Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Rate Cut Season Heats Up🚨Crypto Market Update

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Rate Cut Season Heats Up🚨Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: All right, let's dive into raycut season. Is this going
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: to impact how the market is going? My name is
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Paul Barren. Welcome back into the show. Let's get into it.
• 0:07
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• 0:36
  Speaker 1: can get started.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Let's go into it today.
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: A couple of things I want to hit on right
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: now is US Labor Department revises now again almost a
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: million jobs out of the data that was reported over
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: the past twelve months ending in March twenty twenty five.
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: This is bad.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: I think we kind of anticipated this is something I
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: talk about often. I hit up about just bad data
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: coming out of these government agencies. It, of course now seems.
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: To be the point.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: I want to go to a clip real quick, because
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: this is the White House talking about this.
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 1:07
  Speaker 4: White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt out with a long
• 1:09
  Speaker 4: new statement on this. She says in full, today the
• 1:12
  Speaker 4: BLS released the largest downward revision on record, proving that
• 1:15
  Speaker 4: President Trump was right, Biden's economy was a disaster, and
• 1:19
  Speaker 4: the BLS is broken. This is exactly why we need
• 1:22
  Speaker 4: new leadership to restore trust and confidence in the BLS's
• 1:25
  Speaker 4: data on behalf of the financial markets, businesses, policymakers, and
• 1:29
  Speaker 4: families that rely on this data to make major decisions.
• 1:33
  Speaker 4: Much like the BLS has failed the American people, so
• 1:35
  Speaker 4: has Jerome too late Powell, who has officially run out
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: of excuses and must cut the rates now. So essentially,
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: Carl the White House here using this benchmark revisions report
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: today to sort of bolster their argument and justify their
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: firing earlier this summer of BLS Commissioner Erica mcintarfer saying
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: that these you know, they said at the time the
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: revisions were too large that they needed to look closer
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: at the data and see why what was going on
• 2:00
  Speaker 4: on why those revisions were so large. Now they're saying
• 2:02
  Speaker 4: they were justified in doing that. That's why they need
• 2:05
  Speaker 4: new leadership, all right.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: So a lot happening out there in terms of jobs numbers.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: This is something I talk about for quite a long time,
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: and that is I don't believe the job numbers have
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: come out of our government. And this continues. I still
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: wonder if the data that we're getting now is even accurate.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: It's possible it could be even worse than that, which
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: would be catastrophic. And I think that's where we are
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: right now, guys, in terms of the market, in terms
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: of the economy, and I think the Fed unfortunately, for
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: whatever reason, I don't understand the point of why they
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: aren't able to get to access data that's more efficient
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: and more accurate.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: This, of course, has continued.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: To push Powell in a direction that he really has
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: no choice.
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: Now. One other clip that gets into.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: This is the tariff issue that's starting to play into this,
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: because we still have inflation that could be affected by tariffs,
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: and now we have this whole job loss. Take a
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: look at this clip.
• 2:56
  Speaker 5: So we're talking about a revision of a revision from
• 3:01
  Speaker 5: data from five months ago. I think that's why the
• 3:03
  Speaker 5: market is not reacting. I think the rate picture, to
• 3:07
  Speaker 5: me is prepped for the fact that there is concern
• 3:10
  Speaker 5: over the long end and that the short end is
• 3:13
  Speaker 5: going down seventy to seventy five basis points this year
• 3:16
  Speaker 5: with another twenty five next year. We've gone from a
• 3:19
  Speaker 5: two percent of GDP tariff rate before the inauguration to
• 3:25
  Speaker 5: a fifteen percent rate. That's not nothing, and so the
• 3:29
  Speaker 5: good news is that there is little more clarity on
• 3:32
  Speaker 5: the horizon that we're packed past peak. Let's call it
• 3:36
  Speaker 5: tariff temper tantrum. But you know, that's a seven to
• 3:40
  Speaker 5: eightfold increase in some of the input prices that consumers
• 3:45
  Speaker 5: and corporations are feeling, and I really don't think that's
• 3:50
  Speaker 5: shown up in the numbers. I think we're looking at
• 3:52
  Speaker 5: Q two, Q three, Q four, in the beginning of
• 3:55
  Speaker 5: Q six to see how that affects inflation.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: I'm an agreement with that analysts in terms of where
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: this could actually inflect pain on the market in general.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: I put out a tweet today that basically kind of
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: outlines something that I think is important, and that is
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: the China exports. This is down thirty three percent in August.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: This is a kind of a desperate pivot. I think
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: of China pivoting to the EU. And remember the EU
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: is a very small part. You can kind of see
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: the ASA N Chinese exports. That's of course the EU.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: There's China's experts to the EU. Chinese exports to the
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: US of course falling off dramatically. And this is just
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: over the last little bit. So it's possible that these
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: are going to start pushing hard into where the economy
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: is going again. Smart money is still hedging against this
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: INTI digital assets, but this could push us into maybe
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: a short lived tariff hit into inflation. The question is,
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: is ken Trump's administration pull us out of this through
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: these rate cuts. That's the real I think very tentative
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: navigation that has to be done over the next twelve months,
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: and a lot of this will lead to jobs and
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: businesses getting confidence back in the market and the economy
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: in general. Blackrock CIO comes in and says, hey, we
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: need it bigger than twenty five basis point. We need
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: a fifty basis point cut. This is what I'm calling for.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: It's actually the one I was calling for in July,
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: but I'm calling for it again in this month. And
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: that is that a fifty is going to set the tone,
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: and I think it will set the tone for multiple
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: rate cuts as we go in. If you look at Polymarket,
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: we'll just dive into the details right here. This is
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: where we are right now, and I'm going to go
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: down here and hover on the fifty basis points as
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: you can see up to fifteen percent. Just yesterday that
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: was at ten percent. We are now at fifteen percent.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: So if this is climbing by five percent a day
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: as possible, we could be over fifty percent before the
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: FOMC meeting, which means it's possible we could see a
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: fifty basis point rate cut further into poly Market. The
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: first time we've actually seen this, and that is seven
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: rate cuts. Let me kind of zoom in on that
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: for you guys. We have now eight or more seven
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: or more, six or more five or more starting to
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: make the board still holding with the winner right now
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: at three rate cuts at twenty five basis points right
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: now for the year. So this will be a big
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: one in the sense of how it plays into the markets,
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: and I think all of what we're seeing out there
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: is rate cut dependent, and the thing that's going to
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: get hit the most off of rate cuts is going
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: to be this right here, and that is money market funds. Eventually,
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: the FED fund rate will affect how banks and some
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: of these institutions are paying people to keep their money
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: in money market puns, which is still at one of
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: the highest rates out there, maybe in the history of
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: how money market funds are going. But right now we
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: have seven point four trillion. That's up another four hundred
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: million or billion dollars in just a short period of time.
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: This is a.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Windfall, guys, into other components of investing. This will go
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: into the stock market, this will go into goal this
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: will go into digital assets. The question is what percentage
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: is going to start to navigate out of these money
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: market funds into the market if we continue to see
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: this push toward raycut. So all this all depending on
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: Next week, one of the biggest FMC meetings out there
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: will be airing it live for you guys. One other
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: point I want to get at is these data problems,
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: because this is going to be something that we got
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: to fix.
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: Take a look at this clip. Maybe we can use AI.
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: I don't know how can we.
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: Make it better. I've always wondered why we can't have
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: more accurate and timely collection of data from the States,
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: and I think that has to do probably with new computers,
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: new collections. That has always struck me. The other problem, Joe,
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: is that to the extent that it's an estimate, we're
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: always going to have problems with our models. This birth
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: death model that estimates the number of business creations and destruction,
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: it's always a source of their revisions, and I don't
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: know that they can do better than they've done. You
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: could step back and say, if the average error on
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: like one hundred and thirty or one hundred and fifty
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: million jobs is zero point two percent, maybe if they're
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: not doing that bad a job.
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: Okay, well that's not the average area.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: Because it's clearly the problem that we're dealing with right
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: now is this corrupt data that's coming out.
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: I don't know if it's.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Politically charge data that's being manipulated or if this is
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: really just that stupid. Either one is bad. I think
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: maybe the being that stupid is probably even worse. But
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: if you look at where we're going to be going
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: in the future. You've got to think about blockchain as
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: the only solution for this. This would be an open
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: network being able to track real data. Hopefully at the
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: state level, that would be pretty cool.
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: One of the states.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: If you're watching right now, no run just stands its
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: watched is our show. So you know, Ron, let's get
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: into blockchain data delivery and then maybe you'll show other
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: states how to get it done. Other things that you
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: got to look for is October twenty first.
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: This is another one.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: This of course is hosting a conference on payments innovation.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: This will be interesting to see what the Federal Reserve
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: does on that conference. This will be held on Tuesday,
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: October twenty first. All of this about innovation around a
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: constant in payments meeting changing consumer and businesses. But decentralized
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: finance and stable coin use cases are the key right there.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: All this right into the wheelhouse of where crypto is going.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin's price prediction right now is being said at two
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: hundred K and that is coming of course with FED
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: rate cuts coming into this and a couple of points
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: in the article I want to hit on right here,
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: and that is this statement right here if you look
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: at a certain amount of people considering where this is going.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: From an analyside, the nightmare scenario would be bulls would
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: be a no cut at all, okay, and you could
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: twist that and it would hit bitcoin and tech stocks.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: I think equally hard. That is a concern. I don't
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: anticipate that that will happen, but if it or, you
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: need to be headah against that. So it's possible that
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: Powell could actually not pull the trigger next week, and
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: it would be tough on the federal Reserve. I think
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: that would really cause a lot of administration pain. But
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: I think also if he only pulls the trigger on
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: a quarter basis points, it might be just as bad.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: So I wonder if a quarter basis point is enough
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: to move the market. Let me know in the comments
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: down below if you think a quarter is best.
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: Just put two five.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Yes or fifty if where If you agree with me
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: and I think that's fifty basis points. Congress advances their
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: bill for Strategic Bitcoin Reserve will seesed funds. This could
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: be good too, because now section one thirty seven of
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: the bill instructs Treasury to submit a report within ninety
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: days detailing how this is going.
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: To take place.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: Could this be the potential of where we start to
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: seize and some of these assets that are sitting out
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: there and we can get them on the book into
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: the strategic reserve or four things like bitcoin and other
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: digital assets to play into that. All this is good
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: for I think market in general. One thing that's kind
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: of unique is this headline right here, and that, of
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: course was Eric Trump downgraded to an observer with All five.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: All five, of course tied into the World Liberty Finance thing.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Company quietly revised its plan following consultations with Nasdaq, so
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: it's possible we could see this was in reference to
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: All five sigma really the company and tied to what
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: we're seeing with World Liberty Finance. So interesting moves out
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: there right now. Could be something else, don't know. We'll
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: keep a close track on this to give you guys
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: some updates.
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: As we go forward.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Robinhood may hit one hundred and sixty bucks on one
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: hundred percent revenue growth by twenty twenty six. Is coming
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: in from bursaying simply meeting Robin Hood's got all the
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: oars in the water. They are doing things the right way.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Even though I'm still at odds with Lad about not
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: launching banking and getting the credit card out to all
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: its users. Lad, if you're listening and watching, we'd love
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: to have you on the show. But the good thing
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: is is they have this going on right here and
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: that's the Hood Summit. So kicking off this is going
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: to be going with trading demos, lots of partnerships. They
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: are definitely starting to kind of project their innerspirit animal
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: as his Vlad would say, meaning they're growing and there's
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: a big opportunity here. Crypto will be a big part
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: of this, but this is more about other possibilities within Robinhood.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Last up is Matt Hogan. He hits on something that's
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: kind of interesting here, and I wanted to kind of
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: press Matt on this idea. The scare articles about stable
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: coins destroying local lending markets is absurd. Now's point is
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: is that, more importantly, the idea of credit will dry
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: up if stable coins compete with traditional banks. Classic first
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: order thinking, Yes, banks will provide less credit if they
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: have fewer deposits. That is true, but instead people with
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: stable coins will provide credit directly to borrows through DeFi
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: that's going to happen most likely. I do see regional
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: banks being impacted, but there is a solution here, So
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: I kind of disagree with Matt in the sense that
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: regional banks will be impacted, But there is a solution
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: out there, and it's out there right now. If you
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: look at this network, which is a global dollar network,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: this is the stable coin that is a network oriented
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: stable coin. And look who is using this right now.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: You've got Robinhood, Kraken, Anchorage, Digital worldpay Okax, all these
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: galaxy Why not just layer in Fifth Third Bank, PNC,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: all of these regionals going into this and utilize stable
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: coins and get into the game. That's the solution that
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: banks need to be looking at right now. Hopefully the
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: regional banks are listening to our show right now about that,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: but if they're not, that's okay, because you are and
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: you're ready to get moving in crypto. And the one
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: way that you can do that is get in the
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: Diamond Circle. The Diamond Circle is our own special group.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: It's private.
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: You guys can join down below. It's absolutely free.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: I drop an email layer each week kind of talking
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: about where the market is, what my opinions are on
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: where I'm going. You don't want to miss it, use
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: the link down below. Of course, follow me out there
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: on X at Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: right here on The Paul Baron Show.