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The Dark Horses With #1 Overall Upside at Every Position · Upper Hand Fantasy

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Every single year, a guy nobody's talking about ends up being the overall QB1, RB1, wide receiver one, or tight end one.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: That's what we're doing today.
• 0:08
  SPEAKER_00: Five dark horse candidates at every position to be the number one overall guy this year.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: And I've hit on some of these guys before.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: Last year, Drake May, Chase Brown, George Pickens, Tucker Kraft before he got hurt, all dark horses at the time.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: And all of them finished near the top of their position in fantasy points per game.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_00: Some of these names are gonna feel obvious, some of them you're gonna think I'm insane, but stick around.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: Let's start under center with Trevor Lawrence.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: After the bye last year, he was the overall QB three in points per game.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: That was only behind Josh Allen and Brock Purdy, which is pretty wild when you say it out loud.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: Third in passing touchdowns in that stretch, second in rushing touchdowns.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: But here's the thing that actually took him from good to elite in the second half of the season.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_00: His design run rate basically doubled after the bye.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: Before the bye, he was running a 5% design run rate and he had a 5% scramble rate.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: Nothing crazy.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: After the bye, 10% design, 8% scramble.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: And that design run rate ends up fourth in the entire NFL, only behind guys like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Jackson Dart, the names that you'd expect.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: And now he's gonna have the potential of a full year of post-breakout Parker Washington, a full year with Jacoby Myers after he was traded for midseason, Brian Thomas Jr.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: obviously, and a full year with Brenton Strange, who missed a bunch of games last year.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: And not to mention whatever snaps Travis Hunter ends up getting on top of all that.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: Lawrence is set up for success.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: I think Liam Cohen's already proved at this point that he's one of the best play callers and play designers in the league.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: And now he's shown he can move multiple quarterbacks past the hump.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: If Lawrence continues to use his legs, and by the way, he was sixth in scrambles last year, first in touchdowns off of scrambles to prop up the passing game in year two of Liam Cohen's offense.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_00: I think he's gonna be in business.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: The next guy is Dak Prescott.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: And this one's gonna feel a little obvious, but stay with me anyway.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: The Cowboys ran the second fastest offense in football last year, top 10 in pass rate, which is why Dak ended up throwing it 600 times.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_00: They played like the worst defense in the league last year, bunch of negative game scripts that can very easily happen again this year.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: And you look at the weapons.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, you got CeeDee Lamb, you got George Pickens as one of the best wide receiver duos in the league, you got Jake Ferguson as a safety blanket.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: That's more than enough for anybody.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: Dak's one of the most accurate passers in the league and a pass happy, pass-friendly system.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: And he's been a top seven fantasy quarterback in each of his last three healthy seasons.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: So give me a full season of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens both healthy.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: And honestly, Dak can be the overall QB one off the passing production alone.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: Next is Caleb Williams, and this one's gonna feel early to some of you.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: It shouldn't, though.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_00: He was a QB eight in points per game last year, and that was with Romo Dunze Hurt for basically week six on.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: And that was also with Colson Loveland and Luther Burden, two real breakout candidates in their own right this year, playing part-time roles the whole year last year.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: People also sleep on him as a runner, seventh among quarterbacks in attempts, eighth in yards, three rushing scores, fifth fastest offense in the league.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: You have an elite offensive line, which let them spam play action.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_00: Williams ranks second in fantasy points per game on play action dropbacks last year.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: That is credit to Ben Johnson right there.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: And look, he's obviously still a work in progress.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: Caleb is, he's not a perfect quarterback by any means.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: He doesn't play within structure as much as you'd like, but the hope is we see further development from him in year two of Ben Johnson's offense.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: Now you give him a cleaner and healthier set of weapons from day one.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: I think QB1 is genuinely within reach if it breaks right for him.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: Next up is Justin Herbert, man.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: With Joe Alt healthy last year, Herbert was averaging 22 points a game.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: That's overall QB1 pace.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: And without him, he dropped down to 14 points per game.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: Rashawn Slater also missed the entire year as well.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: And between those two guys being out, the Chargers allowed 60 sacks.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: 60.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: And even with all that chaos up front, Herbert was still second in rushing yards among quarterbacks behind only Josh Allen.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: 7% design rush rate.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: On top of that, an 8% scramble rate, which is pretty good, you know, for a guy who nobody thinks of as a runner.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: 10% of his dropbacks inside the five-yard line, he was keeping it himself.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: That's higher than Caleb Williams, higher than Josh Allen.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_00: And here's the part people forget about Mike McDaniel.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_00: His offense is ranked top 12 in passing production in three of his four years as a head coach in Miami.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: And that was with Tua.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: So now you put a healthy offensive line in front of Herbert, hand him a play caller with that type of track record.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's genuinely what pushes him over the edge into real overall QB1 upside.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: And the last one, Brock Purdy.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: Most people still see him as a total dark horse here, but hear me out, man.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: It becomes a little obvious as I talk about it.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: He only played eight games last year.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: And the only quarterback who put up more fantasy points per game and per dropback than him last year was Josh Allen.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: He was the only quarterback in the league to throw 20 plus touchdowns in fewer than 13 starts.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: He did it in nine games.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_00: And that was with George Kittle and Ricky Pearsall both missing six plus games.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: Pearsall was dealing with that PCL injury all year.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_00: So he was doing this with Kendrick Bourne and Juwan Jennings as his top guys.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: And he was still the second most productive fantasy quarterback in the league on a per game basis.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: Now he gets Kittle back, Pearsall back, Mike Evans walks in as his brand new ex receiver, and CMC is basically playing receiver at this point, too, right?
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: So Purdy was elite with almost nothing around him last year.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: You call him a dark horse if you want, but I think he's got legitimate top three quarterback upside this year and possibly overall QB1.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: Let's move to the backfield now.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: Let's start with Omari and Hampton.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: In games where he played at least 50% of the snaps, he was averaging 16.2 fantasy points per game, 55% route participation.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: By the way, that's great.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: 4.4 targets a game.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: That's great.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: That would have ranked fifth and seventh among all running backs last year.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: People don't talk about that enough.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: And once he actually got healthy at the end of the year, it was a completely different workload.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: 77% snapshare, 70% of the carries, 62% route participation, every single goal line carry, 100% of the two-minute snaps, 20 touches a game once he got acclimated before he got hurt in weeks three through five, 18 touches a game once he came back in weeks 14 through 17.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the risk here isn't really the talent, it's the price, it's whether McDaniel actually uses him as a true workhorse.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: We don't know that for sure just yet.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: They did add Keaton Mitchell, who's an explosive back, who can absolutely thrive in outside zone.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: But Hanton's already shown, even as a rookie, that he's really good in outside zone himself.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: So at least his rookie year gives us real evidence that he can handle that kind of workload in this league.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: 20 plus opportunities, goal line work, receiving work on a good offense.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, that's kind of the recipe if he gets the volume, especially in this Mike McDaniel offense.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: Real quick, since we're on running backs, this is actually a good spot to bring up the framework I used to evaluate.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: These guys, I call it proof pass catching, red zone, or goal line role, offense quality, volume, and efficiency.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: You hit four out of five of those, and you're looking at a legitimate top five fantasy back.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: Hampton's already checking basically every box, which is why he's on this list.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_00: So I actually built out a tool with basically every relevant running back this year, checked off against all five of those categories.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_00: So if you want that, find me on Instagram at UpriHandFantasy, DM me the word prove, and I'll send it over for free.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: Now I know I've kind of been kicking a dead horse at this point, but here we go again.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: Kenneth Walker.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_00: In the playoffs without Zach Sharpy on the field, he was on a 25 touch, 25 point per game pace.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: That's overall RB1 territory.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_00: And now he's stepping into a true workhorse role for the first time in his entire career.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: I'd expect around maybe 70% of snaps, maybe 65%, but like about 80% of the carries.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_00: Almost all the goal line work, almost all the early down work, some third down mixed into, but it'd probably be Amari Demarcado.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_00: But his 33% target rate in the playoffs, that's a small sample, obviously, but it's a real signal on what he can do catching the football.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: And we had some of that the year before as well.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_00: Now, for context, that 33% targets per route run, you compare that to Christian McCaffrey, Devon Hand, guys like that.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: They were at 26 and 27 last year.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_00: So that's pretty meaningful.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_00: Now, he only had just a 37% route participation in Seattle.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_00: I think that number could jump up to 50%, maybe close to 60% as the workhorse in Kansas City.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: And this is mostly on early downs, right?
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_00: Like on early downs, he's gonna be running a lot of routes, even if he's not the third down back.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: He's gonna be targeted on those early downs as well.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_00: You look at the target earning ability on top of a guy who's already elite on the ground on 20 plus touches, potentially locked in here.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: That's a massive combination.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_00: And people forget Andy Reid has actually had a lot of success with running backs just like Kenneth Walker.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_00: We just haven't seen Andy Reed with a real talent like Walker in this backfield in a while.
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_00: And historically, running backs who got paid the way Walker got paid go on to ball out in year one with their new team.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_00: So proceed accordingly for who could be potentially the overall RB1 this year.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: The next guy is Chase Brown.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_00: All Brown ever needed was a competent quarterback running things.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_00: Once Flacco took over at quarterback and the offense stopped being unwatchable, Brown was actually a really good fantasy asset.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_00: He didn't finish outside the top 15 one single week in the second half of the season, starting in week nine.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_00: And in that stretch, he was the RB5 in points per game at 20.7, only behind Jameer Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, Devon Hen, and B.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_00: John Robinson.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_00: His 6.2 targets per game was second in the league only behind Jameer Gibbs.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_00: He was fifth in missed tackles force per reception as well.
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_00: People don't realize that Joe Burrow was first in check down rate last year, and Brown was fourth among all running backs in total targets for the year with 87, 11 touchdowns in back-to-back years.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_00: And last year, that was without Burrow for half of the year.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_00: He hit 300 plus touches for the first time in his career, and that matters because every overall RB1 since the year 2000, except one, has hit that benchmark.
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_00: And here's the real kicker.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: By the way, that was Alvin Kamara.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_00: But from weeks 13 through 18, once Burrow was back, Chase Brown was the third most productive fantasy running back in standard leagues, not BPR.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: And in PPR, RB2, only behind Bijan.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_00: So he's gonna have the volume, he's gonna bring the efficiency, he's gonna have a real role in the passing game, and hopefully a healthy Joe Burrow all year.
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_00: Let's pray for that.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_00: I think Chase Brown's got a real case to be the overall RB1 this year.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_00: One more before we move on to wide receivers, and that's Cam Scataboo.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if you look at all the running backs last year who had more than 100 carries, he's fourth in yards after contact, fourth in missed tackles force per attempt.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_00: And among running backs with 100 plus routes, he's 10th in targets per game, seventh in yards per route run, second in first downs per route run.
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_00: That was only behind Christian McCaffrey.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_00: And all that came on just 40% route participation.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the reason he's an honorable mention here, I would say, and not higher on this list, is because of the injury.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_00: He went down with an open tibia fracture, dislocated ankle, ruptured ligament.
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_00: That's a brutal combination, similar type of injury that has taken a step away from guys in the past.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: So there's some risk here that he's not himself fully, you know, right out of the gate.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_00: But the recent news is encouraging.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: It looks like he'll be ready to go for training camp if he does get back to full speed.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_00: Remember the tape from before the injury, like he's got the three down skill set.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_00: He could be in every down back.
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, Tyrone Tracy can be involved, especially on passing downs and early in the season.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_00: But as the season moves along, if Scatterbo can get right, he could potentially be a league winner down the stretch.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_00: All right, wide receivers.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_00: Let's start with Chris Olave, a guy who already gave us a preview of this exact case down the stretch last year.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: With Tyler Shuga quarterback from weeks nine through 18 among receivers with 150 plus routes, Olave was second in the league in air yard share at 47.3%, seventh in targets per game, ninth in target share, 18 deep targets.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_00: That was first in the league.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: He was eighth in fantasy points per route run.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_00: He was the overall wide receiver three in points per game during that stretch.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_00: And yeah, I know Jordan Tyson's in the building now, but Kellen Moore's actually got a track record of running two productive fantasy receivers at the same time.
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_00: You got Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, both hit for him in Dallas.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_00: You got AJ Brown and Devontae Smith when he was in Philly.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: This isn't a new thing for him.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: And on top of that, Moore's offenses have ranked top 10 in the league basically every single year of his career when he's had a healthy quarterback.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_00: He's proven his offenses can get it done.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_00: And last year, his offense actually ran the fastest pace in the entire NFL.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: More plays means more opportunity for everybody involved.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_00: And Chris Olave was an alpha fantasy wide receiver one with a rookie quarterback in year one with a brand new play caller.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_00: So give him a full offseason and a full season with Tyler Shug.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_00: If Shug takes another step, I think Olave is in line to be the overall wide receiver one.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_00: Next up is Drake London, a guy who was banged up for a few games last year.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_00: Still didn't really miss.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_00: He was one of seven receivers in the league to average nine targets a game, which matters when you look back at the last 10 overall wide receiver once.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: 28% target share for London, sixth in the league, fourth in yards per route run, behind only Puka, Jason, and Amara St.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_00: Brown, top five and first downs per route run, too.
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_00: Those stats are just a lethal combination.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_00: He was sixth in fantasy points per route run, seventh in PPR points per game.
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_00: And honestly, it doesn't really matter who's throwing him the ball.
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_00: Two was able to sustain Tyreek Hill to back-to-back wide receiver two overall finishes.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_00: So he can clearly support an elite receiver.
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_00: And with Panics at quarterback, London was averaging 10 targets a game, second in the league, 30% target share, third in the league, 2.74 yards per route run.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_00: Insane.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_00: So whoever wins that job in Atlanta, London's gonna eat and he's gonna be in line for the wide receiver one overall, no matter what.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_00: Next up is AJ Brown, a little bit of a change of scenery for him, right?
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_00: And it's a great one.
• 12:35
  SPEAKER_00: He's had at least a 30% target share for three years running now, and he's taken that target earning ability to New England.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_00: And he's walking into an offense that just lost its clear number one target in Stefan Diggs.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_00: Not necessarily the same exact type of role, but honestly a massive upgrade, regardless.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_00: He's the alpha for the Patriots from day one.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_00: Josh McDaniels has fed his number one perimeter guy whenever he's had one with juice left in the tank.
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_00: Randy Moss, Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd, DeMonte Adams, all of them topped a thousand yards and 10 touchdowns in his offenses.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_00: And he's trading Jalen Hurts, who was middle of the pack on catchable deep balls for Drake May, who was third in the league in catchable ball rate past 20 yards.
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_00: So you had an alpha role, you had a better quarterback, a play caller who has fed this exact archetype for two decades.
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_00: I think Brown's got a legitimate case to be the overall wide receiver one this year.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_00: The last one is Ladd McConkey.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_00: And a lot of people are talking about this bounce back candidate.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think a lot of people are actually bought in though.
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_00: As a rookie, he was fifth in yards per route run among all wide receivers, seventh and first downs per route run.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_00: So that's an elite combination and it's extremely predictive of future success.
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_00: Last year was basically impossible for him to break out.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_00: Both tackles were heard.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_00: Keenan Allen was soaking up a 23% target share, and LA was running three wide receiver sets more than usual.
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_00: So you have more competition on the field.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_00: Now Mike McDaniel comes in running two wide receiver sets at a top five rate, which means it's Ladd and one other guy on the field competing for targets, not two.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_00: The O-line's healthy, Keenan Allen's gone.
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_00: We already watched McDaniel help Tua turn Tyreek Hill into a top two fantasy receiver.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_00: Now McConkey's got the best quarterback and OC pairing that he's ever had.
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_00: He's back to being the clear number one target on the Chargers.
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_00: All right, let's move on to tight ends.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_00: Then let's start with Tucker Kraft.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, he's coming off a tornado CL, but I don't think this is the Malik neighbor situation at all.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_00: He's reportedly expected to be a full go by week one without a pitch count.
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_00: And before he got hurt last year, he led all qualifying tight ends and basically every efficiency metric we care about yards per route run, first downs per route run, fantasy points per route run, all of it.
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_00: He was on pace for 15 touchdowns, and his two overall tight end one finishes through only seven weeks were tied for the most in that stretch.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_00: And now you have Romeo Dubbs who's pulling a 20% target share last year.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_00: He's gone to New England.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_00: So if Kraft can just stay healthy, I think he gets right back to that tight end one pace.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_00: Next up is Isaiah Likely, who's getting his first real shot at a full-time role in his entire career.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: And the landing spot is as good as you want to get if you want to get targets.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_00: He's the number one target in New York as long as Malik Neighbors is out, and he's still the number two target once neighbors is back.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_00: He didn't jump off the stat sheet last year in a rough quarterback situation with Lamar not being himself, but in 2024, he was top eight in yards, first downs, and fantasy points per route run.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_00: And the Giants just vacated 140 targets with Wandell Robinson leaving for Tennessee.
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_00: They added literally nobody besides likely to soak those up.
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_00: So the volume's coming no matter what.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_00: And if he gets back to the efficiency that he showed two years ago, I think he's in business.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_00: Next up is Dallas Goddard.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_00: AJ Brown's leaving behind a 30% target share in Philly.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_00: And Devontae Smith is obviously going to benefit the most from that.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_00: But Goddard gets a real bump in volume two.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_00: He also was the team's top red zone target, his 28% red zone target share last year, ranked fourth in the league, behind only Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and Hunter Henry.
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_00: And when AJ Brown's off the field over the last two years, Goddard's producing like a top two tight end points per game.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_00: And it could genuinely happen in year one without Brown on the field.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_00: I'm surprised at his price in drafts right now.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_00: Next up is Dalton Kincaid.
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_00: He led the entire NFL in per route efficiency by a mile last year.
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_00: Number one among qualifying tight ends in yards, first downs, fantasy points, and expected fantasy points per route run.
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_00: And that's while playing through a torn PCL for the season, like the same injury as limited notable guys like Brock Bowers.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: You remember that?
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_00: Ricky Pearson last year, Drake London two years ago.
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_00: But even when he's healthy, he's splitting the role with Dawson Knox, who just re-signed with the Bills as well.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_00: That's kind of the problem here.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_00: But if Dalton Kincaid ever sniffs a full-time role, I think he's right in the mix to be the overall tight end one.
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_00: I think he's a pretty good dart throw later in drafts.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_00: Last one here is Harold Fannon Jr.
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody realized how good he actually was as a rookie historically because the offense was pretty bad and he was splitting time with David Njoku most of the year.
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_00: But he was top six in nearly every utilization and efficiency metric among tight ends last year, including first in the entire league in targets per route run.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_00: And in the games without Njoku specifically, he was averaging nearly eight targets and 15 fantasy points per game, both of which would have ranked second among qualifying tight ends.
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_00: And that's in a non-ideal quarterback situation.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_00: Nojoku's gone now.
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_00: Todd Munkin's running a tight end friendly scheme.
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_00: And even with the added competition and the quarterback questions in Cleveland, I'm still a fan of Fannon to be the overall tight end one.
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_00: And real quick before you go, if you didn't catch it earlier, find me on Instagram at UpperhandFantasy, DM me the word prove, and I'll send you that running back board for free.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_00: And don't forget to subscribe, it's free.