Latest / Toadstool Sports / NHL Frozen Frenzy + NBA + MLB World Series + NCAAF Best Bets Tuesday 10/28/25

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NHL Frozen Frenzy + NBA + MLB World Series + NCAAF Best Bets Tuesday 10/28/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's what I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show. Horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Negaine have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm gonna burn my browins
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: hack Man, I don't know what is going on with
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: the Bruins. March eight? Is that what it is? I
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: don't even know it's it's March ninth. I think who
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what day is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: it did not go well for me. Own five the
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen years
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: doing this, I don't know what to even tell you
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: about this anymore. Slump, the slump, disconvenience, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I should do at this point other than potentially end
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: it off. What's up? Everybody is sewed back with the
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: better off dead Tuesday, October twenty eighth. A lot of
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: stuff going on in the realm of sports today because
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: today is the As you can see in my title,
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: today's the NHL Frozen Frenzy, which pretty much nobody talks
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: about because the NHL doesn't get any accolades. But every
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: NAHL team is in action today, So that's that's basically
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: what it is. It's like from I think six pm
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Eastern until the games end past midnight Eastern, there's hockey
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: for that entire period of time. So if you like hockey,
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Jeffrey What's Up, which Jeffrey does, then yeah, then you're
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: gonna be into into that. Jeffrey I think is gonna
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: like my hockey analysis today. Maybe I'm gonna give about
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: two plays. It's a big board. Uh, I don't love
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: the board, to be honest. There are some really competitive
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: matchups that are just like I don't know. I mean,
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: we'll talk about I'm gonna talk about most of the games.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: I don't think I'm gonna talk about all of them,
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: but I'm gonna talk about both of my plays. Obviously,
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: there are a lot of big games that I just
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: don't have a strong opinion on and I see like
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: a lot of conflicting factors there. There's some NBA today,
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: there's college football back in action. I have two NBA plays. Actually,
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: even though I think there are only five games, I
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: just can't help myself. I have one playing college football,
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: one of the games I actually really like. And then
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: there is a World Series back in action. Yes, six
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: pm Eastern is when the earliest hockey games start, which
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: are some of the more East Coast games. Yesterday we
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: went two and one on the show. I mean, the
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Celtics want in a blowout, so that Pelicans played that
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: was a bad one, and I kind of knew it,
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: Like based on what happened throughout the day, the market
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: kept shifting towards the Celtics. You could have gotten the
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Pelicans as an underdog by the time the game went off,
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: and even in the morning it was already at like
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: minus one. I'm like, all right, like maybe that's like
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: that's what I'll track it at, I guess. And then Celtics,
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: I think we're a two point favorite. When the game
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: went off, the game wasn't even close. That was a
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: bad one. The other two were both winners. Utah I
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: think made it way more difficult than it should have been.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: I mean, Utah right out of the gate, they were
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: winning the game nineteen to two, and I'm like, all right,
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be an easy win. Utah is gonna
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: win a blowout? No, oh, Utah blew that. And they
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: were I believe they were losing by halftime. Then they
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: took the lead back. They had the lead for most
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: of the game, and I'm like, all right, they're gonna
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: do it. And then it looked like they put the
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: game away, like they were up nine with like four
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: minutes after they were still winning by six in the
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: final twenty seconds of the game or something like that.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: And then all of a sudden, I look and it's
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: in overtime, Like what what is happening right now? And
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: I'd given out Utah as a plus one and a
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: half underdog. I think that line actually moved towards Utai.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: I think Utah went off like a one point favorite,
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: but luckily they did get it done. They won in
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: an overtime. I forget what the final score was, but
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: they did get the job done. I think they won
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: by three or something like that in overtime. They should
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: have won more easily, to be honest. And then we
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: had the other win was really easy. The Portland Trailblazers
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Austin Reeves did go off again for like forty points again,
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: but it was a shorthanded Laker team. The spot was
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: just really good for Portland, I thought. So that was
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: a pretty easy winner on that one, Thank you sir. Yeah,
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: that's that's that's why I recommend against parlays, because if
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: you just played straight bets, you would have had a
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: winning day yesterday with the two and one. But yeah,
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: that would have killed a parlay. The Pelicans can't get
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: them all right, man. I mean when you're trying to
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: just profit, like based on laying minus one ten on
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: these spread bets, like you have to get like fifty
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: three fifty four percent, which is not a very high
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: percentage just considering so like that's how many like parlays
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: will go down basically if you try to just parlay
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: everything all these independent results. And then of course the
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: World Series game was insane. I actually stayed up and
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: I watched the entirety of extra innings. I was watching
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: that game from I think like the sixth inning onward.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: I didn't watch the beginning of it. That was crazy, dude.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: I think it was the longest playoff game in Major
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: League Baseball history. The previous record in the Major League
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Baseball postseason for one single player was reaching base six
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: times in a game, and Otani reached base nine times
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: in the game. And he also simultaneously tied the record
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: for extra base hits by one hitter in a postseason
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: game with four because he had two doubles and two
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: home runs in the game, and he wound up with
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: whatever it was, five walks. I think they intentionally walked him. Literally,
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: every time he was up in extra innings, they gave
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: him an intentional walk, and the Dodgers still didn't score
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: again until he never scored a run in the extra innings.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: They scored on a an eighteenth thenning walk off home
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: run by Freddie Freeman, which kind of it was like
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: deja vous from last year. If you remember the World
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Series last year, Freddy Freeman had a walk off home
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: run to beat the Yankees in a game where I
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: believe I gave out a losing play on the Yankees
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: in that game in the Yankees blew the game late
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: and Freeman walked it off with a home run off
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: of I think it was off a Nestra Cortes, and
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: then the Yankees got rid of him. The lefting on
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: lefty matchup there. I believe that that brings me back.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: We were watching that game at top Lobs's house by
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: the way, when we were down there for bro Grove
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: two or whatever. It was a lot of memories, man memories,
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: more toad lore right there. I just remember, dude, I
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: definitely remember the bets that I had while I was
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: at tops house. I remember a lot of them. That
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: was all crazy, though, Yeah, I mean there was. I
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: mean there were probably other things to say about that
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: eighteen inning game too, Like we're going to talk about
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: the bullpen scenario anyway, because we have to talk about
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: the next game, which is tonight. These teams have to
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: play again tonight. Will Klein, I think it was his name,
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: was the last man out of the bullpen for the Dodgers.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: He had a career like five something era. His career
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: statistics are awful though he's only been in the league
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: since last year. I think he's like twenty five. He
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: came out and he threw four scoreless innings and extra
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: innings for the Dodgers. Just crazy, and there were chances
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: for both teams to score as well, and extra innings
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: like Toronto, I think might have had two men thrown
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: out at the plate during extra innings and then they
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: at least they definitely at least had one. And then
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers had one inning where they had a leadoff
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: double I'm pretty sure, and got that guy over to
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: third base on a bunt or something with one out
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: and they didn't score him in one of those innings.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: That was It was all pretty nuts, man. But dude,
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: this is why the ghosts runner sucks. This is the
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: baseball that you want, man, Like that was probably the
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: most watched baseball game in quite some time, because people
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: get like they get glued to the TV man when
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: it's fucking extra innings like that, nobody can go to sleep.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: I was watching and I had no stake in that
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: like I didn't have any plays on the game. I
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: don't really like either team, but I mean I really
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: don't like the Dodgers. But like I was just like,
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: I gotta watch this, got to see how this turns out.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: I don't want to like go to sleep and then
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: wake up having missed it. I felt like I could
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: have missed the ending. I don't know, it was drama.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: You had to win on the under and the MAVs
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: hell yeah, yeah, I mean the MAVs. I think they're
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: gonna continue to improve defensively, but also their offense basically
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: with no point guard is a problem. A position player
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: pitching in the World Series. That's only gonna happen if
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: there's a blowout. They're not gonna They're not gonna do
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: that in a in a game, dude, in a one
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: to one series where both teams need to win that game,
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: they're not gonna put a position player out there. Like
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: the next thing that was gonna happen is the teams
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: were gonna put in one of their starters. Like Yamamoto
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: was warming up for the Dodgers, he was gonna be
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: the next one in. And Shane Bieber was warming up
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: for Toronto and he's pitching tonight. So those were the
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: next guys that were gonna come in. They were gonna
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: use their next starters. Even though Yamamoto threw a complete
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: game in Game two, the Dodgers had him warming up.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: I was thinking, like they should just Otani was already
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: in the game. I was like, they should they should
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: just move Otani to pitch here. I'm pretty sure you
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: can do that because you can, you can swap positions
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: around between the guys that are in the game. I
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: was like, that would be insane if he's already reached
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: base eight nine times and now now now he's on
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: the mound and he's supposed to pitch today, which he is. Now,
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: it's insane, dude, this whole thing is insane. Let's get
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: into it. We're gonna talk about the NHL first. I mean,
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be the big portion of the show,
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: just because there's so many games here today and there
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: were not very many yesterday. Oh, we got Pittsburgh at Philadelphia. Actually,
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: I should let me bring up the graphic because I
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: always forget to do it. The breakdown Pittsburgh Philadelphia. I mean,
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: this is imagine where I don't really think either team
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: is gonna overlook the other necessarily because this is a big,
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: like kind of rivalry in Pennsylvania Pittsburgh. I mean, this
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: line is telling you basically all you need to know
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: that because Pittsburgh is out to a seven to two
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: to one record to start the season, Philadelphia is not
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: as good as that four to three and one, although,
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: by the way, they're four to one and zero at home,
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: so Philadelphia has been a lot better at home. Philadelphia
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: is the worst record, but Philadelphia is a favorite, up
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: from minus one forty five to minus one fifty seven.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: So I think that's telling you really most of what
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: you need to know. Like the public's I think gonna
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: look at this and think, well, how is Pittsburgh who's
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: off to this really hot start and has this really
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: good record, Like, how is Pittsburgh an underdog here? It
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: seems way too easy to take Pittsburgh here. Of course,
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: part of the reason why the line is a little
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: bit higher than it would be otherwise on Philadelphia is
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: that Pittsburgh played yesterday, so Pittsburgh's in a back to back.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia does have a rest advantage here. But even so,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: even if you did not factor that in Philadelphia would
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: still be a bigger favorite than just home ice here.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: So the oddsmakers are actually telling you Pittsburgh is not
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: as good as they look right now in the Philidelphia
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: is actually the better of these two teams, which is
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: really not not saying a good thing about Pittsburgh because
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: pittsg Philadelphia is not that good. So if the oddsmakers
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: are telling you that Pittsburgh, despite their start, is worse
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: than Philadelphia, that's crazy. That means Pittsburgh is nowhere near
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: as good as they look. I'm not gonna give about
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: a play on this. Something to keep in mind here,
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: although obviously if it wasn't obvious already, I do lean
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: to Philadelphia in this game. But they're off for mightus
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: one forty five to minus one fifty seven on the
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: money line, so the number is getting a little bit
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: away from you. I mean, if you want to play Philadelphia,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: you could do a couple of things. You could knock
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: it down to Philadelphia to win in regulation, you'll probably
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: get it at like an underdog price. Even maybe if
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: you do that that makes sense, or do the thing
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: that I do sometimes you make your own minus one
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: puck line and then if they win by one, it'll
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: be a push at least probably in this case. I
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: think the winning in regulation might be preferable. Though then
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: if it goes into overtime, you lose that bets. You
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: just have to be aware of that. So it's a
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: little bit more it's a little bit more risk averse.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: I guess to do the minus one puck line because
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: then if they do win by one, you'll at least
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: get your money back fifty three percent of ticket, sixty
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash on Pittsburgh. Not sure that
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: I buy that, because again, you would think that the
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: public would be just swarming in on Pittsburgh. And people
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: just saw Pittsburgh smash Saint Louis yesterday six to three.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: So this Pittsburgh team looks really good right now. But
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: again I would say, yeah, I would not want to
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: do that. They're on the back to back, Philadelphia hasn't
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: played since Saturday, they had to win over the Islanders.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: It's not gonna be something they're gonna be like in
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: letdown Moade. You know they're gonna show up for this
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh game, especially at home with multiple days off. So yeah,
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia should be the right side and this one. You
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: know you're gonna get Phillies a starting goalie too, although
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: not that it really matters because their goalies all pretty
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: much suck. Where are they at there? It is, it's
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: gonna be a vladaar Well, vladar Is doesn't suck that much.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: I guess he was on Calgary. Sorry, Jeffrey Silovs is
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: gonna be a net probably for Pittsburgh. They've been altereddy
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: between him and Jerry. It doesn't really matter though anyway. Yeah,
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: I think Philadelphia is the right side in that game
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: if I were to play it, which I won't. All right,
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Vegas and Carolina is a big game. Carolina. I had
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: a couple of different thoughts just right away, and their
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: conflicting thoughts, and I'm like, I can't do anything with
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: this game because Carolina just lost at Vegas four to
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: one on Monday, and that was their first loss of
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: the season. So it's like, well, that's gonna motivate Carolina here,
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: that's gonna put them in a revenge spot and early
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: in the NHL season, that's a good look. As I
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: pointed out not too long ago, then when a team
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: has lost to a team and actually it works well,
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: with the home and home scenario too, even though I
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: kind of like the road revenge angle better because a
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: lot of times you get that team as an underdog
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: or whatever. But I know that it's a pretty high
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: percentage playing in the NHL. Win a team lost on
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: the road, and then they play that team again at home,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: that team that's in revenge at home does well as
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: well early in the season. The problem I have with
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: Carolina is they've been on the road for two weeks.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: They've been away since October fourteenth. They started a road trip.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: They went all the way to the Pacific Coast, and
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: then they came They went to Texas. After they went
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: to Elevation to Colorado. Like I said, they lost that game,
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: or they won that game and a shootout, excuse me,
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: and then they're coming back home here now, so Colorado.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: Wait a minute, wait, no, no Vegas. What am I saying.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: I'm dude, I'm thinking of two different things at once here,
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: My apologies. Colorado is going to be in a very
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: similar spot today against the New Jersey. But Carolina. Yeah,
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: Carolina lost to Vegas. Then they went they wanted to
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: shootout at Colorado. Big win there, went down to Dallas
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: lost that game by one. They've had a couple of
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: days off. That was on Saturday, but they're returning home
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: from a law on road trip too, And I always
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: talk about how I either want to fade a team
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: that's returning home from a long road trip like that,
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: or I have to leave the game alone. And the
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: main thing is that the team's gonna be well, kind
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: of tired, but they're also gonna be a little bit
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: distracted because they have to get back to home life.
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: Although in this case, I don't think they're gonna be
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: distracted necessarily because not only is Vegas a big opponent,
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: but they lost to Vegas on the road trip and
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: that was one of their only two losses on the season.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: So I still think Caroline is gonna show up in
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: this game. They're not gonna overlook Vegas, probably not gonna
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: let those home distractions like completely take hold here, but
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: it is it is still a factor, and the fatigue
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: is still a factor. So I don't think I can
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: get there with Carolina Vegas. They're already in the Southeast
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: and they've already lost both two They've lost both games
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: they played on the road trip. So far, Florida and
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. So the spot doesn't look that bad to
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: me for Vegas, Like just I think they're gonna try
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: to salvage the last game of the road trip here.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: It's a big game for both teams, even though, yes,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: it is revenge for Carolina. The money's coming in on Carolina.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: They've moved up from minus one thirty three to minus
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: one forty four. Oddsmakers have them as the better team
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: out of these two sixty four percent of the tickets,
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: ninety six percent of the cash. So I think there
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: is legit money on the Carolina side here. I can't
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: do it because it's the return home spot. Yes, it
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: is a revenge spot. The travel spot is a lot
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: better for Vegas, though, so I think that just it
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: cancels it all out. I mean, if you want to,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: if you want to go with the money line, I
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: ver excuse you go with the market read on this.
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: Carolina on the money line, I guess is the side
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: that the market is saying right now. I think situationally though,
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: Vegas has a slight advantage in that game though, so
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: it's it's very, very difficult. I don't even know if
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: I want to necessarily give out an opinion on that one. Obviously,
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: I do not have a strong opinion one way or
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: the other in that game. Very difficult game to read,
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: so I don't know, man, Vladar is the better goalie. Yeah, yeah,
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: that makes sense as well because they've been off for
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: like multiple days. But yeah, their goalie situation last year
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: was terrible, so I think the fact that they got
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: Vladar over there has to be an improvement. A Columbus
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: at Buffalo. I can say that there is a pretty
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: strong market read on Columbus. I'm not going to disagree
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: with it, but I just don't really have a strong
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: like situational angle to lean back onto this one. Buffalo
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: is up for minus one fourteen of minus one sixteen
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: on the money line, sixty seven percent of the tickets
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: on them. So Buffalo is the public side for whatever reason.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: I don't really know why, because both of these teams
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: have pretty much the same record, the odds makers are
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: actually telling you Columbus is the slightly better team. Buffalo
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: not getting full home ice here, sixty six percent of
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: the cash on Columbus. Looking at the spot here, Buffalo
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: is coming off that back to back against Toronto, although
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: They've had multiple days off since then. They haven't played
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: since Saturday, so they're pretty well rested. They use their
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: third goalie, Lucan in that game in that last game,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: so I'm assuming it's gonna be lying again in this
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: one for Buffalo. For Buffalo, I don't think it matters
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: that much. Their goalies are just not that good. They're
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: coming off big games against Toronto, so I could kind
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: of see maybe this is a bit of a hangover spot.
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: They beat Toronto in one of them, and then I
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: think I gave out Toronto as a play in the
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: other one, and I think it pushed with the make
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: your own minus one puck line. Buffalo lost that game
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: in overtime, so I could see this being a bit
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: of a hangover spot here. They do a Boston on Thursday,
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: but Bruins not off to a very good start, so
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that's necessarily a look ahead, but
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: maybe you do still put more weight in that Boston
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: game than than in Columbus. I mean those Toronto and
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Boston are both original six teams. At least Columbus obviously
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: is not Columbus. They're coming up a win over Pittsburgh,
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: though They've had multiple days off too. They haven't played
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: since Saturday either. But that's kind of a big win
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: just because of the way Pittsburgh started out the season.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: And normally I wouldn't really consider that to be a
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: big win because Pittsburgh isn't actually that good. But maybe
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: Columbus considers that to be a big win right now
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: just because it was on the road. Pittsburgh is off
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: to a really good start. So I don't want to
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: necessarily say that this isn't a letdown spot for Columbus either.
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: I'll lean with the market to Columbus in this one,
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: but I don't have again, I don't think the situation
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: is that strong in that one. My Boston Bruins, they're
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: on a back to back, so right away that's bad,
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: and they were awful yesterday. They lost seven to two
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: to Ottaway yesterday with Swayman and Net and it's probably
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: gonna be Corpa Salo this time in Net. The Bruins
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: third game in four days as well. They were at
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: home against Colorado, had the win against Colorado's they were
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: kind of in a letdown spot and having to take
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: a single game roadtrip up to Ottawa. Sometimes teams just
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: do not focus in a spot like that. So I
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: think I mentioned that yesterday. I didn't think it was
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: a very good spot for the Bruins. They got crushed.
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: They could be in kind of an embarrassed mode now though,
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: and want to bounce back from such a horrendous looking
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: loss on the scoreboard, The game was actually closer statistically,
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: believe it or not, The Bruins actually were the way
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: more physical team. They had way more hits, although that
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: does tend to be the case with the Bruins. Twenty
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: eight to twenty four shot edged for the Bruins, but
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: part of that's because they're way behind. They got dominated
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: in the faceoffs though, so I mean basically the Bruins
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: did out physical Autawa though, and it still didn't even matter.
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: They're coming back home. The Islanders are going to be
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: their opponent here. The Islanders are off to a better
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: start than the Bruins, as they are above five hundred.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: The Islanders are the more rested team. They haven't played
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: since Saturday, although their loss on Saturday was it was
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: a shootout lost to Philadelphia, so it's not really a
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: game you're gonna put a lot of weight into. But
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: they did lose a four game win streak with that loss,
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: Sometimes when a team lose the wind streak, they will
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: be hung over a little bit coming into the next game.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that's gonna be the case here though,
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: because they have multiple days off. Will they overlook Boston
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: because they have Carolina and Washington up after this, I
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: don't know. I mean, those are obviously better opponents right now.
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: Possibly a look ahead, but the Bruins with a backup
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: goalie in here on a back to back, I really
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: don't love that at all. Sorok and most likely will
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: be in net for the Islanders, I would imagine because
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: they have rests, so they'll probably use their better goalie here.
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: The Islanders did move up for minus one twenty eight
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: to minus one forty on the money line, but they're
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: getting a lot of the public action. It looks like,
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: at least for now ninety four percent of the tickets,
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: although again I point out that in the morning here
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: a lot of these reads will change throughout the day
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: because in the morning, I think the most of the
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: tickets that you see in the morning are not the
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: recreational guys yet, like the recreational betters aren't gonna start
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: betting until like the middle of the day, and in hockey,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: they just don't bet hockey that much anyway. Though maybe
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: on the frenzy day maybe you'll see a little bit
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: more public action here. But you got to kind of
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: figure out how much you want to weigh these percentages.
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: Only seventy seven percent of the cash on the Islanders though,
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: so the market read right now looks like the Islanders
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: are a public road favored and that some of the
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: actual bigger money might actually be coming back in on
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: the Bruins as a home underdog. I'm certainly not going
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: to touch that on the back to back. I mean,
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: this is why like the situational handicapping, I think, especially
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: in these early morning hockey reads, it takes precedence over
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: the market. I like both things to align just ideally,
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: But I'm gonna go with my situational handicapping, man. I mean,
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: it's what has worked for me, is that's what I do,
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: and that kind of helps sort of like not overwey
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: like what you're seeing in the market, Like you could
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: do some pure market reads here, but it gets a
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: little bit dangerous earlier in the day. Although I do
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: think that Columbus market read is going to remain that
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: way because there's just such a like pros versus Joe's divide.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: It looks like right now in the market on that
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: one will what's up man, thanks for hanging out. I
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: forget who was somebody yesterday? I think did did say
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: that Poster Knock is really good right at the end
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: of the stream. And I don't remember if that was
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: Jeffrey or it might have been Nate. I don't remember,
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: but yes, poster Knock is really good. I have one
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: of his jerseys. He dresses with Flay or two. He
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: wears like ridiculous suits all the time. Yeah, I mean,
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: I love Poster Nach. But the Bruins, I mean, he's
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: an elite player. But the Bruins are just not a
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: deep team. They're not a well coached team. They're not
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: a good team right now. I don't know what else
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: could I could say about that. They have a few
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: really good players, but other than that, they're bad. Tampa
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: at Nashville. I took a look at this one and
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: I thought, well, Tampa, they're not in a good spot here. Tampa.
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: They just beat Vegas in overtime on Sunday, that's a
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: big win. Now they have this single game road trip
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: to Nashville where it's like, like, are they really gonna
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: get focused for Nashville after beating Vegas like that? And
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: then after this Thursday they gotta face Dallas and then
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: they have Utah, Colorado, Vegas again, Washington, even the Rangers,
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: and then Florida. So like, if they're gonna overlook any
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: of these teams here, it's gonna be Nashville. And now
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: I'm almost thinking I'm about to talk myself into a
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: play on Nashville here. I don't know man vasa Levski.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: Let see, is he gonna play for Tampa today? Do
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: we know? We probably don't know yet. Let me see,
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: he's listed as the projected starter unconfirmed right now, we
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: don't know. He probably will play because he only he's
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: played their last game and didn't play the previous game,
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: so they'll probably use him again, but sometimes they switch
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: him out after one game. It looks like so far
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: this year they've been using him for either two games
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: in a row or one game in a row, So
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: I don't know. There is a bit of a drop
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: off between him and Johansson though, but it looks like
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: a sandwich spot. The only issue that I kind of
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: have with Nashville here is they're coming off a couple
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: of big games themselves, playing a third game in four days.
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: Although it's a little bit easier because they're just staying
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: at home, they're not traveling. But they did lose to
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: Dallas in their last game. That's a big game, and
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: they did not get blown out. They only lost three
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: to two, so it was a close game. It was tied.
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: I believe in the third period of that game they
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: didn't use sorrow, so that they used a noon and
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: a net so sorrow. So their better goalie will be
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: back in net in this one, which is better for
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: Nashville that he's gonna be back in net. I definitely
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: lean to Nashville in this game. I think I gotta
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: stay off of it. You can get them a pretty
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: nice underdog price. Though it does look like a sandwich
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: spot that Tampa's in. I just worry a little bit
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: about maybe a little bit of a hangover for Nashville here.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna stick with my guns on this one and
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: not give out an extra play here. Tampa's up for
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: minus one forty six to minus one fifty two on
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: the money line, eighty six percent of the tickets, ninety
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: six percent of the cash. Tampa is definitely public. I
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: think you might see some of this cash percentage start
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: moving the other way. I think probably will be some
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: professional money coming in on the Nashville side, and that
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: on the on the Predators on the national side, and
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: that one the Nashville sex offenders. I'll leave it alone,
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: but I would I would lean to Nashville on the
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: money line in that game. Winnipeg at Minnesota, Uh, this
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: is an interesting one as well. Minnesota. I mean, their
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: record is not that good to start the season. I
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: think they were a little bit overrated last year. Winnipeg's
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: off to a pretty good start again like last year,
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: not quite like last year. Last year they were even
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: better at the start. But there's still six and three here.
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: They're coming off a fairly big game though. They lost
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: to Utah three to two at home on Sunday. Utah
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: off to a really good start, so maybe that we'll
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: have some kind of hangover effect here on Winnipeg a
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: little bit. They have this single game road trip to Minnesota.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: Will they be focused on it? Maybe? I mean their
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: next game up is against Chicago, So I don't I
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: don't think that's really gonna draw their focus really, even
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: though I know Chicago's above five hundred right now, but
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're really considered to be like to
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: be a good team at this point. So maybe Winnipeg,
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: we'll have more focus on Minnesota than Chicago. At the
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: very least. The spot to me looks better from Minnesota, though.
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: Minnesota they're like a I think they're a small home
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: underdog in this game. They're coming off an embarrassing loss
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: to San Jose. They lost to Utah six to two,
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: by the way, so people might take that into account
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: too and say, oh, well, Utah destroyed Minnesota. Utah barely
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: beat Winnipeg here, so we was a Winnipeg Obviously, we
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: have to take Winnipeg, right. I mean, the public's gonna
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: be on Winnipeg anyway, because everybody just kind of knows
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: they're the better team. It's just how much better are
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: they really? Like? I actually think both of these teams
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: are a little bit overrated going into the playoffs last year.
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: I think Minnesota is in the better spot though, because
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: whereas Winnipeg is off a big game against Utah, Minnesota
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: is coming off an ugly embarrassing loss, I mean again,
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: losing to San Jose home as a big favorite. That's
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: pretty bad. Maybe they were kind of caught in a
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: sandwich because they played New Jersey Utah they had Winnipeg
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: up next, although I know they lost both those games
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: in New Jersey and Utah. They've actually lost six of
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: their last seven games. But this looks like a bounce
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: back spot to me for Minnesota. Man, and they will
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: have their starting goalie back and net gustavsim because Wallstead
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: played their last game, so Minnesota will have their better
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: goalie in and I think Hellabuck will play for Winnipeg
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: as well here, so both starting goalies will be in
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: net here. Winnipeg is a small road favorite, and they're
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: very public. It looks way too easy to take Winnipeg here,
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: the team with the better record. I mean, everybody knows
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: they're the better team. The oddsmakers are conceding that they're
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: the better team, although they're not lining them as that
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: heavy of a road favorite. Up from minus one oh
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: five to minus one oh nine, eighty six percent of
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: the tickets only seventy seven percent of the cash, so
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: very public. Looks like more of the cash is on
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: the Minnesota side than on the Winnipeg side, or I
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: should say more of the bigger money. I should say
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: the cash discrepancy is indicating on Minnesota there right now,
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: if that makes sense. I mean, the higher percentage of
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: both the tickets and money are on Winnipeg right now,
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: but the fact that the cash percentage is lower means
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: some of the bigger bets are on the other side,
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: the quality bets, let's say the quantity, or on one
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: side the quality somewhat on the other side, lean to Minnesota.
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: On that game, we have a Detroit Saint Louis. This
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: is a revenge spot because Saint Louis did just lose
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: to Detroit. But they're on a back to back as well.
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: They're playing a third game in four days, all in
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: different cities, which is not that easy to do. They
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: did just lose at Detroit on Saturday, but they played
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: yesterday and Detroit did not. Although Saint Louis got smacked
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: by Pittsburgh in this game, one other thing I forgot
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: to point out, though, is that Saint Louis outplayed Pittsburgh
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: in this game, and so it was a misleading result. Again,
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's not as good as they look, so that kind
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: of also is another indicator to lead towards the Flyers today.
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: Against the Pittsburgh Saint Louis outshot them, out, hit them out,
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: face off them. They had fewer penalties. I don't understand
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: how Saint Louis lost this game, to be honest. There
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: was one empty net goal at the end, but that
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: was a bit of a misleading result. So Saint Louis
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: isn't quite as bad as they looked yesterday. At the
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: very least, they're gonna be in revenge mode here. They're
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: gonna have Bennington back in net here because they used
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: Hoffer I think yesterday and net so they will have
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: their starting goalie back for this one, Bennington, So that
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: helps Saint Louis. Detroit has more rest though, because they
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: haven't played since they beat Saint Louis on Saturday. They
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: did not play since then, so they have a couple
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: of days off. They're starting a road trip, so a
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: lot of times you start the road trip you do
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: want to be focused on that first game. Probably you'll
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: get Gibson back in net again for Detroit here. He's
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: been there. Goalie that they've been using more often recently.
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: I don't know if it matters that much one way
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: or the other as far as their goalie is concerned.
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: The money looks like it's coming in on Detroit a
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: little bit of THEO. We don't see percentages yet, but
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: they flip from plus one hundred to minus one oh nine.
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: Some of that's probably just because Saint Louis is in
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: the back to back, so you kind of have to
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: factor that in Osmigers are telling you Detroit's the better
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: of the two teams. Everybody kind of knows that anyway,
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: because Detroit has the better record, even though Saint Louis
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: is on the back to back, because they're not as
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: bad as they looked yesterday, they have their starting goalie
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: back in net. It is revenge for them. I actually
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: would kind of lean to Saint Louis in this game
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: despite the back to back, So just that's my thought
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: on that game. Washington at Dallas. This is a big
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: matchup as well. Dallas is better than the record probably
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: looks right now, even though five to three and one
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: is not exactly bad. Washington's six to three and oh though,
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: and Washington's coming off their ugliest loss of the season.
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: They lost seven to one to Ottawa at home. I mean,
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: even though Lotto is a pretty solid team, I don't
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: really I mean, I don't care. Like if you lose
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: that badly to anybody, I think you're gonna be pretty
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: pissed about that. And I think it's gonna be good
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: for Washington to just get out of home after they
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: had such a horrific loss, go out on the road,
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: refocus on hockey. This is gonna be one of the
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: ESPN games today. It's a big game. It's one of
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: the biggest games on the board. I think you're gonna
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: get focused on for Washington. I think it's a bounce
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: back spot for them. Thompson probably back in net for them.
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: It doesn't matter. I don't think a whole lot between
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: him and Lyingren. I think they're both fairly decent. Thompson
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: probably the slightly better goalies. He will have that going
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: for Washington as well. Dallas they're returning home from a
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: single game trip to Nashville, where they still got the win,
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: even though I thought it was a letdown spot for Dallas.
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: Did I play in Nashville in that game, I don't remember.
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: I don't remember if I gave out a play on
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: Nashville or not, but it was a bad spot for
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: Dallas because they were coming off a win over Carolina.
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: Looked like a sandwich spot a single game trip to Nashville,
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: so kind of like what Tampa is doing today, and
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: then they had to come back home and play this
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: Washington game next on frozen Frenzy Day. So that was
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: a bad spot for Dallas. And they had a backup
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: goalie into they had to smith the net in that
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: one as well. So a lot of things were lining
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: up against Dallas in that game and they still won.
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: Now they're coming back home, they'll have Ottinger back and
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: net for this one. So to me, I mean, I
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: don't think it's really that negative of a spot for
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: either team. I think the spot's a little bit better
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: for Washington because they're in such a bounce back spot.
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: Dallas is down for minus one thirty five to minus
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: one thirty four as a money line favorite here, but
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: they have sixty seven percent of the tickets eighty four
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash right now, so the cash somewhat
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: indicating on Dallas right now. I somewhat disagree with that one.
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: I think I would slightly leant to Washington and the
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: bounce back. I don't think I could touch it, though,
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: New Jersey at Colorado. New Jersey off to an eight
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: and one start. I think they have the best record
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: in hockey. They just beat Colorado on Sunday in New
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: Jersey in overtime, so this is gonna be a quick
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: revenge spot for Colorado. So that's definitely something to take
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: into account. On New Jersey, they're gonna be starting a
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: road trip here because it is Colorado, and their next
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: game is only against San Jose. I don't think New
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: Jersey is gonna overlook Colorado. It was a close game
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: the last time, although Colorado will have some adjustments to make. Probably,
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: I believe you're gonna get both starting goalies back in
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: net for this one. It'll be Allen most likely again
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: for on New Jersey, and Colorado will have Wedgewood back
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: in net because I'm pretty sure he didn't play in
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: the last game. Colorado has a lot of overtime losses
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: this year. Man, they played a lot of close games.
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: Four losses in a row for Colorado. They're not as
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: bad as that makes them look. Three of those are
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: in overtime. One of them was called I mean, they
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: were to all good teams except Boston, and the Boston
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: one I think was in a tough spot, kind of
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: a sandwich spot. Their other losses were to Utah, Colorado,
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: New Jersey. Not gonna knock them for any of that.
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: Last two of those were with a minor in Net
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: instead of Wedgewood, so some of the things were a
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: little bit against Colorado in those games. I think this
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: is a better spot for Colorado. You're gonna have Wedgewood
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: back in Net. It is a revenge spot for them.
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: The problem that I have with it is they're returning
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: home from a road trip. Although it was not a
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: long road trip, it was only a two game road trip,
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: so they were back. They were at home on Thursday,
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: so they only went on this quick road trip to
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: Boston and New Jersey, but it still took them east.
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: It is still technically a road trip return, and maybe
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: they got stuff to do back at home. But I
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna overlook the team that literally just
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: beat them. Although they do a vegas up next to
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: it's not for a few days they have to go
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: back out on the road. Actually, although sometimes when you
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: have a single game back home, it does kind of
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: exacerbate the return home spot because you only have like
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: a little bit of time to get something done there.
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: But I think I'm gonna still lean to Colorado in
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: this one. The money is indicating on that side. They're
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: up for minus one thirty five to one fit five
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: seventy six percent of the tickets ninety one percent of
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: the cash on them. I just don't think I could
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: do it. I mean, New Jersey still kind of in
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: a positive spot with the start of the road trip,
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: Colorado still returning home from a road trip technically can't
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: quite get there with it. I will lean to Colorado slightly.
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: Maybe you could take them to win the game in
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: regulation because like pretty much all their wins at least
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: happen in regulation. Every time they go into overtime they lose. Though,
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: Uh pretty much, Jeffrey, you like Colorado? Yeah, I mean
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: I'll agree, but uh, very what's the word I'm looking for? Tentative,
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: Not tentative, teppid. Maybe I'm in tepid agreement with that one.
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: All right? What else? So much hockey today man Utah
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: and Edmonton has turned out to be a pretty big
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: game here man, And wait a minute, what the fuck
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: did I talk about one of my players already? No?
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: I didn't. I'm gonna get back to it. I was
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: gonna say, did I forget what one of my players was? No,
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: I haven't done it yet. Edmonton, they were returning home
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: from a road trip, but they only went to Seattle
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: and Vancouver. They were back at home on Thursday, so
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: a short trip. But this trip is definitely shorter because
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: they basically stayed. They stayed in the Pacific Northwest, so
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: not really that much of a travel spot here. They
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: did just lose both of those games, but Edmonton was
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: the superior team in both of those matchups, so they
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: basically got upset in both of those games. I think.
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: So they're returning on from that, maybe they'll have a
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: little bit more focused here. It is still a third
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: game in four days, though in different cities, which makes
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: it a little bit difficult. It will be Skinner back
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: in net for this one, I'm assuming because Picker played
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: in the last game, so Edmonton's top string goalie will
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: be back in net in this one, even though I
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: don't think he's that good. Utah is just on a
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: huge run, right now and they've won seven games in
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: a row. They're off to a really good start. They
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: just be Winnipeg. They're on the fourth game of a
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: four game road trip. They've already won the first three
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: games of the road trip. They're in a tough spot
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: because they're actually playing a fourth game in six days
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: all the different city. Isn't actually a fifth game in
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: eight days, all in different cities. So I think at
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: some point there's gonna be some fatigue setting in for
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: Utah here, and people are gonna look at these records
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: and say, oh my god, the eight and two Utah
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: Man are an underdog against four to four and two Edmonton. Yeah,
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: but both of Utah's losses have come on the road.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: Edmonton has no regulation losses at home. They played most
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: of their games on the road so far Edmonton has
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: so the records are a little bit misleading. The oddsmakers
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: are actually telling you Edmonton is actually the better team. Uh,
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: fifty six percent of the tickets are on Edmonton. I
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: mean the public still, I think kind of knows. Yeah,
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: this is Edmonton. They made the Stanley Cup Finals last
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: two years. They still have McDavid, So the public isn't
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: totally on board with the Utah on this one, but
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: it looks like they are not Edmonton enough credit still,
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: as Edmonton does have eighty eight percent of the cash
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: coming in on them. The money line dropped for minus
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: one fifty seven to minus one, so a little bit
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: of a better price on Edmonton. I would lean to
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: Edmonton in this game. The travel spot looks pretty bad
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: to me for Utah. Fatigue might be setting in there.
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: Lean to Edmonton for me, probably money lined in that one.
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: McKinnon is notoriously bad on the three on three in overtime. Yeah,
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: overtimes three on three to try to end the game
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: faster because the fewer guys you have on the ice,
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: the more easy it is to score because there's there
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: are fewer guys defending. Yeah. I don't know about McKinnon specifically,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: but yeah, there's something going on there with with that
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: overtime record. Montreal and Seattle. I know, I only skipped
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: like a couple of games that. Hopefully guys don't mind.
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: Montreal coming off that win over Vancouver on Saturday, they're
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: finishing a road trip here where they're already two to
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: one on the road trip, only loss was by one
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: to Edmonton, but that was the only game that they're
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: starting goaling. Montembau played. DoBeS has actually played three of
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: the last four games. Even though I thought Montembau was
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: their guy, he looked like he was good last year.
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: So I don't know, man, is it gonna be Montembau
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: back in net in this one? I don't know. It
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: looks like I guess it won't be. I don't know.
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: Where's Montreal. Yeah, I guess it's gonna be DoBeS again
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: in this one. I guess DoBeS has overtaken him. I
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: don't know, man. It seems weird to me about Montreal
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: coming off a few good wins here. They've had a
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: couple of days off, so they are rested. But maybe
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: they'll kind of overlook Seattle in this final road game.
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: They do have Outawa back at home on Saturday, so
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that's gonna be a little bit
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: of a look ahead. Maybe Seattle's off to a good
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: start this year, though I don't think there as good
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: as the record makes them look, so maybe Montreal doesn't
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: totally overlook them, especially with a few days off. But
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: Montreal is off to a good start too. The record
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: is better than Seattle's is so far. Seattle already lost
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: to Montreal once though, back on October fourteenth, so it
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: is a little bit of a revenge spot, one of
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: those early season home revenge angles coming in to play
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: for Seattle here. Maybe Montreal might slightly overlook them for
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: that reason, although Montreal did have to go into overtime
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: to beat them at home that time. I also don't
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: really want anything to do with Seattle here because they're
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: coming off beating Winnipeg and Edmonton. They actually return home
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: from a long road trip on Saturday and they still
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: focus and they beat Edmonton. Big win for Seattle there.
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: They've had a couple of days off since then, but
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: big win could be still a letdown spot maybe for
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: Seattle here. Man. So I don't love the spot for
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: either team. The money's coming into Montreal actually, maybe weighing
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: that letdown spot a little bit more heavily there. Montreal
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: up for minus one to fifteen to minus one twenty
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: two on the money line, seventy five percent of the tickets,
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: eighty three percent of the cash on them, man. I mean,
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: maybe I'll resort to agree with the market in this one.
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: Just to you know, clinch my opinion on that game. Certainly,
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna give it out as a play, but
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: I guess I'll slightly lean to Montreal with the market
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: on the money line in that one. I don't love
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: it though. And then San Jose I'll just point out
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: because they're returning over a road trip. I think this
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: is a bad spot for San Jose. They're coming up
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: that overtime win over Minnesota. They actually won two games
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: on the road trip, so they finally got a couple
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: of wins. But they're returning home not an easy spot.
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: They've been away for about a week, they went all
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: the way east. It's a difficult spot. And man, I know,
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: maybe they'll try to get up for an in state
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: rival kind of in the La Kings, but the Sharks
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: are just not a good team and could be in
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a letdown spot. Probably Inn Delkovich
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: and net from them in this one. I don't think
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: it really matters though, but he's the one that gave
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: up that. He basically like created an empty net going
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: overtime in whatever game that was earlier, So he's no good.
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: LA is kind of returning home as well, though in
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: a way. Even though this is a road game, LA
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: has been on a road trip since the twenty first
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: as well, and they're returning back to the Pacific time
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: zone after winning three out of four on the road here,
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: with their only loss being to Nashville in a shootout,
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: which I don't remember if that was one of my
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: plays or not, because that looked like a bit of
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot with LA coming off a win over
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: Dallas prior to that, LAS coming up a win over
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: Chicago now, which was one of my losses. I think
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: I made a mistake. I think I said it was
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: two to one. It actually was three to one because
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: there was an empty net right at the end, But
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: the game was really close. I think Chicago actually outplayed them.
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: I think my handicap was not incorrect on that game.
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: It just wound up being a loser. But LA now
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: traveling back to the Pacific coast to how focused are
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: they really going to be on San Jose with a
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: couple of big games coming up after this. I don't
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: know it's a worse spot for San Jose. I would
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: probably still mean to LA, but I don't want to
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: touch this. LA is up for minus one to seventy
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: five to minus one ninety four on the money line.
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: I also apologize for my voice and being sick. Oh god,
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know when my voice is coming back. Eighty
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: nine percent of tickets ninety eight percent of the cash
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: on the Kings, so the money is somewhat on the Kings,
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: even though they're also public. If you wanted to play
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: the Kings, here could be a situation where you got
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: to go with the Kings to win in regulation maybe,
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: or make your own minus one puck line or whatever,
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: slightly into the Kings in that game. Though. All right,
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: let's go. We'll make this the best bet segment and
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: it'll carry over into having a couple of NBA plays.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: All right, first one up. Jeffrey is gonna be a
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: fan of this one here. It's gonna be the Anaheim Ducks.
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: Make your own puck line here. Playing on the Ducks
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: a couple of times this year. I think it's worked
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: out for me. I think they beat Boston one of
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: the times I played them in the other time, did
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: they win against Chicago or do they lose? I don't remember.
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: Maybe that was a loser for me. But the Ducks,
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're a team that you can pick some
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: spots and they could show up against some teams that
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: are in bad spots. I think this is gonna be
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: one of them. Right now. You can take the plus
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: one and a half puck line at minus one fifty
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: two and the money line at plus one seventy. If
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: you want to really go crazy and just go money line,
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: you could do that too, just to pay a little,
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: pay a little to win a lot. If you want
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: to go that way. I don't think that's a bad move.
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: But I'm gonna go a little bit more risk averse here.
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: You don't have to put that or yeah, I guess
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: risk averse because if they lose by one, my bet
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: is going to be a push. So there is that.
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: This is against Florida, by the way, which is why
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: Jeffrey is gonna like this one. The spot sets up
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: for it, man, But I don't know. I was trying
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: to finish my thought. I don't even remember what my
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: thought was gonna be on this, but yeah, I mean
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: for to do what I'm doing here with the split
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: bet here. Oh, I was gonna show you, yeah, the
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: one line calculator that I usually bring up here. Yeah,
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: like you're risking actually a little bit less in total
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: than you would on a minus one ten because the
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: the de facto line on the on the plus one
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: puck line here becomes plus one of four, So you're
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: actually risking a little bit less on this one till still,
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: so I like it. That's the way that I would
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: split it up. So you wind up putting a little
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: bit more on the puck line in this case, almost
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: about a two to one split, but not quite. But yeah,
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: get it. That's getting real technical as far as uh,
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: we're you know, we're to split the money. But Florida,
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: I think they're in a bad spot. This is a
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: pretty classic sandwich spot. I know they've had two days off,
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: so the probably have Bebrovskin net again in this one.
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: Maybe not, though I don't know. They do have a
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: couple of days off after this, so probably bobrovskill just
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: keep playing, but it's possible maybe they give him a
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: rest here and bring Tarasov in. I don't think it
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: matters as far as the handicap is concerned. Yes, Bebrovski
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: is better, but I think this is just a bad
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: spot for Florida. They just beat Vegas in a shutout
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: and I had Florida. That was one of my plays
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: that I gave it on the show. I thought Vegas
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: was in a bad spot in that one. Florida was
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: able to get the win. Vegas had a a win
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: streak ended with that a loss as well. That was
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: a big win for Florida and they haven't played since then.
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: They've just been sitting around, probably maybe getting a little
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: bit cocky about that win. Now they get the Anaheim
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: Ducks coming in and after this they got to play Dallas,
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: which Dallas is going to draw your attention. Man. Even
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: though they're off to a little bit of a worse
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: start than maybe people expected, there's still a good team.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: They're in above five hundred team, there's still one of
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: the top teams in the NHL. So I think that's
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: a bigger game. I think Florida might just overlook this
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: game against Anaheim. Here. Anaheim, in my opinion, I think,
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: will show up for this and Anaheim is already in Florida,
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: and they've also had the same amount of rest. They've
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: had a few days off, which is pretty helpful for
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: them because they've already played four games on this road trip,
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: so they're finishing the road trip. This is actually gonna
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: be the rubber match of their road trip because they're
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: two and two on the road trips. I think sometimes
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: that is an extra motivator. You want to finish the
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: road trip with a winning record. On the road trip.
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: They did just lose to Tampa Bay, but they're not
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: gonna overlook the Returney Champs man the two time Returney
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: Champ Florida Panthers not gonna overlook them. And the fact
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: that they had multiple days off I think will help
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: cut into that fatigue that might have been setting in
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: on the road trip, So they get extra days to
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: rest here. They'll have a dostele back in net here
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: as their their goal here. I think they're gonna show
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: up for it. I think Florida maybe a little bit
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: too heavy of a favorite here, kind of riding that
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: wave that they've had the last couple of years. They're
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: still a good team, don't get me wrong. I think
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: they're better than Jeffrey does. But this is a spot
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: to fade them. They're down for minus one ninety to
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: minus one seventy seven on the money line. They're fairly
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: heavy favorite ninety eight percent of the tickets, only ninety
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: two percent of the cash Florida looking like a very
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: public side here today and a little bit less of
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: the money on them with reverse line moving against them.
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: So we'll do that one. Anaheim, make your own plus
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: one puck line on that one. Jeffery, you're gonna join
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: me on that one. I assume Quennevilla's the Ducks playing hard. Yeah,
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: I forgot where he even was. Joel Quinneville I think
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: is his name? Wasn't he? I don't know. Was he
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: the one who was the coach of Chicago and there
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: were all those allegations coming up out about him, like
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: bullying players or whatever. Was that him? I don't know.
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: Maybe that's bad ass though, Maybe you gotta whip your
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: guys into shape, man, I don't know. Adrian Peterson another
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: d uy, he got one, like within the last few weeks.
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: I think, is this another one on top of that
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: or did you just not see that news yet? I
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: don't know. Speaking of beating young men or in this
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: case children, Adrian Peterson of course known for doing that
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: as well, kind of like Tyreek Hill. A lot of
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: these NFL players doing that, by the way, and this
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: was gonna work Fantasy football league too. Back at my
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: previous not the company that I that I was most
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: recently aut at the company before that. That was a
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: really fun company. I mean everything was better back in
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: like the early twenty tens. Man Like, everything was so
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: much better when I was at this company. The company
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: was just party time, Like nobody really cared what anybody said.
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: Politics weren't like influencing anything at that point. Everybody was
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: just having fun, drinking, having fun in the office. A
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: lot of you know, like HR violating comments flying all
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: over the place in that office didn't matter. But at
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: that company. In that fantasy football league, I had Adrian
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: Peterson on my team and I named my team Adrian
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: beat his son. I don't think I won that league,
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: but yeah, by the way, I did win in my
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: main fantasy league last night with Mahomes and Rice, who
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: basically did nothing in the first half, they went crazy
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: in this half. So I apologize for an incorrect opinion
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: on that game on the Washington plus the points. They
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: didn't make it a play. Some professionals that I followed
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: did did. I didn't give out a play like some
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: of the touts gave that out as a play yesterday.
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure I wasn't gonna get there with that one.
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: I wound up being wrong about it. But I did
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: win Fantasy again, so I'm seven to one in my
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: main league, so I'm happy about that at least, even
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: though my team is not good except for Mahomes and
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: Johnathan Taylor. Those guys are carrying me. Man. Mahomes is
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: like the number one Fantasy quarterback this year because he
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: runs the football, so that helps out. Software engineering, sir,
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: is the field that I'm in. I mean, so many
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: companies need it that I've been. I've been in completely
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: different industries doing it. The fun company that I was
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: at was an e commerce website, which also probably lends
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: to the fun. But the company blew all of its
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: money basically, and the company doesn't exist anymore, so that's
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: awesome anyway. Anaheim is the play in that one. The
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: other play, you guys might not like as much. It
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: might be uglier. We're gonna go with the New York
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: Rangers on the money line here. I'm still gonna ride
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: this train, man and tell you that the Rangers are
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: not as bad as they look right now, and the
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: odds makers are telling you that as well. I still
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: expect some sort of bounce back from the Rangers, and
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: I think Vancouver is just a mediocre team this year,
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: so I think we could fade them here. And the
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers are telling you something with the fact that the
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: Rangers are road favorite here even though they're below five
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: hundred on the season. They're road favorite against a five
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: hundred Vancouver team. Interesting that the odds makers definitely are
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: telling you something with that, because you've got to expect
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: the public is probably not really gonna be buying into
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: it right now. Rangers. Rangers have also been a little
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: bit better on the road actually, so just all their
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: wins of come on the road. So interestingly enough, the Rangers,
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: I mean I've talked about it on the show. The
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: Rangers offense has been horrible at home for whatever reason.
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: I think their first three games at home they didn't
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: even score. So yeah, I'm more willing to take the
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: Rangers on the road here, man, you get them at
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: a better price, and they've actually been a better road
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: team three to one and one on the road all
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: three of their wins. I say we do it. I
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: think Vancouver is gonna letdown spot because they just beat Edmonton.
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: That's a big win. Man, I mean those teams are
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: division foes. Whatever. It's a huge win over Edmonton, who's
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: been the team in the Western Conference last couple of years.
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: Overtime game as well. They're playing a third game in
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: four days, although I know it's not as bad when
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: they're playing at home all three of those games. Whatever,
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: but I think they might overlook an Eastern Conference team
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: that's pull out five hundred here. Man. With Saint Louis
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: Minnesota up next, those are conference matchups coming up next year.
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: I think it's a bad spot. The very least is
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot for Vancouver. I've been alternating dem going
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: Lancing and so if that continues, we'll actually use lancan
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: And again in this one, who I think is a
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: little bit of a downgrade. The site that I look
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: at said that it was gonna be Demco again, but
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: it was not confirmed, so I don't know. I don't
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: care either way. I still like the spot for the
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: Rangers here. I am pretty sure that the Rangers will
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: have Shasterkin in net again here. He's played three games
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: in a row. I think they'll use them again as possible.
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: They don't because they do have Edmonton up next, but
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: they tend to use Shasterkin most of their games, but
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: even if they don't, I'm okay with Quick here. The
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: Rangers have actually been okay and Quicks two games. One
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: of them was a road win at Montreal and the
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: other was a one nothing loss against Washington, so Quick
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: was not bad in that game, So I'm fine as
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: Quick as in net here too. He's a veteran, he's
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: been good throughout his career. Rangers goaltending tandem is actually
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: pretty solid. And the Rangers are on an embarrassing stretch
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: of games right now. Man, they lost to San Jose
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: at home in overtime. They've actually lost six of their
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: last seven games, but at least their earlier losses were
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: to good teams. It faced a difficult schedule so far,
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: but they had some ugly losses. Man at home to
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: Minnesota somewhat ugly, but then San Jose almost no excuse
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: for that loss. At home to San Jose. Then they
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: got to get out of there. Go on the road.
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: Should have been a good spot for them against a
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: bad Calgary team. But what did they do? They shit
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: the bed again and they lost five to one in
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: this game. I don't even know how this happened. The
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: Rangers out hit Calgary twenty eight to eighteen, so they
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: were the more physical team. They had a higher face
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: off percentage in the game, they had more shots, although
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: part of that was because they were losing the game.
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: It was a three to one game in the third
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: period and they give them a short handed goal and
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: the game got away from them. But I still think
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: the result in that game is a little bit misleading.
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: It's really embarrassing when you lose to a Calgary team
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: that I think hadn't won since their opening game. I
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: think you're gonna get more focused from the Rangers here. Man,
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: something's got to give. Vier like it. The oddsmakers are
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: telling you basically what you need to know about this game.
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: The Rangers for some reason are getting eighty one percent
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: of the tickets right now, though I think a lot
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: of those tickets are professional tickets to be honest. Right now,
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: I just don't think the public is really coming in
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: heavily on this game. In the morning, like this, ninety
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: four percent of the cash on the Rangers. I think
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: the actual money is on the Rangers up for minus
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: one of four to minus one fifteen on the money line.
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: I only saw it at best at minus one eighteen
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: out there, but obviously get the best price that you can.
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: Rangers money line will be the play in that one,
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: So that is that is that one? Yeah, breaking a
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: losing streak, I'm the streak buster man, I've done it
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: a couple of times this year in NHL. Already, let's
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: do it. Yahoo's showing money on Vancouver. I don't know
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: what books is Yahoo like showing numbers from. I don't know.
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: Like I trusted this pre game screen more than like
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: any other free tool that's out there. I trust it
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: more than Action Networks paid tool because Action Network is
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: just sol lopsided towards like the public online books. I
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: can't get a good gauge MGM. I mean, MGM is
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: an extremely square book, so I don't know. In Massachusetts,
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: their number like lags behind all the other books too,
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: like they're the easiest book to beat, which I guess
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: maybe that means more professionals will actually bet at MGM.
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I don't trust MGM's numbers at all. Like
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: that's like the fucking John Ewing, that guy or whatever
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: his name is on Twitter. He puts out all these
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: like cash percentages ticket percentages that don't line up with
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: what I see at all. But what the fuck are
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: you looking at, dude? I don't know. I don't trust
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: that a lot of these guys that work at these
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: sports books, I don't trust them. They're not actually handicappers,
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: so to me, a lot of times, I think they
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: just don't know what the fuck they're talking about, to
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: be honest, even though they should be on the end,
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: like they could see like where the tickets are, but
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: I think they don't have a gauge on like like
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: what like what do these tickets mean necessarily? Which I
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: try to do like reading the market. I try to
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: do that. I don't know, man, I'm not always gonna
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: be right either, But I mean, I think this screen
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: here is telling me basically what I need to know
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: on this one, and it's confirming my situational read on
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: this game. Really, so my situational read is telling me
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: Rangers in this one. So I'm gonna do what I
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: keep doing here. It's not necessarily gonna be a winner,
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: but that's what I'm gonna do. Let's go to the NBA. Here,
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna have two plays in the NBA. I don't
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: know if the if some of these other games might
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: not even really be worth talking, well fine, I'll talk
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: about all of them. Whatever. Charlotte Miami, we don't. We
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: only have five NBA games here. Miami could be in
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a letdown spot. That would be
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: my very quick read on this game. They just beat
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: the Knicks. They do have San Antonio up next, which
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: may cause people cause teams to look ahead at this
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: point because Wemba is a star or a star in
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: the making. I don't know, so Miami could be a
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: little bit of sandwich spot playing Charlotte here, who has
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: a winning record right now, but it's early. Charlotte not
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: that good of a team, but I do think they're
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: better than people think they are right now. Charlotte is
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: coming off an easy blowout win over Washington, finishing a
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: road trip here. It is a third game in four
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: DA's for them all on the road, though, so that
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: makes it a little bit more difficult. I can't quite
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: get there with this one, but I would lean to
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: Charlotte plus the points in this one. I do think
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: generally it is a let down spot for Miami. Charlotte though,
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: whenever you blow a team out that badly like they
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: did to Washington a lot of times. I won't want
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: to be on that team in the next game, even
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: though I know beating Washington shouldn't have you feeling overconfident.
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean that's just my general opinion. I
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: think the Heat letdown spot I think is the biggest
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: factor in this one. The money's somewhat disagreeing with that.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: The Heat are up from four and a half to
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: six as a favorite at home here, sixty three percent
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: of ticket sixty eight percent of the cash on them. Yeah,
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: I mean you could see these numbers may change throughout
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: the day too. Like, I'm not gonna put that much
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: weight into that. The Heat, I think are gonna be
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: the public side in that game. At the very least.
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna get there with it though. And you
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: can tell what games are gonna be on because I'm
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: skipping them right now. Sacramento at Oklahoma City. Oklahoma City's
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: four and oh to start the season. I mean, they've
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: picked up right where they left off basically, though they
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: did go into overtime into two games. They also played yesterday,
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: so probably gonna be a tired Oklahoma City team at
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: this point. They're playing a third game in four days now,
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: all in different cities, and they're returning home from a
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: road trip were they were on the road trip since Thursday,
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: then they didn't really travel that far or travel for
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: that long period of time. But it is still a
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: return home spot. They don't have a big game up
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: next though, it's just against Washington, so like who cares
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: beat in Dallas yesterday, maybe a big game, it is
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: still a back to back with travel. I mean, Dallas,
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be a pretty good team at some point
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: once they get going, which may have already started to
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: some degree because Dallas I think did cover the number
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: and that was only a seven point final there. Sacramento,
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're coming off kind of a tough game
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: as well on Sunday game that we're gonna get up
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: four against the Lakers. The Lakers were in the injured
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: player theory spot in that game, first game without Luca,
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: so is it possible Sacramento took them a bit lightly? Maybe,
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: but still it was a fairly close game against the Lakers,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: so sometimes that could kind of hang you over into
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: the next game too. So I'm not gonna get there
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: with this one. The thunder are actually taking some of
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: the money right now. They're a ten and a half
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: point favorite, sixty nine percent of the tickets, eighty two
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them. It looks like they're
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: gonna be some of the cash. They're a very good
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: home team going back through last year. Although if you
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: forced me to give out an opinion on this, I
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: would actually slightly need to taking the points with Sacramento here.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: I just think, okaysee, might be a bit tired at
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: this point and maybe just try to get in and
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: get out of this game. But there's no way that
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna make that a play, so I'm staying away
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: from that one. And then we have Clip Warriors. Interesting
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: game here to California teams here, Clippers, they got the
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: win and non cover on Sundays, So that was a
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: loss for me on that one. With the Clippers missing
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: by one point, one point away from the push at
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: least against Portland, I don't think they're gonna be overconfident
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: after that winner for Portland though, and especially because they
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: didn't cover either out on the road now to face
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: Golden State, I think you know you're gonna get focused
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: out of the Clippers here. Clippers not as good of
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: a road team though. Golden State they're coming up a
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: game where they scored over one hundred and thirty points.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: They scored one hundred and thirty one they won yesterday,
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: so they're on a back to back, so I think
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: the spot does look worse for Golden State here. People
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: might read into the like this transit of property thing
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: somewhat and say, oh, well, Golden State got killed by
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: Portland on the road, and which was one of my
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: winners on the show. By the way, it was a
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: bad spot for Golden State. They were coming off an
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: overtime game against Tenver with no time off, having to
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: go to Portland for one game, so that was a
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: good handicap by me, and that one I must say
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: with Portland. Portland's been a good one for us so
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: far this year too. I think they've won both games.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: I've given them out. But it was an explainable loss
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: for Golden State in that one. But people might read
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: into the fact that, oh well, Golden State got crushed
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: by Portland and the Clippers beat Portland, so maybe that
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: means the public's gonna slightly want to actually grab the
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: Clippers here for that reason, though that doesn't quite seem
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: to be the case. Looking at the numbers here, I'm
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: gonna slightly lean to the Clippers in this one. I
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: think the spot is worse for the Warriors because it
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: is a back to back. Don't know if they're gonna
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: be resting anybody here. Al Horford might not play because
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: he's listed his day to day Clippers flip from a
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: plus one app point dog to a two point favorite.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: Don't know if that's all just actual money on the Clippers,
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: or if that's because of Warriors maybe resting some people,
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: maybe because of the back to back. I think some
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: of that is factory into that a little bit. Seventy
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: eight percent of tickets it is usually on the war
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: is eighty four percent of the cash. I'm gonna lean
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: to the Clippers slightly in this one. Fading the public
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: as a road public favorite, I mean the fact that
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: their favorite is telling you something. The osbeakers are telling
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: you that in this spot they actually think the Clippers
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: are the better team, which is interesting. I mean, the
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: Clippers do have a pretty good roster. I mean, I'm
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: not a fan of James hard And really, but he
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: is good during the regular season at the very least
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: sometimes he becomes a head case. I do think they
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: have Bradley Beale as well now, right, so they have
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: a pretty stacked lineup with the Clippers there, and Kawhi
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: Leonard I think is there too, although he's old, but
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: he's still going up there doing his thing. He's lost weight.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that's a good thing or not,
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: but whatever. Lean to the Clippers in that one. You
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: like Sacramento in that one? Yeah, yeah, I mean it's
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: a slightly for me in that one. I'm trying to
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: read all the comments here, Nate, you want Caprasov and
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: Poster not to score today. I just never like those
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: props like that because, like the books never give you
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: good enough odds on that. It's like the home run
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: props in baseball. A specific player to score a goal,
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: or a specific player to score a touchdown or whatever.
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: It's like you're gonna get an underdog price on It
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: looks tempting, but the odds should be you should be
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: getting better odds than what the books give you, just
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: based on the likeliness of that actually happening. So I
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: really don't love doing that personally, although I mean for
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: recreational you know, for fun. Want to throw some money
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: on it? Yeah, I mean have some fun with it, man,
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, I know, I don't want to be I
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: don't want to be buzz Killington. Here bet bet Killington
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: man man, maybe that'll be my new name for the show,
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: BET's Killington. I don't know. I gotta, I gotta, I
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: gotta try to think of I don't know something. I
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: don't know. But maybe I'm a buzzkill because I just
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: I stick to the grind. I'm like, no, you gotta
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: only put money out there, like on a spot where
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: you think you have an advantage. Man, Like you're like
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: alternative lines for the unders maybe, yeah, I mean I
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: think sometimes that can work out in your favor. I
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: like you're talking about you want to actually like get
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: like a bigger what a bigger underdog price on some
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: side that you think is like is the likely side?
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: You push it like a couple other points. I don't know.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: I don't like. Throwing value a way necessarily depends what
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: odds the odds maker is giving you on it, really,
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: which they probably don't give you good enough odds on
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: the alternate lines to be honest, But it depends is
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: the money saying under on Golden State. Yes, eighty eight
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets are on the over, fifty percent
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the over total already plummeted from
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: two twenty eight to twenty five and a half, though,
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: so missed out on some value there because the these
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: totals get hit like right away sometimes, so lost of
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: a couple points of value on that one. I don't
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: really have a strong read on that one, to be honest,
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: but yeah, it looks like the actual money is saying
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: under World Series would be a bloodbath in the Dodgers' favor.
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna talk about that in a second. I don't
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: necessarily disagree with you on that. You like the Clippers
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: Nashville and Washington and the Dodgers on the run line.
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: I'm not really gonna disagree with any of those. So
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: none of those are plays for me. But yeah, I
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: don't disagree with any of them. You like the under,
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: yeah or unders? Yeah? You could go under. You know,
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: you could go under in different ways. Your first half under,
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: avoid you know, free throws late in a game that
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: might be competitive, you know, whatever you want to do
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: in this one. A certain team total under maybe Warriors,
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: team total under. I'm worried about it though, because didn't
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: I say the Warriors played yesterday, Like the Warriors are
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: on a back to back, so that can kind of
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: impact the defense. I'd be worried about that under, actually,
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: just because fatigue can affect the defense. I think if
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: you're gonna play an under, I would probably be looking
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: Golden State under their team total maybe makes more sense
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: than that one, because maybe there an offense will be
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: a little bit tired as well. But I think the
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: fatigue affects the defense more. Let's go to the plays here.
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: This is gonna take way too long. You guys are
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: gonna hate this first one, but we're gonna go with
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: the Washington Wizards plus four. Here, it looks like the
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: line has already dropped from five to four on the sixersough.
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: I don't know if some of that is because of
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: the injury situation. Here where it looked like Paul George
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: might be coming back in this game, I don't think
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: he's going to now. Maybe you want to wait and
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: see if you get a bit of number on the Sixers.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: This is the deal with the NBA. Man, Like I'll
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: like a particular situation, but like something's gonna be influx
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: because a lot of times you don't know who the
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: personnel is gonna be. Like Paul George is supposed to
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: come back in this game. Embiid is gonna come back
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: in this game. He was being rested in the previous game.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: But Embiid there's something wrong with him. Man, his knee
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: is fucked, So that's part of the reason why he
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: was out in the last game. And the fact that
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: he's coming back in this game makes it basically like
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: a reverse injured player spot anyway, because the Sixers look
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: pretty good without him. Their non Embiid players are playing
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: better than Embiid anyway. Like the games that Embiid was in,
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: he wasn't their best players. So I think the fact
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: that he's coming back might kind of jar their chemistry
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: a little bit. So Embiid coming back, I'm fine with
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: fading that. If George comes back, I think he'll get
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a better line on this, So
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: I'd be fine with fading that too. If you want
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: to wait on this, maybe you'll get a better number.
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: I see seventy eight percent of the tickets on the
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: Sixers right now, eighty nine percent of the cash on them,
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: which does look like the cash is kind of agreeing
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: with the public in this one. I'm not going to
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: agree with it. I don't know if the cash is
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: gonna remain in alignment with that. But the Sixers are
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: off to a three and zho start, and I don't
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: think they're quite as good as they look. They probably
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: should have lost that game against the Celtics, even though
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: I gave that out as a play fuck you ad block,
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: I don't. Yeah, I think I'm my handicap was not
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: necessarily correct in that game against the Celtics. The Celtics
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: had the lead most of the game, including late in
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: that game, and they blew it. So that game maybe
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: a little bit misleading. Philadelphia barely got by Charlotte at home,
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: and then they played yesterday and they beat Orlando at home.
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: Orlando good team, That is a good win. But that's
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: why I kind of think this might be a bit
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: of a sandwich spot now. And it's a back to
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: back with travel. I know it's only Philly to Washington.
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: It's not a huge travel spot here travel leg but
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: they do have to go on the road to face Washington,
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: Sandwiched in between Orlando and they have Boston again next
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: and it's still the Celtics. Man, So I think if
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: you're gonna overlook one of those three teams, it's gonna
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: be the Wizards. I mean, the Wizards is still one
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: of the absolute worst teams in basketball. The Celtics are
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: still at least a team that you get up to play,
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: so and they're not as probably not as bad as
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: their record looks either. Yeah, Philly, I think they're better
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: than people think they are based on how bad they
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: were last year, but they were already starting to have
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: I think some injury problems here. I think right now
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: they're actually not as good as their three and zero
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: record looks. People are also gonna look at this and say, well, Philly,
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: they beat Charlotte by four, and Charlotte absolutely annihilated Washington.
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: So this is so easy, right, which is why I
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: think the public is just gonna be all over Philly.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: Here they're a three and oh team against a one
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: to two team, and there's that transitive property thing. And
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: here Washington's last game, they got annihilated at home by Charlotte.
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: I think people are gonna look at that and say,
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: but Philly beat Charlotte, so obviously, Philly's gonna win this
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: game by twenty points whatever. Like laying the four points
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: here looks way too easy to do with Philadelphia. I'm
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: not gonna do it. Washington. I think they're gonna be
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: in a bounce back spot. That was just an embarrassing loss. Dude,
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: you lose by twenty eight at home to the Charlotte Hornets.
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: That's just horrendous. I know, Washington, they're bad team. Washington
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: was actually favored in that game. Uh so they're not
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: considered to be that much worse than the Hornets. They
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: got blown out of the game. Washington was winning the
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: game into the third quarter and then they just completely
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: fell apart. I mean, look at what happened in this game.
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: Washington was horrible shooting in this game. Forty five point
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: one percent of the field not great, but twenty nine
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: point four percent from three. I think you're gonna see
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: some positive regression from Washington. That's kind of unsustainably bad. Yes,
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: they got dominated on the boards, they lost the turnover battle,
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: other you know, those are bad things. The rebounds are
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: really the most predictable stat and yes they're not a
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: good rebounding team. But still I don't know, man, I
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: just think this is a spot for Washington to come
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: and play with us some effort this time, put in
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: a lot of effort where I think fill it might
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: actually smack an effort here and actually not have a
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: ton of effort here. I digging into the Philly game
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: against Orlando just quickly, this was not that much of
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: a misleading result. Although Philly dominated the turnover battle, they
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: actually lost the rebound battle though Embiid was out. But
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: Embiid can't jump, so I don't know. Philly won the
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: turnover about a thirteen to seven. I mean, that was
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: a really low amount of turnovers there for Philly, So
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: even that might regress a little bit for Philly, especially
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: on the road. And Philly shot really high from three
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: point percentage in that game, forty two point four percent
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: from three, so I think there could be a little
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: bit of a regression from that standpoint as well from Philly.
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: So those are my thoughts on that. Will take Washington
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: plus the points in that one. You took Wizards first
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: quarter plus one and a half and you added the Rangers,
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: SOB what's up man? Hell? Yeah, I forgot to call
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: you up by name, man, starting slow after the win yesterday. Yeah,
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: so I agree with that as well. I agree with that.
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: I tend to not do halves, I just do full games.
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Poland, I'm assuming that you could. You could
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: do that, Uh yeah, I mean he can, he can
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: answer that, I assume. But probably off shore like stuff
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: that's off shore to us. You know, it's probably off
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: shore to you, right, they're tax that heavily. Interesting. Well,
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: the way that it gets taxed in the United States,
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: you can you can still win money on it because
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: the taxes only get taken out of your profit right now.
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: So you have, like you have to profit to get
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: taxes on it right now in the US, which is fine.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: So that's why you can still make money on it now.
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: But with the big beautiful bill that's actually gonna change
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six, which is really bad. I've talked
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: about that on the show already. This is gonna be
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: a long fucking show man. Although we only have three
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: more games to talk about or four actually, so that's fine.
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: Oh no, three, yeah, you have yeah, the the you
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: have the offline stuff. Gilbert Arenas what what about him?
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: Gilbert Arenas is he's he's doing his thing man, he's
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: a father. I like Gilbert Arenas, man, I think he
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: got uh, he got pretty screwed over in that fiasco
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: with him and Crittenton. Crittenden is way worse than Arenas. Dude, Crittenden,
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: Crittenton was involved in like an actual murder, like Arenas
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: was only involved in like the guns in the locker
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: room situation, which was just like a they were fucking
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: around basically, Crittendon actually was involved in, uh yeah, in
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: a murder where the wrong person got killed like he
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: and uh, I don't know if he was the actual
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: shooter or if it was his friend. It was with him,
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: it was one of the two, one of them. They
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: were trying to shoot somebody that stole from Crittenden, and
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: they shot the dudes like female cousin or sister instead.
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: You can go watch it. It's on Netflix. The documentary
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: about it, it's called Shooting Guards. Critten and Yeah, he's
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: way way worse than Arenas. But I think Arenas, like, yeah,
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: Arenas got screwed. I mean that derailed his career. I
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: don't think it should have. I like Arenas. Uh, the
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: league needed to set an example because Arenas was illegally
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: moving guns across state lines to like he when he
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: traveled with the team to certain states that had more
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: lax gun laws, he would buy more guns and then
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: transport them back on like the team flight back to
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: his house or whatever, which you know me, I mean,
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: I don't think that that should be illegal or whatever.
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: The league really came down on him for that too,
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: so they had to go after Arenas for that. I
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: think Crittenden got the more severe penalties though, and rightfully so,
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: but Arenas got way over penalized man. Arenas was the
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: way better of the two to But yeah, that's an
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: interesting documentary that's out there. Flat fees per bet, I
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: don't know about that. I mean here, it's just the
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: it's just the what you expect basically, and the taxes
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: get taken out of your profits. They only love NBA
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: player props. Yeah, I don't get into it at all.
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: The other play in NBA is gonna be the New
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: York Knicks minus the one and a half. The market
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: is agreeing with me on this one, at least for now.
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: They're up from a one point favorite to a two
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: point favorite. I think it's telling that the Knicks are
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: a favorite on the road at Milwaukee. The books are
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: telling you that the Knicks are the substantially, well not substantially,
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: but are the better team here as they're a road
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: favorite against the Bucks. There's not huge home court advantage
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: in the NBA, but it's probably about one to two
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: points fifty or well, it depends. In the playoffs, it's more,
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: but this isn't playoffs. Playoffs. Fifty four percent of tickets
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: seventy six percent of the cash on the Knicks, so
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: the cash is on the Knicks. I think the Knicks
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: are in a nice bounce back spot here. They're coming
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: off a whole road loss excuse to the heat with
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: one day off. That was a bad game for them.
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: They lost by eight. Knicks were a road favored in
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: this woem. If you look at what happened in this game,
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: the Knicks had a horrific shooting game in this game.
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: Do they actually out rebound in Miami and they only
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: shot thirty eight point eight percent from the field and
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: twenty seven point eight percent from three. That's not gonna
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: happen again. That's a total outlier as far as how
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: bad the Knicks were shooting in that game. I think
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: you're gonna see a lot of positive regression here that
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: was just unsustainably bad. I think they're gonna be focused
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: on Milwaukee, and I think Milwaukee's in a very bad
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: spot because even though yes they're facing the Knicks or
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: a good team Milwaukee, they're returning home and they just
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: played a really tough game at Cleveland, and they actually
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: should have lost this game way worse than they did.
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: They were getting blown out in this game in the
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: third quarter. They were down almost twenty points in the
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: third quarter of this game, and they came all the
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: way back and basically I think, yeah, they tied the
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: game in the fourth quarter, and they were almost able
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: to beat Cleveland, which would have been a huge win.
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: Six and a half point upset is what it would
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: have been. I think that's gonna hang them over Man
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: and Milwaukee really like they I mean, part of the
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: reason they could have won this game is because they
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: outshot Cleveland. Milwaukee shot over fifty percent from the field,
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: Cleveland only forty four point eight uh thirty nine point
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: four percent from three for Milwaukee and Cleveland only thirty percent,
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: So a bit of an outlier situation there as well
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: for Milwaukee. So Milwaukee actually overperformed in this game, and
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: Cleveland actually underperformed in this game. And Cleveland still won
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: the game, although Milwaukee covered. But yeah, Milwaukee actually played
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: better than they probably should have. They got out rebounded
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: in the game, Souse. That is telling as well that
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: Cleveland was able to out rebound them, So Milwaukee not
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: necessarily a good rebounding team. I think that's gonna hang
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee over a little bit. They're traveling back home. Both
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: of these teams I think have one day off. This
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: sets up a lot better than the Knicks. I like
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: this play better than the Wizards one. I'm gonna be
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: on both, but I think this one is better. I
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: kind of I kind of want to take the take
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: the Wizards one off the board, but whatever, the Knicks
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: will be the play there, and then we're gonna finish
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: it off with the college football. But I'll talk about
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: I have a college football play. Actually, we'll talk about
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: baseball though whoever said was it Sob or Nate whatever
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: one of you guys talked about this or I think
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: it was Sob talking about the Dodgers in this one.
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna agree with you that when you have an
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: eighteen and in grueling game like that last night, the
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: loser of that game, I think it's gonna be a
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: hangover spot for them coming into the next game. We
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: saw that with the famous Red Sox Yankees two thousand
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: and four alcs when the Red Sox won, you know,
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: multiple extra inning games like that, the momentum was just
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: all on the Red Sox side. After that, it's just
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: really really when you put in that much effort just
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: to fall short, it's a heartbreaking loss. Whereas and it
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: could be backbreaking, whereas for the Dodgers, you feel really relieved,
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: You're happy you got that win. I think it's it's
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: just a much much better setup for the Dodgers here.
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: Both bullpens are completely erased coming into this game. So
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: I actually think that might favor the Dodgers a little
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: bit in this one too. It's gonna favor whichever team
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: is gonna have the starter get deeper into the game, though,
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, I think that's still in question
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: which one of these players, which one of these pitchers,
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: is gonna get deeper into the game. I don't really
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: know what these teams are gonna do as far as
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: the relief pitching situation here, some of these bullpend pitchers
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: are gonna have to pitch twice. That's the only option
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: Dodgers of Kershaw. He only threw eight pitches last night.
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: He got one guy out. He came into the game
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: and everybody went crazy. They played we are young for
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: him because they know he's retiring. Even though he's not
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: one of the oldest pitchers. He's a younger than Suers are,
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: who I think pitched in the game last night. But yeah,
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: Kershaw came in to face Lucas, he got an out.
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: Uh on the left the lefty on lefty matchup there,
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: so he'd be available today if they want him. I
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: don't know how good of an idea that would be LA.
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: I mean they're a better home team as well. Both
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: of these teams are better at home, so that helps
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: LA here. LA's offense is better at home as well.
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: Toronto has the more patient offense. They're really good offense too.
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: But I think situationally, this just sets up way better
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: for LA. The starting pitching matchup, I have some reservations
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 1: about it though. Uh Shane beet for the Dodger side.
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, Shane Bieber is pitching for the Jays. He
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: was warming up and about to come into the game
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: last night, but he did not. He had a good
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: season overall, three point five to seventy R one point
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: to whip, especially considering he came back from Tommy John
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: surgery and he did not pitch that much this year,
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: so he's not burned out, so he's at least pretty fresh,
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: so that's good. The advanced analytics guys actually don't like
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: Bieber that much this year, but I don't really see why,
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: because the old school numbers that I look at, like
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: his whip and his strike at walk numbers, they all
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: look good to me, so I don't know what the
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: advanced analytics guys are really seeing. He wasn't quite as
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: good on the road though, three point nine to three
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: ROADRA hasn't gone deep into two of his three playoff outings,
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: though that's a little bit of a concern. He's been
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: mediocre in the playoffs against the Yankees in Seattle. Four
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: point three eighty RA fifteen to three strike a walk
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 1: ratio is definitely good. The era is a little bit high,
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: but the fact that he hasn't gone past three and
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: two thirds innings and two of his three outings is
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: a bit of a concern, although he's not burned out.
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: They haven't used him for more than eighty eight pitches
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: in any of his starts, so they're kind of they're
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: keeping his pitch count down to keep him from getting wrecked.
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: So that actually is helpful, and against the Dodgers historically,
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: he has actually been good. In fifty eight at bats.
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: He has a really good twenty to two strike a
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: walk ratio one ninety average a lot in five seventy
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: nine ohps against them, so he's done really well against
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers' hitters the pass. So I actually trust Bieber
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: to do okay in this game more than some people do,
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: you know, trust Otani. Glasnow was overrated last night. It's
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: a different scenario because Otani had a massive, massive game
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: last night, Like Otani played last night. For as a
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: hitter and a first base it was either no Freeman's
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: the first baseman. Buttani was dhing right. But he's still
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: bad at a whole shit ton of times. Although I
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: guess maybe you could argue that he got a little
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: bit more rest because they intentionally walked him five times,
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: so he in the extra innings. So we really didn't
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: have to do anything effort wise except for running the bases,
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: but he did try to steal a base and he
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: got thrown out at one point and over in extra innings,
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: in overtime, in extra innings. But yeah, I mean Otani
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: at least didn't put in as much effort in the
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: extra innings, but he still did play all the way
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 1: late at night there. Well, regular season, he'd be sleeping, yeah,
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: but you could you could argue that for every player
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: that's involved in this game. All the players were up
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: for that entire game. They were all there at the game,
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: so I don't think any of them were sleeping like
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: they were all there, so I don't know. Uh, Bieber
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: was warming up to come into the game last night,
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: so uh so he was definitely not, uh not sleeping.
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: So uh but Otani, I mean, yeah, he might be
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: a little bit fatigued after that, although he's kind of
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: used to it. He's been pretty impressive, man. He's been
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: a grinder. Two point eight seven e RA this year,
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: one point zero four whip at home, uh, one point
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: seven to one ERA, that was really good. He's been
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: good in the playoffs two point two four ERA and
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: two starts against Phillya and Milwaukee. He hasn't pitched for
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: eleven days man, so then be theyve been keeping Otani
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: a little bit rested, so that should be helpful to him.
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: Just he hasn't made a starting pitching appearance. It's the seventeenth,
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: so that actually is helpful. Nineteen to four strike a
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, that's good. My only reservations are slightly the
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: fact that he played in that really long game last night.
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: But he also doesn't have great numbers against Toronto in
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: sixty seven at bets, twenty to six strike a walk
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 1: ratio is pretty good, but two eighty four average allowed
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: eight to twenty ops. George Springer dominates him seven fifteen
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: with two home runs. Springer was in his division back
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: when he was pitching out with Anaheim, and Springer lit
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 1: him up. But most of the rest of the guys
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: don't do a ton against the well. Vlad is pretty
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: good against him, three for eight with a home run,
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: So mostly those two guys. How much should we take
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: away from that? I don't know. This is a difficult read.
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: Blue Jays are a huge underdog in the first five innings. Yeah,
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's probably not a whole lot of value
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: left on the Dodgers in this particular game, but the
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: money's still coming in on the Dodgers. The rough for
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: minus one eighty seven to minus two pot five on
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: the money line full game, tenty six percent of the tickets,
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: ninety nine percent of the cash on the Dodgers, so
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: it looks like the cash is on them. The money's
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: coming in towards the under after the total initially went
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: up to eight and a half. Very high for a
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 1: playoff game, but I don't want to trust the bullpens
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: man after the bullpens are not that good in they
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: got totally worked last night yesterday. I thought the game
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: might be potentially an over last night. But I would
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: not want to have money on the under on this
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: one because the Bullpens just could easily fuck you. And
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 1: there are some reservations about both starters here too, so
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: I would not want to deal with that sixty two
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets on the over, fifty two percent
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the under. Yeah, money coming in
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 1: towards the under. For what it's worth, I don't really
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 1: like that. I still think that it was a backbreaking
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: loss for Toronto yesterday, so I think the biggest part
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 1: of this handicap is the situation here. I would agree
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 1: with SOB and lean to the Dodgers on the run
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: line here, or I mean maybe to go over their
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: team total again, something like that, which that was a
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: winner last night if you did, if you played it
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: that way last night, I think I'm pretty sure that won.
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: So do with that when you want. I worry a
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: little bit about the pitching specific matchup numbers here, but yeah,
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 1: I mean those are my thoughts on it. You're fading Otani.
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, good luck with that. I'm I'm not gonna
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: have money on that. There's no way. I just think Toronto.
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: You might see them come out as a very just
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: you know, a defeated team after that game last night.
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: I know there's a lot left to the series, but
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: I don't think Toronto has any chance to win the
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: series at this point. I thought the Dodgers were gonna
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: win the series to begin with. They're a huge favorite
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 1: to win the series. They now lead the series. I
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: think it's pretty much over all right. And then we
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 1: got college football here. I'm gonna have one play. There's
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 1: one game I really like on the college football slate,
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: and it is not. The first game here just really horrendous.
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 1: The second game is gonna be a lot more fun.
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 1: I think the first game is UTEP in Kensas State,
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: which is also the game with the lower total, which
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 1: went up to fifty one. But it looks like the
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: money is not really agreeing with the over here seventy
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: four percent of tickets on the over, only sixty five
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over, So maybe the
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 1: under somewhat worth a look in this game. I think
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: both of these teams don't have very good offenses U
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: tep in Kennesa, so something to consider. Kanasa is up
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 1: from an eight and a half point favorite to a
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 1: ten point favorite. That might be going too far with
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 1: this Kanisau team. I mean, they're pretty new to FBS.
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: They're off to a really good start this season. They
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: have a good record, but I think the record maybe
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 1: makes them look a little bit better than they actually are.
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: They're trying to make a bowl. I mean that would
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 1: be pretty cool. I think I don't know if they're
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 1: Bowl eligible or not, but teams that get to that
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: sixth win, they can just petition FBS to get into
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 1: a bowl anyway, and usually that'll happen. So I think
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: they they'd be able to do that too. So I
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 1: think they have their sights set on that. The very
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 1: least eighty seven percent of the tickets only eighty percent
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Kannasau here, so the money is
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: pretty much saying to take the points with UTEP. I
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: don't really disagree with that. Kennisaw is one win away
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: from getting to that sixth win. I think they're gonna
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 1: get it at some point. And well, I mean, if
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: they're gonna get it, they do only have two home
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 1: games left, So if they're gonna get it, I mean
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be one of the games where they
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: do have to make sure they get it here. But
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 1: they can also win this game without covering. They just
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 1: haven't had a very impressive resume here. Their wins are
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: all against really bad teams except Louisiana Attack that was
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 1: their only like decent win. All the rest of their
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: wins are pretty bad. So again, I think Kenisau's five
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 1: and two record is a little bit misleading. They're three
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 1: to zero record in the conference. They've played a lot
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 1: of the lesser teams in the conference. Yes, UTEP also sucks,
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 1: so if they win this game, it's gonna be another
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 1: unimpressive win here. Kanisaw is playing on schedule because they
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 1: did play last Twoesday, but they do get to host
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 1: this game, so they might be fired up for that
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 1: reason because they don't usually get to host a primetime
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: game league this, although they actually actually, yeah, they haven't yet.
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: I was gonna say, I thought they did earlier in
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 1: the season. Oh, they did on Thursday against Louisiana Tech.
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: That's what I was thinking of. Yeah, so they've done
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: it once, so maybe they'll be less excited about it
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 1: this time. But they still do get to host a
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 1: primetime game here. That's an isolated game. UTEP is sitting
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: at two and five. They at least play decent defense,
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 1: even though their offense has really been a concern. They
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 1: lost their quarterback Nelson. I don't know if he's coming back.
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 1: Locklear has been pretty bad for them as their quarterback.
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 1: Uteb's coming of a win at least or Sam Houston,
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: and they do have extra time off. I don't think
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 1: that win's gonna make them over confident because that win
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 1: broke a four game lost streak for them, and Sam
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: Newston is not a very good team, so I think
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 1: UTEB will not like be in a letdown spot in
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 1: this game, I don't think, and they've had extra time
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 1: off they had to buy so they haven't play. It's
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 1: is October fifteenth on a Wednesday, so UTEP does have
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: extra rest here. So I actually think it'll be helpful
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: in this this case because I don't really consider that
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 1: went over Sam used to be going into the buy
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 1: in a really good note where the buy is gonna
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 1: like stop their momentum or anything like that. I don't
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: really think that's the case. So I do agree with
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 1: the market and that want to slight lean to UTEP,
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 1: but that's not the game that I really like. The
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: game that I really like is Texas State plus the
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 1: six and a half, and I would not take this now.
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 1: I would wait because I think you might be able
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: to get seven on this. Hopefully we can get a
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: seven on this, and I'm gonna score it as a seven.
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 1: If I see a seven today, just watch the market here.
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 1: I would still probably do it at six and a half.
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 1: Though I think you're getting value on Texas State. I
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 1: think they're really undervalued right now. Seventy five percent of
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 1: the tickets, only seventy three percent of the cash on
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 1: James Madison. JMU getting a lot of the public action
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: here because they've looked really good. And yes, they're definitely
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: a good team, man, James Madison. They can run the
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: fucking football. That's good, but it's not as good as
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: a favorite unless they're gonna be winning the game late
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: in the game, where yeah, when you're winning the game,
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: you can run the football more. It helps you put
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 1: the game away. But Texas State they can throw the football,
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 1: and I think the back door is probably gonna be
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 1: open with a team like Texas State. They can definitely score.
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: Even though James Madison I think does have the better
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 1: defense in this matchup. I'm gonna show you in a minute.
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 1: I think the spot is actually really bad for JMU.
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 1: Total in this game has dropped from fifty seven to
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 1: fifty five and a half. I do think James Madison
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 1: is somewhat correlated to the under because Texas State I
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 1: think wants to try to win and a shoot out
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 1: that worries me a little bit. But we're still getting
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 1: the home team as an underdog here. Seventy seven percent
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: of tickets, only sixty six percent of the cash on
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: the over just for reference to keep that in mind.
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 1: But the spot for James Madison I think is really
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: really bad. They're sitting at six and one in the
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: sun Belt. Yes, they have their sites. They're now Bowl eligible,
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 1: by the way, so that's a big deal for a
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 1: game like for a team like James Madison, I think
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 1: the only played in two Bowls in program history, and
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 1: they have won one already. But still one of their
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 1: goals is to get to a Bowl. I think their
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 1: actual goal is to win the sun Belt though, so
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 1: they're not done yet. Yes, they can certainly get to
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 1: the sun Belt title game, but do you really think
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 1: they're gonna have full focus on a game against the
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 1: last place team in the sun Belt West when James
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 1: Madison is the top team of the sun Belt East.
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 1: So this game doesn't matter as much because the way
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: this works is whoever wins each half of the sun
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 1: Belt gets to the sun Belt Championship. So it doesn't
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 1: really matter necessarily what they do to Texas State, although
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: yes it will be a conference loss, so it matters
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 1: a little bit. But they're bound on you geinst like
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 1: Coastal Carolina. Coastal Carolina is not a threat. They're not
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: a good team. Their three and one conference record is
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 1: misleading in my opinion. But the threats that James Madison
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 1: has to deal with are Old Dominion, who is actually
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 1: a good team. Who did that James Madison just beat
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, they just beat Old Dominion, And not only
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 1: did they beat them, but they absolutely destroyed them. And
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: this is also a Virginia rivalry here between these two teams,
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 1: So I think that makes this a letdown spot. It
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 1: wasn't a misleading result really. I mean, James Madison absolutely
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 1: hammered them. They had over three hundred more yards than
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 1: Old Dominion did, allthough Old Dominion did make it even
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 1: worse with three turnovers, So maybe you could argue the
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 1: score should have been a little bit less of a
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 1: blowout because of that. But I think James Madison, they're
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 1: gonna be in a very classic a plump and gay spot.
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 1: Let's bring that back. They're gonna be all plump and
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 1: gay after that win. Now, man, now they have to
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 1: go out on the road where they've only been on
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 1: the road three times this year. Their one loss was
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 1: on the road, and that was to Louisville. I mean,
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 1: you're not gonna knock them for that. They had one
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 1: good win on the road against Liberty. Liberty is way
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 1: down this year, though, and their other win was a
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 1: very unimpressive win on the road against Georgia State, And
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 1: since then they haven't played on the road again, so
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 1: they're not quite as good on the road. And now
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 1: they're on the road again, they're gonna lose to Texas
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 1: State and up next, by the way, they got Marshall
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 1: up next, and Marshall is really actually one of the
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 1: biggest threats now in the Sun Belt East to them.
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 1: I know Marshall didn't expect them to do anything this
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 1: year because their whole team moved over to Southern miss
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 1: But that's a big game up next against Marshall. And
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 1: it's even bigger because I don't know if anybody remembers this,
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 1: but last year James Madison probably should have been the
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 1: team to get to the Sun Belt Championship and they
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 1: lost to Marshall in double overtime in the last game
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 1: of the regular season, and that kept James Madison out
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 1: of the Sun Belt title game and put Marshall into it.
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 1: So that was a huge loss. I know the Marshall
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 1: guys are not here anymore. I was shocked by that actually,
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 1: because Marshall was just very very much an overperforming team
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 1: last year. James Madison was the favorite in that game.
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: I thought they were gonna win the game. They were
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 1: actually winning the game game for a lot of it
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 1: and winning again. I think in the fourth quarter of
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: the game. They lost it double overtime. So you know,
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 1: James Madison's gonna remember that. They're gonna have this game
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 1: circle for that reason, the game against Marshall. So I
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna look right past Texas State man. To
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 1: be honest, even though Texas State has been pretty good
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 1: in recent years, they don't look good right now record wise.
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 1: They haven't even won in the Sun Belt yet. But
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 1: I think that's gonna be extra motivation for Texas State.
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 1: Both of these teams have the same amount of time off.
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 1: James Madison hasn't played since Saturday the eighteenth, because they're
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 1: shifting to this Tuesday format now. I think that's gonna
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 1: help gonna hurt their momentum actually, because they've won five
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 1: games in a row. When you have five wins in
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 1: a row, you're coming off a big win like that,
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 1: you don't want to stop playing either, man. So I
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 1: think that might be a little bit of a momentum
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 1: stopper for James Madison having a little bit extra time
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 1: off there the long week, whereas Texas State has the
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 1: opposite going on for them. Texas State's lost two games
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 1: in a row, they have the same amount of rest.
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 1: I think that rest might help them get ready for
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 1: this game. It's an ESPN two game. Texas State's fairly
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 1: new to FBS as well, man, so they're gonna be
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 1: pumped for this. This is their first midweek game of
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 1: the season, man, and they get to host it on
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 1: ESPN two, So I think Texas State they're gonna be
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 1: up for it. They got to play in one of
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 1: these games last year, I think against Arizona State, and
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 1: they played well. But I think they're gonna be pumped
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 1: for this one too, man, And they're still looking for
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 1: their first conference win, and they're nowhere near as bad
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 1: as they look. Texas State is actually not that bad
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 1: of a team. Yes, JAMU is the better team, but
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're so much better that they actually
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 1: should be laying basically a touchdown on the road here.
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 1: I think Texas State they're kind of at the bottom
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 1: of the market right now, Maner, I think you're getting
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 1: a lot of value on them. They're not that bad.
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 1: They played okay at Arizona State earlier this year, they
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 1: crushed UTSA. Was not a bad team. Since then, I
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 1: know they've been bad. They've lost three games in a row,
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 1: all his favorites. But you look at what happened in
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 1: these games. They won the yard battle in every single
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 1: one of these games. They lost to Arkansas State as
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 1: a fourteen and a half point favorite, and if you
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 1: look at what happened in this game, they outgained Arkansas
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 1: State by well over one hundred yards in the game.
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 1: I actually have no clue how they lost this game,
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 1: to be honest. They lost the game by one no idea.
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 1: How they have way more yardage doesn't make sense. Then
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 1: they were a favorite at at home against Troy by
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 1: over touchdown and they lost this game in overtime. Probably
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 1: should have won this game as well. In this game,
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 1: Texas State outgained Troy by over one hundred yards. They
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 1: got heavily penalized, and I think that was part of
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 1: the reason why they lost this game. Probably should have
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 1: won it, lost in and overtime. Then I thought they
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 1: were gonna be in a bounce back spot against Troy,
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 1: and they actually lost again to Troy. Or no, that
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 1: was Troy excuse against Marshall. Excuse me. I thought they
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 1: were gonna be a bounced back against Marshall. They lost
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 1: to that Marshall team in double overtime. Texas State was
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 1: a favorite in this game to a road favorite, even
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 1: though they have the war record against Marshall. Os makers,
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 1: odds makers were telling you that Texas State was actually
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 1: the better team here, and they lost this game in
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 1: double overtime. And yet again, they won the yardage battle
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 1: by almost one hundred yards again and lost the turnover battle,
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 1: this time three to one. So they're minus two in turnovers.
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 1: So Texas State has lost three straight games as a favorite,
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 1: and they outgained the opponents significantly in every single one
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 1: of those games. So those were misleading results. Man, I
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 1: think you're finally gonna see some of these shift here.
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 1: I like Texas State a lot in this game. Wait
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 1: to see if you can get the full seven on
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 1: this one. Take the Texas State plus the points. Even
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 1: if you don't see it, I still think it's worth
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 1: a shot at the six and a half. The six
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 1: and a half is almost like the odds makers are
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 1: begging you to lay the points with JAMU even though
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 1: it went up from an initial opener five. It just
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 1: looks way too easy to lay under a touchdown with
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 1: the team that is kind of the hype right now
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 1: that just looks like they look like they're the way
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 1: better team. They're definitely the better team. But Texas State
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 1: is definitely under the radar right now and better than
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 1: the record looks, and it's a horrible spot for James Madison.
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 1: So take the points with Texas State in that one.
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 1: Plump and gay Karl Anthony Towns is also that that's true. Yes,
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 1: it's it's really called fat and sassy, which is the
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 1: Marco DiAngelo is from Wayser Talk. That's gonna do it
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 1: man very long because it's the frozen frenzy today. Let's
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 1: get some wins today. The plays one more time hockey
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 1: Anaheim Ducks with a split bet, partially on the plus
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 1: one and a half puck line, partially on the money line.
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 1: Make your own plus one puck line on that one
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 1: is my recommendation. New York Rangers money line, Washington Wizards
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 1: plus the points in NBA Nicks minus the one and
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 1: a half in the NBA. I like that one better
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 1: than Washington. I think the Washington one is my least favorite.
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 1: And then Texas State plus the points. Wait to see
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 1: if you get the seven. Hopefully we get the seven
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 1: on this in college football, and that's gonna do it.
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out, everybody. Learn it Towe on Instagram,
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 1: Learn it Owe on Twitter. I have massive heartburn right
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 1: now and I'm sick. I'm dying. I want to get
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 1: some wins here. Man, keep up the hot the hot
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 1: ness that we've had going on. We've been on fire, dude,
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 1: I want to keep it going. We've had very few
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 1: losing days over the last like month. Basically it's only
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 1: like a handful, like I think maybe four at most.
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 1: Let's keep it going. Yeah, covered in you because my
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 1: yuke channel on YouTube, but of course like and subscribe
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 1: here Better Off Dead. We're also on audio. I want
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 1: to change the name still, what was the name I
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 1: gave out? I already forget what was I'll have to
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 1: go back and listen to this and try to find it.
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 1: I forget what name I suggested here. Man, it's gonna
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 1: bug me now anyway. Yeah, Better off Dead, give me
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 1: a good review on iTunes or Apple Spotify. That helps
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 1: me out to like, subscribe, comment here, tell people about it.
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 1: That all helps. On YouTube here, Patreon dot com, slash
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 1: learn to Toad and you get bonus content. There's an
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 1: audio feed that I don't keep up to date well
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 1: enough and prioritize request. But I'm not doing any covers
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 1: right now because I don't have any voice. So we'll see.
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 1: Uh that's gonna do it. Hell yeah, man, thanks for
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 1: hanging out again. I appreciate it, even though I'm a
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 1: stubborn dick man, so I have I get really stubborn
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 1: about my disagreements. Load up on Toad. I was thinking
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 1: of Yeah, I told you I was thinking about maybe
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 1: Toad the line, Uh what did I? I liked whatever
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 1: I said earlier in the show today and I don't
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 1: remember what it was. Oh, Bett's Killington. I like that.
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 1: M I'm thinking about it. I'm thinking about it. But
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 1: then I have to kind of like start wearing a
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 1: suit and and be that dude. You're like, ooh, you
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 1: you think the Toronto Blue Jays will uh will cover
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 1: on the money line in the first five innings and
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 1: the something like that. That's gonna do it. Thanks for
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 1: hanging out, guys, I appreciate it. Happy Tuesday, peace for now,
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 1: M