Latest / Yaron Brook Show / FlyDubai; Iran; Diesel: Economy; Rent; More | Yaron Brook Show

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FlyDubai; Iran; Diesel: Economy; Rent; More | Yaron Brook Show · Yaron Brook Show

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Fundamental principles of freedom, rational self-interest, and individual rights. This
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: is the Yaron Brook Show.
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: All right, everybody.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Welcome. I'm back. Back home.
• 0:24
  Speaker 3: Regular studio. Regular setup. Took me a little while to
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: get used to it all. And find my bearing around
• 0:34
  Speaker 3: my own computer. But after two months, here I am.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: I'm back.
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: So we will have shows the next three weeks out
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: of my studio here.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: And then I go on the road again.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: But I expect basically a show every day for the
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: next 20 days. I think on the 21st day I fly.
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: So for the next 20 days, I think we should
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: be good.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: You know a lot. a lot going on. I'm, uh, uh,
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: doing a lot of stuff with AI.
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: So I'm trying to, trying to integrate it all, figure
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: out how to, how to get my workflow, uh, working and, uh,
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: in tune.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Uh, I had everything on my laptop.
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: Now I've got my desktop, you know, I don't want
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: to bore you with all the details, but, uh, a
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: lot of stuff happening.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Uh, but it's all, it's all good.
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: Also, uh, I expect to be able to tell you
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: in the next few weeks about significant developments on the
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: Euron AI front. I'm pretty excited about that. So a
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: lot of AI-related stuff, I think.
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: I think that's the future.
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: So that's where the investment is going in the next
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: few weeks, months.
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: Years, decades.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: I don't know how many decades, but certainly days, weeks.
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: I see some of you were just on the verge
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: of really suffering your own withdrawal syndrome, so I'm glad to.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: Have relieved you from that.
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  Speaker 3: I did do a few shows while in Madrid and
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: in London, but yeah, it's been kind of thin over
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: the last couple of weeks. Anyway, we'll remedy that with
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: the next three weeks. After that, again, you might have to,
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: you'll have some more withdrawal syndromes, I fear, because my
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: travel schedule gets unbelievably hectic from 21st, basically, of October
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  Speaker 3: until 21st.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Of November, something like that, something ridiculous like that.
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  Speaker 2: So there you go.
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  Speaker 3: All right, what else do we have? I want to
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: remind you, tomorrow at 2 p.m. East Coast time, we
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: have an AMA, so check it out.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: We'll be on here.
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: Those of you who give through Patreon or PayPal $ 25
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: or more on a monthly basis, You should have received
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: a link to be able to do a Zoom and
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: be there via video. So that would be exciting. Take
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: advantage of it. Join us via video tomorrow at 2 p.m.
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: And you can ask about anything, anything, anything. I don't
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: promise to answer, but you can ask about anything. I
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: usually answer everything. And then on Sunday, on Sunday, the
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: Iran-Nikos Dialogue will be back and we'll be discussing the
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: Yom Kippur War.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: That was a war that was.
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: Launched in October 1973. So what is it? God, I'm
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: afraid to do the calculus because it dates me.
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  Speaker 1: But anyway, I was alive and kicking in 1973.
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: And it is a war I remember well, as well
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  Speaker 3: as I remember anything, which is not great, as you know.
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  Speaker 3: But I remember it. I was 12, and I think
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: it left its mark. So we'll talk about my personal recollections,
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: but more importantly, we'll talk about what actually happened, why
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: it was a surprise, what was the intelligence failure, if
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: there was one, what was the political failure, if there
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: was one, and then.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: How did Israel.
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  Speaker 3: survive it because there were moments there in the first
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  Speaker 3: four days of.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: That war where there was real fear that it wouldn't survive.
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  Speaker 1: So we'll talk about that. Did the nukes, were the
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  Speaker 1: nukes readied for use in October 1973? We'll talk about
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: that as well. So yeah, join us. That'll be on
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  Speaker 1: Sunday at 2 p.m. East Coast time.
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  Speaker 3: Sunday, 2 p.m. East Coast time. You're on a Nikos.
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: As you know, those are fun and valuable and insightful. And,
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: you know, Nikos is a great co-host. So, yeah, definitely join.
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: How does that work? No, I don't want that. All right. Interesting.
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: All right. Show desk, export, rename, duplicate.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there are a few things that I'm, I'm trying
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  Speaker 1: to– oh, there it is.
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  Speaker 2: It popped up. Okay, that's kind of cool. Yeah, all right.
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: This is kind of cool.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: So Claude has this– it's got now– I've got a
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: desk show, right? So it's got a.
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: Dashboard right in front of me with breaking news and
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: with like what is Brent selling at right now. It's
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: just under $ 100.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: And what is the 10-year? Where is the 10-year right now?
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: That seems off, though. So now I've created this dashboard.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: What's the S & P? I should probably add gold
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: and Bitcoin to that. But anyway, a nice dashboard.
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: All of this and a lot of what I'm doing
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: with Claude made possible by Sam, who is a listener
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  Speaker 3: in Italy who has... done an amazing job programming all
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: kinds of stuff in getting Claude to do all kinds
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: of amazing stuff for me that is making these new
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: shows so much more efficient and productive. I'll be using
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: it a lot more in the days to come. We're
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: still experimenting with stuff, but the idea is to automate
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: news production as much as possible and reduce the amount
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: of time I have to spend on it so I
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: can do other stuff like write essays using you on
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  Speaker 3: AI and all kinds of other stuff.
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  Speaker 1: So thank you, Sam. uh, who is probably listening, uh,
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: from Italy. All right, let's see what else. Uh, I
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: wanted to check that number because it doesn't look right
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: to me. Um, let me see the 30, 30, 30, 30.
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that is, uh, old.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: So it isn't updated. So I'll have to figure out
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  Speaker 1: where it's getting that data. Let's look at the SMP.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: Is that the right SMP? So yeah, the SMP is
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: pretty much, it's pretty close.
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: Um, There's diesel.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: We got the price of diesel real time. Anyway, yes.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure what it is.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: Okay. But it's cool. Lots of cool toys that I
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: am playing with and to improve your.
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: Experience with the news updates. So join me every day.
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: at 3 p.m. Eastern Time, almost every day at 3 p.m.
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: Eastern Time.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: Some days it'll be different hours.
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: And next week we will also start up again, I
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: think on Saturday or on Friday, the Capitalism Critics, me
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: critiquing the critics of capitalism. We'll start that up again
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  Speaker 3: next week. So all of this is going to be
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  Speaker 3: automated and put into the calendars and made more efficient.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: Let's start with the news. I mean, an amazing story
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  Speaker 3: really out of the skies.
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  Speaker 1: Over Arabia, over Iraq and Jordan, really.
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  Speaker 3: And you've probably heard all about this, but on Wednesday,
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  Speaker 3: two days ago, a flight, Dubai flight, FZ1073. This is
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  Speaker 3: a Dubai-based airline, a flight from Dubai to Tel Aviv.
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  Speaker 3: It was a Boeing 737. suddenly dropped nearly 14,000 feet
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  Speaker 3: in under 30 seconds. And it turned out that the
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  Speaker 3: co-pilot had decided to crash the airplane. He, in order
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: to take control of the airplane, in order to crash it,
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  Speaker 3: he stabbed the captain of the flight, Captain Smith.
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  Speaker 1: Machachau, something like that, sorry, Machachau.
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  Speaker 3: Captain Smith, because he's quite a hero, so he deserves,
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  Speaker 3: might get his name right. Anyway, he stabbed him in
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  Speaker 3: the cockpit and took control and basically, you know, put
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  Speaker 3: the throttle down or whatever it is and tried to
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  Speaker 3: crash the airplane. Again, dropping 14,000 feet in under 30 seconds.
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  Speaker 3: The captain fought back. And as he fell to the ground,
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  Speaker 3: he managed to unlock the cockpit door. Now, you know,
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  Speaker 3: because of 9-11, cockpit doors are locked from inside, which
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  Speaker 3: means nobody can come in, and nobody can come in
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  Speaker 3: if the.
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  Speaker 1: Door is locked, and the door indeed was locked. This
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  Speaker 1: is what the co-pilot was counting on.
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  Speaker 3: Anyway, this courageous pilot, bleeding from his injuries, managed to
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  Speaker 3: unlock the door at the last second. in stormed a
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  Speaker 3: number of Israeli passengers who overpowered the co-pilot and.
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  Speaker 1: Tied him up.
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  Speaker 3: Now, amazing, amazing, just foresight and amazing, calm and amazing.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, just think about it.
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  Speaker 3: I don't know if you've ever been in an airplane under,
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  Speaker 3: you know, severe weather, severe turbulence. But here the plane
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  Speaker 3: is plunging. It's plunging fast.
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  Speaker 1: And yet a number of Israelis in the front of
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  Speaker 1: the plane, realizing that something was off, rushed the cockpit.
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  Speaker 3: When the door was unlocked, rushed in, and as the
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  Speaker 3: plane is nosediving, basically, subdued the co-pilot. Now, at this point,
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  Speaker 3: there's nobody flying the plane. The pilot is bleeding out
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  Speaker 3: on the floor. The co-pilot is being subdued. Nobody at
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  Speaker 3: the controls. It turns out that a plumber named Yaniv Hayun,
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  Speaker 3: a plumber.
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  Speaker 1: Who'd watched some stuff on TV about plane crashes, an accident, actually,
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  Speaker 1: you know, took the, whatever it is, throttle, is it throttle?
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  Speaker 1: Somebody who knows that, you know, and pulled it back
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  Speaker 1: and pulled the plane out of the nosedive. Now, by
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  Speaker 1: most estimates, if he had waited just a few more
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  Speaker 1: seconds or tens of seconds, it would have been over.
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  Speaker 1: The plane would have crashed to the ground and imploded, right?
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  Speaker 1: He pulled back on the stick. There we go, Jennifer.
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  Speaker 1: All right, he pulled back on the stick, whatever the
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  Speaker 1: stick is called, right?
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  Speaker 3: And, I mean, again, I just would remind you, think
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  Speaker 3: about that. The plane is.
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  Speaker 1: Nosediving, and he had the wherewithal, his reasoning capacity with him,
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  Speaker 1: to pull back on.
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  Speaker 3: The stick and stabilize the airplane, at which point, two
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  Speaker 3: pilots who were flying Dubai to Tel Aviv and were
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  Speaker 3: going to take a flight, were going to fly a
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  Speaker 3: plane back, I guess they were shifts or whatever, took
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  Speaker 3: over the control of the plane and landed it, did
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  Speaker 3: an emergency landing in.
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  Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia. So really pretty amazing overall, right?
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  Speaker 3: You've got a pilot who, in spite of bleeding out,
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  Speaker 3: is thinking enough and aware enough and conscious enough to
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  Speaker 3: unlock the door.
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  Speaker 1: You've got passengers, and you can think of how many passengers.
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  Speaker 3: Would just be passive and sitting there just waiting. You've
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  Speaker 3: got passengers who are alert enough and realizing what was
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  Speaker 3: going on to jump in within seconds, because seconds is
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  Speaker 3: all they had, to subdued the co-pilot, stabilize the plane. Luckily,
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  Speaker 3: there were two pilots on board who could then fly
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  Speaker 3: the plane and do an emergency landing in.
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  Speaker 1: An airport in Saudi Arabia.
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  Speaker 3: This is, I think, an amazing story.
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  Speaker 1: The passengers on board, about 174 passengers, almost all of
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  Speaker 1: them Israeli.
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  Speaker 3: This seems to be, by all accounts, a terrorist attack.
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  Speaker 3: The co-pilot, is said to have been radicalized by Islamism,
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  Speaker 3: at least according to Netanyahu. He said the attacker, the co-pilot,
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: had underwent Islamic radical indoctrination. The UAE is also calling
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: this a terrorist attack. No evidence yet, no suggestion yet
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  Speaker 3: about who radicalized them, which organization.
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  Speaker 1: Is it Iran? Is it Al-Qaeda or ISIS?
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  Speaker 3: Or is this just a lone gunman radicalized by an
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  Speaker 3: ideology but doing this without guidance and without organization?
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  Speaker 1: We don't know, right?
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: Now, Trump is hinting at an Iran link, but you
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: can't believe anything Trump says. So I wouldn't put any
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: weight on that yet until we have more information. the captain,
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: the Huroi captain, was then treated in the airplane before
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: it was landed by, I guess, an Israeli dentist, managed
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: to stop the bleeding and treat him.
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: He was then.
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: Put in a Saudi hospital and then transported to the UAE.
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: So he is in the UAE recovering.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: He will recover.
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  Speaker 3: There's video of him talking to the Indian Prime Minister Modi,
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: and telling him about what happened. So, again, courageous captain.
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: And then, of course, Netanyahu. Now, granted, this is maybe
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: a little cynical, but it's probably also true. Netanyahu, who's
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: running for election, and the election is coming up this month, has,
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: of course, met with the people who rest the cockpit,
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: and they're telling him their stories, and he's amazed. And he's,
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: of course, very, very engaged and wants to be seen
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: as much as possible. with the plumber, you know, basically
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: a plumber and two off-duty, yeah, plumber and other passengers.
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  Speaker 1: I'm not sure what they were, who they were.
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: But pretty amazing, pretty amazing story. Saved the lives of
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  Speaker 3: 174 people and thwarted a major terrorist attack.
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: Now, you know, who knows? Again, if this is guided,
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: if this is planned, I'm sure a lot of terrorists
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: around the world are looking at this and saying, huh, okay,
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: maybe that's the way we do it.
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: I would now want to have security screens on all
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: pilots and co-pilots in the various airlines out there, particularly
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: airlines flying Americans and Israelis, which are most likely to
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: be susceptible to terrorist attacks. You know, you can't get
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: into the cockpit, maybe dominate the cockpit itself. And then
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: the question is, how do you make it so you
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: can unlock that door, you know, without having to rely on,
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: in a sense, luck and that this guy.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: You know, this pilot managed to do it. But how
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: do you make that maybe easier?
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: From the inside, I don't know, but I think airlines,
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: security experts are going to look at this, and I
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: think the terrorists are going to look at this and say,
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: is this a new way for us to down airplanes
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: or to do another 9-11-like attack or anything like that?
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: It is kind of spooky and scary. I don't know
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: how many pilots and co-pilots can be radicalized.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: We will see.
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: I also want to note and just to warn you,
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: that there are already out there conspiracy theories about the
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: fact that this is all made up. Maybe this is
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: just an election ploy by Netanyahu. He needed something to
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: attract attention, so he made all this up. Maybe it's
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: just the Mossad doing this in order to achieve something
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: or other to portray.
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: Israelis as heroic maybe.
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: Anyway, everybody out there is pitching.
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: There's a bunch of conspiracy theories out there. I guess
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: my point is don't believe them. Not that I have
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: to tell you guys. I think you're pretty immune to those.
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: Liam says in the super chat, he says, Tucker Carlson
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: will be getting a fly Dubai hijacker story soon to
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: expose how Zionists are using this incident as a distraction
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: to continue their genocide. Yes, I expect that Tucker's already
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: working on a piece to that effect. Maybe this is
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: even part of the genocide.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: Who knows?
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: Maybe it's really the Israelis trying to crash the airplane
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: into Gaza to kill a bunch of Gazans. And maybe
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: they weren't Israelis on the plane at all. And it's really,
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: I don't know, Islamists who.
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: Saved the plane. You know, I'm sure Tucker will have
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: a creative story to tell.
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: And the Qataris will be feeding him a lot of
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: valuable information in order to do that.
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: It is interesting. You know, a lot of Israelis go
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: to Dubai.
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: Dubai is a major tourist destination for Israelis since the
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: Abraham Accords were signed in late 2020 and early 2021
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: in the.
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: Peak of COVID, if you will, COVID shutdowns.
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: There was a rush where within three months of the
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: deal between Israel and UAE, roughly 50,000 Israeli tourists had
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: visited the.
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: UAE, again, in spite of COVID.
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: And then by March of 2021, Thomas Friedman wrote that
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: at least 130,000 Israeli tourists had flown to Dubai and
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: Abu Dhabi since commercial flights had started. And of course,
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: a number of airlines are flying that route. fly Dubai,
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: you know, initially the Emirates, and Etihad were all flying,
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: as well as Israeli airlines, El Al, Al-Qaeda, and potentially
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: some others.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: Were flying the route. It was a very, very lucrative route.
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: So, you know, in the first two years of 2020
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: to 2020, to 2022, Israel's ambassador to the UAE put
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: the total of Israeli tourists coming over at 450,000. Remember,
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: this is a country of 10 million. And, you know,
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: and so that works out about 200, 250 a year. Uh,
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: this is a, you know, a lot of people, a
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: lot of people now, a lot of people will repeat
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: some of them, but business people repeat again. Uh, Israel
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: has a free trade deal with the UAE. Um, in 2023,
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: it peaked, uh, the, uh, Dubai tourism data shows 85,000
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: Israelis visiting in January and February alone. Uh, and, uh,
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: Israel was Dubai's eighth largest source market for tourists. More
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: Israelis visited Dubai than France, Kuwait, or Egypt. And again,
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: in March 2023, Israel and Dubai and UAE signed a
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: free trade agreement that only increased the number of people
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: going there. And at some point in mid-2023, it was
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: said that one million Israelis had visited UAE since the
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: Accords were signed, so a significant number of Israelis.
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: Now, after October 7th, outbound travel collapsed. You'd expect that.
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: Men are in the military and just generally don't want
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: to travel outside of Israel. In January 2024, tourism out
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: of Israel collapsed to everywhere, including to Dubai.
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: But the connection was open.
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: FlyDubai and Etihad both kept regular service to Tel Aviv,
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: even as many, many, many companies, I don't know, British
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: Air and Iberia and many others actually pulled out. Delta, United, American.
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: American still hasn't returned service to Israel since October 7th.
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: So all those companies pulled out, and yet FlyDubai and
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: Etihad kept flying. Emirates So Emirates suspended its Tel Aviv
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: flights for about two years because of security issues. Now,
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: in November 2024, a rabbi, a Chabad rabbi in the
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: UAE was murdered.
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: So there was a little hesitancy among Israelis. But then
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: they started going back again and flooding the zone. In 2025,
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: travel recovered.
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: Uh, and, uh, but again, once the war in Iran
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: in 2026 began in February, um, since Iran struck the
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: UAE with missiles, uh, the, uh, Israelis, a lot fewer Israelis, uh,
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: traveled and there was some security concerns about events in Dubai, uh, and, uh,
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: in any kind of Israeli linked businesses, uh, when the
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: security threat in Dubai. So, um, you know, the 2026
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: numbers are going to be sharply down.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: But here's the bottom line. Israelis love going to Dubai. Now,
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: I don't completely get it. I don't, you know, but.
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: Dubai is supposed to be an amazing place. I will
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: never go, so I will never see it for myself.
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: But it's supposed to be an amazing place. It's going
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: to be interesting to see if this event causes any Israelis.
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: Any kind of hesitancy about flying to Dubai, flying to
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: Dubai on any of the Emirates airlines versus on Israeli airlines?
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: We will see, right? We will see.
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: So El Al is not flying.
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: Now, a lot of Israelis are now stuck in Dubai
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: because Fly Dubai has basically stopped flying because they're trying
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: to figure out what the security issue is for them. Um, so, uh, uh,
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: other Israeli airlines are flying in and out of Dubai
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: to clear out Israeli stuck in Dubai.
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: And, uh, in the bring them home. So, um, that
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: is where we are pretty amazing. And, uh, story of,
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: of individual terrorism really. And, um, yeah, good, amazing. what
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: the passengers did. Amazing. What the pilot did, what the
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: Indian pilot did.
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: Uh, so, um, yep. All right. Let's see.
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: In the meantime, in the meantime, uh, you know, situation
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: in Iran, uh, If he first says Israelis go there
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: for two reasons, one is Texas and residency, two is.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: On the way to the east, Thailand, India, Japan. I mean,
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: I don't think that's completely true, right?
• 25:04
  Speaker 3: Because if you're flying to the east, to Thailand, India, Japan,
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: you're probably not flying fly Dubai.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: I get you fly Emirates or Etihad and then continue
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: on with them. So it's a connector. Maybe fly fly Dubai.
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: And then change airlines, maybe. But there are a lot
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: of Israelis there. in the streets of Dubai. There are
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: a lot of Israelis shopping and enjoying the fancy hotels
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: and the beautiful malls and the skyscrapers and all of
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: that in Dubai.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: So, you know, I get it. You know, some of them,
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: it's a great connector.
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: I've looked at, you know, flying to Israel from the
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: Far East and the easiest flights by far are through Dubai.
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: I just won't take them.
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: But Israelis, certainly some Israelis are doing that In terms
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: of tax exempt residency, I'll have to research that.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: It's pretty amazing to me that Israel would allow that.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: It would allow Israelis to.
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: Have a residency in Dubai and not pay Israeli taxes.
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: That does not sound like the statist Israeli tax authorities
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: that I know. But if that's possible, then cool. I'm
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: all for that. You could also do that, I guess,
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: in Cyprus or maybe in Malta. There are a number
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: of other tax havens that you could probably go to
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: if the Israeli authorities allow that. All right, so let's
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: turn now to Iran. You know, the situation in Iran
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: is interesting, right? So one, the Iranians are struggling. The
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: economy continues to deteriorate. We talked about the currency having,
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: you know, really in free fall, the economy in free fall,
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: unemployment is high, and staff living quality of life declining significantly.
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: And I think the regime is legitimately struggling. I really
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: do think this economic chokehold is working. I don't know
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: if it can bring about regime change as long as
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: the regime is willing to kill its population if they
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: get out of line, although it might encourage military units
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: or even IRGC units to ultimately rebel against the regime.
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: You know, I don't have the kind of intelligence that
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: would allow me to get info from inside Iran.
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: I know that there are people like Tulsi, you know,
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: online who are telling you that the revolution is happening.
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: It's just days away. Remember, those are also the people
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: who thought that that was happening during the bombing in
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: February and March. They're way overly optimistic. They take all
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: the good news that comes out of Iran at face
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: value or exaggerate it. They just haven't proved, I don't think,
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: to date as particularly reliable sources for what is going
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: on in Iran.
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: I admire their coverage in reporting on Iran and doing
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: it regularly and getting reports from inside Iran. I just
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: don't find their coverage particularly accurate.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: And during the war, And since the war, they've been
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: way overly optimistic.
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: They also do everything they can not to criticize Trump
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: or to criticize him, not to criticize him enough or
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: as much as he should be criticized.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: So, you know, beware listening to those other outlets about
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: just accuracy and over optimism.
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: You know, I'm not surprised overly. They're just too optimistic.
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: I mean, it's their country. They care a lot about it.
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: And they get reports on the inside that might suggest
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: that things are happening that I don't see. But so far,
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: they have systematically been way, way, way overly optimistic.
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: All right. So that's happening on the one hand. On
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: the other hand, the U.S.
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: Navy basically has being able to, to some extent, open
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: up the strait.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: I always knew they could. It just took them way.
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: Longer than it should have because I think of the
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: unwillingness to risk assets and the unwillingness to be bold
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: about it.
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: But they have. And a lot of the oil, maybe
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: 60% to 80% of the oil that was flowing out
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: of the Strait of Homo is now flowing again, whether
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: through there or through pipelines, but is coming out. In
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: the meantime, it does look like Iran is constantly attacking
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: shipping coming out, but that their capabilities have been dramatically reduced,
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: if you will, right? So, and again, I said this
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: first week of the war, the United States has the
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: capacity to dramatically reduce the Iranians' capabilities to lay mines,
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: to use boats, to use missiles.
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: You know, they could bomb and attack all their facilities
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: on the coastline. And months after the start of the war,
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps finally seems like they
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: finally have done that, so that the ability of the
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: Iranians to launch drones and anti-ship missiles has been reduced dramatically.
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: So.
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: uh, from according to confidential data reported by the New
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: York times, um, about 30 drones and 10 anti-ship missiles
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: were used last week or a week, a week on
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: average since early August. Many of them miss, many of
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: them miss, uh, according to the revolutionary guard, uh, they
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: are saying that they are attacking targets every 24 hours,
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: but they're not hitting much.
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: Uh, The U.S.
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: Navy says that at least 13 ships are hit by
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: projectiles or debris since September 10th. So that's 40 projectiles
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: a week. But over the last, what, three weeks, 13
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: ships were hit. That's just a lot of misses. Five
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: tankers were hit since September 28th. And, you know, for example,
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: a Kuwaiti tanker was hit on October 1st. On Thursday,
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: a super tanker carrying 2.5 million barrels were hit off
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: of Oman and caught fire. And today, another tanker was
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: hit by an unknown projectile leaving the street. So they're hitting.
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: Tankers are still getting out. Many more tankers now than
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: at the beginning of the war. And, you know, the
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: Navy has created a route. It doesn't look like they're
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: making a huge effort. to try to stop every projectile
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: sent to the ship. But they have created a path
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: for the tankers to get out there, and it seems
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: to be working. The Iranians, again, have not given up
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: on disrupting as much traffic as they can. They just
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: have limited resources because the U.S. has taken out much
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: of their resources.
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: Again, the U.S.
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: Military campaign against Iran was a success vis-a-vis the military
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: assets that it went after. And Iran's capabilities are diminished
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: without any question, including their capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz. Now, supposedly,
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: the U.S. has sent a third carrier group, the Theodore Roosevelt,
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: and an amphibious group, the U.S. Mackin Island. They are
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: all getting ready to leave or left Hormuz. They left
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: San Diego this week. That means up to 10,000 more
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: sailors and Marines joining about 50,000 U.S.
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: Troops already in the region. Now, it's not clear whether
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: this is reinforcement or replacement. It's not clear that as
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: the carrier group arrives, another carrier group would leave, or
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: whether we now will have three carrier strike groups in
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: the region all at the same time, which is possible.
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: The strike groups both are expected near Iran by the
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: end of November. So after the election, but quite a
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: bit after the election, maybe two to three weeks after
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: the election.
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: Trump, in a time interview that was published yesterday, basically
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: said that it's possible that renewed, large-scale renewed strikes in
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: Iran are possible after the midterm.
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: So nothing really is going to happen before the midterm.
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: But if the U.S.
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: Is going to strike hard afterwards, if that happens, then
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: this move of assets could mean that the U.S.
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: Is moving military assets into the region to make them
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: available for such strikes when and if they happen.
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: So something to watch. In the meantime, Republicans are trying
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: to go on TV. and reassure the American public that, no, no, no,
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: gas prices are going to come down, don't worry, don't worry.
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: Kevin Hassett, who is the chief economic advisor to Trump,
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: was on Fox basically saying, gas relief is coming virtually imminently,
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: virtually and imminently.
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure exactly what that means.
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: But I'm pretty sure that gas prices are not coming
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: down virtually imminently.
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: There's just nothing in play that would cause that to happen.
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: He provided, of course, no figures and certainly no date
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: for that to happen. Virtually imminently, any time now. Maybe someday. Maybe. Anyway,
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: so here we are, months in. The Navy has the
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: plans and the capability to open the strait, and they
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: could have done it in week one.
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: They waited seven months. They partially opened it, mostly opened it.
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: But they seem hesitant to continue to strike the land
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: in Iran where the continuing drones and missiles are being
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: flown from. They could probably shut that down if they
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: really wanted to. But again, Trump is hesitant to bomb
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: Iranian territory. He doesn't want them starting to lob ballistic
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: missiles into the UAE and Saudi Arabia and these other countries.
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: You know, the Iranian regime is firing on merchant ships
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: pretty much every day. It's negotiating at the same time. And,
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: you know, the Trump administration is doing nothing, really.
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: It could stop this. It isn't. The shippers, the crews,
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: and in a sense all.
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: Of us who have to suffer from higher gas prices
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: and diesel prices are suffering the consequence.
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: Now, we will see what happens after November. Possible? Maybe?
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: Who knows? It's a long time for now.
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: And in the meantime, everything is geared towards the midterms,
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: but gas and diesel prices and all these prices are
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: going to stay high.
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: So I don't know what the play is. I really
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: don't know exactly how Trump is hoping that somehow.
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: I mean, again, if he had won the war in Iran,
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: if he launches an attack today and wins it in
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: a week or two, and I think we're capable of
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: doing that if we really wanted to, then I think
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: Republicans would do a lot better in the election.
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: Americans like a winner. What they don't like is endless
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: wars that seem like we're losing. Anyway, in the meantime,
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: diesel is at, what is it, $ 6. 37? $ 6. 37. It was
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: up to 653, I guess, peak. These are record levels.
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: And this hurts. Now, I know most of you, right,
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: you are not driving a diesel automobile, I'm pretty sure.
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: But diesel is what moves things. Right? Maybe not your car.
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: But the truck that brings food to The supermarkets, the
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: tractors used to harvest, I don't know, corn right now.
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: I guess that's what they're harvesting right now.
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: The trains, the ships, the bulldozers, the backup generators here
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: in my building.
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: That's right.
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: Backup generator in my building.
• 38:00
  Speaker 3: You know, I'm really, really, really glad there were no
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: hurricanes this year so that we didn't have to massively
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: use the backup generator in this building because We would
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: have had to.
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: Load it up with diesel. It would have cost a fortune.
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: So luckily, electricity is running okay right now. But think
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: backup generators at hospitals or everywhere else. It also, I guess,
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: heats people's homes.
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: So when diesel prices go up a lot, and they
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: have gone up a lot, almost doubling, you know, everything
• 38:34
  Speaker 3: goes up. The price of everything goes up because the
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: price of the logistics, the transportation.
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: Is all going up, the.
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: Price, and either that or farmers' profit margins are being
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: slashed and farmers are taking a loss and farmers who
• 38:48
  Speaker 3: are really heavily subsidized by the government are doing, to
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: a large extent because of the tariffs and the trade war,
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: are doing even worse because of these. So, you know,
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: everybody's panicking, Washington panicking, Trump panicking, We've got midterm election.
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: If you haven't noticed, there's a midterm election coming up.
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: So anything we can do to make the American people happier,
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: we will do. So 10 days ago at the United Nations,
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: Trump said, I said, let's not send out diesel. We
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: make a lot of diesel. So he basically indicated he
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: would ban exports. of diesel keep american diesel in america
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: american diesel for americans none of those foreigners get american
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: diesel um so um You know, I guess Grassley, Senator Grassley,
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: told the president to embargo diesel the way presidents in
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: the 70s embargoed.
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: Farm products, wouldn't export farm products.
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: The 70s are not exactly a model you should want
• 39:57
  Speaker 3: to emulate in almost anything. Republicans in tight races are
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: jumping up and down. Yes, let's do it. Let's do it.
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: Let's block exports of diesel because the United States exports
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: a lot of diesel. So theoretically, if diesel stays in
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: the U.S., prices will come down. Politico supposedly reported a
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: 90-day ban was being prepared. The White House called that
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: fake news, and then Energy Secretary started asking refiners to
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: cut exports voluntarily. Voluntarily. Come on, Chris. Chris Wright, I mean,
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: don't do that.
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: Then this afternoon, the G7, European countries who are petrified
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: of a diesel export ban because that will cause diesel
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: prices in Europe to skyrocket. They depend on American diesel.
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: This afternoon, the G7 announced a deal. They're going to
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: release 100 million barrels, 100 million barrels from emergency stocks.
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: And they're going to pledge not to restrict energy exports
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: to each other. So energy flows within Europe. And supposedly,
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: this ends the export ban threat from the Trump administration.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: Now, that's good as far as it goes. Now, nobody
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: in the administration has said it's a dead deal. It's
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: a dead idea. So we'll see.
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: We'll see what happens, and we'll see if this is pursued.
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: But here's the thing about the whole export ban threat.
• 41:39
  Speaker 3: They don't understand prices. They don't understand what price controls do.
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: They don't understand what bans and central planning do.
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: Always, always, always. I talked about this last week.
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: There's always, always detrimental consequences to politicians dabbling in markets
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: in this way. Alex Epstein has an excellent post about this.
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: Check him out. AlexEpstein.substack.com.
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: And a sub stack, I think today or yesterday, about
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: the consequences of what a diesel ban would do.
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: And so I'm glad Alex is talking about this and.
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: Publishing about this because I know, for example, that, you know,
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: Trump's own energy secretary.
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: Chris Wright, reads Alex and listens to Alex. So we
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: can hope.
• 42:25
  Speaker 3: I mean, here's the point. Crude oil goes in one
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: end into the refineries in the United States. On the
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: other hand, you get gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, asphalt,
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: all of the other chemicals that are used in plastics,
• 42:45
  Speaker 3: everything else, right? They all come out of the other side.
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: No refinery is run for diesel alone. I mean, Chris
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: Wright said, America is the largest diesel exporter in the world,
• 42:57
  Speaker 3: but the same refinery that makes the diesel also makes
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: the gasoline and the jet fuel. Ban the exports of diesel.
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: the tanks fill up, storage tanks for diesel. And the
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: refineries cut their runs. And if they cut their runs,
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: they're cutting gasoline and jet fuel as well. So, yes,
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: the price of diesel might go down in the short run.
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: But what happens to.
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: These other things by the time once the storage gets
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: full within a few weeks, right, then you get, you know,
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: you are finding less diesel and therefore less gasoline, less
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: jet fuel, and you get higher prices. So, you know, Boogrum,
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: another guy who I think listens to Alex, who is
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: the Interior Secretary, said he'd consider a ban if it
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: would lower prices, but he doesn't think it would. So
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: both Chris Wright and Bergman don't actually think the two.
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: Who listened to Alex. And by the way, you should
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: sign up to Alex's Substack. Right. And then you would
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: have an in on all this stuff. Right. Now, think
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: about it. America is not one market.
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: There are finally, I mean, on the Gulf Coast, the
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: farmers in Iowa. The Northeast heats with heating oil. The
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: pipelines are full. They're pumping as much as they can.
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: And then you have a Jones Act.
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: And normally it's cheaper to ship Houston diesel to Rotterdam
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: than to Boston because federal law makes cargo moving between
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: American ports so expensive. We've talked about, you know, the
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: Jones Act, American built, American crude, and American flagged, and
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: American everything, right?
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: The administration has.
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: Waived the Jones Act temporarily through November 15th, but what
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: happens then? Why aren't they suspending it for good while
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: legislation is being written to overturn the law? So this
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: is up because we're getting a lot less refined material
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: out of the Gulf, out of the Gulf states, and
• 45:31
  Speaker 3: because of Ukraine, you know, crushing refineries in Russia. So
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: the global seaborne diesel trade has lost about 20% of
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: its volume. This is according to Alex Epstein, whose subtext
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: you should read. The Iran war took about half of that, right?
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: Ukraine strikes on the Russian refineries, took most of the rest.
• 46:01
  Speaker 3: Russia is the world's number two exporter of diesel. They
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: have now banned diesel exports through the end of October.
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: I don't know, it's probably gone into November now. Because
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: they don't have enough diesel for their own economy because
• 46:15
  Speaker 3: of the Ukrainian destruction. Now, that should have been a
• 46:21
  Speaker 3: shock that could be absorbed.
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: But it isn't. And the reason is that for 20 years,
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: the West.
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: The West, primarily Europe, but the West has been closing refineries.
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: Bjorn Lomborg points.
• 46:34
  Speaker 3: Out that Europe shut 30 refineries between 2009 and 2024.
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: Why would they do that, you ask? Hmm, net zero
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: climate change, maybe? Since 2020, by Alex's figures, Australia lost
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: half its refining capacity. Britain over 9%. The EU nearly 7%.
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: America has lost an estimated 21 million gallons a day
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: of diesel capacity since 2019. We had that number of
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: refineries closing in California. Now, all of this, as we said,
• 47:11
  Speaker 3: is net zero BS. You know, it's the movement to
• 47:17
  Speaker 3: keep it in the ground, you know, threats of windfall taxes,
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: bans on diesel vehicles, the killing of the Keystone Pipeline,
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: which would have brought you know, the kind of heavy, uh,
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: oil that, uh, the refineries in the Gulf Lake, uh, to, uh,
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: to those refineries, right?
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: Um, that was killed.
• 47:41
  Speaker 3: The last two decades we have spent telling everybody that the, uh,
• 47:46
  Speaker 3: fossil fuel industry is evil.
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: Refining is evil. It's killing us all. The world's going
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: to end. Sounds like, sounds like AI. Uh, the world's
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: going to end. And, uh, We need to shut them down. Yeah.
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: So we shut them down. We shut a bunch of
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: refineries down. And the consequence of that is.
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: We don't have enough capacity right now to take the
• 48:08
  Speaker 3: oil that's finally flowing back out of the Gulf and
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: refine it and make diesel.
• 48:17
  Speaker 4: Right?
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: So luckily, I hope there won't be a ban on
• 48:29
  Speaker 3: because it would have been devastating for the rest of
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: the world and bad for America in the long run.
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: Short run, prices come down. Long run, prices go up.
• 48:41
  Speaker 3: And the reality is that countries that import diesel from
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: the United States, Europe, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Brazil, these
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: are all countries that We have no interest in seeing
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: their prices go through the roof. By the way, California, Alaska,
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: and Hawaii still buy diesel from other parts of the world.
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: Their prices will go through the roof. Unless somehow we
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: could reroute. but that would that would mean the jones
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: act would have to be extended indefinitely.
• 49:23
  Speaker 3: Anyway who you know the consequences would have been terrible
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: i mean diesel is a 653 because the straits of
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: formos is still Mostly closed, particularly for refined product. Crude
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: seems to be flowing through, but not refined product. It's
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: because Russian refineries are burning. And it's because we have
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: not built enough. We have not built. We have shut down.
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: Unbelievable quantities of refineries. In the West. So we can't cope.
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: What should we do? Win the frigging war in Iran.
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: Open the state of Hormuz. Extend the Jones Act indefinitely.
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: Repeal the law. Cut fuel taxes. Federal and state diesel
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: taxes average around 60 cents a gallon.
• 50:29
  Speaker 3: If you want to give relief, stop taxing the fuel.
• 50:35
  Speaker 3: Get rid of the stupid biofuel mandates that clog up
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: the refineries with ethanol where it's not needed.
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: Now, that will never happen.
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: Because the farmers would object.
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: They'd freak out completely. And then bring back refineries to America.
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: Legitimize the building of refineries. Yes, in my backyard. And
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: leave prices alone. High prices create incentives. Maybe to build
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: a refinery.
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: All right. So, you know, some oil companies are going
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: to make a fortune off of this diesel stuff, right?
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: Huge profits.
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: That's good.
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: That's how markets work. The market is blazing. We've got
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: making a huge amount of money on diesel. Make more
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: diesel and ship it where it's needed the most, where
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: we're most willing to pay for it. That's our UN shortages.
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: That's our UN shortages. So hopefully the export ban is dead.
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: Hopefully this release of reserves will help. But ultimately, we
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: need to get this Iran crisis over with.
• 51:56
  Speaker 3: And I don't know, Europe needs to relearn, right, that
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: They can't shut down nuclear and shut down refineries and
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: shut down and not do fracking and not drill in
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: the North Sea and then expect somehow to have decent
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: economies and have low energy costs.
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: Europe is actively committing economic suicide. Actively. All right, talk
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: about the economy.
• 52:26
  Speaker 3: We got the September jobs report this morning. with 29,000
• 52:31
  Speaker 3: jobs added. The forecast was 84,000, so way behind below
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: the forecast. Also, July and August were revised downwards by
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: a combined 60,000 jobs, and unemployment went up to 4.2%,
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: still pretty low.
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: So, I mean, every few weeks you get different results, right?
• 52:56
  Speaker 3: It looks like the economy is doing fine, then it
• 52:58
  Speaker 3: looks like the economy is actually slowing, Then somebody says, no,
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: it's heating up again.
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: No, it's actually slow. I mean, the bottom line is
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: the economy is.
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: Managing. It's moving along. Mainly because of construction. Guess what
• 53:13
  Speaker 3: they're constructing? Data centers. 11,000 jobs created in construction from
• 53:20
  Speaker 3: data center buildup.
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: Healthcare. We're getting older. We need more people to help
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: with healthcare.
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: 17,000 jobs.
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: And a little bit on manufacturing.
• 53:30
  Speaker 2: Right? 9,000 jobs.
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: But it's just puttering along.
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: Puttering along.
• 53:41
  Speaker 3: We've got economic growth, but it's slow. It's nothing to
• 53:45
  Speaker 3: get excited about. We've also got significant price inflation. Now,
• 53:52
  Speaker 3: average hourly earnings are up 3% year over year, but
• 53:55
  Speaker 3: inflation was 3.4% year over year.
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: So real wages are actually going down.
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: One of the reasons Americans are not happy right now.
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: Now, in the past, real wages have done really, really well.
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: They're not doing really, really well right now. And the
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: cause of all this is government.
• 54:17
  Speaker 3: It's ridiculous, massive, unprecedented deficit spending, which Trump is responsible
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: for 100%, Trump and Congress. but this Republican Congress will
• 54:29
  Speaker 3: do what Trump wants. It's tariffs, and it's a war
• 54:35
  Speaker 3: that he refuses to win.
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: It's also, right?
• 54:45
  Speaker 3: Now, we have to caution with the jobs data, as always,
• 54:51
  Speaker 3: and the inflation data and all this data. These are
• 54:53
  Speaker 3: noisy numbers. They get readjusted. They get redone constantly.
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: But we have not got the greatest economy in human history.
• 55:07
  Speaker 3: We're not just blowing it out of the water, as
• 55:10
  Speaker 3: we should be given data center construction and AI investment.
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: We should be growing at 4-5%. Jobs should be increasing.
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: But not because of stupid policies, tariffs, as I said, tariffs, deficits,
• 55:32
  Speaker 3: and not winning the war. Now, one of the things
• 55:37
  Speaker 3: that's interesting is there's a study that came out recently
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: by Mike Konczal, Mike Konczal, an economist.
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: That looked at, well, I mean, we're removing immigrants.
• 55:51
  Speaker 3: We're taking into custody illegal immigrants. We're taking them away
• 55:57
  Speaker 3: from their jobs. We're shipping some of them out of
• 56:01
  Speaker 3: the country. Others were putting in detention camps. I mean,
• 56:04
  Speaker 3: wouldn't that, by taking away the immigrants, wouldn't that increase
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: the number of jobs available to Americans and wouldn't wages
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: be going up for Native Americans?
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: And the answer is no. It's no. I mean, it's
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: the problem. Most people don't understand economics.
• 56:31
  Speaker 3: Native-born unemployment is higher now than in Biden's last year.
• 56:36
  Speaker 3: Remember Biden's last year when all those illegal immigrants were
• 56:40
  Speaker 3: coming across the border? More native-born Americans were employed than
• 56:44
  Speaker 3: right now. Prime age employment rates are lower. Native-born workers
• 56:51
  Speaker 3: are doing worse, not better. and in places with more deportation,
• 56:58
  Speaker 3: native-born workers are doing worse. Immigrants are not just a
• 57:10
  Speaker 3: supply of labor, but they also demand. They rent, they buy,
• 57:16
  Speaker 3: they start businesses.
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: If you remove them from the economy, the economy shrinks.
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: This is economics 101.
• 57:39
  Speaker 3: Anyway, in the meantime, as we keep tallying the interest
• 57:44
  Speaker 3: rates going through the roof, 10-year treasury rose 0.83 points
• 57:50
  Speaker 3: in the third quarter, the biggest quarterly rise since 1994.
• 57:52
  Speaker 3: That's a long time ago.
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: It briefly hit its highest level since 2002.
• 57:59
  Speaker 3: And this is not just in the United States. This
• 58:03
  Speaker 3: is across all the G7 countries. These are the largest economies.
• 58:11
  Speaker 3: We got more debt. The more debt, the bigger the jump.
• 58:14
  Speaker 3: France saw the biggest jump in yields. Italy and Japan lost.
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: But all of them are.
• 58:25
  Speaker 3: Now significantly higher than they have been. So France in
• 58:34
  Speaker 3: particular looks really bad. The risk premium that France has
• 58:38
  Speaker 3: to pay is now 152 basis points, at 1.5% higher
• 58:45
  Speaker 3: than Germany. So France's costs to borrow are 1.52%.
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: Higher than Germany's. Same currency, both in Europe. Why?
• 58:54
  Speaker 3: Because France has default risk that's much higher than Germany.
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: And Germany's not doing that well.
• 59:01
  Speaker 3: This is the widest that gap has been since the
• 59:04
  Speaker 3: financial crisis in Europe in 2011.
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: The yield in.
• 59:10
  Speaker 3: France is about 4.9%, which is the highest since about 2002.
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: Debt in France is about 120% of GDP. And I
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: think what people are starting to price is a Le
• 59:21
  Speaker 3: Pen victory in next year's presidential election. And she has promised,
• 59:26
  Speaker 3: like all populists, to spend, spend, spend like there's no tomorrow.
• 59:33
  Speaker 3: She's promised fuel tax cuts, you know, and other tax cuts,
• 59:40
  Speaker 3: and at the same time increasing spending and not doing
• 59:43
  Speaker 3: pension reform and not doing all the reforms that are
• 59:45
  Speaker 3: needed So financial mess in Europe, Germany economy struggling, French
• 59:56
  Speaker 3: economy struggling even more, but all of Europe really is
• 59:59
  Speaker 3: struggling with debt.
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: So everybody's interest rates are going through the roof.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 3: And the consequence in the United States of interest rates
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 3: going through the roof is that mortgages in the U.S.,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 3: mortgages in the U.S.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: Are now at 7.28% this year. They're 30-year fixed.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: That's up from 7% last week and about a 1%
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 3: higher than it was last year. 15 year is 6.6.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 3: So buying a home is just become significantly more expensive. Um,
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 3: the daily index, this is from the mortgage index hits 7.6%.
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 3: This is from mortgage news daily. That's the highest since November,
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 3: 2023 in the midst of Biden inflation. Um, So, yeah,
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 3: Zillow is raised this year in forecast to 7.1 and
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 3: purchase and refinance demand at both weekend unsurprising. The higher
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 3: the mortgages, the less demand there is to buy. So
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: after decades and decades of deficit spending and no nothing
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 3: on the horizon where politicians intend to actually reduce this.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 3: reduce the spending, reduce the deficits and pay off the loans,
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 3: is finally catching up and the markets are finally pricing
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 3: that in to the cost of debt. The oil shock
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 3: seems to have woken up markets, woken up the bond vigilantes,
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: and now we're.
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: Seeing it in action. For a decade, more than a decade,
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: central banks taught governments The debt was free, 0% interest.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: No problem. You can borrow as much as you want.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: No interest payments. Well, it doesn't work that way. We're
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: all paying the bill now. Government interest payments.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: Government interest payments on the government debt are skyrocketing as
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 3: the interest rate at which they have to raise money,
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 3: to raise the debt, sell their bonds, only increases.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: Increases and increases and increases.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: And remember Secretary Besson, our Treasury Secretary, said, oh no,
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: we've got it under control. I'm going to buy back
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: the bonds and lower the interest rates. Good luck with that.
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: Never happened. Wasn't successful. Complete failure. All right, some good news.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: Rent is actually becoming more affordable. I know you.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 3: Don't believe me. Whenever I have good news, nobody believes me. Well,
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 3: nobody is an exaggeration. Some of you don't believe me.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 3: But the reality is that according to apartment list data,
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 3: rent spiked in 21-22, then stabilized, and now have fallen
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 3: back to pre-pandemic trends. Even with inflation as high as
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 3: it is. And against typical workers' hourly earnings, rent is
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 3: now more affordable than in the late 2010s. It's still
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 3: worse than in the 90s and the 2000s. But it's
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 3: nowhere near as bad as it was a few years ago.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 3: And it's back to where it was before the whole
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 3: COVID implosion.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: Now, why is that?
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 3: Why would rents become more affordable? Why are rents not
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 3: keeping up with inflation in a sense? Well, because America
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 3: just built more apartments since COVID than at any time
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 3: since the 1980s. You see, rents went up. There was
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 3: a market signal to developers to build more apartments. So
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 3: they built more apartments.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: Duh. Where did they build them? They built them in
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: places where they could, like in Austin and in Denver.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 3: And, you know, a lot of those apartments were luxury units,
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 3: but that also reduces rent at the bottom of the spectrum.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 3: The more apartments are built, the lower the rent goes.
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 3: And generally, states are loosening zoning. So homeowners can build
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 3: units in garages, attics, backyards. In California, about one in
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 3: four new housing structures last year are these kind of
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: small garages, attics, backyards, extra rooms type of thing, which
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 3: the government had restricted in the past.
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: God.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 3: That's true in Arizona, Washington, New York, as well, you know,
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 3: with California leading the way. And here's the model that
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 3: we should be kind of looking at. According to Julia
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 3: Cartwright in The Daily Economy, Tokyo, Japan, has 14.3 million people.
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 3: New York City has 8.5 million. Yet a one-bedroom rents
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: for about $ 1, 270 a month in Tokyo versus about $ 4, 400
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 3: in New York. Over 30 years, Tokyo rents have barely moved.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 3: New York rents nearly tripled. Since the 1960s, Tokyo's housing
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 3: market has nearly tripled, gone up three times. New York
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 3: grew only 20 to 30%. That's the housing stock, right?
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 3: Tokyo builds about 130,000 units a year. Even though, you know,
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 3: Japan has no population growth, it actually is shrinking. New
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 3: York City built about 50,000 in 2025.
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: That explains it.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: If you build, rents stay low. If you don't build,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 3: rents go up in areas where there's demand. Note, Tokyo's
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 3: housing stock has nearly tripled when New York's grew only
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 3: 20 to 30 percent. Now, Japan uses a nationalized, a
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 3: national standardized zones.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: And they have as a right building. If your project
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: fits the zone you build, you build with no discretionary review.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: In New York, every site has its own zoning stuff.
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 3: And then there's rezoning constantly having to be done. And
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 3: rezoning fails about 40% of the time.
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: And 27% of Manhattan falls under, or lots, fall under
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: landmark restrictions. You can't even develop them because they're a landmark.
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 3: In Japan, they have a 22-year depreciation schedule for buildings.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: In the U.S., it's 70. There's a massive tax benefit
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: in Japan.
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 3: The apartments, you know, in the United States, we regulate
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 3: the minimum size of an apartment. Well, that's much, much
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 3: larger than what is built in Tokyo. So we, through regulation,
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 3: force builders to build big apartments, relatively speaking. Tokyo has never,
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 3: it hasn't frozen rents. It just lets people build. New
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 3: York constantly talks about rent freezes and rents go up.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: And that's a choice. We can be Tokyo or we
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: can be Madrid.
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 3: So I was in Madrid and I told you about
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 3: the 87-year-old woman who was evicted from her house and
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 3: big demonstrations. We were walking to the opera on Wednesday night.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 3: And we always go see an opera in Madrid when
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 3: we're there. There's a great opera house. Really good singers
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 3: we saw. Puccini's Manon. Not my favorite Puccini. But still,
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 3: amazing singers. And it's always fun to see opera. Anyway,
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 3: we're walking to the opera house. And there's a big,
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 3: big square on the way to the opera house in
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 3: kind of the old part of Madrid. And it was
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 3: packed with thousands of people.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: And tents. Everybody was in tents. All young. And intense and.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 3: They looked like they were community organizers. They all sat
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 3: around in little groups and plotting what they were going
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 3: to do. Anyway, lots of lots of protesters trying to get, rent.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: Freezes in Madrid.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 3: As I told you, Sanchez's government passed emergency housing decrees,
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 3: an eviction freeze, short-term lease limits, automatic lease renewals, all
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 3: of that. Now, it looks like the parliament is going
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 3: to reject it. that Spain's parliament is not going to
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 3: accept the government's decrees, which would be good. But, you know,
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 3: rents in Spain are rising fast, fast, from about 8.2
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 3: euros a square meter in 2016 to 15.1 this year.
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: And that's because of a lack of building, lack of building.
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 3: So if you want to make You know, you've got
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 3: Tokyo and Austin as one model.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: Rents in Tokyo stable, in Austin, they went up and
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: then they came down. Significantly. Versus Madrid and New York,
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: where you got control and therefore high rents. All right,
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: let's see.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: I think... Let me do a few quick stories.
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 3: That are just short, and we'll do this as a
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 3: lightning round, and then we'll go to your Super Chat questions.
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 3: All right, those are the main stories I wanted to cover,
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 3: but a few quick ones.
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: Out of Israel, a few days ago, the Israeli Election Committee.
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 3: Which is made up of basically sitting politicians and weighted towards.
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: The existing government.
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 3: That committee a few days ago actually barred Arab parties,
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 3: Arab parties from running in the election. They banned both
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 3: the joint list and ROM to Arab parties.
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: And, um, Anyway, so they bought, which would have made,
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: if that would have passed, if that was the hold,
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: it would have just been horrible. Now, you know, their
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: argument is these parties don't believe in the state of
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: Israel and so on.
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 3: You know, you can make arguments, but this is so
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 3: clearly election driven, right? This is so clearly targeted at.
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: The elections in a month. This went to the court,
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: the Supreme Court. It was pretty obvious what the Supreme
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: Court would do, given that the committee is a completely
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: partisan thing. But it's a bad look for Israel to
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: have even a partisan committee ban all the other parties
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: but nobody else. The Israeli Supreme Court unanimously overturned that decision.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: It was unanimous.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 3: And they've reinstated the other parties for the election on
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 3: October 27th. This all happened very quickly. The court held
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 3: the line, and the parties, I don't think anybody doubted
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 3: that the Supreme Court would rule this. I'm glad it
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 3: was unanimous, that the ruling was unanimous.
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: All right, let's see.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 3: There's a lot of talk about investment in manufacturing in
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 3: the United States, right? So Iowa, there's talk about a
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 3: new steel plant in Iowa.
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: And Iowa, I guess, Iowa.
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 3: Congress is in session today in order to raise the
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 3: credit cap from 5% to 10% of investment for, I guess,
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 3: this is an Indian company, for investing in this steel plant.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 3: So they will be able to invest up to $ 1. 5
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 3: billion in the plant. This, of course, all just before
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 3: the midterms, not accidentally. They're rewriting state law for one
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 3: favorite company. This reminds us of the Foxconn. Remember, $ 3
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 3: billion in Wisconsin. They promised 13,000 jobs. Maybe there'll be.
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: 2,600 by 2029.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 3: This $ 15 billion steel plant is going to require all
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 3: kinds of, call it, giveaways.
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: By the state. in order to make it happen? Will
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: it even happen? Or is it just PR before an
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: election on behalf of the Trump administration? A lot of PR.
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: It's election time. There's an interesting case out of Germany.
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 3: You know, we really can't talk a lot about this,
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 3: but bank takeovers are my pet. You know, I used
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 3: to run a hedge fund that used to specialize in
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 3: bank takeovers. And there's a bank takeover going on in Germany.
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 3: And it's a hostile takeover.
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: And it's really, really, really interesting.
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 3: So maybe I'll dedicate a portion of the show one
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 3: of these days to it. Because it's a unique credit,
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 3: which is a small bank is effectively taking control of,
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 3: I think, the second largest bank in Germany, Commerzbank.
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: In spite of the fact that the German government.
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 3: Owns 13% of Commerzbank and objected to the takeover, yet
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 3: it's happened. And in a sense, it's kind of a
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 3: hostile takeover. They came in and basically bought the shares,
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 3: made a tender offer to shareholders, shareholders sold them the shares,
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 3: and the German government is really, really, really unhappy. I
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 3: love takeovers. The more hostile, the better.
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: I just did a....
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 3: A course for the Peterson Academy, which should be coming
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 3: out any day now, I think, on private equity and
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 3: venture capital. And I talk about hostile tickers there. I
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 3: also talked about hostile tickers in the class I did
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 3: on finance and in the class I did on corporations.
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 3: It keeps coming up because I think it's an important
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 3: feature of– it used to be an important feature of
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 3: American corporate finance and American– American markets, and it's why
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 3: the U.S. has done fairly well over the last 50 years.
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 3: But anyway, the government is now trying to rewrite the
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 3: rules because it doesn't like the outcome, because it wanted
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 3: to protect Commerce Bank.
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: Remember, shareholders chose to sell.
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 3: Nobody forced them. Nobody forced them. The government doesn't like
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 3: the outcome. So they're going to rewrite the rules. Now,
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 3: I don't know if that will ultimately affect the Commerce
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 3: Bank itself deal, but it will affect all future deals.
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: All right, let's see.
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 3: Oh, this is a funny one. So MLB, Major League
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 3: Baseball is just around a full season. with the ability
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 3: to challenge the umpires using basically a robotic system, AI.
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 3: Players challenged 10,557 ball and strike calls, 10,557. And 5,686
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 3: were overturned, 54%. Catchers won 59% of the challenges. Batters 49%.
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 3: Pitchers 40%. And teams learned that it's because they have
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 3: a limited number of challenges to leave the challenges for
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 3: late innings. So baseball right now, umpires still call the game.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 3: Which makes no sense because AI is better than the umpire.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 3: But technology plus the umpire does a pretty good job.
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: So, um, calls will return about 54% of the time.
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: That's a lot, I think.
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: So, half the time, when challenged, the umpire is wrong.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: That doesn't mean he's wrong 50% of the time.
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 3: Otherwise, because, you know, you're not going to challenge when
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 3: something is clear cut.
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: But, Still, it's interesting. I wonder when they'll shift to
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: a place where basically the AI get a call all
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: balls and strikes, and we keep the umpire just for
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: other kinds of judgment issues out there. So AI being
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: used in all kinds of creative ways.
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: All right. All right.
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: We will have... We will have....
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 3: You know, I've not, for those of you wondering, I've
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 3: not cut the achievement section. It's just we're going to
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 3: sprinkle it into the show. The positive stuff. We'll also do.
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: Some at the end. And I'm still playing with the
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: format to get it right. So, again, I'm working with
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: AI to generate the news stories from different websites and.
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 3: Then to choose which ones to use. I do the choosing,
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 3: but to help me format the whole thing. Anyway, we'll
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 3: work on it, make it more efficient. Hopefully you like that. That,
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 3: my friends, is the news for this Friday, October 2nd,
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 3: my first day back in my studio. I like the studio.
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: It's a good look.
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 3: Hopefully you guys like it too. Based on the Super
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 3: Chats today, you absolutely do. So I'll take that as
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 3: a good sign.
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: Um, all right, let's see. What do, what do we
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: want to do? Um, I'm just checking some stuff here. Uh,
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: was there anything else I wanted to cover?
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah. All right. I'm going to put that aside. Okay.
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: Let's go to the sip chats.
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 3: I will remind you all that we've already talked about
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 3: Alex being a.
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: Uh, being a sponsor of the show. So check out alexepstein.substack.com.
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: ARU is starting next week. I think you can still
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: sign up. If you're a graded student, you basically can
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: sign up for free, I think. I think it's $ 100,
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: but there's no tuition once you pay the $ 100 submission fee.
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: And some of you can actually apply for scholarships and
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: get scholarships up to $ 500 a month. I think I
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: previously showed this at $ 500 total.
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 3: $ 500 a month. Those of you we really want to
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 3: invest in. Ankar has a three-semester course on objectivism.
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: Check that out. I'm doing a course on Western Civilization.
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: That's going to be a lot of fun.
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 3: I'm going to spend this weekend preparing class number one,
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 3: which I'm doing on Monday.
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: Monday.
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 3: So if you want to sign up for us in Civilization,
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 3: of course, now is the time. I know Mary Elaine
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 3: has signed up for it. So sign up for it,
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 3: and I look forward to seeing you there.
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: All right. Let's jump in with.
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 2: Our Super Chats. Let me just.
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 3: Oh, I want to remind you that you can support
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 3: the show on a monthly basis through Patreon or through PayPal.
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 3: We really, really appreciate that because that, I know, The
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 3: money's coming in. You can forget about it. You know
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 3: you're trading with me. All right, let's look at the stickers.
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 3: We got some generous stickers today. Mary Alene, thank you.
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 3: Stephen Hopper, thank you. Roland, thank you.
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: Oh, and Troy. Troy, 500 Australian dollars. Thank you, Troy. Really, really,
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: really appreciate that. And I appreciate the support you've given
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: for the We the Living in Australia, that's going to
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: be fabulous, and you'll be able to see We the
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: Living in Australia.
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 2: I think you'll really enjoy it.
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: So thank you for supporting that project as well. I'll
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: let you Matthew, thank you.
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 2: Are there stickers? Are there stickers? Are there stickers? Are
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: there stickers?
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: A lot of questions, a lot of $ 20 questions today.
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: I like that. Okay, we got John and we got Andrew,
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: and that's it. That's the stickers for today.
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 3: So thank you, guys. Really appreciate the support. Um, and, um, yeah, let's, uh,
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 3: jump in. Let me just see the value proposition, the values.
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 3: So we've got Dave, who's got a three-part question that
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 3: adds up to 90 bucks. So we'll start with that
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 3: and then we'll go with the $ 50 questions.
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: Dave says, I recently visited London for the first time.
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: That's right.
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 3: We were going to meet, but we got the dates wrong.
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 3: So anyway, And given that most objectivists have said about Europe,
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 3: I was expecting a stagnant, cynical, quasi-socialist.
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: Dismal place. No! Not if you listen to your own
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 1: book show.
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: You know better than that, Dave. But that wasn't the
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: case at all.
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 3: London seemed like a very vibrant, bustling capitalist city with
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 3: tons of restaurants and successful businesses and businessmen everywhere. Much
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 3: cleaner and friendlier than New York City. Excellent customer service.
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: That's new. That's post Thatcher. New. Yeah.
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 3: Does the UK regulate small businesses less, but tax and
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 3: redistribute more? Does that explain why there's still this vibrancy
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 3: in London?
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: Well, look, so let's be clear, right?
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 3: You stayed, I think you stayed at the same hotel
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 3: I stayed in in London, right in the center of London, right?
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 3: At the entrance to Chinatown, right next to Soho, you know,
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 3: three-minute walk from Piccadilly Circus, not that far from the bookstores.
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: On Charing Cross Lane. Anyway, this is the very center,
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: the heart of London, and very much the tourist heart
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: of London.
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 3: And tourism, I mean, I was just there, just booming.
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 3: It's just booming in London. London, there's many people now
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 3: in London as ever. So that part of London is
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 3: booming and successful and prosperous. And look, in the UK,
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 3: London is doing relatively well relative to all the other
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 3: cities and rural places in the UK. London is the
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 3: financial hub of of the UK, but in spite of Brexit,
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 3: it's still the financial hub, I think, of Europe. But
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 3: it's also a massive tourist place, and that feeds it.
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 3: It's also, you know, it's a very, very, very, particularly
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 3: in that central part of London, very multi-ethnic. And the
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 3: people who come to London to open restaurants, to open
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 3: small businesses, are super ambitious. They're trying to make a
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 3: life for themselves. So, The area I stay at, again,
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 3: is very much close to Chinatown. So it's packed with
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 3: Asians and Asian restaurants of all kinds from all parts
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 3: of Asia. And these are ambitious people trying to make
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 3: a living.
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: The stores are great. The experience is great. So I
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: don't know. Maybe the U.K.
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 3: Regulates small businesses less in spite of taxing more for
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 3: things like health care, which sucks in the U.K.
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: It's also true. Once you get out of.
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 3: Central London, out of the city, And out of that
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 3: area in London, things are not quite as rosy. There
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 3: are areas in London that are really quite scary, where
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 3: you hear more Arabic than you do English. There are
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 3: places that are run down and where the business mentality
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 3: is not quite as vibrant as it is in the
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 3: center of London. So, you know, just like anywhere, there
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 3: are certain neighborhoods you wouldn't want to be at night.
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 3: But I'll tell you, this last trip in London, because
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 3: we were filming for the documentary, I visited some places
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 3: I hadn't been to or hadn't been to in a
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 3: very long time. And there's so many pretty places. Interesting,
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 3: you know, where, what's his name, where Ingalls lives. Just
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 3: a charming area in London, really pretty. The other thing
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 3: about London, filled with parks, lots and lots of parks
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 3: in London, so very, very, very green. I mean, Nikos
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 3: can tell you the story because he met me at
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 3: the hotel, at my hotel, just as I was checking
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 3: into the hotel. And look, the reality is that I
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 3: get better treatment at my hotel in London than at
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 3: any hotel in the world.
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: And almost none of the people, none of the people
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: there who are treating me this way are British.
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 3: They're all Eastern European or Southern European, Spanish, all kinds
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 3: of places around Europe.
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: I don't think any of them are actually British. And
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: the service is amazing. Amazing.
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 3: I mean, I got hugs from the manager and the
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 3: reservation manager and the head of the concierge, and it
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 3: was just a love fest over there. And Nikos was
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 3: like sitting, was looking from the side and going, what
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 3: the hell?
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: How do they know you're on? Why are they behaving
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: this way?
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 3: But, you know, and customer service is really high because
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 3: the tourist business requires that. I don't think once you
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 3: go out of the tourist areas, customer service is as good.
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 3: I don't think if you go to Manchester or Liverpool
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 3: or Birmingham or the customer service is going to be
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 3: that good, uh, or the cleanliness and everything else that
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 3: you're talking about going to be that good.
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: The other thing you failed to mention.
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 3: Dave is they are homeless everywhere in London, which is sad,
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 3: particularly if you walk along Oxford, uh, street and other places,
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 3: lots of homeless people. Um, and, uh, you know, so
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 3: there's definitely a dark side, uh, to London, but, uh, and,
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 3: and the neighborhoods, the certain neighborhoods you want to go
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 3: to on that end, the amazing parts.
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: Of London, uh, South London, way south, Dulwich, and North London, Highgate, and.
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 3: God, I forget all the neighborhoods I went to because
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 3: I did these debates, and those debates were insane.
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 1: Another area, which was just beautiful. And I mean, there's
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: so many, I mean, London has to be one of
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: the great cities in the world. Certainly one of my favorites,
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: if not my favorite.
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 3: And there's so many people, places, so many places that
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 3: You know, that I go to, oh, I've never been here.
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 3: This is amazing because it's so big and every neighborhood
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 3: has its own character. I much prefer London to Edinburgh.
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 3: Edinburgh is dreary and colder and less vibrant, less energetic.
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 3: And your customer service is not as good and less
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 3: because it's less oriented towards this tourist industry. Anyway, Dave,
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 3: you know all this because I've been saying this about
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 3: London forever.
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 1: You know, I love that city.
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 3: Plus, great museums and classical music every single night. You've
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 3: got a choice of what classical music concert you want
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 3: to go to. The sad thing about this last trip
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 3: is I didn't have.
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: Time to go to any. But usually I try to
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: go to at least one. Enric, thank you for the sticker.
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 3: Mary Elaine says, in regard to service in UK restaurants, hotels,
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 3: et cetera, I wonder if Americans tip better than locals.
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, of course we do.
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 3: Locals don't tip. Generally in Europe, locals don't tip. England,
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 3: maybe they tip a little bit, max 10%. You don't
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 3: tip more than 10% in Europe or in the UK.
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 3: And Americans, because they're used to it from home probably,
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 3: they're tipping 15%, 20%.
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, in the U.S.
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 3: Now, some restaurant expects you to tip 25%, which is ridiculous.
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 3: In Europe, 5%, 10%. In many places, you don't.
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: Expect it at all. You have to make an effort
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 1: to tip. You have to ask them. I want to
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: leave a tip.
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 3: You either leave it in cash or before you run
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 3: the credit card. I want to leave a tip, so
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 3: they have to add it to it. It's not automatic.
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 1: London's a little different.
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 3: London's more accustomed to American tourists, so they give you
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 3: the option to tip. But again, it's in the 10% range,
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 3: not in the 20% range. All right, let's go to
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 3: $ 50 questions.
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: We've got two.
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 3: One from Andrew. Oh, this is one out of two questions.
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 3: I thought on the techies who are whirling derivishes. Anyway,
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 3: the dooms regarding AI in fear, gravely warning about their
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 3: own creation.
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 1: The intellectuals have made them neurotic.
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 3: It's like they feel a prior guilt for wrecking humanity inculcated.
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: By the intellectuals. He goes on.
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 3: Dumbest of certain, the intellectual drumbeat of certain doom. They
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 3: feel ashamed, culpable before any disasters occurred. Their warnings are
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 3: a form of taking responsibility to swage an unearned guilt.
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 3: Not the only reason, but a psychological factor. Yeah, there's
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 3: no question.
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 1: You're absolutely right. They expect doom. They expect catastrophe. These
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 1: are the same people, or same general people, who are
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: yelling about climate.
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 3: Change and the end of humanity because of climate change.
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 3: You know, five years ago, 10 years ago, 20 years ago.
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 3: And there's also people who feel guilty because they're all
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 3: going to be billionaires. They feel guilty because They're more
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 3: successful and they're smarter and they're more entrepreneurial than other people.
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 3: And they've succeeded already and they're about to succeed enormously. Remember,
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 3: they created these companies as, what do you call it,
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 3: social beneficial companies or I forget the exact terminology. But
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 3: these are not shareholder wealth maximizing companies because of this
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 3: sense of guilt and We want to share it with humanity.
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 3: We want everybody to be better off. You know, and
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 3: not believing in capitalism. So they've been raised by intellectuals
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 3: to not believe in capitalism as reality.
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: You know, that we all benefit from.
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 3: But they have to take on additional responsibilities and additional
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 3: burden in order to share the goodies with other people.
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: It's all riddled with guilt.
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 3: Riddled with guilt and a suspicion of capitalism. And a
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 3: lot of it has to do with the apocalyptic nature
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 3: of modern intellectuals from Greece You know, I hate to
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 3: call Greta intellectual.
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 1: Greta's a product of the intellectuals. But it's what made
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 1: Greta a celebrity. And just the— look, this.
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 3: Is not unique to modern times. We have almost always
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 3: expected the apocalypse. Suddenly, since Jesus' day, but I think
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 3: well before Jesus, there were apocalyptic cults. But Jesus— I mean,
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 3: Christianity— was in its origins, an apocalyptic cult. You know,
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 3: the world is going to end any day now, according
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 3: to Jesus. And even Paul expected it to end any day.
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 1: And they, you know, and it continued for a long time.
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 1: The Christians believed that, no, it was happening soon. And
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 1: that mentality of, we're the last generation, we're going to
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: do it. That mentality has survived forever. the scientific revolution
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 1: and the enlightenment and all of that, and is driving
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 1: intellectuals to cause these people to feel.
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 3: Immense guilt, which is expressing itself in their apologizing before
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 3: the fact. As they're building it, right? We're sorry we're
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 3: going to kill you all, but we're going to continue
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 3: to build it. Please invest more money in it. And
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 3: please give us $ 2 trillion so we can kill you faster.
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 2: It's just kind.
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: Of mind-blowing and bizarre. But that is what's going on. Clark.
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 3: Why are techies and industry giants more influenced by lefty
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 3: academics who never produced a good or service anyone ever
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 3: wanted or needed than by Ayn Rand and objectivism? Will
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 3: the Ayn Rand Museum AIA headquarters in Austin.
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 1: Change that in 2028? I mean.
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: Because objectivism is hard.
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 3: Not hard in a sense that it's difficult to understand
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 3: and it's really, really hard. No, but hard in the
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 3: sense that it challenges in deep, significant ways. Everything they've
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 3: been taught. Everything they've been taught by their parents.
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 1: Preachers and by their parents and by their teachers and
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 1: by their kindergarten teacher and by their middle school teachers
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 1: and their high school teachers and certainly by everything they
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 1: be taught by university professors. I mean, objectivism challenges altruism,
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 1: which is just accepted as is. It challenges the epistemology
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 1: of faith, the epistemology of emotionalism, if you can call
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 1: that an epistemology. It challenges the primacy of consciousness that
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 1: so many people have. It challenges the materialism of so
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 1: many people on the left. And I think in the
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 1: AI world of materialism, because to a large extent, that's
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 1: what they are. They reject the consciousness as something unique. So...
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 1: Ayn Rand is still hard. Now, there are also a
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 1: lot of them are just not exposed to it. Or
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 1: if they are exposed to it, they're exposed to it late.
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 1: And they're exposed to it as, oh, this crazy idea
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 1: is the Ayn Rand. Whereas the conventional stuff is all
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 1: part of their education. And it's hard to compete. It's
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 1: hard to compete with. It's just part of their education.
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 1: That dominates.
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 3: Now, will the Ayn Rand Museum ARA headquarters in Austin
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 3: change that in 2028?
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 1: A little bit. A little bit.
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 3: I think the building, and it's a substantial building. I
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 3: don't know if you've seen the images, the videos. This
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 3: is a substantial presence. This is not some office building
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 3: you can connect, oh, there's the Ayn Rand offices. No,
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 3: this is a building with a garden and, you know,
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 3: it Infinity, waterfalls, and this is a gorgeous real estate project.
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 3: This is going to make it into agricultural magazines as
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 3: a real achievement.
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 1: The indoors is going to be gorgeous. The outdoors is gorgeous.
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 3: It's going to be gorgeous at night when the light
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 3: shines out of the glass windows.
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 1: The kind of glass, kind of tinted glass walls that
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 1: are there.
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 3: It's going to be a stunning, a stunning piece of
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 3: architecture that is going to be in Austin that nobody
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 3: will be able to ignore. I think that gives objectivism
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 3: some level of credibility in some people's eyes. And it
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 3: increases the number of people who experience the building who say,
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 3: I wonder who that person is.
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 1: And read the books.
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 3: Lone dissenter says, I drive by the building site a
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 3: couple of times a week.
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 1: Can't wait.
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a main thoroughfare in Austin, Texas. Martin Luther King,
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 3: you drive right by it. It's just west of campus.
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 3: Students will be walking by it. And the campus is
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 3: moving more and more west, particularly student housing. Thousands and
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 3: thousands and thousands of students are within 10-minute walk from
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 3: the facility. So yes, I think it'll have an impact.
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 3: Is it going to have a major impact?
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 4: No.
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 1: Because a thing can have a major impact. A major
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 1: impact is about ideas.
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 2: It's about philosophy.
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 1: It's about education. It's about more people reading on rent.
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 1: That will happen.
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 3: But then understanding it, well, they can take more classes
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 3: at the institute. That will be a good thing. But
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 3: no one thing is going to change everything that much. Again,
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 3: this is a radical philosophy.
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 1: Radical.
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 3: Don't underestimate how radical it is. Take Anka's course if
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 3: you don't believe it's radical. And it takes a long
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 3: time for a radical philosophy to inculcate a culture.
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 1: Arthur, given what happened with.
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 3: The 87-year-old woman in Spain, how would eviction laws work
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 3: for elderly and.
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 1: Disabled people who couldn't pay their rent under laissez-faire capitalism?
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 3: If rent was not paid, the authorities would drag them
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 3: and their belongings out of the apartment. Wouldn't this be
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 3: bad PR for law enforcement? Do you suspect private charities
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 3: would address this? Yeah, I mean, the only way to
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 3: address something like this is through private charities. Private charities
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 3: would either help supplement people's rent so that they could
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 3: afford it, or they would provide them with alternative housing.
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 1: But look, there's an alternative.
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 3: You violate somebody's property rights, force is going to be
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 3: used against it. And sometimes that will be ugly in
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 3: the sense that people won't like it. But if they understand,
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 3: and I think a culture reaches laws that capitalism will
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 3: understand it, if they understand the value of private property,
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 3: if they understand the value of abiding by contracts, I mean,
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 3: what qualifies you from walking away.
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 1: From a contract? Being poor and elderly? I mean, that
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 1: would be ridiculous. Now, it's true that these companies would probably,
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 1: and the bigger the company, the more likely it would
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 1: be that companies who rent.
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 3: Out apartments, and if they're big, they might have a
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 3: charitable piece where they would give, you know, elderly or whatever,
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 3: some leeway in terms of paying over time. But at
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 3: the end of the day, if you can't pay, you can't,
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 3: you can't occupy. So they would have to be expelled
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 3: in one way or another. Look, there's no alternative to
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 3: the fact that some people either be helped by charity
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 3: or they will suffer greatly or maybe even die under laissez-faire.
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 1: And it's, you.
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 3: Know, I don't think people will die because I think
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 3: Charity will cover it all. I don't think there'll be
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 3: a shortage of charity. There'll be a surplus of anything.
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 3: But the reality is that there's no other way. It's
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 3: either charity. It's either voluntary help. It's either somebody voluntarily helping.
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 1: Or nobody. And with all the consequences of the nobody.
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 3: And then all of us should be thinking about we're
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 3: going to be old, so we should save.
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 1: And I think people would be responsible.
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 3: Another thing is, God, if we had less of a capitalism,
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 3: we'd all be so rich, so damn rich, that these
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 3: cases would be almost non-existent. Almost non-existent. And that's the
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 3: one thing nobody ever takes into account. You wouldn't need
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 3: a lot of charity.
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 1: Because jobs would be paying so much. Because we'd be
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 1: so rich. Not your average algorithm. What are the moods?
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 1: What are moods? Are they different than standard emotions? Are
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 1: they only caused by our ideas and evaluations? Oh, God.
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 1: You know, I don't know.
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 3: I mean, my guess is that moods are an amalgamation
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 3: of emotions. They are emotions held over time. um, good mood,
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 3: bad mood. Uh, they are responses to situations that are
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 3: ultimately guided by ideas and evaluations.
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 3: So they, they are, they are emotions of a time
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 3: and they might be a combination of emotions of a time,
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 3: not just one emotion of a time. That's the best
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 3: I have, but that's a good question to ask Jim Roney.
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 2: Or, or, um, or.
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 3: One of our other psychologists or psychopistemologists who have cataloged
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 3: these things to ask Harry.
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 1: Or Gina Golan would be great. Arthur, oops.
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 2: Oh, I just answered that before.
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 1: Oh, this is a part three to that question.
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 3: Would a laissez-faire society have less sympathy for the elderly
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 3: woman evicted because the expectation would be she should have
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 3: planned her retirement better while she was young?
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, yes and no.
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 3: Accidents happen. You can plan and unforeseen things could happen,
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 3: so it would depend. Was she an irresponsible 87-year-old? Was
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 3: she a responsible 87-year-old? I think that would determine the
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 3: level of charity that would be provided to somebody like that,
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 3: the eagerness which to help her out. So having a
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 3: little bit of information about why she reached the state
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 3: where she couldn't pay her rent would be valuable in
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 3: a society in laissez-faire capitalism. Harper Campbell, it seems trying
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 3: to crash a plane isn't terrorism if Israelis are the target.
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 1: I guess not.
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 3: Well, I mean, he could have just been crazy and
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 3: committed suicide. I mean, there was a case, where was it,
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 3: in Germany? There was a case in Europe. where a
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 3: pilot slammed a plane into the side of a mountain.
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 1: And it wasn't terrorism.
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 3: The guy was nuts and decided to commit suicide by
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 3: killing everybody on board.
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 1: So that can happen. There are early indications.
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 3: At least, from what the UAE and Israeli authorities are saying,
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 3: that in this case, it is motivated by.
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 1: Terror, by the goal of terrorizing.
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 3: Harper Campbell, Israel really benefits from the level of intelligence
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 3: of its enemies.
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 2: Yes, always.
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 3: And the level of courage and the level of commitment.
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 1: This is the best they can do against Israel.
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 3: Ian says there was just news that the guy was
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 3: dismissed from the Omani Airlines due to showing signs of radicalization.
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 3: And that's saying much because Oman is not exactly, you know,
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 3: Oman's not a friend of Israel. It's not part of
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 3: the Abraham Accords, for example. So why would Fly Dubai
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 3: hire this guy? And so, I mean, a lot of
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 3: thinking has to go into who do you hire and
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 3: how do you do background checks and how to make
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 3: sure the background checks are meaningful. James, if you give
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 3: someone some writings by Ayn Rand and nothing resonates or
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 3: impacts them, They are not moved in any way by
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 3: the power of her ideas and the truth that she identifies.
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 3: Do they have no soul or are not fully human? No,
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 3: I mean, you can't say they're not fully human. You
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 3: could say they're ignoring the capacities that, you know, maybe
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 3: they're not fully in focus.
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 1: Maybe they're not fully rational. Maybe they're evading. Maybe they're
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 1: super ignorant.
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 3: You know, maybe their context of knowledge is such that
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 3: they can't even understand what Ayn Rand is saying.
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of possibilities. There's a lot of possibilities.
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 3: But I wouldn't just dismiss everybody as they don't have
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 3: a soul if they don't agree with Ayn Rand, even
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 3: though they've.
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 1: Read something by her.
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 3: No, I mean, there are lots of reasons why somebody
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 3: would read Ayn Rand and not get it, as hard
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 3: as it is for us to get to understand that.
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 1: Again, not having the full context.
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 3: not knowing anything about history or life, you know, or
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 3: for that matter, not being at a conceptually high enough
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 3: level to do it.
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 1: In that sense, they're not fully human. I agree with that.
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 3: They're kind of what I call the missing link. But
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 3: you have to be careful with that.
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 1: That doesn't mean they don't have rights, for example, because
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 1: they're capable of being human. Not your average algorithm. When
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 1: you leave a mark, when your.
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 3: Impact becomes someone else's fuel, is that what motivates you
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 3: to keep going?
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's certainly one of the things that motivates me
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 1: to keep going.
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 2: Absolutely.
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 3: Seeing that I have an impact on somebody, seeing that
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 3: the world has changed even a little bit by what
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 3: I'm doing. You know, that's what productivity means in my context, right?
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 3: It's not just producing stuff. You can create stuff if
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 3: nobody wants it. it's not useful. But creating useful stuff,
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 3: stuff that actually has an impact, and in my case,
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 3: that impact has to.
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 1: Be on people's lives, on people's ideas, on how they live.
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 3: So, yes, leaving a mark is part of what fuels me,
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 3: part of what keeps me going.
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 2: Okay, Augustinus.
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 3: Iran, may I suggest to view Lex Friedman's conversation with
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 3: David Heinmeier, Hanson. DHH is such an optimist, a breath
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 3: of fresh air, an AI optimist.
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 1: All right, I am writing this down.
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 2: Wait a second, let me just find my... Yeah, it's
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 2: in here, this folder.
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 1: Writing it down so that I can follow up on
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 1: that and actually do that, because.
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 2: I want to do that. Let me just....
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, AI Optimist is great.
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 3: I'm not familiar with this guy. Lex Friedman interviews are
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 3: way too long generally, but I'll check it out.
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 1: Thank you.
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 3: All right, Lone Dissenter. I use Claw to automate info
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 3: gathering for my own streams.
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 1: Tip, have it.
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 3: Include pronunciation for people's names. Save me from some on-air scopes.
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 3: That makes sense.
• 1:49:54
  Speaker 2: Thank you.
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 1: Good suggestion.
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 3: Michael, we cannot have pilots of a certain religion around
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 3: sharp objects. Yeah, I mean, sadly, it's going to become
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 3: harder and harder to differentiate between the dangerous ones and
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 3: the non-dangerous ones. Marylene says, who doesn't want to get
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 3: rid of The Jones Act. Almost everybody in Congress.
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 3: Well, the companies that build, I don't know, build American ships,
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 3: the unions that represent the workers on those ships, certain
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 3: nationalists on the right and socialists on the left, who
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 3: believe that this somehow protects American jobs, even though it
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 3: clearly does not. I'm sure there are other special interest groups,
• 1:50:52
  Speaker 3: maybe truckers, trucking companies, because they lose business. So they
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 3: might be a special interest group or pressure group that
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 3: would like to.
• 1:51:03
  Speaker 1: Preserve the Jones Act. But yeah, it's one of those
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 1: things that if you can't get rid of the Jones Act,
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 1: what are you going to get rid of?
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 2: Uh, so, uh, yeah. Let's see.
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 1: Jacob, imagine if refineries didn't get way more productive per
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 1: square foot while this happened. Great innovation happens on refining over,
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 1: in refining over the past two decades. Uh, interesting. I,
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 1: I didn't know that, uh, you know, uh, Great innovation
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 1: happened in refining.
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 2: In the last two decades. That's good to know.
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 3: Still not enough refining capabilities to deal with the crisis.
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 3: Notchavich algorithm says fear equals face everything and rise. Fear
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 3: equals face everything and rise? That seems the opposite. Fear
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 3: is the opposite of that. Not sure what you mean there.
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 1: Neop.
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 3: It's time to call out these businesses. They bought into
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 3: the idea of government help and aren't fighting back due
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 3: to the warped idea, their warped idea of capitalism. I'm
• 1:52:23
  Speaker 3: not sure which businesses you're talking about. Is this AI
• 1:52:26
  Speaker 3: or other businesses? I definitely think it's always time to
• 1:52:30
  Speaker 3: call out businesses who are eager for cronyism. NM says,
• 1:52:36
  Speaker 3: will the Atlas Prize finals be live streamed? I don't
• 1:52:40
  Speaker 3: think so, but I don't know.
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 1: I have no idea. I'll have to find out. I'll
• 1:52:44
  Speaker 1: be there.
• 1:52:44
  Speaker 3: I'm one of the judges. But I don't know if
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 3: it's going to be live streamed or not. Ron says,
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 3: why would I fly to a place like China and
• 1:52:54
  Speaker 3: not Dubai?
• 1:52:55
  Speaker 1: Oh, God. Because China's not filled with Muslims.
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 3: Some of whom I can't tell if they're Islamists or
• 1:53:05
  Speaker 3: just regular Muslims.
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 1: I'm not on a.
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 3: I haven't said horrible, horrible things about China so I'm
• 1:53:13
  Speaker 3: not on a list of people who might want to
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 3: take me out in China but I am probably maybe
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 3: on somebody's list in the Muslim world somewhere and again
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 3: it's a country full of Muslims and I can't differentiate
• 1:53:26
  Speaker 3: who's an Islamist and who's not and I'm I don't
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 3: know if I'm on a list maybe it's presumption of
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 3: me to think I am but given what I've said
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 3: about Islam since 9-11 for the last 20 something years
• 1:53:39
  Speaker 3: I think it's just safer not for me to go
• 1:53:42
  Speaker 3: there And I just find.
• 1:53:44
  Speaker 1: Here's the other difference. The wealth in China, which is visible,
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 1: like the skyscrapers and stuff like that, is primarily a
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 1: product of private entrepreneurs. It's a product of real production,
• 1:54:02
  Speaker 1: real production. I'm answering Ruan's question. Real production.
• 1:54:11
  Speaker 3: The wealth in Dubai is almost all a result of
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 3: centralized control over natural resource. It's not a result of
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 3: ingenuity and innovation and the human mind and entrepreneurial activity.
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 3: It just doesn't exist. as a dominant force in Dubai.
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 3: So you go there and you see the skyscrapers, you
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 3: see the beauty, you see all of that, and there's
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 3: a certain element of fakery there. There's a certain element
• 1:54:45
  Speaker 3: of they didn't earn this.
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 1: The oil and all of that, all of that is,
• 1:54:55
  Speaker 1: you know, Western and they stole it way back. Um, so, uh,
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 1: that's my feeling about the Gulf States. It's, it's not
• 1:55:11
  Speaker 1: the wealth. Yeah.
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 3: I mean, I get it, but, but it's, it's natural resources.
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 3: There's no innovation. There's no entrepreneurship. The real entrepreneurs, the
• 1:55:19
  Speaker 3: innovators were the Western companies that developed those sites.
• 1:55:23
  Speaker 1: Whereas in China, in spite of everything.
• 1:55:29
  Speaker 3: In China, the, um, The wealth was primarily created by entrepreneurs,
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 3: and there's a lot of innovation and a lot of
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 3: production and a lot of technology and, again, entrepreneurship.
• 1:55:46
  Speaker 1: So it's earned.
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 3: The skyscrapers are earned in a way that I don't
• 1:55:50
  Speaker 3: feel like they're earned in Dubai. And maybe I'm underestimating
• 1:55:54
  Speaker 3: what's going on in Dubai.
• 1:55:55
  Speaker 1: Maybe I'm wrong. Molten Splendor, $ 50. Thank you, Molten Splendor.
• 1:56:01
  Speaker 1: Welcome back. You were missed. I appreciate that. Well, I'm
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 1: here for at least the next few weeks. Bradley.
• 1:56:12
  Speaker 3: Politicians say tourism is to blame for the housing crisis
• 1:56:16
  Speaker 3: in Spain, but it takes 7 to 12 years for
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 3: building permits, especially on the rustic land.
• 1:56:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's ridiculous.
• 1:56:23
  Speaker 3: There's plenty of space... Like in Barcelona, there are no high-rises,
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 3: or there are very few high-rises. You could build high-rises
• 1:56:32
  Speaker 3: in Barcelona and increase the amount of apartment space, condos, dramatically.
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 3: But there's very little new building, and it's not tall.
• 1:56:46
  Speaker 3: And I'm sure they have massive regulations.
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 1: About not building tall buildings. So it's not tourism. It is.
• 1:56:56
  Speaker 1: Simply the lack of building. And by the way, the
• 1:56:58
  Speaker 1: same as in London, the too many, you know, on
• 1:57:03
  Speaker 1: the outside of London, the green spaces where you can't
• 1:57:05
  Speaker 1: build in the inside of London, you can't build too tall.
• 1:57:09
  Speaker 1: There's so many restrictions and it's so difficult to build
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 1: that there's a shortage of supply and therefore prices go up.
• 1:57:19
  Speaker 1: Mary Eileen, not only did the doomsayer expect doom, they
• 1:57:23
  Speaker 1: will be disappointed when it doesn't happen.
• 1:57:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, something in them will be. On the other hand,
• 1:57:29
  Speaker 3: they won't really because, you know, they like being alive,
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 3: I think. Mary Elaine says, regarding the 87-year-old evicted woman,
• 1:57:39
  Speaker 3: unfree governments make people dependent.
• 1:57:41
  Speaker 2: Absolutely.
• 1:57:42
  Speaker 1: That's part of the point. Politicians get no credit for
• 1:57:45
  Speaker 1: private charity or individual independence.
• 1:57:47
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 1:57:48
  Speaker 3: So, yes, there's a lot less of those 87-year-olds under capitalism.
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 1: There's a lot less dependency. There's a lot more wealth.
• 1:57:57
  Speaker 1: They're richer. They save more. And there's a lot more charity.
• 1:58:04
  Speaker 1: Augustinus says, you want to watch conversation number two. What
• 1:58:07
  Speaker 1: is that? I don't know what that means. What is
• 1:58:10
  Speaker 1: a watch conversation? Is there something going on I'm not
• 1:58:14
  Speaker 1: aware of that I should.
• 1:58:15
  Speaker 2: Be aware of?
• 1:58:18
  Speaker 1: Don't know what that meant. All right, guys. You were
• 1:58:23
  Speaker 1: very generous today. Very, very generous. All the $ 20 questions,
• 1:58:27
  Speaker 1: the $ 50 questions, and, of course, Troy with the $ 500
• 1:58:31
  Speaker 1: Australian helped a massive amount. So thank you, thank you,
• 1:58:36
  Speaker 1: thank you to all of you. Really, really appreciate the support.
• 1:58:42
  Speaker 1: We will be back.
• 1:58:42
  Speaker 3: I will be back tomorrow with an AMA, Ask Me Anything.
• 1:58:46
  Speaker 3: It will be at 2 o'clock Eastern Time.
• 1:58:50
  Speaker 1: Tomorrow, and then don't forget, me and Nikos will be
• 1:58:53
  Speaker 1: talking about the Yom Kippur War.
• 1:58:55
  Speaker 3: It's a fascinating war.
• 1:58:58
  Speaker 1: It's a really, really, really interesting war.
• 1:59:00
  Speaker 3: To understand Israel, to understand the modern Middle East, you
• 1:59:04
  Speaker 3: need to know more about that war. Plus, you'll get
• 1:59:06
  Speaker 3: to know me better because I'll tell you stories about
• 1:59:08
  Speaker 3: my experiences in the Yom Kippur War.
• 1:59:11
  Speaker 1: And so, yes, join us. That will be on Sunday
• 1:59:15
  Speaker 1: at 2 p.m.
• 1:59:16
  Speaker 2: East Coast time.
• 1:59:17
  Speaker 1: Andrew says, based on.
• 1:59:19
  Speaker 4: Your feel for Ayn Rand the person, why do you
• 1:59:27
  Speaker 4: think she was more interested in being an artist than
• 1:59:30
  Speaker 4: in writing technical philosophy?
• 1:59:34
  Speaker 3: Well, because that's what she wanted. I don't know what
• 1:59:37
  Speaker 3: that means, right? She grew up wanting to be a writer.
• 1:59:43
  Speaker 1: She grew up loving stories. Her passion was stories. Her
• 1:59:48
  Speaker 1: passion was heroes. Her passion was the great man, the
• 1:59:53
  Speaker 1: heroic man. Man is a hero. Philosophy was interesting, but
• 1:59:58
  Speaker 1: the passion was that. Now, I don't know that you
• 2:00:02
  Speaker 1: can ask why. That's the decision she made when she
• 2:00:07
  Speaker 1: was very young. From the age of seven, she wanted
• 2:00:09
  Speaker 1: to be a writer. That's what she loved. That's what
• 2:00:13
  Speaker 1: she enjoyed. That's what she And she grew up on
• 2:00:15
  Speaker 1: those stories. So from a very young age, she was
• 2:00:21
  Speaker 1: oriented towards being a novelist. I think that's the best
• 2:00:27
  Speaker 1: I can do. All right, guys. Tomorrow, 2 p.m. East
• 2:00:32
  Speaker 1: Coast time. And then Sunday, 2 p.m. East Coast time.
• 2:00:37
  Speaker 1: And then Monday, we'll get back on a schedule. Monday,
• 2:00:39
  Speaker 1: I teach.
• 2:00:40
  Speaker 3: So Monday, we'll probably class or Monday, the new show
• 2:00:44
  Speaker 3: will probably be later, maybe 4 o'clock or 5 o'clock
• 2:00:48
  Speaker 3: Eastern Time.
• 2:00:50
  Speaker 1: But there will be a show, and we'll go from there.
• 2:00:53
  Speaker 2: All right, everybody.
• 2:00:54
  Speaker 1: I will see you tomorrow. Have a great weekend, if
• 2:00:59
  Speaker 1: we don't talk. Great weekend.
• 2:01:01
  Speaker 2: Bye, everybody.