Latest / The Scout and The Speculator / AFL Preview Episode 6 - Surprise Saguaros

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AFL Preview Episode 6 - Surprise Saguaros · The Scout and The Speculator

• Jaba: Hello everybody, welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator Podcast. I think you all know the drill by now. This is Will Jarvis, also known as Jabba Cards, joined by my co-host Jeremy Brown of Perfect Game Baseball, more importantly known as JGB underscore cards underscore. ⁓ as always brought to you by Prospect Pulse, prospectpulse v1.com, the best place for all of your Bowman researching, collecting, ⁓ analyzing needs, just a great resource. We use it every day. And again, you know, we we use it to put together our notes for these episodes, ⁓ on pricing and ⁓ you know, figuring out what product everything's in. So we got some deep pulls here. We got our last episode of ⁓ our six-part AFL preview series. We got our last team today. ⁓ underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: It is the Surprise Seguaros. pretty fun name there. I think ⁓ the Glendale Desert Dogs is my favorite name. But ⁓ this is a good one too, as they all are. ⁓ unfortunately, not gonna lie, this probably is the worst team we're looking at. ⁓ I probably shouldn't say that this early in the podcast. ⁓ there are some sleepers, but Man, looking at this list right now we got two guys over ten bucks. One of ⁓ is at ten dollars and seventy cents, so really really sneaking in there. ⁓ underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Jaba: I'm honestly surprised by the number one guy and I'll let you tell everyone who the top guy is for the Segueros, at least. underscore_underscore_: I mean there's th there's just a lot of surprises on surprise. Some of these names that I'm just seeing as I pull up like their lists. We got some deep pulls. We got Frank Mazakato, the seventh overall pick from twenty twenty one here. ⁓ number one though is Wellbin Francisca, who continues to kind of trudge forward. I feel like back in twenty three he was a chaser chaser name. I don't know if that's correct English. ⁓ made it up to double A this year though. Like very small sample size, but Did hit a home run. ⁓ hit seventeen of them in high A this year, which is a good thing. Like, I don't think he had ever really shown that type of power. He had three seven three in the three years prior. And obviously being a DSL guy, he's still only twenty. He turned twenty at the beginning of the year. So definitely on pace as far as it goes with age, ⁓ middle infield prospect. He is at a thirty dollar and forty cent at a certain point. I start to wonder if it's because people just in it now weren't around in twenty twenty three. I doubt that's the reason, but I always like to think in my head that that might be a reason. known for bat to ball in speed, I believe, kinda coming through. So that power has been nice to see. He did have ⁓ sixteen bags this year, forty five last year, so we didn't see as much speed, but we saw more power and I think we're always gonna take that trade off in the Bowman world. So kind of a fun one. Really didn't sell out all that much more for power to ⁓ give up some hit tool for Juice. So am surprised that it's a th north of a thirty dollar base auto, but overall like solid year for Wellbin. And I think that's what a lot of people have kind of been waiting for from him. Jaba: Yeah, and you know, I think on top of that I'm just reading a write up now. Says, you know, I guess at least when he signed he was listed at five eight, now he's six feet. ⁓ you know, probably grown more than you would think, which is obviously a good thing. ⁓ switch hitter, which is fun. you know, like you said, really, really good year. ⁓ just doesn't underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: For whatever reason it just doesn't get me that excited and you know, I I can't say it's the Cleveland market because I love Junicer Caceris and he has a strong market and you know I think the Guardians do have a lot of fans. I just don't know what it is. It it it just feels like just another guy to me. But I think that he does have the potential to kind of make me look stupid for saying that. He is still twenty. ⁓ you know, really good year, injury shortened year. But you know, really outside of a bad 2025, he's just been really, really solid player and obviously the power jumped up, the steals dialed back, but that was probably just, you know, an injury shortened year. I really think my main concern with him is just, you know, the amount of games he's playing. I won't lie and say I know what the injuries have been, but obviously, you know, you'd prefer if he was out there a bit more. But yeah, he's a solid name at thirty. I'm not buying any of ⁓ but ⁓ he's a name I'm gonna watch at the very least. underscore_underscore_: No. Why not? Jaba: From there we dip to a guy who was a hugely popular sleeper pick in twenty twenty five Bowman. He quickly priced out of the sleeper range. ⁓ you know, I don't remember exactly where he was, but he was at least a thirty dollar base auto. That is a rune Escobar, five foot nine, one hundred eighty pounds second baseman. underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Jaba: ⁓ born on January first, 2005. So he's turned 22 going into next season. 2025, he kind of stormed onto the scene. ⁓ Rookie League in 24. He had a 976 OPS, so he was kind of coming in hot. ⁓ came out, played really well in single A, 69 games, 829 OPS, 11 homers, and 10 Steals. Just a middle infield type who does a little bit of everything. went up to high A, held his own, 46. games 717 OPS. We saw the power take a step back, but the Steels stepped up a little. This year was a nightmare for him. you know, hundred and thirty two games at double A Reading. And again, he w he was twenty one all year, so pretty age appropriate, if not young, for the level. ⁓ just not what we had hoped for. Six seventy nine OPS, twelve homers, twenty seven steals. I will say the K rate is pretty firmly under twenty percent, ⁓ which you love to see. He walks a lot. It's just you know, he just really didn't do that well, you know, on balls and play. He hit two thirty. I know he closed the year out pretty hot. I'm looking at the game logs now. He had in his last f underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: five games of the year he hit four doubles and three homers. ⁓ so that's you know, a nice way to wrap things up. Kinda put a bow on th on ⁓ on a underwhelming season. you know, I said in the last episode with Bryce Raynor, you know, we kind of become conditioned where it's like we see a guy at a price and then he falls. I I think it's just human instinct that if he starts underscore_underscore_: What you like to see? Jaba: you know, showing up on people's Twitter or Instagram timelines, I think we'll say, ⁓ wow, well, you know, I remember him being a thirty dollar auto, now he's ten and he's doing something good. You know, he should be at least twenty. and I think that that's fair. I I think that that is something he could do. Again, he's very not very young, but he's young. ⁓ I'm sure he'll repeat double A next year as a twenty two year old. But underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: You know, I th I I think there's time and, you know, you can be patient with him. I'm definitely not selling anything of ⁓ especially because I think if you own ⁓ you own ⁓ for a lot more than ten bucks. ⁓ zero reason to kinda cut your losses and walk away. ⁓ I think underscore_underscore_: Not at that price. Jaba: it's fair and smart to have lower expectations, and be a little disappointed, but I don't think, you know, the Arun Escobar story is over yet. And, you know, he's maybe the most recognizable bat on this team. I mean it's really honestly Dante Nori probably is, but I think Escobar is probably the guy who could grow here. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: And I'm I'm sorry to beat that to death a lot. There's just not a lot of other guys to talk about. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. moving on. Onward and forward. ⁓ yeah, somebody who bought an Everyone Escobar True Blue this offseason at like a hundred bucks and see them doing fifty bucks right now. Like I need a little something. ⁓ Justin Lampkin was really good this year. He was I I wanna I don't want I don't mean this in the worst way, but he was a bottom dweller in draft with his ⁓ base autos like being sub five dollars. ⁓ they're up. Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: To nine dollars now, but they were regularly twenty, twenty-five bucks when he was moving and grooving this year. He had a really good year. Got hurt. Good to see him on this roster, meaning he's back to throwing. I'll be curious to see if he actually shows up in Arizona. But like got a promotion pretty quick. Threw six games in high A. Got to double A. Was I mean, where'd he come out of A and ⁓ I believe. So he was already like a an SEC caliber arm. Jaba: Yeah. And ⁓ underscore_underscore_: On the year, thirty-nine innings, fifty-three strikeouts, a one sixty-eight against. Like it was too easy for him. Even with the quote quote unquote inflated ERA of almost a four at double A, eleven innings, he had a two hundred against, three walks, fifteen fifteen Ks, that's just a a ⁓ result of balls put being put in play, falling. Falling, not hitting the defender's gloves. ⁓ at this price, I think people kind of forgot about him, right? Like He is a good arm. It's ⁓ good breaking ball, secondaries. A buddy saw him throw against I think it was Biloxi that was like a loaded Brewers team at the beginning of the year. And he like carved up everybody. Like er the who's who in that orc was on that team. And he was at the game, texting me and I'm like, all right, Paching, eBay, true blue, buy it thirty bucks. I knew somebody with an orange, buy the orange. Like, just right off that, knowing like he's better than what he was showing. Jaba: Yeah, that was like the crazy one. underscore_underscore_: Price wise, it was like an easy buy. And then that true blue I think got up to like a hundred and fifty dollars. ⁓ Royals color match, like Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, I I I mean the numbers are just so good, you know. I think obviously it doesn't help that he kinda disappeared for a good chunk of the season. And, you know, it's not like the MLB teams where the second a guy goes down, you know, you kinda know exactly what's wrong and what a timeline looks like. ⁓ you know, we couldn't find anything. underscore_underscore_: Right. Jaba: You know, I remember hearing someone say that he had blown his arm out. Obviously not the case. which is great, of course. but yeah, I mean two things stand out to me with him. ⁓ you know, when I see these SEC pitchers, I usually think that they're gonna be a little older, but he doesn't turn twenty-three until next June. So he's not too old. He's six four, two ten. You know, I I think really the only negative thing you can say about him is he kind of profiles as one of those back of the rotation horses. You know, he doesn't throw that hard. And, you know, he's just kind of got the advanced command and repertoire where it's like Anthony Ianson, where even though he doesn't throw hard, he can just dice guys up in the low minors because they're not used to seeing guys that can throw four or five pitches well. But yeah, I think Lam can underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Jaba: You know, he just pitched well. It's just he didn't pitch enough. I think the Royals are a fine organization for the hobby. I mean I was gonna say that they're bad, but I mean Angevil Gomez is the best player in Chrome. you know, people love Churio, people love David Shields. lot of that's a that's a pair of nice lefties, but yeah, I like Lamkin, I think he's too cheap and yeah, I mean that's really the only one remaining that I have much to say about if you want it Dante and Ori underscore_underscore_: Yeah, y you touched on Dante Nori, he definitely had a moment during the WBC, right? Like his stuff went through the roof. Like insane. It matched the performance in the WBC, which was also insane. He's sub ten dollars. And then we got just a glut of ⁓ sub five dollar. We got twenty we got we we're going all the way from twenty one. I think we have every year except twenty twenty five. So we 21, 22, 23, 24, and 26. Bowman autos represented here. So here I I love Hero Wyatt. I've known him since he was 14. Awesome kid. It's electric stuff when he's in the zone and harnessing it. ⁓ it's really cheap. He's a funky arm slot, really good slider, high school kid out of Connecticut. ⁓ was doing well this year until he got hurt ultimately. ⁓ 24 strikeouts, 28 innings, 16 walks. Had a rough start to the year, but he really was able to dial it in, which was always good to see. ⁓ Calvin Ziegler, Canadian, came out early. He's a Met. He can be had pretty cheap. Kading Hedinger is a twenty six Bowman guy. Cole Mathis had his moment where a three dollar auto, I don't think, is representative of what he was within the market this year. He's a Met kid, ten home runs, hit Jaba: I don't think he even played a game as a Matt. underscore_underscore_: Yeah, hit two thirty eight this year, hundred and eighty nine at bad, so he hasn't played much at all. He made it up to high A in Brooklyn, so once they got him he played seven games. So Jaba: Yeah, he got activated September second, 'cause we got him for Peterson in like mid to late June and he was just dead on arrival. ⁓ underscore_underscore_: Yeah. During his A ball run though, he hit seven home runs, hit almost three hundred over fourteen game stretch. But even then it's like, all right, he's kind of like this twenty-two, twenty-three year old beating up on A ball pitching. So that was kind of like a get ⁓ get out quick kind of guy. So ⁓ Casey Cook, UNC kid, Boston Barrow, high school kid out of SoCow with the Mets now. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. underscore_underscore_: Steven Zobac is on the Royals top 30, but he's 25 in double A. Austin Charles is a tool shed still. ⁓ I know some people are waiting for him to just kind of figure it out. He kind of did that this year. He's six foot five, twenty two years old. Still a shortstop, hit three, two eighty five, which I want to say is his best year to date as a pro. It is seven home runs. ⁓ there's tools there. Doesn't strike out much, which is a good thing. 45 games, 36 strikeouts. 16 walks. ⁓ that just feels like a better performance in a two dollar base auto. He is out of 23 drafts, so maybe people just don't even have him on the radar. And then Frank Mazakato. ⁓ seventh overall pick back in 2021. He has a sub $2 base auto right now. Believe he's got an eight ERA this year. Coming out of high school, I saw him throw. He was a command first guy over stuff. ⁓ hasn't really thrown as such. Seventy one innings, he had seventy-two walks to ninety-seven strikeouts. Like, that's not what he was in high school. He was scraping into the low nineties with a hammer curveball and just dicing kids in the northeast, as you'd expect. ⁓ would be l would love to see him regain form and even have the smallest bit of a pulse again. But I'm gonna kick it over to you. I just gave a quick crash course. Anyone that's up note, let's hear about him. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, I mean I think that that covers it. I think, you know, like you said, Hero Wyatt is probably the only interesting arm there. ⁓ I mean Mazakato, even with the pedigree ⁓ and draft capital, it's just those walk numbers are scary and he got drafted five years ago. I'll give a quick run through on the Mets just because It's stuff I'm familiar with. ⁓ Ziegler, twenty twenty-one draft. He was one of those young Canadian kids. Basically was just one of those guys where he, you know, pitches three innings a year, falls off the face of the earth. he's the type where he strikes out two guys an inning, but he also walks at least one an inning. I mean, I'm looking at his minor league career, and again, he got drafted in twenty one, he's thrown sixty-seven professional innings, ⁓ 103 K's, but sixty-one. Walks. and you know, that's the kind of stuff that'll play when it's like, ⁓ okay, well, he's 19. He's 23 now. ⁓ turns twenty-four in like two weeks. ⁓ just probably not gonna not gonna happen. I mean, clearly a talented arm. ⁓ it's just tough with those injuries. ⁓ you know, he made one one-inning appearance in double-A, but meaningfully he's only really through high A. ⁓ you know, there's clearly something in the arm. It's just He's gonna be twenty four and he's thrown sixty seven pro innings in six years or five years. ⁓ Boston Barrow. ⁓ basically like the AJ Ewing mold of an older prep hitter, ⁓ kinda hit tool first athlete. ⁓ this is like the twenty-fifth percentile outcome of that, while Ewing is kinda the ninety-ninth percentile ⁓ of drafting that kind of guy. ⁓ you know, he he's been okay. He he's just, you know, really no juice. He's been hurt a lot. underscore_underscore_: Mm. Right. Jaba: And he's twenty two now. ⁓ so just nothing there. yeah, that's you know, col I I I think Cole Mathis is the one guy who could blow up. You know, like you said, yeah, he's twenty three. ⁓ former two way guy at college at Charleston, go Cougars. second rounder. ⁓ didn't like that. ⁓ but ⁓ underscore_underscore_: Auto only too. Auto only kid. For what that's worth. Wow. Hmm. Jaba: You know, like you said, barely played this year when he did, showcased real power, real speed, ten homers, eight steals, and a hundred and eighty nine at bats. if he can stay healthy, you know, he's a Met now. People know about him because he was the headliner, quote unquote, in a trade for David Peterson. It was one for one. But I think people were pretty excited to get anything for David Peterson. I had an interaction with him at spring training a couple of years ago and he he was he was being really rude to people. And I was like, Dude, you're David Peterson like, come on. ⁓ so I don't like David Peterson. I was thrilled to get Cole Mathis in. obviously disappointing he didn't play, but I could see him being a guy who ⁓ gets some hype here, you know, just being a Met. He's definitely the best Met at Fall League, which is ⁓ you know, not really saying much. But ⁓ underscore_underscore_: Hm. Jaba: You know, I think of all the cheap options, that's gonna be my guy. And it's definitely not because I went on eBay and bought a bunch of his stuff the night he got traded to the Mets. so yeah. ⁓ I mean for me that wraps up the ⁓ Segueros. A lot of unpleasant surprises on this ⁓ on this checklist. ⁓ just not a good team. I think it's you know underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Ha ha ha. Jaba: I don't have the list of non Bowman guys in front of me, so maybe, you know, there's some there's some helping hands there, but that that roster, I mean, going back to the Glendale Desert Dogs, where, you know, the tenth most expensive autograph was Owen Carey. I I mean, i it's there's definitely some discrepancies here. ⁓ I won't beat it to death anymore. ⁓ JGB, you got anything for us? underscore_underscore_: I'm looking at the rosters. Let me find somebody else that we can Jaba: We we need some sort of positive because I I I hate being negative, it's just this roster made it hard. While Jeremy Lux. Okay. Come on. ⁓ yeah. Yeah, Zion Rose first what was he, the fifth pick, fourth pick, sixth pick? underscore_underscore_: find it. Let's find it. Let's find it. Let's find it. Hold on. Bruin Agbayani. ⁓ this is a team with whatchamacallit too. Zion Rose, who's gonna be a main chase in Bowman. ⁓ sixth, I believe. I I wanna say sixth pick right after Curiel at five. So that's a fun one. Jaba: Okay. Okay, so you're getting talent there. Bruin Agbayani, as I said to Jeremy yesterday, father is like a Mets folk hero. You I kinda grew up going a Shea after he had retired. And I told Jeremy yesterday I just remember always being shocked at how many jerseys ⁓ I would see of his. ⁓ so people like him. The name is known in the families and, you know, okay profile. He was also hurt a lot after he got traded to the Mets. But, you know, if he does get Bowman, which I would imagine he does, just given like the lineage and kind of especially now that he's a Met, right? You know, it's kinda like the ⁓ Caden Kent light. ⁓ you know. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: I could see that getting juiced too, but this is all relative, you know. underscore_underscore_: I saw him in high school. I saw him in high school. Him and ⁓ him and Xavier Nayans I saw for the first time together out west with Trotsky Baseball at fourteen. And it's like, ⁓ you guys are both pretty damn good. So Jaba: Yeah. N nineteen shortstop from Hawaii, sixth rounder and twenty-five, six ninety-six OPS this year, but only had fifty-three at bats. ⁓ you know, just kinda hard to judge. I will say, after the twins drafted him, they stuck him in right right ⁓ in right in single A. They gave him the Dax Kilby. Results were not Dax Kilby esque, but You know, he's nineteen, he'll be twenty at the end of spring training next year. I mean twenty starting off in single A if he can stay healthy, you know, he's not behind the eight ball by any means. You know, he's in a good spot there and there are a lot of reasons why he could quickly become a ⁓ fan favorite kind of for Mets collectors, at least older than me. underscore_underscore_: Yep. He was a he was an all American for us as well as a catcher. Like in high school, so things change, but Jaba: Do you think that the Hawaii guys have more developmental runway? I know with some like these northern Canadian guys, I'm like, ⁓ you know, who knows what the competition was like. Do you think that a guy from Hawaii has more room or underscore_underscore_: Maybe to a degree, but like I mean, Bruin's also not your typical like Hawaiian where his dad was a big leader, he grew up around it, played around it, came to the States often, played in twenty nine events with us. So like he had his and that's just with us, like that's his fair share. ⁓ Yeah, I mean he played in almost a hundred games of PG, so we've definitely seen him a bunch. So Jaba: I Jesus. underscore_underscore_: And that's just our stuff. You probably flew to the West Coast to do some other stuff throughout area codes, everything of that nature. So ⁓ in total, probably, but I mean, you could say that about I mean you can't say that about kids in Texas. All of them, but some of ⁓ like the smaller town kids that like I think like Grayson Rodriguez was kind of a mystery forever from Nacadoches, Texas. Like you just heard about him. He was from such a small place. Obviously a hundred in high school is gonna play. Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: But there's just pockets of kids everywhere and that's kind of the beauty of it all is finding them whenever we do. Some kids are at thirteen, some kids are at seventeen, some kids aren't until Pro Ball. Eric Hartman in the nineteenth round or eighteenth round, right? So Yeah. Jaba: Yep. Alright. Well, that wraps up ⁓ the AFL team previews. ⁓ we're probably gonna do an episode by itself on guys ⁓ without bowman cards because there's a good number of, you know, names worth knowing. And I would I would imagine that we also do a standalone ⁓ you know, kind of on sleepers, buys. I don't think we need to give like a top ten guys there because, you know, I th I I think there's no point. But, you know, we're we have some ideas for something we could do ⁓ with, you know, kind of picking a few sleepers. ⁓ so be on the lookout for that. We have a bunch of other content coming up. Please make sure you're following us on Instagram. We just made an X account. and yeah. Yeah. Thank you all for listening. As always, we appreciate you guys. The listens are going up, which ⁓ you know, just keeps us motivated to ⁓ underscore_underscore_: Love it. Jaba: continue here and we're and we're having a lot of fun with it. So all right. Thank you all. ⁓ go Glendale Desert Dogs and go Mets. See you guys. underscore_underscore_: Keep going. Yep.