Latest / Toadstool Sports / Wednesday BEST BETS | I Hate This | NBA Finals + MLB & WNBA | 6/3/26

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Wednesday BEST BETS | I Hate This | NBA Finals + MLB & WNBA | 6/3/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm. Man, a hole in your.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Chase, the black coffee on the felt Man, you look
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head. Now
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: you stare at the chips like they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet?
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor, your name, steal me
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: something on somebody for show.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Put the glass.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Down, baby, look at me?
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: No, hold on, hold on, nothing nice not now.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Hold on, load up me, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: Now, what's up? Everybody? It's towed back with you with
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: Toadstool Sports. It is Wednesday, June third. I'm not happy.
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: One and two on the show yesterday definitely could have
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: at least been two and one. Toronto was down by one.
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: It was a tied game. Pretty close to the fifth inning.
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: They were down three to two. They wound up losing
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: the game outright as well, four to three. The under
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: in Giants Milwaukee absolutely should have gotten there. The first
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: five got there. I think we might have to downgrade
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: the Giants bullpen way more. I don't know what else
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: that I have to say about that first five under hit,
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: but we had the full game under and it was
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: looking pretty good. It was four to one in the
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: eighth inning. Oh but yeah, then the teams are gonna
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: just combine for six fucking runs in the eighth inning. Yeah, okay,
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: just get out of here with that shit. And then
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: the only play that one was the one that the
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: market didn't agree with. The A's first five was a winner,
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: and the full game was a winner two to one,
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: same score. I'm pretty sure gauge jump got us there
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: in that one. I have nothing really to say about that. Otherwise,
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: we need to get back on track here. This is bad,
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: really bad. I mean this overall, this record over the
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: last sixty days is good. Uh you know it was
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: a good run. We're on the downswing right now. We
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: need to somehow turn it around. I hate the board today.
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: I absolutely despise it. I'm gonna try to just get
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: through it. I don't know what else I have to say,
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: dirty sock, what's up? Why would you even listen to me?
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: Why would anybody listen to me? Right now? Don't pay
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: attention to anything I have to say here. Seriously, do
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: not baseball. I hate this baseball board, absolutely hate it.
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: Miami at Washington is the first game. Washington is trying
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: to avoid being swept by Miami here. I don't know,
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: wait does Miami I don't know. I forget. I looked
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: at this earlier today, like who is this team playing next?
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: Because you got to see if Miami has a look
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: ahead spot. They're playing Tampa next, so I guess maybe
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: that's their American League geographic rival. So the situation favors
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: Washington here because they're gonna be a little bit extra
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: motivated try to avoid the sweep. Washington is terrible at
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: home though, so right away, I'm like, do you really
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: want to back Washington here? And they're going up against
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: Miami's best picture, so yeah, you probably don't actually want
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: to do that, even though the situation does back it.
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: Miami used five relief pitchers yesterday, although they have the
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: better bullpen, Washington only used two, which evens out the
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: bullpen's a little bit. But Miami's ranked fourth and bullpen
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: whip Washington is twenty third. Washington has the better offense
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: number four, tied and fourth with Pittsburgh. Now Miami is yeah, nineteenth.
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: Max Meyer is pitching for Miami, though I don't really
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: think I would want to jump in and fade this guy.
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: He's got a two point nine to seventy RA one
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: point one whip. There are some indicators that you might
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: be able to fade him here.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: Though.
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: He's got a four point seven to eight roady RA,
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: so he's not as good on the road. He was
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: not great in his last down against the Mets, but
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: I'd be more inclined to give him a pass for
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: that because it was his second straight start against the Mets,
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: so they had just seen him and he dominated them
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: one hit seven innings in the first of the two,
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: so they obviously adjusted and they hit him better in
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: the next game, but he still got unlucky in that game.
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: He gave up five and runs on six hits, three walks.
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: His walk number, you'd like to see him a little
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: bit lower, but his strikeout rates really high. His hit
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: rate is also low, and that's that was the case
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: over the last month as well, and prior to that
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: Mets loss, Miami had won his previous five stars, So
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: there are some indicators. Yeah, I mean, like, I guess
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: you could make the argument he's falling out of form
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: a little bit here. I really don't think so, though.
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: I just think that was a bad set up for him,
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: having to face the Mets twice in a row. They
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: made the adjustments. But perhaps the better indicator way maybe
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: he is fatable here is that Washington has done well
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: against him twenty two at bats, four strikeouts, one walk,
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: three sixty four average one thy seventy three ohps. See.
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: You might be able to fade him looking at those
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: numbers and the fact that he's not as good on
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: the road. But if you're gonna back Washington, you also
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: have to back Andrew Alvarez, who he's been Okay, he's
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: been in and out of Washington started rotation over the
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: last couple of years. He's been out of the bullpen
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: this year four point zero two ERA one point two
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: eight whip. He hasn't pitched that much though he's only
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: made like four appearances this year. None of them have
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: gone past four and a third innings. And I think
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: he got hurt. I guess after April. I don't know.
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: He pitched pretty well against the Giants in one appearance
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: in April, and then it looks like he missed a month.
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: I don't know if he got sent to the miners
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: or if he was injured. No idea came back, and
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: he's worked out of the bullpen a few times in
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: the month of May, but they've had him kind of
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: on a starter's schedule, but he just doesn't go deep
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: into games. So I think you're looking at Washington probably
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: using a lot of their bullpen here. So there's no
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: way I'd really want to back Washington here. I just
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: can't do it, even though the situation might indicate that way.
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: Meyer has a few negatives that we see there. But
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: sixty two percent of tickets, sixty seven percent of the
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: cash on Miami, Washington is a very very slight underdog
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: or they're at like small minus money here, So the
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: oddsmakers are telling you they do think this is like
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: kind of a toss up game here, even though you're
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: looking at Miami's best starting pitcher here. I'm not gonna
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: do anything with this game. But yeah, that is the
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: setup with it. You can do what you want with it.
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: The totals eight and a half. I don't have a
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: great read on what to do with that game. I mean,
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: I basically just told you the situation does line up
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: on Washington, but I think there are just way too
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: many negatives in the matchup to actually do it. Gerald,
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Well, I have to
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: talk about it. It's the it's like the main sport
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: that's going on right now. Kyle, what's up, Dirty Soak? Yeah,
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: well that's good. Well I have not made that much
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: money off of my own opinions, so I just haven't
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: been betting large enough amounts on these things to do it.
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: Detroit at Tampa Bay, This I believe is the end
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: of this series. Tampa Bay is on the verge of
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: getting swept, believe it or not, at home by a
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: Detroit team that was really struggling. So this looks like
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: it should be a motivated spot for Tampa Bay. They're
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: the better team here. They got shut out yesterday, ate nothing,
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: and now they're trying to avoid getting swept, So could
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: be a motivated spot here for Tampa. I'm not sure
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: that I actually love the pitching matchup here for them, though.
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: Tampa does play Miami next. Who cares Detroit has some
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: divisional matchup next. I think I think they're playing who
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: are they playing? Minnesota? I don't even know something good
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: to know though, because like, do they know they have
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: to Seattle next to my mistake, So actually they might
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: look ahead to that because Seattle has been really hot recently,
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: so maybe will look ahead to the the Al West
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: leader there. So yeah, situationally, the spot favors Tampa Bay here.
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: As far as the bullpen's, Tampa Bay used a bunch
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: of guys out of it yesterday four Detroit only US one.
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: So Detroit's bullpen sets up better here. The ranked twenty first,
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay eighteenth, but Tampa Bay's bullpen ERA is worse,
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: So I think Detroit has a bullpen edge in this game.
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay has the better offense their eighth Detroit is
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: twenty fourth, currently tied with the Red Sox. As those
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: teams keep kind of bouncing around a little bit, Detroit's
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: going with Troy Melton here. He's got good numbers, very
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: small sample size, the one point four to two ERA
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: point nine to five whip. He's only made two appearances
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: so far, but they were full starters workloads. Basically he
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: did okay. He's only allowed two runs in twelve and
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: two thirds innings on the road against Baltimore and on
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: the road against the White Sox eight hits all out
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: over that span, but four to four strikeout walk Razero
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: is kind of an issue. Like his strike out rate
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: is just really low, so that's kind of the issue there.
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: I don't really like guys that just don't strike anybody out.
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: Although you look at his numbers last year, he made
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: four starts. He worked out of the bullpen a bit
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: as well. His numbers were good last year two point
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: seven to six ERA, one point oh one whip. His
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: strike out rate was a little bit more tolerable, although
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: still low, but he had a really low hit rate.
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: So Melton is actually not that bad. Even though Uksliki
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: kind of throws junk and Tampa do is not not
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: Jansen junk. Tampa does not have much as far as
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: numbers against him. They're oh for one. Only Mesa and
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: Mullins have ever faced him oh for one with a
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: strikeout and a walk, So Melton might actually pitch well here.
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: Tampa is going with Nick Martinez, who's been surprisingly good
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: this year one point six to two ERA, one point
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: one to one WHIP. But I think this is going
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: to regress. I mean, he's a decent pitcher, but he's
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: not this good and he's thirty five years old. He's
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: been really good, though home and away pretty much the same.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: He's allowed one or fewer and run in every start
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: on the entire season. Actually, no, two or fewer at
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: every start on the entire season, my mistake. Two or fewer.
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: But he's only allowed more than one twice or no, sorry,
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: three times. So yeah, he's not allowing runs at a
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: high rate at all. But over the course of the season,
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: he's allowed almost one hit per inning. Strikeout rates low.
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is fine. That's been basically the same
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: over the past month, except his hit rate went up
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: thirty four and twenty nine to two thirds inning seventeen strikeouts,
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: pretty low, but also a very low walk rate three walks.
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: Tampa's won six of his last seven starts and nine
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: of his eleven this season, I think is what that is.
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: He does not have good numbers against Detroit though, thirty
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: two at bats three forty four batting average, one thousand
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: and seveny oh ps, eight to two strike out walk ratio.
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: But do you really want to bank on him having
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: like the worst start of his season here against the
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: Detroit team that hasn't been hitting at all. I don't
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: think I do, so I might lean to Detroit. Well,
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: I can't lean to Detroit either, because Tampa Bay is
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: trying to avoid the sweep and of the better team.
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: The money is indicating against Tampa though. There at minus
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: one forty five or so here on the money line,
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: sixty eight percent of the tickets and fifty two percent
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them. So the public is still
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: coming in on Tampa Bay because they have the better
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: record and they're still leading to Al East. I'm pretty
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: sure because the Yankees lost the Schlitler game yesterday, so
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: the money is indicating towards Detroit. I mean, I could
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: see the argument for it. They have the better bullpend,
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: their starting pitcher actually might have a slight advantage here too,
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: based on what we saw with the matchup numbers. So
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: I as insane as it sounds, Detroit might actually sweep
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay here. There is definitely a possibility of that.
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: There's some argument to be made for a first five
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: under here as well. I would not go full game
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: with it. Don't like these bullpens totals eight for the
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: full game basically, but the first five under makes some
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: sense if you think Martinez is gonna continue pitching well
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: and Melton is kind of an under. The radar pitcher,
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: although there are definitely concerns with both of them in
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: this game though, so that's a pass for me. White
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: Sox at Minnesota is an ESPN Unlimited game. This is
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: all afternoon in action. Minnesota is on the version of
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: a sweep. They've won the first two games. We have
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: a lot of teams trying to avoid sweeps. Today. Minnesota
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: plays Kansas City next. I don't know that that's really
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: a cause for a look ahead. I know it's a
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: divisional series, but the White Sox I think still this
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: is a bigger game for Minnesota than the Kansas City series.
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: I think even if Minnesota is on the verge of
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: the sweep pair, I think they're gonna be motivated to
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: try to do that because they lost three out of
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: four at Chicago not that long ago. White Sox use
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: chruly pitchers. Yesterday, Minnesota is three. But you know, Chicago's
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: gonna show up and try to avoid the sweep here,
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: you know, and they're the better team. The White Sox
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: bullpen wise, they're not great, but they're seventeenth. Minnesota's bullpen
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: has been one of the worst. They're at twenty seventh,
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: so White Sox have a better bullpen here. White Sox
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: offense has been quite good. They're number six, Minnesota is eighteenth,
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: so the White Sox have an offensive edge as well. Generally,
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: then you look at the starting pitching matchup, I'm like, yeah,
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: do you do you really want to back Eric Fetti?
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: Though for the White Sox I would generally say no,
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: you do not. He's got a five point four e
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: RA one point four to eight whip. This is not good. Obviously,
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: he's been really bad on the road seven point five
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: to four Roady Ray right away. Yeah, I'm like, yeah,
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: you can't back this. He's been bad this month. Twelve
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: to twelve strike out walk ratio during May, I mean,
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: with eight home runs allowed in thirty two hits, a
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: lot of twenty innings. These are horrible. He's in bad
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: form here right now. However, he does actually have good
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: numbers against Minnesota in thirty six at bats two twenty
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: two average five to seventy eight ops. I hate when
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: everything doesn't line up nicely Man ten to four strikeout
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: walk ratiom. I mean, if Fedti is gonna pitch well,
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: it could be in a game like this where he's
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: facing a team that he generally does well against but
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: he's really bad on the road. He's an awful form
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: right now. I can't back him. Man uh Taj. Bradley
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: is getting the start from Minnesota. He's been pretty good
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: for them three point two to one ERA, one point
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: two to one with, but he has been worse recently.
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: He is better at home though, two point three to
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: three homey RA. He had a bad start last time
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: out against Pittsburgh. We lost the first five under in
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: that game. On the show, he didn't pitch as bad
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: as maybe it looks, though he had six strikeouts two walks.
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is a difficult offense to face as well on
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: the road. Prior to three starts and actually well. Actually,
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: prior to that start, he'd allowed more than two and
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: runs only once over the entire season, So Bradley is
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: generally pitching well this season. He's allowed way fewer than
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: one hit per inning. His walk rate is definitely too high,
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: though the walks of the main concern with him. He's
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: got to do something about that. And then his strikeout
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: rate is also high, and that was also the case
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: in the month of May after he came back from injury.
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: By the way, he was injured for a little bit.
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: He missed like two weeks, and then he came back
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: and made two starts, one good, one bad against the
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: White Sox. He does not have good numbers though, twenty
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: nine at bats four fourteen average, allowed eleven to fifty
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: eight oh ps, four to three strikeout Walker Isham. What
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: I will say, though, is he's pitching way better this
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: year than he was in the past when he accumulated
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: these numbers, So you might have to not weigh those
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers that heavily because again, it's a small sample
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: and it didn't happen this year, and he's pretty clearly
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: pitching better this year, at least so far. So I
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: don't know what I would want to do with this game.
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: It's a stay away from me. I mean, I can't
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: back Eric Fetti, dude, even though I think the money
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: is oh no, the money is indicating against it. Yeah,
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: White Sox have fifty one percent of the tickets. The
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: public still is going for the White Sox, maybe thinking like, hey,
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: this White Sox team can't possibly get swept here, right,
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: seventy percent of the cash though on Minnesota. Minnesota's favored
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: at minus one fifty or so Minnesota. Is that heavily
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: favored for a reason, Dude, The oddsmakers are telling you
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: that the White Sox don't set up that well in
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: this game, even though they have the better record. Eric
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: Fetti getting disrespected in the market here. But again, the
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers actually do favor Fetti in the specific matchup here.
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: So again it's it's a game that's kind of all
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: over the place. In my mind, I want nothing to
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: do with it. The money's also coming in on the over.
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: There's definitely an argument to be made for the over here.
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: I mean, you got bad bullpens. The totals at eight
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: and a half, so you could get it over a
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: number that's still below that key number and nine. There
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: you get two bad bullpens. You get Fetti, who's at
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: least atrocious on the road and in horrible form right now.
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: Bradley has bad matchup numbers, So I think there are
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: more indicators starts an over there. I guess maybe if
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: I had to make a play on that game, maybe
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: I would do that and go over. But yeah, that's
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: a game I don't want anything to do with Mets
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: at Seattle. I mean, most of these games don't want
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: nothing to do with. Seattle is on the verge of
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: a sweep as well, And like I said, they played
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: Detroit next, so I don't know if that's really a
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: look ahead or not. Generally it would be because Detroit's
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: been good over the past few years, but not this year.
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: So I don't know, but it's probably pretty easy to
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: overlook the Mets when you've already beaten them two out
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: of three games. Here, finally, the American League actually does
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: something against the National League with Seattle. Seattle's really hot
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: right now. They've won whatever this is, eight games in
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: a row or something. I don't know if I really
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: want to step in front of that here. They are
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: the better team obviously, but the pitching matchup, it's a
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: decent pitching matchup. Both teams have a pretty good starter
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: going in this game. Mariners only used two relief pitchers yesterday.
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: Their bullpen is pretty solid. Mets bullpen has been pretty
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: good as well, these three guys out of their bullpen.
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: I like Seattle's bullpen a bit better. Even though the
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: Mets are ranked eighth here in whip, Seattle is fourteenth,
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: But Seattle, their whip isn't that much worse, and their
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: ERA is one of the best in baseball, I think
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: second best, so you could definitely make the argument Seattle's
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: got the better bullpen and they're a little bit more
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: rested here. Seattle's been good offensively recently. They're all the
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: way up to tenth on the season, so they're significantly
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: better than the Mets. We are still dead last thirtieth.
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: The Mets are going with Freddy Peralta. He's a pretty
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: good pitcher, a three point five to five VRA. This year,
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: his whip is getting a little high though one point three.
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: He has some walk issues typically, but he's usually a
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: pretty good pitcher. He's been a little bit better on
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: the road this year three point one three ERA, and
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: of course this is a pitcher friendly environment here in Seattle,
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: so I don't really think Paralta is gonna pitch poorly here.
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: His walk numbers got to go down, though. He's got
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: twelve walks in twenty seven to two thirds innings in
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: the month of May, even though already had that in
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: the month of May, even though the Mets won four
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: of his five outings, he had too many walks, dude.
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: He did have twenty six strikeouts twenty eight hits a
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: lot wasn't really that great either. Looking at his season numbers,
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: his hit rate is a bit lower than that, so
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: that's good. His walk rate is clearly too high, and
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: his strikeout rate is pretty good, more than one per inning.
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: So again, his main issue is the walks. That's the
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: way that it is. He's been around for so long
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: we know pretty much exactly who he is. He did
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: fail to go five innings last time out against the Marlins,
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: but remember that was a second straight game where he
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: had to face the Marlins, so the Marlins might have
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: made some adjustments to the previous game. Even he wasn't
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: great in the previous game, but he was better in
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: that game than the second game. So both Peralta and
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: Max Meyer that set up, they both pitched worse in
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: the second game. Peralta has been really good against Seattle
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: in his career. In forty seven at bats one forty
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: nine average, allowed four to eighty six o ps, nineteen
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: to five strikeout walk ratio. So the indicators to me,
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: I think are pretty much indicative that he should pitch
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: well here. I think there are more indicators that are
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: telling you that than otherwise. Seattle's going with George Kirby.
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty good three point seven to seventy ra,
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: one point two to whip. He's been a little bit
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: worse at home. It's weird seeing a bunch of Seattle
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: pitchers pitching worse at home, which almost never happens. Four
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: point one to five homey RA. Kirby hasn't been that
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: good over his last few starts. Man A couple of
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: them came at home too. Didn't pitch well in the
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: stadium against San Diego, was okay on the road against
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: Kansas City, came back home and was a bit questionable
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: against Arizona. You look at his overall numbers in May,
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: twenty five to six strike out walk race just pretty good,
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: so his command was there. But a four point nine
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: to seventy array wasn't great, and thirty three hits in
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: twenty nine innings wasn't that great either, So there are
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: some issues right now, but overall his numbers are pretty good,
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: fewer than one hit per inning. His strikeout rates not
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: very high though he induces a lot of ground balls,
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: and he's got a decent walk rate. It's not too
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: high really. Numbers against the Mets are okay. In fifty
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: three at bats to sixty four average allowed OPPS is
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: a little bit high though eight thirty seven. He's allowed
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: three home runs to them, to Bishet, Semi and Viento,
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: So two of those guys, at least two of those
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: guys are in the American League, so he's familiar with them.
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: We're they're familiar with him. So it looks like the
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers do go to Freddy Peralta here. So you know,
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: if you want to look towards the Mets here, there's
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: an argument to be had for it. I mean, back
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: in Paralta, is you know, not something that I would
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: be that afraid to do. Although we see fifty to
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: fifty on the tickets and fifty four percent of the
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: cash on Seattle, that makes no sense to me, like
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: why would the public be on the Mets here. Seattle's
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: been on fire recently and they have the better record.
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: To me, there's no way the public is playing the
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: Mets here. There's is no way. Seattle's around minus one
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: forty something here on the money line total is low
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: at seven and a half, so you're looking at probably
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: a low scoring game here, as the osmakers are telling
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: you it's it's about to drop back down to seven.
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: I believe I could see some arguments for both. Starting
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: pictures are pretty good. Both bullpens are pretty good. I
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: wouldn't really disagree with an under but I think, yeah,
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: there's I think there are better arguments for the Mets here.
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: Really maybe Mets first five because Seattle's bullpen I think
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: is a little bit better. It sets up a little
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: bit better with the rest and whatever. So first five,
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: with Peralta having the better matchup numbers and the Mets
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: try to what a sweep, makes some sense to me,
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: you'll probably get them as an underdog. So Mets first five,
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: I think is maybe the way that I would recommend
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: playing that if I was gonna play that game, which
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: I am not. Uh, San Diego at Philadelphia. These teams
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: continue their series tomorrow. They've only played one game so
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: far in the series. Philadelphia won the game three to
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: two yesterday. These teams still have they're really struggling to hit. Dude,
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: like that matchup yesterday looked like it could have been
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: potentially conducive to an over That is not what happened
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: at all. Nolo was able to pitch well in the avoid.
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: In the he was able to avoid the fade the
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: baby spot, and Vasquez continues to pitch decently. H Philadelphia
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: used four relief pitchers yesterday. San Diego used four as well.
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: They did not use Mason Miller though, because it was
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: not a save situation. San Diego is sixth in bullpen,
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: but their era is one of the best. Think they're
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: third in era right now, behind Atlanta and Seattle. They're
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: a really good bullpen. Philadelphia's bullpen has been decent their twelve,
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: but San Diego does have the better bullpen here. Offensively,
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: both teams have been struggling big time. Twenty eighth for
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: the Phillies, twenty ninth for the Padres. That is pretty ridiculous.
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: Both these offenses you would think should turn it around
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: to some extent, especially Phillies, but whatever. Then we look
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: at the starting pitching matchup here, it looks like a
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: major mismatch in favor of Philadelphia. Here Walker Bueller is
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: pitching for San Diego. He's not great. Four point eight
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: to eighty RA, one point three to two whip. He
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: hasn't really been good since he came back from surgery.
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: He's been really bad on the road eight point zero
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: four Roady ra and his surgery was years ago, by
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: the way, he's been pretty bad since then. But yeah,
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: he's got weak numbers this year. He's really bad on
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: the road over the month of May, didn't go deep
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: into most of his outings. Definitely kind of struggled a bit,
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: although the numbers were I would see more on the
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: mediocre side though, nineteen to six strike out walker ratio,
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: twenty three hits a lout in twenty six to two
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: thirds innings, four point three to nine ERA over that span.
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: Numbers over the course of the season really aren't that terrible,
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: fewer than one hit per inning. His walk rate is
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: too high walker Buehler and his strikeout raised pretty low,
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: So you know, the stuff that he used to have
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: earlier in his career has definitely gone. Against Philadelphia, he
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: has actually done pretty well. Eighty eight at bats, two
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: thirty nine average, a lot, six to ninety six oh ps,
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: fifteen to nine strikeout walk ratio is not very good though,
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: but Bueller has been pretty good against Philadelphia, And in fact,
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: these teams just faced off. As I pointed out, Philadelphia
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: swept San Diego. I'm pretty sure in San Diego, So
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: you got to think San Diego has more motivation in
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: this series, and now they've lost four straight games to Philadelphia.
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: Bueller did not pitch that badly in that game, by
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: the way. It was in San Diego, though he pitches
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: way better in that pitcher friendly ballpark there. But he
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: did hold Philly to two runs and five and a
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: third innings, three hits, no walks, and only two strikeouts.
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: He was decent in that game at least. Though. However,
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: he's gonna be going up against for Sanchez, who is
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: making his cy Young case here. Unfortunate for him, he's
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: in the National League and he's got to go up
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: against Paul Skins and Jacob Mazerowski. But he's got a
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: one point four to seventy r ray and Chase Burns
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: should be in the discussion, man. He's pitching today, by
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: the way, one point four to seventy r ray, one
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: point one two whip for Sanchez. Sanchez has been really good.
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: He's been untouchable at home, basically zero point eighty five homey.
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: Ram I would not want to fade him here right now, man,
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: even though I know I said that about Schlitzler yesterday
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: and he had his worst game of his season. Sanchez, though,
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: I mean, look at what he's doing here, man. He
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: just went the entire month of May not allowing a run,
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: with forty five strikeouts in three walks, twenty five hits,
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: and thirty nine inities. This is ridiculous. Man. He didn't
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: face too many good well, he faced the As in
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh and there, so those are good offenses. Colorado, Cleveland,
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: san Diego not so much so. Yes, he did face
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: San Diego in San Diego in that recent series, and
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: obviously he shut them out for seven innings, nine strikeouts,
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: no walk, six hits. He was really good in that
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: outing as well. Sanchez is pitching at an elite level
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: right now. I wouldn't want to fade him. And he's
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: one of a handful of pitchers in Major league history
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: that went an entire month without allowing a run. Doesn't
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: happen often, man, I think there are only a few
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: pitchers who have done that, and he's now one of them.
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: He's got one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball,
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: He's got a low walk rate, pretty low hit rate
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: as well. Not a lot to dislike about Sanchez here
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: at this point. Previous years have been you know, a
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: little bit concerned about like his walk rate and stuff,
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: but that seems like it's not a concern right now either.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: His numbers against San Diego, believe it or not, are
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: pretty bad though, in seventy four at bats three thirty
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: eight average, eight thirty seven ops, sixteen to three strikeout
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: walk ratio is good though, but he just dominated San
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: Diego last time out. So do you really want to like,
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: do you really think he's gonna pitch poorly here? You know,
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: I would say probably not. You know, virtually every start
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: of his is good. He's allowed no more than the
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: touring runs in any start this season except one where
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: he got rocked against the Cubs on the road. Other
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: than that, he's been unhittable pretty much. So do you
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: I would not want to fade him. You know, Philadelphia
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: is getting the money here too. I mean, I think
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: the professional betters are just like, well, yeah, it's Sanchez
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: against Bueller, but of course you have to pay a
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: price for it. You gotta take that price into account.
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia's minus two ten uh or even higher than that,
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: fifty tickets eighty two percent of the cash on Philly
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: to low total by the way seven and a half,
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: so Oddsmaker's factoring in a couple of week of offenses. Year.
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: Sanchez is pitching great, Bueller has good matchup numbers at
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: least here. Could it be another under game? It could.
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: The bullpens are a little bit unused right now. You
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: could go first five under here. Maybe you're looking at
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: three and a half probably on that that seems a
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: little dan inous to me as well. You know, there
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: are just some question marks with both pitchers here. I
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: don't know what I would want to do with this,
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: although the money is saying Philadelphia. I mean, if you
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: go Philadelphia though, you basically have to lay like a
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: run line here and laying a minus one and a
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: half with the home team with a low total like this,
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: I'm just I don't know. I don't want to do that. Yeah,
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: too many things are up in the air in that game.
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: I think Philadelphia should win the game, though, I mean,
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: I guess there's a potential there you could money line
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: parlay them somewhere, but yeah, I mean, I usually don't
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: recommend that. The only the only two types of parlays
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: that I would ever even like recommend at all, even
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: though I hate parlays. I would recommend never doing them.
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: But if you're gonna do them, I would say, like
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: a two leg parlay where you're taking two favorites that
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: are in like a minus two hundred to minus three
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: hundred price range to knock the price down on both
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: of them. But it's still bad because you don't get
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: good enough value on a parlay like that, and there's
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: two independent results, so I still don't really like that.
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: A correlated parlaying, which some books won't even let you
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: do it, but you could do it at two different books,
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: is probably the only parlay that actually might be advantageous
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: when you know that like, oh, this specific team covering
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: is correlated to an under or something like that, like
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: a huge underdog correlated to an under, you know what
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: I mean. But a lot of books, yeah, won't let
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: you do it, but you could play those two bets
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: at two separate books, so it's not at that point
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: it's not a parlay though, you're just making two straight bets,
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: So what am I talking about? But yeah, most books
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: won't let you parlay those though, because they know that
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: that particular type of parlay is like the only advantageous one.
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: My mind is out of it right now. Man, I'm like, wait,
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: parlaying across books? Yeah, no, you can't do that. Amazon
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: Prime has Cleveland and the Yankees here. Oh no, wait,
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: I'm how dare I skip the Red Sox? All right?
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: Hang on Red Sox and Baltimore. The Red Sox lost
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: again yesterday. They were returning home from the road, but
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: it was only a single series tre but I thought
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox had the advantages in that game somewhat.
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: They lost four to two. So the Red Sox are
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: again failing to score at home, even though their last
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: home stand they actually scored a lot and their pitching
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: was bad. But now it looks like it's their hitting
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: that's bad again, So that's great. The Red Sox have
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: a better bullpen than Baltimore does. Both teams use two
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: guys out of the bullpen yesterday. The Red Sox are
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: ranked fourth here in bullpen and they have one of
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: the best bullpen yer Rays I think also the fourth
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: best in that category. Baltimore is not very good. Their
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: twentieth Red Sox hitting has been inferior, though they're twenty fourth,
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: although they had started hitting better, so maybe yesterday's game
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: is a little bit of a fluke, maybe they will
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: put up some more offense here. I don't know. They're
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: facing a pitcher that maybe they should be able to
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: do that against. Today, Baltimore has the tenth ranked offense. Now,
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: if you look at this starting pitching matchup on the surface,
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: this looks like a pretty big advantage to the Red Sox. Here.
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: Chris Bassett is pitching for Baltimore. He sucks a five
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: point oh six ERA, one point five to eight whip. Awful.
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: That whip is terrible. He's been really bad on the
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: road eight point two roadyra So it's looking like, yeah,
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: you should want to fade him here, right, And I
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: was thinking about this being a play for me. This
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: is one of my stronger opinions on the board today,
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: is finding a way to play the Red Sox here.
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: Because Bassett is a bad pitcher, he's bad on the road.
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox should be in a bounce back spot
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: here at home, but the Red Sox have been awful
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: at home. The Red Sox have not hit well at
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: home outside of their most recent home stand. Bassett did
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: pitch Okaine his last game against Toronto. They're a week offense,
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: but so is the Red Sox, but that was at
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: home where Bassett throughout his career he's always been way
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: better at home. His last road start wasn't particularly good
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: at Washington, although it wasn't horrible. This past month, he
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: actually wasn't that bad. Nineteen to six strikeout walker, your
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: twenty six hits and twenty five to third innings four
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: point six two ERA, but his other metrics kind of
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: indicated he was a little bit better than that. And
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: his numbers against the Red Sox they're not quite bad enough. Well,
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man, this is a tough one for
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: me because the Red Sox hit him for contact. They've
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: seen a lot of them. They have one hundred at
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: bats against him, two to eighty batting average against him.
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: That's pretty solid, but they only have a six ninety
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: seven OPS off him, so they have not hit Bassett
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: for power. Although William A. Brao has the home run
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: against him, he's done a lot of damage against him.
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: Kiner Fileifa has done a lot of damage against him,
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: and Yoshida has hit him well as well. So the
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: Red Sox do you have guys that have that have
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: gotten to Bassett. So I still would lean towards fading
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: Bassett here. Plus if you're playing the Red Sox, you've
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: got Peyton Totley here. He's been good two point six
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: one ERA, point nine whip, a little bit worse at
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: home two point nine to one ERA, but pretty either way.
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: Totally struggled a little bit in his last game, but
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: it was against the Braves. They're a really good offense.
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: I still had seven strikeouts and two walks in that outing.
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: Didn't make it five innings, but I think it was
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: really more his pitch count than anything else or the
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: way that that's set up. I think he put guys
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: on base so they took him out, and then the
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: bullpen might have actually allowed those runs. I don't know.
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: I think we had an under in that game, I think,
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: and it went completely Haywire. But whatever. Totally's been good.
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rates more than one per inning. His hit
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: rate is very low, walk rate not bad either. Going
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: up against Baltimore, they basically have never seen him before.
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: Only Blaze Alexander has ever faced him, and he's got
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: two walks against him. One of those are only a bats.
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: He's walked every time, but totally has the unfamiliarity edge. Here.
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: You know, I'm tempted, man, I'm tempted to add this one.
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: I like the Red Sox in this one. Thomas, what's
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: up man? Or is it? How do you pru name twone? Miss?
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: What's up? Man? Why do you think totally will get crushed?
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: He's a good picture and he's facing a team that
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: basically has no experience against him, which is an extra
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: advantage to the young pitcher. You're you're you're just trying
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: to grind my gears here, and you're trying to get
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: me to give out a play on the Red Sox.
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: You know what, let's do it? Well, you can see
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: my play there? Who hold on? I'm gonna add this
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: play though it looks like the Odds logic screen is
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: not working again, that's great the free one hold on?
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: I think this is gonna be a split bet unless
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: we can get the Red Sox money line at a
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: decent price here. But yeah, we'll go. We're gonna go
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: with the Red Sox here. Let me see. Yeah, it
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: looks like it's minus one book has minus one forty eight.
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: Every other book is in the minus one fifties. I'm
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: gonna make it a split bet. I'm gonna do a
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: run line bet here hold on. We'll like calculate this
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: so it looks like the money line is minus one
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: forty eight I actually see out there, which is you
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: could just play the money line if you do find
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: a price. It's like that. But one fifty is usually
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: the cutoff that I have here. Minus one and a
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: half is at plus one thirty five, it looks or
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: plus one forty three actually at that same book, the
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: book with the b that sometimes I can't use. So
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: the split is going to be umm about if you're
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: trying to win one hundred, it's about sixty on the
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: money line part of it. That would be what it is.
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: And then whatever that returns you put the rest of
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: it on. You put the same amount that the money
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: line would return on the rest of the bet. You
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: know what I mean. Uh, So I'm gonna do this.
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: It's gonna be a split bet. So if the Red
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: Sox win by one, the bet will push hold on. Yep,
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: all right, I think I got that right. So let
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: me see my apologies. This is the best bet. Like
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: the only thing that was kind of holding me back
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: was Bassett's ops against. But the more I think about it,
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: Red Sox have a lot of familiarity with him. He
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: blows on the road, he's worse right now, Yeah, let's
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: just do it. So it's gonna be Red Sox minus
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: one and a half at plus one forty three and
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: minus one forty eight. I'm pretty sure that's the split there.
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: So it's a split bet about sixty percent of what
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: you're trying to win on the money line, and then
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: whatever that returns put that same amount on the run
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: line part of it, if that makes sense. So that's
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: what we're doing with that one, all right, Red Sox
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: will be a play there. If we look at the
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: money on that game, I know this show is gonna
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: go long again. I thought I was doing well. It
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: looks like fifty nine percent of tickets and cash on
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox right now, so no real indicator here.
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: The total in that game is nine, which seems ridiculous. Really, nine.
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, I know Bassett is really bound on the road,
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: but nine in a totally game with this Red Sox offense,
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: nine seems ridiculous to me. And wind is not really
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: a factor at Fenway Park, so I don't know, man,
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: it is a more hitter friendly ballpark. Though, but usually
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: that does not influence the total very much. But yeah,
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: whatever red Sox of the play there split bet. She squealed,
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: what's up man, thanks for hanging out. Good to see
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: everybody again. All right, Cleveland and the Yankees. Yankees, you
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: gotta think should be in a bounce back spot, as
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: they just lost the Schlitzler game yesterday. He had a
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: bad game for once Cleveland wound up getting the win
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: nine to four. Should be a bounced back spot here.
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: The Yankees are the better team, but the pitching matchup
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: is much more fifty to fifty than it was yesterday.
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: Let's say Cleveland's got one of their better pitchers on
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: the mound here today going up against a good pitcher
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: for the Yankees too, though, But yesterday it looked like
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: it was a huge mismatch towards the Yankees. They lost,
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: which of course means they'll probably win this time. And
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: that's kind of what I think here. But there might
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: be other ways to look at this game too, because
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: both starting pitchers are good. Yankees return home from the road.
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: By the way, they were returning home from going to
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: KC and the A's, so you know, I talked about
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: that it was a negative spot for the Yankees in
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: the return home spot. A lot of times teams struggle
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: in that spot, especially traveling cross country. So that's what happened.
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: A lot of times when that team does do bad,
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: especially when they the better team, they bounce back pretty
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: well in the next game. So it is a positive
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: spot for the Yankees. In this game. You had Alvarez
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: and low on home runs. Yeah, you know, you know
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: how I feel about home run props. I think they're
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: like lunch money bets because you can't win long term
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: making those bets. Like the osmakers know that, the professor
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: that the they know that the public betters like to
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: just play those because oh my god, I'm getting you know,
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: these odds that look great on these, but obviously the
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: oddsmakers don't give you anywhere near good enough odds, like
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: even the best home run hitter is only gonna hit
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: home run like once every eleven at bats or whatever,
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: and the odds don't reflect that. Yes, well, the Yankee
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: spot is one thing, but yeah, if you look at
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: the match up here, I'm not so sure about it. Yankees,
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: I used four relief pitchers yesterday. Cleveland also used actually
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: Cleveland used five. Cleveland's bullpen, I don't know. I mean,
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: they're hard to figure out. They're okay, they're thirteenth. Their
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: eray is a little bit questionable though, Yankees bullpen is
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: actually ranked below them at fifteenth, although the ear ray
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: is a little bit better. They're two, like I would say,
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: mediocre to above average bullpens here, but they're used up
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: right now, so I don't really love the bullpens here.
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: Yankees have the number two offense. Cleveland's offense is not
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: good at twenty second, so that is obviously an advantage
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: to the Yankees here. Yankees have to go up against
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: Gavin Williams. Though he's pretty good three point oh seventy
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: Ray one point nine Whip a little bit worse on
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: the road. Well, I don't want to say significantly, but yeah,
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: his road numbers are elevated three point eight to nine
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: Roady Ray. He is better at home, so yes, he's
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: in the worst of his home road splits here, but
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: his last road game he dominated Philadelphia. I know Philadelphia
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: hasn't been hitting, though Yankees are a different animal. Williams
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: has been really good though over the month of May,
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: thirty five strikeouts and five walks in thirty three innings.
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: He's been a little bit too hittable though, thirty four
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: hits over that span, so he's changed something because he
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: used to be too walk heavy, but now he's like
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: a little bit too hittable. So I don't know what
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: he changed, but he does seem to be kind of
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: finding some sort of balance here between the two though,
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: which is what you want, which is good. He's allowed
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: way fewer than one hit per inning on the season.
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is a little bit high, but not horrible,
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: and his strikeout rate is high as well. Williams is
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: pretty good overall, man. He's pitched really well in his
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: last three outings two or fewer earned runs allowed in
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: six plus innings in each of them. Numbers against the
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: Yankees though not too good thirty five at bats, eleven strikeouts,
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: six walks, two eighty six average allowed nine oh five ops.
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: So I don't love how Williams matches up here, but
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: some of those numbers were back when he wasn't as
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: good as he is now. Though hasn't faced the Yankees
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: this year, so Williams is a little bit different here now.
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: Cole dominates bad hitting teams. He has good numbers in
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: this matchup. This is his third start back from missing
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: it over an entire season with Tommy John. Cole has
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: a zero ERA so far and a point seven to
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: one whip. He's made one start at home one on
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: the road so far. He's given up no runs, as
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: I just said, six hits in twelve and two thirds
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: innings over those two starts, twelve strikeouts, three walks. He
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: had ten strikeouts in his last outing at Kansas City.
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: Also shut out Tampa Bay the game before that, which
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: is pretty good because they're a pretty good offense. Kansas
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: City not so much. But Cleveland is also not a
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: good offense. Cole's numbers are actually not as good as
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: I thought that they were seventy seven at bats to
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: sixty average, seven to ninety four ops. So he does
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: not dominate Cleveland like you might think, especially with how
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: dominant in his career has been. This is I don't know,
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: it's a little bit of a red flag that he's
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: had a dominant career, but Cleveland has kind of gotten
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: to them. Although when you look at the numbers, it's
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: really just Jose Ramirez doing all the damage there. So
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: if it's one guy that like kills you. You can
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: pitch around him, but overall it's a two sixty average,
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: seven to ninety four ohps, seventeen to eleven strikeout walk ratio.
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: What are you a Yankee fan? Fuck that Yankees suck.
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: Fuck the Yankees. I want them to lose every fucking game.
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: I don't know what's gonna happen in this game, but
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: I mean, on the surface, you this pitching matchup, and
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: it looks like it would be an under, and the
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: money is coming in that way, or it looked like
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: it was, but now maybe it's not eight nine tickets
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: on the under, eighty nine percent of the cash on
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: the under. I don't think the public is playing an
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: under here, though. I don't think they're gonna come in
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: and play an under in a Yankees game, even if
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: it is coal. I still don't think they're gonna do it,
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: especially when the total is low at seven. So the
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: oddsmakers are kind of telling you they think this is
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: gonna be a lower scoring game because they're telling you
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: both these pitchers are solid. So yes, I'm gonna have
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: to ban you. She's squealed. If you're gonna keep promoting
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: the Yankees here, fuck them, fuck you. But I don't know, dude,
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: So I think the actual money is probably hitting the
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: under here. But I just showed you these matchup numbers
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: that each pitcher has. They're not as good as you
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: would think in either direction here, and given that the
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: bullpens are unrested, I think there is a way to
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: go over in this game. If you go full game
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: and you take advantage of those bullpens there, then good,
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: all right, fuck off, you're out, asshole, never come back.
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: I don't give a shit anymore, dude. I was just
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: I'm kind of messing around here. But if you want to, yeah,
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: come back at me like that, get out of my
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: get out of my show man, fuck off. All right,
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: fuck the Yankees too, But anyway, I think I would
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: I would go over in this game. I think if
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: I was gonna do anything, which sounds insane, and I
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: don't like going over in games that have a load
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: to odal like that. Cleveland is getting some of the
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: money there as well, fifty nine percent of tickets, sixty
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: five percent of the cash on Cleveland. If so, do
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: with that information what you want. And the Yankees are
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: a favorite, obviously, they're around minus one fifty something there,
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: So if you go Cleveland, you could go like a
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: run line type of situation. Split that run line, money
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: line whatever. All right, at Kansas City and Cincinnati, I
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: was thinking about this game. Chase Burns is going to
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: pitch here after he did not pitch when we wanted
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: to make the play in Cincinnati a couple of days ago.
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: Burns was sick, but I guess he is now pitching
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: two days later today. These teams have split the series
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: so far, so I believe this is the end of
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: the series. So whoever wins this game wins the series.
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: Kansas City plays in Minnesota tomorrow. Whatever. Cincinnati bounced back
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: with a win yesterday. I believe Cincinnati us four relief
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday Kansas City used three. Neither of these bullpens
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: are good. Kansas City's ranked dead last, although Houston still
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: has the worst era Kansas City still really really a
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: bad bullpen. Cincinnati also quite bad at twenty eighth, so
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: we have two bad bullpens here. Cincinnati has been the
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: better offense, the ranked fourteenth right now, Kansas City twenty seventh. Yeah,
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: I mean I referred to Burns as being up as
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: I basically said he should be in the Cy Young discussion,
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: although I have not heard him being in the Sy
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: Young discussion. But if you look at his numbers, he's
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: like one of the top several pitchers in the National League.
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: Kansas City's going with Stephen Colek here. He's been pretty
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: good three point four to eighty RA, point nine to
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: four whip. He's been significantly worse away from home though,
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: five point zero six roady RA, which might not be
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: good when this is a hitter friendly ballpark here in Cincinnati.
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: Coleck struggled in his last game against Texas. That's not
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: a good sign because that's a really pitcher friendly ballpark
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: and Texas doesn't hit very well, especially at home. But
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: Coleck got a little bit unlucky there because it looks
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: like there were some errors. He wound up giving up
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: four earned runs in five innings, but only had six
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: hits allowed, one walk, five strikeouts, so he wasn't actually
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: bad in that game. Overall. In the season, thirty one
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: innings pitch, he's only made five starts so far. Started
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: in May because I think he was injured at the
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: beginning of the season, had twenty three hits allowed in
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: thirty one innings so far, nineteen strikeouts is not very many,
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: but six walks is also low, so I mean he's
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: kind of a junk pitcher, but he's pretty effective. He's
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: allowed more than three in runs twice in his five starts,
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: though numbers against Cincinnati are good and twenty three at
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: bats not a huge sample here, two seventeen average a
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: low five twenty five ohps nine to three strikeout walk ratio,
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: so his numbers are good against Cincinnati and he is
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: going up against Chase Burns one point nine to sixty
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: ra for him point ninety six whip. He's been a
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: little bit worse at home, but not really significant, and
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: it's a hitter friendly ballpark, so he's allowed two or
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: fewer earned runs and all but one start this entire season,
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: which was a home start against Anaheim. Overall, really good
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: numbers here, well over one strike up per inning, well
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: below one hit a upper inning. Walk rate is a
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: little bit high, so you'd like to see that go down.
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: But in May he had eight walks in thirty to
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: third innings, sixteen hits allowed in thirty three strike scouts.
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: Had a really good May with a one point one
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: to ninety RAUH picked up a win in his last
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: four starts, including starts against Houston m Washington, both at home.
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: Those are two teams that can hit. Though. Yeah, Burns
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: looks good. I handicapped him two days ago, like he
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: was gonna pitch here Kansas City. He's still facing Kansas
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: City here. Kansas City has never faced it before. So
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: I liked how Burns set up two days ago. I
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: still like it here. Although the one question is how
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: is he gonna do if he's off schedule? Now? You
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: know what I mean, Because he was gonna if he
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: was gonna pitch on schedule, he would have pitched two
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: days ago. He was sick. So now he's gonna pitch
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: off schedule, and pitchers their creatures that habit, especially when
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: you're when you're this young and you haven't pitched that
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: much in the Major so far. Being off schedule could
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: throw him off a little bit. But he's good enough
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: that I'm gonna still lean more towards him pitching well here.
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: So I like the first five under in this game.
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: That would be the way that I would go in
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: this one totals eight and a half for the full game.
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: We don't see any person on this yet and Cincinnati's
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: favored by around minus one sixty or so here or
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: in the minus one fifties. But yeah, I think first
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: five under is the way I would play this game.
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: I don't really have an angle otherwise in that game
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: that I think is that great. But I think both
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: starting pitchers might actually do okay there. So that's the
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: way I would lean in that game. Toronto at Atlanta,
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: Atlanta unfortunately won yesterday. We needed Toronto to be winning
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: after five, but they were not. They were down three
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: to two. After it was tied two to two. I
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: believe Goussman gave up a couple early runs and then
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: settled down and Toronto tied the game, but then he
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: gave up one more run. Not happy about it. Atlanta
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: won four to three, and it was in a return
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: home spot. They are the better team. The National League,
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: as we said, has had the upper hand over the
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: American League. That we did get the A's play right
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: yesterday against the National League team. Braves have a good
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: bullpen and it's pretty rested here. They used two guys
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen yesterday, although it was a close game,
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: so they had to use some of their better arms.
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: Toronto used three guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Braves
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: have the number one ranked bullpen, and both whip and
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: ERA the ERA below three right now really good. Toronto's
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: bullpen's been okay at eleventh, but their era's a bit
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: higher than that. Hitting wise, the Braves are number three
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: and Toronto has been way weaker at twenty six, so
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: the Braves do have an advantage in both of those departments.
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: Patrick Korb been pitching for Toronto. You know, I'm still
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: not a fan of him. He does have a three
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: point six to five ERA this year, which just pretty good.
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: One point three to six whip is not great though,
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: that whip is too high. He's been good on the
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: road though. He's been better on the road two point
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: nine to seven road ERA, and he actually pitched pretty
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: well in the month of May for the most part.
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: Twenty to eight strike out walk ratio could be better, though,
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: but it was because the strikeout rate was low. Thirty
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: innings pitch thirty five hits allowed over that span, didn't
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: allow more the three on runs in any outing, although
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: he had some shortened outings there. But he was pitching
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: okay in the month of May. He has a low
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: strikeout rang on the season, a pretty high hit rate though,
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: and his walk rate is somewhat okay. Corbin, I mean
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: he's been mediocre. I would say this year he's not
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: awful right now. His numbers against the Braves are pretty
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: awful though, one hundred and fifty eight at bats because
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: he was on Washington for a while, so the Braves
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: have seen a lot of him. Thirty eight strikeouts fourteen walks,
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: not a great ratio there, three point fifty four average allowed,
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: one thy forty six ops. So his numbers are not
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: good against Atlanta. I think Corbin may be fatable here.
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: Atlanta definitely does have experience against him and they get
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: to him. Grant Holmes is pitching for the Braves. He's
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: been similar to Corbin in a way. The homes definitely
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: has better stuff and is younger than Corbman, but he's
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: got a three point nine to five RRA one point
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: three to three whip, so they both have an era
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: in the threes. With their whip kind of indicate that
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: they're a little worse than that. Holmes has been very
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: similar home and away this year. Last year he was
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: significantly better at home though, where he is here. The
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: Braves have done well in his starts, though they've won
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: eight of his last ten starts. He's allowed three or
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: fewer earned runs in all but one this entire season,
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: so generally he's pitching pretty well, and that one start
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: was at courts Field, by the way, so Holmes has
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: actually pitched pretty well otherwise, except his walk number is concerning,
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: his strike out rates a little low. His hit rate
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: is good, it's low, although he's allowed eleven home runs,
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: which is not good on the course of the season,
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: but his walk rate over the last month and over
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: the course of the season not good, and his hit
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: rate went up over the month of May as well,
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: twenty six hits and twenty four to two thirds innings,
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: eleven walks, twenty eight strikeouts, so his strike out rate
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: was good, but his walk rate and his hit rate
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: both bad over the last month, and his walk rate's
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: been bad over the course of the season, so that
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: is a little bit concerning. But he does get to
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: face a pretty weak Toronto line up here. Twenty six
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: at bats against them. They have not been successful against them,
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: one ninety two average, six to sixty ops, two to
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: three strike out walk ratio though, but I think generally,
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: I would probably lean towards Atlanta here. I think they
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: have the advantage at least to some extent in all
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: three phases of this game, including the starting pitching edge.
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: So I'd probably lean Atlanta here, even though I know
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: they won yesterday, but the money seems to kind of
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: indicate that way. Although they might be a bit of
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: a public side to eighty five percent of tickets eighty
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: eight percent of the cash on Atlanta. Toronto might still
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: be hanging on to some of that perception from winning
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: the American League last year, but they're not as good
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: this year, although they're starting to play a little bit better.
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's around minus one forty something on the money line,
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: I'd lean Atlanta. Thom next game up will be my
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: other play, because now I have two. This was gonna
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: be my initial play, and this is one where we
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: don't even know who Milwaukee's starter is. But I'm gonna
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: give it out anyway as a play, and you guys
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: already probably saw what it was. We're gonna go San
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: Francisco first five. Oh, hold on, already, I thought I
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: had to put in the system. I already have it.
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: San Francisco first five at plus one oh two, and
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: you might be thinking, well, that's crazy plus one oh
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: two because on the full game they're like plus one
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: thirty something. Yeah, the odds makers are telling you that
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: San Francisco has a big matchup edge early in this
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: game with the starting pitching here. Milwaukee might not even
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: have a starting pitcher for this game. Meanwhile, the odds
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: makers are telling you to not trust San Francisco's bullpen,
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: which is what I just said. Their bullpend seems like
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: it's really falling apart, So we might have to move forward.
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: We may have to if we're gonna play unders and
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: Giants games, we may have to be looking at first
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: five instead of full game. Got to adjust, man, I
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: didn't adjust fast enough because that would have gotten us
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: a winner instead of a loser yesterday, and that was
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: the difference between a winning day and a losing day.
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: I'm not happy, but I like San Francisco in this one. Man,
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: they're trying to avoid the sweep. But we're going first
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: five because again I don't like the bullpens, or I
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: don't like San Francisco's bullpen. I mean, Milwaukee is trying
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: to get the sweet peer. I believe this is the
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: end of the series. Oh no, sorry, my mistake. They're
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: playing tomorrow to my mistake. But still, Milwaukee's won both
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: games in the series so far in blowout fashion, sixteen
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: to two and eight to three. But Milwaukee had kind
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: of a big advantage in the first game, and then
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: in the second game, well, actually I had on a
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: Landham route, just didn't pitch well. Then yesterday was a
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: lot closer than the final looked at least that game
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: was like four to I think it was four to
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: three in the going into the bottom of the eighth.
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: Very unfortunate. It was four to one going into the
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: top of the eighth, so looked like the under was
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: gonna hit. I'm not happy about it, But yes, yesterday's
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: game is a little bit closer. I know San Francisco
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: is not good. I know Milwaukee is a significantly better team.
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: We're taking the bullpens out because Milwaukee does have the
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: better bullpen here their ranked tenth. They have a good
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: bullpen ERA as well. Giants are now twenty fifth. ERA
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: is over four. Yeah, they're entering territory where I want
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: nothing to do with that bullpen. Hitting wise, the Giants
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: have improved somehow they're at sixteenth though I know him
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: they're gonna fall back down because that was a lot
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: of that was from that offensive outburst and course field,
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: but they're still sitting at sixteenth there and the Brewers
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: are seventeenth. I think the Brewers are the better offense.
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: But we're looking at the starting pitching here, man, I
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: like pitching over hitting. Logan Webb is pitching for San Francisco,
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: and you might think, well, why would you want him
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: four point eight two ERA one point three to nine whip. Yeah,
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: I know, but he's a veteran. He's still working his
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: way back from injury a little bit here, but at
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: some point he's going to I think, be somewhat back
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: to where he was. And if you look at his career,
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: he's got a three point four to five RAM one
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: point two whip over his career, all with San Francisco.
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: He's a solid pitcher, dude. And while he's not as
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: good on the road, I admit that this year he's
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: actually been better on the road three point six' eight.
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: Road he's better at. Home BUT i don't know what's
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: going on with That San francisco pitcher friendly, park Because
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: webb has actually been better on the. Road but, Hey
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: i'll take it if he's pitching better on the road right.
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: Now he just came back from another injury and so
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: he had a kind of a shorter start Against. Colorado
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: he was inefficient with his, pitches, yeah but he was
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: in course. Field he held him to one run in
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: four and a third, innings three. Hits he did have three,
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: walks a little bit of an issue five, strikeouts but
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: he wasn't that bad in that. Game So, WEB i
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: mean to, me it looks like he's starting to pitch.
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: Better like the whole month Of april was actually pretty
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: good for. Him his numbers are being skewed by a
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: bad start against The yankees to open the season and
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: then that start when he got. Injured the start Against San.
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: Diego something wasn't right with him. There SO i Think
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: web is better than his numbers. Look, obviously if you
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: look at his career, numbers we pretty much know who he.
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: Is and he's not a guy that's gonna like completely
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: lose like velocity or, whatever because he's not a guy
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: that throws that. Hard he's more of a. Nder he
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: goes out, there throws a lot of, innings it just
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: does consistently. Well he's got lower than one strike up per,
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: inning but he's not a huge strikeout, guy fewer than
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: one hit a upper inning at his walk rate is
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: not horrible, here even THOUGH i know his whip is too,
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: high but his overall numbers don't look that bad to.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: Me and here's the key. Here he does well Against.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee he's held him to a two hundred batting average
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: five to sixty eight, ops seventeen to seven strikeout walk
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: ratio is not, great but whatever in seventy at, bats
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: we have a big sample size to work with, here
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: and he's Held milwaukee to some low, numbers and in,
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: fact he did face them twice last. Year he pitched
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: In milwaukee In august and he went six, innings allowed
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: one run in that one on five, hits two, walks five,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: strikeouts had a. Win they won seven to, one so
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: he had a good outing in that. One And San
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: francisco wasn't particularly good last year. Either and he did
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: pitch Against milwaukee at home early in the season last
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: year In april and shut them out for six innings
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: and gave six, hits three, walks six, strikeouts so he
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: pitched well both times Against milwaukee last, year including most
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: recently here In, milwaukee And milwaukee is going with a
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: bullpen game, here it looks like sort. Of it looks
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: like it's gonna because they Have, dude they have way too.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: Many look at their starting pitching, Here, Woodruff, Henderson priest
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: are all on the injured list right. Now. Ridiculous this
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: pitching rotation is gonna be really good when those guys come.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: Back probably good For milwaukee because their pitchers are gonna
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: be going into the playoffs not having pitched the full.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: Season in a lot of, Cases, MILWAUKEE i think they're
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: gonna be going With Coleman crow, here Not Cameron, crowe
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: not the nineties movie director or. Whatever crow's been. Good
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: i'm assuming we're gonna get him in this, game But
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: i'm not entirely. Sure three point, one four point nine
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: to eight. Whip he's got good, numbers but he's not
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: really that talent of a. Pitcher he last pitched on
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: the twenty, ninth SO i think he may be going.
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: Today it looks like it would be his turn if
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: you go back in their, schedule but he only went
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: five innings in two of his three, starts so they
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: held him to fewer than five. Innings he's only been
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: going like seventies sixty pitches in each game, too so
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: he's on kind of a short leash. Here didn't pitch
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: that well last time out Against. HOUSTON i don't think
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: that he's that. Trustworthy and while, Yeah San francisco hasn't
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: seen him, whatever he's a young, guy BUT i don't, know.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: MAN i know his numbers are, okay but he doesn't
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: strike a lot of guys. Out if you look at his.
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: Scouting scouting reports basically have him as like kind of
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: a fill in starter or like a bullpen type of,
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: guy and that's How milwaukee's using. Him, yeah let's do.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: It we'll Take San francisco on the money line in
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: the first five. HERE i just go With web against
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: what's probably gonna be some sort of bullpen esque situation For. Milwaukee.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: Here we don't even see what's going on with the percentages.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: Yet BUT i did tell You milwaukee is around like
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: minus one, Fifty so, yes the oddsmakers are telling You
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: San francisco has a bigger edge in the first five
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: line in the game like, This but that is what we're. Doing,
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: uh there's still a little bit of an underdog. There all,
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: Right i'm gonna take a. Break i'll be, back and
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: then finished out the baseball and then we HAVE wnba
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 2: AND nba to talk. ABOUT. NBA i hope doesn't take too,
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: long but for THE, nba there's kind of a lot
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: to discuss. Here all, RIGHT i will be back in a.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: Second all. Right next game Is Texas Saint, louis which
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: is ON Espn. Unlimited Saint louis lost both games so,
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: far So texas is looking for a sweep. Peer, actually
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: so it's not a good situation For texas in my,
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: opinion because you might overlook your opponent when you're about
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: to sweep. Them texas Place cleveland, next which is a
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: fairly Big American league. Series, cleveland you know they're close
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: to THE i think there's still a top THE Al,
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: central though it's a bad division as far as the
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: bullpens are. Concerned. Here oh, right, SORRY i didn't look
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: at the Bull how DID i skip the bullpens in
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: The milwaukee? Handicap? Sorry San francisco used four relief. Pitchers,
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: well it's BECAUSE i went first. Five milwaukee used, three
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: including their. Closer but still we're Taking San francisco out
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: of that, equation man LIKE i. Said, anyway this Game
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: Saint louis And, Texas Saint louis used four relief pitchers
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: Yesterday texas used, three Although quantrill for one. Pitch obviously
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: he could pitch again. Today texas has the better, bullpen
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: the ranked. Ninth they're a pretty strong. Bullpen Saint louis.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: Nineteenth not as good. Offensively both teams have actually kind
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: of struggled a. Bit Saint louis twenty, First texas twenty.
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: SECOND i did Think Saint louis would come back down
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: to earth at some point. Here, now looking at the starting,
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: pitching though it doesn't exactly look like a pitching, MATCHUP
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: rud really want to Back Saint. Louis. Here texas is
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: going With Mackenzie. Gore he's been pretty good though for
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: them three point nine to SIX, era one point one
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: to Nine. Whip he started to pitch better Again, reese
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: but he's been significantly worse on the road five point
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: eight to one ROAD. Era, however at least in this,
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: matchup this is a pitcher friendly ballpark. Here at the very,
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: Least gore has been better. Recently he had one start
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: where he got. INJURED i don't know what the deal.
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: WAS i think he got hit by a line drive
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: or something at. Coursefield wasn't pitching well in that outing,
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: Anyway but his other three of his last four outings
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: have all been, Good so he is pitching better right.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: Now even though his walk number is still too, high
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: his strike out rate is, high and his hit rate
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: is really. Low so his one issue is the, walks
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: and that remains the case throughout the last month or.
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: So but he has been pitching a little bit better
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: because numbers Against Saint louis or decent as. Well in
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: thirty nine at bats two fifty six, average six to
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: ninety four oh, ps fourteen to three strike out walk.
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: Ratio so even Though gore is bad on the, road
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: this is a pitcher friendly. Park it's an offense that
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: hasn't been doing that, well and he does have good
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers against so SO i kind of lean more
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: Towards gore pitching well, here AND i don't really want
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: to back And ponte for The. Cardinals he's not great
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: four point one to ninety one point three to four.
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: Whip he's way worse at, Home so the home road
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: splits are against both starters here five point five to
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: two home E. Ra pionte not good in his last,
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: outing The cubs knocked him around here in this, stadium
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: although he was good in the previous two starts Against
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: cincinnati And Kansas, city and he's going up Against texas,
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: here who isn't as good of an. Offense pionte does
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: not have a high strike out. Rates hit rate is pretty,
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: good his walk rate is like a little bit. High so, overall,
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: yeah not a good strikeout walk. Ratio man walks too many.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: Guys doesn't have great strikeouts. Stuff But texas only has
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: five hitters who have faced him twenty three at, bats two,
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: strikeouts one, walk one thirty average three eighty four oh.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: Ps pionte has done well Against texas the very. LEAST
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: i think this game kind of reads as a first
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: five under maybe full, game BUT i don't Trust Saint
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: louis's bullpen. Enough the total for the full games around,
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: eight and we have money coming in On Saint, louis
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: by the, way sixty nine percent of tickets eighty four
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash On Saint. Louis they're right around
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: A pickham price at minus won. Ten LIKE i, SAID
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: i think the situation Favored Saint louis because they're trying
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: to avoid the. Sweep texas might start looking ahead To,
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: cleveland but and, well AND i, guess and it could
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: be potentially a close. Game BUT i think if it's
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: a close, Game texas with their bullpen, edge has a
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: decent shot to win the game, Obviously SO i think
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: IF i was gonna go with this, GAME i would
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: go first five under THOUGH i think both starting pitchers
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: and might actually have decent matchups, here even though they're
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: both in their in the negative of their home road splits,
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: though SO i really don't love that. Either but IF
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: i had to figure out something to do in that,
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: GAME i guess that's WHAT i would. Do as at The,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: cubs we got the win with the with The a's
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: yesterday in the first. Five they won the full game as.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: Well after The cubs led one nothing or, early the
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 2: a took the lead before the end of the, fifth
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: and then there were no runs scored after that kind
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: of Surprising cubs run in a return home, spot, Though
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: SO i talk about that when a team returns home
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: from the road and they struggle in that first, game
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: they tend to do better in the next game and bounce.
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: Back so The cubs they're the better team as. Well
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: they're in a positive spot. Here The cubs used two
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers. Yesterday they were a pretty rested bullpen right,
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: now and the better. Bullpen The a's used. Three they're
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: pretty rested, too But cubs have the better. Bullpen they're ranked,
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: seventh The a's are twenty. Second not. Great cubs are
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: ranked tenth offensively now and The a's are. Ninth cubs
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: are tied With baltimore An seattle in, ops BUT i think,
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: YEAH i, MEAN i don't, know it's. TOUGH i think
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: both these offenses are pretty close to each. Other Jeffrey
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: springs is getting the start for The. A's he's been pretty,
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: good especially given the fact that pitching in The a's
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: stadium is really. Bad he still has pretty good numbers
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: on the season four point zero seventy are, right one
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: point one to nine. Whip he's been better on the,
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: road which makes sense because The a's stadium is really
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: hard to pitch. In he's got a three point Six,
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: roady So springs is pretty good on the. Road did
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: well at home in his last down and Against. Seattle
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: he did alright in that. GAME a bunch of runs came,
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: home but a lot of them are, unearned so he
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: actually pitched pretty well there over the course of the.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: Season fairly low strikeout rate, though but also a low hit.
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: Rate he's allowed too many home runs, though twelve home,
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: runs but of course that comes into play way. More
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: that's way more dangerous in The a's stadium than it
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: is on the, road depending on what stadium you're, in of,
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: course and this which stadium. Retired this is A Wrigley,
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: field So Wrigley field is very win dependent, though And
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: springs has too many walks. Though that's those numbers have
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: kind of continued over the past month. Though The a's
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: lost all of his starts In. May but he wasn't
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: really that. Bad his strikeout rate was, okay his walk
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: rate was actually a little bit. Lower his hit rate
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 2: was a little bit higher against The he has not
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: done well, though in twenty five at bats three sixty,
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: average one thy sixty nine. Ops that doesn't look great
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: For springs, here even though he is better on the
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: road seven to three strikeout walk ratio against The. Cobs
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: by the, way he's better on the road but he
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: doesn't pitch particularly well against The. Cubs Colin ray is
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: going for The. Cubs he's not. Great four point SEVENTY,
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: rra one point three to SEVEN. Whip he's been better at, home,
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: though so both pitchers are in the better of their
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: home road split here two point nine to SIXTY r
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: eight at. Homes he's significantly better at home for whatever.
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: Reason his numbers are pretty untrustworthy though he's alloted more
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: than one hit per inning this. Month his walk rate's
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: a bit too, high strike out rate. Low all of
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: that is the case over the course of the season.
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: Too that's just how he. Pitches mediocre mediocre. Pitcher his
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: numbers are not very good against the as twenty four
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: at bats two ninety two, average allowed seven to ninety two,
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: ops three, strikeouts and no, walks Though Brent rooker has
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: done a lot of the, damage has two of the
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: three X race hits a double on a home run.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: There So ray might match up maybe a little bit better.
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 2: Here i'd probably lean to The cubs given that they
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: have the better. Bullpen the pitching matchup looks like a
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: bit of a, wash and the starting in the bullpen
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 2: or excuse, me the situation is also in favor of
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: The cubs. Here i'll lean to The cubs slightly. Here
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: you could also make the argument for an over in this, game,
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: though given the bull sturdy pitchers really don't have great matchup.
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: Numbers But ray his matchup numbers look a little bit
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 2: better to me in this. Matchup but then, again you
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: have to kind of you do still have to take
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: into account current. Form Though cubs are getting the. Money
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: they're around minus one thirty, here which is a reasonable
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: PRICE i think to lay with The cubs seventy percent of,
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: ticket seventy six, percent seventy nine percent of the. Cash
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: excuse me on The. Cubs the totals eight and a half,
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: nine which is indicating that maybe there is like a
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: light wind blowing out here In, wrigley because it's a
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: bit of a higher, total probably higher than it would
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: be if there wasn't. Wind over makes some sense here
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 2: given that you have at least one questionable. Bullpen some
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: questions with both, starters but they are both in the
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: better of their home road. SLITS i don't. KNOW i
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: THINK i would probably Prefer cubs money line over that
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: in that, game but not anything THAT i would really
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: want at. All pittsburgh At, Houston houston took the loss
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 2: yesterday ten to. SIX i Guess Mike burrows did not farewell,
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: again he had a he was bid a. Farewell, NO
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: i don't. Know he did not do well against his
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: former team. Yesterday it looks LIKE i haven't looked at
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: the box score. Though houston they used four relief pitchers.
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: Yesterday pittsburgh all use they used. Three excuse. Me pittsburgh
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: is the sixteenth ranked bullpen of the. Era isn't too,
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: bad but they're a mediocre. Bullpen houston is twenty six
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: and they have the WORST. Ras, Still houston's a bad,
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: bullpen even though they have improved a little. BIT i
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: wouldn't want to trust either bullpen, here though both offenses
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 2: have been. Good pittsburgh is now, fourth tied With Washington houston.
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: Seventh so there are a lot of things that kind
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: of line up towards overs in the. Series but then
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: you look at the starting pitching, matchup AND i don't
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: THINK i would want to go over. Here Paul skeins
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: is pitching for The pirates here two point eight to
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: ninety ra point eighty six. Whip, yeah he's a sy young.
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: Contender we know he is a little bit more questionable
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: on the road, though three point five to One Roadie,
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: ray so he's not as good on the road as
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 2: he is at. Home he's been really good though throughout
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: the course of the. Season he struggled a little bit
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: in a couple of starts over the past, month but
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: his overall numbers are pretty much what you would. Expect
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: very low hit, rate low walk, rate high strikeout. Rate
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: he's not as dominant as he looked for most of
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: the season last, year BUT i think he might still
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: get it. Going he's had a couple of rough outings in,
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: here but he's been pretty dominant. Otherwise and his numbers
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: Against houston are pretty dominant and thirty one at, bats seven,
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: strikeouts three, WALKS oh ninety seven average, allowed FOUR h two.
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: Ops so he's done well Against houston when he's faced.
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: Them Spencer arraghetty is pitching for The. Astros he's got
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: good numbers one point three FOUR, era one point one
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 2: to THREE. Whip he's been really good at, home point
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: eight to nine E. Ra he's pitched really well over the,
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: well Let's i'm gonna dial it back a little bit on,
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: that but he hasn't allowed many runs at all over
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: the month Of. May in, fact over, well really over
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: the course of the entire. Season he's allowed two or
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: fewer earned runs in every. Outing he's allowed one or
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: fewer in all but one, outing which was At cleveland
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: earlier in the. Year houston has won all but one
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: of his, starts which was on the road Against cincinnati
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: and some unearned runs came home and that in that.
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: Start he's been virtually unhittable along a very low amount of.
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: Hits his strikeout rate is, okay although not even at
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: one per, innings so you'd expect his strikeouts to maybe
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: be a little bit higher than. That but his walks
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: are a huge. Problem he's walking more than one guy
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: every two innings and he's just kind of getting away
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: with it right. NOW i know his whip is really
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: good because he's been so, unhittable BUT i you, know
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: there are guys like this that are talented. PICTURES i
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: just don't like seeing it. THOUGH i want that walk
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: rate to be lower than it, is you know WHAT i.
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: Mean even if your hit rate is, low the walks
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: really concerned, me especially WHEN i see In may twenty
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: two to, nineteen strike out walk ratio twenty two to.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: Seventeen excuse, you what the hell is? That three plus
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: walks and all but one of those, starts and all
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: but two on the, season which happened to be one
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: against The, yankees but one of the ones where he
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: didn't was against The. Yankees, yeah. RIDICULOUS i DON'T i
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: don't like the walk number That i'm seeing. Here. Man
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: his numbers Against pittsburgh are not great and only have four.
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 2: Hitters i've ever seen them eleven at, bats but they
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: have had some success against their two seventy three average
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: nine h nine, ops two, strikeouts no. Walks SO i don't, know,
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: MAN i, THINK i, Mean pittsburgh seems to have a
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: bit of an advantage. HERE i Think, Skeens, Well skeens
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: is better than almost, everybody so you probably have an
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: advantage With schiens on the. MOUNT i think you give
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen With pittsburgh as, well probably the somewhat
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: better offense. Too but of course you're paying the. Price
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: if you Want, Skiings you're looking at about minus one
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: sixty on the road with. Skiings money is Hitting houston.
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: Here sixty five percent of tickets seventy five percent of
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: the cash On. Houston so the money is Saying. Houston you,
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: know it's tough game to. GAUGE i don't THINK i
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 2: would really want to want to Play pittsburgh at that.
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: PRICE i think they do have the advantage throughout the.
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: Game the money is also not even backing the, under
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: because WHEN i looked at this, GAME i was thinking
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: a first five under makes some sense here because this
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup looks pretty. GOOD i wouldn't want to deal
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: with The. Bullpens i'm not as concerned With arraghetty's matchup
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: numbers because it's such a small. Sample first five under
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 2: makes some sense to. Me now the full, game the
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: totals eight and we have sixty percent of tickets fifty
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: three percent of the cash on the, Under so the
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: money seems to be kind of indicating over full. Game
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: by the, way The Red sox are getting the money
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: now in that game with the WHERE i gave out
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 2: The Red sox as a play. There, yeah SO i don't.
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: KNOW i, mean, again LIKE i always, say do with
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 2: all this information what you, Want BUT i think a
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: first five under makes the most sense in That Pittsburgh
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 2: houston Game colorado And. Anaheim this series looks like it
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: should be a high scoring, series and it has been pretty.
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 2: Much we've had both games go over the. Total so.
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 2: Far anaheim has lost the first two. Games they're on
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: the version of getting swept. Here So colorado is on
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: the version of a potential sweep, here which means maybe
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: they possibly Overlook anaheim because they do Play milwaukee, next
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: So colorado might overlook it might Overlook anaheim a little bit.
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 2: Here you, Know colorado might be looking ahead to that
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: series Against. Milwaukee SO i think the situation is a
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 2: bit better For anaheim. Here but they have a bad,
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: bullpen one of the. Worst but they're at least rested
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: because they only use And Alde gary, yesterday so they're
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: the bullpen's set up rest wise isn't too bad for.
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: Them but these are both pretty bad. Bullpens colorado used
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: three guys out of the bullpen. YESTERDAY i wouldn't trust either.
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: Bullpen anaheim's ranked twenty, ninth really bad At colorado not
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: much better at twenty. Fourth both offenses have okay rankings,
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 2: Here colorado, Thirteenth Anaheim Actually anaheim not as good at.
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: Twentieth anaheim it's a lot of home, runs but they
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: don't do a whole lot. Else pitching matchup looks like
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 2: it's an advantage To anaheim to, me but both pitchers
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: are in the better of their home road. Slits. Though
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 2: Michael lorenz and his picture Of, colorado he's got really
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: bad numbers seven point two to TWO era one point nine,
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: whip but he's at least better on the road five
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: point h FOUR. Roadira he's been really struggling to Course.
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: FIELD i don't know why The rockies went out and got,
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: him but he's at least been a more serviceable pitcher
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: on the. Road but generally he's got a numbers he struggles,
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: man but a lot of it is in course. Field
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: he's got a low strikeout, rate walk rate is definitely too.
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: High he's lowed double digit home, runs and his hit
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: rate is ridiculously high eighty nine and fifty seven and
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: a third. Innings that's not. Good so he's, very very hit.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: Able none of that is, good but he's in the
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: better of his home road, splits and he actually has
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 2: decent numbers Against anaheim and seventy eight at. Bats they've
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: seen a lot of him because he was With texas
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: for a while two thirty one batting average allowed six
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: eighty seven. OPS i believe he was With. Texas his
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 2: numbers are pretty good here Against, anaheim though generally except
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 2: strike at walk rate not, good or ratio not very
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: good twenty to. Eight But, LORENZO i mean he pitches
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 2: better on the, road and this might be a spot
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: where he does actually do. Okay Walbert urano is pitching
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 2: for The. ANGELS i think he has the much higher.
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: Ceiling he's a pretty talented young, pitcher. Dude he's got
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: a two point four to FOUR, era but his whip
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: is definitely too high one point three to. Eight he's
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 2: been good at home, though one point six to one HOME,
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: era so we have both starters in the of their
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: home road. Splits And uranium has only allowed more than
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: two hour runs once this, season so he's not allowing many.
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: Runs he's been very difficult to. Hit he's allowed fewer
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 2: than one hit per. Inning his walk rate is way too,
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 2: high though his strike gout rate is, decent almost one per.
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: Inning but his walk rate has got to go. Down.
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: Man that's been his one major issue here is the.
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 2: Walks BUT i think he's a talented pitcher. Man he's
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: one of those guys that IF i feel LIKE i
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: say it every, day but if he can get that under,
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: CONTROL i think he's gonna be a pretty strong. Pitcher
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 2: colorado's never faced him, before so that should be a
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 2: little bit of an extra advantage to. Him colorado doesn't
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 2: tend to hit well on the, road So, anaheim you, Know,
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: uranium might actually pitch well here and have a little
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 2: bit of an extra edge against a team that's never
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 2: faced him. Before an offense has never faced him. Before
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: the money's coming in Towards, colorado, though fifty four percent
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: of tickets sixty eight percent of the cash On. Colorado
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 2: it might be because of the, Price like Does anaheim
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 2: with a very unproved, start or should they really be
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: like minus one fifty eight? HERE i don't. KNOW i
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 2: think if it was around minus one, Twenty i'd be
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 2: Considering anaheim as a play. Here BUT i think it's
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 2: really all about the. Price that price is a bit.
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: High even THOUGH i kind of lean Towards anaheim in
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: this game, situation they're trying to avoid the. Sweep their
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 2: bullpen is, worse but it's a little bit more. Rested
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: you could go first five really if you wanted. To With,
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 2: anaheim maybe like a minus half a run or something
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 2: in the first five makes some sense With. Anaheim, HERE
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 2: i think a first five under actually makes sense in
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: this game as. WELL i know it looks like an over,
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: series but part of that is because the bullpens. Suck
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 2: so if you take them out of the, equation full
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 2: game totals eight and a. Half but if you take
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: the bullpen's out of the, equation both starting pitchers look
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: like they have a decent matchup here at, least and
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: they're both in the better of their home road. Splits
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 2: so excuse, ME i think it makes a little bit
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: of sense first five, under But i'm gonna skip that game,
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: obviously and Then anaheim or excuse. A dodgers At arizona
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: ON Mlb network is a late. Game these teams to
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: split the first two games of the. Series of our
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 2: close games for the most of Our dodgers won the
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: game by one last. Night The dodgers use a bunch
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 2: of relief, pitchers though they use, Five arizona used. Three
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: arizona's bullpen might set up a little bit better. Here
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: The dodgers are ranked number two in, Bullpen diamondbacks number,
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: three although THEIR era is still worse than, that but
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: they're the more rested bullpen a little bit. Here dodgers
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: are number one in, Offense arizona a number, Fifteen so
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: could be some offense, here but you, know looking at
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: the starting, pitching maybe, not although the total in this
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: game is pretty. High we're In. Arizona it's a hitter friendly,
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: park but somehow that Means arizona's gonna have to put
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: up runs Against Shohei, otani which is not gonna be
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: easy to. Do he's got a point eight TWO era
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 2: in point eight to two. Whip he's been basically the
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 2: same home and. Away he's been an excellent pitcher since
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 2: they started letting him start. Again he's basically been a
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: full time. Starter he's allowed five total earned runs on the.
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: Season he hasn't allowed more than one earn. Run, no
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: he allowed more than one ear and run once At.
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: Houston he allowed two urn runs than that. One he's
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 2: got an extremely low hit. Rate walk rate is fairly
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 2: low as. Well in the strike out rates fairly, high
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: but he's been almost unhittable. Though he's been really really
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 2: good for the most. Part, arizona, though actually has good
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 2: offensive numbers against. Him in twenty one at bats two
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 2: eighty six average, allowed seven to fifty six oh, Bs
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: so this is one matchup where he might not actually
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 2: have an advantage seven to three strike out walk, ratio
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: it is possible against a decent offense with decent numbers
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: against him in a decent hitting, park it's Possible arizona's
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 2: able to put up some runs against. Him Here Zach
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 2: gallon is pitching For. Arizona he's got a five point
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 2: one SIX, era one point four to seven. Whip obviously
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: those numbers are, bad but he is good at home
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 2: three point zero Nine homie R, race so he's significantly
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: better at. Home he's been all over the place, though
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 2: just his overall. Numbers he's allowed more than one hit
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 2: per inning by quite a, bit which is. Bad double
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: digit home runs allowed this early into the, season not,
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: great walk rate is, okay and his strike cut rate
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: is a lot lower than you would, expect so it
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: looks like his stuff just kind of isn't really. There
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: he did pitch against The dodgers really early in the.
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: Season gave up four and runs of four innings first
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: game of the. Season maybe you, know he was still
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: trying to get his season, underway but maybe not a
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 2: good sign though that he didn't pitch well against The.
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: Dodgers that was on the, road, though and he's been
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 2: really bad on the. Road his numbers against The dodgers
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 2: are just not good in, general though they have a
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 2: ton of experience against, him one hundred and seventy three at,
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 2: bats forty three to twenty strike out walk, ratio two
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 2: seventy seven average, allowed and eight oh one, ops so
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: his numbers don't look to line up that well. Either.
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: HERE i don't Believe otani pitched Against arizona this season. Though,
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 2: yeah So arizona hasn't Seen otani for quite a, while
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 2: SO i actually think it over makes the most sense
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 2: in this. One you have bullpens that are a little bit,
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: unrested even THOUGH i know they're good, bullpens but if
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching kind of struggles a little. Bit although
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 2: it seems weird to say that About, otani AND i,
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 2: KNOW i Know gallon's good at, home SO i don't
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: really want to do, this BUT i still think there
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: are arguments for an over. Here, uh it's around, nine
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 2: so you're right on that key number. There Nine odswigers
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: are telling you something with that, total, though that is
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 2: a high total for An otani, game and the money
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 2: is HITTING la eighty five percent of, tickets ninety four
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash ON, la but minus two hundred
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 2: on the price. THERE i would not want to do. That,
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 2: yeah no thanks on that, one BUT i think in
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 2: over there are some arguments for the over in that.
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 2: One all, right let's go TO. Wnba you know who
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 2: wants to talk about W. Nba everybody WANTS, nba And
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 2: i'm gonna talk about the series to some extent as.
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 2: WELL i have some well you'll, SEE i have some
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 2: trends or some a GOAL i guess. Whatever BUT i don't, know,
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 2: Dude like the professional betters are, like, no you gotta
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 2: call this an. Angle if it, applies you, know to
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 2: a wide, span like an entire, league it's an it's
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: a league wide. ANGLE a trend only applies to one
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 2: team doing, this yeat. Whatever, ANYWAY. Wnba, first we have
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: two games. Here, unfortunately my STRONGEST wnba opinion was correct With,
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 2: vegas so that they didn't cover by that, much but
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: they did. Cover today we Have toronto At New. York
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: both these games AROUND Usa. Network first look at, this
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 2: you're gonna see both teams are five and. Four yet
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: The liberty are laying nine and a half ten points.
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 2: Here SO i think for the recreational, betters if they
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 2: look at this, game why would they lay nine and
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: a half points ten points with a team that has
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 2: the same, Record, Right but The osbiggers are telling You
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 2: New york is the significantly better team. Here they have
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 2: not had a good season so, far but they're finally
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 2: starting to play. Better at least they Beat phoenix. Twice
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 2: at least they're staying at home. Here they do Have
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: indiana up. NEXT i guess it's a potential look ahead,
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 2: here but it's doesn't really look like a terrible spot
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 2: for The liberty. HERE i, mean the record isn't that,
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 2: good SO i think they're gonna be trying to still
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 2: get some wins. Here toronto is coming in off of
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 2: a beating At, seattle which is not a big. Deal
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 2: seattle is a bad. Team toronto one single game road
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 2: trip here To New york before they come back. HOME
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 2: i don't, know a little bit of a weird. SPOT
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 2: i would say these teams haven't played each other. Yet this.
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: Year there's not really a strong situational angle. HERE i
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 2: THINK i would just lay the points because it just
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 2: looks too easy to take the points. Here and it's
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 2: a high total in the one. Seventies so if it's
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: a high scoring, game it's more likely the favorite we'll
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 2: be able to. Cover so do it that information what
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 2: you want Then phoenix In, Seattle, oh ACTUALLY i have
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: a play in this, Game phoenix And. Seattle we have
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 2: A wnba play. Here we're gonna lay the five and
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 2: a half With phoenix. Here it's kind of moving up,
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 2: though towards, six six and a, Half SO i would
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 2: try to find the best number on. That get on
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 2: that you might have to lay a. Six, now unfortunately
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 2: you might be, thinking well why would you do? That
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 2: but when that's the, sentiment that's WHY i want to do.
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 2: It like why is a two and eight team it's
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 2: one and four on the. Road laying points like this
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 2: on the road against the team that has a better
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 2: record three and seven two and three at, Home, Well
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 2: i'll tell. You obviously the oddsmakers are telling You phoenix
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 2: is the better. Team, now this is a cup. GAME
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 2: i think both of the games today might be cup.
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: Games SO i think generally the better, team you, know
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 2: kind of might be, they ALTHOUGH i said differently yesterday
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 2: because like teams that are in, contention like teams that
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 2: have their eyes set on the, championship might not do
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 2: as well in The, cup although we might be able
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 2: to counter that when we go to when we go
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 2: talk about THE nba and The cup and versus what
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 2: we have in the finals matchup. There so, yeah sometimes
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 2: you do see a team that's the lesser team be
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 2: more motivated against a better. Team but in this, case
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 2: WHAT i think you have here is the better team
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 2: is having a really bad. Season you're gonna see them
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 2: show up, here and that Is. Phoenix if you look
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 2: at the scheduling, Here phoenix has had one of the
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 2: most difficult schedules in the league this. Year we had
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 2: to win With phoenix in the first game In Revenge
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 2: Final revenge Against. Vegas they were able to Beat, vegas
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 2: who was one of the best teams in the, league
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 2: on the road by thirty three, points so that's pretty.
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 2: Good and then they were obviously in a letdown spot
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 2: after that and they lost to a pretty Good Golden state.
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 2: Team they had to Play minnesota. Twice they Played New
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 2: york Twice, atlanta so they've played a pretty difficult schedule, here.
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 2: Dude they haven't faced any of the bottom teams in
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 2: the league so, far which are Like, Seattle, connecticut Maybe.
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 2: Washington they haven't faced any of those teams. Yet they
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: did Face. Toronto toronto's maybe more of a mediocre team,
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 2: Though but now they get to Play, seattle which debatably
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 2: is the worst team they faced all seasons so. Far
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 2: seattle might be the second worst team in the league To,
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 2: connecticut so this is gonna be a bit of a
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 2: reprieve For. Phoenix they're also coming off getting aolated By.
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 2: Minnesota they gave up one hundred eleven points in that,
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 2: game SO i think when something like that, happens you're
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 2: gonna want to bounce. Back. MAN i, Mean minnesota was
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 2: looking for revenge against them both times because if you,
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 2: Remember phoenix was the team in Eliminated minnesota from the
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 2: playoffs last year When minnesota was the one. Seed minnesota
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 2: Lost collier and Then phoenix upset. Them colliers not back,
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 2: yet But minnesota obviously is like out for blood Against,
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 2: phoenix And phoenix was in a bad. Spot LIKE i,
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 2: said a return home spot EVEN i THINK i leaned
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 2: To phoenix in that game, still but that did not
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 2: work out that. Way these return home spots are. Difficult
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 2: they got killed in that. Game but, NOW i think
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 2: coming off of a game like, that like when you
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 2: allow one hundred eleven, points that's almost always some sort
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 2: of outlier you dig into. It minnesota shot sixty four
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 2: percent from the field in that game and fifty nine
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 2: percent from. THREE i, mean come, on and didn't miss
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 2: a free. Throw phoenix went to the free throw line way,
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 2: more but they only shot thirty four percent from the
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 2: field thirty seven percent from. Three So minnesota shot so much.
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 2: Better that's just a major. Outlier the field goal percentage
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 2: just in, general Plus minnesota's three point. Percentage there's no
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 2: Way seattle's gonna shoot like that in this game Against,
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 2: phoenix And phoenix should improve on their shooting as, Well
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 2: SO i think that's all. Good i'm not gonna say That.
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 2: MINNESOTA i, Mean i'm not gonna say That minnesota shouldn't
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 2: have won that. Game they should, have but it was
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 2: a misleading blowout score. There SO i Think phoenix is
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 2: in line for a better game, here because usually you're
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: embarrassed when you get blown. Out plus, again that game
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 2: was a misleading. Final and now as far As, seattle
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 2: on the other, hands, YEAH i Know. Seattle what the?
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 2: Hell what the hell was That disney wants me to
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 2: log back? IN i GUESS i don't. KNOW i Think
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 2: i'm already logged. IN i don't. Know, seattle they played
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 2: one of the weakest schedule the schedules this, season. Dude
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: they Played connecticut three, Times washington, Twice toronto Twicereas phoenix
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 2: only played them. Once so, far this has been a soft,
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 2: schedule probably THE i think when you have, years you
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 2: Have phoenix who's faced the most difficult schedule in the
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 2: league so, far Against, seattle who's faced the easiest schedule so.
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 2: Far And, Seattle, yeah they did just get killed By.
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 2: Dallas but they're returning home from a road. Trip they
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 2: went To toronto And dallas and now they're returning home from
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 2: all that. Travel that's pretty far From, seattle and with
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 2: one day, off they're coming back From. Dallas it wasn't
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 2: a long road, trip it was Only saturday Through, monday
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 2: but still a lot of travel. Here whereas For, PHOENIX
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 2: i think the travel is a little bit better. Here
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 2: because they're just going From arizona back out on the
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 2: road To. Seattle both teams did play two days, AGO i.
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 2: Think but, yeah GENERALLY i like. This it's just one
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 2: of these games where it's a misleading spread here where
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 2: the osmakers are telling you the team with the ugly,
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 2: record the worst record is actually the better team and
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 2: their favorite on the. Road nobody's gonna want want to
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 2: lay points like this on the. Road but LIKE i,
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 2: SAID i just showed You phoenix definitely the better. Team
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 2: they've had the way more difficult. Schedule so we're laying
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 2: the points With phoenix in this. Game in THE, wnba
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 2: hopefully we get back on the winning side OF. Wnba
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 2: after we started out five and, oh we're now five and.
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 2: One all, right let's go to THE. NBA. Nba we
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 2: got a lot going on. Here Man knicks At San
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 2: antonio obviously ON Abc game. One Now i'm going With
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 2: Evan abrams At Action network. Here he's given us some
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 2: a lot of angles here that we can look at.
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 2: Here so there's a lot going on. Here so a
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 2: lot of it is series, wide BUT i think it's just.
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 2: Interesting so first he talks about how we have two
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 2: long shots in the finals this. Year and by the,
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 2: way BEFORE i talk about, that WHAT i will also,
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 2: mention BECAUSE i was GONNA i was alluding to, it
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 2: Is spurs And knicks were in The cup. Final The
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 2: knicks beat The spurs in The cup, Finale so maybe
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 2: The cup, isn't you, know a nothing. BURGER i, MEAN
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 2: i think it's. STUPID i think it shouldn't even. Exist
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 2: think it's. DUMB i still think there, are you, know
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 2: situations where teams have just not motivated in The, cup
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 2: Like Oklahoma city got knocked out by The, spurs and
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 2: by the, WAY i think that's why The spurs lost
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 2: to The. Knicks so the first time these teams played
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 2: was in The cup, final The knicks beat The. SPURS
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 2: i THINK i gave that out as a play on the.
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 2: Show by the, way that was a winner here on
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 2: the show way back in the. Day but the REASON
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 2: i did that is because The spurs had just beaten
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 2: OK c and that was a huge win for The
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 2: spurs at the, time SO i thought they were gonna
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 2: be gassed and not have a whole lot left against The.
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 2: Knicks so that's kind of what happened in that. Game
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 2: but by the, way The spurs were winning a lot
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 2: of that. Game The knicks won by, eleven but The
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 2: spurs were winning That cup game in the fourth. Quarter
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 2: The spurs led the majority of that, Game so if
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 2: you want, TO i don't think That cup game should
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 2: matter that. Much And, wemby by the, way didn't even
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 2: start that. Game he came off the bench back when
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 2: The spurs were kind of playing around with his minutes
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 2: and they were messing with his, matchups and avenue come
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 2: off the bench and he was just dominating bench players
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: from the other team about. Whatever so that was a
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 2: game THAT i don't think is that much of an.
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 2: Indicator but The knicks winning by eleven in that game
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 2: was misleading because it was a bad spot for The
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 2: spurs in my, Opinion and The spurs still led that
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 2: game in the fourth quarter before The knicks went on
• 1:36:15
  Speaker 2: a late ridiculous run to win that. Game so do
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 2: with that information what you. Want but it is interesting
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 2: that The cup final is now also THE Nba finals,
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 2: matchup which and last, year by the, way The pacers
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 2: won The, Cup i'm pretty, sure and they wound up
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 2: in the, finals so maybe The cup, is you, know
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: a predictor of. Something but what's interesting. Here all that's interesting,
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 2: alone but the other interesting things. Here So abrams here
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 2: is talking About spurs were sixty six to one to
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 2: win the title starting the. Season they're a long, shot
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 2: and no team that had odds like that prior to
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 2: the season has ever won the. Championship so if they
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 2: win the, championship they're the biggest preseason long shot to
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 2: ever do. It, however on the other, side The knicks
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 2: were twenty two to one going into the playoffs to,
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 2: win and if they were to, win this did be
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 2: the longest pre playoff long shot to ever. Win so
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 2: whichever team wins is going to break some really ridiculous
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 2: historical angle for these long shots, here like neither team
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 2: is supposed to win pretty. Much so THAT'S i thought
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 2: that was a little bit, Crazy so do with that
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 2: what you. Want BUT i think those trends actually kind
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 2: of cancel out a little. Bit but it is kind of.
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 2: Crazy BUT i use that trend in my analysis in
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 2: the final last year to fade The, pacers because The
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 2: pacers were like probably forty something to one going into
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 2: the playoffs to win the. Playoffs The. KNICKS i don't
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 2: think it's really that crazy that The knicks are, here
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 2: THOUGH i don't think it's that crazy that either of
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 2: these teams are here really, well given what the playoff
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 2: field looks. Like once it, started like on The, EAST
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 2: i thought it was either gonna be in The knicks
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 2: or The, celtics whichever team came out of. That in The,
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 2: west YES i did think it was gonna Be Oka
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 2: see Or, denver but you know, WHATEVER i just think
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 2: all of this is. Interesting then we have he talks about.
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 2: Rest The knicks have nine days of rest here where
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 2: The spurs have. Four but at least for The, spurs
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 2: they played On, saturday so there were no games scheduled On.
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 2: Sunday they played On, saturday and they're still rested, here
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 2: so The, SPURS i think that's ACTUALLY i could see
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 2: this going both. Ways we'll start talking About game one
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 2: while we talk about the rest, here because obviously the
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 2: rest is a big. Issue and you, remember The knicks
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 2: were on a big amount of rest similar to this
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 2: going into The cavs. Series and while yes they won
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 2: and covered that, game it was at home and they
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 2: were losing that game To cleveland by twenty two with
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 2: like six minutes. Left, dude SO i think The knicks
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 2: did suffer from a lot of rust from having too much,
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 2: Rest SO i think that is a, negative even though
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 2: you see Here abrams is pointing out that it actually
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 2: isn't the teams with nine more days of rest against
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 2: opponents that have four or. Fewer oklahoma excuse, me As
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 2: San antonio has four, here those teams with that rest,
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 2: advantage like The knicks here are ten and three straight
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 2: up and ten and three against the. Spread, HOWEVER i
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 2: think most of those teams were a, favorite, though and
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 2: The knicks of the underdog, here SO i think that
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 2: you can take that with a little bit of a
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 2: grain of, salt especially the straight up number, there BECAUSE
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 2: i think most of those teams were a favorite and
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 2: at home and going back to THE NBA aba. Merger
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 2: speaking of THE, aba The spurs or AN aba. Team
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 2: if you Watched, semi it reminds me Of semi Pro.
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 2: Man very underrated Movie Jackie, Moon Will ferrell And Woody
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 2: harrelson and it as a Monics Eddie. Monos, anyway good
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 2: movie if you haven't seen. It by the, way it's
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 2: just stupid. Humor it's it's. Underrated it makes me laugh,
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 2: anyway going back to THE aba merger teams in that
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 2: same rest advantage spot or twenty four and thirteen straight
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 2: up in twenty six and eleven against the. Spread, however
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 2: AGAIN i will point OUT i think the majority of
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 2: those teams were the home, favorite, though and he points
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 2: out in a little, while the home favorite has a
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 2: bunch of advantages in these trends. Here so it's, like,
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 2: well which trend do you want to take in this?
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 2: Game because the rest it seems to be an advantage
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 2: based on these. Trends BUT i, actually you, KNOW i
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 2: keep saying THAT i don't think that it. IS i
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 2: think that if you have too much, rest like The
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 2: knicks might have, HERE i think it's a, problem you,
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 2: know because like your offense can be out of. Rhythm
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 2: where's The. SPURS i know The spurs are coming up
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 2: beating okay, see so it could be kind of a let.
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 2: Down that was a tough seven game. Series, man beating
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 2: Okay see is no, Joke so The spurs might have
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a hangover effect. There SO i
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 2: don't want to play the side in this game either.
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 2: Way but you, KNOW i tend to fade the team
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: that has that extra rest BECAUSE i think it develops
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 2: rust and we saw that happen with The knicks coming
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 2: into That cavs. Series it did, happen but once they
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 2: got their, bearings they played. Well but perhaps another reason
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 2: to like The spurs, though is The spurs are way
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 2: more battled tested throughout the. Playoffs. Dude they Beat minnesota
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 2: and okc and both of those teams are better than
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 2: all of The knicks opponents in the, playoffs especially on
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 2: the defensive. Side The knicks Beat, Atlanta philadelphia and The,
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 2: Calves So minnesota And okasee are both totally different animals
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 2: than those three teams are both way better. Defensively so
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 2: The spurs have definitely faced a more difficult path to get,
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 2: here and a lot of times that tends to be
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 2: an advantage to that. Team it's battle. Tested as long
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 2: as they can get over that like hangover, spot they
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 2: can play. Better, however you gotta worry about the spurs youth,
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 2: here So i'm handicapping the series and game one all at. Once.
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 2: Here spurs have a ton of. Youth we know, that
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 2: like three of their starters are twenty two or. Younger
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 2: you know which Is, Wemby castle And harper so, yeah
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 2: that might be a little bit of an. ISSUE i,
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 2: know like The spurs don't really have that. Experience they
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 2: didn't even make the playoffs last year and now they're
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 2: in the. Finals SO i keep SAYING i worry about,
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 2: this worry about the experience being a disadvantage for, them
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 2: the lack of experience in this. SERIES i worry about
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 2: that for, sure because The knicks have more playoff experience.
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 2: Here they have more experienced. Guys Karl Anthony towns was
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 2: On minnesota for a bunch of. Years he's been on
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 2: The knicks for a few. Years he's been in the
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 2: playoffs all these. YEARS a lot of these guys have
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 2: been in the playoffs all these, years you know WHAT i.
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 2: Mean so The knicks do have an experience edge, here
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 2: so that has to be taken into account. Here no.
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 2: So Evan, abrams by the, way does point out that
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 2: those teams with the rest advantage usually are at. Home
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 2: since two thousand and, two only three teams of that
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 2: rest advantage were road, teams which were The sixers in
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty three Against. BOSTON i was at that. Game
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 2: i'm pretty sure. THIS i believe The celtics lost that.
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 2: Game and the twenty Seventeen calves In. BOSTON i was
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 2: not at that. GAME i don't remember won that, game
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 2: and twenty Thirteen spurs At, miami all three of them
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 2: actually won out and cover the. Spread so that so
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 2: that kind of counters WHAT i just said WHERE i, said,
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 2: well these teams in this extra rest advantage, here they're
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 2: all at home. Basically But Evan abrams is pointing out
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 2: that the three road teams in that situation since two
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 2: thousand and two all won the game. Outright but let's
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 2: think about that a little bit. Though The, CELTICS i,
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 2: mean you know that that was the kind of the
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 2: whatever you want to call, it like The Joe miszoula,
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 2: factor was that New doka back, THEN i. Forget but
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 2: The celtics have had all these problems winning these games
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 2: as big favorites at, home SO i don't really put
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 2: that much weight into That sixers game, there and The
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 2: celtics blew that. Game at the end of the. GAME
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 2: i was at that. Game that game sucked like it
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 2: WAS i don't, KNOW i think it Was tatum maybe had.
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 2: This it was Either tatum Or brown had a horrible
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 2: turnover at the end of that, game which which was
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 2: what ended the game there when they had a chance
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 2: to win the. GAME i don't. KNOW i don't remember
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 2: exactly what. HAPPENED i think the twenty Seventeen cavs might
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 2: have been That Lebron calves championship. Season AM i right about?
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 2: THAT i think it probably, was SO i don't. KNOW
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 2: i think The calves might have had something going on.
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 2: There The celtics were an inexperienced team that, year, man
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 2: so you, KNOW i don't put MUCH i don't think
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 2: that that has that much bearing in this game. Either
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 2: and THEN i don't really remember what the situation was
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 2: with The spurs against My That miami team was one
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 2: of Those lebron, teams, though AND i Think miami wound
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 2: up winning the championship that. Year AM i right about?
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 2: THAT i would have to go back and, Look BUT
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 2: i don't. KNOW i don't know how much weight to
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 2: put into any of those. Games AND i think the
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 2: first two don't matter as. MUCH i Know i'm spending
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 2: a lot of time on THE, nba but it is
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 2: THE Nba finals here and in the finals as a.
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 2: Series abrams points, out since nineteen ninety teams Entering game
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 2: one with this type of rest have gone four and
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 2: one straight up and against the. Spread wait wait WHAT i? Thought?
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 2: Oh oh, sorry, Sorry so all those stats THAT i
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 2: pointed out prior to this were in second round of
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 2: the playoffs or. Later that's why it was that bigger
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 2: of a, samples as it wasn't finals. Only but then he's,
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 2: saying if you isolate that to just the, finals those
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 2: teams since nineteen ninety still have done. Well they've gone
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 2: four and one straight, up three to two against the
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 2: spread in game one of the. Finals but, REMEMBER i
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 2: don't think any of those finals teams were an. UNDERDOG
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 2: i don't like these teams that he was talking about.
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 2: Here oh, no one of them. Was it Was spurs In.
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 2: Miami that was a finals game. One so those games
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 2: that he talked about were the underdog won and. Covered
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 2: one of those was actually in the. Finals that Was
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 2: spurs In miami in twenty. Thirteen, interesting so, yeah but even, so,
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 2: yeah the other two games were in the first round
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 2: of the PLAYOFFS i, think or one of the earlier
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 2: rounds or no he said that they. Weren't they were
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 2: second round or later. Whatever they might have. Been second.
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 2: Round then all, Right he then goes on to say
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 2: the only loss of those teams In game, one the
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 2: only straight up loss of a team with that rest,
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 2: advantage was the two thousand and One, lakers who lost
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 2: By philadelphia even though they were a massive. Favorite The, Lakers,
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 2: yeah they still wound up winning that. Series. Though i'm
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 2: pretty SURE i remember. That that Was lakers with Like,
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 2: KOBE i Think shack maybe, Whatever and then that was
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 2: BEFORE i think that was before the season where those
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 2: guys hated each other and whatever and they got upset
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 2: in whatever finals that. Was that Was philadelphia With Alan.
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 2: Iverson i'm pretty Sure i'm old, MAN i vaguely remember,
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 2: that BUT i was rooting against The, lakers, obviously SO
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 2: i was not. Happy does it translate to a, championship he,
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 2: says since the merger eight teams of Enter game one
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 2: of the finals with that, advantage five of the eight
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 2: won the, title which were the twenty twenty Three. Nuggets
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 2: but of course The nuggets that was against The. Heat
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 2: after The heat upset The. Celtics The nuggets were clearly
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 2: just a way better team that. YEAR i was just
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 2: a complete. MISMATCH i don't know how much weight to
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 2: put into. That the two thousand and One. Lakers LIKE
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 2: i just mentioned that The lakers won that series ninety Six,
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 2: bulls which, was you, know one of Those Michael jordan,
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 2: teams eighty Two lakers and seventy Eight. Bullets the teams that,
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 2: won or excuse, me the teams that lost the finals
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 2: despite having that rest edge were the twenty Thirteen. Spurs
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 2: LIKE i, said they lost twenty thirteen to The heat
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 2: that was against That Lebron heat team, though the ninety
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 2: Eight jazz who lost to A Michael Jordan bulls. Team
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 2: so those two teams lost to these elite dynasty. Teams,
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 2: Man so this does make it seem like the team
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 2: with the rest edge does have a huge advantage in
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 2: the series because the teams that lost with that rest
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 2: edge they lost to like an elite. Team and and
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 2: then the eighty Nine lakers lost to who did they
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 2: lose to that? WAS i don't even remember who that
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 2: was that they would have lost to that. Year i'd
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 2: have to go back and. Look San antonio finds itself
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 2: on the opposite of another. TREND i, KNOW i Apologize
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 2: i'm taking this, long but hopefully you guys are. Interested
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 2: this is a bunch of interesting stop. Here thanks To
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 2: Evan abrams for all. This spurs are just the third
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 2: team since the merger to Win game seven of the
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 2: conference finals on the road and then be a favorite
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 2: In game one of the. Playoffs the last two teams
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 2: that fit that profile were the twenty Eighteen, warriors which
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 2: that was Against Cleveland i'm pretty, sure was it, not
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 2: and the two thousand and Two lakers both Won game
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 2: one and eventually won the, championship and both failed to
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 2: Cover game. One BUT i think if The spurs are
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 2: gonna Win game, one it's highly unlikely they're not gonna cover,
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 2: though because the spread is. Lower so, yeah The warriors
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 2: wound up winning the championship in twenty, Eighteen, YEAH i
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 2: forget who that was, against and then the two thousand
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 2: and Two lakers still won the championship as, Well so
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 2: that's a positive trend for The. Spurs where teams that
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 2: have Won game seven on the, road you probably, THERE i.
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 2: WOULD i would assume they were both, underdogs but maybe not,
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 2: uh or they were all underdogs but then be favored
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 2: In game. One that's been good for those. Teams so
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 2: those teams have Won game one and won the. Championship
• 1:49:13
  Speaker 2: so that's good For San. Antonio the underdog in game
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 2: one has been bad. Historically LIKE i, said all The
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 2: pacers won as a huge underdog last. Year you remember
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 2: that set up a nice play for us In game.
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 2: Two we HAD i think we had three plays in
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 2: that series on The. Thunder it was basically and a.
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 2: SERIES i made a bet on the series two after
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 2: The thunder were down two to one in that. SERIES
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 2: i bet The thunder at a smaller favorite. Price that
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 2: was all. Good we had a really GOOD Nba finals last. Year,
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 2: MAN i think we won three bets on The thunder
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 2: during The finals two just playing them after every loss
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 2: that they. Had we just played them and they won every. Time.
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 2: Anyway game, one, yeah the road team has done badly,
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 2: usually even though The pacers. Won AND i believe if
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 2: it happens, again as he says right, here back to
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 2: that consecutive underdogs in game one of not one since
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 2: two thousand and one Six ers and two thousand and
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 2: Two nets did. It SO i don't really put much
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 2: weighted to that. THOUGH i, mean these are two different,
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 2: years two different. Teams, whatever a dog is not one
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 2: outright In game one in consecutive years at. All, wait
• 1:50:21
  Speaker 2: what underdogs haven't haven't? Covered, sorry that was covering the
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 2: spread and winning straight up has not happened since the,
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 2: merger so that that is a bit of history against
• 1:50:34
  Speaker 2: The knicks. Year BUT i think the trend that matters
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 2: more Is game. ONE Nba finals underdogs are three and
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 2: eighteen straight up in game, one four and seventeen against
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 2: the spread since two thousand and, five five and twenty
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 2: five straight up in nine and twenty one against the
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 2: spread since ninety. Six so home favorites In game one
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 2: of the finals have been very good. Historically so there,
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 2: AGAIN i told you there are trends that are going
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 2: both ways, here which makes this game very different. Goal
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 2: SO i, think as you, Know i'm not gonna have
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 2: a play on this. Game we're gonna hold, off and
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 2: we're gonna wait and then see what happens In game
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 2: one and maybe look for zig zag opportunities and. Whatever
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 2: underdogs In game one who are on six plus days
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 2: rest since the end of the conference finals are one
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 2: in ten straight up and ats dating back to two
• 1:51:19
  Speaker 2: thousand and five two thousand and. Six one outright winner
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 2: was The spurs over The heat in twenty thirteen as
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 2: a five point. Dog uh so that's also really bad
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 2: for THE x and that plays into me saying that
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 2: it's rust, Right so that does say, that right, Underdogs,
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 2: yeah if you're if you're an underdog with too much,
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 2: rest that's what it. Says you're going Into game one
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 2: of the. Finals those teams are one in ten straight
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 2: up and against the, spread with the only covering and
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 2: winning team being The spurs in that twenty thirteen. Game
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 2: so that's, crazy. Dude so that's another indicator towards The. Spurs,
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 2: yeah and then he talks about The spurs being an
• 1:52:02
  Speaker 2: extreme long shot, here but now they're actually favored to
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 2: win the series because they are the home favorite in
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 2: the series at minus two. Ten. Correct, yeah so they
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 2: would be the long they would be tied for the longest. Odds,
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 2: actually they're currently tied for the longest odds to ever
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 2: make the, finals and they'd break the record for its idle.
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 2: Winner so that's. Crazy but, again if The knicks do,
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 2: IT i think they'd break the record for the pre
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 2: playoff odds to. Win no team with longer than twenty
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 2: eight to one odds have ever, won which was the
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 2: twenty Fifteen. Warriors The MAVs in twenty eleven when they
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 2: beat The Lebron. Heat WHILE i was stroked out and
• 1:52:43
  Speaker 2: in the, HOSPITAL i was rooting against The, heat THOUGH
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 2: i was rooting For, dirk rooting for The MAVs back,
• 1:52:49
  Speaker 2: then even though they're a Mirror addison, team which we don't.
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 2: Like but, yeah The MAVs went on to win that.
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 2: Year as twenty to one preseason, favorites they are twenty
• 1:52:58
  Speaker 2: to one preseason long, SHOT i should, say to win the. Championship.
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 2: Interesting of the previous eleven teams to reach the finals
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 2: that were twenty to one or worse entering the, season
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 2: only three were favorites twenty Fifteen, wars twenty twenty One,
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 2: sons and two thousand and Eight, lakers and Only Golden
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 2: state won out of those three. Teams so it's a
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 2: small sample, size SO i don't know how much weight
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 2: to put into. That the twenty twenty One, sons who
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 2: did they lose to that that was a WEIRD covid affected.
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 2: YEAR i don't EVEN i don't even remember who won that,
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 2: year but, yeah that might have been a little bit
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 2: of that. SERIES i don't even. Know and then The
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 2: knicks are on this crazy. Run they've won eleven games
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 2: in a. Row they're on one of the most crazy stretches.
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 2: Ever they've outscored their opponents by two hundred and sixty
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 2: two total points over that which is nineteen points better
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 2: than any eleven game stretch, ever which was The celtics
• 1:53:56
  Speaker 2: in twenty twenty, four their championship. Season during the latter
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 2: part of the regular, season The celtics did. That no
• 1:54:02
  Speaker 2: team has done that in the playoffs, ever which The
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 2: knicks are doing that right. Now but remember The knicks
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 2: are playing are doing it against The, hawks The, sixers The.
• 1:54:10
  Speaker 2: Calves those are not good defensive, teams, Man and they
• 1:54:13
  Speaker 2: caught The calves after two straight seven game, Series so
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 2: The knicks are, catching you. Know and they caught The
• 1:54:19
  Speaker 2: sixers off of a huge upset of The celtics in
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 2: a seven game. Series so The knicks caught teams in good.
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 2: Spots so The spurs are off of a big upset
• 1:54:28
  Speaker 2: win over the Thunder all that was a more competitive series,
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 2: though among teams that have, yeah outscored the opponents by
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 2: two hundred points over eleven game. Span, yeah The. Knicks
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 2: this is just pointing out that they've had a ridiculous
• 1:54:41
  Speaker 2: field goal percentage fifty three point three. Percent but come, on,
• 1:54:44
  Speaker 2: Man LIKE i, said they were facing really bad defenses
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 2: throughout The Eastern, Conference they're not gonna shoot this well
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 2: this entire series against The, spurs you know WHAT i.
• 1:54:53
  Speaker 2: Mean The spurs are way too good of a defense
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 2: to allow. That SO i don't think The knicks are
• 1:54:58
  Speaker 2: gonna continue shooting like this against a defense like The.
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 2: Spurs knicks have had a great offensive rad, yeah blah
• 1:55:05
  Speaker 2: blah blah. Whatever so, yeah they're setting a bunch of playoff,
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 2: records but that might mean that The knicks might wind
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 2: up being a little bit public because the public loves
• 1:55:14
  Speaker 2: these teams that are explosive. OFFENSIVELY i don't even think
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 2: The knicks are really that explosive, Offensively like they're typically
• 1:55:21
  Speaker 2: more of a slow down defensive. Team so it's really
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 2: really weird that this is. Happening both of these teams
• 1:55:26
  Speaker 2: are more defensive than. Offensive very. Weird and then the
• 1:55:31
  Speaker 2: twenty Seventeen warriors did something somewhat similar but still not
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 2: even really that. Close but, WHATEVER i don't really care
• 1:55:37
  Speaker 2: about that stuff that. Much and then, yes he's pointing
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 2: out THE nba long shots that made the. Finals all
• 1:55:46
  Speaker 2: of those teams enlisted in this grid loss in the.
• 1:55:49
  Speaker 2: Finals pacers came the, closest getting TO us seven games last.
• 1:55:55
  Speaker 2: Year but THE nba might be, changing. Man maybe there's
• 1:55:58
  Speaker 2: more parody of THE nba, now which is why we
• 1:55:59
  Speaker 2: see these long shots. Happening then we have the finals
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 2: favorite Yere spurs are around minus two hundred something to.
• 1:56:06
  Speaker 2: Win this has been good. Historically out of the previous
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 2: thirty two teams that have been favored by this amount
• 1:56:15
  Speaker 2: to win the, series they've gone twenty nine to three
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 2: in the. Finals so that's a good indicator for The
• 1:56:21
  Speaker 2: spurs that being favored of around minus two hundred or
• 1:56:26
  Speaker 2: better in the in the finals results in a. Win
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 2: to that, extent that's pretty. Crazy so those teams win
• 1:56:31
  Speaker 2: at a higher rate than the oddsmakers give. Them the
• 1:56:34
  Speaker 2: only underdogs that pulled the upset were The pistons against The.
• 1:56:37
  Speaker 2: Lakers that was the ONE i was thinking of where
• 1:56:39
  Speaker 2: that was that series where The lakers had this ridiculous
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 2: lineup and it Was Kobe shack. Whatever but they if you,
• 1:56:45
  Speaker 2: remember they hated each other at that, point so the
• 1:56:47
  Speaker 2: team had zero. Chemistry that was a crazy. Year. Man
• 1:56:52
  Speaker 2: then The calves did it in twenty sixteen over The,
• 1:56:54
  Speaker 2: warriors WHICH i think that was that was that The lebron.
• 1:56:58
  Speaker 2: Year then that might have been thet broun yere THAT
• 1:57:00
  Speaker 2: i was thinking of. Then and then now The raptors
• 1:57:03
  Speaker 2: did it over the. Worst The warriors were victim of that.
• 1:57:05
  Speaker 2: Twice very, INTERESTING i. Guess, yeah the market not nearly
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 2: lopsided The Nixons, spurs, Right they played in the finals
• 1:57:14
  Speaker 2: in ninety, nine which was The spurs with a very
• 1:57:17
  Speaker 2: Young Tim. Duncan at the time of The spurs were
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 2: minus nine hundred and they won the series in, five
• 1:57:24
  Speaker 2: but they were a much heavier favorite There now The
• 1:57:29
  Speaker 2: spurs being plus two hundred in the series AGAINST. Okc
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 2: now they are minus two hundred favorite in the. Finals
• 1:57:35
  Speaker 2: that's almost unheard. Of only one team that has been
• 1:57:38
  Speaker 2: an underdog in the conference finals has then been favored
• 1:57:41
  Speaker 2: in the. Finals that was the twenty Twelve thunder and,
• 1:57:44
  Speaker 2: they uh they had upset Uh San, antonio but then
• 1:57:50
  Speaker 2: they lost To miami in the. Finals but that was
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 2: against you, remember that was against The lebron super, team you,
• 1:57:55
  Speaker 2: Know lebron And bosh And, Wade SO i wouldn't really. Blame,
• 1:58:00
  Speaker 2: YEAH i wouldn't really blame you know what WAS i?
• 1:58:05
  Speaker 2: Talking you? Would, YEAH i wouldn't really blame That thunder
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 2: team for losing that. Series plus that was A thunder
• 1:58:11
  Speaker 2: TEAM i. Forget was that one of Those durant? TEAMS
• 1:58:14
  Speaker 2: i can't really, remember BUT i don't. KNOW i think
• 1:58:16
  Speaker 2: they had some chemistry issues. There. Whatever then they talk
• 1:58:20
  Speaker 2: about some of THE mvp. ODDS Wemba wemby is the
• 1:58:24
  Speaker 2: heavy favorite or not heavy, favorite but a minus one
• 1:58:26
  Speaker 2: ninety favorite to win THE mvp. FINALS mvp. Uh this
• 1:58:33
  Speaker 2: talks about The yankee or this talks about, sorry The
• 1:58:36
  Speaker 2: New york teams being on a huge championship. Drought Mike
• 1:58:42
  Speaker 2: brown's playoff, Coaching he's actually been decent in the. Playoffs
• 1:58:45
  Speaker 2: that's or he has actually been good in the, playoffs
• 1:58:48
  Speaker 2: which is. Interesting fifty three different head coaches have a
• 1:58:53
  Speaker 2: coach that many playoff games with that And Mike brown's
• 1:58:57
  Speaker 2: win percentage is second best only To Larry, bird who
• 1:59:02
  Speaker 2: told me to f off while he was. Coaching that
• 1:59:04
  Speaker 2: was when he was Coaching, indiana but he had a
• 1:59:06
  Speaker 2: smaller sample size. THERE i really don't Think brown is
• 1:59:09
  Speaker 2: that good of a, coach, though, MAN i, don't but
• 1:59:12
  Speaker 2: you know, whatever he's an experienced coach at, least but
• 1:59:16
  Speaker 2: he's owned six straight up on the road in game
• 1:59:19
  Speaker 2: one as a head, coach though in the playoffs, apparently
• 1:59:21
  Speaker 2: So brown has not been good in game one straight,
• 1:59:25
  Speaker 2: up although he's good at covering the spread to open a,
• 1:59:28
  Speaker 2: series but he loses all those games, Outright so that
• 1:59:31
  Speaker 2: means he's usually a big. Underdog. Though, YEAH i don't
• 1:59:35
  Speaker 2: know what else to talk about, here but let me.
• 1:59:38
  Speaker 2: See is there anything else here that's? Interesting? Oh? Yeah
• 1:59:42
  Speaker 2: and then The knicks are only the fourth team since
• 1:59:44
  Speaker 2: nineteen ninety to be a favorite in every series in
• 1:59:46
  Speaker 2: the playoffs but then be an underdog in the. Finals
• 1:59:50
  Speaker 2: those other teams were the twenty Sixteen, cavs twenty, two
• 1:59:53
  Speaker 2: twenty twelve excuse Me, heat which where, again that was
• 1:59:56
  Speaker 2: That Lebron heat. Team it kind of seems like they
• 2:00:00
  Speaker 2: shouldn't have even been an underdog in the finals though
• 2:00:02
  Speaker 2: The heat that year they must have been the road
• 2:00:04
  Speaker 2: team or something out SO i don't know about that.
• 2:00:06
  Speaker 2: One and then the two thousand and Eight. Celtics all
• 2:00:09
  Speaker 2: three of those teams won the, Championship so The knicks
• 2:00:13
  Speaker 2: have Good his that's a good historical trend for them
• 2:00:15
  Speaker 2: there that all three teams that were a favorite in
• 2:00:18
  Speaker 2: all three series leading into the finals wound up winning
• 2:00:21
  Speaker 2: the championship when they and there were an underdog in
• 2:00:24
  Speaker 2: the finals as well as WHAT i, mean all three
• 2:00:27
  Speaker 2: of those teams in that situation won the. Finals and,
• 2:00:31
  Speaker 2: yes OBVIOUSLY i remember The celtics doing it against The,
• 2:00:34
  Speaker 2: lakers but it was it was not, easy, man it
• 2:00:38
  Speaker 2: was definitely not. Easy and again beating the or the
• 2:00:43
  Speaker 2: twenty Twelve, heat, like it would have been really difficult
• 2:00:45
  Speaker 2: to beat that twenty Twelve heat. Team so whatever one
• 2:00:53
  Speaker 2: final oddity Favors New, york The knicks enter game won
• 2:00:56
  Speaker 2: with at least eight days of rest and an active
• 2:00:58
  Speaker 2: win stream of eight games are, longer but are. Underdogs
• 2:01:02
  Speaker 2: that applies to three teams ever since the MERGER o Three,
• 2:01:06
  Speaker 2: nets eighty Nine, lakers eighty Two, lakers and then it
• 2:01:12
  Speaker 2: says The spurs in two thousand and, three, though oh
• 2:01:15
  Speaker 2: that was The nets against The. Spurs, OKAY i gotcha
• 2:01:22
  Speaker 2: one of My well what does it? Say it, says,
• 2:01:25
  Speaker 2: yeah an actor with blah blah, Blah, yeah three. Teams
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 2: it says it Favors New, York So i'm guessing that
• 2:01:30
  Speaker 2: all those teams must have. Won he doesn't actually explicitly say,
• 2:01:33
  Speaker 2: That so, Yeah New jersey enter that game rested and still.
• 2:01:38
  Speaker 2: Hot BUT i kind of want to counter that a
• 2:01:40
  Speaker 2: little bit because and they were sizeable, Underdogs SO i
• 2:01:43
  Speaker 2: DON'T i don't know what he's saying. Here if maybe
• 2:01:45
  Speaker 2: those teams just, covered did all three of them win
• 2:01:47
  Speaker 2: game one? OUTRIGHT i don't even, know, man, uh but
• 2:01:50
  Speaker 2: whatever he's, saying that trend favors The knicks. Here but,
• 2:01:55
  Speaker 2: AGAIN i tend to disagree with. THAT i think having
• 2:01:58
  Speaker 2: extra rest and he did point out that extra rest
• 2:02:00
  Speaker 2: is an underdog actually is kind of a negative, Here
• 2:02:03
  Speaker 2: SO i tend to think that having extra rest is
• 2:02:06
  Speaker 2: actually a bad, thing AND i think it disrupts your.
• 2:02:08
  Speaker 2: MOMENTUM i don't think you want to have extra rest
• 2:02:10
  Speaker 2: when you're on this huge wind. STREAK i really, don't
• 2:02:14
  Speaker 2: and especially having to go to kind of an unfamiliar environment,
• 2:02:16
  Speaker 2: HERE i don't like. That plus the fact that The
• 2:02:19
  Speaker 2: spurs will face more of a gauntlet, here AND i
• 2:02:21
  Speaker 2: guess you could kind of make the argument The spurs
• 2:02:23
  Speaker 2: kind of have some experience now because they're getting it
• 2:02:25
  Speaker 2: as they go like they just beat the you, know
• 2:02:28
  Speaker 2: The thunder or the returning. Champs so to, me it
• 2:02:30
  Speaker 2: seems like The, spurs despite their, youth they're just not
• 2:02:33
  Speaker 2: gonna be intimidated by. Anybody and now we can look
• 2:02:36
  Speaker 2: at the season, series BECAUSE i always do. That really,
• 2:02:38
  Speaker 2: briefly this doesn't have The cup game in, there BUT
• 2:02:41
  Speaker 2: i did tell you in when was. THAT i think
• 2:02:43
  Speaker 2: it was earlier In, december it. Was it might have
• 2:02:46
  Speaker 2: been On christmas even or somewhere around. There The knicks
• 2:02:49
  Speaker 2: won The cup Against San. Antonio BUT i told you
• 2:02:52
  Speaker 2: even though The knicks won by double, digits The spurs
• 2:02:54
  Speaker 2: actually had the upper hand for most of that. Game
• 2:02:56
  Speaker 2: we still got to win with The knicks on the
• 2:02:58
  Speaker 2: show in that game because The. SPURS i The spurs
• 2:03:00
  Speaker 2: coming up beating The, thunder but it was not an
• 2:03:04
  Speaker 2: easy win for The, knicks And, wemby LIKE i, said
• 2:03:06
  Speaker 2: didn't even start the. Game so that, GAME i think
• 2:03:08
  Speaker 2: you can kind of throw that out a little bit
• 2:03:10
  Speaker 2: or kind of argue it was a misleading win for
• 2:03:12
  Speaker 2: the Next then we had two other games here where,
• 2:03:15
  Speaker 2: yeah it is a little bit concerning. That the game
• 2:03:17
  Speaker 2: In San ANTONIO u the one game that The spurs.
• 2:03:20
  Speaker 2: Won they only won the game by, Two but if
• 2:03:23
  Speaker 2: you dig into this, Game San, antonio there were some
• 2:03:27
  Speaker 2: weird things going on in this. Game The knicks hit
• 2:03:29
  Speaker 2: twenty two to three pointers in this game and shot
• 2:03:32
  Speaker 2: forty two percent from, three so they were plus twenty
• 2:03:35
  Speaker 2: four from three point range and yet still lost the.
• 2:03:38
  Speaker 2: Game so that's kind of an indicator that's not a
• 2:03:40
  Speaker 2: good indicator for The. Knicks that's kind of an indicator
• 2:03:43
  Speaker 2: that The spurs should have won that game more, easily
• 2:03:46
  Speaker 2: although The knicks did a more field goal attempts in the.
• 2:03:48
  Speaker 2: Game The spurs went to the line a ton in that,
• 2:03:51
  Speaker 2: game but The spurs were kind of dominant in the
• 2:03:53
  Speaker 2: paint in that. Game that can kind of tell you
• 2:03:55
  Speaker 2: that they went to the line a. Lot they had
• 2:03:56
  Speaker 2: a lot of rebounds and did lead for a lot
• 2:04:01
  Speaker 2: of this. Game The spurs overcame a deficit and wound
• 2:04:03
  Speaker 2: up winning that. Game The knicks actually had a lead
• 2:04:06
  Speaker 2: of nineteen points in the game and blew. It they
• 2:04:09
  Speaker 2: were winning the game earlier in the game and had
• 2:04:11
  Speaker 2: a bad second. Half but this does tell you that
• 2:04:13
  Speaker 2: The knicks just kind of had an outlier three point
• 2:04:15
  Speaker 2: percentage year that was kind of the biggest. Outlier they're
• 2:04:18
  Speaker 2: not a good sign that they won that game by
• 2:04:21
  Speaker 2: or that they lost the game despite having a huge
• 2:04:23
  Speaker 2: three point. Edge but the game In New, york we
• 2:04:26
  Speaker 2: know that The knicks played a lot better at. Home
• 2:04:27
  Speaker 2: they Beat San antonio by Twenty is that twenty? Five
• 2:04:31
  Speaker 2: AM i doing that math? Right they beat them by
• 2:04:33
  Speaker 2: a lot at. Home The knicks had the lead throughout this.
• 2:04:36
  Speaker 2: Game both teams weren't really good at the free throw on,
• 2:04:40
  Speaker 2: here but, again The knicks hit a lot of. Threes
• 2:04:43
  Speaker 2: they had again eight more, Threes so in both of these,
• 2:04:46
  Speaker 2: games The knicks were plus twenty four from three point. Range,
• 2:04:49
  Speaker 2: LIKE i, know The knicks are better at shooting threes
• 2:04:52
  Speaker 2: than The spurs, are but do you really think they're
• 2:04:54
  Speaker 2: gonna have a plus twenty four to three point? Edge,
• 2:04:57
  Speaker 2: AGAIN i, mean that's just such an OUTL i know
• 2:05:00
  Speaker 2: they did that, twice but teams usually don't do that
• 2:05:04
  Speaker 2: in THE, nba regardless of you, know whether or not
• 2:05:06
  Speaker 2: a team takes more threes or. Not having that much
• 2:05:08
  Speaker 2: of an edge from three point range is pretty. Ridiculous
• 2:05:11
  Speaker 2: The knicks did have way more field goal attempts in this, game,
• 2:05:14
  Speaker 2: though but some of that was Because San antonio was
• 2:05:16
  Speaker 2: extremely sloppy and they had twenty two. Turnovers and, yes
• 2:05:20
  Speaker 2: The knicks did win the rebound battle in this, Game
• 2:05:23
  Speaker 2: so The, knicks you, KNOW i, mean they definitely should
• 2:05:26
  Speaker 2: have won this, game but it probably wasn't the blowout
• 2:05:28
  Speaker 2: that it looked like on the. SCOREBOARDS i think both
• 2:05:31
  Speaker 2: regular season actually all three times that they met actually
• 2:05:36
  Speaker 2: kind of look worse for The spurs than they actually.
• 2:05:38
  Speaker 2: Were SO i will say that the fact that The
• 2:05:40
  Speaker 2: knicks are two and one against The spurs is a
• 2:05:42
  Speaker 2: little bit. Misleading but, yeah The, spurs they could clean
• 2:05:47
  Speaker 2: up the. Turnovers and again we do have The spurs
• 2:05:49
  Speaker 2: at home, here and The spurs have been excellent at
• 2:05:51
  Speaker 2: home thirty two and. Eight knicks have not been that
• 2:05:54
  Speaker 2: good on the road twenty two and. Nineteen SO i,
• 2:05:58
  Speaker 2: think all that being, SAID i am going to lead
• 2:06:00
  Speaker 2: slightly to The spurs in game one. Here AND i
• 2:06:02
  Speaker 2: think the money is actually agreeing with. That sixty per
• 2:06:06
  Speaker 2: tickets eighty four percent of the cash on The. Spurs
• 2:06:08
  Speaker 2: they're laying four and a half. HERE i THINK i.
• 2:06:10
  Speaker 2: AGREE i THINK i would lean towards laying. It and
• 2:06:12
  Speaker 2: then the money is somewhat indicating towards the, under even
• 2:06:15
  Speaker 2: though the totals around two eighteen and a. Half BUT
• 2:06:17
  Speaker 2: i kind of agree with the under as. Well fifty
• 2:06:20
  Speaker 2: eight percent of, tickets fifty five percent of the cash
• 2:06:22
  Speaker 2: on the, OVER i would kind of throw those regular
• 2:06:25
  Speaker 2: season games, out like this total is actually kind of
• 2:06:28
  Speaker 2: high for a playoff Game game, One like usually game,
• 2:06:32
  Speaker 2: one both teams have a little bit of rest. HERE
• 2:06:34
  Speaker 2: a lot of times the teams will kind of start
• 2:06:36
  Speaker 2: a little bit more, slowly you, know like try to
• 2:06:38
  Speaker 2: feel each other. Out so an under kind of makes
• 2:06:41
  Speaker 2: sense to, me or under first half makes sense to,
• 2:06:43
  Speaker 2: me especially with The. Knicks they might come into this
• 2:06:45
  Speaker 2: game rusty. Offensively both teams on some rest here might
• 2:06:49
  Speaker 2: have that momentum a little bit. Disrupted plus you get
• 2:06:52
  Speaker 2: two good deepfenses. Here these teams are both better on
• 2:06:55
  Speaker 2: deepfense than. Offense so it seems like kind of an
• 2:06:58
  Speaker 2: under ish type of. Game it might be an under
• 2:07:01
  Speaker 2: ish you, know kind of series in a, way because
• 2:07:03
  Speaker 2: that's just kind of what these teams tend to focus more.
• 2:07:06
  Speaker 2: On and LIKE i, said The knicks tend to play
• 2:07:07
  Speaker 2: a slower pace, game AND i think San antonio is
• 2:07:10
  Speaker 2: actually gonna play that way as, Well SO i think
• 2:07:13
  Speaker 2: both the style of PLAY i think is gonna be
• 2:07:15
  Speaker 2: more slow for both these teams as. Well maybe San
• 2:07:18
  Speaker 2: antonio will actually try to Speed New york, up though
• 2:07:21
  Speaker 2: they might try to do that knowing that The knicks
• 2:07:23
  Speaker 2: kind of want to go. Slower maybe San antonio will
• 2:07:25
  Speaker 2: try to throw them off by trying to speed up the.
• 2:07:27
  Speaker 2: GAME i don't, know but, YEAH i, think you, know,
• 2:07:30
  Speaker 2: generally even though we just saw numbers that are kind
• 2:07:32
  Speaker 2: of against, IT i think it does still hurt the.
• 2:07:35
  Speaker 2: Underdog but, GENERALLY i think that having that type of
• 2:07:38
  Speaker 2: momentum eleven wins in a row and then having to
• 2:07:41
  Speaker 2: have nine days, OFF i don't consider that to be a.
• 2:07:43
  Speaker 2: POSITIVE i think it's a. NEGATIVE i think The knicks
• 2:07:46
  Speaker 2: will show up. RUSTY i think if you want to
• 2:07:48
  Speaker 2: Play spurs first, half that probably makes sense, too although
• 2:07:52
  Speaker 2: you might be paying about the same price that you
• 2:07:54
  Speaker 2: are on the full game on that, though so lean
• 2:07:57
  Speaker 2: to The spurs for. Me, YEAH i know The. SPURS
• 2:07:59
  Speaker 2: i don't really want to do it because The spurs
• 2:08:00
  Speaker 2: are coming off a huge series where they Beat okay,
• 2:08:03
  Speaker 2: see but maybe they won't be that hungover from that
• 2:08:06
  Speaker 2: because they do have three days off to, rest which
• 2:08:08
  Speaker 2: is still a pretty decent amount of. Rest that's a
• 2:08:11
  Speaker 2: better amount of. Rest it's more like that's just you,
• 2:08:13
  Speaker 2: know that helps you momentum wise a little bit more
• 2:08:16
  Speaker 2: than having too many days off to disrupt your. Momentum
• 2:08:19
  Speaker 2: LIKE i think it is the case with The. KNICKS
• 2:08:21
  Speaker 2: i think San antonio might just be the right amount of.
• 2:08:24
  Speaker 2: Rested they're in The goldilock zone for the amount of,
• 2:08:26
  Speaker 2: rest you know WHAT i, mean that's possible with San antonio.
• 2:08:29
  Speaker 2: Here BUT i do worry about their youth and lack
• 2:08:31
  Speaker 2: of experience for. Sure but once you beat in the
• 2:08:34
  Speaker 2: thunder it's like you don't have anything else to. Do
• 2:08:36
  Speaker 2: but then, again that worries me too because but it's
• 2:08:38
  Speaker 2: that type of situation where everybody's basically, like whoever wins Thunder,
• 2:08:41
  Speaker 2: spurs that's the de facto, champion you know WHAT i,
• 2:08:44
  Speaker 2: Mean they're gonna win the. CHAMPIONSHIP i worry about. THAT
• 2:08:46
  Speaker 2: i sometimes tend to want to fade that team in this,
• 2:08:49
  Speaker 2: case THOUGH i don't know IF i, do BECAUSE i you,
• 2:08:52
  Speaker 2: KNOW i want to see what happens as the series,
• 2:08:55
  Speaker 2: begins because The knicks have not really been that battle
• 2:08:58
  Speaker 2: tested during the, playoffs you know by the opponents that they.
• 2:09:00
  Speaker 2: Face so let's see what happens slightly for me to San.
• 2:09:04
  Speaker 2: ANTONIO i think IF i was gonna play the, game
• 2:09:06
  Speaker 2: that's probably WHAT i would do is lay it with San.
• 2:09:08
  Speaker 2: Antonio But i'm not gonna get involved in game. One
• 2:09:11
  Speaker 2: that's gonna do. It long, show but not as long as.
• 2:09:13
  Speaker 2: Yesterday three. Players we have a split bet on The Red,
• 2:09:16
  Speaker 2: sox partially on the run, line partially on the money.
• 2:09:18
  Speaker 2: Line if you wanted to go just money, LINE i
• 2:09:21
  Speaker 2: would not really stop. You of COURSE i can't stop,
• 2:09:24
  Speaker 2: you but, Yes San Francisco giants first five money line
• 2:09:30
  Speaker 2: will ride logan web in that game against A milwaukee
• 2:09:33
  Speaker 2: bullpen type of, game and we're gonna lay the points
• 2:09:36
  Speaker 2: in the W nba With. Phoenix get back to THE.
• 2:09:39
  Speaker 2: Wnba that's gonna do. It learn a toad On, twitter
• 2:09:42
  Speaker 2: learn it toe On, instagram like subscribe to the. Channel.
• 2:09:44
  Speaker 2: Here let's get it, going, Baby let's get back on
• 2:09:47
  Speaker 2: the winning. Track. Here listen on, Audio, Apple, Spotify spreaker
• 2:09:51
  Speaker 2: covered in you my ukulele cover. Channel check that, Out,
• 2:09:55
  Speaker 2: patreon dot, Com slash learn to. Toad you can get
• 2:09:57
  Speaker 2: some bonus stuff there and the. Cast we had a
• 2:10:00
  Speaker 2: new episode last night With hindian being the guest last
• 2:10:03
  Speaker 2: night As, eldon one of our hosts is off on
• 2:10:06
  Speaker 2: a boat now as a, fisherman And Tyler yankey was
• 2:10:10
  Speaker 2: nowhere to be. Found so but go check that. Out
• 2:10:12
  Speaker 2: it was a fun. EPISODE i think it was. Funny
• 2:10:14
  Speaker 2: and The giants G spot. Podcast AS i keep mentioning,
• 2:10:18
  Speaker 2: it it will be back at some. Point that's gonna do. It,
• 2:10:21
  Speaker 2: Peace but don't you go, quiet don't you fade from the.
• 2:10:27
  Speaker 1: Floor your name still means something to somebody for. Show
• 2:10:31
  Speaker 1: put the glass, down, baby.
• 2:10:35
  Speaker 2: Look at.
• 2:10:36
  Speaker 1: Me no.
• 2:10:40
  Speaker 2: Hold, on hold On, latin.
• 2:10:48
  Speaker 3: Hold, on hold on and me for.
• 2:10:56
  Speaker 1: That bites but it don't get the. Crown hold, on hold,
• 2:11:07
  Speaker 1: on stay with me, now