Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 507 - 5/6/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 507 - 5/6/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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54321 all systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
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welcome to episode 5 O seven of the all systems go sports
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betting podcast powered by rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Wednesday. It's officially hump day, guys.
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You know what that means? We are halfway through our work
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week again, we got the early portion of the week over, second
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part of the week ahead of us and again, another weekend here.
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Before you know it, we're going to get right back to do what we
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love to do because if it's spring, if it's summer again, a
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lot of people take a break, which is totally fine.
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Gamblers holiday, no football, obviously recharge the
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batteries. It's always available to you.
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But if you're listening to this pod #1 thank you #2 you're a
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grinder like me. So you love betting Major League
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Baseball every single day, grinding MLB.
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So we're going to get right back to doing what we love, which is
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grinding Major League Baseball. So I do have a three pack of
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plays for you, including a couple dogs, one around even
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money, one a little bit of plus money and then also a favorite,
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all three of which have really good sharp mush edges.
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So I'm very much looking forward to breaking down three more
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games here in MLB. And as we always talk about
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trying to have realistic expectations knowing that the
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sports betting market is hard to beat consistently.
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Anyone can have a great day, winning day.
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Hey, you know, you might have a great hot streak here or there,
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but consistently posting winning days, it's challenging.
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It's always the goal and that's we try to do eke out as many
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winning days as we can. And I think the important thing
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we talked about yesterday, when you have those realistic
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expectations, when you're able to go 3 and O and bust out the
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broom, it makes it that much more satisfying.
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Because if something's easy and you, you go 3 and O, you know,
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again that that's, there's not much to show there.
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But when you know that it's hard, you know, it's hard to
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beat these lines. And you know, there's the human
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element and the team's got to show up for you.
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Can't have the bullpen blow it. You got to have the bats come
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alive for you. Again, we're talking baseball,
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but you can apply us to any sport, but it makes it that much
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more satisfying and gratifying. So a three and O yesterday
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busting out the brooms plus 2.4 units had a great hit early with
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the Tampa Bay Rays. I mean, Oh my God, betting the
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Rays is unbelievable right now. I actually had a lot of people
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reach out to me whether they whether I was playing the Rays
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this afternoon and I'm looking at the game right now.
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It's nothing nothing against Toronto, of course, you know
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twist my arm. I'll bet the Rays they're great,
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but I didn't play it because I'm trying to stay true to our model
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and our blueprint. And the Rays, they might win
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this game anyway, but the line actually fell away from them a
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little bit and the bet split really was not in their favor.
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So I always try to just stay consistent.
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Discipline. Yeah, team, you know, I think I
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don't even know what are we, 5 and O our last five raised bets,
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something crazy like that. But you don't want to force
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something. You can look at it one of two
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ways. One, this team's come through
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for me so many times I might as well just keep riding in which I
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get. But if you're data-driven
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better, you don't want to make bets just based on your heart or
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your bias or good instinct. You want to bet based on what
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the data is telling you. The data really didn't jump out
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to me for Tampa Bay. So again, they might win anyway.
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It may not matter. I know it's a fade Patrick
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Gorben Day, which historically has been a really good play.
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But again, I try not to bet games unless we have an edge,
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which would be some kind of data-driven angle there with the
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bets, the dollars, the line move, the system matches, the
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sharp mush, the rhythm, and it didn't pop up on the race.
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But anyway, that being said, we did play them last night.
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They won four to three, had a couple of huge hits late because
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we saw a couple great comeback wins recently from the Rays.
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But last night, Yandi Diaz in the eighth tied it up with a
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single to center. And then Ben Williamson, who
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they picked up in the trade with the, I think it was the Mariners
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had the game-winning single to center.
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They went four to three. So great hit with the Rays.
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The Yankees came through for us seven to four against the
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Rangers. That one was three to three
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tight game. They blew it open late.
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And then the great one was the Diamondbacks 9 to nothing over
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the Pittsburgh Pirates, so didn't have to sweat that one
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too much. Great pitching, great hitting.
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And remember, all three games D backs raise, Yankees were might
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around -125 S a nice three and O sweep plus 2.4 units.
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We're going to reinvest it. We're going to try to grind out
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another two in one here for today.
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So that being said, without wasting any more time, let's get
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into our 3 plays for today. So first bit on the board, I'm
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going to look toward a dog that I hope can bark here.
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And they look pretty sharp. So let's see if they can come
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through for us. I'm looking at the Boston Red
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Sox visiting the Detroit Tigers. This is a 6:40 PM Eastern Time.
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First pitch. Let's talk line moves, foot
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system matches, all the angles here.
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I'll give you my play for this one.
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So, believe it or not, the Red Sox Awful overall this year, 15
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and 21. But they have taken the first
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two games of this 3. Game series.
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It was a crazy one yesterday if you watched it.
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They won 10 to 3, coming through as a + 125 road dog.
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They won the opener 5 to 4 as a -, 125 road favorite, but they
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lit up Framber Valdez and then they had Valdez throw at them
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and they kind of rallied around trouble story.
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So that was kind of interesting. And maybe they'll carry some
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momentum here into today because I'm going Red Sox if you can
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hopefully find some even money. But anyway, tonight series
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finale, Red Sox are going with the righty Sunny Gray.
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He's coming off the DL or I guess IL nowadays.
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I was always the DL when I grew up.
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Now it's the injured list, but he's two and one 4.3 O ERA this
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year. Tigers, meanwhile, 18 and 19,
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they're going to turn to the fellow righty Jack Flaherty.
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Owen to 5.9 O ERA. Now what do we see across the
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market? Will this game open?
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Detroit list around a -, 130 home favorite Boston A + 110
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road dog, and the public can't decide what to do here.
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They think, yeah, Detroit's probably the better team.
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Red Sox have disappointed, but then again, Detroit hasn't
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played great the series. Red Sox are disappointed, but
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maybe they're going to regress positively.
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So when you look at the bet splits right now at DK, it's
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basically 5050 right down the middle, 50% tickets taking Red
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Sox as a short dog, 50% laying it there with Detroit.
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But what do we always talk about?
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Again, it doesn't matter if it's a baseball money line sport or
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hockey or you know, football, basketball on the spread or a
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total when the bets are even. And we're always talking tickets
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with a 5050 split doesn't have to do with money.
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It's the raw tickets. If it's 5050, you would think no
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line move, right? No reason for the odds makers to
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move the number up or down because they got balanced
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action. So they probably set a great
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price and they don't need to move it one way or the other.
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However, sometimes you got a 5050 split and yet you see a
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line move and that's important to me because again, line should
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move it off. The bets are even.
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That means that if you do see the line move, it's not the
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tickets. There's no contrarian play.
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The public's undecided. But that line move was probably
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driven by sharp money taking a position.
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So the bets could be even, but maybe the money is more so
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leaning toward one team or the other.
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Again, based on that line move. And we're seeing here, is that
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the lines going to the Red Sox. So the Red Sox went from around
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plus 110 now down to plus 100 or -1 O five.
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I'm even seeing some shops. Red Sox now -110 like a true
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pick and play. Meanwhile, Tigers open -130
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they're down to -115 or even -110.
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So the line, even though the bets are even, is clearly
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falling away from Detroit and toward Boston.
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So Boston would have technically there's still a dog.
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They would have a correlative betting dog.
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High total 8 1/2 total. So more expected run scored
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leads to more upset opportunities, more variance.
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Also, I want to fade Flaherty. Tigers are just two and five and
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Flaherty 7 starts this year and at home he has a 6.59 ERA at
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night he has a 7.31 ERA and he's at home at night tonight.
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Meanwhile, he's been better on the road, 5.280 ERA and a 4.15
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ERA in the day. So he's been better Rd. day
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games, he's been bad night home games and he's at home at night
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here. So again, 5050, but lines
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falling toward Boston. Gamblers fallacy probably says
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Detroit's got to win this game, avoid the sweep.
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But I'm going to back the Red Sox here.
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Maybe a little extra motivation with that framer Valdez, Trevor
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Story fiasco yesterday. And oh, by the way, popped open
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juice reel and noticed a 5% sharp mush edge in favor of
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Boston. So first, but on the board from
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you guys, I took the Red Sox. I got them plus 100 even money
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at the score, which formerly was ESPN bet.
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But definitely shop around because a lot of books have now
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gone to Red Sox like -1 O 5 even -110 next one on the board for
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you. And I forgot to mention
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hopefully some good sweats tonight from a betters
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perspective because all three of these games are nicely spaced
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out. 6:40 PM Red Sox. 7:40 next game Cincinnati Reds in the
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Chicago Cubbies. Now Cubs come in 24 and 12 on
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the year. They've taken the first two
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games of this four-game series. They won the opener 5 to 4 as
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-220 home favorites. They won again yesterday 3 to 2
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and extras as a -, 165 home favorite.
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So pitching match up for tonight, the Reds were 20 and
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16. They're going to go with the
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righty Brady singer. He's two and two 5.57 ERA comes
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meanwhile going to righty Colin Ray four and one 4.41 ERA.
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What do we seen across the market here?
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Well, this game opened. Cubbies at Wrigley around a -,
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165 home favorite with Cincinnati around a + 145 road
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dog. And we've seen nothing but line
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movement going up in favor of the Cubbies because Cubbies have
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gone from -165 up to -170 I'm seeing some -170 fives.
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I'm seeing some -1 eighties. So this line never fell.
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It is only risen higher toward Chicago.
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Yeah, Chicago coach Dickel, let's go Cubbies.
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But at Circa, I love this split at Circa 80% money line bets 95%
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money line dollars on the Cubs. So a nice low bets, higher
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dollars pro and Joe split telling us we got a lot of big
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money out out in the desert backing Chicago.
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Always want to make mention of this because you guys always
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have the the opportunity to play a run line If if you want to get
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a better price and you hope they win by two or more.
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I'm usually a you know, I like in college basketball money line
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a short favorite. I'm like a money line guy
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because I hate to see, you know, Cubs win by 1 and we cash our
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-165 -, 170, but you lose your -1 1/2 + 125.
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But I must admit, if you're a little bolder, 60% spread bets,
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92% spread dollars on the Cubs run line.
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So make that of it what you will.
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I just went Cubs -165 at Bet MGM.
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But again, shop around. A lot of books closer to -175 at
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this point, Chicago is correlative betting.
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We talked a second ago. Red Sox were a dog, so dog
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height total 8 1/2. This would be a favorite.
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Low total total. This one is 8.
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Anytime you got a low total at Wrigley, you know, you don't
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think about the weather. We do have wind blowing, not
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technically straight in, but kind of left to right, about
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50°. A little bit cooler of a night.
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However, one thing I'm going to bank on is the Cubs bats
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hopefully getting to Singer. More on him in a second, but the
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Cubs have the better bats overall.
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Knock on wood. They're hitting 258 as a team,
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352 on base percentage. They've scored 193 runs.
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Reds are only hitting 2:18 with a three O 3 OBP and they've only
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scored 147 runs. Singer wanted to mention him.
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He has really struggled on the road.
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On the road O and two 7.41 ERA. He's on the road tonight.
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Meanwhile, Colin Ray 2 and O ERA of three even 3 at home.
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So Ray's been good at home. Singer struggled on the road.
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Lions moving toward the Cubs. We got good bet splits at Circa
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Cubs, by the way, 16 and 5 straight up at Wrigley this
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year. That is basically the best home
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record in baseball right there with Tampa Bay.
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Lastly, popped open Juice Reel. This is a big one here, 57%
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sharp mush edge on the Cubbies from our friends at Juice Reel.
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So it tells us we got a lot of sharp people who have downloaded
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Juice Reel, synced up their books, also going with the
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Cubbies. So second bet on the board from
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you guys. Let's go out to Wrigley, get a
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couple Chicago dogs and watch the the season for the final
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season of the Bear Great Show. If you don't, if you haven't
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watched it, especially if you are a big, you know, used to
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work in the restaurant industry like me, it hits much harder.
12:33
And I must tell you, this guy's me and my wife, we have our baby
12:36
who's now almost she's almost two months old, which is crazy.
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I can't believe time's flying. But usually she'll do like the
12:44
night like the 4:00 AM and then I take over like 7:00 AM and it
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I make the coffee, I feed my dog and it's me and my daughter from
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like 7:00 AM. My wife gets to sleep until like
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10 AM and we've been on this kick of watching Bar Rescue.
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I'm a huge Bar rescue fan. I love Jon Taffer, you know,
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again, goes into these bars, they're disgusting.
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He yells at them and it's fantastic.
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So I don't know why I'm on that tangent.
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Got me thinking of Chicago, the Bear Bar Rescue.
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But I'm loving, I'm loving that new routine with my daughter
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watching Bar Rescue every morning.
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But I am on the cubbies here. Got a -, 165 at Bet MGM last bit
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of the night. See if we can get a dog to bark
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here or a snake to bite. How about that 9:40 PM Eastern
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Time? We have the Pittsburgh Pirates
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visiting the Arizona Diamondbacks now.
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The D backs come in 17 and 17 on the year.
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Even dominated, however got us a huge win last night. 9 to
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nothing came through as a - 135 home favorite.
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Tonight's rematch, the Pirates, who are 19 and 17.
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They're going with Paul Skeens, the former Cy Young Award
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winner, the young stud four and two 3.18 ERA this year.
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Meanwhile, the D backs are going to go with the fellow righty
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Michael Soroka. He's four and one with a 4.7 O
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ERA. What?
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Have we seen across the market? Will this game open Pittsburgh
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around a -. 150 road favorite Arizona plus 125 home dog and
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the public says hey, it's Paul Skeens that you got to back.
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Paul Skeens admit guys awesome. He's pretty lucky in life
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because he's with Libby Dunn as well.
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Guys living the dream. Anyway, that's a side note.
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But public all over Skeens 75% of money line bets are laying it
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with Pittsburgh. But here's the thing, Pittsburgh
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open -150 Pittsburgh is not up to -160 -, 170.
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No, the lines gone the other way.
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It's fallen. We've seen Pittsburgh even
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though they're getting three out of four bets, they've fallen
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from -150 down to -130 some books even closer like -125 S
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the lines tanking away from Pittsburgh even though the
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popular play toward Arizona. Arizona only getting 25% of bets
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at DraftKings, yet they went from plus 125 to plus 105 S Why
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is the basically think of it this way, why are you getting
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less plus money on Arizona when no one wants to play them?
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And why is the Pittsburgh line becoming cheaper if everyone's
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playing Pittsburgh? Looks to me like a classic
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reverse line move RLM play when the betting line goes away from
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the popular side toward the unpopular side.
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Tells me smart money here going with Arizona.
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We keep digging. I like this bet split at Circa.
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Only 31% of money line bets, but a massive 84% of money line
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dollars coming in here on the snakes.
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So we got the line move. Contrarian RLM low bets, higher
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dollars in Vegas. I got another system here.
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Home dogs off a win like Arizona, they're 46 and 44 this
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year. 51 percent. 51% in a spread sport like NFL, again,
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you're slightly a loser because of the juice, but in baseball
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money line sport, you're 51% on a dog system, it's pretty good.
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11% ROI because of the plus money payouts.
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Skeens as great as he's been. 2.5 through ERA at home, that's
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pretty darn good. 4.26 on the road.
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So he's on the road tonight. Meanwhile, Soroka is
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unbelievable. I had to double check this, but
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on the road he's got a 12.46 era.
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Very bad. At home he's 3 and O with a 1.64
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ERA. Lastly, popped open juice reel,
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noticed a 29% sharp mush edge on the snakes.
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And then I looked over at rhythm and found all three rhythm
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recommendations on Arizona, one of which is a green star.
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Smart signal play tells me that the AI model really likes
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Arizona as well. So last bet of the night.
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I know it's tough to bet against skeens, but again, got to trust
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the market. Everyone's playing Pittsburgh
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lines dropping to Arizona. So I got Arizona plus 1/12 at
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FanDuel earlier today. Shop around a lot of books down
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to as low as like plus one O 5. So just try to get as much plus
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money as you can here We'll split the difference.
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Maybe we'll call it a plus one O 7 something like that, but I got
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D backs, Red Sox and the cubbies.
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So you can get 2 out of 3 eek out a winning night.
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So that about does it for episode 5 O seven of the All
17:03
systems Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
17:06
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
17:09
always start first by saying thank you.
17:11
Thank you for listening. Thank you for tuning in.
17:13
Thank you for grinding in the arena with me every single day
17:16
through the UPS and the downs, the good and the bad, the tough
17:19
losses, the great wins and the sweeps.
17:21
We're here for it all. Obviously you want more wins and
17:23
then losses, but hey, life, there's ups and downs, betting
17:26
there's ups and downs. How about we TuneIn or you guys
17:30
TuneIn every day looking for sharp plays and me hopefully
17:33
identifying them for you. And that means the world to me.
17:35
So thank you so much for listening.
17:37
Now that I've buttered you up, I'm going to ask a favor of you.
17:40
Could you please give this podcast a five star review on
17:43
Spotify or iTunes? You can leave a comment under
17:46
the review tab if you feel so inclined.
17:48
Click the follow button. Recommend the pod to a friend.
17:51
Retweet the pod when I put it out on Twitter.
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Any or all those things would be pretty awesome.
17:56
Next, if you enjoy the style of sports betting, data-driven,
17:59
sharp contrarian betting, focusing on what the betting
18:01
market is telling us and all the clues and trying to piece
18:04
together the puzzle to make a sharp bet with our head and not
18:06
our heart. Not betting games with our bias
18:08
and our gut instinct. But if this style of betting has
18:10
appealed to you, you find it interesting to dive into the
18:13
numbers and figure out where the smart money's at.
18:16
Well, I got something for you. I'm thinking you know what?
18:20
If you want to learn more or maybe you have someone in your
18:22
life who could use some data-driven tips or hey,
18:24
Mother's Day is coming up, Father's Day is coming up.
18:27
Maybe you got to get a gift for somebody you know, you should
18:29
do. You should introduce them to
18:31
data-driven betting by going to Amazon.com and typing in the NFL
18:35
Sharp Betting Playbook or typing in the Everything Guide to
18:38
Sports betting. Those are the two books that
18:40
I've written. Very proud of both.
18:42
If you like to pick one or both of them up, bring the sports
18:44
book. I'll sign them for you and I'll
18:46
buy a beer or ginger ale. We'll sweat some games together.
18:49
Very much looking forward to that next.
18:53
Have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Real yet?
18:55
My two favorite sports betting apps.
18:57
They help me win. They're going to help you win.
18:59
Rhythm for their AI backed models and predictions for game
19:01
bets and player props. Actually got a notification
19:04
today that WNBA is now live in the rhythm app.
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So if you're looking for more sweats, as you know, it's pretty
19:11
much just baseball and we got, you know, playoffs and
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everything for NBANHL. But you know, that's another
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market that Rhythm can help you with by identifying the sharp
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angles. So go download rhythm, give them
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a five star view in the App Store and then go download juice
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reel. Juice reel with so many great
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features. Again, you can sync up your
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sports books, get a running report card of your action.
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You can also get the robo Jackson best bet picks the sharp
19:36
mush indicators. The arbitrage plays the shop for
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the best line futures all available when you download
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juice reel. And you can also support the pod
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by getting the all systems Go best bet picks directly from
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Juice Reel. Soon as I make a bet, it goes
19:49
right to the All Systems Go Juice Real best Bets page.
19:52
You can tell Faye, do what you like.
19:54
Cost you $4.99 a week. And I'll be honest with you
19:57
guys, I was thinking about raising it to 999 a week, so 10
20:03
bucks a week because I'm thinking, hey, pretty good
20:06
insights here. And hey, you know, I'm a father
20:09
now, so I got to make a little bit more money.
20:10
I'm not going to lie to you. There's a selfish angle as well.
20:13
But what do you think if you pay for those?
20:16
Those plays 499 a week. Would you be willing to pay 999
20:19
a week again? I hope that's not too much of A
20:21
bump. I may not do it, but I'm just
20:23
I'm just throwing it out there. So any feedback, hope hopefully
20:26
you think, yeah, 499 is really cheap and I don't I don't mind
20:29
paying 10 bucks a week, but for now still 499.
20:32
But something I'm thinking about, but I consider that a tip
20:35
jar pods free. You like the insights you value
20:37
them. Go sign up to get those best bet
20:40
picks. So download rhythm, download
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juicer. I'll give them both a five star
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review in the App Store next. Do you have a live odds page?
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If you don't have one, you need one.
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You got to be able to track the market, figure out what's going
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on, how the lines are moving, identify late smart money late
20:55
steam lines get lit up in red as they're moving.
20:57
You can jump on a book that hasn't adjusted yet.
20:59
Shopping for the best price, finding that best number,
21:03
finding the Red Sox plus 100 when everyone else is minus one
21:06
O 2 -, 1 O five, that sort of thing.
21:08
You can do it all with odds Logic.
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Odds Logic is the best live odds page around if you want to give
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it a shot. I got a special link,
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adslogic.com/josh 123 that's going to give you a 7 day free
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Lastly, you heard me mention this the other day, but I've
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You can make bets, you can do player props, you can do your
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So if you want to give it a shot, download Sleeper Sports
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app and use promo code Josh 123. That's going to give you 20
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So if you just sign up, it'll cost you nothing and they'll
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put in 50, they'll give you 50. That's that 100% deposit match.
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But again, that is sleeper sports go download the app and
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use promo code Josh 123. So that about does it for
22:04
episode 5 O seven of the all systems go sports betting
22:07
podcast powered by rhythm. Lastly, I'll leave you with two
22:10
final thoughts. One whether I see you at the
22:12
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook
22:15
in New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut
22:19
at the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino, MGM
22:22
Springfield or the Nash in my neck of the woods on the border
22:25
of Massachusetts and New Hampshire.
22:27
Around the desert where the true grinders walk.
22:30
Get down where Billy Walter sends his number runners, Where
22:33
the lowest juice possible is found at the South Point or
22:35
sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swim
22:38
pool. When you cash a big ticket at
22:40
Circa, you're going to walk up to me.
22:42
We're going to see each other from across the sports book
22:44
floor and we're going to knock on the janitors closet and then
22:47
we're going to grab a broom and do a little Fred of stair dance
22:49
because we got a nice sweep last night. 3 and O + 2.4 units.
22:53
The D backs the Rays, the Yankees.
22:56
Show me one of those tickets and guess what?
22:57
First one's on me, next one's on you.
22:59
Will post about the book. Swept more MLB tonight.
23:02
So as always, guys coming off a three and O or an O and 3A2 and
23:05
one or A1 and 2A winning night, A losing night, a hot streak, a
23:09
cold streak. Whether things are going great
23:12
or the things are not going our way or we're just grinding
23:14
barely our head above water or you know, try gasping for air
23:18
again, there's ups and downs. So we just got to ride the wave,
23:21
not get too high or too low, play the system matches and
23:25
avoid the games with red flags. And ultimately, we are looking
23:28
for sharp bets with our head and not our heart, in which we are
23:31
against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
23:34
avoid parlays and getting some COV.
23:36
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
23:40
So everyone has a great Wednesday night.
23:42
Let's see if we can get some winners on the diamond.
23:44
And they'll be right back at it tomorrow for a big Thirsty
23:46
Thursday edition. That'll be Episode 5 O eight of
23:49
the All Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by
23:53
Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
23:54
great Wednesday night.