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NFL Week 18 Best Bets · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: Inside I want to kill myself. We're on Own seven
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses, not a
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: good day at all.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Own four, I have not had a good season.
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: Man with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: slump continues, I've reached into pink.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Actually, I'm going to burn my browins hat man, I
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: don't know what is going on with the bruins arch hape?
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: It's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: don't know what day it is anymore. I don't even
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: know what day it is anymore. Man's back with you
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: Possibly have, Back with you as I always am.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Until I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: yesterday it did not go well for me.
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: Own five, the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: my eighteen years doing this, I don't know what to
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: To the slump, praise, the slump.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: Discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you. I was muted.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: That's great, Toadstool Sports.
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: Uh NFL week eighteen, Man, this is uh week.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Eighteen is ridiculous.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: I mean the way that you basically have to handicap
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: this thing is I think just the just by default,
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: like if you don't have a better opinion on a game,
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: you basically should be looking towards playing on the teams
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: that are out of the playoffs, which actually last week,
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: the teams that were eliminated from the playoffs. They think,
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: we're five and one against spread, and you can guess
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: who the only one was that didn't cover. That would
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: be the also the team that might set a record
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: for being the only team ever to have no interceptions
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: by their defense on the entire season, that is the
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: New York Jets.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: They were they were the only team that didn't cover as.
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: Out of the all out of all of the eliminated
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: teams last week. So that is something to look at here,
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: and that is basically what I'm gonna do. Like, these
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: aren't gonna be my plays, but like in the well,
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: one of them might.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Be actually, well, well, I'll talk about it.
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: But when you have games where teams that are gonna
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: be in the playoffs are facing teams that are not
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: in the playoffs, I think, just by default in this
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: last week, you just want to look to the team
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: that's not going to be in the playoffs because it's
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: their final game, so they're gonna show up more often
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: than not, like just because they want to end the
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: season on a good note. It's just kind of a
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: mental thing. And whereas the team that is going to
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: the playoffs, sometimes they won't really have a ton to
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: play for in that final week and they might already
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: be looking ahead to the playoffs.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: So playoffs what I have to do it? Man? You know, uh, playoffs.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Don't talk about playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs. I just
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: hope we can win a game another game, So that
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: would be.
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: That's like the main thing to look at in Week eighteen,
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: I would say, But I am gonna have plays that
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: are kind of based on some other factors here. I
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: am going to give up three of them on this show,
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: and we can get right into it. Man, I don't
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: want to rant about what just happened now.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm.
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: Pretty pissed about the non cover by Tampa, which was
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: a dominating game by Tampa. They absolutely should have covered
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: that number. Maybe I'll rant about it in the morning
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: when I go over it to which was not a
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: great day, obviously, slight losing day. We recouped some of
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: it though with the last couple of plays which came through.
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: And then what else was I even gonna say?
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: I don't know?
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: And then I guess, well, yeah, the Seahawks were able
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: to we were I was correct about that game on
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: the show here, So there was that at least. I
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: actually put both of them in my money pool because
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: I just was trying to figure out, like, besides my
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: four plays, what's the other one I'm gonna throw in there?
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: The way that the the like the market was shaping
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: up on that sharp's it was like a sharp square
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: divide in that game, I was like, I don't really
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: have a better option here, really that I don't think
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: because most of these games are chaos. At least that
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: game I thought was a little bit more predictable, so
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: I threw that in there to some one on one
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: in my contest there in which we had Tampa two
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: and a half and that still didn't hit.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: So that's great.
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: But I still I'm gonna wind up in the money.
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: It's just a matter of how deep into the money,
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: and hopefully the these plays that I'm gonna give out
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: here will get me there, because I think I'm gonna
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: have to use all three of these in my pool
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: there in my contest because I don't think I have
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: a better option. I mean, these are gonna be my
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: plays that I'm giving out. So buckle up, buddy boy,
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: because these are these are gonna be crazy, like. People
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: are not gonna like these at all. They're gonna think
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: I'm insane, But that's usually the case. You want to
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: be fading public sentiment in these games like this, So
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: that's where we're gonna go.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: The schedule makers have done an interesting job here where
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: they have all the games that kind of matter within
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: one division all kind of happen at once, so then
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: they've moved some of the other games. So there's actually
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: a big four to twenty five PM slate, like half
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: the games are being played. Six games, I think is
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: what this is, or maybe even's seven being played in
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: the later slate, which is ridiculously yeah, and only I
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: think five in the earlier slate Eastern time.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: It's just the way it works out.
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: But there are gonna be some interesting things that happen
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: where there are some seeding terminations that might happen during
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: the one PM.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Really there's just one.
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: I think that a one game in the four twenty
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: five slate might get effected a little bit by the
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: results in these first games, which I'll talk about, But
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: of course the NFL tries to avoid that being the case,
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: so that teams they're all, you know, they're all whatever
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: result is gonna effect potentially affect another result. Those games
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: happen at the same time for the most part. All right,
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: let's look at the board here.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Now, I'm gonna try to go in chronological word. I'm
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: gonna go in.
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: Order of the board, but also chronologically if that makes sense,
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: because so many of these games are shifted around their
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: time slots. I will start with Packers Vikings, which is
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: on the one PM slate the Vikings.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: First of all, you would think that the public would
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: look at this.
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: And and just jump in on the Packers here, because like,
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: how could the Packers be this big of an underdog? Right,
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: The Vikings are up from six and a half to
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: ten and a half here. Now, the opener at six
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: and a half was crazy enough, and that was basically
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: just because we knew the Packers are gonna be resting everybody.
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: So that's what's going on here. The Packers are locked
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: into the seven seed in the NFC, so they have
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: nothing to play for here. They can't advance, they can't
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: drop out of the playoffs regardless of what happens, so
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: they're gonna rest their guys. Jordan Love probably needs it
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: because he's banged up, But I think that's bad for
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: the Packers. Once playoffs actually start, they're gonna have They're
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: gonna have had Love off for like multiple weeks. So
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: I don't love that for the Packers unfortunately, because I
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: thought the Packers had a legit shot at the NFC
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: Championship this year, and we'll see.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: If that happens.
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: Now, the line moved up four additional points here because
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: it was announced that JJ McCarthy is going to come
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: back for the Vikings.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: So that throws a little bit of.
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: A wrench into this because initially I was like, oh,
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: Vikings at six and a half, the public is gonna
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: think that that's too high to like what is going
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: on here? Vikings, like, how could they be favored like this?
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: And I was gonna say you should the points of
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: the Vikings. So you see this year after year when
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: you have a team that is going to be in
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: the playoffs.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: Well, I keep talking about this.
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: This is a team not in the playoffs versus a
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: team that is going to be in the playoffs. It
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: just so happens to the team it's not going to
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: be in the playoffs as a favorite here. But regardless
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: of whether they're a favorite or dog, I think you
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: do want to look towards that team, even though with
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: the Vikings, yeah, there's no real value left here. But
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: at six and a half, I was gonna say, even
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: though Max Brosber probably complete ass, I was still gonna
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: say I would probably lean to the Vikings here because
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: the Packers are really just gonna be They don't have
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: anybody playing in this game. Man, the Packers, they don't
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: even have Malik Willis a quarterback. He looked pretty good
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: last week, but he got hurt and he's not gonna play,
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: so they're down to third string quarterback Clayton. Tune will
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: be playing for the Packers here, and they might be
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: wishing they were singing a different tune. Although again, this
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: game's not gonna matter for the Packers. For the Vikings,
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: I actually think it will matter a little bit because
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: it's at home. You know, it's the final game they
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: get a chance to beat the Packers to finish the season.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: I think the Vikings will show up for it. And
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: the Vikings are eight.
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: And eight, so I think that is a little bit
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: of a mental motivator where it's like, well, if you win,
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: you can have a winning season if you win. Green
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: Bay kind of embarrassed them last time they played them
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: twenty three to six at Lambeau, So Minnesota should win
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: this game. It's just the fact that the line is
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: now ten and a half. I just think he can't
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: really do it. I'm not saying that you should grab
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: the Packers. I think that's dangerous, but you are looking
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: at now a double digit spread with a total ridiculously
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: low at thirty six and a half. So some of
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: these games are basically turning into preseason games where the
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: totals are crazy low because it's pretty much like the
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: offenses are just gonna be potentially down to second third stringers.
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: Kind of inept, although the Vikings are basically going to
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: be playing their actual guys here. But the Vikings do
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: have a good defense. McCarthy back, he's better than Brosmer.
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, we can say that at the very least,
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: the Vikings, I.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Assume they will be trying.
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: But at this point they have a sixty seven percent
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: of the tickets on them, which actually really shocks me,
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: and fifty two percent of the cash. Like, do you
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: really think the public is coming in and laying ten
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: and a half with the Vikings even if they know
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: that the Packers are down to a third string quarterback.
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man, I'm not sure about that. But
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: I do think that the shift because of mccarth they
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: coming back. Maybe that's something that you kind of want
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: to fade, because you know, I always talk about the
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: injured player theory spot where when a star player comes
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: back or a starting quarterback comes back, the line tends
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: to overreact a little bit to it, and you do
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: actually want to fade that, and he has to kind
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: of work his way back and the team has to
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: readjust to their roles potentially and whatever. So that would
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: be one reason and maybe fade the Packers. But I
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: don't love it at all, and I don't have to
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: worry about it because I'm going to give out a
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: play on this game.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: This game is just a disaster. It's a mess.
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: As far as like pick them purposes, I'm pretty sure
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: on ESPN it's still at like six and a half,
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: so obviously the Vikings have to be the pick there,
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: but at ten and a half, it's a little bit
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: difficult to say that you should still lean to the
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: Vikings at that point, although I think the Vikings will
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: win and the game could get a little bit out
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: of hand. Next game up a game where we do
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: have a team that does actually that is going to
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: be in the playoffs and their seeding could change in
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: this game, that is the Houston Texans against my dead
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: Indianapolis Colts.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Here, Texans are up to an eleven point favor here.
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: They are going to be public eighty nine percent of
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: the tickets, ninety two percent of the cash on the Texans.
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: Public likes the Texans now man or maybe they don't
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: like the Colts without Daniel Jones.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: I don't know which it is.
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: But the Texans usually they profile as a team it's
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: not that public because they're really going on defense and
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: they're not that good on offense, which, by the way,
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: is why.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: The total is pretty low here. That's part of the
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: reason why.
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: Of course that alone, Like I wouldn't really want to
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: lay double digits in a spot like this because the
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: total is a thirty nine. But again, I will say,
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: you have a team not in the playoffs against the
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: team that is in the playoffs, So I would tend
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: to look towards the Colts for that reason. Now it
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: will not be Philip Rivers in this game though the Colts.
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: Rivers is going to re retire now, and the Colts
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: are gonna see what they have with Riley Leonard now,
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: so he might be the only healthy quarterback on the roster.
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: I don't know, but Riley Leonard is gonna give it
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: a go for the Colts. I think he may have
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: played a little bit in some game earlier this year.
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure, but I'm not I mean Obviously, I
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: don't want to recommend a bet on this game when
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: you don't really know what you're gonna get out of
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: quarterback in his first NFL start going up against a
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: really good defense. But I still think again, laying points
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: with a defensive team like the Texans with a total
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: this low, I still think that's a bad idea. I
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: would lean to the Colts here. And if you look
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: at the scheduling spot for Houston, I mean, yes, Houston
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: is playing for seeding. Houston I believe they could still
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: win the division actually, so that's what they're playing for. Actually,
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: So Houston does have a little bit more to play for.
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: But do they really realistically, realistically think that Jacksonville is
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: going to lose at home to the Titans, which I
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: think is who they're playing. Probably not, But there is
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: the chance that I believe if Houston wins, they need
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: to win this game and they need Jacksonville to lose,
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: and then Houston would actually win the AFC South, but
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: it's highly unlikely, although those.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: Two games are going to being played at the same time.
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: So yes, Houston does have a reason to play, but
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: I just don't think that's motivation enough. Like when it
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: comes down to changing your seeding in the playoffs. At least,
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: that's not enough of a motivating factor at least not
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: to lay points. And one of the reasons, again, like
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: I said at the top of the show, that you
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: want to fade teams that are in the playoffs and
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: could change their seeding. You want to fade them when
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: they're up against a team that's not playing.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: In the playoffs.
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: That's because you're always going to pay attacks for them.
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: So I think the line is too high in the
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: Texans here.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: The Texans are coming off a big win with wildcard
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: implications at the Chargers. That's a big win, and I
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: think you could definitely make the argument this is a
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: sandwich spot because well, how could it be a sandwich
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: when it's the last game of the season. Well, that's
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: because they know they're going to be in the playoffs,
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: so regardless of what their matchup is, that's the look ahead.
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: They're looking ahead to the playoffs. They know they're going
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: to be playing next week in some game because they're
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: not going to be the one seed.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: So that is something that they are going to be
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: looking ahead to.
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: And the Texas did win at Indianapolis so it is
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: one of these second divisional matchups where the road team
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: lost at home in the first game, So I think
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: Indy might want to show up for that reason as well.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: Of course, we're talking about Indianapolis potentially this being their
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: last game of the season.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: They'll potentially show up for that reason.
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: And like I just said with Minnesota, India is also
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: eight and eight, so that is a little bit of
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: a motivating factor, like you want to get out there
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: and have a winning season if you can. I don't
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: think India's gonna win the game, but I would take
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: them to cover or the spread. If you forced me
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: to give you an opinion on that game, I would take.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: The points of the Colts. Charles, what's up? Thanks for
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: hanging out man. All right.
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: Next up, I'm gonna skip these four or twenty five
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: games that all got flexed into the later games because
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna try to go in chronological order here. A
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: lot of these games, the one PM games, are the
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: ones that pretty much don't matter. So all the games
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: that matter are pretty much of the four to twenty
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: five except I guess, like I said, that Texans game
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: does actually have some implications. One I guess the Jags
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: are playing in that time slot as well, but we
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: do also have Brown's Bengals playing in the one pm
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: slate as well.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: Yes, skip them. Uh huh.
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: This game is in Cincinnati, Bengals are an eight point favorite,
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: eighty eight percent of tickets, ninety six percent of the
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: cash on them, so the money is actually coming in
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: a little bit on the Bengals in this one.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I necessarily disagree with that.
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: Normally, yes, I would say the Browns because they are
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: obviously the better defense and they're getting a lot of points.
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: That is normally the way I would look.
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: Getting points with the better defense pretty much always the
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: way you want to look. But in this case, both
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: teams are out of the playoffs. Yes, I know it's
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: in Ohio, rivalry, whatever, but the Browns are coming off
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: basically their super Bowl. Man, if you remember last week,
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: there was a reason why I gave out the Browns
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: as a play. They got totally up for that game
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: against Pittsburgh.
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: Man, that was a huge game for them.
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: They basically came out and they said, yeah, Pittsburgh's not
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: going to win the division on our watch. Cleveland plays
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: really well against Pittsburgh, at home. They went all out
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: in that game, so after that, they might not have
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: a whole lot left.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: Although yes, they did lose to Cincinnati in the season
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: opener in Cleveland.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: Cleveland did play well in that game.
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: They only lost by one, and that was to a
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: Joe Burrow led Cincinnati team, so Cleveland's defense did do well.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: In that game.
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: That is still my one concern here is that you're
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: looking at the much much better defense with Cleveland. You're
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: talking about Cleveland has a top ten deepense and Cincinnati
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: has the worst deepfense in the NFL. So that is
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: definitely a concern laying the points with Cincinnati. But after
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: that game against Pittsburgh, I just don't know what Cleveland's
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: gonna have here.
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: Cleveland cares more about beating Pittsburgh than being Cincinnati, to
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: be honest, especially with Cincinnati is out of the playoffs playoffs,
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati is staying at home. They had an easy win
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: last week against Arizona. I would probably lean towards laying
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: the points here if I was gonna do anything with
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: the game, although I don't want to, although Cincinnati probably
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: makes a pretty good teaser.
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: Piece though, So if you're looking to do a teaser here.
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: You can tease Cincinnati down on the Stanford long style
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: of teaser, going through the key numbers of seven to
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: four and three. You can tease the Bengals down as
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: long as it stays at eight eight and a half.
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: You can tease them down to below three to a
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: two or two and a half, and then you're basically
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: just asking them to win the game. I think that
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: makes a decent teaser piece there, And of course I
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: already said I think the other one, well, you can't
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: do it anymore because the other one I was gonna
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: say the Vikings were gonna make an awesome teaser piece
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: when they were at seven and a half, getting them
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: down to one and a half, that looked awesome. But
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: now as far as getting a teaser out of these
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: games tomorrow, I don't know what you could do with it.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: The forty nine ers didn't get there with the teaser either.
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: Today they lost by tens. That sucks. But if you're
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: gonna try to make a teaser out of tomorrow's games,
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: it's really like you can't even make a long teaser.
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: Actually tomorrow, I don't even think it's possible to make
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: a long like, that's the only teaser leg you can
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: actually know it is Bengals and Bills. Boy, I don't
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: know if you want to do it, man, that's the
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: only wong teaser. I think that's possible tomorrow Bengals and
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: Bills teasing the Bills down. But if you do it
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: with the Bills, you're gonna have to do it now.
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: And I'll explain why because that line could move significantly
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: depending on the results of the one PM game, So
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: I'll talk about that shortly. But yeah, I mean, I'm
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: probably gonna recommend that you don't make a tease her here.
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: This week at this point. Skip them.
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah the oh yes, skip it. Charles, What was the
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: other drop you said I should get?
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: I forgot.
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: I said I was gonna grab whatever drop you mentioned,
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: either this morning or last night. I don't know, I
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: forget what it was. I was like, oh, yeah, that
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: sounds like a decent idea. All right, but yeah, we're
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: talking about okay, yeah, well we talked about Brown's Bangals.
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: Cowboys Giants is also in the one PM slate. The
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: Cowboys have dropped from a five and a half point
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: favorite to a three and a half point favorite. You
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: know they're going to be super public. They have seventy
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: one percent of tickets on them, eighty four percent of
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: the cash for now, but we've seen reverse line moving
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: against the public. I don't know how much weight I
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: put into that cash percentage there for the Cowboys. I
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: just don't know what the Cowboys are gonna show up
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: with in this game. And I mean, do you really
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: think the Cowboys are gonna be that excited?
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: They did be Washington last week. That was actually in
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: a warm weather game.
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: By the way, if you watch a Hard Knocks in season,
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: they were actually talking about it like, oh my god,
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be warm. It doesn't show it here now,
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: but they were talking about what it was gonna be
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: like sixty degrees in that game. So it's actually pretty
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: good weather for the Cowboys to get that thing done.
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: But that was on Christmas as well, by the way,
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: So Dallas is coming off a game where they won
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: on Christmas in primetime, so you could argue this is
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: a letdown spot for the Cowboys here after that. So
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: I do not love the Cowboys here coming off of that. Yes,
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: they have extra time off here, but they look decent
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: on primetime. They got that win in primetime, big Christmas
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: win again. I just don't think they're gonna be excited. Yeah,
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: they got extra rest, but they're kind of gonna be
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: resting on that win. They're like, don't I still don't
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: even think they care about going eight eight and one
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: on the season either. This is a Cowboys scene that
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: it's like every year it's playoffs or bust for them.
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: I just don't think they really care about pulling to
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: a five hundred record and having a non losing season.
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: I think they consider it to be a losing season anyway.
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: But they're gonna have to go up to East Rutherford
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: here and playing thirty six degree whether this time we're
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: talking about the Dallas Cowboys here having to do that.
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna enjoy it very much, man.
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: And for the Giants, I think they will show up
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: because they're still playing with Jackson dart Man. Like the Giants,
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: they're not gonna they're not gonna hang the rookie out
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: to dry here man, Like, I think they're still gonna
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: play hard for him. They looked good last week and
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: they broke a long losing streak, which I think is good.
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: Like when when you're losing every game, everything's going bad
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: for you. You gotta get that win, man. And that's
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: what they did last week. And I told you they
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: would win that game, which they did, so they got
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: the win. They broke a long nine game losing streak.
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: I think they had him won since that game against
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: the Eagles way back when Skataboo was skit scatting all
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: over the place.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: Whatever.
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: I think they're gonna show up for this one, man.
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: I think that gives them some new found momentum. Or
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: it's at home final game, they get a chance to
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: beat the Cowboys. And by the way, it is technically
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: revenge because the Giants did lose at Dallas earlier this
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: year and it was a close game, although again you
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: could argue technically the Browns have revenge as well against
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: the Bengals, but I don't.
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: Put much weight into that.
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: I do think that the Giants do want to show
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: up and try to beat the Cowboys, though at home,
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: to finish the season off, and the line just looks
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: way too short, like I don't know, if maybe the
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: Cowboys are gonna start resting some guys, I don't know.
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: I think the Giants will continue to try to win
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: and play their starters though, and give them some momentum
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: headed into next year, you know, try to give the
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: fans a win to finish the season, give them something
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: positive to look forward to. You want to end the
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: season in a positive headspace. So I would take the
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: points to the Giants in that game if I was
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: gonna play it a Sidefeld one.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: You mentioned the bubble Boy, but I don't know. I mean,
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: I guess I could grab that one. It doesn't have
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: that much to do with what we talk about here.
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: Maybe for March Madness, it does.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: Dirty Sock. What's up man? Dirty Sock is? I don't know.
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: He considers night to be the evening. I guess.
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: I think he's in the Mountain time zone, I believe.
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: So it's still pretty late there, all right. What game
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: is up next? Saints Falcons. I'm gonna skip it for
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: now because that's one of my plays. We got Titans Jaguars,
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: as I said also in one the one PM slate,
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: because the Jaguars are jocking for oh no, they're not
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: jocking for positioning. They're playing for the division really against
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: the Texans. So really though, it's if the Jaguars win,
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: they win the division. So it's very simple, and they're
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: hosting the Titans, so it's very likely they will do
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: that and win and win the division here, and I
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: will be correct on that preseason prediction. Not all of
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: my preseason predictions, but that was one of my bolder ones,
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: and I think it's.
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: Gonna get there.
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: So if anybody bet the Jaguars at like whatever it
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: was like plus two seventy to win the division prior
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: to the season, they're gonna be making out pretty well
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: here because I believe they will win this game. But
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: are they gonna cover a thirteen and a half points spread.
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: I'm not so sure. Eighty seven percent of the tickets
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: ninety one percent of the cash on the Jags. Now,
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: remember again, this is a situation where you have a
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: team that's already in the playoffs. They're in a situation
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: where they control their own destiny. So I think that's
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: even worse because you pay a huge tax for a
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: team like that, a team that knows like win and
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: they win the division, you know you're gonna have to
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: pay a few extra points for that. So for that reason,
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: I would not play the Jaguars either here I would
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: not lay the points, and again, the Titans are basically
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: just free rolling. It is a divisional matchup. It is
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: gonna be revenge for the Titans here as well. So
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: I think Tennessee does show up in this game and
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: try to win. I don't think they will, but they
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: might be able to cover. They got embarrassed at home
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: by Jacksonville Man twenty five to three earlier in the season,
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: so it is one of these road revenge angles in
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: a second divisional matchup where the road team is getting
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: a lot points. So I do like to lean that
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: way for that reason as well. So there are a
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: lot of factors here.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: It's just week eighteen.
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: You gotta worry about it a little bit. I mean,
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: Jacksonville is obviously the way better team. It could still
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: potentially run away with this game, obviously, but Jacksonville's coming
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: off a couple of big wins on the road. Man,
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: they beat Denver, huge win, beating Denver where people didn't
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: think they would be able to do that. I did
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: lean Jacksonville in that game plus the points, and then
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: they beat Indy last week. I mean that was expected,
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: but that was still a pretty big win divisional win
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: on the road, Jacksonville typically hadn't done that well. I
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: forgot to mention that maybe I should have made India play.
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: I did put it in my contest that week. But
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: whereas Indy does really poorly in Jacksonville, Jacksonville actually tends
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: to do really poorly at Indianapolis as well for whatever reason.
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: But of course Jacksonville did get the win there. Now,
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: yes they're back at home, Yes they're playing for the division,
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: but again you're.
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: Paying too much of a premium for it.
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: They're very public as well, So if you're gonna play
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: this game, I would take the points with the Titans
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: in that game, as ugly as that sounds. Titans, again,
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: they're gonna show up. They're not gonna ditch the rookie,
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: you know, cam Ward. They're gonna play hard for him,
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: try to get a win. Unlikely they will, but they
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: will at.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: Least try to do so.
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: So those are my thoughts on that is Dak playing.
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: He's never lost at the Giants. Well, there's a first
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: time for everything. The Giants are asked, yeah, I know,
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: But the Cowboys their season is over, man Like, I
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: don't really see, Like, what reason do they really have
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: to show up at the Giants in cold Weather when
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: they're done for the season. It looks like he probably
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: is playing, But I just don't see it.
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: I think the Giants will win that game. So those
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: are my thoughts on that. I just don't think that
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: that that history is really gonna be much of a
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: factor in a game like this. Most of those games mattered, right,
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: Like most of those games were not the last game
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: of the season with Dallas is a defeated team, and
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: you have the Giants getting up and playing for rookie
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: QB and having some new found momentum here. So no,
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: I don't I don't think he gives a shit about that.
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: Being undefeated on the road against the Giants, who gives
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: a fuck. No, I do not think that's a factor whatsoever.
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: Oh the last time you said good night.
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: Oh, you asked if I was leaving. I asked if
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: you were leaving. Yeah.
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: No. Well, what I'm saying is that probably almost all
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: of those wins were probably during the regular season, so
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: the game mattered.
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: From that perspective.
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: This game does not matter to Dallas, So I mean
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: that technically doesn't matter to the Giants, but I think
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: it matters more to them. Yeah, again, I think the
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: Giants win the game outright, that's my opinion on the game.
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: All Right, we have of what else do we have here?
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: One PM?
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: We're done, right, So now we have a ton of
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: four PM games starting with Dolphin's Patriots. Patriots are out
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: from nine and a half to eleven and a half here,
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: eighty four percent of the tickets ninety two percent of
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: the cash on the Patriots, so they're public, but it
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: looks like some of the money is coming in on
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: the Patriots this one. It's interesting because, yeah, the Patriots,
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: they already clinched a division. They could get the one
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: seed still, but for them to do that, they're gonna
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: have they have to rely on the on the Broncos
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: losing to a Chargers team that's not playing anybody, so
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: that's highly unlikely. So the Patriots are pretty much locked
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: into the two seed here, so they really don't have
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: a ton to play for. But it looks like they
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: are gonna show up and play their starters anyway, and
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: maybe just so that they can continue momentum at the
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: very least. But again, it's another situation where you have
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: a team that is technically playing for something, probably paying
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: too much of a premium for them, and they're playing
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: against a team that is playing in their last game
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: of the season, the Dolphins, so I would probably take
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: the points of the Dolphins. The Dolphins probably want to
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: show up here. The Dolphins are also in one of
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: those divisional road revenge angles. Or they lost at home
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: way back in Week two to New England. Now, the
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: Dolphins are coming off a nice win though over Tampa Bay,
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: so I do worry about that fact. They pulled off
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: a nice upset against their in state rival, I guess
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: in Tampa Bay, although I think they will focus on
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: New England, like they will want to try to do
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: something in a divisional matchup like this. I think New
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: England is a team that they dislike more than Tampa Bay,
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: like they don't really care that much about an NFC team,
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: even though they're in Florida now. Of course, one of
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: the main issues with Miami having to go to New
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: England in the final week.
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: Is the cold. It is cold up here. It's been snowing.
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's gonna be snowing tomorrow, but it
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: will be thirty two, so it's gonna.
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: Be technically freezing temperatures.
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: Maybe you have to worry a little bit less about
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: that because Tua is not going to be a factor here,
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: and we know Tua has never won a game in
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: freezing temperatures. He's not playing. It's gonna be quinn Ewers here.
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: But yours is a guy who played at Texas. Man,
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: I think he's from Texas as well or from the South,
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: so I don't think he's played in freezing temperatures maybe ever,
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: So I don't know how he's gonna react to that either,
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: So I do worry. Man, Like Miami, they're just a
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: team in general that doesn't play well in freezing temperatures,
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: So I definitely worry about that. One Like this, I'll
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: lean to the Dolphins slightly here because I know that
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: you're paying a premium for the Patriots, and the Patriots
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: are just crushing these bad teams. But I mean the Patriots,
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: I mean there's I don't know, there's still not as
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: good as they look. I don't think they still faced
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: a week's schedule. I know the Dolphins are a pretty
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: weak opponent, but I would still.
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: Lean that way. But again, this is like maybe one
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: of my least favorites.
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: Out of all of these today because it's or tomorrow,
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: I should say, or it is today technically because.
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: Because of the cold factor.
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: I think that is actually fairly significant when we're talking
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: about Miami. So those are my thoughts on that one.
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: Chiefs Raiders. Also at four to twenty five. Here the
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: Chiefs are four and a half point favorite. This is
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: gonna be Oh, this is an epic battle man. This
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: should be the Sunday night game between the quarterback matchup
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: of Oladokun.
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: Oladokun however he.
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: Pronounce his name for the Chiefs and Kenny Pickett for
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: the Raiders, as Gino Smith will not be playing in
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: this game for the Raiders.
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: I think he's hurt, I guess, or hurt fake hurt.
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: And yeah, Kenny Pickett was horrific in his last game
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: against the Eagles.
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: He can't possibly be that bad in this game. I
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: wouldn't think. And this is a low total of thirty six.
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be ugly.
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: All I hear those people saying, oh, the Raiders they're
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: gonna tank because they want the number one like draft
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: pick or whatever.
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: Right like they lost last week.
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: So I think it's still between the Raiders and the
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: Giants for the number one pick. Like I keep hearing
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: people talking about tanking. That's not a thing, dude. Plus,
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: why do the Giants really care that much about the
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: number one draft pick when they already have their quarterback?
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: They got Jackson Dart He's gonna be the guy, So
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: I'm not buying that. I don't think the Giants are tanking. Obviously,
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: if they were tanking, they would have lost to the
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: Raiders last week. Tanking is not a thing, dude, I'm
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: telling you. Unless guys are like having money on it themselves,
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: like betting against themselves, It's against human nature to go
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: out there in tank.
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: So they're not tanking.
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: I think the Raiders are going to show up for
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: their final home game where they get a chance to
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: beat the Chiefs. The Chiefs have been a powerhouse in
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: this division. Man, They've won the division every year for
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: like six straight years.
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: Raiders I think.
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: Have beaten them maybe a couple of times over that span.
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: But I think the game does mean something to the Raiders.
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: I think they want to show up for this Picket
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: at least still has some experience here. That wasn't his
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: only NFL game ever, even though it was bad. And yes,
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs do have a pretty good depfense, but the
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: Chiefs are the team laying points on the road here.
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: And yes, I know the Raiders don't have a good
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: home field advantage. I know, but I don't know if
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs fan base is gonna be that excited to
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: go to this game when, like, how excited do the
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: Chiefs get at all? When they're down to a third
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: string quarterback? They're extremely disappointed most likely they're not making
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: the playoffs. I don't really see them showing up here, man,
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: and the Raiders because they know that it's Kenny Pickett
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: coming back in there. Maybe they actually won't Like usually
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: you don't hang a quarterback out to dry when he's
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: coming back in like that, you know, although I guess
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: you could argue the same thing for the Chiefs.
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: They won't totally.
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: Hang a loticun out to dry either. But the Chiefs
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: are extremely public public wants nothing to do with the Raiders. Ever,
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: seventy two percent of ticket, sixty nine percent of the
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: cash on the Chiefs. But also look at the scheduling
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: spot here, man, Kansas City just played really tough against
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: the Broncos on Christmas Night at home, which, by the way,
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: that was my conclusion to being mister Thursday Night. By
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: the way, that was the last Thursday Night game, and
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: I got it correct with the Chiefs covering in that one,
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: and it was in my contest as well.
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: I went five to zero in the contest last week,
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: so that was good.
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: And I wound up going I believe thirteen to three
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: and one on Thursday Nights overall, So there you're going.
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: I think only four and two I think in my
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: actual plays though. But the Chiefs, that was a huge
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: game for them. Man, that was their final home game.
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: I think they showed up. They wanted to beat Denver
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: at home on Christmas. They only lost by seven. They
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: played Denver as well. Again, teams that played Denver they
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: have not done well off of playing Denver because Denver.
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: Just beats you up physically with that deepfense.
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: So Kansas City might come into this game a little
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: bit beat up here. So I like the Raiders in
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: this one, man. And the Raiders had that embarrassing loss
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: last week to the Giants. Like I said, no team
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: wants to lose like that. It's like at home, especially
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: thirty four to ten. They have one more chance to
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: redeem themselves. I actually think it was a sandwich spot
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: that they were in last week because they were coming
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: on a physical game themselves against Houston the week before that,
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: and there I think they might have been looking ahead
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: to the Chiefs, to be honest. So I think the
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: Raiders show up here. I think it's Raiders are passing
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: this one. Raiders plus the points low total as well.
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: That's what I think about that one twenty nineteen.
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: What season was that? I don't think they were tanking.
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: I think they were just terrible, all right.
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: Either that or there was some some like money on.
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: I don't remember which season that was. But no, tanking
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: is not a thing. I'm telling you that right now.
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: And again, all of that factors into that game. I'm
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: telling you that if you're gonna play the Cowboys Giants game,
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: the Giants are the side in that game. That is
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: what I'm saying. Yes, it's my opinion, but I've been
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: I've been doing this for a long time.
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: All right, we got Floors versus Ross, Well didn't they?
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: They fired Flores, didn't they? I don't know.
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: Like again, tanking is against human nature. I'm telling you this,
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: Like when guys get Tanking is not a thing. Like
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: when guys get out there, you don't want to intentionally
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: lose the game.
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: Like it's just not like these.
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: Guys are they are professional athletes, Like they just don't
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: get out there and intentionally lose.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: No.
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: Well, yeah, okay, I'm a contrarian, but I'm also correct
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: about it. I understand human nature and that's what I
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: apply to all sports handicapping, and that's why I've been
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: a winner at it for almost two decades.
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: So all right, we have what else do we have here?
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: And I'm also extremely fucking pissed about some of the
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: games today, if you can't tell.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: We also have what's the next game? At four twenty five? Here?
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I skipped a bunch. Lions Bears is gonna
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: be one of my plays, so I'll hold off on that.
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: You're really gonna love what I have to say about
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: that game. No, management does not control what the players
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: do once they're on the field. Like even if management says, hey, guys,
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: go tank, they're just not gonna like their reaction be
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: like fuck you. I'm pretty sure these guys are still
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: playing for contracts too, Like these guys don't know where
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: they're gonna be the next year in some cases, so
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: they don't want to just go out and look horrible. Uh,
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: because teams are gonna be watching the film and stuff.
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: So guys are playing for their own individual reasons, playing
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: for contracts as well. So no, it is not a thing,
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: regardless of what management is saying. I mean, there is
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: a situation where like maybe guys won't be as motivated
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: to play for.
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: Certain like owners and coaches that are just asked.
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: But when you get out on the field, like you're
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: not gonna just let a guy like beat you up,
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: Like it's just not a thing, Like you throw yourself
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: into a fighting ring and and try to just tank,
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: like for no reason other than for oh my god,
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: our team can get the number one draft pick. You
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: might not even be on that team next year. Who, like,
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: the players are not gonna give a shit about that.
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: And teams fuck up the number one draft pick so
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: much it's like getting the number one draft pick is
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: a fucking curse more than anything else. Like teams almost
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: every time get it fucking wrong. Like look at cam Ward,
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: is he good? No? Is he ever gonna be good?
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: I don't think so. No, All right, we got.
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: And Caleb Williams is still horrible and gay by the way,
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: so he's not good either.
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: His stats this year are actually basically the exact stats
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: that Mitch Trubisky had.
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: In his second season.
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: So way to go, Chicago Bears. All right, we got uh,
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: what's next year because.
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: I'm skipping that one for you know what I'm gonna.
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: Say about Lions Bears probably Jets Bills is the next
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: game at four pm.
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: The Bills.
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: We're gonna be a fourteen point favorite, and now it's eight,
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: So already it seems like the line is kind of
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: moving because there's some uncertainty here as far as who's
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: gonna play for the Bills because the Bills don't have
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: that much to play for. Really, it's just seeding, and
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: everybody's gonna kind of overstate this, like you're gonna hear
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: in the media all week basically two things one well,
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: basically the same thing, but an AFC side of it,
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: in the NFC side of it. For the AFC, what's
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: gonna be the narrative here, It's gonna be these teams
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: have to play for seeding because they want to make
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: sure that, like if they're gonna be a wildcard like
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: the Bills.
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: The Bills are gonna be a wildcard.
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: They want to make sure that they get to go
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: to the divisional winner of the NFS of the AFC North, right,
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: Raven Steelers, like the Bills, want to make sure that
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: they draw them as an opponent, right, and not some
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: better opponent like who else would they would they have
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: to face in the first round like the Patriots, I
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: guess would be their likely opponent there. That's gonna be
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: the narrative. I think it's bullshit like that. That's all
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: just media fodder. And by the way, when it comes
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: to the first round of the playoffs, that team that
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: everybody wants to play because they're so bad, that team
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: always gets extra motivated.
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: That was like the.
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: Texans last year. I give it a play on the
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: Texas for that reason last year. This year, it's mostly
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: gonna be the winner of the AFC the NFC celt
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: this year though, So keep that in mind. But I
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: think I said NFC here, but I met AFC North
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: for Raven Steelers. But it's gonna be the Raven Steelers.
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: That's gonna be the narrative for them. But it's also
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be even more so the narrative for Panthers Buccaneers.
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: So that's.
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: You know, keep that in mind. I guess just crushing.
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: What's up, man, Patriots is gonna run a Super Bowl?
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: Heater? I am. I've had a weird relationship with the Patriots.
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: Let's say, because I am from Boston, I'm from New England.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: I root for all the Boston proper teams.
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: I root of the Patriots up until they got Belichick
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: and Brady because I fucking hated both those guys.
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: I hated the team, absolutely hated him.
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: Thought they were essentially the Evil Empire and basically the
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: football version of the Yankees.
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: Now that those guys are gone and Belichick.
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: Is like basically pulling all this bullshit and anti Drake
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: May and all this shit, I'm basically like, fuck Belichick,
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: and I'm like kind of on the side of the
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: Patriots again here. But I also don't think they're gonna
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: win the Super Bowl this year. I think they have
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: good years ahead in the future. I don't think they're
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: gonna win a Super Bowl this year.
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: Though.
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: Drake May he's good, yeah, I mean he has there's
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: room for improvement there for sure. As well, the Patriots,
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: their defense, first of all, is just not good enough,
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: and they have not played a difficult schedule whatsoever.
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: They have.
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: They have literally one win against a team with a
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: winning record this year. So yeah, you know, I'm gonna
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: be looking to fade the Patriots from a betting perspective
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: in the playoffs. Man, that's just the way that it is.
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: But yeah, okay, Bills. Now, the Bills are already down
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: to an eight point favorite here. They're very public, ninety
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: four percent of tickets, eighty seven percent of the cash.
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: The public wants absolutely nothing to do with the Jets.
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, the Jets. Even if they're like you, people
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: are gonna argue the Jets are tanking.
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: I don't think they are.
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: I think they're just this miserable. They're just this bad
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: of an organization. The Jets might be the first team
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: ever to have no interceptions by their defense on the
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: entire season. And by the way, they've already become the
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: first team to never have an interception in a sixteen
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: game season, so they already have accomplished that. But now
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: because because we're now expanded to seventeen games, they might
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: accomplish that here, which is absolutely outrageous to think that
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: that's the case, which does mean the Jets are probably
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: a little bit undervalued, because if you have a team
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: that's that like net negative in the turnover department, there's
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: some positive regression in store there.
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's just crazy that that's a stat.
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: This game, by the way, low total thirty seven, So
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: total being that low, I kind of would want to
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: lead towards taking the points here. That is what I
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: would do, by the way, if I was gonna play
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: this game, I would take the points with the Jets.
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: But it's gonna be a weird game because, as I
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: was alluding to it before, because the Bills playoff spot
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: could be decided by the one PM games, which is
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: basically what happens with the Texans and the Jaguars. The
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: Bills might wind up locked into what seed would they
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: be locked into? I don't even know, the five, the six,
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: whichever seed it is, the Bills would get locked into
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: one of those seeds. So the Bills might literally not
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: have anything to play for here because they'll be locked
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: into whatever seed it is. I don't remember what scenario
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: that happens, but if that happens, you're gonna see this
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: line drop further, because I think that means the Bills
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: if they have nothing to play for. I think the
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: Bills might rest their guys in this one, man, And
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: it looks like maybe they might start doing it anyway,
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: because that line did drop to eight for a reason,
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: Like if the Bills are actually gonna play their starters,
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: there's no way the line would only be eight here.
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: So definitely something to keep in mind here. The other
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: thing is the Bills are going to want to continue
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: Josh Allen. If you remember what they did last year
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: in a similar spot. Josh Allen has this streak going
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: of consecutive games started, so they don't want him to
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: lose that, so he will start the game. And you
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: remember the Bills did that last year against the Patriots
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: when the Bills were locked into whatever playoff seed it
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: was Josh Allen. I think he played like one set
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: of downs, I think maybe, and then he was out
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: of the game. I think they're gonna do that again
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: here because obviously they don't want to get him hurt,
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: but they don't want to break his streak.
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: Fine, so I think that's what's gonna happen here. Man.
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: I think Josh Allen will play like the first set
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: of downs, maybe the first series, and then he'll be
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: out of there because they want to make sure they're
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: hell going into the playoffs. So that's what I'm expecting
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: at this point here from the Bills. And if you remember,
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: they lost to the Patriots in that game last year,
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: so a little bit more of a reason to maybe
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: leaning towards the Jets here. But you might see this
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: line drop a little bit further. But yeah, I could
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: see the Jets coming within that number here. The Jets
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: earlier in the season, Man, they were covering numbers like
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: they actually have been okay against the spread this year.
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: Just recently they've been really really trash. But and they
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: look unbelievably bad last week against the Patriots. So yeah,
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: I mean, just though those are my thoughts on that game.
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: But if I was going to play it, I would
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: have to take the points of the Jets still unc
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: I told you they would lose to SMU Man. That
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: was just my handicap. I didn't have a strong opinion
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: on it though, but it was one of those It
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: was one of those games where the market was speaking
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: Jets defense have an interception. You could probably find that
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: prop out there, especially given the fact that they don't
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: have one of the season. Probably that prop is out there,
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: but people are probably gonna want to play for it
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: to happen, like we're well, I don't know, do you
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: think do you think Betters will want to play on
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: it not happening me because it's like a historic event.
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: Maybe yeah, maybe that is what they would do.
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: So you're probably gonna get value playing them to have
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: an interception.
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: Uh, so we'll see what happens.
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, bur like Burlington, mass Uh No, not from Brillington,
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: not from Burlington, Vermont either, But no, I'm not from Burlington, Mass.
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: I actually I worked pretty close to Burlington for a while. Though.
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: Why did you see me? Maybe maybe you saw me around?
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: Do you see me at the Brington Mall? Did you
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: see me in Paul Blart Mall Coop, which the parts
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: of it that were filmed at the Burlington Mall.
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: I was in that movie. I was. I was an
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: extra in the movie. I think. I don't know.
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you can actually see me. I
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: was in a group of people near the escalators, you know,
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: the food court, the food court kid uh Sell Shore
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: is where I'm from. Cell Shore I'm all cell shore Man.
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: We got the bipe eyes down here. That's where I'm from.
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Burlington co Factory. We're more the great Coats.
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they got a lot of coats there.
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: You're from Pembroke. Holy shit, dude, I don't I don't
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: know if I want to. I don't know if I
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: want to dox.
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: Where I'm from. But that's really close to where I'm from. Yeah, No,
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: not Selthy. Celthy is not the celth Shore. Celty is
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: South Boston. That is That is different.
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: Kid. I don't know how many people are watching the stream.
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: Should I dox myself on here?
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: People?
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: People might just uh yeah, I mean people are gonna
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: figure out who I am if they know where I'm from.
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: But uh, I don't know, should I should? I? I
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: mean people know where I went to school. I guess
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: at this point I've already been fi. I mean, nothing
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: else can really happen to me.
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: So whateve Yes, sir, you were correct mash Vegas kid.
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: Why wait? Do you know who I am? Just crushing? Wait?
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: Who are you? You see me around? I don't know,
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah I was, I don't know.
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: I was known locally for a little while there mash
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: Vegas for a number of reasons. Probably not bad. I'm
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: not a criminal for good reasons. But uh yeah, Sandwich,
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: mass Yeah, I've been to Sandwich. I've had a lot
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: of sandwiches in mass as well. I've had a sandwich
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: in Sandwich before. But yeah, I've been to Sandwich sandwiches
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: down the Cape. Yeah, I've been like all over the
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: Cape pretty much. I got an uncle who lives on
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: the Cape as well. Yeah, Sandwich is closer to the
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: the start of the Cape too, closer to the you know,
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: like if oh, I'm doing it backwards right, well, if
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: you if you look at it this way, yeah, if
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: this is the Cape, like Sandwich is kind of like
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: in this area right, Like it's it's close to the actual,
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: uh the mainland of Massachusetts if you want to call
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: it that.
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it was because I was big pimp.
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: And yeah, there's a prostitution ring and that's that's why
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: it's called mash Vegas actually because of the amount of
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: gambling and prostitution there. So obviously that's where I'm from,
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: because you know, because I'm a gambler or whatever. Yeah,
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: Cape cod is the Cape. Yeah, it is the Cape.
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: Screw Cape An. Cape Cod is the only cape except
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: Cape Cod. When you get all the way down to
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: the tip u it's it's very gay at the end
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: of the tip in Provincetown pe Town P for p andis.
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: The Ming Dynasty, Yeah, dude, I've done karaoke at the
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: ming The Ming is solid.
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: The Ming.
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: They give you some real strong drinks at the ming Man.
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: The Ming Dynasty definitely hung out there.
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: The the place like burned down and then they rebuilt it,
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: which is crazy where they didn't have to rebuild the building,
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: but it burned down and then they were able to
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: fix it and like reopen it or whatever.
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Ming Dynasty.
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: It's okay Chinese food, but the you're turning me into
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: Boston toad again here now, Now I got the accent
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: coming back here, that's right.
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you banged Brent Rock chick. Do I know her?
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: I might know her Brent Rock. Yeah, I've hung out
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: in brent.
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: Rock for sure.
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: People definitely know who I am. Yeah, I was last
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: there not too long ago. So yeah, Brent dude, I've
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: had I've been in some some poker games down near
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: brent Rock as well.
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: I've done I've done some things down there.
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I've been all over mash Vegas, man, I mean
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: it's uh, I've been everywhere in mash Vegas. I mean,
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: of course I am, because that's I mean, that's where
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: I grew up, so obviously, all right, and i'm there
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: like most most weeks actually, but that means people can
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: hunt me down, and I don't want that to happen.
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: Just crushing.
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: You're gonna hunt me down, man, You're gonna come kill
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: me or something, hopefully not hopefully hopefully I'll.
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: Give you give you out some good good advice here.
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: Normalal chicks. I've known some normal chicks. They're they're pretty cool,
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: even though they I don't know some some some aspects
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: of normal. They seem to think that they're kind of
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: high and mighty. I don't know, but uh yeah, I
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: don't know. I've known some normalal chicks.
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: Pretty cool. Uh yeah. Alright, let's get man.
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: This this video is gonna take way longer, man, this
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: stream because we're getting into uh. I like it though.
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: I like talking about it, man. I like interacting with
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: the chat. Thanks for hanging out, guys. All right, what
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: game did I leave off on? I think I talked
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: about the Bills, right, Yeah, that's gonna be a weird one.
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: All right. Then we have Redskins Eagles also in.
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: The four to twenty five PM slate, and the Eagles
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: are gonna be a thirteen point favorite here because, of course,
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: keep in mind, the Redskins are down to their third
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: string quarterback here, Josh Johnson, who played last week as well,
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: and he was at least he was a bit better
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: last week. He was more serviceable now that he's got
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: some games under his belt again, He's not coming in cold,
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: you know. I mean, he's an old man, but he's
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: been around, he's got experience. He's not gonna be intimidated
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: or whatever. So I think I'm fine with Josh Johnson
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: being in there. But the Eagles were gonna be a
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: thirteen point favorite. But now, of course, the Eagles are
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: nearly locked into whatever seed they're in here. I think
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: they're locked into the three seed. I want to say
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: something like that. So the Eagles are just not playing
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: their guys, man, that's why it's down to a four
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: and a half point favorite now. And even all that
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: being said, like you could argue that's a little bit
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: of an overreaction here, but I probably would still take
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: the points with the Redskins if I was gonna play it,
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: though of course you missed the boat with that. If
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: you like the Redskins, you probably could have gotten over
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: a touchdown at the very least, you're not gonna get
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: it now. Seventy six percent of the tickets, fifty eight
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash, so the Eagles are.
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: Still public even though.
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: Keep in mind these percentages are across the entire spectrum
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: of lines. So in week eighteen, you gotta worry about that, man,
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: Like doing the market assessment here, Oh, cash percentage versus
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: ticket percentage, that includes everywhere that the number was, So
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: that includes the thirteen and the four and a half
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: and everything in between, so you gotta worry about that
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: a little bit. The total is low thirty nine, so
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: it's expected to be a low scoring game, and motivationally,
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: I think Washington is gonna show up here, man, because
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: it's their final home game. They're gonna want to get
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: a win. They're also in a spot where just two
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: weeks ago they lost at home to Philadelphia, so they're
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: in a divisional road revenge spot as well. They lost
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: to Philly a couple of weeks ago, and that was
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: I believe that was an isolated game as well, a
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: TV game on like a Friday or SAT. No, it
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: was a Saturday game, right, yeah, whatever it was. So
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: Washington's probably gonna be looking for some redemption here. They
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: want to go out on a good note. They lost
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: again on another isolated game, although they played fairly tough
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: against Dallas. So yeah, they're coming off of that, but
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: I think they're gonna show up again. It's yet again
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: a team that's out of the playoffs playing a team
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: that's in. That applies to Washington, it applies to the Jets,
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: it applies to a lot of these teams here. Philadelphia,
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: they beat Buffalo last week. Man, that was a nice
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: win for them, two straight road wins. So they're coming
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: off of that too. That was a demanding game as well.
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: I know it's their final home game, but it's kind
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: of a sandwich spot. Man, that was a big game
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: against Buffalo. I think Philly's gonna be looking ahead and
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: out of the playoffs, getting ready for the playoffs playoffs.
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: So yeah, if I was gonna play it, I would
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: have to lean towards the Redskins in that one. I
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: think they might actually win the game outright, to be honest. So,
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: oh one thing I forgot to mention about the Bills.
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: By the way, this is the final game most likely
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: at high Mark Stadium because the Bills are moving into
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: their new stadium next year, which luckily it's not going
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: to have.
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: A roof on it, so at least there is that.
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: But they're counteracting like the wind and whatever, and it's
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: gonna be a heated so it's not gonna be as
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: awesome in the winter as high Mark Stadium. I keep
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: calling it Orchard Park or whatever. It's not gonna be
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: as awesome as this. But usually teams do get up
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: for their final game in a stadium they've been in
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: for so long, so that is another factor here in
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: the Bills game. But I just if they're gonna start
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: resting guys, you gotta think they're just not gonna really
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: care about it that much. Although it is interesting that
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: it is their final home game in that stadium, and
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: a lot of times I do want to play on
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: a team it's in their final home game in a
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: stadium they've been in for so long. Like I mean,
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: it is a historic event, so we'll see maybe the
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: Bills are motivated enough just to try to get that
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: win there, so we'll see Swayman playing on his head.
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: I think that's a good thing, right, That means that,
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: that means that he's he's making a lot of saves.
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: Fraser Minton, Yeah, man, the Bruins, Yeah, I think they're
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: gonna be good in the future. I wish they are
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: good right now because they were really good not so
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: long ago, and they blew it.
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: High.
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: Oh you're gonna give me a high five? All right,
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: you're not gonna treat me like Charlie Kirk. Alright, I'm
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: not a I'm a conservative influencer. Man, I'm just not.
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: I'm not high profile enough.
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: I'd probably be worried if I was, because I say
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: some wild, wild shit. All right, what other games did
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: I not talk about yet?
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: All Right?
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: We have Cardinals rams here. Rams are down for fourteen
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: and a half to thirteen and a half here. Ninety
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: two percent of the tickets, ninety percent of the cash
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: on the rams. So the public is on the rams here.
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: You know what I'm gonna say again, I would fade
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: the rams here. You got the Cardinals. They're not gonna
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: make the playoffs, the Rams will Now for the Rams,
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: the Rams are locked into a wildcard spot. I don't
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: know if they're locked into a specific wildcard spot. I
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: think they could jump the forty nine ers because the
• 56:54
  Speaker 2: forty nine ers lost, and I think the Rams have
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: the opportunity to jump the forty nine ers. And I
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: guess that's what the fodder is going to be here,
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: Like the that's why the Rams are still a double
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: digit favorite here because they're actually going to play to
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: try to win the game, I guess, because again, the
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: media fodder is going to be the Rams want to
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: you know, they want to try to make sure that
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: they play Tampa Bay or Carolina.
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: Man, like that's what they want.
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: So Tampa Carolina getting hugely insulted and the Rams.
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: You know, I just don't know that that's really a thing.
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: Like the media talks about it all the time, but
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: I just don't think these guys really care that much
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: about that, like, oh, we want to play this specific opponent.
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: I don't think they think about things that way. So
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: you look at this game, I just think the Rams
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: are favored by too many points. Here are the Rams
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: just played at Arizona not that long ago. And yeah,
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: they blew them out, but the Rams were what like
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: an eight point favorite, and now they're thirteen and a half,
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: maybe fourteen.
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: You might be able to.
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: Get two touchdowns on this, which would be better, of course,
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: because it's a key number at home. I mean, is
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: obviously too high. Like if the eight was a correct
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: number at Arizona not that long ago, this line should
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: probably be maybe twelve. I mean, fourteen is just a
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: little bit ridiculous. So you're definitely paying attacks for the
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: Rams here. And I know Arizona has not looked good,
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: but the fact does remain that Arizona eight of their
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: losses this year are by one score and seven of
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: them are by four or less. And they're another team
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: that lost at home. We have a ton of these
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: situations this week. They're another team that lost at home
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: in the first of the divisional matchups, and they lost badly.
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: So they're gonna be in this kind of road revenge
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: spot here coming off another embarrassing loss last week. I
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: think Arizona does show up here, man, if they have
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: any pride here, if they're gay, I mean, they're gonna
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: show up for it man. And again the Rams, they
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: might start looking ahead. I know the Rams didn't look
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: good on Monday night. I know they got upset by
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: the Falcons, but I don't know. I think the Rams
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: start looking ahead. I'm not gonna say they're gonna lose
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: the game outright, because that would be a bit ridiculous.
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: But I would take the points with the Cardinals if
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: I was gonna do anything with that game, which I'm not.
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: But Reid hireded what's up? Man?
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: Yes, I know, dude, they at least won for you
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: because you're a Bucks fan. They didn't cover for me,
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: so I'm fucking pissed about that.
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: Dude.
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: They dominated the game. They had over one hundred more
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: yards in the game. They kept getting held the field goals,
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: their defense was good, and then yeah, that last field
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: goal would have put them over the spread. It would
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: have covered the game for them regardless, and it gets
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: blocked a thirty eight yard field goal. They were again
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: in Carolina territory there, and they had that reversal on
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: the previous play to where Kate Oughton had caught the pass.
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know if there was enough evidence to overturn that, man.
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: I mean, it looked like he probably had stepped on
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: the out of bounds line, but you couldn't tell for sure.
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: I didn't see an anger. You could tell for sure,
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: but they still over to earned it. I don't know. Man.
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah it's Orchard Pac Yeah always Najas, that's right, man. Yeah,
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: hell yeah, man, we got a you're you're a fan
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: of my work, I see, and you're dude, we don't
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: have too many too many people from Massachusetts who are fans.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: Of my work. I appreciate it, man, Hell yeah.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: All right, I'd say we should hang out, but I'm
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: still worried you might kill me. Okay, we do have
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: Chargers Broncos here to finish off the four PM slate
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: before I give you my best pets, which you're really
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: gonna love, and one of them is in the Night
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: Game as well. So this game, the Broncos, we're gonna
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: be a five and a half way favorite. If the
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: Chargers are playing everybody. Obviously they're not the Chargers. Justin
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: Herbert has already hurt. Justin Hurtbert. He's been playing with
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: an injured hand I think, or arms something like that,
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: so they need to get him some rest. So they
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: are doing that here. So the Chargers, they're just not
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: gonna care about the game now, And initially the line
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: moved up to seven and a half. But now it
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: looks like the Chargers are not only resting Herber, but
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: they're just gonna rest everybody. It looks like so the
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: Broncos are up to a two touchdown favorite here. Now
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: could be an overreaction. The totals really low at thirty seven.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: And a half.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, do you really want to lay double digits
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: with a Broncos offense that really is not that great?
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: Probably not. But this game does remind me a lot
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: of You remember the game last.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: Year where the Chiefs were already in the playoffs and
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs rested everybody in. The Broncos were in the
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: playoffs as well, but the Broncos were going to be
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: a wild card. Actually, yeah, the Broncos were in already, right,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: I think they were, but they played everybody anyway.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: You remember that game, right, The Broncos won the game like.
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: Forty to nothing, probably something like that. So this game
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: does remind me of that. So it is possible that
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: happens if the Chargers really just lie down and it
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: just becomes a stupid game where the Broncos just put
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: up points pretty much at will, and then everybody just
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: goes home.
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: It becomes like a formality.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: Maybe that happens in this game, So I worry about
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: that being the case.
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: I think the Broncos. If it was still like seven
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: and a half.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: I would probably lay the points of the Broncos, obviously,
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: because now it's fourteen and a half and fourteen and
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: a half, I don't want to do it. I would
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: stay away, but I could still see the Broncos maybe
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: actually covering that, which sounds ridiculous.
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: Seventy nine percent of the.
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: Tickets, eighty eight percent of the cash on the Broncos.
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: Might be a game where the Chargers don't even score.
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: The man who's the Chargers quarterback even gonna be in
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: this game, I don't even know. And Denver's playing their
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: starters because of course Denver's playing for the one seed.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: Although that seeding, I mean again, it's a thing that
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: gets a little bit overstated, like, yeah, they'd like to
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: get the one seed, have everything go through Denver and
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: if they win, they get it basically, So it's it's
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: one of those scenarios that they control their own destiny.
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: So I don't like that.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: So I wouldn't really want to be on the Broncos
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: for that reason, because you're paying attacks on the Broncos
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: for that reason, because everybody knows. Oh they win, they
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: get the one on the seed. That's how it is,
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: so and they should win. I mean again, they're playing
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: a Chargers like platoons squad basically or whatever you want
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: to call it. Oh yeah, Trey Lance, right, is gonna
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: be the quarterback there. I mean, he's got some experience,
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: he's been around for a while, so he's not like
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: a totally inept quarterback or anything like that. So yeah,
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: the Chargers might be able to do something on offense
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: in this game with Trey Lance, but we will see.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: I mean that Broncos Chiefs game last year, the Chiefs,
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: I think it was who was the Chiefs backup? I
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: keep thinking it was Carson Wentz, but maybe I'm wrong
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: about that. Maybe it was somebody else. Like whoever it was,
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: I think was an experienced dude and he still didn't
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: do well though, So I don't know. I would love you.
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: Hell yeah, man, hell yeah? Do you love me?
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: I'm not gay, not gay, I mean in a hetero way.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: All right, let's go to my best bets here. Man again,
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: you guys are gonna love these as you always love them, right,
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: but especially in week eighteen where everything seems even more insane.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: First game up, we're gonna go with the hottest team
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: in the NFL, baby, or one of them. We're gonna
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: take the New Orleans Saints plus three and a half
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: against the Atlanta Falcons here. So yeah, our friend Reid
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: Harden likes this, probably because this game actually is gonna
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: determine who wins the NFC South, because we're in a
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: weird situation here where if the Falcons win, it becomes
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: a three way tie and Carolina gets handed the division
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: because they beat the Falcons twice. So in the three
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: way tie, it becomes a round robin, and then the
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: tiebreaker becomes who has the best record amongst all the
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: games against those three teams, And because Carolina beat Atlanta twice,
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: Atlanta being in that mix would give Carolina the division.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: So Tampa needs New Orleans win this game to get in.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: And I actually think it's gonna happen. I think Atlanta
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: doesn't really care, Like I don't know, I mean, do
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: you think Atlanta is gonna like show up and be like, oh,
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: we gotta like, we must win this game just to
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: keep the hated Tampa Bay Buccaneers from winning the division again.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, I guess if you ask Atlanta.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: They might prefer the Carolina against it, But maybe they
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: don't because Carolina beat them twice this year. So again,
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: although I said, tanking is not a thing, so I
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: don't think it, Atlanta's gonna come out and not try.
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: But it's a bad spot for Atlanta here, man.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: And the money is agreeing with me in this game,
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: by the way, So the market read looks good on
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: this This game's at one pm, by the way, Eastern
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: fifty seven percent of tickets are on the Falcons, fifty
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: three percent of the cash on the Saints.
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: You're getting the hook here with the Saints. I like that.
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: You know, I'm a pimp, so I'm.
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: Always looking for hooks and hookers, Uh to be my
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: employees in this case, Uh, to make me money. Yeah,
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: that's a better way of putting it, all right, But
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: look at what the We know what the Falcons did
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: last week, man, So I think this is a horrible
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: spot for the Falcons.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: Where are they at here? Falcons. Why don't I see it? Oh?
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: Here they are Falcons. Yeah, they aren't home. I know
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: it's their final home game. Like a lot of times,
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: teams will get up to try for their final home game.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: But again, they already have a losing season and they
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: played their asses off a Monday night, man, so they're
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: on a short week and they beat the La Rams
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: at home. Man, I mean that was really their super
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: Bowl game. That was their big game, huge win for Atlanta.
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: I just don't know what they're gonna have left here.
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: And by the way, this is another Divisional road revenge
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: game because Atlanta went to New Orleans and beat them
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: several weeks ago. So this is another situation where the
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: home team lost and they get a chance at revenge
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: on the road.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: And I actually think they get it here.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: So I think, not only are the Falcons gonna be
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: tired of from that game, but I think the Saints
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: are gonna show up and try. And by the way,
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: the Saints weren't that bad in this game. The Atlanta
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: only had a nine yard edge in the total yards
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: in this game, even though they won the game at
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: New Orleans twenty four to ten, very misleading result and
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: the Saints had eight more first downs in the game,
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: and they won the time of possession battle by like
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: five almost six minutes, So the game was not really
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: what it.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: Looked like on the scoreboard. New Orleans was better than that.
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: And I think New Orleans is gonna try man, of course,
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: because they did lose at home to Atlanta already. But
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: it's a divisional game as well, and them in hot
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: and they're playing their dude, they're playing hard for Tyler
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: Shuck Man. He seems like he's gonna be the guy,
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: believe it or not. I was very skeptical. He came
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: out of college at a late age. I think he's
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: probably like twenty five. I thought his name was shaw.
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: I thought it was Shaw or shaw I Sug. I
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: have no idea sug Knight.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: Shuck. I guess fuck suck. I don't know that's his
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: name though.
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: By the way, for you Drake out there, I posted
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: this little nugget the other day. Tyler Shuck even though
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: he's only played like six games or whatever, he has
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: more three hundred yard passing games than Drake May does
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: so which includes Drake May's up games that he played
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: last year as well.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: So very crazy. H shuck. I mean he's playing well, man. Yeah.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: I know.
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: The last couple of games he beat some weak opponents,
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 2: but it's not like Atlanta's that great of an opponent.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: I think he'll be able to do some things in
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: this game. Yeah, that's about it, man. I think Atlanta
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: it's a it's a letdown spot. I think their big
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: game was last week New Orleans. They're just on a
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: roll right now. They had any pretty easy win last
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: week all things considered against Tennessee. Not a win that
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: they're gonna be in a letdown spot over or whatever.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: I know, it's a second straight road game, but they're
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: not going that far. It's a divisional game. I mean,
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: they're used to playing in Atlanta, so that's where're gonna go.
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: They're used to playing in domes as well, so and
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: they're not going far geographically. Orleans is the first play
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: that I'm giving you out and giving out to you
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: on the on the show here, it was wentz yeah,
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: thank you, Nate, Yeah shuck.
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: That's right, dude.
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 2: They have oysters down in New Orleans, right, probably have oysters, kid.
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: We got them up here of course at Union Oysta
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: House and shit and Neptune oysters. Yeah, we need we
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: need a bottom bitch. I'm playing on all my These
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: are all my bottom bitches today, man, next game.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: Up, you guys.
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna tell you this is a sandwich spot that
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: we're gonna be on here. You guys are gonna be like.
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: What are you talking about? How could this be a
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: sandwich spot?
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: I am playing the Detroit Lions plus the three and
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: a half against the Chicago Bears.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: I know, dude, it seems like I hate the Bears.
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: I mean I do.
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: I hate the fact that they're a fraudulent team that
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: keeps winning. But this is a sandwich spot for the Bears.
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: Dude.
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: You might say, well, like, oh, but they want revenge, right,
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: because this is gonna be one of those games.
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: I think revenge might get.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: Overstated here because yeah, Detroit massacred the Bears way early
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: in the season, which was at Detroit though, so it's
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: not one of these road revenge angles. But that was
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: the game where Dan Campbell wanted to make a statement, man,
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: because everybody was making fun of Detroit for losing that
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: first game against Green Bay. You know, Dan Campbell was like,
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: fuck you, I'm gonna destroy Ben Johnson, because, of course,
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: if you don't know, Ben Johnson, the offensive coordinator for
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: Detroit left and he's at Chicago now. And people were
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: saying Dan Campbell his offense can't do anything without Ben Johnson.
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: But guess what people are saying again now that Detroit's
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: no longer in the playoffs, They're saying the same thing again,
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: Dan Campbell is nothing without Ben Johnson. So do you
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: think Dan Campbell doesn't want to show up in this
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: game and beat the Bears. I think he does. I
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: think he's gonna get his team motivated. He's gonna be pissed.
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: You know Dan Campbell, He's the dude that goes for
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: an every fourth down and never rest his players. If
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: you remember last year, they had a literal meaningless game
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: in the last week last year, and Dan Campbell was like, Nope,
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: we're playing all our starters, that's what we're doing.
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, he's playing all his starters. There's no question
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: about that.
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: You're getting three and a half points here with the
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: Detroit which I think is a little bit ridiculous because
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: I think Detroit's still the better team, like power ratings wise,
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: there's still the better team, and this line is telling
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: you the Bears.
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: Are the better team.
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: I don't buy it at all. I think Detroit's actually
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: better on both sides of the ball. You know, Detroit
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: has been mediocre. I mean they still have a good offense.
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 2: They have an average I would say defense. The Bears
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: have a well below average defense and still believe it
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: or not an average at best offense. In like if
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: you look at all the efficiency numbers or whatever. The
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: Bears have faced a very weak schedule though yes they
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: did finally get a couple of good wins in there.
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: But the Bears, look at what they're coming off of.
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: They were in that crazy shootout of a game against
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: sand out on the Pacific Coast on Sunday night, and
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: we got away with that one with San Francisco Mintle.
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: Though if San Francisco hadn't thrown a pick six immediately
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: in that game, I think they would have won the
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: game a little bit more easily. But that game was
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: absolute madness. It was the first NFL game ever where
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: the first ten possessions of the game I think all
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: resulted in touchdowns. That's never happened before. It's absolutely insane.
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: I think there might have been no punts in the game,
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: or at least not until near the very end of
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: the game. Maybe if there even more, I don't know.
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: But that was a huge game for Chicago. Man, going
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: up and down the field with San Francisco, and they
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: were coming off the game against Green Bay where they
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: won and bullshitted their way to a win in that game,
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: as we know, because Green Bay was down to a
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: third string quarterback and fumble the ball over. Chicago had
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: to recover an onside kick to even do it.
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: This Chicago team, I mean, come on, man, give me
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: a break.
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah and now, but yeah, then again, after that misleading
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: win against Green Bay where they shouldn't have won, they
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 2: looked really good against San Francisco. Man, the public is
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: obviously gonna take notice of that. They're gonna love Chicago
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 2: after that game where they went up and down the
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: field against San Francisco, high scoring game. Public loves teams
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: that lost in a very, very.
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: High scoring game.
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: It was a total shootout. They're only gonna be in
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 2: Chicago here. Meanwhile, Detroit, they're gonna be coming off of
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: extra rest here where Chicago played the night game.
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: Detroit hasn't played.
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: Since Christmas, and they had a hideous game on Christmas. Man,
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: I think Detroit's gonna be embarrassed, and they're actually gonna
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: show up and be pissed.
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: Detroit losing twenty three to the end of the Vikings
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: unbelievably embarrassing, man, and that was what eliminated Detroit from
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: the playoffs. And even though yes, I talk about dream
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: crusher scenarios and a lot of times teams their dream
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 2: crush and they will not show up at all in
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: the next game. But again, I don't think that's gonna
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: be the case with Dan Campbell and the Lions.
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: I think they're to be pissed.
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 2: And again, they qualify as a team that is out
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 2: of the playoffs and they're facing a team that's in
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: the playoffs.
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: So that's another reason to go with the Lions here.
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 2: But if you look at this game, the Lions, they
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 2: won this game statistically, dude, two.
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: Hundred and thirty one to one sixty one in yardage.
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: I know that's not impressive, but they still outyarded Minnesota
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: by seventy yards.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: Why did Detroit lose this game? Oh yeah, because they were.
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 2: Minus six in turnovers unbelievable minus six and turnos six
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: turnovers absolutely insane. That's why they lost the game. They
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: won the possession battle, they won the first downs, they
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: won the yardage. They should have won the game.
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: They didn't.
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: And it's even more embarrassing because, by the way, Max
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: Brosmer became the first quarterback ever quarterback for the vikings
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: of this game.
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: He was the first quarterback in NFL history to win
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: a game.
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: While I believe having fifty passing yards are fewer, and
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: being sacked seven or more times in the game and
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: still winning the game, it's just unbelievably embarrassing.
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: For the Lions. Man.
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 2: So I think they are going to show up in
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: this game and they are going to be a pissed
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: off team in this game. And that is Dan Campbell's
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: mo like I said, or sorry, I guess it was.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: I don't know, fifty one or lot on a browser
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: had fifty one passing yards, so whatever the number was
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: in that one. Just crazy that Detroit lost that game.
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: And the sandwich component, by the way, because I told
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: you it was a sandwich spot. It is so not
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: only are the Bears coming up that crazy game against
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: San Francisco, I think they're.
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: Going to overlook Detroit because obviously, what do they have next?
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: They have the playoffs.
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: They're in the playoffs, and by the way, the Bears
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: are hosting a playoff game because they won the division,
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: so they already know that. So the Bears really can't
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: do anything much like I think technically they might be
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: able to jockey for seeding against the Eagles maybe, but
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: or actually, wait, the Bears they could take Wait, no,
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: they can't get the one seed because Seattle locked up
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: the one seed by winning tonight, right, So yeah, the
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: Bears are basically I think locked in for the most part.
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: I think they're locked into the two seed.
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: So the Bears really don't have much to play for here, man,
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: so they're gonna be looking ahead. I think the Bears
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: might kind of pack it in in this game, man,
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: So I do like Detroit here, the Bears really don't
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: have much to play for whatsoever. They're gonna be looking
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: ahead to that playoff game. They know they're gonna be
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: hosting it. They just don't know who their opponent is
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: gonna be next. So yeah, I really don't think they
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: could do much to even improve their standing. I think
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: they're pretty much locked into where they are. And again,
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: jogging for like seeding, when you know you're gonna be
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: hosting a game regardless, that's.
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: Just not really a motivator.
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: So and yes, technically Detroit does have that extra motivator
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 2: where they are trying to still have a winning season
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: and go nine and eight. So if you think that
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: matters in this game, I don't know if it does.
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: But Nancy, what's up?
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out.
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: Yes, losing to a team with male cheerleaders, Yeah is
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: another reason. Yes, it's the thirteenth reason why that is true.
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: But no, I'm saying that Detroit will not thirteen reasons
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: why themselves.
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: Here, I'm saying.
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 2: They're gonna show up and they're gonna play well, and
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: we're getting live value on it, and that it's a
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: good situation.
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: And then finally, of course, you know I'm on the
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: night game. Well guess you know where I'm at here.
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: Probably right, we've already taken two teams that are plus
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: three and a half. How about we take another one,
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 2: the Steelers plus three and a half in the night game.
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: And yes, I'm saying that I think the Steelers are
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: going to win the division, even though my prediction was
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: Baltimore winning the Super Bowl. Before the season started, I
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: did not think Baltimore's season would unravel and that we'd
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: be talking about Lamar Jackson like just not even putting in.
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: An effort and being hurt. Maybe I don't even know.
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: He didn't look hurt when he got hurt against stun
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: New England, Like he was out of the game and
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: he was laughing on the sidelines. He didn't look like
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: he was injured at all. Didn't look at anything happened
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: to him. So I don't know what's going on with
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson here, but he's also going to be part
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: of this handicap here. Of course, we know this game
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: is a very simple situation here to deal with as
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: far as like the playoff situation here, which every team
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: wins this game, wins the division and they get.
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: The four seed. That's it.
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 2: That's what happens here, very very straightforward. Now we're getting
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: a lot of points here. Yes, the Ravens I think
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: are going to be the public side. You might even
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: get four four and a half maybe in this game.
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 2: I thought you might, especially because Lamar Jackson is going
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: to play.
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: But that announcement didn't seem to do a.
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: Whole lot to the line, which is kind of interesting,
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: like the oddspeakers are basically telling you there's no drop
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: off between Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley. Very interesting. Fifty
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 2: two ticket, sixty percent of the cash on the Ravens.
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: They look public right now, but we're getting points and
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: Raven Steelers. These games are always slugfest, dude, Like, very
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: few of these games are won by margin by either team.
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: So getting points is good, especially with the home team
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: and getting the hook so that looks good.
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: Total is low at forty and a half.
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 2: And yes, I know technically this goes against one of
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: my well not really rules, but one.
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: Of my handicapping techniques.
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: This is in fact a situation where Baltimore is a
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: team that's in road revenge because they did lose at
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: home to Pittsburgh not that long ago, and that was
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: that game where likely Likely had caught the touchdown there
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 2: I think he did, and they got screwed out of
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 2: the game. So yes, technically Baltimore is in road revenge here,
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: but they're not an underdog. That situation is stronger when
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 2: the team is a road underdog, I believe, and they're
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: not here, so I think they're laying too many points here.
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: By the way, the Ravens were like a five and
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: a half point favorite in this game against Pittsburgh at home.
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: Now they're three and a half on the road.
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: That's crazy, like five and a half at home if
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: you give both these teams, maybe two from home field,
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: because they both have pretty strong home fields, especially Pittsburgh
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 2: with the terrible towels and whatever. Like, this line should
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 2: be like one and a half and the fact that
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: it's three and a half is ridiculous. So it's actually
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: kind of insane. So I think we're definitely getting line
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: value with Pittsburgh, and a lot of it just has
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: to do with what.
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: Happened last week.
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 2: Now, yes, I know, if you dig into the box
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: or I know this was a misleading result, I understand
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: that Baltimore actually won this game statistically. They outgained Pittsburgh
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: by over over one hundred yards, they had nine more
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: first downs, and they won the time of possession by
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: seven minutes seven and a half minutes. I know Baltimore
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: did win that game statistically, but this game is also
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: in Pittsburgh. So even though yes, it was a misleading result,
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 2: Baltimore was the better team I'm kind of throwing that
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: out of the window a little bit in a game
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: like this, which I kind of did with tonight's game
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: as well, right, because San Francisco played better in that
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: first game against Seattle.
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: Statistically than what the scoreboard looked like.
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 2: So I'm kind of gonna ignore that in a case
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: like this. Now, what I like about this is especially
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: what happened last week.
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: I was on both of these teams games last week
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 2: and went two to zero. I gave you guys Baltimore
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 2: last week, and Baltimore looked really good, putting up forty
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: one points against a Green Bay defense that's been strong
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: most of the year. Baltimore went into Lambeau and did
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 2: that and put up forty one points, and that was
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: a winner for us on the show.
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: Baltimore plus the points. I told you they would show up.
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 2: But what was part of my handicap in that game.
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 2: It was that Baltimore was in the injured player spot.
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 2: In that game, Tyler Huntley played, and I thought that
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: was actually a thing that was gonna motivate the team
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: because they knew they had to step up their game
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 2: without Jackson. I think Jackson it's questionable what's going on
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: with him? Man, whether he's injured or what's going on.
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 2: He does not look right, So that's a problem. So
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: that was the injured player theory spot. Baltimore gave us
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 2: a great performance in that game, So the public's gonna
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 2: be all over Baltimore after they saw that it was
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 2: a primetime game. They looked awesome putting up that many points. Now,
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 2: what's happening in this game? Yeah, Lamar Jackson is coming
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 2: back in this game, So this is gonna be a
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 2: reverse injured player spot here where the star quarterback is
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 2: coming back, and that just mentally, you can kind of like,
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: especially if you won with your backup, you can kind
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 2: of think, hey, this is gonna be a lot easier
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: now that we have Lamar back, right, So the team
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: just kind of will have a tendency to take their
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: foot a little bit off the gas. Even though I
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 2: know this is for playoffs whatever, but I think there
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: are a lot of question marks here with Jackson as well.
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: So not only is it that reverse injured player spot
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: where you might be getting a little bit of extra
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 2: value for that reason and the team might not have
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: total focus for that reason. But I'm taking my watch
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 2: off by the way, it's constricting my wrist man. It
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: was on a little bit too tight. I'll fix it
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 2: in a minute. But yeah, not only all that, but
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson just doesn't look right. It might be mental.
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 2: I don't know what the deal is. And he's also
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 2: not good against Pittsburgh. By the way, Pittsburgh has owned
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson is one to four in his
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 2: last five games against Pittsburgh. So Pittsburgh has done really
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: well against Lamar Jackson recently, four and one against him
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 2: in the last five. And yes, I know that does
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 2: include the game this year. I get it, which was
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: a little bit of a misleading result, I know, but
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 2: track record is not good for Lamar here against Pittsburgh.
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 2: Now for Pittsburgh, we faded them last week, and why
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: why did we do that? Well, I was telling you
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh was playing a second straight road game, they were
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 2: coming off a road upset of Detroit.
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: Big game. They I think we're.
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: Looking ahead to this game on deck, even though I
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: know if Pittsburgh won last week, they were gonna seal
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: up the division. But I told you that you pay
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: attacks for teams like that when it's win and they
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: win the division, and.
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 1: Cleveland was gonna get up for that game.
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh did not have a good history recently playing at Cleveland.
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: Cleveland got up for it and they made it their
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: super Bowl.
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: But now I think the public's not gonna want anything
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: to do with Pittsburgh after that because they only put
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: up six points and they lost to Cleveland. That looks awful.
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: But Cleveland has a better defense than Baltimore. Man, so
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is going to score more than six points in
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: this game.
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: Okay, I think you can guarantee it.
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 2: So Pittsburgh's offense should be able to do better in
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 2: this game against Baltimore. Cleveland's defense is just better than Baltimore's,
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 2: and that was a bad spot for Pittsburgh. I think
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: they were kind of even were looking ahead, man, as
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 2: weird as that sounds, because they could have stealed up
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: the division last week, But now I think they're gonna
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: be extra angry off of that.
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna do it, man.
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 2: I think you're getting extra value because of what these
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: teams did last week. And by the way, I gave
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 2: you that Lamar Jackson stat. But also Pittsburgh at home
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: has won four of their last five against Baltimore. So
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 2: Baltimore has not done well in Pittsburgh recently. So that's
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 2: another stat there, and some of those do overlap, but
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: not all, not all those games. I think there's a
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 2: little bit of overlap with the Lamar Jackson stat. And
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers, by the way, has not lost to Baltimore
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: since like two thousand and five or something, although I
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: know he played in the NFC, so he didn't play
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: them that often. But Aaron Rodgers has won all five
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 2: games against him since then.
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: I know one of them was this year. I get it.
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: I know he's an old man now, but yeah, I
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: mean that's what that's pretty much the old handicap here.
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 2: And then, yes, for Pittsburgh, I don't know, there were
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: some rumors that maybe Metcalf was gonna come back, because yes,
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 2: he is suspended. He got suspended for pulling a fan down.
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 2: The fan definitely was like doing something to him, man,
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: I don't know, fan was being a complete more on.
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 2: So Metcalf, I guess, is not playing in this game.
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 2: So yeah, that's gonna take away Pittsburgh's best passing target.
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 2: I know, but it looks like Pittsburgh is getting back
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: some of the guys on the defensive side of the ball.
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: TJ.
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: Watt is coming back in this game, so that's gonna
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: help them. And then I forget who else one of
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: the other defensive starters has been out.
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: I think it's coming back. And TJ.
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 2: Watt is a complete disruptor man, so he does matter
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 2: like he does affect the game.
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: So I think that is definitely.
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 2: A good thing for Pittsburgh. So all those things that
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 2: consider there. But yes, Metcalf, you know the fan was stupid.
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe Metcalf shouldn't have yanked the fan down or
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: but you know, the fan was doing something there and
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 2: I don't know, I don't even know.
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: The fan might have thrown something at it.
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 2: I have no idea, but whatever, I think that's the
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 2: entire handicap there. That's the night game, by the way.
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 2: So Pittsburgh plus the points, I think that's it. That's
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 2: gonna do it for the show man. So the plays
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 2: are all three and a half point dogs, New Orleans, Detroit,
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 2: and Pittsburgh. Obviously you can get a better number than that,
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 2: you could do it. I think I would still go
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 2: plus three on those as well. Got to get at
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 2: least three get the key number. At the very least
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 2: the hook is better, though, Yeah, uh, suck my ass
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 2: dude whose name basically has no name?
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: Fuck you?
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 2: Oh cool, all right, bam and eat shit, fagot fucking asshole.
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 2: Hopefully it doesn't get my channel nuked. You guys can go,
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: you know, go fuck with that guy. I'm gonna ban
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 2: everybody who comes in talking shit, all right. Uh Lamar
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: is having breathing problems. Yeah, what's going on with that?
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 2: He's turning into George Floyd. Oh god, I don't want
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 2: to get this channel nuked. It's colder and bitter.
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: It might snow.
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so yeah, but that I don't know. The Ravens
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: have the better rushing offense though, with with uh Derrick
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: Henry obviously so, but Pittsburgh is obviously used to playing
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 2: in an environment like that, and so was Aaron Rodgers
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 2: because I mean he played in Green Bay.
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: So yeah, NFL player would set you up for life. Yeah,
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: that's gonna do it.
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 2: Learn it tone on Twitter, learn it tone on Instagram.
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: I don't know what else do I usually plug here,
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: like subscribe the channel here of course, give me good
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 2: comments on here. Don't be that guy. We're on audio Spotify, Apple,
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 2: go listen over there, give me good reviews over there.
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 2: That helps me out as well. Covered in Yuke is
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 2: my yuke channel on YouTube. You can check that out
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 2: Patreon dot com, slash learn to toad and you can
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 2: get some bonus yuke stuff mostly there. And then what
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 2: else are usually plug I'm looking at I'm like, what
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 2: is this at the bottom of my screen?
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: Here? Medic are you are we seeing my desk? Oh?
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: It's the boom. I'm like, what is that? Oh?
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, that was freaking me out for a minute.
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 2: All right, yeah, and it's the boom arm. We're it's
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 2: the boo. Dude, I should get No, I don't want
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 2: to go with the Costco family guys, the the Rizzler
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 2: and whatever.
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the we got the boom whatever.
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yuke stuff patroon dot com, slash learned Toad and
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 2: you get some bonus yuke stuff.
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: Think that's where I was at.
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 2: Loser Cast is the comedies show that I'm on. You
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 2: go check that out as well, and that is gonna
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 2: do it. The poll did lighton uh Leyton might not
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 2: have even tweeted it yet.
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 2: He's got to get on that if he hasn't, though
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 2: I think Leyton is usually the one that tweets it out.
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know if there's a loser cast Twitter now,
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure, But go look for all that stuff.
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: That's gonna do it.
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 2: I'll be back in the morning for whatever else is
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 2: going on tomorrow. As far as the sports go, there's
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 2: gonna be something probably a little bit of hockey and
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 2: NBA uh, probably some college basketball.
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 1: Hopefully we can get back on track with that. That's
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: gonna do it.
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 2: And I'll rant about today's loss as well. That was
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 2: a small loss, but that's gonna do it for now.
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 2: Let's get some wins tomorrow, guys, Let's get some sleep,
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 2: big day tomorrow.
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: Peace for now.