Latest / Mic Drop Comedy / Soumaya Keynes _ Chad P. Bown - _How to Win a Trade War_ _ The Daily Show

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Soumaya Keynes _ Chad P. Bown - _How to Win a Trade War_ _ The Daily Show · Mic Drop Comedy

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: I'm glad that we chose this seating arrangement. Because you're,
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: how tall are you? Very tall. Yeah, that's what I thought.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: When it came out at first, I thought, I bet
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: this gentleman can dunk. All right. That's how I think.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: How to win a trade war. Boy, this would come
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: in handy if we found ourselves in a trade war.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Are we in a trade war?
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: We are in a trade war. With everyone? Yeah. Whole world.
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: Oh, boy.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: What? How would we know? Oh, boy. Are we winning
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: against anybody? Is Belgium? Are we beating Belgium?
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: So.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: I feel like two doctors trying not to bring bad
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: news to me. So the trade war, let's be clear.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: We launched the trade war, correct? Yes. Liberation Day launched
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: the trade war. Yes. You can speak more than one word.
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: Okay, okay, so yeah. So just over a year ago,
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump decided to ignore the most basic military strategy
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: and fight a war on all the fronts at the
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: same time.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: He launched a trade war against everybody.
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: Everybody, everybody. And yeah, there is a reason you're not
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: supposed to do that.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Would that be in here?
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: Maybe, maybe. And so, okay, so stepping back, right? The
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: problem in the global economy, there is a real trade
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: problem in the global economy, and it's to do with
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: the relationship with China. and that is a significant issue.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: And what would have been good is to work with allies, because.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry, what was the last part?
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: Because when you fight a war on all of the fronts,
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: that means your allies are also fighting a war on
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: all of the fronts. So suddenly, Europe was going to
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: try to deal with the China issue, but now it's
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: having to also deal with the US issue at the
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: same time.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: What would the metrics be of a trade war? So
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: how do we even judge whether or not... So we
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: understand the strategy should not have been to fire on
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: our allies as well as our rivals. What are the
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: metrics of a trade war? How do we judge it?
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: I think the most important one is, can you do
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: what you want? Or are you being constrained by... your
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: vulnerabilities to not be able to do what you want.
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: I think that's the biggest key to show how we're
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: losing right now.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: When we say can we do what we want, we
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: mean can we sell our products where we want to
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: sell them for the price we would like to sell
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: them at?
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: That could be part of it. It could be that
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: we want to impose policies. Maybe we're worried about certain
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: countries out there that rhyme with Shmina.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: I had a different rhyme earlier, but yours works too.
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: And maybe you want to do things like tariffs or
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: export restrictions or be a little tough on certain issues.
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: But you can't because you're worried about them standing up
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: to you in a way that you're really vulnerable. And
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: that's where we found ourselves last year. China has figured
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: out how to play a trade war, how to at
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: least win a trade war at the moment. And that's
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: because we're vulnerable to a lot of things we need
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: for our economy to work. that really China is the
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: only one out there that makes right now.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: How are we vulnerable? What is it that China does
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: that makes us vulnerable?
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: They mine, process, manufacture into magnets something called rare earths.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: So they go into cars, into defense systems. Electronics. Electronics.
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: I never thought I would know so much about rare
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: earth supply chains, but here we are.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: And essentially, China has been copying what the US has
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: been doing, I think, because the US has been restricting
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: exports to China for a while. And so the Chinese
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: just looked at what the US was doing and said, OK,
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: we can do that too.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: So we do strategic restrictions, and you talk about this
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: in the book, strategic restrictions on exports, meaning we have,
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: the one advantage we have is our chips are apparently
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: second to none. We're apparently two to three months ahead
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: of everybody else when it comes to chips. So we
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: restrict that from going directly to China. That's our leverage.
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: And the equipment that goes into make, that is used
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: to make the chips.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: But we don't do that. That's done in Taiwan, is
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: it not? So we do some of it. We also
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: work with allies.
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: So Japan and the Netherlands, you know, the Netherlands actually
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: does the fanciest pieces of these equipment. We work with
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: their government to say, hey, let's not send that stuff
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: to China.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: What is it? Is that the part where they frost
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: it at the end? Yeah. Stick your finger in it. Yeah.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: That worked. Boom. Exactly. Nice. Yeah.
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: But yeah, so we have been doing that kind of thing.
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: But for military purposes, right? We're really worried about China
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: getting hold of these super fancy chips. because it would
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: enhance their military capabilities, and that's why we didn't want
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: to send it to them. China's doing something that's very different,
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: not sending us these rare earths.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: But they did that in response. Yes, they did it
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: in response. They were not doing it prior to this. Well,
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: they have done it in the past.
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: They did this back actually in 2010 when they got
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: mad at Japan for something at the time.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: But didn't Japan at that point get themselves a backlog,
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: a stockpile of rare earths in preparation for this type
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: of thing? Did we do that before launching this trade war?
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Is that in the book? Yeah.
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: Japan got hit early, and they prepared, right? And so
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: they acted in a very extreme way to reduce their
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: reliance on China. They were ahead of the game. And
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: then when China did it to everyone else last year,
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: everyone else was looking to Japan to say, oh, well,
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: why didn't we do that?
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah. So you're saying, if I may paraphrase, we launched
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: a trade war rashly, too broadly, without proper preparation, and
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: now find ourselves mired in an event that we are
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: now losing. This is just so out of character for
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: this administration that I don't know what got into them.
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: It's almost like Trade wars are like real wars, right?
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: Logistics win real wars. You need to practice.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Well, thank God we haven't launched one of those. Let
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: me ask you a question. Do they, when you talk
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: about it as being like a real war, do they
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: war game trade? You know, I understand that they would say, like,
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: if you attack Iran, we war game it, and most
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: times they close the Strait of Hormuz, and that's known.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Do they war game trade wars? Who's they? The Illuminati?
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: You're the economists.
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: So some governments absolutely are doing this, right? And so
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: I think- They plan it.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: They plan it. What might happen? And not all of it's.
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: Just the fear of trade war and real wars. I
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: think we learned a lot of lessons during the pandemic
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: when we ran short of products and we suddenly became
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: very worried about supply chain vulnerabilities, right? We couldn't get access, yeah,
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: to toilet paper initially, but then it became things like
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: semiconductors and all of a sudden governments all around the
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: world started to look more closely at where they were
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: getting some of these essential goods from and they did
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: really sophisticated data and analytic exercises to try to figure
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: it out and then many of them have done wargaming
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: exercises to try to figure out how to minimize a
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: lot of those vulnerabilities. I'm not so sure that was
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: the approach that this administration took when they came in
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: last January.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: You're not so sure? So the idea, though, is a
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: country is looking to assess its vulnerabilities, assess its strengths,
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: and shore up those vulnerabilities to create resilience. Now, what
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: we've been told is the reason we launched this trade
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: war is to reverse the years of hollowing out manufacturing.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: But that sounds backwards to me. Wouldn't you use other
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: methodologies to increase manufacturing? before launching a trade war so
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: that you would be more resilient in that war.
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a good point.
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: So more positively, I think you have a future ahead
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: of you in policy.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: In trade wars.
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: I can launch a trade war.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Let me ask you this. So we talk about this,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: and it's very interesting because the analogy is launching a
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: real war. And we talk about this as it really
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: is a form of nationalism. Where do corporations fit into
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: the playing field in trade wars? Because we're talking you're
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: going after China, you're going after the Netherlands, you're going
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: after the EU. Multinational corporations have no allegiance. Who are
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: they in all this?
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: So I think multinationals are the soldiers in the trade war, right?
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: You know, the governments make the policy, they're the, you know,
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: the commanders, and then the companies are the ones actually
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: implementing it, right? And so if we think back to
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: those vulnerabilities, ultimately those are the product of companies responding
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: to incentives, right? For years, it was cheap, it was
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: efficient to buy your components from China, right? That was
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: where all the other manufacturing was and, you know, policymakers
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: encouraged them. And now what we're seeing is the results
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: of those companies responding to those incentives and saying, oh, wait, what?
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: The Chinese can suddenly cut us off? You know, it's also,
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: you know, U.S. car companies that are sourcing from China,
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: all those rare earths.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Are we in a position, because you said that they're
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: the soldiers in our war, it almost appears to me
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: that they're actually the soldiers that started the war. Because
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: globalization and the introduction of China into the WTO and
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: all that, capital travels, but labor can't. So when these companies,
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: who are built in Silicon Valley or wherever it is,
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: using the infrastructure of the United States, Silicon Valley doesn't
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: exist without taxpayer funding and government resources and any of
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: those things. We built them. And then they could just go,
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: these guys. We're going to where we don't have to
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: pay our workers anything. And we get to do everything.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: And we can hollow out the very country that made
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: us possible. And now we've got to fight a trade
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: war to beg them to come back? China would never
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: put up with that, would they? No. Not to go
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: on a Jeremiah, but I don't understand how they're allowed
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: to get us into this mess, and then we've got
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: to figure out a way to get out of it.
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so there's a couple things there. One, I think
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: China has very different relationships with its companies than we do.
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: And I think one of the, you know, agree, the
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: way we should think about companies these days is they're
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: really not American companies. They're multinationals. They kind of, they're themselves.
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: They're their own entities, and we can't expect them, as
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: Samaya put it, to kind of.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: Fight our enemies. battles for us, right?
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: Unless you incentivize them to, unless you create the right
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: regulations to force them to behave in certain ways, they're
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: just going to act in their own interests. And if
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: that means going and getting, you know, where workers are cheaper,
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: that's what they're going to do. And that's where they're
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: going to make things. Now, there are some benefits to
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: that though, too, right? We actually do get through international
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: trade access to much cheaper products than we would otherwise.
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: And I think we've seen today with inflation, people like
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: it when prices are lower than when prices are higher.
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: So there are lots of benefits from trade that we
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: don't completely want to eliminate. But I think we do
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: need to recognize that that does sometimes come with costs,
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: and especially costs for workers. And that has to be
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: something that's dealt with as well.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Why then are governments incentivized to always lubricate the way
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: for corporations but not workers? Why are workers just always
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: the inevitable victims of all of this, of all of
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: these shenanigans? It's hard to understand that the government wouldn't
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: put some limitations. If you want access to our infrastructure,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: you can't just screw over our workers because it's easier.
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: Part of it, I think, is the political process, right?
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: In Washington, it's much easier for the big companies to
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: organize and lobby and get the policies that they want,
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: and it's much more difficult for workers to do the
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: same thing.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: So they're not soldiers. They're mercenaries. They're Blackwater. They're really
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: not soldiers because soldiers take an oath to the nation
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: that birthed them, and they don't. So how in a
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: trade war, because how does it figure in in a
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: trade war that we can come to a better understanding
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: with these corporations of what our expectations are for them?
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: So I think what the Trump administration is trying to
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: do is it's trying to reset that bargain, right? So
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: it's saying, you know, if you want to serve U.S. customers,
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: then you've got to operate in the U.S. And it's
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: trying to do that with its trade tools. And I think...
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: the tricky reality is that it's extremely hard to force
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: these mercenary companies to do that, right? And so the
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: risk is that you end up essentially taxing imports, right?
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: So you put up tariffs, you make it harder for
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: companies to get stuff from overseas, and what those companies
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: do is they don't reshore, they just do less of everything, right?
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: It can be really, really, you know, the problem that
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: you identify is real, The challenge is getting that trade
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: war then to sort of solve that problem, right?
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: That link isn't... Yeah, no, that's exactly it. Because it
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: seems to me that, well, now we're going after China
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: and the EU, but we're still not addressing the elephant
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: in the room, which is these free agent mercenaries. So
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: let me ask you this, if this is a reasonable...
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of times that someone might say, all right,
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: we'll pay for your college, but you have to give
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: us four years of service as a teacher in these
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: certain districts. It's a way for us to get the
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: people that we need to give them something, but to
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: expect something in return. Is that the type of arrangement
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: that can be done for the tax money and infrastructure
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: that we use to build these companies? Yeah, I was
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: just going to say, there are things that I think
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: we can do to treat corporations differently, but it's not
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: through tariffs, right? Not through trade wars. This is not
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: a good way to do it.
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: No, I mean, there's been efforts over the last 10
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: years to try to get global corporations to not be
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: tax evaders, right?
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: To not go to.
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: Tax haven countries, to have them pay minimum taxes somewhere
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: in the world, right? I think that's a more effective strategy.
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: at trying to get these companies to behave and be
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: better global corporate citizens than just whacking them with tariffs,
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: because with tariffs come all the bad things. Best case scenario,
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: maybe they do bring some of that production back to
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: the United States, we get more manufacturing here, but because
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: we've made it so expensive because of tariffs for them
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: to do so, they can't hire any workers, and they
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: just have to do it all with robots. And at
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: the end of the day, how does that really help
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: us if we're really worried about the American worker?
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: You bring something up in the book that I thought
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: was really interesting about wage insurance. And it was something,
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: because my concern is that there are casualties in trade
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: wars that are, the multinationals, he's cutting deals with Apple
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: and Intel and NVIDIA and all these big players, but
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: the people that are suffering are the small businesses in America,
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: the people that don't like uncertainty and can't adjust their
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: business practices to all these fluctuating tariffs and all these
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: other changing things. But there's a program you mentioned called
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: wage insurance, and it's generally done, and correct me if
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: I'm wrong, if you lose a job in manufacturing because
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: it was globalized and you get another job that isn't
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: paying as well, the government provides you the money up
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: to that level. Is that correct?
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's a certain share of the difference, basically.
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: So they're cushioning that blow, right? So if you've just
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: lost your job, that means that you have some help, right?
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: You've got a cushion, right? And so your income doesn't fall.
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: You're also encouraged to get a new job. Maybe you
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: switch to a new industry, something that isn't so vulnerable
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: to all those globalization forces. And the evidence that we
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: have suggests that it actually can pay for itself, which
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: is kind of never heard of in economic policies. So
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: I think over the last couple of decades, economists have
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: really beaten themselves up about, you know, helping the people
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: who are left behind by globalization. And because trade tools
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: are so bad at helping the worker, really what you
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: need is better worker protections, including potentially programs like that one.
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: Right. So let me ask you a question which brings
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: up the point. What if we use that preemptively in
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: our war? So rather than wage insurance to help people
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: in areas that have been hollowed out by globalization, use
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: wage insurance to go to those companies who were going
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: to go overseas and say, we will make up at
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: least most of the difference between what you would pay
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: your workers in China and what you would pay them
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: in Kentucky. And we do that preemptively so those communities
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: never get hollowed out in the first place. Could that
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: be part of an industry and industrial policy that actually,
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: rather than how to win a trade war, a book
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: on the next book, the sequel, how to survive a
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: trade war. Would that be a possible solution? 100%.
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: There's so much more that we can do in terms
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: of adjusting the tax code to make it more beneficial
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: for companies to hire workers and not have to pay
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: sort of extraordinary taxes and other burdens and things like that.
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: And I think that's really what the emphasis should be on.
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: How does this wind down? How do we find our
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: way out of this? Do you Do you have an idea?
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: Have you seen this play out before?
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: There's a lot.
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: Of sighing going on here.
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: Well, I've got a confession, right? So it's an optimistic guide. What?
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: We go through some scenarios, right, for how we could
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: get ourselves out of this. And my confession is that
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: a lot of the happy, sunlit uplands are quite a
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: long way in the future.
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a lot of 2050 in this.
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a lot of 2050. And so, you know,
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: right now, I think we're a bit worried that things
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: are gonna have to get worse before they get better.
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: But eventually, you know, it really should be possible. for
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: us all to come together and stop brandishing all these
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: trade weapons again. Look, this is optimistic.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: No, this is very, yeah. Yeah.
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: Eventually, we should be able to get together and do
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: something that's, you know, mutually beneficial so we.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: Can escape the chaos. Chad, this is not going away.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: You were just talking... Have you guys talked to each
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: other about this?
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: I'm the optimistic one in the book, actually. She's the
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: pessimistic one. No, the issue's not going away. You just
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: gave all this great advice to graduates, right?
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: Saddle up. Fantastic. Thank you both very much for coming by.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: How to Win a Trade War. May 26th, available for pre-order.
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: Samaya Gaines and Chad Bowen.