out
30:05
in the desert where the true grinders get down.
30:07
Where Billy Walters sends his number runners with lowest use
30:10
possible is about the South Point Sweat and sharp contrarian
30:13
plays jumping in the stadium swim pool.
30:16
However it may be. You're going to walk up to me.
30:17
You're going to show me a Celtics under under 210 1/2
30:22
ticket. You're going to show me a Giants
30:24
Thyro Estrada. What a huge hit that was last
30:26
night. Three run Homer to win it.
30:28
You're going to show me a Philly's ticket.
30:30
Guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
30:31
you. We're going to post about the
30:32
book. Sweat Sharp can train plays all
30:34
night long. So wish you the best of luck
30:37
everyone have a fantastic Tuesday.
30:39
My parting words, as always, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet
30:43
against the public, place yourself on the side of the
30:45
house, always be with the smart money, never against it.
30:47
Well, smart money won every time.
30:49
Of course not. Look at that Brewers game last
30:51
night. We nailed the closing line.
30:53
They just didn't come through for us.
30:54
Sometimes that's the way betting goes.
30:56
But here's the thing, if we can consistently long term stay true
30:59
to the model against the public, with the house, with the pros,
31:02
flat bet, avoid parlays, get some CLV.
31:05
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
31:08
So enjoy the sweats tonight guys.
31:09
Hopefully the Panthers close it out, let's get some winners on
31:12
the diamond, and then we'll be right back at it for tomorrow on
31:15
a big Wednesday for episode 59 of the All Systems Go Sports
31:19
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
31:21
Have a great night everyone. Good luck and always remember
31:25
anything's possible.