Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Art of Anytime Touchdowns with Gilles Gallant

Transcript

The Art of Anytime Touchdowns with Gilles Gallant · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Welcome home to the paper. It's presented by Draft Kings.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: The Crown is yours. We are an Action Network podcast.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I'm Brandon Kravitz, your host, back at it with partials
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: of the crew. My co host today, the Prime Minister
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: of Degen Nation, Stucky Kendri Middleton is in a different
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: country again and Evan Abrams stat sound is around here
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: somewhere if we look hard enough. SEC media days wrapping
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: up always some fun headlines that come out of that event.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: How much of that chatter, Stucky ends up in your
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: analysis as we inch closer to the season. You know,
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: they Steve Spurry, You're famously once called it talking season.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: But I would think that there's something that you can
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: pluck out for your your various endeavors in the college
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: football world.
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: Very little. I don't my big bets on campus, but
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: by the way, I could quit plug dig that's on campus.
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: Our college wall previews have started, so go check those out.
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: My coach loves going to media days, and uh he
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: falls for the coach speak a lot, you know, updates
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: like I'll listen and just you know, sometimes you can
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: kind of yeah maybe just like all right, they're not
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: maybe they're talking maybe not as high on some player,
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: like something with the quarterback battles, but a lot of
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: it is just going to be and this is this
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: doesn't just go to the coaches. This goes to like
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: preview content, right everyone like so like a team specific podcast.
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: We're talking about their team. Everyone right now is thinks
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: that they went in the portal and they address their needs.
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: Right now, we got this guy from you know, D
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: two shorter and he's now we got the speed that
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: we needed here, well, we needed an offensive line. We
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: went and got hit and then everyone addressed their needs
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: in the portal. Everyone loves their team. The vibes are high,
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: all of the guys are progressing. This guy's gonna take
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: the next step. It's all the same stuff. So it's
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: like ninety percent plus just noise. So you can you
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: can get little nuggets here and there from some of
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: the coaches that are more open, but a lot of
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: it is just optimistic nonsense.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and it works that way. I would think in
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: the other direction too, where you have coaches that preach
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: continuity and they were able to return fifteen starters from
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: the prior season. You go, yeah, but you sucked last year,
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: so I'm not sure that I like that. Yeah, the
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: one that I'm looking ahead at, maybe you've already bet it.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but I'm trying to get ahead of things.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Week three of the college football season is when the
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: fireworks show will begin. LSU and Old Miss Lane going
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: back to Oxford. Where's the smart money going to be
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: in that game? I would think everyone's gonna want to
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: hop on Old Miss, But LSU, I think is supposed
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: to be pretty dang good this year. Old Miss is
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: minus one and a half minus won twenty five on
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: the money line. On the look ahead is it's probably
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: too early to bet it now. But where do you
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: think the smart money lies by the time we get
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: to week three? I don't know.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: I mean it's definitely a spot where, like the home field,
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: there is going to be juiced up in that atmosphere.
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: So I mean, as of right now, I make it,
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: see what I make it?
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: I make it Miss minus three, make it Old Miss
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: minus three. So I would think that the books would
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: over adjust for the home field factor in this. Maybe
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: maybe that's still to come.
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's like I'm not that I'm not as high
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: as others on l s U we'll see. I mean,
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: there's a lot of new pieces that are coming together
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: and a lane's done it before with hitting the transfer portal,
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: and we'll see how it works out with this team.
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: But I still they they still have some question marks
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: on their team now ole Miss there's still some question
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: marks as well. The other thing is, you know, like
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: ole Miss has what they have two new tackles, they
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: lost their safeties, they two new safeties, They lost their
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: wide receivers, so there's some Now they have their quarterback
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: back and they have Lacy in the running back that
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: they're interior lineback. Their defensive line is gonna be really good.
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: We don't think break I sorry, I won't ramble about
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: the teams. So there's a little more certainty with ole Miss,
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: but there's still a lot of new pieces on both teams.
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: And what you have to keep in mind is so
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: I've had a better right now with bet ole Miss
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: h at minus one and a half. But LSU plays
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: Clemson week one and ole Miss plays Louisville on a
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: neutral field, I think little and look, Jeff Brown with
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: prep in these matchups is really good. So there's a
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: chance I think a better chance in the market is
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: impliment that ole Miss gets upset there and then maybe
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: you get a better price. We'll also learn a lot
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: about LSU against Clemson. So it's not a game I'm
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: running the better right now. But yeah, I'm sure there's
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: gonna be a lot of people that want a bet
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: ole Miss and just bet against Lane and see him,
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: and I mean, maybe it's as crazy as Lane Kiffin.
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you remember this when he went
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: back to Tennessee and they that was one of the
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: I think that was in twenty twenty one. That was
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: like one of the craziest atmospheres where people were throwing
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: golf balls, mustard bottles, and I mean I think Kiffin
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: got hit by a golf ball. People were throwing popcorn
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: at Do you remember that?
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Oh, yeah, that was great.
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: We'll see how this.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Is gonna be. This is probably gonna be worse than that.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: I consider this. This is my application for a guest
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: spot on BBOC one day is that you don't look
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: to bet that game, Okay, try and find odds on
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: Florida as an underdog. The following week, old Miss is
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: going to Gainesville. That is the letdown spot of all
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: letdowns spots. That is the only game I have preseason
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: circled that I know I will be betting on the
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Florida Gators as small underdogs against Old Miss in the
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: swamp week after LSU.
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting.
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: The one.
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: Along those lines, the one sec bet that I've made
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: so far is I bet Texas A and M under
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: eight and a half wins. I really don't. I think
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: this the offensive line is going to take an enormous
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: step back, right They have four guys on NFL rosters
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: right now from that offensive line that year, and I
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: hate all the replacements they brought in, Like trying to
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: replace them with LSU guys from last year.
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: Is not it.
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: And I think their defense might take a step back.
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: They have coordinator changes, so and I think they downgraded
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: at a couple other positions. So I don't. I'm really
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: low on this Texas A and M team. But one
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: of the things that worries me a bit is they
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: go so there are two of their schedule spots right
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: at South Carolina South Count of major revenge from last year.
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: The South Count was up thirty to nothing and lost.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: But they have a B on South Carolina in that game.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, they covered with these on the two they
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: to the texasand gets a buye before going there, which helps,
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: but they also get one of their tougher games is
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: they go to LSU. But that's the week after LSU
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: plays Ole Miss. So like, is there a little bit
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: of an emotional letdown for LSU? So I thought about
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: that as well, but I still was able to I
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: still pull the trigger on A and m under But uh,
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: that could work in their favor, uh the following week,
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: because we've certainly seen Lane Kiff and teams have emotional
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: letdowns and have games where they just sleep walk through.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so that's uh, that's how we should attack LSU
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: Old Miss. Just attack it from the attacker from the
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: sides and not directly head on. Perhaps coming up j'll
• 8:04
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• 8:07
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• 8:11
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  Speaker 1: Football season is on the horizon, so get in while
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• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Touchdown Market. You can watch his Touchdown Show throughout the
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: NFL season for actionable items and insights on all things
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: that cross the goal line. Jill, welcome back to the show.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: How you doing, my friend.
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: Brand, It's good to see his stocks. Good to see
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: as always, Buddy. Yeah, I mean here we are closer
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: to the end of July, and I feel like I
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: kind of removed myself from football for a few months,
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: like pretty much since the Super Bowl, and then once
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: we got past the draft, and here we are at
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: the end of July and I'm already thinking about week one.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: It's a wonderful thing. When does that process start for
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: you and do you start to dig back into the
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: football prep and getting ready for the touchdowns in the
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: upcoming season.
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: It's right around this time. A lot of the time,
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: I'll dip my toe back in the water. A lot
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: of it. What it is Brandon from me is I
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: know this sounds silly. I gotta get caught up on
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: the rosters a lot of the time, Like we know
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: the big names where they are, Like if you know
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: A J. Brown is on the Patriots, but these wide
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: receiver threes or wide receiver fours, like they kind of
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: swap teams all the time. You know they're on the
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: practice squad, they'll get cut. So a lot of what
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: I'm doing right now is more just trying to get
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: an identity of Okay, where are some of those tertiary
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: or like periphery guys and where are they now? And
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: then you know, as we go one of the things
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: that I love to look into is more a little
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: bit more research on the coordinators and like the new
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: coach hires, especially like the AFC North, like complete coaching turnover,
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: and a lot of their defensive tendencies on those rosters
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: kind of carried over a year over year. But now
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: you know, there's gonna be turnover there, there's gonna be
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: new defensive coordinators, new defensive tendencies, you know what they
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: did at previous stops. Because a lot of what I
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: do when I try to come up with my projections
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: is not necessarily what I think a player will do,
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: but what is the weakness on a defense that a
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: team can exploit? So that just kind of helps me
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: on my projections where those weaknesses are. So I kind
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: of do that, you know, at the beginning of August,
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: and then you know, once we get the preseason underway,
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: I'm mostly just monitoring again injuries and roster moves, trying
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: to see some of these early leaks you know, of
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: where touchdown odds are coming from, maybe from DraftKings and whatnot.
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: And then by the end of August. Once we get
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: into week one, I'm studying all red zone tendencies for
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: teams on offense, like where players like to get the ball,
• 11:24
  Speaker 3: you know, who's the snaps, the route share, all that stuff.
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: And then what's funny is that by the time we
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: get to week three, I have to like almost toss
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: out all this all of it out because then some
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: of these changes, like some of these coordinators, they'll shift
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: what they do, and you got a little bit more
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: of a sample size of the new season. So that's
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: kind of every off season for me. We've been doing
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: this now with action. Now this is my fifth season,
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: so this would be my fifth off season of just
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: kind of getting prepped and getting ready for the year.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: It's one of those things that I always think about
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: as the like when do you pivot from what you
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: thought going into the season to the way you analyze
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: the roller coaster that we're currently on. You said week three,
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: for me, it's week four, but it's probably arbitrary for
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: both of us. Is there a reason why three weeks
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: into the season or is that just a week that
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: you threw out? Where are you willing to say, okay,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: let's start to toss some of the priors out a
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: little bit.
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: Well, and it's a case by case base Brandon, but
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: I find what happens is like, let's say a star
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: player after two games, you know, doesn't have a very
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: good showing, maybe doesn't score the touchdown. That's when by
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: week three or even week four, you could start to
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: see those inflated odds where now you might be able
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: to see a little bit of an odds edge because
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: with touchdown props, you've got to be price sensitive, you've
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: got to have multiple sports books out, you got to
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: be able to go jump from place to place to
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: be able to find, you know, the best odds or
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: the best edge. So that's usually what I end up doing.
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: Brandon is kind of going with that, is that by
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: week three you can kind of make a choice of
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: whether or not what you're seeing for the first three weeks,
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: you know, is kind of where we're at, or are
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: you just gonna say, you know what last year's is
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: the same first three weeks, that is the same, We're
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: just going to keep riding that same way. I don't
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: subscribe to that. I'm willing to change my ways, but sometimes,
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: like a lot of betters, if your formula is saying
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: one thing, you might be a little late on jumping
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: off with that because of what you're seeing on the field.
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: So I find I do wrestle with that quite a
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: bit of what kind of week or cutoff do we
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: use from a sample size of the new year when
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: we start to be like, Okay, this is the new year.
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: Now go Bawn chance first of all, but too before
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: we dive into this year, a couple of fun questions
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: for you. One, who is your favorite player to be
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: on to score? And do you have a favorite cash
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: like a favorite bet that cashed and maybe how it
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: happened or the price that you got, like the most
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: memorable anytime touchdown or first touchdown bet that you've cashed.
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: All right, well, I'll go with T Higgins because he.
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: Is somebody who's not I thought it was gonna be Dawson.
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: Not well, Dawson Knox kind of fell off, like Dalton
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: Kincaid has kind of taken over that touchdown role. But
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: part of the reason why I kept going back to
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: Tea is obviously Jamar Chase is the number one option
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: on this team. Nobody's going to say that, but T
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: Higgins had more touchdowns last year. Than Jamar Chase, and
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: he's also been the top man coverage defense beater over
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: Jamar Chase, and it's been consistent for each of the
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: last three seasons. But when you see their touchdown odds,
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: you're gonna see Jamar Chase around like you know, plus
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: one ten or even minus odds, and then you'll see
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: T Higgins down the line around like plus one eighty,
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: and there's just not that much of a separation between
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: the two, especially in that Bengals offense. Now, obviously this
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: might change because stuck afc North. All three of those
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: teams of the Browns, Ravens, and Steelers all ranked in
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: the top ten in man coverage rate last year, and
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: they all had coaching turnover and all had brought in
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: defensive coordinators that all came from like a zone system.
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: So we'll see how that goes for this year. But
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: one of my favorite cashes was, and it's probably my
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: favorite game of last year was Buffalo versus Cincinnati where
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: I took T Higgins for an anytime touchdown and two touchdowns.
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: He scores at plus two hundred early in the game,
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: but then he bangs his head on the field and
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: you think Okay, he's in concussion protocol, he's not coming
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: back out and lobehold midway through the third quarter. There
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: he is catching a long ball from Joe Burrow to
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: cash the second touchdown and then he left right after
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: that four concussion protocol. So I was able to cash
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: the anytime touchdown and two touchdowns in that game despite
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: him wrestling with the concussion protocol the entire game. So
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: to me, that was one of those like like I
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: thought the bet was dead like at halftime, and then
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: here he comes. So that's would be probably my favorite
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: example of a guy like just one game, my favorite
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: player overall for the entire season. It remains to be
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: seeing how he's gonna look in Minnesota. But Juwan Jennings
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: was just my go to guy guy like where I
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: planted my flag from like week six onward, where we
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: knew Brandon Eyck was not coming back and George Kittle
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: was dealing with injuries, and he just took off. He
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: scored an eight of the last nine games of the year,
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: And to me, why I love Juwan Jennings, it was
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: just it was a pure example of where the general
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: public on that offense only really wants to bet Christian McCaffrey.
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: They only want to bet George Kittle, But you get
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: better odds on Jennings because the odds just don't reflect
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: the role in his offense, much like the way t
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: Higgins was so now coming to Minnesota, he's going to
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: probably be that Jalen Naylor role. I'm not sure what's
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: going to happen with Jordan Addison, a little bit of
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: offseason turmoil here. So I think Jennings could be another
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: guy that could be a touchdown machine here in Minnesota,
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: especially with Kyler Murray at quarterback.
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, to your point, in that division, you probably will
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: see the zone rates increase, but at least you won't
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: have Miles Garrett, who terroort Joe Burrow more than any
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: other player in the NFL, having to deal with him
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: twice a year. And final follow up for a fun question,
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: what do what is the longest dodge you've ever hit
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: on anytime touchdown or first touchdown.
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: Score anytime touchdown. It would probably be two years ago.
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: Now this isn't the long one. This is the longest
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: one since with Action Network and I cashed it twice
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: in three weeks. It was Tommy Tremble tight end for
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: the Carolina Panthers. Catching this, it was classic, just one yard,
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: one catch, one target, one touchdown, and he was twenty
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: two to one. And then that was against the Yeah,
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: and then two weeks later he's around eighteen to one
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: because again nobody thinks that he's going to remain in
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: this offense, and there he is catching the same kind
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: of catch like that, the longest one I've ever cash,
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: And we'd have to go all the way back to sheesh,
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: this would be twenty eighteen. Now, Tom Brady against the
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: Giants was listed at twenty five to one for an
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: anytime touchdown. That's how much the difference has changed now,
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: Like in touchdown odds specifically, like quarterbacks, like pocket quarterbacks,
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: generally we're ten to one or higher for the most part,
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: like a Andy Dalton, Drew Brees, a Joe Flacco. Now
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: this year or even just this past season, you would
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: see somebody like Joe Flacco at eight to one to
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: score at anytime touchdown. It's like this guy is like
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: forty three years old, can barely move, and then of
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: course I think he did score a touchdown this year,
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: and then of course I'm getting dms, Like told you
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: and it's like, Bro, you literally took him at eight
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: to one. That guy can barely move. Congratulations on the win.
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: Not every win is a CLV type of bet, but
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: that would probably be my longest odds Tom Brady way
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: back in twenty eighteen he scored twice against the Giants.
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: But my favorite ones, probably in the last couple of years,
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: especially since I joined Action, was definitely Tommy.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: Tremble is that where the books have caught up the
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: most is with the quarterback position, especially with not just
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: the pocket guys, but even more so with the guys
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: that have mobility like Lamar Jackson, like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: I mean I remember seeing Josh Allen last year. I
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: don't even think you could get him at plus money
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: throughout the course of the season. At any point where
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: else have books.
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: Caught up, well, it's definitely there. I would definitely say
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: we'll start with quarterbacks, Like the odds have shifted because
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: they know that that's the only player that touches the
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: ball on every single snap, and especially since the urgence
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: of the tush push and and seeing the effectiveness of it,
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: other teams are playing copycats. Those sportsbooks have had to
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: kind of shift their odds to reflect that. But like
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: a Jalen Hurts or a Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen,
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: their odds haven't really shifted too much, Brandon, I'll be
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: honest with you, since they've entered the league, like you know,
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: like they're probably around like plus one fifty or less,
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: you know, kind of in each game to gain because
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: those are a little bit more of the mobile quarterbacks.
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: I'm talking about guys like a Joe Burrow, who you
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: know is coming off for broken foot, like last year,
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: coming off the broken foot and all the injury stuff
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: that was happening, you'd still only be able to get
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: him at like four to one, you know, on some games.
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: And it's like, bro, like we're not that, We're not
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: betting that at that price, Like that should be closer
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: to like eight to one or higher, just given the
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: scrambling opportunities and and what his capabilities are athletically. So
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: I find that's probably been the biggest discrepancy. The other
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: one too, first touchdown odds have completely shriked, Like it's
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: really difficult now to find edge, you know, in the
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: first touchdown market. Like let's say you wanted to bet on, like,
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: you know, just the starting tight end, you could probably
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: get that on average around like seventeen eighteen to one
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: to score that first touchdown in a given game, like
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: a couple of years ago. Now you're probably looking at
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: twelve to one, eleven to one. And that's what makes
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: the first touchdown market even more difficult now because the
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: edges are gone. And then, of course, if just a
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: random crappy defensive touchdown completely takes away your bet like
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: that or something just egregious, you're sitting there with a
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: burnt ticket and even worse odds to boot.
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: Well, looking at you mentioned tight ends, we're seeing Look,
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: we just look at the past draft that we have
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: twenty plus tight ends drafted. This shift to heavier personnel
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: I think is going to continue. So kind of a
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: two part question, what are your thoughts on that? Is
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: that going to take away opportunities for wide receivers on
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: the outside when they're going to get fewer targets And
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: is there a like, are you, maybe you don't have
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: a specific example right now, are you going to be
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: targeting some of these maybe second and third tight end,
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: maybe some of the rookies that might get into the
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: mix early and get some red zone targets before the
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: market catches up. Is there anyone you have to mind
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: or what are your thoughts on that entire thing?
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: For sure? And the price sensitivity always comes into play
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: here whether or not the odds reflect what the true
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: chance of scoring. But there's certain teams right that have
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: that personnel but don't necessarily have those tight ends running
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: routes like the Rams are probably a perfect example where
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: they have three legit tight ends, and Higbee Parkinson and
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: now Terrence Ferguson of guys that all can kind of
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: play that duel role of both blocking and catching, which
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: I think would reflect, you know, some of the odds
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: of like maybe Kien Williams or Puka Nakua. But then
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: you have these other teams like the Broncos, who will
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: maybe have a guy like Nate Atkins play like, you know,
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: ten snaps, but they're all in the red zone and
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: eight of them he's running a route and you're just like,
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: oh my gosh, like Sean Payton, you mad man, and
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: then you can get him at like twenty two. So
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: there are certain teams that I think it will aid,
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: you know, especially because they're using it more to be
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: effective in the run game. But then there are other
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: teams who are trying to do these you know, twelve
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: personnel that just you know, not all twelve personnel is
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: created equal, right, Like you can that's awesome that you
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: have two tight ends, but if you're not effective at
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: blocking and you're not a good pass catcher, I'm probably
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: still not going to bet on you, And if your
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: odds don't reflect it, I'm definitely not betting on you. Right, So,
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: I think it depends on the team. It depends on
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: the on the like how much trust you have, Like
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: like I like Noah Gray, But do I like Noah
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: Gray more than Travis Kelcey to score a touchdown in
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: that Chiefs offense? I'm not sure because Andy Reid still
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: likes to go to his guys, and a lot of
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: the time, especially in the Chiefs offense, they kind of
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: get that touchdown premium of where you're not getting, you know,
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: eight to one for that tight end two, you're probably
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: getting like four to one. And that's what's more difficult, right,
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: is that some of these offenses they're so prolific that
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: they kind of just sportsbooks will just kind of leed
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: the second and third options for you where it makes
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: it really difficult, where really the only edge is to
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: go way down the line and bet somebody, you know,
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: like a kick returner or something like that. And at
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: that point you just kind of have to ask yourself
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: is this worth it? And if it's not, just step
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: away like it's okay. There's gonna be plenty more action
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: and way more times to be able to get opportunities
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: to bet on that backup tight end.
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't. I'm curious to see maybe some of
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: the Jaguars.
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: I can't make sense of the Jaguars like you have.
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence started running more at the second half of
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: last year. They talked about wanting to sneak more, and
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: sneaks are way I mean sneaks. There was like only
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: seventy sneaks ten years ago in the league. You're probably
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: gonna see four hundred plus this year. But they have
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: so you have their three receivers, what are they gonna
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: use hunter, They have strains. They drafted two tight end
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: two tight ends they I mean they don't. They went
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: reached way way up to get Nate bor kertcher So
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: and Liam Crohen is a McVeigh tree guy. McVeigh using
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: all that thirteen person are they gonna use more thirteen
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: person I don't know if you can crack the Jags,
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: but they could be one of those teams that arts
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: to use some of those tight ends in the red zone.
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: Well, and especially once they traded for Jacobe Myers, that
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: kind of he really took off in that offense because
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: like the first eight weeks that he was with the
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: Raiders didn't have a touchdown, had maybe like two red
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: zone targets, and then he immediately jumped in into that role.
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: Him and Parker Washington I think are going to be
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: very effective in this offense. I'm still dubious if they're
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: going to play Travis Hunter on offense though, stuck because
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: he's been much more effective on the defensive side that
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: they spent such a premium to get him. But at
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: the same time, they have great personnel across the board.
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: I think the other reason too, why they drafted a
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: couple tight ends is Brenton Strange and his two years
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: in this offense has already had a few games where
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: he's gotten dinged up or missed some time. So I
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: think and you could see that their offense kind of
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: struggled when they didn't have that pass catching tight end
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: in the offense. So I think that was another reason too,
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: is that Liam Cohen in this offense, they just want
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: more pass catchers, more pass catchers, so that way, like
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: you said, Trevor Lawrence might have some more scrambling opportunities
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: to score near the goal line.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: Yep. I've heard some folks say that the anytime touchdown
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: market is not leveled off properly in terms of the
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: hold the odds distribution, basically saying that the books know
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: that betters want to bet touchdowns. Yeah, so we're not
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: getting optimal odds and probabilities. What do you counter with,
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: as somebody who does bet into this market with regularity.
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: Well, yeah, I think what I would say is, is
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: so something that people will always will say to me
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: when we come into this game a certain primetime game.
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: Let's just say a random one like Jets Browns. Let's
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: just say there's a primetime game, and they'll just they'll
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: text me and be like.
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: Man, Thursday night game I heard of Jill.
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah, like and it's like I hate this game. I
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: can't find any edges or I can't find, you know,
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: a guy I like to bet, and I never have
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: that approach. I always can find a guy to bet.
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: It's just more how much of a case can I
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: justify it to be able to give this out to
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: you know, action network readers and listeners and viewers. Right, So,
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: I think, like from a business standpoint, for of course,
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: they had to shrink the odds because they were getting
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: gouged on these touchdown props, especially like in that twenty
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: eighteen to twenty twenty range. Then we saw in twenty
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: twenty two, we just saw that huge touchdown dip. I
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: don't know if you remember that stuck in twenty two
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: where they just like touchdowns just dropped across the board
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: where it was like a twenty percent drop, but the
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: odds didn't reflect the drop. So that's what made it
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: even harder to find some of those edges, right. So
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: for me, I find the best way to find the
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: edges is to not bet on those guys that are
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: the most bet anytime touchdown scorer. Like you know you'll
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: see those posts on social media, be like here are
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: the top five most bet touchdown scores for tonight's game.
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: And if I have a player on that more than
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: likely the odds have moved where now it's unbettable, or
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: it's just three guys that you would never get an
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: odds edge on even in the first place, like the
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: three guys that I think of immediately that I just
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: avoid because these are the ones that the sportsbooks want
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: you to bet on, in my opinion, but the ones
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: that rarely, very rarely have an edge, like Christian McCaffrey,
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor, Dereck Henry. I mean you could even throw
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: Jamiir Gibson now at this point, because each one of
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: these players has had a game this year where they
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: were minus three hundred or higher to score a touchdown,
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: depending on the sportsbook. But when you look at the
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: full season scope, that doesn't reflect what the odds would be.
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: Like.
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: For example, Jonathan Taylor twenty touchdowns in seventeen games, but
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: if you bet him every game, you'd be down about
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: two and a half units in profit because he only
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: scored in ten of seventeen games overall. So I think
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: of those times those betters. They people think of like, oh,
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor, he's gonna be my anchor leg for this
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: parlay for this week, and they get burned because touchdown consistency.
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: There's really only like one guy who's been the most consistent,
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: and that was Christian McCaffrey. And even he finished in
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: negative units by the end of the year because his
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: odds are so steamed in this offense. Right, So for me,
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: the best way to combat that is you got to
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: look down the board. You've got to try to find
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: a little bit more edges, got to do a little
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: more leg work. But again, if you're really into it
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: like I am, or if you're just a recreational better
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: and you're just looking for ways to have fun, I'm
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: not going to tell you how to spend your money,
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: but I'm just going to tell you that if there
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: is an edge or not, and then you can do
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: what you want after that. But yeah, that's why I'll
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: just say, if you ever see me betting on a
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: guy and he is listed in the top five most
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: bet let's just say I'm not usually happy about that.
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: Is there someone that has cost you like that comes
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: to mind as far as like costing you the most money,
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: or you hate betting on that you just can't get right.
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: It could be a team.
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: Also, Well, the one guy I do hate betting on,
• 28:38
  Speaker 3: but he always will get the route chair the snaps
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: is Evan Ingram just he's a tight starting tight end
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: right now for the Broncos. But even when we talked
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: about the Jaguars tight end situation when he was there,
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: it's the same thing where he has the physical profile,
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: he gets the snaps, he gets the routes, he even
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: gets some of the targets, and then we get there
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: and he's got hands like a frying pan in the
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: end zone, or he just not targeted at all, and
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: instead they run a play for Adam Troutman, you know
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: what I mean. So that's kind of one of those
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: players that I cannot stand betting on. And if you
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: see me, listen, it's very begrudging, like a lot of
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: the time, like I won't bet on it because of
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: the I don't want to say bad juju because I
• 29:19
  Speaker 3: don't really like to bring in outside I'm a very
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: much a numbers guy if the numbers match up. But
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: there's just a couple of guys like that that I
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: just won't bet on. Another one, uh, probably Garrett Wilson.
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: I love Garrett Wilson as a talent, but the quarterback
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: situation has just been a mess for his entire career there,
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: and you could put not all plus three hundreds, they're
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: created equal either. I've seen him with Zack Wilson, it's
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: a plus three hundred. It's like, no, thanks, I know
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: it's showing value you, but Zack Wilson is a terrible
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: thrower of the football. I am not trusting that. And
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: that's kind of where we're at, is that those are
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: the kinds of players like you got to use the
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: eye test and know that, like figure out who's throwing
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: the ball and if it's actually worth betting on in
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: that situation, because the odds may say that it's worth
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: betting on, but man, the play on the field does
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: not justify that price.
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking about, like the opposite end of that spectrum
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: you mentioned Zach Wilson, a guy like Joe Flacco or
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins, like quarterbacks that you feel like you can
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: trust as throwers of the football, but people aren't as
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: excited to bet those quarterbacks. Are the wide receivers that
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: those quarterbacks are catching passes from. Are there some quarterbacks
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: that you look at and say, man, if I've got
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: a bet on one of his top targets. I just
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: feel good going into a Sunday.
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: Well, I mean, Stafford is probably an easy option, Joe Burrow,
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: Like you name any top quarterback, you're gonna feel good
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: about that offense.
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: Like the off the radar guys.
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: Well, the off the radar guys, Like I mean, is
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: Baker Mayfield off the radar? You know what I mean? Like,
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: I feel like he's pretty on the radar, but you
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: know he's kind of mid pack, you know, of where
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: he would be ranked from a quarterback standpoint. But I
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: love the way that he passes in the pocket, like
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: he will get take a couple of steps out of
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: the pocket and make a move like and now, obviously
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: Mike Evans is gone, but there's still some quality receivers
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: on this offense. Like I think a Mecca Buca could
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: have a huge year. But again we're gonna be price sensitive.
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: But if you see Abuka like week one at like
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: plus two hundred or better, you better get on that
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: because that guy is a stud and Baker Mayfield is
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: a type of quarterback to get the ball to that guy.
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: But I mean, if you're gonna be like, hey, what
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: do you think about justin fields or you know it's
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: like no, no, no, no, no, no, no, I'm not I'll
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: play justin fields on his own to rush for a touchdown,
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: not feeling great about him throwing for a touchdown.
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: Speaking of week one, do you have anything for Week
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: one yet?
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: The only guy that I bet I bet this yesterday
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: because I'll be honest, when I saw the picture of
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: Puka Nakua and just seeing some of his mouthy behavior,
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: I thought, I don't know if he's going to play
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: Week one, So I'm playing DeVante Adams right now. I
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: can see his odds right now around plus one twenty
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: h to score a touchdown one against the forty nine ers.
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: And in this offense, it's a match made in heaven
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: with Stafford a quarterback like twenty three targets inside the
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: ten yard line last year and fourteen games, twenty seven
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: end zone targets, like he had a stretch guys like
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: six games where he scored eleven touchdowns, and like after
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: that three touchdown game that he had against the Jaguars,
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: like you could not get plus odds on his touchdown
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: prop anywhere. And the thing is, at this point, it's
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: about price sensitivity, Like it's kind of an odd thing
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: to lock up a unit on something plus one twenty
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: and midway through the summer. But for me, by the
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: time we get the kickoff, especially if there's some news
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: that may come out about Puka, I could see that
• 32:38
  Speaker 3: drop into minus one fifteen. So I have this projected
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: around minus one fifteen. So if you can get that
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: at plus odds, I would grab that immediately.
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: Hey, good bet is a good bet? Doesn't matter when
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: you log it is there are there defenses that were
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: targeting you brought this up earlier. Sometimes it's more about
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: even maybe even more so than anything else, the defense
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: that these players are growing up against, the sort of
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: production that they allow. Are there defenses that you're really
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: excited to target this year?
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: Well, I mean, I don't think the Bengals did anything
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: to stop tight ends in their offensive. Yeah, they got
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: dexter warrants and that should help from a pressure standpoint,
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: But in each of the last two years, the Bengals
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: have given up the most touchdowns two tight ends. It's
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: pretty handedly like by March. So the fact that they
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: haven't really addressed that, I think that's going to still
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: be a target point that people can grab against that
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: defense because that is typically what my process is. I
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: find a player on the offense who will excel versus
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: certain coverages, whether it be man or zone, single high
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: too high, and then I cross reference with the price,
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: make sure the odds are good, and then I'll have
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: multiple sportsbooks and then you can just pick your spot
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: and then cherry pick the odds discrepancies. Right, So those
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: are and guys that I did that with a lot
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: last year was like a Davonte, Juwan Jennings, t Higgins.
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: So the thing that I'll do as we get closer
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: to week one is I do a week anytime Touchdown
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: preview that's published on Action network dot Com every week
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: where I make touchdown picks for every game and it
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: has my analysis and it'll have you know what kind
• 34:08
  Speaker 3: of defenses these teams are running, what kind of weaknesses
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: they have. So if you're a consistent reader, you'll probably
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: start to pick up on the defenses that I like
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: to pick on or the guys that I tend to
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: lean on based on that approach.
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say something to keep in mind for
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: early on in the season. Two of the biggest potential
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: regression candidates on the defense side of the ball. I
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: would argue the Bears and the Jaguars just from a
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: turnover standpoint, like I doubt they're going to have as
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: much turnover lock and they have offenses that are still
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: led by Ben Johnson and Liam Cohen. As long as
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: they stay healthy, trust what they're going to score. Defenses
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: maybe take a big step back, so you could see
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: early on in the season those defenses get a bit
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: lit up and see plenty of touchdown score against.
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: Both need a grade on a bet that Kendra handed
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: out on one our last episodes, and I loved it
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: so much I immediately tailed it, so this is already active.
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: She made the case for Drake May over three and
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: a half rushing touchdowns on the year minus one oh five.
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: He had four last year, so just got above it.
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: But he was third in terms of carries at the
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: quarterback position, and everyone around him, from Jalen Hurts to
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen to Jackson Dart, they all exceeded that three
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: and a half mark with ease. Can you endorse this
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: bet Drake May over three and a half rushing touchdowns
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: on the season.
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I can get there. And I think
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: here's where I'll go with this because Drake May. Even
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: though he only had four rushing touchdowns, he still had
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: the most total quarterback scrambles last year, so pass plays
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: that were designed as a pass and then taking off
• 35:51
  Speaker 3: from the pocket, and like you said, he had more
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: fourthmost red zone carries, like more than Bonix, you know,
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: who's set up four and a half for his touchdown
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: line justin Herberts around three and a half. I also
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: think AJ Brown on the outside is going to help
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: open up the pocket for Drake May where he could
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: maybe take off through some of those lanes because there's
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: gonna be more man coverage as a result, more that
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: coverage rolling over to AJ Brown because I mean, all
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: due respect to Stefan Diggs, he was not at the
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: caliber of AJ Brown's quality last year. And then of
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: course they're going to have a tougher schedule, so I
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: think the Patriots are gonna have to be a little
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: bit more aggressive on offense to keep pace because there
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: was a big stretch there between like Week four to
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: Week ten where I don't think the Patriots were challenged
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: offensively at all, you know. So and then of course,
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: if you recall, like under Mike Vrabel, like this is
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: gonna be his second year as Ryan Tannehill with the
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: Titans was such a rushing threat in that offense, especially
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: as they would use Derek Henry as kind of like
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: a decoy at the goal line. So I think Drake
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: May could probably do this in two games, like you
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: could be looking at like Week four and then Drake
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: May has forced rushing touchdowns already.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: Two unit bet officially, Thanks so much, Jill. The endorsement
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: was exactly what I needed. When does the Touchdown Show begin?
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: By the way, so.
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: That's gonna be Week one, going into be the Thursday,
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: be myself and Sean Kerner we do that every week
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: during the regular season Action Playbook Live that we're going
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: to be doing that every Sunday morning. We're giving out
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: picks with the entire Action crew before kickoff each week.
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: And then of course I wanted to give a little
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: bit of a spoiler here that Evan and I we're
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: working on a touchdown odds tool that's going to be
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: exclusive for Action Pro subscribers, and it's going to likely
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: becoming the September. There's going to be edges and historical
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: odds that basically tools that will be able to give
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: you a little bit more of an edge if you're
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: betting the anytime touchdown Marcus So, yeah, we got a
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: lot of stuff coming in September. I can't wait.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: Well, while we gotcha, let's go ahead and place a
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: bet either season long or for week one as our
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: plant the flag segment presented by drifting it set up.
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to plant my flag here.
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: Okay, you're really planning your flag in that deck.
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: You mentioned it moments ago, Jill. What are we looking
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: at as far as a touchdown prop? And I think
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: you're targeting that first week of the NFL season.
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: Oh man, Davante Adams is like, I've already logged you know,
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna be logging it on the Action Network app
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: right after this. Anything at plus odds is huge for me.
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: That's what you want Davante Adams at in Week one
• 38:26
  Speaker 3: against that Niners defense.
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: Ducky, what about you?
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: Let's go Trevor Lawrence over rushing touchdowns for the season.
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: I think out there you can find six plus plus money.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: I look at the second half of the season. Late
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: in the season last year, his rushing numbers designed runs
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: all went up. They talked a lot about like increasing
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: his sneak usage, especially near the goal line. I think
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: you're going to see that even more this season. And
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: then I mentioned I think their defense takes a big
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: step backs. They're going to be in more shootouts. So
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: I think Trevor Lawrence continues his rushing prowess that we
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: saw late last year. Last year, I think he got nine,
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: So I don't hate like eight plus that juicier numbers,
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: but let's go six plus rushing touchdowns and it's a
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: guy he's also you know, for these season long numbers,
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: you can't really predict injuries, but there are certain guys
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: who maybe have dealt with injuries that are maybe a
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: little bit more injury prone. Trevor Lawrence, no matter what
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: you want to say about him, he's been extremely adorable.
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: He had that one hit where he just got absolutely
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: leveled late and then he missed a couple of weeks,
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: but I think other than that, the other four years
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: he played like seventeen seventeen sixteen games, So he's been
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: pretty reliable as far as games played, which is what
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: you want when you're betting these season long props.
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: Fun note too about Trevor Lawrence is from a two
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: touchdown prop market standpoint, he was the most profitable player
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: in the NFL last year. You're at plus eighty six
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: units because he had three different games where he scored
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: two or more touchdowns. And that's what I'm saying is
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: you could find some of those guys where you plant
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: your flag at the beginning of the year and you
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: just like, you know, put like either point one of
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: a unit or whatever and ride up the entire way.
• 40:15
  Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence has been profitable in the two touchdown market
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: in each of the last two years, and again this
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: past year he was amazing with the nine touchdowns. So
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: something to look at too for the twenty twenty sixth season.
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: Good note, that's fantastic. And if you have that six
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: plus and early on in the season he has one
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: of those two rushing touchdown games, you are sitting pretty
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: So Jill basically talked me out of betting Jonathan Taylor
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: for an any time touchdown throughout the course of the season.
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: What I'm gonna do then is just bet it at
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: the beginning of the year and just let it sort
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: of sit like a stock. I'm going to have Jonathan
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: Taylor to lead the league in rushing touchdowns at six
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: to one odds last I checks. He's still running behind
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: one of the best offensive lines in the game. This
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: is a team that's going to struggle to get in
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: the end zone through the air, so they need him
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: to punch it in. He had eighteen rushing touchdowns last year.
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: It's hard to ask for that sort of repeat production,
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: but he's still in his prime, so I'm willing to
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: take the plunge. And this is at least my way.
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: It's like my elixer jill of not betting Jonathan Taylor
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: week to week. Let's just have him to dominate the
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: league throughout the season.
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, if you want to bet the minus
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: three hundreds, you know, like especially like after the way
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: it worked like this past year. I actually bet Jonathan Taylor.
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: Was the first time I bet a minus odds touchdown
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: score in my four years at Action. I bet him
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: in Week three against the Raiders because the first two
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: games he didn't score. Daniel Jones was poaching the touchdowns
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: and then he comes out with three touchdowns immediately. So
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: that's the kind of thing where you can be able
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: to make like we were talking about earlier in the year,
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: like where you can pivot on something like that where
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor, let's say he doesn't produce in the first
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: two weeks, those odds are going to start to climb
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: just because of the fact that he hasn't produced in
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: the first two weeks, where you might be able to
• 41:52
  Speaker 3: find a little bit of an odds edge on a
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: guy that is really difficult to find.
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: One big time stuff coming up from Jill Gallant the
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: Touchdown Show throughout the course of the NFL season, and
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: we've got some odds edges and projections coming out with
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: Joel Goalant and our stats man Evan Abram, so that
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: it'll do it for today's episode. If you want more
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: from the favorites, you can find us right here on
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page or wherever you download your
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: favorite podcast. Our show has been presented by Draft Kings.
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: The Crown is yours.
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: The Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
• 42:34
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• 42:38
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• 42:40
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