Latest / The Fourcast / Will Kashmir attack cause new India-Pakistan war?

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Will Kashmir attack cause new India-Pakistan war? · The Fourcast

0:00
Hello and welcome to the forecast.
0:01
I'm Krishna Guru Murthy. The Kashmir conflict between
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India and Pakistan is threatening to explode again
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after a militant attack in Indian administered Kashmir in
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which 26 people were killed. The Indian Prime Minister is
0:15
promising to pursue those responsible and punish their
0:18
backers and by that he means Pakistan and the Pakistani
0:22
military. Diplomatic relations are now at
0:24
an all time low and India is also taking action against
0:28
Pakistan by threatening at least to restrict the flow of water in
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the form of Three Rivers that pass through India before they
0:36
get to Pakistan. And that could be extremely
0:40
serious for Pakistani people, their farming, their whole
0:44
economy. So where is all of this going?
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There is a huge drum beat for war in the Indian media.
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Is that where it's really going to end up?
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Joining us to discuss all of this, the Indian journalist
0:57
Manoj Joshi, who's held many positions across lots of Indian
1:01
publications and is also an academic and has recently
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advised the Indian government on its security measures.
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And our correspondent, Sukunda Kamani joins us from the
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Pakistani capital, Islamabad. Sukunda is is the Pakistanis who
1:15
have been retaliating with their diplomatic measures.
1:19
Does it feel like this is getting to a a a new high in
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terms of tension? Certainly tensions are
1:26
absolutely escalating. We saw today, as you said, this
1:30
kind of tit for tat diplomatic measures announced by the
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Pakistanis almost really repeating blow for blow what the
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Indians had announced the day before.
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For example, banning Indian flights from using Pakistani
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airspace, revoking Indian visas, closing the Pakistani side of
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the of the the border. That land border crossing with
1:50
II had already closed. The Indian side of that Pakistan
1:54
particularly actually angered and belligerent around what I
2:00
think is probably the most significant action that India
2:03
has announced so far, which is its plan to withdraw from the
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what's known as the Indus Waters Treaty.
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Now, this is a kind of rather technical agreement there's been
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in place for around 60 years governing how water from six
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rivers is shared between the two countries.
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It sounds kind of as if it's not particularly interesting, but
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it's crucial particularly for Pakistan.
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It feeds around 80% of its agriculture.
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And so if India were to divert significant amount of water from
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coming into Pakistan, that would be a kind of almost close to
2:40
existential issue for for Pakistan.
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It's not clear, you know, how quickly significant diversion of
2:47
that amount of water really could, could, could occur.
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But the Pakistani authorities today after a senior government
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meeting saying that they consider any act to divert that
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water to be tantamount to an act of war.
3:01
But of course, everyone's concerned here and in the region
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that there could well be, you know, further escalation that
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these diplomatic, this diplomatic flows that are being
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traded will be replaced by military strikes.
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And that's what we've seen happen in the past after
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certain, you know, previous flare ups of this kind.
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Manoj, from the Indian point of view, I guess the act of war has
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already happened. Absolutely.
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Meaning, you know, what is the extraordinary about the Pentagon
3:29
incident Was that for the past 20 years, tourists have not been
3:35
targeted. Tourists have not been targeted
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because the terrorists, their ostensible reason for being in
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Kashmir is to fight for Kashmir's independence.
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And so they, in the interest of the Kashmiris who benefit from
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the massive tourism that comes from India, they had not
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targeted tourists. The very fact that they have
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targeted tourists indicate a qualitative shift in the
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Pakistani tactics. And I deliberately say Pakistani
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because I have no doubt in my mind that these people who come,
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they come through an extremely militarised line of control, you
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know, a ceasefire line of control which marks the border
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between the two countries. This is extremely miniaturised
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and they can't possibly make their way to the Indian part of
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the border without assistance from the Pakistan Army.
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And and so India's belief is that the Pakistani army are
4:38
behind this in some way. Oh, absolutely, absolutely.
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They they have no doubt in their mind.
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I mean, just to jump in there, Chris, I mean, of course you
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know the, the Pakistani officials have have you know
4:50
here have been strenuous in denying that they have any
4:54
responsibility or any role in the attack.
4:57
I mean what is clear is that historically certainly Pakistan
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has absolutely sponsored pro Kashmiri militants.
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Many in Indian administered Kashmir actually at times have
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resented Pakistan's role and they see them as having hijacked
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a kind of a local insurgency that was that kind of began due
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to nationalist reasons or ethno nationalist regions and and
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tried to kind of transform it into a a more Islamist one and
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one that was more aligned with Pakistan's strategic interests.
5:31
So certainly historically, yes, there have been very close
5:34
relationships, particularly with some of the militant groups like
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Lashkar Daiba. That's the group that Indian
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officials alleges is actually behind this attack in Pahalgam,
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even though another far lesser known Group, A much more kind of
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recently established group, the Resistance Front, has has
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claimed credit for it. What's not clear to me is is yet
5:57
whether there is definitive evidence linking this particular
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attack to the Pakistani intelligence services or not.
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It's conceivable that they were involved.
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On the other hand, one questions what Pakistan would feel it has
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to gain from doing something at this time when it's trying to
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stabilise its economy. Its own government is quite
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unpopular. The military establishment for
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the first time, one of the first times in in it's history, it it
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has faced a a serious public backlash by by by critics and
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supporters of of opposition parties that that the military
6:39
establishment has been kind of cracking down on.
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I suppose conversely, you could say maybe that's the reason why
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they might want to kind of conduct A foray like this.
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But but it, it, it doesn't seem clear cut to me that there is,
6:53
there is as yet firm evidence of, of Pakistani involvement.
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And of course we do know that, you know, there is, there are
7:00
genuine grievances within Indian administered Kashmir.
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It's one of the most heavily militarised places in the world.
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There are, you know, frequent reports of, of human rights
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abuses by those security forces. So it's also conceivable that an
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attack could be carried out by, you know, local, local militants
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who wanted to, you know, put the Kashmir issue back into their
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headlines and back into the global agenda in a way that, you
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know, after many years of it having fallen away.
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Really as a, as a, as as an issue even within the region,
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let alone, let alone globally. Manoj, the point is, from
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India's point of view, they are absolutely clear that Pakistan
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has always been linked to militants acting in Kashmir.
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And the big question is, is, is not sort of, are they going to
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provide the evidence to the outside world because they don't
7:53
feel the need really. The big question is how are they
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going to respond? And Modi is talking in a way
7:59
that Indian leaders haven't really spoken about before when
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he talks not just about going after the perpetrators of the
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attack, but the backers. What does that mean?
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Well, it means a certain level of frustration in India in the
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sense now this has been going on for 30 odd years.
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I wrote a book on the 1st about the 1st 10 years of this
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militancy. I've looked at that in detail
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and Sikandar is right that there was a Kashmiri movement for
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separatism, but the Kashmiri movement has been taken over by
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the Pakistanis. And today what we are really
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seeing, it's the quality of training, it's the weapon
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systems that are used which marks out the the jihadi
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elements between Lashkar E Taiba elements from the Kashmiri
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militancy. Because, you know, and also the
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action itself, because the Kashmiri militancy would never
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have done something which has actually hurt Kashmir
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enormously, being the livelihood of many Kashmiris has been
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affected by the collapse of tourist, the tourist season
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right now. So I have no doubts in my mind
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now why Pakistan did this. And I think Sikandar also
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referred to this, that this has to do with the internal
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situation in Pakistan. It's not too good.
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There are internal insurgencies in Pakistan, the armies flicked,
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the economy is in bad shape. The polity, the most popular man
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in Pakistan is in jail, meaning Imran Khan.
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And so so the point I'm going to make is that with all the
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domestic problems drawing, you know, throwing attention to
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Kashmir and Kashmir's so-called struggle for freedom, it's an
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ideal way for Pakistan to escape from its domestic troubles.
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So that that's the hypothesis. But then the question is, you
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know, how big is the military action going to be?
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You know, we've seen air strikes the last time around in 2019.
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It's going to have to be bigger than that, isn't it?
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Well, that's my point my you really don't need meaning.
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I believe that with the what you India has done on the India's
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Indus Waters Treaty, cancellation of the Indus Waters
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Treaty, that alone is like, you know, the Pakistanis had their
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hands on our throat. We've got their hands on their
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throat. Now.
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This is a warning to Pakistan that Europe put us in a kind of
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an existential situation. We are going to put the do do
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the same to you. And so you don't really need
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those air strikes and those military that military action.
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So you so you don't think that this will be a big military
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response right now? It may be from the Pakistani
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side because they're they're going to be desperate.
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My own feeling is that the government will also incorporate
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diplomacy in this. They will get hold of the United
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States, Saudi Arabia, UAE, maybe Turkey and other countries into
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maybe China and tell Pakistan that, look, guys, you've gone a
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step too far and you've got to undo this and you've got to take
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do some systematic work in undoing your jihadi machinery.
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Now, similar diplomacy had worked a little earlier.
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India never managed to punish the Pakistani perpetrators of
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the Mumbai attack of 2008, except the one man they caught
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and who had hung for it. But in 20/21/22, the Pakistani
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were forced to jail Hafiz Saeed, the leader of the Lashkar E
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Taiba and Zakir Rahman Lakhvi, his number 2 and as well as
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Sajid Mir, who was the actual mastermind of the Mumbai
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project. And they were forced to do this
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not because on account of terrorism, but on accounts of
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money laundering charges. So what I'm trying to say is
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that there is room for diplomacy, there is room for
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coercive diplomacy, if I may put it that way.
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You know there is room for that and maybe India will take that
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path. I just do want to pick up on on
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what Manoj was talking about on the on the pressure that
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Pakistan had been exerting on groups like Rashke Teba in more
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recent years, particularly after the the last kind of flare up
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that we saw of violence in 20 in 2019.
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Because I think it is significant.
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And it did, you know, I was based here at the time with for
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the BBC. And so I saw a lot of it unfold.
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And we, you know, everyone was quite skeptical about exactly
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how firm the Pakistani action would be.
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And of course, you know, a lot of these figures were placed
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under house arrest rather than being placed in kind of, you
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know, unpleasant jail cells. But it did seem under for a
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while under a former army chief, under a different Prime Minister
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that Pakistan actually, after long having been the kind of a
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bit more of a pariah state and being kind of widely seen as
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sponsoring militant groups, actually was wanting to try and
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build a new path for itself within the international
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community and move away from that policy.
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Having seen that actually it's sponsoring of jihadist groups
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literally and quite tragically and bloodily could blow up in
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its own face with home grown, you know, Islamist insurgencies
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targeting themselves. So, you know, that that's
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another thing reason why, you know, I would just somewhat
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cautious against blindly accepting the kind of Indian
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allegations of that, that Pakistan was necessarily 100%
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behind this. It's, it's, it's possible.
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It's also possible in my view that it wasn't the case.
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You know, just as as India has long accused Pakistan of
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sponsoring Kashmiri militants, Pakistan has long accused India
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of sponsoring an insurgency in the West of the country by
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separatist secular Beloch ethnic rebels who are fighting for an
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independent or more autonomous state there.
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In terms of what happens next, you know, I think we can look
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back at the like I said, the last episode when you had a big
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attack in Pulwama in Kashmir, around 4645 Indian soldiers were
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killed in an attack again blamed on Kashmiri militants linked to
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the Pakistani intelligence services.
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India, after initially kind of announcing some diplomatic
14:35
measures, then launched its first air strike into Pakistani
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territory for something like 50 years, I believe.
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And Pakistan then retaliated with its own air strike.
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That it seemed like a really dangerous moment between these
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two nuclear armed countries that have fought a number of wars
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since they were they they became independent from from British
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colonialism. And and the only thing that
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really stopped that cycle of escalation was that Pakistan
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downed an Indian pilot and that his release provided something
15:07
of a an opportunity for an off ramp.
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But you know, that Indian air strike that we saw in 2019, to
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me that sets the baseline of what I think the public in
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India, Manoj will know better would demand to see.
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And, you know, it's a, it's a public that's also been stirred
15:23
by a very nationalist media from, from what I can see as an
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outsider. And so I would have thought
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there would be a clamour, particularly as Modi has
15:33
presented himself as a strongman, as a man who, who,
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who is, is facing down what he terms as, as, as kind of
15:41
Islamist, the Islamist threat or the jihadist threat.
15:45
There would be real domestic pressure on him to go beyond
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what he's already announced and react militarily.
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And if we look back at previous instances, that military action
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has come around a week, 10 days, two weeks after the initial
15:57
militant attack. So I think what we might be
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seeing now is the kind of preparation, Indian officials
16:03
kind of preparing the international community,
16:05
briefing foreign ambassadors, for example, about their
16:09
narrative. Pakistan's trying to do the
16:10
same, laying the groundwork potentially for some kind of
16:14
military action that could, I think, quite likely supersede
16:17
what we've already seen in the past.
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I mean, Maurice, let's just talk about the domestic politics of
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this in India as well, having talked about the domestic
16:24
situation in Pakistan. I mean, the the news channels in
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India are sort of screaming for revenge right now.
16:33
And you also have in Modi a nationalist, but a nationalist
16:37
who didn't do brilliantly at the last elections and could do with
16:41
something that pulls his side together as well.
16:44
You know, how much of a temptation is there going to be
16:47
to him to have a short victorious war?
16:50
Any war between Pakistan and India.
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The notion of victory is somewhat dubious in the sense we
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don't what would victory mean? So short victorious war, You
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know, it's almost an oxymoron in in a certain way, because both
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are nuclear weapons powers, you know, both new air distinct.
17:13
You could have a short skirmish, a short skirmish, a short an
17:20
Indian attack, maybe a missile attack, let's say on Muritke,
17:25
the headquarters of the Lashkar E Taiba, you see.
17:31
But in my view, the real problem is the Pakistan military and
17:38
unless and until there is some way in which the Pakistan
17:43
military can be deterred from its operation against India, its
17:51
military operation against India.
17:52
But now I would hesitate to say that India has no intelligence
17:58
role. Quite possible that India take
18:01
exploiting this. If you look at the long history,
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we are looking up Pakistani involvement in terrorism in
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India since 1980s. It began with the harvest on
18:13
thing and then it went on to the Kashmir thing.
18:17
Then there were terrorist incidents in India.
18:20
So this is a very, this has a very long history and if today
18:26
Pakistan is suffering a kind of a blowback, if I may put it that
18:32
way, it has only itself to blame.
18:35
So what we're really trying to persuade Pakistan is that
18:39
dismantle that machinery. We may talk of Lashkar E Taiba
18:45
and Jaish E Muhammad Lashkar E Taiba in particular, that they
18:49
have been defanged. I'm not so sure.
18:52
I'm not so sure, but because as I pointed out to you that those
18:56
people have been jailed on money laundering charges.
19:01
If the Pakistanis are serious, extradite them to India when
19:05
they are wanted on the on the Mumbai attack of 2008.
19:09
We need the Rashkari Taiba chief, Hafid Mohammed Saeed,
19:16
Zakir Rahman Lakhvi was the operational commander, Sajid
19:20
Mead and the eyesight people and there and there are dozens of
19:25
names which we got evidence. And it's not just the evidence
19:29
with us. Foreign intelligence agencies
19:31
also had picked up evidence. So that's why Tawarana has been
19:36
extradited to India. You know, Pakistan should send
19:41
these guys. They're accused of a very, very
19:43
violent crime in Mumbai, so whatever that could be.
19:50
You know, you know, as well as I do that, I mean, that's, I mean,
19:53
given the history of the relations between the two
19:55
countries, I mean, that's, that's, that's completely, you
19:58
know, unfeasible for the, for the Pakistanis to to do.
20:01
I mean, I'm not coming, You know, I'm not saying that in any
20:05
defence of, of Pakistan's previous actions, but it's,
20:07
it's, it's something that I think would be.
20:12
Completely impossible for, for, for any government, even with
20:15
the best will in the world. I mean, I'll tell you, I'll, I
20:17
mean, I'd like to hear your thoughts on it.
20:18
But the impression I got when I was when I was based here in
20:22
this region kind of day in, day out, which was kind of between
20:26
2017 and 2022, was that actually after many years, many decades
20:32
really of Pakistan being to be simplistic, the bad guy and
20:36
being absolutely a sponsor of of militancy.
20:40
Actually there had been a very belated realization even within
20:45
the Pakistani military that this policy was self-destructive,
20:49
that it was doing immense damage, not only in terms of
20:52
spot kind of unleashing militants who were fighting
20:56
against the Pakistani army itself, but also in terms of the
20:59
country's image and how it was seen as a pariah state.
21:02
And actually even within the Army, there was a shift that was
21:05
occurring. And that's why we saw, for
21:07
example, you know, the last few years across the Line of Control
21:11
after there'd been a, a renewal of a renewed commitment to the
21:14
ceasefire. There, there'd be, it'd been
21:16
much quieter, much less cross-border shelling between
21:19
the two sides infiltrations. It'd been, it'd been less.
21:22
I know the, I'm sure the Indian government might take some
21:23
credit for, for the security measure that they've been,
21:27
they've been implementing in in India administered Kashmir,
21:29
which human rights groups criticized.
21:31
But I think, you know, there did seem to be a deliberate policy
21:35
from within the Pakistani military establishment and
21:37
intelligence services to move away from that model.
21:41
And actually, conversely, in India, after having reacted for
21:45
for many decades in a much more restrained fashion, I think
21:49
compared to Pakistan was growing increasingly belligerent,
21:52
particularly under Modi. And you saw a much greater
21:55
nationalist, Hindu nationalist further and desire to, to kind
21:59
of talk about taking revenge on Pakistan.
22:02
It, it seemed a great tragedy to me that kind of the opportunity
22:06
for peace or greater dialogue between these two sides was like
22:10
2 ships passing each other. And that, you know, when one
22:13
side was, was more open to it, the other side wasn't.
22:15
And when the other side was more open to it than, you know,
22:18
conversely across the border, they, they weren't open to it.
22:22
And, and, and that's what seemed to me to be the the kind of
22:25
dynamic of the last few years. Manoj, the other thing that has
22:28
obviously changed since the last time we saw a cross-border
22:32
skirmish is the geopolitics. Trump in the White House
22:36
offering his unconditional support to Modi, a man he
22:39
clearly gets on very well with. JD Vance was in India just a
22:43
couple of days ago. So that relationship is really
22:46
good. The relationship between Modi
22:48
and Putin is very, very strong and has been over the last few
22:53
years because of that sort of oil deal that the two countries
22:58
have been enjoying during the Ukraine war.
23:00
So it's a Modi diplomatically and geopolitically is incredibly
23:04
strong and doesn't need to worry about the outside world telling
23:08
him to stop. Modi has a strong wicket very in
23:16
international diplomacy. And as I pointed out to you
23:18
earlier that along with this, that's why I'm arguing that
23:23
maybe there will be no military strike and maybe it's this Indus
23:27
Waters treaty which will be the instrument.
23:30
And this instrument is something which right now India is simply
23:34
flashing before the Pakistan, but with the help of the
23:40
international community. And when I say international
23:43
community, I mean Putin, I mean Trump, I mean Saudi Arabia, I
23:52
mean UAE. Who can tell Pakistan, who can
23:55
push Pakistan in a direction? I think Krish, it's, it's
23:59
interesting. I mean, I, I think you're right.
24:00
Of course, India is in a, in a strong international position
24:05
and, and, but actually, if you look at the language that we've
24:09
heard from the US so far, they haven't mentioned, from what I
24:12
could see, at least Pakistan. So I'm, I'm not, I'm not sure
24:16
necessarily that there's there any.
24:20
Well, I think we can be certain that no one in the world wants
24:22
to see two nuclear powers go all out at each other's throats.
24:26
I mean, it's disastrous for everyone.
24:29
And, and I, I think the danger here lies within if, if there is
24:34
one, if one side carries out what it sees as a fairly
24:38
restrained, perhaps almost face saving limited strike, how is
24:44
that perceived by the other side?
24:45
Because inevitably, the other side will feel actually they
24:48
need to save face to they'll need.
24:50
To that, that is always the fear when it comes to injury in
24:52
Pakistan. Isn't it exactly?
24:53
And then where does it go? And so I think that that is a
24:56
very realistic possibility and a massive danger.
24:59
I don't get the impression that either side are irresponsible
25:03
enough that they're really going for for an all out war or
25:07
wanting that to to to happen. That's always the danger,
25:10
though. I mean, all, all out war is
25:12
obviously horrific for both sides.
25:14
And I, I, I suppose I'm not talking about all out war.
25:16
But if you, if you, if you listen to the drum beat, if you,
25:20
if you listen to the, you know, the way, the way the news
25:24
channels are screaming, the way the speeches are being made and
25:26
the language that's being used and the context of as well of a,
25:31
of a world in which strong men do whatever they want.
25:35
And that, you know, you've got this war going on in Israel and
25:38
Gaza in which Netanyahu does pretty much whatever he wants.
25:44
And I, I think Modi is probably thinking there's an expectation
25:47
on him to hit back militarily as well.
25:51
And it's going to be quite a strong expectation.
25:54
You know, sort of the the kinds of responses that we've seen in
25:57
the past won't cut it with his base.
26:02
I'll let Manoj talk about more, but I mean, I think you know, to
26:04
me we have an interesting history.
26:05
You have a in 2016 you had an attack that that was in Yuri
26:10
that was that was met by what India termed by a surgical
26:13
strike, a very limited kind of special forces into kind of raid
26:17
just just across the border targeting.
26:18
They say military can't. 2019, you had this other very large
26:23
scale suicide bombing carried out by a militant group and you
26:26
saw an Indian air strike on what it said was a a training base.
26:31
That didn't result in any casualties as far as as far as
26:34
we could tell. So, but it was still an
26:37
escalation from what we saw in 2016.
26:39
Now we're in 2025. But the international pressure
26:41
in 20/20/19 was quite different, wasn't it?
26:43
I. I, you know, I'm going to
26:44
disagree with you. I, I don't think it's, I don't
26:46
think there's been a substantial shift.
26:47
I don't think, I don't think that that right now that, that
26:51
there is anyone saying to, to India, go ahead and do, do
26:57
whatever you want. Perhaps there was a perhaps at
27:00
that time there were less distractions.
27:02
And so I mean, the US did play something of a mediating role
27:05
between the, the, the, the, the two sides.
27:08
But I find it hard to believe that that the US would be kind
27:12
of OK with a really serious, major, massive military
27:16
escalation in South Asia, given it's already struggling to deal
27:20
with current crises in the Middle East and in and Europe.
27:22
And, you know, Trump doesn't want to see more wars.
27:25
He wants to be the peacemaker, right?
27:26
Supposedly, anyway. Minaj, you know, I really don't
27:30
see Modi pushing for the military.
27:33
Maybe the the Indus Waters treaty is the atom bomb in
27:38
itself. It's a nuclear weapon.
27:40
The consequences of the action are extremely severe, meaning
27:45
they're probably worse than war in some ways.
27:49
When you can, you starve A neighboring country of water.
27:55
So it's already a pretty serious action.
27:58
Modi has underfunded the defence establishment in India, meaning
28:03
Indian spending as a percentage of its GDP has gone down in the
28:07
Modi years so dramatically. So I'm not too optimistic in in
28:15
that front. I'm saying here we have the
28:17
Indian Air Force chief screaming about what the disastrous
28:21
situation the Indian Air Force is in now.
28:24
Is this going to be the instrument of of revenge?
28:29
Certainly one thing has happened.
28:31
The Indians are angry. They are very angry.
28:35
And yes, you hear the screams in the TV, they want retaliation,
28:43
But I think to my mind that retaliation has already begun,
28:48
and I think it's much more drastic than is being made out
28:51
to. You.
28:52
Well, we'll leave it there. Manoj Sukhandar, thank you both
28:54
very much indeed for joining us. That's the forecast for now.
28:57
Bye bye.