Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Divisional Round

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The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Divisional Round · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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Speaker 1: six seven, three six nine in New York, one five
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Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome
1:22
Speaker 1: to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
1:27
Speaker 1: I am Chad Moman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
1:32
Speaker 1: It is Thursday when we are recording. We are live
1:35
Speaker 1: on app. Welcome to those listeners. I am joined as
1:39
Speaker 1: I am every episode by my co host, my companion,
1:43
Speaker 1: my bff, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon,
1:53
Speaker 1: we just got to spend lovely few days together in
1:57
Speaker 1: New York. The last podcast we recorded live in our
2:01
Speaker 1: new Action Network studio. Now we were both back home
2:06
Speaker 1: getting ready to light it up. I don't know about you, Chad,
2:10
Speaker 1: but I'm of those people that I think it's because
2:12
Speaker 1: I've seen so many movies. The main reason I hate
2:15
Speaker 1: going to New York. I swear every time I go there,
2:17
Speaker 1: the zombie Apocalypse is gonna happen, or either the Aliens
2:19
Speaker 1: are gonna land and I'm gonna be stuck in a
2:21
Speaker 1: city with nine million people in no way out and
2:25
Speaker 1: luckily that didnt happen. Cheat I got a little cold,
2:27
Speaker 1: that's the only thing negative. But the rest of the trip,
2:29
Speaker 1: he said, Chad was a good time. It was funny
2:32
Speaker 1: around the action, people talking football. But I'm not gonna
2:35
Speaker 1: lie to you. As soon as I got on that
2:36
Speaker 1: train and got out of the city, I was just like, ah,
2:39
Speaker 1: I survived. I survived at New York City just because
2:42
Speaker 1: it does cheer you up and spit you out if
2:44
Speaker 1: you're just working NonStop. But it was one of those
2:46
Speaker 1: where there is a definite vibe to the city. I
2:50
Speaker 1: think you mean you both agree on that if you've
2:51
Speaker 1: never been in New York City, not that it makes
2:54
Speaker 1: you feel a certain way, but it kind of does,
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Speaker 1: like it makes you feel more alive and more connect
3:00
Speaker 1: and it's just so many people, and it's one of
3:01
Speaker 1: those where if you're not there, you appreciate New York City,
3:04
Speaker 1: but if you're there for more than four days, it
3:05
Speaker 1: starts getting old pretty quick. So uh, definitely enjoyed our
3:08
Speaker 1: time together. Brother. That's a really interesting perspective. I feel
3:12
Speaker 1: all those same things as someone who lived in Manhattan
3:17
Speaker 1: for twelve years and lived just outside the city for
3:21
Speaker 1: six years and commuted into the city on a regular basis. Um,
3:26
Speaker 1: when I lived in the city and we were about
3:28
Speaker 1: to move out, this is this is you know, dark thoughts.
3:33
Speaker 1: But we were living on the Upper east Side. I
3:35
Speaker 1: would take the six train from the Upper east Side
3:38
Speaker 1: to thirty four Street to go to my office at ESPN,
3:40
Speaker 1: the magazine. So it's only six stops on the subway. Um.
3:45
Speaker 1: In the last thirty days this was two thousand five,
3:47
Speaker 1: and the last thirty days before we moved from Manhattan
3:51
Speaker 1: to Montclair, New Jersey. We had a three year old
3:54
Speaker 1: at the time. I would say to myself, please let
3:59
Speaker 1: this not be the day where the city blows up,
4:02
Speaker 1: and don't forget this is four years after nine eleven.
4:05
Speaker 1: So like you were always sort of feeling a little
4:07
Speaker 1: bit of that anxiety. And it's funny my wife and
4:10
Speaker 1: I now were old and we live in Connecticut, and
4:14
Speaker 1: like our kids are nineteen in college and sixteen and
4:17
Speaker 1: two and a half years away from leaving, and so
4:19
Speaker 1: we think, like, she's from Manhattan, she's from New York, right,
4:22
Speaker 1: she grew up in Staten Island. She loves the city,
4:24
Speaker 1: and and we always think when we go to visit,
4:28
Speaker 1: we want to move back here, we want to get
4:30
Speaker 1: an apartment here. Whatever, we always settle on note which
4:34
Speaker 1: is odd. First for my wife, who is New York
4:37
Speaker 1: to the core and she's an architect, Like she went
4:41
Speaker 1: to she went to grad school in the city. She
4:44
Speaker 1: went to Parsons like where we were where you know,
4:47
Speaker 1: I stayed in Union Square, Like I was a block
4:50
Speaker 1: from where she went to grad school. Um, so I
4:53
Speaker 1: know that area. Well, we were always down there, and I, Um,
4:58
Speaker 1: we now think like we couldn't live here. We would
5:01
Speaker 1: be too afraid, Like if the apocalypse came, how wouldn't
5:05
Speaker 1: we get out? Yeah, I thought, But I also I thought,
5:09
Speaker 1: not that things change because of code. I lived in
5:11
Speaker 1: the city when I used to worked back in the day,
5:13
Speaker 1: and I used to hate it because just driving the
5:14
Speaker 1: city is really tough. Um. The biggest change I noticed
5:18
Speaker 1: since COVID, though, is because we had early mornings for work.
5:21
Speaker 1: We're getting up at six seven in the morning. How
5:23
Speaker 1: empty the streets were were it used to be back
5:26
Speaker 1: in the day, there was always something going on. It
5:27
Speaker 1: didn't matter if it was six or seven am. To
5:29
Speaker 1: other people at seven six pm, right, that's just doesn't
5:32
Speaker 1: matter that it's that time. I couldn't believe early quiet.
5:35
Speaker 1: It was when you're getting up early in the morning,
5:37
Speaker 1: which I see is the coolest time. Do you see
5:39
Speaker 1: the city if you're an earlier riser. That's my recommendation
5:41
Speaker 1: from New York City. I I'm not a big jogger,
5:45
Speaker 1: but as you know, I'm an obsessive exerciser, and that
5:49
Speaker 1: you're gonna live forever. I'm gonna live forever. The only
5:51
Speaker 1: time I go for runs is in New York because
5:53
Speaker 1: I go really early in the morning when it's empty,
5:55
Speaker 1: and it's fantastic. Yeah, that's true, and you're not wrong.
5:58
Speaker 1: Like you can walk around New York and when things
6:00
Speaker 1: are going well and we had a great weekend, it
6:03
Speaker 1: was super fun. You can feel invincible, you can feel
6:06
Speaker 1: the energy. You can feel like I'm making it in
6:08
Speaker 1: New York City. And then when it's going bad, like
6:11
Speaker 1: when things are negative, it eats of you because you
6:12
Speaker 1: just see all the negativeness of New York City, like
6:15
Speaker 1: guys being on the corner. There's trash everywhere. It's the
6:18
Speaker 1: smell of the air. But like Chatty said, when you're
6:20
Speaker 1: feeling good air, it's crisp, it's beautiful, the lights, everything
6:24
Speaker 1: it was. Uh so it was a great weekend. Matt
6:28
Speaker 1: Mitchell was there obviously, Yeah, he was an astounding presence.
6:33
Speaker 1: Um watching Matt Mitchell as we discussed suffer that that
6:37
Speaker 1: that Cowboys books under bet all right, So Tuesday we
6:42
Speaker 1: decided Simon says it was Niners Dallas under forty six
6:46
Speaker 1: and a half. I believe, um Foxhel I left my
6:49
Speaker 1: notes in New York, so I'm trying to do this
6:51
Speaker 1: from memory. Foxhole was Bills minus four and a half.
6:53
Speaker 1: Exact decision was Chief Jags under the time you could
6:57
Speaker 1: get it at fifty two or fifty three. It's now
6:59
Speaker 1: settle the fifty three. Um, we're gonna come up with
7:04
Speaker 1: the big balls. We're gonna talk a little bit more
7:05
Speaker 1: in depth now that lines have been moving and we've
7:07
Speaker 1: been seeing more stuff about sides and totals. Before we
7:12
Speaker 1: get to any of that, let's do some Oh wait,
7:16
Speaker 1: I do want to tell people that if you're listening
7:20
Speaker 1: to the podcast right now, if you subscribe to the
7:24
Speaker 1: we know we've gotten a lot of complaints this year
7:26
Speaker 1: about not being able to access the podcast until really
7:30
Speaker 1: late at night, even though we record it in the afternoons. UM,
7:35
Speaker 1: there's been a change in programming. If you subscribe directly
7:38
Speaker 1: to the Favorites to subscribe directly to the Favorite feed,
7:43
Speaker 1: you'll be able to get the podcast late afternoon of
7:47
Speaker 1: the day, recorded probably five six instead of having to
7:50
Speaker 1: wait until eleven or twelve at night. UM, subscribe directly
7:53
Speaker 1: to the Favorites and you'll get the podcast, you know,
7:56
Speaker 1: five six, seven hours early. So we're doing that for
7:59
Speaker 1: all the playoffs on Yeah, is that right, Matt Mitchell?
8:02
Speaker 1: Every episode moving forward will be available right about five
8:06
Speaker 1: thirty pm Eastern time if you subscribe to the Favorites feed.
8:10
Speaker 1: You've got to subscribe to the Favorite feed before we
8:13
Speaker 1: get to anything else. Let's get too sharp. Call hello,
8:21
Speaker 1: who's there? I'm talking telephone right. Somebody said, I'm interested
8:31
Speaker 1: in this one man. Every game feel, every side and
8:34
Speaker 1: every every total feels like it could have a strong opinion.
8:37
Speaker 1: We were talking before we got in the air. Giants
8:39
Speaker 1: Eagles very much feels that way. But tell me who
8:43
Speaker 1: we've been, who's been calling us about what? Let's start
8:45
Speaker 1: off right off with the bad one, because to me,
8:46
Speaker 1: that's that's the biggest pro verse Pro game this this week,
8:51
Speaker 1: is that Giants Eagles game where you have pros who
8:54
Speaker 1: have made a lot of money back in this Giant's team.
8:57
Speaker 1: It's a team they believed in the summer. It's the
8:59
Speaker 1: co staff, they believe in the summer. They hit gold,
9:03
Speaker 1: they be They bet them all year, um, even last week.
9:08
Speaker 1: Not that it was one of the biggest bets. We
9:10
Speaker 1: just knew. Guys were staunching their ways where it's like, Okay,
9:12
Speaker 1: you're catching three against an in Fury Vikings team, this
9:15
Speaker 1: is the spot to take it. They didn't care. That
9:16
Speaker 1: was Daniel Jones right first career starting the playoffs. So,
9:20
Speaker 1: I mean Chad talked to that, Like I my first
9:23
Speaker 1: instincts just says a better was to take that Giant
9:25
Speaker 1: seven seven and a a half in the line opened um,
9:28
Speaker 1: and I just knew something was a little off about it.
9:30
Speaker 1: Died more into the numbers, and obviously there's a huge
9:32
Speaker 1: advantage towards this Eagles team, which we'll talk about we
9:34
Speaker 1: start talking about that game. But just from the pro aspect,
9:38
Speaker 1: I completely got there coming from Chad. I mean, Evan
9:41
Speaker 1: Abrams puts out that's something I need to readtweet now.
9:44
Speaker 1: I'll put it out when we put the show out.
9:45
Speaker 1: It's just a trend article about all the trends this week.
9:49
Speaker 1: I mean, well, maybe you have some red down have
9:51
Speaker 1: covered down all these trends favored this Giants team. So yeah,
9:56
Speaker 1: a lot of pro bettors. I know they throw their
9:58
Speaker 1: model out because you already talked about your modele. It's
10:01
Speaker 1: not as valuable as during the regular season come playoff time,
10:03
Speaker 1: because the playoffs it's just a different beast. I used
10:06
Speaker 1: to talk about the time when Brady was at such
10:07
Speaker 1: an elite level. My model never caught up to Tom Brady.
10:11
Speaker 1: It was one of those where it couldn't take into
10:12
Speaker 1: account what he does and what makes him so special,
10:15
Speaker 1: which is clutch us. There's no like we have luck rankings.
10:18
Speaker 1: I don't have a clutch ranking that doesn't that doesn't
10:20
Speaker 1: exist for me. That's something I always had a factor
10:22
Speaker 1: in myself. So I don't always fade my model, but
10:25
Speaker 1: I do in the playoffs where I got a bunch
10:28
Speaker 1: of guys are lined up on one side and my
10:30
Speaker 1: model just seems off. I'll agree with these guys because
10:32
Speaker 1: they're just smarter than me. I know that, like they
10:34
Speaker 1: is no more about football than I do. This is
10:36
Speaker 1: one of those inst instances like a couple of really
10:39
Speaker 1: smart groups have come in on the Eagles and that's
10:41
Speaker 1: what driving this number rough. And I even texted Chat
10:43
Speaker 1: like we talked yesterday. I didn't get it. I thought
10:46
Speaker 1: by today's show we'd have a seven. I really did,
10:49
Speaker 1: because I know how many smart people are on the Giants,
10:51
Speaker 1: uh sharp wise, I know how much the public loves it,
10:53
Speaker 1: like this is a public darling in this line. So yeah,
10:57
Speaker 1: well we'll talk about that game. But if people it's
10:59
Speaker 1: just like the Seahawks last week, they want to know
11:01
Speaker 1: me and chat. We were on the fourt inands last week.
11:04
Speaker 1: Most of the pros were on the Seahawks. It's the
11:06
Speaker 1: same exact situation, and you're catching over seven a half
11:09
Speaker 1: on a divisional dog. Um they already got swept during
11:13
Speaker 1: the regular season, which again trends back up taking the
11:15
Speaker 1: Giants in the spot, um being a divisional dog when
11:18
Speaker 1: the touchdown that got swept in the regular season. So
11:22
Speaker 1: n chead, it's it's one of those where I knew
11:25
Speaker 1: we're gonna get calls about it, and it's one of
11:27
Speaker 1: those that I I'm trying as hard as I cannot
11:30
Speaker 1: to make it one of my bigger bets of the playoffs,
11:32
Speaker 1: because I just love the spot. The more I look
11:34
Speaker 1: at this Eagles team, they're just crazy under value for
11:37
Speaker 1: how good their offensive scheme is and their offensive line
11:40
Speaker 1: is going against the Giants defense that is playing way
11:42
Speaker 1: above its head. But they're about to run into what
11:45
Speaker 1: I view was a juggernaut. So sharp calls start off
11:48
Speaker 1: right with that one. Every other one we're kind of back.
11:50
Speaker 1: Yet everyone likes our picks. Honestly, the pros are on
11:53
Speaker 1: the Jaguars with us no shock that they have the
11:56
Speaker 1: exact They can look at the xact same stuff we're
11:57
Speaker 1: looking at. Of Jaguars will always been about the Chiefs
12:00
Speaker 1: will always be overvalid by the public. The biggest thing
12:03
Speaker 1: is because everyone of their grandma's gonna tease this Chiefs
12:05
Speaker 1: team like them and the Eagles. That two teams cheeser
12:07
Speaker 1: that's just gonna be there. So this Nember should be
12:09
Speaker 1: closer to seven and a half. They're they're bumping eight
12:12
Speaker 1: a half just to protect this against teasers. It's a
12:14
Speaker 1: two and a half in a teaser. We've seen some
12:16
Speaker 1: books touch nine, so obviously there are some pros coming
12:19
Speaker 1: in on this Chiefs team. If you didn't graduate and
12:22
Speaker 1: a half, which I I would just be safe. I
12:25
Speaker 1: do think it might be able to touch nine by
12:27
Speaker 1: this weekend, just because I do think the public will
12:30
Speaker 1: come in heavy on the Chiefs team. It's just it's
12:32
Speaker 1: not that I feel like it's looking very chalky this
12:34
Speaker 1: uh the next this round, but it does feel that
12:37
Speaker 1: way a little bit where they f C. I mean,
12:39
Speaker 1: Chad we already talked about me and they were both
12:41
Speaker 1: on the bills. We like the Jacks. Obviously I'm gonna
12:43
Speaker 1: take the Jags money line as well, just because a
12:46
Speaker 1: historical data backs up in this divisional round. If you
12:48
Speaker 1: take like anyone taking the Giants, you have to throw
12:51
Speaker 1: someone the money line. If you're back in the dog,
12:53
Speaker 1: you might as well throw some division on the money
12:55
Speaker 1: line because the return on investment of that I don't
12:58
Speaker 1: even know. I think it was the last twenty years
12:59
Speaker 1: I saw on thatent labs. It was like, you bet
13:02
Speaker 1: a hunter up twenty two k on these divisional dogs
13:05
Speaker 1: taking this number. So that's one of those where regular season, right,
13:09
Speaker 1: me and Chad talked about we start weeding off taking
13:11
Speaker 1: big putting big money on underdogs money lines just because
13:13
Speaker 1: it wasn't hitting playoffs. You kind of throw that out.
13:15
Speaker 1: You're looking at the trends. You don't really worry about
13:17
Speaker 1: what happened during the regular season with that stuff. So
13:20
Speaker 1: um again, if you like the Jags like we do,
13:22
Speaker 1: taking the number, taking the money line, um, let me
13:26
Speaker 1: let me speak to one trend um since you brought
13:29
Speaker 1: up the trends, and it applies to both the Jags
13:32
Speaker 1: and the Giants. Number one seeds and one against the
13:37
Speaker 1: spread the past twenty years in this round when those
13:41
Speaker 1: seeds are favored by less than ten points eight and
13:46
Speaker 1: one against the spread. So we got big favorites in
13:51
Speaker 1: the Eagles, and we got big favorites in the Chiefs,
13:55
Speaker 1: and it's very possible we may be split. And that's
13:58
Speaker 1: teams with above and eight percent winning percentage, right, no, no,
14:01
Speaker 1: this is just it, okay. And so it's even worse too,
14:05
Speaker 1: teams above teams with above winning percentage, which would be
14:08
Speaker 1: the forty niners, the Bills, um, the Eagles and the Chiefs.
14:13
Speaker 1: It's even worse where it's like it's the same thing.
14:16
Speaker 1: It's like those favorites covered and when they're less than
14:19
Speaker 1: ten point favorite. So that's one of those like I'll
14:24
Speaker 1: keep it moving that the sharp calls were the Cowboys.
14:27
Speaker 1: I didn't want to do it. I want to be
14:29
Speaker 1: I want to be on the forty Niners. I just
14:31
Speaker 1: I just know really smart guys, really smart money. So
14:34
Speaker 1: that's the game will break down that are on the Cowboys,
14:36
Speaker 1: So that's another one will break down. And same with
14:38
Speaker 1: the Bills. We gave it out of four four and
14:40
Speaker 1: a half. You've seen it, you've seen him steam up,
14:42
Speaker 1: and no out of five five and a half. If
14:43
Speaker 1: you're a Sinci backer, it's a dead zone number. Where
14:47
Speaker 1: the Bills it's not. If you're a Bill's backer, you
14:49
Speaker 1: still want to grab the five ma half just in
14:50
Speaker 1: case it does hit that six, which means you had
14:52
Speaker 1: to talk all the time. That's six. It hits at
14:55
Speaker 1: whatever said, it's only just a one percent more chance
14:58
Speaker 1: than hitting the five. At the five, that's still a
15:00
Speaker 1: big deal long term betting. So to me, five and
15:03
Speaker 1: a half has become a very key number. Keep being
15:05
Speaker 1: under the six. Um, we talk all the time, the
15:07
Speaker 1: extra points two point conversion. Six just lands at a
15:10
Speaker 1: higher rate than they used to. So to me, if
15:12
Speaker 1: you're a Bill's backer, yeah, it would suck if it
15:15
Speaker 1: drops down a four and a before kickoff. No one
15:17
Speaker 1: can predict that. I grabbed the five half just in
15:19
Speaker 1: case it does hit the six, where once hit the six,
15:22
Speaker 1: you're you're kind of just leaving yourself up into a push,
15:25
Speaker 1: which I hate so um to me, the pros they
15:28
Speaker 1: already grabbed it. I don't really think it might go
15:30
Speaker 1: up that much because most sharp guys I talked to
15:33
Speaker 1: they grabbed the four. They grabbed the four and a half.
15:35
Speaker 1: And what they had done is they grabbed since he
15:36
Speaker 1: early in the week at six and a half, so
15:38
Speaker 1: they were like, Okay, I'll try to play a middle now.
15:40
Speaker 1: It seems like the Bills will be one of their
15:42
Speaker 1: bigger bets. I think everyone's looking at the model and
15:45
Speaker 1: seeing how big of big of a deal these injuries are. Um,
15:48
Speaker 1: I believe it's both tackles and and a guard out
15:51
Speaker 1: for since I'm not positive it could be their center,
15:53
Speaker 1: but I believe it's the guard that got injured last week.
15:56
Speaker 1: So we we talk all the time. I'mportant offensive line
16:00
Speaker 1: is it's it's so it's so important come playoff time
16:04
Speaker 1: scheme wise too. So uh yeah, excited to break down
16:07
Speaker 1: these four games. I was just I knew we were
16:11
Speaker 1: getting the same side of all the pros. I'm just
16:13
Speaker 1: shocked that so many pros are on the giants where
16:17
Speaker 1: it just I get it, all the trends, anything backs it,
16:20
Speaker 1: but just I feel like even you like the spiky
16:22
Speaker 1: sense everything's kicking up here, a little bit of this
16:24
Speaker 1: is a a funky wonky number here. Well, it's it's
16:28
Speaker 1: truly a um let's talk about that game to start. Uh,
16:34
Speaker 1: it's truly a trends matchups game, right, Um, and like
16:40
Speaker 1: it's it. I think Stucky. I listened to the Action
16:44
Speaker 1: Network pod this morning, and you know, shout out to
16:49
Speaker 1: both Raybon and Stucky who layered in ref stats galore
16:56
Speaker 1: to start the podcast, which I love. Um, hockey, Uh,
17:05
Speaker 1: there was nobody likes hockey and they love to talk
17:10
Speaker 1: about They were talking about how hockey is the guy
17:13
Speaker 1: who loves to be the villain and like call the
17:16
Speaker 1: penalties that makes the home town fans rained down fire. Um,
17:23
Speaker 1: so that was funny. But also I think stuck he
17:26
Speaker 1: pointed out Jordan Davis and Jalen Hurts in the lineup.
17:31
Speaker 1: The Eagles didn't lose this year, so we like this
17:37
Speaker 1: is a trend play versus a a on the field matchup, play,
17:42
Speaker 1: and in every way the Eagles should destroy the Giants
17:49
Speaker 1: and then forget about trends. Like what you and I
17:53
Speaker 1: talk about more than anything is public perception and on
17:58
Speaker 1: the field matchup and where those two things meet. I
18:02
Speaker 1: feel like the Giants are more of a public dog
18:05
Speaker 1: than the Eagles are a public favorite. Um Because of
18:10
Speaker 1: the way the Eagles played the last six weeks of
18:12
Speaker 1: the year, with Jalen Hurts being injured and Gardner Minshew
18:15
Speaker 1: playing and having a struggle to secure the number one seed,
18:18
Speaker 1: people just think they didn't look right. It feels to
18:22
Speaker 1: me like this is where you go against the trend
18:24
Speaker 1: and you take the team that is better on the field.
18:27
Speaker 1: I just waiting on that set. I'm just waiting on
18:29
Speaker 1: the seven. And that's what's been pissing me off though chat.
18:31
Speaker 1: It's like, why are they're not giving us the seven?
18:33
Speaker 1: I don't get it. Like we joke all the time,
18:37
Speaker 1: they're not your friends. They're not being nice giving given
18:39
Speaker 1: that extra hook on the seven and a half. We'll
18:43
Speaker 1: talk all the time, I like I do. It is
18:45
Speaker 1: nice when you take when you line up a line
18:47
Speaker 1: and you take a stand with the books right. It's
18:49
Speaker 1: nice when the book needs the same side of you need,
18:51
Speaker 1: Like we don't always findly bet the fade the public,
18:53
Speaker 1: whatever you want to say, but we do look for
18:56
Speaker 1: those opportunities of being on the same side as the book,
18:59
Speaker 1: but Roy looking for the value. And like you just said,
19:02
Speaker 1: the Eagles, the public just their public reception has just
19:06
Speaker 1: been dreadful the last month, I mean since the Herrist injury.
19:09
Speaker 1: Like you said, they want Owen two with minshow and
19:12
Speaker 1: then they barely beat the backups of the Giants, and
19:15
Speaker 1: the public do they understand the Eagles literally didn't run
19:18
Speaker 1: an offense in that second half. No, they just see
19:21
Speaker 1: the final score of well the back door and they
19:23
Speaker 1: covered the number of the Giants against this Eagles team.
19:25
Speaker 1: So I'm right there with you. I think this is
19:28
Speaker 1: more of a matchup of you know, pro trend and betters,
19:32
Speaker 1: guys who just simply bet trends and make a good
19:34
Speaker 1: living betting trends because you can do it like there
19:37
Speaker 1: there really is a science to the trend stuff. Obviously
19:41
Speaker 1: we don't blindly bet it, but me chat like to
19:42
Speaker 1: use it to line up with what we're trying to
19:44
Speaker 1: bet against. Guys to do models like me where it's
19:47
Speaker 1: like I feel like anyone that builds a model looks
19:50
Speaker 1: at the numbers, it's like, well, it's gonna favorite this
19:52
Speaker 1: ego side just because they are so good on the
19:54
Speaker 1: defensive lot and the offensive line. But um, like boring
19:59
Speaker 1: to other people. Favorite matchup in this game. It's not
20:02
Speaker 1: say the offense versus Devense, whatever you wanna say. It's
20:05
Speaker 1: literally Kelsey versus Dexter Lawrence, Like I can't wait to
20:08
Speaker 1: see that matchup. Um to all pros versus each other
20:11
Speaker 1: in that D line and offensive line for the Eagles.
20:13
Speaker 1: So um, yeah, this game chat, I want to seven.
20:18
Speaker 1: Like I haven't bet that much on the seven and
20:20
Speaker 1: a half just because I've been waiting for the seven.
20:23
Speaker 1: I'll be pissed if it does go to eight, right
20:25
Speaker 1: like me and you both would be a little pissed
20:26
Speaker 1: if we missed the seven a half. So we'll see.
20:28
Speaker 1: I probably will end up just you know, biting the
20:31
Speaker 1: bullet and just doing and taking the seven and a half.
20:33
Speaker 1: But I don't get it. All the money everyone I
20:37
Speaker 1: talked to, all the tickets, even like I'm looking at
20:39
Speaker 1: right now, they're all on the Giants and it's not
20:41
Speaker 1: even off the seven half in any book. So I
20:44
Speaker 1: just texted a guy and asked him, UM, wait for
20:46
Speaker 1: his text backs if if he's if he's seen any
20:48
Speaker 1: sevenths through the night, like when I was asleep, if
20:50
Speaker 1: anyone books touched seven. But like I wake up through
20:53
Speaker 1: the night and I checked my fun all the time
20:54
Speaker 1: and I never saw a seven. So to me, the
20:57
Speaker 1: books are cleared. Taking a stand here on the Eagles
21:00
Speaker 1: um being chattered taking a stand as well, And we
21:03
Speaker 1: might have a ton of egg on our face come
21:06
Speaker 1: next to that when we come back here on the show.
21:08
Speaker 1: Just because we already talked about all these little trends
21:11
Speaker 1: point to backing blindly just back in the Giants here.
21:14
Speaker 1: It's a good spot to back the best team a
21:17
Speaker 1: t S wise this season. So the people that are
21:20
Speaker 1: believers in them, they will be heavily rewarded. Me and
21:22
Speaker 1: Chad who are believers in fading public perception, getting value
21:26
Speaker 1: on a home favorite. And you know, looking at this
21:30
Speaker 1: Eagles team that they're not even the favorite right now
21:32
Speaker 1: in the NFC. The rookie quarterback Brock Purty and the
21:36
Speaker 1: Fodders team is. So that lets you kind of all
21:38
Speaker 1: you need to know about the market and what it
21:40
Speaker 1: thinks of this egos team. I just think we're getting
21:42
Speaker 1: a good undervalue team. Where if this number was ten, yes,
21:47
Speaker 1: that'd be impossible for me. Each had to get off
21:49
Speaker 1: of the giants, and then also the giants get blot
21:50
Speaker 1: up by twenty we look like idiots. But at the
21:53
Speaker 1: seven and a half, it's just it feels like it's
21:56
Speaker 1: a good number, Like this number should be closer to
21:57
Speaker 1: eight eight and a half. It's seven seven a half,
22:00
Speaker 1: which I do think it's the slimmest amount of value.
22:03
Speaker 1: I just think because people are that sharp, like that's
22:05
Speaker 1: how smart these betters are. They're not gonna let it
22:07
Speaker 1: get down below that seven or seven and a half.
22:09
Speaker 1: So yeah, me chat are waiting for the seven. But
22:12
Speaker 1: if if it doesn't get there, I gotta know what
22:14
Speaker 1: you'd bet in the seven and a half. I love
22:16
Speaker 1: how you get up in the middle of the night
22:18
Speaker 1: regularly to check your phone to see if lines moved.
22:21
Speaker 1: I get up regularly in the middle of the night
22:23
Speaker 1: to pee. Now that's my forever favorite thing. If you
22:27
Speaker 1: haven't downloaded the Action app is the one clicks one
22:30
Speaker 1: stop shop to see all different books and what the
22:33
Speaker 1: number is. It's just it's the ultimate game change because
22:36
Speaker 1: back in there you have to go through every site,
22:37
Speaker 1: which is does it sounds like a lot of work,
22:39
Speaker 1: but it's a pain the ask to do putting your
22:41
Speaker 1: going through each site to get each number. So once
22:44
Speaker 1: again Action app. It's free to download, right, Chad, it's
22:48
Speaker 1: the easy look at you one weekend in a studio
22:52
Speaker 1: and by the way, people listening, you know, Simmons become
22:57
Speaker 1: a remarkable media professional and in three short years he
23:02
Speaker 1: was unreal in the studio. This weekend we were getting
23:07
Speaker 1: all kinds of accolades from the production team. How wonderful
23:13
Speaker 1: it was to work with Simon. Professional prepared, great on air,
23:18
Speaker 1: so kind, so appreciative, Simon, way to go, say, if
23:25
Speaker 1: it's only once a year, I can do it an
23:27
Speaker 1: outdoor cat. If you gotta bring him in a couple
23:29
Speaker 1: of times a year, if it's gonna work, oh yeah,
23:31
Speaker 1: I totally thought, like sign is going to get us
23:34
Speaker 1: all fired this weekend. He great. You know what I did, Chad?
23:39
Speaker 1: I stuck it up for the team. That's right. Sometimes
23:42
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25:50
Speaker 1: net in West Virginia. Well we want to do, we
25:54
Speaker 1: said we might. We're thinking about making eagles are big balls.
25:56
Speaker 1: You got a different big balls because I'm I'll be honest,
25:59
Speaker 1: we do all the games. It's really giving me fits
26:02
Speaker 1: and it's the hardest want me to click bet on
26:05
Speaker 1: my on my computer on my phone is that Eagles game?
26:08
Speaker 1: The seven a half is just it's making me me
26:10
Speaker 1: feel like a coward. I'm just I hate the number.
26:13
Speaker 1: I do too, so we do it this But this
26:16
Speaker 1: is such a great lesson. This game. This game is
26:19
Speaker 1: a microcosm of why betting is hard, whether you're a
26:23
Speaker 1: professional or not, because you want to be patient, but
26:27
Speaker 1: you want to time the market. You wanna understand the
26:32
Speaker 1: the right side to play and when the books are
26:35
Speaker 1: trying to bait you, but you want to understand public perception. Uh,
26:39
Speaker 1: it's it. This is the hook is the hardest number
26:45
Speaker 1: in sports. It is because a lot of times one
26:48
Speaker 1: of the matter. That's what sucks where I'm trying to
26:50
Speaker 1: overthink it. But just when you think it won't matter,
26:53
Speaker 1: it does such a key This is such a key number.
26:57
Speaker 1: So um, yeah, I feel get takes a little bit
27:00
Speaker 1: of having big balls here to take a minus seven
27:02
Speaker 1: and a half because the truth is, I think we
27:04
Speaker 1: both think the Eagles probably should be favored by ten. Yeah. No,
27:08
Speaker 1: if Hurts plays out the season, we dropped only one
27:11
Speaker 1: game to Washington the whole year, and we play out
27:13
Speaker 1: and we went all the rest of the games. You know,
27:15
Speaker 1: this game would easily be closer to ten, especially the
27:18
Speaker 1: fact that you know, people all year doubt of the
27:20
Speaker 1: Eagles team. I mean, how many times I gotta say it,
27:23
Speaker 1: NFC beast, it's by far the best division in the NFC.
27:26
Speaker 1: And when we're sitting here looking at potential of being
27:29
Speaker 1: an Eagles um Cowboys match, we're Giants Cowboys, uh for
27:33
Speaker 1: the NFC Championship game, which is crazy to think because
27:36
Speaker 1: it was it two years ago we had like an
27:38
Speaker 1: eight and nine whoever was Washington making the playoffs or
27:41
Speaker 1: eight and eight. So it's one of those where went
27:43
Speaker 1: from being the worst division of football to arguably one
27:46
Speaker 1: of the best divisions of football. So the Eagles just
27:48
Speaker 1: seemed like a battle tested team that went through a
27:51
Speaker 1: really tough season, a lot of ups and downs, a
27:53
Speaker 1: lot of injuries, and I like a team of adversity
27:56
Speaker 1: and a team that is just being doubted, like we
27:58
Speaker 1: just talked about. I can't get over it. I can't
28:00
Speaker 1: believe Rock Party is the favor right now to win
28:02
Speaker 1: the NFC. It just feels like the overreaction of the
28:05
Speaker 1: public is an all time high for the FOS team
28:08
Speaker 1: and vice versa being low on this Eagles team. That
28:10
Speaker 1: give me it's still a class of the NFC. The
28:13
Speaker 1: NFC East has three teams in the divisional playoffs and
28:18
Speaker 1: one team that leads the league in congressional and federal investigations.
28:23
Speaker 1: Nobody can say that this division underachieves ever. Again, it's
28:28
Speaker 1: facts facts. The problem with making the Giants Eagles are
28:34
Speaker 1: big balls is I think it does a disservice to
28:38
Speaker 1: the listeners because we really want to wait for the
28:41
Speaker 1: seven and like, I don't think you and I I
28:44
Speaker 1: have not bet this game yet. I am not going
28:46
Speaker 1: to bet it at seven and a half. I'm either
28:48
Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna suck it up and it's gonna go
28:52
Speaker 1: to eight and I'll end up betting it at eight anyways,
28:55
Speaker 1: or I'm gonna wait for the seven and even at eight,
28:58
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna bet the Eagles. I'm just wait to
29:00
Speaker 1: see what happens with this number. So I don't think
29:02
Speaker 1: we could do big bass because I don't think you
29:04
Speaker 1: and I are gonna bet it at seven and a half.
29:06
Speaker 1: I am man Mitchell hit that drop calling a chat here.
29:08
Speaker 1: Goddamn coward, What did you say? It's my nerves, sir.
29:12
Speaker 1: I just can't stand you anymore. Hell, you're just a
29:15
Speaker 1: goddamn color. I won't have songs of pitches. We're afraid
29:19
Speaker 1: to fight staying up this place of honor here. God
29:23
Speaker 1: damn you take that seven a half? You enjoy it?
29:26
Speaker 1: Chat now? I really don't. I just don't think we're
29:28
Speaker 1: gonna get to the seven. I'll be honest with you,
29:29
Speaker 1: but I completely agree with you. Everyone can wait and
29:32
Speaker 1: hope for the seven. But like I'm I'm I'm gonna
29:36
Speaker 1: throw a decent amount of the seven a half just
29:39
Speaker 1: all right, Well that's different than what you were saying.
29:41
Speaker 1: You didn't say that to me. I'm saying like I'm
29:43
Speaker 1: waiting for it. But obviously, like comes Friday, I gotta
29:46
Speaker 1: start getting money like I can't. I can't start just
29:48
Speaker 1: betting everything Saturday Sunday morning. I just sadly it doesn't
29:52
Speaker 1: work that way. Um So yeah, like bye bye tonight.
29:57
Speaker 1: If there's still no seventh, Chad, I will start unloading
30:01
Speaker 1: money onto the seven and a half. No no worries
30:03
Speaker 1: from me, but we want the seven here's the beauty
30:06
Speaker 1: now of the podcast being released by five thirty in
30:11
Speaker 1: the evening on the day we record it. As long
30:14
Speaker 1: as people subscribe to the favorites feed. This isn't just
30:18
Speaker 1: a regular silly promo. This is advantageous. We can tell
30:24
Speaker 1: them this can be our big balls, but bet it
30:28
Speaker 1: like if it's if it hasn't moved from seven and
30:30
Speaker 1: a half by Thursday night, big balls better the week
30:36
Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles minus seven and a half, and I will
30:38
Speaker 1: do the same thing. I'm not gonna say the name,
30:40
Speaker 1: but if you open up the app, there is one
30:42
Speaker 1: seven out there right now. Um, but it's a company
30:46
Speaker 1: that does not sponsor us. Mhm. And then again, if
30:50
Speaker 1: you're terrified of the seven and you want to back
30:52
Speaker 1: a team that's been incredible in the first half, and
30:54
Speaker 1: the Eagles, you could do that, and there's some three
30:56
Speaker 1: and a half fours out there. I'm just a little
30:58
Speaker 1: worried about what means chat talked about of a team
31:02
Speaker 1: coming off a bye week sometimes starting slow, So that's
31:04
Speaker 1: always a worry with that. So UM to me, I
31:07
Speaker 1: don't mind the seven half as much, um, But obviously
31:09
Speaker 1: we'll be on the Eagles first half as well, and
31:12
Speaker 1: the pricing on the seven and a half, it's all
31:15
Speaker 1: over the place. I'm seeing it is minus one twelve
31:18
Speaker 1: minus one oh nine minus one ten. Like the minus
31:22
Speaker 1: one twelve would tell me that it might be going
31:23
Speaker 1: to eight. Uh, like some books are about to go
31:26
Speaker 1: to eight and others are about to get back to seven.
31:29
Speaker 1: That's that's so interesting. I told you it's pro on
31:33
Speaker 1: pro so it depends what books limit, what guys um.
31:36
Speaker 1: But yeah, definitely definitely split the next three hands, we're
31:42
Speaker 1: gonna talk about them. They're not split. No, Uh, let's
31:45
Speaker 1: talk about Jacksonville and the Chiefs. Let me ask you this.
31:49
Speaker 1: I know you don't agree with this, but I'm on
31:53
Speaker 1: the under and I hate correlating the under an aside
31:58
Speaker 1: in a game. I just hate it. Yeah, yeah, because
32:03
Speaker 1: then like I end up like having a root for
32:06
Speaker 1: two different things. Well, that's why you always go larger
32:09
Speaker 1: on one than the other. Like if I say I
32:11
Speaker 1: do a side and a total, I'll go one unit
32:13
Speaker 1: on a side and then happy unit on the under
32:15
Speaker 1: or vice versia um, because the actuality, that is how
32:18
Speaker 1: it is. We're like I'm gonna have fifty cameras side
32:21
Speaker 1: and just ten k on a total, but I still
32:23
Speaker 1: bet both, and I still have a decent amounts. I'm
32:25
Speaker 1: gonna give out both. Um. Then I'm only you know
32:27
Speaker 1: what I puts on the under. So I'm only going
32:32
Speaker 1: to put fifty on the side or like thirty or forty. Um.
32:36
Speaker 1: To me, the only fear is in Jackson Chiefs right now,
32:41
Speaker 1: Jacks Chiefs. Um, My only fear of this game chat
32:43
Speaker 1: is going back watched the last time they played, and
32:47
Speaker 1: obviously Jaguars are not the same teams they were then.
32:49
Speaker 1: Staying with the Chiefs though, I mean, they're improvements on
32:51
Speaker 1: the defensive side has been pretty incredible the second half
32:54
Speaker 1: of the season, just because their secondary is really young,
32:56
Speaker 1: really really young. Um, they had they had a game
33:00
Speaker 1: in which they want to turn up about they weren't
33:02
Speaker 1: three and oh on turnovers and they still lost by
33:05
Speaker 1: ten and we saw how how would happen. There's a
33:07
Speaker 1: bunch of times they could have covered that number at
33:08
Speaker 1: the end of that game. Uh, the Jaguars with the
33:10
Speaker 1: Chiefs just didn't bounced their away. Where we're talking earlier
33:14
Speaker 1: in the year when these two teams play early in
33:16
Speaker 1: the year, and these two teams play so like one
33:18
Speaker 1: of those where it's like I'm gonna throw it out.
33:19
Speaker 1: Obviously the film because these teams are very different, but
33:23
Speaker 1: you see a lot of what Andy's gonna do in
33:25
Speaker 1: this game, where like the picking up, like not that
33:28
Speaker 1: he was playing with his food. It felt like in
33:29
Speaker 1: that game with My Homes a little bit though, like
33:32
Speaker 1: a little bit. We're in the second half. They weren't
33:34
Speaker 1: really doing much or showing much. They had multiple times
33:36
Speaker 1: where they had run it on first time, run on second.
33:39
Speaker 1: He would have a little you know, crazy play where
33:41
Speaker 1: you try to pick up a first moment whatever it was,
33:43
Speaker 1: but you let the Jags back into that game. So, um,
33:47
Speaker 1: I was hoping the trends would back us more from
33:50
Speaker 1: our guy Evan. They do a little bit like Favorite
33:52
Speaker 1: Mahomes in this position as a big favorite. Obviously, this
33:56
Speaker 1: year has not been good to them. The dogs have
33:58
Speaker 1: been covering as a big dog, especially at home homes.
34:01
Speaker 1: A moment's surprising. He is better on the road at
34:03
Speaker 1: s wise he is at home. Um, you already talked
34:06
Speaker 1: about the under. We were blindly gonna be on this
34:08
Speaker 1: this This is just an automatic play this under. Historically
34:11
Speaker 1: the trends back at also matchup wise, this is just
34:14
Speaker 1: a good spot because the Jacks could totally lay in
34:17
Speaker 1: negg here. We we just talked about there coming off
34:19
Speaker 1: one of the biggest wins, and I don't even know
34:22
Speaker 1: at least since Blake Mortles was there and he took
34:24
Speaker 1: an NFC championship game. That was a moment that ownership,
34:27
Speaker 1: front office, all of them have dreamt about of their
34:30
Speaker 1: first overall pick. Came back at home and a huge game,
34:33
Speaker 1: got a whole fan based route up, and it's got
34:36
Speaker 1: all of us pros route up, like I don't get
34:39
Speaker 1: this number at all. When I when I really honestly
34:41
Speaker 1: put this number in my mouth, I wasn't all right seven,
34:43
Speaker 1: which yes I would. I am half a point at
34:46
Speaker 1: least to me, I'd be undervaluing the Chiefs just because
34:49
Speaker 1: talking about the time they protect against teasers in the playoffs.
34:52
Speaker 1: We saw it last week the Bengals Bills Chiefs. That
34:56
Speaker 1: was like the ultimate chalk teaser. The bank showed a loss.
35:00
Speaker 1: I mean, even me and she had talked about all
35:02
Speaker 1: the time that that's even that teaser a breakers. So
35:04
Speaker 1: that's why the books don't mind giving. They're like, yeah,
35:06
Speaker 1: go ahead, throw a little three team. Ten point teas
35:08
Speaker 1: are together of those teams because they know the math
35:11
Speaker 1: works at over time. That's one of those teams is
35:13
Speaker 1: gonna get caught. Like That's just how it is in
35:14
Speaker 1: wild card weekend. The divisional weekend, it's way higher. I
35:18
Speaker 1: told you the return on investment of betting these dogs,
35:21
Speaker 1: especially these big dogs, it is very profitable in divisional round.
35:25
Speaker 1: Chattery told you that the one seed historically, especially one
35:28
Speaker 1: seeds out of above and eight percent win percentage, they
35:31
Speaker 1: cover a lesson clip. So right there, that's why the
35:34
Speaker 1: guys are kind of blindly fading the Eagles. They're blindly
35:37
Speaker 1: fading the Bills, and they're blindly fading the Chiefs here
35:40
Speaker 1: this week. Just because of those trends of these teams
35:43
Speaker 1: are really high win percentages, usually underperformed in the playoffs
35:46
Speaker 1: because the public is perception, right. We saw last week
35:49
Speaker 1: with that Ravens again, that line was bumped up two
35:50
Speaker 1: points just because everyone's all over Joe Burrow, on the
35:53
Speaker 1: hype of Joe Burrow and that Cincinnati team, Like you know,
35:56
Speaker 1: he was going up against a backup quarterback. They're gonna
35:59
Speaker 1: steam that line up. We're me and you talked about
36:01
Speaker 1: We're That's why we found Valley. We're not backing the
36:04
Speaker 1: Ravens because of the quarterback. We're back in them because
36:06
Speaker 1: of that defense. So it's the same thing with Jackson.
36:08
Speaker 1: It's like I want to back the Chiefs, but we've
36:12
Speaker 1: seen it time and time again. This team let these
36:15
Speaker 1: teams back in it. So Chatt, I might be walking
36:18
Speaker 1: into it, but there's no way of us avoiding it.
36:20
Speaker 1: We love this Jaguars team and we're getting a great number,
36:22
Speaker 1: a key number two at eight and a half nine
36:24
Speaker 1: at some books. Um, I love it. But like looking
36:29
Speaker 1: looking at this game and why I look at it,
36:30
Speaker 1: I just I'm dreading it because it's like this ain't
36:34
Speaker 1: no Herbert and Stanley. This is and your Reid and
36:37
Speaker 1: my homes. This is a team that they've been to
36:38
Speaker 1: the conference championship now four straight years or maybe it's
36:41
Speaker 1: three years, and if they go this year before straight years,
36:43
Speaker 1: they're just if they go this year, it will be
36:45
Speaker 1: five five straight years. That's right, Like that's insane. So
36:50
Speaker 1: I I wish I could come in here and puff
36:54
Speaker 1: my chest out and uh which was about to clip
36:57
Speaker 1: play the clip and just be like you took the
37:00
Speaker 1: Jags Morne line, Jags upset this is destiny. This is
37:03
Speaker 1: the Jaguars team. All right, listen, Duvall, they're doing it again.
37:07
Speaker 1: They're counting your out. You are an afterthought. They're already
37:11
Speaker 1: booking a dream matchup with the Chiefs and the Bills
37:14
Speaker 1: in the a f C title. Get they're overlooking you.
37:17
Speaker 1: But here's what they're overlooking, the upset minded spirit of
37:21
Speaker 1: Duval County. Years ago, blank portals and the Jags knocked
37:24
Speaker 1: off the bunted Steelers in Pittsburgh. Now you're counting out
37:28
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence against the defense that is given up thirty
37:31
Speaker 1: three touchdown passes this year. That's more that the Titans
37:35
Speaker 1: have given up. So I love me, hear you say,
37:37
Speaker 1: do let's go. It's just hard to do against my
37:42
Speaker 1: homes where I saw him dead, Like the Bills shot
37:45
Speaker 1: him twice in the head last year. He was dead
37:48
Speaker 1: and in seven seconds he got down the field and
37:50
Speaker 1: kicked the field goal. So I just it's hard for
37:53
Speaker 1: me to tell people to take the money line. But
37:56
Speaker 1: I just I have to take this eight and a
37:57
Speaker 1: half of the Jags team. But I will tell you
38:00
Speaker 1: I don't think that's the best bet in the game.
38:01
Speaker 1: The best bet in the game is the under. It's
38:04
Speaker 1: the best bet for what we what we need to
38:06
Speaker 1: happen to cover the Jags game, which is the Jacks
38:10
Speaker 1: will slow the game down, really dreaded out and my
38:13
Speaker 1: homes to be off killed because of that where he's
38:15
Speaker 1: not getting enough reps and touches, where he feels off
38:17
Speaker 1: balance after a buy a weekend, he doesn't have his
38:20
Speaker 1: mom's games. So, um, yeah, if if that ends up
38:24
Speaker 1: being our biggest bet in this game, if I if
38:25
Speaker 1: I end up betting more on the under, I would
38:27
Speaker 1: not be shocked. And I just said the trends back
38:29
Speaker 1: it in our game script what we plan on happen
38:32
Speaker 1: in this game. Also, that really realies heavily on the
38:35
Speaker 1: under because if this game is going way over, I
38:37
Speaker 1: just I think it would be tough for us to
38:39
Speaker 1: uh cover this number, just because you don't want an
38:41
Speaker 1: arms race between these two offenses. Yep, totally true. Um,
38:47
Speaker 1: we like the Jags. I love the under. U. I
38:51
Speaker 1: think it's just the way you gotta go. But you
38:53
Speaker 1: do have to bet the Jacks. You gotta bet the Jacks. Um,
38:56
Speaker 1: that's what we do. We do ugly things here. I
39:01
Speaker 1: don't like it. Last week and of four games. Four games.
39:08
Speaker 1: I miss it already. I was thinking about that because
39:11
Speaker 1: I was making some notes this morning. What am I
39:14
Speaker 1: gonna do next Saturday? Just talk to people and do
39:17
Speaker 1: normal things again, not watch football. No, you're gonna tell
39:20
Speaker 1: people there's a game. Hopefully the people you hang out
39:22
Speaker 1: with don't know that I'm saying Saturday. Yeah, Hopefully the
39:25
Speaker 1: people you hang out with don't know and aren't following
39:28
Speaker 1: the season and don't realize that. You could just keep
39:31
Speaker 1: telling like infinitely. Oh yeah, they playoffs. There's game Saturday
39:35
Speaker 1: and Sunday until the middle of March. Um. Alright, let's
39:40
Speaker 1: talk about the next game on the schedule. We've gone
39:42
Speaker 1: through the Giants and the Egos. We've gone through the
39:45
Speaker 1: Jags and the Chiefs. Uh, Cincinnati and Buffalo. Um, we
39:50
Speaker 1: love Buffalo here by the way. In the luck rankings
39:54
Speaker 1: from wild Card weekend, Cincinnati number one, Dallas number two,
40:00
Speaker 1: you Jacksonville number three. Look, Cincinnati down three starters on
40:05
Speaker 1: the offensive line. Bills have a deep past, deep defensive
40:10
Speaker 1: line top ten and pressure rate. Cincinnati also binged up
40:14
Speaker 1: in the secondary. Now you look at how the Bills
40:16
Speaker 1: played against Miami. They played terribly against a backup quarterback,
40:22
Speaker 1: and that team with a backup quarterback card every bad
40:26
Speaker 1: break and the Bills still won Cincinnati against the backup
40:31
Speaker 1: quarterback had only two and thirty four yards of offense
40:34
Speaker 1: and was totally outplayed and only one because of a
40:38
Speaker 1: miraculous yard return. Bills. You make me want to shout
40:48
Speaker 1: wanna the camp flo pros. I have talked to you
40:53
Speaker 1: that are on the Bengals. They're honestly thrown out everything
40:56
Speaker 1: that thrown out trans throwing out all models, and they're
40:58
Speaker 1: just saying, this is were you back Joe Brow when
41:01
Speaker 1: no one believes in them? When everyone's getting off Joe this,
41:03
Speaker 1: when you're back them? I said to them, he's still
41:05
Speaker 1: getting all the tickets. The public is right there with you.
41:07
Speaker 1: They all believe in them. They're all taking the stumber
41:09
Speaker 1: just like you are. I feel like everyone's not believing
41:11
Speaker 1: this Bills team. I think they're not overreacting to last week,
41:18
Speaker 1: but a little bit of it right where it's like, yeah,
41:21
Speaker 1: like how do they how do they play so bad
41:22
Speaker 1: against the Miami team that's playing backups and as a
41:25
Speaker 1: bunch of injuries across the board, and they had injuries
41:26
Speaker 1: for offensive line that injuries to their defense Miami. Um,
41:30
Speaker 1: did Miami simply get overlooked by the Bills? Will never know?
41:33
Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's obviously the human part of it.
41:36
Speaker 1: Where yeah, sure, when they were about to be up
41:38
Speaker 1: twenty one nothing or whatever was seventeen nothing the Bills
41:41
Speaker 1: maybe they took a little bit off the gas and
41:43
Speaker 1: they got punished for that. Where that became way closer
41:45
Speaker 1: the game, and once that had started happening, we kind
41:48
Speaker 1: of saw it spinning there with like every little play
41:50
Speaker 1: with Josh Allen felt like way harder than when the
41:52
Speaker 1: start of the game. It just all looks so easy
41:54
Speaker 1: to this Bills team. So matchup wise, I didn't. We
42:00
Speaker 1: talked about I did not get this number when it opened, right,
42:02
Speaker 1: There's a couple of books opened six and a half
42:03
Speaker 1: and I was like, yikes, that is a horrible number.
42:06
Speaker 1: Immediately bet since um because again, no one can run
42:09
Speaker 1: a model that quick Sunday night, so bets since wake
42:13
Speaker 1: up Sunday morning, it was already down or Monday morning
42:16
Speaker 1: it was down to four and four and a half UM,
42:19
Speaker 1: which made perfect sense. Then by Monday afternoon it was
42:23
Speaker 1: down to three and a half, which again that's that
42:26
Speaker 1: means like real pro money is coming on the since team.
42:29
Speaker 1: And then by Tuesday whatever, two in the morning, you
42:33
Speaker 1: saw it completely flip. You saw it already already started
42:35
Speaker 1: going up to four or four, and alfter a couple
42:37
Speaker 1: of books Chat I do, our show, The Day Goes by,
42:40
Speaker 1: We Coming Today is now up through five and a half,
42:42
Speaker 1: and almost every book there's a there's a one five
42:45
Speaker 1: I can see right now in the app that's left
42:46
Speaker 1: out there in sort of books. So I'm not shocked
42:50
Speaker 1: how heavy the pros have come in. I am more
42:52
Speaker 1: shocked the amount of money they're betting on the Bills.
42:54
Speaker 1: Where I have my reservations because what I just talked about,
42:58
Speaker 1: this Bill's defense has not right in a long time.
43:01
Speaker 1: They've been giving up chunkyard, especially on the ground. Josh
43:04
Speaker 1: Allen since the DeBow injury has not looked right. I mean,
43:06
Speaker 1: the guy I was leading the league and um interceptions
43:11
Speaker 1: until luckily Dak Prescott came back from injury and just
43:13
Speaker 1: ran away with it. But there's been a lot of
43:15
Speaker 1: questions with this Bill's team. Last year, there was no
43:19
Speaker 1: there were none of those questions last year. They really
43:21
Speaker 1: felt like that team where they had all everything going,
43:23
Speaker 1: where this year. They do have questions, and I get
43:25
Speaker 1: why the public is going in on since You because
43:28
Speaker 1: of those questions. But me and Chad, we're just playing
43:30
Speaker 1: a number here, and to us, this number should be
43:32
Speaker 1: closer to six what it's about to get to. That
43:35
Speaker 1: makes sense because of all the injuries to the offensive
43:37
Speaker 1: line with since You where, yeah, Joe might be able
43:39
Speaker 1: to have his moments like he did last year in
43:41
Speaker 1: the playoffs. And I get why the pros are saying, well,
43:43
Speaker 1: any anytime Joe's bigger dog than three, it's worked out
43:46
Speaker 1: for me. So I'm gonna take it here because he
43:48
Speaker 1: just plays teams close, So I get where they're coming from.
43:52
Speaker 1: I just love this Bill's matchup so much because of
43:55
Speaker 1: what we talked about, just the undervalue of them and
43:58
Speaker 1: they we January kind of talked about. But the problems
44:03
Speaker 1: they have this week already said they can fix those
44:05
Speaker 1: problems these since the issues they can't fix it like this.
44:08
Speaker 1: They have all these backups now on the offensive line,
44:10
Speaker 1: that's major issues. When they have different call signs, all
44:12
Speaker 1: these protection schemes, that's a big deal to this Bengals team. Now,
44:16
Speaker 1: I know their front is nowhere near as good as
44:17
Speaker 1: the Ravens front, but they still have all pros, especially
44:20
Speaker 1: in the linebacker position on this Buffalo team, where I
44:22
Speaker 1: know they're gonna be able to schemes to McDermott. To me,
44:25
Speaker 1: he's one of the best defensive schemers in the game.
44:27
Speaker 1: Like he is just a genius when it comes to
44:30
Speaker 1: scheming up stuff defensively. And that's why the Bills since
44:32
Speaker 1: he's been there, historically been a top five defense. Not
44:35
Speaker 1: d v O A, not just dv O A, but
44:37
Speaker 1: other statistics back then. So yeah, I I can't get
44:41
Speaker 1: out of my way chat on this one. Um loved
44:43
Speaker 1: the Bills obviously. I mean you always like in the
44:46
Speaker 1: best of number side. I wish it's stayed at four
44:47
Speaker 1: and a half. Four that was just a really nice
44:49
Speaker 1: key number. But I already talked about if you can
44:52
Speaker 1: get if you haven't gotten it, I'm still making bets
44:54
Speaker 1: of five and a half just because I think it
44:56
Speaker 1: will eventually get the six. We'll see. I mean, it's
45:00
Speaker 1: doesn't touched six in any book yet, but it's it's
45:02
Speaker 1: holding right now five and a half. So maybe that's
45:04
Speaker 1: the resistance line of as soon as they touched six
45:06
Speaker 1: the pros, I guess come in heavy on the other side,
45:08
Speaker 1: But to me, I would take this up to five
45:11
Speaker 1: and a half of this Bills team. Um, what sticks
45:17
Speaker 1: out to me is that anytime Joe Burrow dropped back
45:20
Speaker 1: at the end of that Bengals Ravens game, he was
45:25
Speaker 1: cratering like just had no turn in his lap. And
45:28
Speaker 1: like this Bills team doesn't need to blitz to get
45:31
Speaker 1: that kind of pressure that the line can do it
45:34
Speaker 1: all on its own. So, uh, you know, the Bills
45:38
Speaker 1: are are a good spot here. The last game, I
45:41
Speaker 1: wouldn't say we like divisional round and the upset here,
45:45
Speaker 1: no one be shocked, like we've seen it all year
45:47
Speaker 1: where every team has red zones struggles. Do we know
45:50
Speaker 1: what weeks and what games that's going to be for
45:52
Speaker 1: certain teams? No, that's impossible to know since that is
45:55
Speaker 1: their strength all year. Like surprisingly, as great as their
45:58
Speaker 1: offensive played and Joe Burrow gets all the accolades if
46:00
Speaker 1: you go through it, a lot of the games, was
46:03
Speaker 1: their defense really picking up the slacking of that offense,
46:06
Speaker 1: especially earlier in the season when they were just off
46:08
Speaker 1: such a rough start. So since see, if they didn't
46:10
Speaker 1: have all these injuries, I would love them here, Like
46:13
Speaker 1: to me, this would be a no brain, especially the
46:14
Speaker 1: way the Bills have played this year, that you have
46:17
Speaker 1: to account for all these injuries. They have to they
46:19
Speaker 1: have to catch up to him at some point, and
46:20
Speaker 1: that's what I think it do. I just think the
46:22
Speaker 1: Bills are too good for a team to be this
46:24
Speaker 1: banged up to comment and cover this number, especially when
46:26
Speaker 1: the Bills are at home in this position. Last Give
46:29
Speaker 1: of the Day, Cowboys visiting the Niners. Uh, we talked
46:33
Speaker 1: about it a little bit on Tuesday. We settled on
46:36
Speaker 1: the under being the bet that we liked the most.
46:38
Speaker 1: It was at forty six and a half. I think
46:40
Speaker 1: now it's down to um, you leaned Niners. I didn't
46:47
Speaker 1: have a huge feeling about it yet wise guys coming
46:50
Speaker 1: in hard on the Cowboys. This line has moved down
46:54
Speaker 1: from four to three and a half. Yeah, I mean
46:58
Speaker 1: we'll talk about because I'm just I've been in decisive
47:01
Speaker 1: about where I took when I touched three and a
47:03
Speaker 1: half when we came in whenever that was Tuesday morning,
47:05
Speaker 1: I made it two bets, um, two different books on
47:08
Speaker 1: the number, just because I was like, okay, this is
47:11
Speaker 1: this is this Maybe this has moved too far at
47:12
Speaker 1: this point, this is way too much renover reaction till
47:14
Speaker 1: last week with the Cowboys. Um. But then once again
47:18
Speaker 1: it's like, all right, maybe I shouldn't be maybe I
47:23
Speaker 1: shouldn't be so down the Cowboys in the sense that
47:25
Speaker 1: their struggles during the season, obviously they're not gonna supply
47:28
Speaker 1: on the correct all those struggles. But it's more about
47:31
Speaker 1: the Four Nins. Who the hell have they played? And
47:34
Speaker 1: that's what I keep going back to. Where and when
47:36
Speaker 1: I look at this Four Nights team, I think they
47:38
Speaker 1: were incredibly lucky to be the division they're in where.
47:41
Speaker 1: I mean, let's face it, like, who was our top
47:43
Speaker 1: competition that division? Geno Smith, the team they dominated twice
47:46
Speaker 1: when they played them, They're just there was nothing in
47:49
Speaker 1: that division. And then I look through it, it turns out, okay,
47:52
Speaker 1: the financially did not play anyone. So they played two
47:55
Speaker 1: teams that had a positive point differential. You know, those
47:58
Speaker 1: two teams were chat like two teams all season. There
48:03
Speaker 1: was a Seahawks at plus nine and it was the
48:06
Speaker 1: Chiefs at plus What happened when they played the Chiefs,
48:12
Speaker 1: I can't remember that game. They got smoked. I think
48:14
Speaker 1: they lost like forty forty two to say they got
48:19
Speaker 1: absolutely smoked. Um, do I think their defense is as
48:23
Speaker 1: bad as they were in that Chiefs game? No, I
48:25
Speaker 1: do not. But do I think there had major weaknesses
48:28
Speaker 1: that once they faced a good offense and offense canna exploit.
48:31
Speaker 1: I do. And I think that you're gonna get a
48:33
Speaker 1: match up here with this Dallas team that if Dallas
48:36
Speaker 1: is smart, they will literally give the fernand Is their
48:40
Speaker 1: own medicine, which is you basically just gonna bleed the
48:43
Speaker 1: clock and make it that Purty is just uncomfortable. Pretty
48:46
Speaker 1: we've seen the time thanking. If you go back to
48:47
Speaker 1: watch this film, unless he gets in a rhythm, he's
48:50
Speaker 1: out of sorts. Like That's why they run so much
48:53
Speaker 1: and give him so many play action things, because Shanahan
48:55
Speaker 1: is literally like, Okay, I got a rookie kid here,
48:57
Speaker 1: let me just get him some easy throats he can
48:59
Speaker 1: live to watch and throw and see a guy catch,
49:02
Speaker 1: just to get him comfortable and get him into a
49:04
Speaker 1: good zone. When he doesn't get that, when he's just
49:06
Speaker 1: uncom from the get go, he mightily struggles. And I
49:10
Speaker 1: just love like the more I study on this team,
49:12
Speaker 1: It's just I love the matchup, not only for the
49:15
Speaker 1: Cowboys d line, but further offense. I just like the
49:18
Speaker 1: way they can be able to spread teams out. I
49:21
Speaker 1: have no idea what they're gonna do a Zeke. Their
49:23
Speaker 1: coaching staffs not dumb. Zeke has really fallen off a
49:25
Speaker 1: cliff here. These this last year. Pollard, since he's come
49:28
Speaker 1: back from his injuries, looked better every week. This is
49:31
Speaker 1: his dream matchup. This is kind of matchup where you
49:33
Speaker 1: really would use Pollard. Where you look at that Chief's matchup,
49:36
Speaker 1: it sounds crazy that whole match was based off their
49:39
Speaker 1: running backs. Yes, Mahomes did a lot of stuff with
49:41
Speaker 1: the receivers, but he was literally using his running backs
49:44
Speaker 1: against their linebackers. So say, uh Fred's calling up a
49:48
Speaker 1: blitz scheme for the linebackers. They're gonna send a guy
49:50
Speaker 1: from the right side. Moments would shifts running back to
49:53
Speaker 1: that right side and literally just dump off to it.
49:56
Speaker 1: And it sounds stupid. They did that the whole game,
49:58
Speaker 1: a throw or four years off Olens and it worked.
50:01
Speaker 1: I mean, comes second half, the four were exhausted, their
50:04
Speaker 1: linebackers were exhausted from running sidle into sideline. I think
50:07
Speaker 1: Dallas will do the same thing here and I see
50:09
Speaker 1: why the pros are coming into heavy ones because I
50:11
Speaker 1: didn't like this. To me, this was just a smart under.
50:14
Speaker 1: I could see Dak Lane an egg and I could
50:15
Speaker 1: see pretty landing egg and this being a twenty to
50:18
Speaker 1: ten fourteen just grinded out battle between two teams um
50:23
Speaker 1: that have incredible D lines. Now, the pros, all these
50:27
Speaker 1: pros I talked to, they're just they're just they're the
50:29
Speaker 1: ones that were like, you have to go back and
50:31
Speaker 1: watch that Chiefs take because they're just loving this Cowboys
50:33
Speaker 1: offense matchup wise against this FOURTS defense. So, um, this
50:38
Speaker 1: won't be one of my biggest bets of the weekend.
50:39
Speaker 1: I can tell you this. Really smart groups have put
50:43
Speaker 1: well into seven figures at this point on the four,
50:45
Speaker 1: the four and a half and the three and a
50:47
Speaker 1: half of this Cowboys team. So to me, I think
50:51
Speaker 1: we'll eventually see some forts money coming in because I
50:53
Speaker 1: know some pros that they're the ones that have pushed
50:55
Speaker 1: this is up so high, and they're the ones that
50:58
Speaker 1: they think they're the team of destiny, not the Eagles,
51:00
Speaker 1: not the Cowboys on the Giants. They're the ones who
51:02
Speaker 1: have been betting Purty and its four futures for a
51:06
Speaker 1: month now, like they've just been drinking the kool aid
51:08
Speaker 1: and it's been good to them. This team has been
51:10
Speaker 1: covering and they've been winning these big spreads. So I
51:14
Speaker 1: get where they're coming from. I get the love of purty.
51:17
Speaker 1: I just look at the film and I'm like, this
51:18
Speaker 1: guy has been very lucky and he's been playing against
51:20
Speaker 1: very weak competition. So we're about to learn a lot
51:23
Speaker 1: about them. I mean Shannon and we talked at him.
51:25
Speaker 1: He's a great schemer. What's his biggest weakness? As biggest
51:28
Speaker 1: weakness when he gets a lead heading to the fourth quarter.
51:30
Speaker 1: So at no point with me, chat we're taking this
51:32
Speaker 1: three and a half. Am I gonna be sweating this
51:34
Speaker 1: unless they're getting blown out, obviously, then we're dead. We're
51:36
Speaker 1: dead in the water with Dallas. But if say Dallas
51:39
Speaker 1: is downten heading into the fourth quarter, I'm honestly not
51:43
Speaker 1: that scared. Me and Chad are touchdown away from covering
51:45
Speaker 1: this three and a half. So I'm with the pros.
51:47
Speaker 1: I believe this is a good number. My biggest bets
51:49
Speaker 1: gonna still be the under UM. I'm still grab it
51:52
Speaker 1: now before it goes down below UM. But if you
51:55
Speaker 1: already got the forty six and a half or forty six,
51:58
Speaker 1: just wait, it could it could get better up again.
52:00
Speaker 1: But to me, I think pros will keep taking this
52:02
Speaker 1: under as well. Yeah, I think that a lot of
52:06
Speaker 1: pros have this game power rated at our own four.
52:11
Speaker 1: So I think that's why we were seeing the number
52:14
Speaker 1: move And that narrative about who has brought pretty really
52:17
Speaker 1: faced has become very real this week, you know, with
52:22
Speaker 1: with less games to analyze and the ability to spend
52:25
Speaker 1: more time on each individual game, this has become a
52:28
Speaker 1: real conversation. Uh. And in the flip side, the way
52:33
Speaker 1: people are thinking about the Cowboys, you know, you can
52:36
Speaker 1: have negative biases just the way say, the same way
52:38
Speaker 1: you can self scout against positive biases, you can self
52:42
Speaker 1: scout against negative biases. Uh. And people saw something against
52:46
Speaker 1: the Bucks. So I mean we still have all our
52:48
Speaker 1: question marks about that Adack. I mean, Dak that doesn't
52:51
Speaker 1: just get thrown out in one game like Dac. He's
52:53
Speaker 1: had major issues this year. And am I going to
52:58
Speaker 1: feel like an idiot taken back against grade at number
53:00
Speaker 1: one defensive football if we get totally destroyed here? Of course,
53:04
Speaker 1: But like Jettis talked, about we're trying to we're trying
53:06
Speaker 1: to play a number here, and I'm not taking anything
53:08
Speaker 1: way from Pretty. I mean Pretty. To me, he deserves,
53:11
Speaker 1: in my opinion, to be the starter next season heading
53:13
Speaker 1: into the camp and him and Trailians can battle it out,
53:15
Speaker 1: and obviously Shannon will give the winner to that. But
53:18
Speaker 1: to me, you have to respect Pretty. He's made all
53:20
Speaker 1: the places, he's made, all the throws. They've had games
53:23
Speaker 1: during this run, they've been down and it wasn't McCaffrey
53:26
Speaker 1: or whatever bringing them back. It was Pretty making these
53:29
Speaker 1: big time throws. So I'm trying to be so negative
53:31
Speaker 1: and take anything away from the kid. I'm just simply
53:34
Speaker 1: staying facts of this team really has not played anyone.
53:38
Speaker 1: The fort simply have not played offensively anyone really that's
53:42
Speaker 1: worth talking about. Like they just they've had a nice run.
53:45
Speaker 1: They are a very good defense. We saw those holes
53:49
Speaker 1: in their secondary, I mean that was there. Like DK
53:52
Speaker 1: Metcalf had a really good game against him for that
53:54
Speaker 1: Seahawks team. So that's why I completely understand where these
53:57
Speaker 1: pros are coming from. Believing in this offense of Dak
54:00
Speaker 1: Ceedee Lamb and these cowboy guys gonna move the ball
54:02
Speaker 1: get to four. I've seen that once again. They have
54:05
Speaker 1: faced only one top three or top five offense this season.
54:08
Speaker 1: So I am interested to see how this game plays
54:10
Speaker 1: out right now because I wasn't. I did not like
54:14
Speaker 1: the Cowboys coming into it. I thought the public are
54:16
Speaker 1: reacted to it, and it's my opinions really turned with
54:18
Speaker 1: the amount of pros and how they've talked about this
54:20
Speaker 1: Dallas team. Yep, totally has all right, let's recap. Simon says,
54:25
Speaker 1: was the nine miners Cowboys under forty six and a half.
54:29
Speaker 1: Keep trying to get it at forty six if you
54:30
Speaker 1: can fox hole Bills minus four and a half. Definitely
54:33
Speaker 1: feels like we fox hold that one. Exact decision Chiefs
54:36
Speaker 1: Jags under fifty three, fifty two and a half. Our
54:39
Speaker 1: big balls is going to be the Eagles minus seven
54:41
Speaker 1: and a half. Let's hold off and see if you
54:46
Speaker 1: know it's moved. Yeah, it's same se of the Cowboys,
54:48
Speaker 1: Like if you can find a four with the Cowboys,
54:50
Speaker 1: that's the movie. You just want to grab the best
54:52
Speaker 1: number you can. So Sam, Cowboys grabbed the four. If
54:54
Speaker 1: you can. Eagles, me and Chad where you talking? We're
54:56
Speaker 1: gonna wait for the seven. If you're like me and
54:59
Speaker 1: you can't wait any long here, I would just bite
55:01
Speaker 1: the bullet. Grab a seven and a half. All right,
55:03
Speaker 1: this has been the Favorites podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
55:08
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