Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Trump China Tariffs Set to Unleash Supply Jolt on US Economy

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Trump China Tariffs Set to Unleash Supply Jolt on US Economy · Bloomberg Intelligence

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Speaker 2: Let's get back to the trade story, which remains front
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Speaker 2: and center here. It seems like we're in a period
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Speaker 2: where negotiations are happening between the Trump administration and a
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Speaker 2: number of different countries over a number of different teriff
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Speaker 2: measures here. So it's important to try to stay on
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Speaker 2: top of kind of where we are, and we have
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Speaker 2: a good team doing that. Brenda Murray joins US Global
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Speaker 2: Trade editor for Bloomberg News. He's in London, Brendan, it
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Speaker 2: seems like the president over the next several weeks, is
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Speaker 2: it fair to expect that we'll get some announcements on
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Speaker 2: trade deals with some of our major trading partners.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, it depends on what you mean by a
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Speaker 3: deal to say that we're likely to get a number
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Speaker 3: of announcements laying out the path for talks for an
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Speaker 3: eventual deal. Trade deals are very complicated. They take a
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Speaker 3: long time to hammer out and to get anything meaningful,
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Speaker 3: it's going to take a lot of time. But what
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Speaker 3: you could see are some sort of interim proposals, interim
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Speaker 3: agreements that would would set the US and the trading
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Speaker 3: partner on that course. Some of those who are sort
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Speaker 3: of have an early lead would be India, South Korea, Japan.
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Speaker 3: These are big export economies that the US wants to
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Speaker 3: trade more with to reduce the tariff and non tariff
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Speaker 3: barriers that they have with the US economy. So we
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Speaker 3: could see we could see some action along those lines.
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Speaker 3: But again, to expect anything major, anything fundamentally changing the
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Speaker 3: picture of the US trade imbalances like Donald Trump would
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Speaker 3: like to see, is probably a bit of wishful thinking.
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Speaker 4: Now, Bertie, you said Treasury Secretary Scott bet And said,
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Speaker 4: the administration working on them by lateral trade deal with
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Speaker 4: seventeen key partners, but not including China. So where does
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Speaker 4: China stand in all this?
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Speaker 3: Yeah, well this is the big you know, this is
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Speaker 3: the big This is the big prize, right, is some
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Speaker 3: sort of deal with China. And if if the US
2:14
Speaker 3: and China aren't even talking and by all accounts according
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Speaker 3: to that they've not really having any sort of formal
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Speaker 3: discussions that would lead in the right direction toward a
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Speaker 3: formal sit down discussion that you know, you're leaving out
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Speaker 3: a big part of the imbalance, the big, you know,
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Speaker 3: the biggest imbalance that the US has. So you can
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Speaker 3: talk trade deals with Japan and South Korea and India
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Speaker 3: and other countries, but the real prize is that Donald
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Speaker 3: Trump wants is a trade deal with China, and so
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Speaker 3: far they're going nowhere.
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Speaker 2: I'm that, you know, David Rosenberg, a frequent guest on
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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Surveillance formerly Merrill Lynch. He's and he's a Canadian,
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Speaker 2: and out with a tweet saying basically, hey, everybody, I
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Speaker 2: know you're focused on China, but you need to figure
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Speaker 2: out something with Canada because Canada is the big trading
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Speaker 2: partner with the US, as is Mexico.
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Speaker 5: Where do we stand. Do you think with Canada and Mexico?
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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, the Canadians don't sound like they're of course
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Speaker 3: they're in there. You know, they're in the middle of
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Speaker 3: an election right now, and they don't they don't sound
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Speaker 3: like they're in any big hurry to do a deal.
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Speaker 3: The Prime Minister Mark Karney said the other day we'd
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Speaker 3: rather have a good deal rather than a fast deal.
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Speaker 3: So we'll see how that election plays out. That could
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Speaker 3: that could dictate the course of of of any negotiations.
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Speaker 3: But you know, in the meantime, the Canadian economy is
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Speaker 3: going to suffer. American auto companies are going to suffer
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Speaker 3: because they rely so much on Canadian suppliers. So you
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Speaker 3: could look for a lot more disruption the longer that
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Speaker 3: drags out with the cloud of uncertainty hanging over it,
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Speaker 3: as it has for several weeks.
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Speaker 4: And but what about the big company. Let's say Walmarts
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Speaker 4: and Targets are retailers. They have to replenish their inventories.
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Speaker 4: Where do they stand in all this?
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Speaker 3: Yeah, so this is a big story we have out
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Speaker 3: today is that retailers like Walmart and Target, the big
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Speaker 3: ones and small companies are looking at those one hundred
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Speaker 3: and forty five percent tariffs on goods from China and saying,
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Speaker 3: we can't do that, we can't afford that. That's twice,
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Speaker 3: well more than twice what we could pay. So we're
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Speaker 3: just canceling orders from China. And so what we're seeing
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Speaker 3: is in a couple of weeks when those orders would
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Speaker 3: have already gotten here. We're going to see volumes through
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Speaker 3: US ports go down. We're going to see inventories through
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Speaker 3: warehouses go down, and in the big retailers have even
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Speaker 3: said privately to President Trump, according to our reporting, that
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Speaker 3: you know, this could be this could mean shortages and
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Speaker 3: price hikes. So the wave of decoupling that is underway
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Speaker 3: between China and the US hasn't really hit the real economy.
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Speaker 3: Right now, we hear the administration say, oh, well, you know,
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Speaker 3: Wall Street has had a good run. It's time for
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Speaker 3: us to focus on Main Street. We'll main streets about
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Speaker 3: ready to get hit with some of this, and unless
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Speaker 3: things change fast, then we're going to start seeing it
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Speaker 3: in in a lot of in some layoffs in in
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Speaker 3: industries like trucking and logistics and warehousing where really the
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Speaker 3: rubber meets the road between trade and the US economy.
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Speaker 5: Are we past the point of no return?
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Speaker 2: Brendan, in terms of some of the economic damage that
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Speaker 2: could be done, you know, in terms of supply chain
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Speaker 2: not getting the stuff that we typically get.
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Speaker 5: Well in the short in the short run.
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Speaker 3: If President Trump announced later today that which nobody would
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Speaker 3: expect this, that he was he was freezing all tariffs
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Speaker 3: and we were gonna this was gonna be he was
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Speaker 3: going to try to do this another way. If he
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Speaker 3: kind of backpedaled on everything, we'd still have a supply whiplash.
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Speaker 3: All those canceled orders would be placed again, and we
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Speaker 3: would have, you know, the volumes surging through US ports.
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Speaker 3: And we saw during the pandemic what happens when when
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Speaker 3: the the nodes of of supply change get bogged down.
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Speaker 3: Is we had one hundred and twenty ships parked outside
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Speaker 3: the port of Long Beach in Los Angeles. So that's
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Speaker 3: the kind of thing. Most people don't think it's going
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Speaker 3: to happen on that kind of scale, but the system
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Speaker 3: can't handle big declines or surges in volumes, and that's
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Speaker 3: what we're looking at over the next several weeks or
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Speaker 3: a few months.
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Speaker 2: All right, Brendan, thank you so much for joining us Avius.
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Speaker 2: Appreciate getting your reporting. That's Brendan Murray, a Global trade
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Speaker 2: editor for Bloomberg News joining us from London. And again
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Speaker 2: there's some reporting out of Bloomberg and others over the weekend,
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Speaker 2: just simply the volume of ships leaving Chinese ports setting
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Speaker 2: sail for presumably the west coast of the US, and
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Speaker 2: we often talk to Gene Soroca, who runs the Port
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Speaker 2: of Los Angeles on Long Beach. We'll search to get
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Speaker 2: back in touch with them in the next couple of days.
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Speaker 2: But some of those sailings have declined dramatically just in
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Speaker 2: the last couple of weeks. So perhaps that's reflecting what
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Speaker 2: was Brendan was suggesting, was maybe some canceled orders from
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Speaker 2: some US wholesalers and retailers.
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Speaker 5: Will stay on top of that story.
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7:15
Speaker 2: All right, big earnings week out there for the S
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Speaker 2: ANDP five hundred. We have twenty trillion dollars in market cap.
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Speaker 5: It's going to report earnings this week. That is big.
7:22
Speaker 5: We had about eleven billion last week.
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Speaker 2: And some of the big companies that can report and
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Speaker 2: are the technology companies, and you really want to get
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Speaker 2: a handle on kind of how they're.
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Speaker 5: Viewing the world these days. So we asked a couple
7:30
Speaker 5: of the smart folks that we know to to join
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Speaker 5: us here.
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Speaker 2: Anurag Rana Man Deep singing their senior technology channels for
7:36
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence. Honra joins us from Chicago, and Mandeep is
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Speaker 2: in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio Man Deal.
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Speaker 5: Let me start with you here.
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Speaker 2: I mean, just given what you've heard so far from
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Speaker 2: some of the big tech companies and what you expect
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Speaker 2: this week, how is how are some of the companies,
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Speaker 2: these big technology companies, which had been real drivers for
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Speaker 2: the stock market, how are they kind of saying they're
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Speaker 2: seeing the world out there these days?
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Speaker 6: Yeah?
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Speaker 7: I think in the case of Meta, I mean clearly
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Speaker 7: they are exposed to the deminimous rule where companies in
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Speaker 7: China can't really ship any products below eight hundred dollars anymore.
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Speaker 7: And that was a big driver of ad spending from
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Speaker 7: Timu and Chain and some of these advertisers. So that's
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Speaker 7: going to impact Meta. We saw in the case of Alphabet,
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Speaker 7: the click ads grew only two percent, the pricing was
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Speaker 7: relatively stable. So I think in the case of Meta,
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Speaker 7: the ad pricing may come under more pressure compared to
8:36
Speaker 7: an alphabet, and the ad impressions may be better than alphabet.
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Speaker 7: So because of the FTC case against Meta and similarly
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Speaker 7: for Alphabet. These companies have regulatory pressures as well, but
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Speaker 7: there is no doubt that the macro environment has changed
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Speaker 7: for the worse. And I don't see, you know, even
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Speaker 7: though the impact would show up more in two Q,
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Speaker 7: I don't see how they guide better than they did
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Speaker 7: in the fourth quarter.
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Speaker 4: What about AI spend? How much of an impact is
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Speaker 4: that going to have? Are the investors going to be
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Speaker 4: looking to that?
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Speaker 7: So Meta raised their CAPEX the last time they reported
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Speaker 7: to sixty five billion, and in between there was news
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Speaker 7: that Meta is looking for an Amazon and Microsoft to
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Speaker 7: share some of that capex because they have an open
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Speaker 7: source model. So I think they're under pressure to kind
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Speaker 7: of cut back on the CAPEX or the reality lab spend.
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Speaker 7: But so far no one has pulled back on AI
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Speaker 7: capex given you are still in a supply constrained environment
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Speaker 7: when it comes to the GPUs and overall AI infrastructure.
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Speaker 7: So it'll be interesting to see what they end up doing.
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Speaker 2: Hey, Anurag, you know, I kind of think with even
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Speaker 2: within technology, which is such a great growth story and
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Speaker 2: can batter some slowdowns, I think of the software companies
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Speaker 2: that you cover is kind of maybe one of the
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Speaker 2: safer places to be within technology. What do you expect
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Speaker 2: to hear from the Microsoft's of the world.
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Speaker 6: Yes, you know, on a relative basis, I think you're
10:02
Speaker 6: right about that. But at the same time, they do
10:04
Speaker 6: have an impact on the second degree demand. If the
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Speaker 6: enterprise text spending starts to cut down, you know, that
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Speaker 6: has an impact on software space as well. So so
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Speaker 6: that's the something we will be looking for. But I
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Speaker 6: would agree with Mandib that we are not anticipating a
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Speaker 6: drop in capex either from Microsoft or AWS later this week,
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Speaker 6: because that those are the names that dictate a lot
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Speaker 6: in terms of, you know, how AI spend will shape
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Speaker 6: up over the next twelve months.
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Speaker 2: Where within the text act on a route do you
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Speaker 2: think you could see maybe some of the biggest exposure
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Speaker 2: to I guess just tariffs and maybe a slowing global economy.
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Speaker 6: Yeah, so Apple is going to be in front and
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Speaker 6: center over there. There's so much news about you know,
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Speaker 6: their ability to move the supply chain that's not that easy.
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Speaker 6: We do anticipate some pull forward and demand for them.
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Speaker 6: We know the you know, Apple stores were really crowded
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Speaker 6: before the tariff date, and you know that that will
10:58
Speaker 6: show up in some of the numbers. But the question
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Speaker 6: is going to be what kind of guidance can they give,
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Speaker 6: and in fact, if they can even give guidance at
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Speaker 6: this point, and you know, how if there is a
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Speaker 6: big number that goes up on tatifs can they even
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Speaker 6: fulfill the demand. So there's going to be a lot
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Speaker 6: of noise around that supply chain and what they're doing
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Speaker 6: to offset that, both in the near term and in
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Speaker 6: the long term.
11:17
Speaker 4: And the other big story for today IBM planning to
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Speaker 4: invest one hundred and fifty billion in the US over
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Speaker 4: the next five years. Mandy, can you break it down
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Speaker 4: for us? What does that include? That's a pretty big number.
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Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, look in the case of five AM,
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Speaker 7: they are not a big spender on AI capex, so clearly,
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Speaker 7: you know, they are looking to expand in terms of
11:37
Speaker 7: their own investments, whether it's mainframe related or any other
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Speaker 7: type of R and D around quantum. But we've heard
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Speaker 7: that from Apple, you know, five hundred billion dollars over
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Speaker 7: the next four years. So a lot of these tech
11:52
Speaker 7: companies are looking to appease the administration, which is keen
11:56
Speaker 7: to you know, bring manufacturing back. Interesting to see where
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Speaker 7: IBM sort of thinks about investing the one hundred and
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Speaker 7: fifty billion dollars because, as I said, they're not a
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Speaker 7: big player when it comes to the AI infrastructure play
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Speaker 7: that the other hyperscalers are involved in.
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Speaker 2: Hey, an er, guessin you remember a lot of the
12:16
Speaker 2: CEOs that you and man deep cover making their way
12:20
Speaker 2: to Washington, DC over the last three four months having
12:23
Speaker 2: meetings with the President members of administration. Is there a
12:26
Speaker 2: sense that they're getting the benefit of that or is
12:29
Speaker 2: it having any impact because I'm not sure I see that.
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Speaker 6: Well. One could argue that, you know, the smartphone exemptions
12:37
Speaker 6: that we got or the consumer electronics may have had
12:39
Speaker 6: something to do with it. But we'll find out if
12:41
Speaker 6: that can continue or not. But you know, frankly speaking,
12:45
Speaker 6: these companies are the ones that are really putting us
12:48
Speaker 6: at the forefront. I will be very surprised if we
12:51
Speaker 6: see a much more hostile behavior against them. The big
12:55
Speaker 6: question is Hasmond you mentioned there are a few antitrust
12:58
Speaker 6: cases going across them right now. For a bunch of
13:00
Speaker 6: these companies, we'll find out how the administration takes over
13:04
Speaker 6: or you know, puts their credibility or the backing behind
13:08
Speaker 6: those deals.
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Speaker 4: Man, if you mentioned before quantum computing when we were
13:12
Speaker 4: talking about IBM, I mean, are we going to be
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Speaker 4: hearing more and more of that come in the future,
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Speaker 4: because we've been hearing so much about AI. But is
13:19
Speaker 4: quantum kind of going to move forward?
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Speaker 7: I think at this point, you know, given the macro
13:25
Speaker 7: environment we are in, I would focus more on what
13:28
Speaker 7: the companies think, as you know, monetizable in the near term.
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Speaker 7: Quantum would be further out. At the same time, I mean,
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Speaker 7: could you know one to two percent of those CAPEX
13:39
Speaker 7: dollars go into quantum, Yes, but the big chunk would
13:42
Speaker 7: still be allocated towards AI and you know, specifically inferencing,
13:47
Speaker 7: because everyone seems to be quite bullish about the type
13:50
Speaker 7: of use cases that are emerging around AI agents and
13:54
Speaker 7: what it means for the overall enterprises.
13:57
Speaker 2: All Right, fellows, thank you so much for joining us.
13:59
Speaker 2: Always appreciate getting you guys, particularly when we get you
14:01
Speaker 2: guys together on rog Rana. Man deep seeing there to
14:04
Speaker 2: two folks that kind of run our global technology research
14:08
Speaker 2: effort at Bloomberg Intelligence, and like you have to do.
14:11
Speaker 2: Technology is a global business. Therefore you need to have
14:16
Speaker 2: expertise on the ground all around the world, and we
14:18
Speaker 2: do Asia, Europe, North America. We've got it covered for you,
14:22
Speaker 2: and man Deep and on rog run that business for us.
14:25
Speaker 2: We appreciate getting a couple of minutes of their time.
14:27
Speaker 2: It's gonna be a big week for earnings continued big
14:29
Speaker 2: week for technology companies to what extent is their business
14:32
Speaker 2: be impacted by some of the economic uncertainty that may
14:35
Speaker 2: be building out there as a result of maybe some
14:37
Speaker 2: uncertain tariff policy issues. So we'll see how that plays
14:41
Speaker 2: out this week when you get more again twenty trillion
14:44
Speaker 2: dollars in market cap those companies reporting this week.
14:49
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
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15:03
Speaker 2: And we've got a lot of economic data, and maybe
15:05
Speaker 2: the question is when are we can start seeing some
15:07
Speaker 2: of the uncertainty in some of the economic data, whether
15:10
Speaker 2: it's GDP or inflation.
15:12
Speaker 5: And that kind of thing. So we got attention to that.
15:14
Speaker 2: So if you're a professional money manager, there's plenty to
15:16
Speaker 2: keep you busy. Kim Farest, founder and chief investment officer
15:19
Speaker 2: Bouque Capital Partners Joints this year, Kim, kind of with
15:23
Speaker 2: that set up, what do you think is driving socks here?
15:25
Speaker 2: Do we earnings or some of this bigger I guess
15:29
Speaker 2: economic data issues or is it just what comes out
15:33
Speaker 2: of the Twitter account or ex account or of a
15:37
Speaker 2: certain president.
15:39
Speaker 8: I think all of the above. But here's what I've
15:41
Speaker 8: learned from doing this for the past. I can't believe
15:44
Speaker 8: that twenty six years of looking at markets is in
15:49
Speaker 8: a given day they can really only process one or
15:52
Speaker 8: two ideas. I kid you not. If you go back
15:56
Speaker 8: to what happened on Friday, you can suss out what
16:00
Speaker 8: what drove the market? What was and you look at
16:02
Speaker 8: the stocks, and you look at the data that comes
16:05
Speaker 8: out and you go, Aha, this is what drove the market.
16:08
Speaker 8: So I'm going to make a bold prediction that the
16:11
Speaker 8: thing that drove the markets last year clearly was in
16:14
Speaker 8: Nvidia and the AI trade. And this week we're going
16:18
Speaker 8: to get a little bit more information on whether or
16:20
Speaker 8: not the AI trade is dead, and I think the
16:23
Speaker 8: answer is no, because we got a sneak peek from
16:26
Speaker 8: what happened on Thursday. I think it was Thursday. Every
16:30
Speaker 8: day seems like a lifetime anyhow with Google, and Google
16:36
Speaker 8: reiterated that they are going to continue spending on their
16:39
Speaker 8: AI build out, and so we expect Microsoft, Meta, and
16:45
Speaker 8: Amazon to all say the same thing.
16:47
Speaker 9: It's actually a very good point. And Kim, I've been
16:51
Speaker 9: asking the question all morning are we going to see
16:53
Speaker 9: more cost cuts? Because there was a story in the
16:56
Speaker 9: Wall Street Journal that said corporate CEOs are like saying
17:03
Speaker 9: the market version of the serenity prayer right now. Costs
17:05
Speaker 9: are the only thing that they can really control, and
17:08
Speaker 9: in the face of total uncertainty, that's the lever they're pulling.
17:11
Speaker 9: But I was talking with Gargey chow Duri of Blackrock
17:15
Speaker 9: this morning and she said, well, you know what, Google
17:18
Speaker 9: didn't cut its capex, so maybe we won't see cutting
17:21
Speaker 9: capex from the other hyperscalers. And that's really what's driving
17:26
Speaker 9: this market, is that AI trade that that you know,
17:28
Speaker 9: we obviously saw so big last year. What about other
17:32
Speaker 9: companies though, Kim, are you worried that we're going to
17:35
Speaker 9: start seeing especially smaller companies start to fire our employees,
17:39
Speaker 9: start to you know, close down stores, start to reduce
17:43
Speaker 9: costs wherever they can.
17:46
Speaker 8: So the answer is always yes, right for the troubled,
17:50
Speaker 8: like Macy's is going to close a store in this
17:55
Speaker 8: I don't know how big. It was a huge, huge
17:58
Speaker 8: mall and there's only three things it now maybe four
18:02
Speaker 8: if you consider the collectibles shop that's in there as well.
18:06
Speaker 9: That's amazing business. That's like something it really doesn't.
18:09
Speaker 8: But that's I'm painting this right. Joanne Fabrics pulled the
18:12
Speaker 8: plug there, but we've got Macy's that is now going
18:15
Speaker 8: to pull the plug. Dick's Sporting Goods is going to
18:18
Speaker 8: pull the plug. But the township of Frasier has its
18:22
Speaker 8: township building in that building. But it's massive. It is
18:25
Speaker 8: the hugest, most empty building I've ever seen in my
18:28
Speaker 8: entire life. But that is what we get is companies
18:32
Speaker 8: that aren't succeeding are going to reshuffle the decks.
18:35
Speaker 7: Now Dixon is.
18:35
Speaker 8: Doing pretty well, but in that mall, nobody's going to
18:38
Speaker 8: the mall. They're going to move somewhere else, no kidding.
18:41
Speaker 8: So that goes on all the time. But the I
18:43
Speaker 8: would even say smaller companies that are successful are not
18:47
Speaker 8: going to just indiscriminately higher. What companies do have right
18:51
Speaker 8: now is technology that tells them what the pipeline is
18:54
Speaker 8: doing in real time. Most even small companies have a
18:58
Speaker 8: CRM system where they can see what demand looks like.
19:01
Speaker 8: And I think that is going to drive things, not tweets,
19:05
Speaker 8: not you know, headlines. It's going to be what's happening
19:09
Speaker 8: with our business. And if your business is sick, you're
19:12
Speaker 8: going to make some.
19:13
Speaker 5: Cuts, Kim. I mean looking at the S and P.
19:16
Speaker 2: I made the comment earlier that depends on kind of
19:18
Speaker 2: your glass half end to your half full kind of
19:20
Speaker 2: person that you know. The the bad news is that
19:24
Speaker 2: the S and p's down, you know, ten percent roughly from.
19:26
Speaker 5: Its peak earlier this year.
19:27
Speaker 2: The good news is that it's up ten percent from
19:30
Speaker 2: the bottom. How do you view kind of the what's
19:32
Speaker 2: going on out there in the stock market generally, Well.
19:35
Speaker 8: Again, I'm kind of a mathematician, that's my basic training
19:41
Speaker 8: was That's what I graduated with a degree in that
19:43
Speaker 8: and computer science. So I like to take apart the
19:46
Speaker 8: pieces of the S and P. And if I look
19:48
Speaker 8: at what was driving the S and P last year
19:51
Speaker 8: and pretty much through the end of the year was
19:54
Speaker 8: the AI trade. So that's the big mag seven. I
19:58
Speaker 8: was going to call them the Big seven mag seven
20:01
Speaker 8: and then you know, especially in Vidia. Now Nvidia has
20:05
Speaker 8: come down a lot, right, yeah, yeah, so that is
20:12
Speaker 8: overweight in the S and P or it was really
20:14
Speaker 8: overweight in the S and P five hundred calculation. So
20:18
Speaker 8: you have to look at that, and if you look
20:20
Speaker 8: at the rest of the S and P five hundred,
20:23
Speaker 8: they're really not going all that up or down. Right
20:27
Speaker 8: that most of that dip down and dip back up
20:30
Speaker 8: was the Magnificent seven and that was the blessing last
20:34
Speaker 8: year and it's the curse this year. So you index
20:37
Speaker 8: buyers are just going to have to put.
20:39
Speaker 5: Up with that.
20:40
Speaker 9: It's actually at one point it was down thirty seven percent,
20:43
Speaker 9: peaked to trough, you know, with the peak being like
20:47
Speaker 9: the very beginning of January and the trough being two
20:50
Speaker 9: weeks ago. We've had a pretty powerful rally though over
20:54
Speaker 9: the past four days. Today it's you know, looking not
20:58
Speaker 9: looking like it's gonna continue.
21:00
Speaker 5: But we had.
21:01
Speaker 9: The Swig Breadth Thrust indicator triggered for at least the
21:07
Speaker 9: eighteenth I've seen three different estimates of how many times
21:11
Speaker 9: have been triggered since nineteen forty three, but it's been
21:13
Speaker 9: at least eighteen times, and each of those eighteen times, KIM,
21:18
Speaker 9: It's resulted in double digit gains on average, like fifteen
21:23
Speaker 9: percent six months out and twenty five percent twelve months out.
21:27
Speaker 9: Do you put any trust into the swig breadth thrust indicator,
21:31
Speaker 9: which basically just says NYC stocks only, I think forty
21:38
Speaker 9: percent of them were at new highs, and then within
21:42
Speaker 9: ten days sixty one and a half.
21:44
Speaker 5: Percent of them were at new hives. Totally clear.
21:46
Speaker 8: Yeah, so I'm going to use one of my favorite
21:49
Speaker 8: phrases that I think irritate people. That's interesting but irrelevant
21:53
Speaker 8: because the truth is a lot. And remember, I'm a
22:01
Speaker 8: math person. I used to be an AI person, which
22:03
Speaker 8: is math. I love math, but it tells me what
22:08
Speaker 8: happened in the past, not what's going to happen in
22:10
Speaker 8: the future. And there's so much that can happen in
22:13
Speaker 8: the future, like deals, tariff deals signed not signed, wars
22:19
Speaker 8: not wars, you know, just everyday life. That doesn't necessarily
22:24
Speaker 8: let you with assurance know what's going to happen to
22:27
Speaker 8: your stocks in the future. So I'm I'm cheered by this.
22:32
Speaker 8: If that happens, go whatever, indicator, But I'm not gonna
22:36
Speaker 8: you know, run my money based on it.
22:39
Speaker 9: I was excited last week about It's the swig Martin
22:42
Speaker 9: Swig and the swag breadth thrust indicators.
22:46
Speaker 2: All right, put that out on social media. I'm sure
22:48
Speaker 2: that I got a lot of hits. Kim Forrest, thank
22:49
Speaker 2: you so much for joining us. Chimis founder and chief
22:51
Speaker 2: investment officer of Bouquet Capital Partners.
22:54
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