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Brad Olsen: Infometrics Principal Economist on the latest employment numbers for September 2024 · The SME Stream

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  Speaker 1: With us now is Brad Awson in the Metrics principal economist, Hey,
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Brad good evening, Well, so the job market's tough, isn't
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  Speaker 1: it It is, and we've continued to get further numbers
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  Speaker 1: that suggest how tough it is. The latest figures for
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  Speaker 1: September showing there are twenty nearly twenty one thousand fewer
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  Speaker 1: jobs in the New Zealand economy in September twenty twenty
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  Speaker 1: four compared to a year ago. You know, that's a
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  Speaker 1: pretty tough hit. And also most about half of those
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  Speaker 1: job losses coming through in Auckland, with around ten five
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  Speaker 1: hundred odd jobs fewer in the largest city than a
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  Speaker 1: year before. Those hits very much coming through. We've seen
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  Speaker 1: now no jobs growth at all since about March this year,
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  Speaker 1: and in fact we've either seen declines or things remaining flat,
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  Speaker 1: so really continuing to add the pressure there when households
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  Speaker 1: are of course trying to find jobs to pay for
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  Speaker 1: life as it goes round, but fewer and fewer job
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  Speaker 1: opportunities coming up. What sectors are being hit? Yeah, the
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  Speaker 1: biggest hit so far in terms of sectors has been construction,
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  Speaker 1: around about just over ten thousand fewer jobs in construction
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  Speaker 1: than a year ago. But then after construction sort of
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  Speaker 1: smattering across the board, around seven thousand fewer jobs and
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  Speaker 1: admin and support services and that includes labor, higher and
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  Speaker 1: temporary roles. You've got six thousand odd fewer roles across
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  Speaker 1: accommodation and food services. Again, we're not traveling as much
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  Speaker 1: across the country and doing domestic travel, and so that's
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  Speaker 1: taken a hit. Manufacturings down around five thousand, professional services
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  Speaker 1: down nearly three thy eight hundred at so in retail
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  Speaker 1: as well. So there's quite a lot of areas that
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  Speaker 1: have very much been hit. Interestingly, and I think encouragingly,
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  Speaker 1: the healthcare sector is the one area that has seen
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  Speaker 1: some pre sustained jobs growth. Over ten thousand more jobs
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  Speaker 1: in healthcare than a year ago, so that area really
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  Speaker 1: holding us up. And so when do we expect to
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: hit five percent unemployment? Well, we'll have the numbers out
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  Speaker 1: next Wednesday, which we expect at the moment will show
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  Speaker 1: that five percent unemployment rate, and we think it will
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  Speaker 1: then continue to increase just a bit more over the
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  Speaker 1: next couple of quarters. We think that the unemployment rate
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  Speaker 1: now is going to peak at around five point four
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  Speaker 1: percent around mid next year, and it's just we're in
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  Speaker 1: the awful period now. Either we're between now and sort
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  Speaker 1: of mid next year. As people are slowly but surely
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  Speaker 1: moving off their higher fixed income mortgages through to those
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  Speaker 1: lower rates, you'll start to get more and more people
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  Speaker 1: that are still going to be losing their jobs until
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  Speaker 1: there is more support, there's more stimulus coming into the economy.
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  Speaker 1: So we're in a very tough, very tricky period for
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  Speaker 1: the economy at the moment. Good stuff, Brad, Thanks so
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: much appreciated. Brad Awsome, Inframetrix Principle Economist,