Latest / Mike Check - A College Football Podcast / BIG GAME PREVIEW: NOTRE DAME VS BYU
Transcript
- Jackson: Alright, next game. Number two, Notre Dame travels to Provo to face number eight BYU. This is a night game, seven thirty PM Eastern time kick, which is I believe five thirty local time. spread here, Notre Dame minus ten and a half over under forty six and a half. So yeah, what y'all got? Davis: Yeah. So is worth noting BYU's leading rusher and last year's Big Ten player of the year, LJ Martin, their running back, out for this game. He I think it was a ankle or lower leg injury two weeks ago. So he is out for this game. And then Notre Dame's all American corner, Leonard Moore is questionable. when I checked earlier this morning with the concussion he missed last week. I did not check before we we started recording, but yeah, as of this morning, he was questionable. obviously two great players. if Leonard Moore is in in the game, then it it'll definitely have a a a impact. Jackson: Yeah. So I hate to keep bringing this up, but it it's valid when you're trying to analyze a game and give a preview on a big game like this. Notre Dame just has really not played very many good teams. I mean North Carolina was the closest game they played. That was an eleven point game on the road. But other than that it just the schedule hasn't been there, so it's kinda hard to evaluate Notre Dame. But with that being said, they have really just dominated most of the teams they played. The their their defense is exceptional, their offense is good. One thing I notice with their offense is is they really try to they're more efficient than they are explosive. They try to stay ahead of the change, they don't turn the ball over. the one hole I did find in in the Notre Dame offense is that their third down conversion rate is only thirty nine point five percent, which is eighty third in the country. So, maybe for BYU the key to the game is is probably stopping that run game and making CJ Carr make plays with his arms, but e even then I I I don't I don't see them just stopping Notre Dame. yeah. I i Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Notre Dame's good. Th there's no there's no arguing that, but it's it's Davis: Yeah. Jackson: hard to tell how good they are given the given the weak weaker competition. Davis: Yeah, and I'm glad that Matthew: Yeah. Davis: you kind of mentioned that explosive play rate. I'll take it one step further. Notre Dame plays at the hundred and first 101st slowest pace in college football. BYU plays at the 135th slowest. Notre Dame doesn't rank well in explosive play rate, neither does BYU. Notre Dame only has one turnover all year. BYU only has three. So I really think that this is gonna be like a grinded out physical game. Every yard is earned. I think Notre Dame wins, but you you give me that type of game and then you say the spread is ten and a half and I think that that's too much. I like Notre Dame to win, but don't think they'll cover. Jackson: I agree with you. I'm gonna take the BYU and the and the points too. I just think at home I think Kalani Sataki is a really good coach. BYU plays exceptionally well at home. it's a night game in Provo. And one thing I think to look out for is they're gonna have to really run bare Bachmaier in this game. Davis: Mm-hmm. Jackson: and i if you're BYU it's gotta work. I mean we mentioned both these teams wanna slow the ball down and control the pace, but I looked into Notre Dame's closest game against North Carolina and UNC's passing success rate was fifty-two percent, which is I mean, not terrible against that defense, but their rushing success rate was twenty-three percent. which is not good. So I think BYU may have a harder time running the ball, but I think one thing you have to remember with BYU, it's not just running between the tackles and even running with the running back. They get creative with Bear Bachmeyer and how they run him and how they call their run plays. So I think that's gonna be big if you're Notre Dame if you if you want to control this game is stopping the run and making Bear Bachmar use his arm and and beat you through the ear. So yeah, I I I think it's gonna be closer than ten. I like Notre Dame to win, but I think I think BY you can keep it close. Davis: On that point about, BYU needing to run the ball. so in the one game without LJ Martin last week, they ran Bear Bachmeyer Moore. He had nine carries for 109 yards. However, their backup running back, Journey Tonga and Preston Rex, it was kind of a backfield by committee, rushed for 40 yards on 14 combined rushes. So definitely a different rushing team without LJ Martin. Matthew: I I think that's the biggest issue for me, with BYU. I think too much is gonna be put on Bear Bachmeyer's shoulders, having to, you know, play a team that's has a better talent profile than you and you don't have your best running back, who's an all American who you've leaned on consistently. I just don't I I I don't know if he's Jackson: No. Matthew: I think by the second half I think is where is where Notre Dame starts to pull away. because I just think he runs out of gas and i it's too much is on his shoulders and I know some of Notre Dame's numbers are skewed based on competition, but I I just think that they've really h handled their business. And BYU's a top ten team, you know, but they're still, a ten and a half point underdog, for a reason. I think there's just a a talent difference in these teams. I think it could be similar to the Wisconsin game for Notre Dame. where it's close early and they ha you know, maybe they have a turnover or make a special teams play to keep themselves in the game. but I think in the second half BYU just gets worn down and I I think they that Notre Dame covers slightly. I'm thinking like thirteen, fourteen points. Davis: Yeah. I went back and forth on that game.