Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Barreling Into NFL Week 8

Transcript

Barreling Into NFL Week 8 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: or as I have officially renamed this podcast the greatest
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: and the fastest growing and the one that gives away
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: the most literal money. I'm not just talking about dollars
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: through picks. I'm talking actual dollars. That's this podcast the
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: greatest of all these things of all time. Because we
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: have strund there are another big winning week I am
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: Chad Moman from the Action Network and I am joined
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: as I am every week by Professional Better, Simon Hunter.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Simon say Hello, take about brother, Hello, chat and listeners,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: how are you good? Buddy? That was and that was
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: painful for some of our listeners without Browns game, that
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: was a fun weekend for me. Oh my god, it was.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: It was definitely a good weekend, buddy. We dodged some bullets,
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: we stepped into some traps, but overall we had a
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: winning weekend. We did, and I'm gonna I'm gonna remind
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: everybody that you Professional Better you're joining the podcast every
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: single week we have entered the Draft Kings Pro Football
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Pick Up National Championship. We will decide what picks we
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: are going to put in together. We gotta pick five
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: games every every week. Quite frankly, we are still goddamn geniuses.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: As everybody knows. We went five last week. Before we
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: get to the to the recap, We're gonna get to
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: the recap. Before we get there, a reminder that we
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: are bringing back the cash fueled phrase that pays contest.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: What does that mean? Simon and I are doing so
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: well and we just went three and two. From now
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: out through the end of the season, we are giving
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: one lucky listener one hundred dollars for every game we
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: win each week. Last week we want three games. Here's
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: the special trick. The special bonus for one of the
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: games we lost was that Browns game that you just mentioned,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Simon including me, I will tell a story about that
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: because an extra point was missed and it did not
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: cover the three and a half point spread. So our winner,
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: which we will announce at the end of the show,
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: is getting four hundred dollars. That's how kind we are.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: That was a Matt producer, Matt mitchell uh special request
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: that I granted, being the benevolent leader that I am,
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: to be eligible for our phrase that pays contest to
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: be eligible for the cash. Go review the podcast using
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: the phrase. Simon says, we love winning and if we
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: like it and randomly choose it, you will win the money.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: That's it. We will announce last week's winner at the
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: end of the show. You so you gotta stick around,
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: all right. As I said, we went three and two
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: in the contest. I think we're twenty two and thirteen
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: last week on the on the podcast, Simeon, we were
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: committed to sticking with our early instincts and it worked mostly.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Why did you think it was such a good weekend? Um,
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: it was such a good weekend because I trusted myself
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: and um, there was a lot of line movement and
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: money coming on certain games that really scared the hell
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: out of me. Like I made a decent amount of
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: bets on green Bay on Tuesday and Wednesday, and then
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: come Saturday. Um, I think our good friend Dan rabelt
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: to it was like of the money was on green
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Bay and of the tickets were on green Bay. And
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: if you've been if you gambled long enough, especially bet
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: on football, you know that a road team that's a
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: favorite getting over nine of the money, you might only
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: win one of five, like one out of every five
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: of those kind of situations. It's it's just not it's
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: a rare it's a rare time where the book is
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: just really misread the situation and they left a ton
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: of points out there and the public. I know they're
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: getting smarter, but this is one of those where the
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: public was just coming in so heavy. So I end
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: up switching out Green Bay for US, and I end
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: up switching out the bills when Sam Donald came back,
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: and I ended up switching out Pittsburgh because basically, there's
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: there's a couple of really sharp groups that are well known,
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: and especially in Vegas, it all depends on what group
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: we're talking about. There's there's, there's some of there are
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: four or five people and they only make maybe one
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: or two bets a weekend, and they're good. And I
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: got word that this group was coming in on Tennessee
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: and I was just not really worried about it. I
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: was just giving me a little hesitation, and then I
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: checked in the morning. It was like sevent of the
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: money was on Tennessee, even though all these tickets were
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: written for Pittsburgh. So even though I loved Pittsburgh and
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: I had a lot of money on my backed out
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: of it. Because I was just like, like, these dudes
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: are pros, Like I'm also pro I read it right obviously,
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: like Green Bay. I mean, Pittsburgh won by the skin
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: of their teeth. But that was still a good number.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: But it was one of those where, Yeah, I got
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: a little scared about the professionalism the public and a
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: couple of these spots this week that kind of heard
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: us because we end up taking a public team in
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Cleveland and it burned us. It burned us. Yeah, here's
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: the thing, Simon, you're the fucking professional, Like, why are
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: you letting any of this bullshit get into your head?
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Because it's costing us fucking games. And I'll tell you
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: what else. I'll tell you what else. As everybody knows,
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: I uh was let's say I was giving advice to
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: a buddy and we had decided, you and I decided
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: together that the best bet for the early games, the
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: best bet for the early games was the Browns. Even
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: though during the week, during the week on this podcast,
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at my notes from last week, I'm seeing like,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: oh my god, we love the Steelers. Oh my god,
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: we love the Packers, Like, oh my god, oh my god,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: I have like exclamation points in my notes from last week,
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Redskins money line, Redskins money Line? How is it possible?
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: How is it possible that we end up thinking the
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: best better the week is the Browns. And I will
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: tell you my buddy, you know, he might have gone
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: pretty big on the Browns and maybe or maybe not,
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: like you know, I was influencing him in a pretty
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: big way. It's the first time. So the end of
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: that game, like Baker Mayfield makes the touchdown pass that
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: are up by three, it's the extra point. I'm standing
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: next to my fourteen year old son, arms wrapped around
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: each other, were so excited, and like as as Cody Parkey,
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: who's already broken my heart once because of the double
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: doink by egg he as he is lining up stick
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: the kick, I get a text from my buddy and
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: it just says, oh ship, and he's a couple of
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: seconds ahead of me. So I look at the text
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: and by the time I look up, Cody Parky's kick
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: is sailing wide left and my kid is like, oh
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: my god. And then I took my phone and I
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: just lightly sort of just tossed it. I'm and I screamed,
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: oh my god. It's the first time, like my kid
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: has ever heard me in anger after a bet? And
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: then I'm thinking to myself, like the Lions we loved
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: on the money line, the Steelers we loved, The Packers
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: we love like all the games that we loved. And
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: I went all in and every way on the Browns.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: I texted you like I am leveraged to the hilt
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: on the Browns. When we read the Steelers game spot
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: on on Tuesday. Yeah, also I did, and fantish to me,
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: I did text you famous last words and you said
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: you were all in on the Browns as soon as
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: all the like Green bagg cover. And I think, because
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: all these games have finished before all these big favorites,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: I go all right, mean chatter, give me the ones
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: that can get the raw deal here. But no, it's
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: a man, but all us. At the same time, that
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: was brutal, but it was like the worst one has
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: to be that New England, but that that that one's
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: not that bad because it's a clean death where it's
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: like that Cleveland when we were in it the whole time,
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: we thought we had a chance. In the New England
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: one I knew it. Probably I would say three drives
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: in for New England. That game was over for Newland
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: just Cam Newton's easy either injured or he's just done.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: But like, well we'll talk. I'm just done with New
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: England for at least the next couple of weeks until
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: they figure out that whole situation, because they just looked
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: broken right now. So it was a good weekend where
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: we had three. Three games are pretty pretty damn easy, man.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: That Washington one that was an easy no sweat, the
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: Bucks was an easy no sweat and you never really
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: doubted the Carolina one because it was seven and a half.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: As long as we had to hook even if they
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: would have kicked, got a touchdown or field goal there
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: at young we're gonna be good. So oh A was
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: a good weekend. It was a good weekend. It could
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: have been a five no weekend if we had gone
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: with the Steelers in the pack. Story of my life, right,
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: story everything, it's the story of every better's life. You know. Yeah,
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: that's that's a cracking up. You're like, how can you
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: react to that Cleveland miss And it's like this is
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: another Tuesday for me, buddy. It's just like that's just
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: how it is. Once you do this enough, you're kind
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: of not numb to it, but you're like, all right,
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: I was on the wrong side onto the next one.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: That's why I never really get too high or too low.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: It's just you're always thinking about the next one. So
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: it was funny where you were just like, how is
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: this kind of being so relaxed about the Browns here
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: or no? Man? I was. I literally got up to
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: my buddy I said, I'm dead inside. So I'm with
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: you on that one. Well I'm glad you said that
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: you're dead inside, because I will tell you that. Like
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: that was one of the first games where I could
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: barely function after. Um, Like I almost always feel okay
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: after a game, like a loss is a loss, but
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: that Cleveland one, that that took the wind out of me.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Like my buddy was texting me. He was texting me
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: and he's like, hello, are you there? Hello? And I
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: just texted back like I need a minute, And like
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: three hours later, three hours later, I hadn't texted him
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: back and he is just like at this point he's
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: just going in on me. Nice pick. I can't believe.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: I can't believe you do this for a living. What
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: is going on? Like he was, you know, completely just
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: fucking with me because he knew how like devastated I was,
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: because I like, just to lose it that way, that
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: that extra point. It just yeah, and it's uh, it's
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: one of those where like you're you're sitting there, you're
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: thinking the whole time, even though during the game, like
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: what was it a minute in Baker threw a pick,
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: I was just thinking, holy crap, man and mean, and
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: I'd rather lose on Green Bay than lose on Baker. Here.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: What were we doing? What were we thinking? Honest to god?
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: What were Yeah, well, you know we're not We're not
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: going to think about Let's get into um, let's get
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: into the Thursday night games. Uh, Thursay night game. It's
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: the Panthers are three point favorites. Opened his two and
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: a half, it's gone up to three. Um. That's because
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: most of the bets are coming in on the Panthers,
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a money edge right now on
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: the Falcons. Um hat uh hat tip her through h
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: G NFL memes, only the Falcons could score a game
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: losing touchdown. Yeah, and the worst part about that was,
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: I've so this is three times now Todd Gurley has
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: had these situations he had a twice with the Rams
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: and then with this Atlanta and all three times his
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: play involved his team not covering. It's like this guy,
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: oh Man Todder Gurley, those Rams ones. Like literally I
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: had like a night where like I woke up to
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: like a dream of him laying down from the end zone.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: I was like, I can't releave. I just had a
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: nightmare about a sports bet. So I had flashbacks to
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: him when he ran over the open field um and
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: scored that. But yeah, we fet a point now where
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: the sharp play is to take Atlanta. But I'm not
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: I'm not doing it. I can't. I can't keep back
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: in this Atlanta team. I know they're a smart play.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: And the Panthers, you like to take them as a dog.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: We like Teddy as a dog here. That's when we
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: like taking Teddy Bridgewater. But on Thursday night at home, um,
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: I saw some crazy staff with these dogs, these road
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: dogs that are plus two and a half. They're covering
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: it or like less are covering at a clip right
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: now this season. That's insanity. So this feels like an
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: even outspot where the Carolina maybe get down to two
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: and a half. I think they'll cover so I like
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: the Panthers here, all right, then let's get into But
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: you like the Panthers. We don't like panthers like in
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: a contest kind of way. We just like that. I
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: keep winning these Thursday bets and you keep not letting
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: me put them in. I hit on the Bears, and
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: I hit on the fine. Fine, no no, no, no, no, no, no,
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: no no, no, let's do it. I don't want to
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: because I'm too I'm probably like five and one on
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Thursdays or six and one, like, I don't wanna I'm
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: due for some else here. But now you don't want
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: to jinx it. Now you're afraid that if we say yes,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: it's gonna jinx, they really will Atlantic Like Matt Ryan
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: is just smiling and laying in his bed right now
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: thinking about it. Goes this is the week Simon finally
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: goes against me, and I'm gonna just cover this one easily.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: So I don't want to do it. I don't want
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: to put it in. Alright, Fine, we're not gonna put
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: it in, you know what. I don't even want to
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: talk about this game anyways, because I want to talk
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: about Let's get to the early Sunday games. The undefeated Steelers,
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: who we probably should have had in our contest this
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: past week visiting the Baltimore Ravens. To me, this game
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: is massive, you know why Right now the Ravens open
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: to five and a half. They are currently three and
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: a half. Bets coming in on the Steelers, money coming
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: in on the Steelers. You and I both bet on
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: the Steelers to win the a f C North because
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: of advice that you gave. I have the Steelers forty
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: one to win Super Bowl. Um, Like, there's a lot
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: on the line in this game. Steelers win this game,
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: and they've got a two game lead in the division,
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: and that's looking very good for our a f C
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: North bet. Yeah, I gotta love it for that value.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: And we've now hit a point where I think this
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: is a letdown spot for the Steelers. They played just
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: an insane game last week and it was an incredible win. Um,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: they got the lead and then the Titans kept coming back,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: but the Steelers didn't enough to get that one. And
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: now the public's all over them. Like you just said,
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: the numbers down to three and a half, and the
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: smart side is just the raven is off of by
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: in a divisional game. You're hoping this number goes down
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: to three. Um, but you really can't take the Steelers here.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: It's just back to back road games now in a
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: divisional game, it's it's tough for me to take the
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: Steelers here. It feels like not a letdown spot for them,
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: but it just feels like one of these games that
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: the Ravens they're gonna they're gonna win by a touchdown.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: So I would take the Ravens here, but we don't
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: have to put it in because this is such a
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: not a coin flip game. But we've seen with the
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: Ravens in these big time games, Lamar has a letdown.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: I mean that Chiefs game on Prime Time. He really
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: let down in that spot. So in a big game
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: like this, I don't want to do it. I don't
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: want to take the Ravens in our competition, but I
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: do like them betting style. I like it, Like I
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: wouldn't be averse to putting him in the competition if
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: we got the number of three. You don't hate that everything.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: I agree with everything you just said, Like this is
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot. And the Steelers, by the way, look
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: they got up big against the Titans, but if we
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: had bet that, and I will admit that, like, because
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: we didn't bet that, I was actually rooting for the
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: Titans to come back and win that game, um, just
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: because I didn't want to feel even worse about not
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: having bet it. But they let the They let the
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: Titans back in that game. They let the Eagles back
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: in the game. They have consistently sort of let teams
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: stay close. They're undefeated, and they went to do an
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: undefeated again against another undefeated team and the Titans, but
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: they were both like teams that we're lucky to get there.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: I think the Steelers are a little bit better than
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: the Titans, but I think the Ravens are probably better
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: than the Steelers. And if this number gets even lower,
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: we gotta take that bet. Yeah, And especially you're just
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: saying all these teams are these close games, and the
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: Steelers like they almost let DEM's back up QB coming
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: and beat them at home. So like you're saying, they
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: they've had a lot of these games and they pulled
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: out and they have won, and I'm with you, I
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: just feel like they're due for a letdown. The laws here,
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: all right, the Chiefs right now open to twenty one
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: over the Jets favorites. Uh, it's been bent down to
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: nineteen and a half fifty six, no sixty of the
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: money coming in on the Jets right now. Uh, it's absurd,
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: It's totally absurd. We're not going to bet this game
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: because I refuse to need the Jets in any way.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: I don't care what the value is. What a magical
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: gift the Jets have been this year. They really have
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: just every week you can tease the team against them,
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: you can put their money line against them. We're just
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: riding them and survivor Pool. It's just we're all so
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: blessed that Adam Gates. They're just keeping them to get
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: the tank trank for tank for Trevor. So it's just
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: a wonderful year of these Jets and everything you said,
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: it's true. I mean this is a pro pro line.
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: Pros are gonna take this big number. But I'm happy
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: to be on the their side. I'll take whatever the
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: Chiefs closed out there in nineteen and a half. I'm
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: good with it. Uh. Maybe I'll get back door here
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: on the Jets and like, I'll live with that. But
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: it's it's impossible not to take the Chiefs are I
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: can just see the Chiefs getting points like the Bills.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: They just kicked field goals last week. I can't compare
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: the Bills offense the Chiefs of offense. The Chiefs are
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: gonna get in the red zone, They're gonna score, and
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: what we've seen from the Jets offense is they can't score.
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: They I think they had four total yards in the
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: second half something crazy like that in that game. So
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: I'm done with the Jets. I bet them last week
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: in the spread and when they're when the Sam Donald
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: got put back into like plus eleven, plus two and
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: a half, and I'm good now for the year. I
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: don't I don't care about taking the Jets again. I'm
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: gonna ride the Chiefs here and picks and I like
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: betting wives, you will bet the Chiefs you will lay
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: twenty points in this game. Yeah, And I'm like, I'm
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: sure it could bite me in the ass, But like
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: the percentage is saying that this line should be twenty
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: three and a half, So like, I think I'm getting
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: good number here, So I'm happy to take the Chiefs.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: All right. Reminder, you mentioned Survivor. We took the Bills
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: last week in our Survivor pool. Yeah, and so we
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: will have to come up with the survivor pool pick.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: It's the easiest thing ever. The Chiefs. I mean, if
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: you don't take the Chiefs this week, you're terrible survived.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: I'm laying the suspense track. That's it. I was gonna
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: let people know at the end of the show, we're
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: gonna have to announce our survivor pool pick, and it
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: was gonna be the Chiefs. They should still listen just
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: to hear the giveaway. That's true. We're giving away That's
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: that's true. We gotta give away cash for the winner. Alright,
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: So we're gonna like the Chiefs and Survivor. We're gonna
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: like the Chiefs. We're not gonna put a no way
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: we put them in the contest. No. Here's this next
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: game is so interesting because the Bengals are hosting the Titans.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: This game opened at three and a half and it's
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: been bed up to six. Not just all the bets
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: are coming into the Titans, but a crapload of money
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: is coming into the Titans. Still early in the week.
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: It's Tuesday afternoon. Um, but I would I would be
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: dissuaded from betting this game and putting this in the
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: contest because we're not getting the best of the number,
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: Like it's just too big of a delta. It's gone
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: through four, which really is like a key number these days,
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: and so I don't want anything to do with this
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: game right now. I'm so bad with the Bengals. Man
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: every every week Joe Burrow has been burning. I'm either
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: taking him and he lets down or he plays good.
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: I'm going against them. So I'm probably going to take
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: the Titans just because they're offense. I think they could
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: not outscore this team, but they're gonna put up enough
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: points where I'm I wouldn't be worried about the back door.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: But that's the exact reason we wouldn't put the Titans
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: in our pickpool, because it's at the point now where
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: the Titans defense I can never trust them to get
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: to stop. So I can already see it now. They're
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: they're up thirteen, Joe Burrow comes down the field score somehow,
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: it goes for two and they don't cover the six.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: So I'm happy to stay away from this one the competition.
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: I don't like this game at all. Joe Burrow is
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: becoming a back door killer. He really is just like,
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: he's not someone I want to have the ball. If
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: I'm betting against him at the end of the game, Yeah,
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: win your game right now, but certainly gonna lose your bets.
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: This is it's starting to remind me, we'll see what's
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: the deal with to uh, but we've been due for
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: an Eli Rivers Roethlisberger draft of just three really good
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks you'd want on your team, and it's starting to
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: feel like this might be that draft class where Joe
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: he's really showing me. This kid is tough as hell
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: and he's good like his some of his passes are
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: just really sharp. And we've seen with Herbert over in
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: California where he's really carrying in San Diego. So I'm really,
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: I'm really have high hopes for to hopefully played as
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: well with Miami because I love all these rookies this
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: year so far. That is a professional transition, Simon Hunter,
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: because the next game we're talking about Los Angeles rams
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: on the road in Miami, uh four three and a half.
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: Let's say it's there three and a half point favorites
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: right now, which is where it opened against two up
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: for the first time. What a charming, lovely moment that
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: was a couple of weeks ago where someone caught that
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: image of him sitting on the spot on the field
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: where he took his first snapped and his parents. How
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: Ryan Fitzpatrick has handled this Fits magic magic magic, and
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: the way he was cheering people on. I know that
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: he's bummed he's getting pulled when he's having a top
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: ten season and playing really well and the team is
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: in playoff contention. But I don't mind the move, and
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: I'm super excited to see what TA can do. Yeah,
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: it's the right move. Though, Um, we all feel bad
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: for Fits and we love the guy. He's he's fun,
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: he takes hits, he never leaves games, and he's just
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: tough as hell. But to his upside is just so high.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: But they've kind of hit a point where they're looking
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: at their team and saying, you know, maybe we could
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: win this to vision, and I'm agreeing with them. I
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: think two gives him the best chance of doing that
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: because if he is what they think he is gonna be,
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: like what they've seen in practice, this kid is gonna
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: be the real deal in the NFL. I mean, his
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: his past in Alabama was incredible. So I'm coming to
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: a game here where you're asking me to take a
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: rookie at home when his first start after a buy,
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: I don't love it. I just feel like it's too
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: much time to think about this moment and it worries
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: me a little bit, where um, he might just let
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: down here and I know the Rams just had a
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: huge win in prime time and these are usually teams
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: I like fath especially the fact they're traveling across country
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: to Florida. But it makes me just nervous where it's
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: to his first start and he's had a lot of
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: time to think about it, and he might overdo it,
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: not just play like free and be overthinking every situation.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: So I wouldn't put this one in. I'm probably gonna
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: end up taking the Ram um, but I don't want
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: to go against this Dolphins team or competition. I don't
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: either like forget about two of for a second. I
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: love Brian Floores as a coach. He always has them
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: ready to play. They play so freaking hard and with
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: two weeks rest coming off a bye against a short
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: week for the Rams traveling across country Like this Rams team,
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: they're not world beaters, like they beat up on a
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: bad Bears team that like, if you think about the Bears,
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: Chad guy, come on, they're they're not a bad team.
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: That was just a trap spot. We we saw it
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: coming last week. We talked about last week. That was
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: just a bad spot. No, they're just a bad team.
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: Is there anybody on that team, anybody in any position
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: of skill on that team that frightens you? Is Nick Foles? Guy?
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: Like right now? Right now, here's the guys who like
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: might be a value in a tradeable market. Allen Robinson
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: and Allen Robinson, you're not gonna trade. You don't care
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: about Anthony Miller. You don't I'm talking about offense. You
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: don't care about Poles. You don't care about David Montgomery,
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: who like scatters around instead of running north and south.
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: And like and by the way, like last night I
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: wunnay to night football. They were talking about this Bears
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: defense like they were so great. All they did was
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: rack up penalties Like this, This team last night was
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: the team that I always worried they would be, and
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: that from a statistical perspective, they might have shown they
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: really are throughout the year. Only they've gotten lucky in
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: some spots um. So yeah, it was a bad spot
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: for the Bears, but the Rams also beat up on
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: a bad team. Chad's taken this well. Chad, who was
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: the quarterback when you guys went to Super Bowl a
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: couple of years ago. You mean when we went to
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl fourteen years ago? Yeah, who's that quarterback?
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: Rex Grossman? Okay, say that one more time, Tony. Listen,
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: don't try to make me prove my point. Here's my
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: bigger point about that Super Bowl. Rex Grossman wasn't the
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: problem in that game. The problem was Ron Turner, the
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: offensive coordinator, decided the better bet was to put the
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: ball in Rex Grossman's hands instead of giving the ball
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: of Thomas Jones, who had an incredible year. And so
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: the Bears ended up losing because they didn't use their
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: best offensive weapons in a game in which there was
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: a freaking downpour. And the only thing anyone remembers is
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: that Peyton Manning used to practice with wet balls and
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: that makes him a genius. And Prince had the greatest
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: halftime show in the history of the Super Bowl. Chad,
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: you're a habitual line step from my front. But yeah,
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: I love I'm I'm I'm such a Barris fan this year.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: I just love their defense so much. Everything you said
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: it's true, but I just had faith that Naggy and
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: Nick Foles are two veteran guys. They'll make adjustments because
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: the offense he's running is if you guys have a
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: world class offensive line. You don't have that. You have
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: a banged up, not that good offensive line. So once
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: they figure out these quick passes and just getting the
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: ball out Nick's hands, I'm telling you, I still got
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: high hopes for this Barras team, so unlike you, I
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: haven't given up yet. Well, we do have them to
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: win the NFC North and we do have them to
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl, so you know, we still got
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: some money there. We still got some money and play
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: all right. Let's all right, So we're gonna skip on
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: the Rams and and the Dolphins by the way. At
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: this point, like we got one game that we might like,
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: which is the Ravens if they get to minus three.
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: We were not finding a lot of takers here. Let's
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: talk about the Colts. They are three point favorites on
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: the road at Detroit, getting all the money and majority
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: of the bets. Oh Man I'm probably gonna fall into
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: this trap then, because I love the Colts. I think
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: this is such a great, great, great position for the cold.
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: So they're getting healthy off of bye two two straight
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: road winds for the lines, and that last one was
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: an epic fashion that's like the high of highs. This
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: is just great where the Colts. I'm not worried about
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: Philip Rivers here because I'm not gonna be relying on
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: I'm relying on the Colts defense, and I think they
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: match up really well with Detroit and the fact that
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: the culture gonna be healthy. They needed time for their
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: just the D line linebacking court to get right with
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: the Colts, so blind, you're gonna run on them Colts.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: They love to run the ball. I'm with the public here,
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: I'm taking the Colts. You know what, You and me
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: both brother both love the Colts for all the reasons
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: you just said. Ay, the Colts defense was the best
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: defense in the NFL before they went into the bye
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: and before they started getting really injured. Right, So now
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: they've had this two weeks to get better. The Lions,
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: like they've always been a cardiac team, but it's one
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: thing to be a Cardiac team. When you're playing against
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: the Falcons. It's one thing to go on the road
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: and blow out the Jaguars. It's another thing to host
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: a really good team and also at home. But also
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: this is a coaching matchup. And at the end of
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: the day, Frank Reich is just a much better coach
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: than Matt Patricia. Matt Patricia is is out of his
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: league when it comes to coaching. And I know we
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: don't give value to coaches from a point spread perspective,
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: but I am behind Frank Reich in this game. Yeah,
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: let's put it in boom. We got the Indianapolis Colts
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: as three point favorites on the road at the lines,
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: and you know what, I don't care what happens over
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: the course of the week. I don't care how much
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: more money comes in. I don't care how many syndicates
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: come in. Dude, we are locking it in the Colts,
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: all right? Should we make it to bet your balls?
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: Are we? Is this to bet your ball? No? Because
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: I like doing I like fading the public on those
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: that we're three and now I want to keep it winning,
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: all right. We need to bet our balls. We need
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: to find a hornet's nest. I don't think we're walking
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: into a Hornets nest with the Patriots and the Bills
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: right now. Patriots four point dogs on the road in Buffalo,
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: game open to three. Yeah, I mean I'm done. I'm
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: done back in the Patriots. I feel like a soldier
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: that just fought on the front line and just walk
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: back home. I'm just like, I'm done. I'm done fighting
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: for this team. Where I get what people are saying
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: that was a bad matchup with the same frame because
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: the forty niners O line and D line is restraints
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: and that's what the biggest weakness is right now for
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: New England. But from what I saw with Kim, he's
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: just hitting, He's throwing balls into the turf, and he's
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: just not He doesn't seem right. He seems hurt or
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: maybe he's still have an effection from COVID. Who really knows.
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: But I came back him again. I know the Bills
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: have been bad. Josh Allen's not was not scoring touchdowns
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: against the Jets, and he made a sweat that whole
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: survivor pool because he couldn't turn these great drives and
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: the touchdowns, which is I mean, something's not right with
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: the Bills, so I wouldn't put this in, but I'm
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: gonna be betting the Bills this week. I'm not. I'm
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: not back in the Patriot until they get right consistently
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: for a couple of weeks in a row. I take
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: Cam Newton's career in the NFL as a regular QB
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: one is over. I think you're right, and I think
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: it's it's funny where all of us a couple of
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: weeks in, we're like, oh my god, Bill does it again.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: He gets camped for nothing. All these teams like can walk.
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, you Bear fans were killing yourselves because you're like,
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: we paid Nick Foles a ton of money to come here,
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: and we could have camp for a million dollars. But
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: I think we're just seeing the wear and tear of
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: a running quarterback. He's just he's just beat up. So
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: I'm with you. I don't, I don't. I don't see
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: him being a starter next year for any teams. The
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: Raiders are visiting the Cleveland Browns two and a half
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: point favorites. Right now. The Browns are at home. Money
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: and bets have all come in on the Raiders. It
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: seems interesting to me that the Raiders who didn't play
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: very well this past week. Uh getting the money and
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: the bets? Are we thinking like wise? Guys are playing
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: against public perception here. Maybe I think it's just a
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: public in general. We just most people just lost money
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: in the Browns. Why are they gonna come the next
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: day and go, yeah, I'm gonna double down the Browns
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: this week just because I lost that hook last week
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: with the Browns. Most of must sit here thinking ourselves.
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: Browns aren't good, their defense can't stop anybody. And the Raiders.
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: That was just insane. The NFL made them play that game.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: Like I was so happy when I woke up Sunday
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: morning that game was still on. I was like, we
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: can get this in our competition and it's still under
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: a touchdown. Like this, Their whole offensive line left in
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: the middle of the week and then come back to
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: the facility until like Saturday or Sunday. It's it's just crazy.
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: The NFL was like, yeah, we'll push all these other
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: games on Tuesday, but instead we're gonna move this game
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: from prime time to four o'clock and give them less
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: time to be prepared so I can't fault the sharps
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: or the public for coming in on the Raiders here
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: like it's someone that is back the Browns and lost.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: It's they can't trust their defense. But I'm gonna take
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: the Browns here again at home against the Raiders team
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: that they just seem like something's missing with them, where
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: Like they're getting healthy, they're getting guys back, they put
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: good drives together, but they don't finish games. And I
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: still think that the way the Browns are, they should
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: be able to win this game at home, the way
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: they designed their offense just to run the ball, not
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: asking Baker do too much. This this should be an
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: easy one for the Raiders. Again. The Browns against the
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: Raiders team they really can't stop the run. Yeah, but
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: you gotta hope they actually do that. Like that's why
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: we liked the Browns so much against Cincinnat Eddie is
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: because they're gonna keep the ball out of Baker's hands.
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: They're gonna give it to Kareem Hunt. They're gonna run
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: through with Swiss Cheese Bengals defense and everything's gonna be
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: glorious and we're gonna win that game by twenty two points.
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: And instead, like they made bad calls in the beginning,
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: they let Baker throw the ball downfield, which led to turnovers,
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: and then their defense, as you noted, played terribly. So
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: can we trust Kevin Stefanski to make the right calls
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: against the defense that is as tattered as the Raiders? Is?
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: I feel like everything you just said, like, I don't
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: I don't want to put the Browns and I can't
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: go through it again with them. I can't do it. No,
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: I can't do it. But here's the problem. We're like
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: getting down to the end and we got one freaking
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: game that we like. All right, we got we got
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: the Vikings visiting the Packers, the Packers of touchdown favorites,
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: still very early, too early to to put any credence
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: behind any of the percentages, with money and bets both
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: being on the Packers right now? Is are we walking
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: into a hornet's nest? Are we betting our balls here?
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: What are we gonna do? God? And it's brutal because
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: I had this number at seven? Um, what side do
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: you like? Chad? Just looking at this? Yeah, I probably
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: like the Vikings at plus seven? Right, this is such
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: a pro play. It's like we have to take the Vikings,
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: saying I hate it. I hate it because the Green
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: Bay they're just good all around. They're just solid, they
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: got good defense. The reason I got to do it
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: is because the number is going to move up because
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: of all the public action, or at least the number
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: the number PRIBB stay at seven. But the public will
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: be all in on the Vikings. I mean on the
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: Packers and the Vikings and the Vikings like they're coming
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: off a bye like that. That's you know, and I
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: do think that Mike Zimmer is good coach and and
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: my feeling on the Vikings is gonna has been that
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: they were going to need to get through some time
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: for their defense to figure it out because they lost
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: so many players. And this is something that like on
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast, Stucky has been saying all year,
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: like this defense, we'll need to figure out who they are.
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: And I'm gonna bank on the fact that they're coming
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: out of a bye and have had that opportunity. Yeah,
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: they like the biggest thing here is this is the
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: Vikings season pretty much, either you win this game, you
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: get back in your division or race well, you'll lose
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: and the season is over. They're already trading out on
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: their defense for draft picks and it is one of
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: those where it's just a back against the wall for
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: the Vikings. I like them to keep it close. I'm
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: gonna take the Vikings here, but like I said it, like,
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: do we want to put this in? Because this this
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: would honestly be like I got your Balls pick of
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: the week if we really wanted to take the Vikings.
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: But I like a different game better for that one.
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: All right, well, i'll i'll, I'll put a question mark
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: here because I don't wanna, you know, steal your thunder.
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: I'm not to steal your thunder. A reminder to everybody,
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: go rate and review the podcast. Simon and I are
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: giving away a hundred dollars for every game we win
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: this week from the five that we choose for the
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: Draft Kings pick up contest, and um, all you have
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: to do is use the phrase to pace. Simon says,
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: we love winning. So, by the way, also another plug.
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: Everything we're talking about, every stat I'm talking about, every
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: ticket count, every betting percentage. Oh that's available for free
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: in the Action Network gap. Go check it out. Let's
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: head into the late games. First one up, Chargers visiting
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: the Broncos. Justin Herbert playing like the sixth overall pick
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: just really a laser Drew Lock looking really uncomfortable in
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: the snow against the Chiefs. The Broncos are three point dogs. This,
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: my friend, is my god. I know, I I was
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: thinking Saints Bears. I was thinking nine or Seahawks. Yeah,
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: I know, I know. This is this, This is so
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: I love this game. I love that like I had
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: this had to pick the fact that the public is
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: coming down and bet this Chargers team up that I
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: get it plus three with the Broncos. I just everything
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: you said so true. Lock has not been good, even
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: that Patriots game, he was not good. And I might
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: be really misreading this one with the Broncos team, but
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: I love that It's the Chargers coming off Herbert's first
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: win at home, now traveling for a divisional game against
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: the team that just got blown out in the divisional game.
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: It just feels like this is a smart number and
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: a smart play and the right the right side is
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: gonna be the Broncos. I'm on the Broncos here, okay,
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: you know, I like I didn't have to read on it,
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: and if you do, you're the professional. Here's my only ask.
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: We're not fucking walking it back Sunday morning. Like even
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: this game right now, this is what we're doing. I'm
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: with you, man, I'm with you. Ad where you go,
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: I go together forever. Schlamizel schlamazel. Okay, that's it. Okay,
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: here we go, Broncos plus three. That, my friends, is
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: your bet, your balls of the week, bets, big ball
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: the week. That's what I'm talking about, the big balls,
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: better the week. All right, this one is a hornets nest.
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: I'm walking to a fucking hornets nest. All right, I'll
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: be my companion. Saints minus four on the road against Chicago,
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: Like game opened at plus three by the Bears plus three.
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: It's an interesting one like this is where like you
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: kind of have to bet on the Bears because it
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: you love the Bears. Here, come on, I kind of
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: do love the Bears here, like losing by fourteen, like
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: last night, by by way, losing by four, team they
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: might as well have lost by forty because they were
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: never in that game and that was garbage at the end,
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: and like this is the this is a spot for
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: the Bears like that, you know, bad bad performance on
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: Monday night. What what scares me is, I know there
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: is going to be a stat that stuck your raybon
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: are going to bring out on their podcast about you know,
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: teams being favorites on the road on Monday Night against
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: bad teams, which is what the Bears are. So it's
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: gonna scare me, but I think we go with the
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: Bears here. Yeah, this is an auto play even if
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: you lose this bet. This is when you always have
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: to play a team losing in prime time that they're good,
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: they're coming back home and they're dog at home. You
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: just we're been on the defense here. Now the Saints
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: the way they play, If Michael Thomas is in this game, yeah,
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: that makes you a little little word. Maybe we'll get
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: more value on the Bears number. So you could wait
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: to make that play. But if he's out again, I
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: can see this number coming back down to three and
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: a half three. So I'm gonna play the Bears number
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: here today at four, but I'm gonna wait to bet
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: more this weekend. All right, me too, That's exactly what
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna do. And then we're gonna put it in
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: the contest and then I'm gonna text you one Sunday
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: morning and I'm gonna be like Oh my god, I'm
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: leveraged to the hilt on the Bears. I'm just saying
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: that's what's gonna happen. But I'm glad that, like, I
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: don't have to worry about it. With the Seahawks and
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: the Niners, which is the next game up. The Seahawks
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: are three and a half point favorites in this game.
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm also glad. Look, the Seahawks for us
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: were the last game out on Sunday. We put the
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: Patriots in instead, like, and I went to bed at like,
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: I was like, I'm done my I was like, I
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: had a headache. The Browns thing was lingering. I just
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: wanted to be done with the day. And so um,
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: I was glad to not watch the end of the
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: Seahawks game. I was also glad to not have this
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: Seahawks game. Yeah, and we talked like anytime. As soon
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: as that game got moved to prime time, That's when
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: I was like, all right, I'm off the Seahawks. Because
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: Russ just keeps these games close in prime time. It's
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: really weird. Where when he's a dog, I love having
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: Rust in prime time. Whenever he's a favorite, there's always
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: something weird. Going on the end of games where they
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: almost lose. I mean, we look back now, the fact
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: of the Patriots put over thirty points up on them
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: is insane. I mean, that's like terrifying to think that
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: the Patriots scored thirty points on the road against the
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: Seahawks team. So I'm with you. I've been wrong in
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: the forty nine is a couple of times this year,
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: but I'm still up just because the games they've lost
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: they were huge favorites. But this is one of those
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: where Sea just lost on the road. I'm gonna happily
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: take them at home here, especially if the line gets
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: down to minus three, like I'm gonna take the Seahawks.
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: So this will be a close one, but I'm happy
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: to take the Seahawks. Well, look, right now, the money
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: is the bets are coming in on Seattle and the
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: money is coming in on San Francisco. It's very good
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: possibility that we will get the Seahawks and minus three
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: because all that sharp money is coming in on San Francisco.
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: And by the way, like look, San Francisco has been
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: pulling miracles out right, and no matter how many players
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: are getting injured now, Deebo Samuel is going to be
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: out for a couple of weeks, Kyle Shanahan proving what
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: a good coach he really is. Um, but I don't mind.
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: I don't mind being on the Seahawks and minus three
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: here we need I see why they're playing it too.
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: If you look at the numbers, like the the Seahawks
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: front line is just bad, like they can get moved around.
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: They don't really have anyone that d line that scares you.
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: So I think these guys who are just thinking in
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: a close game like this, like Russels keep it close
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: at San Francis, the forty nine will mainly just be
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: running the ball against this kind of front of the
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: Seahawks have set up. But I just feel way more
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: carmful taken u Seattle after their first loss at home here,
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: and I would take in the forty nine ers after
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: a big win coming across country again to play another
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: road game. So I'm with you on the Seahawks, all right.
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: Uh Cowboys Eagles, Cowboys seven and a half point dogs
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: at Philly. Oh God, be back again. You can't. I mean,
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: you're supposed to take the Cowboys here, but I cannot
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: do it. Like it's the same thing as last week
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: where it's just the Cowboys offensive line is and it
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: is just bad. I know they're getting their center back
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: this week and Martin is a great player, but I
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: just I cannot do it. I mean, the kid is
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: a is a seventh round pick or sixth round pick
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: at a gam use their quarterback now playing against the Eagles,
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: team that's coming off long rest, has a really good
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: d line. It's just there's too many, too many variables
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: for me to take um Dallas here, Like I'll take
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: the seven and a half or seven with the Eagles
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: and it's just one of those I wouldn't put in though,
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: because it scares me off for it's a divisional game.
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: But I cannot bet the Cowboys, Like I know they
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: have not covered yet this season, but I feel like
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: the books haven't adjusted to not be in deck anymore.
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: And I still think you're getting a good number. He
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: arrived this at ten, So I'm happy to take the Eagles. Wow,
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: do you want to take the Eagles in the contest?
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: I don't because I know it's gonna blow up my face.
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: I just had like this feeling in like gut right now,
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: like I want to do it so bad because it's
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: just it's just such a bad number. But I can't.
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: I can't pull the trigger. Listen, we got let's let's
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: put it on there right now there, because we got
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: a lot of maybes, so this can be in the
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: maybe list. Bucketeer is on Monday Night football tendant half
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: point favorites over the Giants on the road. This is like, look,
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: this is gonna fall into every bet the dog category
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: that there is. You're gonna have a double digit road
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: favorite on Monday Night with that favorite getting of the money, Like,
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: there's gonna be no reason to take the Buccaneers. So
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: it's either Giants or skip. Yeah, I ought to play
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: on the Giants even if you don't cover this. Like
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: everything you just said it so true. A prime time game.
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: All the money in the world has been coming on
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: the Buccaneers, um, all the teasers, everything's gonna be tied
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: into this. But I cannot put the Giants in our pickpool. Okay,
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: I've been taking them off the list because I had
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: just written them down. I'll take them off. Yeah, we
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: can't do it. It's it's too much the risk with
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: Daniel Jones, like last week, I felt comfortable with it
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: against the Eagles because I was a divisional game. That
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: number kind of inflated. Were this week this number? Fields
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: are right, I had it at ten. That's the public
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: has comed in. I got some sharps and some time
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: and a half now, um, but yeah, you have like
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: I will play. I'm gonna end up playing the Giants
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: plus two and a half just because of the primetime game.
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I can't put it in. All right, We'll listen.
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: We're we're down to it now. We're down to this
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: these this is what we are choosing from over the
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: weekend when we text each other on Saturday and Sunday,
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: We're gonna choose like the Ravens if we can get
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: them at minus three. We are definitely not walking it back,
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: definitely taking the Colts. I would say, let's take the
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: Vikings of plus seven. I don't hate it, okay, Colts
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: minus three at the Lions, Vikes plus seven at Green
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: Bay Broncos. The what was it? The big bet ball?
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: The bet bet your balls that your big balls. It's
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: the big bet the big bet balls of the week,
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: The big balls, the big balls better the week. That's
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: what big ball is better than we on the Broncos
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: plus three, that's definitely in. Colts minus three, Broncos plus three,
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: Bears plus four is definitely in. So now, then the
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: Seahawks were at minus If we can get them at
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: minus three against the Niners at home, we like that.
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: Would you like the Seahawks at minus three and a
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: half too? I don't love it because even though I
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: startling here, I hate pushing, Like I just feel more
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: comfortable with three because it's just the way the Seahawks
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: defense is. It's just scary with their their defense that
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: feel like the back door is always open. But yeah,
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: you're right, you want to put them on the side. Still, Yeah,
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: let's let's leave them out. And like, if if it
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: comes down to it, I'm probably gonna end up on
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: the Bills, I'll be honest. So like we can put
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: that in as a holding right now. But the Bills
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: minus four. There was minus four against the Pats. And
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: I also have the Eagles on the list, Eagles minus
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, right, And that's that's what we're
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: gonna text about, because like I want to see first
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: what the deals with the Eagles injuries, because we still
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: have a couple of guys coming back so I want
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: to wait and see what the deal is with a
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: couple of guys on the Egos defense before I locked
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: that one in. Alright, So for sure we are doing
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: Colts minus three in Detroit Broncos, plus three at home
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: against the Chargers, Bears plus four at home against the Saints,
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: and then like, we gotta wait and see on the Ravens,
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: on the Seahawks, on the Eagles, and on the Bills. Yeah,
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: we have a couple of options here to switch in
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: and out. So we're gonna talk Friday and Saturday. We'll
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: we'll finish the last two, all right, And everybody should
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: follow Simon Hunter in the Action Network app to get
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: the most updated picks we are thinking about, and I
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: will put those into the app on Sunday morning once
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: Simon and I have locked it in. But now it
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: is time to review our winner. Last week, we asked
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: fans to rate and review the podcast. Those who did
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: and use the winning phrase of the phrase that pays
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: in the review were eligible to win up to five
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: dollars because we're giving away a hundred dollars for every
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: game Simon and I choose correctly. This week, we went
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: three and two this winner is winning three hundred dollars.
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: We did have a ridiculous amount of reviews, so thank
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: you for that. Keep them coming, keep them coming. We
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: got to move this podcast up in the rankings. I
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: know Matt Mitchell is spending nights thinking about that. So
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: here we go the winner. Oh wait, no, first, go
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: rate and review the podcast. This week's phrase that pays
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: Simon says, we love winning. That's what it is. We
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: love winning. Simon says, we love winning. Put it in there.
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: We will randomly choose the winner to get that cash.
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: As Chris Raybund says, let's get that money and the
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: winner of last week's contest winning before were a hundred dollars.
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: Because we're giving a good comma payout to anybody. Uh,
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: because we had the browns um is from sell a
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: dragna A d r A g n A. This podcast
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: has come a long way. I used to listen to
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: Chat and Bob Scucci on my commute to the office.
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: Now I listened to Chat and Simon Hunter on my
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: commute from my bed to the kitchen. Like Simon says,
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: we worked it out. Even though life is much different now,
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: football and sports gambling is still the same. Having these
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: two guys break down the games before I make my
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: picks for the week has made all the difference. Huge
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: fan of the show. Keep up the great work. Why
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: thank you, sal And I gotta say you gotta put
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: your real name in the reviews because there was another
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: review that Matt Mitchell and I loved and we can't
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: have the winner because like, we don't know how to
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: contact the guy. So sell you gotta contact Matt Mitchell
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: Matt dot Mitchell at Action network dot com to get
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: your cash four ours. How great is that? Simon Hunter?
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: Just a man of the people. You are, Chad, That's
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: what I do. That's why everybody likes me. I said
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: it last time in the podcast. Everybody likes me? All right.
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: This has been the favorites from the Action Network. I
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: am Chad Mollman. He is Simon Hunter. Download from Apple,
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts. Until next time,
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: I Love me.