Latest / Toadstool Sports / Thursday BEST BETS | Ice Cold | NBA & NHL Conference Finals & MLB & WNBA | 5/21/26

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Thursday BEST BETS | Ice Cold | NBA & NHL Conference Finals & MLB & WNBA | 5/21/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm man, a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your checks, the black coffee on the felt man, you
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: look like a mist three teen Parlette turned the dust
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: in your head. Now you stare at the chips like
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: they made you this man. But don't you go quiet.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor. Your name steal means
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: something on somebody for show.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: Put the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: No, hold on, hold on nothing nice now, hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: hold on.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Me, but it don't get the crown. Hold on, hold
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: on and stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 4: Now, what's up, everybody? It's towed back with you with
• 1:30
  Speaker 4: Toadstool Sports.
• 1:31
  Speaker 5: Thursday, May twenty first two and one on the show
• 1:37
  Speaker 5: yesterday pretty easily could have been three and oh. The
• 1:41
  Speaker 5: first game was a loser at the Red Sox Kansas
• 1:44
  Speaker 5: City first five inning under, and it was a loser
• 1:47
  Speaker 5: because it was two to one in the bottom of
• 1:49
  Speaker 5: the fifth and Kansas City hit a two run home run,
• 1:52
  Speaker 5: so we were that hit was what determined that play,
• 1:56
  Speaker 5: and then the full game wound up going under and
• 1:59
  Speaker 5: landing seven. So that really pisses me off when you
• 2:02
  Speaker 5: lose the first five and then the full game on
• 2:06
  Speaker 5: that same particular side hits that is not good.
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: U probably should have been a winner though.
• 2:11
  Speaker 5: I mean, if you avoid that home run, you're probably
• 2:13
  Speaker 5: gonna win the bet. So that pisses me off. We
• 2:18
  Speaker 5: did get the other ones right, uh, Dodger San Diego
• 2:21
  Speaker 5: under under in the first.
• 2:23
  Speaker 4: Five vaz Kez gave up.
• 2:25
  Speaker 5: I think two runs during that span. I think the
• 2:28
  Speaker 5: Dodgers won three to nothing. Either way, it went under.
• 2:31
  Speaker 5: That was under all the way full game whatever. Otani dominated.
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: So that's what happened in that game, and we got
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: the w NBA game right as well.
• 2:42
  Speaker 5: We're now four and oh, probably should be five and
• 2:44
  Speaker 5: oh in the w NBA. My being too selective maybe
• 2:50
  Speaker 5: cost us. I'm still I'm still mad about that that
• 2:52
  Speaker 5: Golden State play that I left off the card way back.
• 2:56
  Speaker 5: I don't know, second or third day of the season,
• 2:59
  Speaker 5: whatever it was, but Connecticut got the win. It was
• 3:02
  Speaker 5: somewhat close, but they were winning most of the game.
• 3:04
  Speaker 5: They wound up winning out right.
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: Move on.
• 3:07
  Speaker 5: Today, we have a small baseball board that I really
• 3:10
  Speaker 5: don't like, and I'm actually skipping it. I'm gonna give
• 3:13
  Speaker 5: out a play in hockey and an NBA. I know
• 3:18
  Speaker 5: baseball has been really, really killing it.
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: So I don't love that.
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: I'm not giving out any baseball, but that's just I
• 3:25
  Speaker 5: don't like it. Let's get into it, man. We have baseball. Obviously,
• 3:29
  Speaker 5: we have some afternoon baseball. A couple of series finishing
• 3:34
  Speaker 5: Cleveland at Detroit. Cleveland is on the verge of potentially
• 3:37
  Speaker 5: a four game sweep pier of Detroit. But you know,
• 3:41
  Speaker 5: I always talk about teams that are trying to avoid
• 3:44
  Speaker 5: the sweep A lot of times will be extra motivated.
• 3:46
  Speaker 5: But Detroit as a team, they look like they've just
• 3:49
  Speaker 5: fallen off a cliff, like they lose schooball and then
• 3:52
  Speaker 5: just the whole season goes in the tank. Even though
• 3:55
  Speaker 5: Detroit has good numbers at home, but most of those
• 3:58
  Speaker 5: were accumulated before that injury.
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: I don't know, but it is still possible.
• 4:02
  Speaker 5: Cleveland overlooks them here looking just at the pitching matchup
• 4:06
  Speaker 5: on the surface, to me, it looks like it favors
• 4:08
  Speaker 5: Detroit Cleveland only.
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: I mean, they played Philadelphia next.
• 4:12
  Speaker 5: I don't know if that's a big deal or not,
• 4:15
  Speaker 5: Like will they be looking ahead to Philly?
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: I don't know. Cleveland used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 4:21
  Speaker 5: Detroit used a bunch because they had a bullpen game,
• 4:26
  Speaker 5: so they used five relief pitchers, so that's not good
• 4:29
  Speaker 5: for Detroit. Detroit's bullpen also hasn't been good. They ranked nineteenth.
• 4:33
  Speaker 5: I ordered this by whip. Cleveland is tenth, although Cleveland's
• 4:37
  Speaker 5: era in the bullpen is pretty similar to Detroit's, though
• 4:42
  Speaker 5: not much lower, so there isn't that much of a
• 4:45
  Speaker 5: gap between these two bullpens. I don't think Detroit's offense
• 4:49
  Speaker 5: is falling off too. They're at twenty third, so it's
• 4:51
  Speaker 5: like the whole team is just playing way worse. Cleveland
• 4:55
  Speaker 5: somehow has the better offense right now at fifteenth arranged
• 4:58
  Speaker 5: by ops.
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: Still don't really think that Cleveland even is.
• 5:02
  Speaker 5: The better offense, but that has been the case so
• 5:04
  Speaker 5: far this season. Joey Cantillo is fitching for Cleveland. Three
• 5:09
  Speaker 5: point four ERA pretty good, one point three to five WHIP.
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: Is not that good, though.
• 5:14
  Speaker 5: He's been a little bit worse on the road three
• 5:16
  Speaker 5: point eight ERA on the road. That's not that bad though,
• 5:19
  Speaker 5: But these walk numbers are really really concerning.
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: This month, he has an eleven eleven strikeout walk ratio. Uh,
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: you know, the what does that make a wish? At
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: eleven eleven.
• 5:32
  Speaker 5: He probably wishes that he's wasn't walking as many people. Cleveland, though,
• 5:36
  Speaker 5: has won all four of those outings of his but
• 5:39
  Speaker 5: he hasn't been that good.
• 5:40
  Speaker 4: I mean, that walk number is clearly way too high.
• 5:43
  Speaker 5: Although he's not allowed more than four earned runs in
• 5:46
  Speaker 5: any outing this season, he's allowed fewer than one hit
• 5:49
  Speaker 5: per innings, so his unhit ability is keeping his numbers
• 5:53
  Speaker 5: down a bit, but his walk number is crazy. He's
• 5:55
  Speaker 5: walking one guy every two winnings. Basically, his strike out
• 5:58
  Speaker 5: rate is a little bit low. Well, I don't think
• 6:00
  Speaker 5: he's that good. His numbers against Detroit are fine and
• 6:04
  Speaker 5: twenty two at bats two twenty seven average, seven oh
• 6:08
  Speaker 5: one ops allowed.
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: That's not bad. So he may still do alright here
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: against the Detroit offense.
• 6:13
  Speaker 5: That's not a good form right now. Casey Mize is
• 6:16
  Speaker 5: going for Detroit. He's had a good season two point
• 6:19
  Speaker 5: four to three ERA, one point zero five WHIP, he's
• 6:22
  Speaker 5: been really good at home one point oh two home
• 6:26
  Speaker 5: e RA, and he got injured at the end of April.
• 6:29
  Speaker 5: Then he came back and he had a six inning
• 6:31
  Speaker 5: shutout against Toronto, which Detroit still lost because they can't
• 6:35
  Speaker 5: score right now. Not his fault whatsoever. That was a
• 6:39
  Speaker 5: really good outing from him. Only allowed two hits, no walks,
• 6:43
  Speaker 5: four strikeouts. His numbers over the course of the season
• 6:46
  Speaker 5: are pretty good, more than one strike up per inning,
• 6:49
  Speaker 5: well below one hit allowed per inning. The walk rate
• 6:51
  Speaker 5: is fairly low as well. He's allowed more than two
• 6:55
  Speaker 5: earned runs only once, so I mean he's the better
• 6:58
  Speaker 5: pitcher over Cantillo. His numbers against Cleveland are somewhat in
• 7:03
  Speaker 5: line with what we saw on the other side here.
• 7:05
  Speaker 5: He's got forty five at bats against him, two forty
• 7:07
  Speaker 5: four batting average seven to twenty ohps. Not great but
• 7:11
  Speaker 5: not terrible. Nine to five strike out walk ratio is
• 7:14
  Speaker 5: too many walks. But I think I like myz over
• 7:19
  Speaker 5: Cantillo here. I think if you do go Detroit, probably
• 7:22
  Speaker 5: first five, because I don't really think they have a
• 7:25
  Speaker 5: bullpen advantage, especially with the usage yesterday. On top of that,
• 7:29
  Speaker 5: Detroit is favored, though, which is kind of telling you something.
• 7:33
  Speaker 5: If Detroit is favored, the odds bakers are telling you
• 7:36
  Speaker 5: they think that they have some advantages in this matchup.
• 7:40
  Speaker 5: You know, maybe just the fact that they're at home
• 7:42
  Speaker 5: is one of them. But yeah, it's the prices around
• 7:46
  Speaker 5: minus one twenty. I think if I went Detroit, though
• 7:49
  Speaker 5: first five inning makes more sense, but the price might
• 7:51
  Speaker 5: be a little bit higher. That's all I really got
• 7:55
  Speaker 5: on that game. I don't really have much. I don't
• 7:58
  Speaker 5: have a good feel for that game. I don't know
• 7:59
  Speaker 5: if good feel for this whole board today. I actually
• 8:03
  Speaker 5: I mostly like overs in these games today. Actually, there
• 8:06
  Speaker 5: are a few games where I was thinking about it over.
• 8:09
  Speaker 5: That's what I got today, pretty much, Dirty sock, what's up?
• 8:13
  Speaker 5: Thanks for hanging out. Pittsburgh at Saint Louis. These teams
• 8:17
  Speaker 5: are finishing a three game series. They split the first two.
• 8:20
  Speaker 5: Saint Louis got shut out seven and nothing yesterday, and
• 8:23
  Speaker 5: I'm kind of surprised Saint Louis won the first game,
• 8:25
  Speaker 5: and you know me, I'm not high at Saint Louis.
• 8:27
  Speaker 5: But I also didn't think they had a pitching edge
• 8:30
  Speaker 5: in that game either. Saint Louis is avoiding Paul Schiens
• 8:34
  Speaker 5: in this series. Though Saint Louis used three relief pitchers yesterday,
• 8:38
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh used four.
• 8:40
  Speaker 4: Neither of these bullpens are great.
• 8:42
  Speaker 5: Saint Louis is ranked twenty fourth, Pittsburgh is twentieth. Pittsburgh's
• 8:47
  Speaker 5: is a little bit better, but the usage was a
• 8:49
  Speaker 5: little bit heavier for them yesterday. Still, probably they have
• 8:52
  Speaker 5: a little bit of a bullpen edge. Pittsburgh tenth in offense,
• 8:55
  Speaker 5: Saint Louis is twelfth. Both teams have hit decently on
• 9:00
  Speaker 5: the surface here. I think Pittsburgh has the better pitcher
• 9:04
  Speaker 5: going here. Braxton Ashcraft. He's been good three point h
• 9:07
  Speaker 5: nine ERA one point zero five whip good on the
• 9:10
  Speaker 5: road as well, two point one six Roady Rauh. This month,
• 9:14
  Speaker 5: he has a seventeen to two strikeout walk ratio, which
• 9:18
  Speaker 5: is really good. He struggled a little bit in his
• 9:20
  Speaker 5: last outing against Philly, but he didn't walk anybody and
• 9:23
  Speaker 5: he had five strikeouts. That's still a pretty decent start
• 9:26
  Speaker 5: from him. So I would say, yeah, he's in good
• 9:28
  Speaker 5: current form pitching well this month. It's been pretty sustained.
• 9:32
  Speaker 5: Actually really only has one actual bad start over the
• 9:35
  Speaker 5: course of the season.
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: But guess who that start was against. Yeah, it was
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: against Saint Louis in Pittsburgh.
• 9:41
  Speaker 5: So he's facing them again right now. But maybe he'll
• 9:44
  Speaker 5: do better this time. And that was just a I
• 9:46
  Speaker 5: don't know what he did in that start. He still
• 9:48
  Speaker 5: had seven strikeouts in that outing, so at least his
• 9:51
  Speaker 5: strikeout rate was good. In four and a third, he
• 9:54
  Speaker 5: got a little bit unlucky in that outing. He's got
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: more than one strike up er inning well below one
• 9:59
  Speaker 5: hit allowed for ending on the season. His walk rate
• 10:02
  Speaker 5: isn't too bad either, so his overall numbers are good.
• 10:05
  Speaker 5: He's in good form right now, and his numbers against
• 10:07
  Speaker 5: Saint Louis they're not good, but they're not as bad
• 10:10
  Speaker 5: as you would think given how bad he was his
• 10:12
  Speaker 5: last time out against them. He's got thirty three at
• 10:15
  Speaker 5: bats against him, two forty two average allowed, eight thirty
• 10:19
  Speaker 5: nine ohps eleven to four strikeout walk ratio the ops
• 10:23
  Speaker 5: is a little bit concerning. I think he gave up
• 10:25
  Speaker 5: two of them runs that last time he faced them.
• 10:28
  Speaker 5: But Saint Louis is a more pitcher friendly park than
• 10:30
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh is. I don't know, man, I mean, I'm kind
• 10:34
  Speaker 5: of leaning towards Ashcraft pitching better in this game. Like
• 10:38
  Speaker 5: he can't really be worse than he was in his
• 10:40
  Speaker 5: worst start of the season, right so I think he
• 10:42
  Speaker 5: will improve. You know, I'm not really a fan of
• 10:45
  Speaker 5: Dustin May. I just I don't know he's pitching better recently,
• 10:48
  Speaker 5: but he hasn't really returned to form after all of
• 10:51
  Speaker 5: his injury issues and whatever. He's got a four point
• 10:54
  Speaker 5: eight one ERA one point four to two whip pitching
• 10:57
  Speaker 5: for the Cardinals here. He's been a little bit better
• 10:59
  Speaker 5: at home though, four point five home ERA, and he
• 11:02
  Speaker 5: hasn't allowed more than three or runs and any starts
• 11:04
  Speaker 5: since early April, so he is.
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: Definitely pitching better.
• 11:07
  Speaker 5: However, if you dig into this month's numbers, the walk
• 11:10
  Speaker 5: number is really not good. Thirteen strikeouts is low, but
• 11:14
  Speaker 5: also eight walks. That's in eighteen innings. He's allowed fourteen hits.
• 11:18
  Speaker 5: That's not too bad, but the number of walks is
• 11:21
  Speaker 5: definitely concerning. His strikeout rate is down on the course
• 11:24
  Speaker 5: of the year or two, which tells you that he
• 11:26
  Speaker 5: just doesn't really have his stuff at this point. Like
• 11:29
  Speaker 5: his strike out rates really low. He's allowed more than
• 11:32
  Speaker 5: one hit per inning this season as well, by quite
• 11:34
  Speaker 5: a bit, which is not good. His walk number is
• 11:38
  Speaker 5: not horrible, but not great. I don't know if I
• 11:41
  Speaker 5: trust may necessarily. His numbers against Pittsburgh are also bad.
• 11:46
  Speaker 5: In forty at bats, four hundred batting average allowed, eleven
• 11:50
  Speaker 5: sixty four oh ps, four to seven strikeout walk ratio.
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: That's not good.
• 11:58
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna lean to Pittsburgh here. They're the better overall team.
• 12:01
  Speaker 5: I think they probably still have a slight bullpen age.
• 12:04
  Speaker 5: I think they have the better starting pitcher going here.
• 12:07
  Speaker 5: Who's I think in the better current form. I worry
• 12:10
  Speaker 5: a bit about the specific matchup for him, though it's
• 12:12
  Speaker 5: not on my card.
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: Money is coming in on Saint Louis, but I don't
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: agree with that.
• 12:16
  Speaker 5: Fifty six percent of ticket, sixty seven percent of the
• 12:19
  Speaker 5: cash on them.
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis is also an underdog now.
• 12:23
  Speaker 5: The money, it looks like the money line at least
• 12:26
  Speaker 5: initially moved towards Pittsburgh and they were like a minus
• 12:29
  Speaker 5: one thirty or so favorite here.
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: But yeah, that's the way I would lean. There's a
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: reason why.
• 12:33
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh is a road favorite even though Saint Louis has
• 12:36
  Speaker 5: the better record. The oddsmakers are telling you something with
• 12:38
  Speaker 5: that line there, So yeah, I agree with what they're.
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: Telling us there.
• 12:42
  Speaker 5: I would lean Pittsburgh there, but I did not put
• 12:44
  Speaker 5: that one on my card.
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: Tyson, what's up? Thanks for hanging out all right?
• 12:51
  Speaker 5: Mets Washington, this man, this game. This is a four
• 12:55
  Speaker 5: game series. The Mets won the first game, and then
• 12:58
  Speaker 5: the Nationals won the last two. Every game in the
• 13:02
  Speaker 5: series has gone over, and I like this one to
• 13:05
  Speaker 5: also go over. I mean, this is I know the
• 13:09
  Speaker 5: Mets haven't hit well at all this year, but they've
• 13:11
  Speaker 5: been hitting well in this series. Washington gives up a
• 13:13
  Speaker 5: ton of runs at home. Washington's pitching is pretty bad,
• 13:18
  Speaker 5: just all over the board, and I don't like the
• 13:20
  Speaker 5: pitching matchup in this game either. Washington did save their
• 13:23
  Speaker 5: bullpen yesterday, though they only use one relief pitcher yesterday,
• 13:27
  Speaker 5: the Mets only used two. The Mets do have the
• 13:29
  Speaker 5: better bullpen. The Mets are ranked eleventh right now. Their
• 13:33
  Speaker 5: era is pretty good. Washington twenty fifth, not a good bullpen.
• 13:37
  Speaker 5: Mets are now tied for dead last in offense with
• 13:42
  Speaker 5: the Padres, so way to go, Mets. You're not alone
• 13:46
  Speaker 5: dead last now and Washington is fourth offensively, so they
• 13:51
  Speaker 5: have been pretty good offensively. This starting pitching matchup, Man
• 13:55
  Speaker 5: David Peterson is listed as a starter for the Mets.
• 13:57
  Speaker 5: It's like they're doing with the Red Sox did with Bao,
• 14:00
  Speaker 5: and you saw him how that worked out. Bao like
• 14:03
  Speaker 5: pitched pretty well with an opener. Pitching in front of
• 14:06
  Speaker 5: him twice, and then they're like, oh, he's fixed, let's
• 14:08
  Speaker 5: let's make him a starter again. Nope, and then he
• 14:10
  Speaker 5: gets absolutely blasted. That looks like that's what the Mets
• 14:13
  Speaker 5: are doing here with David Peterson. Peterson has had an
• 14:16
  Speaker 5: opener in front of him, I think three different times now,
• 14:20
  Speaker 5: and now they're like, Oh, Peterson's been pitching a little
• 14:22
  Speaker 5: bit better, let's make him a starter again. Yeah, I'm
• 14:25
  Speaker 5: not sure that's gonna go well. You know me, I
• 14:27
  Speaker 5: don't like I don't like Peterson. I don't think he's good.
• 14:30
  Speaker 5: His numbers this year are obviously not good five point
• 14:33
  Speaker 5: four ERA, one point five to seven whip. He's been
• 14:37
  Speaker 5: better on the road though, four point five roadyra so
• 14:40
  Speaker 5: i'll give him that. His last three appearances, I'm pretty
• 14:44
  Speaker 5: sure all the appearances this month were all coming in
• 14:47
  Speaker 5: in relief after an opener, and he went at most
• 14:50
  Speaker 5: five innings, which was a decent outing against Arizona. He
• 14:53
  Speaker 5: didn't give up any earned runs there. He was a
• 14:56
  Speaker 5: little bit shakier against the Yankees, for sure. He walked
• 14:59
  Speaker 5: three guys, although his strikeout rate was higher with eight,
• 15:02
  Speaker 5: so overall his strike out walk raceire this month is
• 15:05
  Speaker 5: actually good seventeen to three, so his command is sort
• 15:10
  Speaker 5: of there.
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: But I don't know if.
• 15:12
  Speaker 5: Moving him back into the starting rotation is a good
• 15:14
  Speaker 5: ida man. He might pitch well, but guess who he
• 15:17
  Speaker 5: pitched against that The reason why they moved him out
• 15:20
  Speaker 5: of the starting rotation was because he got lit up
• 15:23
  Speaker 5: by Washington at home, where he is pitching worse at
• 15:26
  Speaker 5: home this year, but Washington gave him his worst start
• 15:29
  Speaker 5: of the season. You think he's gonna come in and
• 15:32
  Speaker 5: pitch well this time, I'm not so sure about that.
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: That was a bad start.
• 15:37
  Speaker 5: Seven are in runs allowed in three and two thirds innings,
• 15:40
  Speaker 5: not good against Washington. Overall, his numbers are actually not
• 15:45
  Speaker 5: as bad as you would think. In ninety seven at
• 15:47
  Speaker 5: bats twenty one to seven strike out walk race year
• 15:50
  Speaker 5: two seventy eight average is not very good, but six
• 15:53
  Speaker 5: fifty nine ohps is not that high. So he's allowed
• 15:56
  Speaker 5: a lot of singles to them, but they haven't really
• 15:58
  Speaker 5: hit him for power. Peterson is known as a ground
• 16:01
  Speaker 5: ball pitcher, but I don't think I would trust him here.
• 16:06
  Speaker 5: If you're gonna play this game, I would also make
• 16:07
  Speaker 5: it an action play because you know that Peterson is
• 16:11
  Speaker 5: going to pitch in this game, but they still might
• 16:12
  Speaker 5: actually use an opener in front of him again.
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: So that's obviously a possibility that they still do that.
• 16:19
  Speaker 5: But I think you will get Peterson for like four
• 16:21
  Speaker 5: plus innings here anyway, So you can pretty much handicap
• 16:25
  Speaker 5: this game the same way because it's not Brian Bayo like,
• 16:29
  Speaker 5: I don't think Peterson is gonna have that much of
• 16:31
  Speaker 5: an extreme difference. Kate Cavally is pitching for Washington. He's
• 16:37
  Speaker 5: hard to figure out. He's got a four point zero
• 16:39
  Speaker 5: five VRRA, which is not that bad. One point five
• 16:41
  Speaker 5: to four whip is bad. He's actually better at home
• 16:45
  Speaker 5: three point seven to five VRA. He's one of washington
• 16:48
  Speaker 5: His only pitchers who's actually better at home, and this
• 16:50
  Speaker 5: month he's actually been pretty good. He's got a fourteen
• 16:53
  Speaker 5: to four strikeout walk race here this month. He's got
• 16:56
  Speaker 5: at least five innings in all but one of his
• 16:59
  Speaker 5: last five star and he's allowed three or fewer earned
• 17:02
  Speaker 5: runs in all of those.
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: That's not too bad, but his whip is obviously bad.
• 17:07
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate is good, he's got way like a
• 17:10
  Speaker 5: decent amount over one strike up or inning.
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: But he's been too hittable. That's really been his problem.
• 17:15
  Speaker 5: His walk rate's like a little bit high, but his
• 17:17
  Speaker 5: number of hits allowed is really bad, so he's got
• 17:20
  Speaker 5: to somehow be less hittable. This month, it's still been
• 17:24
  Speaker 5: a little bit of a concern. He's allowed one more
• 17:26
  Speaker 5: hit than ending pitch, but he's not been that bad though,
• 17:31
  Speaker 5: so I don't know. I don't hate Cavali, but his
• 17:34
  Speaker 5: numbers against the Mets are pretty bad though. In twenty
• 17:37
  Speaker 5: three at bats four thirty five batting average allowed one
• 17:40
  Speaker 5: eighty nine ohps six to two strike out walk ratio.
• 17:44
  Speaker 5: I lean over in this game, but the money is
• 17:46
  Speaker 5: slightly tilted towards the under fifty eight percent of ticket
• 17:50
  Speaker 5: sixty percent of the cash on the under totals at eight,
• 17:53
  Speaker 5: which to me seems kind of low for this pitching matchup.
• 17:57
  Speaker 5: I know the Mets haven't hit well, but this is
• 18:00
  Speaker 5: they've hit well or well enough every game has gone
• 18:03
  Speaker 5: over although Washington's done a lot of offensive damage in
• 18:07
  Speaker 5: the series as well. Both pitchers could actually pitch well here,
• 18:11
  Speaker 5: like they're both in better form right now. So that's
• 18:13
  Speaker 5: what I worry about about the over here that in
• 18:16
  Speaker 5: the market read I suppose, but Yeah, that game to
• 18:18
  Speaker 5: me seems like an over, but that's not really my
• 18:20
  Speaker 5: strongest opinion.
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: Mister Pinsey, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 18:25
  Speaker 5: But you know, the matchup numbers are not really that
• 18:29
  Speaker 5: bad for Peterson either.
• 18:31
  Speaker 4: The money's coming towards Washington.
• 18:33
  Speaker 5: On the side, fifty two percent of tickets are on
• 18:35
  Speaker 5: the Mets, fifty two percent of the cash on Washington.
• 18:37
  Speaker 5: The Mets are favored on the road at around minus
• 18:41
  Speaker 5: one twelve. Based on the matchup numbers I can and
• 18:45
  Speaker 5: the fact that the Mets have the better bullpend as well,
• 18:47
  Speaker 5: I wouldn't necessarily disagree with the Mets side there, but
• 18:51
  Speaker 5: over it would be my better opinion on the game.
• 18:53
  Speaker 5: But I still don't like that either. Atlanta at Miami
• 18:57
  Speaker 5: good thing. I left that off my card because Junk
• 19:01
  Speaker 5: had one bad inning early in the game and that
• 19:03
  Speaker 5: would have ruined the first five inning over or excuse me,
• 19:07
  Speaker 5: the first five inning under excuse me that I liked
• 19:09
  Speaker 5: yesterday would have been ruined because Junk had one bad inning.
• 19:13
  Speaker 5: Chris Sale did his part yesterday obviously, in Atlanta won easily.
• 19:18
  Speaker 5: So Miami won the first game of the series and
• 19:20
  Speaker 5: blowout fashion and then Atlanta returned to form and won
• 19:23
  Speaker 5: the last two. I think both teams will show up
• 19:27
  Speaker 5: for this though it's a divisional series. You know, Atlanta
• 19:29
  Speaker 5: doesn't want to split a series with the Mets. You
• 19:31
  Speaker 5: wouldn't imagine they played Washington next, which I don't think
• 19:36
  Speaker 5: is that big of a deal Atlanta does. I'm looking
• 19:39
  Speaker 5: at the oh, I'm gonna give away what I'm playing man.
• 19:43
  Speaker 5: Atlanta used one relief pitcher yesterday, so they're bullpens in
• 19:46
  Speaker 5: pretty good shape here, and they're a good bullpen. Milwaukee
• 19:49
  Speaker 5: only used one as well, and it was DL Hall
• 19:51
  Speaker 5: who was a long relief man. So both bullpens set
• 19:55
  Speaker 5: up well here. They're both good bullpens, Atlanta number one,
• 19:58
  Speaker 5: Miami number six. Offensively, Atlanta's good and number two in offense.
• 20:04
  Speaker 5: Miami not as good at nineteen, so Atlanta does have
• 20:08
  Speaker 5: the offensive edge. I think Atlanta probably has the starting
• 20:11
  Speaker 5: pitching edge as well. Spencer Strider is pitching. He's been
• 20:15
  Speaker 5: pretty good so far coming back from injury. Two point
• 20:17
  Speaker 5: four to five ERA one point two to three WHIP.
• 20:20
  Speaker 5: I'm not sure if he's ever gonna be as dominant
• 20:22
  Speaker 5: as he was before his injuries, though, but he's been
• 20:25
  Speaker 5: pretty good.
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: He's not been as good on.
• 20:27
  Speaker 5: The road, but his roadie ray is still two point
• 20:30
  Speaker 5: eight nine, which is not bad at all. He's only
• 20:32
  Speaker 5: made three starts, though, and he's walked way too many guys,
• 20:36
  Speaker 5: so that's the problem. His strikeout rate is good. That
• 20:38
  Speaker 5: does tell you that because he has eighteen strikeouts in
• 20:41
  Speaker 5: fourteen to two thirds innings. He's definitely fooling hitters and he's.
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: Been pretty unhittable.
• 20:45
  Speaker 5: He's only a lot eight hits, and he pitched in
• 20:48
  Speaker 5: course field, but he struggled in that out and he
• 20:50
  Speaker 5: did a lot better against the Dodgers, and then he
• 20:53
  Speaker 5: was okay against the Red Sox but not great, and
• 20:56
  Speaker 5: the Red Sox haven't been a good offense, so that
• 21:00
  Speaker 5: that start doesn't look that great to me. He's got
• 21:02
  Speaker 5: ten walks over that span, so he's walking almost one
• 21:05
  Speaker 5: guy an inning, pretty close to that, so that's not good.
• 21:09
  Speaker 5: Like I think, he's always had some wildness concerns, but
• 21:12
  Speaker 5: you cannot walk that many people, man, so he's got
• 21:14
  Speaker 5: to get.
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: That under wraps.
• 21:17
  Speaker 5: Atlanta's won all three of his outings, but he's had
• 21:19
  Speaker 5: a lot of runs, supporting a couple of them against Miami.
• 21:22
  Speaker 5: He does have good numbers, but it's only twelve at bats.
• 21:25
  Speaker 5: They only have five hitters. I've ever faced them before.
• 21:27
  Speaker 5: The only hit is a triple from Xavier Edwards. Two strikeouts,
• 21:32
  Speaker 5: two walks, eighty three average four to sixty four ops.
• 21:36
  Speaker 5: But I generally I think Strider will pitch well here.
• 21:40
  Speaker 5: It's a pitcher friendly park. Not the most intimidating offense here.
• 21:44
  Speaker 5: Sandy Alcantra is more of the wildcard here. He's pitching
• 21:47
  Speaker 5: for Miami. He's been decent this year, three point five
• 21:50
  Speaker 5: to three ERA, one point twenty six whip.
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: He's good at home two.
• 21:54
  Speaker 5: Point nine to five home ERA, pitch really well. In
• 21:57
  Speaker 5: his last outing, gave up nowhere runs and six innings
• 22:01
  Speaker 5: against Tampa Bay on the road, six strikeouts, no walks
• 22:04
  Speaker 5: in that one. His last two starts have both been
• 22:06
  Speaker 5: pretty good, but his strikeout rate is low, and that's
• 22:10
  Speaker 5: kind of a concernal this month that hasn't been that
• 22:12
  Speaker 5: low fourteen to five strike out walk ratio in sixteen
• 22:16
  Speaker 5: to third innings.
• 22:16
  Speaker 4: You'd like to see that strike out rate be a
• 22:18
  Speaker 4: little higher, the walk number lower.
• 22:20
  Speaker 5: But his strike out rate is really low on the season. Though,
• 22:24
  Speaker 5: like I think that he's just not going to fully
• 22:27
  Speaker 5: recover from the surgery, and you know the injury issues
• 22:30
  Speaker 5: that he's had throughout his career. You can tell, like
• 22:33
  Speaker 5: his strike out rate is really low based on the
• 22:36
  Speaker 5: amount of innings pitch.
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: That's not good.
• 22:38
  Speaker 5: He's a lot fewer than one hit per innings, so
• 22:40
  Speaker 5: he is still going out there and mostly pitching successfully.
• 22:44
  Speaker 5: The walk number is also too high, though, he's got
• 22:46
  Speaker 5: to get that walk number down. So Yeah, the days
• 22:49
  Speaker 5: of Cy Young Sandy Alcantra are not there anymore.
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: His numbers.
• 22:55
  Speaker 5: Think it's Atlanta or mediocre. In two hundred and twenty
• 22:59
  Speaker 5: at bats that's one of the biggest sample sizes you'll see.
• 23:02
  Speaker 5: That is a ton of it. Bats fifty five strikeouts,
• 23:05
  Speaker 5: twenty three walks. That is a lot of walks. That's
• 23:07
  Speaker 5: not good, although eight of them are akun Yeah, he
• 23:10
  Speaker 5: probably pitches around him. Two forty one batting average allowed,
• 23:13
  Speaker 5: seven to twenty three oh ps. Those are not horrible
• 23:15
  Speaker 5: numbers there the ops. You know, I'd like to see
• 23:20
  Speaker 5: it lower, but it's not that bad. I think Atlanta's
• 23:24
  Speaker 5: got the advantage here though, man, you know, I'd probably
• 23:28
  Speaker 5: slightly lean that way, but the money's coming in against it.
• 23:30
  Speaker 5: Atlanta is a decent sized favorite here in the minus
• 23:33
  Speaker 5: one thirties on the road, seventy two percent of tickets,
• 23:36
  Speaker 5: only fifty nine percent of the cash on them, So
• 23:38
  Speaker 5: the money's indicating against Atlanta. The under looks like it's
• 23:43
  Speaker 5: getting some traction. Sixty seven percent of tickets, seventy percent
• 23:46
  Speaker 5: of the cash.
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: On the under.
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 23:49
  Speaker 5: The total is mostly seven and a half, but like
• 23:53
  Speaker 5: heavily juiced to the over actually for the most part,
• 23:57
  Speaker 5: so the total actually flipped.
• 23:59
  Speaker 4: To being juice to the over.
• 24:02
  Speaker 5: You can get a decent number on that total. I
• 24:05
  Speaker 5: probably wouldn't disagree really with the under. Maybe the under
• 24:08
  Speaker 5: is the better way to look at this game. But
• 24:11
  Speaker 5: the problem is you have an explosive Atlanta offense and
• 24:14
  Speaker 5: they're very familiar with Olcondra, and ol Condra.
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: Is a wild card.
• 24:17
  Speaker 5: I could see him pitching really well, but I could
• 24:19
  Speaker 5: also see him getting blown up in this start, you
• 24:22
  Speaker 5: know what I mean. So that's difficult to figure out. Man, Kyle,
• 24:28
  Speaker 5: what's up? Yeah, it's a heater. Took a loss yesterday.
• 24:31
  Speaker 5: They probably shouldn't have been a loss, and some of
• 24:34
  Speaker 5: my other leans were correct.
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: Yesterday.
• 24:36
  Speaker 5: I was correct about Minnesota, although they had to score
• 24:39
  Speaker 5: some late runs to get that done, so I'm not
• 24:43
  Speaker 5: mad that I didn't have that on my card. And
• 24:44
  Speaker 5: I think the over in the Diamondbacks game happened as well,
• 24:47
  Speaker 5: but I think that was fairly close as well, so
• 24:50
  Speaker 5: I'm not too mad about it.
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: Really.
• 24:54
  Speaker 5: I'm kind of mad about the way the loss happened, though,
• 24:56
  Speaker 5: because it probably should have been a winner in the
• 24:59
  Speaker 5: Red Sox rule first five under, losing on a bottom
• 25:03
  Speaker 5: of the fifth to run home run by the Royals.
• 25:05
  Speaker 5: I'm happy the Red Sox wound up winning the game, though,
• 25:08
  Speaker 5: I was just like at that point, I was like,
• 25:09
  Speaker 5: please just have this.
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: Game go over.
• 25:11
  Speaker 5: So I'm not gonna be angry that the full game
• 25:14
  Speaker 5: went under, but it did all right. But yeah, I
• 25:18
  Speaker 5: think probably the better opinion on that Atlanta Miami game
• 25:20
  Speaker 5: is the under, but I don't know. I mean, it's
• 25:23
  Speaker 5: a little bit hard to predict.
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: My favorite.
• 25:27
  Speaker 5: Opinion in baseball today is in this Blue Jays Yankees
• 25:31
  Speaker 5: game on MLB Network.
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: I like the over in this game.
• 25:35
  Speaker 5: I think if I was gonna play any baseball game,
• 25:37
  Speaker 5: that's what I would do.
• 25:39
  Speaker 4: The Yankees.
• 25:41
  Speaker 5: They've scored a lot of runs at home so far,
• 25:43
  Speaker 5: yesterday's game went under and landed two to one Toronto,
• 25:47
  Speaker 5: so we could have a return to some offense here.
• 25:51
  Speaker 5: It is a night game, so I'm not too worried
• 25:52
  Speaker 5: about Oh, you know, it's getaway day. These teams are
• 25:55
  Speaker 5: gonna have to pack up and start traveling today.
• 25:58
  Speaker 4: But these teams are gonna ravel. I believe the Yankees are. No.
• 26:03
  Speaker 5: The Yankees are just staying at home actually, so that's
• 26:05
  Speaker 5: less of a concern, but could be a look ahead
• 26:07
  Speaker 5: for the Yankees though, because they do have Tampa Bay
• 26:10
  Speaker 5: coming into town next. That's gonna be a big weekend
• 26:13
  Speaker 5: series between the top two teams in the American League,
• 26:16
  Speaker 5: at least standing wise.
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: I'm not sure Tampa is as good as the record looks.
• 26:21
  Speaker 5: The Yankees are quite clearly the best team in the
• 26:24
  Speaker 5: American League. Toronto might have a little bit more motivation
• 26:29
  Speaker 5: in this game, but the Yankees probably also don't want to,
• 26:33
  Speaker 5: you know, split a series. They're winning two to nothing,
• 26:36
  Speaker 5: and the Yankees almost lost the other two games too.
• 26:39
  Speaker 5: All the games have been close in this series. It's
• 26:41
  Speaker 5: been a competitive series. Yankees used two relieved pitchers yesterday,
• 26:45
  Speaker 5: Toronto used four, although they only use a couple of
• 26:48
  Speaker 5: them for single digit pitch counts. Yankees have the better bullpen.
• 26:53
  Speaker 5: They're actually ninth, which is pretty good. Toronto is fourteenth,
• 26:57
  Speaker 5: so they're not that bad. Yankees have a way better offense.
• 27:00
  Speaker 5: They're third, and they're really good at home. Toronto twenty seventh.
• 27:05
  Speaker 5: Pretty bad. They've fallen behind the Red Sox. That is
• 27:09
  Speaker 5: not a good sign. Toronto's going with a bullpen game here,
• 27:12
  Speaker 5: even though he used four relief pitchers yesterday. Brayden Fisher
• 27:16
  Speaker 5: is listed as the starting pitcher here. He's been good
• 27:19
  Speaker 5: this year, but he's a relief pitcher. He's got a
• 27:21
  Speaker 5: three point eight RA one point six whip. He made
• 27:25
  Speaker 5: one start last year, but I looked into it like
• 27:27
  Speaker 5: he hasn't gone more than two innings pitched in any
• 27:31
  Speaker 5: of his major league appearances. He's made one start this
• 27:34
  Speaker 5: year too, and it was also an opener type of start,
• 27:38
  Speaker 5: So I think he's gonna give you one to.
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: Two innings here. Probably.
• 27:42
  Speaker 5: He's been good when he's been out there. Uh, this month,
• 27:45
  Speaker 5: he hasn't been as good though, and he pitched in
• 27:47
  Speaker 5: this series, by the way. He pitched on Monday in
• 27:50
  Speaker 5: Game one of the series, and he held the Yankees
• 27:52
  Speaker 5: scoreless in one to two thirds innings. Not really much
• 27:56
  Speaker 5: to take away from that. But this month he actually
• 27:58
  Speaker 5: hasn't been good. He has a five point seven nine
• 28:00
  Speaker 5: this month. So I don't think you want to over
• 28:03
  Speaker 5: handicap this because he's only gonna be out there for
• 28:05
  Speaker 5: a couple innings. All those numbers against the Yankees are fine,
• 28:09
  Speaker 5: two fifty average, six to sixty seven ops in twenty
• 28:12
  Speaker 5: four at bats, nine strikeouts, three walks. But Toronto's going
• 28:16
  Speaker 5: with a bullpen game and they've done that before this
• 28:19
  Speaker 5: year and sometimes it's been good. But I just don't
• 28:23
  Speaker 5: know if it's gonna work out for them here. Yankees
• 28:25
  Speaker 5: are just too much of an imposing offense at home,
• 28:28
  Speaker 5: so I think the Yankees are gonna score runs here.
• 28:31
  Speaker 5: And Carlos Rodon is pitching for the Yankees. He's been
• 28:34
  Speaker 5: awful in his return so far. Five point six y
• 28:37
  Speaker 5: three ERA, one point sixty three whip. I expect him
• 28:40
  Speaker 5: to return to form at some point, like he actually
• 28:43
  Speaker 5: had a decent season last year, even though the Yankee
• 28:46
  Speaker 5: fans seem to be complaining about him, But like, what do.
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: You have to complain?
• 28:50
  Speaker 5: Like his numbers were pretty good last year. This year though,
• 28:52
  Speaker 5: all right, you can complain about this. So far, he's
• 28:55
  Speaker 5: been a little bit better. Uh oh no, wait sorry,
• 28:57
  Speaker 5: Both of his starts have been on the road, my mistake.
• 29:00
  Speaker 5: So this is gonna be his first home start.
• 29:01
  Speaker 4: Of the season where I don't know if his splits
• 29:04
  Speaker 4: were significant last year.
• 29:06
  Speaker 5: No, they were really not. He was the same home
• 29:08
  Speaker 5: and away last year. But he's really struggled in his.
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: Two outings so far. Man.
• 29:12
  Speaker 5: He's got ten strikeouts in eight innings, which is good.
• 29:15
  Speaker 5: That means he is fooling hitters, but he hasn't made
• 29:18
  Speaker 5: it past four to third innings in either outing.
• 29:20
  Speaker 4: He's walked eight guys. He's allowed five or in runs
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: in eight innings.
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: Year.
• 29:24
  Speaker 5: He's only allowed five hits though, so that's good. Hasn't
• 29:27
  Speaker 5: been too hittable. But one of the starts was against
• 29:31
  Speaker 5: the Mets. That's not a good sign because they're a
• 29:33
  Speaker 5: weak offense. Milwaukee has been a pretty good offense recently,
• 29:36
  Speaker 5: so he gets more of a pass for that one,
• 29:39
  Speaker 5: especially because it was his first game back. But remember,
• 29:42
  Speaker 5: like I said, he's coming back from injury. He's not
• 29:44
  Speaker 5: gonna be this bad as the season progresses. But he's
• 29:49
  Speaker 5: not pitching well. Right now, and his numbers against Toronto
• 29:52
  Speaker 5: are also not good. In one hundred and four at bats,
• 29:55
  Speaker 5: they're really familiar with him. Twenty eight strikeouts, fourteen walks.
• 29:58
  Speaker 5: That is a bad race show two seventy nine average allowed,
• 30:02
  Speaker 5: eight thirty six ops.
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: So Toronto has been able to hit him.
• 30:06
  Speaker 5: Of Vlad Guerrero really really does a lot of damage
• 30:09
  Speaker 5: to him eleven for eighteen with two of them runs,
• 30:12
  Speaker 5: three doubles and five walks and no strikeouts. So if
• 30:15
  Speaker 5: you want a player prop, Vlad Guerrero pretty much kills
• 30:20
  Speaker 5: Carlos Radon, So something to keep in mind there. I
• 30:24
  Speaker 5: recommend hits plus runs plus RBIs because total bas is,
• 30:27
  Speaker 5: if your guy gets a walk, it doesn't count, whereas
• 30:30
  Speaker 5: at least hits plus runs plus RBIs if your guy walks,
• 30:33
  Speaker 5: you know it could walk in a run, or obviously
• 30:36
  Speaker 5: he gets on base, so you can still.
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: Score a run that way, you know what I mean.
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: But I like over in this one.
• 30:42
  Speaker 5: I don't think Redon is gonna just solve everything immediately
• 30:45
  Speaker 5: here against a team that does fairly well against him,
• 30:48
  Speaker 5: and I don't trust the Toronto bullpend game either, So
• 30:51
  Speaker 5: if I was gonna play any game on the baseball board.
• 30:54
  Speaker 5: Over eight eight seems like a pretty low number to me, man,
• 30:58
  Speaker 5: But the oddsmakers are not just handing you money, though,
• 31:01
  Speaker 5: and they pretty much know the public is probably gonna
• 31:04
  Speaker 5: be playing an.
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: Over in a Yankee game. You know.
• 31:06
  Speaker 5: Even though yesterday's game was low scoring, money's hitting the
• 31:09
  Speaker 5: under though, fifty eight percent of tickets, seventy nine percent
• 31:12
  Speaker 5: of the cash on the under.
• 31:13
  Speaker 4: That does concern me a little bit.
• 31:16
  Speaker 5: On the side, the Yankees are getting some of the money,
• 31:18
  Speaker 5: They're around minus one sixty minus one fifties, eighty seven
• 31:22
  Speaker 5: percent of tickets, eighty nine percent of the cash on them.
• 31:25
  Speaker 5: I think the Yankees are a public side though, But again,
• 31:29
  Speaker 5: I mean, I don't know which one of these pitchers
• 31:31
  Speaker 5: to trust.
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: I don't know who to trust. Yeah, I think this
• 31:36
  Speaker 4: is a bad pitching matchup, Dude.
• 31:37
  Speaker 5: I like the over in that one, so yeah, that
• 31:42
  Speaker 5: that is the way that I would go in that
• 31:43
  Speaker 5: game if I was gonna do anything. And I don't
• 31:47
  Speaker 5: love either bullpen necessarily either, so but you know me,
• 31:50
  Speaker 5: if I go over, well, Toronto's bullpen is gonna be
• 31:53
  Speaker 5: pitching the whole game. But also if I go over,
• 31:55
  Speaker 5: you know, basically I'm saying that I think something's gonna
• 31:58
  Speaker 5: go wrong with the starting pitching, so you're gonna get
• 32:01
  Speaker 5: some of the lesser relievers into play. Probably the game's
• 32:04
  Speaker 5: gonna get a little bit out of hand, is what
• 32:05
  Speaker 5: I'm saying. And Rodon hasn't gone deep, so the Yankees
• 32:08
  Speaker 5: bullpen might have to enter that game early.
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: Josh, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 32:14
  Speaker 5: I don't really do anything with player props myself, but
• 32:16
  Speaker 5: like looking at these baseball it's like kind of easy
• 32:19
  Speaker 5: to identify, like, oh, this guy has a good matchup
• 32:21
  Speaker 5: against this guy because it's such a one on one matchup,
• 32:25
  Speaker 5: you know what I mean. It's like one guy could
• 32:26
  Speaker 5: definitely just have an edge over somebody else. A's and
• 32:31
  Speaker 5: Anaheim as we get into these late night games here, uh,
• 32:35
  Speaker 5: these teams are finishing up a four game series as well.
• 32:37
  Speaker 5: Anaheim won the first game after almost being no hit
• 32:41
  Speaker 5: in the game. They got a two run home run
• 32:43
  Speaker 5: against J. T. Ginham one. Then the A's won the
• 32:46
  Speaker 5: last two games, so the A's could have won all
• 32:48
  Speaker 5: three of these games. Anaheim is not playing well, although
• 32:52
  Speaker 5: you look at the starting pitching matchup here, looks like
• 32:55
  Speaker 5: Anaheim has a starting pitching edge year, but maybe not
• 32:58
  Speaker 5: given the splits and the current Anaheim also does not
• 33:02
  Speaker 5: have a bullpen edge against many teams. They use five
• 33:05
  Speaker 5: relief pitchers yesterday too, and their bullpen is a mess.
• 33:09
  Speaker 5: The A's bullpen isn't good, but it's better than Anaheim's.
• 33:11
  Speaker 5: They use four relief pitchers yesterday. A's are twenty second
• 33:16
  Speaker 5: in bullpens. Still not good. Anaheim is second to last
• 33:19
  Speaker 5: twenty ninth. They're really really bad. They're almost as bad
• 33:22
  Speaker 5: as Houston now and worse than Minnesota.
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: Pretty bad.
• 33:28
  Speaker 5: Offensively, the A's have been pretty good their sixth. Anaheim
• 33:31
  Speaker 5: has really really dropped off. Their twenty fifth, almost as
• 33:36
  Speaker 5: bad as the Red Sox. Not good. Luis Severino is
• 33:40
  Speaker 5: pitching for the A's and one interesting thing about this
• 33:44
  Speaker 5: pitching matchup is you have several Reno where he pitches
• 33:48
  Speaker 5: better on the road, so he's in the good part
• 33:50
  Speaker 5: of his own road splits. Soriano actually pitches worse at
• 33:54
  Speaker 5: home and he's in the worst of his own road
• 33:56
  Speaker 5: slits at home. So I looked at that, I was like, oh,
• 33:59
  Speaker 5: that kind of has me lean towards the A's here,
• 34:01
  Speaker 5: because seven Reno's better on the road. Sorianno's worse at home,
• 34:05
  Speaker 5: so it's an interesting setup where the home road splits
• 34:07
  Speaker 5: both favor the road Pitcher seven Reno hasn't been good
• 34:11
  Speaker 5: this year though, four point four to five ERA, one
• 34:14
  Speaker 5: point five to seven whip.
• 34:15
  Speaker 4: But just like last year, he gets.
• 34:17
  Speaker 5: Bombed at home in that horrible a stadium, and he's
• 34:21
  Speaker 5: much better on the road. He's only allowed one home
• 34:24
  Speaker 5: run outside of that stadium in more innings pitch. He
• 34:26
  Speaker 5: has a three point five to six road ERA, so
• 34:29
  Speaker 5: seven Reno is at least backable on the road this month.
• 34:34
  Speaker 5: Way too many walks, fourteen strike ups, eight walks. He's
• 34:37
  Speaker 5: got to get that walk number down, man, Although he
• 34:39
  Speaker 5: did go four starts in a row where he allowed
• 34:43
  Speaker 5: two or fewer earned runs, of course three of them
• 34:45
  Speaker 5: were on the road. He came back home and he
• 34:47
  Speaker 5: got blown up a little bit by San Francisco, not
• 34:51
  Speaker 5: a good offense at all.
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: They hit him around, man.
• 34:54
  Speaker 5: He didn't walk that many guys, had a good amount
• 34:56
  Speaker 5: of strikeouts, but they tagged him for.
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: A lot of hits in that one. So that wasn't good.
• 35:00
  Speaker 5: But that was at home, but it was against a
• 35:02
  Speaker 5: bad offense. You look at his numbers overall. His strikeout
• 35:05
  Speaker 5: rate is high, but his walk rate is incredibly high.
• 35:09
  Speaker 5: He's got like basically one strike up er inning one
• 35:11
  Speaker 5: hit per inning. That's pretty decent, but his walk rate
• 35:14
  Speaker 5: is absurd, Like he's walking more than one guy every
• 35:18
  Speaker 5: two winnings.
• 35:19
  Speaker 4: You can't do that, man.
• 35:21
  Speaker 5: He has one of the worst walk rates in baseball,
• 35:24
  Speaker 5: and it's you know, it's spread out pretty evenly over
• 35:27
  Speaker 5: his starts too, So his wildness is a major concern.
• 35:31
  Speaker 5: And his numbers against Anaheim are pretty bad. And fifty
• 35:34
  Speaker 5: nine at bats, three h five average, nine to nineteen ops, seventeen.
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: To five strike out walk ratio is good.
• 35:41
  Speaker 5: He is going on the road, though, so I'm not
• 35:43
  Speaker 5: necessarily wanting to fade him here. But these are bad numbers, dude,
• 35:47
  Speaker 5: and this is a pretty hitter friendly park, so he
• 35:50
  Speaker 5: does not draw a good matchup here. Jose Soriano pitching
• 35:54
  Speaker 5: for the Angels. He was pitching really well at the
• 35:57
  Speaker 5: beginning of the season, and this month he has not
• 35:59
  Speaker 5: been hitching well.
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: He's got a two.
• 36:01
  Speaker 5: Point four to one ERA one point zero seven whip.
• 36:04
  Speaker 5: His numbers were so good early in the season that
• 36:06
  Speaker 5: he can take some really bad starts and still have
• 36:09
  Speaker 5: good numbers. He's worse at home, though, just like he
• 36:12
  Speaker 5: has been throughout his career. He's got a three point
• 36:16
  Speaker 5: eight six ERRA at home. This is a hitter friendly stadium.
• 36:20
  Speaker 5: Like I said, it's not as hitter friendly as the
• 36:22
  Speaker 5: as stadium, but it's still pretty hitter friendly. Uh not
• 36:26
  Speaker 5: even a bad RA at home three point eighty six,
• 36:28
  Speaker 5: but it's still a lot worse than his road era,
• 36:31
  Speaker 5: so Soriano, just like last year, struggling at home. He's
• 36:36
  Speaker 5: had three bad outings in his last four outings now,
• 36:39
  Speaker 5: but two of them are against the White Sox, so
• 36:41
  Speaker 5: maybe that's a specific matchup that he can't deal with.
• 36:45
  Speaker 5: His last outing, he did really bad against the Dodgers,
• 36:48
  Speaker 5: which was at home, but of course it is the Dodgers.
• 36:51
  Speaker 5: The Dodgers earn e lead offense. Do you give him
• 36:54
  Speaker 5: a pass for that? I'm not so sure that you do,
• 36:57
  Speaker 5: because it looks like he is trending in the wrong
• 36:59
  Speaker 5: direction here. He's got an eighteen to ten strike out
• 37:02
  Speaker 5: walk ratio this month.
• 37:03
  Speaker 4: That's not good. Way too many walks, six of them
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: in the Dodgers start. You can't do that man overall
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: over the course of the season. His numbers are still good.
• 37:12
  Speaker 5: He's been very unhittable, way way way below one hit
• 37:16
  Speaker 5: a out per ending. His walk rate is too high,
• 37:19
  Speaker 5: so that's the one issue with him pretty much. And
• 37:21
  Speaker 5: then his strike up rate is also high, so that's good.
• 37:24
  Speaker 5: His numbers against.
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: The A's are bad.
• 37:27
  Speaker 5: In eighty six at bats nineteen eleven strike out walk
• 37:30
  Speaker 5: ratio not good, three fourteen batting average nine to ninety
• 37:33
  Speaker 5: six ops.
• 37:35
  Speaker 4: All of that is not good.
• 37:37
  Speaker 5: So we have two bad bullpens, two starting pitchers with
• 37:40
  Speaker 5: bad matchup numbers. Soriano's in the worst of his home
• 37:44
  Speaker 5: road splits. He's not in good form right now. Several
• 37:47
  Speaker 5: Reno just had a bad start as well. Though, maybe
• 37:50
  Speaker 5: this one is better than the other one. Obviously, I
• 37:53
  Speaker 5: like the over in this game. Maybe this is better
• 37:55
  Speaker 5: than the Toronto and Yankees one. I'm thinking about him
• 37:58
  Speaker 5: because I don't have any baseball games on my card
• 38:01
  Speaker 5: today right now?
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: Do we put this one on? I like the over here.
• 38:05
  Speaker 4: I told you there were a few overs that I liked.
• 38:07
  Speaker 5: This one might be better than the Toronto and Yankees one.
• 38:10
  Speaker 5: To be honest, I mean, what was my concern. I'm
• 38:14
  Speaker 5: pretty sure it was just that sever Reno is typically
• 38:17
  Speaker 5: pretty good on the road.
• 38:20
  Speaker 4: Let's look at the market here. What do we got.
• 38:22
  Speaker 5: We don't see a market read on this and the
• 38:24
  Speaker 5: totals at eight that's a pretty low total. The money
• 38:28
  Speaker 5: is backing the A's, which that does make sense to me.
• 38:32
  Speaker 5: Seventy percent of tickets only fifty percent of the cash
• 38:34
  Speaker 5: on Anaheim. The public's gonna see Soreano's numbers way better
• 38:39
  Speaker 5: than seven Renos, and they're gonna come in on Soriano.
• 38:41
  Speaker 5: But like I told you, the home road splits favor
• 38:45
  Speaker 5: severn Reno over Soreano here, and the A's do have
• 38:49
  Speaker 5: the better bullpen, even though they're not good better than
• 38:52
  Speaker 5: Anaheim's bullpen, So I don't disagree with the market read.
• 38:56
  Speaker 5: They're pointing towards the A's. I'd probably agree with that
• 38:59
  Speaker 5: Anaheim is a slight favorite. Basically I picked the winner price. Uh,
• 39:04
  Speaker 5: let me look at I'm gonna look at one more thing.
• 39:06
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna look at Action Network to see what their
• 39:08
  Speaker 5: market read looks like. I think I already did this
• 39:11
  Speaker 5: earlier though on the total for this game, their market
• 39:17
  Speaker 5: looks like it's indicating towards the under, but I don't
• 39:20
  Speaker 5: know how much I really trust that. As I hear
• 39:27
  Speaker 5: sirens outside again, you know, I'm gonna be pissed. I'm
• 39:33
  Speaker 5: gonna leave it off my card, but I'm gonna be
• 39:35
  Speaker 5: pissed when this game goes over.
• 39:37
  Speaker 4: I like the over in that one.
• 39:43
  Speaker 5: How to describe the pitchers, Yeah, I mean, if I
• 39:48
  Speaker 5: do that, it's just I mean, I don't know. If
• 39:50
  Speaker 5: I point out player props, it's just gonna make this
• 39:52
  Speaker 5: show take even longer.
• 39:53
  Speaker 4: Though. Colorado at Arizona this is a new series. This
• 39:57
  Speaker 4: is the first This.
• 39:58
  Speaker 5: Is the only new seed that is beginning today. So
• 40:02
  Speaker 5: Arizona is staying at home. They just swept San Francisco,
• 40:05
  Speaker 5: and they just beat Colorado on the road two out
• 40:08
  Speaker 5: of three of the series before that. So this might
• 40:11
  Speaker 5: be a little bit of a letdown for Arizona here,
• 40:13
  Speaker 5: maybe a revenge spot for Colorado. The situation favors Colorado here,
• 40:18
  Speaker 5: you know, because they just recently lost to Arizona in
• 40:21
  Speaker 5: their home stadium.
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: Arizona might be feeling high off of that sweep of
• 40:25
  Speaker 4: another divisional foe.
• 40:28
  Speaker 5: Colorado is traveling. They're coming in from Texas. Not a
• 40:32
  Speaker 5: bad trip though, from Texas to Arizona. They lost that
• 40:35
  Speaker 5: series to Texas. They've lost three of their last four.
• 40:40
  Speaker 5: They've lost five of their last seven. It might be
• 40:43
  Speaker 5: good for Colorado after a bad home stand to just
• 40:46
  Speaker 5: go out on the road, you know.
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: I talk about this. When a team starts a road trip,
• 40:49
  Speaker 4: it usually is a focused spot, especially when you're playing
• 40:52
  Speaker 4: a divisional opponent that just beat you in your own stadium.
• 40:55
  Speaker 4: So the situation sets up well for Colorado, but I'm
• 41:00
  Speaker 4: not sure the bitching matchup does. Maybe this is another
• 41:04
  Speaker 4: over opinion here.
• 41:06
  Speaker 5: I mean, we have a hitter friendly stadium here as
• 41:08
  Speaker 5: well with Arizona. Although these bullpens aren't quite as bad
• 41:14
  Speaker 5: as some of the other bullpens.
• 41:15
  Speaker 4: Arizona used four relief pitchers yesterday. Colorado also used four.
• 41:21
  Speaker 5: Arizona's ranked third in bullpen, but I still don't trust
• 41:25
  Speaker 5: it their eras in the fours.
• 41:27
  Speaker 4: I think they're a.
• 41:27
  Speaker 5: Mediocre bullpen, but I don't think they're this good. Are
• 41:31
  Speaker 5: they better than Colorado? Probably Colorado's ranked eighteenth. They have
• 41:35
  Speaker 5: the worst ERA and whip, so probably Arizona's bullpen is better.
• 41:39
  Speaker 5: But I don't like either bullpen that much. Arizona started
• 41:42
  Speaker 5: to hit again there at eleventh and hitting Colorado is
• 41:47
  Speaker 5: where's Colorado? Why don't I see them here?
• 41:51
  Speaker 4: Oh? They're eighteenth.
• 41:52
  Speaker 5: Yeah, Colorado dropped a little bit offensively Colorado. Usually they
• 41:56
  Speaker 5: hit better at home, although that hasn't really really been
• 41:59
  Speaker 5: the case this season. And I don't know, but Colorado's
• 42:01
  Speaker 5: going with uh zach Ayos? Is that how you pronounced
• 42:05
  Speaker 5: his name, zach Agnos Annos?
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: I think he's a relief pitcher.
• 42:11
  Speaker 5: So it looks like Colorado's going with kind of a
• 42:13
  Speaker 5: bullpend game here. His numbers also are pretty bad, five
• 42:16
  Speaker 5: point five to ninety RA, one point four to one whip.
• 42:20
  Speaker 5: He's a little bit better outside of corps five point
• 42:22
  Speaker 5: one to nine e RA, but's still not good. He's
• 42:25
  Speaker 5: gotten like almost a starter's workload a couple of times.
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: Recently.
• 42:28
  Speaker 5: He's gone four, four to third innings a couple of times.
• 42:32
  Speaker 4: Still, I mean, I'm not expecting that much out of him.
• 42:34
  Speaker 5: I think he'll he'll probably do the same and go
• 42:36
  Speaker 5: three or four innings here just to give Colorado some innings,
• 42:41
  Speaker 5: just because they don't have anybody. But it's sort of
• 42:44
  Speaker 5: a pseudo bullpen game for Colorado. So that doesn't really
• 42:47
  Speaker 5: look that good to me. His numbers against Arizona are
• 42:50
  Speaker 5: fine for what that's worth. In eighteen at bats to
• 42:53
  Speaker 5: twenty two average allowed, five point fifty six ops. I'm
• 42:56
  Speaker 5: not really like full bore on faate this Colorado pitching
• 43:01
  Speaker 5: set up here, but I don't think it's great. E
• 43:04
  Speaker 5: rod is pitching for Arizona. Eduardo Rodriguez. He's actually been
• 43:08
  Speaker 5: decent this season. Two point five to three ERA is
• 43:11
  Speaker 5: definitely good. One point two to six whip indicates that
• 43:13
  Speaker 5: his ERA should probably be higher. He's been good at
• 43:17
  Speaker 5: home one point six to five home e RA, even
• 43:20
  Speaker 5: though it's a hitter friendly ballpark. He did just face
• 43:23
  Speaker 5: Colorado on the road, and he wasn't great in that outing,
• 43:27
  Speaker 5: but he held him to three runs and five and
• 43:28
  Speaker 5: a third innings. Did give up nine hits though, so
• 43:31
  Speaker 5: he was definitely hittable in that outing, but his command.
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: Was pretty good.
• 43:35
  Speaker 5: He had six strikeouts and no walks there, so that
• 43:38
  Speaker 5: wasn't that bad of a start.
• 43:40
  Speaker 4: He's actually pitched pretty well this month.
• 43:42
  Speaker 5: Seventeen strikeouts, six walks isn't that great, but he has
• 43:46
  Speaker 5: a one point seven to four ERA in three starts
• 43:49
  Speaker 5: this month. Granted one of them was against the Mets,
• 43:53
  Speaker 5: and you know Colorado just.
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: Hasn't really been hitting anywhere.
• 43:56
  Speaker 5: But still, he pitched okay in course field, and he
• 43:59
  Speaker 5: had another pretty good start shutting out Pittsburgh at home,
• 44:02
  Speaker 5: and they're a decent offense, so he's not pitching that badly.
• 44:05
  Speaker 4: But his strikeout rate is way down.
• 44:08
  Speaker 5: You know, Erod used to be more of a strikeout pitcher,
• 44:10
  Speaker 5: but with all of his injuries and his older age
• 44:14
  Speaker 5: now and whatever, he's having to find a different way
• 44:16
  Speaker 5: to pitch because he's not really a strikeout pitcher anymore.
• 44:18
  Speaker 5: Low strike out rate this year, but he hasn't allowed
• 44:20
  Speaker 5: many hits below one per inning, and his walk rate
• 44:23
  Speaker 5: is definitely too high, so he's got to get that
• 44:26
  Speaker 5: walk rate down, really, but it looks worse just because
• 44:30
  Speaker 5: his strikeout rate is not high against Colorado.
• 44:34
  Speaker 4: I think he has decent numbers against them. Yeah, they're
• 44:37
  Speaker 4: all right.
• 44:38
  Speaker 5: In eighty nine at bats, fifteen to three strikeout walk
• 44:40
  Speaker 5: ratio is good, two seventy batting average is a little high,
• 44:44
  Speaker 5: but six seventy six ops is not bad. So he
• 44:47
  Speaker 5: allows a lot of singles to them, not a lot
• 44:49
  Speaker 5: of power hitting to them, So his numbers don't really
• 44:52
  Speaker 5: look that bad either, So you know, on the surface,
• 44:55
  Speaker 5: it kind of looks over ish in this game. The
• 44:57
  Speaker 5: totals at nine, which is pretty high, but I don't
• 45:00
  Speaker 5: want to touch this game. Eighty three percent of tickets
• 45:03
  Speaker 5: on Arizona, fifty one percent of the catch on Colorado.
• 45:07
  Speaker 5: I mean, I could see the argument for it. Like
• 45:09
  Speaker 5: I said, I think Colorado is in a better situational
• 45:12
  Speaker 5: spot here. I wouldn't really want to back them, but
• 45:16
  Speaker 5: you know, I'm not gonna disagree with the Colorado opinion there.
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: Just because of that.
• 45:20
  Speaker 5: And I don't know that there's that significant of a
• 45:23
  Speaker 5: pitching edge here. I think Arizona does have a pitching
• 45:25
  Speaker 5: edge though, at least somewhat, but it's factored into the
• 45:29
  Speaker 5: number two. Arizona's around minus two hundred. I mean, that's
• 45:33
  Speaker 5: pretty absurd. You can get Colorado probably at a plus
• 45:36
  Speaker 5: one and a half run line basically playing it probably
• 45:40
  Speaker 5: around minus one ten like a spreadbat price probably, So
• 45:45
  Speaker 5: you know, I guess that might be my opinion in
• 45:47
  Speaker 5: that game is to go Colorado plus one and a half.
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: But I don't like it.
• 45:52
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, there's no way I'm gonna do that.
• 45:54
  Speaker 5: I think my favorite two opinions are overs in Toronto
• 45:57
  Speaker 5: and Yankees, and A's and anaheim A's Anaheim, I'd actually
• 46:00
  Speaker 5: be better than Toronto and Yankees. But yeah, I just
• 46:04
  Speaker 5: have some reservations about it, so I'm keeping those up
• 46:06
  Speaker 5: my card. I'm gonna be right back. And then I
• 46:09
  Speaker 5: have two plays. I'm gonna have a player in the
• 46:11
  Speaker 5: hockey game and in the NBA game.
• 46:13
  Speaker 4: I'll be right back.
• 46:14
  Speaker 5: We'll do those, and I've talked about w NBA rhyme
• 46:17
  Speaker 5: skipping that board, but I have an opinion that I
• 46:21
  Speaker 5: think is stronger than the other two in the w
• 46:23
  Speaker 5: NBA as well. I'll be right back, all right, WNBA.
• 47:38
  Speaker 5: Let me close some of these tabs here. Hopefully I
• 47:40
  Speaker 5: don't need to go back to baseball. A couple of
• 47:44
  Speaker 5: these games are on Amazon Prime, and there's a doubleheader
• 47:46
  Speaker 5: with the first and last games being on Amazon Prime,
• 47:51
  Speaker 5: which I believe my strongest opinion is in the non
• 47:54
  Speaker 5: prime game. But the first game is Golden State at
• 47:57
  Speaker 5: New York. Golden State. I think they're a little bit
• 47:59
  Speaker 5: under the radar here, man Like, they spend a lot
• 48:01
  Speaker 5: of money. As I keep pointing out, I think they're
• 48:03
  Speaker 5: one of the better teams in the league this year.
• 48:06
  Speaker 5: They did just lose at home to Chicago as a favorite,
• 48:09
  Speaker 5: I believe.
• 48:11
  Speaker 4: Yeah, they were five and a half point favorites. You know,
• 48:13
  Speaker 4: I talk about this when a.
• 48:14
  Speaker 5: Team loses as a favorite, I like to look for
• 48:18
  Speaker 5: them to bounce back in the next game. They've had
• 48:21
  Speaker 5: a week off, but now they're traveling. It's this is
• 48:24
  Speaker 5: gonna be their first time traveling to the East Coast
• 48:27
  Speaker 5: this year, so I don't necessarily love that. But having
• 48:30
  Speaker 5: all that time off in a bounce back spot, likely
• 48:33
  Speaker 5: they will be focused because they know they will because
• 48:36
  Speaker 5: they know New York is one of the best teams
• 48:38
  Speaker 5: in the league. So I think they will show up
• 48:41
  Speaker 5: for this. New York is returning from a road trip,
• 48:44
  Speaker 5: and you know, I don't like that. They've had like
• 48:46
  Speaker 5: a week off though, but you know, we faded a
• 48:49
  Speaker 5: team in a road trip return spot last night, although
• 48:51
  Speaker 5: I think it was in with less time off. Though,
• 48:55
  Speaker 5: with a week off, it's possible that they can get
• 48:57
  Speaker 5: stuff done at home and then they don't have to
• 48:58
  Speaker 5: worry about it and then they can focus on the game.
• 49:00
  Speaker 4: But I still don't love it. I never love a
• 49:03
  Speaker 4: return home spot.
• 49:04
  Speaker 5: So they were away from home for a bit, but
• 49:07
  Speaker 5: probably with a week off, they do start getting stuff
• 49:10
  Speaker 5: done and then it becomes less of a distraction. New
• 49:13
  Speaker 5: York has played a really really weak schedule so far.
• 49:15
  Speaker 4: Though they played Connecticut, Washington, and Portland twice.
• 49:19
  Speaker 5: Those are all very weak opponents pretty much, so they
• 49:22
  Speaker 5: are stepping up in class here. Golden State would be
• 49:25
  Speaker 5: the best team they've played so far, pretty much. That's
• 49:29
  Speaker 5: what I have to say about this. I like Golden
• 49:31
  Speaker 5: State in this one. They're getting the money, although it
• 49:34
  Speaker 5: looks like they're public as well. New York is a
• 49:36
  Speaker 5: seven and a half point favorite here eighty nine percent
• 49:39
  Speaker 5: of tickets ninety percent of the cash on the Valkyries, though,
• 49:43
  Speaker 5: that is the way I would look.
• 49:44
  Speaker 4: In that game.
• 49:45
  Speaker 5: I would take the points with Golden State. They did
• 49:48
  Speaker 5: well as an underdog for US last season. I had
• 49:51
  Speaker 5: multiple plays on Golden State as an underdog last year
• 49:53
  Speaker 5: and they performed really well. They won a lot of
• 49:56
  Speaker 5: those games outright, so they perform well as an underdog.
• 50:00
  Speaker 4: Typically, so that's good if you like that.
• 50:03
  Speaker 5: Toronto at Minnesota I think is my strongest opinion out
• 50:06
  Speaker 5: of the three. Minnesota did just lose at home to
• 50:09
  Speaker 5: Chicago as a favorite, so they're staying at home coming
• 50:13
  Speaker 5: off a home loss as a favorite. You know, I
• 50:16
  Speaker 5: like that. I like the bounce back off home loss
• 50:19
  Speaker 5: as a favorite. You dig into this box score. By
• 50:22
  Speaker 5: the way, Minnesota probably shouldn't have lost this game, Like
• 50:27
  Speaker 5: Chicago went to the line more than twice as much
• 50:30
  Speaker 5: as they did. Minnesota didn't shoot that well from the
• 50:34
  Speaker 5: line either, but Chicago was plus twelve from the free
• 50:38
  Speaker 5: throw line and Minnesota lost by nine.
• 50:41
  Speaker 4: So that was definitely something a factory into the game.
• 50:43
  Speaker 5: Man, Really, that was the big outlier in the game
• 50:46
  Speaker 5: some Minnesota. If there wasn't that big free throw disparity,
• 50:50
  Speaker 5: they might have won the game.
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: So that was really the big issue there.
• 50:53
  Speaker 5: The rebounding battle was pretty close, so Minnesota definitely could
• 50:56
  Speaker 5: have won that game. Although, yes, we have to take
• 50:59
  Speaker 5: into ac the Minnesota is still without Callie Or their
• 51:02
  Speaker 5: best player has been hurt since late last season. She's
• 51:05
  Speaker 5: supposed to come back within the next few weeks, but
• 51:08
  Speaker 5: she is not there yet. Toronto is Minnesota's opponent here.
• 51:12
  Speaker 5: They're an expansion team, but they've actually started three and two,
• 51:16
  Speaker 5: which is.
• 51:16
  Speaker 4: Pretty good, although they have not faced that difficult of
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: a schedule so far.
• 51:21
  Speaker 5: They're playing a fourth straight road game here, and they
• 51:24
  Speaker 5: just pulled off two straight road upsets almost three really well,
• 51:28
  Speaker 5: not really, because I think they were getting dominated by
• 51:31
  Speaker 5: LA in that first LA game for most of the game,
• 51:34
  Speaker 5: but they flipped it around and beat them out right
• 51:36
  Speaker 5: the next time as whatever it was eight point underdogs
• 51:39
  Speaker 5: or whatever, seven and a half point underdogs. Then they
• 51:41
  Speaker 5: turned around and did it again against Phoenix as an
• 51:45
  Speaker 5: underdog of around the same I think about eight in
• 51:47
  Speaker 5: that game. So they've pulled off two straight upsets as
• 51:50
  Speaker 5: pretty big underdogs. I think they're gonna be in a
• 51:54
  Speaker 5: letdown spot. I mean, my one concern is they might
• 51:56
  Speaker 5: still show up because Minnesota is considered to be one
• 51:59
  Speaker 5: of the best teams in the league, and they've been
• 52:02
  Speaker 5: right near the top for years and probably should have
• 52:04
  Speaker 5: won the championship two years ago. Last year, they had
• 52:07
  Speaker 5: a real shot at a two before Collier got injured,
• 52:11
  Speaker 5: although she is injured right now. But I like Minnesota
• 52:14
  Speaker 5: in this one. If you look at that Toronto game
• 52:16
  Speaker 5: against Phoenix, it was misleading. If you look at what
• 52:19
  Speaker 5: happened in this game, Toronto shot forty two percent from
• 52:22
  Speaker 5: three point range, Phoenix eighteen percent, So Toronto was plus
• 52:27
  Speaker 5: thirty three points from three point range and they only
• 52:31
  Speaker 5: won the game by eight, So that pretty much tells
• 52:33
  Speaker 5: you what you need to know. Toronto was clearly not
• 52:36
  Speaker 5: really the better team there. I mean, that was just
• 52:38
  Speaker 5: such an outlier fifteen to four from.
• 52:42
  Speaker 4: Three point range.
• 52:43
  Speaker 5: So yeah, literally, eleven more threes, thirty three more points
• 52:46
  Speaker 5: from beyond the arc. Nobody's gonna win a game when
• 52:49
  Speaker 5: they get when they're on the losing side of that.
• 52:52
  Speaker 5: Phoenix only shot eighteen percent, so that was kind of
• 52:55
  Speaker 5: lucky from Toronto's perspective. Toronto hit more threes than they
• 52:59
  Speaker 5: probably should have, although they did out rebound Phoenix, but
• 53:03
  Speaker 5: so we do have some outliers in both games there.
• 53:06
  Speaker 4: In Phoenix, by the way, led for more.
• 53:08
  Speaker 5: Of that game than Toronto did, so I think that's
• 53:11
  Speaker 5: a misleading result. So yes, I like Minnesota in this game.
• 53:14
  Speaker 5: I would lay the points in this one with Minnesota,
• 53:17
  Speaker 5: they're minus six and a half. If I was gonna
• 53:19
  Speaker 5: play any WNBA game.
• 53:21
  Speaker 4: Today, this is the one I would play.
• 53:22
  Speaker 5: I would lay the points with the links Toronto eighty
• 53:26
  Speaker 5: four percent of tickets, eighty eight percent of the cash
• 53:28
  Speaker 5: on them.
• 53:29
  Speaker 4: But I don't know.
• 53:30
  Speaker 5: To me, it looks like they're kind of a public side,
• 53:31
  Speaker 5: although you could make the same argument with Golden State,
• 53:34
  Speaker 5: but I do. I lean Golden State in that one,
• 53:36
  Speaker 5: like I said, but plus the points, but I like
• 53:39
  Speaker 5: Minnesota minus the points in this one. Then LA and
• 53:43
  Speaker 5: Phoenix is the last game on Prime. Phoenix just lost
• 53:47
  Speaker 5: to Toronto, so as I again I will point out, well,
• 53:51
  Speaker 5: here's the problem with this. Both teams are in the
• 53:53
  Speaker 5: same spot pretty much. Phoenix just lost at home as
• 53:56
  Speaker 5: an eight point favorite to Toronto two days ago, so
• 53:59
  Speaker 5: they should be in a bouncepot, right.
• 54:01
  Speaker 4: Well. LA just also lost as a home favorite to
• 54:05
  Speaker 4: Toronto four days ago, so LA is more rest here.
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: But both teams are in the same spot.
• 54:12
  Speaker 5: They both just lost at home to Toronto by pretty
• 54:15
  Speaker 5: much the same margin, and LA dominated Toronto in the
• 54:18
  Speaker 5: first game. But I think it was a little bit
• 54:21
  Speaker 5: of an outlier in both cases. So I think both
• 54:24
  Speaker 5: teams are in bounced back spots here. LA has a
• 54:27
  Speaker 5: little bit more rest. Phoenix is the better of the
• 54:29
  Speaker 5: two teams though, so I don't know what do we
• 54:33
  Speaker 5: want to do with this.
• 54:34
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 54:35
  Speaker 5: Phoenix is laying three and a half here. LA does
• 54:37
  Speaker 5: have a little bit of a rest edge here, seventy
• 54:39
  Speaker 5: per tickets, seventy three percent of the cash on Phoenix.
• 54:43
  Speaker 5: I don't have a good read on this game, so
• 54:46
  Speaker 5: this is the one that I have the least read
• 54:48
  Speaker 5: on as far as the side or whatever. I don't
• 54:49
  Speaker 5: really do totals really in any sport besides baseball, So
• 54:54
  Speaker 5: do with that info what you want. But I just
• 54:55
  Speaker 5: don't even really have a good opinion on that game.
• 54:58
  Speaker 5: The spot is just too similar for Bolt teams. NHL,
• 55:02
  Speaker 5: we're finally into the best bet segment and it is
• 55:05
  Speaker 5: the two games that have meaning here.
• 55:08
  Speaker 4: Let's do this NHL. We're gonna take the Montreal Canadians.
• 55:18
  Speaker 5: We're gonna do a split bet plus one and a
• 55:21
  Speaker 5: half puck line at minus one fifty and the rest
• 55:24
  Speaker 5: of it on the money line at plus one seventy.
• 55:27
  Speaker 5: I have the math worked out on this, so it is,
• 55:32
  Speaker 5: if you're playing to win one hundred, it's fifty five
• 55:35
  Speaker 5: to fifty five on the minus one fifty on the
• 55:38
  Speaker 5: puck line part of it, and then whatever that returns
• 55:41
  Speaker 5: you put that amount on the money line. So the
• 55:44
  Speaker 5: way that that works is if they lose by exactly one,
• 55:47
  Speaker 5: you will push your bet. And this came out to
• 55:49
  Speaker 5: a plus one aweight plus one puck lines. That's a
• 55:52
  Speaker 5: pretty good price. It's like playing the spread. But I
• 55:55
  Speaker 5: like this for a whole number of reasons. Man, we
• 55:58
  Speaker 5: talked about in the NBA the rest versus factor, like
• 56:01
  Speaker 5: if this team is off for more than a week,
• 56:03
  Speaker 5: is that gonna hurt their momentum and make them rusty?
• 56:06
  Speaker 4: And in a way, I think it did.
• 56:09
  Speaker 5: Okaysee, lost their game, the Knicks had even more of
• 56:12
  Speaker 5: a potential rust factor and they I know the Knicks
• 56:16
  Speaker 5: covered in the first game, but they were losing by
• 56:18
  Speaker 5: twenty two in the fourth quarter.
• 56:19
  Speaker 4: Man, so.
• 56:21
  Speaker 5: You know, probably they should I mean definitely they should
• 56:25
  Speaker 5: not have covered that number.
• 56:27
  Speaker 4: So I don't know.
• 56:28
  Speaker 5: I know that the stats said that the team with
• 56:31
  Speaker 5: the potential rust actually has done well in the NBA
• 56:34
  Speaker 5: against the spread, like with the Knicks covering I think
• 56:37
  Speaker 5: it's now twenty five and fourteen or something like that.
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: NHL, that's not really the case. Like I've looked it up.
• 56:44
  Speaker 4: In the NHL, the team that has the rust is
• 56:48
  Speaker 4: like almost fifty to fifty in the series.
• 56:51
  Speaker 5: I couldn't find the numbers on Game one, but I
• 56:54
  Speaker 5: would imagine they're actually not really that good, and that's
• 56:56
  Speaker 5: what we're doing here. We're fading Carolina because they've had
• 56:59
  Speaker 5: an unprecedented amount of time off. They haven't lost a
• 57:03
  Speaker 5: playoff game yet, so now after all that two sweeps,
• 57:08
  Speaker 5: eight and zero in the playoffs, now they haven't played
• 57:10
  Speaker 5: since Saturday, May ninth. They haven't played since before Mother's Day.
• 57:16
  Speaker 5: I mean, that is ridiculous, absolutely ridiculous.
• 57:19
  Speaker 4: I believe that.
• 57:21
  Speaker 5: There might have been only one other instance where a
• 57:24
  Speaker 5: team had this much time off during the NHL playoffs.
• 57:27
  Speaker 4: I think it was my Boston Bruins prior.
• 57:30
  Speaker 5: To the twenty nineteen Stanley Cup Finals, which they lost
• 57:34
  Speaker 5: the series though they should have won the series. Actually,
• 57:36
  Speaker 5: I don't do the Bruins win game one? Hold on,
• 57:40
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna look right now to see if the do
• 57:42
  Speaker 5: the Bruins lose Game one? Trying to find that right now,
• 57:50
  Speaker 5: I don't see game one.
• 57:53
  Speaker 4: Uh what the hell? Why can't I see that? I
• 57:58
  Speaker 4: just see series tied one one? What are we doing here? Sorry?
• 58:05
  Speaker 5: I'm trying to figure out did the Bruins win the
• 58:08
  Speaker 5: first game against Saint Louis or not?
• 58:12
  Speaker 4: They did?
• 58:12
  Speaker 5: Actually, the Bruins did win that game four to two,
• 58:15
  Speaker 5: But whatever, I'm still doing this here, man. I think Toronto,
• 58:20
  Speaker 5: I mean, excusan Carol Lyone having this much time off
• 58:23
  Speaker 5: is absolutely ridiculous. I think they're momentum could just be
• 58:25
  Speaker 5: completely stalled. And I see like interviewers are like.
• 58:28
  Speaker 4: Asking them about it, so I think that's gonna like
• 58:31
  Speaker 4: get in their heads a little bit, you know what
• 58:32
  Speaker 4: I mean. Whereas Montreal.
• 58:34
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I know, Montreal's gone through two seven game series
• 58:37
  Speaker 5: and you might think, well, that's bad, but hockey is
• 58:40
  Speaker 5: a different animal, dude, and they've had a little bit
• 58:42
  Speaker 5: of rest. They haven't played since Monday, so they've had
• 58:44
  Speaker 5: multiple days off. I know they have to travel. I
• 58:48
  Speaker 5: know on Saturday they were in Montreal, then on Monday
• 58:51
  Speaker 5: they went into Buffalo, which is not really that bad
• 58:54
  Speaker 5: of a travel situation really, But unlike in the NBA,
• 58:57
  Speaker 5: they've had more days off. They've had three days off,
• 59:00
  Speaker 5: and I think they still have their momentum, you know
• 59:01
  Speaker 5: what I mean. Montreal is just the team that's way
• 59:04
  Speaker 5: more used to playing in in, you know, tough situations
• 59:08
  Speaker 5: right now. Right like Carolina hasn't really faced much adversity
• 59:12
  Speaker 5: so far, Montreal's taken some losses during the playoffs.
• 59:15
  Speaker 4: They played two seven game series. Carolina is obviously the
• 59:18
  Speaker 4: way more experienced team here.
• 59:20
  Speaker 5: I think Carolina is going to wind up winning the series,
• 59:23
  Speaker 5: but I do not like them in this spot.
• 59:27
  Speaker 4: You know.
• 59:27
  Speaker 5: I think the RUSS is going to be real here,
• 59:29
  Speaker 5: and I think Montreal's momentum is going to be there.
• 59:33
  Speaker 5: Although I don't like the fact that Buffalo did outplay
• 59:35
  Speaker 5: them in that last game. So that's one negative, uh,
• 59:38
  Speaker 5: Buffalo statistically beat.
• 59:40
  Speaker 4: Montreal in that game.
• 59:41
  Speaker 5: And the other negative, again is Montreal's very young and
• 59:44
  Speaker 5: an experience and Carolina has been here repeatedly.
• 59:48
  Speaker 4: But I think that will factor.
• 59:50
  Speaker 5: Into the series, you know, for the remainder of the series.
• 59:52
  Speaker 5: But this is a spot that's you know, we really
• 59:56
  Speaker 5: haven't seen a team with this much rest for quite
• 59:59
  Speaker 5: a while, and I think it's too much rests, Like,
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 5: I think Carolina is gonna come out a little bit
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 5: slow in this one. This game's on TNT, True TV
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 5: and HBO Max. Of course, we do have to look
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 5: at you know, what are the team's road records home records.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 4: Carolina was good at home.
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 5: They were good on the road and at home, but
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 5: Montreal was a pretty good road team as well. And
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 5: we know Montreal has been really good on the road
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 5: during the playoffs. In fact, they're five and two as
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 5: a road team in the playoffs so far. Yes, Carolina
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 5: will be the best team they faced so far in
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 5: the playoffs, but Tampa Bay is not that much worse
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 5: than Carolina and Montreal did play them, so they're battle
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 5: tested in that regardle though Carolina is a different animal.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 4: I know Timpa Bay is a little bit more of
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 4: a finesse type of team.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 5: Carolina's more physical defense, that type of thing, which I
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 5: think is gonna beat Montreal.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 4: Up as the sea as the series goes on.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 5: But again, Montreal's five and two on the road, dude,
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 5: they've been a good road team, and to push this,
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 5: we're just asking them to lose by one. We need
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 5: to avoid the shitty empty net situations here, of course,
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 5: which you.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 4: Know, you know that's gonna happen.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 5: We're gonna lose four to two on an empty net
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 5: goal and I'm just gonna be fucking pissed that's what's
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 5: gonna happen.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 4: Uh.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 5: But no, I like this. I think Carolina is gonna
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 5: come out slow. Maybe they will start playing better over
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 5: the course of the game. If you wanted to go
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 5: with like a you know, like a first period Montreal play.
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 5: That makes sense as well. We have And yes, I
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 5: know Carolina is four and zero at home. Uh, but
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 5: they've won two of those four games by one goal
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 5: and one of them by two. So Carolina, yeah, they've
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 5: they've won all their home games, but some of them
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 5: have been close.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 4: But hockey is a close game.
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 5: Nine tickets, eighty seven percent of the cash on Carolina,
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 5: So the money looks like it is agreeing with me
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 5: in leaning towards Montreal here. Carolina is a very public side.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 5: Here under is getting some action as well. Eighty nine
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 5: percent of tickets, ninety one percent of the cash on
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 5: the under. I don't disagree with it, but of course,
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 5: again you could get fucked with like these empty net goals,
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 5: Like in the Western Conference game last night, there was
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 5: an empty net goal towards the end, right at the
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 5: end of that game that really I think it pushed
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 5: the number.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 4: I think it was a six total in that game
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 4: last night, and it landed six because of an empty
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 4: net or and that game was pretty clearly an under game.
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 5: So yeah, that sucked if you had the under in
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 5: that one. At least it wasn't a loser. I guess
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 5: this total is around six, you know, six juiced to
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 5: the under at minus one twenty. But I would not
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 5: disagree with an under here. Carolina plays a lot of
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 5: understyle games, and they could be really, really rusty, so
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 5: their offense might be bad early on, and the rest
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 5: helps the deepense a bit more. So I don't disagree
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 5: under in that one. But hockey unders just all get
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 5: killed by empty net empty net goals, all right? And
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 5: then we have the NBA. You've heard me talk about
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 5: this game already, so I think you probably know what
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 5: I'm doing here. The line's already gone up a little bit.
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 5: But we're gonna lay the points with the Knicks. I
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 5: think this series is over. I'm gonna be honest. I
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 5: think the Knicks are gonna win this. I think this
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 5: is gonna look like one of those games where the
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 5: Knicks put up like one hundred and thirty points or
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 5: whatever and they win the game like unbelievably easily. That's
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 5: what I think is gonna happen in this game. I
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 5: don't want to necessarily call for it, but we're laying
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 5: the points with the Knicks. This series is done, man,
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 5: We know Cleveland hasn't been good on the road during
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 5: the playoffs. I know they won two road games at
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 5: the end of that Detroit series, but then they lost
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 5: the first road game in.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 4: This series, and now they're whatever it is they were.
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 5: I'm trying to let me I'm trying to think they
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 5: lost all three road games in the Toronto series. I'm
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 5: trying to think out loud now, so they own three.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 5: They lost the first two in the Detroit series, then
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 5: they won the last two. So they're two and six
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 5: on the road, both straight up and against the spread.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure during the playoffs Cleveland two and six,
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 5: So that's not good. The Knicks are a good home team,
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 5: I think the Knicks. I don't even know how many
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 5: losses the Knicks have at home during the playoffs.
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 4: I think maybe one.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 5: I think they lost once at home to Atlanta, and
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 5: I think it was kind of a weird outlier of
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 5: a game as well. The Knicks also had a really
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 5: good home record during the regular season. If Cleveland goes
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 5: down two, maybe you do play Cleveland back at home
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 5: because they've been a better home team throughout the playoffs,
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 5: and then Knicks weren't that good on the road at
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 5: all during the regular season, so that might be the
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 5: spot to play. Cleveland is down two like a last gas,
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 5: but I don't see how Cleveland gets back up off
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 5: off the mat here. Man, the Knicks are getting the
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 5: money fifty three percent of tickets, seventy seven percent of
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 5: the cash on them. The line is basically where it
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 5: was in the other game. So the line is pretty
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 5: much the same. But we saw what happened in that game, Like, yeah,
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 5: the Knicks cover, they won by eleven, but they were
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 5: losing the game by twenty two in the fourth quarter. Man,
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 5: Cleveland had the game. So I just I think this
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 5: is a spot where when a team almost pulls off
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 5: an upset like that, I think it's a major.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 4: Flat spot in the next game.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 5: And I know this is the playoffs, but like playoffs,
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 5: so what can you do? Man, The Knicks came into
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 5: that game with rust, like I said, so, I think
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 5: the Knicks were definitely rust even though they did have
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 5: a lead early in the game. I think the rust
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 5: was real in that game, and the Knicks got a
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 5: real scare and you can kind of explain why. And
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 5: you know what I always say, when a team almost
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 5: pulls off an upset as an underdog, A lot of
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 5: times they come out flat in the next game because
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 5: it's like they put in that huge.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 4: Effort just to lose. And the way they lost.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 5: Is like unbelievably brutal, Like that will rip your heart out.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 5: You have a twenty two point lead with six minutes
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 5: left and you blow that. I don't know if there's
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 5: any coming back from that. Man, Like, I think Cleveland
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 5: might win Game three and then the series might be
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 5: over in five. Man, I think that was a death blow.
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 5: Like that was just ridiculous.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 4: They had nothing left by the end of that.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 5: The Knicks wound up outscoring them thirty nine to eight
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 5: over the final six minutes of regulation plus overtime.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 4: Absolutely ridiculous.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 5: And the Knicks might focus because remember they came into
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 5: that game with a lot of time off, so they
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 5: were I think rusty. Now Cleveland gave them a real scare,
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 5: So I think the Knicks are gonna be the team
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 5: and make the adjustments. And if we look at the
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 5: box score here, the really glaring thing here is Cleveland
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 5: was plus eighteen from three point range. They hit six
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 5: more threes in the game, and they still lost by eleven.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 5: That is not a good sign. If you hit six
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 5: more threes than your opponent and you still lose by
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 5: double digits, that's bad. The Knicks did go to the
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 5: line more, that's true, but that wasn't that much of
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 5: a disparity. They were plus five from the free throw line.
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 5: The Knicks won the rebounding battles, so they were better
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 5: in the paint, which is also part of the reason
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 5: why they were drawing fouls.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 4: The Knicks are just better in the paint.
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 5: Cleveland does not do a good job at defending the perimeter.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 5: James Harden can't defend it at all. You saw that,
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 5: Like he was one of the main reasons they lost.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 5: He's too old, He's getting tired now after an overtime game,
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 5: He's probably gonna be even more tired on a quick turnaround.
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 5: I just don't see Cleveland's deepfense being good at all, man,
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 5: I think the deepfenses can kind of falter a bit
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 5: in Game two, especially after an overtime game, which, by
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 5: the way, I told you over was probably gonna hit
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 5: in that game last night. You know, like I should
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 5: have had a stronger opinion on that, Like I wound
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 5: up landing on the over as an opinion in that
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 5: San Antonio Okay see game along with leaning Okac.
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 4: They both covered, but the over was really really easy.
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 5: The game went way over and again I think this
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 5: is a similar situation in this game. I like the
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 5: over as well in this game because again, these teams just.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 4: Went to overtime, quick turnaround time.
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 5: The depenses can be a lot less intense when they're
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 5: you know, not rested, so I think that's also a
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 5: factor here as well. I think that definitely factored into
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 5: the game last night was San Antonio and Oklahoma City.
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 4: But yeah, those are my thoughts here.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 5: And the Knicks are the better team and the paint dude,
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 5: remounting is usually a big indicator of who was the
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 5: better team in the game. And yeah, after that scare,
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 5: I think the Knicks are going to absolutely take Cleveland. Seriously,
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 5: this is not a zigzag spot like normally you'd say, oh,
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 5: Cleveland lost by double digits. This should be a bounce
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 5: back spot, right, like Cleveland should have the adjustments to make.
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 4: No. Uh, the Knicks were losing the game by twenty two.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 5: With six minutes left, dude, Uh, so they absolutely were
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 5: Like they came back from the dead in that game.
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 5: There's no way they should have won that game, or
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 5: no way Cleveland should have blown the game. But yeah,
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 5: Harden is a defensive liability.
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 4: He's too old.
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 5: Now he's a turnover machine. That's gonna be a problem.
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 5: I think this is not a great matchup for Cleveland.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 5: You know, that's just the way that it is. And again,
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 5: the Knicks were good at home too during the regular
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 5: season thirty and ten, So we're gonna lay the points.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 4: With the Knicks.
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 5: I think they win easily in this game. The money's
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 5: hitting the under, which I don't really agree with. The
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 5: total did go up to two sixteen and a half
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 5: or two sixteen sixty nine percent of tickets seventy nine
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash on the under, I don't believe
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 5: I agree with that. I know the first game went
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 5: into overtime, which is I think what put the game over,
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 5: because it landed to nineteen in that one, including overtime,
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 5: and the total was two seventeen and a half. So
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 5: if you had the under, you gotta be really really
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 5: pissed in that one because Cleveland up twenty two, Like,
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 5: there's no chance that game is going into overtime, you know, unbelievable.
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 5: It went into overtime and then the game went over
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 5: by one and a half. But the total is not
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 5: really much lower. I mean the total is a little
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 5: bit lower.
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 4: Excuse me.
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 5: This total open two fourteen and a half. It's gone
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 5: up to two sixteen and a half now, but it's
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 5: still or to sixteen. It's still a point lower than
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 5: it was in game one. So I lean over in
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 5: this game as well, but I like the points better.
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 4: I'm laying the points because I'm not really much of
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 4: a totals guy. And that's gonna do it.
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 5: Man, two plays today we're going to the playoffs Montreal
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 5: Canadian split bet partially on the puck line, partially on
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 5: the money line, and we were laying the points of
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 5: the Knicks. Make sure you lay below seven on this, man,
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 5: because it might get to seven. But yeah, I would
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 5: want to get a below seven because seven is a
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 5: key number in basketball. It's when teams stop intentionally following.
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 5: Uh So that's what I'm gonna do. That's gonna do it.
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 5: Learn a toad on Twitter. You can help me out,
• 1:10:16
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• 1:10:20
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• 1:10:22
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• 1:10:26
  Speaker 5: streak going, man, hopefully we can. We're gonna try to
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 5: keep it going. Tell everybody about it. Get more subscribers here.
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 5: Listen on audio review on audio that helps me out
• 1:10:37
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• 1:10:40
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• 1:10:41
  Speaker 4: You can check that out. Payge round Dot Conversation, Learn
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 4: to Toad.
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 5: You get some bonus content there, Loser Cast every Tuesday night,
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 5: and the Giants g Spot podcast as well, which we're
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 5: not gonna be doing anything right now because I'm co
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 5: host Ben Is at the lame Libertarian Convention in horrendous
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 5: Grand Rapids, Michigan. I don't think there's a lot of
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 5: fun going on there. As I used to be a
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 5: beer guy and that would be fun because Grand Rapids
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 5: is a huge brewery city. But being a sober man now,
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 5: I think there's nothing to really like about Grand Rapids,
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 5: you know, just dull and dreary Michigan. My apologies for
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 5: anybody that lives there. All right, that's gonna do it.
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 4: Peace, Happy Thursday, everyone, But.
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: Don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the flow.
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: Your name still means something to somebody for show. Put
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 3: No hold on, hold on nothing, no hold on, hold on.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: Let me pull.
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 3: That bites hard, but I don't.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: Get the crown. Hold on, hold on and stay with
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: me now