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Cliff Notes - WHEN WILL THE STOCK MARKET RECOVER · Earn Your Leisure

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  Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
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  Speaker 2: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security. Stock market.
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  Speaker 2: The futures market ended relatively flat on the S and
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  Speaker 2: P How much longer before the market begins to go
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  Speaker 2: back up. This is why everybody wants to know how
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  Speaker 2: much how much more pay do people have to suffer?
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  Speaker 3: I think we have about six more weeks so the
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  Speaker 3: lumber prices are finally settling. Inflation is going to be
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  Speaker 3: bad for a little bit longer, but it's not going
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  Speaker 3: to be as bad as everyone predicted it will be.
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  Speaker 3: You can market challenge. You have about six more weeks
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  Speaker 3: of pain to go through. I think it's going to
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  Speaker 3: be very clear very soon that we're going to have
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  Speaker 3: a change in terms of political structure that will bring
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  Speaker 3: some consistency in the market because people hate to invest
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  Speaker 3: whether there's uncertainty. So when you have a clear plan,
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  Speaker 3: clear landscape of what's going to happen, it's a lot
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  Speaker 3: easier to invest. There are a couple of markets that
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  Speaker 3: you can invest in and still do incredibly will in.
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  Speaker 3: But overall, the next six weeks will be tough, and
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  Speaker 3: then after that we'll start to smooth out and then
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  Speaker 3: be okay. So I know some people like, hey, should
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  Speaker 3: I take all of my money out? No, you still
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  Speaker 3: want to invest for the long term. But for those
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  Speaker 3: of you that are trading as well, ease up a
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  Speaker 3: little bit on the downside because we aren't going to
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  Speaker 3: have these incredible moves to the downside as much, and
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  Speaker 3: then once you see has fun, start to pouring a
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  Speaker 3: little bit more money. We'll be fine. But give us
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  Speaker 3: six more weeks, eight tops, and then we'll start to
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  Speaker 3: balance out. I believe by the end of the year
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  Speaker 3: we should only be up maybe six to maybe nine
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  Speaker 3: percent on a year in terms of the S and
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  Speaker 3: P five hundred, so we'll be flat. But for traders
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  Speaker 3: is great because the volatility is absolutely has been fantastic,
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  Speaker 3: like this first quarter or so. So yeah, give us
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  Speaker 3: six weeks and we'll be all right.
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  Speaker 4: Jan Hatzeus, she's a Goldman Sachs chief economist. You predicted
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  Speaker 4: that there's a fifteen percent chance of recession within the
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  Speaker 4: next twelve months, thirty five percent chance over the next
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  Speaker 4: two years, and so that's good news.
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  Speaker 3: The chief.
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  Speaker 4: He's a Goldman sax chief economists to be at a
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  Speaker 4: predition scale. So I think last week a couple of
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  Speaker 4: firms came out and said that we're headed towards the recession,
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  Speaker 4: but they NAVI gave a percentage with it. And so
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  Speaker 4: based on this calculations, based on obviously all of the
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  Speaker 4: factors that would lead to recession, they said there's a
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  Speaker 4: fifteen percent chance in the next twelve months and for
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  Speaker 4: the next two years, thirty five percent chance of a recession.
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  Speaker 3: So if Biden gets knocked out office and we get
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  Speaker 3: a Republican president with Jack lewell go back to the
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  Speaker 3: nineteen fifties and do every election since and see the
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  Speaker 3: probability of being in a recession under a Republican leader
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  Speaker 3: versus Democratic leader. Now, some Republicans argue Democrats caused the
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  Speaker 3: mess and we get to blame. That will be the
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  Speaker 3: case this time. But during a Republican presidency, we tend
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  Speaker 3: to have more recessions. So and those are like I
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  Speaker 3: know people look at the R words like a bad word,
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  Speaker 3: those are times when you can start to build generational wealth.
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  Speaker 3: So me personally, and when happened, I was like, our
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  Speaker 3: vow to never miss out on these opportunities ever again.
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  Speaker 3: And that's when I began to like really really hone
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  Speaker 3: in and master my craft around this market. When we
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  Speaker 3: hit the recession, everyone listening, I'm begging you to do
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  Speaker 3: the same, Like learn this market like the back of
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  Speaker 3: your hand, and you won't be able to make some
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  Speaker 3: incredible money. And the crazy part I didn't know how
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  Speaker 3: to trade then, which is a gift in the curse.
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  Speaker 3: But if you can invest the long term and trade
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  Speaker 3: in a recession. You know, for those of you who
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  Speaker 3: were at Apollo, you saw Troy put put up the billboard.
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  Speaker 3: Those are some big numbers you can hit for sure
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  Speaker 3: in a recession. So enjoy it. Please enjoy it.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, new billboards do come.
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  Speaker 5: What I'm realizing too, is that a lot of these,
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  Speaker 5: a lot of these projections are actually guesses because if
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  Speaker 5: you look at the last two recessions, nobody predicted that.
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  Speaker 5: Nobody predicted it. You predicted coronavirus.
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  Speaker 3: I predicted a recession in twenty twenty, for sure. In
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  Speaker 3: twenty eighteen, I did.
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  Speaker 5: Well, why did you predict it? Because the recession was
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  Speaker 5: for a global pandemic. There was a mathematical calculation.
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  Speaker 3: Like I know people make jokes about crystal ball, but
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  Speaker 3: like when I went and did the mathematical calculations on
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  Speaker 3: when we were hit for those for the women who
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  Speaker 3: were trading with me in twenty eighteen, like I said, Hey,
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  Speaker 3: but twenty twenty and chatter if you were there, like
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  Speaker 3: I said, it was gonna.
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  Speaker 5: Hit for sure. What what mathematical equation.
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  Speaker 3: Are you used?
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  Speaker 5: I can't get that your theory huh.
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  Speaker 4: I said, we could have based it on your theory, right,
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  Speaker 4: we said every every eight years or twelve years. Right,
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  Speaker 4: we've been on an up trend, right, so at some
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  Speaker 4: point it's gonna be a pullback and somebody's gonna be
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  Speaker 4: a catastrophic.
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  Speaker 2: Based on just your Yeah.
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  Speaker 4: I mean, that's just that's just theoretical, right, Yeah, that's
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  Speaker 4: just that's just.
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  Speaker 5: Like you look at leadership though, that's yeah, that just
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  Speaker 5: happens over the court of time, That's what I'm saying.
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  Speaker 5: But I'm saying, nobody predicted.
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  Speaker 3: Earners.
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  Speaker 4: What's up? You ever walk into a small business and
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  Speaker 4: everything just works like, the checkout is fast, the seats
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  Speaker 5: Thrownavirus?
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: No that well one person I forgot her name, Oh
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  Speaker 3: my god. If you go to Tim Paris's podcast, she
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  Speaker 3: actually did predict it in twenty eighteen.
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  Speaker 4: Well it was in a book.
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  Speaker 6: What it is?
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, and it's like what we'll call it to
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  Speaker 5: what was it. Bill Gates, he gave a ted.
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  Speaker 4: Talk and that was that was scary.
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  Speaker 5: He gave a ted talk that.
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  Speaker 3: It's easy to predict something that.
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  Speaker 4: Allegen allegedly allegedly.
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  Speaker 5: All right, China, China, do any China stocks excite you?
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  Speaker 3: I actually like Ali Baba. I mean I may need
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  Speaker 3: it to.
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  Speaker 4: I'm happy you said that.
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  Speaker 3: Maybe if it drops another twenty bucks and listen, Mike
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  Speaker 3: clipped us up, nikkiy clipped us up for a five
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  Speaker 3: year old. So if you hold any lesson, it's not
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  Speaker 3: going to work well. I like Ali Baba. I want
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  Speaker 3: to like. Tencent is not there yet. There are a
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  Speaker 3: couple of the stocks there that have potential, but Ali
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  Speaker 3: Baba is the only one right now that I'm excited about.
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  Speaker 3: And if it drops like twenty dollars, a lord on
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  Speaker 3: what it is right now?
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  Speaker 4: I'm with you on Ali Baba. I want to know
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  Speaker 4: your thoughts though, Charlie, Charlie Munger. Obviously last week, if
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  Speaker 4: anybody wasn't familiar with Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, he
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  Speaker 4: sold half his state in Ali Baba over three hundred
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  Speaker 4: thousand years. Did they have any impact on your feelings
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  Speaker 4: on Ali Babo as like, all right, Charlie, don't We
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  Speaker 4: don't have to agree with I mean, one of the
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  Speaker 4: greatest investors, but we don't always have to go with
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  Speaker 4: what they what they're doing, right, I will say, follow
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  Speaker 4: what the wealthy people are doing.
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  Speaker 3: Absolutely, there's certain things he may know geopolitically. And if
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: we hit a recession, man Ali Babica fall to like
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  Speaker 3: an all time record low for a company with that
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  Speaker 3: kind of market cap, I wouldn't buy it right now.
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  Speaker 3: It's not a good price. But if it did fall
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  Speaker 3: twenty bucks lower, thirty bucks lower, I'd be happy. This
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  Speaker 3: definitely has to be a five year hold because geopolitically
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  Speaker 3: we cannot change a lot of the things that are
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  Speaker 3: happening there. But that's the one stock in China that
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  Speaker 3: I'm like, if it falls to a certain price, I mean,
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  Speaker 3: related to grab it, And I'll say this, I wouldn't
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  Speaker 3: put it in a primary account. Number two. I would
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: probably create a separate account so for my investors and traders,
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  Speaker 3: Like if you have a long term account, a swing account,
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: let's say you have like a speculation account that you
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: don't look at every day, put it in that account.
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: So because if you draw down twenty percent. You don't
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  Speaker 3: want it to bleed your main portfolio. But if you
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: just talk it away for maybe two or three years,
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  Speaker 3: you may look up one day and you may be
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: up sixty eighty percent and be happy with that with
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: the game. But I wouldn't put it like my primary
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  Speaker 3: for it all.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, I like Ali Baba for a couple of reasons.
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  Speaker 4: When I start looking at it's comparison to that in Amazon.
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  Speaker 4: Obviously we know what AWS is for Amazon, but Ali Baba,
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  Speaker 4: you know, they control large percentage of the cloud service
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  Speaker 4: in China as well, and so when they're looking at
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: percentages wise of what you know the cloud experision is
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  Speaker 4: going to look like in mainland China, they're talking about
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  Speaker 4: sixty percent growth by twenty twenty seven, and so if
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: they own I think right now they control thirty percent
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: of the cloud service on the mainland China, and so
• 11:38
  Speaker 4: if they control that large of a percentage and there's
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  Speaker 4: potential growth there, it makes sense. I like it in
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: that sense. They have almost one point three billion users
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: on their platform, which which is you know, that's that's
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: that's a large that's a large percentage of the world. Really,
• 11:57
  Speaker 4: So those two reasons like it. I'll side of it
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: being China, and obviously I've learned my lesson with you know,
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: dealing with some Chinese stocks.
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  Speaker 3: I like those two factors, yah, because the geopolitical risk
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: is the only thing that terrifies me. So for my
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: investors and traders, like, the geopolitical stuff is worse than
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: like a market maker deciding to like flood the market
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: on the short side, or even like hedge funds deciding
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: to shorten. So you're probably gonna have to hold it
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: through this most recent recession, and then if we get
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: another one in twenty four into twenty four early twenty five,
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: you don't have to hold through. But if you hold
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: it into twenty seven twenty eight, you can have a
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: nice home run. So, but investing as considerable risks. This
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: is not a crystal ball guarantee. I'm just telling you
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: you're gonna have to hold it for at least five
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: ideally ten. But yeah, if you're looking for a dark horse,
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  Speaker 3: Ali Baba is the one. I like.
• 12:53
  Speaker 5: My graduates from my school being forced bad drop drop, Mike,
• 12:59
  Speaker 5: drop drop. Did you.
• 13:12
  Speaker 6: Just realized your business needed to hire someone yesterday? How
• 13:16
  Speaker 6: can you find amazing candidates fast? Easy. Just use Indeed.
• 13:21
  Speaker 6: Stop struggling to get your job posts seen on other
• 13:24
  Speaker 6: job sites. With Indeed sponsored jobs, your post jumps to
• 13:28
  Speaker 6: the top of the page for your relevant candidates, so
• 13:31
  Speaker 6: you can reach the people you want faster. According to
• 13:34
  Speaker 6: Indeed data, sponsored jobs posted directly on Indeed have forty
• 13:38
  Speaker 6: five percent more applications than non sponsored jobs. Don't wait
• 13:41
  Speaker 6: any longer, speed up your hiring right now with Indeed,
• 13:45
  Speaker 6: and listeners of this show will get a seventy five
• 13:48
  Speaker 6: dollars sponsored job credit to get your jobs more visibility
• 13:51
  Speaker 6: at indeed dot com slash pod Katz thirteen. Just go
• 13:57
  Speaker 6: to indeed dot com slash pod k at z thirteen
• 14:01
  Speaker 6: right now and support our show by saying you heard
• 14:04
  Speaker 6: about Indeed on this podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Hiring
• 14:08
  Speaker 6: Indeed is all you need