Latest / Cards & Categories / Ep. 140 : Feeling Loose

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Ep. 140 : Feeling Loose · Cards & Categories

• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome everybody to episode one forty of Cards
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: and Categories. I'm my Coolard from Baseball Perspectus and I
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: am joined as always by my very good friend but
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: from on the road, Jeremy Brewer from Rasball. How are
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: you doing tonight, Buddy.
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: Doing well, doing well.
• 0:32
  Speaker 3: I'm in Nashville today that we were talking before we started,
• 0:36
  Speaker 3: right across the campus for Vanderbilt, so trying to get
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: some scouting done, but they're unfortunately not playing. So I'm
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: just happy to be here at the wrong time of year.
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: Maybe not the wrong time of year, but just off
• 0:47
  Speaker 3: by a few weeks. But anyway, on the road, traveling,
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: but we can't miss out on a good podcast. So
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: excited to be here, excited to chat with some baseball.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, maybe not the greatest year or to
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: have been in Nashville trying to see some Vandy baseball.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: This is not their finest year. It's kind of an
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: upside down SEC standings that LSU has also been bottom
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: three along with South Carolina and Missoo bringing up the
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: rear pretty much as always in the SEC that my
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: littlest brother went to MISSOO and I am always like
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: do you ever go to any baseball games, and like
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: because Max Sures went through there and stuff, and I
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: think Ian Kinsler too. I was like, you know, maybe
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: it's a good program. He's like, no, not since Ian
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Kinsler Max Schures are and that makes me feel old.
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, let's let's not talk about that.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, it will be a good weekend for college baseball,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: so I'm looking forward to that. You got a lot
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: of like the tourney starting to kick off and all
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: the comings and goings of college baseball playoffs, which will
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: be fun. But we're going to focus on the MLB
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: side here a little bit. We've got a pretty loose
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: agenda because you are on the road. Where, uh, what
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: hotel chains Wi Fi are we counting on to hold
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: us through.
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: We're at the Low's Nashville, so it's love so the
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: Wi Fi will hold out.
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: I think we got a good chance here, but if
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: not all just like I said, there's probably a university
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: library nearby that I can go to. I'm sure that
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: they'll allow a random guy to go in podcasts in
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: their library.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's totally totally cool with everybody who's got open
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Wi Fi networks as well as like I mean, it
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: is strange having a baseball related conversation not on Marriott WiFi.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: So we'll see if the Internet allows us to get
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: through this pod successfully. First, if you are checking out
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: this podcast, going too those show notes, I will be
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: linking to everything that we are discussing. You can also
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: find down there a ras ball subscription that you can
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: get signed up for, so you can have access to
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: all the great tools on the website between the hitter Tron,
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: the Streaminator, and some of the reliever tools, as well
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: as just supporting a great website, supporting some great independent
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: baseball media, and also supporting the writers as well as
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: I believe the subscription does also wipe out the ads,
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: which is substantial. Those things do bog down the computer
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: if you don't have the subscription. So certainly lots of
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: great stuff going on at rasball check it out, but
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: we are going to get into the news and notes
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: that are down there. You could probably tell from because
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna nickname or I'm gonna name this podcast loose.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: Feeling loose, I think is what I'm gonna go with,
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: because we've got loose bodies everywhere. They've been leaking all
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: across the big leagues. Now, I do think that we
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: have an interesting conversation here because one of them is
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: going of the new injuries, is going the route of
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: Treek schoobl who we actually saw on the field this
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: week that he's already doing long toss and to be
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: able to come back very quickly from that elbow surgery.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: So it seems like some of the agents speak that
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: was coming from the Scott Boris and John Hayman's side
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: might have been closer to the truth than I think
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  Speaker 1: I initially anticipated. In Treek Schouble, what they did with
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: that procedure on Scooble was it was a small loose
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: body that gets it's been quoted over and over that
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: was the size of a lima bean that they pulled
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: out of there. And essentially what was happening in trigued
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Schoobel's elbow was that that lima bean would become wedged
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: in between bits of the elbow and cause pain and soreness.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: And so what they did is what Boris named a
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: scoobole scope, which actually I think he might have been
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: onto something that it was like a clever bit of branding,
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: you know, kind of like Tommy John surgery or something
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: where we thought it was just Boris hamming it up.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: I think there is a newer procedure for this that
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: they've been starting to use, because well, I'll just get
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: into it. We've got two new pictures that are down
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: with loose bodies, Max Freed and Blake Snell. It sounds
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: like Bike Snell. No, maybe Max me I should have
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: maybe pulled up the actual milbe trade rumors better. But
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: they are undergoing the actual kind of scubale scope or whatever,
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: and so that will maybe make the time frame a
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: little bit quicker here than what we were used to.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: And I think it's I read that it was Snell.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: It's going to be undergoing.
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: The uh undergoing undergo a scubole scope and food has
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: They're calling it a bone bruise at this point in time.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: Which is more concerning.
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: I'm not sure if it's more concerning or less concerning.
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: It's kind of in the middle thereof to your point,
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: if you're just taking a single loose body out, maybe
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: that's a little bit better if you can truly scope
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: something like that. The bone bruise is one of those
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: that just like, how did you get a bone bruise?
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: In your in your elbow and what what really is
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: the precursors that is that now inflammation is the issues.
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: And you know they're saying he's gonna be shut down
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: for a few weeks and then they'll kind of see
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: from there, which is I think always the thing you
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: don't want to see from. I feel like we've had
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: a rash that this year, and like I think in
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: just like the last two weeks has been like Chris Bubich,
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: Cole Reagan's uh read like a number of guys that
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: have just been put on the I L because of
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: some type of injury. But it's just I need a
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: little bit of time off and work my way back
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: and then would be injured again work my way back.
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: And I think both those aforementioned Kansas State Royals have
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: already played that game. They think they're both on their
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: second since if I recall, and so I think the
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: same can be saved for Free, who's also a great
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: start this year. But it's it is concerning it it's
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: one of those or something much you can do. You
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: got to hold them and wait versus you know, Snell,
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: And I actually give the Dodger just credit on the
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: Snell They're just they're making a choice, which is I
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: think is better than some other organizations.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and it is, so thank you for correcting me.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: You were obviously reading the news a little bit better
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: than I have been from your hotel there in Nashville.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Freed is dealing with a bruised elbow. Snell is the
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: one dealing with loose bodies, and he is doing the
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: Nando needle is the more official kind of terminology. But
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: they not yea, not the scoopbol scope. It can't and
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: it can't be the be the Blake snake because we've
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: already got scoobole scope and nanoneedle, so Snell will be
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: down with that surgery. But it does sound like they're
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: getting it lined up to what you would see in
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: terms of a more typical surgery timeline there, where they're
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: saying two to three ish months, which is where Edwin
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Diaz was as well. I also do wonder if there
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: is a little bit of a factor between, you know,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: with Treek Scuoble and Blake Snell getting these surgeries and
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Edwin Diaz that you know, these are teams between the
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: Dodgers and the Yankees, and well, the Yankees with Max
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: Free kind of shutting him down with this elbow soreness.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: Treeks Scouble is going into free agency. I do wonder
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: if there is like some push right now. You know
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: at this point too, you know you can go down
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: for two or three months and still return and get
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: in tune for the playoffs. You're looking at a bunch
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: of players here that are headed towards the playoffs, looking
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: for deep runs. I wonder if that is a part
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: of the calculus as well, especially when you're looking at
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  Speaker 1: Snell and Diaz from the Dodgers, in terms of let's
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  Speaker 1: get the surgery done now, let's get it out of
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: the way, let's rehab so that you're ready to go
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: on October. Because it does feel like it's a little
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: bit like when we were going through the spat of
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: like the damaged UCLs and everybody was like, actually, every
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: pitcher has a pretty banged up UCL. It's just kind
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: of what degree of UCL damage do we have. I
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: think there's something similar going on with loose bodies here too,
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  Speaker 1: where there's an element of the volume of damage that
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: pitching does to your arm. It creates, you know, calcified
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: bone deposits it creates just other gunk going on in
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  Speaker 1: the overall elbow that I'm wondering if there is a
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: pattern here where the teams are saying, hey, let's get
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: this put out of the way now so you're not
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: dealing with it for another couple of weeks. What do
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  Speaker 1: you think is it something where the concentration of all
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  Speaker 1: these injuries is happening You think maybe because of some
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: of that prevention, or is it just the luck of
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: the dice that they're all kind of coming up snake
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: eyes right now?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I would say maybe a little bit
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  Speaker 3: more luck of the dice, But I also think a
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: little bit has to do with the fact that there
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: does seem to be a better treatment than what there
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: has been the past, and so in the past I
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: think maybe not been reported quite the same way where
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: it might just be inflammation or dead arm or things
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: like that, which are a little bit more broad terms,
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: and they're not going to get into hey, there's loose bodies,
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  Speaker 3: because now we're going to have to debate a year
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: long surgery or something like that.
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  Speaker 2: So I do think some of it.
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: Is the medical advancement, to be honest, and when they're
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: looking at and saying, hey, this guy can be out
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: for two months and be back later this year. We
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: could see that he's fully healthy, normal offseason. There's a
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: ton to gain from that, versus let's do a platelet
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: rich injection and then let's give him a month of rest,
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: Like we can just go ahead and get it addressed
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: and end up in the same exact spot, but not
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: have the concerns of will he be back, can he rehab?
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: All those types of things. So I think there's a
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: combination of things going on here. Yeah, definitely some just
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: coincidental timing, But I think really it comes down to
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: a little bit of this advancement from a medical perspective
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: where folks can actually make the call and they don't
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: have to hide behind some of those other terms that
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: are just broad. It's always like the the sore elbow
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: going to get evaluated for a second time.
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: Used to meeting Tommy John.
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: Now you know there's some different bone bruise maybe means
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: loose bodies, which means two month surgery. So I guess
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: to be seen, but it definitely seems like just the
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: nature of the game there, they're being a little more
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: aggressive with picture injuries than what we've seen in the past.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think that's very fair, and I mean,
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: I think you'll also see this kind of reflected in
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: you know, Marmo's Dad's rankings that came out this week.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: You know, Sarah's did a big update of rankings on
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: the Athletic where the top there keeps being more and
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: more players moving towards the top because we're losing more
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: and more pitching arms from the ranks, and so you know,
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: you're getting some pretty generous rises from some players across
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: the board. As you know, you've even got Shane McClanahan
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: sneaking in the top twenty fives now just because I mean,
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: the dude can barely go five innings, but because of
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: the people falling around down around him, he's still moving
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: his way up. But I think it is going to
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: be a fascinating year as we kind of sort these
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: things out, and it doesn't necessarily look like there's quite
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: the saviors that we had last year in terms of
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: you know, the Nolan McLain's, the Trey Savages is, the
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: the Jacob Misowski's, Chase Burns is those type of arms
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: really came through the ranks quickly last year. And I
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: don't know about you, but I haven't. The minor league
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: pitching has been much more meh for me this year,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: and especially like I know Kate Anderson is carving it
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: up down in Double A, but there's a ball change
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: that happens from Double A to Triple A in the
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: majors that trips up a lot of guys. I guess
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: a lot of those players I just listed off before
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: getting into Katie Anderson is not We're not immune to that.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Last year, you know, they had to go through it
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: and they did okay. But any players maybe in the
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: minors that you're targeting to try to replace some of
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: these guys or what are your thoughts on just the
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: overall talent level down in the miners.
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the first thing that I'm looking at
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: is probably not the minor league pitching. It's kind of
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: those just like back in arms that can give you
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: some volume and be in games. Like I saw one
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: of more leagues, Andre Polonte nominated today, and I'm like, well,
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: you know, a guy with a one point three whip
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: keeping him below four ARRA and the chance for wins.
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: It's a little more attractive than has been in the past.
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: Because his arms not falling apart. But from a pitcher
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: perspective in the minor leagues, I do think you're correct
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: where right now it is a little bit thin at
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: the upper miners. I think they're is still some some
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: really you know, valuable arms down in the miners. And
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: so you've got your guys like Seth Fernandez, Anthony Ivans,
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: and Tyler Bremner as another guy that's kind of coming
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: through that might actually get a chance to come up
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: this year. Jonah Tong definitely should get a look this year.
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: Even some bigger names like Secora Trevis Sikora who was
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: hurt last year. He should be back hopefully late later
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: this year, looking looking good.
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: But then once you get past that, a lot of
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: there's a lot of question marks.
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: You get, you know, a Hagen Smith, if you get
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: a Liam Doyle. You get guys like that that look
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: like they should be ready to make some of those jumps,
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: but they still got some things to work out, some
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: control issues things like that, kind of like Noah Schultz
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: who look great in the minors, but we knew there
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: was some control issues there they had to figure out.
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: So it feels like there's probably not you know the
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: next guy up. Like I said, Jonah Tong, might be
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: that it feels like the Mets, as you know, losing
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: pitchers time after time. But I think the real true
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: talent from the minor league pitching is definitely definitely further
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: away at this point with guys like hernandez a Andsen,
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: even sloan guys like that are further away. And if
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: you're gonna be investing in minor league pitching from a
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: single season league, it's probably not gonna play off terribly well.
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: But if you're playing in the dynasty world, there's quite
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: a bit out there because some guys are really making
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: some breakthroughs in the low miners.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think that's fair even with the Mets,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: like it's not. It sounds like Zach Thornton is gonna
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: be the one that's actually coming up for that rotation spot,
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: and he's looked solid, but he actually maybe disproves what
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: I was talking about with the jump from double A
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: up because he looked pretty much the same from double
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: A to triple A. So I think there's probably the
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: case that there'll be more sneaky arms, but it doesn't
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: quite feel like it does feel like a lot of
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: the easy pickings kind of came through in twenty twenty
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: five as opposed to twenty twenty six.
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: Now, yeah, I think that's fair.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's get on to the next injury, which actually
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: felled the number one player on the RAS Ball Player
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: Raider as of today as we're when we're speaking here
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: on May nineteenth, Drake Baldwin was number one on the
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: Player Raider coming into today, Catcher from the Atlanta Braves
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: going down with a right oblique strain, which is not
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: what you want to hear because that is a pretty
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: significant injury. And also on top of it, he was
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: starting to catch a lot more and I think was
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: needed to catch a lot more, as evidenced by the
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: Braves turning to Sandy Leone with Sean Murphy going down
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: recently too. So it looks like Drake Baldwin is probably
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: going to be out. My guesstimate would be six ish weeks.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: We'll kind of see, because the next guy will talk
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: about it. Sounds like it's a lot a severe compared
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: to what Baldwin's dealing with. But what do you think
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: about Baldwin going forward? Because it was a fantastic year
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: so far, to date before he went down. You know,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: you're looking at a three or three average with thirteen
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: homers and thirty eight RBI out of a catcher. The
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: reason he's number one the player raiders because of that
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: catcher position player boost. But yeah, it's looked every bit
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: of the All Star that we expected out of Baldwin,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: if not more. And so do you think you can
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: he can get back to that level when he returns
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: from this oblique strain.
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: I think that he can. You know, he's not I
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: don't want to say he's a super lea athletic guy.
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: I mean he is, you know, but he really gets
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: his power from a sprint swing path, the approach and
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: the pitch selection. And you know, he wasn't taking out
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: like the game immediately like something happened and it was
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: so drastic that we're really going to kind of be
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: watching for him to fully get back. So actually I
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: was thinking more of the four four to five week
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: time frame that I think he's going to be back.
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: So I've got a pretty positive outlook. He's never really
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: been a guy who's been banged up, and it's not
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: like it's gonna be a thing he's been fighting. I
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: don't believe he's really had oblique issues before, So I mean,
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: I'm even a positive outlook. At the same time, that
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: catch a position, which we just talked about last year
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: being so deep with a lot of these guys coming up,
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: it's kind.
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: Of been a mess this year.
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: It happened, and like your look at the top of
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: this lifts and it's like Shay Lean Leers and Drake
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: Baldwin and Dylan Dingler like like that. That's that's where
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: the value is, your hope, like Liam Hicks is giving
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: you a ton of value. Then you've got the you know,
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: Hunter Goodman playing well. But then it's just kind of
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: a big smattering of of guys. Another guy that did
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: just get hurt announced earlier today and Ryan Jeffers Handmaid
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: and so you know, we're probably spent much time there
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: because he's gonna be gone for some time. But it
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: has been a tough position, and Baldwin has has been.
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: So incredible at it. He's he's carried.
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: Some teams absolutely, and I will say this as an
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: owner of a few spots, definitely has has been a
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: boon to the position. So it's that's gonna be a
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: harrange replace because as much as Catcher was deep going
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: into the season, it really starts to mellow out after
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: like the top fifteen, whereas in the draft season, I
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: felt like you'd go down to like twenty twenty four
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: to twenty five, and now you're getting pretty dicey.
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, and I mean the next guy we're going
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: to talk about is cal Rowley, who's got a much
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: more minor oblique strain. It sounds like where it sounds
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: more like when you're kind of reading the tea leaves,
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: where like Baldwins is more shading on like a one
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: to two grade strain while you're looking at a grade
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: one strain. Pretty solidly for cal Rowley, because cal Rawley
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: was playing through this for a little bit until they
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: just like, man, you need to just take a break
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: and not do this. And it's been a really rough
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: year for Raleigh. One sixty one, two forty three, three
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: seventeen slash line sixty three WRC plus before it went down,
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: had hit seven homers and stolen two bases, But that
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: one sixty one was really tearing you apart. And on
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: top of it, though Baldwin Raleigh, you mentioned Ryan Jeffers
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: going down, who I didn't put in the rundown just
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: because we're kind of keeping a little more brief with
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: you in your hotel situation. Another one went down this week,
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: Francisco Alvarez went down with a torn meniscus. So it's
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: really there is no depth of catcher anymore, that it's
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: totally gotten into desperate times, desperate measures, where like in
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: our audio league, I've been struggling that catcher ever since
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Alejandro Kirk went down, and like I was looking at
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: Patrick Bailey this past week until like just that's how
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: bad it's gotten. Where I'm using a Haesus Rodriguez and
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: you know anybody who's playing in Arizona. But with Raley here,
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: it has been a bit of a struggle. First time
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: he's on the il for his career. Does seem like
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: he was nursing this for a hot minute. You could
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: see that in just the plate approach, where the walk
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: rate had degraded just a shade under ten percent. At
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: nine point nine, the strukeout right had increased to thirty
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: one and a half percent. So what do you make
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: of Cale Rowley going forward? Because it still was roughly
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: a twenty eight homer pace, But like do you think
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: he was still showing signs of being able to get
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: back onto the saddle of being more of like a
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: forty ish homer catcher.
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean this maybe is your medicine. And we
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: talked about this a little offseason is don't buy career years.
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: Its mean just the first big takeaway here, and maybe
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: that's just can go unstated. But yeah, I mean, I
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: think when he gets back. He's had some really rough
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: luck this year, and even last year when he had
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: his unbelievable season, there were signs of like I'm just
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: I'm riding on high on every little thing going right.
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: And I know I got a misery in mid season
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: because I wrote an article about just sell sell high
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: and Kyle Rally because there's no way this this, this
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: maintains itself. Maybe I was six months too early on
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: that one. But he's been, he's been. Was he was
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: very streaky hitter last year. I think people forget that,
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: you know, he was doing this in bunches. We would
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: have like a few week period where he'd hit you know,
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: seven eight home runs and then he'd go with with
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: two for two weeks like that. That was the kind
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: of guy he is, So I think he can. I
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: still think that there's a thirty home more power in
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: this bat. Honestly, this injury might not be as much
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: of an injury as a kind of a reset for
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: him to kind of step away. And so I'll take
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: that gamble. Am I going out and trying to bring
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: him in. Well, if I need to catch her, sure, sure,
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: I'll see if somebody's selling low on him. I still
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: think he's the guy that we drafted early. Maybe I
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: don't want to put a first round draft right, some
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: of them would give me a third fourth rounder on him. Still,
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: col rally, he's still a guy that can absolutely win
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: the league for you in that catcherp position. So I've
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: got I've got faith. I think that he can turn
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: things around. It's just the luck's got to turn. It's
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: got to lead a little warmer out there in Seattle,
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: and then he's got to get a little healthy. If
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: you put all those things together, you know, give him
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: three three four weeks and I think he'll he'll be
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: back to maybe eighty percent of last year.
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: We're still pretty gosh.
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: Strong good Yeah, yeah, totally agree. Okay, Well, we're gonna
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: stick in Seattle for our next bit of news because
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: we have Brendan Donovan going down with another growing strain
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: where it actually sounds like the original growing strain that
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: kind of put him on the al earlier in the
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: season never healed up fully. And it does also sound
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: like both of these have related to an off season
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: sports Horny Hernie's surgery, where that just kind of is
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: starting to add up towards like this sounds like it
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: could end up being a little bit of a washed
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: out season for Brendan Donovan as he's working his way
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: back from whatever kind of surgery off shoots that have
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: sprouted up now. So something to keep in mind because
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: especially like there's so many injuries and so many good
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: players hurt that Brendan Donovan I think in lots of
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: leagues can probably be cut at this point, especially because
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: you might have a replacement. In terms of who was
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: called up fro him. The Mariners did bring up Colt Emerson,
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: their number one prospect, who is a shortstop but will
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: be playing third base up to the big leagues from
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: Triple A, where he was hitting two fifty five three
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: forty seven, four sixty nine one five WRC plus with
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: seven homers and ten stolen bases. Not exactly exciting, especially
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: for the PCL, but he was one of the younger
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: players that are twenty years old, is now one of
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: the youngest players in MLB, behind like Kevin McGonagall and
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: Connor Griffin. Now this is I think one of the
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: more interesting kind of perspectives to dive into when it
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: comes to fantasy baseball, because Cole Emerson, you know, somewhere
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: around like a top ten to top fifteen prospect depending
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: on the list application. From a fantasy perspective, maybe not
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: quite as much juice, just because this is a prospect
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: where the glove is a pretty decent carrying tool as
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: well as like some of the long term outgrowth that
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: you could see from just him being in the majors
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: and being a good, solid bat reminds me maybe of
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: a little bit of like Alex Bregmany sort of bat.
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: So it's not going to be like a league changer,
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: but it is going to be a good volume bat.
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: Might take a couple of years to get there because
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: of the age. What is your take on Colt Emerson
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: of the Seattle Manners.
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's a pretty pretty similar take.
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: I mean, you're right, he's I think MLB pipeline has
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: been as the number six overall prospect, and he is
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: a really, really good ballplayer. He's probably a hit over
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: power type of guy, and so he I think, you know,
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: in a few years, he's a guy that we could absolutely.
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: See hitting two eighty to ninety. I think he's got
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: that capability.
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: But he's also guy that, you know, yeah, this peak's
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: probably gonnaybe hit twenty homers. He might steal fifteen bases,
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: Like he's gonna be a guy that's like a great
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: middle infielder or kind of the back as a starter, shortstop,
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: third base. You know, he's playing third base now that
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: he's come up, and so he can get that multi
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: position eligibility, which is great. And I think with the
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: number of injuries we've had, there's way worse guys to
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: be plugging in. But I do think it's gonna be
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: a year or two. Like if you if you're looking
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: at this year, he's probably he's worth an ad in
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: probably twelve teamers and definitely fifteen teamers, and but I
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: don't know that he's gonna win the league for you.
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: But in a few years, I think this is gonna
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: be a really really valuable bat, but he to your point,
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: it's that Bragmann kind of profile. Maybe it's Xander Bogart's
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: type of profile. There's a number of them out there
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: that are really good real world ballplayers and are going
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: to be valuable fantasy assets, but they're not the top
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: five round kind of guys. I think that's where Emerson
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: is gonna get a land in it.
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: I'm fine with that.
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: I think there's a lot to be said for that.
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: You can't always be finding, you know, the the Kevin mcgonagall's, J. J.
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: Weather holds those kind of guys, and you knowing nothing
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: against cold Emerson here. He just he's number six overall
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: because all these other guys got called up, he's probably
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: more of a top twenty.
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: Prospect if you do want to look at that way
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: for fantasy perspectives.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: Yep, yep. I think that's all very fair. On top
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: of it, too, you had not a great home ballpark
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: for left handed batters like cold Emerson, and then when
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: you also compare them to some of those other prospects,
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: it looks like cold Emerson will probably continue to hit
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: towards the bottom of this lineup. I don't know, depends
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: a little bit on what they do at JP Crawford,
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: especially when Brenda Donovan gets back, they do have a
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: little bit of a question whether or not they want
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: to continue writing JP Crawford, who's been in you know,
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: steadily regressing year over year, and maybe just letting Emerson
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: take that job over. So something to keep in mind
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: with cold Emerson, like I said, like you said, I
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: think there are much more exciting guys, even like I
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: would find like Waldschmidt more exciting, you know, in terms
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: of like whatever you bidding on wald Schmidt, I wouldn't
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: bid that much on Colt Emerson. I would find him
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: probably a little bit more towards like a Henry Bolta because,
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: like the I think the output for Emerson is going
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: to be more consistent, but the error bar on like
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: a Bolta is much wider. You know, you're not gonna
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: pop like a crazy thirty stolen based season out of
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: Colt Emerson the rest of the way where you might
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: actually get that out of Bolta if he gets full
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: time job.
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you're right.
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: I think we were just talking about it last week
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: about wald Schmidt, Ambolta and Ewen, and you know, I'm like,
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: I'd probably put Emerson two in that list, and that's
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: more because to your point, there's a lot of variability
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: on those other guys and Emerson, I feel like I
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: know what I'm getting.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: Yes, Okay, Well, we have an injury for the Mets
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: where this is what's opening that rotation spot alluding to
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: just a little bit ago where Spencer Jones smashed a
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: ball right into Clay Holmes's leg over the weekend in
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: the Subway series. Holmes actually finished the rest of that
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: inning pitching on a fractured fibula, which is just crazy.
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: But he is going to be down now, and I
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: mean they're not really putting a great timeframe on it,
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: partly because a little bit of factor here too with
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: like the Mets, where like I think Holmes is probably
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: out for two months is usually about where this lands,
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: you know, six to eight weeks, where especially it is
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: his right leg and so that's where plant leg as
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: a right footer to drive off of the mound. Honestly, well,
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: both legs are pretty significant for pitching, but I think
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: probably the one that is a little more painful, and
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: so this will be a case of also where are
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: the Mets and the standings when Clay Holmes is back
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: and ready to go again. I believe they still have
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: him for next year. Let me check they roll in formation.
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm pretty sure he's on three It was on
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: a three year deals the second year.
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: Well, it's actually a player option for next year. So
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: that'll be interesting to see what happens, because maybe Clay
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: Holmes also has incentive to work his way back. But
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: it's only for twelve mil. I think Clay Holmes is
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: getting more than twelve million on the open market, so
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: he's been opting out no matter what. But I think
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: that will be a factor of like what the Mets
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: do with him and Alvarez and all the other players
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: that might get injured down this stretch because it's falling
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: apart piece by piece, and you know now they've even
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: called up Nick Moore Beto to join this squad as well,
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: and you know they're just losing more and more dudes
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: by the day. But what are you doing here with
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: Clay Holmes because of those factors, Like, I mean, he
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: was almost free at the draft table during the spring,
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: but hes been a really consistent pitcher amongst a bunch
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: of chaos this year. A two thirty nine ra and
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: a twelve point six K minus b B, which is middling,
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: but it was fifty two and two thirds innings gave
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: you a solid whip at a one ten. The FIP
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: was at a three twenty two. I mean, sure, the
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: strikeouts were a little lacking, but he gave you everything
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: else and pitched, you know, six to seven innings to
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: give you a shout out a win. So is this
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: a il worthy player for you, in Clay Holmes or
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: is it somebody where you can throw him back to
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: the scrap heap and see what happens when he heals from
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: this broken fibula.
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: Well, I mean I just made this decision in one
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: of our leagues and I threw him back to the
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: scrap heap, and I felt a little wrong doing it
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: because of how strong of a season he's had. But
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: you know, when I was looking at my injured list,
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: I've got other guys on there that I believe will
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: be back sooner and have a clear path to making
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: an impact. And I can't remember the last time that
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: the team announced the player is going to be out
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: for a long time, and that was just the time
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: frame that they gave. It wasn't like hey two months
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: or expec him back in August or something like that.
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: I feel like Holmes, like the best case scenario, here's
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: we get like six starts at the end of the year.
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: That's just my gut tells me. And yeah, that might
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: be if if you have the free in il spot, Yeah,
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: throw him on there.
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: See what happens.
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: But I'm I'm not above cutting him at this point
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: because you know, it was he was good, but it
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: wasn't like he was unbelievable. He was very serviceable for you.
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: So I'm fine cutting him loose if you need and
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: you get the roster spot. Grin shot at this point.
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: Okay, I think that's fair, all right. Next injury we
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: have is in Baltimore, Jordan Westburg underwent Tommy John surgery,
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: which feels like this was three months too late. Whenever
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: this came out in spring training, it seemed like this
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: was the inevitable outcome and they should have just gone
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: through with it. Because now the quote around Jordan Westburg
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: is that the Baltimore Orioles Michael Lias, expects Westburg will return.
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: It's a full time infielder quote unquote. In the early
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: part of twenty twenty seven, which doesn't give you a
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: whole bunch of confidence. There is an eighty game half
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: season to twenty twenty seven that would be considered maybe
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: the early part. And especially we've seen players kind of
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: struggle with this Tommy John surgery where I mean we
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: saw a quick, quick return from Bryce Harper, Jason Dimingez
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: has kind of it seems like it's lingered with the
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: one that he had, and so I don't I used
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: to be a little bit more optimistic when position players
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: were getting Tommy John surgery, but I think it does
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: take a full twelve months to really get feel and right.
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: That puts you right at this time again. Memorial Day
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: for Jordan Westburg next year, who will be turning twenty
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: eight in February. Time really snuck up us, snuck up
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: on us fast with Tory and Westburg. But what are
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: you doing with him going forward? Because this guy was
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: somebody that you and I were both into. He was
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: really great coming through the miners. Has not been able
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: to stay healthy and this this is a pretty significant
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: surgery that he's got to work his way back from
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: and then fight his way through whoever jumps aheadline of him.
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: In Baltimore, Yeah, this one's really tough because there's so
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: much like under the Covers with Jordan Westburg, and this
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: feels like a bat that could this is a thirty
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: five homer bat. I don't feel like I'm over selling
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: at that point, Like in a fully healthy approach, he
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: is going to hit thirty five homers, driving ninety runs,
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: hit two sixty, maybe creep up two seventy five on
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: a good year. Like there's a ton of value here
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: that is from an infielder perspective.
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: But I'm with you.
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: I think it takes about a year to get back
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: from something like this anymore, and with kind of the
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: way that the Orioles have handled him, I just don't
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: want to go through that, and so I'm I'm I'm
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: probably treating him as kind of one of those like
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: Dynasty keeper League stash kind of guys that I'm going
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: to target the offseason when he's gonna be cheap because
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: nobody wants to deal with it. Because I still think
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: there's long term value to him. I think that he
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: can be but I'm concerned about the how Longston taking
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: you back because I think it's fair to say twenty
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: twenty eight.
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: It's like what your target is for Jordan Westberg to be.
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: Like a full time healthy player, and that's what is
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: There'll be his twenty twenty twenty nine year old season. Man,
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: that's that that's.
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: Hard to lean into.
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: So yeah, if I can pick up a cheap share
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: here or there and hold on to it without big penalty,
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: I'm I'm on it. But I'm otherwise I'm kind of
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: just forgetting about Jordan Westberg fix here year and a half.
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think I'm there with you. Where like,
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: if it cost me nothing to tack him on at
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: the end of a roster, a draft, or he's a
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: one dollar keeper in like a huge dynasty situation like Autune,
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: then yeah, I'll think about it. But otherwise I don't
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: think you need to be burning too much of your
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: brain capital on Jordan Westburg going forward. Uh okay. Next
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: injury we have is one of those UCL issues that
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: has cropped up, which I mean, this one really sucks
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: because Robbie Snelling mid his debut. We talked about it
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: literally last week, where he had a bad first inning
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: and it kind of unraveled on him. It made the
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: stat line look much worse than it actually was performance wise, well,
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: there might have been something looking there because he went
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: down with a UCL sprain. In the meantime, everything here
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: looks like it's gonna be a Tommy John for Robbie
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: Snelling as we're speaking on May nineteenth. But I guess
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: there's a possibility he could go like the PRP route
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: or the other restern rehab. But I mean the ominous news,
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: the way that it broke, and then just the way
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: that they've been really slow playing the second opinions and
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: something and everything else was Snelling. It does seem like
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: it's going to line up for Tommy John surgery. Kind
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: Of an interesting situation here for the Marlins because they
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: released Chris Paddock to bring up Robbie Snelling, then they
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: brought up Braxton Garrett for Robbie Smelling spot. Robbie or
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: Braxton Garrett looked like absolute garbage the two outings that
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: he put together. That like in the first one he
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: walked the bases loaded twice and got shredded by the Twins.
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: Today he pitched this afternoon against the Braves, got shredded,
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: and then got optioned right after the game. I watched
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: the game. He looked awful that like I almost wonder
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: if Braxton Garrett is nursing something too, because something changed,
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: Like I was really excited for him. I was holding
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: him in a couple of places. He started the season.
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: In his first four games at Triple A was a
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: point seven to seven with or a point seven to
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: seven ear Ray with twenty three k's to eight walks
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: or yeah, twenty three k's eight walks over twenty three
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: and a third innings with the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, and
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: then since then he's just like can't stop walking. Everybody
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: is a guy who has gone through a couple of
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: Tommy Johns that, like you do, worry about the health arm,
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: the health of the arm for Braxton Garrett, another guy
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: who got old fast. Will be twenty nine in August,
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: so we'll be fascinating to see what they do with
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: Braxton Garrett as well as like trying to see who
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: will probably fill this rotation spot. It's likely gonna be
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: Ryan Gusto or Dax Fulton, but the Marlins have Thomas
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: White hanging out. They've also had Carson Millbrandt has been
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: pitching out of his mind at Double A, and I
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: wonder if he gets a shot here soon. There's just
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: a lot of interesting arms in that Marlin system. So
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: I guess with all that I gave a lot of
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: arms for you to maybe contemplate that to see. I
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: know Thomas White would probably be your favorite, But if
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: there's any other kind of leaders in the clubhouse for
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: that rotation spot that you like, let me know. And
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: then what are you doing with Robbie Snelling? Because this
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: is a guy who looked really great before he came up.
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: Like I said, he's probably going for TJ. But in
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: a dynasty keeper situation, it's still going to be pretty
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: young going into next year and is going to be
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: somebody who I think could be back at the end
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: of next year if it is like a especially if
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: it's just like a brace situation. But we'll see what
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: they do with Snelling. What are you doing with the
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: Marlins and Robbie Snelling?
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the Marlins got thin fast you you
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: called it all correctly. I'm I think Thomas White is
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: the most interesting, but he's he's struggled a little in
• 38:26
  Speaker 3: the minors this year. His control has not been good.
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: Snelling has some droll issues, and he was making White
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: look even worse because Snelling looked like the ace and
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: why you just couldn't keep everybody off the base paths.
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: So I'm pretty much avoiding the situation, to be honest, like,
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: and I feel like Moore's coming because you know, you
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: just have to imagine with the top of that rotation
• 38:48
  Speaker 3: being you know, Max Meyer, Samuel contre Uri, Perez like
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: a Contera, Like at some point he's gotta get traded, right,
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: There's probably no doubt in that Perez and Max Meyer
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: not the sascillly the moticums of health for us. And
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: so I'm I'm kind of avoiding this situation. It just
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: doesn't feel like something I want to get into from
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: a snelling perspective. Man, he looked so good into last year.
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: He looked not as good this this this spring, that
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: the walks had jumped up a little bit, but still
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: like the strikeouts were there, ail to go deep into games.
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: All that that's there, and he's still just like twenty two,
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: so you have to like his long term outlook. But
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: I think this is going to kind of put a
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: pretty big chink in the armor if it truly is
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: kind of a Tommy John situation. I'm a little perplexed
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: to how they're playing it, to be honest right now,
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: because usually with these types of injuries that lead to
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: Tommy John, it's like you get a first opinion, a
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: few days later, you get a second opinion, you go
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: into the knife, and you just get the process started.
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: And they've really slow played I think he was going
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: to see a specialist this Thursday, if I recall, which.
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: Is But.
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's really really odd the way that they've
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: played it, so makes me think that maybe there's a
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: little something else going on there. Maybe this is more
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: of a Kyle Bradish type situation. Whether they really do
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: think they can rehabit and get them back.
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: How will did that work out for Bradish?
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: But I still like it long term, But I think
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: you have to put some cold water on this one
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: right now until we really know what the injury it
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: looks like. But most likely we're done for twenty six.
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: We're pretty much done for twenty seven, and you're looking
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: at twenty eight for that full return when he's played
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: i think his twenty five year old season and you know,
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: hopefully comes back better for it.
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And the other factor here is that the Marlins
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: have really started to slip behind in the nleast, they
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: were just a couple of weeks ago, like kind of
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: right in the thick of it all. But things have
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: unraveled and the Phillies have gotten hot, and so they've
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: even well before today, they'd sunk below the Mets. So like,
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: that's how far they've gotten out of it. And you
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: do wonder if this is the precursors Robbie Snelling Tommy
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: John surgery is the precursor to kind of packing it
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: in for the rest of twenty six and getting whatever
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: juice they can out of seeing dy'al contra now and
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: then reracking it back for twenty twenty seven. Because I
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: do like this team. It's a nice, good young core
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: that they're building. It's just a question of whether or
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: not they can actually stay the course, unlike what they
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: always do with Miami Marlins. Okay, well, that wraps up
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: the actual kind of news and notes that we had.
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: But I did have a couple just kind of other
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: quick things I wanted to shoot by you, just to
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: kind of get your temperature on where you're at with
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: a few players, because you know, with our big overarching
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: themes that we use every week, sometimes just like the
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: little bits and Bobs we don't get to discuss, and
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: you know, we only go once a week, so there's
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: lots of performances that maybe we haven't been able to
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: highlight as much. The first one I have is it's
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a quiz first, because guess there
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: is one team Believe well, I wracked this up yesterday
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: when I was looking at the last thirty day stats
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: on ras ball. That gives you like the player raider
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: for the last thirty days. Essentially, it's a nice little
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: tool to be able to see who's hot, who's not,
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: kind of where things are going. And so yesterday this
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: team had two top five players or like one top
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: five player on hitting and one top five player on
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: pitching in the last thirty days, and it was the
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: only team to do so. Let me check to make
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: sure if it's still the only team to do so
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: over this other stretch. So it is now still, but
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: I have to drop it to top seven. It's the only
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: team with a player in the top seven hitters and
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: the top seven pitchers. And do you know who they are?
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: Oh geez, that's tough. Put me on pud on a
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: spot here. I thought you were gonna go something like
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: the Nationals because they're They're hitting has been so unbelievable
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: and they've scored so many runs. I'm trying to rack
• 43:01
  Speaker 3: my brain of which picture would be from them, Like
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: I think christ has been that good or I don't know. Yeah,
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: so I'm trying to think of who it could be.
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: So gotta give me a clue here, give me give
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: me a division or something here.
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: Well, I might have seen one of these pictures in
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: person over the past week.
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: Uh are we talking the White Sox. Are we talking
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: the White Sox? Are we talking Miguel Vargas.
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: Yes, yes we are. Do you know who the picture is?
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: Who's the picture?
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: Who's contender? Davis Martin?
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: I was not going to get Davis Martin.
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they've They've both been top seven players. I mean,
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: Martin was in the top five until the Chase Burns
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: start from last night, I believe, and so that along
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: with the Missy Rousk one I think knocked him out. So,
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, the White Sox have been super duper hot.
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: They took it to the Cubs this past weekend in
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: the Cross Down Cup. Murakami does not stop hitting homers.
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: But I wanted to check in mostly on migl Vargas
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: with you, because is this who Miguel Vargas like was
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: touted to be for the Dodgers, and like it's this
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: is one of the ones where I'm so close to
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: it and watching enough White Sox games. I don't know
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: if I can be totally impartial because it looks legit
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: and he just absolutely ropes balls as well. Like I
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: was actually at a game on Mother's Day where he
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: roped a ball so hard that the person who does
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: the fireworks for the home run celebration hit them before
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: it actually even went out of the park and it
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: actually donked right off the wall for a double in
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: the first inning. It was a very surreal experience. I've
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: never seen that before. But you look at the Savant
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: page for Miguel Vargas, it looks bright red. The results
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: have been otherworldly. I don't think he's ever going to
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: be a batting average asset, but if he can be
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: a guy who can push mid thirties homers and hit
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: in the middle of a pretty decent lineup, I think
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: you're looking at another guy who's really kind of reached
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: a level that was previously expected of him. The way
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: that Jordan Walker has and somebody who when I look
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: at the profile, I feel pretty good about it going forward,
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: where it's not like a lot of glaring holes. I'm
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: sure there is somewhere in the swing that will be
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: unlocked when people reevaluate how to approach micgil Vargas for
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: the rest of the year. But he's only twenty six,
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: looks like a pretty good dynasty keeper kind of target
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: by even while he's hot for me. What's your take
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: here on micgal Vargas.
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean when he was coming up with the Dodgers,
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: I mean, he actually was a guy that hit for average,
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: like he was at three hundred pretty consistently in the miners,
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: and the power was more of the question that was
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: a little bit more middling twenty homer type power.
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: But we were always excited about this guy that can
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: maybe hit two ninety and hit.
• 45:58
  Speaker 3: Twenty home runs, and he just never fully got a
• 46:01
  Speaker 3: good run for for the Dodgers, even you know, until
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: last year with the White Sox did he have a
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: full run. And he was decent last year, but this
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: year he's like a number of things look different. His
• 46:16
  Speaker 3: plate approach is better, he's not chasing things as much,
• 46:19
  Speaker 3: he's making better contact, he's being a little bit more
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: aggressive of a hitter. You know, he's actually kind of underperformed. Honestly,
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: feel like a batting average perspective is expecting that expected
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: batting average. I think he's like the two sixties, and
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: so you look at all these things and it's not
• 46:36
  Speaker 3: like he's been incredibly lucky. I mean there's a little there, don't,
• 46:39
  Speaker 3: don't get me wrong, but it's it's not Davis Martin lucky.
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: It is actually looks to be holding pretty well. And
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: I really think that maybe the decreased pressure in this
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: atmosphere and then a team is starting to play well
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: around him, is just kind of raised the sea level
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: for for a guy like Vargas, And I mean, it's
• 46:59
  Speaker 3: it's hard to argue against it.
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: Now. Is he gonna stay on this heater like he's
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: doing right now?
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: No, he's not. But you can easily see a guy
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: that could really eclipse that twenty five homer threshold and
• 47:12
  Speaker 3: be honestly, I think he could be a two sixty
• 47:14
  Speaker 3: two sixty five bat And uh, the fact that he's
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: also swiped six faces this year, it surprises me a
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: little bit. He just feels a little more like a plotter.
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: I guess we haven't played our favorite game in a while.
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: Unless you already have looked, you're staring at it. But
• 47:32
  Speaker 3: so seventy eighth percentile frenzy threat feed for bargains, which
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: is surprised. He just doesn't doesn't feel like it for
• 47:39
  Speaker 3: a guy that's six to twenty five, Like it's a
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: pretty big, pretty big dude that they can move.
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: So I don't see a lot of holes here.
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: I'm going to have to be considering from my top
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: one hundred when I when I post that this coming week,
• 47:54
  Speaker 3: and so I'm I'm in, maybe there's some rose color
• 47:57
  Speaker 3: glasses from the Chicago White Sox fan in you. But
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: there's a lot to like here. And I mean, the
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: guys still just what twenty six years old. I think
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: people forget it how young he just is, and so
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: he's still got room to grow.
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And I mean, I think the other thing that
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: really stands out to me is that now it's two
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: hundred and two played appearances where we've seen a market
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: upgrade in the batspeed now too, with the approach all working.
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: So it's not like sometimes I worry because he is
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: up almost three ticks. It's actually like right on the nose.
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: He's up three point one miles per an hour on
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: the bat speed on savant where sometimes I do worry
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: where like, especially somebody like Vargas who already was like
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a strikeout issue, strikeout prone player,
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: that the increased bat speed can even create a bigger
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: hole in the swing. And just like you know, especially
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: in somebody in Vargas's situation where you know there was
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: so much hype coming up and you know he's feeling
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: the pressure of being able to or to have to
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: produce that you worry that sometimes he goes to that
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: last straw too quickly. But I think this is actually
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: like more of a development piece where he did find
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: the extra ticks of bat speed and held on to
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: his plate discipline in terms of I mean, it wasn't
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: fantastic from the strikeout perspective, but he's always had a
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: decent eye in terms of being able to walk. And
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: so that's why, Yeah, I feel pretty good about what
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: we've been seeing out of Vargus, especially now that like
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: we're two hunder plate appearance is in like it's gonna
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: take a different approach maybe to find if he can't
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: hit something on the outside corner or something something like that.
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: But it's gonna take like a very specific setup because
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: when I've been watching Miguel Vargas at bats, he doesn't
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: beat himself in the box the way he used to.
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And the thing I also have to like for
• 49:52
  Speaker 3: a young guy, he doesn't have split issues. He has
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: lefties and righties. He can play every day, and that's
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: really really big for a lot of young guys coming
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: up now, which seems that they're struggling with that more
• 50:07
  Speaker 3: and more than what I feel like has been in
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: the past. So that's completely unstatistically relevant, but it definitely
• 50:13
  Speaker 3: feels like that's been a play.
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah. And then I mean the other guy that I
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: wanted to talk about with you was somebody else who's
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: also just been teeing off over the past few weeks
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: is JJ Bulde, who went to Vanderbilt University. Right behind
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: you in your hotel room, where it's actually it's eerily
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: similar to Miguel Vargas, where like the plate approach and
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: everything looks pretty comparative to what he's been before. But
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: like the bats be ticked up, in this case, it
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: went up roughly three miles an hour. That was again
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: three point one, So that's kind of eerie. But for
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: some reason I don't feel as good about Day. I
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: think part of it is because it's only eighty four
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: light appearances and I don't I should probably look up
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: I'll do it probably while you dive into BLI dat
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: and discuss it a little bit, like where at what
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: point that the bat speed actually becomes like a little
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: bit more sticky, because like otherwise, when you look at
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: the actual page for the Savants stats and kind of
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: bars for Jay to Blood Day, it is more of
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: a profile that screams to me hot streak. Where we
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: discussed this we've touched on a little bit over the
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: pod over the past few months where like especially in
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: the season, and I warned you a little bit about
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: it with like dominant Canzone last year because we felt
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: it was really easy to do this with Canzone where
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: the Savant page looked otherworldly like Ben Rice Aaron Judge
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: level kind of read, but it was more of like
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: a hot streak. And the way that I can you
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: can really see it in a smaller performance is when
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: the sweet spot percentage is just like off the charts
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: and you're just like, Okay, this dude is good, but
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: he's not like Aaron Judge or Vladimir Guerrero and he
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: doesn't have that type of reputation where I mean, but
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: Day was a little closer to that because he was
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: the number four overall pick in twenty nineteen and certainly
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: has had a lot of the pedigree. Is still only
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: twenty eight. But are you with me or against me
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: in saying and thinking that, like, you believe more in
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: Vargas Bla Day, you'll ride the hot streak, but to
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: actually buy in and especially like to buy at market
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: value for him right now in a dynasty or keeper situation,
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: you wouldn't be doing that on Bla Day because you
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: need to see more.
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you're probably right. If you try to
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: compare the two had to have, there's a number of
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: notable differences. Bladey is a very pole heavy hitter and
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: a very good hitters ballpark. He is platoon all day long,
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: and this is something we kind of saw with Mike
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: Kastrimsky coming into this year, and it's kind of teams
• 53:05
  Speaker 3: of adjusted back and he's been banged up as well,
• 53:08
  Speaker 3: but a guy that really just feast on pitching when
• 53:11
  Speaker 3: the team's just like, I've never gonna let you see
• 53:13
  Speaker 3: another guy, you know, another in his case, another what
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: would be lefty bat, lefty pitcher, because actually I think
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: the last three days, I haven't looked today, he was
• 53:24
  Speaker 3: like over for every game and actually started him against
• 53:27
  Speaker 3: the lefty and that started the kind of that run
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: of games, and that's that's been a little bit tough
• 53:32
  Speaker 3: for him. And so I do see it a little
• 53:34
  Speaker 3: bit more as a hot streak. I think he this
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: is the player that he is, is the player that
• 53:39
  Speaker 3: was drafted. This is the skill level, but he's never
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: truly been able to put it together. And I think
• 53:45
  Speaker 3: this is easier to kind of adjust back for teams.
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: I don't think there's been a note ofble like all
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: of a sudden, he's you know, pulled up a max
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: months he got glasses or something like that. You know,
• 53:56
  Speaker 3: it's not like the contact rates have really improved. You know,
• 54:00
  Speaker 3: he's just been aggressive when he sees a fastball and
• 54:04
  Speaker 3: takes advantage like that. That's what's happening here. So I
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: think Vargus is a better all around player. I think
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: he's got more overall upside and maybe better on the downside,
• 54:14
  Speaker 3: some type of things where I think day is on
• 54:17
  Speaker 3: like a more of a hot streak. It's a hot
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: streak is worth kind of gambling if you need to.
• 54:22
  Speaker 3: But I've seen this more and more or less years
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: with these kind of platoon bats, the carry carpenters of
• 54:28
  Speaker 3: the world, Jesus the days of the world. Like, it's
• 54:31
  Speaker 3: just really hard to rely on because if they if
• 54:35
  Speaker 3: they end up going a little bit of a cold streak,
• 54:38
  Speaker 3: it's really cold for a long time until they figure
• 54:40
  Speaker 3: things out. It's not they don't kind of they don't
• 54:42
  Speaker 3: play enough to work themselves out, and it's much easier
• 54:44
  Speaker 3: to lose playing time.
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, in the meantime, I did not find a definitive
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: answer in terms of like when bat speed stabilizes. I
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: will say that like it is one of the squish
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: year kind of stats on the Savant page because it
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: is a situation where they make sure to carve out
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: like the non competitive swings. But I think also what
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: I've found when I'm looking at savant pages and seeing
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: when people are running hot, like it does feel like
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: the bat speed is a little bit up, And something
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: that indicates that too is I'm looking at this Leaderboard
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: and this review for Mike podhorser at rotographs that came
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: out last year, where actually around this time in twenty
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: twenty five he started kind of tracking bat speeds and
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: how they had increased since twenty twenty four, and then
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: at the end of last year he came back and
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: with their total bat speed like for the rest of
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: the year, and it varies a little bit, where like
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: most of it was relatively sticky, but then you could
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: see where some of the players who like started off
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: hot last year, where the ones that especially stand out
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: to me are like as in Barger, Brett Baby, and
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: I'll link to this in the show notes too, so
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: you can kind of see the list, even Jorge Polanco,
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: where it looked like the bat speed was up three
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: ticks at the beginning of twenty twenty five, but then
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: by the end of the year it had regressed down
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: to more of like a one and one and a half.
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: So that's something to keep in mind here with what
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: you're looking at with both Vargas and Bladey, I think,
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: but like, honestly, most of these dudes, it looked like
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: a lot of it stuck because usually to get that
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: large of a jump and bat speed increase, and also
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: to do it over the length of time that Vargas
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: has done it. It takes off season work. That's not
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: just like a fluke as opposed to when you're looking
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: at a smaller sample the way that Bladet is, and
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: you know, even his savant page, all those bars are
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: still like semi see through because they haven't actually reached
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: the qualification stage. I would be a little bit more
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: leery of that, but I think there is a possibility
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: that you're seeing a little bit more out of Bladet's profile.
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: You also put that in Cincinnati, it does become more intriguing.
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: So I would say I'm not totally out on BA day.
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: I'm more lukewarm. But honestly, if you find somebody else
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: in your league who is has BLA day and you
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: can meet in the middle and they're not like buying
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: new three three miles per hour up bat speed bl day,
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: but they also were anticipating a fallback, there could be
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a buying a window there if
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: you actually think that there's the possibility that he's a
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: true three plus mile pan hour batsbeed guy over last
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: year and not somebody who is going to settle a
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: little bit more back to his historical rates. That was
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: a lot of nerd stuff that also maybe did not
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: answer the question very well. But does that sound about
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: right to what your expectations would be around batspeed?
• 57:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think so. I mean generally it is something
• 57:54
  Speaker 3: that is it is a skill like and I think
• 57:58
  Speaker 3: you forget that it's not just you swing hard as
• 58:00
  Speaker 3: you can because you got to make contact. But it
• 58:04
  Speaker 3: usually does take an actual dedicated adjustment workout regimen, rework
• 58:10
  Speaker 3: your swing to like increase that bat speed. Do you
• 58:13
  Speaker 3: think there's also their value to see what that looks
• 58:15
  Speaker 3: like over a season for guys that kind of start
• 58:17
  Speaker 3: hot and then as they start to struggle, they start
• 58:20
  Speaker 3: to grasp, start chasing things, bad speed is going to
• 58:22
  Speaker 3: fall off. It's still it's still a statistic we're learning
• 58:26
  Speaker 3: and trying to figure out. But I think I use
• 58:29
  Speaker 3: bass speed more of maybe a kickout than a driver
• 58:33
  Speaker 3: at this point. Like, if you have good bat speed,
• 58:36
  Speaker 3: I'll consider you for other things. If you have low
• 58:38
  Speaker 3: bat speed, I'm much more concerned. It is kind of
• 58:41
  Speaker 3: the way that I've looked at bad speed. So if
• 58:43
  Speaker 3: you're if you're squaring things up and you have good
• 58:45
  Speaker 3: bat speed and you have good plate approach. I'm really
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: interested in that kind of pro That's a then Rice
• 58:51
  Speaker 3: type of profile. Jordan Walker's kind of tried to do
• 58:54
  Speaker 3: a little bit as well, right with his changes this year.
• 58:57
  Speaker 3: But then you get into those other guys that don't
• 59:01
  Speaker 3: have the beast speed and they, you know, knock a
• 59:03
  Speaker 3: few homers own people like, oh my goodness, this guy's coat.
• 59:05
  Speaker 3: I was like, no, it's it's that's not sustainable. You
• 59:08
  Speaker 3: cannot be a power hitter without the bast speed.
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: You just can't. Yeah, yeah, I totally agree. And I
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: think it's also like if you want to see how
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: it's important, just look at like the output from jj
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: bldey in twenty twenty five to twenty twenty six. Like
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: it shows all the world of difference. Obviously, the other
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: taggle is still percentage or like your your launch angle
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: because I mean ask for name or tattis junior. But like,
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: but like it is a it is a pretty big
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: indicator to seeing actual growth from players. So it it
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: becomes just more and more sticky the more and more
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: that I look into it in terms of like bat
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: speed equals good badd where like especially once you start
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: getting above the fiftieth percentile. I think that's when you're
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: starting to look at guys that you're you're diving into
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: because if they're not producing in there above like the
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: fiftieth percentile, you're trying to figure out what the tweet
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: can be, because that's how you're gonna find I think
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: the next hitter to unlock for fantasy nowadays, where it's
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: less so in terms of other plate approach components, where
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: this is the one number that people seem to be
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: really honed in on.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 3: Yeah, just just go to Baseball savon and sort by
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 3: bat speed or squared up one of the two, uh,
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 3: either one, and then look at the other. And that's
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 3: it's very evident. The Aaron Judges of the world, you know,
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 3: the power hitters, they have high bat speed and they
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 3: square everything up, and that's that's what makes it work.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 3: And generally need some flat balls too, the ideas that
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 3: you need them too. But and then you can kind
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 3: of go down the list and see like it's like, oh,
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 3: that's a that's a soft hitter. That's not he's not
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 3: a power guy, but he's wing with that bass. He
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 3: just doesn't square it up enough. This guy squares up
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 3: all the time. He just doesn't swing hard ballism travel
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 3: then all and you see the guy's like, man, he's
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 3: squaring things up pretty well and he's got some mass speed,
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 3: but it just doesn't feel like he's done it. I
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: think Alec Burlsen was a guy that was kind of
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: that way this year and last year and lo and behold,
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 3: he's been pretty much unvaluable. And so those those metrics
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: that now that we have in the last year and
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 3: a half that they've they've meant a lot and there
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 3: they can be used pretty well.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think the two guys to really
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: watch for this going forward are Jack kagling On and
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: Cam Smith, where they both also are kind of having
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: launch angle issues as well. Where and the weird thing
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: with Cam Smith too is like it's insane bat speed,
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: but the exit filo in the hard hit percentage is
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: not good either, which actually kind of leans a little
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: bit more towards like a Jordan Walker issue. I think
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: in camp Smith's profile and Jack, I was worried about
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: this a little bit, like I'm confounded. I don't know
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: if he can fix it.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 3: He's got the issue of he just he's a ground
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 3: ball guy, Yeah, exactly, And that's but you're just waiting.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: He is one tweak away. He is one tweak away
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 3: with that player approach, and he can be a perty
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 3: homer guy. Like honestly, he can be. I've tried to
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 3: trade from a few times myself, just hoping that somebody
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 3: is just soured because they've been through so much. Because
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 3: it's there's not many guys out there right now that
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 3: I look at and say, you're performing outside a top
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 3: one hundred hitter, and you could be a top three
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 3: round hitter, and the tags definitely fits that bill. Now
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 3: does he make the adjustment, we'll see, But yeah, he
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 3: could easily go with Cabrian Hayes route as well.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and well.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: That's not a compliment, by the way.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: And I mean that's also something to keep in mind
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: because I'm astill like also trying to file it away
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: for draft season next year because I think what I
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: will do with some of like my last roster spots
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: is like just go to the previous year bat speed
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: Leader's list, see who's still on the board. And like,
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: especially if cam Smith keeps up this current production pace,
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: like he's gonna be pretty much free at the draft table,
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: I think, and if you're trying to mine and hunt
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: for the next Jordan Walker, I think this is how
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: you do it. Some of these guys won't, you know,
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: fully put it together. But the more and more you
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: look at this list nowadays, it is ninety percent maybe
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: of like guys who have put it together. You know,
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: some of the guys who haven't are even like Garrett Mitchell,
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: but like that's more of an injury issue, a guesst
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: In Ramirez where a little bit yes, but and Matt
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: Wallner just not enough contact because that is also like
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: the other downside where it can go of, Like if
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: you swing it really hard, but you swing with reckless
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: abandon you could end up in the Matt Wallner Joey
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: Gallo territory where there's just not enough contact for it
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: to ever work. Period. Okay, well, I think that's gonna
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: wrap us up for this very kind of wildcard, loose
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: ended open episode. It does feel strange, but I think
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: we're going to wrap it up. Brew. Let everybody know
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: where they can reach you on socials and read your work.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 3: YEP, find me on Twitter, ex Blue Sky Gabrewer one
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 3: seven Find me on Rasball on the weekends doing top
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 3: one hundred, hit your rankings and hitter profiles.
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: Cooly work from folks find you.
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you can read my work over at Baseball Perspectus.
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: You can find me on blue Sky at mcool seven
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: spelled out co u ill on the cool just like
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: my last name. And if you want to contact the podcast,
• 1:04:35
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• 1:04:43
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• 1:04:44
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• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: build our audience. And with that, we're gonna wrap it
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: up for this week. We will be back roughly same time,
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: same place next week. It is a holiday week in
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: the USA, so we will kind of keep that in
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: mind as we schedule things out. But should be lots
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: of great baseball coming up collegiately and in the professional ranks,
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: so I'm gonna have lots of great things to talk
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: about all summer long. Stick around everybody, because we'll see
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: you on this podcast.