Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 13 Gambling Preview

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NFL Week 13 Gambling Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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1:25
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
1:30
Speaker 1: I I'm chatting Oman chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
1:35
Speaker 1: It is the Tuesday after Thanksgiving, folks, we are giving
1:41
Speaker 1: some fucking thanks me and my co host, professional Better
1:46
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter. How are you, buddy? What a long weekend
1:50
Speaker 1: of gamble chat. I just feel like I've never ended.
1:52
Speaker 1: Every day there's something to bet on, something I had
1:54
Speaker 1: to bet on, and I had to just keep going,
1:57
Speaker 1: just keep throwing. I mean, I feel like by Sunday
1:59
Speaker 1: morning or kaote, You're just like I can't take it anymore. Look,
2:05
Speaker 1: we gotta we got a lot to talk about. We
2:06
Speaker 1: got the full slate. We had another winning week, we
2:10
Speaker 1: eked out another winning week, a three and two weeks
2:14
Speaker 1: and it got really tricky. I made probably the worst
2:18
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving turkey I've ever made in my life. We genuinely
2:21
Speaker 1: had to say at the end of the meal, if
2:24
Speaker 1: we're being intellectually honest, everything sucked. Everything like the turkey
2:29
Speaker 1: was bad. The mashed potatoes were bad. The stuffing was shitty,
2:33
Speaker 1: Like every single thing that my wife and I made
2:36
Speaker 1: was just bad. But the Bears lines went under, and
2:40
Speaker 1: the Bears one and the Bills one. From Matt Mitchell,
2:45
Speaker 1: the Bills make me throw your hands something, throw your
2:51
Speaker 1: hand all now, the Bills, I'm making it happen. The
2:55
Speaker 1: Raiders covered like we said they would, so all in
2:59
Speaker 1: all like can't in. And then this weekend we went
3:02
Speaker 1: three and two. We had the Bills in the contest.
3:04
Speaker 1: We both love the Texans. The Texans lost. I love
3:07
Speaker 1: the Steelers. You kind of like the Steelers. The Steelers lost.
3:10
Speaker 1: I love the Broncos. You were iffy on the Broncos.
3:14
Speaker 1: You didn't want to put him in. Well, I bet
3:15
Speaker 1: him by bet him at plus three, we're getting two
3:17
Speaker 1: and a half. Yeah, And they were one. And then
3:19
Speaker 1: the other two games that you know, we probably would
3:22
Speaker 1: have only chosen one of them because we weren't going
3:24
Speaker 1: to take the Texans out were the Giants and the Dolphins,
3:27
Speaker 1: who you loved, and you had information coming in on
3:30
Speaker 1: Sunday morning that some Cyndy kids were coming in big
3:32
Speaker 1: on the Dolphins. I'm happy with the three and two
3:35
Speaker 1: weeks I bet you are chat some of some of
3:37
Speaker 1: us aren't. I had an amazing Thanksgiving. All my food
3:40
Speaker 1: was amazing, our match potatoes were on fire. Just a
3:45
Speaker 1: great Thursday, Saturday, had a great day. Bet big on
3:48
Speaker 1: Michigan again. Pull the Curran's back. I give chat info
3:51
Speaker 1: that people don't get, like he's actually getting real info
3:53
Speaker 1: from a pro that's talking to real professional groups. And
3:56
Speaker 1: in my exact quote, the Chad was the same group
3:59
Speaker 1: that owned did Michigan and bet them all the way
4:02
Speaker 1: down have come in heavy on Miami. These guys don't
4:05
Speaker 1: miss and chat us. I don't like it. I still
4:09
Speaker 1: getting over the fact that you proprood it like that
4:12
Speaker 1: pud that you proprood the Giants. Again. It's funny too,
4:16
Speaker 1: because I looked like our text on Thursday. I sent
4:18
Speaker 1: you a photo of our picks and I had the
4:20
Speaker 1: Patriots in there in Green Bay and you didn't like
4:22
Speaker 1: either of them either. So like, I'm just happy we
4:25
Speaker 1: got the three too, because it was just um that
4:28
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh game. I didn't trust it, Like I said, dude,
4:30
Speaker 1: I didn't get why the line wasn't three. It was
4:32
Speaker 1: sitting at three and a half all week and then
4:34
Speaker 1: went up to four on Sunday, just a fishy line.
4:37
Speaker 1: We got smoked by that one. The Texans was an
4:39
Speaker 1: awful read. I think it was like fourteen to three.
4:41
Speaker 1: I was feeling so good. They lost fourteen. They didn't
4:44
Speaker 1: score a single point from that point forward in the
4:46
Speaker 1: second quarter. So it hurts just because we had four
4:48
Speaker 1: and one sitting there. But every week we go three
4:51
Speaker 1: and two, that's a good week. Like the top people
4:54
Speaker 1: went one of four this week in our contest, so
4:57
Speaker 1: it stinks that we didn't take advantage of that and
4:58
Speaker 1: flipping go four in one. But it you'll never see
5:01
Speaker 1: me complain about three and two weeks. We know how
5:02
Speaker 1: hard it is to win sports betting, so and any
5:05
Speaker 1: week we go three and two, I'm happy. What's annoying
5:07
Speaker 1: is I think on the podcast on Tuesday. It's like
5:10
Speaker 1: I didn't even remember anything from the podcast on Tuesday,
5:13
Speaker 1: because I'm pretty sure we liked Miami and we like
5:16
Speaker 1: the Giants on Tuesday again, I get why you didn't
5:20
Speaker 1: like it, though, Like those aren't fun bets. To make
5:22
Speaker 1: the Giants your last memory of them, where it's just
5:25
Speaker 1: being horrible, and your last memory of Eagles is being good.
5:27
Speaker 1: You're just like, I don't really trust them. I don't
5:29
Speaker 1: really know if I want to put them in. As
5:30
Speaker 1: soon as that game started, anyone watching it was just like, oh,
5:33
Speaker 1: thank god I have the Giants. This is just one
5:34
Speaker 1: of those games where nothing's gonna go right for the Eagles.
5:37
Speaker 1: And that's this upcoming week. People are gonna hate some
5:40
Speaker 1: of my bets. I love this week so much. Some
5:43
Speaker 1: of these lines are just late season gifts from the
5:47
Speaker 1: sports books. Like again, we'll talk about it. This past month,
5:51
Speaker 1: this has been the worst month for the betting public.
5:52
Speaker 1: They've just been actually getting smashed. This has been our
5:55
Speaker 1: best month, best month that our best five are our picks.
5:58
Speaker 1: It's been a really good month for us, and I
6:00
Speaker 1: can see continuing because next this week, man, there are
6:03
Speaker 1: so many traps who are just walking right into So
6:05
Speaker 1: I'm really excited to get to this slate. Well, look,
6:07
Speaker 1: the last three weeks we're four and one, four and one,
6:10
Speaker 1: three and two, So I'll take it. We're climbing back.
6:13
Speaker 1: Let's get to the slate. For the record, you can
6:15
Speaker 1: see it in the app. I did pick the New
6:17
Speaker 1: York Giants on Sunday morning. I made the bet at
6:20
Speaker 1: twelve fifty seven. You're here. It was plus four. I
6:24
Speaker 1: made the bet, all right. Thursday night football, Dallas Cowboys
6:28
Speaker 1: at New Orleans Saints. The Cowboys are four point favorites
6:34
Speaker 1: in this game, so this this line was six. COVID
6:38
Speaker 1: news came out dropped it down to four. Four and
6:40
Speaker 1: a half. Uh, I still like it, still like the Saints.
6:44
Speaker 1: When I first saw this number, my first all was,
6:46
Speaker 1: that's just weird. They bumped it up to six. I
6:49
Speaker 1: thought that was interested, as if they knew that CD
6:51
Speaker 1: was gonna be back, and that Cooper is gonna be
6:53
Speaker 1: off the COVID list and that they have all their weapons.
6:55
Speaker 1: Then when the code news came out and it dropped,
6:58
Speaker 1: I kind of made more sense to me. And so
6:59
Speaker 1: I we're sitting here on Tuesday, we don't know who
7:02
Speaker 1: has COVID, who's out the books. Aren't gonna take that
7:04
Speaker 1: risk and leave a number so high because they already
7:06
Speaker 1: didn't like Dallas in this matchup. You could just tell
7:08
Speaker 1: by the way they hung this number they knew that
7:09
Speaker 1: public was gonna come and really heavy on Dallas and
7:11
Speaker 1: they didn't care. So the professional is coming now in
7:14
Speaker 1: the Saints. We don't even know if Camar is playing.
7:16
Speaker 1: We don't know if Ingram playing, that's that's a big
7:18
Speaker 1: deal to us. So this is one of those if
7:20
Speaker 1: you didn't get the six with the Saints, I would
7:22
Speaker 1: wait until game time to know if those guys are
7:25
Speaker 1: playing off. Kamar's in, if Ingram's in love the Saints.
7:28
Speaker 1: This is a classic ball control, good defense with the Saints.
7:31
Speaker 1: Everyone's kind of giving up on the Saints at this point.
7:33
Speaker 1: They're done with them because that Bills match up. I
7:36
Speaker 1: like it from the other way. That was just that
7:38
Speaker 1: was more about what the Bills were gonna do. And
7:40
Speaker 1: and again Trevor Simmon didn't look goo in that game.
7:42
Speaker 1: He was due for one of those. He is a
7:43
Speaker 1: third string quarterback. But when he has his weapons back,
7:46
Speaker 1: when he has Ingram back, Kamar back, this is when
7:48
Speaker 1: you want to take the Saints at home and this
7:49
Speaker 1: kind of matchup. So for right now, we'll just wait
7:52
Speaker 1: until we see what the deals with those guys. The
7:54
Speaker 1: money is coming in on the Cowboys. The bests are
7:56
Speaker 1: coming in the Cowboys. Very good chance. By the time
7:59
Speaker 1: this game gets to kick off, the line does move.
8:01
Speaker 1: I don't know if it gets back up to six, Uh,
8:04
Speaker 1: it's probably still going to float around this four and
8:06
Speaker 1: a half or five and a half. Yeah, that sounds
8:08
Speaker 1: about right. So do we like it at five and
8:13
Speaker 1: a half? Like, is the is the concept to your
8:17
Speaker 1: weight on the game. But if it's still at four
8:19
Speaker 1: and a half, take it at four and a half.
8:22
Speaker 1: I know you're gonna bet it. Yeah, I already bet
8:24
Speaker 1: about I would just waiting now at this point, is
8:25
Speaker 1: you already missed the six? So like, I don't see
8:27
Speaker 1: a drop in bull four. Like you said, the public
8:29
Speaker 1: is gonna keep coming on Dallas regardless of the COVID news.
8:32
Speaker 1: People are out on the Saints. They look at them
8:34
Speaker 1: on the bottom teams in the league like they do
8:35
Speaker 1: with the Seahawk. So these are the kind of teams
8:38
Speaker 1: that people are just giving up on. So you're gonna
8:40
Speaker 1: be able to get value of the Saints no matter what.
8:42
Speaker 1: All Right, the ever disappointing Chargers who we nailed, Like,
8:46
Speaker 1: I feel like we have a really good read on
8:48
Speaker 1: the Chargers because we've been on them when they've won
8:51
Speaker 1: and we've been against them when they've lost, specifically two
8:55
Speaker 1: big times where the Ravens and then this past week
8:58
Speaker 1: in the Broncos. Of course, we texted on Sunday, Drew
9:02
Speaker 1: Lock comes in. We know we need the Broncos. The
9:05
Speaker 1: Broncos are playing great. They are driving to go up
9:09
Speaker 1: I think seventeen nothing. At the end of the first half.
9:12
Speaker 1: Drew Lock comes in. It looks like he's trying to
9:15
Speaker 1: throw it away but ends up just being a bad
9:16
Speaker 1: pass that gets intercepted and run back for a touchdown.
9:19
Speaker 1: It wasn't run back for a touch him. The fact
9:20
Speaker 1: that this guy was trying to throw it at the ground.
9:22
Speaker 1: This how padreck lockets. You're trying to spike it at
9:24
Speaker 1: a guy's feet and he was able to throw a
9:26
Speaker 1: pick that they returned. And yeah, Herbert drove the field
9:28
Speaker 1: and scored a touch on before half. So yeah, I
9:30
Speaker 1: texted Chat, I wish we could cash at right now
9:32
Speaker 1: because I hate that we have money on Drew Lock.
9:34
Speaker 1: But thank god Teddy came back. Man, Teddy came back.
9:38
Speaker 1: Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals. Holy hell, man, how
9:44
Speaker 1: much has Herbert regressed? This is crazy? Like someone whose
9:47
Speaker 1: arguing other day, who's better Herbert or to Right now,
9:51
Speaker 1: it's hard to say to it looks pretty damn good.
9:53
Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna bear Herbert yet. But It's crazy
9:55
Speaker 1: how we went from this guy being a top five
9:57
Speaker 1: quarterback the first three or four weeks two. He is
10:00
Speaker 1: bad right now, not making good reads. He's throwing the
10:03
Speaker 1: ball too hard and he doesn't need to, like he's
10:05
Speaker 1: really a guy's five feet from He's strowing as hard
10:08
Speaker 1: as you ken. It's just hitting off the guy's chest
10:10
Speaker 1: like it's It doesn't really make sense what's going on
10:12
Speaker 1: with Herbert. Um. Maybe they'll turn around here coming at
10:16
Speaker 1: the end of the like the home stretch, But every
10:19
Speaker 1: week it looks like he's regressed a little bit. And
10:21
Speaker 1: you could say, well, he played great against that Pittsburgh team.
10:24
Speaker 1: I mean that was a lot to do with that
10:25
Speaker 1: clerk like that. Claire had a like a career day
10:27
Speaker 1: against that Pittsburgh matchup. So I will be in this game.
10:31
Speaker 1: I will be taking the charger and I'll take the
10:32
Speaker 1: three and a half. This is as high as you're
10:35
Speaker 1: gonna get on this Bengals team. They just absolutely dominated Pittsburgh.
10:39
Speaker 1: We're getting three and a half points in a matchup
10:40
Speaker 1: where like Herbert's never gonna be out of it, like
10:43
Speaker 1: he is always gonna be in at that game last
10:45
Speaker 1: week we talked about that was a divisional matchup. That
10:48
Speaker 1: defensive layout was just perfect matchup for against what Herbert
10:52
Speaker 1: wants to do. He's getting a good matchup here against
10:55
Speaker 1: this since he team so three and a half, this
10:57
Speaker 1: number has been been up to. We'll take it. It's
11:00
Speaker 1: hard not to take it when this match up. Both
11:02
Speaker 1: these teams are pretty much even. I know that you
11:05
Speaker 1: look at the record this season it says otherwise, But
11:08
Speaker 1: to me this is this is a good number. It
11:10
Speaker 1: should be three. It's three and a half just because
11:11
Speaker 1: the public is coming to have you on since so
11:13
Speaker 1: we'll take the value of Chargers. But this won't be
11:15
Speaker 1: one of my best five. Yeah, this is a classic.
11:19
Speaker 1: It's an overreaction under reaction game, right, Like you're just
11:22
Speaker 1: seeing how badly the Chargers did, you're seeing how well
11:26
Speaker 1: the Bengals did. The bookmakers know that's where all the
11:28
Speaker 1: money is gonna come come in. They can shade it
11:30
Speaker 1: a little bit higher and still know that the public
11:32
Speaker 1: is going to come in the Bengals yea. And they're
11:34
Speaker 1: happy just to get a little bit of professional money
11:36
Speaker 1: to the the Charges. That's why they moved that hook up,
11:37
Speaker 1: because they're like, you know, we'll just take some money,
11:39
Speaker 1: some guys will come in. So it's interesting that they
11:41
Speaker 1: left it there because that's how much public money has
11:44
Speaker 1: coming on since, so it will be interesting track In
11:46
Speaker 1: the summers, the week goes along in Minnesota Vikings at
11:50
Speaker 1: Detroit Lions. Vikings visiting the Lions. There are seven point
11:54
Speaker 1: favorites for fans of betting. The under that Lions bears
11:58
Speaker 1: game well is the most enjoyable, relaxing, lovely Thanksgiving Day
12:07
Speaker 1: bet you could possibly make just terrible teams who can't
12:12
Speaker 1: get out of their own way. Twice the Lions had
12:15
Speaker 1: third and thirty two. One of the plays they ran
12:18
Speaker 1: a draw penalize themselves out of field goal range. You
12:22
Speaker 1: never had to worry about these teams scoring because every
12:24
Speaker 1: single time they got close, they found a way to
12:26
Speaker 1: suck it up. The Lions are a big home dog,
12:29
Speaker 1: and they do fight, they do bite kneecaps, and the
12:32
Speaker 1: Vikings are not a team that can close anybody out.
12:37
Speaker 1: Hello Detroit, exactly, you just said that, we like, we
12:45
Speaker 1: have to take this number. The Vikings. If they win,
12:48
Speaker 1: they win by three, or they maybe even the games
12:51
Speaker 1: that they're dominating, they always let the teams back in
12:54
Speaker 1: at least two These two have already played this season.
12:57
Speaker 1: It was a close matchup that time around. Nothing change here.
13:01
Speaker 1: We have a team with the Detroit on extended rest,
13:03
Speaker 1: so they've had eleven days of prep for this game.
13:05
Speaker 1: We'll take the seven, But detroits one of these teams,
13:08
Speaker 1: like I never feel great back in it because I
13:10
Speaker 1: know awful golf is so a big injury news. We
13:13
Speaker 1: need to know more about Swift. That's that's a big
13:15
Speaker 1: deal for this Detroit team. He's kind of what makes
13:17
Speaker 1: them go. But you're giving me a touchdown against the Vikings.
13:21
Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet it regardless, and it's not one of
13:23
Speaker 1: my favorite bets I'm making this week, but I have
13:25
Speaker 1: to bet it just because of that. That's a good
13:26
Speaker 1: number to take against this Minnesota team. I'm not sure
13:34
Speaker 1: extra prep time matters for the Lions. I mean, Jared Goff,
13:37
Speaker 1: it's actually astonishing. That's how his career has fallen off
13:42
Speaker 1: a cliff. This guy was throwing dimes for the Rams
13:46
Speaker 1: a couple of years ago. Do you remember two the
13:50
Speaker 1: Chiefs and the Rams play a game in l A
13:52
Speaker 1: that was supposed to be in Mexico City. They had
13:54
Speaker 1: to move it the game, it scored like a hundred
13:58
Speaker 1: and twenty points. It was used to be sort of
14:01
Speaker 1: the dawn of an age of these two amazing quarterbacks,
14:05
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes Jared Goff, this high flying offense for both
14:09
Speaker 1: young genius versus old veteran genius. Patrick Mahomes took off.
14:15
Speaker 1: Jared Goff basically cratered in the Super Bowl and hasn't
14:18
Speaker 1: been heard from since. They gave him a hundred million
14:20
Speaker 1: dollar contract and then the second he signed it, it's
14:23
Speaker 1: like they were trying to get rid of him. Was
14:25
Speaker 1: so lucky My super Bowl is Nick Foles. Like I
14:28
Speaker 1: always look at it like Jimmy g could have won
14:30
Speaker 1: a Super Bowl. Jimmy g Jimmy Garoppolo, he didn't, thank god.
14:34
Speaker 1: Jared Goff could have won a Super Bowl, thank God
14:35
Speaker 1: he didn't. So it's it's one of those I feel
14:37
Speaker 1: so lucky because we have the weird egg in there.
14:39
Speaker 1: Like every you look back on the history of the
14:41
Speaker 1: Super Bowl last ten years, every quarterback kind of makes
14:43
Speaker 1: sense to win it, except Nick Foles. So you'll never
14:46
Speaker 1: hear me complain about terrible quarterbacks. It's just amazing New
14:50
Speaker 1: York Giants at Miami Dolphins, The New York Football Giants
14:56
Speaker 1: visiting the resurgent Miami Dolphins last week, and I remember,
15:00
Speaker 1: bring this now, I said, two is looking better every
15:03
Speaker 1: single week and not just thinking dunk better, but accurate better.
15:07
Speaker 1: And what does he do this past week? One Giants
15:11
Speaker 1: on the road, three point dogs. This approsed Joe's right now,
15:14
Speaker 1: money coming in on the Giants, probably coming in on
15:18
Speaker 1: the Dolphins. I man, should this be our foxhole? Let's
15:24
Speaker 1: clide down into the fox hole? Are you fox holing
15:30
Speaker 1: me right now? I am? I love the Giants so
15:32
Speaker 1: much in this part. Oh my god, explain it to me.
15:35
Speaker 1: We got a road team. They love to cover on
15:38
Speaker 1: the road. Danny Danny Dimes loves go on the road.
15:40
Speaker 1: This number I love the one was at three and
15:42
Speaker 1: a half. Sadly, like you just said, the professionals have
15:44
Speaker 1: betted down to three. Still love it at that number.
15:46
Speaker 1: That's a key number. But we're looking at the matchup
15:48
Speaker 1: here that you can look at the total. It's very low.
15:51
Speaker 1: I think the bookmakers you're telling you these are two
15:54
Speaker 1: very good defenses. Two has been better him and Waddle
15:57
Speaker 1: that connection has been pretty outstanding. But coming to this matchup,
16:01
Speaker 1: I like the shutdown side of this Giants team. We
16:04
Speaker 1: saw what they did against this Egos team. They're they're
16:06
Speaker 1: able to get pressure of their front four and let
16:09
Speaker 1: their cornerbacks kind of shut down the receiver. So I
16:11
Speaker 1: know that the Giants got a little lucky. They probably
16:13
Speaker 1: should have lost the Eagles. That two Eagles had to
16:15
Speaker 1: drop touchdowns in the final couple of sexs of the game.
16:18
Speaker 1: It doesn't matter, like this number doesn't really reflect that.
16:20
Speaker 1: It's still the public still gonna be coming in and
16:22
Speaker 1: have you on Miami. So hopefully it gets back up
16:24
Speaker 1: at three and a half. But I love it at three.
16:27
Speaker 1: So I love that this is one of our fox
16:29
Speaker 1: fell best just because not a lot of people are
16:31
Speaker 1: gonna better just like last week the Giants. People just
16:33
Speaker 1: are skeptical of this team and Daniel Jones, We're going
16:36
Speaker 1: to the Fox Hill. We are going to the Fox
16:38
Speaker 1: Folle with Danny Dimes and the New York Football Giants.
16:41
Speaker 1: I don't mind it. As the guy who bet the
16:43
Speaker 1: Giants plus four, I'm so smart. I was way ahead
16:45
Speaker 1: of it better at twelve seven on Sunday afternoon. Let's
16:49
Speaker 1: hear it for Danny Dimes. I don't mind it at all.
16:59
Speaker 1: It's interesting one I have fallen a little bit in
17:02
Speaker 1: love with this Miami team. And it's also interesting you
17:05
Speaker 1: have two teams that covered this past week. That's true.
17:07
Speaker 1: I look at the Miami being a little over value
17:09
Speaker 1: right now. That was that game is more about camp
17:11
Speaker 1: right Like cam just had an absolute meltdown, kept giving
17:14
Speaker 1: them short fields and you know they took advantage of it.
17:17
Speaker 1: So I just don't see the same thing playing out
17:19
Speaker 1: here at the Giants. That game was brutal because that
17:22
Speaker 1: Panthers game, the block punt and then consistent interceptions. They
17:26
Speaker 1: just kept giving them giving away points. And that was
17:28
Speaker 1: a gift. I told you Miami was a gift. You
17:30
Speaker 1: don't want to hear it. I hate myself. Tampa Bay
17:34
Speaker 1: Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons ten and a half Buccaneers ten
17:40
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites. Why why is my first
17:43
Speaker 1: instinct on this to bet the Falcons. You have to
17:46
Speaker 1: go ahead and bet them, bet the money line right now?
17:48
Speaker 1: I hate it. We have to do it though, just
17:51
Speaker 1: absolutely gross. Like again, people are gonna hate our bets
17:53
Speaker 1: this week. This is one of these that's like this
17:55
Speaker 1: will probably one of our five come come Sunday, like
17:59
Speaker 1: divisional match up, That was a huge win for this
18:02
Speaker 1: Buckaneers team. We talked about they haven't been good on
18:04
Speaker 1: the road this year. They hadn't covered. That was their
18:06
Speaker 1: first cover of the year on the road. So we're
18:09
Speaker 1: we're looking at a team that just played a really hard,
18:13
Speaker 1: tough game against the Colts, now on the road again
18:15
Speaker 1: playing against an Atlanta team that. Yeah, it's not ideal.
18:18
Speaker 1: They're coming off a big win and cover, but they're
18:21
Speaker 1: getting healthy, they're getting pieces back. Uh you know that.
18:24
Speaker 1: The team's just different with Cordell Patterson. So Cordell Parterson's
18:27
Speaker 1: back playing against a banged up secondary of this Bucks team,
18:30
Speaker 1: Like we saw Carson Wentz had a day against that team.
18:34
Speaker 1: Then Carson Wentz had his five turnovers, which is what
18:36
Speaker 1: he likes to do. But I don't see Matt Ryan
18:38
Speaker 1: having the same mistakes. Um, something still doesn't look right
18:42
Speaker 1: with Brady. Like watching that game last week, he he
18:45
Speaker 1: didn't make the plays that mattered down the stretch there.
18:47
Speaker 1: But something just seems a little off with him. So
18:50
Speaker 1: we're getting more than ten points ten and a half,
18:52
Speaker 1: it's eleven and a a half at some books. Still sure,
18:55
Speaker 1: so shop around for the snumber. But I love it,
18:58
Speaker 1: like I love Atlanta in this pos This is way
19:00
Speaker 1: too many points in the divisional matchup. It's so true
19:05
Speaker 1: gross though, like we're not gonna have fun betting this.
19:07
Speaker 1: We have to do it. Listen. Also, we promised the
19:11
Speaker 1: people we'd be in Atlanta Falcons podcast. That's true, so
19:15
Speaker 1: we can't get turn our backs. Now we have to
19:18
Speaker 1: commit to that we haven't. By the way, is this
19:21
Speaker 1: a signmon says no, I got another one. That's just gross.
19:24
Speaker 1: You're gonna love You've got a sign and says in
19:27
Speaker 1: mind though, I probably there for the Giants, but I
19:31
Speaker 1: hate that I moved all three and a half. I
19:33
Speaker 1: love the three and a half, all right, I mean
19:35
Speaker 1: there's so many games we already like the Chargers plus
19:38
Speaker 1: three and a half, the Lions plus seven. Um, I
19:42
Speaker 1: don't think either of those are a final five. Agree
19:45
Speaker 1: on the Giants and the Falcons. That is a I'm
19:48
Speaker 1: making a note here final five just so I can
19:50
Speaker 1: remind myself when we talk on Sunday morning, UM, that
19:56
Speaker 1: I have a list of like what we talked about
19:59
Speaker 1: on Tuesday, so I don't get Sunday mornings. It's hard
20:02
Speaker 1: to figure it out because, like we just finished the show,
20:05
Speaker 1: convinced me at Action Network HQ eleven a m Eastern
20:09
Speaker 1: and we're trying to make decisions and we're both pressed
20:12
Speaker 1: for time, and we feel like we've narrowed it down
20:16
Speaker 1: and then we go Maybe we just go too fast
20:18
Speaker 1: for me. I mean, we're killing it the past week.
20:20
Speaker 1: We're eleven and three the past week, but past four
20:23
Speaker 1: the three weeks. But um, so I gotta make better notes. Yeah,
20:27
Speaker 1: I mean we could just like be like, all right,
20:29
Speaker 1: I trust this guy. He's worked eight hours this week
20:31
Speaker 1: while I celebrated Thanksgiving all week with my inn laws.
20:34
Speaker 1: He probably knows I should take Miami the Giants here.
20:37
Speaker 1: But again, you wanted Pittsburgh. I wasn't gonna fight you
20:39
Speaker 1: on it because I bet on Pittsburgh. But I just
20:41
Speaker 1: said to you, no pros are bet in this game.
20:43
Speaker 1: Like I've heard no professional groups coming on Pittsburgh. That's
20:45
Speaker 1: what made me so nervous. But no regrets. As soon
20:48
Speaker 1: as they went down fourteen that me and you both
20:50
Speaker 1: knew we were cooked. Like Roethlisberger, he just can't come
20:53
Speaker 1: back unless there's a block punt and like a pick
20:55
Speaker 1: by the other guy. So it's, uh, we're gonna talk
20:57
Speaker 1: about Pittsburgh this week. We we we we kind of
21:00
Speaker 1: messed up there. We we bought high on Pittsburgh and
21:03
Speaker 1: we should have been selling. You did say no professional
21:06
Speaker 1: groups have talked about Pittsburgh. You absolutely said that. Because
21:09
Speaker 1: I asked, I didn't get it. I was like, you
21:11
Speaker 1: guys don't like Pittsburgh, and it's like, no, fuck Pittsburgh.
21:13
Speaker 1: I was like, all right, I own it. I made
21:17
Speaker 1: a mistake. It cost us a game. That's all I
21:19
Speaker 1: can say. We gotta move on. So I tell my kids,
21:22
Speaker 1: you make the mistake, own it, apologize. It's easy to do.
21:26
Speaker 1: No one's gonna think less of you. Just move on.
21:29
Speaker 1: Indianapolis cults at Houston, Texans cults are eight and a
21:35
Speaker 1: half point favorites on the road of the Texas God
21:38
Speaker 1: damn it, and people are gonna see a pattern. This
21:41
Speaker 1: is this week's money line around Robin is gonna be
21:43
Speaker 1: so ugly. I love it, and this is gonna be
21:45
Speaker 1: one of those teams. Houston, Baby, we one hundred have
21:49
Speaker 1: to take Houston. Yeah, you love this number like it
21:52
Speaker 1: was up in nine nine and a half. The pros
21:53
Speaker 1: have already bett it down to eight eight and a half.
21:55
Speaker 1: At certain books. We love this number. We will be
21:58
Speaker 1: on Houston. This is they let us down last week,
22:01
Speaker 1: No doubt that that hurt bad. But you gotta move on,
22:04
Speaker 1: you gotta keep pushing forward. This is just too high
22:06
Speaker 1: of a number for a divisional matchup where Carson went
22:09
Speaker 1: to start and turn back into a pumpkin a little bit,
22:11
Speaker 1: starting to have his turnovers, which we know Carson is
22:13
Speaker 1: gonna do. Like he had a nice run there. I
22:15
Speaker 1: think he was like fourteen touchdowns to interceptions. He's had
22:18
Speaker 1: a bunch of picks these last couple of weeks. So
22:20
Speaker 1: we'll take this Houston team in a really good, tough
22:23
Speaker 1: divisional matchup. We knew that was going to happen, we did,
22:28
Speaker 1: But I mean, like again, that's why I felt so
22:31
Speaker 1: bad for Sean, Like Sean West move feeling so good.
22:33
Speaker 1: He's up ten with the Colts. They had the ball
22:36
Speaker 1: and he turns it over and the Bucks put up
22:38
Speaker 1: what was it, seventeen straight points? Like that was that
22:42
Speaker 1: that no cover? The Bears no cover And I had
22:45
Speaker 1: the Browns no cover, Like I had the Browns three
22:47
Speaker 1: and a half. That was really like like such gut
22:49
Speaker 1: punches like last night I had it like the under
22:51
Speaker 1: I didn't want to put it out because I was
22:52
Speaker 1: just like, I'm so done with this week. I just
22:55
Speaker 1: want to move on. It was that was a rough
22:57
Speaker 1: week for a lot of people that had a lot
22:58
Speaker 1: of back to words. Go. Yeah, there were a lot lot. Look,
23:03
Speaker 1: you're talking about Sean Croner, who we do the show,
23:05
Speaker 1: convinced me with and his best bet on Sunday was
23:08
Speaker 1: the Colts plus three and a half um, which still
23:12
Speaker 1: despite everything, even though and he's like and I love
23:14
Speaker 1: him on the money line too, and he was right
23:17
Speaker 1: until Carson Wentz started losing his grip, so to speak.
23:22
Speaker 1: Even in the end, there was a chance until Leonard
23:24
Speaker 1: Fournette just decided to close it out with the touchdown
23:26
Speaker 1: which seven left. We talked about we loved the under
23:29
Speaker 1: last week for the Panthers in Miami, and there were
23:32
Speaker 1: a couple sort of plays at the end of the
23:34
Speaker 1: half that ruined it. We loved the under for the
23:37
Speaker 1: Paths and the Titans, at least I did. You didn't,
23:40
Speaker 1: And they scored thirteen points in the final minute of
23:43
Speaker 1: the first half. Yeah, I'm like, two turnovers in a draw,
23:50
Speaker 1: Like it wasn't even it was just Fluke Place. It
23:52
Speaker 1: was so much ugliness. Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears. The
23:58
Speaker 1: Flying Cardinals fully healthy at the Bears minus seven and
24:04
Speaker 1: a half. We like the fade teams off by weeks here.
24:07
Speaker 1: It's been good to us all season. We would continue
24:09
Speaker 1: that trend. People, seven and a half Bears team at home.
24:13
Speaker 1: Take this number. I know how great the Cardinals are.
24:16
Speaker 1: We're probably walking right into a sharp trap. Don't care.
24:19
Speaker 1: You have to take the Bears at home against the
24:22
Speaker 1: Cardinals team that we don't know where getting from Kyler.
24:24
Speaker 1: Kyler is coming back off an injury that's kept him
24:26
Speaker 1: out for multiple weeks at this point, so I'm expecting
24:29
Speaker 1: them to be rusty. I expect them not to play
24:31
Speaker 1: as well outside in the cold, frigid air of Chicago.
24:36
Speaker 1: So seven and a half home team the Bears, we
24:39
Speaker 1: have to take. It doesn't really matter either if it's
24:40
Speaker 1: any Dalton, him and Justin Field aren't that different. If anything,
24:43
Speaker 1: any doone is a little better. But we like the
24:45
Speaker 1: upside of Field. It's like at any moment he could
24:47
Speaker 1: take off for a ninety yard touchdown run. So it
24:49
Speaker 1: doesn't matter to us. Use a quarterback for the Bears.
24:51
Speaker 1: You just take this number. This doesn't feel like a
24:53
Speaker 1: top five to me. No, no, no, we have we
24:57
Speaker 1: have uglier games. I like better. You know we're talking
24:59
Speaker 1: about the Bears and it being frigid. The other day
25:01
Speaker 1: I was talking to my buddy Matt, who I mentioned
25:03
Speaker 1: often on the show, and we were discussing, as you
25:06
Speaker 1: and I, you, me and Matt Mitchell were before the podcast,
25:10
Speaker 1: just how beautiful that Ohio State Michigan game looked. The imagery,
25:14
Speaker 1: the shots, especially pre game, the snow falling the players
25:18
Speaker 1: in the tunnel. You couldn't help it just be excited
25:21
Speaker 1: as a fan, as a sports fan to watch that.
25:24
Speaker 1: And Matt and I were like, as Bears fans, when's
25:26
Speaker 1: the last time we had that experience? And we had
25:29
Speaker 1: to go back to when we were in the stands
25:31
Speaker 1: during the season, and uh, the Bears trouned. I think
25:37
Speaker 1: it was the Giants in the opening round of the playoffs,
25:40
Speaker 1: Sean Landetta Whift on a punt. We happened to be
25:42
Speaker 1: sitting right there. That's how far back we have to go.
25:45
Speaker 1: I was gonna say the Double Doink game for an
25:47
Speaker 1: Eagles per sective was beautiful, like it was snowing there
25:49
Speaker 1: in Chicago. It was just really pretty seen nighttime game
25:53
Speaker 1: that your kicker missed the kick. I don't like you
25:57
Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles, at knew you Jets. Speaking of the Eagles,
26:02
Speaker 1: they lost this past weekend and now they're visiting the
26:05
Speaker 1: Jets as nearly a touchdown favorite. I don't know how
26:08
Speaker 1: the Jets beat the Texas last week. I really don't.
26:11
Speaker 1: I just don't know what happened. Chet, do you believe
26:12
Speaker 1: in the butterfly effecture? Okay, so the Eagles they passed
26:16
Speaker 1: on the guy named Justin Justin Jefferson, right, and they
26:19
Speaker 1: took a guy named Reagor this past week had to
26:22
Speaker 1: drop touchdowns in the end zone for us to win
26:24
Speaker 1: a game. And the reason we drafted Davante Smith was
26:27
Speaker 1: because we missed and didn't take Justin Jefferson, because we
26:30
Speaker 1: didn't take DK Metcalf. Because of that, Michael Parsons is
26:33
Speaker 1: now on the Cowboys, who might be the best defensive
26:36
Speaker 1: player as a rookie in the league. A lot a
26:39
Speaker 1: lot of trickle down from that little mistake that the
26:41
Speaker 1: Eagles made. Butterfly effect, and here we are once again
26:44
Speaker 1: the butterfly fact. This Eagles matchup might be Minshew, did
26:48
Speaker 1: you see that it might be Minshew. Hurts might be
26:49
Speaker 1: out for this game. So I don't know what to
26:51
Speaker 1: do here. If it's Minshew, I don't I don't know.
26:53
Speaker 1: I guess I take the Jets because you know, we
26:56
Speaker 1: know we're getting from them, But I so badly want
26:59
Speaker 1: to take the US here, like this Jets team they
27:02
Speaker 1: are good, Like that was more about the Texans beating
27:05
Speaker 1: themselves and then the Jets really winning that game. But
27:08
Speaker 1: so that's a lot of points. Take a minus seven
27:11
Speaker 1: with Minshew. I don't know. So i'mna have to wait
27:13
Speaker 1: and see who the quarterback is for the It was
27:15
Speaker 1: probably really better on this game. Yeah, I think that's right.
27:17
Speaker 1: That's an interesting way to look at it. With Justin Jefferson,
27:20
Speaker 1: it really was a miss, I mean, just a complete
27:23
Speaker 1: But who do they draft instead? That's what I'm saying, Reagor,
27:25
Speaker 1: they took that kid a two touchdown drops. They didn't
27:28
Speaker 1: take him before Justin Jefferson one pick before. I'm telling
27:31
Speaker 1: an Eagles fans life, you think you got a bad
27:32
Speaker 1: as a Bears fan, Chad, you don't want to Some
27:34
Speaker 1: of our craft is ridiculous. Wow, that is a serious miss,
27:38
Speaker 1: horrible miss. And then they have video footage of the
27:41
Speaker 1: Vikings GMS like laughing at us, like celebrating after we
27:43
Speaker 1: took Reagor and they moved up to take Jefferson. Wow. No,
27:48
Speaker 1: it's bad. No, it's it's really bad. And now a
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Speaker 1: in West Virginia. Let's get back to the show, Jacksonville
29:49
Speaker 1: Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams at the Jaguars who have
29:54
Speaker 1: our ten point Dogs on the road. This is like
29:57
Speaker 1: a kind of a pass for me. It will be
30:01
Speaker 1: all over the Jags. Over the Jags money sign. Yeah,
30:04
Speaker 1: the Rams. We don't know what's wrong with Stafford. Stafford
30:06
Speaker 1: can't hit open guys two feet in front of them.
30:08
Speaker 1: They put out all these elements of all of his
30:10
Speaker 1: injuries before the game. We kind of knew about it
30:12
Speaker 1: going in. That's why I love Green Bay. Going into
30:14
Speaker 1: that matchup, I was just like, you're gonna banged up
30:16
Speaker 1: Stafford outdoors. This guy's an indoor quarterback man. Something's wrong
30:21
Speaker 1: with this Rams team. So if we're going just fading
30:24
Speaker 1: all the negativity, everything, all the bad juju that's going
30:27
Speaker 1: on right now, I love the Jags. The only worry
30:30
Speaker 1: about right now the Jaguars is Urban Meyer might have
30:32
Speaker 1: a foot up the door. Like by the time this heirs,
30:34
Speaker 1: he could already be a Notre Dame as a head coach.
30:36
Speaker 1: So that's a little scary um betting the Jaguars this week.
30:39
Speaker 1: But I'm betting them like you're you're giving me way
30:42
Speaker 1: too many points with a team that they're bad. No doubt,
30:46
Speaker 1: the Jaguars are bad, but their defense isn't terrible like
30:49
Speaker 1: their defense kind of keeps them in games. So Stafford's
30:52
Speaker 1: really slacking right now. I could get the kind of
30:54
Speaker 1: the same matchup where the Bills just kind of gave
30:56
Speaker 1: that game to the Jaguars, and we could get the
30:58
Speaker 1: same thing from Stafford here. Yeah, take take the Jaguars,
31:01
Speaker 1: you take the points, and I'll probably have their money
31:03
Speaker 1: line a couple of runners. Money you're on Brown Robbins.
31:06
Speaker 1: Oh my god, you're gonna have a Texans, Falcons, Jaguars,
31:13
Speaker 1: the Bears. You're disgusting. Yeah, it's it's really gross. I
31:19
Speaker 1: love this week. How much money do you think you'll
31:23
Speaker 1: end up putting into money line around Robins? I mean
31:26
Speaker 1: it depends on the week. I would say that MAXI
31:28
Speaker 1: amounts like twenty k, Like I'll do a bunch of
31:30
Speaker 1: thousand dollar ones, but looking at this week, I'll probably
31:33
Speaker 1: be a little lower because these odds are so high,
31:35
Speaker 1: Like all I need is to hit maybe three combos
31:37
Speaker 1: and you're getting your money back and then some um.
31:40
Speaker 1: So that's why I love these kind of weeks where
31:41
Speaker 1: it's huge dogs. Like last week went three and two
31:44
Speaker 1: and I barely made a profit just because all those
31:46
Speaker 1: home dogs are so short. It was just it was
31:48
Speaker 1: a tough week for that. It must be nice to
31:50
Speaker 1: make a profit. Yeah, it's been a good month. Washington
31:54
Speaker 1: football team at Las Vegas Raiders. Washington football team. Big
31:59
Speaker 1: win last night, big big win for the fighting Taylor Hinakys.
32:04
Speaker 1: There's a lot to like about this team. I like
32:06
Speaker 1: him as a quarterback. He's fun to watch. They are
32:08
Speaker 1: on the road visiting the Raiders plus two and a half.
32:12
Speaker 1: I mean, the Raiders look good against the Cowboys. Did
32:15
Speaker 1: this weird line makes me want to take the football
32:17
Speaker 1: team right? I don't really get why this line is
32:20
Speaker 1: not three. I know the money has been coming in
32:22
Speaker 1: heavy on Vegas at minus two. It feels that the
32:25
Speaker 1: same thing I like lap in last week with me
32:26
Speaker 1: and the Texans. Like I see a line, Oh, they're
32:29
Speaker 1: giving me under a field goal for a home team here.
32:32
Speaker 1: It seems like a trap. I feel like we should
32:33
Speaker 1: probably either stay away you you take Washington here. It
32:37
Speaker 1: does feel like a trap. Like I immediately look at
32:39
Speaker 1: this and think, of course, I'm taking the Raiders as
32:41
Speaker 1: less than a field goal. What are the bookmakers trying
32:44
Speaker 1: to tell me her? That's what I'm saying. I think
32:47
Speaker 1: they're trying to second sent home teams have just not
32:49
Speaker 1: been good this year. Um, last week was a good
32:52
Speaker 1: week for ROM teams. I pretty much every bet I
32:53
Speaker 1: made was a home team. Uh. I don't know this,
32:57
Speaker 1: This line stinks. That's why I probably would just pass Cler.
33:00
Speaker 1: I would take Washington. I don't don't trust what the
33:02
Speaker 1: bookmakers are doing it. I know they're gonna get a
33:04
Speaker 1: ton of Vegas money. At this point, I hate this game. Yeah,
33:08
Speaker 1: we can pass. Cut to Sunday morning. We're all in
33:12
Speaker 1: on the Raiders. No chance. San Francisco forty Niners at
33:17
Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks. This is getting interesting now, the forty Niners
33:21
Speaker 1: visiting the Seahawks. Forty Niners are definitely favorites. There's a
33:25
Speaker 1: wide disparity in numbers, anywhere from two to three and
33:28
Speaker 1: a half. But you know, is this one of those
33:31
Speaker 1: games where Kyle Shanahan has historically not been that great
33:36
Speaker 1: as a favorite on the road. The Seahawks are clearly
33:39
Speaker 1: a dumpster fire right now. But is there an over
33:42
Speaker 1: correction based on the fact of what we saw last
33:45
Speaker 1: night that there's going to be value on the Seahawks?
33:49
Speaker 1: Is three and a half point home dogs right now?
33:52
Speaker 1: Every week I keep saying the same any thing to you.
33:54
Speaker 1: I don't trust Russ and I think he came back
33:56
Speaker 1: too soon from the surgery. I've just been betting against
33:59
Speaker 1: him and watch and him miss the guys like wide
34:01
Speaker 1: open right in front of him, and he just does
34:03
Speaker 1: not look like the same person. Everything looks off with him.
34:06
Speaker 1: Keep fading. I know it's gonna be a big public
34:07
Speaker 1: bet with the forty niners, but not not putting another
34:10
Speaker 1: dime on the Seahawks until it's Geno Smith. I just
34:12
Speaker 1: don't trust Ross and maybe he will get healthy in
34:15
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks, but he rushed back. He's doing
34:18
Speaker 1: too much. He's been hitting it too. I saw him
34:20
Speaker 1: like trying to shake it out last night after you
34:22
Speaker 1: hit a guy's helmet with it. Just do not like it.
34:24
Speaker 1: It feels like like what you just said that the
34:26
Speaker 1: Seahawks right now, they're probably the worst, one of the
34:28
Speaker 1: worst team's NFC. So not not putting any money. Usually
34:31
Speaker 1: I would love this position for the Seahawks. I'd be
34:33
Speaker 1: all in on it. But no, staying away. We haven't
34:37
Speaker 1: gotten a Simon says, yeah, it's coming baby, all right,
34:39
Speaker 1: Well we only got three games left. Yeah, it's probably
34:42
Speaker 1: one of those though. Don't give me your attitude. I
34:44
Speaker 1: know that was just that was that you just stopped me. There.
34:49
Speaker 1: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers Ravens again, there's a disparity here.
34:55
Speaker 1: Two and a half to three and a half. Oh god, yeah, no,
34:59
Speaker 1: I'm in, says Pittsburgh. No love it. Why explain it
35:14
Speaker 1: to me? What are you hearing? Why would I do
35:17
Speaker 1: this because I explained you last week that we had to.
35:21
Speaker 1: We're supposed to stay away. Wait a week. This is
35:23
Speaker 1: when you take Pittsburgh. We have the Ravens off for
35:26
Speaker 1: primetime win. Everyone's out on Pittsburgh without realizing this is
35:31
Speaker 1: just a classic divisional matchup. Whoever wins this game is
35:34
Speaker 1: gonna win by three. The bookmakers are giving us a
35:36
Speaker 1: gift at three and a half. This is such a
35:39
Speaker 1: pro number. The public's in a coming so heavy on
35:41
Speaker 1: the Ravens as well. I love this game so much
35:44
Speaker 1: so if your books to us three and a half,
35:46
Speaker 1: maybe you're lucky. You can find a four out there,
35:48
Speaker 1: grab it, grab it right now. But just wait this
35:51
Speaker 1: number we'll keep getting bet up. We got like COVID
35:53
Speaker 1: stuff going on. I think what might have got put
35:55
Speaker 1: on the COVID list. Just just wait, You're gonna get
35:58
Speaker 1: a good number of this Pittsburgh team. I love this matchup.
36:01
Speaker 1: It's gross, dude, but I'm telling you this is you
36:03
Speaker 1: have to make these kind of bets in December, Like
36:05
Speaker 1: this is the bookmakers know exactly what they're doing laying
36:09
Speaker 1: this trap. Look look at you. You're squaming. You don't
36:11
Speaker 1: that's how bad. You don't want to bet it like
36:13
Speaker 1: they want all. It's like, that's how you have to
36:16
Speaker 1: bet it. Man, I'm telling you, it's such a good number.
36:18
Speaker 1: As we speak, I see, uh the Action Network odds
36:23
Speaker 1: board lighting up and everyone has access to this Action
36:25
Speaker 1: Network dot com. Just go to the public betting page.
36:29
Speaker 1: Bets coming in on the Steelers as we speak. Yeah,
36:34
Speaker 1: it's I mean, I would say, three different guys I
36:37
Speaker 1: talked to this morning, I'll bet that on Monday and
36:39
Speaker 1: Monday night. Wow. Yeah, the pros. The pros are gonna
36:43
Speaker 1: love this matchup. The Ravens are probably one of the
36:46
Speaker 1: more fraudulent number one seeds we've ever had. Like them,
36:49
Speaker 1: And like when we said that about Tennessee, we took
36:51
Speaker 1: a lot of shift for that. Tennessee has lost what
36:53
Speaker 1: two games in a row now the Ravens, it's gonna
36:55
Speaker 1: catch up to them, like they they can't keep getting
36:58
Speaker 1: away with it. It's crazy like game. I think it
37:01
Speaker 1: was the first time in FL history a quarterback at
37:03
Speaker 1: four picks and a team like one by whatever more
37:06
Speaker 1: than a field goal. So something to keep in the
37:09
Speaker 1: back of your mind. Right Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs.
37:14
Speaker 1: We love the Broncos their ten point underdogs at the Chiefs.
37:18
Speaker 1: Right now, Denver Broncos, Oh my god, I hate this one.
37:23
Speaker 1: It's like the meeting of two perfect storms. Teddy Bridgewater
37:26
Speaker 1: underdog on the road playing against Andy re team off
37:30
Speaker 1: of bye week. What the hell do we do here?
37:32
Speaker 1: It's so hard. I will tell you right now that
37:34
Speaker 1: there's a little bit of a reversal going on here.
37:36
Speaker 1: The Broncos are getting the majority of the bets. Yeah,
37:39
Speaker 1: but the money is coming in on the Chiefs. Wow,
37:43
Speaker 1: that's actually shocking. So yeah, the pros are looking the
37:45
Speaker 1: same way as me. It's Andy Reid off a bye week, Like,
37:48
Speaker 1: I hate betting against him off a bye It's it's
37:50
Speaker 1: the worst. So I'm gonna be taking Teddy. You're giving
37:54
Speaker 1: me ten points, I'll walk right into this trap. I
37:57
Speaker 1: can't not do it. Too many points in divisional map
38:00
Speaker 1: chop I I'm an idiot, and this feels like the
38:03
Speaker 1: bookmakers are telling us to take the cheeps, but I
38:05
Speaker 1: cannot do it. That's that's crazy for them to get
38:08
Speaker 1: that many points, Like they only scored nineteen points against
38:11
Speaker 1: a Dallas defense that gave up like thirty five, six,
38:14
Speaker 1: thirty six points or thirty three points to Laraders. So
38:17
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't really understand um all the
38:20
Speaker 1: cheap respect here. Maybe Teddy's more hurt than we know.
38:23
Speaker 1: That could be part of the reason this line so big,
38:25
Speaker 1: but we don't know that as we're sitting here on Tuesday.
38:28
Speaker 1: So to me, you're getting a great number with Teddy.
38:30
Speaker 1: I'll be taking this ten points. Yeah. Defense, it's just
38:34
Speaker 1: they're solid. They've been solid all year. New England Patriots
38:45
Speaker 1: at Buffalo Bills. The Patriots visiting Matt Mitchell's Bills. The
38:54
Speaker 1: Patriots are three point dogs right now. Would you make
38:58
Speaker 1: the Patriots favorite at home against the Chiefs playoffs a
39:02
Speaker 1: regular season? Regular season yeah, but not the class No
39:07
Speaker 1: playoffs is different. It's just a different game. I might
39:10
Speaker 1: be giving shipped to the Chiefs right now. But we've
39:12
Speaker 1: seen them doing multiple years. The only thing that's ever
39:15
Speaker 1: stopped the Chiefs is Tom Brady, Like you beat them
39:18
Speaker 1: the FC Championship Game and beat them the Super Bowl.
39:20
Speaker 1: So love, love, love the Chiefs and the playoffs. But
39:23
Speaker 1: there's no denying right now that Patriots are one of
39:25
Speaker 1: the hottest teams on football. The Patriots are visiting the Bills,
39:28
Speaker 1: they're underdogs. A lot of people would say, clearly, this
39:32
Speaker 1: is going to be the battle for the a f
39:34
Speaker 1: C East. Couldn't be more down the road. What are
39:37
Speaker 1: we looking at here? And Mitch will play that Bills music. Yeah,
39:42
Speaker 1: happy now happen now, making it happy now? Spirit, a
39:50
Speaker 1: lot of spirit, spirit happen now. We're all in on
39:56
Speaker 1: the Bills. You love the Bills here? What a gift?
39:59
Speaker 1: Yeah my us three? What a treat from the sports books?
40:02
Speaker 1: People forget okay, it's it's all hype week right now
40:04
Speaker 1: from Mac Jones. Go on your phones right now you're
40:07
Speaker 1: sitting here, people, and go look at who the Patriots
40:09
Speaker 1: have beaten during this historical run. They're on No, they're
40:13
Speaker 1: they're they're not beating good teams. And the Bills. I
40:17
Speaker 1: know they've had their issues this year. Josh Allen hasn't
40:20
Speaker 1: really looked like what we talked about he did last year,
40:22
Speaker 1: and we talked about it's his footwork. He's not thrown
40:24
Speaker 1: on bounce. He's not setting his feet undneath him when
40:27
Speaker 1: he's throwing. That's why he's throwing so many interceptions. God,
40:30
Speaker 1: I love this matchup so much. This is the best
40:33
Speaker 1: time to take the Bills. Like the Patriots. We've been
40:36
Speaker 1: trying to catch them on this run. They're on here
40:38
Speaker 1: like last week. I really had to convince you to
40:40
Speaker 1: take them. I understand why you were like, no, this
40:42
Speaker 1: is this is why you take Tennessee. This is so
40:44
Speaker 1: blah blah blah, and I just kept saying you Tennessee
40:46
Speaker 1: doesn't have the weapons to really compete in this game.
40:48
Speaker 1: The Bills do, and the Bills. This is interesting. It's
40:51
Speaker 1: come down this much because that means professionals are coming
40:54
Speaker 1: in on the Patriots. That's not public moving that number
40:56
Speaker 1: on the Patriots, that's pros moving that number. So maybe
40:58
Speaker 1: that might give me a little hesitant. It's to like
41:00
Speaker 1: really hammer this Bill's number. But wow, primetime game, you
41:05
Speaker 1: have the more veteran team in the Bills at home.
41:07
Speaker 1: I love it. I love it, love it, love it.
41:09
Speaker 1: So I will be all over this bills and minus three.
41:12
Speaker 1: The difference in your confidence level today versus a month
41:16
Speaker 1: ago is insane. Oh yeah, I mean I was fucking
41:20
Speaker 1: getting smacked around, brother. I mean, I wish I could
41:23
Speaker 1: act like I didn't bet real money. But yeah, if
41:25
Speaker 1: you're losing six figures on a Colts game in the
41:28
Speaker 1: final minute, you're gonna be You're gonna be hurting a
41:30
Speaker 1: little bit, my friends. So are any of these bets
41:33
Speaker 1: gonna be one of your four biggest bets of the year.
41:36
Speaker 1: I don't know. Maybe, like there's there's a couple of
41:39
Speaker 1: games here I really do love. I won't make a
41:41
Speaker 1: big bet like that on Tuesday, especially with COVID going on,
41:44
Speaker 1: Like it's too much to bet the risks. I'll probably
41:47
Speaker 1: I'll know more by next show for sure. When I
41:50
Speaker 1: have to like stuff, you know, I have to do it,
41:51
Speaker 1: I just send it in to get it approved. So
41:53
Speaker 1: there's two games on mine right now, but I don't
41:56
Speaker 1: force it so like if they get rejected, it's so
41:57
Speaker 1: biggie Like there's always gonna be other opportunities. But I'm
42:00
Speaker 1: high right now, So I'm hoping they just let it,
42:02
Speaker 1: they let me approve it, just because I've been on
42:04
Speaker 1: a really good run last couple of weeks with these
42:06
Speaker 1: dogs and this this week is no different. I just
42:08
Speaker 1: these lines are so inflated. That's that's what we talked
42:11
Speaker 1: about the time. My favorite thing about sports betting being
42:13
Speaker 1: legalized across the country. There's some games I get an
42:16
Speaker 1: extra two three points of value on these dogs, and
42:18
Speaker 1: that's an extra plus two hundreds sometimes on their money line.
42:21
Speaker 1: So this is the definition of the public might be
42:25
Speaker 1: just absolutely destroyed after this week. I mean, they've had
42:27
Speaker 1: a bad month, this this week really is lining up
42:30
Speaker 1: for just an absolute whale of a week for the
42:33
Speaker 1: sports books. Well, if I had to guess, I'd say
42:35
Speaker 1: the two games are probably the Falcons and the Steelers.
42:41
Speaker 1: Maybe wow, all right, Well we'll find out on Thursday.
42:45
Speaker 1: I mean, how gross does it feel to even say that?
42:47
Speaker 1: Oh God, hear it out loud. It's disgusting. It's disgusting.
42:50
Speaker 1: It's like, that's why people shouldn't bet. All right. I
42:55
Speaker 1: feel like we've got a pretty good beat on five
42:57
Speaker 1: that we like though. Yeah, Niance, Falcons, Steelers, Texans, Bears,
43:05
Speaker 1: Broncos Bills. It's a good lineup right there. Yeah, yeah,
43:09
Speaker 1: I like that. That is a good lineup. All right.
43:13
Speaker 1: We got our foxhol that is um the Giants, right,
43:17
Speaker 1: that was the Giants, and we got our Simon says,
43:20
Speaker 1: that is the Steelers. I forgot who we did for
43:23
Speaker 1: scoochro Lett. Does anybody remember who we did for Scoocher? Wait?
43:26
Speaker 1: Wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait. Matt Mitchell,
43:29
Speaker 1: do you have anything you want to say about the
43:31
Speaker 1: Bills and the Paths in this Marquis Monday night matchup
43:33
Speaker 1: that will define football for a generation. In the Paris
43:38
Speaker 1: of Western New York. The Bills off a huge nationally
43:42
Speaker 1: televised when coming home for a high stakes, money night
43:46
Speaker 1: football showdown against there our tribal as a favorite. I
43:51
Speaker 1: can't see anything going around? Sounds great, I can't, well,
43:54
Speaker 1: I should sounds like I should get my expectations sky high.
43:58
Speaker 1: We're all according to Simon, you should it. It was
44:01
Speaker 1: the worst thing I've heard in ages, hearing him say
44:03
Speaker 1: that I want to puke my guts out into this
44:05
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bill's trash can by um, but also Go Bills,
44:10
Speaker 1: very excited. Go Bills. Who do we have for Scoot Roulette.
44:14
Speaker 1: Who do we take? Last week? I always forget you
44:16
Speaker 1: took the Denver Broncos and Simon took the New York Giants.
44:19
Speaker 1: All right, that sounds right. We have some controversy chat
44:21
Speaker 1: Apparently week eleven, you took the Saints. He took the
44:24
Speaker 1: Saints against the Eagles. I would have lost them, right,
44:28
Speaker 1: So people are really upset. I said, Chad's not a
44:30
Speaker 1: con artist. Chad just as old. He doesn't remember who
44:32
Speaker 1: he took. People really thought you were trying to scan me.
44:35
Speaker 1: I just forgot. Come on, you're listening to the show
44:39
Speaker 1: and they don't know that I don't have con in
44:42
Speaker 1: my body and you just forgot like people are acting
44:45
Speaker 1: like you were trying to pull one up on me.
44:46
Speaker 1: Was like, you technically shouldn't have gone first last week
44:48
Speaker 1: you had lost on the Saints. But that's okay, listen,
44:51
Speaker 1: if that's the case, then go first this week. I
44:53
Speaker 1: want you to have it because I'm not a con artist.
44:56
Speaker 1: Just that. Why the fact that Simon and I have
44:58
Speaker 1: jobs because of Chad so good proofpoint that he is
45:01
Speaker 1: not a con artist exactly. Maybe I'm the one getting cold. Yeah,
45:07
Speaker 1: damn it. I mean I guess I have to do it.
45:10
Speaker 1: I have to take Pittsburgh three and a half. Oh
45:12
Speaker 1: my god, you're gross. That is disgusting. All right, since
45:17
Speaker 1: you're taking the Steelers three and a half for Scooch Roulette,
45:21
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the Atlanta Falcons. There you go. Yeah,
45:26
Speaker 1: I'm going to Falcons plus ten and a half. I
45:28
Speaker 1: guess it should be noted by the way, I did
45:31
Speaker 1: get a lovely text from everybody's favorite bookmaker, bookmaker to
45:35
Speaker 1: the world, Bob Scucci Thanksgiving. He wishes everybody well. He
45:38
Speaker 1: misses us all. He's a big fan of the show.
45:41
Speaker 1: He's just the best. Talk about not being a con artist.
45:45
Speaker 1: He's got to hop on. Man, he's the classiest ever.
45:47
Speaker 1: Should bring him off for a Christmas edition. He won't
45:49
Speaker 1: do it. I've asked him to come on. He won't
45:51
Speaker 1: come back on. Well, here's the problem. I think I've
45:54
Speaker 1: said this. He like he's a total suit now. He
45:58
Speaker 1: doesn't really pay attention to the game games. He doesn't
46:00
Speaker 1: pay attention to the lines, so he doesn't feel he
46:03
Speaker 1: can speak with authority on the topic. But maybe we'll
46:07
Speaker 1: just bring him on. It's like, say, hi, all your yeah,
46:12
Speaker 1: we'll do that, Bob Scucci. If you're listening, we don't care.
46:16
Speaker 1: If you don't know about the games, we don't care
46:18
Speaker 1: if you don't want to talk about the NFL. The
46:21
Speaker 1: hardcore fans of the show miss you. We want to
46:23
Speaker 1: hear about you. I want to know how you will
46:25
Speaker 1: missus scoocher doing. We just want to check in, especially
46:28
Speaker 1: around the holidays. We love you. Bob, join the show
46:30
Speaker 1: one more time for all time's sake. I'll try to.
46:33
Speaker 1: I'll try to do it. I'll remind him. All right, listen,
46:37
Speaker 1: our foxhol is already forgot the Foxhol. See I'm not
46:41
Speaker 1: conning anybody. I just took bad notes. Okay. Foxhol was
46:46
Speaker 1: the Giants plus three, Simon says, bet the Steelers plus
46:49
Speaker 1: three and a half. Scoot Roulette Simon on the Steelers,
46:52
Speaker 1: chat on the Falcons. We've narrowed down the board. We
46:55
Speaker 1: will be back on Thursday. Things will have changed. We
46:59
Speaker 1: might get one assignment's biggest bets of the year. Until then,
47:03
Speaker 1: download the podcast from Apple Podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you
47:06
Speaker 1: get your podcasts. I am Chad Milman, he is Simon Hunter.
47:09
Speaker 1: I love you, h