Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 9/10/26: Trump Offers $5k Midterm Bribe, Oil Prices Spike Amid Houthi Attacks

Transcript

9/10/26: Trump Offers $5k Midterm Bribe, Oil Prices Spike Amid Houthi Attacks · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

0:00
Speaker 1: Hey guys, Ready or Not 2024 is here and we
0:04
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0:19
Speaker 2: But enough with that, let's get to the show.
0:24
Speaker 1: Trump is hosting his big midterm convention down in Texas,
0:29
Speaker 1: where in perfect Trumpian style, he is the keynote speaker
0:32
Speaker 1: both nights. So it kicked off last night and he
0:36
Speaker 1: unveiled a new promise to the American people.
0:38
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.
0:40
Speaker 4: If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the
0:43
Speaker 4: United States Senate, both of them, because of our economic,
0:49
Speaker 4: tremendous economic success, like In history, we've never had anything
0:54
Speaker 4: like what's happening. But because of our tremendous strength and
0:58
Speaker 4: success economically, I will issue a dividend to every adult
1:04
Speaker 4: citizen in the United States of America for $ 5, 000.
1:10
Speaker 1: I mean, you could just do it now since you
1:12
Speaker 1: have Republican majorities if you actually wanted to do such
1:15
Speaker 1: a thing. But, you know, I'm still waiting on my
1:17
Speaker 1: Doge check. I'm still waiting on my tariff rebate check.
1:21
Speaker 1: So this is the third major I will just give
1:24
Speaker 1: you money promise that Trump has made.
1:25
Speaker 2: It's all rolled into one. You get your dividend together.
1:30
Speaker 2: All right. $ 5, 000 dividend. I'm sure that all the Republicans
1:34
Speaker 2: in Congress definitely support this idea, right?
1:36
Speaker 4: Oh, yeah.
1:36
Speaker 1: I'm sure they're lining up. What about for the new
1:40
Speaker 1: $ 1. 2 trillion stimulus this would be?
1:43
Speaker 2: Billy, $ 1. 3 trillion, actually, in terms of how you're going
1:46
Speaker 2: to pay for it. I believe the justification is that
1:49
Speaker 2: because we've taken.
1:50
Speaker 3: In— How many Iran wars does it cost?
1:52
Speaker 2: We've taken $ 300 billion in tariff revenue in, and so
1:56
Speaker 2: that means that we could give out $ 1. 3 trillion in tariffs.
1:59
Speaker 2: In dividend checks. I mean, listen, Ryan joked Democrats should
2:03
Speaker 2: just be like, fuck it, we'll give you $ 10, 000. Absolutely.
2:07
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, I don't hate it. It's like,
2:10
Speaker 2: you know, people have been suffering. You could call it
2:12
Speaker 2: the gas check or something like that.
2:14
Speaker 1: I mean, I just, the broader political, I mean, number one,
2:17
Speaker 1: it's not happening. So let's just be clear about that.
2:19
Speaker 1: Number two, I don't think people will believe that it's
2:21
Speaker 1: going to happen because it's like, okay, again, there have
2:24
Speaker 1: been a lot of promises made that have not been
2:26
Speaker 1: kept in terms of, oh.
2:27
Speaker 3: We're totally going to give you a check. And number two,
2:30
Speaker 3: you do have control right now.
2:33
Speaker 1: So how about you go ahead, if this is something
2:35
Speaker 1: you're serious about, you could go ahead and do it.
2:38
Speaker 1: And then maybe we vote for you because you actually
2:40
Speaker 1: showed some care and concern for the American people versus
2:43
Speaker 1: the things you've been saying routinely, which is that you
2:46
Speaker 1: don't give a shit about the material conditions of the
2:48
Speaker 1: American people.
2:48
Speaker 2: Catherine Rempel over at Washington Post has, or sorry, Bulwark
2:52
Speaker 2: has this. $ 5, 000 stimulus checks were promised via Doge. $ 2, 000
2:56
Speaker 2: stimulus checks were promised via Tariff Dividend. $ 1, 000 checks via
3:00
Speaker 2: a savings from the expiring ACA subsidy. Oh, I forgot
3:03
Speaker 2: about that one. And $ 5, 000 dividend now if Republicans win
3:06
Speaker 2: the midterms. Coincidentally, I believe that this $ 5, 000 would be
3:11
Speaker 2: just enough to make up for the overall price increase
3:13
Speaker 2: that I will pay over the course of a year.
3:15
Speaker 2: from the ACA subsidy expiring. So it's just my personal case.
3:19
Speaker 3: And then how far does it cover the additional gas prices?
3:22
Speaker 3: Of course, you have electric cars.
3:23
Speaker 2: I have electric cars. It's a little different. Although I
3:25
Speaker 2: paid more for it than most people pay for a
3:26
Speaker 2: gas vehicle. So yeah, I'm doing all right. But overall,
3:29
Speaker 2: I don't think that this... Look, it comes down to trust.
3:32
Speaker 2: And remember, I think back to Trump literally won the
3:35
Speaker 2: 2020 election. If he had been able to pass those
3:40
Speaker 2: final stimulus checks, you remember this entire thing with the
3:42
Speaker 2: Georgia runoff elections and everything. If Trump had actually promised
3:47
Speaker 2: to just pass a final stimulus check, I genuinely think
3:50
Speaker 2: he would have won the election. And not only that,
3:53
Speaker 2: Mitch McConnell could have easily made sure that neither of
3:56
Speaker 2: those Democrats were able to win in those Senate seats.
4:00
Speaker 2: if he had allowed that. Now, did Trump use any
4:03
Speaker 2: of his political authority to push that through? No. Ultimately,
4:06
Speaker 2: you know, the Doge actually didn't save us any money
4:09
Speaker 2: at all. Don't believe me. Believe the official United States
4:12
Speaker 2: government statistics if you want to go and check that.
4:15
Speaker 2: That's the problem, is that there's a huge trust deficit,
4:18
Speaker 2: and this comes off as desperate whenever it comes to Trump,
4:21
Speaker 2: and especially because every single one of us knows that
4:24
Speaker 2: that Trump is not actually going to put all of
4:26
Speaker 2: his political capital behind this. Now, let's be fair. If
4:30
Speaker 2: he wanted to, he actually could. Remember when Trump promised
4:34
Speaker 2: that he was going to cut all Social Security tax?
4:36
Speaker 2: He actually did that. Yeah, it worked out for boomers.
4:39
Speaker 2: And everybody was like, oh, yeah. And they put that
4:41
Speaker 2: into the big, beautiful bill. They also did it for
4:45
Speaker 2: no tax on tips, which, you know, I guess, give
4:48
Speaker 2: a credit, although it's being horrifically abused right now. in
4:51
Speaker 2: terms of the tax code. So you can see how
4:53
Speaker 2: when he wants to do something and actually ram it
4:56
Speaker 2: down people's throats, it can happen. You'd be better off
5:00
Speaker 2: doing it right now. I mean, the United States Senate,
5:02
Speaker 2: they're not even back in session until next Tuesday, I'm
5:06
Speaker 2: pretty sure. Call them back. You have the authority as president.
5:09
Speaker 2: Be like, I'm calling back both houses of Congress. I
5:11
Speaker 2: spoke to Speaker Johnson. I spoke to Leader Thune, we're
5:14
Speaker 2: immediately going to advance this legislation, and every American will
5:17
Speaker 2: get it on Wednesday, Election Day, November 5th, on November 4th.
5:21
Speaker 2: With his name on it. Who gives a shit? Sure, yeah.
5:25
Speaker 1: I mean, remember in 2020, part of how it was
5:28
Speaker 1: so close was— when all the polls had it being
5:30
Speaker 1: a total blowout, was because he'd sent out stimulus checks
5:34
Speaker 1: during COVID with his name on it. And we covered
5:36
Speaker 1: those Latinos in the Rio Grande Valley who were like,
5:39
Speaker 1: I don't know, it seemed pretty good to me. I
5:41
Speaker 1: got this check with his name on it, so I'm
5:42
Speaker 1: voting for him again. So, you know, it can be
5:45
Speaker 1: very powerful. I think he learned that lesson. But when
5:48
Speaker 1: your approval rating is in the toilet and you've already
5:52
Speaker 1: done the, like, I'm going to give you checks things
5:54
Speaker 1: repeatedly and then it hasn't come through, I don't know
5:57
Speaker 1: how powerful this is going to be. Another thing that
5:59
Speaker 1: was very significant here is that he said specifically that
6:03
Speaker 1: you should act as if I am on the ballot,
6:07
Speaker 1: which we'll talk about it on the other side. But
6:09
Speaker 1: it's kind of an interesting thing to say at a
6:11
Speaker 1: time when you're hovering in like the low 30s with
6:14
Speaker 1: your approval rating with the American public.
6:16
Speaker 3: This is D1. Let's take a listen.
6:18
Speaker 4: The choice in this election is very, very simple. Democrats
6:23
Speaker 4: are asking you to vote for their failed far-left agenda.
6:26
Speaker 2: It's never worked.
6:27
Speaker 4: That destroyed your finances and delivered you four years of disaster, bedlam,
6:33
Speaker 4: and death under sleepy Joe Biden. And I'm asking you
6:40
Speaker 4: to let us finish the job we began with the
6:42
Speaker 4: greatest two years in the history of the presidency. This
6:46
Speaker 4: has been the most successful two years, financially and every
6:50
Speaker 4: other way, in the history of the presidency.
6:55
Speaker 2: So I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot.
6:59
Speaker 2: I'm on the ballot.
7:01
Speaker 5: I'm on the ballot.
7:04
Speaker 2: Just one more time.
7:06
Speaker 4: Because if we lose, you're going to lose your border.
7:10
Speaker 4: You're going to lose your tax cuts. You're going to
7:13
Speaker 4: lose your safety and security. You're going to lose your wealth.
7:17
Speaker 4: Our country is going through hell. You will be going
7:20
Speaker 4: through hell just like you did just two years ago.
7:23
Speaker 3: Go through hell like you did two years ago.
7:26
Speaker 1: How's it going right now? If you ask most Americans,
7:29
Speaker 1: they'll say that they are financially worse off and worse
7:31
Speaker 1: off in general.
7:32
Speaker 3: Under the Trump presidency.
7:34
Speaker 1: So it's pretty wild to say it's been the most
7:35
Speaker 1: successful two years in the history of the presidency. And
7:38
Speaker 1: he's not wrong that it is sort of like he's
7:41
Speaker 1: on the ballot. I mean, it will be a referendum
7:44
Speaker 1: on him. I'm not sure that it's smart for him
7:46
Speaker 1: politically to completely own that. Just as you remember when
7:50
Speaker 1: Obama said with Hillary, act as if I'm on the
7:52
Speaker 1: ballot and then she loses. Well, you know, that is
7:55
Speaker 1: a bit of a referendum on you and how people
7:57
Speaker 1: felt about the legacy of your presidency.
7:59
Speaker 3: I played that clip.
8:00
Speaker 2: In my very first rising monologue ever.
8:02
Speaker 3: I remember. I remember that.
8:04
Speaker 2: My name is on the ballot. Justice is on the ballot.
8:07
Speaker 2: That's why you got to go out and vote for Hillary. Yeah. Well, yeah,
8:10
Speaker 2: it doesn't really work out for Mr. Trump. I do
8:14
Speaker 2: think I really is fascinating to me. that he survives,
8:19
Speaker 2: what is it, the 90 criminal charges. He survives everything
8:24
Speaker 2: the media ever threw at him. He survives literally a
8:28
Speaker 2: decade in public life, Stormy Daniels, Access Hollywood, Charlottesville, I mean, January.
8:36
Speaker 2: I could go on forever. And every single one, he
8:41
Speaker 2: comes out stronger. He wins the popular vote, probably one
8:43
Speaker 2: of the most stunning victories in modern American history in
8:47
Speaker 2: terms of expectation. versus reality first republican to do so
8:50
Speaker 2: since two thousand four unambiguously has literally the culture on
8:54
Speaker 2: his side. How did it all just go like this?
8:58
Speaker 2: It really is Iran. If you take a look, I'm
9:00
Speaker 2: not saying that he wasn't unpopular or divisive, but in
9:04
Speaker 2: my opinion, prior to Iran, this would have been one
9:07
Speaker 2: of those classic elections where you're going to get blown
9:10
Speaker 2: out in the House, 2018 style, but those closer Senate races,
9:14
Speaker 2: they're in contention. I think Ken Paxton wins easily if
9:19
Speaker 2: there is, not easily, but two to three points It's
9:22
Speaker 2: a Beto-style versus Ted Cruz. Tallarico raises a lot of money.
9:26
Speaker 2: But the scenario that we're in right now is one where,
9:30
Speaker 2: with Iran, he actually just can't wriggle his way out. Like, period.
9:33
Speaker 2: It is one where it is genuine checkmate. It's a disaster.
9:37
Speaker 2: As you and I are recording right now, our friend Rory,
9:40
Speaker 2: I mean, Brent crude oil is at $ 105 a barrel
9:45
Speaker 2: right now, today. That means diesel is over $ 6 a gallon.
9:50
Speaker 2: which is the highest price on record. Gasoline price, let
9:54
Speaker 2: me just check, retail gas, actual price, it's 427 national.
10:00
Speaker 2: not even a lot of bombs that are flying around.
10:02
Speaker 2: There's not even active war. Average price in California, $ 5. 89.
10:06
Speaker 2: There'll be a $ 6 probably in the next week. This
10:09
Speaker 2: is crushing and it's been six months of this and
10:13
Speaker 2: everybody knows they've got nothing they have zero solution to
10:17
Speaker 2: this entire thing yeah that's i think you know there's
10:20
Speaker 2: something really profound about that you know obvious historical lesson
10:24
Speaker 2: i've just all these people been a big french revolution
10:26
Speaker 2: kick reading a lot about napoleon it's just kind of
10:28
Speaker 2: amazing you know it's just like roll the dice you
10:30
Speaker 2: win you roll the dice you win you roll the
10:32
Speaker 2: thing you're like god this man can't be stopped And
10:34
Speaker 2: then you roll into Moscow and you're like, oh, actually,
10:36
Speaker 2: you can't stop it. Yeah, it turns out you can.
10:39
Speaker 2: It's the same thing here. It really is. It's like
10:42
Speaker 2: the most ever present lesson in all of history.
10:44
Speaker 1: It makes sense in a way, sort of poetically, that
10:47
Speaker 1: Trump would be the author of his own destruction, that
10:49
Speaker 1: no one else could really do it.
10:51
Speaker 3: He had to author his own destruction.
10:52
Speaker 2: Just like Hitler, just like Napoleon.
10:54
Speaker 1: That's exactly what has happened here. And I would say
10:57
Speaker 1: it is the Iran war is the biggest factor. I
11:00
Speaker 1: don't think we should underestimate, though, how much people hated
11:02
Speaker 1: the terrorists. Remember when we were, people hated the tariffs.
11:05
Speaker 1: And especially when you look at how many of these
11:07
Speaker 1: Senate races are in the Midwest. where they're getting hurt
11:11
Speaker 1: both by the tariffs and by the Iran war. And
11:14
Speaker 1: suddenly Kansas is in place. Suddenly Nebraska is in place.
11:17
Speaker 1: Suddenly Iowa is like lean D. At this point, obviously,
11:22
Speaker 1: Michigan is going to be a key.
11:23
Speaker 2: State as well.
11:23
Speaker 3: Ohio is a key state as well.
11:25
Speaker 1: When you look at those states and how important not
11:29
Speaker 1: only the Iran war, but the tariffs have been to
11:32
Speaker 1: their entire economic base.
11:34
Speaker 3: I think you put the two of those together.
11:35
Speaker 1: And that is also really when people started to have
11:38
Speaker 1: a negative view of Trump and his handling of the economy.
11:41
Speaker 3: Because previously that had been his biggest strength is people, oh,
11:44
Speaker 3: he's a businessman. He knows what to do. It's going
11:46
Speaker 3: to be great.
11:47
Speaker 1: It was when he did Liberation Day and the whole
11:50
Speaker 1: thing was insane and didn't make any sense and it
11:52
Speaker 1: didn't work and it just increased costs and created all
11:55
Speaker 1: of this chaos that people really had that foundational view
12:00
Speaker 1: of Trump shaken. And then it's been just a steady
12:02
Speaker 1: slide since then with obviously the Iran war and the
12:05
Speaker 1: attendant price increases there being a complete and utter disaster.
12:09
Speaker 1: There were a couple of other interesting moments at this
12:13
Speaker 1: GOP convention. First of all, let's put D0 up on
12:16
Speaker 1: the screen just to give you a sense of the vibes.
12:19
Speaker 1: There were a lot of empty seats. I think this
12:21
Speaker 1: was towards the beginning, but you've got– there were videos from–
12:26
Speaker 1: right in the midst of things. Most of those bottom
12:28
Speaker 1: seats were filled in, but you had a lot of
12:30
Speaker 1: empty space there. There's a lot of reporting on the
12:33
Speaker 1: scene that the vibes are pretty bad. You in advance
12:35
Speaker 1: had a lot of reporting about the number of Republican
12:38
Speaker 1: politicians that were.
12:38
Speaker 2: Like, I'm good.
12:40
Speaker 3: I'm busy campaigning at home.
12:41
Speaker 2: Good luck.
12:42
Speaker 1: So that's why you had last night at the convention,
12:45
Speaker 1: it was like Scott Besant speaking and, you know, whatever
12:48
Speaker 1: Trump administration, I think Don Jr. has a speaking slot
12:52
Speaker 1: as well. Trump is headlining both nights.
12:54
Speaker 2: Trump this morning claims, quote, the overall numbers beat the NFL.
12:59
Speaker 2: There is no universe where the RNC. So let's split screen.
13:06
Speaker 2: Sam Darnold entry, Drake May choking like an idiot. split
13:10
Speaker 2: screen with Donald Trump and his 11 p.m. primetime speech.
13:14
Speaker 2: I'm just waiting for the numbers to come out. I
13:16
Speaker 2: think the over the over under, if you will, is
13:19
Speaker 2: around 40 million viewers who probably watched the game. And
13:24
Speaker 2: I would be willing to bet if you stopped a
13:26
Speaker 2: guy on the street and said, did Donald Trump speak
13:28
Speaker 2: last night? What are you talking about? You know what?
13:34
Speaker 3: We also, let's put, is this a VO, the D3B? No,
13:38
Speaker 3: it's Assad.
13:38
Speaker 1: So this bizarre, in the whole Hassan Piker discourse, the
13:43
Speaker 1: Republicans decided to include in their montage of like Democrats
13:46
Speaker 1: are bad and evil, some images of Hassan Piker, including
13:50
Speaker 1: one that's this like thirst trap of him in his
13:53
Speaker 1: underwear that he posted on Instagram at some point.
13:55
Speaker 3: Let's take a look at that.
13:57
Speaker 4: It has moved away from Democrats in its own party.
14:02
Speaker 3: I am not going to be in the same party
14:03
Speaker 3: with a son.
14:04
Speaker 2: I can tell you that right now.
14:06
Speaker 3: The funniest part of that is how they, like, blur
14:09
Speaker 3: the underwear.
14:09
Speaker 2: Yes, right. I don't know.
14:12
Speaker 3: I would love to have a word.
14:14
Speaker 1: With the person who put that montage together and know
14:16
Speaker 1: the psychology that went in.
14:17
Speaker 3: I have some suspicions, though, and I think most people do.
14:19
Speaker 2: I have some ideas around how that one got in there.
14:22
Speaker 2: It has to do with, I think, didn't Grindr crash
14:24
Speaker 2: whenever it was in Dallas?
14:25
Speaker 3: Grindr crashed again, yeah, as usual, during major Republican events.
14:28
Speaker 4: Yeah.
14:29
Speaker 2: All right.
14:30
Speaker 3: We'll effort Benny Johnson to give us the lowdown on
14:32
Speaker 3: the psychology there.
14:33
Speaker 2: So let's get to, what is it?
14:37
Speaker 3: Well, we've got Fetterman.
14:38
Speaker 1: John Fetterman decided that he would also make a virtual
14:43
Speaker 1: appearance because we all know he's too lazy to actually
14:45
Speaker 1: travel to Texas. So he sent in a video on
14:48
Speaker 1: behalf of his bestie, the Republican Senator Dave McCormick from Pennsylvania.
14:53
Speaker 3: This is D3. Let's take a listen to that.
14:55
Speaker 5: A big room of Republicans in Dallas. Yes, I'm Senator
15:00
Speaker 5: John Fetterman, Pennsylvania. Yes, I'm a Democrat. Why am I
15:04
Speaker 5: here talking to you today? because, well, I'm a common-sense Democrat.
15:09
Speaker 5: I'm always going to stand with America. I'm always going
15:12
Speaker 5: to reject the extremes and socialism and that anti-American way
15:17
Speaker 5: of life. Dave McCormick is the kind of senator that
15:21
Speaker 5: gets the job done, and he's going to fight for Pennsylvania.
15:26
Speaker 5: I'm proud to count him as my friend. Right back
15:29
Speaker 5: over my shoulder, that's the iconic U.S. Steel Mill. And
15:34
Speaker 5: that's exactly the kind of thing that we'll work together
15:37
Speaker 5: and we'll work with President Trump to fight and defend
15:40
Speaker 5: the steel way of life right here in the Steel Valley.
15:44
Speaker 5: I have this opportunity to introduce this great American, a
15:48
Speaker 5: great senator. And yes, he is in a different party,
15:51
Speaker 5: but I'm proud to count him as my great friend.
15:54
Speaker 5: So for everybody in Dallas, I'm here to introduce Dave McCormick.
15:59
Speaker 1: So there you go, John Fetterman, really inspiring stuff there
16:02
Speaker 1: for the Republican convention.
16:04
Speaker 2: He put a statement out this morning. He said, in
16:06
Speaker 2: no way am I switching parties. In no way, you know,
16:09
Speaker 2: I'm proud to be the 51st. I would be proud
16:12
Speaker 2: to say to be the 51st senator. We are in
16:15
Speaker 2: different parties. We are both on Team PA. We have
16:17
Speaker 2: delivered hundreds of millions of dollars back to Pennsylvania with
16:20
Speaker 2: a steel way of life. I'm a lifelong Democrat who
16:22
Speaker 2: votes overwhelmingly with my party. And should the Senate flip
16:25
Speaker 2: in November— I will still be the 51st vote that
16:28
Speaker 2: I ran on. So he claims I will not be
16:30
Speaker 2: switching parties whatsoever. I actually, I really don't think he
16:34
Speaker 2: would switch parties. I think there is nothing he would
16:37
Speaker 2: love more than being the Joe Manchin, you know, up
16:40
Speaker 2: or down. Every media organization in the world has to
16:44
Speaker 2: hang on to his every word. Schumer has to, you know,
16:47
Speaker 2: take him out to lobster dinners. Every lobbyist in town
16:50
Speaker 2: has to shower him with cash. I mean, this is
16:52
Speaker 2: his dream.
16:53
Speaker 1: But I think for Democrats, I mean, he will also
16:56
Speaker 1: delight in any time there is a close vote where
16:59
Speaker 1: he's the swing vote.
17:00
Speaker 3: Oh, he'll vote no.
17:01
Speaker 1: He will vote with the Republicans every time that it
17:03
Speaker 1: actually matters. So it does change the calculus in terms
17:06
Speaker 1: of how many seats Democrats actually have to win to
17:08
Speaker 1: have a functioning majority because you definitely can't rely on
17:12
Speaker 1: this guy that much.
17:13
Speaker 3: Is for sure.
17:15
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and put D5 up on the screen,
17:17
Speaker 1: the significant polling in terms of where we are politically on.
17:21
Speaker 3: This was pretty noteworthy.
17:23
Speaker 1: You know, one of the things that really was a
17:25
Speaker 1: tell that Trump was likely to win reelection in 2024
17:30
Speaker 1: was that Republican identification for the first time. was outpacing
17:36
Speaker 1: Democratic identification. You had more people who were saying they're
17:39
Speaker 1: Republicans than Democrats. That historically has not been the case.
17:43
Speaker 1: Now things have reversed. And not only have they reversed,
17:46
Speaker 1: but they have reversed to the point that now you
17:49
Speaker 1: have Democrats with a sizable lead over Republicans, a six-point
17:54
Speaker 1: lead over Republicans in terms of party identification. So things
17:58
Speaker 1: have really, really switched around there. And then we also just, again,
18:02
Speaker 1: in the sign of the times, let's put this D6
18:04
Speaker 1: up on the screen. It's the latest poll out of Texas,
18:07
Speaker 1: which is where, of course, this convention is being held.
18:10
Speaker 1: This has Tallarico up on Paxton by five points, 48-43,
18:15
Speaker 1: very close to a majority there, very close to hitting
18:18
Speaker 1: that 50% benchmark for Tallarico as well. This is not
18:23
Speaker 1: obviously the only poll that shows this. There's basically every
18:27
Speaker 1: poll that comes out has Tallarico narrowly leading Paxton. There
18:31
Speaker 1: have been very few that have Paxton up at all
18:35
Speaker 1: in the state. Greg Abbott also seems to be under
18:37
Speaker 1: significant pressure. And I think to Sagar's point, I mean,
18:40
Speaker 1: this would not be a possibility. Even with Paxton being
18:43
Speaker 1: a scandal plague and all the problems with him, et cetera,
18:47
Speaker 1: this would not be in play. It would not be,
18:49
Speaker 1: you know, with Tallarico, I think at this point you
18:52
Speaker 1: have to say has the edge in the race, if
18:54
Speaker 1: not for the Iran war.
18:56
Speaker 2: Right. So there's 7% undecided. So it's not like Paxton
18:59
Speaker 2: can't win if he wins all those people. But we
19:02
Speaker 2: also just have never seen a modern campaign where you
19:05
Speaker 2: do win 100%. of undecided, which makes it literally a
19:09
Speaker 2: game of within 0.5 or 0.6%. Trump also literally said,
19:14
Speaker 2: I'm gonna campaign with Ken Paxton. Also, Ken Paxton took
19:18
Speaker 2: The stage yesterday didn't exactly light the whole thing on fire.
19:21
Speaker 1: Trump did his whole shtick again of like, he may
19:23
Speaker 1: not like how he looks, how he talks, how he dresses.
19:27
Speaker 2: You may not like anything about him, but he votes
19:29
Speaker 2: the right way. You're like, okay. I mean, not particularly
19:32
Speaker 2: great endorsement. He's got a money disadvantage. Remember, he needs
19:36
Speaker 2: the MAGA super PACs to come in and bail his
19:39
Speaker 2: ass out on campaign. That's a big problem because you
19:42
Speaker 2: don't have major control over how the ads on all
19:45
Speaker 2: of that are being cut and Look, Texas, like I said,
19:48
Speaker 2: it's a little bit different because genuinely there are people
19:51
Speaker 2: in Texas right now, one of the few places in
19:54
Speaker 2: America who are printing generational wealth off of the situation
19:58
Speaker 2: in Iran. Like, if you work in the Port of Houston,
20:00
Speaker 2: you are having a bonanza. If you are in the
20:03
Speaker 2: West Texas oil fields or any of these guys, you
20:05
Speaker 2: are actually at the prime of your career. But tens
20:09
Speaker 2: of millions of people, it's no longer the state like
20:11
Speaker 2: it was when I grew up. It has a much
20:12
Speaker 2: more dynamic economy. It's not all oil and gas. It
20:15
Speaker 2: has technology. It has normal, you know, everyday-type jobs. Those
20:19
Speaker 2: people are all still suffering. Let me see what the
20:21
Speaker 2: gas price is in Texas. It's still $ 3. 83 a gallon,
20:24
Speaker 2: not exactly cheap, especially down there. So you put that
20:27
Speaker 2: together and high inflation, high cost of living, even in
20:30
Speaker 2: a state which predominantly was like, you know, it was
20:33
Speaker 2: like a banner for a place to move to escape
20:36
Speaker 2: kind of the problems of some of the California, New York,
20:39
Speaker 2: or any of those types of places. There's just enough there,
20:43
Speaker 2: along with democratic enthusiasm, for Tallarico to come and to
20:47
Speaker 2: really be able to like seize on this. And I've
20:50
Speaker 2: been watching him. I'll give the guy credit. Tallarico, he
20:53
Speaker 2: went on Fox News yesterday. He has no compunction walking
20:58
Speaker 2: in to what he knew would be an adversarial interview.
21:01
Speaker 2: And he said, yeah, I said some stupid stuff about
21:04
Speaker 2: six genders. And the reason why they want to talk
21:06
Speaker 2: about that is because diesel is $ 6 a gallon. I mean,
21:10
Speaker 2: you know, not my cup of tea. It's a decent line.
21:13
Speaker 2: It's decent enough. I think, you know, exactly for it's
21:16
Speaker 2: decent enough from what I can see to be able
21:19
Speaker 2: to capture exactly the type of person, let's say the
21:22
Speaker 2: white 48 year old mom who traditionally votes Romney has
21:28
Speaker 2: never particularly liked Trump, you know, decides to go ahead
21:30
Speaker 2: and vote for it or sat out the election is
21:33
Speaker 2: just sitting there and is like, I just can't stand Trump.
21:35
Speaker 2: So pissed off about this, pissed off about grocery prices. And,
21:39
Speaker 2: you know, this Tallarico stuff, I don't love it. You know,
21:41
Speaker 2: we talk about it at church. But he says something
21:43
Speaker 2: like that. He goes, she's like, OK, maybe, you know,
21:46
Speaker 2: and you could just see that repeat across the spectrum.
21:48
Speaker 1: I think the big question will be how that Latino vote,
21:51
Speaker 1: Rio Grande Valley Latino vote is swings. According to this poll,
21:56
Speaker 1: they are massively going for Tallarico. But it's a very
21:59
Speaker 1: hard population to poll. Previous shifts there haven't really been
22:02
Speaker 1: captured by pollsters. So I think it's something you should
22:06
Speaker 1: be skeptical about. And it's a population that is more
22:10
Speaker 1: culturally conservative. So some of those statements, your Republicans are
22:13
Speaker 1: hoping that some of those statements are going to sit
22:16
Speaker 1: poorly with that community. And Trump is probably hoping that
22:19
Speaker 1: he'll be able to recreate the stimulus check magic that
22:22
Speaker 1: he had in the past and that that will bring
22:24
Speaker 1: some of them back over to the Republican side. But
22:27
Speaker 1: all of the indications are that there's been a huge
22:29
Speaker 1: swing away from Trump and the Republicans among Latinos specifically
22:33
Speaker 1: in this election. And I really think that will be
22:35
Speaker 1: the determining factor in terms of whether or not Tallarico
22:39
Speaker 1: is going to be able to win, because this is
22:40
Speaker 1: probably the largest sort of swing demographic in the country.
22:44
Speaker 1: You know, they're not diehard Democrats who are just going
22:46
Speaker 1: to be excited to come out and vote. You need
22:48
Speaker 1: more than that in Texas in order to win. He's
22:51
Speaker 1: going to need to win these more independent minded, you know,
22:54
Speaker 1: minded voters. And so I really think that could be
22:56
Speaker 1: the key.
22:56
Speaker 2: I have no I have no compunction of. even trying
23:00
Speaker 2: to predict how these people vote because they go from
23:03
Speaker 2: Hillary plus 48 to Trump plus two to Trump plus
23:07
Speaker 2: 50 back to Democrat. I'm like, I have no idea
23:10
Speaker 2: how to vote. I'm done even trying to analyze it.
23:13
Speaker 2: The basics of what I could see was that it
23:17
Speaker 2: was stimulus checks at the beginning. Then it became kind
23:20
Speaker 2: of a cultural liberalism rejection. Then they became hawks on immigration.
23:26
Speaker 2: Now they're doves on immigration. I can't figure these people out.
23:29
Speaker 2: So I don't know how they're going to vote. They
23:31
Speaker 2: may not vote, period. But yes, they are a very
23:34
Speaker 2: critical constituency. I still think that the biggest thing in
23:37
Speaker 2: Tallarico's favor is the demographic change in the state. I
23:40
Speaker 2: just can't overstate. I mean, the state that I grew
23:42
Speaker 2: up in just does not exist anymore. These hundreds of
23:45
Speaker 2: thousands of people who are all from California or from
23:48
Speaker 2: New York who've all moved in. I mean, I'm not
23:51
Speaker 2: saying that they overwhelm in terms of numbers, but that
23:53
Speaker 2: is exactly, if you want somebody who's going to crawl
23:56
Speaker 2: over a broken glass to vote, who's going to go
23:58
Speaker 2: door knock for you, who's going to come and staff
24:01
Speaker 2: your campaign meetings and hand out donuts and all this stuff,
24:04
Speaker 2: that's who you need really on your side. I think
24:07
Speaker 2: that's really at, the wind is at his back in
24:10
Speaker 2: that front more than anything from what I can see.
24:12
Speaker 2: It's just enough of a core constituent base to be
24:15
Speaker 2: able to try and build some sort of a coalition.
24:17
Speaker 2: I still got my eye on Gina Hinojosa as well.
24:20
Speaker 2: I don't think Abbott is in any way safe in
24:22
Speaker 2: this election. I think if there's a wave, I think
24:24
Speaker 2: he very easily could lose by 0.1 or 0.2, something
24:28
Speaker 2: like that. Not nearly as much as Paxton, but it
24:30
Speaker 2: is definitely in like a one in six type possibility. No,
24:33
Speaker 2: it would be insane. I mean, she'd be the first Democrat.
24:36
Speaker 2: What's this? Ann Richards would be the governor of the state,
24:37
Speaker 2: which is nuts. If you know, I think that was what, 1988?
24:41
Speaker 2: So way before even I was born. Let's turn now
24:47
Speaker 2: to Iran. Very fast-moving developments. We're going to start with this.
24:50
Speaker 2: The Houthis have now seized a very strategic port actually
24:54
Speaker 2: in Yemen. Let's put this up here on the screen.
24:57
Speaker 2: Our friend Glenn Deason highlights this with an excellent map
24:59
Speaker 2: so you can see the overall significance. The Houthis have
25:02
Speaker 2: now captured Mocha on the Red Sea coast. This is
25:06
Speaker 2: a strategic piece of real estate 65 to 75 kilometers
25:09
Speaker 2: north of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which will make the
25:12
Speaker 2: blockade much more efficient. If the term mocha sounds familiar
25:17
Speaker 2: to you, that is literally the origin, that place, mocha,
25:21
Speaker 2: of the mocha. Oh, really? Yes. Yemen has a very,
25:24
Speaker 2: very important.
25:24
Speaker 3: Doesn't just sound delicious.
25:26
Speaker 2: No, it literally is named off of it. Mocha and
25:29
Speaker 2: Yemen actually has a very important part in coffee history.
25:33
Speaker 2: Recommend the book called Caffeine if you are ever interested.
25:37
Speaker 2: But returning to what's happening here, the reason why it
25:40
Speaker 2: is very important is that the Yemeni port... being so
25:43
Speaker 2: close to the Bab al-Mandab Strait, of course, gives them
25:46
Speaker 2: significant more ability to project power in the state, to
25:49
Speaker 2: be able to use some of their shoulder-fired missiles, mines,
25:52
Speaker 2: any of the other things that they want to deploy,
25:54
Speaker 2: not even just cruise missiles. In some cases, they've been
25:57
Speaker 2: able to fire over 1,000 kilometers, actually, into Bab al-Mandab.
26:01
Speaker 2: It also comes on the heels of some stunning new data, actually,
26:06
Speaker 2: out of Saudi Arabia, which I believe that we do have.
26:10
Speaker 2: Let's put, yes, F-5, up here on the screen, which
26:14
Speaker 2: shows how Yemen tilts toward full-scale war as the Saudi
26:18
Speaker 2: and the Houthi clashes escalate. So our friend Rory Johnston
26:22
Speaker 2: actually highlighted this this morning. The data out of Saudi Arabia,
26:27
Speaker 2: which is also mentioned here in the New York Times article,
26:29
Speaker 2: is stunning. The official Saudi numbers reflect their lowest level
26:34
Speaker 2: of crude export or production from 1990. which is insanity.
26:41
Speaker 2: He says the most interesting part is the direct communication
26:44
Speaker 2: from Saudi Arabia and the official numbers reflect Saudi supply
26:48
Speaker 2: to market. Riyadh also says that actual production has crashed
26:53
Speaker 2: in August as a result of the Houthi maritime ban,
26:56
Speaker 2: which has mucked up and rerouted Saudi logistics and attacks
26:59
Speaker 2: that have hit infrastructure. So when you put these two
27:02
Speaker 2: things together, that is genuinely shocking. All of it is
27:07
Speaker 2: now putting and showing up in the oil market this morning.
27:10
Speaker 2: Let me just make sure as of the exact moment.
27:13
Speaker 2: that I'm speaking. Yep, Brent is now sitting at $ 105
27:16
Speaker 2: per barrel. So again, translates to 430 roughly national in
27:22
Speaker 2: terms of your gasoline average. Already, the diesel prices are
27:26
Speaker 2: going nuts. $ 200 a barrel, as I mentioned earlier. So
27:31
Speaker 2: we're not in crisis territory yet, but things are tipping
27:36
Speaker 2: into some serious problems here where there's just enough now
27:40
Speaker 2: happening on the battlefield. that you can see how things
27:43
Speaker 2: are marching towards a genuine crisis point. And it's funny,
27:46
Speaker 2: I almost made a joke this morning. I'm like, oh,
27:48
Speaker 2: the Houthis took a territory. Saudi Arabia should try bombing them.
27:52
Speaker 2: That'll work.
27:52
Speaker 1: Right.
27:53
Speaker 2: Maybe we should get involved. Yeah, maybe we should get involved.
27:55
Speaker 2: That's done well for us. We've only tried to bomb
27:58
Speaker 2: them for the last, what, 12 years or something like that?
28:01
Speaker 2: And the fact that they're able to have this amount
28:03
Speaker 2: of success on the battlefield... I mean, it's crazy.
28:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, completely.
28:07
Speaker 1: And reports are this morning they were able to recapture
28:10
Speaker 1: this strategic island, Zuccar Island, in the southern Red Sea. Again,
28:15
Speaker 1: these are all incredibly important strategic positions in terms of
28:18
Speaker 1: control over the Bab al-Mandab Strait. There's another island right
28:21
Speaker 1: there that they're apparently working to take control over. So
28:25
Speaker 1: they very much seem to have the upper hand in
28:27
Speaker 1: this highly significant offensive, which obviously matters for them and
28:31
Speaker 1: for their war with Saudi Arabia and with the other
28:35
Speaker 1: internationally recognized Yemeni government, but also has major implications in
28:39
Speaker 1: terms of the Iran war and what you're paying at
28:41
Speaker 1: the gas pump. In addition, we've got this information. We
28:43
Speaker 1: put F-0 up on the screen. There was this huge, obviously,
28:46
Speaker 1: exchange of fire between the U.S. and Iran the other day.
28:50
Speaker 1: We now have some information, courtesy of CBS News, about
28:53
Speaker 1: the damage that the American side suffered in those strikes.
28:58
Speaker 1: So they say multiple American military aircraft suffered damage in
29:02
Speaker 1: strikes overnight. On this airbase in Jordan, one A-10 Thunderbolt,
29:07
Speaker 1: known as the Warthog, was struck and left with a
29:09
Speaker 1: missing wing. Roughly eight F-15 sustained light damage were placed
29:13
Speaker 1: back into service, according to us. American forces in Jordan
29:16
Speaker 1: launched more than 30 Patriot missiles defending against the Iranian strikes.
29:20
Speaker 1: I would guess very much that is an undercount. The
29:22
Speaker 1: overnight damage came after the U.S. attacked five Iranian tankers
29:25
Speaker 1: in retaliation. So, talking about significant military aircraft damaged here.
29:31
Speaker 1: And another thing that's noteworthy is that Iran had, the
29:35
Speaker 1: IRGC had put out this very similar analysis of what
29:39
Speaker 1: they had been able to strike. So this is effectively
29:41
Speaker 1: confirmation of what the IRGC had been saying about the
29:44
Speaker 1: success of their attack.
29:45
Speaker 2: A couple of military analysts this morning noting that this
29:48
Speaker 2: is actually the first time that they have been able
29:51
Speaker 2: to hit some of these aircraft, these specific aircraft on
29:55
Speaker 2: the ground. They knew immediately what they had hit. which
29:59
Speaker 2: shows that they had satellite imagery. Of course, we already
30:02
Speaker 2: knew that because China and Russia have been supplying them
30:05
Speaker 2: with a lot of this. And they have some of
30:06
Speaker 2: their own through a power sharing agreement that they have
30:09
Speaker 2: with some of these Chinese satellite companies. They were able
30:11
Speaker 2: to publish a damage assessment. And it also shows you
30:15
Speaker 2: why we fired so many of those damn Patriot missiles.
30:19
Speaker 2: So like, let's take a look, F-15 cost. What are
30:22
Speaker 2: we looking at? 117 million. So eight of them, which
30:26
Speaker 2: are damaged, The full cost, $ 117 million, that's about a
30:30
Speaker 2: billion dollars worth of aircraft there, which just took a
30:32
Speaker 2: little bit of damage. The A-10, God bless it, is
30:35
Speaker 2: much cheaper, my favorite airplane. But you can actually still
30:38
Speaker 2: see how to knock a wing off of an aircraft.
30:41
Speaker 2: I mean, that's not even something the Taliban was ever
30:44
Speaker 2: able to do in 20 years of war in Afghanistan,
30:47
Speaker 2: especially in a targeted strike like this. So 30 Patriot missiles,
30:52
Speaker 2: by the way, they say more than 30, so the
30:54
Speaker 2: real number could be 60. Each Patriot is what? 4
30:57
Speaker 2: million something. So four times 30 minimum of 120 million
31:02
Speaker 2: in a single five minute salvo, more likely 60. So
31:05
Speaker 2: about a quarter billion that we just set on fire,
31:08
Speaker 2: not even to mention the replacement timeline. And the cost,
31:11
Speaker 2: I mean, what are we doing? This whole thing is
31:13
Speaker 2: total insanity and just shows the problem. By the way,
31:17
Speaker 2: the fact that they're able to hit all these things
31:18
Speaker 2: in Jordan, which is far away from Iran, if you
31:21
Speaker 2: want to take a look at a map, should show
31:23
Speaker 2: you how even moving outside of the immediate Gulf area
31:26
Speaker 2: doesn't mean that any of these things are safe.
31:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I was reading this morning, too, they're using
31:31
Speaker 1: these more maneuverable missiles. It's making it harder for us
31:34
Speaker 1: to be able to shoot them down. And there have
31:36
Speaker 1: been a lot of close calls in terms of not
31:38
Speaker 1: just this base, but also our warships in the region.
31:42
Speaker 3: Trump is claiming.
31:44
Speaker 1: that the war is going to end right after the midterms,
31:47
Speaker 1: that Iran is determined to hit us hard. It is
31:49
Speaker 1: interesting that this latest conflagration was right after Labor Day,
31:52
Speaker 1: which is like the traditional start of the campaign season.
31:54
Speaker 1: I have no doubt that Iran is focused on the
31:58
Speaker 1: midterms and trying to force a political price on Trump.
32:02
Speaker 1: The idea that they're just going to stop after the
32:04
Speaker 1: midterms seems a little bit far-fetched to me, but that's
32:06
Speaker 1: what Trump is pushing. Let's play F1.
32:09
Speaker 4: I think the war will end immediately after the election.
32:12
Speaker 4: That's all I ask. Because they can't hold out any longer.
32:16
Speaker 4: They're desperate to try and affect the election so that
32:20
Speaker 4: we can get a nice, weak group of people in
32:22
Speaker 4: there and leave them alone and let them have their
32:25
Speaker 4: nuclear weapon. All they want is.
32:27
Speaker 5: A nuclear weapon.
32:28
Speaker 4: And if they had a nuclear weapon, the whole world
32:30
Speaker 4: is in deep trouble.
32:32
Speaker 1: But apparently his advisers are seeing things quite differently. Put
32:37
Speaker 1: F1B up on the screen. This is a scoop from
32:39
Speaker 1: The Wall Street Journal. You have Vance and Rubio in
32:41
Speaker 1: particular telling him that the Iran war may last through
32:46
Speaker 1: the end of his presidency. And, of course, they have
32:49
Speaker 1: great interest because they're thinking about, oh, when I'm campaigning
32:51
Speaker 1: for president in 2028, how is that going to go
32:54
Speaker 1: for me? And if the Iran war is continuing to
32:57
Speaker 1: drag on and gas prices continue to be sky high
33:01
Speaker 1: and all of the attendant other issues that come with
33:03
Speaker 1: the war– that's probably going to be a pretty difficult
33:06
Speaker 1: political landscape.
33:07
Speaker 2: Or if they do win, I mean, this is the
33:09
Speaker 2: shit sandwich that you have to eat on day one
33:11
Speaker 2: in the Oval. I mean, look, in closed doors, the
33:15
Speaker 2: discussions come as Trump says that the war will end immediately,
33:19
Speaker 2: but that honestly, Tehran could continue to resist US pressure
33:24
Speaker 2: under the blockade and under military tactics, extending the conflict
33:28
Speaker 2: past inauguration day in January, 2029. Now, Iran would never,
33:34
Speaker 2: you know, intentionally hold a hostage or a conflict all
33:39
Speaker 2: the way up until inauguration day. Would they? Would they?
33:43
Speaker 2: That's never happened before. If you don't know what I'm
33:47
Speaker 2: talking about, that's literally what they did in the hostage
33:49
Speaker 2: crisis in 1979 or 1980, I guess. So yeah, I
33:54
Speaker 2: don't think it takes a genius to figure that one out.
33:56
Speaker 2: And in fact, that's genuinely going to be their best strategy.
34:01
Speaker 2: I also think that the fact that they're raising that
34:03
Speaker 2: in the Oval Office demonstrates how they're trying to prepare
34:08
Speaker 2: him for what the reality of what I think he
34:11
Speaker 2: wants to do looks like, is he wants to keep
34:13
Speaker 2: the blockade going forever. He wants to have some sort
34:17
Speaker 2: of semblance of victory. And in fact, I mean, the
34:19
Speaker 2: most likely scenario is an escalation on the Iranian side
34:23
Speaker 2: of some kind of Midterms are a disaster. Trump has
34:27
Speaker 2: to spend probably 95% of his time just stopping investigations
34:33
Speaker 2: in the House and the Senate, impeachments, all this other
34:35
Speaker 2: crazy stuff that's happening. So what do you do? You
34:38
Speaker 2: try to reclaim the narrative by escalating the war or
34:40
Speaker 2: by taking control of foreign policy, which ultimately you're the
34:43
Speaker 2: commander in chief. I mean, it's a very natural thing.
34:46
Speaker 2: For most White Houses, they become obsessed with foreign policy
34:48
Speaker 2: because they can't do anything in Congress. This would be
34:50
Speaker 2: that to the nth degree. Yeah, that and the ballroom.
34:53
Speaker 2: And the ballroom, sorry, I forgot.
34:54
Speaker 1: The Supreme Court has also said, sure, you can go
34:57
Speaker 1: ahead and keep building until we get around to it.
34:59
Speaker 2: I mean, there's a lot of, to give context, like
35:01
Speaker 2: with Clinton, there was this entire conspiracy at the time
35:04
Speaker 2: that the reason that he, I think either bombed bin
35:07
Speaker 2: Laden in response to the embassy attacks was because of
35:10
Speaker 2: the Lewinsky scandal or that he tried to handle it.
35:13
Speaker 2: Or he was distracted, I think, from the terrorism threat
35:16
Speaker 2: at the time. So it's not like it doesn't happen.
35:18
Speaker 2: It's a very common second-term story, except here you're going
35:21
Speaker 2: to dial it all the way back up. My only
35:23
Speaker 2: point just is that things are moving in a very
35:26
Speaker 2: bad direction. With $ 105 barrels, with the Bab al-Mandeb Strait
35:30
Speaker 2: and the Port of Mocha now falling to Yemen's Houthis,
35:34
Speaker 2: they have no ability to to constrain them. Obviously, a
35:37
Speaker 2: Saudi bombing campaign is not going to work. We know
35:39
Speaker 2: because they tried. An American bombing campaign is not going
35:41
Speaker 2: to work. And if it did, it would have to stop.
35:44
Speaker 2: They would have to take resources away from the blockade.
35:46
Speaker 2: Aircraft are all being damaged. They claim that they're back
35:49
Speaker 2: in service. Who knows, you know, whether any of that's true.
35:53
Speaker 2: Things are really reaching, I wouldn't say crisis point yet, but,
35:55
Speaker 2: you know, all the script right now is being written.
35:58
Speaker 3: Not good.
35:59
Speaker 2: All right. Thank you guys so much for watching. Appreciate it.
36:01
Speaker 2: Friday's show for everybody tomorrow. See you then.