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Americans could receive ‘massive checks’ in the largest tax refund cycle · Cultural Wars | America Out Loud News

• 0:09
  You're listening to the Hidden Lightness on America Out Loud Talk Radio.
• 0:13
  I'm your host, Jimmy Hinton.
• 0:16
  There are big big tax cuts that are coming down the pike.
• 0:23
  That's according to the Trump administration specifically.
• 0:27
  Hassett says we're going to receive massive massive refund checks.
• 0:33
  Well, we know the news cycle.
• 0:37
  We hear it all the time.
• 0:38
  You know that I'm not a big fan of negative news and the endless news cycles that focus on doom and gloom and how bad things are, and things are getting worse, and they've never been as bad.
• 0:54
  We hear this cycle constantly.
• 0:56
  It's on loop, literally 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
• 1:02
  But this story caught my attention.
• 1:06
  And of course, President Trump himself, he touted this uh during his speech a couple weeks ago.
• 1:15
  And he said, We're on the uh on the economic recovery.
• 1:20
  We're on the cusp of economic return, and things have never been better, and Americans are going to find these massive, massive refund checks come tax time.
• 1:34
  Well, is this all hype?
• 1:36
  And this is what I want to break down today.
• 1:39
  Is this all hype?
• 1:41
  Or is this actually going to happen?
• 1:43
  Because we've heard now multiple times.
• 1:46
  There are going to be doge dividend checks.
• 1:50
  That never happened.
• 1:52
  Not a surprise, but that never happened.
• 1:56
  Then we heard we're gonna get a tariff dividend check.
• 2:02
  $2,000 per taxpayer, that there are trillions of dollars.
• 2:07
  That's our president's claim.
• 2:10
  Trillions of dollars have come in tariff revenue.
• 2:16
  Well, I've seen the actual numbers.
• 2:19
  That's not true.
• 2:22
  Uh there is something like, I don't know, tens of billions of dollars that have come in in tariff revenue, not anywhere close to the trillions of dollars, not even in the in the same ballpark.
• 2:40
  Nevertheless, that's his claim, and we were gonna get these uh dividend checks for tariffs sent out immediately.
• 2:50
  It never happened.
• 2:53
  No surprise there.
• 2:56
  So now we turn to the uh third component, these massive refund checks.
• 3:05
  Is it gonna happen?
• 3:06
  Or is this more false hope?
• 3:09
  Dished out by the president and his administration.
• 3:13
  And if we are going to get these biggest refund cycle checks ever, uh what's that mean for us?
• 3:25
  How do we treat those funds?
• 3:28
  What do we do with that money?
• 3:30
  You know, is this kind of the holy grail for uh for Americans who are really struggling?
• 3:38
  At the same time, the uh it's you know, the end of the year came and went, and uh everybody disappeared.
• 3:48
  They all took off, all the politicians took off for vacation, and absolutely nothing was done for health care.
• 3:59
  So healthcare costs are projected to skyrocket, absolutely skyrocket, beginning right now, January 1st, the beginning of the year.
• 4:13
  Uh the subsidies are expiring or did expire.
• 4:18
  So people can't afford health care.
• 4:24
  So is this a holy grail for people?
• 4:28
  Is this President Trump's way of helping people afford health care?
• 4:34
  Because there's definitely not a plan for it.
• 4:36
  There's been no clear plan whatsoever by either party, both parties equally as guilty.
• 4:44
  There's been no plan for fixing the broken healthcare system.
• 4:50
  And Americans really are in limbo right now.
• 4:54
  And planning financially is becoming more and more difficult.
• 5:00
  And so I want to talk about that because there are many, many, many things that we can be doing.
• 5:05
  And I I just am one of those people that I do not want to be beholden to a government entity.
• 5:14
  You know, to sit around and wait and hope and cross your fingers and hope and pray that the politicians are gonna come through when they rarely do.
• 5:24
  Yeah, that's no way to live.
• 5:26
  That's to me, that's super high stress, very high anxiety, and uh very, very little freedom.
• 5:37
  You know, uh when we're waiting for that refund check, and I've talked about this before.
• 5:45
  And and part of the reason I talk about this is because I know so many people who they can't wait for that next refund check.
• 5:55
  I mean, literally all year it is this anticipation for next year's refund check.
• 6:04
  They just wonder what that's gonna be because they're barely scraping by, and depending on what size that that tax refund check is, that's gonna determine whether they make it another year or not.
• 6:20
  I refuse to live that way.
• 6:24
  I can't.
• 6:25
  I can not rely on the government because the tax codes change all the time.
• 6:33
  You know, they really do.
• 6:34
  They they change very often.
• 6:36
  And honestly, our refund checks, I I've been paying taxes my entire adult life.
• 6:44
  And my refund checks, which I I overpay, and I know the best financial uh advisors say you you should never do that.
• 6:55
  You know, you should plan it in such a way that that you get zero back, you don't owe money, and you don't get money back.
• 7:04
  Well, I am not a tax genius, believe it or not.
• 7:09
  Um I'm saying that facetiously here because I am terrible at math, and accounting is absolutely painful to me.
• 7:20
  Some people love it, and I'm thankful that they love it because I love my accountant.
• 7:27
  I absolutely adore my accountant, and I'm grateful.
• 7:31
  I'm so grateful that she loves doing taxes.
• 7:35
  She loves accounting, and she's extremely good at it, and that's why I pay somebody to do it.
• 7:41
  I just, it's beyond my expertise, and I don't want to mess up.
• 7:47
  I don't want to get fined.
• 7:49
  Uh, I want everything to be perfectly by the book.
• 7:54
  So again, I I would never ever, ever have anything positive to say for people who um who evade taxes.
• 8:04
  Yeah, I believe all Americans should uh we should pay our taxes.
• 8:10
  I don't love how the taxes are spent, but I I just we have so little control over that.
• 8:18
  But we've got to be law-abiding citizens.
• 8:20
  We have to pay our taxes.
• 8:21
  Now, if we can find loopholes, uh, legal loopholes and find ways to reduce our taxes, I'm all for it.
• 8:31
  By all means, maximize your your tax savings.
• 8:35
  But all that to say, I end up, my wife and I end up overpaying because we're just that kind of people.
• 8:42
  You know, it's like there are some people who in their car, they wait until the gas light comes on, and they're like, well, maybe now I should start looking for a gas station.
• 8:56
  And then they're watching the numbers go down, and it's like distance to empty, and they get down to zero, and they're like, zero doesn't really mean zero because the car manufacturers build in a little bit of a buffer.
• 9:10
  So zero distance to to empty, if it says zero miles, you might actually have about 30.
• 9:19
  And so people will push that to the very, very limit, which by the way, I don't recommend.
• 9:24
  That's extremely hard on your fuel pump.
• 9:30
  And injectors and all kinds of things.
• 9:32
  Uh, don't do it.
• 9:35
  Do not do that to your poor car.
• 9:39
  Um, but then there are people like me where when I get down to a quarter tank, I'm I'm like, man, I need to wheel it in right now and get gas.
• 9:50
  Yeah, I rarely let our cars get below a quarter tank.
• 9:54
  It's extremely rare.
• 9:57
  And especially on road trips, and and
• 10:00
  On road trips, if the weather's bad, I'll really not let it get down.
• 10:05
  I'll never get let it get down to a quarter tank.
• 10:08
  So, you know, a lot of this boils down to personality.
• 10:11
  So my wife and I both have that similar personality, and we're like, I'd rather overpay than to come back at the end of the year and I owe, you know, six thousand dollars in taxes.
• 10:23
  And it's very hard to predict because our income fluctuates a little bit.
• 10:28
  So it's it's really difficult when we pay quarterly taxes to estimate properly to get that to a zero sum.
• 10:37
  All right, so uh that's kind of my spiel on uh paying quarterly taxes.
• 10:44
  It's it's really difficult.
• 10:45
  So we tend to overpay.
• 10:47
  I've always, with the exception of one year, and that's because I made a mistake on my previous year of taxes.
• 10:56
  With the exception of one year, I always get some kind of a refund back.
• 11:02
  Now last year it was uh uh well, this year.
• 11:05
  Um I don't even know what year it is.
• 11:08
  2025.
• 11:11
  Um that year.
• 11:13
  We just turned turned the the leaf on a new year.
• 11:17
  I can't believe that this year has flown by that fast.
• 11:20
  But anyway, 2025, our our refund check was very small, very insignificant.
• 11:30
  And for some people, that would put them into a big tailspin.
• 11:33
  They like they rely on that money.
• 11:37
  It didn't phase us.
• 11:39
  We had no idea.
• 11:40
  I mean, we honestly have no idea.
• 11:42
  When I hand all of my paperwork to my accountant, I I literally have zero clue what we're gonna get back.
• 11:52
  Or oh, I have no idea.
• 11:55
  So whenever we get it, uh whenever she calls me and says, hey, I have I have your taxes here, everything's completed.
• 12:04
  I go over and I always look at it in the parking lot.
• 12:07
  I open it up before I get home.
• 12:10
  And uh, you know, it's for me, it's kind of fun.
• 12:14
  I just uh I it's morbid curiosity, but it doesn't affect anything for a personal budget.
• 12:23
  And so that's the point here.
• 12:26
  Is that this is being touted as almost like a uh a lottery ticket.
• 12:32
  Like all these people are gonna win these big winnings, and it's gonna it's gonna be life-changing.
• 12:38
  And so that's kind of how it's being presented by both the president and Hassett, in my opinion.
• 12:45
  You know, they're they're they're kind of making the sound much better than what it actually is.
• 12:52
  Because they know politically, that's a you know, it's a very smart move as a politician to make it look like they're they're the heroes because a lot of people live that way.
• 13:04
  Where they're waiting for the government to do something really good that that affects our pocketbook in a positive way.
• 13:13
  So I'm um I'm gonna talk as the show unfolds here today.
• 13:16
  I'm gonna talk about how to not get caught up in that trap.
• 13:23
  And uh, I'm gonna throw the number out here because it says uh these are their numbers.
• 13:30
  But um Hassett says that families are gonna see on average 11,000 to 20,000 savings in the largest tax refund season in the history of America.
• 13:48
  All right, so 11,000 to 20,000 per household is what they're gonna see in tax savings.
• 13:58
  So uh I don't know.
• 14:01
  Is this inflated?
• 14:02
  We'll find out.
• 14:04
  I won't know until uh probably April.
• 14:09
  We always turn our taxes in super early.
• 14:12
  So it just depends when my accountant gets it done, but I'll find out.
• 14:17
  And whatever.
• 14:19
  Yeah, if I get 10 grand, 15 grand back in taxes, I'll I'll be happy, but it's not gonna be life-changing.
• 14:29
  Um let me read some of this article here.
• 14:32
  This is a Fox business article.
• 14:35
  This is by Kristen Altus.
• 14:39
  And the title of the article is Trump Economist Predit Predicts Biggest Refund Cycle Ever.
• 14:46
  Massive checks ahead.
• 14:49
  Uh, a leading contender to become President Trump's next Federal Reserve Chair said the administration expects larger tax refunds and higher take-home pay next year, as many Americans continue to express concerns about affordability.
• 15:07
  Uh quote, this is from National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett.
• 15:14
  He says, We're going to see the biggest refund cycle ever in the history of America.
• 15:20
  And people are going to get massive refund checks.
• 15:25
  We're expecting just that part of it alone to be worth a couple thousand dollar refund.
• 15:30
  The numbers are striking.
• 15:34
  All right.
• 15:36
  Um pay up, government.
• 15:40
  You know, it's so interesting.
• 15:42
  Don't fall for this trap, folks.
• 15:44
  Um people are looking at this as a gift from the government.
• 15:50
  This is your money.
• 15:52
  Keep in mind, they're they're not creating money that didn't exist.
• 15:57
  This is not a bonus.
• 15:58
  This is not a uh a company bonus at the end of the year because you performed well.
• 16:06
  This is your money.
• 16:10
  You worked for this money.
• 16:13
  So if if they're really cutting taxes as much as they say they are, okay, great.
• 16:19
  Um, I'm all for it.
• 16:21
  I think that's a good thing.
• 16:22
  It uh that will free up a lot of money.
• 16:26
  And I would rather the money be in your hands and my hands than in the government's possession.
• 16:34
  I just think we're a lot better with money than what the government is.
• 16:39
  We found that with what Doge discovered.
• 16:42
  The government is not very good at spending our money.
• 16:46
  I mean, they are good at it.
• 16:48
  That's the problem.
• 16:49
  They're probably too good at it.
• 16:51
  But we'll break these numbers down after the break.
• 16:54
  We are coming up on a break here.
• 16:55
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• 19:45
  President Trump's uh upcoming Federal Reserve Chair, at least the man he wants to be the Federal Reserve Chair, he says that we're gonna have the biggest report.
• 20:00
  Refund cycle ever.
• 20:02
  So he's talking about the tax refund checks.
• 20:05
  And that, of course, is because of the big beautiful bill that was passed in the middle of the summer on July 4th.
• 20:13
  And he says again, quote, we're going to see the biggest refund cycle ever in the history of America.
• 20:21
  And people are going to get massive refund checks.
• 20:24
  He said, we're expecting just that part of it alone to be worth a couple thousand dollar refund.
• 20:29
  The numbers are striking.
• 20:32
  All right.
• 20:34
  Again, President Trump himself said that the administration expects the largest tax refund season of all time.
• 20:43
  That'll be in the spring.
• 20:46
  And families supposedly are going to save between 11,000 and 20,000 annually on their taxes.
• 20:55
  So read a little bit from this article.
• 20:57
  Again, this is a Fox Business News article.
• 21:01
  This is written by Kristen Altis.
• 21:03
  I'll link to it in the show notes.
• 21:06
  But she says that Hassett backed up his claim and he pushed back against the sentiment from a recent Fox News poll, which found that 44% of those surveys say that they're falling behind financially.
• 21:22
  And 74% view the economy as not so good or as bad.
• 21:32
  Hassett went on to say, you saw in the jobs report that wages for the typical worker were up 3.7%.
• 21:42
  So if you're running 3.7% wage increases at 1.6% core inflation, then real wages are growing at a rate of about two to 2.5%.
• 21:55
  Our estimates, by our estimates right now, blue-collar workers have already seen an almost $2,000 raise this year after inflation because wages are growing so much faster than prices.
• 22:09
  Now this is kind of interesting.
• 22:20
  And I know millions more of Americans have either gotten no pay pay increase or it's been pretty pathetic.
• 22:29
  So I don't know where this data is coming from, and I think it does get skewed from a lot of the inner cities.
• 22:38
  You know, the cities across America, they probably companies that are in the cities are able to give pay increases, but a lot of places can't, or they haven't.
• 22:50
  And wages have absolutely not kept up with inflation.
• 22:54
  That's just I've I've seen every model out there, and it's just simply not true that wages are keeping up with inflation.
• 23:03
  They're not.
• 23:12
  And an American Airlines pilot, a captain of a Boeing 737, posted a screenshot of his wages.
• 23:22
  And in one pay period, in a two-week period, his check was over 22,000.
• 23:30
  And he's getting like almost 400 an hour.
• 23:34
  It's pretty incredible.
• 23:36
  And I've talked about this plenty before.
• 23:38
  I I have a son who is absolutely just deeply involved in everything aviation.
• 23:45
  He just absolutely loves it.
• 23:47
  He wants to become a pilot.
• 23:48
  And I tell him all the time, like it's just such a good field to get into.
• 23:52
  And there's a big shortage.
• 23:55
  And I certainly am going to encourage him to pursue that as a career.
• 24:02
  He loves it.
• 24:03
  You know, and it's not, it's not for the money.
• 24:05
  There are plenty of other things out there that pay well.
• 24:08
  But he just has such a passion for it.
• 24:11
  But, you know, besides for airline pilots and a handful of other jobs, there aren't many jobs that really have kept up within inflation.
• 24:23
  Nevertheless, Hassett remains bullish on the economy.
• 24:29
  And I do too, quite frankly.
• 24:32
  I think that our economy is very robust.
• 24:36
  I think that even if we're experiencing a recession, that uh there are plenty of recession for recession proof jobs, and our economy has always been resilient.
• 24:48
  So I I do, you know, I want to keep this positive because I do think there are so many positive things, but I just I wonder if these are actual numbers, or if they're cherry-picking numbers and making it sound like the administration is doing so much for the American people.
• 25:07
  I tend to fall in the latter category.
• 25:11
  I think they're blowing a lot of smoke.
• 25:14
  Uh, however, with that said, I do think that the economy's doing decent, and that whatever the refund checks are, however, much is is saved in taxes, there are ways that we can maximize that.
• 25:28
  There are ways that we need to be maximizing that.
• 25:31
  All right, so that's what I want to focus on.
• 25:35
  So this should never be viewed as as like this big staving grace that's gonna come and save our checking account.
• 25:45
  Right?
• 25:46
  We shouldn't be sitting around with our hands out, panting, you know, desperate for this money to come in our pockets, and we're like, I can't wait.
• 25:58
  You know, I'm I'm I'm drooling, waiting in line for my refund check to come.
• 26:05
  I I don't want anybody to be in that position.
• 26:10
  Because it's just it's not good, and that plays right into the hands of these politicians who already have very swollen egos.
• 26:21
  And they're, of course, gonna paint a narrative where of course we're the superheroes.
• 26:29
  We're doing everything we can.
• 26:31
  You know, right now our governor is doing it like crazy.
• 26:33
  TikTok Josh is you know, talking about these pathetic um tax incentives or whatever for for very poor Pennsylvanians.
• 26:45
  And I did the math, and it ends up being, you know, like I don't know, it's something ridiculous, like a hundred dollars or something.
• 26:55
  But he's touting the quote millions.
• 26:58
  He says, uh, we're putting millions of dollars back into the the hands of hardworking Pennsylvanians.
• 27:06
  So I did the calculations and figured out how many, how many Pennsylvanians are actually going to get this refund check from the state government, and it's absolutely anemic.
• 27:20
  But he's touting this like, oh my goodness, you're gonna you're gonna live so much better, and you're gonna breathe easier.
• 27:28
  And uh it's just it's insane.
• 27:33
  So uh, you know, it's it's kind of the the bait and switch thing.
• 27:39
  It's like they bait you in, and then and then they switch things around, and all of a sudden your check is very anemic, and you're like, wait, I I thought we were gonna get this massive check.
• 27:49
  Oh no, no, no, I never said that.
• 27:52
  You know, uh we said that we're we're taking millions of dollars and and putting those dollars into the hands of millions of uh uh of Pennsylvanians, and so your check is is less because of that, right?
• 28:06
  It's the bait and switch.
• 28:08
  It's you make people think that they're getting a lot more than they are, and then whenever they're disappointed, you just move on to the next narrative and hope that people forget about it.
• 28:21
  So uh, I don't know.
• 28:23
  I don't know what we'll actually get from the federal government.
• 28:26
  Uh, it will be interesting to find out.
• 28:28
  I'm sure there are tax experts who have already run the numbers.
• 28:32
  I'm positive of that.
• 28:35
  Though I've not seen a whole lot written about it.
• 28:39
  So uh it'll be interesting, but there is a lot of good news in this.
• 28:47
  That I do think that we're gonna see a lot of tax breaks.
• 28:51
  I really do.
• 28:52
  I, you know, I've talked about this before when the big beautiful bill first came out.
• 28:56
  I highlighted some points that I thought were good, and I especially zeroed in on the Trump accounts.
• 29:03
  I still think that that's a fantastic thing.
• 29:07
  I really really like the Trump accounts, and I think it's just it's so much potential to help young people start to build wealth.
• 29:18
  And I really believe that parents ought to take advantage of, I mean, full advantage of that.
• 29:26
  So there's a psychological shift that happens when Americans see massive checks, especially if they actually land in their accounts, the hidden lightness starts to become visible.
• 29:40
  You know, chef's consumer sentiment from survival mode to growth mode.
• 29:47
  And while there are a lot of Americans who are just gonna blow through that money and they're gonna treat it like it's a lottery winning, you know, there are a lot of Americans, unfortunately.
• 30:00
  Who are just going to blow through any bit of money that comes back in the form of refund check.
• 30:07
  Then there are going to be other people who they use it on necessities, tires for the car.
• 30:15
  Tires are extremely expensive.
• 30:18
  Maybe fuel oil to, you know, in the north here where we heat our houses with oil.
• 30:25
  Maybe they'll fill their tanks and kind of have a reserve for uh for next season.
• 30:33
  Uh, you might have people pay off uh an extra portion of the principal on cars or on their house.
• 30:43
  I know a lot of people do that with their refund checks.
• 30:48
  And still other people, and this is what I recommend is that you invest that money.
• 30:56
  That you put that money to work, and you find a way, uh, kind of like the parable of the talents, you find a way to put that money to work and you double that money.
• 31:09
  So I want to talk about uh a couple different things.
• 31:12
  So there is the psychological shift, but there's also the liquidity in the middle class.
• 31:17
  Yeah, these refunds aren't just for the wealthy.
• 31:21
  Uh the cycle targets the heart of the economy, the working family, and it gives them breathing room to pay off their debt or to invest in their homes.
• 31:32
  And this I think is the uh this is the best use of the money.
• 31:37
  And for me, this is just extra money.
• 31:40
  And for a lot of Americans, this is just extra money.
• 31:44
  Now it's your money.
• 31:45
  So again, don't confuse the two things.
• 31:48
  This is your money.
• 31:51
  But the government, the tax code, the way that they rewrote it, it frees up more of our money.
• 31:58
  All right, so I'm gonna take some some more of my money, and you better believe I'm gonna invest.
• 32:06
  So uh retirement accounts should already be maxed out, if able, if possible.
• 32:13
  And beyond the retirement accounts, there are different things that you can do.
• 32:16
  I've talked before about the custodial accounts.
• 32:20
  You know, if you don't have a custodial account for your child, open one up, open some kind of an investment account for your child, and just having that opened, that begins a psychological shift as well.
• 32:37
  Because your child sees that.
• 32:39
  And I I suggest being transparent.
• 32:42
  I would not hide that from my kids.
• 32:45
  I know some parents they they hide the fact that they've been investing for their kids.
• 32:51
  And then one day they just surprise their kids.
• 32:54
  I don't really like that method.
• 32:56
  Though I'm not saying there's anything wrong with it.
• 32:58
  I just don't prefer it.
• 33:01
  Because in my mind, if all of a sudden a kid has, you know, 30, 40,000, 50,000 that they had no idea that they had, that can feel like a lottery winning.
• 33:14
  And psychologically, we know what people do whenever they win the lottery.
• 33:19
  They blow through that money because now all of a sudden they think that they have all this all this free cash and they just want it and it just came out of thin air, and they haven't seen the process for how you grew that money to 30, 40, 50,000 or whatever the amount is.
• 33:36
  So I think being transparent is a really good idea.
• 33:39
  Let your kids see how painfully slow it is until compound interest starts doing its thing, how painfully slow it is to start building that fund.
• 33:50
  They need to see that.
• 33:53
  All right, then there's another component called the refund multiplier.
• 33:58
  One dollar in a tax refund is often more powerful than one dollar in a government subsidy.
• 34:07
  Because you, the citizen, gets to choose where and how to spend it.
• 34:13
  That drives efficiency in the market.
• 34:15
  So that's called the refund multiplier, where refunds are much better than subsidies.
• 34:21
  That right now, everybody's begging for subsidies.
• 34:24
  They're on their hands and knees begging the big fat government.
• 34:30
  They're like, please give us subsidies for our health care.
• 34:35
  We're begging you.
• 34:37
  They're literally begging the government to give subsidies for health care.
• 34:42
  I'd rather see that money go back into the pockets of the people.
• 34:50
  And we don't beg the government, we demand the government redo the entire healthcare system.
• 34:58
  It's broken.
• 35:00
  They need to overhaul the healthcare system.
• 35:04
  It's uh glorified turd.
• 35:07
  Yeah, it's so corrupt and uh it's just so broken.
• 35:14
  So why would we want our money to be subsidized where you're you're gonna lose lots of the value of that dollar?
• 35:22
  It's just gonna be squashed.
• 35:24
  It's gonna come back in the form of subsidies, going to people who it really shouldn't be going to.
• 35:34
  And they keep our current healthcare system on life support with these dumb subsidies.
• 35:40
  I'd rather see that money go back into the hands of us.
• 35:44
  You know, and that's again called the refund multiplier.
• 35:49
  So it's really interesting to see again what's gonna happen.
• 35:52
  And if this is true, and I kind of lean towards these numbers being somewhat accurate, that if we're really seeing 11,000 to what was it, 11 to uh 20 something thousand, if we're seeing that amount in savings per family, yeah, 11,000 to 20,000.
• 36:17
  If we're really seeing that amount of savings per family, uh, that's gonna go a long way.
• 36:23
  And I encourage you, don't do upgrades on your house.
• 36:26
  Don't, you know, don't buy a car that you were thinking about buying because it's just it looks cool and you think that you'd look cool in a convertible.
• 36:34
  Don't do that with this money.
• 36:40
  If we're really getting an extra 11,000 to 20,000 per year, that's not just for this year, that's per year.
• 36:48
  If we're getting that amount of money that's freed up, can you imagine if that money was invested?
• 36:55
  And I'm not talking just a small portion of that.
• 36:58
  I'm talking all of that.
• 37:02
  If you budget in a way where you don't rely on this extra income, this extra money, and all of a sudden now you have it and you can begin to invest it.
• 37:13
  Oh my goodness.
• 37:16
  You're gonna do you're gonna be doing pretty good for yourself.
• 37:19
  Trust me on that.
• 37:21
  We'll talk more about that after the break.
• 37:23
  We are coming up on another break here.
• 37:24
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• 37:30
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• 37:44
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• 37:49
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• 39:56
  President Trump touted the biggest refund checks.
• 40:00
  Ever that are coming.
• 40:02
  And Hassett says that it's the biggest refund cycle ever, that there are massive checks that are coming.
• 40:10
  They're predicting 11,000 to 20,000 per family that's coming down the pike per year starting this year.
• 40:23
  So that all went into effect July 4th and the big beautiful bill.
• 40:27
  And though the economy has seen a slowdown, there are really positive signs.
• 40:35
  And there are things that are showing that there can be a uh a massive shift in the economy for the good.
• 40:45
  So there is what's called the startup surge.
• 40:49
  The American small business applications are at near record highs.
• 40:55
  So people are betting on themselves again.
• 41:08
  Especially with artificial intelligence.
• 41:10
  I was just having a conversation the other day with a brother of mine who is a programmer for AI.
• 41:18
  And he was talking about how it's becoming so efficient, and it's such if used properly, it's such an asset to business owners.
• 41:30
  He's like, people have no idea the gold mine that they're sitting on to be able to maximize their business and to usher in efficiency.
• 41:40
  But a lot of people aren't taking advantage of this because they just don't know, or they don't care, or they don't want to know.
• 41:47
  But there is a massive, massive um uptick in these startup surges.
• 41:57
  The applications, again, are at record highs.
• 41:59
  People are betting on themselves.
• 42:02
  Another component is deregulation within the Trump administration.
• 42:06
  They're deregulating a lot of these oppressive regulations that have absolutely crushed businesses.
• 42:14
  One of the ones that I was actually excited about was all the uh the dumb emission stuff, the emission standards on vehicles that have turned them into absolute piles of garbage.
• 42:29
  You know, everything now is is uh twin turbo, twin turbo engines, and while that's kind of cool, I guess, in theory, it's causing a lot of issues with these engines.
• 42:44
  Yeah, anybody who knows anything about engines knows the uh the tremendous amount of heat that's produced whenever you add a turbo uh to a gasoline engine.
• 42:56
  And uh these engines are a lot of these engines are just falling apart.
• 43:01
  The oil, I've uh complained about this a lot.
• 43:06
  It really bothers me how thin the oil is, and there's just zero margin for error at all, and the engines have to be engineered with no clearance whatsoever.
• 43:21
  I mean, the oil is paper thin, and that's causing a lot of problems.
• 43:26
  So the Trump administration is actually deregulating a lot of the emissions stuff, and the emissions stuff hasn't gotten us a whole lot more uh efficiency as far as fuel mileage.
• 43:39
  You know, I remember the good old days when you had a carburetor engine, you had a big old V8, big old heavy station wagon that those things could get 30 plus miles to a gallon.
• 43:53
  I mean, those old V8s were extremely efficient.
• 43:58
  I mean, they weren't, but they got good mileage.
• 44:03
  We have the technology to make things efficient, but the government keeps overregulating.
• 44:11
  And look at what it's done to the cost of vehicles, too.
• 44:15
  Not only did the engines break down much more often, but it also has driven up the cost of vehicles like a madman.
• 44:26
  All right, so another component, another thing that I think is really positive is the made in America momentum.
• 44:34
  You know, there's the hidden lightness of resuring things in America as manufacturing returns to the United States, which is driven by energy independence and tax incentives.
• 44:49
  We're seeing the revitalization of the rust belt into the tech and tool belt.
• 44:56
  So technology is absolutely creating and providing so many jobs, and this is good for America, and of course, there's the worker power.
• 45:12
  You know, pro-growth environment has led to high demand for skilled labor.
• 45:18
  You hear me talk about this often.
• 45:21
  Um electricians, plumbers, pipe fitters, welders, you know, on and on and on.
• 45:29
  These jobs are there are millions of positions that are open right now, very high paying positions, and the growth there is unlimited.
• 45:42
  It's there's no reason for people not to be making an absolute fortune because this growth is unlimited right now.
• 45:53
  So, you know, with the onshoring of all of these jobs, it actually has created another problem, and it's not one that this administration talks about enough, in my opinion.
• 46:07
  It's a good problem, but it's nonetheless, it's a problem.
• 46:11
  We don't have enough workers.
• 46:14
  We don't have enough laborers.
• 46:18
  So there's growing optimism here in the United States, and we I uh I could tell story after story after story of businesses who've invested into the trillions of dollars into the United States.
• 46:29
  Now, maybe that's where President Trump is getting his uh inflated trillions that are brought in by tariffs.
• 46:38
  I honestly think that that's the uh the mental gymnastics that he's doing to make that work, is that he has and truthfully has gotten companies to pledge trillions of dollars in uh uh money that's been pumped into our economy, into the U.S.
• 46:58
  economy over the next five years.
• 47:02
  That's a fact.
• 47:05
  But he's gonna say that would have never happened were it not for the tariffs, and so therefore, the quote unquote tariff revenue is into the trillions of dollars.
• 47:17
  We've brought trillions of dollars into the economy through tariffs.
• 47:23
  I think that that's what he means.
• 47:26
  Though he wants us to believe that the tariffs have increased the revenue in the form of uh taxes, that he's brought in trillions of dollars in taxes in tariff revenue.
• 47:41
  That's just not true.
• 47:42
  That is an absolute, it's not just a falsehood, it's an absolute lie.
• 47:48
  So uh there is good news, you know, and the good news is that these businesses are coming to America, and they really are, they truthfully are a lot of businesses.
• 48:03
  The technology sector is growing like crazy.
• 48:08
  Nuclear power.
• 48:10
  I've talked about this before.
• 48:12
  I'm actually investing in nuclear uh ETFs because I see the potential.
• 48:20
  Uh there is a massive demand for electricity in the United States.
• 48:25
  I mean, massive.
• 48:27
  We we're expanding the power grid like never seen before.
• 48:32
  And in order to do that, in order to meet the demand, we have to build nuclear facilities.
• 48:41
  So that sector is growing like crazy, and we're getting more and more energy independent.
• 48:52
  So yeah, lowering the cost of living tax and future optimism is really important too.
• 49:00
  And we got to look at these things.
• 49:02
  Energy as a tax cut.
• 49:05
  You know, we are an energy dominant society right now, and that is because of President Trump.
• 49:12
  There's no question about that.
• 49:16
  He put his money where his mouth is, and uh he really truly is drill, baby, drill, baby, drill baby.
• 49:25
  Um, lowering the price of a gallon of gas, and it is finally finally starting to come down.
• 49:32
  I just went on a thousand mile trip, two thousand round trip, and I couldn't believe I was filling my tank for uh at some points less than thirty dollars.
• 49:48
  That that hasn't happened for years.
• 49:51
  I've not been able to fill my tank for $30.
• 49:55
  I think at one point it was like 20 26 or $27.
• 50:00
  And my jaw about hit the ground.
• 50:01
  Because I live in Pennsylvania where the taxes are the gas taxes stupid high.
• 50:07
  But everywhere I went, in fact, the first place I got gas was just 45 minutes south of where I live, I crossed over the Maryland border and filled up my tank.
• 50:18
  I waited till I crossed the border because it's much cheaper.
• 50:23
  But at any rate, you know, the prices have finally come down.
• 50:29
  You know, gas is coming down.
• 50:32
  Uh heating bills are starting to creep down.
• 50:37
  And this is effectively a universal tax cut for every single American.
• 50:41
  Now I think that Trump has bragged about this a little bit uh too much or too early and kind of inflated the numbers, but we are finally starting to see the price of gasoline and heating, heating fuel come down.
• 50:56
  All right, then you have innovation versus inflation.
• 51:01
  American technology, so uh artificial intelligence and automation and advanced manufacturing, it's making goods cheaper.
• 51:11
  Yeah, people really genuinely fear artificial intelligence, but I'm telling you that the lightness is that it makes us more productive.
• 51:22
  You know, that eventually drives down prices for everyone.
• 51:25
  Now, I'm not going to talk in depth about artificial intelligence, especially that's not the scope of this episode here.
• 51:33
  Uh, but the bigger part is that it's it's just it's kind of above my head.
• 51:38
  But my brother was explaining it to me and and how the models are are developed and uh all the research that they've put into artificial intelligence.
• 51:47
  And he said, essentially, what they're gonna do, uh, we're we're getting to the point very soon in the next, I think he said within the next year, where we're gonna be able to put some prompts in and essentially shave a full work week off of our schedule.
• 52:11
  So in other words, instead of hiring somebody to put 40 hours of work in, we'll be able to put some prompts in and outsource that to artificial intelligence and maximize our business that way.
• 52:28
  You know, artificial intelligence is going to be able to pump in about 40 hours worth of 40 hours worth of work in a matter of minutes.
• 52:39
  And do it extremely efficiently.
• 52:41
  Do it as, and that's the goal is for artificial intelligence to do it as efficiently or more than what a human would do with a very few mistakes and uh where it doesn't degrade over time, because that's the problem right now is you know, once you reach a certain threshold of of how many hours artificial intelligence is shaving, there's a uh there's a certain form of degrading that that takes place.
• 53:11
  And so the models tend to become inefficient over time.
• 53:16
  So that's all gonna turn around.
• 53:19
  And uh that's why I say if businesses aren't jumping on board with artificial intelligence, they may find themselves going bankrupt.
• 53:30
  You know, when it comes to marketing and I mean, this the sky's the limit.
• 53:35
  So I think that this is the lightness in this businesses are getting more productive.
• 53:43
  Uh, we have small businesses that are starting up at greater rates than ever before.
• 53:49
  We also have, we don't talk about this very often, but the great wealth transfer.
• 53:54
  You know, over the next four years, there's a golden age that's possible uh if the refund cycle is paired with low energy costs.
• 54:07
  You know, this is the great wealth transfer.
• 54:12
  Where the opportunity to grow wealth, uh it's it's unlimited.
• 54:20
  And my fear is that a lot of people aren't going to believe this, or they think that it's hocus pocus, or that you know, well, you know, they can play the rich always get richer and the poor get poorer, and I'm just in that poor class, and I'm always going to be poor, and you know, they're sticking it to the man, you know, the hard working man, and we're the ones who get who get shafted.
• 54:42
  Well, yes and no.
• 54:46
  There are plenty, plenty, plenty, plenty of opportunities out there.
• 54:51
  And uh, we talk about this with we talk about this with our kids all the time.
• 54:55
  But I was just talking to a friend of mine, and I don't really have time to uh you know share this whole story here, but um, it's really cool.
• 55:03
  A very, very good friend of mine, a longtime friend.
• 55:06
  Uh, he bought a farm several years ago, and it's out in the middle of nowhere, and he was just gonna kind of do some homesteading on the side and teach his kids to piddle around and you know, so they did that.
• 55:19
  And uh this farm absolutely took off, and it is so stinking profitable.
• 55:27
  And it's like, you know, I I told him, I'm like, everything you touch turns to gold.
• 55:33
  And he's like, well, yeah, but we put a lot of work into it.
• 55:38
  He's like, we just do what we love, and the money follows.
• 55:44
  And it's such a good philosophy.
• 55:46
  And it's not, you know, it's not like he's crossing his fingers and just hoping that things work out.
• 55:51
  He knows how to maximize tax incentives.
• 55:54
  He knows how to, you know, like he does his research and he really finds out how to make this farm profitable, and he's doing quite quite well for himself.
• 56:04
  And his oldest, his oldest child is 17 years old and already has an incredible profitable bit profitable business on the farm.
• 56:15
  And is about to take it to the next level, and it's it's an apprenticeship that uh that he's doing, and it's just um he was telling me all this stuff, and I'm like, man, your son is gonna be very set for the rest of his life.
• 56:32
  To my knowledge, he's not going to college.
• 56:34
  He uh, you know, he's just he's gonna keep working on the farm and keep building this business, and it's incredible.
• 56:40
  It's wonderful.
• 56:41
  I love to see this kind of stuff, but these success stories are happening all over the place.
• 56:46
  You just have to see the opportunity.
• 56:48
  We live in America, we are not victims.
• 56:52
  We've got to get out of this victim mentality and realize when there's opportunity and there is opportunity all around us.
• 57:02
  So I do think that with the tax incentives that are coming down the pike that uh, you know, they're they're here.
• 57:08
  If we're really gonna be saved per family, 11,000 to 20,000 per year, uh, look out for a lot of good things coming down the pike because there are plenty of Americans who are gonna take advantage of that.
• 57:20
  Not everybody will, but for the ones who do, they're gonna invest in themselves and watch out, America, because a lot of good things are gonna come.
• 57:31
  You can find more out about my show and get all the latest podcasts if you go to the menu navigation bar at America Outloud.news under our shows or schedule.
• 57:39
  You'll be in the know.
• 57:41
  Uh there is a hidden lightness that shines inside of all of us.
• 57:45
  When there's so much darkness that envelops the world, remember that it doesn't take much light to expose that darkness and to ultimately inspire other people.
• 57:53
  Join me in being a light.