Latest / Best of Business / Oliver Hartwich: New Zealand Initiative executive director on the impact of the Trump tariffs

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Oliver Hartwich: New Zealand Initiative executive director on the impact of the Trump tariffs · Best of Business

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talks B. Follow
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
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  Speaker 2: Business leaders think that Donald Trump's tariffs could have a
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  Speaker 2: more severe global impact than the pandemic or the GFC.
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  Speaker 2: ASB and Talbot Mills have done a survey of more
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  Speaker 2: than three hundred Kiwi business leaders and two thirds of
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  Speaker 2: them say they're really worried about the tariffs. But Ben
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  Speaker 2: Speedy of ASB told Kerry Would in This Morning that
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  Speaker 2: far fewer businesses have actually taken any action on it.
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  Speaker 1: Whilst two thirds of companies do understand the challenges around tariff's,
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  Speaker 1: only ten percent of companies have actually made changes to
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  Speaker 1: their business.
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  Speaker 3: To be able to address this volatility.
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  Speaker 1: And so that's what we really encourage businesses.
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  Speaker 3: To do is actually to start thinking through that strategy.
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  Speaker 2: And Oliver hartwhich is the New Zealand Initiative executive director
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  Speaker 2: and with us.
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  Speaker 3: Hey, Oliver evening over, I mean, do you think that
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  Speaker 3: they're overblowing.
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  Speaker 2: It or are they on the money that this is
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  Speaker 2: bigger the pandemic or bigger than the GFC.
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  Speaker 3: I think they're on the money, because I mean the
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  Speaker 3: GFC and the pandemic go over after three or four years,
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  Speaker 3: whereas the destabilization of globalization and tariffs that Trump is
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  Speaker 3: imposing that could actually derail the global economy for decades
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  Speaker 3: to come. And there is so much uncertainty about that.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, with the pandemic, we knew it was going
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  Speaker 3: to be over after a few years. With this tariff uncertainty,
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  Speaker 3: and of course the state of the WTOL, which really
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  Speaker 3: barely exists anymore, the uncertainty is there for a very
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  Speaker 3: long period to come. In I think that's re reflected
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  Speaker 3: in the pool.
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  Speaker 2: Do you think that he is exporting the idea of
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  Speaker 2: the tariffs as in, do you think people are going
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  Speaker 2: to look at this and go, that's a great idea,
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  Speaker 2: we should do it too.
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  Speaker 3: No, I don't think so at all. I think for
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  Speaker 3: most countries it is pretty clear that their prosperity is
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  Speaker 3: built on trade, and we need free trade to succeed
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  Speaker 3: and to be prosperous again. But as long as America,
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  Speaker 3: as the word's dominant economy, is pursuing this tariff policy,
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  Speaker 3: there will be global repercussions. I think, actually, when you
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  Speaker 3: look at the pool, it's not so much that we
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  Speaker 3: are concerned about the tariffs that we have to pay ourselves.
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  Speaker 3: It is actually about the secondary effects, where for example,
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  Speaker 3: China is paying massive amounts of terrors now and that's
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  Speaker 3: slows down the Chinese economy and that has negative impacts
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  Speaker 3: on us. So it's a secondary effect and sometimes a
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  Speaker 3: tertiary effect. So I think that's reflected in nepoal.
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  Speaker 2: There is a proportion of businesses and it's not insignificant
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  Speaker 2: who think that the tariffs are an opportunity? Do you
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  Speaker 2: see that?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, of course, I mean there will be some opportunities
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  Speaker 3: because it means that for countries that previously couldn't actually
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  Speaker 3: previously traded with the US can't really trade to the
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  Speaker 3: same degree anymore, and they will redirect some of their goods,
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  Speaker 3: maybe at chieaper prices to US. So maybe there are
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  Speaker 3: some opportunities in there, But overall, of course, the net
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  Speaker 3: effect is deeply negative.
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  Speaker 2: Now it's a very small proportion ten percent to have
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  Speaker 2: actually done anything to mitigate the effects. What should these
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  Speaker 2: businesses be doing?
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  Speaker 3: Well, it's a very good question. I'm not surprised it's
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  Speaker 3: only ten percent, because right now you cannot really plan
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  Speaker 3: that far ahead. You don't know how to respond because
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  Speaker 3: these terrorfs change. They change sometimes in a day basis,
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  Speaker 3: depending on the mood of the president, and therefore it
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  Speaker 3: is very hard for businesses to really plan to adapt,
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  Speaker 3: to find different strategies. And I think that's what you
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  Speaker 3: see when only ten percent say that they've actually made
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  Speaker 3: some changes.
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  Speaker 2: Do you not think, Oliver, that we should just take
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  Speaker 2: the approach it? Take it? I mean, should the default
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  Speaker 2: setting that we have not be Donald Trump is bluffing
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  Speaker 2: and he will unwind this.
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  Speaker 3: I'm not so sure he's entirely bluffing. Of course, we
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  Speaker 3: have seen a lot of times that he has shown
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  Speaker 3: this tackle behavior where he backs down after some pressure
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  Speaker 3: from others. But some of the tariffs are there to say,
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  Speaker 3: and actually we've seen it again today that he's increased
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  Speaker 3: the steel and aluminium tariffs. So I don't think he's
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  Speaker 3: going completely in reverse now and restore the trade order
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  Speaker 3: we had before. So I think it is justified to
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  Speaker 3: think that the destabilization of the global trade system will
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  Speaker 3: be with us for some time to come.
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  Speaker 2: Oliver, it's good to talk to you, mate. Thank you
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  Speaker 2: very much for that appreciated Oliver Heart which New Zealand
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  Speaker 2: Initiative executive director.
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