Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Recession Odds SkyrocketšCrypto Market Update
Transcript
- 0:06Speaker 1: Odds of a US recession are skyrocketing. Today, we're going
- 0:09Speaker 1: to be breaking down how this may impact the crypto markets, Bitcoin,
- 0:12Speaker 1: all of your assets out there, don't leave. My name
- 0:16Speaker 1: is Paulbera. Welcome back into tech path. Let's get go
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- 0:48Speaker 1: Let's go over to a couple of points. Obviously, as
- 0:50Speaker 1: everybody knows, the tariff on China has launched what has
- 0:55Speaker 1: been a quid pro quo war of both. I think
- 1:01Speaker 1: the monetary system, what we're going to see within the
- 1:03Speaker 1: bond market, what we're going to see within the securities
- 1:06Speaker 1: market now, with many other things that are playing into
- 1:09Speaker 1: this around Chinese stocks. We'll get into that a little
- 1:12Speaker 1: bit later on another video, but there is a lot
- 1:14Speaker 1: going on that is affecting this. This is another statement
- 1:18Speaker 1: right here that China says, Hey, the US is weaponizing
- 1:21Speaker 1: tariffs as a tool of bullying and coercion, turning itself
- 1:25Speaker 1: into a joke.
- 1:26Speaker 2: You know, when you start seeing.
- 1:28Speaker 1: Statements like that, it is clear that Trump and the
- 1:31Speaker 1: administration has got under their skin, and for a reason,
- 1:35Speaker 1: a good reason. They've been able to outline all of
- 1:37Speaker 1: the missteps of China. And now we're starting to see
- 1:40Speaker 1: all of these situations that have been brewing for quite
- 1:44Speaker 1: some time. And the one thing that is at risk here, well,
- 1:47Speaker 1: it's this right here. The US still has the world's
- 1:50Speaker 1: largest economy because of its consumer driven model. Now, many
- 1:53Speaker 1: people would say, well, that's a weakness, it's also a
- 1:55Speaker 1: strength when you are the place for buyers and sellers
- 2:00Speaker 1: that market demands not only the ultimate respect, but in
- 2:05Speaker 1: many cases, the only respect. Now you combine that with
- 2:08Speaker 1: the one of the fastest growing technology sectors and also
- 2:13Speaker 1: the number one financial sector out there, and you have something. Yes, Now,
- 2:17Speaker 1: granted the US is not manufacturing. That's the weakness that
- 2:21Speaker 1: I think is going to end up being a negotiated
- 2:24Speaker 1: tactic between the Trump administration and the CCP. But it
- 2:28Speaker 1: still is up for grabs, and I think there's a
- 2:30Speaker 1: lot of pressure yet to come. Here's the real question
- 2:33Speaker 1: who gives up first, President Trump, China or the bond market.
- 2:36Speaker 1: This is the big deal that is happening right now.
- 2:38Speaker 1: At this rate, the tenure note will be at five
- 2:41Speaker 1: percent next week. That would completely change the dynamics going forward.
- 2:45Speaker 2: I want to go to a.
- 2:46Speaker 1: Clip real quick, because this next clip we'll get into
- 2:49Speaker 1: a little bit more around where Trump is today and
- 2:52Speaker 1: his position overall.
- 2:53Speaker 2: Take a look.
- 2:55Speaker 3: I'd rather call it a read my lips moment. George
- 2:58Speaker 3: Bush nineteen eighty eight convention speech, written by Peggy Newton,
- 3:02Speaker 3: famous for writing speeches for Ronald Reagan, said the biggest
- 3:05Speaker 3: takeaway is when he said, read my lips, no new taxes.
- 3:09Speaker 3: Two years later, as president, he raised taxes because the
- 3:12Speaker 3: interest on the debt reached the record level three point
- 3:15Speaker 3: two percent that stands today, That'll be broken next year.
- 3:18Speaker 3: I say it's a read my lips moment because George
- 3:20Speaker 3: Bush had to do something that was anathema to the party,
- 3:23Speaker 3: make a politically difficult decision to raise taxes. So today
- 3:27Speaker 3: we see with societal upheaval, stress related to difficult choices
- 3:32Speaker 3: that we have to make because of the high level
- 3:34Speaker 3: of indeadedness, a hall of mirrors effect where not only
- 3:39Speaker 3: are investors looking at policymakers, but policymakers are looking at
- 3:43Speaker 3: markets because they matter a great deal now with the
- 3:45Speaker 3: high level of debt that the US has.
- 3:47Speaker 4: Aren't we there right now policymakers looking at markets. Donald
- 3:50Speaker 4: Trump even talked about that the bond market was a
- 3:52Speaker 4: bit queasy overnight.
- 3:54Speaker 3: It happened now, but in a multi dimensional game of
- 3:57Speaker 3: chess that you know Donald Trump plays, if you think
- 3:59Speaker 3: he's thinking, and you've got to think something else, perhaps
- 4:01Speaker 3: who knows?
- 4:03Speaker 1: All right, So you can see this is one of
- 4:06Speaker 1: the most unusual times, at least I can ever remember,
- 4:09Speaker 1: going all the way back into my business career, and
- 4:12Speaker 1: I've had a chance to live through the two thousand
- 4:13Speaker 1: and eight financial crisis. Obviously I saw what happened in
- 4:17Speaker 1: even in the early eighties as a kid, and what
- 4:20Speaker 1: we saw in terms of these big recessions, high inflation,
- 4:23Speaker 1: all those.
- 4:23Speaker 2: Kind of things.
- 4:24Speaker 1: This is one that is for the records. Tax cuts
- 4:27Speaker 1: now account for thirty eight percent of the national debt today,
- 4:30Speaker 1: while recession responses and spinning increases each cost twenty nine percent.
- 4:34Speaker 1: And now the Republicans want to pass a five point
- 4:36Speaker 1: three trill in more tax cuts. This is not going
- 4:39Speaker 1: to be kept up. And I agree with that to
- 4:42Speaker 1: a certain extent. Yes, But the point I think that
- 4:45Speaker 1: everybody understands, and that eventually means that the VET will print,
- 4:48Speaker 1: we will see inflation start to accelerate, and I think
- 4:51Speaker 1: that starts to move us in to the next phase,
- 4:54Speaker 1: and that is how do US treasuries hold up against
- 4:58Speaker 1: other countries? Because this is where it's going to get
- 5:00Speaker 1: a little bit dicey around the US dollar.
- 5:03Speaker 2: Take a look.
- 5:04Speaker 5: Speaking with Greg Peters of PGM Fixed Income earlier, and
- 5:07Speaker 5: he said that this week really has been a game
- 5:09Speaker 5: changer for him, that he can't put this back in
- 5:10Speaker 5: the bottle.
- 5:11Speaker 6: You can't unsay certain things.
- 5:13Speaker 5: And that this really is making him rethink the role
- 5:16Speaker 5: of treasuries as a safe haven asset, given that if
- 5:19Speaker 5: the goal is to reduce trade, then essentially there will
- 5:22Speaker 5: be less dollars overseas to invest naturally in US treasuries.
- 5:27Speaker 5: Are you thinking about something similar you see.
- 5:29Speaker 3: That the nations that are friends would have still have
- 5:32Speaker 3: about six account for about sixty percent of world reserve assets.
- 5:36Speaker 3: So if each of the friends and foes went to
- 5:38Speaker 3: their respective corners, you expect that the amount of money
- 5:42Speaker 3: helding dollars would still be roughly the same, close to
- 5:45Speaker 3: six percent if it went to the extremes. That's one
- 5:48Speaker 3: major major point. The next one is liquidity. Of course,
- 5:51Speaker 3: the US bond market this week has seen, according to
- 5:53Speaker 3: the New York Fed, a seven hundred billion or so
- 5:56Speaker 3: of daily volume. No market comes close to that. This
- 5:59Speaker 3: isn't to say that over time we couldn't see that
- 6:01Speaker 3: fifty eight percent of money held in dollars decline. And
- 6:05Speaker 3: you have a plurality forty nine percent in dollars, more
- 6:08Speaker 3: in euros, more in the end, et cetera, et cetera.
- 6:11Speaker 3: It's possible, and I'll be gradual. Wouldn't expected to be immediate,
- 6:16Speaker 3: all right.
- 6:16Speaker 1: So, as you can see, guys, this is something that
- 6:18Speaker 1: has been in construct for quite some time. Many people
- 6:21Speaker 1: have talked about a financial reset that could be underway,
- 6:25Speaker 1: and it just may be in the scenario where we're
- 6:28Speaker 1: seeing right now it play out in public, where we
- 6:30Speaker 1: can actually start to put some of these puzzle pieces together.
- 6:34Speaker 1: The Euro itself has jumped to its strongest level against
- 6:38Speaker 1: the US dollar in more than three years. That also
- 6:41Speaker 1: is another factor, and this goes back obviously, back after.
- 6:45Speaker 2: Biden came in.
- 6:46Speaker 1: Now we're seeing a very strong euro coming back in
- 6:50Speaker 1: That in itself, I think will play into a global market,
- 6:52Speaker 1: especially around currency, and one of the things that will
- 6:55Speaker 1: hold the United States back from at least participating in
- 6:59Speaker 1: that would be a recession. So this is Remember, we
- 7:02Speaker 1: have short recessions and long recessions, some of them I
- 7:05Speaker 1: think have been just a few months. Here's Larry Fink
- 7:08Speaker 1: talking about that the United.
- 7:11Speaker 7: States post World War Two was a global stabilizer. We
- 7:16Speaker 7: are the global destabilizer.
- 7:19Speaker 8: Right right now.
- 7:20Speaker 7: That's a very you know, that's a very hard thing
- 7:23Speaker 7: to say, because I pride ourselves of being, you know,
- 7:27Speaker 7: bringing the leadership, bringing the conversations to celebrate. Yes, I
- 7:31Speaker 7: do believe we're probably starting, if not, we're in a recession. Yes,
- 7:35Speaker 7: I think the market is still anticipating, underestimating.
- 7:39Speaker 2: How high inflation can get.
- 7:42Speaker 7: If you factor in all the terraces, right, you factor
- 7:46Speaker 7: in all these other issues, it's going to be quite addictive.
- 7:50Speaker 7: I mean, I read in a report that if you
- 7:52Speaker 7: just take the terrace in the cost of home building,
- 7:55Speaker 7: the average new home could be up as much as
- 7:57Speaker 7: twenty six percent. We already have a housing affordability problem.
- 8:01Speaker 1: None of this sounds any good to me, all right,
- 8:03Speaker 1: I mean, and it's all self inflicted, by the way,
- 8:06Speaker 1: none of it needed.
- 8:06Speaker 7: This is not a pandemic. This is not a financial crisis.
- 8:09Speaker 7: This is something that we've created. But in the short run,
- 8:12Speaker 7: I'm petrified at some of these issues.
- 8:14Speaker 8: Petrified.
- 8:15Speaker 6: Let's be petrified, all right.
- 8:18Speaker 1: So Fink is definitely on the edge of a seat
- 8:21Speaker 1: right now. If you look back at the list of
- 8:23Speaker 1: recessions and their durations, this kind of goes into some
- 8:27Speaker 1: of them. I won't throw the Great Depression in there,
- 8:30Speaker 1: but the thirty seven one year. One of the ones
- 8:32Speaker 1: that is of most recent is the nineteen eighty recession
- 8:37Speaker 1: some similarities, but it only lasted for six months. And
- 8:41Speaker 1: then the last one that we saw which was induced
- 8:44Speaker 1: was COVID, and of course that was only two months.
- 8:46Speaker 1: I would throw that one out, but I would look
- 8:47Speaker 1: at the last several, both the eighty the eighty one
- 8:50Speaker 1: to eighty two, the early nineties and the early two
- 8:52Speaker 1: thousands all under a year with exception of one. So
- 8:56Speaker 1: if we were to enter into a recession, it is
- 9:00Speaker 1: a possibility that it could be a short lived one
- 9:02Speaker 1: that would still play into the favor of a rebound
- 9:07Speaker 1: on timing around mid terms. This is where it gets
- 9:10Speaker 1: very critical on how this could look for both the
- 9:14Speaker 1: administration but really kind of going forward. If you look
- 9:18Speaker 1: at the possibility of it right now, US recession in
- 9:20Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, sixty two percent over on polymarket after
- 9:24Speaker 1: it skyrocketed over the last twelve hours, so we are
- 9:27Speaker 1: seeing a continued move. Really if you go back here
- 9:31Speaker 1: just to March twenty eighth, where we were at thirty
- 9:32Speaker 1: seven percent of a potential. So this is where it
- 9:37Speaker 1: gets pretty crazy, guys, and it's going to get worse,
- 9:39Speaker 1: I think before it gets better. Even though we may
- 9:41Speaker 1: see some flight to safety in gold and bitcoin. I'll
- 9:45Speaker 1: show that in a minute. But more than fifty percent
- 9:47Speaker 1: of investors have been barished on the market for seven
- 9:50Speaker 1: straight weeks, the longest streak since October ninety. That goes
- 9:53Speaker 1: back to a recession that ended up marking the bottom
- 9:56Speaker 1: of a bear market.
- 9:58Speaker 2: So that's another.
- 9:59Speaker 1: Factor into remember the mag siven There's been a lot
- 10:02Speaker 1: of falloff here on the S and P five hundred
- 10:04Speaker 1: in general. And if you look at Bitcoin even going
- 10:06Speaker 1: up to one hundred and eight and then falling back
- 10:08Speaker 1: down ward's trading right now which is starting to near
- 10:11Speaker 1: possibility of going back to ninety.
- 10:13Speaker 2: We'll see if that can hold.
- 10:14Speaker 1: But the FED is really now in the game because
- 10:18Speaker 1: now you've got the FED versus tariffs. This is where
- 10:21Speaker 1: it all comes together, because the question is when would
- 10:24Speaker 1: the FED print take a look at this clip?
- 10:27Speaker 8: And so the question becomes, you know, is there a
- 10:30Speaker 8: FED put on those negotiations or is there an administration
- 10:34Speaker 8: put on those negotiations or neither.
- 10:38Speaker 4: You know, the FED cannot change the ultimate destination of
- 10:41Speaker 4: where the economy is going to settle. All we can
- 10:44Speaker 4: do is keep inflation in check and try to keep
- 10:47Speaker 4: dislocations from disrupting that transition period. But I'm really I
- 10:51Speaker 4: think we're on tenor hooks that this could start to
- 10:54Speaker 4: get out of hand.
- 10:54Speaker 2: Why not do it now? If we're not restrictive anymore.
- 10:58Speaker 4: I think that the FED or try stepping in, should
- 11:02Speaker 4: be done reluctantly, should be done when it's only truly
- 11:04Speaker 4: needed not all the time, and right now short term
- 11:08Speaker 4: inflation expectation have increased. We've had four years of elevated inflation.
- 11:12Speaker 4: I think we should be very cautious about taking moves
- 11:15Speaker 4: that potentially could demonstrate a weakening, which I don't believe
- 11:19Speaker 4: is there but a weakening of the Fed's commitment to
- 11:21Speaker 4: get inflation all the way back down. I think we
- 11:23Speaker 4: need to finish the job on inflation and then we'll
- 11:25Speaker 4: be able to get back to the traditional trade offs
- 11:28Speaker 4: of the dual mandate goals. And for me, for one
- 11:31Speaker 4: policy maker, I'm not there yet.
- 11:33Speaker 1: This is one of the most precarious situations I think
- 11:35Speaker 1: the FED maybe has ever been in the Federal Reserve
- 11:38Speaker 1: now rules out liquidity injection, expecting Trump's actions to kill
- 11:43Speaker 1: the rate cut plans because many of which they think
- 11:45Speaker 1: is going to be tariff induced. Is that we will
- 11:48Speaker 1: see a lift in inflation or at least a slowing
- 11:51Speaker 1: and somewhat of a flat position right now. So it's
- 11:54Speaker 1: going to be kind of that higher for longer model
- 11:57Speaker 1: that has been going on for really quite some time
- 12:00Speaker 1: time and the FED has yet to hold through this.
- 12:02Speaker 2: Now, remember we've hit.
- 12:03Speaker 1: A bitcoin time high, a gold all time high and
- 12:07Speaker 1: a S and P all time high during a higher
- 12:10Speaker 1: for longer. So I want you guys to think about that,
- 12:13Speaker 1: because yes, there has been market pain. The real question
- 12:16Speaker 1: is is this the end? Are we going to continue
- 12:19Speaker 1: to see downside volatility going forward?
- 12:22Speaker 2: Any minute?
- 12:22Speaker 1: Now here's zero heads, it becomes a FED versus the PBOC,
- 12:25Speaker 1: that's the People's Bank of China. And when the gloves
- 12:30Speaker 1: really come off is when it starts to get interesting,
- 12:32Speaker 1: because that's the two greatest economies in the world going
- 12:36Speaker 1: head to head. Another twenty BIPs move on the tenure. This,
- 12:40Speaker 1: of course today puts one hundred BIPs above when the
- 12:43Speaker 1: FED pivots began. So let me kind of zoom in
- 12:46Speaker 1: on that. What is the FED thinking right now? That's
- 12:48Speaker 1: the big question that everybody's asking, whether or not Powell
- 12:51Speaker 1: is going to pull the trigger on any FED rate cuts.
- 12:53Speaker 1: My anticipation at the current rate that we have going
- 12:57Speaker 1: both on economic of all the people that I've talked to, economist,
- 13:01Speaker 1: the amount of people that are in the market, money managers,
- 13:05Speaker 1: everybody is in the same position as they feel that
- 13:08Speaker 1: this is going to slow pal down. Here's another clip,
- 13:12Speaker 1: because this is where we get into inflation prints before tariffs.
- 13:15Speaker 6: Take a look, what was inflation dropping that rapidly.
- 13:19Speaker 9: What we know and frankly, I think about this print
- 13:22Speaker 9: is almost like the before times. The Trump administration inherited
- 13:25Speaker 9: a very strong economy. We were on a path to
- 13:28Speaker 9: a soft landing. We were in a situation where the
- 13:30Speaker 9: Fed had to deal with the last mile with.
- 13:32Speaker 6: Our station, you know, a month and a half after
- 13:35Speaker 6: two months, two and a half months after they had
- 13:37Speaker 6: come in, so they could probably take claim victory with some.
- 13:40Speaker 3: Of these olders had one thing we had last year,
- 13:42Speaker 3: the same thing, right, We had that bump up in
- 13:44Speaker 3: the beginning of the year and then it came down
- 13:45Speaker 3: in the spring totally.
- 13:47Speaker 9: And you don't want to take any too much from
- 13:49Speaker 9: any one particular set of data, but I think you
- 13:52Speaker 9: are in a situation where this data is telling you
- 13:54Speaker 9: that almost if we had not ignited a trade war
- 13:58Speaker 9: and been in a situation where we're talking about tariffs
- 14:00Speaker 9: now at rates that we haven't seen in the last century,
- 14:04Speaker 9: you would be on pretty good path with respect.
- 14:07Speaker 2: To the economy.
- 14:08Speaker 9: But what you're going to see in the short run
- 14:09Speaker 9: is you're going to see prices rise by over two
- 14:12Speaker 9: and a half percent, and you're going to see for.
- 14:14Speaker 2: The savage points addition to the percent.
- 14:19Speaker 9: That we have already, and you're going to see on
- 14:21Speaker 9: average for the American household prices rise because this they
- 14:24Speaker 9: are all their consumer goods, right, Prices are going to
- 14:26Speaker 9: rise by forty four hundred dollars. So this is going
- 14:28Speaker 9: to be at least in the short run, very inflationary.
- 14:33Speaker 2: All right, So there you have it right now.
- 14:35Speaker 1: A lot of experts, now it's these same experts that
- 14:37Speaker 1: have been calling in different ways of the market. We've
- 14:41Speaker 1: seen positive, volatile, you know, doomsday kind of scenarios, and
- 14:45Speaker 1: what appears to me is that the financial community right
- 14:48Speaker 1: now is no better advice on this than anybody.
- 14:52Speaker 2: And that's the thing.
- 14:54Speaker 1: You've got to continue to watch these signals very closely
- 14:57Speaker 1: as things go forward. Now, one of the key signals
- 14:59Speaker 1: that I I watch often is how does small business
- 15:02Speaker 1: respond to this, because that usually will give you an
- 15:05Speaker 1: idea of how the American consumer is responding, because if
- 15:09Speaker 1: they're not spending money, it will slow the market that
- 15:12Speaker 1: will reduce inflation dramatically. If you look at this right
- 15:15Speaker 1: here coming in from kobeec Us, small business optimism is fading.
- 15:20Speaker 1: The one that I am watching the most is the
- 15:22Speaker 1: restaurant industry. The share of firms expecting higher sales dropped
- 15:26Speaker 1: eleven points to three percent. So this is the lowest
- 15:29Speaker 1: sense October. And everybody I'm talking to in terms of
- 15:32Speaker 1: CEOs from some of the biggest brands out there, they
- 15:35Speaker 1: are slowing their projections on revenues this year and they
- 15:40Speaker 1: believe that this summer could be the worst revenue opportunity
- 15:45Speaker 1: for that industry, of the restaurant industry in possibly the
- 15:48Speaker 1: last three decades. That's the kind of thing. So if
- 15:50Speaker 1: you see consumers pulling back, then yes they are.
- 15:54Speaker 2: You know, you're seeing.
- 15:54Speaker 1: Consumers in a position where there's a lot more tightness
- 15:56Speaker 1: than the market. That will only cause companies to one lower.
- 16:02Speaker 1: The problem there is you have is you've got to
- 16:04Speaker 1: accelerate the inflation downward without dealing with the potential issues
- 16:11Speaker 1: and hits on the job market, because if you've got
- 16:13Speaker 1: those go in the right direction, that could end up
- 16:15Speaker 1: with stagflation. That's the problem that we kind of have
- 16:18Speaker 1: to avoid.
- 16:19Speaker 2: Here's Arthur Hayes.
- 16:20Speaker 1: He's hitting on interestingly, it's not like donkeycont we'll be
- 16:24Speaker 1: getting more policy response this weekend. If it keeps up,
- 16:26Speaker 1: we're about to enter an up only mode. And I
- 16:28Speaker 1: think if you look at bitcoin right now and gold,
- 16:32Speaker 1: let me.
- 16:32Speaker 2: Go over to the gold chart real quick. Here's the
- 16:35Speaker 2: gold chart, guys, right here. Let's take a look.
- 16:37Speaker 1: Holding right now almost ten percent in three days. Gold
- 16:41Speaker 1: doesn't move like that. Okay, everybody understands gold does not
- 16:44Speaker 1: move like that. But today gold is a crypto project
- 16:48Speaker 1: and it's moving at ten percent in three days. Look
- 16:51Speaker 1: at Bitcoin obviously up another five percent after a little
- 16:54Speaker 1: bit of a volatiley pullback.
- 16:56Speaker 2: This is typical trade activity.
- 16:57Speaker 1: But again, if you look at this over just the
- 16:59Speaker 1: last three days, from that wick down to where it's
- 17:02Speaker 1: holding right there, almost thirteen percent on bitcoin alone. Now
- 17:06Speaker 1: the key here is are these these safe assets?
- 17:10Speaker 2: Now?
- 17:11Speaker 1: Are we possibly seeing a declining dollar, a very unstable inflation,
- 17:16Speaker 1: an unsure fed position, and nobody knows what's going to
- 17:21Speaker 1: happen on this trade war? Does bitcoin and gold become
- 17:24Speaker 1: the two assets that everybody's going to potentially go to. Remember,
- 17:27Speaker 1: there's a lot of cash setting on sidelines right down
- 17:30Speaker 1: all right, guys, if you're not in the diamond circle,
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