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Will African-American voter turnout decide who holds power in the US Congress · DEEP INSIGHT

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  Speaker 1: The midterm elections in the US are now just six
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  Speaker 1: days away and the campaigning is in overdrive. Many pollsters
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  Speaker 1: are predicting that voter anger over rising prices could trigger
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  Speaker 1: a blue wave for the Democratic Party, handing them control
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  Speaker 1: of the House and possibly even the Senate. Despite his
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  Speaker 1: low approval rating, President Donald Trump has been holding a
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  Speaker 1: blitz of rallies across the country. He's hoping his personal
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  Speaker 1: appeal will shore up traditional Republican strongholds that could otherwise
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  Speaker 1: swing against him next Tuesday. Democrats are banking on a
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  Speaker 1: big turnout from African-American voters to win those crucial races,
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  Speaker 1: especially in the South. DW's Michaela Küffner was in the
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  Speaker 1: state of Georgia and asked black voters there about their concerns.
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  Speaker 2: I'd love to hear the key issues that you're concerned
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  Speaker 2: about in these upcoming midterm elections. Gas prices.
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  Speaker 1: We need the gas to go down. We need the
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  Speaker 1: grocery to go down.
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  Speaker 2: We need the wages to go up. We need to
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  Speaker 2: have attention put on our seniors, you know, and the
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  Speaker 2: health care and everything for our seniors. Help people with Medicare.
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  Speaker 2: It's very important. Housing. Veterans. What I would like to happen,
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  Speaker 2: more things for the kids around here. Is Trump doing
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  Speaker 2: anything for you as black Americans specifically? Trump ain't doing
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  Speaker 2: nothing for nobody really but himself and his family. It's
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  Speaker 2: not just black Americans anymore. It affects everybody now. Everybody
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  Speaker 2: get to see what we've been feeling.
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  Speaker 1: Now let's bring in Andra Gillespie. She's a political scientist
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  Speaker 1: from Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia, and her research focuses...
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  Speaker 1: on African-American politics. Andra, we just heard there from some
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  Speaker 1: African-American voters, but it sounds like they share the concerns
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  Speaker 1: of most other voting groups, inflation, the high price of gasoline.
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  Speaker 1: Is that something that you observe as well?
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  Speaker 2: Yes, absolutely. African-American concerns are often the same concerns as
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  Speaker 2: everybody else. And in this election cycle, questions about affordability
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  Speaker 2: and the state of the economy are paramount in the
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  Speaker 2: minds of voters. For African-Americans who are more likely to
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  Speaker 2: have socioeconomic disadvantages, whether that's lower than average wages compared
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  Speaker 2: to their white counterparts, lower than average wealth compared to
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  Speaker 2: their white counterparts, the effects of inflation are going to
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  Speaker 2: be more acutely felt. And so it is not surprising
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  Speaker 2: that when we ask voters across the racial spectrum what
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  Speaker 2: their top concerns are, people are citing inflation and the
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  Speaker 2: economy as their top issue.
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  Speaker 1: But to what extent can you then talk about and
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  Speaker 1: politically target the African-American vote?
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  Speaker 2: Well, you can target with persuasion messages, but you also
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  Speaker 2: need to target with mobilization and outreach. And a lot
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  Speaker 2: of the complaints that you hear in African-American circles about
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  Speaker 2: Blacks feeling abandoned by the Democratic Party or feeling taken
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  Speaker 2: for granted by the Democratic Party are have to do
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  Speaker 2: with a lack of outreach. Because Blacks are perceived to
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  Speaker 2: vote about 90 percent Democratic, and now we would say
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  Speaker 2: between 85 and 90 percent Democratic, there are some strategists,
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  Speaker 2: some campaign managers that would actually end up focusing on
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  Speaker 2: voters whose vote is going to split a that you
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  Speaker 2: get African-Americans to turn out. But if you're in southern
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  Speaker 2: states with large Black populations, given the racial polarization and
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  Speaker 2: party identification and voting, if Democrats hope to be competitive,
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  Speaker 2: they have to maximize Black voter turnout, which means they
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  Speaker 2: need to be holding events in these communities. They need
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  Speaker 2: to be sending people into Black neighborhoods and Black communities
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  Speaker 2: And Black cities and towns and making sure that they're
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  Speaker 2: spending as much time phone banking in those communities, sending
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  Speaker 2: people to canvas those communities to remind people of the election.
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  Speaker 2: What Black people who are complaining about the lack of
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  Speaker 2: outreach from the Democratic Party are basically asking for is attention.
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  Speaker 2: They're asking for people to campaign in their communities and
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  Speaker 2: to speak to their issues as well.
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  Speaker 1: You mentioned turnout. Do you think a large turnout of
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  Speaker 1: black voters could have a big impact on this election
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  Speaker 1: and why?
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  Speaker 2: In places where you see anemic black turnout, there could
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  Speaker 2: be that could be the difference between winning and losing
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  Speaker 2: an election. So if we take this nationally. People are
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  Speaker 2: concerned in Michigan about turnout in the Detroit area, which
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  Speaker 2: is a heavily Black city, because the race between Abdul
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  Speaker 2: El-Sayed and Mike Rogers is very close. And if you
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  Speaker 2: have anemic Black turnout in the Detroit area in Wayne County,
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  Speaker 2: that could be the margin of difference between these two candidates.
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  Speaker 2: And so if we think back to 2016... The margin
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  Speaker 2: in Michigan was actually very, very narrow and could have
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  Speaker 2: been made up by higher Black turnout in Detroit. In Georgia,
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  Speaker 2: where Blacks make up more than 30% of the electorate,
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  Speaker 2: Democrats need blacks to maximize their turnout or match proportionally
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  Speaker 2: the turnout of their white counterparts. If whites turn out
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  Speaker 2: at a disproportionately higher rate than their black counterparts do,
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  Speaker 2: it's very likely that those white voters are more likely
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  Speaker 2: to be Republican. And then it's going to be hard
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  Speaker 2: for Democrats to make up the deficit. So a general
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  Speaker 2: rule of thumb is in Georgia, you need blacks to
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  Speaker 2: make up about 30 percent of the electorate and blacks
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  Speaker 2: make up 30 percent of registered voters in the state
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  Speaker 2: of Georgia. And ideally, a Democratic candidate would get 30
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  Speaker 2: percent of the white vote. Now, you don't necessarily have
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  Speaker 2: to hit those targets. Those rules were put in place
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  Speaker 2: before there was a large Asian-American and Latino voting bloc.
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  Speaker 2: But you have to get pretty close to that. in
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  Speaker 2: order for a Democratic candidate to be viable in the state,
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  Speaker 2: because there are still more Republicans than there are Democrats
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  Speaker 2: in Georgia.
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  Speaker 1: Now, Barack Obama is on the campaign trail as well.
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  Speaker 1: You think he can still move the needle when it
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  Speaker 1: comes to mobilizing the African-American vote?
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  Speaker 2: Well, I think it's an important caveat, and I would
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  Speaker 2: say this for anybody, that rallies don't vote. People vote.
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  Speaker 2: These major campaign events don't. are intended, one, to get
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  Speaker 2: earned media, to get free media attention. You hope that
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  Speaker 2: there are viral moments. To the extent that there are
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  Speaker 2: points made rhetorically in these speeches that could convince the
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  Speaker 2: tiny sliver of persuadable voters to change their mind and
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  Speaker 2: support one candidate or another, they're effective. But the other
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  Speaker 2: sort of importance of rallies is the effect that they
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  Speaker 2: could have on mobilizers. So for the people who are
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  Speaker 2: knocking on the doors, the people who are making the
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  Speaker 2: phone calls, right, by being able to attend an event
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  Speaker 2: like this, you hope that the speaker energizes that volunteer
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  Speaker 2: base and that makes them even more willing to go
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  Speaker 2: and knock on doors. So you hope that the energy
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  Speaker 2: from that debate then translates into knocking on those 10
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  Speaker 2: extra doors. or making those 20 extra phone calls or
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  Speaker 2: staying out doing the work until eight or nine o'clock
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  Speaker 2: at night or doing the behind the scenes work until midnight.
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  Speaker 2: So I think we have to kind of temper our expectations,
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  Speaker 2: but realize that rallies are an important focal point for
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  Speaker 2: people to rejuvenate and then also for the surrogate to
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  Speaker 2: make really important persuasion talking points for those who still
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  Speaker 2: might be making up their mind about who they want
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  Speaker 2: to vote for.
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  Speaker 1: Very interesting. Thank you very much. Andra Gillespie from Emory
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  Speaker 1: University in Atlanta, Georgia. Thank you.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you.