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STOP Shorting This Market This Is Why 90% of Traders Are Getting Cooked?-MP3 · Earn Your Leisure

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Pushing to highs. Yeah.
• 0:02
  Speaker 2: People are getting squeezed out of those positions.
• 0:03
  Speaker 3: NASDAQ hit an all-time high today. S & P is
• 0:07
  Speaker 3: not far from it. Dow is not far from it.
• 0:10
  Speaker 3: If you're just looking at trajectory, I mean, you would know.
• 0:13
  Speaker 3: But that's something that people don't, you know, they see
• 0:15
  Speaker 3: it like, hey, it's hit an all-time high. It has
• 0:18
  Speaker 3: to pull back at some point. And yeah, eventually it will.
• 0:20
  Speaker 3: But look at the trend line before you make that decision.
• 0:23
  Speaker 3: Look at how much money is just pouring in from 401ks. Like,
• 0:28
  Speaker 3: in order to short NASDAQ and the Dow and ES, Nikkei, Kospi,
• 0:33
  Speaker 3: you're telling me that the trillions of dollars that are
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: being pumped in, the 401ks and money market funds, you're
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: trading the direction wrong.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Go with the predominant direction. Look at the month chart first.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Tell them the company, why don't you do that? Stay tuned.
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: I didn't like it either. I didn't like the company either.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah.
• 0:58
  Speaker 4: But I will say this, though. It is good to
• 1:00
  Speaker 4: have multiple different, because I spoke to Troy about this
• 1:02
  Speaker 4: as well, especially with the options. You got to have
• 1:08
  Speaker 4: multiple things working for you at the same time. If
• 1:09
  Speaker 4: you put all your eggs in one basket and that
• 1:12
  Speaker 4: goes south, which any option trade can go south, then
• 1:16
  Speaker 4: you're screwed.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: You can get a better basket.
• 1:20
  Speaker 4: That's what I'm saying. You got to have multiple. But
• 1:22
  Speaker 4: you got to have multiple options working for you, though.
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: What are you saying? Like multiple positions?
• 1:26
  Speaker 4: Multiple calls.
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: Can I just add a caveat? Because I agree with you.
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: In the same company or not in the same company?
• 1:33
  Speaker 4: Not in the same company. Now, everybody's budget doesn't afford
• 1:37
  Speaker 4: them to do that. I understand that. But, I'm just saying,
• 1:43
  Speaker 4: you give yourself a greater chance of winning the more positions.
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: That doesn't mean you have to have a million positions.
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: But if you just put it, alright, if you have
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: $ 50, 000 and you're you saying, okay, if I can get
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: a green jacket and I'm going to put.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: $ 50, 000 on one option call.
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: No stop loss.
• 2:05
  Speaker 4: With the anticipation that that 50,000 is going to turn
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: into 500,000. That's, that to me.
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: That's dangerous. Is ill-advised.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Yes. Especially if you don't have incredible acumen. Like we
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: can even talk about this one. Like the, the five
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: serve call. He's like, Hey, I got in, in the
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: stock 169. Um, you think my January calls are cooked?
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: I'm like, the company's cooked. Like, to your point, if
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: he would have did Google, Microsoft, Micron, and spread the
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: risk out, he wouldn't have had as much. Because we
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: all have met people when they approach you and ask
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: about the portfolio, you can feel the fear that's coming
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: out of their energy, right? You have to reverse it.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Same with 2Tech, 2Index, and same with futures. That's why
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: I say trade ES, NASDAQ, Dow, and the bond market. Well, because.
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: also what happens is when you have a company, a
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: trade that goes well, you said, I should have put
• 3:02
  Speaker 4: more money in. So then the next time around you
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: up your limit. It's like being at the table in Vegas.
• 3:10
  Speaker 4: So now you was playing at the 5,000 or 10,000 table.
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: Now you play it at the 20,000 table. And so
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: you up your limit on the amount of money that
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: you start putting in. And you got to be careful
• 3:22
  Speaker 4: with that too, because now your strategy has changed. And,
• 3:26
  Speaker 4: you're going in with the anticipation that I learned my
• 3:29
  Speaker 4: lesson last time because I made 500%, but I only
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: put $ 5, 000 in. This time I'm going to put $ 15, 000 in.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: And then when you put.
• 3:39
  Speaker 4: The $ 15, 000 in, you down 79% in two weeks. So
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: you got to be disciplined with that too, because once
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: you start to say, okay, now I'm going to put
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: larger sums of money in because of that, it doesn't
• 3:53
  Speaker 4: always work out in your favor.
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's why you got to be super strategic. So
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: based on that, it's like it starts with the one, right?
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: So let's just take Micron when we did this in 2024.
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: It started with one contract. Most people didn't even believe
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: in that contract. And it was like, okay, we pulled back.
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: We started at 110. First call was at 110.
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: Dropped down to 83.
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: We were down 60%. I said, we're not moving. In fact,
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: as it creeps back up, we're going to let it
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: pass the threshold. If that 110 call now goes up 50%,
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: I think we're going to have a nice run, right?
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: So then you add to that.
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: So like when I'm talking about when I stack them and.
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: Sometimes you'll see like these these posts in my story,
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: it'll be like, how do you get all these calls? Well,
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: it started hitting thresholds and I'm watching the trend.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: So it clears 200.
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: Now we're looking for 215. Oh, and it just keeps
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: going up to the point now where, you know, we
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: were at 1100 in June. We were at 1200. But
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: people are looking at this. Anyway, he's in a 230 call. Well,
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: we got the 230 call when it was sitting at 170.
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: You feel me? So you.
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: That's why I wanted to make it a distinguish between
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: are you doing it in the same company or are
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: you doing it in a multiple?
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: So first get the foundation.
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: I always stress to people, foundation, foundation, foundation, whether that's
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: in ETFs or whether that's in indexes. And then have
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: some individual equities inside that foundation. Then you can maybe
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: get to derivatives, right? But you don't want to skip steps.
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: If you got 50,000, if that's your only 50,000, that's ill...
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: I mean, obviously, that's really ill-advised. But if you start
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: to see an uptrend, like we saw... in the memory space,
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: like we saw in the compute space, like we've now
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: seen in energy, like we're seeing in a lot of
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: the infrastructure, then there's an opportunity to say, okay, well,
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: we've made it 500%. Can we now get another call
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: to add to that? So we're just adding to the ladder.
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: And really, that's how we get our stacks. And it's
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: a really great lesson that you brought up. You kind
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: of skimmed over it, but to add to your winners
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: and not your losers, like, because you're really essentially buying momentum,
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: like same with NVIDIA, around that 212 mark. When everyone's saying, oh,
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: I don't know if NVIDIA is going to give any
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: more higher returns now sitting at the high 240. Add
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: to your winners and stop trying to add to your
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: losers to bring down your negative cost basis. If a
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: lot more traders did that, you would be, especially in
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: the futures market, you would be better off.
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: You know, I had a guy try to convert me
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: on Saturday afternoon. He said, yo, I'm in Red Pan, Detroit.
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: I love the way you research, man. yo, you could
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: really do futures. I say, yo, that's not my discipline, bro.
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: I say, Ian, the best in the game. Let him
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: do that.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: It's the same. People ask me all the time, why
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: don't you do the options? I'm like, once you master something,
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: you can give up a lot of your edge and
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: your primary thing going to another asset, even though the
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: charts are the same and the risk is the same.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Sometimes the best thing to do is just stay dominant
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: at the thing you're best at. Kudos to you, Hugo,
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: who can do both, but very few people do both well.
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: Stay tuned. Who knows?
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: What do you feel about adding water technology companies to
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: a portfolio?
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: I know. That's stupid. I'm going to be honest. No.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: I brought up CGW. I brought up the stock in 2020.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: I know a lot of people have talked about it
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: and remixed it since then. I appreciate the question, but
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: I think sometimes we end up searching for down the
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: rabbit hole so much for the new thing that we
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: end up missing on the sector that matters. I'm going
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: to be very honest. The only thing that matters right
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: now is tech. Everything that's doing well is the tech
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: or tech derivative. There's no reason to even add this
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: to look at this at a portfolio at all.
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: I try to give the benefit of the doubt here
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: and just say, okay, well, where's this question? Where's the
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: origin of it? Where did you derive or get to
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: that point? And I started thinking this, and maybe this
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: is the thought process. people keep hearing that number one,
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: clean water is important. You know, there's a lack thereof
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: water is going to be, I mean, it is a
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: natural resource, but they keep hearing data centers and the
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: amount of water that's being used. And so maybe people
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: were thinking, Hey, maybe I should find companies that are
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: building infrastructure to make sure that we have and house
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: water in the event that there is a shortage because
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: of the build out of AI.
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: That, I'm not sure that's what they were thinking, but
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: that's what I'm like.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: Maybe that was a thought, but like it's the wrong sector.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: If we're going to be honest, it's the wrong, even
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: when people like, okay, well, AI is destroying water infrastructure
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: and they've switched from that. A lot of that stuff
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: is propaganda. The ticker he's talking about is XLY. The
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: high last year was 154.27. It's currently at 102.00. You
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: got to look at the mode, the profit margin. And
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: once again, I shouldn't be able to name 55 companies
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: off the top of my head that are dramatically better.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: I don't even think they're the best in the category.
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: So no. Yeah, I haven't diversified to that point. I
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: don't have anything in that.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Over-diversification is a mistake too. Yeah.
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: It's tech. It's tech for me, for sure. I think
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: you're 100% spot on. It's tech. It's going to be tech.
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: Well, you can have tech and water and they can
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: go hand in hand.
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: And that's why I'm trying to add the tech component.
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: Maybe they're thinking from the AI infrastructure. I'm thinking the
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: AI infrastructure is going to be the leader and the
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: catalyst for the next five, ten years.
• 9:24
  Speaker 4: There's so many different things that tech comes in play
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: when it comes to water. If you really think about it,
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: that's actually the first water. The first type of tech
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: is water. When irrigation systems came, that was ancient Egypt.
• 9:35
  Speaker 4: That's actually a form of technology. As far as turning
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: um salt water into drinkable water um israel has they
• 9:43
  Speaker 4: have tank they have whole factories where they're doing this
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: for a long time and that's a form of technology
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: for sure you talk about data centers you talk about
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: water purification so that the natural resources and technology do
• 9:57
  Speaker 4: go hand in hand especially when it comes to water
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: because this water is is.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Such a big deal right now.
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: Is it an investment?
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: Well, that's a totally different conversation.
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: But it is.
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: The tech, I think tech and water, they definitely go
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: hand in hand. Even the purification of water is tech.
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: That's what I'm saying. I think you're saying the same thing, right?
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: And we've said this over and over repeatedly on this
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: show for sure, that if your business doesn't have a
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: tech component, then do you have a business?
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: So I think that has to be aligned.
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: In fact, it's going to be if it doesn't have
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: an AI component in it, are you going to have
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: a true growth company?
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: Well, that's the thing I think we really got to
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: focus on is subsectors of tech. Because at some point
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: saying tech is not even going to be relevant because
• 10:44
  Speaker 4: everything is a tech company. So now we got to say, okay,
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: what's the subsector of tech? Whether it's chips, whether it's security, like, because.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: We're going to get to a point where we've done it.
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: No, no, no. But I'm just saying when people say
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: I invest in tech, well, everything is going to be tech.
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: Everything is almost tech now. And then the Nike is
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: in tech. Almost.
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: Almost. Now they try. Did you see that on the
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: worst investments of all time?
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: Stupid. What's going to verify the legitimacy of the shoe? What?
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Is that the best idea? Before this collapse happened, shout
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: out to everybody in Oregon. There were signs of idiocracy
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: coming out in those ideas that they weren't going to
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: land well. So I get it. But even in the
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: tech sectors, there's hierarchy in information tech that matters. And
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: some of them, it's like the companies who say they're
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: AI adjacent and they're not. It's like they're trying to
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: gamify the gains. And my bigger point, I don't want
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: people to overthink what to invest in. And like, if
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: we take this ticker XOI off the top of my head,
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: I could just go through banking and FinTech and pick
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: a bunch of better companies. So the answer for this
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: is no.