Latest / Decision Desk HQ Podcast / Episode 26: Virginia's Redistricting Referendum, with Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate

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Episode 26: Virginia's Redistricting Referendum, with Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate · Decision Desk HQ Podcast

0:00
SPEAKER_02: Virginia will hold a special election on a constitutional amendment that,
0:03
SPEAKER_02: if successful,
0:04
could allow the state to implement a Democratic gerrymander of
0:07
its congressional
0:08
map.
0:08
Several Republican-controlled states have completed or proposed
0:10
redistricting for
0:11
SPEAKER_01: the upcoming midterms.
0:12
SPEAKER_01: The proposed congressional map for Virginia may help offset Republican
0:16
SPEAKER_01: gerrymandering in these states.
0:17
SPEAKER_02: The proposed constitutional amendment language is very controversial.
0:20
It's actually the subject of one of the court challenges to
0:22
this entire thing.
0:23
SPEAKER_02: This is,
0:25
you know,
0:25
SPEAKER_01: a whole new different beast that is the first time that,
0:29
you know,
0:29
SPEAKER_01: we are trying to tame.
0:43
SPEAKER_02: Welcome to the Decision Desk HQ podcast.
0:46
I'm your host,
0:46
Geoffrey Skelley,
0:47
the Chief Elections Analyst here at Decision Desk HQ.
0:51
This coming Tuesday,
0:52
April 21st,
0:54
will bring us the latest battle in the 2026 redistricting wars.
0:58
SPEAKER_02: Virginia will hold a special election on a constitutional amendment that,
1:01
SPEAKER_02: if successful,
1:03
could allow the state to implement a Democratic gerrymander of
1:06
its congressional
1:07
SPEAKER_02: map.
1:08
The amendment would allow the state legislature to bypass
1:10
Virginia's bipartisan
1:11
SPEAKER_02: redistricting commission until after the 2030 census.
1:15
SPEAKER_02: In expectation of passage,
1:17
Virginia's Democratic-controlled state government has passed a
1:20
very aggressive
1:21
SPEAKER_02: proposal that aims to hand Democrats 10 of the state's 11 districts,
1:26
SPEAKER_02: arguably the most lopsided gerrymander in the country,
1:28
SPEAKER_02: if it comes to pass.
1:30
SPEAKER_02: Democrats are feeling confident,
1:31
SPEAKER_02: too,
1:32
that the overall political environment and the state's light
1:34
blue lean will produce
1:35
SPEAKER_02: a favorable outcome.
1:37
SPEAKER_02: President Donald Trump is not popular in Virginia,
1:39
and the same forces that helped California pass Proposition 50
1:42
to install a new map
1:43
SPEAKER_02: in the Golden State last year are also in play in Virginia,
1:46
SPEAKER_02: though in a state that is far less blue by comparison.
1:50
Polls do suggest a competitive race,
1:52
but one in which,
1:53
yes,
1:53
is at least somewhat favored.
1:56
And I should say that also early voting data has pointed to a
1:59
pretty high turnout
2:01
SPEAKER_02: among Democrats and a partisan makeup at the electorate that is not
2:05
exceedingly different from what we saw in the 2025
2:08
gubernatorial election in
2:09
Virginia,
2:09
SPEAKER_02: which obviously Democrats won by a pretty solid margin.
2:14
SPEAKER_02: And to help me dive into all of this,
2:15
SPEAKER_02: all the things happening in Virginia's vote,
2:17
SPEAKER_02: I'm very excited to welcome Chaz Nuttycombe to the podcast.
2:20
SPEAKER_02: Chaz is the executive director of State Navigate,
2:23
a nonpartisan nonprofit that works to help the public navigate
2:26
state level
2:27
SPEAKER_02: politics.
2:28
He's also a close watcher of Virginia politics and a native of
2:31
the Commonwealth like me.
2:33
And State Navigate has been closely tracking the redistricting
2:36
referendum.
2:37
They have a great interactive for early vote data,
2:39
including estimates of partisanship.
2:41
SPEAKER_02: And they just released a new poll measuring support for the measure,
2:45
which might be just about the last snapshot we get of what
2:47
voters are thinking
2:48
SPEAKER_02: ahead of Election Day.
2:50
Last year,
2:50
they were also the most accurate pollster in the 2025
2:53
gubernatorial election,
2:54
SPEAKER_02: according to Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin.
2:56
SPEAKER_02: So, kudos to see Navigate for that.
2:59
SPEAKER_02: And so, with that, Chaz, welcome to the Decision Desk HQ podcast.
3:04
SPEAKER_01: Thank you for having me back on, or having me on.
3:08
SPEAKER_01: And, you know, yeah, we were most accurate last year, and...
3:11
But this year,
3:14
when it comes to our poll,
3:15
we pretty much had the same result as GMU.
3:18
SPEAKER_01: So it's either I texted a professor at GMU,
3:22
SPEAKER_01: and after finding out,
3:24
oh,
3:24
SPEAKER_01: our poll looks a lot like a GMU one,
3:26
SPEAKER_01: it turns out on the yes margin,
3:28
SPEAKER_01: which we'll get into in a second.
3:30
SPEAKER_01: So I said, either we win together or we lose together, it looks like.
3:34
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
3:36
Yeah.
3:36
SPEAKER_02: And for those who are not as familiar with Virginia,
3:40
SPEAKER_02: in this case,
3:41
SPEAKER_02: George Mason University,
3:42
SPEAKER_02: the Schar School partnered with the Washington Post.
3:46
SPEAKER_02: They do that regularly to pull Virginia.
3:49
SPEAKER_02: So they also released a poll that had a similar
3:51
SPEAKER_02: Similar margin to what Chaz and State Navigate found.
3:55
But hey,
3:55
Chaz,
3:55
SPEAKER_02: before we dive into that a little bit,
3:57
I just kind of wanted some top level thoughts from you about
4:01
what to make of this
4:03
SPEAKER_02: referendum vote,
4:04
constitutional amendment vote that is effectively a referendum
4:07
on this map and sort
4:09
SPEAKER_02: of where you see things sitting here just a few days ahead of the vote.
4:13
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely.
4:14
SPEAKER_01: So we're recording on Wednesday, right?
4:17
SPEAKER_01: The Wednesday before the election.
4:19
SPEAKER_01: So we are six days out from Election Day.
4:23
SPEAKER_01: So a little background is Democrats have introduced...
4:28
SPEAKER_01: This year it would be a 10 to 1 map,
4:31
but you could really see this map being like maybe 9 to 2 in a
4:36
more even year.
4:39
SPEAKER_01: This year is expected to be a blue wave year election.
4:44
SPEAKER_01: I think that you could really bet the farm on that.
4:48
So,
4:48
SPEAKER_01: you know,
4:49
SPEAKER_01: even this far out,
4:50
SPEAKER_01: I think it is pretty much inevitable with,
4:53
SPEAKER_01: you know,
4:54
SPEAKER_01: an environment that is probably similar to 2018,
4:57
SPEAKER_01: if not a little bit bluer.
4:58
right um so you know everyone uh is calling it a 10 to 1 map
5:03
which is fair because
5:04
it is a 10 to 1 map this year right um so the Democrats have
5:11
introduced this map
5:12
via constitutional referendum uh they kind of rammed it through
5:16
in a special
5:17
session last year and passed it again uh this year and are
5:21
holding it in April
5:24
SPEAKER_01: which I think you had a really good...
5:25
SPEAKER_01: I actually need to ask you about this.
5:29
Has it been since the 1950s that we had an April constitutional
5:32
amendment election,
5:34
SPEAKER_01: or has it been 100 years?
5:35
SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
5:36
SPEAKER_02: essentially in the modern history of Virginia politics,
5:40
SPEAKER_02: so sort of Voting Rights Act on 1965,
5:44
SPEAKER_02: there hasn't been a vote like this.
5:46
So the last time there was a constitutional amendment vote in
5:49
Virginia that was not
5:50
SPEAKER_02: held at the regular November election,
5:53
SPEAKER_02: was in 1956, there was a referendum question.
5:57
And then in 1945,
5:58
there was a March vote that was also a referendum question.
6:01
SPEAKER_02: And then you have to go all the way back to 1928
6:04
for true constitutional amendment questions that were held in a
6:08
non-November date.
6:09
SPEAKER_02: And that was in June of 1928.
6:10
And that was actually a number of very important constitutional
6:13
amendments that
6:14
established kind of the way Virginia elections and statewide
6:18
offices are now,
6:19
SPEAKER_02: the short ballot,
6:20
SPEAKER_02: as they called it,
6:22
with governor,
6:22
SPEAKER_02: lieutenant governor and attorney general.
6:24
SPEAKER_02: So yes,
6:25
SPEAKER_02: you have to go back to like Harry Flood Byrd Sr.
6:29
SPEAKER_02: as governor to find a non-November constitutional amendment date,
6:34
which is sure
6:34
a comparison the Democrats want to hear right no exactly that's
6:38
what I've been kind
6:39
of writing about and actually i'll give you a fun fact uh i
6:42
didn't know uh harry
6:44
SPEAKER_01: bird's uh middle name you said it's Fled?
6:46
SPEAKER_01: Flood, yeah Flood for another family yeah I
6:50
didn't know that's what it stood for until now and I'm supposed
6:52
to be a Virginia
6:53
SPEAKER_01: history buff so um
6:55
but because you know he was he was like you know the Byrd
6:57
Machine and everything
6:59
Um,
6:59
SPEAKER_01: so yeah,
7:00
I mean,
7:00
SPEAKER_01: look,
7:01
SPEAKER_01: it's pretty much been a hundred years since a true,
7:03
SPEAKER_01: you know,
7:04
SPEAKER_01: kind of election like this.
7:05
SPEAKER_01: Right.
7:06
Um,
7:06
so,
7:06
so this is the kind of thing like,
7:08
yes,
7:08
we,
7:09
we did really well last year.
7:10
SPEAKER_01: I feel good about, uh, you know, my capabilities and predicting, uh,
7:16
uh Virginia elections however special elections are special
7:20
right um this is you
7:23
know a whole new different beast that is like the first time
7:27
that you know we are
7:28
we are trying to tame and but you know i i think it like pretty
7:33
much what happens
7:34
is Virginia elections and this is true with a lot of elections
7:37
in other states but
7:39
it's especially true in Virginia we talk about these odd year
7:41
elections or just you
7:43
SPEAKER_01: know
7:44
SPEAKER_01: Non non non midterm or whatever is that,
7:48
SPEAKER_01: you know,
7:49
pretty much the electorate changes where like the party outside
7:52
of the White House
7:53
is very,
7:53
SPEAKER_01: very motivated to vote.
7:55
SPEAKER_01: Right.
7:56
SPEAKER_01: Since 1977,
7:58
SPEAKER_01: besides the exception of 2013,
8:00
SPEAKER_01: when Terry McAuliffe,
8:03
the Democrat,
8:03
SPEAKER_01: won while Barack Obama was in the White House.
8:07
Although we can we know that probably a majority of voters
8:11
voted for Mitt Romney in
8:12
SPEAKER_01: that election.
8:14
SPEAKER_01: You know, it's just because you had two very deeply disliked candidates.
8:19
And so the Libertarian got six and a half percent of the vote
8:21
or something like that.
8:22
SPEAKER_01: Right.
8:23
Um,
8:23
SPEAKER_01: but so since I'm— Robert Sarvis,
8:25
getting a,
8:25
SPEAKER_01: getting a shout out on the,
8:27
SPEAKER_01: uh,
8:28
SPEAKER_01: and then he did it again a year later.
8:30
Yes.
8:30
SPEAKER_02: And he was the Republican in that race.
8:32
So yeah,
8:32
SPEAKER_02: it was a,
8:33
it was a,
8:33
SPEAKER_02: it was a,
8:34
it was an election that really set the stage for 2016 and the
8:36
presidential race,
8:38
SPEAKER_02: if you will.
8:39
SPEAKER_01: And, and so, um, we, uh,
8:43
SPEAKER_01: You know,
8:44
what I was kind of getting at is that we have elected a
8:47
governor opposite of the
8:48
SPEAKER_01: White House every year,
8:49
SPEAKER_01: except that year,
8:50
SPEAKER_01: pretty much since 1977.
8:52
SPEAKER_01: It was,
8:53
you know,
8:53
SPEAKER_01: like a decade before that,
8:55
SPEAKER_01: that we've really had a true two party system in Virginia.
8:57
SPEAKER_01: Right.
8:58
SPEAKER_01: We used to be like very deeply Southern Democratic and everything.
9:02
SPEAKER_01: So this is very hard to predict.
9:05
SPEAKER_01: So it's kind of the best guess of like,
9:06
SPEAKER_01: well,
9:07
look,
9:07
you know,
9:07
SPEAKER_01: in the way that we do are waiting for our polls and
9:10
SPEAKER_01: It's based on,
9:11
SPEAKER_01: you know,
9:12
like previous grade data of figuring out what old Virginia
9:15
electorates look like or
9:16
SPEAKER_01: not old,
9:17
SPEAKER_01: but like kind of recent.
9:18
SPEAKER_01: So like we look at AP Votecast,
9:21
SPEAKER_01: we look at Catalyst and,
9:25
you know,
9:25
SPEAKER_01: we obviously,
9:26
SPEAKER_01: you know,
9:27
SPEAKER_01: look at the main thing that.
9:30
SPEAKER_01: to where we're trying to figure out like where things are at now,
9:32
SPEAKER_01: which is Gallup's quarterly party ID,
9:35
right?
9:35
SPEAKER_01: You know,
9:36
if you'd be able to know who the popular vote winner is in the
9:39
presidential
9:40
SPEAKER_01: election in 2016 and 2020 and 2024,
9:42
SPEAKER_01: if you just look at the quarterly party ID,
9:45
SPEAKER_01: and I believe 2012 as well.
9:47
SPEAKER_01: So if,
9:49
SPEAKER_01: because I think they were doing it quarterly then,
9:50
SPEAKER_01: but it's just not in like what they send and when everybody asked for it.
9:55
But so like Gallup's quarterly party ID in Q3 2025,
9:58
right,
9:58
was D plus seven.
10:03
SPEAKER_01: Q4 gets D plus eight.
10:06
SPEAKER_01: And I was very excited because I emailed Gallup,
10:09
SPEAKER_01: you know,
10:10
SPEAKER_01: maybe a few days before the end of Q1.
10:12
SPEAKER_01: Like, hey, is this going to come out right away?
10:14
SPEAKER_01: Because I really need this.
10:17
SPEAKER_01: It was like literally...
10:19
SPEAKER_01: Maybe a day or two into the month where they were like, hey, it's up.
10:24
SPEAKER_01: So I was like, thank God.
10:26
SPEAKER_01: So Q1 shows D plus 10,
10:29
SPEAKER_01: which is,
10:30
SPEAKER_01: you know,
10:31
SPEAKER_01: since at least in 10 years,
10:34
SPEAKER_01: probably much longer actually than that.
10:36
It's the highest Dem,
10:38
you know,
10:38
party advantage,
10:39
national party advantage that Gallup has had.
10:43
SPEAKER_01: Um, so party ID is moving more toward Dems, right?
10:47
SPEAKER_01: Um, party registration is a lagging indicator.
10:50
SPEAKER_01: So I know that people will talk about party registration,
10:53
SPEAKER_01: party registration,
10:54
SPEAKER_01: but it's really party ID that matters because,
10:56
you know,
10:56
SPEAKER_01: changing your,
10:57
SPEAKER_01: uh,
10:58
SPEAKER_01: party registration involves work,
11:00
SPEAKER_01: right?
11:01
SPEAKER_01: Whereas like answering a poll can hopefully be in two minutes.
11:04
SPEAKER_01: If your poll is longer than two minutes,
11:05
SPEAKER_01: I think you've got a problem,
11:07
uh,
11:07
unless it's,
11:07
SPEAKER_01: or maybe,
11:08
you know,
11:08
maybe,
11:08
SPEAKER_01: maybe three or four minutes.
11:09
SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
11:11
SPEAKER_01: Um,
11:12
SPEAKER_01: But so, you know, we use that when we do waiting.
11:17
So,
11:18
you know,
11:18
that's just what I'll say is,
11:20
you know,
11:20
I think yes is favored.
11:22
OK,
11:23
like I think maybe no has 20 percent chance of winning if I
11:27
were to ballpark it.
11:28
SPEAKER_01: But there's no like there's no forecast.
11:30
There's no I don't have like a 95 percent confidence interval
11:33
in that or anything like that.
11:36
SPEAKER_01: It's just like vibes or whatever.
11:38
SPEAKER_01: Right now, that being said, it's like we have.
11:41
SPEAKER_01: A decent amount of data.
11:43
And,
11:43
you know,
11:43
SPEAKER_01: the early vote does look a little,
11:46
SPEAKER_01: a tiny bit redder than 2025,
11:47
SPEAKER_01: which is good for no,
11:49
right?
11:49
SPEAKER_01: Jay Jones won by 6.7%.
11:50
And,
11:54
you know,
11:55
I think Jason Miyares really just had an anvil on his leg with
11:58
Winston Sears.
11:59
SPEAKER_01: So...
12:03
Uh,
12:04
you know,
12:04
I think that is,
12:05
uh,
12:06
I think,
12:07
I think our poll is decent for the no campaign.
12:09
SPEAKER_01: You know,
12:10
SPEAKER_01: something that was really good is,
12:13
SPEAKER_01: um,
12:14
you know,
12:14
I mean,
12:14
SPEAKER_01: they're winning independents heavily.
12:15
SPEAKER_01: We'll get into that in a bit when you get in the poll.
12:18
SPEAKER_01: Um, I do want to address kind of a little bit of elephant in the room.
12:23
SPEAKER_01: which is a ballot language on this thing.
12:25
Hey,
12:26
let me pull that up,
12:27
actually,
12:28
because I think it's worth people seeing.
12:31
And I brought up my hometown's sample ballot because I always
12:34
like to do that.
12:36
SPEAKER_01: I love the Harrisonburg registrar, actually.
12:39
SPEAKER_01: He's great.
12:41
Yeah,
12:41
SPEAKER_02: so this is a sample ballot from the city of Harrisonburg,
12:45
SPEAKER_02: one of the many independent cities in the state of Virginia,
12:48
which...
12:49
SPEAKER_02: Most independent cities in the United States are in Virginia.
12:51
SPEAKER_02: Just a little trivia for people.
12:54
SPEAKER_02: Weird local governance thing.
12:57
SPEAKER_02: It's like St. Louis, Carson City, Baltimore and a bunch in Virginia.
13:01
SPEAKER_01: Oh, St. Louis, St. Louis and Baltimore.
13:03
SPEAKER_01: Forgot about those two.
13:04
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
13:05
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
13:06
Cool.
13:06
So,
13:06
yeah,
13:07
the proposed constitutional amendment language is very
13:09
controversial.
13:10
It's actually the subject of one of the court challenges to
13:12
this entire thing.
13:13
SPEAKER_02: And it's basically,
13:15
should the Constitution of Virginia be amended to allow the
13:17
General Assembly to
13:18
temporarily adopt new congressional districts to restore
13:21
fairness in the upcoming
13:23
SPEAKER_02: elections?
13:24
Now,
13:25
the restore fairness part,
13:26
of course,
13:26
is the really controversial part.
13:28
SPEAKER_02: And then the rest of it says,
13:29
while ensuring Virginia's standard redistricting process
13:32
resumes for all future
13:33
SPEAKER_02: redistricting after the 2030 census.
13:36
SPEAKER_02: And then yes or no being your response.
13:38
SPEAKER_02: That restore fairness part
13:40
is the the crux of of the debate over uh the you know what is
13:45
fair is obviously in
13:46
the eye of the beholder right right exactly so you know the the
13:51
no campaign and
13:52
republicans say that it's a push poll and that this is illegal
13:55
because you know
13:56
when it comes to constitutional amendments I believe in like
13:58
the Virginia code it's
13:59
SPEAKER_01: like it can't be biased language right
14:03
I don't know whether they have that in Ohio where they pretty
14:04
much did something
14:05
SPEAKER_01: similar to this,
14:06
right?
14:06
SPEAKER_01: Ohio in 2024,
14:07
SPEAKER_01: you know,
14:09
SPEAKER_01: put very biased ballot language by the,
14:14
SPEAKER_01: you know,
14:15
SPEAKER_01: Republican secretary of state,
14:16
SPEAKER_01: Frank LaRose,
14:17
SPEAKER_01: right?
14:18
SPEAKER_01: When they were voting on in 2024,
14:21
SPEAKER_01: a independent redistricting commission,
14:22
SPEAKER_01: you know,
14:23
SPEAKER_01: Ohio is a gerrymandered state and they have like,
14:27
you know,
14:27
SPEAKER_01: state law to where like they passed this in 2018 to where it's like,
14:31
You can only split with so many counties,
14:33
but you can still gerrymander with that.
14:34
SPEAKER_01: So they really failed when they were trying to,
14:37
you know,
14:37
SPEAKER_01: eliminate gerrymandering in Ohio in 2018,
14:39
SPEAKER_01: honestly.
14:41
SPEAKER_01: But,
14:42
you know,
14:42
SPEAKER_01: this is just kind of like the Virginia version of that,
14:44
SPEAKER_01: except shoe's on the other foot this time,
14:46
SPEAKER_01: right?
14:47
SPEAKER_01: So,
14:48
but let's...
14:48
And I think we see this a lot in these kinds of things around
14:52
the country,
14:54
SPEAKER_02: but then there'll be debates about...
14:57
Basically,
14:57
SPEAKER_02: you know,
14:58
someone will take...
14:58
SPEAKER_02: The person opposing the language will take...
15:01
SPEAKER_02: the state to court.
15:02
SPEAKER_02: But a lot of times this election's in November or it's later on.
15:05
So the court has time to weigh in and say,
15:08
no,
15:08
this language needs to be changed.
15:10
And so whoever's in charge of the language or the court will
15:13
order a certain language.
15:15
And then that'll be the language that ends up being used in the
15:16
general election.
15:17
SPEAKER_02: So at the end of the day, it is viewed as less partial to one side.
15:22
SPEAKER_02: In this case, things are moving so fast that that's not happening here.
15:25
SPEAKER_02: And this is the language that's being used.
15:28
SPEAKER_01: The court punted this until after the referendum.
15:34
SPEAKER_01: We'll see what the court does.
15:37
SPEAKER_01: I'm no legal expert.
15:38
SPEAKER_01: I have no idea what they're going to do.
15:44
The no campaign,
15:47
they were hoping they would be able to get this thrown off
15:49
legally.
15:50
SPEAKER_01: They also had another court argument, a case that they filed where
15:56
has to do with like a Virginia code on like when the
15:59
constitutional amendment
16:01
SPEAKER_01: drafts have to be posted by like a certain time before session.
16:05
SPEAKER_01: And I think there's another lawsuit that they threw,
16:09
SPEAKER_01: which was had to do with early voting or sorry,
16:14
not voting,
16:14
but just voting in general and whether like there should be 45
16:18
days of early voting
16:20
SPEAKER_01: or not.
16:21
SPEAKER_01: But pretty much the court punted all three until after the election.
16:24
SPEAKER_01: So they've allowed this to go through.
16:26
But I do want to kind of break down like some parts of this
16:28
ballot language as we
16:30
SPEAKER_01: kind of talk about background here.
16:33
SPEAKER_01: So temporarily is another controversial part here.
16:38
SPEAKER_01: The no campaign keeps talking about.
16:41
SPEAKER_01: Let me put this in two parts.
16:43
SPEAKER_01: The word "temporarily"
16:45
and ensuring Virginia's standard redistricting process resumes
16:48
for all future
16:49
SPEAKER_01: redistricting after the 2030 census.
16:52
So,
16:54
and I think what will be interesting is that future
16:58
redistricting part.
17:00
SPEAKER_01: So here in Virginia in 2020,
17:02
SPEAKER_01: we passed,
17:03
SPEAKER_01: you know,
17:04
SPEAKER_01: the creation of a citizen,
17:08
SPEAKER_01: I don't know if we would say like independent,
17:11
you know.
17:11
SPEAKER_01: I usually say it's a bipartisan commission.
17:14
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
17:15
SPEAKER_01: It's a bipartisan commission.
17:17
SPEAKER_01: Independent would mean there aren't legislators involved,
17:19
and it's like,
17:19
SPEAKER_01: what,
17:20
half legislators,
17:20
SPEAKER_01: half citizens,
17:21
SPEAKER_01: right?
17:22
SPEAKER_01: Something like that.
17:23
SPEAKER_01: So I don't know if I'll call it independent,
17:25
SPEAKER_01: but let's just call it the redistricting commission,
17:27
SPEAKER_01: right?
17:28
So that was passed overwhelmingly,
17:29
like,
17:30
two to one,
17:30
I believe,
17:31
in 2020,
17:32
right?
17:33
SPEAKER_01: There wasn't really much of a push from the Dems to try and defeat it.
17:38
SPEAKER_01: You know, I think it only carried Arlington, the no side of it.
17:43
SPEAKER_01: So...
17:44
One of the biggest proponents,
17:46
you know,
17:47
Dems won the 2019 elections,
17:48
right?
17:49
SPEAKER_01: They got a trifecta in Virginia.
17:51
SPEAKER_01: And there was this big push in the House of Delegates where,
17:56
you know,
17:56
the Dem caucus wanted to kill this because it had already been
18:01
passed in 2019,
18:04
SPEAKER_01: January 2019 or February,
18:06
SPEAKER_01: whatever,
18:07
SPEAKER_01: when the Republicans had a narrow majority.
18:10
SPEAKER_01: And so this got passed then.
18:11
It needed to pass again in January,
18:15
February that year for it to be on the ballot in November.
18:19
And so almost all the House Democrats were going to try and
18:23
kill this thing.
18:24
SPEAKER_01: However,
18:25
SPEAKER_01: there were a few legislators that wanted to make sure that we did have,
18:32
you know,
18:32
SPEAKER_01: bipartisan redistricting and everything.
18:35
SPEAKER_01: One of those legislators is Schuyler VanValkenburg.
18:37
The only way they could get Senator VanValkenburg on board was
18:42
pretty much if...
18:45
SPEAKER_01: you know,
18:46
SPEAKER_01: on board with this,
18:47
uh,
18:47
SPEAKER_01: was if,
18:48
SPEAKER_01: you know,
18:49
SPEAKER_01: there is an ensurement of the,
18:52
SPEAKER_01: you know,
18:53
SPEAKER_01: after 2030,
18:54
SPEAKER_01: we have the,
18:55
um,
18:56
SPEAKER_01: commission go back into play,
18:57
right.
18:57
Um,
18:58
that we're not going to be gerrymandered forever and that the
19:00
work doesn't go to waste.
19:01
SPEAKER_01: Right.
19:02
Um,
19:02
SPEAKER_01: now what is interesting is,
19:04
uh,
19:04
when we talk about if we get in this same sort of maybe mid
19:08
redistricting thing
19:09
SPEAKER_01: again,
19:10
SPEAKER_01: and 2030s,
19:11
SPEAKER_01: 2040s,
19:12
that word all future redistricting we'll we'll see what happens
19:17
there um when we
19:18
SPEAKER_01: talk about more court cases in a couple decades um or maybe next mess
19:23
yeah but anyway um so you know the the no campaign keeps
19:27
talking about temporarily
19:28
uh well nothing is temporary well no the only that literally
19:32
and and how this is
19:33
written um come 2030 uh what 2031 um we are going to be uh
19:39
having the commission
19:43
come back into effect uh unless i guess there is a a new
19:47
amendment another
19:48
SPEAKER_01: amendment yeah another amendment that gets passed you know
19:54
SPEAKER_02: The Democrats might not try that.
19:56
SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
19:58
SPEAKER_01: No, it depends on who's in the White House, right?
20:01
SPEAKER_01: Yes, that's the only way.
20:02
I think,
20:03
you know,
20:03
if Republicans win 2028,
20:04
then we'll be like,
20:05
no,
20:05
let's do it again.
20:07
SPEAKER_01: Maybe.
20:08
SPEAKER_01: Who knows?
20:09
SPEAKER_01: But anyway,
20:10
so that would be the only way is they would have to have a
20:12
whole 'nother vote to do
20:14
it.
20:14
SPEAKER_01: So I know that everybody talks about nothing is temporary.
20:17
SPEAKER_01: Nothing is temporary.
20:18
SPEAKER_01: Don't trust them.
20:19
SPEAKER_01: Totally valid.
20:21
uh, thing.
20:21
SPEAKER_01: And that was kind of my thing,
20:22
SPEAKER_01: uh,
20:23
SPEAKER_01: that I thought when,
20:25
SPEAKER_01: um,
20:26
you know,
20:26
SPEAKER_01: seeing that,
20:27
but it's like,
20:27
SPEAKER_01: you look at like the actual,
20:29
you know,
20:29
SPEAKER_01: amendment and it's like,
20:30
SPEAKER_01: no,
20:31
SPEAKER_01: it is going to go back into effect.
20:33
SPEAKER_01: Um, in 2031, unless they get a new amendment.
20:35
SPEAKER_01: So that's, that's one thing.
20:36
Um,
20:37
so,
20:38
you know,
20:38
uh,
20:39
I think that's one thing working for the yes campaign here.
20:41
SPEAKER_01: Other thing working for the yes campaign is they have so much money.
20:44
SPEAKER_01: They spent like over 50 million.
20:46
I'm going to guess there's probably another 10 million on the
20:48
way or something like that.
20:49
SPEAKER_01: You know,
20:50
SPEAKER_01: um,
20:51
maybe,
20:51
SPEAKER_01: maybe not that much,
20:52
SPEAKER_01: but there's going to be a couple more million that comes in.
20:54
Um,
20:54
so we're heavily outspending the no campaign who had pennies to
20:57
start.
20:58
SPEAKER_01: So we're only catching up.
21:00
SPEAKER_01: They had millions come in, but it wasn't, you know, they couldn't,
21:04
SPEAKER_01: Use that money for TV advertising where all the TVs are saying yes.
21:08
SPEAKER_01: So they're spending on digital,
21:09
SPEAKER_01: mail,
21:11
SPEAKER_01: radio,
21:12
all that sort of thing,
21:12
SPEAKER_01: which is,
21:13
SPEAKER_01: you know,
21:14
SPEAKER_01: not as effective as TV,
21:15
SPEAKER_01: honestly,
21:16
SPEAKER_01: for something like this.
21:17
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, you know, actually, I was curious for your thoughts on that.
21:19
SPEAKER_02: So just for folks,
21:24
SPEAKER_02: depending on what numbers you're looking at,
21:26
Ad Impact,
21:26
SPEAKER_02: and I'll bring it up here,
21:27
SPEAKER_02: had some figures the other day,
21:31
SPEAKER_02: the new ad from the No campaign.
21:34
SPEAKER_02: But essentially,
21:35
the yes side on TV ads was outspending the no side about $50
21:38
million to $18
21:39
SPEAKER_02: million.
21:42
SPEAKER_02: So, you know, pretty overwhelming.
21:43
SPEAKER_02: And then like in terms of overall contributions,
21:46
I think the last thing I looked at from the Virginia campaign
21:49
finance website was
21:50
it was it was essentially like the the pro the yes campaign has
21:55
their their main
21:56
committee had sixty four million dollars in contributions and
22:00
the the no side had
22:01
SPEAKER_02: about 20 million.
22:02
And then there were some other groups that might also be
22:04
considered counted into that.
22:05
SPEAKER_02: But nonetheless,
22:06
the pro side the yes side has a lot more money and i think it
22:10
is curious given how
22:11
competitive this this does seem and we're going to talk about
22:13
your poll here a
22:14
minute uh you know the fact that it it's within shouting
22:18
distance kind of right and
22:19
the fact that you don't see more investment from republicans
22:22
and the republican
22:23
side is is curious to me yeah no absolutely i think well so
22:27
here's the thing i
22:28
SPEAKER_01: think
22:30
SPEAKER_01: Uh, maybe part of this is my fault.
22:31
SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
22:32
SPEAKER_01: I'm, I'm part of the conventional wisdom, right?
22:34
In January,
22:34
SPEAKER_01: if you had asked me,
22:35
SPEAKER_01: I would have said,
22:36
SPEAKER_01: you know,
22:37
yes,
22:37
SPEAKER_01: probably wins by like double digits,
22:40
um,
22:40
SPEAKER_01: you know,
22:41
SPEAKER_01: or high single digits.
22:42
SPEAKER_01: Um, because there's like, no, no, like,
22:46
SPEAKER_01: And to be fair,
22:47
SPEAKER_01: it was like right after 2025 and just Republicans got shellacked,
22:53
SPEAKER_01: curb stomped,
22:54
SPEAKER_01: whatever adjective you want to throw.
22:55
SPEAKER_01: Right.
22:56
SPEAKER_01: So they got they had they had no organization, no nothing.
23:01
zilch right and so yeah i mean it's just all this money has
23:06
came in late it's
23:08
really you want to get in there early um because like we only
23:11
you know they they
23:12
both sides have internal polls and they're probably sharing
23:15
that and everything um
23:17
but the public stuff is important and we haven't had much
23:19
polling in this um you
23:21
know and we wanted to wait just like in to compare in the same
23:25
time frame as our
23:27
SPEAKER_01: late October survey um which did pretty well again
23:32
um so uh you know uh we only got here in the last second uh
23:38
right like the last
23:39
pretty much possible time frame unless we did like the weekend
23:41
before but that
23:42
SPEAKER_01: turnaround time is very very difficult
23:44
SPEAKER_02: Um, so you guys got it out pretty quick as it was.
23:48
SPEAKER_02: And I should just say for people watching and listening home,
23:50
I've,
23:50
SPEAKER_02: I've brought up actually the recent polling.
23:52
SPEAKER_02: And so maybe I'm go ahead and just say, uh, state navigate.
23:57
You guys found that the yes side ahead by about five percentage
24:01
points in the
24:02
SPEAKER_02: actual margin,
24:03
SPEAKER_02: but rounded it was 51-45.
24:06
SPEAKER_02: Yes to no.
24:07
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
24:08
SPEAKER_01: It's, um, it's 50.7 to 45.4.
24:10
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
24:15
So very similar to the Washington Post-Schar school poll from
24:19
George Mason,
24:20
SPEAKER_02: 5247 back at the end of March.
24:24
SPEAKER_02: There have been a couple,
24:26
there have been a handful of polls that have not necessarily
24:29
specified the ballot
24:30
SPEAKER_02: language that have found either,
24:33
SPEAKER_02: there was an earlier poll by Roanoke College that had it well behind,
24:37
SPEAKER_02: actually had no leading 52-44,
24:39
SPEAKER_02: but there was a poll.
24:42
off that is is they didn't do it's not just that they didn't do
24:46
the ballot language
24:47
and they're asking this question it was literally probably the
24:50
most biased toward
24:51
the no campaign um of any of these polls so and Roanoke College
24:56
was also the least
24:57
accurate pollster in 2025 so you know i'm not really looking at
25:01
that poll I'm gonna
25:03
SPEAKER_01: be honest with you
25:04
SPEAKER_01: Sure.
25:05
SPEAKER_02: No, no, I understand.
25:07
SPEAKER_02: I was just trying to give people sort of the full picture.
25:10
SPEAKER_02: I think you can look at these numbers and you see,
25:13
you know,
25:13
Neighborhood Research and Media is a Republican pollster,
25:16
had it basically tied at
25:18
SPEAKER_02: the beginning of April.
25:19
I don't I wasn't clear to me that they read out the ballot
25:22
language in full.
25:24
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I haven't looked at it.
25:26
SPEAKER_02: But, you know, and then there was a Cor Strategies poll.
25:30
in the latter half of March on behalf of Heritage Action that
25:33
was asking a bunch of
25:34
SPEAKER_02: questions basically to try to,
25:36
SPEAKER_02: it was from the Republican, conservative perspective on this,
25:39
trying to figure out sort of messaging it looked like that
25:42
could be used against
25:43
SPEAKER_02: the redistricting campaign.
25:44
SPEAKER_02: But when they asked about people's preferences, they found yes ahead.
25:50
by about nine points so they had more undecided than some of
25:52
these later polls have
25:53
had but nonetheless I think you can look at this and you can
25:57
sort of see okay we
25:58
see why yes is favored at least somewhat but I guess and
26:02
something I do want to
26:03
mention on that on that Heritage Action one is it like this is
26:06
the thing about the
26:07
Schar School and us and what we did is we put the question like
26:11
sort of like at the
26:12
very top whereas like they you know that Heritage Action one is
26:17
like I think in
26:18
SPEAKER_01: like the middle of the survey
26:19
SPEAKER_02: I think it was like the seventh or eighth question.
26:22
Well,
26:22
that and it was after a bunch of other questions about
26:25
redistricting.
26:26
SPEAKER_02: Right.
26:27
SPEAKER_01: So this is what we call priming in surveys.
26:32
SPEAKER_01: So kind of the intention of to, you know, get a result you want.
26:38
SPEAKER_01: But they didn't get a result they want, I don't think.
26:41
SPEAKER_01: It was bad survey design, honestly.
26:44
SPEAKER_01: When you do, this is like polling 101.
26:46
SPEAKER_01: If you want a great, accurate poll.
26:50
Now,
26:50
that being said,
26:50
I could absolutely see the new campaign winning by one.
26:55
SPEAKER_01: Honestly, one or two, I think.
26:58
SPEAKER_01: But that being said, you're getting like 45 to 36, right?
27:04
So you're like driving up your undecideds after all these
27:09
questions about redistricting.
27:11
Um,
27:11
so this,
27:11
SPEAKER_01: this is just one of the things is,
27:13
SPEAKER_01: you know,
27:14
SPEAKER_01: I think our poll and the Schar school poll,
27:17
SPEAKER_01: um,
27:18
uh,
27:18
again,
27:18
I,
27:18
SPEAKER_01: I don't remember the Neighborhood Research and Media.
27:21
Um,
27:21
I would be a little concerned with the amount of those
27:23
undecideds there.
27:24
Um,
27:25
you know,
27:26
and also the sample size on that,
27:28
um,
27:28
you know,
27:28
that's the smallest one here.
27:29
SPEAKER_01: Right.
27:30
SPEAKER_01: I think that is,
27:31
SPEAKER_01: I think it's very hard to do a,
27:33
SPEAKER_01: um,
27:34
you know,
27:34
SPEAKER_01: uh,
27:35
SPEAKER_01: uh,
27:37
SPEAKER_01: high quality survey in a statewide election with 319.
27:40
SPEAKER_01: Um,
27:41
SPEAKER_01: For state legislative district, that's fine, right?
27:42
SPEAKER_01: Which is what I love.
27:44
SPEAKER_01: But yeah.
27:45
SPEAKER_01: So that's- Yeah,
27:46
you know,
27:46
SPEAKER_02: with any of these things,
27:47
SPEAKER_02: it's a margin of error question and how,
27:50
SPEAKER_02: you know,
27:51
obviously a smaller sample size is going to give you a larger
27:54
margin of error.
27:56
But I guess to sort of maybe talk about some of the nuts and
28:01
bolts of your poll a
28:02
SPEAKER_02: little bit more,
28:03
SPEAKER_02: knowing that sort of this overall picture is
28:06
SPEAKER_02: It seems like, yes, may have at least some of an edge.
28:10
SPEAKER_02: And so I guess I was curious,
28:12
SPEAKER_02: you know,
28:13
for instance,
28:13
SPEAKER_02: I know in your poll,
28:16
SPEAKER_02: you know,
28:17
SPEAKER_02: you obviously Democrats were overwhelmingly supportive.
28:20
SPEAKER_02: Republicans were overwhelmingly opposed.
28:23
SPEAKER_02: But I did find it interesting.
28:24
SPEAKER_02: You know,
28:25
you guys,
28:25
I think,
28:25
SPEAKER_02: used leaned partisanship in that people who are Democrats, who are lean
28:30
Democrats,
28:30
SPEAKER_02: because a lot of people say they're independent,
28:31
SPEAKER_02: but actually regularly lean toward one party.
28:34
SPEAKER_02: They weren't included as True Independents,
28:36
but interestingly,
28:36
SPEAKER_02: True Independents were pretty opposed to that.
28:39
Right.
28:39
SPEAKER_01: So that's like one in 10 voters in Virginia,
28:42
SPEAKER_01: pretty much in most standard Virginia elections,
28:44
SPEAKER_01: regardless of the environment.
28:46
SPEAKER_01: So,
28:47
you know,
28:47
SPEAKER_01: in the Gallup,
28:49
SPEAKER_01: according to party ID,
28:51
SPEAKER_01: like,
28:52
you know,
28:52
SPEAKER_01: true independents,
28:53
SPEAKER_01: if I recall correctly,
28:55
SPEAKER_01: went down,
28:57
SPEAKER_01: you know,
28:58
compared to Q3,
28:58
SPEAKER_01: because,
28:59
you know,
28:59
SPEAKER_01: just modeled on Q3,
29:01
SPEAKER_01: right?
29:02
Because,
29:02
SPEAKER_01: you know,
29:03
like Q4,
29:03
I didn't have Q4 when we were doing the waiting for the late
29:06
October survey,
29:07
SPEAKER_01: because we're in the middle of it.
29:09
SPEAKER_01: Um, so, uh, you know, yes.
29:13
SPEAKER_01: I mean, this is the big thing here, you know, is that Jay Jones, right?
29:19
SPEAKER_01: Um,
29:20
SPEAKER_01: uh,
29:21
even though a whole bunch of controversies and all that stuff
29:24
with the tax and the
29:25
SPEAKER_01: speeding and all that sort of thing,
29:27
SPEAKER_01: he still won these true independent voters,
29:30
SPEAKER_01: um,
29:32
SPEAKER_01: uh,
29:33
SPEAKER_01: by what was it?
29:34
SPEAKER_01: Uh, nine points in the late October survey.
29:37
SPEAKER_01: The no campaign is winning this group by 24 points.
29:43
SPEAKER_01: That's a 33-point swing.
29:47
SPEAKER_01: So, I mean, here's the thing.
29:48
If the independents make up a larger part of this electorate
29:54
than what is expected,
29:56
SPEAKER_01: you know,
29:57
SPEAKER_01: let's say maybe...
29:59
what 12%,
30:00
13% something like that uh and then the the other part here for
30:04
no to win
30:05
and pull off an upset here would be the election day turnout
30:09
needs to be a bigger
30:11
SPEAKER_01: composite of the electorate than what our polls suggest right.
30:15
SPEAKER_01: 32% say they're
30:16
going to vote on election day but if we use the error because
30:19
voters think highly
30:20
SPEAKER_01: of themselves right they think I'm a
30:23
SPEAKER_01: I'll get my ballot in early.
30:24
SPEAKER_01: I'll go get in line at an early vote.
30:26
SPEAKER_01: Even though I've never done it before, right?
30:28
SPEAKER_01: So it was like 41% of people in our late October survey,
30:33
SPEAKER_01: which is about the same time frame,
30:34
SPEAKER_01: said they were going to vote on election day.
30:36
SPEAKER_01: So that's a nine-point difference.
30:38
SPEAKER_01: But in 2025, it wasn't 41% were voting on election day.
30:43
SPEAKER_01: It was 55%.
30:45
SPEAKER_01: So if we take that error right there, or sorry, it was like 56% or 57%.
30:51
SPEAKER_01: So if we take that error there and we apply it to this survey,
30:54
SPEAKER_01: that would mean that Election Day probably is,
30:58
SPEAKER_01: you know,
31:00
SPEAKER_01: 47,
31:01
SPEAKER_01: 48 percent of the electorate.
31:04
SPEAKER_01: It needs to be a majority.
31:07
SPEAKER_01: you know, in 2024, I think 53% of Virginians actually voted early.
31:13
SPEAKER_01: So that was,
31:14
SPEAKER_01: I think,
31:16
that and COVID were the only two times I think majority of
31:19
Virginians voted early.
31:22
SPEAKER_01: So, but like 2020 is very different.
31:24
SPEAKER_01: We're talking about voting behavior and everything.
31:26
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
31:28
SPEAKER_01: So, you know, that's sort of the thing is obviously, you know,
31:35
SPEAKER_01: For no to win independence have to come out more.
31:39
SPEAKER_01: And, you know, I think.
31:41
I mean,
31:41
look,
31:41
the early vote is redder compared to 2025 at this point,
31:44
right?
31:45
SPEAKER_01: We have a partisan tracker that we'll get into, I think, later.
31:48
SPEAKER_01: Well, actually, we could talk about it now.
31:51
SPEAKER_02: I mean, let me put it up on screen here for folks.
31:55
SPEAKER_02: So State Navigate has this great partisan.
31:58
SPEAKER_02: You could even talk a little bit about how you guys did this,
32:00
SPEAKER_02: but it's essentially,
32:02
SPEAKER_02: because remember,
32:03
SPEAKER_02: it's worth noting for people at home,
32:05
SPEAKER_02: Virginia is one of the states that does not have
32:08
SPEAKER_02: party registration.
32:09
So you have to find other ways of doing this than simply just
32:14
looking at a lot of
32:15
SPEAKER_02: states that'll be like,
32:16
well,
32:16
SPEAKER_02: the percentage of voters were registered Democrats.
32:20
SPEAKER_02: We don't have that in Virginia to work with.
32:23
SPEAKER_02: But as you can see,
32:25
SPEAKER_02: if you're looking at home,
32:26
SPEAKER_02: it's about 59-41 right now,
32:28
SPEAKER_02: in your estimated early vote party split.
32:32
SPEAKER_02: So please, I'd love if you wanted to lay that out for people a
32:35
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, absolutely.
32:36
SPEAKER_01: So this uses lieutenant governor race in 2021 as a baseline.
32:40
SPEAKER_01: Why not attorney general and why not governor?
32:42
SPEAKER_01: Well, the- Oh, sorry.
32:44
SPEAKER_02: Did you mean 2025 or?
32:47
2025.
32:47
SPEAKER_02: Lieutenant governor.
32:48
Yeah.
32:48
Sorry.
32:48
SPEAKER_02: Sorry.
32:49
SPEAKER_02: I was making sure.
32:50
SPEAKER_01: So it uses the lieutenant governor race in 2025.
32:53
SPEAKER_01: Why?
32:55
SPEAKER_01: Because the electorate in 2025 was probably Harris plus nine or 10,
33:03
SPEAKER_01: which is about,
33:04
you know,
33:04
SPEAKER_01: like why our survey was more accurate because,
33:06
you know,
33:06
SPEAKER_01: then the rest of the pack is everyone's weighting to 2024,
33:08
SPEAKER_01: which was silly when we talk about how Virginia governor elections work.
33:12
SPEAKER_01: So I think our poll was like Harris plus nine.
33:16
SPEAKER_01: So,
33:17
you know,
33:17
about nine or 10 and the closest statewide race to that
33:23
presidential vote,
33:24
SPEAKER_01: which in political science,
33:25
honestly,
33:25
SPEAKER_01: is what we would consider a normal vote.
33:27
SPEAKER_01: There still is persuasion.
33:29
SPEAKER_01: Um, in, uh, these, you know, presidential elections.
33:33
Um,
33:33
SPEAKER_01: but it is less when we talk about states that,
33:36
SPEAKER_01: um,
33:37
are,
33:37
SPEAKER_01: are not swings or true swing states,
33:39
SPEAKER_01: right?
33:40
Um,
33:40
SPEAKER_01: Virginia is a lean,
33:42
SPEAKER_01: lean democratic state,
33:43
SPEAKER_01: but it's not a true swing state like,
33:44
SPEAKER_01: like Wisconsin.
33:45
So that's just a little poli sci there for the reason why we
33:48
decided to go with this election.
33:50
SPEAKER_01: Um,
33:51
SPEAKER_01: so,
33:52
uh,
33:52
that is the closest election to what is considered a normal
33:56
vote where people
33:58
SPEAKER_01: choose their,
33:59
you know,
33:59
SPEAKER_01: party preference,
34:01
um,
34:01
SPEAKER_01: when they get the ballot.
34:02
Right.
34:02
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
34:03
It's worth mentioning.
34:03
SPEAKER_02: Ghazala Hashmi,
34:04
SPEAKER_02: the,
34:05
the Lieutenant governor,
34:05
SPEAKER_02: she won by a little bit less than 12 points,
34:09
SPEAKER_02: um,
34:10
SPEAKER_02: the Lieutenant Governor's race.
34:11
SPEAKER_02: Right.
34:12
SPEAKER_01: So that was the closest.
34:13
SPEAKER_01: So Abigail Spanberger, yeah, she won by, um,
34:15
SPEAKER_01: But 15.3 percent, Jay Jones won by 6.7.
34:18
SPEAKER_01: So the Hashmi race and lieutenant governor,
34:21
SPEAKER_01: her margin was the closest to,
34:23
you know,
34:23
SPEAKER_01: the actual partisan composite of the Virginia electorate.
34:27
SPEAKER_01: So, um, you know, that is the, uh, where these numbers come from.
34:32
SPEAKER_01: Um, it was, it's really funny.
34:34
I actually got like an email from,
34:35
uh,
34:36
one of our fans,
34:38
um,
34:38
who is wanting to remain anonymous.
34:41
Um,
34:41
SPEAKER_01: but you know,
34:42
SPEAKER_01: I got the email late and I looked at it and he's like,
34:45
SPEAKER_01: you could provide,
34:48
um,
34:48
SPEAKER_01: cause we have a whole bunch of data on this interactive.
34:50
SPEAKER_01: If you're not supposed to look at it,
34:51
you know,
34:51
SPEAKER_01: like,
34:52
um,
34:52
SPEAKER_01: you can hover over and see like same day.
34:55
Yeah, actually.
34:55
SPEAKER_02: It's worth, it's worth for just for folks at home.
34:58
This is one of the things where I think when you're talking
34:59
about it being a little
35:00
SPEAKER_02: bit more Republican leaning of an electorate,
35:03
you broke down precincts by their early voting and their margin
35:08
in the 2025
35:09
SPEAKER_02: gubernatorial race.
35:11
And you found that early voting was basically up the more
35:14
Republican precinct,
35:15
SPEAKER_02: somewhat more likely to be up.
35:17
SPEAKER_02: in terms of its early voting versus 2025.
35:20
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's not a huge correlation, right?
35:23
SPEAKER_01: But either way,
35:24
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
35:25
yes,
35:25
SPEAKER_01: this electorate in the early vote,
35:27
SPEAKER_01: and you can also see this in the poll.
35:30
SPEAKER_01: I think there was a table actually in the bottom of the article we had.
35:35
The early vote in our poll is a little bit redder compared to
35:38
the attorney general race.
35:39
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, right here, right?
35:40
SPEAKER_02: I think I had this one, yeah, yeah.
35:42
SPEAKER_01: So you can see, like, the voted early in person is yes plus six.
35:46
SPEAKER_01: The voted early in person,
35:48
which,
35:48
again,
35:48
this was,
35:48
SPEAKER_01: like,
35:49
SPEAKER_01: around the same time frame as,
35:51
SPEAKER_01: you know,
35:53
SPEAKER_01: the 2025 election,
35:54
SPEAKER_01: was Jones plus 14.
35:57
SPEAKER_01: So,
35:58
SPEAKER_01: and this is the other thing,
35:59
though,
35:59
SPEAKER_01: that's good for the yes campaign is in these final days of early voting,
36:03
SPEAKER_01: right?
36:04
The final,
36:04
SPEAKER_01: the poll closed on Monday at 2 p.m.
36:07
SPEAKER_01: with the last time we texted,
36:08
SPEAKER_01: the last round of text was...
36:11
SPEAKER_01: Sunday at 1 p.m. when this was in the field, right?
36:15
SPEAKER_01: April 10th through the 13th was the fielding dates.
36:20
The last few days of early voting looks like it's going to be
36:25
actually bluer
36:26
SPEAKER_01: compared to that same time frame.
36:27
SPEAKER_01: Why?
36:28
SPEAKER_01: Well, we have in Virginia what is known as satellite voting locations.
36:33
For satellite voting locations,
36:35
when you have a large county like Fairfax,
36:37
right,
36:39
SPEAKER_01: And you can see like where you have a little bit of discrepancy now,
36:42
SPEAKER_01: because now at this point,
36:43
SPEAKER_01: and this wasn't how it was,
36:45
you know,
36:45
SPEAKER_01: maybe two weeks ago,
36:48
right?
36:48
SPEAKER_01: What Fairfax was very close to its 2025,
36:52
you know,
36:52
SPEAKER_01: vote share,
36:53
SPEAKER_01: but still nowhere near as much as like,
36:55
you know,
36:55
SPEAKER_01: Buchanan County and Southwest.
36:57
Um,
36:58
Fairfax County has three early voting locations,
37:01
um,
37:01
in a county of over 1 million people.
37:04
Um,
37:04
and it's a pretty big county by,
37:05
you know,
37:06
all,
37:06
uh,
37:06
you know,
37:07
especially with,
37:08
with.
37:09
SPEAKER_01: Fairfax is about an eighth of the state's population, give or take.
37:11
SPEAKER_01: So, you know, it's big.
37:13
SPEAKER_01: So three voting locations are open in Fairfax County.
37:16
SPEAKER_01: And this is just one example.
37:17
And this happens in great places like in Loudoun and Prince
37:20
William and Chesterfield.
37:22
SPEAKER_01: Right.
37:23
SPEAKER_01: These other big blue localities.
37:25
SPEAKER_01: And it's funny, you know, 10 years ago, Chesterfield was Chesterfield.
37:30
SPEAKER_01: I feel like you're on you're on something.
37:32
Right.
37:32
Chesterfield used to be a very rock-ribbed Republican place,
37:35
but like a lot of suburban places.
37:37
uh places in the country and in Virginia it has gotten bluer um
37:41
and is now even I
37:44
mean it's Spanberger won it actually somewhat comfortably yeah
37:48
yeah so um uh you
37:51
know there has been a reduction in access to these satellite
37:55
these extra satellite
37:56
voting locations where instead of three early voting locations
37:58
throughout most of
37:59
early voting in Fairfax County I think it goes up maybe like
38:03
double or triple
38:04
right so instead of like a 30 to 45 minute drive uh to the
38:08
nearest early vocation
38:10
sometimes or you know at least 20 minutes it's like maybe 10
38:15
maybe 15 um or less
38:17
right depends on how close you are to your nearest early voting
38:19
location and
38:20
traffic in a very traffic heavy area I was gonna say it depends
38:23
on what's the
38:24
SPEAKER_02: traffic on the Fairfax County Parkway or exactly right
38:29
SPEAKER_01: So this is the thing,
38:30
SPEAKER_01: is that the Virginia Board of Elections,
38:34
SPEAKER_01: you know,
38:35
SPEAKER_01: I think a lot of people were expecting turnout to be lower than 2025,
38:39
SPEAKER_01: where,
38:40
SPEAKER_01: you know,
38:42
SPEAKER_01: 54.22% of registered Virginia voters voted.
38:46
Now,
38:46
SPEAKER_01: that being said,
38:48
SPEAKER_01: because of this poll,
38:49
SPEAKER_01: I do think turnout is going to be lower than 2025,
38:51
SPEAKER_01: but we are still looking at blockbuster turnout.
38:54
SPEAKER_01: I would be surprised if...
38:56
You know,
38:57
turnout was,
38:58
you know,
38:58
less than half of registered Virginia voters.
39:02
SPEAKER_01: I would be kind of surprised.
39:04
SPEAKER_01: Right.
39:05
SPEAKER_01: So, you know, the.
39:10
SPEAKER_01: Because of the expectations on turnout, there was a reduction in access.
39:15
And this is also there was a deduction in access in 2025
39:17
compared to 2024.
39:19
SPEAKER_01: Right.
39:20
SPEAKER_01: So this is something very important when we talk about looking at this.
39:23
SPEAKER_01: But that being said,
39:25
SPEAKER_01: you know,
39:26
SPEAKER_01: so we'll see basically,
39:27
SPEAKER_01: you know,
39:28
SPEAKER_01: if over the next few days of early voting by the end here.
39:32
Right.
39:32
SPEAKER_01: I think early voting ends on Saturday or Sunday.
39:35
SPEAKER_01: I think maybe depends on the locality.
39:37
um we will see if the early vote does get you know what one to
39:41
three points bluer
39:42
than what this is right which is like what an 18 or 19 point
39:44
margin um so that's
39:47
going to be something important here um now this being keep in
39:51
mind this is not
39:52
SPEAKER_01: saying that
39:55
the early vote is going to be a 20-point margin thereabouts for
39:58
yes,
39:59
right?
40:00
SPEAKER_01: Look at our poll where,
40:02
you know,
40:02
we have the early in-person vote much more favorable to the no
40:06
campaign than what
40:07
SPEAKER_01: Jason Miyares was getting,
40:08
SPEAKER_01: right?
40:10
SPEAKER_01: It is a partisan expectation of where,
40:14
SPEAKER_01: you know,
40:15
SPEAKER_01: what the composite of the electorate looks like ballpark,
40:18
you know,
40:18
SPEAKER_01: maybe off by two points or something like that.
40:21
um so uh that's that's one other thing to you know keep in mind
40:26
check this every
40:27
day and see if our if it gets you know uh I think north of
40:32
three points bluer I
40:34
think you can uh probably bet on yes winning unless there is a
40:39
big election day uh
40:42
SPEAKER_01: turnout um and especially I think in places like Hanover where I grew up
40:48
Where,
40:48
SPEAKER_01: you know,
40:49
SPEAKER_01: I think during most of early voting,
40:51
it hasn't been as blockbuster turnout compared to areas like
40:55
Rockingham or,
40:57
SPEAKER_01: you know,
40:58
SPEAKER_01: any of the very rural counties or anything like that.
41:00
SPEAKER_02: Or some of the ones that have gotten thrown into Northern Virginia.
41:03
SPEAKER_02: Well, I guess Hanover has as well, but it's just interesting to me.
41:06
SPEAKER_02: Being from the Shenandoah Valley originally,
41:10
SPEAKER_02: it's pretty clear that there are a lot of people,
41:11
SPEAKER_02: and these are some of the redder counties in the state.
41:16
SPEAKER_01: And very populous red counties.
41:18
SPEAKER_02: They are frustrated.
41:20
SPEAKER_02: I mean, understandably.
41:23
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
41:25
And that's the thing you can see in our map where you can like
41:28
look at the yes in
41:30
SPEAKER_01: the in the poll in the article.
41:31
We have like an interactive where you click on yes and you can
41:33
see a lot of the no
41:36
SPEAKER_01: voters are like from rural and sort of exurban and suburban areas.
41:42
Right.
41:42
SPEAKER_01: So, yeah, like click click no on the top there.
41:46
Yep,
41:46
SPEAKER_01: and you can see it's a lot of rural areas and,
41:48
SPEAKER_01: you know,
41:49
SPEAKER_01: a little bit in the suburbs and in exurbs.
41:52
SPEAKER_01: And then click on yes,
41:53
SPEAKER_01: and you can see it's pretty much the cities and the suburbs,
41:59
SPEAKER_01: maybe a little bit of rural,
42:00
SPEAKER_01: but nowhere near as much as no.
42:02
SPEAKER_01: So this thing is that because the yes campaign is getting...
42:07
SPEAKER_01: annihilated with the independents who are one in 10 of the electorate.
42:11
SPEAKER_01: They need their hardcore Dems to come out for this thing in droves.
42:15
SPEAKER_01: If they don't put a fork in them right now, um, uh,
42:22
You know,
42:22
I think that they have been doing a good job at getting their
42:27
hardcore Dems out to
42:29
SPEAKER_01: vote,
42:30
you know,
42:30
SPEAKER_01: but they still are losing ground with some of their voters.
42:36
SPEAKER_01: You know,
42:37
and I think what was really interesting is especially like high
42:40
income areas in
42:41
Virginia,
42:41
SPEAKER_01: right?
42:42
These are hot.
42:42
These are areas in Virginia that swung heavily down ballot from
42:46
Abigail Spanberger
42:48
SPEAKER_01: to Jason Miyares,
42:49
SPEAKER_01: the Republican and Attorney General race,
42:51
SPEAKER_01: right?
42:53
You know,
42:53
if you looked at a swing map from that to that or a swing map
42:58
of 2024 presidential
43:00
SPEAKER_01: to 2025 attorney general,
43:01
you'll see a lot of the people who split their tickets and
43:05
voted for Abigail
43:06
SPEAKER_01: Spanberger,
43:07
the Democratic governor and Jade and Attorney General Meares or
43:10
Republican for
43:11
SPEAKER_01: attorney general.
43:13
SPEAKER_01: They're in places like western Chesterfield,
43:15
SPEAKER_01: Virginia Beach,
43:16
SPEAKER_01: especially northern Virginia Beach,
43:18
SPEAKER_01: North Arlington,
43:19
SPEAKER_01: right?
43:20
SPEAKER_01: And we have this great thing in the article,
43:23
SPEAKER_01: if you scroll down,
43:24
SPEAKER_01: where you can see this chart of the swing by income,
43:32
SPEAKER_01: where you can see that the voters who are of higher income
43:37
SPEAKER_01: more likely to swing,
43:40
uh,
43:40
SPEAKER_01: to the no campaign compared to,
43:43
you know,
43:43
SPEAKER_01: when we asked people,
43:45
SPEAKER_01: who did you vote for in 2025 in the governor race?
43:48
Right.
43:48
SPEAKER_01: So, um, you know, lower income voters, less likely.
43:53
Um,
43:53
SPEAKER_01: so when we talk about,
43:54
you know,
43:54
SPEAKER_01: if you're,
43:55
SPEAKER_01: if you're looking at,
43:57
uh,
43:57
SPEAKER_01: you know,
43:58
oh,
43:58
SPEAKER_01: well,
43:59
SPEAKER_01: Midlothian,
44:00
SPEAKER_01: Virginia,
44:01
SPEAKER_01: wealthy suburb in Chesterfield,
44:03
SPEAKER_01: is swinging so heavily from the 2025 gubernatorial margin, right?
44:07
SPEAKER_01: I've got the 2025 governor results in front of me,
44:09
SPEAKER_01: and it's like swinging 20 points to the no campaign.
44:13
SPEAKER_01: Well, you may also want to check Norfolk.
44:16
SPEAKER_01: You may also want to check, you know.
44:19
SPEAKER_01: McLean.
44:21
right Northern Virginia yeah so you gotta look at the low
44:24
income areas and high income areas
44:27
you can't just look at you know like uh that sort of thing
44:30
because this is a big
44:31
divide here and where uh the no campaign is doing really well
44:35
relative to last year
44:36
SPEAKER_01: um so but yeah I mean point point being
44:41
SPEAKER_01: No campaign needs more independents to come out.
44:44
They need to maybe get a little more money and see what they
44:48
can do with that to
44:50
SPEAKER_01: try and catch up to the yes campaign.
44:52
And they would also need to just have a much bigger election
44:56
day turnout than what we expect.
44:57
And,
44:58
you know,
44:58
I was I was told,
45:00
you know,
45:00
by someone who is very smart on who.
45:05
uh is a Republican uh that well you know no uh the western part
45:09
of Virginia in the
45:11
media markets of Charlottesville,
45:14
Rockingham,
45:14
Augusta,
45:15
Harrisonburg,
45:15
Staunton
45:16
SPEAKER_01: Waynesboro right very republican in the Shenandoah Valley and Roanoke and
45:23
Bristol right this is what we we kind of lump it together when
45:27
we talk about
45:28
SPEAKER_01: western Virginia in our poll um
45:32
know they had a pretty good response rate so maybe that is true
45:36
um but we also had
45:39
this in one of our other polls i think it was our first or
45:43
second statewide survey
45:45
SPEAKER_01: when we talk about like just just the raw responses right
45:48
And even then,
45:49
we've given,
45:50
you know,
45:52
western Virginia a little bit higher of the vote share.
45:55
I think maybe by maybe like a point or something compared to
45:59
what they had in 2025
46:01
SPEAKER_01: in those in those markets as a share of the electorate.
46:04
SPEAKER_01: So,
46:05
SPEAKER_01: you know,
46:07
now,
46:07
SPEAKER_01: that being said,
46:08
something that is different compared to the raw responses in
46:11
this poll versus the
46:12
other one is that is much closer to our targeted weights of the
46:15
actual Virginia
46:16
SPEAKER_01: electorate.
46:17
SPEAKER_01: Right.
46:18
SPEAKER_01: compared to like one of those other surveys where it was,
46:21
SPEAKER_01: you know,
46:22
more older,
46:22
SPEAKER_01: more wider,
46:23
SPEAKER_01: more public.
46:24
SPEAKER_01: Um,
46:25
SPEAKER_01: so,
46:26
uh,
46:26
SPEAKER_01: you know,
46:27
SPEAKER_01: if there is this big election day turnout and,
46:29
you know,
46:29
SPEAKER_01: uh,
46:30
SPEAKER_01: I and my team,
46:33
um,
46:33
on the committees and staff are going to be calling up as many
46:35
registrars in
46:36
SPEAKER_01: Virginia at their,
46:38
you know,
46:38
SPEAKER_01: preaching check-in times and say,
46:40
Hey,
46:40
SPEAKER_01: you know,
46:41
what's,
46:41
SPEAKER_01: what's your County turnout?
46:42
SPEAKER_02: What's your turnout?
46:43
What's your turnout?
46:43
SPEAKER_02: Well, what DDHQ will be doing the same thing.
46:45
We will be finding out throughout the day what,
46:48
what election day turnout's looking like.
46:50
right so that is the thing you know if we see like blockbuster
46:53
turnout in Hanover
46:55
and maybe Fairfax especially Prince William and Loudoun uh are
46:59
lacking um that's
47:01
SPEAKER_01: where it's like oh
47:03
SPEAKER_01: The no campaign might be on track to win here, right?
47:07
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, because actually, you know, I thought it was interesting.
47:08
I took a little back of the envelope math with the numbers that
47:09
you've put together
47:14
SPEAKER_02: in terms of the early vote at this point and then the percentages.
47:20
SPEAKER_02: Your point that,
47:21
like,
47:21
SPEAKER_02: if it swung similarly to how people responded in your gubernatorial poll,
47:25
you know,
47:25
SPEAKER_02: you might have a 47%,
47:27
SPEAKER_02: 48% election day vote.
47:30
SPEAKER_02: And,
47:31
you know,
47:31
SPEAKER_02: using your sort of crosstab of like Democratic support,
47:35
SPEAKER_02: it seemed to me it was like,
47:37
well,
47:37
SPEAKER_02: maybe Democratic Republican support at this point.
47:41
SPEAKER_02: Maybe it's like if it's breaking out that way,
47:44
it might be sort of a 55-45 kind of situation with where the
47:48
early vote is,
47:49
SPEAKER_02: which then means,
47:50
you know,
47:50
SPEAKER_02: if you're the no campaign,
47:52
SPEAKER_02: you might need to win.
47:54
56-44 or something on the election day to have a shot if
47:57
there's not as much for
47:58
SPEAKER_02: election day vote.
47:59
SPEAKER_02: But obviously the election day vote is bigger.
48:01
You don't have to win it by as much because you're just getting
48:05
more raw votes out
48:07
SPEAKER_02: of the election day.
48:08
All the,
48:09
I think,
48:09
I think maybe even Jason Miyares lost election day in 2025.
48:12
SPEAKER_01: Maybe I'm wrong or maybe he,
48:14
uh,
48:15
SPEAKER_01: only narrowly won it,
48:16
but,
48:16
um,
48:16
SPEAKER_01: you know,
48:17
SPEAKER_01: he got blown out in early vote.
48:18
SPEAKER_01: So,
48:19
SPEAKER_01: um,
48:20
he,
48:20
I actually,
48:20
SPEAKER_02: I do have,
48:21
SPEAKER_02: I have the numbers up in front of me cause I was comparing it to the,
48:23
SPEAKER_02: the gov LG and AG races and yeah,
48:25
SPEAKER_02: he,
48:26
SPEAKER_02: he won it by a half point.
48:27
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
48:28
There you go.
48:28
SPEAKER_01: We're near what he needed.
48:30
Right.
48:30
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
48:31
Um,
48:31
So,
48:32
yeah,
48:33
I think that like the no campaign needs to win election day by
48:37
at least five.
48:38
And if they're only winning by five,
48:40
it's got to be a majority of the vote.
48:42
SPEAKER_01: Can't can't do it without that.
48:43
You know,
48:43
SPEAKER_01: if I was them,
48:44
SPEAKER_01: I would be trying to get,
48:47
SPEAKER_01: you know,
48:48
SPEAKER_01: probably like a double digit margin if they can with just,
48:51
SPEAKER_01: you know,
48:52
SPEAKER_01: these Republican voters who maybe didn't turn out last year,
48:55
SPEAKER_01: but they're used to voting on election day and they come out.
48:57
SPEAKER_01: So it all comes down to turnout, doesn't it?
49:00
SPEAKER_01: All comes down to.
49:01
Well,
49:01
SPEAKER_02: I think in a race like this,
49:03
SPEAKER_02: given the high degree of,
49:08
SPEAKER_02: I mean,
49:09
SPEAKER_02: animosity or support,
49:10
SPEAKER_02: you know,
49:11
SPEAKER_02: it's Democrats mad at Trump who are willing to support this,
49:14
SPEAKER_02: even if they find it sort of,
49:16
SPEAKER_02: you know,
49:17
SPEAKER_02: distasteful,
49:19
SPEAKER_02: because you are talking about,
49:20
and I'll actually go ahead and bring up your guys' map of the
49:23
gerrymander here,
49:24
SPEAKER_02: because it is...
49:26
SPEAKER_02: It's a pretty significant one.
49:28
SPEAKER_01: The lobster being the most notorious, the seventh congressional district.
49:32
SPEAKER_01: I think it's a scorpion.
49:33
SPEAKER_01: I knew you were going to say a lot.
49:34
A scorpion's good.
49:34
SPEAKER_02: Scorpion's good.
49:35
SPEAKER_02: I like scorpion.
49:36
SPEAKER_02: Scorpion's good as well.
49:37
SPEAKER_01: We were the first ones to post an interactive of the map.
49:44
We spent the entire day when we found out the Macs were going
49:47
to be dropping
49:48
SPEAKER_01: sometime in the evening,
49:50
preparing for where we just needed the Virginia LIS legislative
49:54
services to upload
49:55
the shapefile.
49:55
SPEAKER_01: We got the shapefile, imported it, and boom.
49:58
SPEAKER_01: Everybody's been posting our Mac.
49:59
SPEAKER_01: Even the note campaign is using it in materials.
50:02
SPEAKER_01: Look, we're a nonpartisan nonprofit.
50:04
SPEAKER_01: We're not advocating or against whatever.
50:07
Use this out there.
50:07
SPEAKER_01: People can use it.
50:08
SPEAKER_01: Right,
50:09
SPEAKER_01: but people are,
50:10
like,
50:10
SPEAKER_01: posting the map,
50:11
SPEAKER_01: and it's like,
50:12
SPEAKER_01: I was one who said that I think it looks like a scorpion,
50:14
SPEAKER_01: but everyone's like,
50:15
no,
50:15
it's a lobster.
50:15
SPEAKER_01: I'm like, do I not get any say on this?
50:17
SPEAKER_01: Maybe a lobster's a funnier animal than a scorpion.
50:20
SPEAKER_02: I think so.
50:21
SPEAKER_01: You know, like Larry the Lobster, I've seen that meme a little bit.
50:25
Um,
50:25
but you know,
50:25
SPEAKER_01: I think,
50:26
SPEAKER_01: I think that people are talking about like,
50:28
well,
50:28
SPEAKER_01: no,
50:29
SPEAKER_01: it's a scorpion because the poison is in the tail.
50:31
SPEAKER_01: Right.
50:32
SPEAKER_01: Um, so, you know, that's a good one.
50:34
Cause yeah,
50:34
SPEAKER_02: in that district,
50:35
SPEAKER_02: all the blue vote is mostly up in the,
50:38
SPEAKER_02: in Northern up into Arlington.
50:39
SPEAKER_02: It's Arlington.
50:41
SPEAKER_01: Right.
50:42
SPEAKER_01: Um, yeah.
50:43
SPEAKER_01: So, but yeah, I mean, it's great interactive.
50:46
SPEAKER_01: Um,
50:47
you know,
50:47
if,
50:47
SPEAKER_01: if your audience wants to look at it,
50:49
SPEAKER_01: you just go to,
50:50
um,
50:50
SPEAKER_01: State navigate Virginia and go to interactives and just look for this.
50:54
SPEAKER_01: But, yeah, you know, absolutely.
50:56
You know,
50:56
SPEAKER_01: what I do think is interesting,
50:57
SPEAKER_01: we asked about this in the poll,
50:59
SPEAKER_01: is that college town district,
51:01
where,
51:01
you know,
51:01
SPEAKER_01: this would be the youngest congressional district in the country.
51:05
SPEAKER_01: And so...
51:06
SPEAKER_01: I think I counted...
51:07
SPEAKER_02: 13 four-year schools?
51:10
I think 14.
51:10
SPEAKER_02: I think it's 14.
51:12
SPEAKER_01: Okay, maybe I missed one.
51:13
SPEAKER_01: I think it's like a small one.
51:15
SPEAKER_01: You know, maybe like...
51:17
But you have James Madison University,
51:19
University of Virginia,
51:21
Virginia Tech,
51:22
Radford.
51:23
SPEAKER_02: You know, those are the big, big schools that are in there.
51:27
SPEAKER_01: How do you not mention JMU from Harrisonburg?
51:30
No, I did.
51:30
SPEAKER_02: I said James Madison.
51:34
SPEAKER_02: It also has Liberty.
51:35
SPEAKER_02: It also has Liberty the most.
51:36
Oh, my God.
51:36
SPEAKER_02: And, of course, Liberty.
51:38
Which is interesting,
51:39
though,
51:39
because that actually...
51:40
That's a conservative one.
51:41
SPEAKER_02: That was actually an interesting move to not...
51:44
SPEAKER_02: If they were really being
51:47
SPEAKER_02: aggressive with the gerrymander, split Lynchburg.
51:49
SPEAKER_02: So you can put that district somewhere,
51:52
the,
51:52
SPEAKER_02: the Liberty precinct in a different district,
51:54
SPEAKER_02: but they left it in there.
51:55
SPEAKER_02: So it is,
51:56
SPEAKER_02: it is a Liberty University is also,
51:58
SPEAKER_02: uh,
51:59
in,
51:59
SPEAKER_02: in the new sixth,
52:00
SPEAKER_02: uh,
52:01
SPEAKER_02: if it does come to pass.
52:02
So,
52:02
uh,
52:02
SPEAKER_01: we asked about this in the poll to where,
52:05
you know,
52:05
SPEAKER_01: we talked about,
52:06
SPEAKER_01: uh,
52:07
SPEAKER_01: like Virginia tech,
52:08
UVA,
52:08
SPEAKER_01: JMU, Liberty.
52:11
SPEAKER_01: Those are the colleges we listed are all in the same district.
52:13
SPEAKER_01: It's going to be the youngest congressional district in the country.
52:16
SPEAKER_01: Does this make you more or less likely to vote for the amendment?
52:22
SPEAKER_01: And a plurality said, no.
52:24
SPEAKER_01: Well...
52:25
OK,
52:26
a plurality said no,
52:27
but there are lies and damn lies to the statistics.
52:29
SPEAKER_01: Right.
52:31
SPEAKER_01: So this is a thing where you go to the cross tabs.
52:34
SPEAKER_01: And when I say plurality,
52:36
I mean,
52:36
SPEAKER_01: like what,
52:37
maybe 20,
52:37
SPEAKER_01: 30 some percent of likely voters beating it,
52:42
SPEAKER_01: beating people who say they're more likely by like,
52:44
SPEAKER_01: you know,
52:45
seven,
52:45
SPEAKER_01: eight points or something like that,
52:47
SPEAKER_01: who have like the teens or the 20s.
52:48
SPEAKER_01: We would talk about vote support or more more likely support.
52:52
SPEAKER_01: Well,
52:53
SPEAKER_01: it's like 90% or like higher,
52:56
maybe it's north of 95% on all these questions when we ask what
52:59
makes you more
53:00
SPEAKER_01: likely to vote yes or no,
53:01
SPEAKER_01: right?
53:02
SPEAKER_01: We did this, we asked voters, I'll just pull up our survey here.
53:10
SPEAKER_01: Let's see.
53:12
Several Republican controlled states have completed or proposed
53:15
redistricting for
53:16
SPEAKER_01: the upcoming midterms.
53:17
SPEAKER_01: The proposed congressional amount for Virginia may help offset Republican
53:20
SPEAKER_01: gerrymandering in these states.
53:22
SPEAKER_01: Knowing this,
53:23
SPEAKER_01: are you more or less likely to vote for the amendment slash,
53:25
SPEAKER_01: you know,
53:26
if they already voted,
53:26
SPEAKER_01: do you regret your vote,
53:27
SPEAKER_01: not regret your vote?
53:29
And then we also,
53:30
which is,
53:30
you know,
53:30
that's like the main argument for the yes campaign,
53:32
right?
53:33
SPEAKER_01: Off level, level the playing field, as they call it.
53:36
SPEAKER_01: The main argument for the yes campaign is,
53:39
you know,
53:39
SPEAKER_01: they talk about 10 to 1,
53:40
SPEAKER_01: but what is disingenuous is that they talk about,
53:43
SPEAKER_01: well,
53:44
SPEAKER_01: it's only 6 to 5 right now.
53:45
SPEAKER_01: Well...
53:46
you are leaving out the fact of what the midterm environment is
53:48
going to look like.
53:49
SPEAKER_01: And actually this November,
53:50
SPEAKER_01: uh,
53:51
SPEAKER_01: Republicans,
53:53
uh,
53:53
SPEAKER_01: would have three or four,
53:56
uh,
53:56
SPEAKER_01: congressional seats.
53:58
Um, almost.
53:58
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
53:59
SPEAKER_02: Democrats have a,
54:00
SPEAKER_02: have a,
54:01
if,
54:01
SPEAKER_02: if no does manage to win,
54:03
SPEAKER_02: uh,
54:04
SPEAKER_02: and they continue to use the current map,
54:05
SPEAKER_02: I mean,
54:06
Democrats will have a decent shot of winning the second and the
54:09
first district and
54:10
SPEAKER_02: getting to eight.
54:11
SPEAKER_02: And they're currently at six.
54:12
Right.
54:12
So we put the Republicans probably get three to four because
54:15
regardless of the map,
54:16
SPEAKER_01: Elaine Luria is going to Congress under this proposed.
54:21
SPEAKER_01: So under the current congressional map,
54:23
SPEAKER_01: Virginia is expected to elect seven to eight Democrats and three to four
54:27
SPEAKER_01: Republicans this year under the proposed congressional map.
54:31
And this is actually after we showed what the current and
54:33
proposed map looked like,
54:35
SPEAKER_01: which was also,
54:37
SPEAKER_01: you know,
54:38
like I said,
54:38
SPEAKER_01: everyone's just
54:39
Um,
54:40
if they're saying they're more likely to vote yes,
54:41
but like 95% are already voting yes.
54:43
SPEAKER_01: And vice versa.
54:44
SPEAKER_01: Um,
54:45
SPEAKER_01: uh,
54:46
under the proposed congressional map attached to the
54:48
constitutional amendment,
54:49
Virginia would be expected to elect 10 Democrats and one
54:52
Republican this year.
54:53
SPEAKER_01: Knowing this, are you more or less likely to vote for the amendment?
54:56
Right.
54:56
SPEAKER_01: Um,
54:57
SPEAKER_01: so,
54:58
uh,
54:58
SPEAKER_01: that's,
54:59
that's sort of the thing is both like both of the arguments are
55:03
kind of canceling
55:04
SPEAKER_01: each other out a little bit,
55:06
SPEAKER_01: really.
55:07
SPEAKER_01: It's not really doing much on sort of persuasion.
55:10
SPEAKER_01: This is very much a base turnout election.
55:12
SPEAKER_01: Now, when we talk about persuasion, though, yeah, absolutely.
55:15
SPEAKER_01: No campaign is absolutely murdering the yes campaign with persuasion.
55:19
When we talk about those true actual independents who swing
55:24
very back and forth
55:25
SPEAKER_01: between Virginia elections,
55:27
right?
55:27
SPEAKER_01: This 33-point swing in five months from the attorney general race.
55:32
SPEAKER_01: Um,
55:33
but you know,
55:33
SPEAKER_01: their question,
55:34
SPEAKER_01: the question is like,
55:35
SPEAKER_01: how much,
55:36
you know,
55:36
like,
55:36
SPEAKER_01: are they going to make up 9% of the electorate?
55:38
Like we expect based on Gallup early party ID and all previous
55:42
Virginia elections,
55:43
SPEAKER_01: or are they going to be like somewhere in the low,
55:46
you know,
55:46
SPEAKER_01: um,
55:47
uh,
55:47
maybe,
55:47
SPEAKER_01: maybe 13% or 11% and 12%,
55:49
SPEAKER_01: something like that,
55:50
SPEAKER_01: something like that.
55:51
SPEAKER_01: And it's like, yeah, no campaign is a very good chance here.
55:53
I think I think the challenge for the no campaign with with
55:57
that in mind is that it
55:58
SPEAKER_02: is an April special election and that the danger is that,
56:01
yes,
56:01
SPEAKER_02: we have all this.
56:02
SPEAKER_02: We have I mean,
56:03
SPEAKER_02: your your your interactive shows,
56:05
SPEAKER_02: you know,
56:06
most of the counties or a lot of the counties in the state are
56:09
running ahead in
56:10
SPEAKER_02: their terms of their early vote.
56:12
SPEAKER_02: even from 2025,
56:13
which is remarkable that you would have even that many running
56:17
close to or even
56:18
SPEAKER_02: above it.
56:20
SPEAKER_02: But the problem is,
56:21
will the election day turn out be lower because the more
56:23
marginal voters who would
56:25
SPEAKER_02: show up for a gubernatorial race may not show up for this one.
56:29
And those marginal voters might be more likely to be those true
56:32
independent types
56:34
SPEAKER_02: who are like,
56:35
SPEAKER_02: this seems egregious.
56:37
SPEAKER_01: I think it's like 5% of our
56:41
respondents say they didn't vote in 2025 um interesting and you
56:47
know uh the
56:49
crosstabs are kind of mixed on them i mean first off it's a
56:52
small sample yeah very
56:54
small samples or it's very hard to read um so again all all
57:00
comes down to turnout
57:01
SPEAKER_01: um you know but what i will say is i think that the people who um
57:06
SPEAKER_01: didn't vote in 2025,
57:08
SPEAKER_01: but maybe did vote in 2024 through,
57:11
SPEAKER_01: you know,
57:12
SPEAKER_01: going backwards to 2021,
57:13
are going to skew more independent and conservative and
57:16
Republican and more
57:18
SPEAKER_01: ideologically moderate and conservative.
57:21
SPEAKER_01: Right.
57:22
Because,
57:22
again,
57:22
Virginia election electorates change based on who the president
57:25
is.
57:26
SPEAKER_01: And so this is the thing like the higher propensity voters.
57:30
Right.
57:30
SPEAKER_01: We talk about out of the last five elections,
57:32
SPEAKER_01: meaning 2021 through 2025,
57:33
SPEAKER_01: because we have an election every year in Virginia.
57:36
SPEAKER_01: How many of these did you vote in?
57:38
SPEAKER_01: right, using the voter file from I-360.
57:41
SPEAKER_01: Well, higher propensity voters actually are leaning more no.
57:45
SPEAKER_01: But why is that?
57:46
SPEAKER_01: Well, the Dem base didn't really show up when Biden was president, right?
57:50
SPEAKER_01: They weren't pissed off enough to show up.
57:52
SPEAKER_01: A lot of these voters came out in 2025.
57:55
SPEAKER_01: So that's sort of the thing.
57:56
SPEAKER_01: When we talk about
57:57
Well,
57:57
SPEAKER_01: you know,
57:58
SPEAKER_01: it's a special election,
57:59
SPEAKER_01: it's April,
58:00
SPEAKER_01: and they're winning the higher propensity voters.
58:04
SPEAKER_01: You know, that should mean that no is, why are they not winning?
58:08
SPEAKER_01: Well, because, you know, I mean, you would really have...
58:12
have to do like a thing of like well how many did you vote in
58:15
the last 10 years if
58:16
we want to be more accurate on on propensity when we talk about
58:20
how Virginia
58:21
elections go right uh how many elections have you voted in in
58:24
2016 um you know i
58:26
mean we we could have done that but i think really last five is
58:29
is better but
58:30
that's kind of one thing i want to put in context when we talk
58:32
about that crosstab
58:35
Yeah.
58:35
SPEAKER_02: So Chaz,
58:36
we've,
58:36
SPEAKER_02: we've,
58:37
we've run over a lot of things here and I don't want to take
58:39
too much more of your
58:40
SPEAKER_02: time.
58:41
Um,
58:41
SPEAKER_02: but I thought I,
58:42
you know,
58:42
it'd be,
58:42
SPEAKER_02: it'd be really good if you wanted to,
58:45
you know,
58:45
I figured you'd want to talk a little bit about what State
58:48
Navigate is doing more
58:49
SPEAKER_02: broadly.
58:50
Um,
58:50
SPEAKER_02: cause as much as we've spent your time about Virginia,
58:52
SPEAKER_02: Virginia is the news at the moment,
58:53
SPEAKER_02: but,
58:54
but you are,
58:54
SPEAKER_02: you're doing stuff in other places too.
58:56
SPEAKER_02: And I know you have Virginia is right next door.
58:59
Yeah.
58:59
SPEAKER_01: We do a lot of work there right now.
59:02
SPEAKER_01: Um,
59:03
SPEAKER_01: But yeah, so first of all, thank you for having me on.
59:06
I think this was,
59:07
you know,
59:08
this first podcast I'm recording right after the poll came out.
59:11
SPEAKER_01: So, you know, this is the most informed kind of conversation.
59:17
SPEAKER_01: And you're from Virginia, I'm from Virginia.
59:19
SPEAKER_01: So,
59:20
you know,
59:20
we know a lot and I think we've done a good job at explaining
59:23
like some of this
59:24
SPEAKER_01: stuff in context to kind of a broader audience.
59:27
But yeah,
59:27
SPEAKER_01: so State Navigate,
59:29
you know,
59:29
SPEAKER_01: while I love Virginia,
59:30
SPEAKER_01: live here,
59:31
SPEAKER_01: live in Richmond,
59:32
SPEAKER_01: and,
59:33
you know,
59:33
SPEAKER_01: and have a good track record predicting Virginia elections,
59:38
SPEAKER_01: my forte is state legislatures.
59:41
SPEAKER_01: State Navigate focuses on state government.
59:43
SPEAKER_01: We're a nonpartisan nonprofit.
59:45
SPEAKER_01: And we have a whole bunch of stuff that we do,
59:48
SPEAKER_01: you know,
59:49
SPEAKER_01: where we have news,
59:51
SPEAKER_01: we have data,
59:52
SPEAKER_01: all sorts of stuff.
59:54
SPEAKER_01: So, you know, we just launched subscriptions.
59:56
SPEAKER_01: We have some free stuff as well.
59:57
You can look up your district and look at some information on
1:00:00
your district by
1:00:01
SPEAKER_01: putting in your address.
1:00:03
SPEAKER_01: So you can go to statenavigate.org.
1:00:04
SPEAKER_01: We're open up in eight states right now.
1:00:06
SPEAKER_01: And eventually, you know, at some point, we hope to get to all 50 states.
1:00:12
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, no, it's awesome.
1:00:14
And,
1:00:14
you know,
1:00:15
it's worth knowing,
1:00:15
Chaz,
1:00:16
has been doing stuff on state legislatures for a while.
1:00:19
SPEAKER_02: You had seen analysis for a while.
1:00:21
SPEAKER_02: And so it's cool to see sort of this next step.
1:00:27
I've been doing it since I was a senior in high school,
1:00:31
and I'm about to be pushing 30.
1:00:32
SPEAKER_01: I'm 27 next month.
1:00:33
SPEAKER_01: So there you go.
1:00:34
SPEAKER_01: Well, now you're making me feel it.
1:00:36
SPEAKER_01: It'll be nine years this August that I've been...
1:00:38
SPEAKER_01: Which is crazy for you.
1:00:41
SPEAKER_02: No.
1:00:42
SPEAKER_02: Well, Chaz, obviously, thanks for coming on.
1:00:45
SPEAKER_02: Again, this is Chaz Nuttycombe, the executive director at State Navigate.
1:00:50
SPEAKER_02: They just released a poll on the redistricting referendum.
1:00:53
SPEAKER_02: There's a lot of interesting tidbits.
1:00:54
SPEAKER_02: You should check out the write-up.
1:00:56
They did a lot of
1:00:56
SPEAKER_02: interesting messaging testing, just sort of see people's responses.
1:01:01
SPEAKER_02: There was way too much to go into for a podcast.
1:01:05
And then they do have the great interactives for the turnout
1:01:09
and sort of what
1:01:11
counties are running ahead of their 2025 marks and which ones
1:01:14
are running behind
1:01:15
SPEAKER_02: and what the partisan breakdown is.
1:01:17
SPEAKER_02: Lots of fascinating stuff to click through.
1:01:19
SPEAKER_02: So I highly recommend people go check it out.
1:01:23
And I'm Geoffrey Skelley,
1:01:25
the chief elections analyst here at Decision Desk HQ.
1:01:30
We will,
1:01:32
TBD,
1:01:33
but we may be doing a live stream for the April 21st election.
1:01:37
SPEAKER_02: So keep an eye out for that.
1:01:40
SPEAKER_02: And, you know,
1:01:41
SPEAKER_02: Please, I also should thank Stephen Stover, who's our producer.
1:01:46
SPEAKER_02: And be on the lookout for our next podcast.
1:01:49
SPEAKER_02: We're about to hit the actual primary season in early May.
1:01:53
I mean,
1:01:53
we've already had a handful,
1:01:55
places like Texas and North Carolina,
1:01:57
Illinois.
1:01:59
SPEAKER_02: We're going to really start in earnest in May.
1:02:01
SPEAKER_02: And so there'll be lots and lots of elections to talk about.
1:02:05
And we'll be starting to talk more about some of the November
1:02:07
general elections as
1:02:09
SPEAKER_02: things start to really ramp up.
1:02:10
SPEAKER_02: So again, Chaz, thanks again for coming on.
1:02:12
SPEAKER_02: Thanks for having me.
1:02:15
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, everybody take care.