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Brewers/Blue Jays MLB + NCAAF + WNBA Best Bets Sunday 8/31/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's what I'm gonna
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: start off this show. Horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Bruins hat man. I don't know what is going on
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: with the Bruins. March e is that what it is?
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's March ninth. I think who
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: possibly have with you, as I always am until I die,
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: not go well for me. Own five. The worst month
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: The slumperies slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody, it's
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: towed back with you better off dead, which I am.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: This is whatever. Sunday, August thirty. First, We're gonna put
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: an end to a terrible month of August. I think
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: my second losing month on the show of the entire year.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be a second straight losing year unless football
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: really fucking turns this thing around. Yeah, we should pretty
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: much end it all here. This is probably the worst
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: start that I've ever had to college football, and I
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: don't think that. I think that probably I should have
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: gone about fifty percent on those plays and instead of
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: gone zero percent on them. Obviously, I'm pissed. I don't
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: want to give up fucking losers on the show. I
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: think I know what I'm doing. I've been doing this
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: for almost nineteen years. College football was really good for
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: me last year, especially in the second half. I mean,
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: this is just bullshit, Like Week one is. It's difficult
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: because you don't know like exactly what these teams are
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: yet you have to go based try to base it
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: on which teams have the continuity. It's just not working out, man, Like,
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: I don't think that the Texas play was wrong. Texas
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: outgained Ohio State in that game, like three forty to
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: two hundred or something like that. They almost doubled Ohio
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: State's yardage. Like, I I mean, you're not gonna get
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: a loss as an underdog when a team outgains their
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: opponent by that much typically, So I mean the game
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: was pretty close. I mean neither team could score. I
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: did say I thought it was gonna be an undergame
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: as well. That should have been the play. I don't
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: really do totals that much, but I mean Texas was
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: still pretty much in that game the whole time. They
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: just couldn't get anything done. I mean, Ryan Day was
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: probably freaking them out with his nipple piercing. It's insane.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: That was the biggest story of the day. Ryan Day
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: piercing is nipples, nipples protruding, very disgusting, very disrespectful. Andrew,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: what's up man? Thanks for hanging out despite me being
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: a huge asshole all the time. Celt Dakota, I apologize.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: I mean that one that was obviously a loss that
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: did not even come close. But I thought that that
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: I thought that handicap was That's the type of spot
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: that I love to see. Man. I can't believe they
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: got blown out like that. Just really really crazy to
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: see something like that in a mega, mega sandwich spot
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: like that. For Iowa State, it's just maybe celt Dakota,
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: maybe they're not as good as they're ranked in the FCS. Man, Clemson,
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: that was a loss that was a close game. I
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: mean that one. Yeah, when it's a close game like that,
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: obviously the underdog pretty much is the correct side. Clemson
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: got outplayed in that game. It was close. I mean,
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: Clemson had the lead throughout the first half. I think,
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: so the adjustments were made, I guess by Brian Kelly
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: in the second half. I mean, I'm actually surprised because Kelly, again,
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: he's terrible in these opening games. I thought it was
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: gonna be another one of those oh lsu is gonna
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: lose the game in the end. That did not happen.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Baseball was two and two and probably could have been
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: better than that. I mean, the two losses that I
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: took in baseball were barely losses, so like, I mean,
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: this is a game of like inches, man, it's crazy.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: So yeah, like I mean that celth Dakota one got
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: completely blown out, but like a lot of these other
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: ones are really close. I major League Baseball, I told
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: you Toronto first five innings, if you had gone money
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: line on that, it would have pushed because it was
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: zero zero at the end of five. And then I
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: was correct about non including Toronto's bullpen as they lost
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: the game with the bullpens, they lost, but Toronto could
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: have had the lead at the end of the first
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: five there they just did not, so money line would
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: have pushed. Maybe that would have been better. And then
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: the Atlanta Braves, the way they lost was brutal. Man,
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess. I mean the handicap was basically
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: that I thought the Braves would be in the game.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: It was value on the underdog there, so I think
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: that was correct. Although Sanchez did pitch a little bit
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: better than I expected him to. It was an absolute
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: duel between Sanchez and Sale, so the under was kind
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: of tempting in that one. Maybe I should have gone
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: that way. But I didn't like Sanchez's matchup numbers. But
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: it was a duel. It got into extra innings. If
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: you saw what happened in that game, Atlanta took the
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: lead in extra innings, they were losing one nothing in
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: the middle of the game. They tied it at once,
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: sent it into extra innings. Atlanta took the lead two
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: to one and the tenth inning I believe it was
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: the tenth, and then gave up two runs in the
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: bottom of the tenth, even though part of the handicap
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: was that their bullpen was more rested, and they still
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: lost it. Brutal, brutal when you take the lead in
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: extras and then you lose, which I mean, this is
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: a game where the ghost Runner is a thing now,
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: so a one run lead in extra innings is not
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: what it is without the ghost runner. They got to
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: get rid of the ghost runner. Man, I fucking hate it,
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: even though that is the reason why Atlanta scored their
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: run too, but whatever. And then both of my first
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: five inning unders hit with Saint Louis and Cincinnati and
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Yankees White Sox, which I think the Yankees White Sox
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: game actually wound up going over the total for the
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: full game, so that was really a good I think
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: that it was because it went into extra innings though,
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: though it still landed eight, so maybe it still didn't
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: even go over. But still the first five innings I
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: think full game was probably a correct under in that
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: game too, though, but it got dicey because it went
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: into extra innings, which that's always a possibility, but that's
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: kind of bullshit if that happens. But still the first
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: five innings was pretty safe. That was a correct handicap.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: We got good starting pitching for both young starters in
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: that one, and then we did get the first five
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: underwright In the other game Saint Louis Cincinnati, that game
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: was an under the whole way anyway, first five went under,
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: the full game went under. Everything was pretty much correct
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: in that game. I'm gonna look at the starting pitching
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: real quick. I'm just trying to remember what happened here. Yeah,
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: but Greevy actually slightly outpitched Abbot in that game too.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: I think it was two to one at the end
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: of the fifth inning there Saint Louis had actually was yeah,
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: two to one. Yeah, Saint Louis had the lead two
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: to one. There was one weird play though, in the
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: first inning of that game. If you saw that Saint
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Louis had the bases loaded with one out in the
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: first inning against Abbot and they didn't score because nobody
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: knows the infield fly rule. I mean, it's dude, it's crazy.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: It's it's like everybody's just getting more stupid by the day.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Neither team understood what was going on. I don't know.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: If you saw that, you can go find the replay
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: of it. I quote tweeted it. It's unbelievable. So Saint
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: Louis had the bases loaded with one out, whoever was
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: at bat popped it up in the infield. So the
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: infield fly rule is that when there's a force out
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: at every base, because the infield could cheat, the infielders
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: could cheat right, like they could let the ball drop
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: to the ground and then get force outs. Like basically
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: they could like cheat and get a double play. That's
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: why the infield fly rule exists. So it's an automatic out.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: It's a pop up in the infield with a force
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: out on every base, automatic out. The batter is out automatically.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: But it seemed like nobody realized that, and like Cincinnati
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: looked like they were almost gonna try to like catch it,
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: or maybe it was just Abbott was gonna try to
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: catch it, and it looked like he was almost trying
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: to lost where the ball was. But you don't even
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: need to catch it because it's an out, like the
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: it should basically be that it's over. It's an infield
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: pop up. It's an out. That's it. You go, you
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: move on. You have two outs and you got to
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: get the last out. But luckily, I guess for our under,
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: everybody got confused. Cincinnati seemed like they didn't know what
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: was going on. The ball dropped and then Cincinnati threw
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: it to home plate like they want needed to get
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: a force out at home, but that's not a thing
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: because it's the infield fly rule. There are no force
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: outs because again you're not allowed to turn like a
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: cheap double play, triple play or whatever. So the batter
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: is already out. The runner is not forced out at
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: home because he's not forced out to run home. But
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: then the runner seemed to get confused. Whoever was on
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: third base, he started running towards home, so he was
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: off the base, and then they tagged him out, so
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: that wound up being a double play to end the inning.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: It was one of the most bizarre things that I've seen.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: I almost got confused watching it. I was like, wait,
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: am I right about what the rule is? Like? What
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: the hell is even happening here? It was completely insane, dude. Anyway,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: we'll move on to today. We got a couple of
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: college football I did already analyze both college football answer tonight.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: If you go watch my shitty college Football Week one video,
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: you can go get the analysis on it. I do
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: have a play on Miami Florida plus three. Hopefully we
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: actually get a fucking win in college football. That would
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: be nice. We'll see if that happens. I'll maybe I'll
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: talk about it briefly again at the end of the show,
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: but the full analysis is on the College Football Week
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: one show. And I am gonna have two baseball players today.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: It's a light day today this time, man, it's a Sunday.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: We do have a full baseball card. I don't love
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: the baseball card, but we do have WNBA as well.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: We actually have two teams that are playing on back
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: to backs here. Washington played yesterday at Golden State, and
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: Golden State absolutely annihilated them by thirty seven points. Washington,
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: they're basically done, dude. They're playing like a team that
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: knows they're not in the playoffs anymore. And now they're actually,
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: I believe, playing a third game in four days, which
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: is not a very good rest spot there. It's very
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: much a lack of rest spot there, and on a
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: back to back having to go to La. La. They
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: may miss the playoffs at this point too. Man, they're
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: below five hundred year But I guess, debatably they have
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: a little bit more to play for here because I
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: think Washington pretty much knows they're out of it now.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: LA I think is still technically not out, but LA
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: is coming up a pretty tough game. They lost right
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: at the end to Indiana, even though it's Indiana without
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: Cunningham and Clark right now, cunning him out for the season.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Clark may come back for the playoffs because it looks
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: like Indiana may actually get into the playoffs despite all
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: these injuries. But LA is coming off that difficult game
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: though they are staying at home, so LA probably is
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: still the right side here. They're up from seven and
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: a half to eight and a half with juice, so
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess I would lean towards laying that,
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: but lay it at your own risk, I guess, And
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: it still looks almost kind of counterintuitive to lay a
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: price with a team that still is bad. I mean,
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: even though the record is better than Washington's, it doesn't
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: look that much better, right, there's still below five hundreds.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: It almost looks like it looks almost difficult to lay it,
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: like from the public's perspective. And then Indiana still without
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: Clark and obviously without Cunningham or playing at Golden State,
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: who also played yesterday, but at least Golden State they
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: had some days off prior to yesterday and they're staying
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: at home, so that's not as bad Golden State. I
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: think their situation is a little bit more dire as
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: far as trying to make the playoffs. They have to
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: win because there are only two games above five hundred.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: Indiana I believe is more above five hundred, and actually
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: they're only three games above five hundred now, so it
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: is close. So both these teams are actually still fighting
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: to make the playoffs. Indiana is actually a two point
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: road favorite, which really that kind of looks misleading given
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: that obviously Indiana doesn't have Clark. They got all these injuries,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: they actually have a pretty solid roster. Man, Like, just
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: imagine how good Indiana would be if they're healthy throughout
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: this season. I mean it's kind of crazy, but Indiana
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: is still being favored on the road here, I mean
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: Golden State. They are still like a new team. They're
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: new to this, so they're not quite used to playing
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: these like high pressure games necessarily. So I mean, maybe
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: I guess I would lean to Indiana in that game.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: And I don't have an opinion really on that game. Though,
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: let's go to Bay Baseball. Try to get this done here.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: I should bring up the college football schedule too, I mean,
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: I don't even want to fucking look at it. And
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: by the way, some of my leans were correct, although
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: I did mention Georgia Southern was one that a lot
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: of other professionals were on and they got absolutely massacred
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: by a terrible Fresno team. I mean, college football week one,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: it has just made no sense, man, But I week
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: one is always difficult. Then I usually don't do this badly,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: but Week two is almost always like one of the
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: best weeks in college football. Though I don't want to ye,
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: what is the term put the bull before the horns?
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Is that what it is? Whatever the fuck it is,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: something like that, put the bullshit before the horniness or something.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: I don't want to do that. But week two, I mean,
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: it can't possibly be worse than Week one. But week
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: two is always the week where you can react to
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: overreactions in the market, because everybody's gonna overreact to what
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: happened in week one. So week two I love Week two, man,
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: So hopefully we get some over actions for week two. Baseball.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: Let's go to baseball. We got afternoon baseball. It's Sunday.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: Almost everything's in the afternoon because these teams are starting
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: a new series, traveling whatever tomorrow Tuesday, Saint Louis at Cincinnati.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati's on the version of getting swept, man, And we
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: all know the thing about Cincinnati. Cincinnati, I believe has
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: I know they did finally get swept. Holy shit, I
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: didn't even realize this. Cincinnati. They had avoided being swept
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: all season, including beating Milwaukee to end their streak, which
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: was a play I gave out on the show. They
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: avoided the sweep again against Arizona, and then they actually
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: finally got swept against the Dodgers. I was gonna say
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati is the only team that hasn't been swept in
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: all baseball, but now they have. But they're on the
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: verge of potentially getting swept him back to back series now,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: even though they've been the sweep avoiding kids here, like
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: like a child avoiding his chores. Mom, You're not gonna
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: make me sweep, You're not gonna make me clean up Cincinnati,
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: they're on the verge of the sweet peer man. But
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: this time it's not against a good team like the Dodgers.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: This time it's against Saint Louis, and Saint Louis is
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: right behind them, man, and the standings are just crazy
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: because Saint Louis basically has been done like they sold
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: off at the trade deadline, where Cincinnati, prior to this
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: bad run that they had, they were like right in
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: the mix for the playoffs, and now it's like are
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: they are they considering themselves to be out of the
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: playoffs now? I don't know, but I still think Cincinnati's
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: got to be motivated here because they don't want to
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: get swept at home by the Cardinals, and they've been
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: the team that was still in the playoff hunt and
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: basically playing like they were like at the trade deadline,
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: they were not sellers, and they have a five hundred
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: record now, which that is a motivator as well. Though
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: I know Saint Louis is one game below five hundred.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: When you're at exactly five hundred, you've been above five
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: hundred for most of the season. You don't want to
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: fall below five hundred. It's kind of like a mental thing.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: So I do think Cincinnati should show up in this game,
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: although both teams do have reason to show up. It's
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: a divisional series. Teams are gonna show up. Saint Louis
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: has the better bullpen, though, and Cincinnati used four relief
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: pitchers yesterday. Saint Louis used three, so Saint Louis probably
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: in the better bullpen rest shape, even though they used
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: some of these guys the prior couple of days. Cincinnati
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: has the better offense, though, so I guess do with
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: that information what you will, and I probably leaned to
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati in the starting pitching matchup as well. I mean
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: Andre Pollante for the Cardinals, he's not very good five
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: point four to four ERA, one point four to two
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: WHIP on the season. He's been better on the road
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: with a five RA, which is still not good. He's
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: been really, really horrendous this month in the nine point
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: eight two ERA nineteen to eleven strike a walk ratio.
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: His last couple of outings were against Pittsburgh and Miami,
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: and he got rocked in those starts too, So he
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: is not pitching well at all right now. He's not
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: on point whatsoever. Saint Louis has lost ten of his
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: last eleven starts. I mean, things are stacking up against Polan,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: although he actually has good numbers against Cincinnati in one
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: hundred and six career at bats, twenty three to ten
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio is not good. Too many walks,
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: but he's telling them to a one ninety eight average.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: Five point fifty ops? Is that what that was? Did
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: I get that right? Five fifty? I closed it too quickly, yes,
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: five point fifty. Uh. He's going up against Brady Singer, though,
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: who's been the better of the two pitchers on the season.
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: Four point zero sixty RA, one point two to seven
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: whip not bad. He's also, as we'll see, he's the
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: better UH pitcher recently as well, and he's also significantly
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: better at home with a three point eighty ra, even
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: though it's a hitter friendly ballpark here. Singer has been
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: much better recently. Is He's almost been the opposite of
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: Polante recently, as his team has won a five of
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: his last six starts, I believe is what that is? Uh,
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: four out of his five this month, he's uh, they've
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: won his last three. He's only allowed to urn runs
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: across the last three starts, going eighteen innings over those three,
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: including starts against Philadelphia and on the road against Arizona.
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: So not easy pitching matchups, and he's still done well.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: He's got a one point nine to five VRRA this
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: month and a thirty one to nine strike a walk ratio,
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: and he's got good numbers against Saint Louis as well
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: for the most part. Twenty four at bats, not a
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: lot of at bats though to aweight batting average very
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: low seven to sixty one ops actually kind of surprisingly
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: high given out low the batting averages because four walks
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: are in the mix of their eight strikeouts. One home
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: run from Mason Win Although you got to give the
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: edge to Brady Singer here though man the initial money
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: line moved did go up for minus one thirty one
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: to minus one forty one on Cincinnati, but they're public
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: eighty six percent tickets only eighty three percent of the cash.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: I would lean that way. I mean, I think recent
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: form doesn't matter quite a bit in Cincinnati being the
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: sweep avoiding kids. I mean, I kind of think they
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: they're probably gonna get this one. They better get this one.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: The bullpen scenario, though, Cincinnati, he really is kind of
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: at a disadvantage in the bullpen, So if you want
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: to go Cincinnati first five innings that would make sense
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: as well. You might have to do like a run
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: line to try to get the price down on that.
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: Though the money is coming fairly strongly in the under
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: in this game as well, fifty nine per tickets on
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: the over, seventy percent of the cash on the under.
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: I would worry about the bullpens in that scenario, though,
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: even the Saint Louis is pretty good. The total's gone
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: down from nine juice to the under to eight juice
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: to the over, so it went through the eight and
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: a half. At least eight and a half is not key,
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I worry about Cincinnati's bullpen usage for the
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: most part there as far as the under is concerned.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: I could definitely see a first five inning under again
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: in that one. Though. San Diego at Minnesota, I'm this
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: kind of interesting, man. I mean, Minnesota won in the
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: return home spot, which was bizarre, and then San Diego
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: got them back yesterday twelve to three win. San Diego's
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: considerably worse as a road team, though they're way better
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: at home. Minnesot is actually better at home than on
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: the road. I mean most teams are, but like I
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: think both these teams have somewhat significant home road dichotomy.
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: So the Minnesota has been bad for a while now,
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: so they're they're barely above five hundred at home now.
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: San Diego, of course, is the team with something to
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: play for because they're fighting for playoff positioning. They could
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: potentially win their division here, especially with the Dodgers sliding recently.
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: San Diego has the better bullpen as well. They used
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: four no three, yeah, four relievers yesterday, which that's gonna
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: come into play in this game because it looks like
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: San Diego is going with a bulp end game today.
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's bullpen is considerably worse though, I think used three
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: relievers yesterday, but all kind of long relief ish men.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: So Minnesota long men. Minnesota, they have some of their
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: better relievers available, although again, Minnesota's a team that did
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: trade some of their better relievers right before the trade deadline.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: Starting pitching matchup here, I mean, it's interesting. Davin Morgan
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: is the listed started for the Padres, and he's been
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: pitching out of the bullpen all season. His numbers are good,
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, every one of their relievers is good two
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: point nine to five R, one point one to eight
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: whip worse on the road three point eight sixty RA.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: But I mean I'm expecting him to only go one
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: to two innings here though. He's basically gonna be an opener,
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: so I think this is gonna be a bullpen game
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: for the Podres here. So yes, they have a good
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: bullpen though, so maybe a bullpen game isn't gonna be
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: that bad for San Diego though they used four of
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: their relievers yesterday, and I think one of them had
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: few enough pitches that he'd be available today. Minnesota actually
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: has a four hundred average and fifteen hundred ohps off
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: him only in five at bats I think six hitters
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: who have seen him. It works out that way because
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: there's a walk there Royce Lewis as a home run
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: as well. I don't think none of that really matters
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: that much, though, if you're only gonna get Morgan for
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: like one or two innings there, it's not as big
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: a deal. With the matchup numbers look like Joe Ryan
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: is pitching from Minnesota. Of course, we know he is
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: their ace three point two two ERA point nine to
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: seven whip, slightly worse at home three point five RA
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: at home. He's been a little bit worse in his
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: recent two starts though. Against the A's in Toronto, he
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: gave up eleven runs across nine innings, so he definitely
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: faltered in those starts. Not Bailey faltered five point h
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: six ERA this month just because of those two starts,
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: but he still had a thirteen to two strike out
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: walk ratio in those starts, so he wasn't exactly horrible
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: in those starts. His command was still pretty good, although
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: he allowed too many hits. But he has a twenty
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: nine to five strike out walk ratio this month, So
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I'm ready to say Ryan is
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: completely in terrible form right now, and he does have
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: good numbers against San Diego. They're not a great offense,
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: even though I do we give them the offensive edge
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: over Minnesota because Minnesota traded guys away. I guess so
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: San Diego's is slightly better on the season now too,
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: but and they have the better talent. But Joe Ryan
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: has done well against him in the past and thirty
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: one of better. That's nine strikeouts, no walks, two twenty
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: six average allowed, five eighty one ops. I mean, in
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: a way, I could kind of see some arguments for
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: an under in this game too. The money seems like
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: it's disagreeing with that though. Fifty seven percent of tickets
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: on the under and seventy two percent of the cash
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: on the over, so it seems like the money's coming
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: in on the over here, and it's up from eight
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: to eight and a half. I don't know if maybe
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: that's fading the San Diego bullpen game, because it looks
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: like initially Minnesota dropped for minus one twenty five to
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: minus one sixteen on the money line, but San Diego's
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: public seventy six percent of tickets, only seventy four percent
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: of the cash, so it's looking like they're San Diego
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: is shaping up to be a public road underdog here.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: But then it's like, does Minnesota really have a ton
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: of motivation here? Maybe because they know they're playing a
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: good team, but it's an interleague game. I mean, I
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: don't know. And is Joe Ryan gonna have the motivation
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: or is he actually starting to slide because the team
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: isn't going anywhere? I'm not sure about that either. But
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: it does look like Minnesota is an anti public road
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: favorite here, and obviously the reason they're favored is because
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: it's Joe Ryan up against a bullpend game. I mean,
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: that would be the reason why Minnesota is favored here.
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: So do with that information what you will. Though it
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: does look kind of like a counterintuitive line there, basically
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: like almost like one of those like trapish lines where
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: it's like, well, why is the better team an underdog?
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: It almost looks too easy to take San Diego as
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: the underdog, especially when they whacked Minnesota twelve to three yesterday.
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: We'll see my Red Sox are playing Pittsburgh. Red Sox
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: have to get rid of Dustin May Dude, what the fuck?
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: I mean? I know the Red Sox had a glut
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: of young outfielders, That's why they felt like they could
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: trade TIBs so they got in the rock Faeld Dever's trade.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: Dustin May, he is terrible, dude, if you do that badly.
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: He gave up whatever seven are in runs yesterday against
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: the worst offense in baseball Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is also a
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: terrible road team, and the Red Sox are on the
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: virgin getting swept by them. Even though the Red Sox
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: are pretty good at home. Red Sox have a good offense,
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: way better than Pittsburgh's offense. Red Sox have the better bullpen. Like,
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: what the fuck are you doing here? Man in Pittsburgh
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: had basically a guy that just kind of assumed the
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: starting role yesterday in OVI eight, although he has pitched
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: well in his last couple of outings. But still, I mean,
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: it's just completely ridiculous, man, Dustin May. I said it
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: wasn't a good pick up when they got him. Fuck that.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: Fuck him. Red Sox never should acquire Bueller or May.
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's so obvious, dude, like just putting me
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: in the front office. I don't know how it's not
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: fucking obvious that these guys suck. Like, these guys can't
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: they can't work their way back from Tommy John surgery.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: It's obvious neither of these guys has been anywhere near
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: good since then, so like, what the fuck are you doing?
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: There's plenty of plenty of a sample size now to
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: see that these guys are never gonna be good again,
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: So like, what the fuck do you want? I mean,
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: this is just horrendous. I'm pissed as fuck right now
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: because the Yankees are just playing all these horrific teams.
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: The Yankees have actually not done well against good teams
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: or the last couple of months here, but the Yankees
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: are getting to play some bad teams. It's like, Okay,
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox get to play a bad team at
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: home here. Oh yeah, well you get to face Paul
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: Skeens in the opener, and now you're about to get
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: fucking swept because Dustin May pitched in the second game.
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: Isn't that fucking great? Red Sox also have more bullpen
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: usage after yesterday, by the way, four relievers yesterday, Pittsburgh
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: only two. Pittsburgh very light bullpen usage, even though the
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: Red Sox generally have the better bullpen here. That kind
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: of evens out the bullpen situation a little bit, which
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: is not good. Mitch Keller is pitching for Pittsburgh and
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: he's not their worst starter, so the Red Sox don't
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: really get the easiest starting pitchers to face with Pittsburgh here.
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: Four point three five ERA, one point two eight WHIP
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: for him on the season, slightly worse on the road
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: four point four to six ERA on the road. Keller
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: not really good this month though, seven point eight to
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: eighty RA. That's really bad. Twenty five to ten strikeout
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. It's a pretty good strikeout rate, a very
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: high walk right His last outing was good nine strikeouts,
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: one walk at Saint Louis, three on runs a lot,
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: but Saint Louis again, their offense has really really been
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: bad recently, so he's gonna have to step back up
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: to face a better offense here. And when he faced
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: the better offenses that he faced this month Toronto and Milwaukee,
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: that didn't go well for him. Up against the Red Sox,
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: they only have well most of their lineup has faced
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: him at this point. They only have twenty five at
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: bats against him. They have a two forty averagemen eight
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: sixty nine oh ps, mostly because they have two of
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: the runs from Bregman and Yoshida two to one strike
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: out walker ratio, so Keller, I mean mediocre across the
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: board there. Basically he's up against Lucas Gildo, who I
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: also believe is mediocre. His numbers have been pretty good
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: this year though for the Red Sox three point four
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: to seventy RA one point two to WHIP. He's been
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: worse at home, mostly because his early home starts were
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: really really bad three point eight one ERA. He has
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: been better recently though, this month. He is a two
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: point five six ERA, so he is the way better
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: at RA this month, and the Red Sox have actually
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: won six of his last seven outings. They've actually won
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: nine of his last eleven this month. He's gone deep
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: into some outings this month too. Twenty two to twelve
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio is not good though, but he
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: had two starts where he really just walked a ton
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: of guys against San Diego and the Yankees. Those are
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: both on the road. This month. He's been better against
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: the weaker offenses Miami. Baltimore allowed one earned run combined
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: across fourteen to third innings against those teams, So maybe
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: he will do okay here against a very bad lineup.
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: But Pittsburgh has thirty one at bats against him, only
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: five of their hitters have seen him before, and they
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: have a three point fifty five batting average and a
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: fifty nine ops against him. So I don't like seeing that. Obviously,
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: Reynolds with a home runoff and they have eight strikeouts
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: in one walk. That's a good strike out walk ratio
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: for him. But these Pittsburgh hitters have actually pretty much
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: knocked around Giulito, so I don't love that either. The
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: Red Sox might actually get fucking swept at home against
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, it would be unbelievable if that happens. It's
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: so bad. Red Sox down for minus one eighty three
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: to minus one seventy two. I mean, it's a justified price,
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: I would say, But they're public, ninety percent tickets, ninety
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: one percent of the cash on them. I definitely worry, man,
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: I definitely worry about the Red Sox also losing this game.
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: Here the money in this game, the biggest market read
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: is on the under fifty eight percent of tickets on
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: the over eighty seven percent of the cash on the under.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: The totals dropped a little bit eight and a half
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: juice to the over down to eight. I guess do
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: with that information what you will, but I don't like
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: the matchup numbers necessarily for the starting pitchers there were
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: Mitch Keller's recent form, so I the under doesn't really
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: seem very tempting to me. Man, I don't really, I
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: don't get it. Tampa Bay at Washington, this is I
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: don't know what the hell of this game is here.
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: Both of these teams are out of it, of course,
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: and the Red Sox, by the way, they got to
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: keep playing. By the way, back on the Pittsburgh Red
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: Sox game here, Pittsburgh's showing up just because get to
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: play against a good team in Fenway, basically, but the
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: Red Sox need to fucking win, man, they need to
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: make sure they get into the playoffs at this point.
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's ridiculous. Anyway, back to this Washington, they're
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: playing like a team that knows that's out of it
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: right now. With seven straight losses. They're on the verge
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: of getting swept here Tampa. I mean, they also know
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: they're not going anywhere this year. But Tampa actually has
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: a positive run differential this year though, so Tampa's not
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: really as bad as the record looks. I mean, they've
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: had a difficult schedule, they're in a difficult division. They
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: do have a bigger matchup against Seattle coming up next,
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: so it's possible they take Washington lately in the series
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: finale here. But Tampa's the better team though, I mean,
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: they have the better bullpen. Washington's bullpen is bad. The
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: bullpen usage Washington's has been pretty light. Tampa's wasn't that
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: major yesterday either. Though Tampa's got the better bullpend, they
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: got the better offense too. Actually, starting pitching wise, basically
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: have two converted relievers pitching today. Ian c More pitching
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: for the Rays. He's got a three point one eighty
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: RA a one point zero to whip. Those are good numbers.
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: One point eight three ERA on the Rose. He's way
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: better on the road for whatever reason. But I believe
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: this is only gonna be his second start. He's been
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: pitching out of the bullpen. Hasn't even pitched that much
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: really this year. His one start was good. It was
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: that Cleveland five innings, pitch, one hit, allowed eight strikeouts,
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: one walk, didn't allow any runs. Then an over extend
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: him well, they let him go sixty something pitches in
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: each of his last three outings, so you're probably gonna
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: get about the same here. I think you'll probably get
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: about four or five innings out of him, maybe this
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: time out, depending on how well he pitches. I mean,
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: Cleveland is a bad offense, even worse than Washington's. Washington
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: has never seen Seymour before, though, so maybe Seymour will
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: do well here because he has the edge as far
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: as the fact that he's totally unfamiliar to the opposing hitters.
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: And based on what we've seen out of Seymour, I
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: actually think he is better than Brad Lord, who was
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: pitching for Washington, who has a three point eight one
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: point twenty nine whips, so his whip is higher. He's
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: been a little bit worse at home, or somewhat worse
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: four point twenty nine era at home. Lord has been
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: a lot worse this month, though. Man, he was a
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: guy that I was fading when he was in the
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: starting rotation like earlier, and he was somehow he was
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: doing well and I was getting pissed. And now he's
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: not doing well. And I still think my handicap, my
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: analysis of him, I still think is right. I don't
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: think he's that good He has a five point four
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: to seventy RA this month and twenty three to nine
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio, so he's been the worst of
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: the two pitchers this month. His last couple of starts
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: have been rough, but they were against both New York
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: teams Mets, Yankees. We know those teams can hit. He
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: gave up tenor and runs in nine to two thirds
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: innings pitched over that span, so he is also he
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: is definitely in worse for him now though Tampa has
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: never faced him before, so he does have the upper
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: hand there as far as the he has an unfamiliarity edge,
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: but so does Seymour. I think Seymour is the better picture,
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: So I actually think Tampa does have the edge across
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: the board here. Uh, they're just the better team two
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: teams playing out the stretch in Washington. Basically they're almost
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: looking like they're a dead team now. So I would
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: still lean to Tampa here, and the money is actually
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: coming in that way. They're off for minus one thirty
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: two and minus one forty as a road favorite. It's like,
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: does Tampa really, I mean, are they justified being Is
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: it justified to aligne them as a road favorite? That heavily.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: I think against a team as bad as Washington in
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: a matchup like this, maybe it is seventy percent of
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: tickets eighty one percent of the cash coming in on Tampa.
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: So the money seems to be coming in on Tampa
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: and a little bit towards the over, even though it
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: initially dropped through the key number of nine to eight
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: and a half. But it looks like maybe that was
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: a false move to try to get it off of
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: the key number of nine. Because we have seventy nine
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the under. Seems like the public
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: actually might want an under here because they don't think
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: these offenses are good, which they're basically right, But fifty
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: seven percent of tickets on the under, I mean I
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: probably wouldn't disagree necessarily with an over here. I mean,
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: you get Washington with a terrible bullpen, the starting pitching
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: matchup is certainly questionable, but I think Tampa is probably
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: still the better way to look in that game, because
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: a lot of times, if you get a bullpen game
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: like that and unfamiliarity on the side of both starting pictures,
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: is not even really a bullpen game because both of
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: these that converted relievers will probably go like four or
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: five innings. So when you get a situation like that,
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: it's actually a little bit dicey to try to play
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: the overs sometimes. Milwaukee, Toronto. As you can see in
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: my title of the video, it's been the title of
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: the video three days in a row. Man, I'm gonna
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: have a play on that series again. Man, and I'm
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: owing to. I know I'm owing too in that series,
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: but it was kind of bullshit in both Man, I
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: fucking hate dude. I'm gonna like I'm an old man.
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna I don't know if you could hear that
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: on my mic because it's a directional mic. But Jesus
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: fucking Christ, dude, I get people revving their engines outside
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: all the time. That's one thing I'm not gonna miss
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: if and when I have to sell this place, it's
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: just so fucking stupid. These people should be arrested for that.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: I don't care libertarianism, man, you should not be able
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: to rev engines extremely loudly at any hour of the
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: day or night, like right outside in a residential area,
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: like get fucked anyway, Yeah, Milwaukee, Toronto. Both of my
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: losses in that series have been bullshit. Though, as we know,
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: I had an under in the first game and it
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: was zero zero into the sixth or seventh inning or whatever,
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: and that still didn't go under. And then yesterday Toronto,
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: all they needed to do was score one run to
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: get us that run line play there, and that didn't
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: happen either, So it was zero zero Miami at the Mets.
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: The Mets are still playing for something here, obviously because
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: the Mets trying to make sure they make the playoffs.
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: They're trying to catch Philadelphia in the NL East as well.
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: Very high scoring series. So far, every game has gone
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: over in the series. The Mets lost yesterday eleven to eight,
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: so they've actually lost two of the three games in
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: the series, even though they're the better team and the
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: team with motivation. The Mets have the better offense. The
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: Mets have the better bullpen. The Mets, as far as
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: their bullpen usage, they use a lot of relief pitchers.
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: Yesterday it was a high scoring game. Man both teams
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: use a lot of their bullpens, so the bullpens are
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: pretty worked after yesterday, so this could be another over
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: if it gets to the bullpens. Man Sandy al Contra
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: is pitching from Miami here. He's another one of those
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: guys who just has never really returned after having Tommy
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: John surgery five point eight seven ERA one point three
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: to five whip. On the season, he's been way worse
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: on the road eight point zero three ERA on the road.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: He's really struggled on the road. This month, he's actually
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: been a bit better though, four point two two ERA
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: thirty two and nine strike a walk ratium, and towards
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: the end of last month he actually pitched pretty well too,
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: so he's actually in somewhat better form right now. Those
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: first two outings this month weren't that good. He's also
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: had three outings at home this month, and the last
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: two were his best, and those are both at home,
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: so I guess take from that what you will, though
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: he's he's had three good outings in a row though,
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: along two or fewer runs in all three, going six
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: plus innings and all three although he got no run
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: support in a couple of them, but one was on
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: the road against Boston, so that's I guess a decent
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: sign there. But to me, he does appear to be
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: in form right now. His numbers against the Mets are
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: okay and one hundred and ninety nine career bats, thirty
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: five nineteen strike a walk ratio that's not good. That
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: is way too many walks two forty one. Batting average
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: is low, seven fifty nine ops is a little bit high,
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: and it's because he's allowed nineteen walks and nine home
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: runs to them, multiple from Sodo and Mullins. So Alcantra,
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: I mean he is batting on the road. He's been
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: bad in most of the season. This is a difficult
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: matchup for him, and the lineup does hit him pretty well,
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: fairly well, so even though he's in decent form right now,
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: it is possible that he gives up some runs in
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: this one. Man, he's up against Code I sang Gay,
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: who I don't think is good as is as good
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: as Zra looks two point seven to three ERA one
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: point twenty nine whip for the Mets here. He's been
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: slightly worse at home two point eight. But his problem
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: is he walks too many guys. Man, it has caught
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: up to him this month. This month he has a
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: five point four to eighty RA. He hasn't gone deeper
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: than five to two thirds in any outing. He's failed
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: to make it five innings and three of the five.
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: So he's not pitching well right now. Twenty one to
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: twelve strike out walk ratio. Again, he's a guy that
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: somehow was able to still limit the amount of runs
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: that he allows, but he's not going deep into games.
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: His pitch count is getting too high, he's walking too
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: many guys. He's not as good as the era looks
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: man Like. I said, although Miami does not have a
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: whole lot of experience against him, only five hitters have
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: seen him twenty one at bats against him. They have
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: six strikeouts, no walks, only a one forty three average
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: well excusely one extra base hit edwards a double, a
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: one forty three average allowed in three thirty three oh ps.
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: So Senga has done well against Miami, but he's pitching
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: poorly recently. Man So, I could see this being another over,
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: to be honest, and the market is just like, there's
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: not a whole lot to read into the total with
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: the market here, it's sending at eight juice to the over,
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: basically hasn't moved seventy two percent of tickets and cash
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: on the over. I could certainly see this going over though.
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: If we get to the bullpens if either starter, I mean,
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: you got Sengo who just doesn't last that deep into games,
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: all contra could potentially return to bad form here, So yeah,
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: I mean I would lean to the over. In this game.
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: Money is coming into the Mets eighty six percent of tickets,
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: ninety three percent of the cash, So it looks like
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: public and professionals maybe both on the side of the
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: Mets kind of just sitting around minus one seventy minus
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: one sixty nine, so not a lot of movement in
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: that game. But yeah, I still think maybe taking a
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: shot with the over would be the best way to
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: look at that game, although I'm not gonna recommend it,
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: but I mean, again giving out Leans just ways to
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: approach these games. Cleveland is on the verge of sweeping Seattle,
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: which is crazy because Cleveland sold off of the trade deadline,
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: and it's crazy that they're going on these runs or
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: they're actually playing pretty well this time. They haven't been
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: scoring though this time it's been either pitching has actually
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: helped them out. Cleveland does still have a good bullpend.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: They actually have the better bullpen of these two teams.
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: Seattle has the better offense though, and Seattle has more
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: to play for because Cleveland, I think they still know
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: they're not going to make the playoffs here, even though
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: there is a chance. Seattle's locked in a battle in
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: the Al West Man. I mean, they're trying to make
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: sure that they win this division here, or trying to
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: make sure they get into the playoffs, I should say,
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: but they're also trying to potentially win the division I
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: should say, because they're behind Houston right now, Seattle, they
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: could be extra motivated here because they're trying to avoid
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: a sweep. As well. As far as the bullpen you suggested,
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: I don't think it was that heavy on either side. Yeah,
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: very light bullpen usage from Cleveland. Seattle's also really likes
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: you have two bullpens in good shape again here. Yesterday
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: did go under. I did mention I leaned under in
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: that game yesterday. It did happen. It was a seven
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: run game there, so I think the total was only
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: seven and a half. Maybe it was eight, so it
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: was a little close, but it did go under. I mean,
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: when you go under seven, it's like it's almost always
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: going to be close. It just seems difficult to do it.
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: Although there are definitely spots to do it. Bryce Miller
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: is pitching here for Seattle, and I do think he's
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: the better of these two pitchers actually if you look
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: at his career stats. But he's not bounced back from injury. Man,
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: he's trying to bounce back from injury this year and
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: it has not gone well this season. Five point nine
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: to eighty R A one point five whip. That's not good.
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: He's worse on the road throughout his career. He's been
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: worse on the road, which almost every Seattle pitcher is
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: six point five two ERA on the road. Not good.
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: This month, He's been bad in two starts since he
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: came back from injury. Seven point two ERA, eight to
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: three strike a walk ratio is not that bad. I mean,
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: that's too tolerable. He went five innings in each outing
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: and a looted four earned runs in each outing, which
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: isn't that bad to give up ten hits. But he's
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: given up five home runs, so the long ball has
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: really hurt him. He faced Philadelphia and San die so
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: he is facing a way worse line up here in Cleveland.
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: As Seattle has the way better offense here. Miller against
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: Cleveland does have good numbers and only fifteen at bats
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: off them, they have zero extra base hits, two strikeouts,
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: one walk, two hundred batting average four to fifty OPS.
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: So if Miller is going to start returning to form,
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: I think it would be against a lineup like this.
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is a lineup it's not that difficult
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: to face. So Miller potentially could actually do well in
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: this one. He's going up against Tanner Biby, who has
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: not been a good form for Cleveland. I think he's
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: pitching like a guy who pretty much knows that his
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: team isn't going anywhere this year. To me, it almost
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: seems like he's just disinterested because he was so much
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: better last year four point seven to three ERA, one
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: point three to one whip for him for Cleveland. He
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: is better at home though, three point five EIGHTYRA. He's
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: significantly better at home. But he's been bad for like
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: a couple of months now, two months in a row
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: over a six ERA this month, fourteen of Fiuly's twenty
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: five to fourteen strikeout walk ratio really really bad, a
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: ton of walks, six point six point two six ERA.
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: He's allowed four or more and runs and four of
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: the five outings and in the last one in July
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: as well. Cleveland went in a run where they won
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: seven games in a row behind it, But that was
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: a mirage because he was pitching really poorly and they
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: were just scoring a ton, which was bizarre. And then
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: since then it hasn't been as good for him. He
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: lost his last two outings where Cleveland lost his last two.
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: He took a loss in one of them. His numbers
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: against Seattle or mediocre and forty eight at bats twelve
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: four strike at walk ratio two seventy one batting average,
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: allowed seven to fifteen obs. The obs isn't that bad,
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: but I'm probably gonna give the lean to Seattle in
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: this one. Cleveland did flip from plus one oh six
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: to minus one oh seven here, so the money did
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: come in on Cleveland. I actually saw Seattle as a
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: favorite a little while ago, so it looks like the
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: money line did move towards Cleveland. I don't really agree
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: with it. Seventy percent taket seventy six percent of the
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: cash on Seattle. I think if you're looking for one
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: of these pitchers to pitch significantly better than they have
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: been pitching, I think it would have to be Miller
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, you look at his career numbers, the fact
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: that he's facing a really weak offense, I think, and
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: he has the better matchup numbers here, even though I
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: know he's bad on the road, so the home road
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: splits favor Biby, but Biby's he's just in really bad
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: for him for a longer stretch of time than Miller.
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: To him, Miller coming back from injury can give him
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: a little bit of pass for that as well. He's
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: only had a couple of starts since then, so I
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: would lean that way. Even though Cleveland does have the
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: better bullpens, Seattle's isn't that bad. The money's coming in
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: in the under as well. Total of eight and a
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: half sixty nine percent tickets on the over sixty cash
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: on the under. Don't know if I necessarily agree with
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: the under him and I could potentially see both starters
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: continuing to not do well here. But the bullpens are
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: fairly good and they're in pretty good shape, so if
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: you want to go over, you're gonna need the starters
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: to get lit up a bit and be out of
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: the game fairly early on and cascade into the bullpens
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: pretty much. So I think Seattle would be my preference
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: in that game. Anaheim at Houston. Houston's got something to
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: play for. Obviously, they're trying to hang on to the
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: Al West here. They did just lose a three game
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: win streak by losing to Anaheim yesterday. For Andrew here
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: his Anaheim Angels or his wife's Anaheim Angels here, Anaheim
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: again there. As I always point out, they're worse than
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: their record looks, even though the record isn't even good.
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: They're run differential is one of the worst in baseball.
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: It's like bottom five in all of baseball, which is
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: it's ridiculous that the record is even what it is.
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: Houston has the better bullpen here, even though they do
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: have some injuries in the bullpen, and they use a
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: lot of their relievers yesterday, so that's a little bit
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: of a problem. They don't have a whole lot of
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: bullpen arms right now, which I know is tomorrow is
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: gonna help them out because September call ups happen. He
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: can call up some bullpen help just to fill out
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: your bullpen with some more arms. Anaheim has the more
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: rested bullpen here. Houston still has the better bullpen, but
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: the bullpend not being rested for Houston, you kind of
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: can't really trust either bullpen coming into this game, but
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: I think Houston does have the significantly better starting pitcher
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: on the mound here. Jose Soriano's pitching for Anaheim. I mean,
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: he's not terrible three point eight five VRA, but his
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: one point three to six whip is definitely too high,
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: although he's been significantly better on the road with a
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: two point six nine ERA this month. Twenty one to
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: five strikeout walk ratio is pretty solid, so his command
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: numbers have been good this month, but he's been getting
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: He's just been getting hit for hard contact for the
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: most part. He has a five point oh six CRA
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: this month, which is not good, and he's alternated good
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: and bad start. So he gave up seven runs to Tampa.
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: Then he shut out the Dodgers five earned runs, although
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: it was at the A's Ballpark, which is a very
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: difficult part to pitch him. Tampa was at home, though,
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: so he wasn't He's not good at home either, so
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: he didn't do it in that A's game, and then
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: he went on the road and shut out Texas for
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: five and two thirds. Texas is not a good offense,
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: though Dodgers obviously are. But if the alternating good and
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: bad starts continues, as that means he wouldn't do well
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: in this game. As numbers against Houston not a huge
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: sample size, but his numbers aren't great in twenty six
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: at bats eight to four strike out walk ratio, two
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: sixty nine average allowed seven to ninety ops. He's going
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: up against Hunter Brown, and Brown obviously is the better
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: of these two pitchers here. Really good season for him.
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: Two point three seven ERA, one point zero one WHIP,
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: very similar home and away, slightly better at home two
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: point three to one ERA at home this month really
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: really good one point seven to one e RAH, twenty
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: eight to eight strikeout walk ratio, hasn't allowed more than
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: two earned runs in any outing. He's gone at least
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: six innings in all but one outing, which is on
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: the road against the Yankees. He's been really really good
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: this month. Allowed one and run in his last start
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: of the prior month as well, so he's definitely in
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: good for him again right now. Brown against Anaheim also
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: really good numbers and forty four at bats ten to
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: five strike a walk ratio. Isn't that impressive, but one
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: e two batting average allowed in five to sixty one ops,
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: so Anaheim does not hit Hunter Brown very well. The
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: money's I mean, the money line tanked on Houston though,
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: down for minus one eighty to minus one fifty eight,
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: and they are public eighty nine percent of tickets ninety
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash. I wouldn't read into that slight
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: cash discrepancy too much. It looks like the money is
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: coming in against Houston, which is pretty insane to think about.
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: If you do go with Anaheim, I think you would
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: have to actually even go full game on this because
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, at least they have the bullpen rest, so
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: maybe that can help beat to you. I mean, maybe
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: that could be somewhat to your advantage. I mean, I
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, that's pretty crazy. As far as the offenses,
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: Houston has tailed off of it, even though they still
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: have the better offense on the season. They've been struggling
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: a bit more recently, but they have the better offense
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: over Anaheim still, so Houston kind of does have they
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: He's still have the edge kind of across the board
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: in this game, though, so again, a lot of this
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: moneyline moves about what the price is money is coming
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: on the under as well, fifty nine percent of tickets
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: on the under, eighty five percent of the cash on
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: the under, flipping it all the way to seven and
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: a half juice to the under. I wouldn't want anything
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: to do with the bullpens as far as an under man.
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, you have a bad bullpen in Anaheim and
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: a Houston bullpen that basically has no arms left. So
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: I would not want to go under full game in
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: this my opinion. If you want to go under, I
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: would go first five innings under because I could see
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: Soriano doing okay, especially because it's on the road. Hunter Brown,
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: I do expect him to do well. I mean I
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: wouldn't want any I really wouldn't want any part of
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: Anaheim though, with that money move towards Anaheim. I and
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: maybe a first five under is the best way to
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: look at that. But again you'd have to go probably under. Well,
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: not again because I didn't say it yet, but I
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: usually say this, going under three and a half, I
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: don't really love that as much. In the first five
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: Detroit at Kansas City. Kansas City, they're still trying to
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: fight to get into the playoffs. Here, Man it's a
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: big series for them anyway, because it's against Detroit. It's
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: a divisional series. Detroit's ahead of them, obviously, still a
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: pretty big series for Detroit as well. Kansas City won
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: yesterday to even the series at won a piece, even
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: though they are not the better team. Obviously, Detroit has
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: the better offense. Kansas City has the better bullpen, though
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: bullpen usage about the same. Neither team is really that
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: overworked in the bullpen department here, and Detroit should have
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: the upper hand of the starting pitching matchup because they
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: do have Tark school ball pitching for them. Two point
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: two to eighty RAO point eight to seven whip for him,
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: He's been really good, obviously, a guy like him who
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: has pitched like full seasons at this point. I don't
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: think he's wearing down or anything like that. Dude to
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: the amount of innings that he's pitched. He's pitched more
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: innings than this multiple times in his career already. He's
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: actually slightly better on the road two point two era,
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: and this is in a pitcher friendly park in Kansas City.
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: I think the tales of Schoobl's demise are overstated. He
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: really only had one really bad start in here against Anaheim.
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: The other starts, he gave up three ear in runs.
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: He went seven innings against Minnesota in Philadelphia, A his
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: last start. He gave up six runs, but only one
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: of them was earned, and he had twelve strikeouts no walk,
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: so it was not exactly his fault. The fielding was
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: terrible behind him in that game. I was at the
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: A's stadium and he still pitched well, So school boy,
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think he's fine. He's got a three
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: point zero six ERA this month, forty one to six
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: strike at walk ratio, excellent command numbers. The home run
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: number went way up with six allowed this month, so
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: that's a little bit of a concern. But two were
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: in that Anaheim game, and two were at that A's stadium,
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: so I don't think he's gonna be anywhere near like.
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna be bad in this game
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: at all. He does well against Kansas City, of course,
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: their offense is very weak. One hundred and thirty three
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: at bats forty one to three strike at walk ratio
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: is absolute madness to eighteen batting average allowed, five to
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: eighty one oh ps, so he's pretty much dominated them.
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: All four home runs Kansas City has ever hit against them.
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: We're all from Salvador Perez, who's getting up there in
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: age too, but he does hit school wel well. But
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: basically Kansas City doesn't do anything against him otherwise. Michael
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: Walker is pitching for the Royals. He's having a good
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: season three point three to nine ERA, one point one
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: to eight WHIP. He's not a guy that comes in
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: and strikes guys out. He's a command pitcher. But he's
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: good in this stadium, good at home this year, two
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: point seven to one ERA. He's been in decent form
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: this month, although too many walks thirty three to eighteen
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio that worries me. But he hasn't
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: allowed with the three on runs in every in any outing,
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: and he'd allowed two or fewer in his previous four
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: outings up until his last outing, so he was pitching
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: really well. Kansas City had actually won five starts in
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: a row for him two point eight seventy RA this month.
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: The problem is he just faced Detroit for one thing,
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: so Detroit is gonna be recently familiar with them. I
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: don't know if that matters that much, because Detroit obviously
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: has faced him many times anyway, because they're in his division.
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: He pitched pretty well in that outing, still went six inn.
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: He's given three on runs on the road at Detroit,
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: four strikeouts, one walk, where Waka's not as good on
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: the road. But Waka again, he's been a walka. Oh no, wait,
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: what am I saying? Thirty three to eighteen? I'm an idiot?
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: That was ground ball rate. Everything's shift over one, shifted
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: over one. I'm an idiot. My apologies. I was like,
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: that's a lot of strikeouts for him. No, eighteen to
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: three strike out walk ratio this month, My apologies. I
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: my mistake completely. He's he hasn't He's hardly walked to
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: anybody this month. My mistake. So he is in good
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: form this month. Okay, So Waka, yeah, I mean this
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: is basically shaping up like it looks like this is
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: gonna be an under game. To me, man, that that
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: would be the way I'm That's the way I'm gonna
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: lean in this game. But Waka, I mean, yes, he
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: did his face Detroit. And the other concern with Waka
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: is that his start was pushed back. As you can
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: see here, he last pitched eight days ago. Because he
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: went on paternity leave. So, uh, Waka is coming back
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: from paternity leaving. There is like a thing in like
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: UFC fading the bay when a guy just had a baby.
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: The theory is that he's getting no sleep right now,
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: he's distracted by family stuff, so he won't do as well.
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: So that is a little bit of a concern with
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: Waka here, like is he gonna be distracted because of
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: the baby? I don't know. I mean, this is still
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: a big matchup though as numbers it gets Detroit are okay.
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: One hundred and seventy three at bats thirty six to
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: fourteen strike a walk ratio isn't exactly that good, so
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: he's somewhat of a walk in that respect. Two sixty
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: batting average allowed, seven to thirty two o ps. That's
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: okay given that Detroit's offense is pretty good. But again,
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: even though there's the fading the baby thing, I still
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: think the under is the way to look in this game.
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: But it's teetering on seven. The money's come in a
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: bit on the under seven and a half. It's seventy
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: eight percent of tickets on the under, eighty five percent
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the under. That is the way
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: I'm lean though in this game, and the money seems
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: to be coming in on Kansas City, So the professional
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: money seems to think Waka will be fine in this game.
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: Eighty seven percent of tickets only eighty four percent of
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: the cash on Detroit down from minus one seventy five
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: to minus one sixty six on the money line. So
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: playing Kansas City is a big underdog. I mean, I
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: could see the reasoning for that being that you could
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: wind up getting a bolt like a pitching duel here
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: between the starters, and you could wind up with a
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: bullpend battle here as well. So it's expected to be
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: a low scoring game. That does mean inherently each run
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: is worth a little bit more, so that might be
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: some value playing the underdog Barrow Theo's still my preference
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: in that game is probably the full game under the
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: seven and a half if you can get it at
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty or the seven Yankees on the verge
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: of sweeping the White Sox. I mean, does that mean
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: the Yankees will overlook the White Sox after beating them
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: up in the series. Maybe, although yesterday I went to
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: extra innings, but they do have a potential look ahead
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: here because they started a big series against Houston on Tuesday,
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: and then they faced Toronto Detroit and then the Red Sox,
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: so they have a bunch of much bigger series upcoming
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: here that are not gonna be as easy as these.
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: There is the potential they overlook the White Sox in
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: the spot. Yankees obviously have the way better offense here,
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: though they do have the better bulp and though neither
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: bullpen is good. Yankees used four relief pitchers yesterday. White
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: Sox used four as well, so the bullpen usage is
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: slightly high as well, and the bullpens may very well
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: have to enter this game. Because you got Luis Heel
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: pitching for the Yankees. He tends to not go that
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: deep into his outings because he walks too many guys
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: and he gets a lot of strikeouts, so he's inefficient
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: with his pitches. He's just he's coming back from injury.
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: I mean he didn't start pitching this season until very recently.
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: I think he came back this past month. He's got
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: a three point seven five ERA so far, which is good,
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: but a one point seven to one whip is way
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: too high. So again, like I said, he's wild, he's
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: walking way too many guys. He's been really bad on
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: the road six point two to three ERA on the road.
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: That is a concern, and so is his twenty two
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: to seventeen strikeout walk ratio and the fact that he
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: hasn't gone more than five and a third in any
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: of his outings. That's not good. And he's walked three
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: or more in all but one of his outings. So
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: he's an exactly pitching well man. I understand he's allowed
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: two or fewer and runs in his last four outings,
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: which is all but his first outing, But you can't
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: keep walking guys like this and not allowing runs. So
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: even though I know he's a strikeout pitcher, he gets
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: a lot of strikeouts, but even his strikeout rate isn't
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: exactly that high right now, so he is a concern.
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: Only four of the White Sox citters has seen him before.
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: They've done okay against him. Four strikeouts, one walk, two
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: fifty batting average nine to seventy four. Ohps. Corey Lee
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: has a home run off him, So we'll see. But
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: he'll may actually struggle a little bit here. He's just
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: his R. I mean, he's not as good as his
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: ra looks right now. Man, he's going up against Martine Perez,
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: who is the veteran, and he is not a strikeout pitcher.
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: He is a junk pitcher. Who He's a guy that
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: I just constantly have a tendency to want to fade
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: because I'm like, he's not as good as his numbers look.
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: And again, he's not as good as his numbers look
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: right now. This season he came back from injury not
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: that long ago either, So we have two guys who
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: haven't pitched that much this year. Small sample sizes two
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: point oh two ERA for him, point nine to five WHIP.
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: So yes, he has actually been good so far. He's
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: been good at home one point twenty nine. ERA came
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: back actually, uh, he pitched, I forgot he pitched early
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: in the season actually, and then he got hurt on April,
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: I guess. And then he came back and he's made
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: three starts in August and he has a point five
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: to seven e R and fourteen to two strikeout walk
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: ratio since then. He didn't walk anybody in his two
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: full outings him went five and a third and then
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: seven innings. So it's actually good to see that his
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: pitch count is ramping up each outing, which means that
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: they're putting their trust in him, that letting him go further.
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: He's getting stronger, so that's actually a good sign for Perez. Again,
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: didn't walk anybody in those outings, only allowed one hit
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: against Kansas City and seven innings shutting them out. Didn't
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: allow any runs in those two outings and only four hits.
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: It's a good sign. Although it was against Atlanta, I
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: mean they were mediocre offense, and then Kansas City is
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: a bad offense. So Perez is actually pitching one. I'mbers
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: against the Yankees are not terrible. In seventy four bats
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: eighteen to eleven, starting a walk right Shire, that's not good.
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: Two thirty average is very low, though in a seven
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: to seventy five ohps is a little bit high. He's
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: a lot of four home runs, two of them from Stanton.
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: But Perez, I mean, as insane as it actually sounds,
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: I think there actually might be value with the White
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: Sox in this game. The Yankees are down for minus
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: one ninety to minus one seventy one, eighty eight percent
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: of tickets, only sixty five percent of the cash, so
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: the money is actually kind of strongly coming in on
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: the White Sox, and based on what I just showed you,
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: I could see the argument for it. I mean Perez,
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's the more I guess proven picture, and
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: he's the picture who's in better form right now. It
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: has better control right now. So I mean, I know
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: it sounds weird, but maybe that's the way to look it.
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: Maybe you do it in the first five innings because
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: I know the White Sox bullpend they're really bad, so
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: they maybe had a disadvantage later in the game. Although
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: full game, I mean, I guess you could still do
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: it because the bullpen is really that good. But I
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: think for first five innings, maybe a White Sox run
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: line actually kind of does make some sense. The money
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: is coming on the under all though the totals at
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: nine seventy six percent of tickets on the over sixty
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over. I worry about
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: an under a little bit because I actually don't necessarily
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: trust either starting pitcher here. But in a way it
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: makes sense if you think about the fact that the
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: White Sox offense is really bad and the Perez has
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: actually been in good form right now. So I guess
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: do with all that information what you will, but I
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: actually think probably the best way to lean in that
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: game is a White Sox first five inning run line.
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: Sounds insane. I know Colorado is hosting. The Cubs are
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: on the verge of sweep in Colorado. I believe, yes,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: so Cubs obviously they have something to play for here.
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: Obviously the Yankees have something to play for as well,
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: because they're trying to win the division and make sure
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: they make the playoffs. The White Sox will still show up,
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: by the way, in that game, because you have the
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: Yankees playing in your house, you know you're gonna show
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: up for that. I would say probably the same thing
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: with color I mean, you have the Cubs coming into
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: your place, it's still pretty big, You'll probably still show up.
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: Cubs only won by one run yesterday, so it was
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: a pretty low scoring game. Which I don't remember if
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: I said I lean to the under in that game
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: or not, just so I don't even remember. Maybe I
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: didn't say that. I don't remember. I think the game
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: before that I said that and it didn't happen the
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: under first five in the previous game. But whatever. Chicago
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: does have a series against the Braves coming up tomorrow.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: So they're gonna return home from a long road trip,
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: so hint, hint, it might be a spot to look
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: for Atlanta in that game, although you're gonna have to
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: go with Spencer Stride or tomorrow if you're doing that.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: He's been awful recently, although he's way better than that,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: so we'll say. But anyway, Cubs, will they overlook Colorado
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: because they're on the verge of a sweep here? I
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: don't know, because the Cubs are still fighting, man, They're
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: trying to make sure they make the playoffs. They are
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: potentially still in the mix for their Division two. They
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: do have one of their better pitchers on them, Matthew Boyd.
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: But the issue with boy is is he starting to
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: wear down. He's up to one hundred and fifty three
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: and a thirty innings pitched and he hasn't pitched that
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: many innings since twenty nineteen with Detroit, so that's a
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: bit of a concern. Man. It's actually crazy that Boyd
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: has been so good the last two years. Like, I
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: don't know what happened, even though Cleveland he only made
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: eight starts last year. I don't know what happened because
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: his career numbers are still not even that good, and
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: like who gets better when they're thirty four thirty three
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: years old, something was discovered with Boyd. I don't know, man,
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: but he's having a good season whatever it is. Two point,
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: Maybe he's cheating two point like Ryan Nelson two point
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: eight two ERA one point oh six whip. He's been good.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: He's been a little bit worse on the road three
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: point four to four ERA. We don't know how he's
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: going to adapt a course field here though. His numbers
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: this month are a little bit shaky though, like I said,
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: he might be starting to wear down a little bit.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: Four point twenty five ERA, twenty seven to seven strike
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio did poorly. Last two starts are pretty
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: bad against Milwaukee and San Francisco gave him not runs
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: across ten and two thirds in he's pitched in those
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: two outis walked three apiece in those outings. I mean
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: doing badly against Milwaukee is one thing is they're a
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: good lineup, but San Francisco on the road, bad lineup,
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: pitcher friendly park, that is not good. So Boyd is
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: actually not a good form right now. Rockies haven't seen
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: a ton of them. Twenty nine at bats. They only
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: have one extra base hit against a double from Arcia,
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: nine strikeouts, no walks, but they have a two seventy
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: six average five eighty six OPS is not very high
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: though at all, So maybe Boyd'll do okay here, but
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: it is course field, and he's not a good form all.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: The Colorado's offense is obviously terrible. The Cubs have the
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: better bullpen and the better ra offense obviously here, although
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: Cubs offense has not been as good over the last
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: few weeks man they've been struggling. Tanner Gordon is pitching
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: for Colorado and he's actually not been that terrible recently.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: He's got a six point four to four ERA and
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: one point six to five WHIP on the season. Obviously
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: that's not good. He's somehow actually better in coursefield four
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: point seven eighty RA, and he's allowed one ear run
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: in each of his last two outings against the Dodgers
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: and Houston, and in the start before that he went
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: five innings allowing three on runs to Arizonta, so he
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: actually pitched decently at all. Three of those starts had
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: a what is that a ten to five strike out
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, which isn't that good, but he pitched pretty well,
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: picked up a win in all three outings against three
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: pretty good lineups, and two of them at home at
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: Course Field. So interesting in Gordon, he's actually an okay
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: form over those starts, even though he was really bad
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: earlier in the month, and as an eight point one
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: this month, seventeen to five strike out walk ratio is
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: not bad though, so he is actually in better form
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: now than you would think. Numbers against the Cubs aren't
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: good though, but it's only a nineteen at bat sample
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: but one strikeout, no walks. PCA has a home run
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: off and Pete crow Armstrong three sixteen average for the
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: Cubs against him eight forty two ops. This is an
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: interesting game overall. Man, the money's coming in against the Cubs.
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: I could see the argument for it being that they
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: might overlook Colorado here, Boyd could be wearing down Gordon
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: is actually the picture is in the better form right now.
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: If you were gonna do that, I would say probably
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: take the shot with the first five innings there and
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: avoid the Colorado bullpen, because Colorado's bullpen, I mean they're bad.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: They used four relievers yesterday, so I wouldn't really want
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: to deal with them. The Cubs bullpen is actually a
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: little bit more rested, so I would worry about that
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: a little bit. Cubs down for minus two thirty five
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: to twenty six on the money line, ninety percent of tickets,
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: only seventy three percent of the cash, and the money
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: is also coming in in the under, dropping it to
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: eleven seventy nine percent of tickets on the over, fifty
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: eight percent of cash on the over. Probably the feeling
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: is that, well, boyd is still a pretty good pitcher,
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: and Gordon is not really as bad as he looks.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: Maybe that's the sentiment there, But I think the best
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: way to play it, just like I said with the
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: Yankees games, to actually go first five innings run line
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: plus whatever, the half run whatever it is. With Colorado there,
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: maybe you can even get a bigger run line there.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: This video again taking a while. Man to get through
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: all this baseball, I know, I get autistic. I have
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: to talk about every baseball game, Giants against the Orioles.
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: The Giants, I mean, neither of these teams really have
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: anything to play for at this point. They both know
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: that they're out of it. The Giants, however, did win
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: six games in a row, and then they finally lost
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: yesterday badly, eleven to one to Baltimore. And I think
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: when a team is on a roll like that and
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: they've won a bunch of games in a row like
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: that and they lose, that tends to be a momentum
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: stopper and it will slide and hang them over into
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: the next game. So I think this is a bad
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: spot for San Francisco because they did just lose that
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: win streak there. San Francisco does have the better bullpen.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: They only use mostly like longish relief guys yesterday, so
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: their bullpen's in fairly decent shape here as well, So
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: keeping that in mind, the bullpen is definitely better. Baltimore's
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: just rested, though only just one relief pitcher yesterday, So Baltimore,
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, their bullpen's not in the horrible shape. Baltimore
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: actually I believe has the better offense over San Francisco,
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: though neither team is good offensively. Actually Baltimore's kind of
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: mid tier. They're better than I thought, So yeah, Baltimore
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: does have the better offense. I kind of trust Baltimore
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: is starting pitcher more too, with Tomoyuki Sugano pitching four
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: point ho sixty RA, one point two to seven whip
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: isn't that great. But he's had an up and down season.
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: He was good at the beginning of the season, had
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: a low in the middle of the season. He's been
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: good again recently. I mean he's a guy that has
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: had he's had a bit of an unfamiliarity edge, at
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: least early in the season because this is his first
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: year in Major League baseball. But again, is he gonna
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: be wearing down a little bit because throwing all these
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: innings you're not used to going that deep into a season,
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: because I think the seasons are shorter in Japan, where
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: he came over from. But he's not pitching badly recently.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: He does have a four ERA on the road, so
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: it's slightly better than his home RA this month two
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: point eight six ERA and twenty to six strike a
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: walk ratios. He's been good this month. You give up
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: three or fewer earned runs in every outing actually going
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: all the way back to early July, except his most
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: recent outing. He gave it four earned runs and a
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: close loss to the Red Sox, but that was the
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: second time in a row he faced the Red Sox.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox had just seen him, so it was
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a disadvantage for him there. And
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: we know the Red Sox can hit, so Sugano made
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: you better here. Again, San Francisco has never seen him
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: before and they're a weak lineup, so I think he
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: does have an edge here in the unfamiliarity aspect of
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: this that San Francisco has not seen him before. So
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: I actually think Sugano will do okay here, and maybe
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: he'll actually get fired up because he gets to face
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: Justin Verlander, who's obviously a Hall of Fame pitcher here
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: he basically should already be in the Hall of Fame.
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: I don't know why he's still pitching, man, because this
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: season hasn't been good for him. I mean, he's in
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: his forties, he's still trying to do it. He loves
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: the game, man, it's for the love of the game.
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: He's Kevin Costner man. Although it's not gonna be that dramatic.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: I don't think for him. He's not gonna go out
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: there and throw a no hitter or whatever, a perfect
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: game whatever it was in the sorry spoiler, whatever it
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: was in the in that movie. Four point four to
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: seven E Ra one point It's a decent movie, by
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: the way. Four point four to seventy RA one point
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: four to three WHIP not great numbers this season for Verlanders.
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: Whip is definitely too high. He's better at home though,
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: four point four e RA. He was good his last
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: time out. Two of his last three starts have been good.
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: He's actually been alternating good and bad start, so he
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: has a four point two to eighty RA this month
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: twenty seven to five strike out walk ratio. His last
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: start was impressive because he did it against the Cubs,
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: but we know their lineup is with struggling recently, and
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: I think I gave out the Cubs in that game
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: and loss. I think that was against Boyd if I
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: remember correctly, so very unfortunate there. Uh he went six
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: in his game of touring runs in that one. But
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: he got lit up at San Diego pretty much to
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: start before that, had a bad start at home against Washington.
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: If he starts to go and then was good at
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: home against Tampa, so Verlander he's pretty hard to figure
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: out right now. Man. He sells the ability to pitch
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: fairly well, but he could do badly on any given
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: out in Baltimore in any given outing. Baltimore only has
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: three hitters I've ever seen him before, and they're actually
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: six for twelve off him, although only one extra RaSE
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: hit a triple from Henderson, five hundred batting average one
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: thousand and one sixty seven OPS two, zero strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: And of course, neither of these teams really have anything
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: to play for it this point, they're both out of it.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: But I'm gonna lean to Baltimore in this game man,
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: maybe first five innings, because San Francisco does have a
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: better bullpen. The money seems like it's coming in on
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: the Giants up for minus one twenty eight to minus
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: one thirty three, fifty six percent of tickets, sixty eight
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them. But I think the
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup favors Baltimore, and I think San Francisco
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: potentially being hung over after losing their win streak there.
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: My lead would be to Baltimore. First five innings, at
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: least you could fire on maybe the money line there
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: Texas at the A's, the A's are on the version
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: of getting swept by Texas here. Of course, the A's
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: don't really have anything to play for except that it's
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: a divisional matchup here, so they might show up for
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: that reason. Texas trying to still potentially make the playoff year.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: They're potentially still in the running for the division here
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: the one four in a row. But are they going
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: to overlook the A's and look towards their next opponent,
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: which is Arizona. Maybe not. I mean Arizona, They're not
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: going anywhere this year. That's an interleague game, but it
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: will be I think Merrill Kelly will pitch in that.
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: Uh well, actually maybe he won't because he pitched yesterday,
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: so maybe he won't. That'd be crazy if Kelly gets
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: to pitch against his former team. I think he might
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: miss that series though, because they think he pitched yesterday,
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: So I don't know. Texas in the A's though Texas
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: obviously has the better bullpen, A's have the better offense.
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: Is a huge disparity that this is like pitching versus hitting.
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: Epitomize Here, Texas used three relievers yes today, their bullpen's
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: pretty well rested. A's bullpen is actually fairly well arrested
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: as well. But obviously, again Texas has the way better bullpen.
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: Texas has a very weak offense though we're in a pitch.
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: We're in a hit or friendly ballpark though, and Texas
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: you gotta say they have the better starter though here
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: with Jacob de Grom pitching, he's having a great season
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: and even though he's fairly old as well, two point
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: seven to ninety ra point nine to three whip, he's
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: been good. A little bit worse on the road though,
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: three point four to sixty R in the road. Maybe
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: he'll struggle in this stadium. I mean, this stadium is
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: really difficult on some pitchers man, and he's been getting
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: no run support, so that's been one of the issues.
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: He's pitching fairly well. Four point one five ERA is
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: exactly great this month, but it was mostly because he
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: had one really bad starting inst Seattle. I mean it
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: was pretty bad. He had two bad starts in a row, actually,
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: But since then he's been good. He's a lot three
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: or fewer in runs in his last three outings against Philly,
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: Toronto Anaheims, so some decent offenses or good offenses in there.
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: So he's pitching better again. As a twenty five to
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: six strike a walk ratio this month, that's good. It's
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: a high strikeout rate, but again the run support has
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: kind of been a problem for him two as his
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: team has lost seven of his last eight outings. A
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: couple of them were bad, yes, but most of them
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: it was because he wasn't getting any run support. His
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: numbers against the As are pretty good in fifty two
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: at bats twenty to two strike at walk ratio to
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: twelve average six forty five ops, so he has been
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: good against the A's for the most part. J T.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: Ginn is pitching for the A's, He's not pitching very well.
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: Four point nine to six ERA, one point three to
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: eight WHIP. He's been really bad in this stadium six
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: point four to eighty RA. Not really good this month
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: at all, seven point one seventy R RAY though. He's
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: a high strikeout rate with twenty seven strikeouts, but also
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: a lot of walks eleven walks. I mean, I'm I've
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: never really seen him as that much of a strikeout pitcher,
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: but maybe I'm wrong about that. Maybe he is. A
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: strike out rate is actually pretty high this year, but
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: his walk rate has been way too high this month. Again,
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: he's allowing too many runs, so I don't think we
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: could trust gain His numbers against Texas as bad of
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: an offense as they are, he hasn't been good against
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: Texas and thirty one at bats three to four strike
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: out walk RACEIO three eighty seven batting average allowed in
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: one thousand and one sixty seven ops. His matchup numbers
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: don't look very good, but the money seems to be
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: coming in on the A's. I mean, I don't I
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: can't really figure it. Uh, Texas down for minus one
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: fifty one of minus one, thirty six nine percent of tickets,
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: only seventy four percent of the cash on them, money
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: coming in strongly in the under, to flipping it from
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: nine and a half juice to the over, to being
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: juiced to the under fifty percent of tickets on the
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: over ninety five percent of the cash on the under.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: So the money coming in again on the A's and
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: on the under. And that almost seems counterintuitive too, because
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: you think if it goes under, that benefits Texas because
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: they're the team with the better pitching. I mean, I
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: still think de Gram matches up better against Guinea. He
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: has a better matchup numbers than whatever, So I mean,
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: I would potentially still have a slight lean to Texas
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: in that game, but I don't want to join a.
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: You know, obviously public road favorite there that the money
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: is coming in against, So I don't really want to
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: do that, but it's just interesting to see that. It's
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: very bizarre and yeah, the under I mean also kind
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: of bizarre because I don't know how you trust like Gin,
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: trust the A's yeah, trust the a's bullpen. Honest, see
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: how you trust any of that Arizona Dodgers. I'm actually
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: gonna have a play in that. So we'll skip that
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: and we'll go to Atlanta Philadelphia in the ESPN Sunday
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: Night game. This is a good one, man. This is
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: actually a pretty interesting game. It's a big divisional matchup
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia on the verge of sweeping Atlanta. You know Whatlanta
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: is gonna show up though, because it's a Sunday night
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: game against the team that's atop their division. So you
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: know that's gonna motivate Atlanta even though they're out of it.
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: This is the type of game that the team that's
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: out of it will show up for and extra motivation
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: because they're trying to avoid the sweep. Is Philadelphia gonna
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: overlook Atlanta? They they might because they have Milwaukee up next.
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: That's a big look, I had spot for Philadelphia here. Man.
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: You know, I'm considering adding a play on this game.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: To be honest, man, I'm thinking about it right now.
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: It would be on Atlanta if I did. I mean,
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: I know, Philly dominated Atlanta in the first game of
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: the series, but they haven't really dominated them otherwise in
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: the series. Each of the other two games were a
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: one run win for them, and last night it's like
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: I told you, it was in extra innings. I almost said
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: overtime in my Atlanta play lost there. Philly has the
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: worst bullpen of the two, but the usage is better
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: off for them, so they have less bullpend usage. Atlanta
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: use almost all their relievers. They only used four of
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: their leaders for single digit pitch counts, so those guys
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: are probably available again today, So maybe Atlanta's bullpen is
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: still okay in this game. I mean, it is a
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: bad spot for Philadelphia. It is a look ahead spot.
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: They might overlook Atlanta in this final game. Here. Philadelphia
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: has already done what they set out to do in
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: the series here, and I think Atlanta does have the
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: better starting pitcher. Philly has the better offense, that's obvious,
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: but the starting pitching Hurston Waldrop the rookies pitching for
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: the Braves. He's been excellent so far man point ninety
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: ra point nine three whip. I mean, obviously that's unsustainable,
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: but he's been really good, only slightly worse on the
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: road one point six e ra. He's allowed zero one
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: or one in every single outing. He's gonna at least
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: five and a third in every single outing. Has a
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: twenty four to seven strike a walk ratio. He's not
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: a huge strikeout guy necessarily, but it's mostly because his
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 1: last outing he had no strikeouts. And now is that
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: a cause for concern? Maybe he hallowed eight hits in
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: that outing against Miami. Maybe it was just a bad
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: day for him, though, I mean, the rest of his
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: starts are all really good, So I'm gonna chalk that
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: up to being a little bit of an outlier for now.
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: And yes, I know he's facing Philadelphia. They were a
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: good lineup. They're gonna be the best lineup he's face
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: so far. So yes, that is a slight concern because
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: the best lineup's faced so far as Cincinnati. And that
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: was his worst outing ish although that was his first
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: outing of the season, I only had four strikeouts and
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: two walks since any fas in Miami twice, White Sox, Cleveland,
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: and those are very weak lineups for the most part,
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: So Phillies are gonna be the best lineup he's facing.
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: But he does have the upper edge, and that he
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: does have an edge, I should say, and that they
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: have never seen him before. So when you have a
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: talented young picture like this or the off hasn't seen before,
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: there is a little bit of an advantage to that.
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: Starting pitcher Jesus Lozardo is pitching for Phillies. The Phillies.
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: He's been all over the place this year. Man. He
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: started out really hot and then he was really bad
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: in the middle of the season. I think he was
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: tipping his pitches. Then he started pitching better again. Now
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: it looks like he's in his head again, as he
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: got thrown out of the last game for arguing pitches
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: in the fifth inning. He seems like he's kind of
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 1: he's losing his uh, he's losing control of his mind. Man.
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: He's got a four point two to three ERA this year,
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: one point three two whip I mean, very mediocre numbers.
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: He's worse at home four point nine to two ERA
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: in homes he's significantly worse at home. Actually, this month,
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: pretty good numbers overall, three point eight six e RA,
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: thirty five to seven strike a walk ratio. He has
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: a high strikeout rate. But again that last outing he
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: struggled against the Mets. It was a big divisional game,
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: and he walked three guys got thrown out of the game.
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: He was still probably about to be out of the
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: game anyway, though, because through eighty seven pitches in four innings,
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: and that's about the pitch count where he usually leaves.
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: So maybe that's potentially why he got thrown out to
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: maybe try to pump his team up. It didn't work.
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: They lost the game, not only by one, but he
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: gave it four and runs in five innings. So not
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: not a good sign for him really. Though. His numbers
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: against the Braves were all right though, on one hundred
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: and thirteen at bats thirty six to eleven strike a
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, two thirty nine average, allowed six eighty seven ops.
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: So maybe I'll skip this one, but I do lean
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: to the Braves in this one. Man, let me see
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: what we're looking at here? Where's the game? Where's the
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: National League? Oh? For some reason, they must have flexed
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: this or something into the night game because it's second
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: on the board. Even though it became the night game.
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: On the money he actually came in on Philly. They're
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: up from minus one forty eight to minus one sixty three,
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: seventy two tickets on them, eighty three percent of the
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: cash on them. I would disagree with that move. If
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: you want to avoid the fact that Atlanta's bullpen is
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: a little bit unrested, you could go with Atlant just
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: in the first five innings, take them run line. I
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: would probably either do that or maybe Atlanta full game.
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: You i'dn't be able to just play on the run
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: line in the full game, play them to keep this
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: game close. I mean they've done in the last two
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: games at least two, so that is actually the way
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: that I probably need in the game. Either Atlanta run
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: line in the first five innings I almost at first half,
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: first five innings, or full game money coming into the
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: under as well, sixty six percent of tickets on the
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: over seventy two percent of the cash on the under.
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: All though we see it up to almost nine eight
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: and a half juice to the over here, I could
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: see the argument for the under just being that Luzardo
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: has at least been better this month except for his
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: last outing. Maybe he'll pitch better against the team than
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: he matches up better against up against the talented rookie.
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: But if you do the under, I would only do
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: that in the first five innings as well, because the
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: bullpens are a bit questionable. Let's go to my plays here, man, Oh,
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry that was the breakdown. I keep forgetting to
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: throw my cool graphics out there with the mess up
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: lookings Celtics logo there. Let's go to best bets. We're
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: gonna have two and then I already gave out the
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: one that I have in college football. But I'll briefly
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: hit college football and then get out of here. We're
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: gonna go under again. I know Brewers and Blue Jays.
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: I know we went under in the first game. Got screwed.
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: You go under eight and a half. We're under eight here,
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: and I don't know which one I actually prefer. Eight
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: and a half. You have to pay a little bit
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: more for get that little extra half inning though, or
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: half half inning half run there, But how much is
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: that really worth when eight is not a key number? Though?
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: So I don't know if you want to go under eight,
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: you could do that as well at a better price,
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: but we're gonna go under in this game. I like
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching matchup, and I think the bullpens are okay.
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, we're not dealing with the best bullpens here,
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: but they're all right. They're mid tier bullpens. I mean Toronto, yeah,
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, I know they're a era Bullpenny Ara is
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: worse than four, which isn't that great, and Milwaukee is
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: actually better than that. Milwaukee is actually tenth than Bullpenny RA.
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: So we'll we'll stick with the full game here and
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: hope that the starting pitchers get us deeper into the
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: out here. Toronto didn't use that many relievers yesterday, so
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: their bullpen I think is in right shape. I think
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: they have some of their better relievers available in this one,
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: although at this one I don't really necessarily trust their bullpen.
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee used three relievers yesterday as well. I mean their
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: bullpend again. Yeah, I mean, I guess you could argue
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: you could worry about their bullpens a little bit because
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: their bullpend talent isn't that great at this point. But
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: we're still gonna go with it anyway, though, if you
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: want to go first five innings, you could do that
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: as well. But I'm hoping that the starting pitching gets
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: us deeper into this outing. Man. We got two pretty
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: good starters on the hill, and that's really the crux
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: of this play here with Brandon Wood Drift pitching for
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: the Brewers here three point one ERA point eighty seven whip,
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: very low, whip very good. He's been better on the
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: road too, so we have a good home road split
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: for him here, at least in the small ish sample
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: size this season so far, two point four two ERA
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: on the road. I know he was worse in his
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: last couple of outings. He failed to make it five
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: innings against the Cubs, gave up five runs against Arizona.
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: But I think he'll bounce back. He still has a
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: thirty four to nine strike a walk ratio this month,
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: still in an eight to one strike a walk ratio
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: against Arizona. I think he got a little bit unlucky
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: in that one for Era this month, I know, but
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: I mean he couldn't continue pitching quite as well as
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: he was when he first came back. But he's back, man.
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: He's been pitching basically the way that he was before
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: his injury. After missing an entire season, he's still pitching
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: really well, and he started so late in the season,
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: he's not gonna have started to wear down yet, which
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: is another reason why I kind of like the starting
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: pitching match. I think that's kind of the case for
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: both of these starters here and Woodrooff. Milwaukee's won all
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: but one of his starts, just that one against the
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: Cubs they lost, they still won his last one. He
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: got the wins still, so maybe that'll give him some confidence.
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: They won eight of his nine starts. Toronto has barely
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: seen him before, so that's another thing that I like
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: about this match up here woodroof Toronto's zero for eight
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: off him with the three strikeers of the one of
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: the batters listed here is Max Sures or for two
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: of him, so of course he's not gonna bat so
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: we could throw him out. But even if you don't
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: include that, var Show is the only hitter who's seen
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: him before, and he's zero for six with three strikeouts,
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: so that makes it seem even worse for Toronto, and
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: that means Woodruff is unfamiliar to Toronto, so that should
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: give him a little bit of an extra advantage because
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: they haven't seen him before. Max Schurzer, of course, is
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: pitching for Toronto. We know he's a veteran, but unlike Verlander,
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: he's only one year younger than Verlander. Sures is pitching
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: better than Verlander right now. Man Sures has been good
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: three point eight two ERA at one point oh six whip.
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: He's been a little bit worse at home, but it's
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: not that significant. A split a four ERA at home
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: this month two point six to one e ra uh.
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: Toronto's won four of his five starts, including one against
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: the Cubs where he held him to a one run
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: in seven innings. He's got a twenty two to eight
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio this month, so he's not walking
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: a lot of guys. His strikeout rate is down. I mean,
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: that's what you expect with the guy who's his age. Yeah.
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: Have the home run ball is a little bit of
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: a concern. He's a lot a lot of home runs
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: so far this season, but his the command numbers are good.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: He's not allowing a lot of hits either, so he's
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: not putting a lot of guys on base. Prior to
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: his last start, where he gave a four earned runs
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: against Minnesota, but on two of them runs only a
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: lot four hits. He still had five strikeouts one walk,
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: so he still wasn't even that bad in that outing.
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: Prior to that, he'd allowed two or one and run
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: in every outing this month, he's gone at least six
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: innings in every out and going all the way back
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: to the last outing on July, and again he basically
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: didn't pitch after his first outing of the season. He
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 1: didn't pitch again until late June. So I don't think
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: he's gonna be wearing down yet either. And he's a
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: guy who's used to going deep into seasons, of course,
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: but although he's old now so you don't have to
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: worry about that a little bit, but not yet. I
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: don't think he's only throwing like sixty something innings so
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: far this season. So against the Brewers, he has decent
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: numbers in the past seventy four at best, twenty two
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: to four strike a walk race is quite good. Two
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: fifty seven batting average allowed and seven to forty one
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: ohps allowed. Really, only Yelich has a lot of numbers
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: against him, and he's done well thirteen for forty two
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: three on runs eleven strikeouts still though a lot of
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 1: strikeouts three walks, But nobody else in this lineup has
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: really seen him that much or does particularly well against
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 1: him anyway, So sures are I think just with one
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: guy that hits him, I think he should be able
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: to do well here. So we're looking undering this game.
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: Where are we looking here? Where's the game at? Should
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: be in the interleague slate somewhere? Right? What am I
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: looking at here? There? It is? So the money came
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: in on the under. It dropped from eight and a
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 1: half to now eight juice to the under here, So
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: do with that information what you will. Fifty three percent
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: of tickets on the under, seventy eight percent of cash
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: on the under. Looks like the money line dropped on
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: Toronto for minus one seventeen to minus one oh five.
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: But they have fifty two percent of tickets sixty one
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash coming in on them, So it
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: is possible that the money is coming in on Toronto here.
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: Now Toronto is on the verge of getting swept here. Though.
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: Remember Milwaukee has a big series coming up next against Philadelphia,
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: so I know this is a big interleague series too,
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: but they might overlook Toronto in the final game after
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: beating them the first couple of games. So I don't
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: really disagree with the Toronto side here either. So we'll
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: see what happens in this game, man. And then we're
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: gonna go Dodgers run line, even though I know this
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: one is public. You can get the minus one and
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: a half. I know they're at home, so a lot
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: of times the Dodgers, I mean a lot of times
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: you don't want to go with the home team, excusally
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: on the run line because they don't get the final
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 1: at bat in the ninth thinning if they're already ahead.
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: But the Dodgers typically score a ton of runs at home. Man. Yes,
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: they're public eighty four percent of tickets, only eighty two
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash up from minus two six to
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: minus two twelve. But I just think this is too
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: much of a mismatch, man. So that's the way I'm
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: looking in this game, Arizona at the Dodgers. The Dodgers
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: are on the virgin getting swept here, man, so I
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna have extra motivation. They've only scored one
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: run in this series. And yes, Arizona obviously is stepping
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 1: up for this game because they're playing the Dodgers. I mean,
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 1: even though Arizona's out of it, when you play the Dodgers,
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: it's a huge series for you. But the Dodgers really
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: have something to play for him. Man, they're trying to
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: avoid a sweep now, which is embarrassing. At home. They're
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 1: trying to keep pace with San Diego. Here is the
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: one game ahead of them in the division. Dodgers. I
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: know they've been playing fairly poorly last couple of months,
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: but they got to do this here, man, And I
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: think they match up across the board in this game.
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: I think they have the advantage. So I think we
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: got to go with it here and then. And by
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: the way, I forgot to mention Toronto and Milwaukee, although
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: it's fairly obvious both of those teams have something to
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: play for. Although Toronto has more to play for it
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: trying to hang on for the al least, Milwaukee has
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: more padding in the NL Central. So do with that
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 1: information what you will. But the Dodgers, they actually have
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen over Arizona. Arizona's bullpen is not good.
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 1: Both bullpen's not a whole lot of usage. Although the
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: bullpen rest actually favors the Dodgers slightly in this game
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: as well. Dodgers have the way better offense, and that's
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: the thing. They've scored one run in this series so
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: far at home, which is ridiculous. Like I know, I
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: thought the Dodgers are bounced back yesterday with some offensive output.
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, you're talking about the team that scores the
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: most runs per game at all Baseball at home here,
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: that's the Dodgers. So I'm expect them to breakout offensively
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 1: in this game. They got a bad bullpend to face here,
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: and they got to face Brandon Fott, who is not
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: having a good season for the Diamondbacks. Five point two
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 1: to four ERA, one point three to seven whip. He's
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 1: got a seven point zero six roadyray, so he is
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: horrendous on the road. Nineteen of the twenty two home
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 1: runs he's allowed to been on the road in fewer innings.
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 1: He's getting absolutely lit up on the road man. So
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 1: that's one bad thing with FOTU. Fot has not been
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 1: good this month either, with a five point eight one
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 1: ERA nineteen to seven stridgle walk ratio really bad. His
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: last downing only lasted two to two thirds and gave
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: him six earned runs to Milwaukee, so he got pretty
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: much bombed in that start. Hasn't been that great man,
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 1: and so he's not a good form right now against
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers. Not good numbers, ninety seven at bats, they
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: have familiarity with him to twenty two to seven straggle
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: walk ratio isn't that bad, but a two eighty nine
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 1: batting average allowed nine to fourteen oh ps. He's allowed
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: seven home runs to them to apiece from Bets and Confort,
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I think Fot is gonna give up some
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: runs here. And he's going up against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who's
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: having a good season for the Dodgers two point ninety
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: r one point oh seven whip in his second season
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: over from Japan. He is worse than home, but I
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 1: mean it's not as significant as those home roads spits
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 1: for FOT Yamamoto three point five six e RA at home,
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: that's still pretty good. He's been better this month than
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: FOT at least four point two for our era isn't
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 1: that good. Twenty four to nine strike a walk ratio
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 1: is not terrific either, but he had five walks and
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 1: won really bad out against Anaheim that was inexplicable, and
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: other than that, he's been pretty good this month. And
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 1: actually every start has been on the road, so he's
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 1: only had one home. The last home start was in
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: late July, so he hasn't been pitching at home recently,
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: so maybe we'll get pumped up for a home start.
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: His numbers against Arizona are pretty good in fifty seven
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: at bats sixteen to five strike a walk ratio one
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: seventy five batting average allowed to five forty ops allowed.
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: So I know Arizona is a good offense, but the
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: Dodgers' offense is one of the few that's better than Arizona's.
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: So we're gonna go with the Dodgers. I think they
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 1: have the matchup advantage across the board here, man, I
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: think it's a complete mismatch, so we'll go with the
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: Dodgers run line here. The money is also coming in
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 1: on the over slightly sixty four percent tickets seventy three
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: percent of catch in the over total vet for eight
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 1: and a half to nine. I don't know if I
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: want to go with an over with Yama Modo potentially
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: doing pretty well here, I think if you want to
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 1: do anything with an over, I think it would be
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers over their team total. I know I said
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 1: that already in the series and it didn't work out,
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: but that's the way that I would go there. And
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: then we'll hit college football again real quickly because there
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 1: are only two games here, so it's a lot easier
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 1: for me to do looking at the money here everything
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 1: that I said already, If you go watch my college
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 1: football Week one video, I know we sucked this week,
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: but hopefully my information is still good. The money is
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 1: the market read is still the same on both these games. Yes,
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 1: South Carolina against Virginia Tech. This is afternoon in football. Actually,
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 1: South Carolina down from nine and a half to seven
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 1: seventy percent tickets only seven twy percent of the cash.
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 1: I told you, II lean to taking the points with
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech if you do like that side, I mean,
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 1: you could still do it at seven or maybe even
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: seven and a half still out there, so you're still
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: getting the better of the key number seven for the
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 1: most part. So I think that's still okay if you
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: do like the points with Virginia Tech. I think the
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: SEC is just getting a little bit over hyped here
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 1: with South Carolina, Man, I think that's really the deal here,
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 1: South Carolina. Yes, they have a good defense. They are
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: returning their quarterback Sellers, who is He's a solid quarterback,
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: He's good. Virginia Tech's returning their QB as well, Drones.
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: I believe both teams are not returning much of their
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 1: offensive line though, so that we could see some offensive
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 1: line issues in this game. The total went up for
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 1: forty five and a half to fifty two and a half,
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: sixty five percent tickets in the over, seventy two percent
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 1: of the cash in the over, seventy three percent of
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 1: casch in the over now, so the money's coming in
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 1: on the over. I'm not sure I agree with the over,
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 1: although I think the over is actually probably correlated to
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech because there are more offensive team than a
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 1: defensive team, so it's kind of interesting. Although I could
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: see both offensive lines struggling here, so I don't know
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: if I really necessarily love the over. I still think
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: the preferred way to play this game is grabbing the
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 1: points of Virginia Tech. I still just think this is
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: a game where the SEC is just a little bit
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 1: over hyped right now, and we did see that yesterday.
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, it was just crazy that Alabama lost that
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 1: game though, outright, and that's just insane. I don't know
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 1: what's really even going on with that. And then Texas
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 1: of course lost for US, but I still think that's
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 1: a little bit misleading. I still think the SEC is
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 1: still the better conference, like over the ACC and probably
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: over the Big Ten too, even though the Big Ten
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 1: is really good. But in this game though, this particular matchup, though,
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, I kind of think Virginia Tech is just
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: a little bit under the radar. So I think it's
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 1: just there's a little bit of value in that number there.
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 1: In my opinion, South Carolina more defensive team, and if
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: that's the way they play, they don't cover numbers like
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 1: that as often, even though they are the better team.
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 1: And that's about it. And remember this game is a
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 1: neutral site game. It's in Atlanta at the Atlanta Falcons,
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: and it's on a Sunday, so Chick fil A is
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: gonna be closed in that stadium, but rightfully so, because
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 1: they ruin their waffle fries, So fuck you, Chick fil A.
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know why they did that. Their waffle fries
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 1: were really good, and then they were like, oh, we're
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 1: gonna change the recipe for no reason to be woke
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: or some bullshit and go with I know Chick fil
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 1: A is actually woke. Everybody thinks they're I don't know,
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 1: like Christian, I don't know, evil Christians something whatever, But no,
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: they're pretty woke. They're still progressives there. They're a huge corporation,
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 1: but they like started putting like pee protein in their
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 1: fry oil. I mean, those things are just horrendous now.
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: They taste a card. But I can't believe they ruin
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 1: their waffle fries like that because I personally liked Chick
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 1: fil A. I like their spicy chicken sandwich, but and
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 1: I like the breakfast sandwiches too. But uh, no, go anymore, man,
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 1: Chick fil A, fuck you fix your waffle fries or
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 1: get fucked. But anyway, they're not gonna be open in
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 1: that stadium. Today's so very, very weird to have a
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 1: location in a football stadium and not be open on Sundays.
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 1: Break the rules, man, or don't because you suck anyway.
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech is my leaning there in that one, and
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: then Notre Dame at Miami. This is actually at Miami's
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: stadium I'm pretty sure. Again I give out Miami plus three,
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 1: and you might still be able to find the plus
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 1: three's here. This is one of my plays. And guess
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: what the line looks like. It dropped off of those threes.
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 1: It looked like it looks like the professional betters were
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 1: waiting for that three and they took the three. So
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 1: hopefully you can still find a three out there and
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 1: find it at some books. Although I still lean in
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 1: Miami at the two and a half. It's just three
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 1: is obviously a key number, so that's what you want
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 1: to get. I thought the three was gonna stay. If
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 1: you like Miami, I would just wait because they don't
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 1: play until tonight. So if you don't, if you don't
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 1: see a three out there right now, I would wait
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 1: because there's no difference really between two and two and
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 1: a half, So I would wait to find a three
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 1: again if you don't see it, or only just keep
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 1: looking throughout the day and you might get a three again.
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 1: As the public gets involved, because this is a late game,
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 1: and you know, this is the bailout game, so when
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 1: the public loses money, they try to bail themselves out,
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: and this is gonna be the most heavily played matchup. Obviously,
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 1: it's a huge matchup between two top ten ranked teams.
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure. So this is gonna be the game
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 1: that is the bailout game for all these guys. Man,
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 1: even if guys play this earlier game, the professional betters,
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 1: I mean the excuse me, the recreational betters, if they
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 1: played this earlier game, and especially if they lose this game,
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 1: they're gonna come in and try to make up their
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 1: money on this game. So you might see an influx
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 1: of recreational money coming in a Notre Dame late tonight,
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 1: right right before the game starts. So again basically the
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 1: wait until you find a three or wait until kickoff
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 1: to play this game. If you like Miami sixty tickets,
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 1: only fifty three percent of the cash on Notre Dames.
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 1: The public is on Notre Dame, and of course Notre Dame.
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'll just re I'll give you the handicap
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 1: again here, maybe the abbreviated version. Notre Dame is coming
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: off losing the championship, and I think they overperformed a
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 1: little bit to get to the championship, because yes they
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 1: have a good defense, Yes, yes they have a good coach. Yes,
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 1: they're returning a lot of their defense. Yes, they're returning
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 1: their running back. All of that is good for continuity.
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 1: I know Notre Dame is a good team, but I
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 1: still think, man, the fact that they're an independent. Last year,
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 1: they played a fairly weak schedule, man, so I think
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 1: at some point, playing all these good teams, it'll catch
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 1: up to them. And I think they kind of got
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 1: a little bit lucky beating Georgia. Georgia lost Carson back,
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 1: which hint, hint, that's another part of this handicap here.
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 1: So they got to face Georgia without Carson Beck, so
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 1: they had to face an inexperienced gunner stocked and and
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 1: Georgia just kind of fell apart in the second half
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 1: of that game. Then I still think Notre Dame got
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 1: pretty lucky in that game against Penn State, with aler
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 1: for Penn State their quarterback throwing that absolutely crucial interception
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 1: that ruined the game. So I think Notre Dame did
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 1: get a little bit lucky in those games. Man. So yeah,
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 1: they're good, but they're not as good as that. And
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 1: they made it to the championship, which means they exerted themselves.
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 1: They played way deeper into the season because of course
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: Miami didn't even make the playoff, and Miami was playing
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 1: in dream crusher mode I think for a little while
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 1: at the end of the season too. Yes, Miami did
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 1: play in the Pop Tart Bowl, so they did play
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 1: in the postseason, but a lot of their guys didn't
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 1: play in the second half, and of course cam Ward
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 1: was their quarterback. He took himself out of the game
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 1: the second half as well. Whatever, and Miami lost that game,
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 1: so they obviously didn't care that much about that game.
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 1: But anyway, Notre Dame had to really play those punishing
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 1: games against good defenses all the way up through the championship,
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 1: and they didn't let up in the championship. E there
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 1: so a lot of times when a team does that,
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: they're hungover coming into next season. Man, I think that
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 1: might be the case here with Notre Dame. So that's
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 1: part of the handicap they have to go to Miami.
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 1: This is Catlics versus convicts, by the way, the huge
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 1: historical matchup here. I know we're on the side of
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 1: the convicts here, which normally I would not want to
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 1: do that. I don't side with convicts over catlics normally,
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 1: although sometimes they're both. But in this case, I'm going
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 1: to and I hope we get hope that Notre Dame
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 1: gets convicted in this game, man, But yeah, it's gonna
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 1: be a difficult environment for Notre Dame to go in.
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame is starting, I believe, a true freshman quarterback,
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 1: so that's part of this handicap. Man. They have a
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 1: really an experienced quarterback. And I know it didn't work
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: out fading Ohio State with a saying I think it
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 1: was their quarterback's name. I forget who Notre Dames quarterback
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 1: is now, but the Ohio State at least that was
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 1: a home game on the road. Like this, you do
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 1: have the potential to get thrown off by the crowd
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 1: and make mistakes. Man, the crowd is going to be
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 1: crazy in this game, so I think that could affect
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame as well, even though I know they're not
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 1: a pass first offense though, but we'll see what happens.
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 1: Whereas Miami, even though they have a new quarterback in there,
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 1: he's an experienced quarterback, so yes, he has to get
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 1: used to a new system. Yes, the guys there have
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 1: to get used to playing with him and whatever they
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 1: need to build up some chemistry. Sure, but it's Carson Beck, man.
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, he has a lot of experience. He has
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 1: experience playing SEC defenses, so he has experience playing against
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 1: defenses that are as good or better than Notre Dames defense.
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 1: So I think that's a good thing for Carson Beck.
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 1: He's got the experience. Everybody seems to just shit on
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 1: him way too much, man, the way things ended for him.
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 1: Oh Beck sucks now because Georgia sucks. I don't think
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 1: that's the case, man. And he got hurt. So that's
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 1: the other big thing that I like about this is
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 1: that I think Beck is gonna be extra motivated here
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 1: because he didn't play in that game for Georgia, because
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 1: he was hurt Georgia against Notre Dame and Georgia lost
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 1: that game in the playoff. I think Beck wants to
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 1: come out and prove that, hey, I could have beaten
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame. Man, if I was there for Georgia, we
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 1: would have beaten Notre Dame. So I think he has
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 1: an extra chip on his shoulder to prove that. I
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 1: haven't heard a single handicaper actually mentioned that aspect of
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 1: this and that's a big aspect from my handicapping here.
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 1: It's insane that I haven't heard anybody else mention that.
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 1: But I think it's just a crazy kind of unique
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 1: situation here. So we're going with Miami in that game,
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 1: and that's gonna do it. Man, another long video there.
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 1: I know. I apologize, but it's baseball autism. Learned it
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 1: oad on Twitter, I'll learn it toad on Instagram, and yeah,
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 1: go check it all out. Better off dead, subscribe like
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 1: do everything. Boost me on YouTube, baby, boost me on
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 1: the audio platforms as well. Give me some reviews. We
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 1: got covered in yuke on YouTube, my uke channels to
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 1: check that out as well. I have to keep it
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 1: up to date though. I mean, I'm sorry, man, I've
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 1: been busy. I've been going to concerts. We'll see, I'll
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 1: get it. I'll get it going again. And then patron
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 1: dot com slash learn to toe you can get some
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 1: bonus content there or just throw me some support because
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 1: you like me and you like my stuff. It's gonna
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 1: get better, man, it has to get better. We're not
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 1: gonna kill ourselves here. It has to get better. Uh
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 1: you know again, the plays today Milwaukee, Uh in Toronto
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 1: under the total in the in baseball, Dodgers run line
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 1: in baseball, and then at Miami in college football, Let's
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 1: finally get a fucking college football win, man. Because I'm
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 1: in some money pools on Splash Sports as well, and
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 1: my pick them has gone really poorly so far. I'm
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 1: still alive and survivor, where you have to pick two
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 1: teams college football Survivor. I've never done it before, and
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 1: it's wild. I had Michigan State and Washington because I
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 1: was like, who are like the big conference teams that
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 1: you know they're gonna be like put up against a
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 1: gauntlet throughout the rest of the season, but they have
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 1: easy matchups in Week one and they don't really have
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 1: any matchups that are that easy for the rest of
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 1: the season. But so, who are those teams? I'm like, Okay,
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 1: it was Michigan State and Washington, So I think I
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 1: did okay with those picks. I mean, they obviously both
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 1: won by double digits, so whatever. But yeah, I mean, anyway,
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 1: we'll see, but that's gonna do it. Everybody have a
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 1: good Sunday and peace.