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Mar 16 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• 0:00
  Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the Closing Market Report. It is the March 2026. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Ben Brown.
• 0:13
  He's at the University of Missouri and with extension there. Kurt Kimmel is out of the office for the afternoon. We'll turn our attention to some of the agricultural news for the area, and then we'll discuss as we close out our time together the weather across the planet. We'll do that with Mark Russo at Everstream Analytics on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org.
• 0:41
  That's illag.org. Todd Gleason services are made available to W I L L by University of Illinois Extension. May corn for the day settled at $4.54 down 13 and a quarter cents. July at $4.65 and 3 quarters, 12 and a half lower. And December, $4.80, 11 and a half cents lower for the day.
• 1:04
  May soybeans, down the limit, 70¢ lower, settled at $11.55 and a quarter July following suit down 70 that's the limit move again at $11.67 and a half and new crop November beans down forty and three quarters of a cent at $11.20 and 3 quarters of a cent bean meal at $3.12 20 down $10.50. The bean oil at $63.94 $3.50 lower. Weed futures soft red down 16 and a half at $5.97 at a quarter in the May. July at $6.00 7 and 3 quarters down sixteen and three quarters from the hard red July at $6.30 and a half cents, down 13 and a quarter. Live cattle futures up $2.92 and a half cents to finish there at $2.31 87 and a half feeder cattle trading at $3.45 55 up $6 and 37 and a half cents per 100 pounds at the end of the day, and lean hog settled one zero seven twenty five down 12 and a half cents.
• 2:02
  Crude oil $4.90 lower at $93.81 a barrel. Diesel fuel or heating oil down thirteen and three tenths of a cent to three point five nine and four tenths of a cent per gallon and the wholesale price of gasoline today down two and eight tenths of a cent at two point nine six and two tenths of a cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average now down a rather up 431 points for the day. Ben Brown, agricultural economist at the University of Missouri and with extension there now joins us to take up the marketplace and talk about commodity flow across the planet. Hi, Ben.
• 2:38
  Thank you for being with us. It's been a bit since you and I have talked to we appreciate you taking some time with us again today. Let's talk about the move in the market. We don't usually do that with you. But because things changed over the weekend, I want to know what you think about these big swings.
• 2:58
  First huge swings up last week, and the last couple of weeks at $2 actually from the bottom of the range, and now sharply lower on a Monday. What what is happening in this marketplace for beans?
• 3:12
  Ben Brown: So I think we're seeing some broad money flow across the entire complex, all all commodities. I'll start here with soybeans, but I'm gonna pull in some other things, other commodities as well. So, you know, on the soybean side, we got some news over the weekend that was really kind of twofold. First, it was mentioned that in negotiations with US and Chinese negotiators in France that China might be interested in buying other non soybean commodities from The US, and so I think that sent off a little bit of a of a ripple through the the sector saying, hey, we might actually see China being interested in other products, not just soybeans, and so maybe, you know, switching some of the commitments that they had committed, specifically the rumor of another 8,000,000 metric tons of soybeans, maybe shifting those to other commodities. So that sent kinda the ripples to the market.
• 4:11
  Then the next part of this was president Trump announcing that he may not meet with president Xi in April like it's originally planned, and so that kinda sent a bearish tint to to the markets, the soybean markets. But but certainly, you know, soybeans are down, you know, 50¢ at the time we're recording this in the nearby month, but soybean oil is also quite a bit down and it's reacting to some extent to the drop that we've seen in crude oil futures,
• 4:41
  Todd Gleason: you
• 4:41
  Ben Brown: know, here to start this week as well. Again, think just broader shift out of some of these commodities to other parts of the market, maybe even reassuring some money to get it out of some of these volatile moves. So a lot of things happening in the commodity space. This has been one of those questions that we keep getting asked over and over again is like where does the direction go in these markets. Our position and maybe my position has been that soybeans have been overvalued here for for several weeks, and, you know, eventually, you know, fundamentals would kick back in.
• 5:18
  The question was when would that happen? And and so as a producer, you just have to recognize there's a lot of downside risk to this soybean complex. But you know, we had quite a run to the upside on soybeans and so an opportunity to sell some old crop soybeans, whatever was left, and and even potentially get some new crop sales on the books as well.
• 5:42
  Todd Gleason: Okay. So how much do you think they ought to be considering if they haven't gotten started yet?
• 5:47
  Ben Brown: Well, that's that's unique to individual each individual farm based on, you know, their financial needs or whatever, but I would certainly suggest that at these price levels people need to have started something in this forward marketing. Would provide opportunities to market soybeans at a profit and when that's the case, know, always put some sales on the books.
• 6:07
  Todd Gleason: Let's talk about the broader fundamentals in this marketplace. I take it you're still looking at a very large set of crops, not only here in The United States, but across the planet.
• 6:19
  Ben Brown: That is correct.
• 6:20
  Todd Gleason: Because of that set of fundamentals, producers need to consider going forward in covering something for the 2026 year, '27, and old crop two if they have that left. But how do you deal with acreage and any changes that might take place? We're only, you know, half a month away from USDA's grain stocks and prospective plantings reports. They've been surveying producers. Do you think this set of numbers will be a good set for what farmers are expected to put into the field this spring?
• 7:04
  Ben Brown: Well, to some extent, you know, report always gets picked apart and I just responded, it is a point estimate at a period of time and it's going to be wrong regardless. Just we never know what we're starting with, and so in some ways that's what this is meant to do is to kind of get an expectation of what producers are thinking. But the markets will respond, we'll have weather impacts, you know, we'll have other things that come into play as well, and producers will have the opportunity in some parts of the country to adjust based on those market signals and based on weather patterns and things like that. Of course, this year we have the added, you know, uncertainty of, you know, increasing fertilizer prices, the changes that we've seen in prices all since, you know, are basically during USDA collecting the survey responses. So people are gonna pick it apart as, you know, this is what USDA said back at the Outlook Forum.
• 7:59
  This is what producers told them in March, and so the conflict in Iran must have had this impact. And that's not accurate because of the way these are all calculated, but I would certainly say it's just a point estimate at a period of time of what producers thought they were gonna do in early March. Everything will change from that, but the markets will have an opportunity to respond to it as well. And so, could we see some changes? Absolutely.
• 8:23
  How much changes? Well, it kind of depends on where you're starting from. If you're at 98,000,000 acres of corn and producers say they're going to plant 96, some people might say, well, you know, was a 2,000,000 acre shift. But if you're starting at 96 and your expectation is 96,000,000 acres and it comes in at 96, well then some people might say, well there was no change at all. So it's really a moving target based on what each individual thinks the starting point is and what that is of course is everybody's guess and that's always the big argument.
• 8:54
  But history has proven that the March perspective plannings report has value. It has, you know, some validity to help inform the markets, but, you know, does correlate with, you know, what ends up happening by the time we get all the way to next January? History would say it's a good indicator, but there's certainly things that could change.
• 9:15
  Todd Gleason: Can I ask you about some things that, economic adviser to the president, Kevin Hassett, said yesterday on Face the Nation as it was related to the Iran war, particularly because we're talking at this point about some of the changes that could come in acreage, maybe, if if fertilizer prices don't move? In it, he suggested that the administration was, working, to maybe find new sources or provide new ways, I think, for Morocco and Venezuela to provide more fertilizer into The United States. I don't know whether you've all talked about that very much and whether that's a possibility. And he also didn't quite get there with 45 z but mentioned jet fuel. He didn't sustain, of course, sustainable aviation fuel, but I'm wondering whether there might be some things in the offing there that would be moving soybean oil.
• 10:15
  Ben Brown: So I guess for the first part you're asking me, does any of that have an impact on fertilizer prices? Is that the first question? Yes. Okay. So my answer there is minimal, if if any.
• 10:25
  So especially for Venezuela, you know, just not a huge market, so it's not gonna be the biggest driver of prices, but certainly could help. Right? All these little pieces, if you get enough little pieces, it does it does help. The Morocco thing or alleviating some tariffs on Morocco would be another step to help alleviate prices, but it's probably going to get overshadowed by just some of the global volatility and uncertainty in the fertilizer market. And so, in the short run, probably very little change or producers are going see very little change from the Venezuela in action and if the Morocco and tariffs are alleviated, relatively little change just based on the way the market structure is.
• 11:04
  Now the second part about the 45Z and how soybean oil might relate to the fuel, you know, the big thing here is like still uncertain how how all of that actually plays through to both the producers of renewable fuel and then also the credits that get passed. If if any of that gets passed on on to producers. And so I think the market is is maybe just over swumed with with all the different storylines and all the different implications that could happen there. And so I'm not sure that's a necessarily a big driver of the soybean oil market either. It's just like, you know, the broader sector is seeing a little bit of money flow out and and of course, you know, soybean oil and its connection to crude oil is is, you know, I think the big story on that market too.
• 11:52
  Todd Gleason: And finally, anything on crush we should know about or exports for corn kind of usage areas?
• 11:57
  Ben Brown: Well, you know, I I do think that these are two categories that probably have the potential to move in opposite directions on the fundamental USDA balance sheets. Of course, you know, the April USDA balance sheet will incorporate an update of grain stocks and it'll up, you know, it'll, or at least on the old crop balance sheet. And then USDA doesn't do their first new crop balance sheet until May. And so the perspective planning report that comes out at the March here, that's where it comes through. But for those grain stocks, ending grain stocks for March 1, might provide USDA the opportunity to go to look at some of these usage categories that, in my opinion, could move in opposite direction.
• 12:41
  So give you an example, I think the corn export number could still go higher and if the grain stocks number comes in light, relative to expectations, you could see USDA saying, okay, yes, we we have justification now in grain stocks, export inspections for corn have been strong, let's move that high. The reverse is also true on the ethanol side. If grain stocks come in a little heavy compared to expectations, think USDA then has the justification to say, hey, we've been hearing and we know that, the corn utilization and the efficiency within ethanol plants has increased. And so, you know, our our assumption of how many bushels are being used to produce this amount of ethanol is maybe, you know, a little bit inaccurate, and we've overestimated how much corn has been used so far, and so we're gonna lower that corn for ethanol category. They could do both.
• 13:31
  They could increase exports and decrease corn used for ethanol and keep that index stocks number flat, But I think it'll I think they'll look at the grain stocks number from March 1 to help influence, you know, the magnitude of those.
• 13:44
  Todd Gleason: Hey. Thanks much. We appreciate it, Ben.
• 13:46
  Ben Brown: Yep. Thanks, Todd.
• 13:47
  Todd Gleason: That's Ben Brown, agricultural economist at the University of Missouri and with Missouri Extension. In today's agricultural news, Congresswoman Nikki Budzinski says biomanufacturing could be a $200,000,000,000 industry in Central Illinois. Speaking to a packed room at a biomanufacturing summit, Podzinski said the emerging sector could be a lifeline to local farmers. Central Illinois secured more than $50,000,000 in federal funding in 2024 to support the growing industry. That money is funding research at the Fermentation and Agricultural Biomanufacturing Tech Hub right here on the Urbana Champaign campus of the University of Illinois.
• 14:47
  A new initiative between agribusiness giant Archer Daniels Midland and AFT or the American Farmland Trust will provide half $1,000,000 to support farmers in the Midwest. The funding aims to help farmers in Illinois and five other states build resilience. AFT President and CEO John Piatti says the program will increase access to grant funding and offer resources for learning environmental best practices and succession planning. We're in a situation where approximately 300,000,000 acres of America's farmland is going to be in transition over the next decade or so due simply to demographic issues. Piatte says the AFT will also use the funding to offer awards that can be used for everything from business planning to purchasing land.
• 15:35
  Let's return now to the University of Illinois where an ag tech company has been carrying out research and will compete in a national competition later this year. Abigail Botar has more.
• 15:47
  Abigail Bottar: C16 Biosciences won a regional pitch competition at the AgTech Summit. Co founder David Heller says the startup creates fats and oils from yeast that can be used in the food, beauty and personal care industries.
• 15:58
  David Heller: We can create oils from yeast in scale up fermentations that are not reliant on tropical agriculture and can scale vertically very efficiently.
• 16:07
  Abigail Bottar: Heller says the company's first commercial ingredient is being used in skin care and cosmetic products across the globe. He says he's excited for the platform the StartUp World Cup will give the company. The company is heading to the StartUp World Cup in San Francisco this November to compete for a $1,000,000 investment. I'm Adgiel Botar, IPM News.
• 16:25
  Todd Gleason: And finally today, there's been much coverage given to year round E15 sales, sustainable aviation fuel, and animal feed from biofuels. But at a time when more crop demand is sorely needed, some novel ideas are being added to the mix too. One of them came recently from the American Soybean Association president Scott Metzger. He made these comments at a senate ag hearing about PFAS polluters in firefighting foams.
• 16:53
  Scott Metzger: Widespread use of soy foam will ensure firefighters like my son, Dalton, will no longer have to worry about regular PFAS exposure while on the job.
• 17:02
  Todd Gleason: Congress continues to back alternative uses of crops through USDA's bile preferred program, but bigger gains are still seen in year round E15 45Z clean fuel credits and robust RFSRVO roles. And that's a look at today's Agricultural News. You're listening to the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world. Our theme music is written, performed, produced in courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer, Tim Gleason.
• 17:35
  Don't forget to visit our website at willag.org, though you'll find the latest editions of the Closing Market Report and Commodity Week. Just click and play from the website or hit the podcast tab. And once you're there, you'll find a way to subscribe in the players to the podcast, or you could just open your favorite podcast player and ask for the Closing Market Report or Commodity Week by name. You can do that on your home devices as well. It's all part of the service that comes to you from Illinois Public Media online at willag.org.
• 18:17
  On this Monday, let's turn our attention to the global growing regions. We'll start here in the Midwest with Mark Caruso at Everstream Analytics. Hi, Mark. Thanks for being with us. Yesterday was an interesting day in my part of the world.
• 18:32
  Temperatures in the mid to upper sixties, low seventies, I suppose, a few places. A huge storm came through last night. It's the same one that dumped just an incredible amount of snow, in parts of Wisconsin and places in the Great Lakes. But here, a lot of tornadoes or just high winds, cold front behind it, and we've just been dropping in temperature all day long. And that will continue through the evening hours till we get, you know, from this upper sixties yesterday to, you know, the mid teens.
• 19:08
  Tonight. How long will that cold stay with us, I think, is my first question, and then maybe you can come back and tell me about the storm itself.
• 19:16
  Mark Russo: Yeah, Todd. Certainly, a very noteworthy and and and extreme system here. And with the cold that's coming in behind the front, these colder than normal temperatures and kind of pure arctic cold again, it doesn't last very long here across the Midwest. In fact, by later on this week, temperatures will return to warmer than normal levels with highs climbing back into the 60s and 70s, similar to what we saw here yesterday and back late last week. As of now, we at least as the warmth returns, we don't see any other, you know, big storm systems or severe weather events on the way with the return of milder air.
• 20:00
  Todd Gleason: Okay. And then if you turn your attention to some of the growing regions, I'm particularly concerned about the hard red winter wheat growing areas. Can you tell me what's happening there?
• 20:09
  Mark Russo: Yeah. That area saw did not see much rain here with this system that moved through. That's been the pattern here of late. Actually, these storm systems, where we've had several in recent weeks across the Central US, they've been very progressive. And they basically failed to produce any widespread meaningful rains across the plains hard red winter wheat belt.
• 20:34
  And that looks to continue here with a drier than normal pattern. Also, turning warmer than normal there as well, again, by the middle of this week. And in fact, from midweek this week to midweek next week could be some records being set again across areas of the plains hard red winter wheat belt. Then finally, windy conditions at times. So that combination will continue to draw down soil moisture and as the hard red crop develops here, certainly an increase in stress and need for more rainfall and soil moisture improvement.
• 21:08
  Todd Gleason: Anything out of South America that we should be watching?
• 21:11
  Mark Russo: It's an improving situation right now, as it's been here lately, but one of the last areas in Argentina to see rain is Buenos Aires Province, and they start to get rains over the weekend. A lot more is on the way, so that's proving the situation for late soybean development. Could cause some sporadic delays in early corn harvesting, but that's not of any kind of issue. And right now in Brazil, also, not seeing any kind of large scale or long duration dry patterns that would affect, late developing soybeans or newly planted safrinha corn.
• 21:44
  Todd Gleason: Hey. Thanks much. We appreciate it. We'll talk with you again next week.
• 21:47
  Mark Russo: You're welcome, Todd. Thanks for having me.
• 21:49
  Todd Gleason: It's always a pleasure. That, of course, is Mark Russo. He is with Avastream Analytics, joined us on this Monday edition of the Closing Market Report. We came to you from Illinois Public Media, public radio for the farming world, online on demand at willag.org, willag.org. Two other websites that I think you should visit regularly.
• 22:11
  You'll see information from them on our site but they're worth going to directly. Both of them are inside the PharmDoc websites PharmDoc, PharmDoc Daily. Course Farm Doc is at farmdocdaily.illinois.edu The Ag Economist bring you information there and then the crop scientists have their website tucked into it. It's under sections on the Farm Doc site and field crop production and you'll find crop central there so check that out again go to farmdocdaily.illinois.edu it's sections at the top of the page and then field crops and you'll find the crop central or field crop production resources from the crop scientist right here on the U of I campus. Really important to visit that as we're headed into the growing season for twenty twenty six twenty twenty seven.
• 23:05
  I'm University of Illinois Extinction's Todd Gleason.